Journal

of
Hydrology
ELSEVIER Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163

Assessing the effect of land use change on catchment runoff by

combined use of statistical tests and hydrological modelling: Case
studies from Zimbabwe
Jens Kristian LCrupa'c, Jens Christian Refsgaard a'*, Dominic Mazvimavi b
aDanish Hydraulic Institute, Agern All~ '5, DK-2970 HCrsholm, Denmark
bDepartment of Geography, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP. 167, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe
CDepartment of Hydrodynamics and Water Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Building 115, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark
Received 7 July 1997; revised 5 November 1997; accepted 10 November 1997

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify and assess long-term impacts of land use change on catchment runoff in semi-arid
Zimbabwe, based on analyses of long hydrological time series (25-50 years) from six medium-sized (200-1000 km 2) non-
experimental rural catchments. A methodology combining common statistical methods with hydrological modelling was
adopted in order to distinguish between the effects of climate variability and the effects of land use change. The hydrological
model (NAM) was in general able to simulate the observed hydrographs very well during the reference period, thus providing
a means to account for the effects of climate variability and hence strengthening the power of the subsequent statistical tests.
In the test period the validated model was used to provide the runoff record which would have occurred in the absence of land
use change. The analyses indicated a decrease in the annual runoff for most of the six catchments, with the largest changes
occurring for catchments located within communal land, where large increases in population and agricultural intensity have
taken place. However, the decrease was only statistically significant at the 5 % level for one of the catchments. © 1998 Elsevier
Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords." Land use change; Runoff; Climate variation; Hydrological model; Statistical test; Zimbabwe

I. Introduction that in a number of semi-arid regions this has resulted

1.1. B a c k g r o u n d
The rapidly increasing population pressure in many
rural areas of developing countries has often led to
changes in land use in terms of deforestation, recla-
mation of wetlands, etc. with the aim of increasing
agricultural production. It is generally recognised
* Correspondingauthor. Tel: +45 45769555; fax: +45 45762567;
e-mail: jcr@dhi.dk
in land degradation in terms of soil erosion, reduced
productivity and deterioration of fragile natural eco-
systems (Danida, 1988). Furthermore, land misman-
agement may have inadvertent negative effects on the
hydrological regime, such as increasing occurrence of
floods and decreasing dry season flows. However,
there are fine examples from the tropics where sus-
tained agriculture has prevailed despite increased
population density, for instance the Machakos District
in Kenya (Tiffen et al., 1994).

