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Pakistan Cement Sector
21 December 2018 Pakistan Cements
Exports‐ New avenues, modest margins in the offing
Regional cement/clinker export market We take a detailed overview of changing global cement demand/supply scenario and its
Current imports (mn impact on Pakistan’s export potential. Our findings are based on a series of discussions
Countries
tons) with local and international cement players and our recent visit to Pakistan’s first ever
Bangladesh 18.0 international cement conference, InterCem 2018, held in Lahore. We see encouraging
prospects for Pakistan cement exports, driven primarily by new regulations, geo‐politics,
Sri Lanka 6.0
emerging supply/demand dynamics in major cement centers, and anticipated global
Afghanistan 4.1 cement demand growth of 3% (3‐yr CAGR). This is further supported by low freight cost,
Yemen 3.0 location advantage, supportive infrastructure, and the new government’s eagerness to
boost exports (~USD400mn export potential). Our analysis suggests regional export
Nepal 2.9
opportunity may allow Pakistan to lift its exports by as much as 17% over 5‐yrs (CAGR),
India 1.7 accounting for 30% of capacity additions. 5MFY19 data shows a strong uptrend in
Others 4.1 exports (up 43% YoY) with significant order book in hand until Mar’19.
Total imports 39.9 Major investment in cement sector: Investment cycle in cement industry has picked up
Pakistan’s share as pace following strong demand and subsequent high load factors. We eye cumulative 41mn
12%
% of total (FY18) tons supply addition over FY17A‐FY23E. Overall, 10mn tons planned capacity addition is,
Source: BMA Research however, at risk of delays/cancellation. Taking into account domestic demand, we
calculate an excess capacity of 25‐29mn tons by 2022 for Pakistan’s cement sector. That
Pakistan has the lowest cement prices in
the region (USD/ton) said, the industry is expected to utilize the exports market (although mainly low margin
Countries Cement Retail Price
clinker based) to achieve economies of scale.
Nepal 131‐138 #1 Global dynamics are supportive: We map major cement markets and conclude:
India 100‐102 China’s recent shutdown of 220mn tons capacity made it a net cement importer;
Bangladesh 96‐105
Reinstatement of sanctions on Iran may create supply gap in Afghanistan and Iraq;
Rising environmental concerns in developed markets may encourage clinker imports;
Afghanistan 95‐101
Geo‐political tensions in Middle East amid rising cement demand in Qatar hinting
Sri Lanka 98‐100 towards an opportunity;
Pakistan 83‐87 Shift in Vietnam’s export mix as it begins to cater China’s demand etc.
Source: BMA Research #2 Devaluation‐ Exports friendly: While USD retention prices are low, this is more than
Valuation Snapshot compensated by over 33% devaluation in Pak Rupee since Nov’17, bringing PKR‐based
Method P/E D/Y retention on cement exports at par or higher than local retention prices. However, low‐
FY19E TP
/Stance (x) (%) margin clinker sales may dominate the export profile in near‐term.
LUCK 675 SoTP/Buy 10.7 2%
#3 Tax advantage: The tax applicable on exports is only 1% of turnover compared to
DGKC* 92 SoTP/Neutral 17.6 2% prevailing 29% corporate tax imposed on net earnings from local sales.
MLCF 67 DCF/Buy 8.1 5% #4 Possible freight subsidy: We believe the possibility of an announcement of freight
KOHC 128 DCF/Buy 7.1 3% subsidy and/or exports duty drawback remains, in order to support cement exports.
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Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
Pakistan Cements – New avenues, modest margins
in the offing
Based on our discussions with local and international cement players and our recent visit
to Pakistan’s first ever international cement conference, InterCem 2018, we take the
opportunity to assess the key prospects in global cement market in the backdrop of
changing dynamics that may shape future direction of Pakistan’s cement sector.
Country’s cement exports have lately shown signs of healthy recovery with 43% YoY
growth in 5MFY19 mainly supported by bulk clinker exports. In the backdrop of ~41mn
tons planned capacity additions in the country (almost 2x with 8.6mn tons already
commissioned), we believe exports have become crucial to achieve optimal utilization
and reduce fixed cost. Key export destinations for Pakistan cement/clinker include
Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Yemen, South Africa, Somalia, Tanzania etc.
