Beruflich Dokumente
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Investment is a skill and mastering its tools and techniques requires lots
of efforts in this VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous)
environment surrounding investment. Investment in financial assets has seen
unprecedented growth especially in the last two decades despite turbulent
financial environment. Growth in securities market has been parallel to
the growth of economy. A larger portion of household savings is now being
invested in financial instruments to provide the much needed capital for
growth. Securities markets have also witnessed a number of innovations in
terms of innovative financial products, innovative financial practices and
conducive policies at domestic and global level.
The main motivation of writing this book has been my students, many of
them are now teachers and investment professionals. I have been teaching
the paper of Security Analysis and Portfolio Management at post graduate
level for about 18 years and doing research in various areas of Investment
management including market efficiency, stock market anomalies, mutual
funds, derivatives, socially responsible investing etc.
The present book “Fundamentals of Investments” is written with objective
of providing the user a comprehensive understanding of the investment
environment and investment decision process. It explains various concepts,
tools and techniques related with investment in financial assets with lively
examples and suitable illustrations. The focus of the book is investment
management. There is a comprehensive discussion on the concept of risk and
returns, their sources and measurement, valuation of securities, approaches
to security valuation, portfolio analysis, selection and management including
performance evaluation. The book takes to the reader on a journey of
investment process.
The book comprises of 12 chapters :
Chapters 1 & 2 discusses the investment environment. The entire discussion
presented in Chapters 1 and 2 revolves around the types of investment
I-5
Preface to fourth edition I-6
alternatives, risk return trade off and structure and trading in Indian
Securities Market. Special attention has been given to the role of SEBI and
prohibition of Insider Trading. Latest developments like Algorithmic Trading
and Direct Market Access are also discussed along with the reforms initiated
in the past three decades. The updated information in Chapter 2 is provided.
Chapter 3, Security Analysis, provides at one place the concepts and
measurement of various types of returns and risks in financial investment.
The reader will definitely have an enriching experience and will have a better
understanding of risk and returns concepts which are largely misunderstood.
Chapter 4, presents a comprehensive explanation of fixed income securities,
various types of fixed income securities, valuation of bonds and convertible
debentures, and various types of bond yields. Advanced concepts such as
Bond Duration and Immunisation have also been discussed.
Chapters 5 to 8 provide various approaches to equity analysis such as -
Fundamental analysis, Technical analysis and Efficient Market Hypothesis
with suitable examples. An attempt has been made to provide the necessary
skills and tools for Fundamental Analysis as well as Technical Analysis. The
reader can apply these models and tools and techniques in real life decisions.
Equity valuation models have also been explained with suitable illustrations.
Chapters 9 & 10 deal with portfolio management & portfolio analysis,
portfolio construction and portfolio selection. Capital market theory
is also elaborated. Further these provide detailed explanation of
CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), the most popular model of asset pricing in
finance as well as explanation of need and measure of portfolio performance
evaluation such as Sharpe index, Treynor’s Index and Jensen’s alpha.
Chapters 11 & 12 explain Financial Derivatives and Investor Protection in India.
The salient features of the text presented in this book are:
1. Learning outcomes - Every chapter begins with a list of learning
outcomes which the reader will achieve after successful completion
of the chapter. Its sets the broad framework for the chapter.
2. Main Text - Various concepts and techniques have been explained
in a lucid and well knit manner. Wherever required the explanation
is supplemented by suitable illustrations and examples.
3. Solved Problems - Each chapter provides sufficient number of solved
problems for better understanding and application of the concepts
explained in the main text.
4. Summary - Each chapter provides summary points to recapitulate
the concepts and tools explained in the chapter. It helps the reader
to glance over the entire discussion presented in that chapter.
I-7 Preface to fourth edition
(December 2019)
Acknowledgements
The contribution of the omnipresent, omnipotent and omniscient
invisible hand cannot be expressed in words. I can only say that my
faith in Him becomes more and more intense by each passing day.
I gratefully acknowledge the support and best wishes of my teachers and
students. Special thanks to the following colleagues in Delhi University-
Dr. Neeta Tripathi and Dr. Madhu Sehrawat (DSC), Dr. Pankaj Chaudhry,
Sh. H.N. Tiwari, Dr. Vandana Jain, Sh. Harish Kumar, Ms. Namita Jain,
Ms. Sarita Gautam and Dr. Abhay Jain (SRCC), Dr. Megha Aggarwal,
Ms. Anshika Aggarwal (Rajdhani College), Dr. Deepak Sehgal, Dr. Shalini
Bhatia, Dr. Renu Aggarwal (DDU), Dr. Loveleen Gupta (Hindu College),
Dr. Bhawna Rajput, Ms. Nitu Dabas (AMV), Dr. V.K. Arora, Dr. Naresh
Dhawan (ARSD College), Dr. Sushma Bareja DSC(E), Dr. Renu Aggarwal,
Ms. Renu Yadav, Ms. Mandeep Kaur, Ms. Priyanka (SPM), Dr. Manju
Tanwar (SBSC), Dr. Phoolchand, Dr. Shuchi Pahuja, Sh. Ramesh
Kumar (PGDAV College), T. Jeya Christy (I.P. College), Dr. Vipin Kumar
(AUR), Dr. Vibha Jain (JDM), Dr. Vidisha Garg (Maitreyi), Dr. Gurmeet
Bakshi (JMC), Ms. Sonia Kamboj (Kalindi), Dr. Shalini Pawar (KMV),
Dr. Rajnikant Verma [ZHC(E)], Dr. Sadhna Gupta (ANDC), Dr. Mansi
Bansal, Dr. Sukhvinder Singh, Dr. T. Venugopala [SGTB(D)], Mrs.
Deepa Garg (CVS), Dr. B.R. Sachdeva (DBC), Dr. Vandana Gupta,
Dr. Abha Wadhwa (DDU), Dr. V.K. Aggarwal, Dr. Kavita Arora (SLC),
Dr. Gurcharan Singh), Dr. S.S. Lamba, Dr. Harvinder Kaur, Sh. Balkrishan
(SGGSCC), Dr. Sonali Dua (Gargi College), Dr. Sonal Sharma (Hansraj),
Dr. Anupama Rajput (JDM), Dr. Sarika Bhatnagar, Dr. Janaki (LBC),
Dr. Alka Agarwal (KNC), Dr. Sunaina Sardana (LSR), Dr. Nirmal Jain (MAC),
Dr. Monika Gupta, Ms. Rashmi Shingh (MLN), Dr. G.K. Arora (SGND),
Mrs. Priti Rai (SPM), Dr. Shruti Mathur (ZHC) and Dr. G.R. Luthra (SSC),
Dr. Bawna Rajput (Aditi Mahavidyalaya).
I-9
Acknowledgements I-10
Special thanks to Ms. Priti Aggarwal, Ms. Roshni Garg and Ms. Neerza for
their help. I am also thankful to Dr. Ashu Lamba and Varun Bhandari for
their help.
The book could have never taken its present shape without the great
support and encouragement provided by my family especially my husband
Mr. Yogesh Misra. I cannot forget acknowledging my sons, Advay and
Atulya who received much less attention from their mother, during the
period of manuscript preparation, than they actually deserved.
I am grateful to the staff of Ratan Tata Library for making available
necessary reference material, help and facilities timely.
Last but not the least I am thankful to the publisher Taxmann for bringing
out this book timely.
I-11
SYLLABUS I-12
Unit IV:
Portfolio Analysis and Financial Derivatives
(a) Portfolio and Diversification, Portfolio Risk and Return (b) Mutual Funds
(c) Introduction to Financial Derivatives-Forwards, Futures & Options,
Financial Derivatives Markets in India.
Unit V:
Investor Protection
Role of SEBI and stock exchanges in investor protection; Investor grievances
and their redressal system, insider trading, investors’ awareness and activism.
Spreadsheet is the recommended software for doing basic calculations
in finance and hence can be used for giving students subjects related
assignments for their internal assessment purposes.
II
B.Com. : Semester VI
Paper BC 6.2 (e): Fundamentals of Investment
Unit III:
Approaches to Equity Analysis
Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis and Efficient Market Hypothesis,
Valuation of Equity Shares.
Unit IV:
Portfolio Analysis and Financial Derivatives
(a) Portfolio and Diversification, Portfolio Risk and Return (b) Mutual funds
(c) Introduction to Financial Derivatives-Forwards, Futures & Options,
Financial Derivatives Markets in India.
Unit V:
Investor Protection
Role of SEBI and stock exchanges in investor protection; Investor grievances
and their redressal system, insider trading.
Spreadsheet is the recommended software for doing basic calculations
in finance and hence can be used for giving students subjects related
assignments for their internal assessment purposes.
III
SCHOOL OF OPEN LEARNING,
UNIVERSITY OF DELHI
[B.COM. (HONS.)]
PAPER XX - YEAR III
FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENTS
UNIT II:
2. Fixed Income Securities - Bond features, types of bonds, estimating bond
yields, types of bond risks, default risk and credit rating. (12 Lectures)
UNIT III:
3. Approaches to Equity Analysis - Introduction to fundamental analysis,
technical analysis and efficient market hypothesis, dividend capitalisation
models, and price earnings multiple approach to equity valuation.
(20 Lectures)
UNIT IV:
4. Portfolio Analysis and Financial Derivatives - Portfolio and diversifica-
tion, portfolio risk and return, commodities, real estate, and mutual funds.
Introduction to financial derivatives, financial derivatives markets in India.
(12 Lectures)
UNIT V:
5. Investor Protection - SEBI & role of stock exchanges in investor protection,
investor grievances and their redressal system, insider trading, investors’
awareness and activism. (13 Lectures)
Chapter-heads
Page
I-15
chapter-heads I-16
Page
1
INVESTMENTS : AN OVERVIEW
Learning Outcomes 1
1.1 Investment 2
1.2 Financial Investment vs. Real Investment 2
1.3 Objectives of Investment 3
1.3.1 Features (or Factors affecting Investment) 4
1.4 Speculation 6
1.5 Risk Return Trade off 8
1.6 Investment Environment 9
1.7 Investment Decision Process 13
1.8 Direct Investing and Indirect Investing 16
1.9 Approaches to Investing - Active Investing 18
(Investment) and Passive Investing (Investment)
1.10 Diversification, Hedging and Arbitrage 19
1.11 Impact of Taxes on Investment 20
1.12 Impact of Inflation Investment 21
Summary 22
Test Yourself 22
I-17
CONTENTS I-18
Page
2
Indian Securities Market
Learning Outcomes 26
2.1 Structure of Indian Securities Market 27
2.1.1 Market Participants 27
2.1.2 Market Segments 29
2.2 Trading Mechanism on Exchanges 34
2.2.1 National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited 35
(NSCCL)
2.3 Stock Indices 37
2.4 Sources of Financial Information 41
2.4.1 Types of Information 41
2.4.2 Sources of Information 41
2.4.3 Precautions while using financial information sources 43
2.4A Regulation of Securities Market in India (SEBI) 44
2.4A.1 Reforms Introduced by SEBI 45
2.5 Latest Developments 52
2.6 Other developments in Indian stock market since 1990 54
2.6.1 Screen based trading and Online (Internet based) 54
trading system
2.6.2 Depository system, dematerialisation and scrip less 55
trading
2.6.3 Book building 59
2.6.4 Derivatives 61
2.6.5 Rolling settlement 61
2.6.6 Securities lending scheme 63
2.6.7 Regulation regarding prohibition of Insider Trading 65
2.6.8 Regulation of Unpublished Price Sensitive Informa- 67
tion
Summary 70
Test Yourself 72
3
ANALYSIS OF RETURN AND RISK
Learning Outcomes 75
3.1 Return 77
3.2 Types of Returns and their Calculation 80
3.2.1 Average Return 80
I-19 CONTENTS
Page
3.2.2 Expected Return (Based on probability distribution) 85
3.2.3 Return of a portfolio 86
3.2.4 Holding Period Return 88
3.2.5 Limitations of HPR 88
3.2.5A Effective Annualized Return 89
3.2.6 Absolute Return 90
3.2.7 Risk-adjusted Return 90
3.3 Risk 91
3.3.1 Causes (or Sources) and Types of Risk 91
3.4 Systematic Risk 92
3.5 Unsystematic Risk 94
3.6 Types of Investors 98
3.6.1 Risk Aversion, Utility Analysis and Indifference 98
Curves
3.7 Calculation of Total Risk 101
3.7.1 Coefficient of Variation: A relative measure of Risk 103
3.8 Calculation of Systematic Risk 104
3.9 Unsystematic Risk 107
3.10 Expected Return (based on Capital Asset Pricing Model) 108
3.10.1 Abnormal Return 109
3.11 Impact of Taxes on Investment Return 109
3.12 Impact of Inflation on Return from Investment 111
Solved Problems 112
Summary 126
Test Yourself 127
Project work 133
4
FIXED INCOME SECURITIES - VALUATION,
YIELDS AND RISKS
Learning Outcomes 134
4.1 Bond Fundamentals 135
4.2 Types of Bonds 137
4.3 Bond Valuation (or Valuation of a fixed income security) 143
4.4 Interactions between Bond Value, interest rate 150
(required rate of return) and time to maturity
4.5 Valuation of Convertible debentures 157
CONTENTS I-20
Page
4.6 Valuation of Deep Discount Bonds (or zero coupon bonds) 159
4.7 Bond Yields 160
4.8 Risks in Bonds 171
4.9 Malkiel’s Properties regarding Bond Pricing (Bond Prices, 173
interest rate (or yields) and Time to maturity)
4.10 Bond Duration (Frederick Macaulay Duration) 174
4.11 Credit Rating 177
4.11.1 Credit Rating Agencies in India 179
4.11.2 Credit Rating Methodology 181
4.11.3 Advantages of Credit Rating Agencies 182
4.11.4 Limitations of Credit Rating Agencies 183
Solved Problems 184
Summary 198
Test Yourself 199
Project work 206
5
EQUITY ANALYSIS - Fundamental Analysis
Learning Outcomes 207
5.1 Approaches to Security Analysis 208
5.2 Fundamental Analysis 210
5.3 EIC Framework 211
5.3.1 Economic Analysis 211
5.3.2 Industry Analysis 214
5.3.3 Company Analysis 217
Summary 224
Test Yourself 225
Project work 226
6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Learning Outcomes 227
6.1 Technical Analysis 228
6.2 Difference between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analy- 228
sis
I-21 CONTENTS
Page
6.3 Basic Tenets (Propositions) of Technical Analysis 230
6.4 Tools of Technical Analysis 231
6.4.1 Charts 231
6.4.2 Technical Indicators and Technical Chart Patterns 236
6.5 Specific Stock Indicators 245
6.6 Limitations of Technical analysis 253
Summary 254
Test Yourself 255
Project work 257
7
EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS
Learning Outcomes 258
7.1 Random Walk Theory (RWT) 259
7.2 Efficient Market Hypothesis 259
7.3 Forms of Market Efficiency 260
7.3.1 Weak Form Hypothesis 260
7.3.2 Semi Strong Form 261
7.3.3 Strong Form of Market Efficiency 262
7.4 Implications of EMH 262
7.5 Tests of Market efficiency 263
Summary 267
Test Yourself 268
Project work 269
8
VALUATION OF EQUITY SHARES
Learning Outcomes 270
8.1 Peculiar features of Equity shares 271
8.2 Valuation of Equity share 272
8.2.1 Discounted Cash Flow Models’ Dividend Discount 272
Models
8.2.2 Earnings Multiplier Approach or Price-Earnings Mod- 284
el (P/E based model) for share valuation
8.2.3 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 288
CONTENTS I-22
Page
Solved Problems 289
Summary 302
Test Yourself 302
Project work 307
9
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS AND SELECTION
Learning Outcomes 309
9.1 Portfolio Management Process 310
9.2 Portfolio Analysis - Markowitz Model 313
9.2.1 Portfolio return 313
9.2.2 Portfolio risk 314
9.2.3 Limitation of Markowitz Model of Portfolio Analysis 316
9.3 Portfolio Selection 328
9.3.1 Portfolio Theory of Harry Markowitz (1952) or Mean 329
Variance Optimisation Model
9.3.2 Capital Market Theory 334
9.3.3 From Capital Market Theory to Capital Asset Pricing 340
Model (CAPM)
9.4 Capital Asset Pricing Model 344
9.5 SML and CML 351
9.6 Uses of CAPM 352
9.7 Criticism/Limitations of CAPM 352
Solved Problems 353
Summary 380
Test Yourself 381
Project work 386
10
Portfolio Performance Evaluation
and Mutual Funds
Learning Outcomes 387
10.1 Portfolio Performance Evaluation 388
10.2 Risk Adjusted Measures or techniques for Evaluating Perfor- 389
mance of Portfolios
I-23 CONTENTS
Page
10.3 Mutual Funds 395
10.4 Evolution of Mutual Funds in India 396
10.5 Mutual Fund Schemes 400
10.6 Latest Developments Regarding Mutual Funds 405
10.7 Evaluating Performance of Mutual Funds 410
Solved Problems 414
Summary 420
Test Yourself 420
11
Financial Derivatives - Forwards,
Futures and Options
Learning Outcomes 426
11.1 Introduction to Derivatives 426
11.2 Classification of Derivatives 427
11.3 Participants (or Traders) in Derivatives Market 428
11.4 Forwards 429
11.5 Futures 431
11.5.1 Futures contract terminology 432
11.5.2 Comparison between forwards and futures 433
11.5.3 Types of financial futures contracts 433
11.5.4 Pricing (or valuation) of futures contract (or a for- 435
ward contract)
11.6 Options 438
11.7 Financial Derivatives Market in India 462
Solved Problems 465
Summary 476
Test Yourself 477
12
Investor Protection
Learning Outcomes 482
12.1 Role of Sebi in investor Protection 483
12.2 Investor’s Grievances and Redressal System of sebi 484
12.3 Scores (sebi Complaints Redress System) 486
CONTENTS I-24
Page
12.4 Securities Ombudsman 488
12.4.1 Grounds of complaints 489
12.5 Other Regulators/Authorities to approach for complaints 490
other than those dealt by SEBI
12.6 Reforms brought up by SEBI 491
12.6.1 Amendments in Listing Agreement 491
12.6.2 Regulation regarding prohibition of Insider Trading 495
12.6.3 Regulation of Unpublished Price Sensitive Informa- 497
tion
12.7 Investors’ Awareness 500
12.7.1 SEBI Investor Protection and Education Fund 502
12.8 Role of Stock Exchanges in Investor Protection 504
12.8.1 BSE initiatives for Investor Protection 504
12.8.2 NSE initiatives for Investors’ Protection 507
12.9 Investors’ Activism 509
12.9.1 Investors’ Activism in India 510
Summary 512
Test Yourself 512
B.Com. (Hons.) 2015 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment 515
B.Com. (TYUP) 2016 Paper : Security Analysis & Portfolio 525
Management
B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment 536
B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : Fundamentals of Investment 548
(C-305)
B.Com. (Hons.) 2018 - Sem. VI : Fundamentals of Investment 557
B.Com. 2018 - Sem. VI : Fundamentals of Investment 565
B.Com. (Hons.) 2019 Sem. VI : Fundamentals of Investment 574
B.Com. 2019 Sem. VI : Fundamentals of Investment 582
Mathematical Tables 591
1 INVESTMENTS : AN OVERVIEW
C H A P T E R
leaRnInG oUtcomes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Understand the concept of investment
Differentiate financial investment from real investment
Know various features and objectives of investment
Differentiate between investment and speculation
Analyse investment environment
Understand investment decision process
Differentiate between direct and indirect investing
1.1 Investment
The term investment implies employment of current funds to earn com-
mensurate return in future. It implies sacrifice of current consumption
for expected income in future because the amount which is not spent on
current consumption is saved and invested. An investor foregoes current
consumption and invests his savings in investments in anticipation of higher
future consumption. It is important to note here that investment does not
always guarantee higher future returns. At times losses are also incurred.
Hence the environment of investment is quite uncertain. We are in fact
facing a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) environment in
the context of investments.
“In 1986, Microsoft Corporation first offered its stocks to public and with-
in 10 years, the stocks value had increased over 5000%. In the same year,
Worlds of Wonder also offered its stock to public and ten years later the
company was defunct.”
The word ‘investment’ connotes different meanings to different people.
To a layman, it may mean purchase of shares, bonds or others financial
instruments. To an economist it implies purchase of fixed productive assets
(Capital assets) such as plant and machinery. To a businessman as well,
investment refers to purchase of fixed assets such as land, building, plant,
machinery etc.
Irrespective of its context, the word investment requires commitment of
funds in some assets at present so as to be able to generate higher income
in future.
interest income from these bonds will be exempt from tax. If an individual
is in 30% tax bracket then the effective pre-tax interest rate would be
8.12%
= 11.6%
1- 0.30
(vi) Hedge against Inflation
A good investment should provide hedge against the purchasing power
risk or inflation. The investor must ensure that the return generated by
his investment is higher than the prevailing inflation rate. Then only he is
benefited by making investment, otherwise he is worse off. For example if
the prevailing inflation rate is 8%, the investor should look for investment
options which provide more than 8% return otherwise his real worth of
investment will go down. Inflation erodes purchasing power of money and
hence hedge against inflation is an important consideration in investment.
Generally, equity shares are considered to be a good hedge against inflation
because of their varying return. It is expected that in times of inflation, equity
shares generate higher return. On the other hand fixed income securities
like bonds are not a good hedge against inflation due to the fact that their
interest incomes are fixed and do not increase in times of rising inflation.
(vii) Safety of Capital
Safety of capital should come first. The investor must secure his principal
amount which he invests. That is, he should not be impressed by very high
rate of return on an investment if the amount invested is not safe. For this
credit rating agencies play an important role in providing bond-ratings.
Generally bonds which have lower than AAA ratings are considered to be
not so safe. For example many NBFCs come out with fixed deposit schemes
at an attractive interest rate but safety of investment is less.
1.4 Speculation
Speculation is investment in an asset that offers a potentially large return
but is also very risky; a reasonable probability that the investment will
produce a loss. It can be defined as the assumption of considerable risk
in obtaining commensurate gain. Considerable risk means that the risk is
sufficient to affect the decision. Commensurate gain means a higher risk
premium. Speculative assets are high risk-high return assets and hence
should be invested in with caution. Generally large investors hold specu-
lative assets so as to make quick gains.
Stock market is identified with two types of speculators - bulls and bears.
Bull speculators expect increase in stock prices while bear speculators expect
decline in prices. It must be noted here that speculation, per se is not bad.
Rather it is essential for smooth functioning of stock market and to maintain
7 Speculation Para 1.4
Gambling
Gambling is a game undertaken for someone’s excitement e.g. horse race,
card games, lotteries. Here although the winner makes big money but that
cannot be classified as return because that is not consistent or regular.
Gambling is a zero sum game – someone’s loss is other party’s gain. It is
purely by chance that one party wins over the other. Therefore gambling
is highly uncertain and may involve complete loss of funds put in it.
Have you ever thought that in a bull market everybody is making profit
and become happy. Then why is it that in a bear market everybody is
sad? In that market also bear speculators make profit.
Hint : In a bull market, investors net worth increases while in a bear
market company’s market capitalization falls and hence investors wealth
decline. Only speculators make money in such a market.
Para 1.5 Investments : An overview 8
broad based market index. Buy and hold is also termed as passive invest-
ing. In case of passive investing the investor is content with the market
return at market risk. He does not expect to earn returns over and above
the one that is given by the market. The idea behind passive investing is
that nobody can earn superior returns in an efficient market. Hence it is
better to buy and hold the market portfolio or market index which is the
underlying asset of the Index Funds or ETFs. Passive investing does not
require much investment skills and is not a time consuming or continuous
process. Once investment is made in Index fund, the investor holds it over
the investment horizon.
Rs. 2450 and simultaneously take a sell position on NSE and sell the share
at higher price of Rs. 2500. By doing this he makes a risk less profit of
Rs. 50 (i.e. 2500-2450). However this arbitrage opportunity will be exploited
by all the active investors and hence soon the price of SBI share will decline
on NSE (due to selling pressure) and rise on BSE (due to demand pressure).
This arbitrage will come to an end when the market price of SBI becomes
equal in both the exchanges. Therefore arbitrage in fact works as a process
of bringing equilibrium. It must be noted that here we assume that there
is no restriction on short selling.
Summary
1. Investment is employment of current funds to earn commensurate return in
future.
2. Investment may be classified as Real investment and Financial Investment.
3. Real investment is investment in tangible assets which are physical assets
such as plant, machinery, equipments etc.
4. Financial assets are assets that represent claims against the investee or own-
ership claims over real assets such as equity shares, bonds, debentures etc.
5. Speculation is taking high risk in expectation of high and quick returns.
6. Risk and return move together. Hence there is a risk return tradeoff.
7. The investment environment comprises of - securities, securities markets and
intermediaries in securities market.
8. There are six steps in Investment decision process - setting up of investment
policy, making an inventory of securities, security analysis, portfolio con-
struction, analysis and selection, portfolio revision and portfolio performance
evaluation.
9. All feasible portfolios are not efficient.
10. Selection of portfolios is as per risk return preference of the investor.
11. There are two modes of investing - direct investing and Indirect investing.
12. Direct investing means buying and selling of securities by the investor himself.
13. Indirect investing means investment in a mutual funds, ETF or investment
company.
14. Diversification is the process of investing in a large number of unrelated
securities so as to reduce risk.
15. Hedging means taking a counter position so as to reduce risk.
16. Arbitrage means taking simultaneous positions in different markets to exploit
price differential across markets.
17. Arbitrage brings in equilibrium in security market.
18. Investment decisions are affected by taxes and inflation.
Test Yourself
True/False
i. Speculation is always bad.
ii. No asset is risk-free.
iii. Financial investment is done in tangible physical assets.
iv. There are only two features of investment -return and risk.
23 Test yourself
v. Same asset cannot held for the purpose of investment and speculation.
vi. Investment is employment of current funds to earn commensurate return in
future.
vii. Speculation is taking high risk in expectation of high and quick returns.
viii. Risk and return do not move together.
ix. Optimal portfolios are same for all investors.
x. All feasible portfolios are efficient.
xi. Direct investing means investment in a mutual funds, ETF or investment
company.
xii. Diversification is the process of investing in a large number of same type of
securities so as to reduce risk.
xiii. Hedging is possible when securities are negatively related.
xiv. Arbitrage means taking simultaneous positions in different markets to exploit
price differential across markets.
xv. Arbitrage brings in equilibrium in security market.
xvi. Arbitrage opportunities exist for long term in securities market.
xvii. Taxes do not affect investment decisions.
xviii. In times of inflation equity shares is a better investment than bonds.
(Ans i. F, ii. T, iii. F, iv. F, v. F, vi. T, vii. T, viii. F, ix F, x. F, xi. F, xii F, xiii. T, xiv.
T. xv. T, xvi. F, xvii. F, xviii. T)
Theory Questions
1. Explain the term ‘Investment’ and its various types. [Paras 1.1, 1.2]
2. What is Financial Investment? How is it different from real investment?
[Para 1.2]
3. What are the objectives of investment? Explain in detail. [Para 1.3]
4. Differentiate between investment and speculation. Can the same asset be
held for investment by one investor and speculation by the other? [Para 1.4]
5. Define the term Investment. How is it different from speculation?
[Paras 1.1 & 1.4]
6. Explain the following :
i. Diversification [Para 1.10]
ii. Hedging [Para 1.10]
iii. Arbitrage [Para 1.10]
iv. Direct investing [Para 1.8]
v. Indirect investing [Para 1.8]
Investments : An overview 24
LearnInG outcoMeS
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Understand the structure in Indian securities market
Know various participants and segments of Indian securities
market
Differentiate between primary and secondary markets
Explain BSE, NSE and OTC market in India
Explain SME exchanges such as EMERGE of NSE
Explain trading mechanism in stock market
Explain screen based trading and trading mechanism of NSE
List out and Explain various stock indices in BSE and NSE
know about SEBI, the securities market regulator in India
know various reforms and latest developments in Indian securities
market
understand the concept and process of depository, book building,
rolling settlement, stock lending scheme, insider trading etc.
26
27 Structure of indian securities Market Para 2.1
be split into two levels. Primary markets, where new securities are issued
and secondary markets where existing securities can be bought and sold.
Secondary markets can further be split into organised exchanges, such
as stock exchanges and over-the-counter where individual parties come
together and buy or sell securities directly. Another classification of securities
market is on the basis of the tenure of the securities. Such a classification
has two markets- Capital market and Money market. Capital market is the
market for long term securities or funds while money market is the market
for short term funds or securities. Although Stock market is a part of Capital
Market, in practice the terms capital market, securities market and stock
market are used interchangeably.
No. of Amount No. of Amount No. of Amount No. of Amount No. of Amount
Issues (Rs. Issues (Rs. Issues (Rs. Issues (Rs. Issues (Rs.
Crore) Crore) Crore) Crore) Crore)
Category Wise
Issue Type
Source : SEBI
b. Secondary Market
The secondary market is the market for sale or purchase of already
issued securities. A well functioning secondary market is a prerequi-
site for the growth of primary market. An efficient secondary market
provides the much needed liquidity and marketability in financial
system. The secondary market enables those who hold securities to
adjust their holdings in response to changes in their assessment of
risk and return. Investors also sell securities for cash to meet their
liquidity needs. The price signals, which subsume all information
about the issuer and his business including, associated risk, generated
in the secondary market, help the primary market in allocation of
funds.
Secondary market essentially operates through two mediums:
i. Over the counter (OTC) market - This market is informal and
trades are negotiated here. Most of the trades in government
securities take place in this market. Further, all the spot trades
where securities are traded for immediate delivery and payment
occur in OTC market.
ii. Exchange traded market - Stock exchanges provide platform for
purchase and sale of securities by investors. The stock market
31 Structure of indian securities Market Para 2.1
Settlement
Settlement is a two way process which involves legal transfer of title to
funds and securities or other assets on the settlement date. NSCCL has also
devised mechanism to handle various exceptional situations like security
shortages, bad delivery, company objections, auction settlement etc.
NSCCL has empanelled 13 clearing banks to provide banking services to
trading members and has established connectivity with both the deposi-
tories for electronic settlement of securities.
Clearing
Clearing is the process of determination of obligations, after which the
obligations are discharged by settlement.
NSCCL has two categories of clearing members: trading members and
custodians.
Trading members can trade on a proprietary basis or trade for their clients.
All proprietary trades become the member’s obligation for settlement. Where
trading members’ trade on behalf of their clients they could trade for nor-
mal clients or for clients who would be settling through their custodians.
The whole trading process at NSE can be summarised in Fig 2.1.
NSE
8 9
DEPOSITORIES NSCCL CLEARING
BANK
6 7
10 5 2 3 4 11
CUSTODIANS CMs
BSE NSE
Broad Market Indices Broad Market Indices
S&P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty
S&P BSE100 CNX Nifty Junior
S&P BSE 200 LIX 15
S&P BSE 500 LIX15 Midcap
S&P BSE Mid Cap CNX 100
S&P BSE Small Cap CNX 200
S&P BSE All Cap CNX 500
S&P BSE Large Cap Nifty Midcap 50
S&P BSE Large Mid Cap CNX Midcap
S&P BSE Mid small Cap CNX Smallcap Index
S&P BSE Mid cap select India VIX
Sectoral indices-
Sectoral indices- CNX Auto Index
39 Stock indices Para 2.3
BSE NSE
Broad Market Indices Broad Market Indices
S&P BSE Auto CNX Bank Index
S&P BSE Bankex CNX Energy Index
S&P BSE Consumer durables CNX Finance Index
S&P BSE Capital Goods CNX FMCG Index
S&P BSE Fast Moving Consume Goods CNX IT Index
S&P BSE Healthcare CNX Media Index
S&P BSE Information Technology CNX Metal Index
S&P BSE Metal CNX Pharma Index
S&P BSE Oil and Gas CNX PSU Bank Index
S&P BSE Power CNX Realty Index
S&P BSE Realty IISL CNX Industry Indices
S&P BSE Teck Thematic indices -
Thematic Indices- CNX Commodities Index
S&P BSE GREENEX CNX Consumption Index
S&P BSE CARBONEX CPSE Index
S&P BSE PSU CNX Infrastructure Index
S&P BSE India Infrastructure Index CNX MNC Index
S&P BSE CPSE CNX PSE Index
S&P BSE India Manufacturing Index CNX Service Sector Index
S&P BSE IPO CNX Shariah25
S&P BSE SME IPO CNX Nifty Shariah/CNX 500 Shariah
Index
Three prominent indices are explained below:
1. BSE SENSEX : Sensex, the oldest market index for equities, is a
free-float market-weighted stock market index of 30 largest, most
liquid and financially sound companies listed at BSE Ltd. The 30
companies represent various industrial sectors of the economy. It
was created in 1986 and provides time series data from April 1979
onward. The Free-float Methodology takes into consideration only
the free-float market capitalization of a company for the purpose of
index calculation and assigning weight to stocks in the Index. Free-
float market capitalization takes into consideration only those shares
issued by the company that are readily available for trading in the
market. It generally excludes promoters’ holding, government holding,
strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will not come to the
Para 2.3 Indian Securities Market 40
market for trading in the normal course. In other words, the market
capitalization of each company in a Free-float index is reduced to the
extent of its readily available shares in the market. Till date, Sensex
is considered as the pulse of the domestic stock markets in India.
2. CNX NIFTY : The CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index
accounting for 23 sectors of the economy. It is used for a variety of
purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index based deriv-
atives and index funds. It was created in 1996.
CNX Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Pro-
ducts Ltd. (IISL). IISL is India’s first specialised company focused
upon the index as a core product.
u The CNX Nifty Index represents about 66.17% of the free float
market capitalization of the stocks listed on NSE as on March
31, 2015.
u The total traded value for the last six months ending March
2015 of all index constituents is approximately 46.22% of the
traded value of all stocks on the NSE.
u Impact cost of the CNX Nifty for a portfolio size of Rs. 50 lakhs
is 0.06% for the month March 2015.
u CNX Nifty is professionally maintained and is ideal for derivatives
trading.
3. S&P BSE GREENEX
For promoting green investing in India, recently Bombay Stock
Exchange (BSE) has launched “BSE-GREENEX” on 22nd February,
2012. It is the 25th dynamic index hosted on the Bombay Stock
Exchange. “It is a first veritable step in creating an inclusive market
based mechanism for the promotion of energy efficient practices
amongst the largest business entities in India. It is a new index of
sustainability stocks that helps investors looking for green companies.
GREENEX comprises of 20 companies from the broader BSE 100
index that meet energy efficient norms, allowing investors to derive
benefit from the related cost savings. The index allows investors to
track companies that invest in energy efficient practices. It allows
asset managers to create products to help investors put their money
in green enterprises and make green investments. GREENEX is tar-
geted at retail as well as institutional investors such as pension funds
looking for investment in companies with strong long-term prospects
and develop green financial products” (The Hindu, February 23, 2012).
41 SOURCES OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION Para 2.4
Functions of SEBI
The Preamble of SEBI describes its basic functions. It reads as:
“...to protect the interests of investors in securities and to promote the
development of, and to regulate the securities market and for matters
connected therewith or incidental thereto”.
Section 11 of SEBI Act lays down that it shall be the duty of SEBI to protect
the interests of the investors in securities and to promote the development
of, and to regulate the securities markets by such measures as it thinks fit.
To achieve the aforementioned objectives, the Board may undertake the
following measures:
u regulating the business in stock exchanges and any other securities
markets;
u registering and regulating the working of stock brokers, sub-brokers,
share transfer agents, bankers to an issue, trustees of trust deeds,
registrars to an issue, merchant bankers, underwriters, portfolio
managers, investment advisers and such other intermediaries who
may be associated with securities markets in any manner;
u registering and regulating the working of the depositories, partici-
pants, custodians of securities, foreign institutional investors, credit
rating agencies and such other intermediaries as the Board may, by
notification, specify in this behalf;
45 Regulation of securities market in India Para 2.4A
documents with SEBI and the stock exchanges was done away
with.
xiv. Mandatory Requirement of Permanent Account Number (PAN)
for All Transactions in the Securities Market - SEBI stipulated
that PAN would be the sole identification number for all partic-
ipants in the securities market, irrespective of the amount of
transaction with effect from July 02, 2007. The objective was
to strengthen the ‘Know Your Client’ (KYC) norms through a
single identification number for all participants in the securities
market for facilitating sound audit trail.
xv. Corporate Debt Market - In order to develop a sound corporate
debt market in India, SEBI took a number of policy initiatives
with respect to the following areas:
i. setting up of reporting platforms for corporate bonds,
ii. setting up of trading platform for corporate bonds,
iii. issues pertaining to trading in corporate bonds,
iv. making amendments to the listing agreement for deben-
tures,
v. issuing securitised debt instruments regulations,
vi. evolving policy guidelines on debenture trustees,
vii. introducing Repos in corporate bonds,
viii. facilitating setting up of quote dissemination platforms,
ix. simplifying corporate bond issuance norms and
x. framing of draft issue and listing regulations for corpo-
rate bonds.
xvi. Setting up of SME Exchange - SEBI decided to put in place a
framework for setting up of new exchange or separate platform
of existing stock exchange having nationwide terminals for
SME. In order to operationalise the said framework, necessary
changes have been made to applicable regulations, circulars
etc. As per the framework, market making has been made
mandatory in respect of all scrips listed and traded on SME
exchange.
xvii. Application Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) - ASBA is
the acronym for Application Supported by Blocked Amount.