0022-1694/98/$19.00 © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

PII S0168-1176(97)00311-X
148 J.K. LOrup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163
In the debate among scientists and water resources
managers about the possible impacts on the water
resources of past and ongoing land use changes, it has
become increasingly clear that there is a need for
improved knowledge and quantitative documentation
of the impact of changes in land use and management
practice on land and water resources (ICWE, 1992).
1.2. Impacts of land use change on water resources
1.2.1. Results from experimental catchments
Most of the present knowledge on the effects of
land use change on catchment runoff in Africa
comes from experimental catchment studies. These
have primarily been carried out in East Africa and
southern Africa, and have mainly focused on the
effects of af- and deforestation, see e.g. Edwards
and Blackie (1981), Smith and Scott (1992) and
Andrews and Bullock (1994) for reviews. Despite
these studies, the hydrological effects of land use
change in the tropics are still a cause of controversy
and debate, in particular the effects of conversion of
forest to other types of land use. Lack of a proper
scientific basis for many of the widespread beliefs
and statements about other effects of tropical forests
and of their conversion to alternative land use (e.g.
traditional farming) has lead Hamilton and King
(1983) to talk about the "four M ' s - - m y t h , misinter-
pretation, misinformation, and misunderstanding".
Rarely documented but nevertheless often stated as
general facts are the widespread popular beliefs that
"forests attract rainfall" and that "forests act as a
sponge, whereby roots soak up water in the wet season
and release it slowly in the dry season".
Today it seems, however, scientifically well estab-
lished that, following a clearance of tropical forest
land, there is an increase in the annual runoff
(Bruijnzeel, 1989). The actual increase depends on
numerous factors such as forest type, rainfall regime,
soil type, soil depth and topography (Bosch and
Hewlett, 1982).
Concerning the impact on the dry season flow there
are conflicting statements and evidence. Most of the
catchment studies indicate that the dry season flow is
lower from forested catchments than from other types
of land use. In the Mbeya study (Edwards, 1979) and a
similar recent study in Iringa, Tanzania (Lcrup and
Hansen, 1997), the dry season flow was lower from
catchments with indigenous forest than from catch-
ments with traditional smallholder cultivation, and
in South Africa, Smith and Scott (1992) found that
the low flow was lower from forested catchments
than from comparable non-forested catchments. How-
ever, the opposite conclusion has been reached in a
recent study from semi-arid Tanzania (Sandstrrm,
1995a) and in a number of cited qualitative observa-
tions (e.g. Pereira, 1973; Bonell and Balek, 1993;
Tiffen et al., 1994).
1.2.2. Studies involving use of hydrological models
Onstad and Jamieson (1970) presented one of the
first attempts to use a hydrological model for predict-
ing the effects of land use change on runoff. They
carried out sensitivity analyses to illustrate the hydro-
logical response to various conservation practices.
However, they had no data to validate the model on
situations corresponding to changed land use condi-
tions. Similar approaches have been reported for
catchment studies in Thailand (Storm et al., 1987),
Australia (Hookey, 1987), Belgium (Bultot et al.,
1990), India (Jain et al., 1992) and Tanzania (Sand-
strrm, 1995b), where hydrological models were used
to simulate the effects of assumed or actual land use
changes, but, mostly due to lack of data, without
rigorous model validation.
Kuczera et al. (1993) showed that lumped catch-
ment models must be used carefully as they may fail
to predict the impact of land-use change on catchment
runoff due to limitations in the model conceptualiza-
tion of the hydrological processes involved. There-
fore, rigorous model validation procedures are
required before the model capabilities can be assessed
(Ewen and Parkin, 1996; Parkin et al., 1996).
1.3. The need for further research and the objective
of the present paper
Very few of the experimental catchment studies
carried out in Africa are from semi-arid areas where
water scarcity is most commonly experienced. For
instance, all of the 94 catchment studies (except a
few from North America) included in the review by
Bosch and Hewlett (1982) had a mean annual
precipitation of more than 1100 mm.
Furthermore, the majority of these studies have
been carried out in small (mostly between 1 and
 J.K. LOrupet al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163
500 ha) and often rather steep headwater catchments.
Many of the catchments were often uninhabited or
sparsely populated and with a controlled and often
uniform land use. On the other hand, most land use
changes occur in catchments heavily populated by
farmers and their livestock and often with a mixed
land use and a variety of contrasting topographical
features (hillslopes, plains, wetlands), which experi-
mental catchments seldom contain. Hence, it is not
evident that the results from the small experimental
catchments can be assumed valid when extrapolated
to larger catchments.
Therefore there is clearly a lack of studies focusing
on larger catchments that are densely inhabited by
rural communities and their livestock and where
typical land use changes have occurred and still take
place. The key problem constraining such studies is
the lack of adequate data sets. An exception to the
general lack of appropriate data sets in developing
countries exists in Zimbabwe. The network of
discharge-recording stations was already established
by 1918 and increased significantly in the 1950s.
Significant land use changes, which were reported to
cause soil erosion and land degradation in general,
started at large scale mainly in the 1960s in connec-
tion with increased population pressure (Whitlow,
1988).
In small experimental catchments, the paired catch-
ment approach is often considered the best method to
compensate for climate variability. However, contrary
to small experimental catchments, it will be difficult
to use this approach to analyze hydrological time ser-
ies from 'real life', medium-sized ( 1 0 0 - 2 5 0 0 k m 2)
catchments for a number of reasons:
1. The land use of these catchments is determined by
the rural population living in these areas, thus it is
difficult to identify/select a true control catch-
ment--particularly when using existing data.
2. Due to the extent of the areas covered by such
catchments, it will be difficult to identify catch-
m e n t s - - e v e n neighbouring ones--with similar
amounts and temporal distribution of rainfall.
3. For catchments of this size, it is difficult to iden-
tify adjacent catchments having similar topogra-
phy, geology, soils, shape and size.
Hence, there is a need for the application of a
more comprehensive and rigorous data analyses
149
methodology in order to obtain as much information
as possible from the available data.
The purpose of the present paper is to assess,
quantitatively, the impact of past land use change
on the hydrological regime in semi-arid regions,
based on long-term historical data from ordinary,
non-experimental Zimbabwean catchments. The
study makes use of a comprehensive and rigorous
methodology, based on a combination of hydrological
models and statistical hypothesis testing. In this
context the hydrological model is used to reduce the
'noise' in the hydrological records generated by
climate variability.
2. Study area
2.1. Selected catchments in Zimbabwe
In Zimbabwe, land is classified as being either
commercial farm land, traditionally occupied by
white farmers, or communal land where the rural
African population is living. During past decades
the population and livestock density has generally
not changed significantly on the commercial farm
land, whereas the communal lands have been subject
to significant increases in population and livestock
density, subsequently resulting in changes in land
use and agricultural practices.
Six catchments (Fig. 1) were identified for the
study: Ngezi (C6--1036km2), Nyatsime ( C 2 3 - -
500km2), Mshagashi (E2--541 km2), Popotekwe
(E49--1010 km2), Roswa ( E l 1 4 - - 1 9 7 km2), and
Turgwe ( E l 1 5 - - 2 2 3 k m 2 ) . In the following, they
will be referred to by their Zimbabwean code
numbers: C6, C23, E2, E49, El 14 and E115.
Unfortunately none of the selected catchments are
located in the area in Zimbabwe that is most seriously
affected by land degradation, namely the Save catch-
ment in the southeastern part of the country. All catch-
ments in that area were investigated and their
suitability evaluated. They all had to be disregarded
for two main reasons: (1) most of the catchments had
large reservoirs upstream from the gauging stations,
i.e. the flow was mainly determined by reservoir
operations, or (2) the few catchments that were not
heavily regulated had too short (<20 years) discharge
records.
150 J.K. LCrup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163

E49

E2
El15~
Legend:
Roingoge
Pan. Evopor orlon
Station
Y ~ Discharge Station
•~ River
C~) Catchment
,o 2o~m Boundary
I J

Fig. 1. Location of the six catchments in Zimbabwe.

