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Sales normalization kicks in, major event due today! Tuesday, March 05, 2019
Automobile Performance We preview auto sales for the month of Feb’19 where we expect normalization in
overall trend in sales for the industry on a sequential basis (‐10% MoM to 20.3k
3M 6M 12M
units) as January effect subsides.
Absolute % ‐2% ‐22% ‐38%
On a cumulative basis, volumes are expected to decline by 4% YoY in 8MFY19 to 163k
Relative to KSE % ‐3% ‐17% ‐29% units, mainly dragged by PSMC (down 11%YoY).
Source: PSX, BMA Research
A major development on auto sales is set to unfold this week. National Assembly
(NA) is expected to convene today wherein partial overturn of ban on purchase of car
by non‐filer is expected. We expect the relief to remain limited to 800cc (in‐line with
Senate Committee recommendations).
We reiterate the need of another round of price increase by local OEMs in order to
pass the impact of Dec'18 devaluation and highlight further currency weakness as
Autos sector vs KSE‐100 Index risk to margins.
AUTOMOBILE ASSEMBLER We maintain our liking for INDU with DCF‐based TP of PKR1,550/sh driven by strong
20% KSE100 Index balance sheet and gross margins, diversified product portfolio and superior dividend
10% yield of 8%.
0%
‐10% Volumes to normalize in Feb'19 as Jan effect subsides: We preview auto sales for Feb’19
‐20% where we expect volumes for passenger cars and LCVs to normalize as seasonal January
‐30% effect subsides. Overall we expect volumes for the month to clock in at 20.3k units,
‐40% (slightly above FY19 monthly avg. run rate of 20.1k units) down 10/10% MoM/YoY). PSMC
‐50% has unexpectedly put up a good show where sales are expected to outperform the
Jul‐18
Oct‐18
Feb‐18
Mar‐18
Apr‐18
May‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
Sep‐18
Nov‐18
Dec‐18
Jan‐19
Feb‐19
industry volumes with a decline of 6% MoM vis‐à‐vis 10% MoM drop in industry's
volumes. On the other hand, INDU and HCAR are expected to record decline of 12% and
16% MoM, respectively. Sales for INDU are expected to remain in line with monthly avg. of
Source: PSX, BMA Research
5,554 units during Feb'19, however, HCAR sales are expected to slowdown to 3,800 units
(FY19 monthly avg. of 4,114 units).
On a cumulative basis, we expect industry sales to decline by 4% YoY in 8MFY19 to 163k
Valuation snapshot units, mainly dragged by PSMC followed by HCAR, where volumes are expected to decline
by 11% and 3% YoY, respectively. On the other hand, INDU continues to emerge on top
P/E D/Y beating the industry with cumulative sales growth of 9% YoY in 8MFY19.
Scrips TP *M/S
(x) (%)
Provisional auto sales for Feb'19
INDU 1,550 DCF/BUY 8.6 8%
Feb'19 Jan'19 MoM YoY 8MFY19 YoY
HCAR 250 DCF/Neutral 10.5 4% PSMC 11,000 11,746 ‐6% ‐16% 85,903 ‐11%
PSMC 209 DCF/UP 17.4 2%
HCAR 3,800 4,518 ‐16% ‐16% 32,596 ‐3%
*M: Method S: Stance
INDU 5,500 6,249 ‐12% 8% 44,380 9%
Source: PSX, BMA Research
Industry 20,300 22,513 ‐10% ‐10% 162,879 ‐4%
Source: BMA Research
An important development set to unfold on auto sales: Today, on 5th‐Mar'19 at 4:00pm,
the National Assembly (NA) is expected to convene a session to discuss and potentially
approve The Finance Supplementary (Second Amendment) Bill 2019. Just to recall,
government had initially imposed a ban on non‐filers from purchase of new vehicles in
Budget 2019. The government, however, realized ineffectiveness of the measure as tally
of individuals filing tax returns has not seen any considerable change. Later on, the
Faiz Ul Sultan government through Second Amendment proposed to partially lift the ban for engine size
Faiz.sultan@bmacapital.com of up to 1,300cc, whereas, the Senate Committee has toned down the proposal to engine
+9221‐111‐262‐111 Ext: 2006 size of up to 800cc. We expect the proposal of Senate Committee to see the light of day
REP‐005
BMA Capital Management Ltd. 801 Unitower, I.I.Chundrigar Road, Karachi, 74000, Pakistan For further queries, please contact:
bmaresearch@bmacapital.com or call UAN: 111‐262‐111
www.jamapunji.pk
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and reiterate PSMC as the sole beneficiary of the measure as the company is in the
process of launching of new Alto 660cc. Sales of cars below 1000cc engine accounts for
~53% of company's total sales. Though, we contend that positives seem priced in stock
price of PSMC post recent out‐performance of 54%.
Upside in volumes estimates seen: Strong monthly avg. run rate of 20.1k units during
FY19 has opened upside risk to our sales estimates. Looking at current volumes for
8MFY19 and assuming the monthly avg. to remain in the same range, sales volume are
expected to close FY19 with a decline of 4‐5% YoY vs. our estimate of 10% drop in FY19.
On a standalone basis, INDU is expected to see major revision where we estimated 20%
YoY decline in FY19E volumes (actual growth of 9% YoY in 8MFY19). We await
management guidance before revising our estimates, however, we highlight that every
10% increase in volumes improve earnings of INDU by 6% over our base case.
Investment perspective: We highlight risks on demand for the auto sector emanating
from rising interest rate and prevailing weak economic fundamentals. Recent positive
measures in terms of regulating used car imports and proposed relief on non‐filer
purchase of new vehicle (up to 1,300cc in recent supplementary budget, yet to be
endorsed by National Assembly) points toward relief on demand side and consequent
improvement in pricing power. Having said that, post recent strong price performance by
PSMC and HCAR, we are of the view that potential positives are priced in. We see
possibility of INDU shedding its stock price underperformance vis‐à‐vis peers. We
reiterate our Buy stance on INDU with a DCF‐based TP of PKR1,550/sh offering an upside
of 21% along with a dividend yield of 8%.
Key risks: Key risks to our call are; (i) sharp hike in interest rates, (ii) frequent and higher
than expected movements in exchange rate, and (iii) higher than anticipated rise in steel
prices.
BMA Capital Management Ltd. 801 Unitower, I.I.Chundrigar Road, Karachi, 74000, Pakistan For further queries, please contact:
bmaresearch@bmacapital.com or call UAN: 111‐262‐111
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target return for the year. A table presenting BMA’s rating definitions is given below:
Buy >20% expected total return
Neutral 0%‐20% expected total return
Underperform <0% expected total return
*Total stock return = capital gain + dividend yield
Old rating system
Overweight Total stock return > expected market return + 2%
Marketweight Expected market return ± 2%
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To arrive at our period end target prices, BMA Capital uses different valuation methodologies including
• Discounted cash flow (DCF, DDM)
• Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.)
• Equity & Asset return based methodologies (EVA, Residual Income etc.)