2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race?

- The New York Times

255 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY

Which Democrats Are Leading the

2020 Presidential Race?
By Jasmine C. Lee, Annie Daniel, Rebecca Lieberman, Blacki Migliozzi, Alexander Burns and
Sarah Almukhtar
Updated Feb. 21, 2020

Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and
analysis to track how the eight Democratic presidential candidates are
doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the
2020 nomination.

Overview Polls Campaign Money News Coverage

Current State of the Race

Qualified for NAT. POLLING DELEGATES INDIVIDUAL WEEKLY MEDIA

the Feb. 25 CONTRIB.†
debate*

Sanders 28% 21 $95.9m #1

Biden 16% 6 $60.8m #2

Bloomberg 15% — — #5

Warren 13% 8 $71.1m #6

Buttigieg 10% 22 $76.2m #3

Klobuchar 7% 7 $25.3m #4

Steyer 2% — $2.9m #7

Gabbard < 1% — $10.0m #8

+ View all candidates

* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Dec. 31, 2019.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Hereʼs the latest.

Feb. 21, 2020

Bernie Sanders is looking more and more like the clear front-
runner, as he steadily adds to his support while the rest of the
field remains divided.

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2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? - The New York Times

Mr. Sanders has the support of nearly three in 10 Democratic

voters nationwide — a strong faction, though not an
overwhelming plurality. It has become a more convincing
advantage, however, in a race in which no other candidate
has emerged as a focal point for opposition to Mr. Sanders.
Between the rise of Michael R. Bloomberg and the recent
plunge of Joseph R. Biden Jr., there are now four candidates
polling in the low- to mid-teens, and no one besides Mr.
Sanders with support above 20 percent.

So far, there is little evidence of a national surge for either

Pete Buttigieg, who essentially tied with Mr. Sanders in Iowa
and nearly matched him in New Hampshire, or Amy
Klobuchar, who became a surprise third-place finisher in
New Hampshire. Both have ticked up slightly, but they are
still running behind all the other major candidates.

That picture may or may not hold for long: Our national
polling average does not reflect any impact from the most
recent debate in Nevada, where Mr. Bloomberg struggled
badly and Elizabeth Warren delivered what was seen as her
strongest performance of the campaign. And the Nevada
caucuses this weekend have the potential to boost Mr.
Sanders further.

Mr. Sanders’s rivals may be running out of time to catch up. If

his current advantage persists until the Super Tuesday
primaries on March 3, there is a chance he could take a
decisive lead in the delegate count.

Still, there are reasons to believe the race may not be over
anytime soon. Scattered polling in the Super Tuesday states
has found Mr. Biden fairly resilient in places with large
African-American populations, leaving him a plausible path
to a comeback. Ms. Klobuchar and Ms. Warren have both
reported a huge influx of money after their recent debate
victories, suggesting there is still a sizable well of online fund-
raising available to candidates besides Mr. Sanders. And of
course, money is no object for Mr. Bloomberg, a billionaire
who is financing his own campaign.

But Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign is also facing an awkward

reality: His candidacy was supposed to be a bulwark against
Mr. Sanders, but so far its main effect has been to fragment
the moderate wing of the party. To overtake Mr. Sanders, he

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2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? - The New York Times

will need to close hard in the Super Tuesday states, and that
almost certainly means performing far better in next week’s
South Carolina debate.

— Alexander Burns

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Data through Feb. 20

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. Thatʼs even
truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states
voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important,
offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

National Polling Average

Candidate polling average Individual polls shown on hover

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2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? - The New York Times

30%
Sanders
28%

20%

Biden
16%
Bloomberg
15%
Warren
13%
10%
Buttigieg
10%

Jan. 2019 March May July Sept. Nov. Jan. 2020

Latest National Polls

POLLSTER DATE SANDERS BIDEN BLOOMBERG WARREN BUTTIGIEG
ABC News/ Feb. 14- 32% 16% 14% 12% 8%
Washington Post 17
NBC News/ Feb. 14- 27 15 14 14 13
Wall Street Journal 17
Feb. 13-
NPR 16 31 15 19 12 8

Quinnipiac Feb. 5-9 25 17 15 14 10

Monmouth Feb. 6-9 26 16 11 13 13

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Feb. 21 in previous election cycles ...