The percentage of communal land in each of the
catchments as well as the development in population
density in these areas are shown in Table 1. Further-
more the distribution of the various land use classes in
1957/63 and 1982/84/85 are given in Table 2 for C23,
E2, E49 and C6 (only the late period). The prevailing
parent rock is granite in all catchments, which has
given rise to coarse/medium sands or sandy loams
which usually are moderately deep to deep. Areas
with dolerite intrusions usually have deep soils with
a high content of kaolinitic clay. The woodland is
dominated by the two major miombo woodland

Table 1
Changes in population density (persons/km 2) 1962-92 for the communal lands in C6, C23, E2, E49, E l l 4 and E l l 5

Catchment Name of corn- Percentage of 1962 1969 1982 1992 Annual increase
munal land catchment (%)

C6 Ngezi 25 26 31 46 67 3.2
C23 Seke 53 43 64 77 97 2.7
Chiota 35 37 52 65 2.9
E2 Mshagashi 35 14 13 12 13 - 0.3
SSCF a
E49 Chikwanda 13 24 33 41 45 2.1
Serima 21 26 49 45 53 2.4
Zimuto 27 25 28 42 47 2.1
E114 Bikita 100 50-80 87
E115 Bikita and 100 15-30
Ndanga

a Not a communal land, SSCF = Small Scale Commercial Farmland.

 J.K. LOrupet aL/Jo~rnal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163 151

Table 2
Land use and vegetation cover (areal percentages) for C6, C23, E2 and E49 in the reference and the test periods, respectively
Land use class/ C6 C23 E2 E49
vegetation
1984 1957 1985 1963 1982 1963 1982
Cultivation 19 44 50 19 8 29 26
Fallow land 6 < 1 <1 1 9 <1 <4
Dense woodland 10 0 0 0 <1 <1 <1
Medium 35 3 3 29 26 35 26
woodland
Sparse woodland/ 30 42 43 50 56 36 44
grassland
Exotic trees < 1 < 1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1
Swampy/water- < 1 10 3 1 1 <1 <1
logged
Rock outcrops < 1 0 0 <1 <1 <1 <1
Water bodies < 1 < 1 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1

species, Brachystegia spiciformis and Julbernadia
globiflora. In open grassland with high water tables
during the rains, Parinari curatellifolia is common,
while Brachystegia glaucescens are the most c o m m o n
on the more rocky and hilly parts of the catchments
(Timberlake, 1989). C6, E2, E49 and particularly
C23 are almost fiat. In contrast, E l l 5 and the
south-western part of E l l 4 that borders E l l 5 are
steep.
F r o m Table 1, it appears that E2 is located mainly
within the area of commercial land and was there-
fore not expected to have been subject to major
changes in land use or population density. A
major part of E l l 5 consists of rock outcrops and
is sparsely populated. These two catchments were
intended to serve as reference catchments, in particu-
lar for their two neighbouring catchments, E49 and
E114, respectively.
2.2. Data collection
(1:50000) were produced for each catchment, one
map from the late 1950s/early 1960s and one map
from the mid/late 1980s, depending on the availability
of aerial photos and the length of the discharge record.
No aerial photos covering the catchments were avail-
able for the 1990s. The aerial photos were obtained
from the Surveyor-General, along with topographical
maps (1:50 000) and maps with additional information
on land classification (1:1 000000), population den-
sity (1:1 000 000), geology (1:1 000 000) and soils
(1:1 000 000). For some of the catchments, detailed
information on geology was obtained from Zimbabwe
Geological Survey. Detailed information on soils
from Nyatsime (C23) and Ngezi (C6) catchments
was provided by the Department of Research and
Specialist Services, including Anderson (1988).
Information on previous and present cultivation
practice was obtained through interviews with a num-
ber of farmers, staff from agricultural research stations,
and agricultural officers at local Agritex offices.

Daily series of rainfall and monthly series o f pan

evaporation were obtained from the Department o f
Meteorological Services. Records of mean daily dis-
charge as well as information on water rights, exis-
tence and capacity o f reservoirs, weir dimensions,
rating curves and hydrogeological maps (1:500000)
were obtained from the Hydrological Branch.
Detailed information on land use and land use
change was obtained from 1:25000 aerial photos.
Based on the aerial photos two land use maps
3. M e t h o d o l o g y
The overall methodology used in the present study
has been adapted from the generalized methodology
for distinguishing between the effects of human
impact and climate variability derived by Refsgaard
et al. (1989). The different steps o f the methodology
as used here are illustrated in Fig. 2 and are briefly
described in the following sections.
152 J.K. l~rup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163

comprehensive data checking was undertaken before

I Start I
the data were used. Initially, double mass curves were
,5
Collection, processing, and checking drawn, and correlation coefficients, based on annual
Step 1
of data, including calculation of values, were calculated for adjacent rainfall stations to
r Mean Areal Rainfall identify possible major inconsistencies in the data
$ material. Finally, an algorithm adapted from Shaw
(1983), based on standard deviations between station
Selection of periods for modelling and
rainfalls for each month, was used to assess whether
S t e p 21 statistical tests
data from a station for a particular month could be
assumed to be an outlier. The data which on this
basis were not considered reliable were disregarded.
Only data for a few months had to be disregarded (less
Model calibration on one ].
)art of the reference p e d o d l ~ than 2% of the data), and there was no temporal trend
in the amount of disregarded data, i.e. there was no
I
indication that the data quality was changing with
time.
Model validation on I
remaining part of As the N A M model considers the entire catchment
reference pedod
I as one unit, the Mean Areal Rainfall (MAR) is used as
rainfall input to the model. While all the selected rain-
Step 3 ,1, fall stations within and in the nearest neighbourhood

