Energy crisis

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This article is about energy crises in general. For other uses, see Oil crisis.
See also: Energy and society

This article is outdated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Please see the talk page for more
information. (January 2010)

An energy crisis is any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In popular literature though, it often refers to one of the energy
sources used at a certain time and place. Energy runs machinery in factories, lights our cities and powers our vehicles. There has been an enormous increase in the demand
for energy as a result of industrial development and population growth. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand.

[edit]Causes

Market failure is possible when monopoly manipulation of markets occurs. A crisis can develop due to industrial actions like union organized strikes and government
embargoes. The cause may be over-consumption, aging infrastructure, choke point disruption or bottlenecks at oil refineries and port facilities that restrict fuel supply. An
emergency may emerge during unusually cold winters due to increased consumption of energy.

Pipeline failures and other accidents may cause minor interruptions to energy supplies. A crisis could possibly emerge after infrastructure damage from severe weather.
Attacks by terrorists or militia on important infrastructure are a possible problem for energy consumers, with a successful strike on a Middle East facility potentially causing
global shortages. Political events, for example, when governments change due to regime change, monarchy collapse, military occupation, and coup may disrupt oil and gas
production and create shortages.

[edit]Historical crises

 1970s energy crisis - caused by the peaking of oil production in major industrial nations (Germany, United States, Canada, etc.) andembargoes from other
producers

 1973 oil crisis - caused by an OPEC oil export embargo by many of the major Arab oil-producing states, in response to Western support
of Israel during the Yom Kippur War
 1979 oil crisis - caused by the Iranian Revolution

 1990 oil price shock - caused by the Gulf War

 The 2000–2001 California electricity crisis - Caused by market manipulation by Enron and failed deregulation; resulted in multiple large-scalepower
outages
 Fuel protests in the United Kingdom in 2000 were caused by a rise in the price of crude oil combined with already relatively high taxation on road fuel
in the UK.
 North American natural gas crisis

 2004 Argentine energy crisis

 North Korea has had energy shortages for many years.

 Zimbabwe has experienced a shortage of energy supplies for many years due to financial mismanagement.

 Political riots occurring during the 2007 Burmese anti-government protests were sparked by rising energy prices.

[edit]Emerging shortages
Kuwait's Al Burqan Oil Field, the world's second largest oil field, will be depleted within 40 years.[1]

Crises that exist as of 2008 include:

 2000s energy crisis - Since 2003, a rise in prices caused by continued global increases in petroleum demand coupled with production stagnation, the
falling value of the U.S. dollar, and a myriad of other secondary causes.
 2008 Central Asia energy crisis, caused by abnormally cold temperatures and low water levels in an area dependent on hydroelectric power. At the
same time the South African President was appeasing fears of a prolonged electricity crisis in South Africa.[2]
 In February 2008 the President of Pakistan announced plans to tackle energy shortages that were reaching crisis stage, despite having significant
hydrocarbon reserves,.[3] In April 2010 Pakistan government announced Pakistan national energy policy which extended the official weekend and banned neon
lights in response to a growing electricity shortage.[4]
 South African electrical crisis. The South African crisis, which may last to 2012, led to large price rises for platinum in February 2008[5] and reduced
gold production.
 China experienced severe energy shortages towards the end of 2005 and again in early 2008. During the latter crisis they suffered severe damage to
power networks along with diesel and coal shortages.[6] Supplies of electricity in Guangdong province, the manufacturing hub of China, are predicted to fall short
by an estimated 10 GW.[7]
 It has been predicted that in the coming years after 2009 that the United Kingdom will suffer an energy crisis due to its commitments to reduce coal
fired power stations, its politician's unwillingness to set up new nuclear power stations to replaces those that will be de-commissioned in a few years (even
though they will not be running in time to stop a full blown crisis) and unreliable sources and sources that are running out of oil and gas. It is therefore predicted
that the UK may have regular blackouts like South Africa.[8]

[edit]Social and economic effects

Main article: Energy economics
The macroeconomic implications of a supply shock-induced energy crisis are large, because energy is the resource used to exploit all other resources. When energy
markets fail, an energy shortage develops. Electricity consumers may experience intentionally engineered rolling blackouts which are released during periods of
insufficient supply or unexpected power outages, regardless of the cause.

Industrialized nations are dependent on oil, and efforts to restrict the supply of oil would have an adverse effect on the economies of oil producers. For the consumer,
the price of natural gas, gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises. An early response from stakeholders is the call for reports, investigations and
commissions into the price of fuels. There are also movements towards the development of more sustainable urban infrastructure.