PRIMARY POLLING LEADER EVENTUAL NOMINEE?

2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton

2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump

2012 Republicans Rick Santorum

2008 Democrats Barack Obama

2008 Republicans John McCain

Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too. The next two states
to vote are Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Nevada and South Carolina

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S.C. Nev.
FEB. 9-19 JAN. 8-11

Sanders 19% 18%

Biden 24 19
Bloomberg — —
Warren 6 11
Buttigieg 7 8
Klobuchar 4 4
Steyer 15 8
Gabbard 1 1

Sources: Winthrop University (South Carolina poll), USA Today/Suffolk (Nevada poll)

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Data through Dec. 31, 2019

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidatesʼ ability to

compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of
money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy
individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small
increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial

enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a
larger army of supporters. Candidates will begin filing every month
beginning Feb. 20. See full fund-raising numbers from the final quarter
of 2019 here »

CONTRIBUTIONS, CONTRIBUTIONS,
OCT.-DEC. JULY-SEPT.
Sanders $34.4m $25.2m
Buttigieg $24.7m $19.1m
Biden $23.2m $15.7m

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2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? - The New York Times
CONTRIBUTIONS, CONTRIBUTIONS,
OCT.-DEC. JULY-SEPT.
Warren $21.3m $24.6m
Klobuchar $11.4m $4.8m
Gabbard $3.5m $3.0m
Steyer $0.9m $2.0m
Bloomberg — —

Mr. Bloomberg, who joined the race after the third quarter filing deadline, is running a self-
funded campaign and is not accepting contributions from donors. Other candidates in the
chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting
deadline. Current numbers are as of the Jan. 31 filing deadline. The next filing deadline is Feb.
20. · Source: Federal Election Commission

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Data through Feb. 19

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidateʼs ability to make news and draw the attention of voters —

and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks
which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps
drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the
wider media.

Being talked about isnʼt always a good thing: It can also mean a
candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information
from his or her past.

Total Mentions Since 2019

CNN FOX NEWS MSNBC
Biden 82,914
Sanders 39,063
Warren 33,275
Buttigieg 16,028
Klobuchar 7,369

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2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? - The New York Times
CNN FOX NEWS MSNBC
Bloomberg 6,791
Steyer 3,546
Gabbard 2,457

Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidateʼs full name is mentioned on
any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found
here. · Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project.

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THE CANDIDATES

Hereʼs whoʼs running for president in 2020.

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18 questions. 21 Democrats. Hereʼs what they said.

20 (More) Questions With Democrats

ELECTION CALENDAR

The 2020 primary process is already underway. These are the

important dates.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE

See which Democrats spent the most at the end of 2019.

Detailed donor maps show whoʼs powering the Democratic

campaigns.

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A COLLECTION OF OUR LATEST STORIES

Get the latest news on the 2020 race.

Key Dates

2020
Feb. 22 Nevada Democratic caucuses
Feb. 29 South Carolina Democratic primary

March 3 Super Tuesday

July 13-16 Democratic National Convention

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2/22/2020 Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race? - The New York Times

Nov. 3 Election Day

View our full election calendar »

Note: Reuters was removed from the D.N.C.ʼs approved pollster list for the September debate, but its
earlier polls are still included for consistency.

Sources: Polling data from ABC News/The Washington Post, Reuters, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac
University, Fox News, USA Today/Suffolk, University of New Hampshire, CBS News/YouGov, CNN, The Des
Moines Register, NBC News/The Wall Street Journal, Winthrop University, NPR, NBC News/Marist.
Historical primary polling data from RealClearPolitics. Campaign finance data from Federal Election
Commission. News media mentions data from Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT
Project.

Additional reporting contributed by Rachel Shorey.

Correction: Feb. 13, 2020

An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the Nevada Democratic caucuses this month. It
is Feb. 22, not Feb. 20.

Correction: Feb. 13, 2020

An earlier version of this article misstated the time frame of news mentions per candidate. The
mentions are since 2019, not in 2019.

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