Ivalidation criteria ? of the catchment were used in the data-checking pro-

Model simulation of the
I test period(s)
I - Test for shift
I 1
Fig. 2. Outline of methodology used in this study. It is a modified
version of the general methodology for distinguishing between the
effects of land use change and climate variability presented in
Refsgaard et al. (1989).
3.1. Step 1: Procedures f o r data processing and
checking
As the data did not originate from research catch-
ments, but rather from a routine station network, a
thorough data processing and checking procedure
was undertaken.
Rainfall data were only selected from stations
belonging to the group o f most reliable stations
(E. Martin, pers. comm., 1994). Furthermore,
cedure, only stations having records covering the whole
modelling period were used to calculate MAR, except
from C6 where the rainfall coverage otherwise would
have been too poor. This was decided to ensure con-
sistency in the data input over the whole modelling
period and thereby avoid any bias that a change in the
use o f rainfall stations may have introduced. How-
ever, if a station had only a few months of missing
data, either because the data did not exist or did not
pass the data quality check, the station was still used.
The evaporation data originate from US class A
pans at experimental research stations, and were con-
sidered to be of high quality, which double mass
curves also confirmed. It was also checked whether
any unrealistically high or low values existed in the
data series by comparing the maximum and minimum
values with the 98%-confidence interval on a monthly
basis.
The catchments were identified in close coopera-
tion with the Hydrological Branch. All six stations
have permanent concrete weirs composed of a number
of sections to account for low as well as high flow.
Each of the stations is equipped with automatic water-
level recorders. Except from C6, no anomalies were
found during the data checking. There was a very
clear correlation in the response from neighbouring
catchments.
 J.K. LOrupet al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163
3.2. Step 2: Selection of statistical test type and
testing periods
Two main types of test can be used for analyzing
possible impacts of land use change on hydrological
time series. Monotonic trend tests or tests for shift
(named 'step trend test' in Refsgaard et al. (1989))
can be applied depending on the nature of the land
use change and the length of the hydrological time
series.
In this case, the test for shift was selected, mainly
because one of the key stations (C23) showed a lack of
discharge data for a couple of years in the middle of
the period. Furthermore, by using the test for shift it is
possible to select test periods which are hydrometeor-
ologically comparable, which is important in order not
to be influenced by different behaviours during wet
and dry periods. Finally, the test for shift facilitates
quantitative comparisons. During the selection of the
reference and the test periods (Table 3) the following
general guidelines/criteria were used:
1. The reference period should be as early as possi-
ble, whereas the test period should be as late as
possible.
2. Each of the periods should be as long as possible
to ensure a powerful statistical test, but a compro-
mise has to be made to ensure a sufficiently long
time between the two periods. However, the refer-
ence period should be at least 6 - 1 0 years to allow
for a proper model calibration and validation.
3. As far as possible, the same periods should be
selected for the different catchments to facilitate
more transparent inter-comparisons of the results
from the different catchments.
4. The test period should be selected so that the rain-
fall regime is similar to that of the reference per-
iod.
5. The reference period should represent a combina-
tion of dry, intermediate, and wet years so that the
model is calibrated/validated on a wide spectrum
of the rainfall regime prevailing in the area.
3.3. Step 3: Hydrological modelling
3.3.1. The NAM hydrological model code
The NAM code was selected to carry out the hydro-
logical modelling studies (DHI, 1994). NAM is a
153
traditional hydrological model code of the lumped
conceptual type operating by continuously accounting
for the moisture contents in four mutually interrelated
storages. The NAM was originally developed at the
Technical University of Denmark (Nielsen and
Hansen, 1973), and has been modified and extensively
applied by DHI in a large number of engineering
projects covering all climatic regimes of the world,
including Zimbabwe.
In a previous research project, NAM was success-
fully validated on three different Zimbabwean catch-
ments (Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996). One of the key
conclusions from this study was that for Zimbabwean
conditions, NAM performed just as well as the semi-
distributed WATBAL model (Knudsen et al., 1986)
and the distributed physically-based MIKE SHE
model (Refsgaard and Storm, 1995), provided that a
runoff record with a length of at least 1 year was
available for calibration.
3.3.2. Procedure for model calibration, validation
and application
After the selection of reference and test periods the
modelling procedure generally includes the following
steps for each of the catchments:
1. The reference period is divided into two parts and
the model is set up and calibrated on data from
one of the two parts. The calibration procedure
adopted is that of 'trial and error' implying that
the user has to make subjective adjustments of
parameter values between the calibration runs.
The numerical and graphical performance criteria
described below were used as an important gui-
dance in this process.
2. The model is validated on data from the other part
of the reference period. This validation procedure
corresponds to a traditional split-sample test
(Klemes, 1986) with numerical performance cri-
teria specified beforehand as described below. If
these validation tests are successful, the model can
be assumed to be valid for simulation of the catch-
ment with the land use characteristics prevailing
for the reference period.
3. The validated model is used to simulate runoff for
the full test period using the same parameter
values as were found valid for the reference
period.
 u.