In 2006, US survey respondents were willing to pay more for a plug-in hybrid car

In the market, new technology and energy efficiency measures become desirable for consumers seeking to decrease transport costs.[9]Examples include:

 In 1980 Briggs & Stratton developed the first gasoline hybrid electric automobile; also are appearing plug-in hybrids.

 the growth of advanced biofuels.

 innovations like the Dahon, a folding bicycle

 modernized and electrifying passenger transport

 Railway electrification systems and new engines such as the Ganz-Mavag locomotive

 variable compression ratio for vehicles

Other responses include the development of unconventional oil sources such as synthetic fuel from places like the Athabasca Oil Sands, morerenewable energy
commercialization and use of alternative propulsion. There may be a Relocation trend towards local foods and possiblymicrogeneration, solar thermal collectors and
other green energy sources.

Tourism trends change and ownership of gas-guzzlers vary, both because of increases to fuel costs which are passed on to customers. Items which were not so
popular gain favour, such as nuclear power plants and the blanket sleeper, a garment to keep children warm. Building construction techniques change to reduce
heating costs, potentially through increased insulation.

See also: Green building and Zero-energy building

[edit]Crisis management
An electricity shortage is felt most by those who depend on electricity for their heating, cooking and water supply. In these circumstances a sustained energy crisis
may become ahumanitarian crisis.

If an energy shortage is prolonged a crisis management phase is enforced by authorities. Energy audits may be conducted to monitor usage. Various curfews with the
intention of increasing energy conservation may be initiated to reduce consumption. To conserve power during the Central Asia energy crisis, authorities in Tajikistan
ordered bars and cafes to operate by candlelight.[10] Warnings issued that peak demand power supply might not be sustained.

In the worst kind of energy crisis energy rationing and fuel rationing may be incurred. Panic buying may beset outlets as awareness of shortages spread. Facilities
close down to save on heating oil; and factories cut production and lay off workers. The risk of stagflation increases.

[edit]Mitigation of an energy crisis

Main article: Mitigation of peak oil
The Hirsch report made clear that an energy crisis is best averted by preparation. In 2008, solutions such as the Pickens Plan and the satirical in origin Paris Hilton
energy plan suggest the growing public consciousness of the importance of mitigation.

Energy policy may be reformed leading to greater energy intensity, for example in Iran with the 2007 Gas Rationing Plan in Iran, Canada and the National Energy
Program and in the USA with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. In Europe the oil phase-out in Sweden is an initiative a government has taken to
provide energy security. Another mitigation measure is the setup of a cache of secure fuel reserves like the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in case
of national emergency. Chinese energy policy includes specific targets within their 5 year plans.

Andrew McKillop has been a proponent of a contract and converge model or capping scheme, to mitigate both emissions of greenhouse gases and a peak oil crisis.
The imposition of acarbon tax would have mitigating effects on an oil crisis.[citation needed] The Oil Depletion Protocol has been developed by Richard Heinberg to
implement a powerdown during a peak oilcrisis. While many sustainable development and energy policy organisations have advocated reforms to energy
development from the 1970s, some cater to a specific crisis in energy supply including Energy-Questand the International Association for Energy Economics. The Oil
Depletion Analysis Centre and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gasexamine the timing and likely effects of peak oil.

Ecologist William Rees believes that

To avoid a serious energy crisis in coming decades, citizens in the industrial countries should actually be urging their governments to come to international agreement on
“ a persistent, orderly, predictable, and steepening series of oil and natural gas price hikes over the next two decades. ”
Due to a lack of political viability on the issue, government mandated fuel prices hikes are unlikely and the unresolved dilemma of fossil fuel dependence is becoming
a wicked problem. A global soft energy path seems improbable, due to the rebound effect. Conclusions that the world is heading towards an unprecedented large and
potentially devastating global energy crisis due to a decline in the availability of cheap oil lead to calls for a decreasing dependency on fossil fuel.

Other ideas have been proposed which concentrate on improved, energy-efficient design and development of urban infrastructure in developing nations.
[11]
Government funding for alternative energy is more likely to increase during an energy crisis, so too are incentives for oil exploration. For example funding for
research into inertial confinement fusion technology increased during 1970's.

Energy economists theorize that declining energy availability will result in a higher price for energy and that this will attract investment to procure new sources of
energy that may besubstituted. However as Michael Lardelli and others have pointed out, this hypothesis does not include the concept of Energy Returned on Energy
Invested, which is important for example, when considering biofuels as an alternative to conventional energy supplies. The theory also assumes that capital
investment in the substitution sector will be available even if a financial downturn caused by higher energy prices happens.[12] Nor does the theory account for the fact
that the most easily obtainable energy is extracted from reserves first because it provides the most profit leaving the smaller, harder to reach and more expensive to
produce reserves.[13]

[edit]Future and alternative energy sources

In response to the petroleum crisis, the principles of green energy and sustainable living movements gain popularity. This has led to increasing interest in alternate
power/fuel research such as fuel cell technology, liquid nitrogen economy, hydrogen fuel, methanol, biodiesel, Karrick process, solar energy, geothermal energy, tidal
energy, wave power, and wind energy, and fusion power. To date, only hydroelectricity and nuclear power have been significant alternatives to fossil fuel.