ASBA is an application containing an authorization to block
the application money in the bank account, for subscribing
to an issue. If an investor is applying through ASBA, his appli-
Para 2.4A Indian Securities Market 50
portion is conducted like a normal public issue after the Book Built
portion, during which the issue price is determined.
Greenshoe option is a special provision in an IPO prospectus, which allows
underwriters to sell investors more shares than originally planned by the
issuer. This would normally be done if the demand for a security issue
proves higher than expected. Legally referred to as an over-allotment option.
2.6.4 Derivatives
A derivative is a contract that derives its value from some other underlying
asset. Derivatives can be commodity derivatives or financial derivatives
depending upon whether the underlying asset is a physical asset or financial
asset. Financial derivatives were introduced in Indian stock market in June
2000 on the recommendation of Dr. L.C. Gupta committee on derivatives
which submitted its recommendations in 1998 for the phased introduction
of derivative products in India. At present following derivatives are avail-
able in futures and options segment of BSE and NSE. Detailed discussion
about derivatives have been provided in Chapter 11.
i. Stock index futures
ii. Stock index options
iii. Stock options
iv. Stock futures
Since the trades done during a day in a Rolling Settlement except those
in scrips in “Z” group are netted, one can square off the transaction on
that day only. The trades in “Z” group scrips are not allowed to be netted
and are settled on a trade-to-trade basis. As such, the squaring off should
be done before close of the market hours on that day. It may be clearly
understood that the trades during a day cannot be squared off or netted
with transactions on the earlier or subsequent days.
Trade to Trade in Rolling Settlement: SEBI has mandated that trading
and settlement in all listed securities would take place only in Compulsory
Rolling Settlement (CRS). Further, it had directed all companies to sign
agreements and establish connectivity with both the depositories latest
by September 30, 2001. SEBI had further mandated that the trading and
settlement in securities of those companies which have failed to make the
required demat arrangements by the above stipulated date, be shifted to
Trade-to-Trade basis. Once any scrip is shifted to Trade-to-Trade basis,
transactions in the scrip are not netted and all purchase and sale trans-
actions in the same scrip in single settlement are to be settled separately.
For example, the trading and settlement in securities of XYZ Ltd. have
been shifted to Trade-to-Trade. An investor has bought 100 shares of this
company in the morning on April 1, 2008 and he squares off purchase of
these 100 shares by selling the same in the trading hours on the same day.
In this case, his purchase and sale transactions would not be netted and
the investor would be required to give delivery of 100 shares against his
sale transaction and payment for the purchase transaction of 100 shares.
Advantage of Rolling settlement over weekly settlement
Internationally, the Rolling Settlements have been accepted as the best
method of settling trades. Therefore, Rolling Settlements represent the
best international practice.
Since in the Rolling Settlements, trades are settled earlier than in the
Account Period settlement, the settlement risk is lower. The reason for
this is that in weekly settlements, the cumulative position built up over
various days was consolidated, netted and settled on a single day. This
resulted in higher deliveries to be settled for the trades done during the
week. Since in Rolling Settlements, trades on a particular day are settled
separately from the trades done on any other day, the settlement risk is
considerably reduced. Moreover, the sellers and buyers get the monies
and securities for their sale and purchase transactions respectively earlier
than in Account Period settlements. This also achieves international best
practice for settling trades.
63 Indian Stock market since 1990 Para 2.6
(ii) not attract the obligation to make an open offer under the
takeover regulations but where the board of directors of the
company is of informed opinion that the proposed transaction
is in the best interests of the company and the information that
constitute unpublished price sensitive information is dissemi-
nated to be made generally available at least two trading days
prior to the proposed transaction being effected.
The regulation also instructs the board of directors to require the
parties to execute agreements to contract confidentiality and non-dis-
closure obligations on the part of such parties and such parties shall
keep information so received confidential.
2. Trading when in possession of unpublished price sensitive informa-
tion.
Regulation 4 prohibits the insiders to trade in securities that are listed
or proposed to be listed on a stock exchange when in possession of
unpublished price sensitive information.
Exemptions: –
the transaction is an off-market inter-se transfer between promot-
ers who were in possession of the same unpublished price sensitive
information;
in the case of non-individual insiders: –
(a) the individuals who were in possession of such unpub-
lished price sensitive information were different from
the individuals taking trading decisions
(b) appropriate and adequate arrangements were in place
to ensure that these regulations are not violated;
(iii) the trades were pursuant to a trading plan.
3. Trading Plans
Regulation 5 gives an option to the persons who may be in posses-
sion of unpublished price sensitive information and enabling them
to trade in securities in a compliant manner. This provision enables
the formulation of a trading plan by an insider to enable him to plan
for trades to be executed in future.
(1) An insider shall be entitled to formulate a trading plan and
present it to the compliance officer for approval and public
disclosure pursuant to which trades may be carried out on his
behalf in accordance with such plan.
69 Indian Stock market since 1990 Para 2.6
Summary
u The Securities Market refers to the markets for those financial instruments,
claims or obligations that are commonly and readily transferable by sale.
u The securities market has three categories of participants-the issuer of secu-
rities, the investors in the securities and the intermediaries.
u The Securities Market has two segments - the new issues (primary) market
and the stock (secondary) market.
u The primary market provides the channel for creation and sale of new secu-
rities, while the secondary market deals in securities previously issued.
71 Summary
u Indian securities market has switched to screen based fully automated trading
system.
u A stock market index is created by selecting a group of stocks that are repre-
sentative of the whole market or a specified sector or segment of the market.
u There are broad based stock indices such as SENSEX and NIFTY as well
as sectoral indices (BANKEX, CNX IT etc.) and Thematic indices (such as
GREENEX).
u On NSE, strategy based indices are also available such as CNX Dividend
Opportunity Index.
u The Securities and Exchange Board of India is the regulator of capital market
in India.
u SEBI has undertaken a number of reforms in Indian securities markets such
as – screen based trading, dematerialisation, rolling settlement, book building
process, financial derivatives, securities lending scheme and prohibition of
insider trading.
u Any order that is generated using automated execution logic is known as
Algorithmic Trading.
u Direct Market Access (DMA) is a facility which allows brokers to offer clients
direct access to the exchange trading system through the broker’s infrastruc-
ture without manual intervention by the broker
u Depository system has many benefits and has completely eliminated the risk
of bad deliveries.
u Under book building process there is no fixed price of the new issue of shares
(IPO or FPO).
u Book building ensures efficient pricing of an IPO or RPO.
u Derivatives have been introduced in India since June 2000. At present stock
index futures, stock index options, stock options and stock futures are being
traded on NSE and BSE.
u Rolling settlement means that the trades on a particular day are necessarily
settled after a specified number of days and cannot be carried forward. At
present T+1 rolling settlement is prevalent on BSE and NSE which means
that trades on a particular day are settled after 1 day.
u Securities Lending Scheme, 1997 is the scheme for lending of securities
through an approved intermediary to a borrower under an agreement for a
specified period.
u Insider trading refers to transaction in securities of a public listed company,
by any insider based unpublished price sensitive information for his personal
advantage.
u SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations, 2015 replaced the 1992
Regulations.
Indian Securities Market 72
Test Yourself
True/False
i. The primary market is market for new securities.
ii. The secondary market deals in securities previously issued.
iii. Exchanges in India follow non-screen based and non-automated trading
system till date.
iv. Rolling settlement has increased the trading cycle.
v. Insider trading refers to use of financial statements information by company
officer.
vi. SEBI was given statutory powers in the year 1988.
vii. SEBI is the market regulator of Indian capital market.
viii. Trading plan allows insiders possessing unpublished price sensitive informa-
tion to trade in securities in a compliant manner.
ix. There are only broad based stock indices such as SENSEX and NIFTY avail-
able in Indian stock market.
x. CNX Dividend Opportunity Index is a strategy based Index.
xi. Depository system has many benefits and has completely eliminated the risk
of bad deliveries.
xii. Book building ensures efficient pricing of an IPO or FPO.
xiii. Only stock index options and futures are available in the derivatives market
in India.
xiv. Rolling settlement means that the trades on a particular day are necessarily
settled after a specified number of days and cannot be carried forward.
xv. Securities Lending Scheme, 1997 is the scheme for lending of securities
through an approved intermediary to a borrower under an agreement for a
specified period.
xvi. Insider trading is primarily concerned with the exploitation of unpublished
price sensitive information.
xvii. SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations, 2015 replaced the 1992
Regulations.
xviii. Any order that is generated using automated execution logic is known as
Algorithmic Trading.
xix. Direct Market Access (DMA) facility is not available in India.
[Answers: (i) T (ii)T (iii) F (iv) F (v) F (vi) F (vii) T (viii) T (ix) F (x) T (xi) T (xii) T (xiii)
F (xiv) T (xv) T (xvi) T (xvii) T (xviii) T (xix) F]
73 Test yourself
Theory Questions
1. Differentiate between:
a. Primary Market and Secondary Market [Para 2.1]
b. BSE and NSE [Para 2.1]
c. SENSEX and NIFTY [Para 2.3]
2. How the trading in secondary market has evolved over the years? Explain
how clearing and settlement of equities take place at any recognised stock
exchange. [Para 2.2]
3. Write short notes on:
a. Direct Market Access [Para 2.5]
b. Internet Trading [Para 2.5]
c. Algorithmic Trading [Para 2.5]
d. SME Exchange [Para 2.4]
e. Dematerialisation (B.Com(H)DU 2013) [Para 2.6.4]
f. Book building process (B.Com(H)DU 2011) [Para 2.6.3]
g. Rolling settlement (B.Com(H)DU 2009) [Para 2.6.5]
h. SENSEX (B.Com(H)DU 2011) [Para 2.3]
i. NIFTY [Para 2.3]
j. GREENEX [Para 2.3
k. Role of SEBI [Para 2.4]
4. What do you mean by stock index? How are they useful? [Para 2.3]
5. How the board of SEBI is constituted? What are the major functions per-
formed by the board? [Para 2.4]
6. Write the procedure for transacting in depository system in brief and mention
its advantages to the company. (B.Com(H)DU 2011) [Para 2.6.2]
7. Discuss the developments and emerging trends in Indian Capital Market after
the constitution of SEBI in India. (B.Com(H)DU 2007) [Paras 2.4, 2.5, 2.6]
8. Briefly explain the procedure for trading in securities in India.
(B.Com(H)DU 2008) [Para 2.2]
9. Outline the reforms introduced by SEBI in primary and secondary markets
in India. (B.Com(H)DU 2010) [Paras 2.5 & 2.6]
10. “SEBI has initiated a lot of reforms to make the market safer and advanced
for investors”. Shed some light on those reforms. [Paras 2.5 & 2.6]
11. Stock exchanges play an important role in the Indian Securities Market.
Discuss the statement mentioning the role played by BSE and NSE in this
regard. [Para 2.2]
Indian Securities Market 74
12. What do you mean by Insider Trading? Who is an insider as per SEBI Regu-
lations? [Para 2.6.7]
13. Define the terms ‘unpublished price sensitive information’ and ‘connected
person’ as per SEBI Regulations on Insider Trading? [Para 2.8]
14. What are the disclosure requirements as per SEBI Regulations on Insider
Trading? [Paras 2.6.7 & 2.6.8]
15. “Stock exchanges provide the linkage between the savings in the household
sector and the investments in the corporate sector” explain.
(B.Com. (H), GGSIPU, 2015)
16. What is a stock exchange? What are its functions? How are securities traded
at the stock exchange? (B.Com.(H), GGSIPU, 2017)
17. Discuss the measures taken by SEBI to regulate the operations at stock ex-
changes. Explain the guidelines of SEBI pertaining to listing of securities.
(B.Com. (H), GGSIPU, 2017)
3 ANALYSIS OF RETURN AND RISK
C H A P T E R
LEARNING OUTCOMES
After reading this chapter you will be able to:
Understand the concept of return and risk of a security.
Calculate return of a security and portfolio.
Compare different investment alternatives in terms of expected
returns.
Differentiate between systematic and unsystematic risk.
Calculate beta of a security and explain its significance.
Estimate total risk, systematic risk and unsystematic risk on a
security.
Determine the effect of taxes on investment decision.
Analyse the impact of inflation on investment return.
property expecting that its price will go up in future. At that time he can sell
the property and make capital gain. Some people also invest in Gold and
other precious metals expecting a reward i.e. increase in the price of these
metals. Therefore the primary motivating or driving force of an investment
is the reward attached with it popularly known as RETURN. This return
has two parts – revenue return (i.e. interest or dividend) and Capital gain
(or loss) which arises due to change in the price of the investment. Some
investments may have only capital gain or loss due to price change as they
do not provide any revenue return to the investor. For example if an investor
invests in the shares of company which does not pay dividends, then his
return from the shares will comprise only the second part, i.e. change in
price leading to capital gain or loss.
However there is always a possibility that the actual return may not be same
as the expected or desired return. This may be due to a number of factors
such as changes in the economic environment, financial crisis, global
slowdown, poor performance of the company etc. Hence there is always a
RISK attached with investment that the actual return will be different from
the expected return. Risk is defined as the variability in expected returns.
It must be noted that no investment is risk free (except the hypothetical
risk free asset). Returns and risks move together. An investor can have
higher returns only when he is willing to undertake higher risk. However
the interesting fact is that investors like Return but they dislike Risk.
Therefore every investment decision requires careful analysis of Return
and Risk.
Two basic attributes of any investment are Return and Risk. Different
investment products have different levels of risk and return and hence
their estimation and analysis is an important aspect of investment decision
making. It must be noted that return and risk move in tandem i.e. one can
have higher return only at a higher level of risk and vice versa. An inves-
tor should make his investment decision depending upon his risk-return
preferences and analysis of risk-return features of the investment options.
For this we analyze every security in terms of its return and risk. This is
known as security analysis. However it is rare that an investor invests only
in one type of security or in just one security. Investors try to reduce their
exposure to risk by holding multiple securities or a large variety of securi-
ties. It is often said that “ Do not put all your eggs in one basket”. The same
is true in case in investments. A rational investor should hold a diversified
portfolio of assets. A portfolio is a combination of two or more securities.
Hence analysis of portfolio return and risk is essential to know the total
return and total risk exposure.
77 Return Para 3.1
This chapter provides a clear understanding of the Return and Risk in the
context of securities. A brief discussion of portfolio return is also provided
here. For detailed discussion on Portfolio Return and Risk please refer
Chapter 9.
RETURN
3.1 Return
Return may be defined as total income (or cash inflows including price
change) generated by investment expressed as a percentage of the cost
of investment. Income from an investment may be revenue income (such
as interest and dividends) and capital income (or capital gain or loss). The
first part i.e. revenue income is generated on regular basis say every year.
The second part i.e. capital gain or loss is the difference in the end price (or
selling price) and beginning price (or purchase price) of the investment. It
is generated only at the end of the investment period.
Return from a financial asset :
A financial asset which is purchased at “Purchase price”, held for a year,
provides some income at the end of the year and is sold at “Selling price”
will generate the following total return given in equation (3.1).
Return =Income from Asset + (Selling price- Purchase price) × 100.........(3.1)
Purchase Pr ice
Return on an Equity share
Return on an equity share held for one year, can be calculated as under:
D1 + (P1 − P0 )
Return on equity share = ……………………………………….(3.1A)
P0
Where
D1 = Dividend Received at the end of the year
P0 = Cost of Investment or Share Price in the beginning of the year
P1 = Share Price at the end of the year
Therefore there are two components of Return on an equity share - Dividend
yield and Capital appreciation. Dividend yield is that part of return which is
due to cash inflows in the form of dividend. Capital appreciation (popularly
known as capital gain) is that part of total return which arises due to change
in price. Hence it may be positive (capital gain) or negative (capital loss):
Div (P1 − P0 )
Return on equity share = +
P0 P0
= Div yield ± Capital gain yield (or Capital loss)
Para 3.1 Analysis of return & Risk 78
It may be noted that in most of the equity shares, dividend yield generally
forms a very small portion of the total return. Hence returns on an equity
share usually come primarily from price change or capital gains yield.
Illustration 3.1 : Mr. Misra purchased a share of RTL Ltd. at a price of
Rs. 950. He sold the share after receiving dividend income of Rs. 50 at the
end of one year, at a price of Rs. 1075. Calculate his total return from the
bond. How much is the dividend yield and how much is capital gain yield
on this share?
50 + (1075 − 950)
Solution: Return from share = × 100
950
= 18.42%
Div (P1 − P0 )
We know that Return on equity share = +
P0 P0
= Div yield ± Capital gain yield (or Capital loss)
50
= + (1075-950)
950 950
= 0.0526 + 0.1316
= 0.1842 or 18.42%
Hence dividend yield is 5.26% and capital gain yield is 13.16%.
Return on a bond:
Return on a bond held for one year, can be calculated as under:
I 1 + (P1 − P0 )
Return on bond = ……………………………………….(3.1B)
P0
Where
I1 = Interest Received at the end of the year
P0 = Cost of Investment or bond Price in the beginning of the year
P1 = Selling price or bond Price at the end of the year
Therefore there are two components of Return on a bond - Interest yield
and Capital appreciation. Interest yield is that part of return which is due to
cash inflows in the form of interest. Capital appreciation (popularly known
as capital gain) is that part of total return which arises due to change in
price. Hence it may be positive (capital gain) or negative (capital loss):
Int (P1 − P0 )
Return on bond = +
P0 P0
= Interest yield ± Capital gain yield (or Capital loss)
79 Return Para 3.1
Illustration 3.2 : Mr. Misra purchased a Rs. 1000, 10% bond maturing after
5 years at a price of Rs. 950. He sold the bond after receiving interest in-
come at the end of one year at a price of Rs. 975. Calculate his total return
from the bond.
For the year 2008 Total return = 1 + (160 − 150) × 100 = 0.0733 or 7.33%
150
And so on. The following Table shows total return in each year
Year Total Return
2008 7.33%
2009 7.5%
2010 7.06%
2011 7.22%
2012 -3.16%
2013 13.88%
2014 41.5%
2015 -6.43%
Para 3.2 Analysis of return & Risk 80
Dec) 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were Rs.100, 118, 130, 120, 140
and Rs. 160. The share did not pay any dividend over these years. Calculate
average return of RPL Ltd.’s shares. Also interpret the result.
S = 51.42
51.42
Average Return =
5
(Based on Arithmetic Mean)
= 10.28%
Thus on the basis of historical data the average annual return on RPL Ltd
share has been 10.28%.
Interpretation:
The significance of this average return is that if Mr. X decides to buy the
share at the prevailing price, he may expect to generate an average annual
return, of 10.28% from this share, although there is no guarantee of this
to happen. This is because of the variable nature of returns from equity
shares. Please note that in year 2012 the share generated a return of 16.67%
while in 2011 it incurred a loss of 7.69%.
Illustration 3.5 : (When Dividends are also present) : In Illustration 3.4 what
will be average return if RPL Ltd. declared and paid the following dividends
over the past 5 years.
Para 3.2 Analysis of return & Risk 82
However the value of share is Rs. 20 i.e. equal to purchase price and hence
actually investor has not made any return over two years period. It must be
noted that if we use average return (based on simple average or arithmetic
mean) in this case we will get an incorrect value of the return.
Hence it is better to calculate average return based on Geometric mean
as discussed below.
(b) Average Return (Based on Geometric Mean)
Average returns are often calculated using geometric average which con-
siders the effect of compounding. It must be noted that compounding is
extremely important in investment. Average return based on geometric
mean is actually average return compounded annually. It can be calculated
as given below :
1
Average Return (Based on G.M.) = ((1 + R )(1 + R ) (1 + R ) ... × (1 + R ))
1 2 3 N
N −1
…(3.3)
Illustration 3.8 : Calculate average return using geometric mean from the
following data
Year 1 2 2 4
Return (%) 18 10.17 -7.69 16.67
Solution :
Average Return (Based on G.M.)
1
= 1.088 – 1
= 8.8% p.a.
Illustration 3.9 : Mr. Pandey invested Rs.100 in a mutual fund which earned
25% annually for 3 years. Unfortunately it lost 75% during the forth year
and earned 25% annually for next 4 years. Can we say that a total of 100%
return is earned by Mr. Pandey, over a period of 8 years which is 12.5% p.a.?
Solution : The value of mutual fund at the end of each year is given below :
Year Value of M.F. Description
Investment
0 100 i.e. Invested amount
1 125 i.e. a return of 25% in 1st year i.e. 100 (1 + 0.25)
2 156.25 i.e. 125 (1 + 0.25)
3 195.31 i.e. 156.25 (1 + 0.25)
4 48.83 i.e. 195.31 (1 – 0.75) a loss of 75%
5 61.04 i.e. 48.83 (1 + 0.25)
6 76.29 i.e. 61.04 (1 + 0.25)
7 95.37 i.e. 76.29 (1 + 0.25
8 119.21 i.e. 95.37 (1+0.25)
When we use arithmetic mean to calculate average annual return we get.
Average Return (Based on A.M.)
0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 − 0.75 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25
= 8
1
=
8
= 12.5%
85 Types of returns and their calculation Para 3.2
However
If we use G.M. to calculate average return then we get the accurate answer :
Average return (Based on G.M.)
1
=(1 + 0.25)(1 + 0.25)(1 + 0.25)(1 − 0.75)(1 + 0.25)(1 + 0.25)(1 + 0.25) (1 + 0.25) 8 − 1
1
= 1.192 8 − 1 = 1.0222 – 1
( )
= 2.22%
This implies that actually the investor has earned a return of 2.22% p.a. &
not 12.5% p.a.
However if all the three states of the economy are equally likely then we
will have equal probability for every return i.e. 1/3 or 0.33. In such case
the expected return will be
Expected return = 18(1/3) + 15(1/3) -5(1/3)
= 9.33%
Illustration 3.10: Calculate expected return of a security from the following
data :
Return Prob.
30% 0.40
-20% 0.40
50% 0.20
Solution : Return (Ri) Prob. (Pi) PiRi
30% or 0.30 0.40 0.12
-0.20 0.40 -0.08
0.50 0.20 0.10
SPiRi = 0.14 or 14%
n
Expected Return = ∑PRi =1
i i
= 0.14
or 14%
It must be noted that if weights change then the portfolio return will also
change. For example if there is another investor who invests 50% in equity
and 50% in bond then his portfolio return will be 12.5% { i.e. 0.5(15) +).5(10)}
Hence Portfolio return is the weighted average of the returns on individual
securities, weights being the proportion of funds invested in each security.
The statistical formula for the calculation of portfolio return is
N
Portfolio return = ∑WR
i =1
i i ……………………………………………………(3.4)
1. A zero-coupon bond is available at discount, redeemable at par and does not pay any interest.
Para 3.2 Analysis of return & Risk 90
3.3 Risk
Risk arises because returns are not certain or fixed or cannot be predicted
in advance. It arises due to the fact that actual return may not be same as
the expected return. Risk is defined in terms of the variability in expected
return. It must be noted that all investments are subject to risks. However
the level of risk differs from security to security. Risk arises because the
investment may generate return different than the expected return.
Do You Know Risk and Uncertainty are Different?
Risk and Uncertainty are not same. Risk is defined as a situation where we
can assign some probabilities to the expected outcome of an event. In case of
uncertainty it is not possible to predict at all i.e. we cannot assign probabilities
to the expected outcomes of an event. In case of uncertainty we may not even
have expected set of outcomes of an event.
Risk and Uncertainty:
Risk and Uncertainty are not same. Risk is defined as a situation where
we can assign some probabilities to the expected outcome of an event. In
case of uncertainty it is not possible to predict at all i.e. we cannot assign
probabilities to the expected outcomes of an event. In case of uncertainty
we may not even have expected set of outcomes of an event.
However in practice, terms Risk and Uncertainty are often used inter-
changeably.
All rational investors like Return but at the same time they dislike Risk.
Hence all investors are risk-averse i.e. they want higher return for every
additional unit of risk and given a chance, they try to avoid risk. However,
there are various degrees of risk aversion. Some investors are more risk
averse (i.e. conservative investors) and others are less risk averse (aggres-
sive investors).
Risk aversion implies that for every additional unit of risk investors demand
more and more returns. The higher the degree of risk aversion the higher
will be the increase in required return from the investor.
Hence risk analysis is an important consideration in investment decision
making.
In order to avoid risk, some investors invest in a large number of securities.
The basic idea here is DO NOT PUT ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET.
Investment in large number of securities may lead to risk reduction as
explained in the following discussion.
3.3.1 Causes (or Sources) and Types of Risk
Risk arises due to the variability of expected returns. Returns from a security
is affected by a host of factors both external and internal to the company
Para 3.4 Analysis of return & Risk 92
which issues that security. Thus Risk is caused by a host of External and
Internal Factors. These are also known as Sources of Risk. The external
factors are those economy wide as well as social and cultural factors such
as economic policies, taxation, political conditions cultural changes, social
changes etc., on which the company has no control. These external factors
influence the returns of all the securities in the market. The internal factors
on the other hand include factors such as management, labour conditions,
efficiency, governance etc which are well within the control of a specific
company. These internal factors influence the return of that specific security
only. It does not influence the return of all the securities across the board.
Total risk on a security can be classified into systematic risk and unsys-
tematic risk depending upon the factors causing it.
Depending upon the Causes of Risks or Sources of Risks, we can classify
Total Risk of a Security as Systematic Risk and Unsystematic Risk.
In this case
Interest income in nominal terms = Rs.100 (i.e. 10% of Rs.1000).
However,
the amount of its revenue. Therefore in times of declining sales, fixed op-
erating costs may result into net losses for the company. Business risk is
measured by the degree of operating leverage. Degree of operating leverage
measures the resultant change in operating income due to a change in its
sales revenue. When fixed operating costs are present in the cost structure
of a company then a given change in sales causes more than proportionate
change in operating income.
% change in operating income
Degree of Operating leverage (DOL) =
% change in sales
Operating risk arises when DOL > 1. The higher the degree of operating
risk the greater will be the business risk.
Other emerging sources of business risk include – labour unrest, inefficient
management and corporate governance issues.
(b) Financial Risk
Financial risk is associated with financing decision or capital structure of a
company. It arises due to the presence of fixed financial cost or debt capital
in a company. As a result a change in operating profit will have a more than
proportionate change in its earnings per share (EPS). It must be noted that
interest cost must be paid by the company irrespective of the amount of
its operating profit. Financial risk is measured by the degree of financial
leverage which is the ratio of change in EPS to change in operating profit
of a company.
% change in EPS
Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) =
% change in operating profit or EBIT
Financial risk arises whenever DFL > 1. Therefore companies using exces-
sive debt capital are subject to high financial risk.
Illustration 3.14 : Specify whether the following events are the sources of
systematic risk or unsystematic risk.
(i) An increase in oil price by OECD
(ii) Labour unrest at Maruti Udyog Ltd.
(iii) Break up of Bharati Walmart Joint Venture
(iv) Increase in repo rate by RBI.
(v) Debt ridden Kingfisher airlines declares bankruptcy.
(vi) Decline in GDP growth rate.
(vii) A bad monsoon year.
(viii) Corporate mis-governance and management fraud at Satyam Ltd.
(ix) Global financial crisis.
Para 3.5 Analysis of return & Risk 96
Unsystematic Risk
Systematic Risk
No. of Securities in Portfolio
Fig 3.1 : No. of Securities and Risks
In Fig 3.1 we can see that the systematic risk of the portfolio is same irre-
spective of the number of securities in the portfolio. However unsystematic
risk reduces as we increase the number of securities in the portfolio. It
must be noted that initially when number of securities is increased there is
substantial decline in unsystematic risk of the portfolio. Later on a further
increase in the number of securities reduces unsystematic risk but gradually.
97 Unsystematic Risk Para 3.5
investors as Risk Averse, Risk Neutral and Risk Lover. Risk Neutral and
Risk Lovers are not rational investors. Hence in stock market we have only
Risk Averse Investors.
will provide higher utility to an investor than the investment with more
risk. An investor with diminishing marginal utility is necessarily risk averse.
An indifference curve represents a set of risk and expected return com-
binations that provide an investor with the same amount of utility. The
investor is indifferent about the risk- expected return combinations on
the same indifference curve. Further the higher the indifference curve the
greaterFigwill be the utility
3.2 Indifference Map for a depicted by it. We can draw indifference curve
risk averse investor
for an investor using two parameters – Risk and Return.
Risk is shown on X axis and Return on Y axis. The indifference curve for
a risk averse investor will always be upward sloping and have increasing
slope (i.e. convex). The increasing slope implies that for every additional
unit of risk, this investor requires higher and higher additional return to
have same utility. The indifference map (or a set of indifference curves I1,
I2 and I3) for a risk averse investor is shown in Fig 3.2. It can be seen that
the higher the indifference curve the higher will be the utility i.e. I3 shows
highest utility among these three curves. But on the same indifference
curve, utility is same throughout. Utility derived from B & C are same.
E(RP) I3
I2
I1
D
C
B A
σP
It must be noted that for every additional unit of risk, a more risk averse
investor will demand a higher additional return as compared to a less risk
averse investor. Hence the indifference curve of a more risk averse inves-
tor would be steeper (having higher slope than that of a less risk averse
investor) while the indifference curve for a less risk averse investor would
be relatively flatter. The indifference curve of a more risk averse investor
and a less risk averse investor are shown in Fig 3.3. It can be seen that for
the same additional unit of risk, a more risk averse investor demands a
higher additional return than a less risk averse investor.
Para 3.6 Analysis of return & Risk 100
IM
Return
More Risk Averse IL
Less Risk Averse
Risk
Fig: 3.3 : Indifference Curves for a More Risk
Averse and Less Risk averse Investor
Fig 3.4 Indifference curve of a Risk Neutral Investor
Return
Fig 3.5 Indifference curve of a Risk lover( Risk Seeker)
I ( Neutral)
Risk
Return
Risk Seeker(Lover)
Risk
and uses only return to derive utility. Risk is immaterial for him and hence
we get a straight line as the indifference curve. This is shown in Fig 3.4.
In case of a risk lover, the indifference curve will be just the opposite of
the indifference curve of a risk averse investor. This is because a risk lover
likes risk whereas a risk averse dislikes it. Hence the indifference curve of
a risk lover or risk seeker would be downward sloping and have increasing
slope (i.e. concave). The indifference curve of a risk lover is shown in Fig 3.5.
Measurement of Risk
∑ (R )
2
−R
S.D. = i =1
i ……………………………………………………..(3.8)
n
where Ri = ith return n = number of observations
R = Mean return
(ii) In case a probability distribution of returns is given:
n
∑ p (R )
2
S.D. = i i −R ………………………………………………….(3.8A)
i =1
Para 3.7 Analysis of return & Risk 102
n
or Variance = ∑ p (R
i =1
i i −R )
2
Total risk can also be expressed in terms of total variance. The unit of
measurement of total variance of return is squared percentage. The unit
of measurement in case of standard deviation is in percentage.
Illustration 3.15 : Calculate total risk of the security for which past returns
are given below :
Year Ri(%)
1 10
2 12
3 8
4 5
5 10
6 13
7 7
8 5
9 8
10 12
Year Ri(%) (R i − R )
2
Solution :
1 10 1
2 12 9
3 8 1
4 5 16
5 10 1
6 13 16
7 7 4
8 5 16
9 8 1
10 12 9
SRi = 90 S = 74
90
R = Mean Return = = 9%
10
( )
2
S.D. = Σ Ri − R 74
= = 2.72%
n 10
103 Calculation of total risk Para 3.7
Hence the mean return on security is 9% with a total risk of 2.72% (or total
variance is 7.4 squared percentages).
Illustration 3.16: An investment analyst wants to analyse risk and return on
security A for which he has constructed the following return distribution.
Return (Ri) in % Prob (Pi)
20 0.1
15 0.2
-5 0.2
10 0.3
25 0.2
Calculate expected return and total risk.
( )
2
Solution Ri Pi RiPi Pi R i − R
20 0.1 2.0 6.4
15 0.2 3.0 1.8
-5 0.2 -1.0 57.8
10 0.3 3.0 1.2
25 0.2 5.0 33.8
ΣRiPi = 12.0 101.0
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R = 101 = 10.05%
Hence security A has average return of 12% with a total risk of 10.05%.
This security has very high risk due to very large variability in return (i.e.
-5% to 25%).
ΣR 2M −
(ΣR M )2
n
1174 − 77 × 64 / 6 352.67
= = 1.21
=
974 −
(64) 2
291.33
6
Hence beta of security P is 1.21. Since b > 1 we can say that this security
is aggressive. A 1% increase in market return will result in 1.21% increase
in this security’s return.
Similarly a 1% decrease in market return will result in a 1.21% decrease in
this security’s return.
Calculation of the Magnitude of Systematic Risk
It must be noted that b is an indicator of systematic risk of a security. It is
a number independent of the unit of measurement. Hence it does not tell
us what is the quantity of systematic risk i.e. how much of the total risk
(say 10%) is systematic risk?
107 Unsystematic Risk Para 3.9
Systematic risk can be defined as that part of total risk which is explained
by market. Hence if security return is dependent variable (or S) and market
return is independent variable (or M) then systematic variance is the ex-
plained variance i.e. that part of total variance in S which is explained by M.
Explained Variance = Coefficient of determination x Security Variance
= rMS
2
.σ S2 ………………………………………………….(1)
σs
Now we know that rMS . σm = βSM
σm
Hence rms = β sm …………………………………………………….(2)
σs
Substituting the value of rsm from (2) in (1) we get
2
σm 2
Explained Variance (Systematic Variance) = βsm . σs .σ s
2 2
= βsm .σ m
Systematic Risk = bsm………………………… ………………………(3.11A)
(in S. D.)
Systematic Risk (in the form of S.D.) is square root of systematic variance
and is expressed in % term.
For example if a security’s beta is 1.2 and market standard deviation is 10%
then the systematic risk (in terms of S.D.) will be 12%.
σ ei2 = σ S2 − β2 σ 2m ……………………………………………………(3.12A)
It must be noted that (E(Rm)-Rf) is nothing but market risk premium i.e.
risk premium on the market portfolio.
(E(Rm)-Rf)βi is the risk premium of the security. Hence risk premium of a
security is calculated by multiplying market risk premium with the beta
of that security.
Solved Problems
Problem 3.1: Mr. Trivedi has purchased an equity share at a price of Rs.
220 in the beginning of year 2015. He sold the share at a price of Rs. 240
at the end of year 2015 after receiving a dividend of Rs. 2 from the share.
What is the holding period return on equity share? (ii) How much is divi-
dend yield and capital gains yield?
D1 + (P1 − P0 )
Solution: HPR on equity share =
P0
113 Solved problems
2 + (240 − 220 )
=
220
= 0.10 or 10%
Dl
Dividend yield =
Po
= 2/220 = 0.0091 or 0.91%
Capital gain yield = (P1-Po)/Po = (240-220)/220 = 0.0909 or 9.09%
Problem 3.2: Mr. A had purchased a bond at a price of Rs. 800 with a
coupon payment of Rs. 150 and sold it for Rs. 1000. (i) What is his Holding
Period Return? And (ii) if the bond is sold for Rs 750 after receiving coupon
payment, then what is his holding period return? (B.com (H) DU 2009)
I1 + (P1 − P0 )
Solution: HPR on bond =
P0
150 + (1000 − 800 )
=
800
= 0.4375 or 43.75%
150 + (750 − 800 )
HPR if sold for Rs. 750 = = 0.125 = 12.5%
800
Problem 3.3: An investor is considering the following two Zero coupon
bonds for the purpose of investment. The face value of the bond is Rs.100.
(i) 6-month zero coupon bond available at a price of Rs. 97
(ii) One year Zero coupon bond available at a price of Rs. 93.
(iii) Four years zero coupon bond available at an issue price of Rs. 88.
Advise the investor.
Solution : A zero coupon bond does not pay any interest and are issued at
discount. The return from a zero coupon bond is based on the difference
between redemption value (which is at face value) and issue price.