Table 3
Key results from the statistical tests for shift, using the Wilcoxon Rank-Sum test

Catchment Ref. Test Rainfall (mm/year) Qo~ (mm/year) Osim - Qob~ ( m m / y e a r ) Significance level r for H0 (%)
period period
Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev. Rainfall Qo~ aslm - Qo~

Ref, Test Ref. Test Ref. Test Ref, Test Ref. Test Ref. Test
period period period period period period period period period period period period

C6 57-64 77-90 718 740 176 229 50 43 38 56 - 0.2 35 10 50 91 45 11

C23 57-64 77-90 792 796 207 226 141 106 101 115 1.3 65 57 52 97 40 1.9
E2 a 57-65 a 77-90 661 650 152 218 64 62 60 88 - 1.0 4.1 13 34 72 32 50
E2 b 44-55 b 77-90 691 650 304 218 117 61 138 89 8.0 4.1 28 34 76 48 93
E49 60-68 76-91 c 649 673 168 225 69 78 64 96 - 2.1 10 17 20 64 82 28
ElI4 67-75 83-94 d 713 627 330 138 119 48 122 41 - 3.0 6 17 21 87 43 63
Ell5 67-75 83-93 e 857 670 389 232 254 129 214 103 - 3.3 II 46 34 34 15 56

a Data from 1961/62 missing.

b Data from 1947/48 missing.
xt~
c Data from 1978/79 and 1980/81 missing.
d Data from 1991/92 and 1992/93 missing.
e Data from 1985/86 missing.
r T h e value in bold face indicates that H0 is rejected at the 5%-level. O~
 J.K. LOrupet al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163
The early period, i.e. the reference period, was con-
sidered to be the most appropriate period for calibra-
tion/validation as the change in land use was
considered to be rather limited during this period, in
particular compared to later periods.
3.3.3. Performance criteria
To measure the model performance for each test a
standard set of criteria comprising a combination of
three numerical measures and three graphical plots
has been defined:
1. Overall water balance, WB.
2. The coefficient of efficiency, R 2 (Nash and Sut-
cliffe, 1970), based on monthly data.
3. An error index, El, measuring the agreement
between the simulated and observed flow duration
curves (Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996), based on
daily data.
4. Joint plots of the simulated and observed hydro-
graphs.
5. Scatter diagram of monthly runoffs.
6. Flow duration curves.
While the graphical inter-comparisons are excellent
guides in a calibration procedure, they are subjective
in nature and thus cannot be used as formal criteria
in a rigorous model validation test. Therefore, only
the three numerical criteria were used for the
validation tests. On the basis of experience from
a previous study (Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996)
the following performance requirements were spe-
cified beforehand: (1) WB < 10%; (2) R 2 > 0.80;
(3) E1 > 0.70.
This implies that if all three performance criteria
are met during validation tests on a particular catch-
ment, the model is assumed valid for that catchment
corresponding to the catchment characteristics exist-
ing during the reference period. If the model fails for
all criteria, it cannot be assumed valid, and if it fails
for one or two criteria, the specific circumstances have
to be evaluated, before it can be decided whether the
model can be assumed valid or not.
3.4. Step 4: Statistical tests
Following the modelling, the statistical tests for
shift were carded out for the following three vari-
ables: Qsim - Qobs, the difference between simulated
155
and observed annual runoff; Qobs, the observed annual
runoff and P, the annual rainfall.
The noise due to climate variability was attempted
to be removed through the modelling. By using model
parameters valid for the land use conditions of the
earlier reference period, estimates of the changes in
runoff due to land use changes could be found by
comparing the simulated flows during the test period,
Qsim, with the actually recorded flows during this
period, Qobs. Thus, Qsim - Qobs was considered the
key variable for testing the effects on catchment run-
off caused by land use change in the statistical
analyses. The tests were carried out as classical
hypothesis-testing of hydrologic time-series. The
null hypothesis, H0 is that no trend exists in the tested
variables. The tests were carried out as two-sided tests
of H0 with the alternative hypothesis, H 1, that a trend
exists in either direction.
H0 implies that the means of the two periods are
equal. As the test variables--especially Qobs--may
not be normally distributed, the distribution-free
Wilcoxon Rank-Sum test (also called the Mann-
Whitney test) was considered more appropriate than
the Student's t-test, as the latter lacks power when
applied to non-normal data (Kendall and Stuart,
1979; Hirsch et al., 1993) and even when the assump-
tion of the t-test is met, the minimum efficiency of the
Wilcoxon Rank-Sum test is as high as 86% relative to
the t-test (Bradley, 1968).
4. Results
4.1. Model validation performance
The results from the model validation tests for each
of the catchments are summarized in Table 4. For E2,
values for two validation periods are given. Except for
C23, where only two of the criteria are met, all three
validation performance criteria are met, and in most
cases the test variables are considerably above the
validation criteria, indicating that the model generally
performs very well.
The overall water balance (WB) errors for the
validation periods are relatively low. However,
some of the WB-values, as for C23, are a result of
considerable annual deviations, which is reflected in
the relatively high standard deviation of Qsim - Qobs in
156 J.K. LOrup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163

Table 4
Summary of the model validation performance for each of the six catchments
Test variable Validation C6 C23 E2-Vlb E2_V2b E49 Ell4 a Ell5
criteria
WB (%) < 10 1.9 2.1 4.9 6.8 4.7 0.6 7.0
R2 > 0.8 0.86 0.67 c 0.96 0.94 0.85 0.86 0.87
E1 > 0.7 0.73 0.81 0.90 0.84 0.85 -- 0.84
a E1 could not be calculated as only monthly discharge data were available for the validation period.
b For E2, calibration was carried out for 1957-60, while two different validation tests were carried out, 1961-65 (V1) and 1944-55 (V2).
c This was the only test value which did not meet the pre-specified performance criteria.