Pakistan’s per capita cement consumption rising…
…but still significantly below world average of 500 kg per capita
200.0 2000
176
180.0 1800
165
153 1600
160.0 1400
140.0 130 135 1200
120.0
1000
95 800
100.0
71 71 600
80.0 62 68
400
60.0 42 48 200
40.0 0
Nepal
Germany
Bangladesh
Brazil
Egypt
UAE
Turkey
Nigeria
Pakistan
UK
United States
India
Canada
Sri Lanka
Italy
Algeria
Iran
South Korea
Indonesia
Russia
Japan
Thailand
Vietnam
China
Malaysia
Colombia
Mexico
Morroco
Saudi Arabia
20.0
0.0
1977
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: APCMA, PBS, Bloomberg, BMA Research
Excess capacity set to rise
Post 8.6mn tons capacity additions in the past two years, Pakistan’s cement industry
Supply additions leading to drop in
utilization currently operates at a capacity of 54.2mn tons (85% utilization in 5MFY19), where
another 32.7mn tons have been announced to be added over the next five years. While
Production Capacity
100 Utilization (%) 100% we see a higher likelihood of at least 10mn tons of the planned capacities to be
shelved/not materialize given declining margins and ROEs of the sector, we estimate an
80 80%
excess capacity of 25‐29mn tons by 2022 for Pakistan’s cement sector. That said, the
60 60% industry is expected to utilize the exports market (although mainly low margin clinker
40 40% based) to achieve economies of scale.
20 20% Supply additions leading to rise in excess capacity available for exports
mn tons FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E
0 0% Production Capacity 56.8 70.2 72.4 82.7 87.3
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20E
FY22E
21 December 2018 2
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Pakistan Cement Sector
container freights are one of the lowest in the world due to proximity to destinations
(see chart on page 20). Pakistan has been exporting cement/clinker through containers
since 2006 to Middle East such as Qatar, UAE, India, Oman, and East Africa.
Global dynamics are supportive
Global dynamics have been changing rapidly (details in next section) where the China
factor (recently 220mn tons production of cement is held by China due to environmental
issues), Iran sanctions, rising environmental concerns in developed markets, geo‐political
tensions in the Middle East, shift in Vietnam’s export mix, etc. have played a key role in
the recent uptrend seen in Pakistan’s cement exports (up 43% YoY in 5MFY19). A major
portion of export has been clinker sales where demand is mainly emanating from
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Kenya. The export potential can be gauged through the fact
that all available clinker for export purposes has already been pre‐booked till Mar’19
(channel checks).
Cement exports regaining momentum (mn tons)
Pakistan’s export mix
0.65 Afghanistan India Sea‐based Clinker
0.60 100%
0.55
0.50 80%
0.45
0.40
0.35 60%
0.30
0.25 40%
0.20
0.15 20%
0.10
0.05
0.00 0%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
5MFY19
‐0.05
Jan‐16
Sep‐16
Jan‐17
Sep‐17
Jan‐18
Sep‐18
Mar‐16
May‐16
Jul‐16
Nov‐16
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐17
Nov‐17
Mar‐18
May‐18
Jul‐18
Nov‐18
Source: APCMA, BMA Research
Devaluation‐ Exports friendly
Steep currency devaluations vs USD The 33% devaluation since Nov’17, has turned out to be a net positive for players with
140 healthy exports mix (particularly in South region). Interestingly, the PKR‐based retention
USD/PKR
132 on cement exports is now equivalent to (and in some cases higher than) local retention
prices (PKR335‐370/ bag export retention). While we acknowledge lower retention rates
124
on overall exports due to higher expected proportion of low margin clinker sales, we
116 believe rising global demand coupled with Pakistan’s edge in terms of quality and freight
108 cost may prove to be beneficial over the medium‐term as it may allow a window for
Pakistani exporters to charge higher premium (compared to peers), going forward.
100
Rising proportion of exports in total sales
Nov‐17
Nov‐18
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐17
Sep‐17
Jan‐18
Mar‐18
May‐18
Jul‐18
Sep‐18
40%
35%
30%
Source: Bloomberg, BMA Research
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
FY22E
FY23E
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Source: APCMA, BMA Research
21 December 2018 3
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Tax advantage
In addition to the new found indifference in retention prices of local cement sales and
export (due to devaluation), we highlight that exports also offer tax advantage where
only 1% tax on exports turnover is imposed compared to prevailing 29% corporate tax
applicable on net earnings through local sales.
Possible freight subsidy
In the backdrop of depleting FX reserves, twin deficits faced by the country and
government’s efforts to increase revenue base, we believe the possibility of an
announcement of freight subsidy and/or exports duty drawback remains, in order to
support cement exports. To recall, in order to boost exports, back in 2010, cement sector
was provided with an inland freight subsidy of 35% by the government through ‘Trade
Policy 2009‐10’. Although, the subsidy lasted for only three months (Apr‐Jun’10), it
helped to improve cost competiveness of Pakistan’s cement exporters in the region.
21 December 2018 4
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Pakistan Cement industry‐ Installed cement plants’ size and location
Source: DGKC Annual Report (published with consent), BMA Research
21 December 2018 5
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Global cement importers and exporters
Source: BMA Research
21 December 2018 6
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Global cement scenario turning positive for Pakistan
Global cement dynamics are on a mend of late where increased focus on environmental
friendly operations has significantly changed the cement supply/demand scenario in the
global market. The trends in global cement export market are reflective of the same
where clinker was the main driver of exports in 2017 with 54% YoY growth compared to
21% YoY decline in global cement exports. The cost differences in clinker and cement
along with the rising environmental concerns (particularly in developed countries as fuel
combustion holds the key in clinker production) have led to shift in export mix with rising
proportion of clinker.