Hydrogen gas is currently produced at a net energy loss from natural gas, which is also experiencing declining production in North America and elsewhere. When not
produced from natural gas, hydrogen still needs another source of energy to create it, also at a loss during the process. This has led to hydrogen being regarded as a
'carrier' of energy, like electricity, rather than a 'source'. The unproven dehydrogenating process has also been suggested for the use water as an energy source.

Efficiency mechanisms such as Negawatt power can encourage significantly more effective use of current generating capacity. It is a term used to describe the trading
of increased efficiency, using consumption efficiency to increase available market supply rather than by increasing plant generation capacity. As such, it is a demand-
side as opposed to a supply-side measure.

[edit]Predictions
Although technology has made oil extraction more efficient, the world is having to struggle to provide oil by using increasingly costly and less productive methods such
as deep sea drilling, and developing environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million people per day, increasing the consumption of energy. Although far less from people in developing
countries, especially USA, the per capita energy consumption of China, India and other developing nations continues to increase as the people living in these
countries adopt more energy intensive lifestyles. At present a small part of the world's population consumes a large part of its resources, with the United States and its
population of 300 million people consuming far more oil than China with its population of 1.3 billion people.

William Catton has emphasised the link between population size and energy supply, concluding that

The faster the present generation draws down the fossil energy legacy upon which persistently exuberant lifestyles now depend, the less opportunity posterity will have
“ to live in anything like the same way or the same numbers. Yet most contemporary political proposals for solving problems of economic stagnation or inequity amount to
plans for speeding up the rate of drawdown of non-renewable resources. ”
David Pimentel professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, has called for massive reduction in world populations in order to avoid a permanent global
energy crisis. The implication is that cheap oil has created a human overshoot beyond Earth's carrying capacity which inevitably lead to an energy crisis.

See also: Energy balance (disambiguation) and Tragedy of the Commons

For nearly 60 years the US dependence on imported oil has grown significantly.

Matthew Simmons and Julian Darley amongst others, have examined the economic effects of an energy crisis. Historian, and sociologist Franz Schurmann links an
energy crisis with a deflating American dollar. He has stated that

If a dollar free-fall should take place, Americans will confront an energy crisis that will make the October 1973 oil shortage seem a mild
“ nuisance. ”
According to Christopher Falvin, geopolitical factors has resulted in current energy system, based on fossil fuels, to be a risk managementissue that undermines global
security.[citation needed] Considering the significant source of greenhouse gas emissions accumulating in the atmosphere, fossil fuel energy is being viewed as
increasingly socially irresponsible. Joseph Tainter is an expert on societal collapse and energy supply who draws attention to the complexity of modern society and our
ability to problem solve the wider issue of environmental degradation.[14]

National population suffering from undernourishment as percentage.

[edit]Agriculture
According to Kenneth S. Deffeyes, agricultural production is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons for energy, in the form of petroleum to power machinery and transport
goods to market. Another important input is fertilizer usage that is highly dependent on natural gas for its production and sometimes for fueled irrigation. Between the
late 1940s and early 1980s, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green
Revolution was provided almost always by fossil fuels.[citation needed] The 20th century population explosion is strongly correlated with the discovery and extraction of
hydrocarbons.

The decision to develop a biofuel industry through subsidies and tariffs in the USA has increased food costs globally. Lester R. Brown states[15] that by converting
grains into fuel for cars

..the world is facing the most severe food price inflation in history as grain and soyabean prices climb to all-time
“ highs, ”

World power usage, 1965–2005

See also: Food security and Food vs fuel
[edit]Catastrophe
Some experts including Howard Odum and David Holmgren have used the term energy descent to describe a post-peak oil period of transition. Ron Swenson has
described a looming peak oil crisis as a calamity unparalleled in human history.[citation needed] The peaking of world hydrocarbon production, known as peak oil may
test Malthus critics. Michael C. Ruppert has discussed energy crises in relation to thepetrodollar, oil imperialism and police states.

See also: Oil depletion and Doomer

[edit]Cultural references
Fictional scenarios have been explored in;

 Frontlines: Fuel of War, a first-person shooter game that depicts a global energy crisis in 2024 leading to war between Western Coalition (EU and
USA) against Red Star Alliance (Russia and China) over the last remaining natural resources
 Ice, online comic
  Mad Max, depicts an energy starved post-apocalypse world.