Here we can calculate Holding Period return (HPR) of the bonds-
Bond HPR
6 month bond (100 – 97)/97 = 0.0309 or 3.09%
One year Bond (100 – 93)/93 = 0.0753 or 7.53%
Four year bond (100 – 88)/88 = 0.1364 or 13.64%
However since the holding period is different, they cannot be compared
in terms of HPR. Hence we calculate effective annualized returns of the
three bonds.
Analysis of return & Risk 114
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R
Risk of security T = (0.001321)1/2 = 0.0363 or 3.63%
Problem 3.5: An investor purchases an equity share at a price of Rs. 100
now. Its expected year end price with relevant probabilities and expected
year end dividends are given below:
115 Solved problems
( )
2
Total variability = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R
= [ 0. 20(3 0 -20.8) 2 + 0.40( 23- 20. 8) 2 + 0.30(17-
20.8)2+0.10(5-20.8)2]1/2
= (48.16)1/2
= 6.94%
Problem 3.6: Following information is available in respect of the rate of
return on two securities - Q and S
Condition Probability Rate of return on Q Rate of return on S
Recession 0.30 -0.20 0.05
Normal 0.40 0.25 0.10
Boom 0.30 0.40 0.12
(i) Find out the expected returns and risk of security Q and S.
(ii) Which security is less risky? Why?
(iii) Suppose an investor has Rs. 10,000 to invest. He invests Rs. 5,500 in
security Q and the remaining Rs. 4,500 in Security S . What will be
the expected return of his portfolio?
Analysis of return & Risk 116
Solution :
Condition Probability Rate of Rate of PiRQ PiRs P i ( R Q - Pi(Rs- R
(Pi) return return s)2
R Q)2
on Q on S (R
(RQ) (Rs)
Recession 0.30 -0.20 0.05 -0.06 0.015 0.03888 0.000504
Normal 0.40 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.00324 0.0000324
Boom 0.30 0.40 0.12 0.12 0.036 0.01728 0.000252
S 0.16 0.091 0.0594 0.000788
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R
State Probability RA RB
Bear 0.30 -10% -20%
Normal 0.20 18% 10%
Bull 0.50 25% 20%
(B.com (H) DU 2013)
Solution :
State Prob. RA RB Pi x RA Pi XRB P i ( R A - R Pi(RB-
R
(Pi) A)2 B)2
Bear 0.3 -10% -20% -0.03 -0.06 0.0160 0.0203
Normal 0.2 18% 10% 0.036 0.02 0.0004 0.0003
Bull 0.5 25% 20% 0.125 0.1 0.0071 0.0098
Σ = 0.131 Σ = 0.06 Σ = 0.0235 Σ = 0.0304
(iv) R = Expected Return = SRiPi
Therefore Expected return of A = 13.1%
Expected return of B = 6%
(v) Risk of a security can be measured by its S.D of returns.
Total Risk = S.D. = ( ) ΣPi R i − R
2
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R
Risk of security X = (30)1/2 = 5.48%
Risk of security Y = (5.034)1/2 = 2.24%
Since returns are different we cannot compare these two securities
unless we use a relative measure of risk. For this we calculate coef-
ficient of variation (C.V)
C.V for X = 5.48/5 = 1.096
C.V for Y = 2.24/5.6 = 0.40
Using C.V we can say that security Y is less risky than security X.
Hence security Y should be selected as it provides higher return and
has lower risk.
Problem 3.9: Mr. Gupta makes an investment at Rs. 50. The year end price
of this investment under different market conditions with equal probabil-
ities are as follows:
Condition Year end price(Rs.)
Bullish 75
Normal 60
Bearish 45
(i) Find the expected value of return for one year period and risk .
(ii) Also calculate inflation adjusted return if rate of inflation during the
year is 8%.
(B.Com (H) DU 2010)
Solution:
Condition Prob. Year end Capital Return(%) Pi xRB Pi(RA- R
(Pi) price gain(loss) A)2
Bullish 1/3 75 25 50 16.67 300
Normal 1/3 60 10 20 6.67 0
Bearish 1/3 45 -5 -10 -3.34 300
Total 20 600
119 Solved problems
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R
Risk of security = (600)1/2 = 24.5%
(iii) The rate of inflation is 8% and expected return (nominal return) is
20% as calculated above. Hence inflation adjusted return can be
calculated as follows. Please note that inflation adjusted return is
same as real rate of return.
(1 + 0.20)
Inflation adjusted return = −1
(1 + 0.08)
= 0.1111
= 11.11%
Problem 3.10: An investor has a portfolio of five securities whose expected
returns and amount invested are as follows:
Security 1 2 3 4 5
Amount (Rs.) 150000 250000 300000 100000 200000
Expected Return 12% 9% 15% 18% 14%
Find out the % expected return of the portfolio.
(B.Com (H) DU 2009)
Solution : Total amount invested = Rs. 1000000
Hence the weight of each security can be calculated as follows:
Amount invested in security i
Weight of security i =
Total amount invested
Security 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Weight (Wi) 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.10 0.20
Expected Return(Ri) 12% 9% 15% 18% 14%
Wi X Ri 1.8 2.25 4.5 1.8 2.8 13.15
Expected Return of the portfolio = 13.15%
Problem 3.11: In a portfolio of the company Rs. 200000 have been invest-
ed in asset X which has an expected return of 8.5%, Rs. 280000 in asset Y
which has an expected return of 10.2% and Rs. 320000 in asset Z which has
an expected return of 12%. What is the expected return for the portfolio?
(B.Com (H) DU 2010)
Analysis of return & Risk 120
Asset X Y Z Total
Weight (Wi) 0.25 0.35 0.40 1.00
Expected Return in % (Ri) 8.5 10.2 12
Wi X Ri 2.125 3.57 4.8 10.495
Expected Return of the portfolio = 10.495%
Problem 3.12: The returns on two securities under four possible states of
nature are given below:
State of Nature Prob. (Pi) RA (%) RB(%)
1 0.2 7 4
2 0.4 9 10
3 0.3 14 18
4 0.1 18 28
Find :
(i) Expected return on security A and security B.
(ii) Risk (in terms of S.D.) on security A and B.
(iii) Covariance between returns on security A and B.
(iv) Coefficient of correlation between the returns on security A and B.
(B.Com (H) DU 2012)
Solution : Calculation of Expected Return and Risk
State Prob. (Pi) RA RB Pi X Pi XRB Pi(RA- R Pi(RB- R
RA A)2 B)2
1 0.2 7 4 1.4 0.8 3.2 16.2
2 0.4 9 10 3.6 4 1.6 3.6
3 0.3 14 18 4.2 5.4 2.7 7.5
4 0.1 18 28 1.8 2.8 4.9 22.5
TOTAL 11 13 12.4 49.8
(i) R = Expected Return = SRiPi
Therefore Expected return of A = 11%
Expected return of B = 13%
Expected return of security B is higher.
121 Solved problems
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi R i − R
Risk of security X = (12.4)1/2 = 3.52%
Risk of security Y = (49.8)1/2 = 7.06%
(iii) Covariance between returns of A and B can be calculated using the
following formula:
Covariance (A,B) = Σ Pi(RA- R A) (RB- R B)
State Prob. (Pi) RA RB (RA- R A) (RB- R B) Pi(RA- R A) (RB- R B)
1 0.2 7 4 -4 -9 7.2
2 0.4 9 10 -2 -3 2.4
3 0.3 14 18 3 5 4.5
4 0.1 18 28 7 15 10.5
Σ =24.60
Hence Covariance between A and B’s returns is 24.60 squared per-
centage.
Cov (AB)
(iv) Coefficient of Correlation (ρ) =
S.D. (A) S.D. (B)
24.50
=
3.52 × 7.06
3.52 × 7.06
= 0.989
Thus the two securities returns are highly positively correlated.
Problem 3.13: An investor is considering the following two investment
proposals. The returns from both the proposals are same but their
probabilities differ. Compute the Expected Return and risk of the following
two proposals and advise the investor.
Return(%) Prob. X Prob.Y
-10 0.05 0.20
15 0.15 0.20
20 0.30 0.25
25 0.25 0.25
30 0.25 0.10
Analysis of return & Risk 122
Solution :
Ri(%) Prob. X Prob.Y PX(Ri) Py(Ri) Px (Ri- R )2 Py(Ri- R )2
-10 0.05 0.2 -0.5 -2 49.61 127.51
15 0.15 0.2 2.25 3 6.34 0.01
20 0.3 0.25 6 5 0.68 5.64
25 0.25 0.25 6.25 6.25 3.06 23.77
30 0.25 0.1 7.5 3 18.06 21.75
Total 21.5 15.25 77.75 178.68
( )
2
Σ Ri − R 0.00983
S.D. = = = 0.044 or 4.4%
N 5
Hence total risk of the security is 4.4%.
Problem 3.15: A security analyst wants to analyse the following two secu-
rities with respect to risk.
Security Expected Return (%) S.D. of Returns (%)
X 25 18
Y 30 20
Can it be concluded that security Y is more risky than security X.
Solution : In the question although S.D. of returns of security Y is higher
than that of security X, it cannot be concluded that security Y is more risky.
This is because return on security Y is also higher. In this case we should
not assess riskiness of a security by S.D. which is an absolute measure
of risk. Rather we should use coefficient of variation which is a relative
measure of risk.
S.D.
Coefficient of variation =
Mean Return
18
Coefficient of variation of security X = = 0.72
25
Problem 3.16: Calculate beta (b) of security P from the following information :
Security Return (Rs) Market Return (Rm)
21 10
18 15
23 30
8 6
5 4
Solution : Rs RM Rs.RM RM2
21 10 210 100
18 15 270 225
23 30 690 900
8 6 48 36
5 4 20 16
Total 75 65 1238 1277
ΣR s . ΣR M
ΣR s .R M −
β= n
ΣR 2M −
( M )2
Σ R
n
1238 − 75 × 65 / 5 283
= = 0.61
=
1277 −
(65) 2
432
5
Hence beta of security is 0.61. Since b < 1 we can say that this security is
defensive. A 1% increase in market return will result in 0.61% increase in
this security’s return.
Similarly a 1% decrease in market return will result in a 0.61% decrease in
this security’s return.
Problem 3.17 : The total risk on a security (expressed in terms of S.D.) is
20% and its beta is 1.2. Calculate systematic risk and unsystematic risk of
the security if market variance is 36% squared percentage (i.e. market S.D.
is 6%)?
Solution : Total Variance = σ 2 = (20) = 400 Sq%
2
This can be compared with 9% which is pre-tax interest rate from fixed
deposit. Here also we find that PFC bonds are better than fixed deposit.
Note : That here we have not considered maturity value while deciding
the investment between the two options because maturity value is same
in both the cases and hence becomes irrelevant. It should be considered
while calculating actual yield from the investment.
Problem 3.20: Mr. Tiwari invests Rs. 900 in a corporate bond (Face value-
Rs. 1000) selling for Rs. 900. In the coming year, the bond will pay interest
of Rs. 50. The price of the bond at year’s end will depend on the level of
interest rates prevailing at that time. The following scenario is expected:
Interest rates Probability Year end Bond Price
High 0.3 850
Unchanged 0.4 890
Low 0.3 950
T-bills provide a sure rate of return is 4%. Calculate HPR for each scenario,
the expected rate of return and the risk premium on Mr. Tiwari’s investment.
Solution : Mr. Tiwari buys a bond at a price of Rs. 900, hence Po = Rs 900
His Year end possible Holding period Returns are :
Int Rate Pi P1 Int Int + Price Return (Ri) PiRi
Change (HPR)
High 0.3 850 50 0 0/900 = 0 0
Unchanged 0.4 890 50 40 40/900 = 0.044 0.018
Low 0.3 950 50 100 100/900 = 0.111 0.033
0.0511
Hence the Expected Return is 5.11%
Risk Premium = Expected Return – Risk free rate
= 5.11- 4
= 1.1%
Summary
u Return may be defined as income (or cash inflows) generated by investment
expressed as a percentage of the cost of investment.
u Holding Period Return (HPR) is the total return earned during the holding
period of investment. It is not expressed in per annum form rather it is the
absolute return over a specified investment horizon period such as 3-year
return, 5-year return etc.
127 Test Yourself
Test Yourself
True/False
(i) Return is the reward for investment.
(ii) Risk may be ignored while making investments.
(iii) Holding period return can be used to compare two or more investment
options.
(iv) Average return can be calculated using arithmetic mean or geometric mean.
(v) Calculation of Expected return requires assignment of probabilities to the
expected outcomes.
(vi) There is no difference between risk and uncertainty
(vii) Beta is an indicator of unsystematic risk
(viii) Risk premium is zero in case of a risky asset.
(ix) Portfolio return is weighted average of individual returns of securities com-
prising that portfolio.
Analysis of return & Risk 128
(x) Indifference curve of a risk averse investor is downward sloping and concave.
(xi) Investors are risk seekers.
(xii) A Risk Neutral Investor does not consider risk while making investment
decisions.
(xiii) The indifference curve of a more risk averse investor is steeper.
(xiv) Unsystematic risk is caused by factors within the control of a specific com-
pany.
(xv) All securities have same level of systematic risk.
(xvi) Systematic risk is also termed as diversifiable risk.
(xvii) Financial risk is a component of systematic risk.
(xviii) Inefficient management is a source of systematic risk.
(xix) Beta of a security can never be negative or zero.
(xx) In an efficiently diversified portfolio unsystematic risk is negligible.
Sol. (i) T (ii) F (iii) F (iv) T (v) T (vi) F (vii) F (viii) F (ix) T (x) F (xi) F (xii) T
(xiii) T (xiv) T (xv) F (xvi) F (xvii) (F) (xviii) F (xix) F (xx) T
Theory Questions
1. What do you understand by the term ‘Return’? Explain in the context of
investment in securities. [Para 3.1]
2. What is holding period return? How it measured and what are its
limitations? [Para 3.2.4]
3. What is effective annualized return? How is it calculated? What is the need
of calculating it? Explain. [Para 3.2.4]
4. How is average return calculated? Explain various methods of
calculating it. [Para 3.2.1]
5. Why is average return based on geometric mean considered superior to
arithmetic mean based average return? Justify. [Para 3.2.1]
6. Explain the following : [Para 3.2]
(i) Risk-adjusted Return
(ii) Absolute Return
(iii) Abnormal Return
7. What is expected return? How can it be calculated if a probability distribution
of returns is given? Illustrate with the help of a hypothetical example.
[Para 3.2.2]
8. Explain the term ‘Risk’ in the context of investment in securities. What are
different types of risks? Explain. [Para 3.3]
9. Define Risk. What are the various sources of risk in an investment? Explain
and elucidate. [B.Com (H)DU 2011] [Para 3.3]
129 Test Yourself
Practical Problems
1. An investor wants to invest in a zero coupon bond with face value of Rs.1000.
Three different maturity period bonds are available as given below :
Bond Time Horizon Price
P 6 months 960
Q 1 year 900
R 20 years 320
Analysis of return & Risk 130
11. Mr. A invests Rs. 27,000 in a corporate bond (Face value-Rs. 1000) selling for
Rs. 900. In the coming year, the bond will pay interest of Rs.75. The price of
the bond at year’s end will depend on the level of interest rates prevailing at
that time. The following scenario is expected:
Interest rates Probability Year end Bond Price
High 0.3 850
Unchanged 0.5 910
Low 0.2 975
T-bills provide sure rate of return is 4%. Calculate HPR for each scenario, the
expected rate of return and the risk premium on Mr. A’s investment. What is
the expected return in Rupee terms of the investment?
[Answer:
HPR-2.78%, 9.4%, 16.7%,
Expected return 8.87%, Rupee terms - Rs. 2395 Risk Premium- 4.87%]
12. Compute the expected return and risk of the following X and Y securities?
State Probability Return on X Return on Y
Bear Market 0.3 -10% -20%
Normal Market 0.2 18% 15%
Bull Market 0.5 25% 20%
(B.Com (H), DU, 2013)
[Answer: Return on X-13.1%, return on Y-7%, risk on X-15.32%, risk on Y-17.78%]
13. Orange Cap Limited provides you with the following information with regard
to two stocks, A and B :
State Probability Return on A Return on B
a. Arithmetic mean
b. Geometric mean
Which one gives you the actual return?
[Answer-A.M.:12%, GM: (-) 20.08%]
16. You invest Rs.100 in Mutual Fund which earns 25% annually for 3 years, loses
75% in fourth year, and earns 25% annually for next three years. What is your
actual average return?
[Answer- (-) 0.7%, calculated by G.M.]
17. An investor wants to invest in a zero coupon bond with face value of Rs. 1000.
Three different maturity period bonds are available in the market:
Project work
From the website of National stock exchange (www.nseindia.com) download
the closing adjusted index values of CNX NIFTY as on 31st March for the past 15
years. Assume that CNX NIFTY is the proxy for market portfolio as it represents
the majority of actively traded stocks on NSE. Also download the closing adjusted
share price data on the same dates for the following stocks-
u Infosys Ltd.
u SBI Ltd.
u Unilever Ltd.
u Biocon Ltd.
Make five series of the data that you collected and calculate yearly returns using
simple percentage formula i.e. Rt = Pt-P(t-1)/Pt-1
Now calculate the following and comment on the results :
(i) Average return and variance of CNX NIFTY as well as the above four stocks.
(ii) Beta of every stock. Why do beta of these companies differ?
(iii) Systematic risk and unsystematic risk of the above four stocks. Why do these
risks differ across the stocks?
4 FIXED INCOME SECURITIES-
VALUATION, YIELDS AND RISKS
C H A P T E R
leaRnInG outComes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Understand bond fundamentals
Classify various types of bonds and explain them
Determine the intrinsic value of a bond, convertible debenture and
Deep discount bond
Explain the interactions between bond value, interest rate and
time to maturity
Explain various types of bond yields
Explain and analyse various risks in bonds
Explain Malkiel’s properties regarding bond pricing
Explain and calculate bond duration
Explain Credit rating and process of credit rating.
134
135 Bond fundamentals Para 4.1
period. The investors who do not want to undertake high risk should also
invest in bonds and debentures because risk in fixed income securities is
relatively lower than that in equity shares due to fixed return. However be-
fore investment, the investor must consider the valuation, yields and risks
of these fixed income securities to avoid erroneous investment decision.
Fixed income securities provide a fixed amount of revenue to the holder
of the securities and hence the issuer has to bear a fixed cost obligation.
In India, fixed income securities are the most preferred investment option
for retired people and conservative (or more risk averse) investors who
want to have a fixed source of income at low risk.
Bond
A bond is a security that is issued in connection with a borrowing arrange-
ment. The bond is IOU (I owe you) of the borrower. It implies that the issuer
of the bond, usually a company or government, has an obligation to pay
some periodic amount (say interest) as well as the borrowed amount (or
principal amount) to the holder of the bond.
A bond is a security that is issued in connection with a borrowing ar-
rangement
Features of a Bond
Every bond has certain features which describe it. Some common features
of a bond are given below :
(1) Face Value or Par Value : Every bond has some basic denomination
(say Rs.1000 or Rs.100) on the basis of which interest (or coupon) is
paid. The issue price of the bond may be same as its face value or
different from its face value. When issue price is higher than face
value of the bond, it is said to be issued ‘at premium’. When issue
price of bond is lower than its face value then it is said to be issued
Para 4.1 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 136
a company and hence in special cases they may have some repre-
sentation on the board of management of the company.
(8) Priority in Payment in times of liquidation : Since bondholders are
creditors of the company they have prior claim over the assets of
the company in times of liquidation. The claims of bondholders are
settled first and then the claims of preference shareholders and equity
shareholders are settled.
shares, it necessary that the SPN is fully paid up. Therefore SPN is
sometimes referred to as hybrid debt instrument. The advantage
of SPN to the issuer company is that the company gets cash inflow
immediately and there is no burden of interest payments during
the lock in period. Hence during the lock in period there is no cash
outflow. After that it can be redeemed in instalments.
TISCO (Tata Iron and Steel Corporation Ltd.) issued SPNs in July
1992.
(2) Redeemable and Irredeemable Bonds
As the name suggests, redeemable bonds are the bonds which are to
be redeemed by the issuing company after the expiry of a specified
period known as maturity period. The redemption can be done at
premium, par or discount. Irredeemable bonds, on the other hand,
have infinite time horizon as no maturity period is specified in this
case. Such bonds are not redeemed by the company during its life.
The bondholder continues to get interest income on irredeemable
bonds throughout the life of the company or till the time company
decides to redeem the bonds. Irredeemable bonds are also referred
to as Perpetual Bonds. In real practice irredeemable bonds are a rare
phenomenon.
(3) Secured and Unsecured Bonds
Secured bonds are the bonds for which the issuer company provides
some asset (e.g. land, building etc.) as security or mortgage with
bond trustee. If the company fails to pay interest or repay the prin-
cipal amount, then the asset is sold to recover such amount. In case
of unsecured bonds no such asset is kept as security or mortgage.
Therefore unsecured bonds are riskier than secured bonds. In case
of liquidation, secured bonds get priority payments over unsecured
bonds. In India, some of the private sector companies have issued
unsecured bonds in the decades of 1990s.
(4) Callable and Putable Bonds
The peculiar feature of these bonds is that the bond indenture has
a ‘call option’ (in case of callable bond) or a ‘put option’ (in case of
putable bond). Call option is the right of the issuer company to call
off or redeem bonds after a specified period but before maturity.
Generally the company exercises its right to redeem or ‘call option’ if
the market interest rate declines and becomes less than coupon rate.
In that case it makes sense for the issuer company to redeem early
the high coupon rate bearing bonds and issue a new series of bonds
with lower coupon rate. Since these bonds are callable at the option
Para 4.2 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 140
(1+k)5 = 110000/3600
K = (30.6)1/5 – 1
K = 18.64%
(7) Tax Free Bonds
Another popular type of bonds especially issued by infrastructure
companies in India, is tax free bonds. Interest income on tax free
bonds is exempt from income tax and hence such bonds become a
lucrative investment option for investors in higher tax bracket. Tax
free bonds are generally available for a maturity period of 10 years,
15 years and 20 years. Companies which have recently issued tax
free bonds in India include – Rural Electrification Corporation (REC),
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) etc. In September 2015, NTPC
issued Tax free bonds for a term of 10, 15 and 20 years.
(8) Junk Bonds
Junk bonds are the bonds which have high default risk. Due to high
risk these bonds have high coupon rate and trade at higher yields.
Junk bonds are the bonds of the companies having very low credit
rating and hence should be avoided by an investor. Due to high risk
and high yield these bonds are generally subscribed by speculators.
(9) Treasury Bonds and Corporate Bonds
Bonds issued by central government of a country are often referred
to as sovereign bonds or treasury bonds. Treasury bonds do not have
any call or put option. Most of the Treasury bonds are in the form of
Zero coupon bonds i.e. they do not have any explicit coupon rate. On
the other hand, bonds issued by a company are termed as corporate
bonds. They generally have a call option or put option.
(10) Municipal Bonds
Bonds issued by state and local government are termed as municipal
bonds. These bonds are not very popular in India due to high risk.
Further, not many local governments issue these bonds in India.
(11) Floating Rate Bonds
This is a new innovation in bond market. Floating rate bonds do not
have a fixed coupon rate. In this case coupon rate is linked to another
base interest rate such as Repo rate or MIBOR (Mumbai Inter Bank
Offer Rate). A change in Repo rate (or MIBOR) will cause a change in
coupon rate hence interest income from this bond will be fluctuating
rather than fixed and constant. For example if a company issues a
143 Bond Valuation Para 4.3
Bond Valuation:
Bond is a financial asset. Extending the concept of DCF valuation as ex-
plained above in case of a real or physical asset, we can calculate the “true”
145 Bond valuation Para 4.3
or real worth of a financial asset as the present value of all future expected
cash flows from it. The present value calculation here also requires an
appropriate discount rate or minimum required rate of return.
The “ true” value or “real” worth of a financial asset is termed as its“ Intrinsic
value”.
Therefore, intrinsic value of a bond is the present value of all future ex-
pected cash inflows from it. Unlike equity shares, the expected cash flows
from a bond or debenture or any other fixed income security is not difficult
to determine.
The future expected cash inflows from a bond are in the form of interest
incomes and redemption value at maturity. Hence there are two parts
of the intrinsic value of a bond. First, the present value of all interest in-
comes throughout the life of the bond and second, the present value of
the redemption value at maturity. Since the amount of interest remains
same and is received periodically, the first part of the valuation formula
takes the form of an annuity. The second part is a lump sum amount to
be received at maturity.
Intrinsic value of a bond = P.V. of Interests + P.V. of Redemption value
The interest on a bond may be paid annually, semi annually or at any
other frequent intervals. Hence the valuation of a bond is discussed under
following cases.
for N years
RV = Redemption value
PVF = Present value factor at Kd discount rate for N years.
Kd N
PVFK N i.e. Present value factor can be found in the Tables given in
d
Appendix 1.
Investment Decision
The intrinsic value or true value of a bond is then compared with its actual
market price to decide whether to invest in a bond or not. The rule is -
Buy a bond if Intrinsic value > Current Market Price
Do Not Buy or Sell a bond, if Intrinsic value < Current Market Price
Indifferent, if Intrinsic value = Current Market Price
It must be noted that intrinsic value of a bond is “What the price should
be”. The actual market price of the bond may be different from this. If
market price is less than the intrinsic value then the bond is “underpriced”
and therefore is a good “buy”. Hence in such a case investor should invest
in the bond. This is because the actual price of the bond is less than its true
worth or intrinsic value. On the other hand if market price is higher than
the intrinsic value, then the bond is “overpriced” (or overvalued) and hence
a good “sell”. Therefore in this case bondholder should not buy the bond.
If the investor already holds a bond which has actual price higher than its
intrinsic value then he should immediately sell it. Further if intrinsic value
and market price are same then the bond is said to be “fairly priced” in the
market and hence an investor has an indifferent attitude. He may decide
to buy or sell at the prevailing price. If he decides to buy he will get a fair
return.
147 Bond valuation Para 4.3
OR
I
P0 = PVFAK + RV PVF K …………………………..(4.3A)
2 2
d
, 2N 2
d
2N
years
RV = Redemption value
PVFK
= Present value factor at Kd discount rate for N years.
dN
The values of PVFAK N i.e. Present value annuity factor and PVFK N i.e.
d d
If the market price of this bond is Rs. 855, then the investor should not
buy it because intrinsic value is lower in case of semi annual and quarterly
compounding.
Hence the bond should be bought only in the case when it provides annual
interest payments.
It must be noted that in case of semi-annual compounding the value of the
bond is lower than that in case of annual compounding because the frequency
of interest payments is higher. Similarly in case of quarterly compounding
the value of the bond is lower than that in case of annual and semi annual
compounding. Thus the more frequently the interests are paid, the better it
is for the bondholder and hence the lower will be the true value of the bond.
Bond
Value
Interest Rate
(2) Interaction between Coupon rate, Required rate of return and bond
value: It must be noted that if required rate of return is same as the
coupon rate then the bond’s value will be equal to its face value. If
required rate of return (or market interest rate) is higher than the
coupon rate then the value of the bond will be lower than its face
value. Such a bond is termed as discount bond. On the other hand if
required rate of return is lower than the coupon rate then the value
of the bond will be higher than its face value. Such a bond is termed
as premium bond.
Illustration 4.2: In illustration 4.1, in case of annual compounding what will
be the value of the bond if (i) required rate of return (market interest rate
rises) to 14%. (ii) required rate of return(market interest rate) declines to 10%.
Solution :
(i) When required rate of return or market interest rate rises to 14%
then Kd = 14%. Therefore
P0 = 60 × PVFA14%3 + 1000 × PVF14%3
= 60 × 2.322 + 1000 × 0.675
= 139.32 + 675
= 814.32
Thus bond value declines from Rs. 856.12 (as calculated in Illustration
4.1) to Rs. 814.32
(ii) When required rate of return (market interest rate) declines to 10%
then Kd = 10%. Therefore
P0 = 60 × PVFA10%3 + 1000 × PVF10%3
= 60 × 2.487 + 1000 × 0.751
= Rs. 900.22
Thus bond value increases from Rs. 856.12 to Rs. 900.22, when market
interest rate declines from 12% to 10%.
Illustration 4.3: A bond of Rs. 1000 face value carrying a coupon rate of
14% is redeemable at par after 10 years. Interest is payable annually. Find
out the intrinsic value of the bond if required rate of return is (i) 12% (ii)
14% (iii) 16%.
Solution : Here I = 14% of 1000 i.e. Rs. 140, N= 10 years
(i) when required rate of return is 12%
Po = 140 × PVFA12%10 + 1000 × PVF12%10
= 140 × 5.65 + 1000 × 0.322
= Rs. 1113
Para 4.4 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 152
You can see that the intrinsic value of the bond is higher than its face
value of Rs. 1000 because required rate of return is lower than the
coupon rate.
(ii) when required rate of return is 14%
Po = 140 × PVFA14%10 + 1000 × PVF14%10
= 140 × 5.216 + 1000 × 0.27
= Rs. 1000
You can see that the intrinsic value of the bond is same its face value
of Rs. 1000 because required rate of return is equal to the coupon
rate.
(iii) when required rate of return is 16%
Po = 140 × PVFA16%10 + 1000 × PVF16%10
= 140 × 4.833 + 1000 × 0.227
= Rs. 903.62
You can see that the intrinsic value of the bond is lower than its face
value of Rs. 1000 because required rate of return is higher than the
coupon rate.
Illustration 4.4 : A bond having face value of Rs. 1000 carrying a coupon
rate of 14% is redeemable after 10 years. Interest is payable annually. Find
out the intrinsic value of the bond if required rate of return is 16% and the
bond is redeemable at (i) Rs. 950 (ii) Rs. 1050.
Solution : Here I = 14% of 1000 i.e. Rs. 140, N= 10 years and required rate
of return Kd = 16%
(i) when redemption value is Rs. 950
Po = 140 × PVFA16%10 + 950 × PVF16%10
= 140 × 4.833 + 950 × 0.227
= Rs. 892.27
(ii) when redemption value is Rs. 1050
Po = 140 × PVFA16%10 + 1050 × PVF16%10
= 140 × 4.833 + 1050 × 0.227
= Rs. 914.97
Illustration 4.5 : A bond having face value of Rs. 1000 carrying a coupon
rate of 14% is redeemable at par at maturity. Interest is payable annually.
Find out the intrinsic value of the bond if required rate of return is 16%
and the bond is redeemable after (i) 10 years, (ii) 15 years (iii) the bond has
an original term of 10 years and had been issued 3 years ago.
153 Interactions between bond value, interest rate Para 4.4
Solution : Here I = 14% of 1000 i.e. Rs. 140, N= 10 years or 15 years and
required rate of return Kd = 16%
(i) when maturity is after 10 years
Po = 140 × PVFA16%10 + 1000 × PVF16%10
= 140 × 4.833 + 1000 × 0.227
= Rs. 903.62
(ii) when maturity is after 15 years
Po = 140 × PVFA16%15 + 1000 × PVF16%15
= 140 × 5.575 + 1000 × 0.108
= Rs. 888.50
(iii) when the bond has an original term of 10 years and had been issued 3
years ago then the remaining time to maturity will be 7 years. Hence
the intrinsic value of the bond should be calculated taking only 7
years expected cash flows. Thus
Po = 140 × PVFA16%7 + 1000 × PVF16%7
= 140 × 4.039 + 1000 × 0.354
= Rs. 919.46
Illustration 4.6 : A Rs 1000, 15% bond is available at a price of Rs. 900 in the
market. The bond is redeemable at par after 10 years. Interest is payable
annually. Should an investor buy this bond if his required rate of return
is16%?
Solution: Here we are given that Face value = Rs 1000, Coupon rate = 15%,
N = 10 years, R.V. = Rs. 1000 and current market price = Rs. 900.
Thus I = Rs 150 (i.e. 15% of Rs. 1000)
Therefore the intrinsic value (or true value) of the bond is,
Po = 150 × PVFA16%10 + 1000 × PVF16%10
= 150 × 4.833 + 1000 × 0.227
= Rs. 951.95
Now, the intrinsic value of the bond is higher than its market price of
Rs. 900 therefore the investor should BUY this bond. This bond is under-
valued and hence a good buy.
(3) Bond Value (or price) and Time (Convergence of Bond price to
redemption value at maturity)
Bond values/prices change with time and at maturity the market
price of the bond is equal to its redemption value. This is known as
Para 4.4 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 154
P2
RV RV
P1
10 5 0
Time to maturity (Years)
Time to maturity(Years)
Assume that the required rate of return is (a) 14% (b) 10%?
Solution: Here we are given that Face value = Rs. 1000, Coupon rate =
12%, N = 10 years, 5 years, 2 years, 1 year and Zero years (i.e. at maturity),
R.V. = Rs. 1000.
Thus Interest = Rs. 120 (i.e. 12% of Rs. 1000). The value (or fair price) of
the bond can be computed under different cases as below-
(a) When required rate of return is 14%
(i) In case of 10 years to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA14%10 + 1000 × PVF14%10
= 120 × 5.216 + 1000 × 0.270
= Rs. 903.12
(ii) In case of 5 years to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA14% 5 + 1000 × PVF14%5
= 120 × 3.433 + 1000 × 0.519
= Rs. 930.96
(iii) In case of 2 years to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA14% 2 + 1000 × PVF14% 2
= 120 × 1.647 + 1000 × 0.769
= Rs. 966.64
(iv) In case of 1 year to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA14% 1 + 1000 × PVF14%1
= 120 × 0.877 + 1000 × 0.877
= Rs. 982.24
(v) In case of 0 year to maturity (i.e. at maturity) : In this case there
will be no interest to be received. The bond holder will get only
the redemption value and that too at present. So there will be
no need to calculate present value of the redemption price.
Po = 0 × PVFA14% 0 + 1000 × PVF14%0
= 1000
Thus you can see that as the time lapses, this bond’s price
increases and converges to its redemption value at maturity.
(b) When required rate of return is 10%
(i) In case of 10 years to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA10%10 + 1000 × PVF10%10
= 120 × 6.145 + 1000 × 0.386
Para 4.4 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 156
= Rs. 1123.40
(ii) In case of 5 years to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA10% 5 + 1000 × PVF10%5
= 120 × 3.791 + 1000 × 0.621
= Rs. 1075.92
(iii) In case of 2 years to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA10% 2 + 1000 × PVF10% 2
= 120 × 1.736 + 1000 × 0.826
= Rs. 1034.32
(iv) In case of 1 year to maturity:
Po = 120 × PVFA10% 1 + 1000 × PVF10%1
= 120 × 0.909 + 1000 × 0.909
= Rs. 1018.08
(v) In case of 0 year to maturity (i.e. at maturity) : In this case there
will be no interest to be received. The bond holder will get only
the redemption value and that too at present. So there will be
no need to calculate present value of the redemption price.
Po = 0 × PVFA10% 0 + 1000 × PVF10%0
= 1000
Thus you can see that as the time lapses, this bond’s price declines and
converges to its redemption value at maturity.
Illustration 4.8 : A Rs. 1000, 12% bond is redeemable at par. Calculate its
value if the required rate of return is 10%, 11%, 12% 13% and 14% in each
of the following cases (i) the bond has 5 years to maturity (ii) the bond has
20 years to maturity (iii) the bond is perpetual.
Solution : The values of the bond under different required rates of return
and time to maturity can be calculated using the valuation formula given
in equations 4.2 and 4.3D.
Required rate 5 years to 20 years to Perpetual
of return maturity maturity bond
10% 1076 1171 1200
11% 1036 1080 1091
12% 1000 1000 1000
13% 965 930 923
14% 931 868 857
Fig 4.3 : Relationship between Bond Value, Required Rate of Return and Time to Maturity
It can be seen that when required rate is equal to coupon rate then irre-
spective of maturity period, the value of the bond is equal to its face value.
When required rate of return is lower than the coupon rate then the longer
maturity bond will have higher variation in its value.
This can be shown graphically as below in Fig 4.3:
Bond Price
5 year bond
20 year bond
Perpetual bond
Required Rate of Return
Rs. 12000 now? What should be the issue price of this bond if the company
wants to give a return of 15% to the bondholders?
Solution : (i) Here RV = Rs. 100000, k = 9% and n = 25 years
100000
Therefore Value of DDB =
(1 + 0.09)25
Value of DDB = 100000 (PVF9% 25)
= 100000(.116)
= 11600
Hence the intrinsic value of this DDB is Rs. 11600. If this bond is available
at a price of Rs. 12000 then the investor should not buy it.