Demand is stable…
The global cement market reached a volume of 4.8bn tons in 2017 where the demand
(ex‐China) is expected to grow by 3% over the next three years. While broader macro
concerns and softer oil prices are expected to keep developed markets’ demand growth
in check, emerging markets are expected to exhibit strong demand trend driven by
substantial infrastructure expenditure thus pushing the global demand curve higher.
…supply discipline is a key
Improving demand does not necessarily leads to improving margins as supply discipline is
the key. For the past two years, almost all of the supply additions are focused in
emerging markets (72mn tons are expected to be added in global cement capacity during
2018, 78% of which is concentrated in Asia). The rising capacities, on the one hand may
lead to lower utilization and a drop in marginal returns thus slowing down pace of
capacity additions going forward; while on the other hand the same may encourage
countries with excess capacities (particularly in emerging markets) to focus on exports
(demand mainly emerging from the developed world).
Top five markets from supply perspective
CY19/FY20E Capacity addition (mn tons)
India 60.8
Pakistan 16.0
Vietnam 9.0
Philippines 5.0
Uzbekistan 4.5
Source: BMA Research
World's top 15 cement exporters (2017) World's top 15 cement importers (2017)
8% % of world's total cement exports 14%
7% 6% % of world's total cement imports
7% 6% 6% 12% 11%
6% 5% 5% 5% 10%
5% 4% 4% 8%
4% 5%
3% 3% 2% 6% 4% 4%
3% 2% 3% 3%
2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2%
1%
0% 0%
Bangladesh
Israel
Germany
USA
Netherlands
Hong Kong
Oman
Canada
France
Nepal
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Australia
Philippines
Cambodia
Canada
Japan
Turkey
UAE
Germany
Greece
China
Thailand
Vietnam
USA
Spain
India
Ireland
Pakistan
Croatia
Source: The World Factbook, BMA Research
21 December 2018 7
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Pakistan Cement Sector
Key factors affecting global demand/supply
The key factors that affect global demand/supply scenario are as follows:
Environmental concerns‐ A real deal
Rising environmental concerns are turning out to be a real deal where cement production
process being coal‐fuel energy intensive results in high environmental pollution.
Typically, 30‐40% of direct CO2 emissions come from the combustion of fuels while the
remaining 60‐70% comes from the chemical reactions involved in cement manufacturing.
China alone, accounts for about 28% of the world’s CO2 emissions where 18% of the
country’s total CO2 emissions result from cement plant operations. To this end,
governments are increasingly taking actions to mitigate carbon emissions and build
climate resilience by deploying High Efficiency, Low Emission (HELE) production
processes, promoting carbon capture and storage, and penalizing carbon emissions. In
Europe, cement manufacturers have to pay for CO2 emissions (it costs ~USD17mn to
produce an additional 1mn ton of cement). On the other hand, selling CO2 credits in
Europe is more profitable than exporting cement.
As part of ‘war on pollution’, in addition to the USA, Europe and other developed nations,
China, India and Korea have recently joined the bandwagon to lessen the environmental
degradation through CO2 emissions and sand dredging (increases chances of floods). The
shutdown of inefficient capacities thereon have recently turned China into a net cement
importer from net exporter, previously, and is expected to have profound impact on
global supply/demand (China accounts for ~60% of global cement demand and is the
world’s largest cement producer).
Coal – A key input
Global coal price trend (USD/ton) The cement industry consumes around 4% of global coal production, where as per the
120 estimates of World Coal Association, there are 892bn tons of coal reserves in the world,
100 sufficient for 110 years of global requirement. However, as discussed above, rising
80 environmental concerns are leading to waning global coal demand with increasing focus
60 on shift towards replacing coal with biomass or waste. Following declining demand trend
40 (particularly from developed countries), China, in 2016, initiated closure of inefficient
20 mining capacities while restricting operational days to 276. The same resulted in China
0 becoming a net importer of coal particularly from Indonesia. However, in order to curtail
Sep‐16
Nov‐16
Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Sep‐17
Nov‐17
Jan‐18
Mar‐18
May‐18
Sep‐18
Nov‐18
Jul‐16
Jul‐17
Jul‐18
its growing deficit, China has recently embarked upon plans to cut down its coal imports
supporting local coal mining industry through addition of new efficient coal production
capacity and coal rail capacity (to reduce transport cost). This may lead to oversupply in
global coal market (as China accounts for 20% of global coal imports) amid declining
Source: Bloomberg, BMA Research
demand. Impact of recent changes is already visible in coal prices where despite peak
demand season (winters), coal prices have come‐off by 6% in past five months to
USD97.5/ton. We expect global coal prices to trend down going forward, where our
estimates for global coal prices are shown in the table below:
BMA's coal price estimates deck
FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E LT
(USD/ton) 95 90 83 77 75
Source: BMA Research
21 December 2018 8
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Pakistan Cement Sector
Availability of limestone
Cement is essentially a mixture of calcium silicates and calcium aluminates where the
requirement of calcium to produce cement is met by using high calcium limestone and
clay. Limestone accounts for 80‐90% of the raw material for the kiln feed (to produce
clinker). This highlights the importance of availability of limestone reserves that may
make a country net importer or net exporter of clinker and/or cement. Exploring the
region for this key raw material, we note some interesting facts:
Pakistan has umpteen limestone reserves required to produce cement over the next
100 years. Reserves are particularly abundant in Salt Range Hills, Margallah Hills and
Koh‐Suleman as well as in District Attock.