 Oil Storm, a 2005 television docudrama portraying a future oil-shortage crisis in the United States

 Soylent Green, a film about a dystopian future in which overpopulation leads to depleted resources

 The Man Who Broke Britain, a BBC docudrama

 The Running Man, a fictional film depicts the effects of a global economic collapse

 Monsters Inc., a Pixar animated film that takes place in a fictional world called "Monstropolis", whose power supply is provided by Monsters, Inc. by
extracting energy from children's screams. Monstropolis is in the middle of an energy crisis because children are harder to scare than they used to be.

[edit]See also

Economics portal

Energy portal

 Commodity market

 Embodied energy

 Gasoline usage and pricing

 Peak coal

 Petroleum politics

 Resource-based view

[edit]References

1. ^ Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil

2. ^ "Mbeki in pledge on energy crisis". Financial Times. Retrieved 2008-02-10.
3. ^ "Musharraf for emergency measures to overcome energy crisis". Associated Press of Pakistan. Retrieved 2008-02-10. [dead link]

4. ^ "Pakistan's PM announces energy policy to tackle crisis". BBC. April 22, 2010. Retrieved 22 April 2010.
5. ^ "Energy crisis upsets platinum market". Nature. Retrieved 2008-02-21.
6. ^ "Coal shortage has China living on the edge". Retrieved 2008-03-08.
7. ^ "China's Guangdong faces severe power shortage". Reuters. 2008-03-06. Retrieved 2008-03-08.
8. ^ "How long till the lights go out?". The Economist. 6 August 2009. Retrieved 31 August 2009.
9. ^ High Oil Prices Boost Energy Efficiency. January 30, 2008 Planet Ark.
10. ^ "Crisis Looms as Bitter Cold, Blackouts Hit Tajikistan". NPR. Retrieved 2008-02-10.

11. ^ Vittorio E. Pareto, Marcos P. Pareto. "The Urban Component of the Energy Crisis". Retrieved 2008-08-13.

12. ^ Peter Pogany (26 June 2007). "Global efforts to substitute for oil: Learning by doing ourselves in". Energy Bulletin. Post Carbon Institute. Retrieved
14 January 2010.

13. ^ Clementine Fullias (25 November 2009). "Peak Oil : IEA's predictions seeming more and more infeasible with time". Scitizen Interview with Michael
Lardelli. Take Part Media. Retrieved 14 January 2010.

14. ^ Joseph A. Tainter. "Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies". Getting Down To Earth: Practical Applications of Ecological
Economics. Island Press. Retrieved 2008-02-13.

15. ^ "Ethanol craze adds to hunger pangs of world's poor". Retrieved 2008-02-14.

[edit]Further reading

 Ammann, Daniel (2009). The King of Oil: The Secret Lives of Marc Rich. New York: St. Martin‘s Press. ISBN 0-312-57074-0.

 The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil - examines the effect of cold war oil shortages during the Special Period.

 Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict by Michael Klare

 Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis by Jeremy Leggett

 The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler, explores a psychology of previous investment

 Eating Fossil Fuels by Dale Allen Pfeiffer

 The Coming Oil Crisis by Colin Campbell

 Energy and American Society - disputes an energy crisis exists in 2007

  The Final Energy Crisis (2nd edition) ed by Sheila Newman (Pluto Press, London, 2008); a study of energy trends, prospects, assets and liabilities in
different political systems and regions
 The End of Oil by Paul Roberts

[edit]External links

Wikimedia Commons has

media related to: Energy
crises

 Worldwide energy shortages

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Peak Oil

Core issues Peak oil · Mitigation of peak oil · Predicting the timing of peak oil · Hubbert peak theory · Olduvai theory

Hirsch report · Oil Depletion Protocol · Price of petroleum · 2000s energy crisis · Energy crisis · Export Land Model · Food vs fuel · Oil reserves · Pickens
Results/responses
Plan ·Transition Towns

Albert Bartlett · Colin J. Campbell · David Goodstein · John Michael Greer · Richard Heinberg · M. King Hubbert · James Kunstler · Jeremy Leggett · Dale Allen
People
Pfeiffer ·Richard Rainwater · Matthew Simmons · Doomer · Richard C. Duncan · Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Books The End of Oil · The Long Emergency · Out of Gas · The Party's Over · Power Down · Beyond Oil

Films A Crude Awakening · The End of Suburbia · Oil Factor · PetroApocalypse Now? · How Cuba Survived Peak Oil · What a Way to Go

Organizations ASPO · The Oil Drum · Energy Watch Group · ODAC · OPEC · OAPEC · IEA · Post Carbon Institute

Other "peaks" Peak coal · Peak copper · Peak phosphorus · Peak gas · Peak uranium · Peak water · Peak wheat
Categories: Energy crises | Emergency management | Peak oil | Resource conflict