(ii) In this case, RV = 100000, k = 15% and n = 25 years. We need to cal-
culate the issue price or the price at which it should be issued now so as
to provide a return of 15% p.a. to the bond holder. This is nothing but the
intrinsic value of the bond at 15% required rate of return. Hence
100000
Value of DDB (or issue price at k= 15%) =
(1 + 0.15)25
Value of DDB = 100000 (PVF15% 25)
= 100000(0 .030)
= 3000
Thus if the issue price of this bond is Rs. 3000, it will provide a required
return of 15% to the bond holder.
Annual Interest
Current yield =
Current Market Price
Since annual interest is in the form of annuity we can use PVFA and PVF
tables to calculate equation (4.8)
P = Int(PVFAYTM, N) + RV (PVFYTM N)………………………(4.8A)
The table values for equation (4.8A) are given in Appendix 1.
In case interest payments are made semi annually then equations (4.8 and
4.8A) may be suitably adjusted. In that case interest will be halved, YTM
will be half and time periods will be doubled.
We can calculate YTM using either the trial and error approach or approx-
imation formula.
Approximation Formula :
The calculation of YTM using trial and error method is complex and time
consuming. As an approximation, the following formula may be used to
calculate YTM on a bond.
I + (RV - P ) / N
YTM =
……………………………………………(4.8B)
RV + P
2
where YTM = Approximate YTM
I = Annual interest amount
RV = Redemption value
N = Number of years till maturity
P = Current market price
It can be seen that the approximation formula given in equation (4.8B)
assumes equal weights for redemption value and market price in its
denominator as we have (RV+P)/2 i.e. 0.50 RV + 0.50 P.
Some of the analysts and authors provide different weights to RV and P
and hence the formula may be different. Another popular formula for the
calculation of approximate YTM gives 0.40 weight to redemption value
and 0.60 weight to the current price. The argument is that redemption
value will be received in distant future and hence should be given less
weightage.
I + (RV − P ) / N
YTM = ………………………………………………(4.8C)
0.40RV + 0.60P
The approximation formulae given in equation (4.8B and 4.8C) provide
a rough idea about the actual YTM.
Trial and Error approach for calculation of YTM
Calculation of YTM requires the following steps in trial and error approach.
163 Bond yields Para 4.7
is 6 years. The bond is redeemable at par. Find YTM of the bond. Should
an investor buy this bond if his required rate of return is 12%?
Solution : We are given that
P = Rs. 900
I = 9% of Rs.1000 = Rs. 90
N = 6 years
RV = Rs.1000
(i) Calculation of Accurate YTM requires the following steps (using trial
and error method) :
Let us assume that YTM1 = 11%
Therefore the present value of all interest incomes and redemption
value will be calculated as given below :
V1 = 90 × PVIFA11%6 + 1000 × PVIF12%6
= 90 × 4.231 + 1000 × 0.535
= 915.79
This value is higher than the current price of Rs.900, therefore we
need to take a higher YTM say 12% as YTM2.
Therefore the present value of all interest incomes and redemption
value will be calculated as given below :
V = 90 × PVIFA12%6 + 1000 × PVIF12%6
1
(iii) If the required rate of return is 12% then the investor should not buy
this bond as it has a lower YTM (11.4%).
Illustration 4.12 An investor wants to buy a bond currently selling at
Rs. 850. Its face value is Rs.1000 and coupon rate is 7.5% p.a. The bond will
be redeemed at par after 6 years. Advise whether the investor should buy
this bond if his required rate of return is 13%?
Solution : This question can be solved in either of the following two ways :
(1) We can calculate YTM of the bond and compare it with the required
rate of return.
75 + (1000 − 850 ) / 6
Approximate YTM = 1000 + 850
2
= 11%
Since YTM < 13% i.e. required rate of return the investor should not
buy this bond.
(2) Alternatively, we can calculate intrinsic value (or fair price) of the
bond and compare it with the market price. It must be noted that
here appropriate discount rate will be 13% i.e. Kd = 13%
We know that the intrinsic value of a bond is
P0 = I (PVFA13%6 ) + RV (PVF13%6 )
= 75 (3.998) + 1000 (0.480)
= Rs. 779.85
Since intrinsic value of bond is less than Rs. 850 i.e. the market price
of the bond, the bond is overvalued and hence investor should not
invest in this bond.
Limitation of Yield to Maturity (YTM): Reinvestment rate assumption
Although YTM is a popular concept to analyse a bond’s return, it suffers
from a serious limitation. It assumes that all intermediate cash inflows (i.e.
interest incomes) are reinvested at YTM only, which is quite an unrealis-
tic assumption. To overcome this limitation we calculate “Realised YTM”
wherein all intermediate cash inflows are assumed to be reinvested at some
specified rate of interest.
(3) Realised Yield to Maturity
Realised YTM does away with the limitation of YTM regarding re-
investment rate assumption. It assumes that all intermediate cash
flows are reinvested at certain predetermined rate and not at YTM
Para 4.7 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 166
FV = 80 (CVFA8%, 6) + 1000
= 80(7.33) + 1000
= 1586.8
Now P = FV (PVFYTM* N )
(
900 = 1586.8 PVFYTM* 6years )
900
PVFYTM*6 =
1586.8
PVFYTM*6 = 0.567
Now in present value factor table (PVF) we look at the cell value equal to
0.567 against 6 years. The corresponding interest rate will be realised YTM*.
In present value factor table we find that
PVF10%6years = 0.564
Therefore realised YTM is approximately 10%.
Illustration 4.14 The market price of a Rs.1000 par value bond carrying
coupon rate of 15% and maturing after 5 years is Rs.900. The reinvestment
rate is 16%, calculate realised YTM.
Solution: FV of Cash inflows = 150 (CVFA16%5) + 1000
= 150 × 6.877 + 1000
= Rs. 2032
Now 900 = 2032 (PVFYTM* 5)
PVFYTM*5 = 0.44
YTM* = 18%
We can use PVF table given in the Appendix to find out YTM*. Look for
the cell value of 0.44 in year 5 row. The corresponding interest rate would
be YTM*. We see that the value against 5 years and 18% is 0.437 which is
approx 0.44 . Hence Realised YTM will be 18%.
YTM in case of Zero Coupon Bonds (ZCBs) or Deep Discount Bonds (DDBs)
ZCBs and DDBs do not carry any coupon rate. They are issued at discount
and redeemed at par after a specified period. Therefore the yield of a ZCB
can be calculated as :
RV
P= = RV(PVF YTM n ) ……………………………….(4.8D)
(1 + YTM)n
Where P = price of the ZCB bond
Para 4.7 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 168
Important Note
u It must be noted that if holding period is for many years (say 2 years),
then in case of bonds we will receive interest incomes in the end of
first year as well as in the end of 2nd year. Now the total interest in-
come cannot be simply the sum total of these two interests because
they are received in different time periods. In such a case we need to
convert the interests into their future value (at the end of the holding
Para 4.7 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 170
When interest rate rises, bond price falls (as shown above) and hence
price risk results in a loss to the bondholder. However at the same
time, the bondholder will get higher income on the reinvested cou-
pons because the interest amounts received in a year will be now
reinvested at a higher rate due to higher interest rate prevailing in
the market. Hence reinvestment risk results in some gain to the
bondholder. This gain may reduce the loss to the bondholder due to
price risk.
On the other hand, when interest rate declines, bond price increases (as
shown above) and hence price risk results in a gain to the bondholder.
However at the same time, the bondholder will get lower income on
the reinvested coupons because the interest amounts received in a
year will be now reinvested at a lower rate due to lower interest rate
prevailing in the market. Hence reinvestment risk results in some loss
to the bondholder. This loss may reduce the gain to the bondholder
due to price risk.
Thus price risk and reinvestment rate risk always work in the opposite
directions.
Important facts about interest rate risk
u The longer the maturity (N) the greater is this risk.
u The greater the coupon rate (It) the smaller in this risk.
Duration is a precise measure of interest rate sensitivity. The concept
of bond duration is explained in detail later in this chapter.
(2) Inflation Risk or Purchasing Power Risk
Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. Inflation risk arises
due to changes in inflation rate.
The coupon rate on bonds is fixed and does not change with the
changes in market interest rate. A 10% bond having par value of
Rs. 1000 will provide Rs. 100 as interest incomes (or coupons) to the
bondholder, irrespective of the market interest rate. Suppose mar-
ket interest rate increases to 14% even then this bond will provide
an interest income of Rs. 100 every year till maturity. And if market
interest rate falls to 8% even then this bond will provide interest
income of Rs. 100 every year till maturity. Interest rates and hence
coupon rates are expressed in nominal terms. Hence the income of
Rs. 100 is nominal income and will remain same throughout the life
of the bond.
In times of inflation, i.e. sustained increase in general price level, the
purchasing power of money declines. Hence the real income from
173 Malkiel’s Properties regarding Bond Pricing Para 4.9
the bond will not be same as its nominal income. The real income
from a bond carrying fixed interest rate declines. Hence bonds or
fixed income securities are subject to inflation risk. The real interest
rate is calculated as below:
(1 + nominal Rate)
Real rate = −1
(1 + inflation rate)
A good approximation of real rate is nominal rate minus inflation
rate. If nominal interest rate is 11% and expected inflation rate is 5%
then real rate will be approximately 6%.
Impact of inflation rate is similar to that of a change in interest rate.
u The longer the maturity period the greater is the inflation risk.
(3) Default Risk
Default risk refers to the risk accruing from the fact that the borrower
may not pay interest and/or principal on time. It is also known as
‘credit risk’. Credit rating agencies assign ratings to debt instruments
of financial institutions and companies. Other things being equal, in
general,
u Bonds with higher default risk (low grade bonds) trade at a higher
YTM.
Junk Bonds are the bonds which have very high default risk. A con-
servative investor must not invest in junk bonds.
(4) Call Risk
A bond may have a call option, giving its issuer a right to callback/
redeem the bond prior to maturity. It is exercised when interest
rate has fallen. In such a situation, the investor or bondholder may
not find a comparable investment avenue. Hence in case of callable
bonds, call risk becomes an additional source of risk.
(5) Liquidity Risk
Except some of the popular Govt. securities which are traded actively,
most debt instruments do not have very liquid market in India. It is
primarily an Over The Counter (OTC) market. Thus lower liquidity
is another risk attached with bonds because of which bondholder
may not be able to sell his bonds when in need for money.
D = ∑ w i t i …………………………………………………….(4.11)
i =1
175 Bond duration Para 4.10
Importance of Duration
u It is a simple summary statistic of the effective average maturity of
bond.
u It is a measure of interest rate sensitivity of a portfolio.
u It is an essential tool in bond immunization i.e. immunizing portfolios
from interest rate risk.
Para 4.10 Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 176
Modified Duration
Duration is a precise measure of the effective maturity of a bond. It is
expressed in years (or in periods). However an investor may be interested
in knowing the resultant change in the bond price due to a given change
in yield. For this we calculate modified duration using equation (4.12).
D
D* = modified duration = – ................................. 4.12
1+ y
Where D* = Modified duration, D = Duration, y = yield.
It must be noted that since there is an inverse relationship between bond
price and yield we have added negative sign in modified duration.
If modified duration is -2.3 then it means that 1% change in yield will on an
average change the bond price by 2.3% in the opposite direction.
Bond Duration Theorems
1. The ‘Duration’ of a zero-coupon bond is equal to its maturity.
2. For a given maturity, a bond’s duration is higher when its coupon rate
is lower.
3. For a given coupon rate, a bond’s duration generally increases with
time to maturity. Therefore there is a positive relationship between
time to maturity and bond duration.
4. Other things being equal, the duration of a bond varies inversely with
its YTM.
Illustration 4.20 Consider a Zero coupon bond having
Face Value = Rs.100, Issue Price = Rs.95, Redemption Value = Rs.100,
Years to Maturity = 5 years. Calculate its Duration.
Solution : First we calculate YTM of the bond.
YTM
100
95 =
(1 + YTM )5
or
0+
(100 − 95)
5 = 0.01 = 1%
YTM =
100 + 95
2
Year CF P.V. @ 1% Wi Wi × t
1 0 -- -- --
2 0 -- -- --
177 CREDIT RATING Para 4.11
Year CF P.V. @ 1% Wi Wi × t
3 0 -- -- --
4 0 -- -- --
5 100 95 1.0 5
5 years
Illustration 4.21 Consider the following 2 Bonds:
A B
Years to maturity 5 years 5 years
Coupon rate 10% 15%
Face Value / R.C. 100 100
Current Price 86 85
YTM 14% 20%
Calculate Duration of bond A and bond B.
Solution : Bond A
Year (ti) Cash Flows P.V. @ 14% ∴of the bonds value (Wi) Witi
1 10 8.7 .10 .10
2 10 7.7 .09 .18
3 10 6.7 .08 .24
4 10 5.9 .07 .28
5 110 57.0 .66 3.3
86.0 1.00 D = 4.1 years
Bond B
Yr (ti) CF P.V. @ 20% Wi Witi
1 15 X .833 = 12.5 .15 .15
2 15 X .694 = 10.4 .12 .24
3 15 X .579 = 8.7 .11 .33
4 15 X . 482 = 7.2 .08 .32
5 115 X . 402 = 46.2 .54 2.7
85 D = 3.75 years
Role of CRAs
Haan and Antenbrink (2011) opine that CRAs essentially perform two func-
tions: First, they perform the “informational role” by offering an independent
evaluation of the ability of a credit instrument to fulfil its debt obligations,
which reduces information costs, increases the pool of potential borrow-
ers, and promotes market liquidity. Second, they perform the “monitoring
179 Credit rating Para 4.11
c. Organisation structure
d. Corporate governance
e. Control systems
f. Personnel policies
Solved Problems
Problem 4.1 A Rs. 1000 bond carrying coupon rate of 12% matures in 20
years. The required rate of return is 14%. Calculate the value of the bond.
Solution : We have face value = Rs. 1000, Coupon rate = 12%, hence interest
= Rs. 120 p.a. N = 20 years and Kd = 14% (i.e. the required rate of return)
Assuming interest is payable annually.
The value of the bond is
Po = 120 (PVFA14% 20) + 1000 (PVF14% 20)
= 120(6.623) + 1000(0.073)
= 867.76
Hence the value of the bond is Rs. 867.76.
Problem 4.2 A Rs. 1000 bond carrying coupon rate of 12% matures in 20
years and currently sells at 85% . Is this bond a desirable investment for an
investor having required rate of return is 15% ?
Solution : We have face value = Rs. 1000, Coupon rate = 12%, hence interest
= Rs. 120 p.a. N = 20 years and Kd = 15% (i.e. the required rate of return).
Current price = Rs. 850 (i.e. 85% of 1000)
Assuming interest is payable annually.
The intrinsic value of the bond is
Po = 120 (PVFA 15% 20) + 1000 (PVF 15% 20)
= 120(6.259) + 1000(0.061)
= 812.08
185 Solved problems
Hence the intrinsic value of the bond is Rs. 812.08. This is lower than the
current price of Rs. 850. Hence this bond is not a desirable investment for
an investor having 15% as required rate of return.
Problem 4.3 A Rs. 1000 bond carrying coupon rate of 12% matures in
20 years and currently sells at a premium of 5% . Is this bond a desirable
investment for an investor having required rate of return is 11% ?
Solution : We have face value = Rs. 1000, Coupon rate = 12%, hence interest
= Rs. 120 p.a. N = 20 years and Kd = 11% (i.e. the required rate of return).
Current price = Rs. 1050 (i.e. 105% of 1000)
The intrinsic value of the bond is
Po = 120 (PVFA11% 20) + 1000 (PVF11% 20)
= 120(7.963) + 1000(0.124)
= 1079.56
Hence the intrinsic value of the bond is Rs. 1079.56. This is higher than the
current price of Rs. 1050. Hence this bond is a desirable investment for an
investor having 11% as required rate of return.
Problem 4.4 Mr. Tiwari purchased a bond for Rs. 900 with a coupon payment
of Rs. 150 p.a. He sold the bond at a price of Rs. 1050 after one year. What
is the holding period return? Calculate HPR if the bond is sold for Rs. 800.
Solution: When selling price is Rs. 1050.
150 + (1050 − 900)
Holding period return = × 100
900
= 33.33%
When selling price is Rs 800
150 + (800 − 900)
Holding period return = × 100
900
= 5.56%
Problem 4.5 Mr. Sachin is being offered a scheme in which he has to
deposit Rs. 18250 now which will give him year-end return of Rs. 5000 each
year for the next 5 years. Should he accept the offer if his required rate of
return is (i) 10%, (ii) 12%.
(B.Com (H) DU 2010)
Solution : This problem can be solved using discounting technique.
(i) When required rate of return is 10%
P.V of all future cash inflows = 5000 PVFA10%, 5
= 5000(3.791)
= 18955
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 186
Solution: We have face value = Rs. 1000, Coupon rate = 12%, hence interest
= Rs. 120 p.a. N = 3 years and Kd = 14%
(i) When interest is payable annually
Po = 120 (PVFA 14% 3) + 1000 (PVF 14% 3)
= 120(2.322) + 1000(0.675)
= 953.64
(ii) When interest is payable semi annually
Po = 60 (PVFA 7% 6) + 1000 (PVF 7% 6)
= 60(4.767) + 1000(0.666)
= 952.02
Problem 4.9 : An investor is considering the purchase of the following bond:
Face value Rs 100
Coupon rate : 11%
Maturity : 3 years
(i) If he wants a yield of 13%, what is the maximum price he should be
ready to pay for?
(ii) If the bond is selling for Rs. 97.60, what would be his yield?
(B.Com (H) DU 2009)
Solution : We have face value = Rs. 100, Coupon rate = 11%, hence interest
= Rs. 11 p.a. N = 3 years and Kd = 13% (i.e. the required yield)
Assuming interest is payable annually.
(i) The maximum price the investor would be willing to pay for would
be:
Po = 11 (PVFA13% 3) + 100 (PVF13% 3)
= 120(2.361) + 100(0.693)
= 95.27
(ii) If market price is Rs. 97.60 we can calculate yield using YTM formula
as given below:
P = I (PVFAYTM N) + RV (PVFYTM N)
To calculate accurate YTM we may first use approximate YTM for-
mula
11 + (100 − 97.60) / 3
Approx. YTM =
(100 + 97.60) / 2
= 11.94%
189 Solved problems
This value is almost equal to the current price of Rs. 8790. Hence YTM of
the bond is 12%. Since YTM is greater than the investor’s yield of 10%, the
investor should buy this bond.
The intrinsic value of the bond can be calculated taking investor’s yield as
the required rate of return.
Po = 800 (PVFA 10% 4) + 10000 (PVF 10% 4)
= 800(3.170) + 10000(0.683)
= 9366
Since the intrinsic value of the bond is more than its market price, the inves-
tor should buy this bond. The bond is undervalued and hence a good buy.
Problem 4.12 : Leela Ltd. issues a 12%, 3 year bond with face value and
maturity value of Rs. 1000. What is the value of the bond if the required
rate of return is (i) 11% (ii) 12% or (iii) 13%. Why the values are different?
What is the relationship between bond’s value and required rate of return
or interest rate?
Solution : We have face value = Rs. 1000, Coupon rate = 12%, hence interest
= Rs. 120 p.a. N = 3 years and Kd = 11%, 12% or 13%
(i) When required rate is 11%
Po = 120 (PVFA 11% 3) + 1000 (PVF 11% 3)
= 120(2.444) + 1000(0.731)
= 1024.28
(ii) When required rate is 12%
Po = 120 (PVFA 12% 3) + 1000 (PVF 12% 3)
= 120(2.402) + 1000(0.712)
= 1000
(iii) When required rate is 13%
Po = 120 (PVFA 13% 3) + 1000 (PVF 13% 3)
= 120(2.361) + 1000(0.693)
= 976.32
The values are different because of changes in the required rate of return.
There is an inverse relationship between bond’s value and required rate
of return. If required rate of return increases the bond’s value will decline
and vice versa. Further if required rate is equal to coupon rate then the
intrinsic value of the bond will be equal to its face value (assuming that
the bond is redeemable at par).
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 192
Problem 4.13 : Alpha Ltd. comes out with a scheme which specifies that
“Deposit Rs. 15000 now and receive Rs. 1000 p.a. at the end of every year
for next 5 years along with Rs. 15000 at the end of 5th year.” Should the
scheme be accepted by an investor if the required rate of return is 12%?
Solution : The present value of all future cash inflows can be calculated as
P.V of Future cash flows = 1000 (PVFA 12% 5) + 15000 (PVF 12% 5)
= 1000(3.605) + 15000(0.567)
= 12,110
Since this is less than the current cash outflow of Rs. 15000, the investor
should not accept this scheme.
Problem 4.14 : Rayon Ltd.’s 9%, bond with face value of Rs. 1000 is currently
available at a price of Rs. 850 and has 10 years to maturity. The redemption
value will be 90% of the face value. Calculate YTM of the bond.
Solution: Redemption value = 90% of 1000= Rs. 900
To calculate accurate YTM we may first use approximate YTM formula
90 + (900 − 850) /10
Approx. YTM =
(900 + 850) / 2
= 10.85 %
Now let us take discount rate as 11%.
The value of the bond at 11% is given below
Value at 11% = 90 (PVFA 11% 10) + 900 (PVF 11% 10)
= 90(5.889) + 900(0.352)
= 846.81
This value is lower than the current price of Rs. 850. Hence we now take
a lower discount rate say 10%.
Value at 10% = 90 (PVFA 10% 10) + 900 (PVF 10% 10)
= 90(6.145) + 900(0.386)
= 891.45
Since this value is higher than the current price of Rs. 850, we now use
interpolation to calculate accurate YTM:
891.45 − 850
Accurate YTM = 10% + × (11% − 10%)
891.45 − 846.81
= 10.92%
Problem 4.15 : ABC Ltd. is proposing to issue 8% bonds of face value of
Rs. 1000 redeemable in 5 annual instalments of Rs. 200 each every year
193 Solved problems
over 5 years period. If required rate of return is 7%, at what price the bonds
be offered to investors?
(B.Com (H) 2012)
Solution : In this case the redemption of the bond happens every year and
hence interest will be calculated on reducing balance of the bond. In the
first year the investor will get Rs. 280 (i.e. 8% of 1000 and Rs. 200), in 2nd
year Rs. 264 (i.e. 8% of 800 and Rs. 200), in 3rd year Rs 248 (i.e. 8% of 600
and Rs. 200), in 4th year Rs. 232 (i.e. 8% of 400 and Rs. 200) and in 5th year
Rs. 216 (i.e. 8% of 200 and Rs. 200).
Therefore the bond price should be = 280 (PVF7% 1) + 264 (PVF 7% 2) +
248(PVF 7% 3) + 232(PVF 7% 4) + 216(PVF 7% 5)
= 280(0.935) + 264 (0.873) + 248(0.816) + 232(0. 763) + 216 (0.713)
= 1025.66
The company should offer the bond at a price of Rs. 1025.66.
Problem 4.16 : An investor purchased a 12% bond at its par value of Rs. 1000
when time to maturity was 5 years. He sold the bond for Rs. 1300 after two
years. Out of the proceeds he immediately purchased a bond carrying cou-
pon rate of 10% which has 3 years to maturity and is redeemable at a price
of Rs. 1000 i.e. its face value. Find out YTM of the investor over the 5 years.
Solution : The investor has invested Rs. 1000 today and received Rs. 120 at
the end of 1st year, Rs. 120 at the end of 2nd year, Rs. 100 each at the end of
3rd year and 4th year and Rs. 1100 at the end of 5th year. The sales proceeds
of Rs. 1300 at the end of 2nd year is reinvested in a new bond and hence
there is no cash flow as such. We assume that 10% bond having face value
of Rs. 1000 is available at a price of Rs. 1300.
Let us assume that YTM over 5 years is 13%.
At 13% the value is = 120 (PVFA13% 2) + 100(PVF 13% 3) +100(PVF 13%
4) + 1100(PVF 13% 5)
= 120(1.668) + 100(.693) + 100(.613) + 1100(.543)
= 928.06
This value is lower than the current price of Rs. 1000. Hence we now take
a lower discount rate say 11%.
Value at 11% = 120 (PVFA11% 2) + 100(PVF 11% 3) +100(PVF 11% 4) +
1100(PVF 11% 5)
= 120(1.713) + 100(.731) + 100(.659) + 1100(.593)
= 996.86
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 194
This value is slightly lower than Rs. 1000. Hence YTM will be slightly higher
than 11%.
Problem 4.17 : Ruhi Ltd. had issued Rs. 1000 face value perpetual 15%
debentures 15 years ago at a price of Rs. 1000 each. Interest rates have
changed now and the debentures are now selling at a yield of 20%.
(i) Calculate the current expected market price of the debenture.
(ii) Should an investor buy the debenture at a price of Rs. 780?
(iii) What is the yield?
Solution : (i) Current expected market price of a perpetual
debenture = I/yield
= 150/0.20
= 750
If the debenture is available at Rs. 780 it should not be bought.
Yield at the price of Rs. 780 will be
780 = 150/yield
Yield = 19.23%
Problem 4.18 : Mr. Rawat bought a 12% bond with 10 years maturity,
having face value of Rs. 1000 at its issue price of Rs. 1000 six years ago.
The bond is redeemable at par. Its market price now is Rs. 1100. Should Mr.
Rawat sell this bond? Why? Assume that the required rate of return is 13%.
Solution : The bond has 4 years to maturity now (bought 6 years ago a 10
years bond). To answer the question we need to calculate intrinsic value
of the bond at the require rate of return of 13%.
Intrinsic value of bond now = 120 (PVFA 13% 4) + 1000(PVF 13% 4)
= 120 (2.974) + 1000(0.613)
= 969.88
The market price is Rs. 1100, which is greater than its intrinsic value. Hence
Mr. Rawat should sell this bond. It is overpriced.
Problem 4.19 : Mr. Awasthi bought a 18% bond with 20 years maturity,
having face value of Rs. 10000 at its issue price of Rs. 10050 one year ago.
The bond is redeemable at a premium of 10%. Its market price now is Rs.
10150. Should Mr. Awasthi sell this bond? Why? Assume that the required
rate of return is 15%. If Mr. Awasthi sells this bond at a price of Rs. 10150
what would be his Holding period return?
Solution : Now the bond has 19 years to maturity. Redemption value will
be Rs. 11000.
195 Solved problems
Intrinsic value of the bond = 1800(PVFA 15% 19) + 11000 (PVF 15% 19)
= 1800(6.198) + 11000 (.07)
= 11926.4
Since the intrinsic value is greater than the current market price of
Rs. 10150, Mr. Awasthi should not sell this bond now.
However if he sells it now at a price of Rs. 10150, then the holding period
return will be
1800 + (10150 − 10050)
HPR = × 100
10050
= 18.90%
Problem 4.20 : An investor is considering the purchase of the following bond:
Face value Rs. 5000
Coupon rate : 16%
Maturity : 5 years
(i) If he wants a yield of 17%, what is the maximum price he should be
ready to pay for?
(ii) If the bond is selling for Rs. 4541, what would be his yield if he buys
the bond and hold it till maturity?
Solution: We have face value = Rs. 5000, Coupon rate = 16%, hence interest
= Rs. 800 p.a. N = 5 years and Kd = 17% (i.e. the required yield)
Assuming interest is payable annually.
(i) The maximum price the investor would be willing to pay for would
be:
Po = 800 (PVFA17% 5) + 5000 (PVF17% 5)
= 800(3.199) + 5000(0.456)
= 4839.2
The maximum price would be Rs. 4839.20
(ii) If market price is Rs. 4500, we can calculate yield using YTM formula
as given below:
P = I (PVFA YTM N) + RV (PVF YTM N)
To calculate accurate YTM we may first use approximate YTM for-
mula
800 + (5000 − 4541) / 5
Approx. YTM =
(5000 + 4541) / 2
= 18.69%
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 196
Summary
u Fixed income securities provide a fixed income at regular intervals till maturity
and a redemption value at maturity.
u The most common fixed income securities are bonds and debentures. Deben-
tures are unsecured while bonds are secured by specific assets of the issuer
company. However in India both the terms are used interchangeably.
u Bonds have certain common features such as par value, coupon rate, maturity
period, redemption value etc.
u Bond indenture is the bond contract specifying various terms and conditions
including collateral.
u Bonds can be classified as - secured and unsecured, redeemable and irre-
deemable, convertible and non-convertible, callable and puttable, tax free
bonds, zero coupon bonds, deep discount bonds etc.
u Intrinsic value of a bond is the present value of all future expected cash flows
from it in the form of stream of interests and redemption value.
u A bond should be bought if its intrinsic value is higher than its market price.
u There is an inverse relationship between bond value and interest rate (or
required rate of return).
u Depending upon the interest rate a bond may be priced at discount or at
premium in the market.
u Bond price converges to redemption value at maturity.
u There is an inverse relationship between bond price and yield.
u Current yield is annual interest as a percentage of current market price.
199 Test Yourself
u Yield to maturity is the discount rate that equates the present value of cash
outflow (or purchase price of the bond) with the present value of cash inflows
(i.e. interests and redemption value).
u Yield to call is the yield earned on a bond till the time it is called by the issuer
company.
u Interest rate risk is the main source of risk in bonds and other fixed income
securities.
u Other risks in bonds and other fixed income securities are- inflation risk, call
risk, default risk etc.
u Bond duration is the effective maturity of a bond. Duration is the weighted
average time weights being the proportion of present value of cash flows in
a particular period to total present value of the bond.
u Modified duration represents the % change in bond price due to a unit change
in its yield.
u Duration of a zero coupon bond is equal to its maturity period, while duration
of a normal bond is less than its maturity period.
u A credit rating is technically an opinion on the relative degree of risk associ-
ated with timely payment of interest and principal on a debt instrument.
Test Yourself
True False
i. A bond is an IOU of the borrower.
ii. There is no difference between bond and debenture
iii. If face value of a bond is Rs. 1000, coupon rate is 12%, and its market price
is Rs. 900 then the interest will be Rs. 108 for the investor who buys it at
Rs. 900.
iv. Bond value is sensitive to both the interest rates and required rate of return
of the investor.
v. Bond indenture is an agreement between the issuer company and the inves-
tors.
vi. YTM and HPR of a bond are same.
vii. The duration of a zero-coupon bond is equal to its maturity.
viii. Bond price is inversely related to interest rate.
ix. Duration of a bond can never exceed its maturity.
x. A bond with a callable feature will usually have a higher YTM than a similar
non-callable bond.
xi. The longer the maturity the smaller is the interest rate risk.
xii. In Deep discount bonds, issue price is always less than face value.
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 200
Theory Questions
1. What is a fixed income security? Give examples. [Introduction Para 4.1]
2. What are the merits and demerits of having fixed income securities in your
portfolio? [Introduction Para 4.1]
(B.Com(H), DU, 2013)
3. What is a bond? Is it same as a debenture? [Para 4.1]
4. What are common the features of a bond? [Para 4.1]
5. Write short notes on
i. Bond Indenture (B.Com(H), DU, 2007, 2009) [Para 4.1]
ii. Zero Interest Fully Convertible Bonds (B.Com(H), DU, 2009, 2014)
[Para 4.2]
iii. Deep Discount Bonds (B.Com(H), DU, 2007, 2014) [Para 4.2]
6. List out different types of bonds and explain them. [Para 4.2]
7. What is convertible bond? Why do investor prefer convertible bonds over
non-convertible bonds? (B.Com(H), DU, 2008)
8. Differentiate between: [Para 4.7]
a. YTC and YTM [Para 4.7]
b. Current yield and Holding Period Yield (or return) [Para 4.7]
c. Coupon Rate and Required rate of return [Para 4.1]
d. YTM and Required rate of return. [Para 4.7]
e. YTM and Realised YTM [Para 4.7]
f. Convertible and Non-convertible bonds [Para 4.2]
g. Callable and Puttable bonds (B.Com(H), DU, 2011) [Para 4.2]
h. Floating Rate bonds (B.Com(H), DU, 2014) [Para 4.2]
9. Examine the relationship between time to maturity and bond valuation, with
the help of a diagram. [Para 4.4]
(B.Com(H), DU, 2012, 2014)
201 Test yourself
10. Differentiate between YTM and HPR (Holding Period Return) on a bond
[Para 4.7]
11. Cite one major shortcoming for each of the following measures: [Para 4.7]
a. Current yield
b. Yield to Maturity
c. Realised compound yield
12. State various properties of bond value described by Malkiel. [Para 4.9]
(B.Com(H), DU, 2013)
13. Write a short note on callable bonds and junk bonds.
(B.Com(H), DU, 2014) [Para 4.2]
14. Write short notes on any two of the following:
a. Bond indenture
b. Deep discount bonds
c. Floating rate bonds (B.Com(H), DU, 2014) [Paras 4.1 & 4.2]
15. Explain the following:
a. Bond Duration [Para 4.10]
b. Bond price - yield relationship [Para 4.4]
16. What are the differences between duration and modified duration?
[Para 4.4]
17. Market interest rates and debenture prices are inversely related. Comment
(B.Com(H), DU, 2010) [Paras 4.1 & 4.4]
18. Examine the relationship between time to maturity and bond duration with
the help of a diagram. (B.Com(H), DU, 2012, 2014) [Para 4.10]
19. What do you mean by credit rating? How is credit rating relevant for inves-
tors? (B.Com(H), DU, 2009, 2012) [Para 4.11]
20. Explain the process of credit rating of debt instruments adopted by credit
rating agencies. (B.Com(H), DU, 2010) [Para 4.11.2]
21. What are the various risks is bonds? Explain [Para 4.8]
22. Write notes on
(i) Interest rate risk [Para 4.8]
(ii) Inflation risk [Para 4.8]
23. How can one determine the value of a DDB? Explain [Para 4.6]
24. How can you determine the value of a convertible bond? [Para 4.5]
25. “The market price of bonds is conversely related to the market interest rates”
comment. (B.Com.(H), GGSIPU, 2015)
26. What is meant by yield to maturity? (B.Com.(H), GGSIPU, 2016)
27. (a) What is the yield to maturity? How is it computed? Illustrate with the help
of an example. (B.Com.(H), GGSIPU, 2017)
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 202
(b) How does interest rates affect yield to maturity? Show clearly with the
help of an example. (B.Com.(H), GGSIPU, 2017)
Practical Problems
1. A Rs. 5000 face value bond is carrying a coupon rate of 14% and has maturity
after 8 years at par. Calculate the intrinsic value of the bond if required rate
of return is 16% and interest is payable (i) annually (ii) semi annually
[Answer-(i) 4566 (ii) 4557]
2. A Rs. 1000 12% bond has 10 years to maturity. It is currently available at a
price of Rs. 960. Should an investor buy this bond if his required rate of return
is 13%?
[Answer-No]
3. A Rs. 1000 bond having coupon rate as 12% and 7 years to maturity is available
at a price of Rs. 1040. The market interest rate is 11%. Is this bond a good
investment?
[Answer-Yes]
4. An investor has the following information for a bond:
a. Face value : 10,000
b. Coupon rate-10%
c. Market price-Rs. 10,500
Find the yield to maturity, yield to call if callable in 5 years at Rs. 10,800.
(B.Com (H), DU, 2011)
[Answer-8.65%, 9.99%]
5. A company is contemplating to issue bonds having face value of Rs. 1000
which will be redeemed over a period of 5 years in five equal instalments.
The bond carries a coupon interest rate of 8%. Find the value at which the
bonds shall be issued to the investors having expected rate of return at 7%.
[Answer-Rs.1,025.66]
6. The following information is given to you regarding the bond:
7. The bond with face value of Rs.100 is currently available at Rs. 96 in the
market. The coupon rate is 14% p.a. the maturity time is 5 years and interest
is paid annually. Compute the yield to maturity of this bond. What would be
your answer if the current selling price is Rs.105 instead of Rs. 96?
(B.Com(H), DU, 2013)
[Answer-15%,12.6%]
8. A 20 Years maturity 9% coupon bond is callable in 5 years at a call price of
Rs. 1050. The bond is currently selling at its YTM which is 8% and interest is
paid semi-annually. Calculate its yield to call?
[Answer-3.72%]
9. The bond with face value of Rs.100 is currently available at Rs. 97 in the
market. The coupon rate is 12% p.a. the maturity time is 5 years and interest
is paid semi-annually. Compute the semi-annual yield to maturity of this bond.
What would be your answer if the current selling price is Rs.110 instead of
Rs. 97? (B.Com(H), DU, 2014)
[Answer-6.05%, 4.66%]
10. A company contemplates to issue bonds having face value of 100 with 7 years
of life. The bond is to be redeemed at a 10% premium; the coupon rate is 12%
for first two years, 15% for next two years and 18% for rest of its life. Compute
the value of the bond when the desired rate of return by the bondholders is
15%.