India also produces limestone where the reserves are sufficient for the next 35‐40
years.
The limestone reserves in Sri Lanka are limited (only one quarry producing 750k tons
p.a) and has a very high cost of extraction.
Bangladesh, on the other hand, does not have limestone availability and hence will
remain a net clinker importer forever.
Despite having limestone in abundance, Nepal is a clinker importing country due to
remote location of mines making the accessibility of limestone difficult and costly.
Afghanistan has four state‐owned cement plants in total where most of the plant
sites have substantial amounts of gypsum, clay, and limestone reserves available in
close to medium proximity.
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21 December 2018
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Pakistan Cement Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Italy Ireland Nigeria
South Korea Japan
South Korea Bangladesh
Japan
Ireland Zimbabwe Pakistan
Zimbabwe Sri Lanka India
France UAE
Spain UK
Argentina
Vietnam Italy Brazil
Germany Taiwan Canada
USA Argentina
Brazil Colombia
Sri Lanka
Spain Kenya Indonesia
Colombia Germany United States
Thailand
Net margins average over FY11‐17
Taiwan Nepal
China France
EBITDA margins average over FY11‐17
Brazil India
India Malaysia Mexico
Hong Kong USA Germany
Malaysia Vietnam Morroco
Tanzania Hong Kong
South Africa China Russia
Thailand Tanzania Japan
Global Turkey Thailand
Jordan Russia
Pakistan Australia Egypt
Australia Global Algeria
Kenya Colombia Malaysia
Philippines Philippines
Turkey Pakistan Iran
Russia Kuwait Vietnam
Indonesia South Africa UAE
Egypt Indonesia
Kuwait Egypt Turkey
Zambia Oman South Korea
Oman Zambia China
Global cement consumption and profitability trends
Saudi Arabia Qatar
Qatar Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Source: Bloomberg, BMA Research
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Pakistan Cement Sector
Tables have turned for key global cement exporters
China’s export mix (2017)
China‐ From net exporter to net importer!
With an installed capacity of 2.8bn tons and a utilization rate of 70%, China is the world’s
largest cement producer that accounts for 60% of the global cement demand. Following
Bangla
declaration of ‘war on pollution’ in 2013, China’s cement industry dynamics have been
desh
15% changing rapidly where the country’s 13th five year plan on environmental reforms has
mandated a 25% cut in number of cement enterprises by 2020 (this translates into an
USA elimination of 393mn tons of capacity and shutdown of 540 cement grinding companies).
Others 13% This, in addition to winter production suspension policy (in North China), executed in
49% Nov’18, has exacerbated the supply shortfall (particularly clinker) in the country amid
Hong
strong demand where average inventory levels are dropping thereby increasing pricing
Kong power of local cement producers. The abrupt and steep cut in operational capacity has
Phillipi
11% recently made China a net importer of cement (mainly from Vietnam due to proximity)
Kenya nes
6% 6% from net exporter previously (6.6% of global cement export market in 2017 compared to
9.5% in 2016).
Source: Global Cement, China Cement Association,
Enforcement of environmental control measures remain important for the country as
BMA Research
Chinese cement producers are heavy polluters , primarily given their higher reliance on
coal for both fuel and power (cement production emissions made up to 18% of the
particulate matter (CO2) and 9% of the nitrogen oxide in China's air). Nevertheless, the
recent development may encourage consolidation in a highly leveraged Chinese cement
industry as the increased focus on environmental friendly operations have led to
increased capex/fixed cost requirement for local cement manufacturers to remain
efficient.