Table 3. It should also be noted that in two cases, for
C6 and E l l 5 , the model had to be re-calibrated,
because the WB-criteria were not met. For these two
catchments the model validations are hence
considered to be weaker than for the other four
catchments.
The model generally simulated the dynamics of
the observed hydrographs very w e l l - - b o t h for wet
and dry years. In Fig. 3(a,b) the corresponding
observed and simulated hydrographs for E2 and C23
are shown for a relatively wet (62/63) and relatively
dry (63/64) year. Fig. 3(a) represents one of the
best similarities between simulated and observed
hydrographs, while Fig. 3(b) represents one of the
poorest performances. However, even for the 'poorest
case' the flow dynamics are reasonably well
simulated.
The relatively high values of E1 indicate that the
model simulations also resulted in a good description
of the overall flow regime. The high values of R 2
(except for C23) indicate that there is a good
correspondence between observed and simulated
monthly runoffs as well. The relatively poor perfor-
mance for C23 is mainly due to the two months of
December 1962 and February 1963, cf. Fig. 3(b).
Thus, if these two months had been excluded from
the calculation of R 2, C23 would also meet all three
validation criteria.
For E2, the test results for the second validation
period ( 1 9 4 4 - 5 5 ) are almost as good and almost
equal to the test results for the first validation period
(1960-65).
Because of the good validation performance, a s i m -
Qobs was considered to be valid as the key test variable
for assessing the impact o f land use change on the
catchment runoff.
4.2. Results o f the statistical tests
The results of the tests for shift are presented in
Table 3. The results are two-sided tests of the null-
hypothesis, H0, and the percentages give the signi-
ficance level. For E2 the test period (1977-90) is
compared with both the first ( 1 9 5 7 - 6 5 ) and the
second ( 1 9 4 4 - 5 5 ) reference period.
From Table 3, it appears that the mean annual
rainfall is similar in both periods for most of the catch-
ments, which was also the aim when the periods were
selected. Other things being equal, the similarities in
rainfall regime between the periods increase the
strength of the statistical tests.
The statistical tests o f the raw data, i.e. annual rain-
fall (P) and annual observed runoff (Qobs), show that
for neither P nor Qobs is there any statistically signifi-
cant difference between their means in the reference
and the test periods. The significance level for Qobs is
lowest for E115 which is probably due to the fact that
this catchment has the largest difference in annual
rainfall between the two periods. This illustrates the
problem arising when statistical tests are applied
directly to the observed runoff records: Is the differ-
ence due to human impacts or does the difference just
reflect that the test period was drier than the reference
p e r i o d - - a l t h o u g h no significant difference in the rain-
fall between the two periods was found? Thus, the
statistical tests will be very sensitive to the periods
that are selected for a given test.
When the key test variable, Qsim - Qobs is examined,
it appears that for C23, Qsim - Qobs is significantly
larger in the test period than during the reference
period. For the other catchments there is no statisti-
cally significant difference between the test and the
reference period regarding Osim - Oobs. However, the
 J.K. LOrupet al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (199.8) 147-163
significance level varies considerably between the
catchments. E2 has a very high significance level,
both when the test period is compared to the first
(1957-64) and the second (1944-55) reference peri-
ods. This was, however, expected, as E2 was selected
as a control catchment because it is almost exclusively
situated within commercial land area where only
minor changes in population density and land use
have occurred (cf. Tables 1 and 2). On the other
hand, E49, the neighbouring catchment of E2, has a
much lower significance level. Sixty percent of E49 is
located within communal lands where, contrary to E2,
there has been a considerable increase in the popula-
tion density since the start of the reference period (cf.
Table 1).
For C6, the significance level for Qsim - Qobs is only
11%. However, some major inconsistencies between
the temporal dynamics of the observed and simulated
hydrographs were detected during the last years of the
test period for C6. Furthermore, C6 is the only catch-
ment where it was not possible to use the same rainfall
stations throughout the period considered. Thus, the
result for C6 might be subject to much larger uncer-
tainties than the results from the other catchments and
will therefore not be included in the discussion of the
results below.
5. Discussion and conclusions
5.1. Changes in land use and population density and
impacts on catchment runoff
5.1.1. Changes in population density and land use
From Table l, it is seen that there has been a con-
siderable increase in the population density in the
communal lands located inside the study catchments,
with a population growth rate per year ranging from
2.1 to 3.2%, which is slightly lower than the average
value of 3.6% (1969-79) within communal lands in
Zimbabwe during 1969-79 (Whitlow, 1979). This
considerable increase in population has however not
resulted in any substantial increase in the cultivated
area between 1957/63 and 1982/85.
Generally the changes in the different land use
categories have been minor during the 20-30 year
period covered in Table 2 and lower than could be
expected on the basis of the considerable population
157
growth. While medium woodland occupies a consid-
erable part of C6, E2 and E49, it is almost absent in
C23, which probably is a combination of the high
population density and a low percentage of non-arable
land in C23. There has also been an appreciable
decrease in swampy areas in C23, which have been
cultivated.
However, although there has not been any dramatic
change in the percentages of the cultivated areas, it
should be emphasized that changes in management
practices within this land use category have taken
place, as briefly discussed below. Thus, when asses-
sing the impacts of the land use changes one should
not focus only on the percentages of the various land
use categories, but also on the changes in crops and
other management aspects.
5.1.2. The magnitude of the changes in annual runoff
and flow regime
For the catchment, E2, located within commercial
land, which has not experienced any change in popu-
lation density within the last 30 years, no indication of
any changes in annual runoff was observed. For one of
the other catchments, C6, the reliability and consis-
tency of the available data could be questioned. For
the other four catchments characterized by 60-100%
coverage of communal land with population growth
ranging from 2.1 to 3.2% per year, indications of a
slight decrease in runoff was seen. This was only
statistically significant for the catchment with the
highest population density, C23. As mentioned pre-
viously, decreases in runoff due to land use changes
can be estimated by comparing the simulated flows
during the test period, Qsim--using model parameters
valid for the reference period--with the actually
recorded flows during this period, Qobs. In Table 3,
this corresponds to the changes in the mean value of
Qsim - Qobs from the reference period to the test per-
iod, i.e. 66 mm/year for C23, zero for E2 (average of
+5 and -4), 12 ram/year for E49, 9 mm/year for E114
and 14 mm/year for E115.
The magnitude of changes in Qsim - Qobs between
the different catchments is clearly illustrated in Fig. 4,
where the flow duration curves during the test period
are shown for the two catchments with the most
extreme behaviour: (a) E 2 - - a l m o s t no communal
land, (b) C 2 3 - - 9 0 % communal land. The curves for
Qobs and Qsim are almost identical for E2, although the
158 J.K. L~rup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163