[Answer-Rs.102.80]
11. The bond (of the face value of Rs.1000) is available in the market for Rs.780.
It has coupon rate of 6% and maturity period of 8 years. If the bond is re-
deemable at par, Compute:
a. Yield to maturity of the bond
b. If the required rate of return of an investor is 12%, should he purchase
the bond? (B.Com(H), DU, 2014)
[Answer- 10.15%, No]
12. A 5 years maturity Rs. 1000 face value 8% coupon bond is currently selling
at YTM of 14%. Interest is payable annually and bond is redeemable at par.
Calculate the current market price of the bond, duration of the bond and
modified duration of the bond. Also interpret the results.
[Answer-Rs. 794.015, 2.74 years, 2.88]
13. A 20 years maturity 9% coupon bond having Rs.1000 face value sells at initial
YTM of 9% and its price is Rs.1000. The modified duration of the bond is 10.5
and bond convexity is 205.6. What will be the expected decrease in bond price
if yield increases from 9% to 12%?
[Answer-22.25% decrease]
14. SIDBI issued Rs.1000 par value 12% coupon bonds paying annual interest pay-
ments and having 5 years to maturity at a price of Rs. 980. The reinvestment
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 204
rate is 10% p.a. calculate the realised YTM on this bond. Should the bond be
bought if the investor’s required rate of return is 13%?
[Answer-Realised YTM-12.07% No.]
15. A Rs.1000 par value 10% coupon bond issued by Aarogya Ltd. has 5 years until
maturity and is currently selling at YTM of 12%. Interest is payable annually
and bond is redeemable at par. Calculate:
a. The current market price of the bond
b. duration of the bond.
[Answer-a. Rs. 927.90, b. 2.77 years]
16. An investor purchases a Rs.1000 par value bond carrying coupon rate of 9%
p.a. at Rs. 950 in January 2014. The bond will mature after 5 years from now
at par. The investor keeps the bond for one year and sells it at price of Rs.
970 after receiving interest of Rs. 90 in December 2014. Calculate his holding
period return from the bond.
[Answer-11.58%]
17. The following information is available in respect of a bond: Face value
Rs. 5000, Coupon rate : 7% Time to Maturity : 4 years, Market price = Rs.
4790, Investor’s Yield = 10%
Find out YTM and Intrinsic value of the bond. Should an investor buy this
bond based on YTM and intrinsic value?
[Answer-8.15%, Rs. 4525, No]
18. Kaira Ltd. issues a 15%, 3 years bond with face value and maturity value of
Rs. 1000. What is the value of the bond if the required rate of return is (i)
11% (ii) 12% or (iii) 13%. Why are the values different? What is the relationship
between bond’s value and required rate of return or interest rate?
[Answer-1098, 1073, 1047, Negative]
19. Mack Ltd. comes out with a scheme which specifies that “ Deposit Rs. 16000
now and receive Rs. 1500 p.a. at the end of every year for next 5 years along
with Rs. 16000 at the end of 5th year.” Should the scheme be accepted by an
investor if the required rate of return is 13%?
[Answer-No]
20. Python Ltd.’s 12%, bond with face value of Rs. 1000 is currently available at
a price of Rs. 950 and has 8 years remaining to maturity . The redemption
value will be 90% of the face value. Calculate YTM of the bond.
[Answer-12.12%]
21. KBC Ltd. is proposing to issue 9% bonds of face value of Rs. 1000 redeemable
in 5 annual instalments of Rs. 200 each every year over 5 years period. If
required rate of return is 7%, at what price the bonds be offered to investors?
[Answer-Rs. 1051]
205 Test yourself
22. An investor purchased a 15% bond at its par value of Rs. 1000 when time to
maturity was 5 years. He sold the bond for Rs. 1300 after two years. Out of
the proceeds he immediately purchased a bond carrying coupon rate of 10%
which has 3 years to maturity and is redeemable at a price of Rs. 1000 i.e. its
face value. Find out YTM of the investor over the 5 years.
[Answer-12% approx]
23. Juhi Ltd. had issued Rs. 1000 face value perpetual 12% debentures 15 years
ago at a price of Rs. 1000 each. Interest rates have changed now and the
debentures are now selling at a yield of 18%.
(i) Calculate the current expected market price of the debenture.
(ii) Should an investor buy the debenture at a price of Rs. 780?
(iii) What is the yield?
[Answer-(i) Rs. 666.67 (ii) No (iii) 15.38%]
24. Mr. Tiwari bought a 9% bond with 10 years maturity, having face value of
Rs. 1000 at its issue price of Rs. 1000 six years ago. The bond is redeemable
at par. It’s market price now is Rs. 1100. Should Mr. Tiwari sell this bond?
Why? Assume that the required rate of return is 13%.
[Answer-Sell]
25. Mr. Kailash bought a 16% bond with 15 years maturity, having face value of
Rs. 10000 at its issue price of Rs. 9950 one year ago. The bond is redeemable
at a premium of 10%. It’s market price now is Rs. 10150. Should Mr. Kailash
sell this bond? Why? Assume that the required rate of return is 14%. If Mr.
Kailash sells this bond at a price of Rs. 11000, what would be his Holding
period return?
[Answer-Sell, 26.63%]
26. An investor is considering the purchase of the following bond:
Face value Rs. 1000
Coupon rate : 13%
Maturity : 8 years
i. If he wants a yield of 17%, what is the maximum price he should be
ready to pay for?
ii. If the bond is selling for Rs. 1241, what would be his yield if he buys the
bond and holds it till maturity?
[Answer-(i) 832 (ii) 8.58%]
27. A Rs.1000 par value bond having coupon rate 8% p.a. and 5 years to matu-
rity is currently selling at Rs. 885. Its yield to maturity is 14%. Calculate the
Duration of the bond. Calculate modified duration. What will be the effect
of 1% increase in yield on bond price?
[Answer-4.22 years, –3.7, price will decrease by 3.7%]
Fixed income securities - Valuation Yields & Risks 206
28. A Rs.1000 par value bond having coupon rate 8.5% p.a. and 6 years to maturity
is currently selling at YTM of 12%. The bond is redeemable at a premium of
5%. Calculate the Duration of the bond. Calculate its modified duration. What
will be the effect of 1% decrease in yield on bond price?
[Answer-4.88 years, –4.35, price will increase by 4.35%]
29. The market price of a Rs.1000 par value bond carrying coupon rate of 17%
and maturing after 5 years is Rs. 965. The reinvestment rate is 15%. Calculate
YTM and Realised YTM of the bond. Should this bond be bought if required
rate of return is 18%?
[Answer-18.02%, 17.34%, No]
Project Work
Go to the website www.moneycontrol.com and collect information about any bond
issued by a company in India in recent past. Search for the following (i) face value
(ii) Coupon rate (iii) time to maturity (iv) redemption price (v) Call option if any
and callable price and time to call (vi) Current market price.
Now assume that the required rate of return is 13%. Calculate whether the bond
is underpriced or overpriced in the market?
5 EQUITY ANALYSIS -
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
C H A P T E R
leArninG outcoMes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Understand different approaches to security valuation- Fundamen-
tal analysis, Technical analysis and Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Differentiate between top down approach and bottom up approach
of fundamental analysis
Explain EIC framework.
Highlight the importance of fundamental analysis
Identify various economy wide factors and Perform Economic
analysis
Identify various industry wide factors and Perform Industry
analysis
Identify various company level factors and Perform company
analysis
Explain the limitations of fundamental analysis
Further they are also redeemable at maturity. Fixed income securities are
preferred by more risk averse investors who do not want to take high risk
and who prefer regular income rather than capital appreciation. Most of the
old age and retired people fall in this category. However bonds and deben-
tures may not interest to other investors who are less risk averse and prefer
capital appreciation rather than regular income. Most of the young people
and speculators fall in this category. For such investors equity shares are
ideal investment option. It must be noted that investors generally invest in
both bonds and equity shares as per their investment goals and investment
horizon. This chapter deals with equity shares.
Equity shares are fundamentally different from debt securities or bonds.
Equity shares represent ownership right in a company but return on equity
shares is not fixed. Income from equity shares varies depending upon the
amount of dividend declared by the company, which in turn, depends upon
company’s profits besides a number of other factors. Equity shareholders are
the owners of the company and not its creditors. Equity shares of publicly
held companies are mandatorily listed on stock exchanges, which in turn,
provides a platform for purchase and sale of equity shares. Hence equity
shares are more liquid than bonds. The market price of a share represents
shareholder’s wealth and hence the market value of a company. Share prices
move according to the information available in the market. Expectations also
play a major role in share price movement. A positive information or expec-
tation will increase market price of a share while a negative information or
expectation will dampen it. For example, market price of a company which
has shown higher growth in profitability increases while for a company,
which is in distress, the market price declines.
As discussed in chapter 1, security analysis is the process of analyzing avail-
able securities in terms of return, risk and other salient characteristics. It also
covers the aspect of security valuation wherein we calculate the theoretical
or fair price or intrinsic value of a security. Equity analysis is the analysis
of equity shares in terms of return and risk.
(i) GDP Growth Rate : Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total val-
ue of goods and services produced in an economy during a given
period. Growth rate in GDP is an important indicator of the overall
state of the economy. Therefore fund managers and institutional
investors carefully examine GDP growth rates before deciding about
the countries where investment is intended. As per National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) of USA, two successive quarter de-
cline in GDP growth rate signals a recession in the economy. On the
other hand improvement in GDP growth rates indicates improving
economic conditions. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is another
important source of manufacturing activity in an economy. Funda-
mental analysts are interested in understanding whether the overall
business and economic condition in the economy will be in terms
of boom or recession. If there is optimism and boom as shown by
GDP growth rate and IIP then that presents a right time to invest in
growing companies.
(ii) Inflation : Inflation erodes purchasing power of money and there-
fore in times of inflation nominal return does not reflect true or real
earnings from an asset. Mounting inflation in some of the developing
countries, including India, is one of the reasons for low level of in-
vestment. Increase in inflation rates also adversely affects product
demand and hence corporate profitability declines in general.
(iii) Interest Rates : Term structure of interest rate in an economy affects
capital investment and hence income level. Higher interest rate is
a symbol of tight monetary policy and increases cost of borrowing
which in turn lowers investment and business expansion. Thus interest
rates are negatively related with stock performance in an economy.
(iv) External Sector : Foreign trade sector or external sector of an econ-
omy is an important factor to analyse in this era of globalization.
External sector of an economy can be examined with the help of
balance of payment (BOP) account which is a statement of receipts
and payments of a given country for the transactions entered into
with the rest of the world. These transactions are further classified
into current account (for merchandise and services or invisibles) and
capital account. A widening current account deficit creates pressure
on exchange rate and leads to further deteriorating economic con-
dition.
(v) Infrastructure : An economy with sound infrastructure facilities
such as power, telecommunication, roads & transport etc. is always
preferred by institutional investors. Good infrastructure is necessary
for continuous and growing production level.
213 EIC Framework Para 5.3
Economic Forecasting
Analysis of various economy wide factors can be performed using the simple
statistical techniques such as trend analysis or sophisticated econometric
Para 5.3 Equity analysis - fundamental analysis 214
(iii) Maturity Stage : During maturity stage also the product de-
mand grows but at a decreasing rate. At the end of this stage
the industry reaches a saturation point when the demand for
the product reaches its maximum and stops growing. This stage
is also characterized by stable returns but investors prefer to
exit once an industry reaches to the maturity stage.
(iv) Declining Stage : Industries during this stage face decline
in product sales and hence negative growth rate. The profit-
ability of all companies, in general, decline once the industry
reaches this stage. Examples of industries in declining stage
in India at present include – conventional cell phones, color
T.Vs, two-wheelers etc. These products have been replaced by
their substitutes such as smart phones, LCD & LED TVs and
low cost cars.
3. Nature of Product of the Industry
The nature of the product of the industry has a bearing on its growth
and profitability. If the product is seasonal and agricultural e.g. sugar,
its growth rate will depend on monsoon in a particular year. Simi-
larly if the product is not an end-product rather used as material or
input in other industries then the growth rate of such an industry
depends upon the growth in industry where such a product is used.
For example growth and profitability of spare parts industry depends
upon automobile industry.
4. Nature of Competition
It is important to understand the nature of competition in an industry,
whether perfect competition, monopolistic, oligopoly or monopoly.
Companies in an industry with perfect competition have least profit-
ability as compared to a company in monopoly industry. For example
IT industry in India has monopolistic competition.
5. Industrial Policy of the Government
Government’s policy towards a particular industry also affects its
growth prospects and hence performance. Since 1991, Government
of India has followed liberalization and privatization policy allowing
private and foreign companies in a number of industries dominated
by public sectors such as banking, insurance and retail industries.
This led to stiff competition as well as improvement in efficiency of
good companies in these industries. Further, there are a few indus-
tries which enjoy tax exemptions and/or special subsidies such as
biotechnology, oil and gas etc. Government also protects small and
217 EIC Framework Para 5.3
cash inflow from the share of that company which is used in determination
of the intrinsic value of the share of that company. The intrinsic value of
the share is then compared with the prevailing market price to find out
whether the share is undervalued or overvalued. If the share of a company
is available in the market at a price less than its true intrinsic value then it
is said that the share is undervalued. Hence a prospective investor should
purchase it. On the other hand if the share of a company is available in the
market at a price more than its true intrinsic value then it is said that the
share is overvalued. Hence a prospective investor should not purchase it.
Rather, if an investor already holds such a share, it should be sold.
The intrinsic value of a company depends upon the amount of dividends
and growth rate, which in turn depends upon the amount of earnings.
Hence analysis of earnings of the company is of utmost importance in case
of company analysis.
There are various sources for collecting necessary data for company analy-
sis. The company level data is primarily collected from the annual financial
statements of the company such as
- Balance sheet
- Income statement
- Cash flow statement
- Notes to financial statements
- Auditor’s report
- Social and sustainability reports, if any
- Corporate governance reports
Company analysis covers the following parameters of study- financial ratio
analysis especially earnings analysis, analysis of company management and
corporate governance, analysis of product differentiation and innovations.
(1) Financial Ratio Analysis
Financial ratio or accounting ratio is based on the historical perfor-
mance of the company. These ratios can be calculated using balance
sheet and income statement data. It covers analysis of profitability,
liquidity, solvency and efficiency level of a company.
(i) Earnings analysis or Profitability
Past profitability of a company is a good indicator of its
future prospects. Earnings analysis is an important component
of company analysis because future cash inflows from an
equity share depends to a great extent on the earnings of the
company. A company’s overall profitability may be analysed
219 EIC Framework Para 5.3
PAT–Preference dividend
Return on equity = × 100
Net worth
Return on equity indicates whether equity shareholders
are getting adequate return on their funds or not. Return
on equity is higher than return on investment if the com-
pany is profitable and uses debt. Equity shareholders are
more interested in analyzing return on equity rather than
the overall profitability of the company because that is
what matters to them.
b. Earnings per share (EPS) : Earnings per share is cal-
culated by dividing the amount of profit after tax and
preference dividends by the total number of outstanding
equity shares of the company. Hence it shows how much
amount is earned per equity share of the company. It is
easy to understand than any other ratio and is widely
reported in news and media. An increasing EPS shows
the relative strength of the company.
PAT–Preference dividend
Earning per share =
Number of equity shares
share price of Satyam Ltd., which was one of the most profitable IT
companies in India till the year 2008, declined significantly after the
report of management fraud and bad corporate governance in January
2009. Investors must ensure that the companies in which they are
investing have competent, efficiency and professional management
which follow all corporate governance norms.
(3) Product Differentiation and Innovations
Two companies may sell same product (such as detergent) but the
company which differentiates its product from other products avail-
able in the market and engages itself in product innovations is a good
investment option. Further, creation of brand also helps a company
in reaping higher profits.
Besides above it is necessary to analyse production and marketing
strategies of a company and its future plans regarding expansion,
mergers and acquisitions etc. All these help in estimating company’s
earnings and hence dividends to the shareholders.
Summary
1. There are three approaches to security analysis and valuation – Fundamental
analysis, Technical analysis and Efficient Market Hypothesis.
2. Equity shares are different from bonds as they do not provide fixed income
and have infinite life.
3. As per Fundamental analysis, in the long term, the price of a security is equal
to its intrinsic value.
4. As per Technical analysis, past price and volume data can be plotted and on
the basis of charts and trends, future prices can be predicted.
5. Efficient market hypothesis states that the security prices fully reflect all
available information and hence the price of the security at any time is its
fair price.
6. Fundamental analysis is based on the analysis of various Economy, Industry
and company-wide factors.
7. There are two approaches to Fundamental analysis- Top down approach and
Bottom up approach.
8. In Top down approach, which is more popular, we first analyse Economy wide
factors, then industry analysis and finally company analysis. This is popularly
termed as EIC framework or analysis.
9. Economic analysis includes the analysis and forecast of various macro-
economic indicators such as GDP growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate,
exchange rate, economic policies, tax policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy,
foreign trade policy etc.
225 Test yourself
10. Industry analysis is concerned with the analysis of Nature of industry, industry
life cycle, growth rate in industry, completion etc.
11. Company analysis primarily includes analysing the earnings and dividend
policy of the company. Other factors which are analysed at company level
include- liquidity, solvency, operating efficiency, operating and financial risk,
management and corporate governance, product innovations etc.
Test yourself
True False
i. Cyclical industries are good investment options when the economy is recov-
ering from a recession.
ii. Defensive industries outperform other industries during economic boom.
iii. In India an year of bad monsoon can adversely affect stock market.
iv. Industries in the maturity stage are good to invest in.
v. Labour conditions are not important in equity analysis.
vi. When intrinsic value is less than current price, the security should be bought.
vii. Macroeconomic outlook does not affect stock market.
viii. Corporate governance is an important parameter of company analysis.
ix. New economy stock are less sensitive to business cycles.
x. A company with high operating and financial leverage is a good investment
option in times of declining sales and profitability.
Ans : (i) T (ii) F (iii) T (iv) F (v) F (vi) F (vii) F (viii) T (ix)
F (x) F
Theory Questions
1. What are the approaches to security valuation? Explain in brief. [Para 5.1]
2. What is fundamental analysis? How is it performed? [Para 5.2]
3. What do you mean by Fundamental Analysis? State the rationale and proce-
dure of this analysis. (B.Com (H) DU 2007) [Paras 5.2 & 5.3]
4. Explain EIC (Economy-Industry-Company) approach.
(B.Com (H) DU 2013) [Para 5.3]
5. What are the steps followed in Fundamental Analysis for analyzing securities
of a company? (B.Com (H) DU 2008) [Paras 5.2 & 5.3]
6. Why is it necessary to perform economic analysis? Explain various parameters
being analyzed in economic analysis. [Para 5.3.1]
7. What is top-down approach of equity analysis? Explain in brief. [Para 5.2]
Equity analysis - fundamental analysis 226
Project Work
Go to National stock exchange’s website www.Nseindia.com and download the data
for various sectoral indices such as banking index, petro index, pharma index, IT
index etc. for the period 2003-2013 on quarterly basis. Now go to Reserve Bank of
India website www.rbi.org and download quarterly GDP data for the same period.
Plot the data regarding a sector index and GDP in a diagram. What kind of rela-
tionship you find? Which of the sectors are more sensitive to GDP?
(Hint : Perform regression analysis by regressing sectoral index values on GDP
data. The slope of the regression equation gives the sensitivity of that sector to the
broader economy. The sector with highest slope is most sensitive to GDP).
6 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
C H A P T E R
learninG ouTcomes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Explain the meaning and basic tenets of Technical analysis
Differentiate between fundamental analysis and technical analysis
Understand various types of charts
Draw line chart, bar chart, point and figure chart and candlestick
chart
Explain Dow theory and Elliott Wave theory
Understand and use various market indicators and stock specific
indicators to predict future price behaviour
Use moving average analysis to identify buy and sell signals
State the limitations of technical analysis
shares for a fairly long period of time. However there are many investors,
especially speculators who do not want to invest for long. Their investment
horizon is short term and hence they want to predict stock prices in rela-
tively short term. This chapter deals with the second approach of security
valuation- Technical analysis.
wise investment decision requires both - i.e. the right kind of securities
and right time of investment.
(viii) Time horizon : Fundamental analysis determines intrinsic value of
a share and hence the investment decisions based on fundamental
analysis is done for a relatively longer period. Technical analysis is
used to predict stock prices in near future. Hence technical analysis
is useful in short term investment making such as traders.
(ix) Emphasis : In case of fundamental analysis, the emphasis is on the
economic, industry and company fundamentals. It is not driven by
market forces or investor behaviour. Hence the intrinsic value of
a share will change only if there is a change in these fundamental
factors. Technical analysis, on the other hand, is based on market
movement of prices as determined by demand and supply forces.
Hence investors’ behaviour does affect technical analysis. In recent
times it has been shown that in stock market, investors do not behave
rationally. Investors are irrational and are subject to a number of
behavioural biases such as- overconfidence, regret avoidance, loss
aversion etc. Hence a new area of research in finance i.e. Behavioural
Finance has recently been developed.
(x) Who uses : Fundamental analysis is used primarily by long term
investors whereas technical analysis is used primarily by speculators
or short term traders in the market.
As explained above there are many points of differences between funda-
mental analysis and technical analysis. These two approaches of security
valuation are fundamentally different. But it does not mean that fundamental
and technical analysis are mutually exclusive. They are complementary as
a wise investment decision requires both - i.e. the right kind of securities
and right time of investment. Fundamental analysis helps in identification
of the right type of securities i.e. securities having higher real worth or
intrinsic value than the market price. Technical analysis supplements fun-
damental analysis in terms of timing the market. It can be used wisely to
decide about the right time to buy or sell.
believe that price fluctuations reflect logical and emotional forces. The
basic tenets or premises of technical analysis are-
1. The price of a security is determined by the demand and supply
forces operating in a market.
2. Prices tend to move in trends over long term. This long term trend
sets the direction of market prices.
3. Price fluctuations reflect logical and emotional forces.
4. Price movements, whatever their cause, once in force persist for
some period of time and can be detected.
5. The trends in security prices may reverse due to shift in demand and
supply.
6. The changes in demand and supply can be predicted well in advance
with the help of charts and technical tools.
Hence the real task of a Technical analyst is to
i. Identify the trend and
ii. Recognize when one trend comes to an end and prices start
moving in the opposite direction.
For this, technical analyst uses a number of charts, patterns and technical
indicators which are discussed below. It must be noted that charts are the
basic tools for technical analysis.
6.4.1 Charts
Charts are the basic tools for performing technical analysis. It provides a
visual assistance to the technical analyst in detecting evolving and changing
patterns of price behaviour. Charts may be of various types such as Line
chart, Bar chart, Point and Figure Chart and Candlestick chart. It must be
noted that charts are useful both in the analysis of individual securities
as well as market movement analysis. On a particular day, the price of a
share varies many times. It is difficult to plot all the prices prevailing for a
particular stock on a particular day. Therefore generally the following four
prices are of interest to an investor- Open, High, Low and Close.
Para 6.4 Technical analysis 232
Open Price : Open price is the price at which the trading on a share starts
on a particular day.
High price : High price is the highest price at which the share has been
traded on a particular day.
Low price: Low price is the lowest price at which the share has been traded
on a particular day.
Close price: Close price is the price at which trading on a share closes on
a particular day.
There are various types of charts which are used in technical analysis.
i. Line chart
ii. Bar chart
iii. Bar chart of prices with volume
iv. Point and figure chart
v. Candlestick chart
These charts are explained below:
i. Line Chart : On a line chart X axis shows the time or number of
days/week. On Y axis stock prices are shown. On a line chart only
closing prices of a stock are shown. They are connected with each
other successively with straight lines as shown in Fig 6.1. The stock
prices on five days are Rs. 14,15,14,17 and 12.
Fig 6.1 – Line Chart
Although line chart is convenient to draw, it does not reveal anything about
the intraday volatility of the stock price. It shows only the closing prices
and not other prices such as high price, low price or open price.
233 Tools of technical analysis Para 6.4
Para 6.4 Technical analysis 234
represent time or price level, rather they just show the directional
movement of prices irrespective of the quantity of change.
E.g. A stock’s price over the past 30 days is recorded as Rs. 20, 25,
28, 26, 25, 35, 37, 40, 42, 38, 35, 37, 39, 41, 34, 28, 25, 37, 40, 38, 36, 34,
36, 39, 41, 45, 43, 42, 40, 38.
The point and figure chart will appear as shown in Fig 6.3 :
Price
change
Fig 6.3 : Point and Figure Chart
Fig 6.4 : Candlesticks Chart pattern
v. Price and Volume Chart: Price –volume chart shows the high, low and
close price of a share along with its volume in the same chart. The
utility of this chart is that it provides information about the volume
of trading regarding that share besides showing the relevant prices.
Price and volume chart for the data given in the following table can
be depicted as shown in Fig 6.5.
Day Volume
(in 000) High Low Close
1 10000 20 6 14
2 11000 17 9 15
3 15000 19 12 14
4 14000 23 16 17
5 17000 14 10 12
Para 6.4 Technical analysis 236
Fig 6.5 : Price- Volume Chart
Price
Secondary Trend
Time
Fig 6.6 : Bull Market (Dow Theory)
Primary Trend
Time
Fig 6.7: Bear Market (Dow Theory)
The Elliott Wave Theory categorizes the waves from largest to small-
est as follows:
Grand Supercycle, Supercycle, Cycle, Primary, Intermediate, Minor,
Minute, Minuette, Sub-Minuette.
Key Points
u Every action is followed by a reaction.
u Five waves move in the direction of the main trend, followed
by three corrective waves (a 5-3 move).
u A 5-3 move completes a cycle.
u This 5-3 move then becomes two sub-divisions of the next
higher 5-3 wave.
u The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time
span of each may vary.
5
3 B
4 A
1
C
Fig 6.8 A 5-3 wave pattern in Bull Market (Elliott Wave Theory)
Stock
price MA Line
Sell
Buy
Stock price
line
Time
Illustration 6.1 : Following are the daily closing index values of CNX NIFTY
over the past 30 days. Calculate 7 Days moving average and 4 Days Moving
average and depict the moving average line and index line on a line chart.
241 Tools of technical analysis Para 6.4
Fig 6.9A : Moving average (MA)- 7 days Moving Average and Index
“Joseph E Granville* has listed the following 8 basic rules using 200
days moving average.
ii. Support and Resistance levels does not imply that stock price
cannot move beyond these levels. Stock price may breach
support and resistance levels. If the stock price goes beyond
Fig 6.9 : Support and Resistance Level
resistance level, it suggests a strong move in upward direction
and hence the future stock prices are predicted to be higher. It
provides a good opportunity to buy. On the other hand if the
stock price goes below support level, it suggests a strong move
in downward direction and hence the future stock prices are
predicted to be lower. It provides a good opportunity to sell.
Price
Resistance Level
Support
Level
Time
Price
T1 T2
Resistance
Level
Fig 6.10A : Double Bottom
Time
Price
Time
Price
Higher Top
Higher Bottom
Time
Lower Top
Lower Bottom
Time
S1
Time
Para 6.5 Technical analysis 250
Price
S2
S1
H
Time
Fig 6.14: inverted Head and Shoulder
(vi) Triangles
Triangle patterns can also be detected in stock price charts. Tri-
angle patterns can be of three types – symmetrical, ascending and
descending triangle. Symmetrical triangle suggests a range bound
market till it is complete. When ascending triangle breaks towards
above, it suggests bull run in near future and hence a buy signal. If
descending triangle breaks towards below, it implies price decline in
near future and hence suggests a ‘sell signal’. Triangles are shown in
Fig 6.15, 6.15A and 6.15B.
Fig 6.13 : Symmetrical Triangle
251 Specific stock indicators Para 6.5
Price
Fig 6.13A : Ascending Triangle
Time
Price
Time
Fig. 6.15A : ASCENDING TRIANGLE
Para 6.5 Technical analysis 252
Price
Time
(vii) Flags :
A flag chart pattern is detected when a bull rally or bear phase enters
into a consolidation pattern which appears as a rectangle or paral-
lelogram. The consolidation phase forms the ‘flag’ for a continuing
trend. It is predicted that after the consolidation phase is over, the
stock price will move in the same direction in which they were moving
before the formation of flag pattern.
Price
Time
Summary
1. Technical analysis is based on the premise that history repeats itself.
2. As per technical analysis, future prices can be predicted on the basis of past
price and volume data.
3. Technical analysis is primarily based on charts and hence technical analysts
are also termed as ‘chartists’.
4. Dow theory states that at any point of time three trends work in a market-
primary trend, secondary or intermediate trend and Minor trend.
5. Primary trend is the long term trend that takes the entire market up or down.
6. Secondary or intermediate trend works in the opposite direction. Hence in
an up market or bull market, it is the period of decline in prices.
7. Minor trends are day to day fluctuation and hence are not very useful in
predicting the direction of the market.
8. There are various types of charts such as Line chart, Bar chart, Point and
Figure chart, Candlestick Chart.
9. Technical analysis is based on a number of tools and techniques.
10. Moving average analysis is used to identify the direction of the market and
to identify buy and sell signals.
11. A number of chart patterns can be detected by using past prices such as
Head and Shoulder, Inverted head and shoulder, Double Top, Double Bottom,
Triangle, Flags etc.
12. Technical analysis is used primarily by short term traders and speculators in
stock market.
255 Test Yourself
Test Yourself
True/False
i. There is no difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
ii. Technical analysis uses past price data to predict future prices.
iii. As per Dow theory bull market is in operation when successive highs and
lows are lower than previous highs and lows respectively.
iv. Intermediate trend is the long term trend in stock market.
v. Intermediate trend in a bear market is upward sloping.
vi. When the stock price crosses and goes down the neckline of a head and
shoulder pattern, a further decline in price is expected in near future.
vii. Moving average analysis is used to identify the direction and buy or sell signals.
viii. A dark candle shows that closing price was higher than the open price.
ix. Market breadth is the difference between number of stocks that increase in
prices and number of stocks that decline in prices.
x. When stock price approaches support price, it is a good opportunity to buy.
xi. Minor trends are very important in predicting market condition.
Ans. i. F ii. T iii. F iv. F v. T vi. T vii T viii F ix T x. T xi. F
Theory Questions
1. What is technical analysis? What are its basic tenets? [Para 6.1, 6.3]
2. What is the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analy-
sis? (B.Com (H) DU 2012) [Para 6.2]
3. Explain Technical analysis. How is it different from fundamental analysis?
(B.Com (H) DU 2009, 2010, 2013) [Para 6.1, 6.2]
4. Explain various types of charts used by technical analysts to predict future
price behaviour. (B.Com (H) DU 2014) [Para 6.4.1]
5. Explain Dow theory. Explain its relevance in analysis of securities.
(B.Com (H) DU 2008) [Para 6.4.2]
6. “A technical analyst is primarily a trend analysis”. Comment [Paras 6.1, 6.4.2]
7. Write short notes on the following
i. Point and Figure Chart (B.Com (H) DU 2013) [Para 6.4.1]
ii. Support and Resistance Level (B.Com (H) DU 2011, 2012, 2013)
[Para 6.4.2]
iii. Head and Shoulder chart pattern [Para 6.4.2]
iv. Double Top pattern [Para 6.4.2]
Technical analysis 256
Project work
Go to any financial website such as www.yahoofinance.com or www.nseindia.
com and download daily price data for a company of your choice for the past six
months. The price data should comprise of the following
i. Open price
ii. High price
iii. Low price
iv. Close price
Prepare:
a. A bar chart using the stock price data.
b. A candlestick chart using the price data
c. A line chart using closing prices of the share.
d. Which of the following chart patterns you can identify in your line chart
i. Head and shoulder ii. Inverted head and shoulder iii. Double top iv
Double bottom v. Triangle vi. Flags
e. Calculate 25 days moving average of the closing prices of the share. Plot
the moving average line and stock price line in a graph. Identify various
buy and sell signals.
f. Assume that you buy a share as per buy signal and sell as per sell signal.
Will you be able to earn profits. Show all calculations assuming that you
have Rs. 10000 to invest.
7 EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS
C H A P T E R
leaRninG oUTcomes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Understand the concept of Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH)
Understand the basic idea behind the notion of EMH
Explain Random Walk Theory/hypothesis
Specify different levels or forms of market efficiency
Specify the implications of efficient market hypothesis
Explain various tests for weak form of market efficiency
Explain various tests for semi strong form of market efficiency
Explain various tests for strong form of market efficiency
Analyze the role of portfolio management in an efficient market.
258
259 Efficient Market Hypothesis Para 7.2
takes a different view. An efficient stock market is one in which the price
for any given stock effectively represents the true intrinsic value or fair price
of the stock. Hence any time is a good time to buy or sell.
Behaviour of stock prices has always been an interesting area of research
for analysts and academicians. Maurice Kendall (1953) studied stock price
behaviour overtime and found no predictable pattern in stock prices.
Prices seem to evolve randomly. Randomness in stock prices implies that
prices increase or decrease only in response to new information which is
unpredictable.
Strong form
Weak Form
portfolio. The investor can invest in market index and earn market return
at market risk. Active management i.e. analyzing individual securities for
stock selection, building up optional portfolio and portfolio rebalancing
does not yield any superior gains in an efficient market.
It must be noted that Passive Management Strategy does not mean that
all investors have to assume same amount of risk and earn same return
i.e. market return. Investors can combine this Passive Portfolio i.e. market
portfolio with risk free asset to suit their risk-return preferences.
not. The basic idea here is to check whether the stock prices follow
a random walk i.e. whether successive price changes are unrelated
and independent.
(i) Serial Correlation test (or autocorrelation test)
This test checks for the presence of serial correlation or autocor-
relation in the stock return series. Serial correlation measures
the degree of association between returns in a given period
with those in the previous period. Positive serial correlation
means that positive returns tend to follow positive returns and
negative returns tend to follow negative returns. Jegadeesh
and Titman (1993)1 found a momentum effect in short run
over a period of 3 months to 12 months. They found good or
bad performance of particular stocks continues overtime. Past
winners tend to be future winners and past losers tend to be
future losers. Therefore a strategy in which investor selects to
buy past winners and sell past losers yield abnormal return in
stock market.
DeBondt and Thaler (1985)2 reported the evidence of negative
serial correlation in return series over long run (3 to 5 years).
Thus past winners tend to become future losers whereas past
losers turn into future winners. Therefore the investment
strategy that buys loser stocks and sells winner stocks can
yield abnormal returns over long run of 3 to 5 years. This re-
turn reversal is attributed to investors’ over-reaction in stock
market. Over-reaction effect implies that investors tend to
over-react to both good news (and hence good performing
stocks become over-priced) as well as bad news (and hence
bad performing stocks become under priced). Contrarians in-
vestment strategy works well in the long run. In India Tripathi
and Aggarwal (2010)3 documented to presence of asymmetric
over-reaction effect in Indian stock market. Indian investors
tend to over-react to good news but under react to bad news.
The presence of serial correlation or auto-correlation in return
series implies that the market is weak form inefficient.
(ii) Filter rules
Weak form of market efficiency requires that the investment
strategies based on past price or volume data (i.e. technical
1. Jegadeesh N & Titman S (1993), “Returns to Buying winners and Selling Losers : Implications
for stock market” Efficiency Journal of Finance 48(1), 65-91.
2. De Bondt W. & Thaler, R (1985) “Does stock Market overreact”? Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805
3. Tripathi V. & Aggarwal S. (2009) “over-reaction effect in Indian Stock Market” Asian Journal
of Business and Accounting vol.
265 Tests of market efficiency Para 7.5
Summary
1. Random walk theory implies that stock prices follow a random walk. Suc-
cessive price changes are independent and unpredictable.
2. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) implies that security prices reflect fully
all available information and adjust rapidly to the inflow of new information.
3. EMH is concerned with informational efficiency of the market.
4. There are three forms of market efficiency - weak form, semi strong form
and strong form.
5. In weak form of market efficiency security prices reflect all past price and
volume information.
6. Technical analysis is of no use in a weak form efficient market.
7. One can make superior profits by using fundamental analysis in a market
which is weak form efficient.
8. In semi strong form of market efficiency security prices reflect all past price
and volume information as well as all publicly available information.
9. Both fundamental analysis and technical analysis are of no use in case of
semi strong form efficient market.
10. In strong form of market efficiency security prices reflect all past price and
volume information, all publicly available information as well as all inside
information.
Efficient market hypothesis 268
Test Yourself
True/False
i. Random walk theory implies that stock prices are predictable.
ii. Efficient market hypothesis implies that security prices reflect fully all avail-
able information and adjust rapidly to the inflow of new information.
iii. EMH is concerned with informational efficiency as well as allocational effi-
ciency of the market.
iv. There are three forms of market efficiency - weak form, semi strong form
and strong form.
v. In weak form of market efficiency security prices reflect all past price and
volume information as well as all publicly available information.
vi. Fundamental analysis is of no use in a weak form efficient market.
vii. One can make superior profits by using fundamental analysis in a strong
form efficient market.
viii. In an efficient market it is possible to earn consistently abnormal returns or
outperform the market.
ix. Passive management is the best strategy in an efficient market.
x. Serial correlation test is a test for strong form of market efficiency.