Divergent cement price trends seen in China on uneven regional capacity cuts (ranging from
USD44‐85/ton)
Source: Bloomberg, BMA Research
21 December 2018 11
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India‐ Supply deficit widening in North
India’s demand/supply trend (mn tons) Indian cement demand has shown signs of healthy recovery (after a 7‐yr down cycle)
400 where the demand growth in the past 9‐mths remained in double digit. Supported by
Production Consumption healthy institutional activity and commencement of ‘housing for all’ project, demand is
300 expected to remain buoyant over the next three years (growing by 8‐9%). A key swing
factor, however, remains the upcoming elections (due in 2019).
200
Rising local consumption is expected to tilt country’s sales mix towards local market
100 offering better margins than exports (a similar scenario was seen in Pakistan during the
past four years). The demand growth is particularly strong in North, where Pakistan
0
already holds the highest share (75%) of Indian cement imports (1.2mn tons exported to
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
India in FY18). To note cement exports from Pakistan are 15% cheaper than Indian
cement, with no import duty since 2007 (earlier used to be 19%).
Source: BMA Research (reproduced) We believe, in addition to stable cement demand from India over the near‐to‐medium
term, Pakistan may also reap benefit of gradual (intentional) decline in Indian cement
exports (expected to comprise only 1% of total sales in FY19). India’s top cement/clinker
export destinations include Nepal, Sri Lanka, USA, Maldives, and UK.
Region wise installed capacity in India
Source: BMA Research
21 December 2018 12
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Pakistan Cement Sector
Iran’s sanctions may give an advantage
Iran, with an annual capacity of 85mn tons (75 cement plants), lowest cost production
and a utilization rate of ~70%, is world’s fourth largest cement producer after China, India
and USA. Country’s production capacity is about to reach 91mn tons by end 2019 where
recent re‐imposition of sanctions may bring misfortune for the local cement
manufacturers.
Despite the presence of lime rich minerals in the country, proximity of cement factories
to mines, and low cost fuel leading to lower cost of production and hence world’s lowest
cement retail price of USD12.14/ton, Iran’s local cement demand has been on a
downtrend (55% local utilization). Given better prices in global market (FOB of
USD20/ton) and low domestic demand, Iran’s dependence on exports has been on the
rising trend in past few years (~25% of total production is exported, both clinker and
cement). A key trend to note is the changing export mix of Iran where Afghanistan now
leads the mix (previously Iraq) with 30% of the total chunk while exports to Pakistan have
taken 3rd place (8%) in 2017 compared to less than 2% during 2016. In terms of clinker
(comprise 50% of export mix), Bangladesh and Kuwait remained the key destinations
(c.43% of clinker exports made to these two countries).
That said, we believe, the recent imposition of sanctions on Iran (leading to increased
shipping cost, closure of exporters’ foreign exchange counters) would benefit Pakistan
where on one hand, export restrictions should lead to lower dumping of cement in
Pakistan while it may also reduce competition being faced by Pakistani cement from Iran
in Afghanistan (a key export destination of Pakistan; North based players in particular).
Additionally, with rising clinker demand from Bangladesh, Pakistan has the opportunity to
takeover Iran’s clinker export share.
Destinations of Iran's cement exports (2017)
Turkeminstan Qatar South Africa
Tanzania 2% 2% 2%
3%
Kazakhistan
4% Kuwait
9%
Pakistan Afghanistan
10% 37%
Iraq
31%
Source: BMA Research
Vietnam‐ Exports diversion throw an opportunity
Vietnam exports Vietnam is an oversupplied market with a total capacity of 120.9mn tons (107 cement
Quantity Export price
9MCY18 facilities owned by 93 companies) and a local utilization level of 60%. Excluding the 10‐
(mn tons) (USD/ton)
15% reserve in addition to local cement consumption, Vietnam has an excess capacity of
Bangladesh 5.6 32
30‐35mn tons (another 9mn tons to be added by next year), which makes it necessary for
China 6.6 36
local manufacturers to export cement/clinker (albeit at lower price due to poor quality).
Philippines 4.8 46 Until 2017, Philippines was the key market for Vietnam’s cement where the share of
Taiwan 1.2 35 Philippines (the market with highest export price and relative proximity) in total export
mix is now declining due to (i) Philippines’ growing domestic capacity and increased focus
Source: BMA Research
on quality of cement, and (ii) growing demand from China (30% share of exports in 9M18
21 December 2018 13
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
compared to 7% in CY17) post closure of its cement plants due to environmental
concerns.
We believe, the changing export mix of Vietnam’s cement sector, bears significant
implications for other regional players with excess capacities particularly Pakistan. To
note (see table below), in addition to Philippines (for cement export), Bangladesh is the
key market for Vietnam’s clinker export. With rising demand for both clinker and cement
from world’s largest cement producer and consumer i.e. China, quantum of exports to
Bangladesh has been on a declining trend reflecting an opportunity to build‐on (benefit
of the same has already started to reflect in numbers where more than 60% of Pakistan’s
clinker exports are currently being made to Bangladesh).
