Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
About COVID-19
The facts, the ethics, and the protective measures you should take
In this piece, I’ve compiled a list of the most commonly asked questions and responses,
with the hope of making this information more accessible. Please note: I am not a public
health or medical professional; however, I have taken extra care to square all my
responses here with official guidance and medical advice.
Why are people freaking out about COVID-19 more than flu?
Each person infected with seasonal influenza may infect approximately 1.3 other people.
For SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), it is estimated to infect about three
times as many people (estimated at two to four). This number is called the reproductive
factor — or R0, sometimes pronounced “R-naught” — and you may see it referred to that
way. A higher reproductive factor means COVID-19 will lead to many, many more cases
very quickly and may overwhelm an already burdened medical system.
If I’m likely to get it, why not just get on with my daily routines if it
doesn’t seem that dangerous?
Don’t be the person who takes up medical resources that someone else needs more than
you do. This is our ethical North Star with this disease. The goal should be to minimize
spread so that as health resources (diagnostics, treatments, ventilators, oxygen
concentrators, etc.) are needed, they are available to the people who need them most.
The graphic below explains exactly why this is important. If we can slow down the
spread, we have more time to react and make necessary preparations. A slower spread
will save many lives, because an overwhelmed health care system will not be able to
provide care to all who need it. Health care experts call this “flattening the curve,” and
it’s perhaps our best and only strategy for mitigating this situation.
Aren’t other diseases like SARS, MERS, or H1N1 more lethal? So why freak
out about this one?
The issue isn’t the lethality of COVID-19 as much as the overall impact of the outbreak.
While these other diseases may be more lethal, the combination of reproductive factor
(R0), receptivity in the population (susceptibility), and immunity may make them much
more manageable. SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is totally new to the
population, so no one is immune. Each year, people are already immune to the flu
because of exposure to prior variants or because of annual vaccination. There is no
vaccine available yet for SARS-CoV-2. We should expect it will be at least Q1 2021 before
a tested vaccine is widely available. In the meantime, everyone is likely vulnerable, so we
should expect that an extremely large number of people will be infected.
In the United States, we might expect 66 million to 231 million people will be infected,
with as many as 1.2 million to 4.6 million dead, possibly more. That may well also be an
overestimate; we don’t know a “true” mortality rate yet, but the WHO estimates it may
be as high as 3.4%. But the mortality rate isn’t as important as the fact that the medical
system will be overwhelmed, because this will all happen really fast. And yes, many
people will die. We just don’t know how many yet. But we can limit the total number of
people infected if we take serious containment measures early on. That will save lives.
Won’t this calm down in summer, with warmer temperatures, as the flu
does?
We don’t know yet. There is some reason to think this disease may slow in warmer
temperatures. However, it has a high reproductive factor (R0), a high prodromal
(asymptomatic) period of about 14 days, and it’s not the same as flu. Warmer countries
like Singapore have cases right now. We are watching developments in other warm
countries that also have cases. And people may be carriers without showing symptoms.
While transmission via surfaces (where it can survive for several days) may diminish
with temperature, we don’t know how or if host-to-host transmission may be affected. So
it may persist into summer despite warmer temperatures, while also shifting its
prevalence into the Southern Hemisphere, where it is cooler. In fall, it may resume
where it left off and continue infecting people, if there are susceptible people left to
infect. Or it may reinfect people, if somehow reinfection is possible or if a mutation
appears. Do not expect this to be over by September.
Panic seems worse than the disease itself. Should we really be worried
about this? Why is there so much fear?
Yes! Panic, worry, and fear are totally unhelpful. Instead, we should be realistic and
prepared, and we should have a rational framework for thinking about our response to
this, with full transparency from government agencies. While we may be falling short of
this standard at the moment, we can certainly calm down and understand the
mathematics behind this — and take reasonable actions to minimize risk. Making sure to
have two to three weeks of food and necessary medicines on hand is a great preparation.
Avoid hoarding supplies, especially things like breathing masks, which are only helpful if
you are in at-risk situations. Hopefully this list of questions and answers helps put things
in proper perspective.
Why are conferences being canceled?
The CDC has suggested that social distancing measures and limiting nonessential travel
can help slow the spread of the disease in communities. Many conference organizers are
also facing pushback from attendees, sponsors, and contractors about attending or
working at events. In some cases, local governments are forcing the cancellation of large
events. For this reason, many organizers are deciding to postpone events to a later date
or put things on hiatus while this situation is addressed. In general, you should consider
that minimizing your exposure to large groups is the most socially responsible thing to
do. And if you must travel, you might consider driving versus flying or taking a train.
Some are advising that all unnecessary gatherings and activities be canceled.
For more comprehensive and scientifically detailed answers than these, I encourage you
to stay abreast of what the CDC and WHO have to say. Again, I am not a medical expert
— just someone good at reading, math, and basic reasoning. We must all encourage
straightforward information sharing and prevention methods and discourage panic.
Together, we can get through this.
The coronavirus outbreak is rapidly evolving. To stay informed, check the U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention and your local health department for updates. If you’re
feeling emotionally overwhelmed, reach out to the Crisis Text Line.