Ans: i. F ii. T iii. F iv. T v. F vi. F vii. F viii. F ix. T x. F
Theory Questions
1. What do you mean by “Efficient Markets”? Explain. [Para 7.2]
2. What is Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)? What are the forms of market
efficiency? [Paras 7.2 & 7.3]
3. Explain the Efficient market hypothesis and three forms of market efficiency.
What is the basic idea behind the efficient market hypothesis?
(B.Com (H)DU 2010, 2012, 2014) [Paras 7.2 & 7.3]
4. What is Random Walk Theory? Explain. [Para 7.1]
269 Project work
Project work
Market efficiency have been tested by many researchers around the globe since its
development by Fama (1970). Can you prepare a list –decade wise- about a few of
such research studies. What have been the prominent research studies in Indian
stock market in the context of market efficiency? Explain the outcome of any one
such research work.
8 VALUATION OF EQUITY SHARES
C H A P T E R
learninG outcoMes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Explain peculiar features of an equity share
Explain various models for equity valuation
Determine intrinsic value of an equity share using dividend dis-
count model
Calculate value of a share using Earnings multiplier Model
Calculate required rate of return from an equity share using CAPM
value of all expected future cash flows from the asset. Such a valuation
concept very well considers time value of money and the underlying risk of
the security which is ignored by accounting based measures such as book
value or liquidation value (replacement value).
Valuation of fixed income securities is rather easy because of the certainty of
future cash inflows in the form of interests and redemption value. However
valuation of equity shares or common stocks requires sophisticated analysis
of related financial information so that reasonable forecasts about expected
future cash flows can be made. Because of variable and uncertain income
on equity shares, their valuation is not so straight-forward.
hand, the market prices of equity shares are very much related with
the earnings of the company as equity shares represent ownership
claims over the assets of the company. High growth and earnings of
the company increase the amount of expected future cash inflows
in the form of dividends or higher prices. Hence market price of the
shares will increase. On the other hand, declining profitability and
low growth is associated with lower values for equity shares.
There can be two cases under DCF technique for valuation of an equity
share:
(a) When holding period is pre decided or finite
An investor may decide to hold the share for a specified period of
time and hence would be selling it at some price at the end of his
investment period. For the sake of simplicity here we can assume
that the expected dividends every year and selling price at the end
of holding period can be estimated in advance.
(i) One year holding period
When an investor wants to hold the share only for one year and
tries to determine its fair price, he needs to make an estimate
of the year-end dividend and selling price. Given these two,
the fair value can be calculated by using discounting rate (i.e.
required rate of return from equity shares).
The formula for equity valuation when we know the year end
dividend and selling price is :
D + P1
P0 = 1 ………………………………………………..(8.1)
1 + Ke
where P0 = Present value of share (fair price)
D1 = Expected year end dividend
P1 = Expected year end selling price
Ke = The required rate of return from equity investment
Illustration 8.1 : An investor wants to invest in the equity shares of XYZ
Ltd. for one year. The company is expected to declare a dividend of Rs. 2
per share at the year end. Further a leading security analyst has projected
the year end target price of this company’s shares as Rs.120. Do you think
the stock is a good buy at a price of Rs.100 now. Assume that the required
rate of return is 10%.
Solution : We are given D1 = Rs.2
P1 = Rs.120
Ke = 10%
D +P
\ P0 = 1 1
1 + Ke
2 + 120
=
1 + 0.10
122
= = rs.110.9 = rs.111
1.1
Para 8.2 Valuation of equity shares 274
Therefore the fair price of this equity share is Rs.111. The investor should
buy it at the current price of Rs.100.
(ii) Multiple Years Holding Period
The above formula given in (8.1) can be extended to the case
of multiple years holding period. In such a case we need to
calculate the total of present value of all expected future div-
idends and at the end of the holding period expected selling
price. The formula is:
n
Dt Pn
P0 = ∑
+ ……………………………………….(8.2)
t =1 (1 + K ) ( )
t n
3 1 + K e
Since D1 = D2 = D3 = D & so on
D1 D1 D1
P0 = 1 + K + + −−−∞
(1 + K e ) (1 + K e )
2 3
e
D1 /1 + K e D1
P0 = =
1 Ke
1−
1 + Ke
D1 /1 + K e
P0 =
1 − (1 + g ) /1 + K e
D1
Hence Intrinsic value is P0 = ……………………….(8.4)
Ke − g
where P0 = Intrinsic value or fair price or theoretical price
D1 = expected dividend at the end of year 1
g = Constant growth rate in dividend
Ke = Required rate of return on equity
If you recall equation (8.4) is same as the formula of Gordon’s
Model as given below :
e1 (1 − b)
Po = …………………………………………………..(8.4A)
Ke − g
Here E1 = Expected EPS
b = Retention ratio. Hence (1-b) is dividend payout ratio.
Therefore E1(1-b) = D1
277 Valuation of equity share Para 8.2
20
P0 =
0.20
P0 = Rs. 100
The intrinsic value of this share is Rs. 100 when there is no growth
in dividends
(ii) When there is constant growth rate in dividends:
g = 18%
Therefore D1 = D0 (1 + g)
D1 = 20 (1 + 0.18)
D1 = 23.6
D1
\ P0 =
Ke − g
23.6
P0 =
0.20 − 0.18
P0 = Rs. 1180
Here the intrinsic value of the share is Rs. 1180 when there is a con-
stant growth at the rate of 18% in dividends.
Para 8.2 Valuation of equity shares 278
D1 D2 D n D n (1 + g ) D n (1 + g )2 ......a(8.5)
P0 = + − − − + +
1 + K e (1 + K e ) (1 + K e )n (1 + K e )n +1 (1 + K e )n + 2
2
D D2 Dn Dn (1 + g ) 1
P0 = 1
+ + − − + × ......(8.5A)
+ ( ) ( ) − ( )
2 n n
1 K 1 + K 1 + K K g 1 + K
e e e e e
Here D1 = D0 (1 + g1 ) , D2 = D0 (1 + g1 ) & so on
2
Solution: It must be noted that annual dividends are paid after the close
of the accounting year. Therefore dividends just paid are D0 i.e. in the be-
ginning of the current year.
Now D0 = Rs. 2
and g1 = 18% p.a. for first four years
\ D1 = 2 (1 + 0.18) = Rs. 2.36
Similarly D2, D3 and D4 can be calculated.
Dividends for first 4 years are :
Div. PVF 15% N P.V. of Div.
D1 = 2 (1 + 0.18) = 2.36 0.869 2.05
D2 = 2 (1 + 0.18) = 2.78
2
0.756 2.10
D3 = 2 (1 + 0.18) = 3.29
3
0.657 2.16
D4 = 2 (1 + 0.18) = 3.88
4
0.572 2.22
Total = 8.53
Now we are given that g = 6% from 5th year onwards.
So, D5 = 3.88 (1 + 0.06) = Rs. 4.11
Therefore beyond 4th year we can apply constant growth valuation model
to estimate intrinsic value. For this we need D5 i.e the expected dividend
at the end of 5th year. Using D5 we get P4 i.e. the intrinsic value or price at
the end of 4th year. (Please see that in order to get Po we used D1)
D5
P4 =
Ke − g
Once the intrinsic value at the end of 4th year is calculated, we can calcu-
late its present value by discounting this intrinsic value at the appropriate
discount rate for 4 years.
Therefore P.V. of stream of dividend beyond 4th year will be calculated as
under (this is nothing but the present value of the intrinsic value at the
end of 4th Year or in the beginning of 5th Year). P.V of P4 is nothing but the
present value of the dividend stream beyond 4th year.
D5 1
Present value of P4 = K − g ×
(1 + Ke )
4
e
D5
= × PVF15%4
Ke − g
4.11
= × 0.572
0.15 − 0.06
= 26.14
Para 8.2 Valuation of equity shares 280
D7 = 4.87 (1 + 0.12)
= 5.45
D8 = 5.45 (1 + 0.12)
= 6.10
Year Div. PVF15% n P.V. of Div.
1 2.36 0.869 2.05
2 2.78 0.756 2.10
3 3.29 0.657 2.16
4 3.88 0.572 2.22
5 4.35 0.497 2.16
6 4.87 0.432 2.10
7 5.45 0.376 2.05
8 6.10 0.327 1.99
Total 16.83
Here we have three growth rates g1 = 18%, g2 = 12% & g3 = 6%
Further D9 = D8 (1 + g3)
= 6.10 (1 + 0.06)
= 6.47
D9
P.V. of P8 = × PVF15%8
Ke − g
6.47
= × PVf15%8
0.15 − 0.06
6.47
= × 0.327
0.15 − 0.06
= 23.51
Therefore
Po = P.V of Dividends in initial 8 years + P.V. of P8
PO = 16.83 + 23.51
= Rs. 40.34
We can directly calculate Po as under
6.47
Po = 16.83 + × PVf15%8
0.15 − 0.06
= 16.83 + 23.51
= Rs. 40.34
283 Valuation of equity share Para 8.2
in high growth stage. What is the best estimate of company’s share price?
Should the share be purchased?
Solution : Since the company is in growth stage we can assume that the
appropriate P/E ratio is 15.
Therefore
Share price = 15 x 6
= Rs. 90
If the actual market price is lower than Rs. 90, then the share should be
purchased.
Illustration 8.8 : You are given the following information about a company.
The most recent EPS = Rs. 1.89
Annual growth rate in earnings which will remain forever = 6%
Dividend payout ratio = 50%
Required rate of return = 10%
After five years the expected P/E ratio is 12.5. Calculate
(i) The intrinsic value of share at present.
(ii) The expected selling price of the share at the end of 5th year
(iii) The maximum price at which an investor should buy this share.
Solution : (i) Here we calculate the intrinsic value of the share irrespective
of the given holding period using Constant growth model.
Given E0 = 1.89, g = 6%, Ke = 10%, dividend payout ratio = 0.50,
e1 (1 − b)
P0 =
Ke − g
P0 = (1.89)(1.06)(1 − 0.50)
0.10 − 0.06
P0 = 25.04
Therefore the intrinsic value is Rs. 25.04
(ii) The expected P/E ratio at the end of year 5 = 12.5
Expected Selling Price at the end of year 5 is calculated below:
P5 = (P/E) . EPS6
P5 = (12.5) . (1.89) (1 + 0.06)6
P5 = 33.45
287 Valuation of equity share Para 8.2
Therefore the fair price of the share is Rs. 25.005. This would be the max-
imum price at which an investor would buy this share.
Solved Problems
Problem 8.1 : A firm paid a dividend of Rs. 8 per share and the face value of
the share is Rs. 10. The dividend is expected to grow at 5% p.a. the company
belongs to a risk group for which equity capitalization is 12%.
(i) What is the intrinsic value of the share?
(ii) Would the value be different if risk class was 15%?
(B.Com (H) DU 2008)
Solution : (i) Here Do = Rs. 8, g = 5%, Ke = 12%
Therefore D1 = D0 (1 + g)
D1 = 8 (1 + 0.05)
D1 = 8.40
d1
\ P0 =
Ke − g
8.40
=
0.12 − 0.05
P0 = Rs. 120
Valuation of equity shares 290
2.16
=
0.155 − 0.08
P0 = Rs. 28.80
(ii) When g = 3%, D1 = 2(1.03) = 2.06
d1
P0 =
Ke − g
2.06
=
0.155 − 0.03
Po = 16.48
Problem 8.4: The current market price of a share is Rs. 65 and it is expected
to be Rs. 90 after 1 year. Dividend expected after one year from now is
Rs. 2.90. Find out the equity capitalization rate.
(B.Com (H) DU 2014)
Solution : The equity capitalization rate is the discount rate or required
rate of return i.e. Ke.
We know that
d1 + P1
Po =
1 + Ke
2.90 + 90
65 =
1 + Ke
Solving for Ke we get that Ke = 0.429 or 42.9%.
Problem 8.5: A firm is currently paying a dividend of Rs. 2 per share. The
rate of dividend is expected to grow at 5% for first five years and 10%
thereafter. Find the value of the share if the required rate of return of the
investor is 15%.
(B.Com (H) DU 2011)
Solution : It must be noted that annual dividends are paid after the close
of the accounting year. Therefore dividends just paid are D0 i.e. in the
beginning of the current year.
Now D0 = Rs. 2
and g1 = 5% p.a. for first five years
\ D1 = 2 (1 + 0.05) = Rs. 2. 10
Similarly D2, D3 D4 C and D5 can be calculated.
Dividends for first 5 years are :
Valuation of equity shares 292
2.81
= × 0.497
0.15 − 0.10
= 27.88
Finally we calculate the Intrinsic Value of the share at present :
Intrinsic value of the share (Po) = P.V of dividends in 5 years + P.V. of P5
= 7.69 + 27.88
= Rs. 35.57
Problem 8.6: Mr. Nanda wants to invest in a company that has just given a
current dividend of Rs. 3 per share. Dividends are expected to grow at 20%
for 10 years and at 8% thereafter perpetually. Find the value of the equity
share if the required rate of return of Mr. Nanda is 10%.
(B.Com (H) DU 2012)
Solution : It must be noted that annual dividends are paid after the close
of the accounting year. Therefore dividends just paid are D0 i.e. in the
beginning of the current year.
Now D0 = Rs. 3
and g1 = 20% p.a. for 10 years
\ D1 = 3 (1 + 0.20) = Rs. 3.6
Similarly D2, D3 D4 etc. can be calculated.
Dividends for 10 years are :
Div PVF (10% N) PV of Div
3.6 0.909 3.27
4.32 0.826 3.57
293 Solved Problems
the shares are overvalued. You are given that the recently paid dividends
of PTL Ltd. are Rs. 10 per share. The expected growth rate in dividends is
7% p.a. forever. The required rate of return from a similar type of share is
10%. Do you think Mr. Pandey is correct? Should Mr. Tiwari buy this share?
Show all relevant calculations.
Solution : Here D1 = 10 (1 + 0.07) = Rs. 10.70
Now we are given that g =7%
D1
Now P0 =
Ke − g
10.70
=
0.10 − 0.07
= 356.67
Intrinsic value of the share is Rs. 356.67 and the current market price is
Rs. 340. Hence Mr. Pandey is incorrect. The share is actually underpriced
or undervalued. Hence Mr. Tiwari should buy it.
Problem 8.9: Mr. Sunil has required rate of return of 16%. He has made
investments in the shares of ABC Ltd. Using Gordon’s Model find the val-
ue of the share if EPS = Rs. 10, Return on Investment (ROI) = 20% and
retention ratio is (i) 0% (ii) 40% (iii) 60% (B.Com (H) DU 2011)
Solution : Using Gordon’s Model the share’s value can be calculated as
follows
E1 (1 − b )
P0 =
Ke − br
Here E1 = Rs. 10, r = 20% and Ke = 16% b = 0%, 40% and 60%
(i) When b = 0%
10(1 − 0)
Po =
0.16 − 0.20 × 0
= Rs. 62.50
(ii) When b= 40%
10(1 − 0.60)
Po =
0.16 − 0.20 × 0.40
= Rs. 75
(iii) When b = 60%
10(1 − 0.60)
Po =
0.16 − 0.20 × 0.60
= Rs. 100
Valuation of equity shares 296
(ii) If the company does not expand its operations overseas then D1 =
10 (1.05) = 10.50 and g =5%, Ke = 15%
Hence
Po = 10.50/(0.15-0.05)
= Rs. 105
Problem 8.15 : ABC Ltd. is currently paying dividend of Re. 1 per share
and is expected to grow at 7% infinitely. What is the value of the share if
(i) Equity capitalization rate is 15%
(ii) Equity capitalization rate is 16%
(iii) Growth rate is 8% instead of 7%
(iv) Equity capitalization rate is 16% and growth rate is 4%.
(B.Com (H) DU 2009)
Solution :
We use constant growth model of share valuation as given below:
D1
Po =
Ke − g
(i) Po = 1.07/(0.15-0.07) = Rs. 13.38
(ii) Po = 1.07/(0.16-0.07) = Rs. 11.89
(iii) Po = 1.08/(0.15 -0.08) = Rs. 15.43
(iv) Po = 1.04/(0.16-0.04) = Rs. 8.67
Problem 8.16 : From the following 3 shares select the best share for an
investor on the basis of fundamental analysis using (i) Price of share (ii)
Dividend Yield (iii) Capital Gains yield . Assume that the required rate of
return in each case is 20%.
Share X Y Z
Expected Dividend(Rs.) 4 4 4
Growth rate 5% 10% 15%
Solution :
We can compute Price of share using constant growth model
D1
Po =
Ke − g
Valuation of equity shares 300
Share X Y Z
Expected 4 4 4
Dividend(Rs.)
Growth rate 5% 10% 15%
(i) Price (Po) 4/(0.20-0.05)= 26.67 4/(0.20-0.10)= 40 4/(0.20-0.15)= 80
(ii) Div Yield= D1/ 4/26.67 = 15% 4/40 = 10% 4/80 = 5%
Po
(iii) P1 i.e. price 4.2/(0.20-0.05)= 28 4.4/(0.20-0.10)= 4.6/(0.20-0.15)=
after 1 year 44 92
Capital gain (P1-Po) 1.33 4 12
Capital gain yield = 5% 10% 15%
capital gain/Po
Hence the investor should select Share X if the selection criteria is price
or dividend yield. However on the basis of capital gain yield the investor
should select share Z.
Problem 8.17 : From the following information find Book Value per share
Item Co. X Co. Y
Face value per share (Rs.) 10 10
No. of equity shares 500000 800000
Equity share capital (Rs.) 5000000 8000000
Reserves(Rs.) 600000 6500000
(B.Com (H) 2008)
Solution :
Book value per share can be calculated as below:
Item Co. X Co. Y
Face value per share (Rs.) 10 10
No. of equity shares 500000 800000
Equity share capital (Rs.) 5000000 8000000
Reserves (Rs.) 600000 6500000
Total Book value = Eq share cap + Reserves 5600000 14500000
Book value per share = Total B.V/No. of shares 11.20 18.13
Problem 8.18 : PVR Ltd. expects an EPS of Rs. 20 per share for the current
year. The company earns a 15% return on equity and retains 40% of all its
earnings. The required rate of return on equity capital is 12%. Calculate
intrinsic value of the share. Should the share be bought if market price is
Rs. 180?
301 Solved Problems
Summary
1. Valuation of Equity shares is difficult due to the variability of future cash
inflows.
2. We can use Discounted cash flow technique to calculate intrinsic value of a
share.
3. Another popular method to calculate fair price of a share is Earnings Multi-
plier or P/E ratio model.
4. Using Dividends discount model, the intrinsic value of a share is the sum total
of all future expected cash inflows from it. Since the life of equity share is
infinite we get an infinite stream of dividends from the share.
5. Valuation models may assume No growth in dividends, a Constant growth
in dividend or Multiple growth rates.
6. The growth rate of a company’s dividends may be calculated using historical
data or by using the formula (retention ratio X Return on equity).
7. The intrinsic value per share is the capitalized value of all expected dividends.
8. The present value calculations are done using an appropriate discount rate
i.e. the required rate of return on equity or equity capitalization rate. It is also
termed as cost of equity from the view-point of the company.
9. Gordon’s Model and Walter’s Model can also be used to calculate share price.
10. The P/E ratio can be multiplied with expected EPS to find out Fair price or
Intrinsic value as per Earnings multiplier approach.
11. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be used to determine the required
rate of return on equity. This required rate of return can be used to calculate
intrinsic value using DDM.
12. As per CAPM the required rate of return from a share depends on the system-
atic risk of the company measured by beta. The higher the beta the greater
will be the required rate of return.
13. An investor may choose to use various methods to calculate value of an equity
share.
Test Yourself
True False
i. Intrinsic value of a share is equal to its market price.
ii. If there is no growth in dividends then the intrinsic value of a share is the
capitalized value of its dividend perpetuity.
iii. If market price is lower than the intrinsic value then the share is over-priced
in the market.
iv. If intrinsic value is higher than market price, the share should be purchased.
303 Test Yourself
Theory Questions
1. What are the peculiar features of equity shares? How valuation of equity
shares is different from valuation of bonds? [Para 8.1]
2. What problems an investor is expected to face while valuing the equity
shares? [Para 8.1]
3. What do you mean by constant growth in dividend? How does growth factor
affect the value of the share? [Para 8.2b]
4. What do you mean by intrinsic value? How is it determined? [Para 8.2]
5. Explain the different approaches to valuation of an equity share.
6. Examine the relevance of dividend in valuation of equity shares. How would
you value the shares of a company which does not pay dividend?
[Para 8.2b]
7. What is the constant growth model? What are its assumptions? [Para 8.2b]
8. Compare and contrast the two models - Gordon’s model and Walter’s
model. [Para 8.2]
9. What is the importance of Price – Earnings (P/E) ratio? What are its limita-
tions? [Para 8.2.2]
10. Explain the utility of CAPM in valuation of an equity share. [Para 8.2.3]
11. Why is the valuation of equity different from that of debentures or preference
shares? What is the purpose of equity valuation?
(B.Com.(H), GGSIPU, 2016)
12. Super Cement Industries has just paid a dividend for Rs. 4 per share. The
dividend is expected to grow at constant rate of 7% indefinitely. The beta of
the stock is one. The risk-free rate of return is 6% and market risk premium is
Valuation of equity shares 304
9%. Calculate the intrinsic value of the stock. What will be the intrinsic value
of the stock if its beta is 1.3, i.e. the stock is riskier?
(B.Com(H), GGSIPU, 2017)
Practical Problem
1. Mr. Sunil has required rate of return of 18%. He has made investments in the
shares of ABC Ltd. Using Gordon model, find the value of share if:
EPS= Rs. 10
Rate of return on Investment =22%
Retention ratio is:
a. 0%
b. 30%
c. 80%
[Answer : 55.55, 61.40, 250]
2. Mr. Shukla wishes to invest some of his funds in a company. His analysts have
advised him to buy shares of a company which has given a current dividend
of Rs. 12. Dividends are expected to grow at 20% for 10 years and thereafter
at 8% perpetually. Find out the value of the equity shares. The required rate
of return of Mr. Shukla is 10%.
[Answer : Rs. 1746]
3. The following information is available for PQR Ltd. for the year 2010-11:
16. ABC Ltd. is currently paying dividend of Rs. 3 per share and is expected to
grow at 11% infinitely. What is the value of the share if
(i) Equity capitalization rate is 15%
(ii) Equity capitalization rate is 13%
(iii) Growth rate is 8% instead of 11%
(iv) Equity capitalization rate is 12% and growth rate is 6%.
[Answer : (i) 83.25, (ii) 166.5, (iii) 46.29, (iv) 53)]
17. Mr. Misra wants to invest in a company that has just given a current divi-
dend of Rs. 15 per share. The face value per share is Rs. 100. Dividends are
expected to grow at 7% for 5 years, at 5% for next 3 years and at 3% thereafter
perpetually. Find the intrinsic value of the equity share if the required rate
of return of Mr. Misra is 10%. What is intrinsic value of share at the end of
5th year? If the actual market price is Rs. 100 now should Mr. Misra buy this
share?
[Answer : Rs. 272, Buy]
18. A company is expected to provide a dividend of Rs. 6 per share at the year
end. Dividends are expected to grow at 10% for next year and at 8% thereafter.
Find the intrinsic value of the equity share if the required rate of return of
investors is 13%. What is intrinsic value of share at the end of the first year?
What is the maximum price at which an investor should buy this share now.?
[Answer : Rs. 132]
19. Mr. Chaturvedi has just purchased a share having price Rs. 120, which is
expected to provide a dividend of Rs. 8 at the end of the year. Thereafter
the dividends will grow at a rate of 8% p.a. The equity capitalization rate of
a similar risk stock in the market is 16%. Has Mr. Chaturvedi made a right
investment decision? Why?
[Answer : Rs. 100.0, No]
20. A company’s last declared EPS is Rs 18. The growth rate of the company is
12% which is expected to maintain forever. Risk free rate in the market is 4%
and expected market return is 17%. The beta of the company is determined
as 0.85. What is the intrinsic value of company’s share if the company has a
policy of 70% dividend payout? Should this share be bought by a prospective
investor at the current market price of Rs. 195? Why ?
[Answer : Rs. 470.40, Buy]
Project Work
From the website of SEBI (www.sebiindia.com) collect the following details about
Reliance Industries Ltd. for the year 2014-15.
Annual Turnover
Operating Profit
Valuation of equity shares 308
Eq share capital
Capital Reserves
preference share capital if any
Term loans if any
debentures and bonds if any
Tax rate applicable
Div payout ratio
P/E Ratio, Average over past 5 years
Now calculate its expected market price using
(i) P/E ratio model
(ii) Using DDM assuming a constant growth rate of 7% p.a. and Required rate of
return of 11%
9 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS AND
SELECTION
C H A P T E R
learning oUtcoMes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Explain and calculate Portfolio Return
Explain and calculate Portfolio Risk
Construct a portfolio for a given expected return
Determine Minimum Variance Portfolio
Understand the concepts of Diversification and Hedging
Understand portfolio theory of portfolio selection
Derive efficient frontier and optimal portfolio
Analyse Capital Market theory
Calculate beta of a security
Understand and use Capital Asset Pricing Model
Derive Security Market Line
Differentiate between CML and SML
introduction
Investors do not invest in a single asset. Rather they choose to invest in
large number of assets and a variety of assets. It is hard to find an investor
who invests all his savings in just one security (say equity shares of XYZ
Ltd.). Every investor makes investment in a variety of financial assets so as
to meet his investment goals. These investment goals or objectives are the
309
Para 9.1 Portfolio analysis and selection 310
Portfolio Analysis
Identifying possible portfolios from combination of given assets or securities and the risk and return
Portfolio Selection
Portfolio Revision
Portfolio Evaluation
The first step i.e. security analysis is already dealt with in Chapter 4 to Chapter
8, wherein we analysed fixed income securities and equity shares in terms
of their valuation aspects (risk and returns). In this chapter we deal with
portfolios. Hence the discussion will begin with the analysis of portfolios
in terms of portfolio return and portfolio risk. After analysis of portfolios
in terms of return and risk we will discuss portfolio selection Models.
Where,
Ri= return on security X, and
Pi= Probability of ith return.
Para 9.2 Portfolio analysis and selection 314
Now suppose the investor decides to allocate his 50% funds in Security A
and 50% in Security B, then what shall be the expected return of portfolio
consisting of these two securities? In this case, we need to calculate expected
return by using weighted average.
The expected return of portfolio i.e. E (RP) is the weighted average of the
returns of the individual securities comprising that portfolio. It can be
calculated as :
e(r p ) = ∑ i=1 Wi × e(r i ) ...............................................................................(9.1)
n
Where,
E (RP) = Portfolio return
Wi= Proportion of total funds invested in a particular asset or security i.
Ri= Expected return of asset or security i, and
n= Number of assets or securities in the portfolio.
Let us compute the Portfolio return in our example using equation (9.1),
E (RP) = (15 ×0.5) + (9 ×0.5) = 12%
∑ ∑ Wi Wjρ ij σ i σ j .................................................................(9.3)
n n
σp = i =1 j =1
Where,
Wi= Proportion of total funds invested in a particular security i
Wj= Proportion of total funds invested in a particular security j
σi= standard deviation of return of security i,
σj= standard deviation of return of security j,
ρij = coefficient of correlation between returns of security i and j
n= Number of securities in the portfolio.
Para 9.2 Portfolio analysis and selection 316
The above discussion shows that portfolio risk depends on standard devi-
ation of individual securities as well as on covariances or on coefficient of
correlation between the two securities.
The return and risk of a portfolio depends on the following factors :
(i) Proportion of funds to be invested in each security comprising that
portfolio.
(ii) The returns of each security
(iii) The risk (or S.D.) of each security
(iv) The covariance between the returns of these securities. Since cova-
riance is equal to the coefficient of correlation multiplied with the
product of S.D. of each security, we may say that it depends upon
coefficient of correlation.
∑ p (r )
2
Total Risk of a security = S.D. = i i −r
i =1
317 Portfolio Analysis - Markowitz model Para 9.2
Where,
CovAB = Covariance of returns on securities A and B
RA and RB= Returns on Securities A and B respectively
E (RA) and E (RB) = Expected Returns on Securities A and B respectively
Pi= Probability of returns or economic state
n = Number of different economic states
When we are not given probability distribution and only a series of returns
is provided for two securities then we can use equation (9.4A) to calculate
covariance
Cov AB = {∑ (RA − RA ) (RB − RB )} / n ...............................................(9.4A)
Using equation (9.2A) the portfolio risk for our example, in which 50% of
the funds are invested in security A and 50% in security B, is:
Hence
σ p = 3.86%
Hence in case (ii) portfolio return as well as risk is lower while in case (iii)
portfolio return as well as risk is higher.
CONSTRUCTING A PORTFOLIO FOR A GIVEN EXPECTED RETURN:
We can construct a portfolio by using different weights of the securities
comprising it. Hence there are many possible portfolios that can be con-
structed using two securities. As the number of securities increases we can
construct still larger number of portfolios. This is explained in Illustration 9.2.
Illustration 9.2 : Construct a portfolio, using securities A and B, for an
investor who wants an expected return of 13% using the following data.
Expected return From Security A = 15%, Expected return from security
B = 9%. Calculate portfolio risk as well. If sA = 5.3% and sB = 2%. You are
also given that coefficient of correlation is – 0.94.
Solution : We want E (RP) = 13%, let us assume that the weight of security
A is W1 and therefore the weight of Security B (i.e.W2) will be (1-W1).
Hence
13 = (15 ×W1) + (9 ×(1-W1)
Solving for W1 we get W1 = 0.67 (appx)
Hence W2 = 1-0.67= 0.33
Thus the portfolio providing a return of 13% would be the one which invests
67% of the funds in security A and 33% in security B.
Portfolio risk of such a portfolio will be calculated as below:
σ 2p = (0.672 × 5.32 ) + (0.332 × 22 ) + 2 × 0.67 × 0.33 × ( −0.94) × 5.3 × 2 = 8.63
Hence
σ p = 2.94%
σ 2B − Cov AB
Wmin A = ..............................................(9.6)
σ + σ B2 − 2Cov AB
2
A
Or
σ 2B − ρ AB σ A σ B
Wmin A = .................................................(9.6A)
σ 2A + σ B2 − 2ρ AB σ A σ B
σ P = 0.50%
Thus the minimum variance portfolio comprises of 27% of security A and
73% of security B and the minimum portfolio risk is very low i.e. 0.50%. Any
Para 9.2 Portfolio analysis and selection 322
Hence
σ P = 3.80%
(ii) When coefficient of correlation is 0.30
σ 2p = (0.52 × 5.32 ) + (0.52 × 22 ) + 2 × 0.5 × 0.5 × (0.30) × 5.3 × 2 = 10.75
Hence
σ P = 3.20%
(iii) When coefficient of correlation is -0.30
Hence
σ P = 1.58%
Hence Portfolio risk is lower when the coefficient of correlation is lower.
Coefficient of Correlation and Diversification:
“Don’t put all your eggs in the same basket.”
This is the basic idea behind diversification. Every investor would like to
invest his total funds in not just one type of security; rather he will like to
hold a combination of different securities. The reason being that diversifi-
cation helps to reduce the variability of returns and thereby reduces risk
of total investment. Diversification works because returns and prices of all
securities do not move together. In a Diversified portfolio securities are less
than perfectly positively correlated. It implies that when the coefficient of
correlation is less than 1,an investor can have the benefits of diversification.
For diversification the lower the coefficient of correlation the better it is.
Hence a portfolio of securities which has 0.30 as coefficient of correlation
will be more diversified than a portfolio of securities which has coefficient
of correlation as 0.70. In a diversified portfolio we can reduce diversifiable
risk. When the coefficient of correlation is negative, the security is termed
as Hedge Asset, because in that case we can further reduce portfolio risk
by combining a security whose returns are negatively correlated with the
returns of the existing security. Here besides diversification we can also
have the benefit of Hedging.
u When Coefficient of Correlation is +1: In such a case security returns
are perfectly positively correlated. It implies that an increase(decrease)
in one security return is accompanied by exactly same proportionate
increase(decrease) in another security. Hence the returns of the two
securities move in tandem. In other words, there is no difference in
the pattern of returns of these two securities. In such a case we do
not have any Diversification benefit. We only have Risk Averaging.
In such a case equation (9.2A) becomes
σp = W1σ1 + W2σ2
It can be seen that portfolio risk is nothing but the weighted average
of risk of individual securities in this case. This is termed as Naive
Diversification.
u When Coefficient of Correlation is less than 1 but greater than 0:
When coefficient of correlation is less than 1, then although the
Para 9.2 Portfolio analysis and selection 324
returns of the securities move in the same direction but they are not
increasing or decreasing in the same proportion. Hence if we include
these securities in a portfolio we get the benefit of diversification. We
will be able to diversify away the unsystematic risk or diversifiable
risk. The corresponding portfolio risk will be lower.
u When Coefficient of Correlation is zero:
When coefficient of correlation is 0, the security returns are unrelated.
There is no relationship between the returns of the two securities.
This is even better for diversification. When we include securities
which are not related with each other, we get higher degree of di-
versification and hence lower portfolio risk.
u When Coefficient of Correlation is less than 0 but greater than -1
We can also have coefficient of correlation as negative. It implies that
the returns of the two securities are moving in opposite direction.
If there is an increase in the return of security A there is decrease
in the return of Security B. Such a case is even better than all the
previous cases. Here we term these securities as Hedge Asset. If we
construct a portfolio of securities which are negatively correlated, we
have more diversified portfolio and lower portfolio risk than when
the coefficient of correlation is positive.
u When Coefficient of Correlation is -1
Finally, we may also have coefficient of correlation equal to -1. This
is the case of perfectly negative coefficient of correlation. In such a
case it is possible to completely eliminate risk. Hence when coefficient
of correlation is -1, we can have a portfolio which has zero portfolio
risk.
u Zero Risk or Zero variance portfolio
We can have a portfolio having zero risk or zero variance if
(i) coefficient of correlation is –1 and
σ2
(ii) W1 = ..........................................(9.7)
σ1 + σ 2
For example, assume that two securities A and B have expected
returns of 12% and 18% and S.D. of returns as 20% and 30% respective-
ly. The coefficient of correlation between returns of securities A & B
is –1.
Since ρAB = –1, we can have a portfolio having no risk. We have
sA = 20% sB = 30%. Let us assume that the weights of securities A &
B are WA & WB.
325 Portfolio Analysis - Markowitz model Para 9.2
30
wA = = 0.60
20 + 30
WB = 1 – 0.60 = 0.40
Hence the portfolio which invests 60% of total funds in security A and
40% in security B, will have zero risk. This can be verified as under
= 0
Table 9.1 shows the relationship between Coefficient of correlation,
Diversification and Portfolio Risk
Table 9.1
Relationship between Coefficient of correlation,
Diversification and Portfolio Risk
E(RP)
B
r=‐1
C
r=0.33
Z r=1
r=‐1
A
0 σ
C K
B
G’
σp
lio C and all other portfolios lying to the right of portfolio D, have higher
risk than portfolio D but provide same return as provided by portfolio D.
Further the portfolios which lie below point G' say in the part G' C are also
inefficient because they are dominated by the portfolios in the upper part
of G'. We can identify all efficient portfolios in the similar manner. Finally
we get the set of efficient portfolios which lie on the curve G'ADK.
This set of efficient portfolios is popularly known as Efficient Frontier. Thus
Efficient frontier is the graphical presentation of all efficient portfolios out
of the feasible portfolios. It must be noted that all efficient portfolios are
feasible but all feasible portfolios are not efficient.
Step 3: Constructing Indifference curves of the investor
The Efficient frontier which we derive in step 2 shows all efficient portfolios
from which the investor will choose his optimal portfolio. There are many
efficient portfolios but optimal portfolio must be one from among these
portfolios. As you are aware that investors differ in terms of their risk return
preferences. Some investors are more risk averse and some are less risk
averse. The more risk averse investor should select an optimal portfolio
in the lower region of efficient frontier, while a less risk averse investor
should select a portfolio in the upper region of efficient frontier. But efficient
frontier alone cannot help an investor to select the optimal portfolio. The
basic criterion for the selection of optimal portfolio is that the satisfaction
or utility of the investor is maximised. For this we construct Indifference
Curves for the investors. As explained in Chapter 3, an indifference curve
shows all those combinations of risk and return which generate same utility
for an investor. Since all investors are risk averse, the indifference curves
of the investor will be upward sloping as shown in Fig 9.3. It must be noted
that a less risk averse investor will have rather flatter indifference curves
while a more risk averse investor will have steeper indifference curves.