Vietnam’s changing export mix
2017 9M18
35% 33%
30% 29%
30%
26% 26%
25% 22%
20% 17%
15%
10% 7%
5% 6%
5%
0%
Bangladesh China Philippines Taiwan Others
Source: BMA Research
Saudi Arabia‐ Exports to be a key savior
Following combination of pricing pressure, low utilization rates (68% in 2017), and high
inventory levels (country’s clinker stocks have doubled in past two years from 21mn tons
to ~41.6mn tons as of Oct’18, which is equivalent to ~11‐mths of output) due to
slowdown in economic/construction activity as government has cut down its
infrastructure spending, Saudi Arabian cement industry is shifting its focus towards
export. To recall, Saudi Arabia lifted the ban on cement exports in 2016 that was earlier
mandated in 2008 (to support local consumption) then partially lifted in 2009 before
enforcing again in 2012. Also, keeping in view the declining demand and consistent
pressure on prices leading to steep decline in margins from 46% to 32% in past one year,
almost all major players have shelved their plans to expand capacities (initial target to
achieve 100mn tons capacity within 5years from existing 74mn tons). Although low in
quantity for now (9% of total sales), exports are being made to Yemen, Jordan and
Bahrain primarily. With exports from Saudi Arabia picking up, we believe Pakistani
cement exports to Middle East (particularly to Yemen) may see a dent. However, logistic
difficulties and higher transportation costs remain a key concern for Saudi Arabia’s
cement export.
Turkey‐ Supplier to the developed world
Turkey can fulfill demand from UK and USA in particular where it boasts installed cement
capacity of 135.5mn tons and a utilization rate of 57% as of 7MCY18 (62% in CY17). To
note, Turkey already exports ~15% of its clinker and cement production where top export
destinations include Ghana, Syria and the USA.
21 December 2018 14
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What could be the possible export destinations?
Qatar
In the backdrop of rising export by Saudi Arabia, a ray of hope is Qatar’s market where
the sore ties between Qatar and its regional peers (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and
Egypt) and the recent re‐imposition of sanctions on Iran, may benefit Pakistan.
With 6.5mn tons installed cement capacity, one company i.e. Qatar National Cement
Company (QNCC) holding 70% of the market share, and an expected demand growth of
7‐9% over the next five years, Qatar’s cement imports are expected to increase
significantly in the near to medium‐term (currently imports 0.3‐0.5mn tons). Demand in
Qatar’s construction sector is expected to remain strong driven by real estate projects as
well as big ticket projects related to 2022 FIFA World Cup and Qatar National Vision 2030.
We highlight Qatar as a potential market for Pakistan cement/clinker exports.
Bangladesh cement supply/demand
mn
Supply Demand Utilization (%)
Bangladesh
tons With a consistent economic growth of above 6% for the past decade, one of the lowest
2011 21.0 13.0 62% per capita cement consumption of 162kg and a 10‐yr cement demand CAGR of 13%,
2012 22.0 14.6 66% Bangladesh is, although small, but a key player in global cement market. With absence of
limestone reserves in the country, the country can rightly be termed as a forever clinker
2013 25.0 17.2 69%
importing destination where it has imported more than 16mn tons of clinker in
2014 33.0 19.0 58% 10MCY18. Bangladesh has a grinding capacity of 55mn tons where another 25mn tons
2015 32.0 20.0 63% are expected to be added by 2020 taking total capacity to 80mn tons. The country was
2016 36.0 24.9 69% previously importing mainly from Vietnam, China and India where changing supply
patterns of China and Vietnam have shifted the flows towards Pakistan. ~60% of
2017 43.7 27.3 62%
Pakistan’s clinker exports are currently being made to Bangladesh.
Source: Shun Shing Group, BMA Research
Origination of clinker exports to Bangladesh
Source: Shun Shing Group, BMA Research (reproduced)
21 December 2018 15
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
Sri Lanka
Breakup of cement supply sources Following 30 years of civil war, Sri Lanka’s economy grew at an average of 5.8% over the
FY18 mn tons % of total past seven years amid transition from a rural based economy to a more urbanized one.
Imported clinker 2.3 34% This has led to a pickup in construction activity where growth in cement demand is
Bulk cement 2.3 33%
expected to sustain, on the back of mega urban development projects and massive
housing project plans for North and East region of the country. However, marred by
Bagged cement 1.3 19%
limited availability of limestone, the country has only one integrated cement plant (Insee
Domestic Cement) that caters to 14% of the overall demand (7mn tons). In addition to one
1.0 14%
production
integrated unit, the country has two cement grinding units installed, where clinker
Total demand 6.9 100%
imports comprise 34% of the total imports, mainly dominated by India (36% share). That
Source: Dalmia Cement, BMA Research (reproduced)
said, 86% of Sri Lankan cement requirement is fulfilled through imports where Pakistan
holds 4th position with 7% share of Sri Lankan cement import (mainly bagged cement)
while India dominates the market with c.43.6% share of clinker and cement imports.