.-. E 2 E2QOB81
E2QIIm
..... R U N O F F , m3hleC

............ J~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
70.0 1

80.0
!
I
50.0

40.0

30.0 -

20.0 -

10.0+ l I+ )i

0,0-
Nov o~c ,~. ' ~. ' .,~ '~ ",^, %ud'"'+L ' ^u~ ' ~ ' oct ' NOV' o~ I "~ ' ~" ' " ' '~" ' "" (a)

1962 1963 1964

C~l Qlilt
IIIJIIOFF,
'IN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

t
_

•- -.._
C~A L.~r
JAN I FE:8 MAR N=R I MAY I dUN I JIM. I AUG [ SI~ I OCT I NOV I DEC "F'~'dAN FEB MAR APII MAY

1962 1963 1964 (b)

Fig. 3. Observed and simulated average daily discharges for a relatively dry and a relatively wet year during the validation period from (a) the
Mshagashi (E2) catchment, and (b) the Nyatsime (C23) catchment.

Qobs-CUrve is slightly below the Qsim-Curve for flows been the same as during the reference period, asim, is
below 1 m3/s. On the other hand, the curve for Qobs is due to a general decrease in Qobsfor low, medium, and
considerably below the Qsim-Curve for C23 for all flow high flows.
regimes. Thus, for C23, the difference between the The difference between Qob`iand Qsim for high flows
actually observed discharges during the test period, for E2--corresponding to approx, only 1 day per
Qobs, and the discharges expected if the land use had y e a r - - i s probably a combination of poor estimation
 J.K. L~rup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163 159

200 (a)
f i I
100 • li f

j --Qsim
i ] r
Qobs
~.,
t,D
lO
................. i...... i ! i
I
T
!
v
E
(1)
I
I
0
E)

Ol . . . .

0.01
0.10 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
,1 80 90 95

% of time discharge exceeded

200 i ! ] I (b)
100
i
...... ......... i ..................