But indifference curves for a particular investor cannot intersect. They
will be parallel. In Fig 9.3 we constructed three indifference curves for the
investor, I1, I2 and I3. The utility on I3 is highest and on I1 is lowest. Hence
portfolio D provides higher utility than portfolios A,B or C. However on
the same indifference curve, the utility derived is same. It implies that the
utility of portfolio B is same as that of C. Portfolio B and C provides higher
utility that portfolio A.
Para 9.3 Portfolio analysis and selection 332
E(RP) I3
I2
I1
D
C
B A
σP
Fig 9.3: Indifference Curves of a Risk Averse Investor
curve and hence the utility derived from P1 and P2 will be lower than that
derived from E. Hence the investor will not select it as the best portfolio. On
the other hand portfolio P3 is desired by the investor as it provides higher
utility, but it is not attainable as it does not lie on Efficient frontier. Hence
the only optimal or Best portfolio is portfolio E. We can now generalise that
the optimal portfolio for an investor under Markowitz model is the point of
tangency between the efficient frontier and the highest possible indifference
curve. This also referred to as the point of equilibrium.
It must be noted here that since the indifference curves for different in-
vestors will be different, depending upon their degree of risk aversion, we
will have as many optimal portfolios of the risky securities as there are
number of investors. A more risk averse investor will have steeper indif-
ference curves and hence his optimal portfolio (i.e. point of tangency) will
be in the lower region of efficient frontier. A less risk averse investor will
Fig 9.4
have : Selecting
more flatthe Optimal Portfolio
indifference curves and hence his optimal portfolio (point
of tangency) will lie on the upper region of the efficient frontier.
In Fig 9.4A, the indifference curves for a more risk averse investor (Say Mr.
X) are I1, I2 and I3 while for a less risk averse investor (say Mr.Y) the indif-
ference curves are I5, I6 and I7. You can notice that the indifference curves
I1, I2 and I3 are steeper than the indifference curves I4, I5 and I6. The optimal
portfolio for Mr. X will be E1 and for Mr. Y it will be E2. Similarly every
investor will have a unique optimal portfolio which is defined by the point
of tangency between his highest possible indifference curve and efficient
frontier. There will be as many optimal portfolios as there are number of
investors in the market. This is the main limitation of Markowitz Model of
portfolio selection.
E(RP) I3
I2
I1
P3 Efficient Frontier
P2
E
P1
σP
E(RP) I4
I5
I6
I1 I
2
I3 E2
E1
σP
the investors to lend or borrow at risk free rate. Capital Market Theory
extends Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory by including risk free lending and
borrowings. It also assumes that all the investors are rational and mean
variance optimizers as assumed by Markowitz Portfolio Theory.
Capital Market theory is based on following assumptions:
i. Investors make decisions solely on the basis of risk and return as-
sessments. This implies that expected return and variance are the
only factors considered in investment decisions. Investors are mean
variance optimizers in Markowitz sense.
ii. Securities are infinitely divisible.
iii. There are no restrictions on short selling.
iv. There are many investors and buy or sell transaction of any investor
will not affect the price of the securities.
v. There are no transaction costs or taxes.
vi. There is a risk free asset in the market besides risky assets. Hence
investors can borrow or lend any amount at the same risk free rate.
vii. Investors have identical or homogeneous expectations about expected
returns, variances of expected returns and covariances of all pairs
of securities. This assumption is important so as to have a unique
efficient frontier. If the expectations of the investors differ in terms
of returns, variances and covariances then there would be a number
of efficient frontiers which would further complicate the problem.
Introduction of Risk Free Asset (or Risk Free Lending and Borrowing)
As per Portfolio Theory the shape of Efficient Frontier is a concave curve.
It can be seen in Fig 9.5 that the original efficient frontier as derived under
Portfolio Theory is curve AMB. When a risk free asset is introduced in the
capital market then the efficient frontier becomes a straight line which
originates from risk free return on Y axis and is tangent to the original
efficient frontier at point M. This line is RfMD. This new efficient frontier
which is a straight line is called Capital Market Line(CML). Thus Capital
Market Line is the line which starts from Rf and is tangent to the original
efficient frontier at point M. The CML shows a linear relationship between
portfolio return and Risk. Every point on CML shows an efficient portfolio
(which is actually a combination of the efficient portfolio M and risk free
asset). The intercept of CML is Rf i.e. risk free rate which shows that if
there is no risk, the return earned must be equal to Rf. It can be observed
that the slope of CML is [(E(RM)- Rf)]/σM which is market risk premium per
unit of market risk. Fig 9.5 shows Capital Market Line.
Para 9.3 Portfolio analysis and selection 336
D
E(Rp) CML
M Efficient frontier
B
A
Rf
0 σp
337 Portfolio Selection Para 9.3
E(RP) I4
Borrowing I5
I6
E2
I1
Lending I2 M
I3
E1
σP
The portfolios that lie on CML are efficient portfolios. All the portfolios that
lie on CML are a combination of the following two.
i. Efficient portfolio M which is the optimal portfolio of risky assets;
and
ii. A risk free asset (either lending or borrowing).
Now the problem of portfolio selection is simplified. Every investor will
now have an optimal portfolio which is on CML. It must be noted that there
are many portfolios on CML but they all comprise of the same optimal
portfolio of risky asset i.e. portfolio M and a risk free asset. Hence every
investor will have the same optimal portfolio of risky assets i.e. portfolio
M and combine it with risk free lending or borrowing to suit his risk re-
turn preferences. Portfolios to the left of point M include risk free lending
and hence are relevant for a more risk averse or conservative investor.
These portfolios are termed as Lending Portfolios or Defensive Portfolios.
Portfolios to the right of point M include risk free borrowing and hence
are relevant for a less risk averse or aggressive investor. These portfolios
are termed as Borrowing Portfolios or Aggressive Portfolios. An investor
which does not want to have risk free asset (i.e. neither risk free lending
nor risk free borrowing) will choose portfolio M. This is shown in Fig 9.5A.
It can be seen that the conservative investor has his optimal portfolio as
E1 while an aggressive investor has his optimal portfolio as E2. Both E1
and E2 have the same optimal portfolio of risky assets i.e. portfolio M. But
conservative investor has risk free lending (or investing in risk free asset as
well) while aggressive investor is borrowing at risk free rate and investing
the entire funds in optimal risky portfolio M.
Para 9.3 Portfolio analysis and selection 338
of 50%, 30% and 20%. It implies that the portfolio of Mr. X will have
Rs. 4000 invested in security A, Rs. 2400 in B and Rs. 1600 in security
C along with Rs. 2000 in risk free asset. Let us assume that Mr. Y is
an aggressive investor and he wants to borrow Rs. 2000 at risk free
rate. Therefore Mr. Y will borrow Rs. 2000 and invest the entire Rs.
12000 (i.e. 10000+2000) in portfolio M i.e. in three securities A, B and
C in the ratio of 50%, 30% and 20%. It implies that the portfolio of
Mr. Y consists of Rs. 6000 invested in security A, Rs. 3600 invested in
security B and Rs. 2400 invested in security C along with a borrowing
of Rs. 2000 at risk free rate.
Illustration 9.7:
The details of three portfolios are provided to an investor :
Portfolio Expected Return Total Risk(S.D)
P 7% 3%
Q 19% 6%
R 20% 10%
It is further given that the risk free rate of interest is 4% and expected
market return is 12%. Risk (S.D.) of the market portfolio is 5%. Find out
whether these portfolios are efficient or not.
Solution:
We know that a portfolio is efficient if it lies on Capital Market Line. Hence
we need to calculate expected return of these portfolios as per CML. The
given expected returns are based on the probability distribution of returns
or some other analysis.
If expected return as per CML = given expected return then the portfolio
lies on CML and hence is efficient. Otherwise the portfolio is inefficient.
Expected return as per CML is calculated using the following equation.
[(e(r M )- rf)]σp
E(Rp) = e(rp) = rf +
σM
to risk free return. It passes through point M which shows market portfolio.
Since β of market portfolio is always 1, point M will be corresponding to 1
on X axis and E(RM) on Y axis.
SML is market risk premium or [(E(RM) – Rf].
The slope ofFig 9.6: Security Market Line
E(Ri) SML
M
E(RM)
Rf
βi
0 1
E(Ri)
A(underpriced) SML
E(RP)
D
E(RM) M
C
E(RC)
B (Overpriced)
RF
0 1 β
(iv) Abnormal return of the stock (if any) if the actual average return on
this stock is 19%.
Solution.
(i) Market Risk Premium = 15-6 = 9%
(ii) Expected Return of the stock = 6 + (15-6)1.3 = 17.7 %
(iii) Risk Premium of the stock = 17.7- 6% = 11.7%
(iv) Abnormal Return = 19-17.7 = 1.3%
It must be noted that abnormal return is the excess of actual return over
expected return as per CAPM.
Position and Slope of SML:
Security Market Line (SML) is an upward sloping straight line. The position
of SML depends upon Rf i.e. risk free rate and the slope of SML depends
upon Market risk premium. This is shown in Fig 9.6B and 9.6C. In Fig 9.6B
the original SML is S1 when risk free rate is Rf1. If there is an increase in
risk free rate to Rf2, then a new SML will be derived as S2. This SML is
parallel to S1 as there is no change in its slope.
In Fig 9.6C, Two SML lines are shown with different slopes. The higher the
market risk premium, the higher will be the slope of SML and the more
steeper will be
Fig 9.6B : thewith
SML SML. It can
different befree
risk seen that
rates the slope of the steeper SML,
S1 is higher. If there is a decline in market risk premium, other things being
equal, then the new SML, S2, will have a smaller slope.
E(Ri) S2
S1
Rf2
Rf1
0 βi
Fig 9.6B : SML with different risk free rates
351 SML & CML Para 9.5
Fig 9.6C : SML with different slopes
E(Ri) S1
S2
Rf
0 βi
Simple Derivation of SML: We can derive SML using the following process.
We know that a straight line equation is
Yi = a +bXi …………………………(1)
In case of SML
Y = E(Ri) and X = βi
Therefore equation (1) becomes
E(Ri) = a + bβi…………………………(2)
We know that beta of a risk free assets is zero therefore if β = 0
Rf = a………………………………..(3)
Now beta of market portfolio is 1
Therefore E(RM) = a + b(1)
E(RM) = a + b
Since a = Rf
b= E(RM)- Rf……………………………(4)
Now we can substitute the values of “a” and “b” from (3) and (4) in the (2)
and we get
E(Ri)= Rf +{E(RM) –Rf } βi
This is SML or CAPM.
Solved Problems
Problem 9.1 : An investor has 78% of his funds invested in the Security A
and 22% invested in the Security B. The risk and expected return data is
given below:
Security Risk (%) Expected return (%) Covariance(% squared)
A 16.32 9.82 0.43
B 32.86 14.97
What is the portfolio’s expected return and risk respectively?
Solution:
The expected return of the portfolio is:
Security Expected Return (Ri) Weight (Wi) WiRi
A 0.0982 0.78 7.66%
B 0.1497 0.22 3.29%
RP=10.95%
The risk of the portfolio is:
σ 2p = W12 σ12 + W22 σ 22 + 2W1W2ρ12 σ1σ 2
Problem 9.4 What is the portfolio’s standard deviation if you invest 25% of
your money into stock A which has a standard deviation of returns of 15%
and the rest into stock B which has a standard deviation of returns of 10%?
The correlation coefficient between the returns of the two stocks is +.75.
Solution:
The standard deviation (risk) of the portfolio is:
σ 2P = W12 σ12 + W22 σ 22 + 2W1W2ρ12 σ1σ 2
= (0.252 × 0.152 ) + (0.752 × 0.102 ) + 2 × 0.25 × 0.75 × 0.75 × 0.15 × 0.10
= 0.0113
σ P = .1061
Thus, the standard deviation of the portfolio is 10.61%.
Problem 9.5 The correlation coefficient between assets D and E is +.50.
Asset D has a standard deviation of 40% and asset E has a standard deviation
of 60%. What is the standard deviation of the portfolio if 40% is invested
in asset D?
Solution: As 40% of funds are invested in asset D, then 60% must be invested
in asset E. The standard deviation (risk) of the portfolio is:
355 Solved problems
Risk:
σ 2p = W12 σ12 + W22 σ 22 + 2W1W2ρ12 σ1σ 2
2 2 2 2
= (0.25 × 0.20 ) + (0.75 × 0.25 ) + 2 × 0.25 × 0.75 × 0.5 × 0.20 × 0.25
= 0.047
σ P = 0.2169 or 21.69%
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Option I Option II
Portfolio return 10.5% 11.5%
Portfolio risk 18.92% 21.69%
Portfolio Return per unit of risk=Return/Risk 0.55 0.53
Suggestion: As the return per unit of risk of Option I is higher, the investor
should go for option I i.e. 75% in A and 25% in B.
Problem 9.10 Calculate expected return and risk of the investments X and
Y. What will be the returns if total investment is allocated in the ratio of 2:3?
Market condition Probability Security A (%) Security B (%)
Dull 0.2 10 6
Stable 0.5 14 15
Growth 0.3 20 11
Also calculate the covariance and correlation coefficient.
Solution:
EXPECTED RETURNS AND RISK OF INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT
covariance aB 3
ρaB = = = 0.24
σaσB 3.6 × 3.46
Portfolio risk :
σ 2P = (0.42 × 3.62 ) + (0.62 × 3.462 ) + 2 × 0.4 × 0.6 × 3 = 7.81
Hence
σ P = 2.8%
Problem 9.11 You are given the following information about two stocks
A and B
Stock A B
E(R)% 15 12
Variance of returns (in Sq %) 13 12
Covariance between the stocks = 3 sq%
Calculate the optimal weights of individual investments such that variance
of portfolio is minimum.
Solution: The optimal weights can be computed as under:
σ 2B − Cov AB
WminA =
σ 2A + σ B2 − 2Cov AB
12 − 3 9
Wmina == = = 0.47
13 + 12 − 2 × 3 19
WminB = 1 − 0.47 = 0.53
The minimum variance portfolio is one which has 47% investment in A and
53% investment in B.
The portfolio variance and standard deviation (risk) at this combination
(47% in A and 53% in B) shall be:
359 Solved problems
σ 2p = (0.472 × 3.62 ) + (0.532 × 3.462 ) + 2 × 0.53 × 0.47 × 0.24 × 3.6 × 3.46 = 7.72
σ p = 2.78%
Problem 9.12 Under what conditions, the risk of portfolio will be eliminated
in Problem 9.11 above?
Solution: The following conditions need to be fulfilled to eliminate the risk
completely:
ρ= –1
1.
σB
2. WA=
σA + σB
σB 3.46
WA = = = 0.49
σ A + σ B 3.6 + 3.46
WB = 1 – 0.49 = 0.51
Verification:
σ 2p = (0.492 × 3.62 ) + (0.512 × 3.462 ) + 2 × 0.49 × 0.51 × ( −1) × 3.6 × 3.46 = 0
σp = 0
Problem 9.13
The details of three portfolios are provided to an investor :
Portfolio Expected Return Total Risk(S.D)
X 11% 13%
Y 15% 16%
Z 25.67% 25%
You are further given that the risk free rate of interest is 5% and expected
market return is 18%. Risk (S.D.) of the market portfolio is 15%. Find out
whether these portfolios are efficient or not.
Solution:
We know that a portfolio is efficient if it lies on Capital Market Line. Hence
we need to calculate expected return of these portfolios as per CML. The
given expected returns are based on the probability distribution of returns
or some other analysis.
If expected return as per CML = given expected return then the portfolio
lies on CML and hence is efficient. Otherwise the portfolio is inefficient.
Expected return as per CML is calculated using the following equation.
(E (RM ) − Rf
E(Rp) = Rf + σp
σM
Portfolio analysis and selection 360
Solution :
Coefficient of correlation × S.d of Security returns
Beta of the security =
S.d of market returns
= 0.70 × 0.23/0.14
= 1.15
Since beta of the security is more than 1, it is an aggressive security. A 10%
change in the return of market portfolio will result in a 11.5% change in the
return of the security in the same direction.
Problem 9.16: Following information is available in respect of a security L
and the market portfolio M.
Probabilities Security L Market Portfolio M
0.2 6 12
0.5 10 15
0.3 16 18
Find out
(i) Mean return of security L and Market portfolio
(ii) Variance of Security L
(iii) Variance of Market returns
(iv) β of security L
Solution :
Pi(L- Pi(M-mean Pi(L-mean L)
Pi L M PiL PiM mean L)2 M)2 (M-mean M)
0.2 6 12 1.2 2.4 5 2.178 3.3
0.5 10 15 5 7.5 0.5 0.045 0.15
0.3 16 18 4.8 5.4 7.5 2.187 4.05
Σ =11 Σ =15.3 Σ =13 Σ =4.41 Σ =7.5
The above table shows that
Mean return of L = Σ piLi = 11%,
Mean market return = ΣpiMi= 15.3%,
Variance of L = Σ (Li-Mean L)2= 13 sq %
Variance of M = Σ (Mi-Mean M)2= 4.4 sq %,
Covariance = Σ pi(Li-Mean L)(Mi-Mean M) = 7.5 sq %
β=Covariance/Market Variance = 7.5/4.4 = 1.7
Hence beta of security L is 1.7
Portfolio analysis and selection 362
Problem 9.17 You are given the following information about two securities
P and Q.
Security P Q
Actual Return% 12 23
β 0.6 1.6
Risk free rate is 7% and Expected Return on market portfolio is 17%. Do
you think that securities A and B are efficiently priced in the market? Do
they lie on SML?
Solution: Here we need to calculate expected return as per CAPM
E(Ri) = Rf + [(E(RM) – Rf] βi
Expected return from P = 7+ (17-7)(0.7) = 14%
Expected return from Q = 7+ (17-7)(1.6) = 23%
Since actual return of Q is same as expected under CAPM, Security Q is
efficiently priced and it will lie on SML.
The actual return of security P is lower than the expected return under
CAPM, hence security P is inefficiently priced. It lies below SML. It is over-
priced in the market.
Problem: 9.18 Following information is available about two securities X
and Y.
Security X Y
Expected Return 15% 20%
Standard Deviation 3% 5%
Coefficient of correlation is 0.80.
Find out the expected return and risk of the following portfolios consisting
of these securities
(i) 50% of each security X and Y
(ii) 30% of X and 70% of Y
(iii) 70% of X and 30% of Y (B.Com (H) DU 2007)
Solution:
(i) When investor invests 50% in X and 50% in Y we have
Portfolio Return = 0.50 × 15 + 0.50 × 20 = 17.5%
Portfolio Risk
σ 2P = (0.52 × 32 ) + (0.52 × 52 ) + 2 × 0.5 × 0.5 × (0.80) × 3 × 5 = 14.50
σ P = 3.808%
363 Solved problems
σ p = 6.1%
Problem: 9.20: Following information is available from Mr. Z in respect
of his portfolio.
Portfolio analysis and selection 364
sp =
W12 σ12 + W2 2 σ 2 2 + 2W1W2 σ1σ 2 r12
sp =
(0.25)2 (24)2 + (0.75)2 (16)2 + 2 (0.25)(0.75)(24)(16) (1)
sp = 18
sp = 18%
Problem 9.21: An investor has a portfolio of five securities whose expected
returns and amount invested are as follows:
Security 1 2 3 4 5
Amount (Rs.) 150000 250000 300000 100000 200000
Expected Return 12% 9% 15% 18% 14%
Find out the % expected return of the portfolio.
(B.Com (H) DU 2009)
365 Solved problems
Security 1 2 3 4 5 Total
Weight (Wi) 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.10 0.20 1.00
Expected Return(Ri) 12% 9% 15% 18% 14%
Wi X Ri 1.8 2.25 4.5 1.8 2.8 13.15
Expected Return of the portfolio = 13.15%
Problem 9.22: In a portfolio of the company Rs. 200000 have been invested
in asset X which has an expected return of 8.5%, Rs. 280000 in asset Y which
has an expected return of 10.2% and Rs. 320000 in asset Z which has an
expected return of 12%. What is the expected return for the portfolio?
(B.Com (H) DU 2010)
Solution : Total amount invested = Rs. 800000
Hence the weight of each security can be calculated as follows:
Amount invested in security i
Weight of security i =
Total amount invested
Asset X Y Z Total
Weight (Wi) 0.25 0.35 0.40 1.00
Expected Return in % (Ri) 8.5 10.2 12
Wi X Ri 2.125 3.57 4.8 10.495
Expected Return of the portfolio = 10.495%
Problem 9.23: The returns on two securities A & B under four possible
states of nature are given below:
State of Nature Prob. (Pi) RA (%) RB(%)
1 0.2 7 4
2 0.4 9 10
3 0.3 14 18
4 0.1 18 28
Find
(i) Expected return on security A and security B.
(ii) Risk (in terms of S.D.) on security A and B.
Portfolio analysis and selection 366
( )
2
Total Risk = S.D. = ΣPi Ri − R
Risk of security X = (12.4)1/2 = 3.52%
Risk of security Y = (49.8)1/2 = 7.06%
(iii) Covariance between returns of A and B can be calculated using the
following formula:
Covariance (A,B) = Σ Pi(RA- r A) (RB- r B)
State Prob.(Pi) RA RB (RA- r A) (RB- r B) Pi(RA- r A)
(RB- r B)
1 0.2 7 4 -4 -9 7.2
2 0.4 9 10 -2 -3 2.4
3 0.3 14 18 3 5 4.5
4 0.1 18 28 7 15 10.5
Σ =24.60
Hence Covariance between A and B’s returns is 24.60 squared per-
centage.
cov (aB)
(iv) Coefficient of Correlation (ρ) =
s.d (a) s.d (B)
367 Solved problems
24.60
=
3.52 × 7.06
= 0.989
Thus the two securities returns are highly correlated.
Problem 9.24: From the following portfolios identify efficient portfolios.
(Apply the rule of Dominance).
Portfolio A B C D E F G H I J
Exp. Ret(%) 20 20 22 10 24 6 10 26 20 10
Total Risk 19 8 11 7 13 13 19 22 24 24
Solution : As per the rule of dominance, a portfolio dominates another
portfolio if it provides (i) higher return at same risk or (ii) lower risk at
same return. Such a dominating portfolio is efficient portfolio to be used
in the construction of efficient frontier.
Hence efficient portfolios in the above Table are –B, C, D, E and H. Portfolio
B dominates A and I, Portfolio D dominates G and J. Portfolio E dominates
portfolio F.
Problem 9.25: If the risk free return is 10%, expected return on BSE Sensex
is 18% and risk measurement by standard deviation of BSE index is 5%, how
would you construct an efficient portfolio to produce an expected return
of 16% and what would be its risk.
(B.Com (H) DU 2012)
Solution : We have two things here. One is the market portfolio having
return of 18% and risk of 5%. The other is a risk free asset having return
as 10% and No risk.
Now we can construct an efficient portfolio combining Market portfolio
and risk free asset so that its return is 16%.
Let us assume that the weight of Market portfolio is W. So the weight of
risk free asset will be (1-W).
Portfolio Return = 16%
Hence 16 = W(18) + (1-W)10
W = 0.75
Hence the portfolio that invests 75% in Market Index i.e. Sensex and 25%
in risk free asset will generate an expected return of 16%.
Portfolio risk = WσM = 0.75 (5) = 3.75%
It must be noted that the risk (σ) of risk free asset is 0.
Portfolio analysis and selection 368
The above Table shows that only portfolio P is efficient portfolio because
in case of other portfolios the expected return as per CML does not match
with the given returns.
In case of portfolio Q and R the expected return as per CML is higher or
lower than the given return and hence these portfolios are overpriced or
underpriced in the market. Only portfolio P is efficiently or correctly priced
in the market.
Problem 9.28 : The risk free rate of interest is 4% and return on market
portfolio is 10%. The risk of market portfolio is 3%. An investor has con-
structed a portfolio having risk of 2% and correlation with market portfolio
as 0.70. Find out the expected return to the investor.
Solution : Here we can find out expected return using two approaches
(i) Using CML, we can find out expected return of the portfolio as under:
[(e(r m )- rf)]σ p
E(Rp) = r f +
σm
Hence E(Rp) = 4 + (10-4) 2/3 = 8%
(ii) Using CAPM we can find out portfolio return by using beta factor.
Beta is calculated as below
σp
βp =
× Correl(p, m)
σm
bp = 0.7 X 2/3 = 0.467
Now expected return of the portfolio is
E(Rp) = Rf + [(E(RM)- Rf)] bp
E(Rp) = 4+ (10-4)(0.467) = 6.82%
Problem 9.29 : The risk free rate of interest is 6% and return on market
portfolio is 16%. The risk of market portfolio is 5%. An investor has con-
structed a portfolio having risk of 10%. Find out the expected return to the
investor as per CML.
Solution :
Using CML, we can find out expected return of the portfolio as under:
[(e(r m )- rf)]σ p
E(Rp) = r f +
σm
(i) When security is correctly priced its actual return must be same as
its expected return as per CAPM.
Hence
20 = 6+ (18-6)(b)
b = 1.167
(ii) When security is overpriced it means that its expected return as per
CAPM is higher than the actual return. Hence b of the security must
be higher than 1.167 as calculated above.
(iii) When security is underpriced it means that its expected return as
per CAPM is lower than the actual return. Hence b of the security
must be lower than 1.167 as calculated above.
Problem 9.33: Find out the expected return of the following securities
if prevailing interest rate on Govt. Securities is 7% and rate of return on
market index is 10%.
Security I II III IV V
Beta factor 1.00 1.25 1.70 1.50 1.60
(B.Com (H) DU 2007)
Solution : Using CAPM
E(Ri) = Rf + [(E(RM)- Rf)] bi
Security I II III IV V
Beta factor 1.00 1.25 1.70 1.50 1.60
E(Ri) = Rf + 7+(10-7)1 7+(10-7)1.25 7+(10-7)1.70 7+(10-7)1.50 7+(10-7)1.60
[(E(RM)- Rf)] bi
Expected return 10% 10.75% 12.10% 11.50% 11.80%
Problem 9.34: Returns on shares of K Ltd and S Ltd for two years are
given below:
Return of K Ltd Return of S Ltd
Year 1 15 10
Year 2 17 14
Calculate
(i) Expected return of each stock
(ii) Risk (standard deviation) of each stock
(iii) Covariance between K and S
(iv) Coefficient of correlation between K and S.
Portfolio analysis and selection 372
σ 2P = (0.32 × 12 ) + (0.72 × 22 ) + 2 × 0.3 × 0.7 × 1 × 2 × ( −1) = 1.21
σ P = 1.1%
(vi) Portfolio return when weights are in 2:1 i.e. 2/3 and 1/3
Rp = 2/3 (16) + 1/3 (12) = 14.67%
[(e(r m )- r f )]
The slope of CML = = (15-5)/20 = 0.50
σm
Now using CML equation the required rate of return (or expected return)
from three mutual funds are given in the Table
Mutual Fund Total Risk(S.D) Required return as per CML Actual Return
P 14% = 5 + (0.50)(14) = 12% 12.8%
Q 17% = 5 + (0.50)(17) = 13.5% 13.5%
R 15% = 5 + (0.50)(15) = 12.5% 12.5%
Mutual funds Q and R are efficient as their required return is same as their
actual return. Mutual fund P is underpriced as it provides higher actual
return than the required return.
Problem 9.36 : Two securities A and B have variance of 13 and 12 and
expected returns of 15% and 12% respectively. The covariance between
the returns is 3. Find out the return and risk of the following portfolios
comprising A and B in the given proportion.
Case A B
(i) 0.2 0.8
(ii) 0.7 0.3
(iii) 0.5 0.5
(B.Com (H) DU 2008)
Solution: Calculation of Expected return of portfolio when return of A =
15% and return of B = 12%
Portfolio analysis and selection 374
Condition Probability
Pi pi[Rm-E(Rm)2]
Good 0.3 79.707
Normal 0.2 30.258
Worse 0.5 108.045
Σ = 218.01
Hence Market variance is 218.01 sq %
Calculation of Covariance of Alpha and Omega with Market
1 2 3
Condition Pi Ra-E(Ra) Ro-E(Ro) Rm-E(Rm) P [(1) x(3)] P[(2)x (3)]
Good 0.3 16.30 17.70 16.30 79.71 86.55
Normal 0.2 7.30 11.70 12.30 17.96 28.78
Worse 0.5 -12.70 -15.30 -14.70 93.35 112.46
Σ= 191.02 Σ= 227.79
Covariance between Alpha and Market = 191.02
Covariance between Omega and Market = 227.79
β of Alpha stock = Covariance/Market variance = 191.02/218.01 = 0.87
Portfolio analysis and selection 376
Here E(RM) = 15% and Rf = 7% . Hence the following table shows Expected
return as per SML
Security Estimated Beta Expected Return as per SML Remarks
Return(%)
A 30 2 7+(15-7)2 = 23 Underpriced
B 25 1.5 7+(15-7)(1.5) = 19 Underpriced
C 20 1.0 7+(15-7)(1) = 15 Underpriced
D 11.5 0.8 7+(15-7)(0.8) = 13.4 Overpriced
E 10 0.5 7+(15-7)(0.5) = 11 Overpriced
A security is underpriced if its estimated return is higher than the expected
return as per SML. If estimated return is lower than the expected return
as per SML then it is overpriced.
Hence securities A, B and C are underpriced.
Problem 9.40 An investor is holding two stocks A and B, in his portfolio.
The ex-ante probability distribution of two stocks and market index is
given below.
Situation Probability Return of A(%) Return of B(%) Return of Market(%)
Recession 0.2 10 6 10
Average 0.4 12 15 16
Above 0.3 21 27 22
average
Boom 0.1 27 30 29
Calculate
(i) Covariance between security A and B
(ii) Beta of security A, B and Market
(B.Com (H) DU 2014)
Solution:
Calculation of Co variance between A and B as well as between A and
Market and Between B and Market
Pi RA RB RM PiRA PiRB PiRM Pi(RA-E(RA) Pi(R A-E(R A) Pi(R B-E(R B) Pi(RM-
(RB-E(RB) (RM-E(RM) (RM-E(RM) E(RM)2
0.2 10 6 10 2 1.2 2 14.268 9.164 19.434 12.482
0.4 12 15 16 4.8 6 6.4 5.016 2.888 2.508 1.444
0.3 21 27 22 6.3 8.1 6.6 13.572 6.396 10.701 5.043
0.1 27 30 29 2.7 3 2.9 13.104 12.432 12.987 12.321
Total
= 15.8 18.3 17.9 45.96 30.88 45.63 31.29
379 Solved problems
σ 2 −r σ σ
WF = 2 G 2 FG F G
σ F + σG − 2rFG σ F σG
(35)2 − (−0.30)(20)(35)
WF = 2
(20) + (35)2 − 2 (−0.30)(20)(35)
= 0.70
Since WF = 0.70, WG = 1–0.70 = 0.30.
Hence minimum variance portfolio is one which has 70% of stock F
and 30% of stock G. The return of such a portfolio is
E(Rp) = 10(0.70) + 25(0.3)
= 14.50%
Summary
u A Portfolio is a collection of assets or securities which are so collected together
to reduce the risk.
u Portfolio return is the weighted average of the returns on individual securities.
u Portfolio risk is not the weighted average of the risks of individual securities.
Covariance and correlation also plays an important role.
u Diversification refers to holding a combination of different securities in order
to reduce risk of portfolio.
u When securities are perfectly positively correlated, there is no diversification
benefit. In that case there is just risk averaging.
u When securities are perfectly negatively correlated it is possible to completely
eliminate portfolio risk .
u Markowitz model of portfolio analysis is quite demanding in terms of data
requirement.
u The portfolio selection problem is studied under Markowitz Portfolio Theory
and Capital Market Theory.
u As per Portfolio Theory, the optimal portfolio for an investor is the point of
tangency between the efficient frontier and highest possible indifference
curve.
u Efficient frontier shows all efficient portfolios out of the feasible region of
portfolios.
u An efficient portfolio is one which provides maximum return for a given risk
or which has lowest risk for a given return.
u When a risk free asset is introduced in the market then the efficient frontier
becomes a straight line known as Capital Market Line.
381 Test Yourself
u As per Capital Market Theory every investor invests in the same optimal
portfolio of risky assets i.e. Market Portfolio and uses risk free lending or
borrowing to suit his risk return preferences.
u Capital Asset pricing model(CAPM) is a model for predicting expected return
of an asset.
u CAPM is a linear and positive relationship between expected return and sys-
tematic risk measure by β factor.
u The graphical presentation of CAPM is known as Security Market Line (SML).
Test Yourself
True/False
i. If two assets have the same risk, a risk averse investor will always choose the
asset with higher expected return.
ii. Covariance indicates variability in a particular stock’s returns.
iii. The portfolio variance is the weighted average of the variances of all the
assets held in the portfolio.
iv. When everything is held constant, lower correlation results in lower portfolio
variance.
v. The sum of investment weights must be equal to zero.
vi. Covariance plays a major role in determining the portfolio’s risk.
vii. Adding more securities to your portfolio will always make it more diversified.
viii. Diversification eliminates the risk completely.
ix. Correlation coefficient ranges between -1 to +1.
x. Minimum variance portfolio is also known as optimal portfolio.
xi. Portfolio risk is minimum when investments are done in equal proportions.
xii. Security market line is based on total risk.
xiii. Capital Market Line also shows individual securities besides efficient portfolios.
xiv. If a security lies below SML, it is underpriced.
xv. If a portfolio is below CML it is inefficient.
[Answers: (i) T (ii) F (iii) F (iv) T (v) F (vi) T (vii) F (viii) F (ix) T
(x) F (xi) F (xii) F (xiii) F (xiv) F (xv) T]
Theory Questions
1. What is a portfolio? How is the portfolio return and risk calculated for a
two-security portfolio? [Paras 9.1, 9.2]
2. What do you mean by diversification? Does it reduce the risk of an invest-
ment? Explain with an example. [Para 9.2]
Portfolio analysis and selection 382
11. “All efficient portfolios are feasible but all feasible portfolios are not efficient”.
Do you agree? Explain in the context of Harry Markowitz Model.
[B.Com (H) DU 2011] [Para 9.3]
12. Explain the salient features of Security Market Line. [Para 9.4]
13. Is it possible to reduce portfolio risk by including a more risky security in the
portfolio? How? [Para 9.2]
Practical Problems
1. Suppose an investor has two assets whose standard deviation of returns
are 30% and 40%. The assets are perfectly negatively correlated. What asset
weights will eliminate all portfolio risk? [Answer- 57% and 43%]
383 Test Yourself
2. Stock A’s standard deviation of returns is 50% and Stock B’s standard devia-
tion of returns is 30%. Stock A and Stock B’s returns are perfectly positively
correlated. According to portfolio theory, how much should be invested in
each stock to minimize the portfolio’s standard deviation? [Answer-100% in
Stock B]
3. An investor puts 60% of his money into a risky asset offering a 10% return
with a standard deviation of returns of 8% and the balance in a risk- free
asset offering 5%. What is the expected return and standard deviation of this
portfolio? [Answer-8.0% and 4.8%]
4. Securities X and Y have standard deviations of 3% and 9%. Nishant is having
a surplus of Rs.20 Lakhs for investment in these two securities. How much
should he invest in each of these securities to minimize risk, if the correlation
co-efficient for X and Y is:
(a) -1
(b) -0.30
(c) 0
[Answer-
(a) 75% and 25%
(b) 84% and 16%
(c) 90% and 10%
5. A Ltd., and B Ltd., has the following risk and return estimates:
Return on A=20%
Return on B=22%
Standard deviation of A=18%
Standard deviation of A =15%
Correlation coefficient = –0.50
Calculate the proportion of investment in A Ltd., and B Ltd., to minimize the
risk of Portfolio. [Answer = – 56% and 44%]
6. Calculate expected return and standard deviation of the following two
investments “A” and “B” exclusively and also if total investment is divided one
half in each. The economic predictions are:
7. The returns on two securities under four possible states of nature are given
below:
Portfolio A B C D E F G H I J
Exp. Ret(%) 20 20 21 10 24 6 10 21 20 10
Total Risk 5 8 11 7 13 13 19 12 24 24
[Ans : A, C, D, E]
10. If the risk free return is 7%, expected return on BSE Sensex is 16% and risk
measurement by standard deviation of BSE index is 8%, how would you
construct an efficient portfolio to produce an expected return of 12% and
what would be its risk? [Ans : 4.44%]
385 Test Yourself
11. The risk free rate of interest is 8% and return on market portfolio is 18%. The
risk of market portfolio is 5%. An investor has constructed a portfolio having
risk of 10% and correlation with market portfolio as 0.50. Find out the expected
return to the investor as per CML. [Ans : 28%]
12. The risk free rate is 5%, market return is 14% and beta of a security, H, is 1.5.
Find out the expected return from the security. If the expected return of a
security G, is 13%, what must be its beta ? [Ans : 18.5% 0.89]
13. The risk free rate is 5.5%, return on a broad market index is 17.25% and beta
of a security, L, is 1.15. Find out the expected return from the security. If
the actual return provide by the security L is 20%, what does it mean? If the
expected return of a security S, is 21.5%, what must be its beta if it is correctly
priced in the market ? [Ans : 19.01% underpriced, 1.36]
14. The risk free rate is 6%, return on a broad market index is 19%. The actual
return provided by the security is 20%. What must be its beta if the security
is
i. Correctly priced in the market
ii. Overpriced in the market
iii. Underpriced in the market. [Ans : (i) 1.08 (ii) >1.08 (iii) <1.08]
15. Find out the expected return of the following securities if prevailing interest
rate on Govt. Securities is 7% and rate of return on market index is 10%.