With robust, high‐margin domestic cement demand outlook in India, we believe the
quantum of Indian cement exports may decline going forward, where the gap can be
filled by Pakistan in a country where it already has a strong foothold (among the top five).
Key cement/clinker exporters to Sri Lanka
Singapore Japan
Malaysia 3% 3%
5%
Veitnam
6%
Pakistan
8%
Thailand
9% India
51%
Indonesia
15%
Source: Dalmia Cement, BMA Research
South Africa
As local cement producers in South Africa are struggling to contain debt, whilst
maintaining some level of profitability, the country has recently turned into a net
importer of cement. An interesting development here is the introduction of Vietnamese
cement imports (started from Mar’18), swiping 39% of the imported cement market
within three months (Mar‐Jun’18). China has essentially lost its dominance in South
African market due to halt in cement production in number of cities in China, thus taking
the market share down from 84% in 2017 to 38% in 6M18. While Pakistan’s cement
exports currently face an anti‐dumping duty ranging from 14‐77% (since 2016; due to
expire in 2021), we believe changing dynamics of South Africa’s cement market may bring
Lucky Cement (LUCK) in the spotlight (given lowest rate of duty i.e. 14%). To note,
Pakistan’s share in total import has already increased from 16% in 2017 to 23% in 6M18.
21 December 2018 16
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s cement import mix Similar to Nepal, Afghanistan too is a landlocked country, where it has more than 95%
Tajikista dependence on imports to fulfill its cement demand. The country has four state‐owned
n cement plants installed with a cumulative capacity of 0.69mn tons, however the plants
17% are based on old wet‐process technology and are highly inefficient. Afghanistan imports
3‐3.15mn tons of cement annually where Pakistan dominates the market with 60% share,
followed by Iran and Tajikistan. We believe the recent developments in Afghan’s cement
Iran sector are crucial to shape future direction. The details are as follows:
23%
Pakistan
The country is in the process of expanding its cement capacity by 1mn tons
60% (expansion of Jabal‐e‐Seraj cement plant) that would reduce its dependence on
cement imports by 30%.
Increasing exports from Tajikistan (a country with 4mn tons capacity, 25% of which is
Source: BMA Research exported, where exports to Afghanistan form 35% of Tajikistan’s total cement
exports).
Reportedly, the Afghanistan Customs Department has banned imports of cement
from Iran’s South Khorasan Province since 16th‐Sep’18 following re‐imposition of US
Proportion of local production and imports sanctions on Iran.
in total supply mix Keeping in view the above developments, we expect, Pakistan’s export to Afghanistan to
Production Imports decline gradually in near‐term only to stabilize over the next two three years. The
100%
stabilization may come as increase in domestic capacity may offset reduced imports from
80% Iran along with decline in imports from Tajikistan (as it is a relatively new and small player
60% in Afghan market, while Pakistan maintains a geographical advantage).
40% Location and size of cement plants in Afghanistan
20%
0%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Source: Central Statistics Organization, BMA Research
Source: Afghan Economics, BMA Research
21 December 2018 17
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
Nepal
Nepal is landlocked between India (towards East, West and South) and China (towards
North) and the country’s major trade route is via Indian boarder. Consequently, India
dominates Nepal’s import market, where more than 95% of cement/clinker import is
sourced from India. The country has abundant limestone reserves, however, the remote
location of mines and poor road infrastructure lead to higher landed cost of limestone,
making it infeasible to produce clinker (for players in most part of the country). With 36
grinding plants of total 54 cement manufacturing units installed, country’s import of
clinker comprised 36% of total consumption in FY18. Nevertheless, with robust demand
outlook, Nepal is taking steps to become self‐sufficient in clinker/cement production over
the next two years. To note, Nepal’s cement industry, though small in size (9mn tons in
FY18), offers the highest cement price in the region of USD131‐138/ton. That said, we
flag an opportunity for geographical diversification for Pakistani cement players to
benefit from higher prices while capitalizing on their technical and operational expertise.
Cement demand and supply (mn tons) Domestic supply mix
12.00 Consumption Import Production 12.00 Domestic production Imports
100%
10.00 10.00
80%
8.00 8.00
6.00 6.00 60%
4.00 4.00 40%
2.00 2.00
20%
0.00 0.00
0%
2002
2010
2017
2018
2020E
Clinker Cement
Source: Cement Manufacturers Association Nepal, BMA Research
East Africa
Demand in East African market is expected to grow by a CAGR of 7.5% over the next five
Country wise demand/supply (2017)
years (following double digit growth during 2014‐17) owing to government’s heavy
mn tons Production Demand
investment in infrastructure and transport sector. Demand is particularly strong in
Ethiopia 16.5 10.0 Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda and Rwanda. While demand outlook remains buoyant, the
Uganda 2.6 2.4 supply side hiccups in the region may boost country’s cement imports in near to medium
term.
