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APPENDIX E – 2
In the first phase of the study, three evolutionary scenarios have been developed,
focusing on economic, political, social and cultural elements – since future market
development will not be determined by technology alone but rather through the
interplay of a wide range of factors. These scenarios are not intended as predictions–
instead, the intention is to consider the range of possible futures within which mobile
services will develop and operate. The supposition is that different economic,
political, social environments could radically alter the kinds of mobile services
demanded by users. Briefly, the three scenarios considered in this study are:
3. Constant change – development is very uneven, but overall the trend is moderately
positive, characterized by ad hoc growth and recession, often in parallel in different areas
or countries – a strong flux of stop-go progressions and regressions. Slowly, prosperity
increases for many in the EU.
In this survey we are seeking your views on the scenarios and demand for wireless services
that could emerge within them. The estimated time to complete the questionnaire is 20
minutes.
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FMS project Questionnaire Survey page 1 of 9
Confidentiality: Your responses will be kept confidential and no comments will be attributed
to any individual in any reports produced by the study. However, we do ask you to provide
your name and email address so that we can monitor response to the survey and also so that
we can send you a summary report of findings.
No
Smooth development:
Plausible? Yes
No
Comments:
Economic stagnation:
Plausible? Yes
No
Comments:
Constant change:
Plausible? Yes
No
Comments:
1.4 In your opinion, what will be the main factors driving development of mobile
services within each scenario?
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General economic/
financial conditions
Geopolitical stability
Energy prices
Migration
Role of services in
employment
Role of services in survival
1.5 Please comment on other drivers that you think would be important in particular
scenarios:
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2.1 In general terms, how would the market for mobile services be
affected under each scenario?
No change
Decline
No change
Decline
No change
Decline
2.3 The study has identified the following categories of wireless services. Can you identify
other categories that might be in demand in the future?
Simple voice
Text messaging services (eg real-time text-base messaging via the Internet)
Multimedia messaging services (eg combination of photo, video, audio, graphic or text)
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2.4 Within each scenario, for which types of mobile service would you expect to see
increased demand compared with today?
Simple voice
Rich voice
Mobile
Internet/intranet/extranet
Location-based services
Text messaging
Multimedia messaging
Customised infotainment
2.5 In your opinion, which type of mobile service would be in greatest demand to meet the
specific needs of users within each scenario (Please tick one only)
Simple voice
Rich voice
Mobile
Internet/intranet/extranet
Location-based services
Text messaging
Multimedia messaging
Customised infotainment
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2.6 What specific characteristics should the service you have ticked above have to
meet the needs of users within the scenario? (eg very low price, security, etc)
Smooth
development
Economic
stagnation
Constant
change
2.7 Please suggest specific mobile applications that you think would be especially in
demand within each scenario (eg in Economic Stagnation, a very low cost voice service
combined with feature-free handset might best meet user needs)
Smooth
development
Economic
stagnation
Constant
change
2.8 Within each scenario, what percentage of the population would you foresee using each
service type?
Simple voice
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%
Rich voice
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%
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Location-based
<10% <10% <10%
services
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%
Text messaging
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%
Multimedia messaging
<10% <10% <10%
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%
Customised
<10% <10% <10%
infotainment
10-50% 10-50% 10-50%
50-90% 50-90% 50-90%
>90% >90% >90%
Please give any additional comments you may have on demand for particular
2.9
services within each scenario, eg types of user, usage patterns, price sensitivity
With regard to the ‘wild card’ scenarios described (Financial Crash, Man-made
2.10
Disaster), which services do you think there would be increased demand?
Financial Crash
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Man-made Disaster
Which services do you think would be less in demand in these wild card
2.11
situations?
Financial Crash
Man-made Disaster
Can you think of any new services that would be in demand in these
2.12
circumstances?
Financial Crash
Man-made Disaster
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Service developer
Equipment manufacturer
Regulator/government
Market/industry analyst
Regulation
Social/economic/futures research
3.3 Name
Profession
Organisation
Telephone
Email address