•
J
!
i
~
'
E
,
Qsim
i i Qobs
- ,-~--~ -
I i i
V
°
0
t~

0.1

0.01
0.1 1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95
% of time discharge exceeded
Fig. 4. Flow duration curves for observed and simulated average daily discharges for the test periods of (a) E2 and (b) C23. The simulated
discharges represent the expected discharge if the land use from the reference period had still existed.
160 J.K. LOrup et al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163
of Qobs (caused by extreme peak flows exceeding the
weir capacity) and poor modelling of these flows
rather than a real change in the very high flow regime.
Also, the increasing difference between the Qobs and
Qsim in both E2 and C23 for decreasing flows below
0.05 m3/s may be partly due to the fact that the NAM
model operates with an idealized linear groundwater
reservoir.
5.1.3. Relation between the results and land use
changes
There may be several explanations for the tendency
of a decrease in annual runoff for all the study catch-
ments, except E2. First of all, it should be emphasized
that although there has been a considerable increase in
the population, this has not resulted in major changes
in the percentage of each land use type. Thus, the
changes in the land use categories (cf. Table 2) cannot
explain an increased evapotranspiration. Secondly,
the decrease in annual runoff is only around 10 mm
for most of the catchments when comparing the early
and late parts of the study period. Thus, only relatively
small changes in the vegetation cover and crop pat-
terns have to occur to explain such an increase in the
actual annual evaporation. In the 1960s, a 4-year crop
rotational period consisting of maize, maize, ground-
nuts and finger millet was common, while monocul-
ture of maize is more common today and sunflower
has also become a common crop. As maize and sun-
flower have a higher water requirement than e.g.
finger millet, this may have resulted in an increased
evapotranspiration from the cultivated fields.
One of the major causes of the increase in surface
runoff in semi-arid Zimbabwe is soil compaction and
reduced infiltration rates related to overgrazing
(Whitlow, 1983; Campbell, 1994). Even so, there
has not been any significant increase in the livestock
number within the last 15 years, among other things
due to the severe droughts in 1981-83 and 1991-92.
Also, owing to the increasing demand for land to cul-
tivate, areas previously grazed are now used for culti-
vation. Thus, if the infiltration conditions in such areas
change, they may improve rather than deteriorate.
Results from many of the soil erosion plot studies in
Zimbabwe indicated that rainfall and soil moisture
status were more important factors than vegetation
cover in relation to runoff production (H.A. Elwell,
pers. comm., 1996).
Also, the effect of the extension of cultivated land
on runoff production, will greatly depend on what the
land has been used for previously. Crusting is a com-
mon phenomenon on the sandy to sandy loamy soils
prevailing in the catchments and is often seen in the
open woodland with limited ground cover. Loosening
of these soils when cultivated may help increasing the
infiltration rate in such areas.
According to most previous studies and wide-
spread views, surface runoff and catchment runoff
in general is expected to increase over time from
catchments located in communal areas. However,
this is often based on very limited empirical evi-
dence. In a study of the upper Save catchment, Du
Toit (1985) concluded that the annual runoff during
the 1970s was greater than that experienced during
the 1950s, and ascribed this increase in annual run-
off to vegetation clearance within communal areas.
However, the study was based only on regression
analysis and only a single rainfall station was used
to represent the upper Save catchment (3550 km2).
Most of the comments by Whitlow (1983), e.g.
"With our rivers turned into torrents of sediment-
laden water, all prospects of improving living stan-
dards, especially of rural populations, will disap-
pear. They, literally, will be washed away
downstream", were not based on quantitative doc-
umentation. The numerous soil erosion plot studies
carried out have improved our knowledge of the
effects of cultivation practice on soil erosion and
surface runoff, e.g. Elwell (1994), but the validity
of these results at the basin level has never been
ascertained.
Despite the significant increase in population
density, there was no indication of increased
surface runoff in the six catchments. This is in
contrast to the often repeated statements that a
significant increase in population density in rural
Africa will eventually result in increased surface run-
off and severe land degradation. Areas where this
statement is true certainly exist, but the present
study shows that such statements should not be used
as a generally valid cause-and-effect conclusion.
Doing so, would contribute to creation of more
'myths, misinterpretation, misinformation and misun-
derstanding' than already exists concerning the effect
on catchment runoff from human impact and land
utilization.
 J.K. LOrupet al./Journal of Hydrology 205 (1998) 147-163
5.2. General applicability of the proposed
methodology
The hydrological model was generally able to
simulate the observed discharges well, and this
resulted in a significant reduction of the noise caused
by climatic variability. Thus, the power of the suc-
ceeding statistical tests increased considerably when
Qsim - Qobs, instead of Qobs, was used as the key test
variable. Also, misinterpretation of the test results, for
instance caused by changes in the rainfall regime, was
avoided.
Thus, the methodology presented in this study may
be a viable method to assess the effects of land use
change on catchment runoff in non-experimental,
medium-sized catchments, where the major part of
the rural population in Africa lives. For such catch-
ments the paired catchment approach w i l l - - f o r
reasons given earlier--seldom be applicable, and
statistical tests alone, including traditional regression
analysis, are not able to distinguish between effects
on the water resources caused by land use change
and by climatic variability/climate change. The com-
bined use of hydrological modelling and statistical
tests will therefore make it possible to assess the
impacts of past land use changes in catchments
where long (at least 2 0 - 3 0 years) discharge records
and concurrent rainfall and evaporation data are
available.
Furthermore, the methodology can be a powerful
tool to monitor and evaluate the possible impacts of
future land use changes. For instance, most of the
ongoing or planned watershed management projects,
resettlement schemes or other development activities
with large potential impacts on water resources
include no solid assessment of the actual effects. If
it is possible to identify representative catchments
included in such projects that have 5 - 1 0 years of
existing hydrometeorological records or if data
collection can be initiated in the planning stage,
then the method will provide a good opportunity to
monitor the actual effects on the flow regime caused
by such activities.
Finally, the method may be an alternative to the
paired catchment approach in experimental catchment
studies, Thus, if it is possible during the pre-treatment
period to obtain a correlation coefficient between the
simulated and the observed discharges that is equal to
161
or better than the correlation coefficient between the
observed discharges from the 'treatment' catchment
and the control catchment, then simulated dis-
charges--based on the parameter set up from the
pre-treatment period--can be used in the
treatment period to compensate for climate effects
instead of observed discharges from the control
catchment.
Overall, it can be concluded that the combined use
of hydrological modelling and traditional statistical
tests greatly improves the ability to analyze the impact
of land use on catchment runoff compared to using
only statistical tests.
Acknowledgements
During data collection and field reconnaissance in
Zimbabwe, kind help and assistance were provided by
the Hydrological Branch, Ministry of Energy, Water
Resources and Development; Department of Meteor-
ological Services; Chemistry and Soil Research
Institute; and the Department of Soil Science, Univer-
sity of Zimbabwe. The funding for this study was
provided by the Danish Council for Development
Research. The careful reviews and good suggestions
of the two referees are gratefully acknowledged.
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