Tanzania 5.7 4.3
Rwanda 0.3 0.6 The local cement industry has been facing continued challenges from erratic power
supply (limited capacity of power transmission lines and substations), high import cost of
Kenya 6.2 5.8
coal (landed cost is as high as USD170/ton) and shortage of skilled manpower. Rising
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, BMA Research
quantum of cheaper imports is putting further pressure on prices where in the backdrop
of strong demand growth global players are extending their footprint in the region both
by cement exports and green‐field expansion/buyout of existing plants (to name a few,
Nigeria‐based Dangote and Oman‐based Raysut are in the process of expanding in the
region).
21 December 2018 18
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
What’s the export potential?
Pakistan has the lowest cement prices in With China turning a net importer of cement, thereby drying up Vietnam’s traditional
the region (USD/ton) export markets (i.e. Philippines, Bangladesh etc), Pakistan seems to be well‐positioned to
Countries Cement Retail Price fill the gap created therein. Also, reinstatement of Iran’s sanctions provides an
Nepal 131‐138 opportunity to regain share in Afghanistan market while increasing Pakistan’s reach to
India 100‐102 Iraq. Further, robust demand growth outlook in India particularly in Punjab may continue
to fuel cement exports to Indian market where the country is expected to become a net
Bangladesh 96‐105
importer of cement over the medium‐term. South Africa has also recently turned into a
Afghanistan 95‐101 net cement importer, where constrained supply from China and Vietnam presents a key
Sri Lanka 98‐100 opportunity for Pakistan (the 3rd largest cement exporter in South African market). In
Pakistan 83‐87 addition to the above Somalia, Yemen, Myanmar and Philippines are the markets that
remain viable for Pakistan cement/clinker exports and can be explored going forward, in
Source: BMA Research
our view.
Our analysis suggests regional export opportunity may allow Pakistan to lift its exports by
as much as 17% over 5‐yrs (CAGR), accounting for 30% of capacity additions. This is
particularly important as it may help in stabilizing domestic retention prices in the face of
upcoming supply additions. To note, Pakistan currently caters only 12% of a regional
export market size of ~40mn tons (as of FY18).
Regional cement/clinker export market
Earnings outlook little changed
Despite supportive environment, we believe the contribution of exports sales to cement
players’ profitability will be limited by dominance of low‐margin clinker exports and high
fixed cost (depreciation and funding cost on capex). Our current estimates build in 5yr
export growth CAGR of 17% over FY18‐23E. Although low in margin (clinker in particular),
exports are expected to play a major role in reducing the fixed costs for the cement
manufacturers. This is particularly important as it may help in stabilizing domestic
retention prices in the face of upcoming supply additions. That said, better retention
prices on clinker and/or local sales remains a major upside risk to our thesis.
21 December 2018 19
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
Who are the key beneficiaries?
Given access to sea‐based export market and the required infrastructure in place, cement
players in the Southern region stand to benefit the most from the changing dynamics.
Based on ability to diversify the export mix and an established footprint in global
markets, we flag Lucky Cement (LUCK), Attock Cement (ACPL), and DG Khan Cement
(DGKC) as the key beneficiaries.
While the export potential for cement manufacturers in the Northern region is limited
(Afghanistan and India are the two key destinations), we flag Maple Leaf Cement Factory
Limited (MLCF) as key beneficiary in the region given its ability to tap both North (mainly
by road) and South market (through access to low cost railway infrastructure).
Increasing proportion of exports in sales mix
50% FY18 1QFY19
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
LUCK ACPL DGKC MLCF KOHC PIOC
Source: Company Accounts, BMA Research
Pakistan’s current export destinations
Source: BMA Research
21 December 2018 20
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
BMA Capital Management Limited | Pakistan
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investors should ensure careful reading of the entire research reports and not infer its contents from the rating ascribed by the analyst. Ratings should not be used or
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Capital Limited uses a three tier rating system: i) Buy, ii) Neutral and iii) Underperform (new rating system effective Jan 1’18) with our rating being based on total stock
returns versus BMA’s index target return for the year. A table presenting BMA’s rating definitions is given below:
21 December 2018 21
Pakistan | Equities
Pakistan Cement Sector
Buy >20% expected total return
Neutral 0%‐20% expected total return
Underperform <0% expected total return
*Total stock return = capital gain + dividend yield
Old rating system
Total stock return > expected market return + 2%
Overweight
Marketweight Expected market return ± 2%
Underweight Total stock return < expected market return ‐ 2%
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To arrive at our period end target prices, BMA Capital uses different valuation methodologies including
• Discounted cash flow (DCF, DDM)
• Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.)
• Equity & Asset return based methodologies (EVA, Residual Income etc.)
21 December 2018 22