Security I II III IV V
Beta factor 1.10 1.35 1.74 1.58 1.62
[Ans : 10.3%, 11.05%, 12.22%, 11.74%, 11.86%]
16. The following data are available to you as a portfolio manager
Project Work
Select any two stocks from S&P BSE SENSEX (say SBI and Wockhardt) and
collect their closing adjusted prices on weekly basis for the period Jan 2015 to
Dec 2015 form the website of BSE i.e. www.bseindia.com. The stocks should be
from unrelated sectors. Now convert these prices into returns and make series of
stock returns for each stock. Calculate
1. Mean return on each stock
2. Standard deviation of returns of each stock
3. Covariance between the returns of stock 1 and stock 2 and interpret it.
4. Construct an equally weighted portfolio of these stocks (i.e. weights are 0.5
each) and calculate this portfolio’s return and risk.
5. Construct a portfolio for Mr. Mishra who wants an expected return of 12%.
What is the portfolio risk in this case?
6. Construct a portfolio for Mr. Tripathi who wants to have minimum possible
risk by combining the two stocks.
7. Is it possible to reduce portfolio risk to zero by combining these two stocks?
Why?
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
10 EVALUATION AND MUTUAL
C H A P T E R FUNDS
learninG outcomeS
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Understand the need for portfolio performance evaluation
Apply various risk adjusted measures/methods for performance
evaluation such as Sharpe ratio, Treynor’s Ratio and Jensen’s
Alpha
Explain the concept, advantages and limitations of Mutual funds
Describe Evolution of mutual funds in India
Explain various types of mutual fund schemes
Elaborate latest developments in Mutual funds in India
Evaluate the performance of mutual funds
The previous chapter dealt with portfolio analysis and selection. The selection
of the optimal portfolio is based on Markowitz portfolio theory and Capital
market theory leading to the development of Capital Asset Pricing Model.
There are two types of portfolio management. One, is Passive Management
in which the investor invests in the broad market index and does not per-
form any security analysis or select individual securities. Hence analysis of
securities is not required if one is a passive investor. A passive investor sim-
ply invests in the index and holds it in order to earn commensurate return.
Second is Active Management, in which the investor is actively engaged in
the analysis and selection of securities so as to earn superior returns. The idea
here is to invest in undervalued stocks or assets so as to reap higher gains.
We have seen in the previous chapter that in an efficient market, Passive
387
Para 10.1 Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 388
Rp-Rf
SP = .................................................................................(10.1A)
σp
Thus Sharpe ratio converts risk premium into risk premium per unit
of risk. The higher the Sharpe’s ratio, the better it is.
Ranking of portfolios:
When we have to rank the portfolios we give first rank to the one
having highest Sharpe ratio and the last rank to the one having
lowest Sharpe ratio. Hence ranking of portfolios can be done in the
descending order of Sharpe Ratio.
Whether outperformed or Underperformed:
In order to find out whether the portfolio has outperformed or
underperformed we need some benchmark portfolio say the market
portfolio. If the Sharpe ratio of the given portfolio is higher than the
Sharpe ratio of Market portfolio (or any other benchmark portfolio)
Para 10.2 Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 390
then, we say that the given portfolio has outperformed the market
or is an outperformer. On the other hand if the Sharpe ratio of the
given portfolio is lower than the Sharpe ratio of Market portfolio (or
any other benchmark portfolio) then, we say that the given portfolio
has underperformed the market or is an underperformer.
2. Treynor’s measure (or Treynor’s ratio)
Another risk adjusted measure is Treynor’s ratio. Treynor’s measure
of portfolio performance, like Sharpe, measures portfolio’s risk pre-
mium return per unit of risk, but it uses systematic risk as indicated
by beta factor. Treynor’s ratio (Tp) is calculated as under:
Rp-Rf
Tp = ..............................................................(10.2A)
βp
It must be noted that Sharpe ratio uses total risk while Treynor’s
ratio uses Systematic risk in the denominator. Total risk comprises
of systematic as well as unsystematic risk. If there is no unsystematic
risk, especially in case of well and perfectly diversified portfolio, then
the total risk and systematic risk will be same and hence Sharpe ratio
and Treynor ratio will provide similar results.
However, it is quite possible that the total risk of a portfolio is not
equal to its systematic risk only. It may also comprise of unsystem-
atic risk. Especially in case of not so diversified portfolios we find
that there is presence of significant amount of unsystematic risk. In
such case Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio may provide contradictory
results. This is explained in Illustration 10.1.
3. Jensen’s measure (or Jensen’s alpha)
Michael Jensen’s measure, denoted by α, is also a risk adjusted
measure. It is the actual return on the portfolio over and above the
CAPM predicted return. It is measured as follows:
aj = Actual return-Expected Return under CAPM.........................(10.3)
It must be noted that the expected return from CAPM is calculated
as under
E(Rp) = Rf + [RM-Rf]βp.............................................................(10.3A)
It can be observed that Jensen’s alpha measures “abnormal return”
of a portfolio. The higher the alpha, the better it is. The value of
alpha may be positive, zero or negative. When the portfolio provides
a return higher than the expected return as per CAPM, the value of
Jensen’s alpha is positive. When the portfolio provides a return ex-
actly same as expected under CAPM, the value of Jensen’s alpha is
zero. On the other hand, when the portfolio provides a return lower
than the expected return as per CAPM, the value of Jensen’s alpha
will be negative.
It must be noted that the Jensen’s alpha of the market portfolio is
always zero. This is because the beta factor of the market portfolio is
always 1. Therefore if we put beta of the portfolio as 1 in the equation
of CAPM above we get the market return only. Hence actual mar-
ket return is always same as expected market return and therefore
Jensen’s alpha of the market portfolio is always zero.
Ranking of portfolios:
When we have to rank the portfolios we give first rank to the one
having highest Jensen’s alpha and the last rank to the one having
Para 10.2 Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 392
Investors pool
their money
Income and
dividends are
generated
Open-ended
schemes
close-ended
Structure
schemes
interval
schemes
income
schemes
growth
Investments schemes
Mutual funds
objectives
balanced
schemes
money market
schemes
tax saving
schemes
sector
others schemes
index
schemes
funds in India are domestic funds. Off shore mutual funds are open
for subscription by foreign investors only. These funds channelize
foreign investment in mutual funds in a country. At present a number
of off shore funds have been launched by mutual funds in India.
4. Growth funds, Income funds and Balanced funds:
A growth fund scheme is one which offers capital appreciation and
dividend opportunity to the investor. Such schemes invest majority
of their funds in equities. The main idea behind a growth scheme is to
provide capital gains rather than regular income to the unit holders.
Capital appreciation is in the form of increased NAVs over long period.
This is ideal for investors who are in their prime earning stage and
are looking for long term investment. A growth fund invests about
90% or more in equity shares. As growth schemes invest primarily
in equity shares they are exposed to high risk.
On the other hand, income funds promise a regular income to its
investors. Majority of funds are channelized towards fixed income
securities such as debentures, government securities, and other debt
instruments. Although capital appreciation is low as compared to
the growth funds, this is a relatively low risk-low return investment
avenue. This scheme is ideal for investors seeking capital stability
and regular income. Income funds invest about 90% of their total
funds into fixed income securities so as to provide regular income
to the unit holders.
A balanced fund is a combination of growth fund and income fund. A
balanced fund invests about 50:50 in equity shares and bonds. They
invest in shares for growth and invest in bonds for regular income.
These are ideal for investors who are looking for a regular income
source and moderate growth over a period of time.
5. Equity Fund schemes:
They are same as Growth schemes. Under equity fund schemes,
the funds are invested primarily in equity shares. Hence the return
from these schemes is primarily in the form of change in prices or
NAVs rather than regular dividend. Equity fund schemes are growth
schemes. There are a variety of equity schemes available which
include- Sector specific schemes, Equity Linked Savings Schemes,
Diversified equity schemes etc.
6. Debt fund schemes :
These schemes are similar to income funds. In case of debt funds
the collected funds are invested in debt securities such as bonds,
Para 10.5 Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 404
first introduced in USA in 1993. The first ETF in India, “Nifty BeEs
(Nifty Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme)” based on S&P CNX
Nifty, was launched in January 2002 by Benchmark Mutual Fund.
These funds rely on an arbitrage mechanism to keep the prices at
which they trade in line with the NAV of their underlying portfolios.
Thus, potential arbitrageurs need to have full and timely knowledge
of a fund’s holdings. The structure of ETFs is explained in the Fig
10.3:
Fig 10.3: Structure of Exchange Traded Funds
(Source : www.nse-india.com)
Advantages of ETFs
ETFs provide exposure to an index or a basket of securities that
trade on the exchange like a single stock. They offer a number of
advantages over traditional open-ended index funds as follows:
u While redemptions of Index fund units takes place at a fixed
NAV price (usually end of day), ETFs offer the convenience of
intra-day purchase and sale on the Exchange, to take advantage
407 Latest developments regarding mutual funds Para 10.6
Types of STPs
Fixed STP - A fixed amount is regularly transferred from the source
1.
fund to the target fund.
Capital appreciation STP, where investors take the profit part out of
2.
one fund and invest in the other. Only profits in excess of a predefined
amount are transferred to the target fund.
Most investors prefer fixed STP which is easier and more convenient.
a. Sharpe ratio
b. Treynor’s ratio
c. Jensen’s alpha
Details about these measures have already been provided in sections 10.1
& 10.2
Illustration 10.4 Find out NAV per unit from the following information:
Size of the scheme Rs. 10,00,000
Face value of shares Rs. 10
Number of outstanding share Rs. 1,00,000
Market value of fund’s investment Rs. 18,00,000
Bills receivable Rs. 20,000
Liabilities Rs. 10,000
Solution:
Total Assets=Market Value of Investment + Bills Receivable=Rs. 18,00,000
+ Rs. 20,000 = Rs. 18,20,000 Liabilities= 10,000
total assets-liabilities rs. 18,20,000-rs. 10,000
NAV per unit = = =
no. of shares 1,00,000
= Rs. 18.1 per share
Illustration 10.5: Information about three mutual fund schemes X, Y and
Z are available.
Mutual Fund Actual Return(%) beta S.D.(%)
X 14 0.70 21
Y 26 1.20 30
Z 24 1.15 29
The return on market index is 22% and standard deviation of returns on
market index is 25%. The risk free rate is 5%.
i. Calculate Sharpe ratio for all the funds and market index and rank
them.
ii. Calculate Treynor’s ratio for all the funds and market index rank
them.
iii. Calculate Jenesen’s alpha for all the funds and market index rank
them.
413 Evaluating performance of mutual funds Para 10.7
Solution :
i. Sharpe ratio
Sp = [Rp-Rf]/σp
Mutual Rp σp Sharpe ratio(Sp) Rank Remarks
Fund (including
market index)
X 14 21 [14-5]/21= 0.43 4 Underperformed
the market
Y 26 30 [26-5]/30 = 0.70 1 Outperformed
the market
Z 24 29 [24-5]/29= 0.65 3 Underperformed
the market
Market 22 25 [22-5]/25 = 0.68 2
index
ii. Treynor’s ratio
Tp= [Rp-Rf]/βp
Mutual Actual beta Treynor ratio(Tp) Rank Remarks
Fund Return(%)
X 14 0.70 [14-5]/0.7= 12.85 4 Underperformed
the market
Y 26 1.20 [26-5]/1.2 = 17.5 1 Outperformed the
market
Z 24 1.15 [24-5]/1.15= 16.52 3 Underperformed
the market
Market 22 1.0* [22-5]/1 = 17 2
index
*beta factor of market portfolio is always one.
iii. Jensen’s alpha is calculated as follows:
α = Actual Return – Expected return as per CAPM
Expected return as per CAPM is calculated as follows:
E(Rp) = Rf + [Rm-Rf]βp
Solved problems
Problem 10.1 A Mutual Fund made an issue of 10,00,000 units of Rs. 10 each
on 01.01.2014. No entry load was charged. It made the following investments:
50,000 Equity Shares of Rs. 100 each @ 160 Rs. 80,00,000
7% Government Securities Rs. 8,00,000
9% Debentures (Unlisted) Rs. 5,00,000
10% Debentures (Listed) Rs. 5,00,000
Total Rs. 98,00,000
During the year, dividends of Rs. 12,00,000 were received on equity shares.
Interest on all types of debt securities was received as and when due. At
the end of the year equity shares and 10% debentures are quoted at 175%
and 90% respectively. Other investments are quoted at par. Find out the Net
Asset Value (NAV) per unit given that the operating expenses during the
year amounted to Rs. 5,00,000. Also find out the NAV, if the Mutual Fund
had distributed a dividend of Re. 0.80 per unit during the year to the unit
holders. (B.Com (H) DU 2012)
Solution:
I. Cash balance at the end of the period
Opening balance (Rs.100 lakhs-98 lakhs) Rs. 2,00,000
Dividends received 12,00,000
Interest income:
u 7% Government Securities 56,000
u 9% Debentures (Unlisted) 45,000
415 Solved problems
Problem 10.3 A mutual fund had a Net Asset Value (NAV) of Rs. 65 at the
beginning of the year. During the year a sum of Rs. 8 was distributed as
dividend besides Rs. 5 as capital gains distribution. At the end of the year
NAV was Rs. 73. Calculate total return for the year.
Solution:
div1 + CG1 + NAv1 -NAv0 8 + 5 + (73 − 65)
return = = = 32.31%
NAv0 65
Problem 10.4 A mutual fund had a Net Asset Value (NAV) of Rs. 73 at the
beginning of the year. At the end of the year it gives a dividend of Rs. 5
and no capital gains distribution and NAV at the end of the year is Rs. 68.
What is the return from the fund ?
Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 416
Solution:
div1 + cG1 + nav1 -nav0 5 + 0 + (68 − 73)
return = = = 0%
nav0 73
Problem 10.5 Ram invested in a Mutual Fund when the Net Asset Value
was Rs. 12.65. Thirty days later the Asset Value per unit of the fund was
Rs. 12.25. In the meantime, Ram had received a cash dividend of Re. 0.50
and a Capital Gain distribution of Re. 0.30. Compute the monthly return.
Solution:
div1 + cG1 + nav1 -nav0 0.50 + 0.30 + (12.25 − 12.65)
return = = = 3.16%
nav0 12.65
Problem 10.6 A mutual fund has an NAV of Rs. 26 in the beginning of the
period and Rs. 30 at the end of the same period. During the period, it in-
curred expenses at the rate of Rs. 0.80 per unit. Find out the expense ratio.
Solution:
expenses 0.80 0.8
expense ratio = × 100 = × 100 = × 100
average assets under management (26 + 30) / 2 28
=2.86%
Problem 10.7 A mutual fund has an NAV of Rs. 50 in the beginning of
the period and Rs. 70 at the end of the same period. During the period, it
incurred expenses at the rate of Rs. 5 per unit. Find out the expense ratio.
(B.Com(H) DU 2013)
Solution:
expenses
expense ratio = × 100
average assets under management
5
= × 100 = 8.33%
(50 + 70) / 2
Problem 10.8 The following particulars relating to a mutual fund are given
to you:
Management Advisory Fees Rs. 275 lakhs
Administration Expenses (including Fund Manager Remuneration) Rs. 350 lakhs
Publicity and Documentation Rs. 80 lakhs
Opening NAV Rs. 108 crore
Closing NAV Rs. 170 crore
417 Solved problems
Problem 10.9 : A mutual fund has launched a new scheme in which the
initial expenses are 4% and annual recurring expenses are 1%. The required
rate of return in the market is 12%. What should be the annual return earned
by mutual fund so as to satisfy investors expectations.
Solution : Let us assume that the Face value of the unit is Rs 100. Initial
expense of 4% means investible funds are only Rs. 96 (i.e. 100- 4% of 100).
Now recurring expenses are charged on the funds actually invested. Hence
recurring expenses is 1% of Rs. 96 i.e. Re. 0.96 per unit.
Now the return expected by the unit holder is 12% i.e. Rs. 12.
Plus : Recurring expenses = 0.96
Total amount of return required = Rs. 12.96
Amount invested = Rs. 96
Return in % = 12.96/96 =0.135 or 13.5%
Thus in order to provide a return of 12% to the investors, the mutual fund
must earn a return of 13.5% annually.
Problem 10.10 Mr. K expects a return of 15% by investing on his own in
the equity shares. He is considering a mutual fund scheme which has the
issue expenses of 5.5% and is expected to earn 17%. How much should be
the recurring expenses of mutual fund to provide a return of 15% to Mr. K.
(B.Com(H)DU 2014)
Solution : Let us assume that the Face value of the unit is Rs. 100. Initial
expense of 5.5% means investible funds are only Rs. 94.5 (i.e. 100- 5.5% of 100).
Let us assume that recurring expenses are Rs. y.
Hence
0.17 = (15+y)/94.5
y = 1.065
Recurring Expenses in % are 1.065/94.5 = 1.12%
Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 418
Problem 10.12 The following particulars are furnished about three Mutual
Fund Schemes P, Q and R
Particulars P Q R
Dividend distributed 2 - 1.5
Capital Appreciation 3 4 2
Opening NAV 30 27 25
Beta 1.5 1.1 1.4
Ascertain the Alpha of the three schemes and evaluate their performance,
if Government of India Bonds carry an interest rate of 6% and the Sensex
has increased by 12%.
Solution:
S. No. Particulars P Q R
A. Dividend distributed 2 - 1.5
B. Capital Appreciation 3 4 2
C. Total Return(A+B) 5 4 3.5
D. Opening NAV 30 27 25
E. Actual Return(C/D) 16.67% 14.81% 14%
F. Risk free return 6 6 6
G. Market return 12 12 12
H. Beta 1.5 1.1 1.4
I. Expected return as per CAPM[(RF + βP × (RM 15% 12.6% 14.4%
– RF)]
F+H(G-F)
J. Jensen’s alpha(E-I) 1.67% 2.21% -0.4%
Ranking 2 1 3
Evaluation: Schemes Q and P outperformed the Sensex while R has un-
derperformed in comparison with Sensex.
Problem 10.13 The following information is available in respect of a mutual
fund. Find out the NAV per unit.
Cash and bank balance Rs. 550000
Bonds and debentures (unlisted) 700000
Equities (current market value) 1250000
Quoted govt. Securities 1005000
Expenses incurred 75000
No. of units outstanding 200000
(B.Com (H) 2008)
Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 420
Summary
u Mutual fund is a financial intermediary that collects funds from individual
investors and invests those funds in a wide range of assets or securities.
u Mutual Funds are required to get registered with the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (SEBI).
u Mutual funds offer different schemes to attract the investors and to meet up
their investment objectives.
u Mutual funds are managed by professionals and are expected to give higher
returns at less risk.
u ETFs are baskets of securities that are traded on an exchange like individual
stocks.
u A Systematic Investment Plan allows an investor to invest a certain pre-de-
termined amount at a regular interval.
u Systematic Withdrawal Plan permits the investors to make an investment at
one time and go for systematically withdraw at periodic intervals.
u Net Asset Value refers to the amount which a unitholder would receive per
unit if the scheme is wound up.
u The performance of mutual fund can be measured with the help of Sharpe’s
Ratio, Treynor’s Ratio and Jensen’s Alpha.
Test Yourself
True/False
i. For an open-end fund, the number of units outstanding can change daily.
ii. The market value of closed-end fund’s shares is usually not equal to the fund’s
NAV.
421 Test yourself
Theory Questions
1. What do you mean by mutual fund? How does it work? [Para 10.3]
2. “Mutual funds is an indirect investment”. Examine it in the light of features
and advantages of mutual funds. (B.Com(H)DU 2009, 2014) [Para 10.3]
3. What are the types of mutual fund schemes available in India? Give details.
(B.Com(H)DU 2011) [Para 10.5]
4. Write short notes on the following :
i. Net asset value [Para 10.7]
ii. Balanced funds [Para 10.5]
iii. Load and No load Funds (B.Com(H)DU 2013) [Para 10.5]
iv. Open ended and Closed ended funds (B.Com(H)DU 2011) [Para 10.5]
v. Features of a mutual fund (B.Com(H)DU 2011) [Para 10.3]
5. What do you mean by NAV? How is it calculated? Explain with example.
[Para 10.7]
6. Explain various types of equity schemes of mutual funds.
(B.Com(H)DU 2007, 2013) [Para 10.5]
7. What are the advantages of investing in mutual funds? [Para 10.3]
8. Distinguish between:
(a) Open-ended and close-ended funds [Para 10.5]
(b) Income and growth funds [Para 10.5]
(c) Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) and Systematic Withdrawal Plan
(SWP) [Para 10.6]
9. Write short notes on:
(a) Systematic investment plan [Para 10.5]
(b) Exchange traded funds [Para 10.6]
(c) Advantages of SIP [Para 10.5]
Portfolio performance evaluation & mutual funds 422
Practical Problems
1. A Mutual Fund made an issue of 70,000 units of Rs. 100 each on 01.01.2015.
No entry load was charged. It made the following investments:
Particulars P Q R
Dividend distributed 5 - 2.5
Capital Appreciation 2 3 2
Opening NAV 33 29 27
Beta 1.3 1.1 1.2
Ascertain the Alpha of the three schemes and evaluate their performance,
if Government of India Bonds carries an interest rate of 5% and the Sensex
has increased by 15%. [Ans. : 3.21%, -5.65%, -0.33%, P outperforms]
14. The following information is available in respect of a mutual fund. Find out
the NAV per unit.
425 Test yourself
learninG oUtCoMes
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Know the meaning of derivatives and various types of derivatives.
Understand participants in derivative markets.
Differentiate forward and futures contracts.
Know salient features of futures contracts
Determine forward and futures price using Cost of Carry Model.
Define an options contract and explain its various types
Distinguish between futures and options
Determine payoffs from various positions on Call and Put options.
Use options for hedging
Analyse various types of derivatives available in Indian markets.
currencies, interest rates and market indexes. Stock futures are derivative
contracts based on individual stocks in the securities market. Stock index
futures are derivative contracts where the underlying asset is an index. In
case of wheat futures, the underlying asset is wheat. In case of gold futures
the underlying asset is gold. Similarly we have derivatives based on various
real as well as financial assets. Now a days we also find derivatives which
are based on other derivatives. The derivative itself is merely a contract
between two or more parties.
Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 defines derivative as under:
“Derivative” includes—
(A) a security derived from a debt instrument, share, loan, whether se-
cured or unsecured, risk instrument or contract for differences or
any other form of security,
(B) a contract which derives its value from the prices, or index of prices,
of underlying securities.
11.4 FORWARDS
A forward contract is a private bilateral agreement between two parties to
buy and sell a specified asset at a specified price on a specified future date.
Consider a farmer in Punjab, Mr. Singh, plans to grow 5000 Kgs of wheat
this year. He can sell his wheat for whatever the price is when he harvests
it, or he could lock in a price now by selling a forward contract that obli-
gates him to sell 5000 kgs of wheat to Pillsbury after the harvest for a fixed
or specified price. By locking in the price now, he can actually eliminate
the risk of falling wheat prices. On the down side, if prices rise later, he is
foreclosing the opportunity of super profits. But then, he must have played
safe and insured himself against the possibility of prices falling down
eventually. The transaction that Mr. Singh has entered into is known as
Forward transaction and the contract covering such transaction is known
as Forward Contract.
Hence a forward is a contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified
asset at a pre-determined price on a specified future date.
A financial forward contract is that forward contract where the underlying
is a financial asset such as currency. For example assume that an Indian
company XYZ Ltd. has to pay its import bills in 20000 US dollars after three
Para 11.4 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 430
months. However the company faces the risk of rupee depreciation, i.e. the
price of the US dollar may go up. To guard against this exchange rate risk,
the company may enter into a forward agreement with some other com-
pany to buy 20000 US dollars at a specified price after 3 months. This way
it has hedged its position. If after three months the exchange rate is higher,
the company `stands to gain. If on the other hand the rupee appreciates
and US dollars are available at a lower price, the company stands to lose.
In any case the company’s position is certain in the sense that it will get
20000 US dollars at the pre specified price after 3 months.
Features-
Forward contract has following features:
u Customised - Each contract is custom designed and parties may agree
upon the contract size, expiration date, the asset type, quality, etc.
u Underlying asset - The underlying asset can be a stock, bond, com-
modity, foreign currency, interest rate or any combination thereof.
u Symmetrical rights and obligations - Both the parties to a forward
contract have equal rights and obligations. The buyer is obliged to
buy and the seller is obliged to sell at maturity. They can also enforce
each other to perform the contract.
u Non-regulated market - Forward contracts are private and are largely
non-regulated, consisting of banks, government, corporations and
investment banks. It is not regulated by any exchange.
u Counter-party Risk or default risk - This is a risk of non-performance
of obligation by either party as regards to payment (buyer) or deliv-
ery (seller). Being a private contract, there are chances of default or
counter party risk.
u Held till maturity - The contracts are generally held till maturity. A
forward contract cannot be squared up at the wish of one party. It
can be cancelled only with the consent of the other party.
u Liquidity - Liquidation is low, as contracts are customised catering
to the needs of parties involved. They are not traded on an exchange.
u Settlement of Contract - Settlement of a derivative contract can be
in two ways - through delivery or through cash settlement. Most of
the forward contracts are settled through delivery. In this case the
buyer pays the price and seller gives the delivery of the specified as-
set at maturity. Some of the forward contracts are also cash settled.
In case of cash settlement, the parties only pay/receive the price
431 FUTURES Para 11.5
11.5 FUTURES
A Futures contract is a refined or modified forward contract. A futures
contract is a contract to buy or sell a specified asset (physical or financial
asset) at a specified price on a specified future date. It is traded on an
exchange and is a standardised contract. A financial futures contract is
a contract wherein two parties agree to buy or sell a specified financial
asset at a specified price on a specified future date. Futures contracts are
generally traded on an exchange which sets the basic standardized rules
for trading in the futures contracts.
Features:
u Standardised Contract - Terms and conditions of future contracts
are standardized. They are specified by the exchange where they are
traded.
u Exchange based Trading - Trading takes place on a formal exchange
which provides a place to engage in these transactions and sets a
mechanism for the parties to trade these contracts.
u No default risk - Futures contract has virtually no default risk be-
cause the exchange acts as a counterparty and guarantees delivery
and payment with the help of a clearing house.
u Clearing house - The clearing house protects the parties from default
by requiring the parties to deposit margin and settle gains and losses
(or mark to market their positions) on a daily basis.
u Liquidity - Futures contracts are highly liquid contracts as they are
continuously traded on the exchange. Any party can square up his
position any time.
u Before maturity settlement possible - An investor can offset his future
position by engaging in an opposite transaction before the stipulated
maturity of the contract.
u Margin requirement - All futures contracts have margin requirements.
Margin money is required to be deposited with the exchange by both
the buyer as well as seller at the time of entering into the contract.
Margin is important to safeguard the interest of the other party. There
are two types of margins – initial margin and maintenance margin.
Initial margin is the margin amount to be deposited initially with the
exchange. If contract value is Rs. 100000, initial margin requirement
Para 11.5 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 432
index futures, the underlying asset is an Index. In this chapter we deal with
only two types of financial futures viz - Index futures and Stock Futures.
a. INDEX FUTURES
In case of Index futures the underlying asset is a stock index say NIFTY
or SENSEX. A stock index is constructed by selecting a number of
stocks and is used to measure changes in the prices of that group of
stocks over a period of time. Futures contracts are also available on
these indices. This helps investors make money on the performance
of the index.
u Contract size : Index futures contracts are dealt in lots. The
stock indices points – the value of the index – are converted
into rupees.
For example, suppose the BSE Sensex value was 6000 points.
The exchange stipulates that each point is equivalent to Rs. 1,
Further each contract has a lot size of 100. Then the value of
one contract will be 100 times the index value – Rs. 6,00,000
i.e. 1×6,000×100.
u Expiry : An open position in index futures can be settled by
conducting an opposing transaction on or before the day of
expiry.
u Duration: Index futures have three contract series open for
trading at any point in time - the near-month (1 month), mid-
dle-month (2 months) and far-month (3 months) index futures
contracts.
Example : If the index stands at 3550 points in the cash market today
and an investor decide to purchase one Nifty 50 July future, he would
have to purchase it at the price prevailing in the futures market.
The price of one July futures contract could be anywhere above,
below or at Rs. 3.55 lakh (i.e., 3550×100), depending on the prevail-
ing market conditions. Investors and traders try to profit from the
opportunity arising from this difference in prices.
b. STOCK FUTURES
Stock futures are futures contracts where the underlying is an in-
dividual stock. For example SBI stock futures have SBI stock as the
underlying asset.
u Lot/Contract size : In the financial derivatives market, the
contracts are not traded for a single share. Instead, every stock
futures contract consists of a fixed lot of the underlying share.
435 futures Para 11.5
As the futures are available at Rs. 915 only, the investor should buy the
futures.
Illustration 11.6 An investor buys Sensex futures at a price of 5500 in the
market lot size of 400. On the settlement date, the Sensex is 5700. Find out
his profit or loss for one futures contract.
Solution:
Profit = (5700-5500) × 400 = Rs. 80000
Illustration 11.7 A share is currently selling at Rs. 900 in the spot market.
Dividend of Rs. 20 is expected after 6 months and after 12 months. The risk
free rate is 18% per annum with continuous compounding. What is price
of a 12 months futures contract?
Solution : Here we have dividend income of Rs. 20 at the end of 6 months
and Rs. 20 at the end of 12 months.
Hence the present value of dividend incomes = I = 20e-(0.18)6/12 + 20e-(0.18)12/12
= 20e-0.09 + 20e-(0.18) = 20(0.913) + 20(0.835) = 18.27 + 16.70 = Rs. 34.98
Futures Price = (900 - 34.98)e(0.18)12/12
= (865.02)(1.197)
= Rs. 1035.6
11.6 OPTIONS
An options is a contract that gives its buyer (holder) a right (but not obli-
gation) to buy or sell a specified asset at a specified price (exercise price)
on or before a specified future date. An options is a contract sold by one
party (option-writer) to another party (option holder). The holder of the
options can exercise the option at specified price or may allow it to lapse.
The specified price is also termed as strike price or exercise price.
The options contract gives a right to the buyer. The seller has the obliga-
tion but no right. If the option holder exercises the option, then the writer
or seller of the option will be obliged to perform. Hence when the option
holder has a right to buy, the option writer has the obligation to sell. When
option holder has a right to sell, then the option writer has the obligation
to buy. Hence in case of options, the buyer and sellers are not on equal
footing. The buyer has a privileged position. Since the buyer has a right
but no obligation, he has to pay some price, known as options premium
to the seller (or writer) of the option. NO RIGHT COMES FREE OF COST.
Hence the buyer pays options premium to the seller to buy the right to
buy or sell. The seller receives this options premium as a compensation for
the obligation he undertakes. Hence options contracts are asymmetrical
439 options Para 11.6
w.r.t. rights and obligations. The buyer of the options contract has a right
but no obligation. The seller or writer of the options has an obligation but
no right. Since the holder of the option has a right, he may not exercise
his right if the conditions are unfavourable. Hence it is possible that the
options contract is not exercised at all.
This clearly differentiate options contract from futures contract discussed
above. In case of futures contracts, both the buyer as well as seller has
equal rights and obligations. They can enforce each other to perform the
contract. At the same time they are obliged to perform the contract.
COMPARISON BETWEEN FUTURES AND OPTIONS
Types of Options:
a. Call options - An options contract that gives its holder the ‘right to
buy’ a specified asset at a specified price on or before a specified future
date, is termed as call option. The seller has the obligation to sell. A
call option is bought when the buyer of the call option fears a rise
in underlying asset’s price. A call option is exercised when the stock
price is greater than the exercise price. In such a case the holder of
the call options can buy the stock or asset at the exercise price which
is lower than the prevailing market price.
For example: Let us assume that the current price of SBI shares is
Rs. 119. Mr. A expects that the price of SBI share will go up, hence
he buys a call option on SBI shares at the exercise price of Rs. 120.
The expiration date is after 1 month. Further assume that the option
can be exercised only on the expiry date and not before that. Now if
on the expiry date, the prevailing market price of SBI share is more
than 120, say Rs. 125, then Mr. A will exercise the option. He will buy
a share of SBI by exercising his call option at the price of Rs. 120. He
can sell it at the market price of 125 in spot market and make a gain
of Rs. 5. If on the other hand the market price is Rs. 115 on the date
of expiry, then Mr. A will not exercise this call option. His loss in this
case will be the amount of option premium that he must have paid
at the time of buying this call option.
441 options Para 11.6
Styles of Options:
a. European options - A European style options contract can be exercised
only on the expiration date. In the above examples the call options
as well as put options were of European style as it is given that they
can be exercised only on the expiration date and not before that.
b. American options - An American style options contract can be exercised
at any time before the expiration or on the expiration date. American
options provide more flexibility to the holder of the options, as he may
exercise the options anytime till maturity. Therefore, American style
of options have higher options premium than the European style of
options.
writes the call option), then such a call option is known as Covered
Option. If the option is exercised then the writer supplies the stock
that he holds or has previously purchased. In this case the option
is covered with the stock that the option writer is holding. Covered
option writing is a less risky strategy.
b. Naked option – Naked option means an option for which the seller
does not own the underlying security. When the option writer does
not have the underlying stock but writes (or sells) the option to buy
that stock (i.e. writes the call option), then such a call option is known
as Naked option. If the price of the stock rises and the call option is
exercised, the option writer must buy the stock at the higher mar-
ket price in order to supply it to the buyer. With naked option the
potential for loss is considerably greater than with covered option.
option is the price at which the security can be sold (on or before
the expiration date).
u Expiration date - The date, on or before which, the option may be
exercised is termed as expiration date. Beyond this date the right of
the options holder ceases to exist. On or before the expiration date,
the option may be exercised if conditions are favourable to the buyer.
If conditions are not favourable then the option is not exercised and
is left to lapse.
u Option premium - In options contract, the option holder (or the buyer
of the options) has to pay some amount known as options premium
to the option writer (or seller of the options) for availing the right. It
is required because the buyer of the options has a right while seller of
the options has obligation to buy or sell at the specified price. Hence
there is a transfer of risk from the holder to the writer of the options.
Hence the holder of the options must pay some amount to the writer
to buy the options. The amount of option premium depends upon
strike price, time to expiry, risk free rate of return and volatility of
the underlying asset.
S1> X. If S1 < X, option holder won’t exercise the call option and the call
option expires with zero value. The loss to the option holder shall be limited
to the premium paid by him originally. Profit to the option holder is the
value of the option at expiration minus the premium paid.
It must be noted that the option holder must pay an amount called Option
premium to the option writer so as to buy the call option. If the amount of
call option premium is C, the Net payoff (or profit and loss) of a Long Call
(i.e. of a buyer of a call option) is determined as under
= S1 – X - C if S1 > X
Net Payoff (profit or loss) to Long call (call holder)
= 0-C = - C if S1 ≤ X
The investor would break-even if market price is equal to exercise price
plus the option premium already paid. When market price is higher than
this break-even point then the call option holder makes profits. On the
other hand if market price is lower than the break-even point then the call
option holder incurs a loss, maximum of the amount of option premium.
In our example the buyer of a call option would break-even if the market
price is Rs. 260. The net payoff of the call with the exercise price Rs. 250
can be given as under for different stock prices at expiration.
Share price on exercise date (S1) 240 250 260 270 280
Exercise price (E) 250 250 250 250 250
Exercise option No No Yes Yes Yes
Buyer’s Inflow 0 0 260 270 280
Buyer’s outflow 0 0` -250 -250 -250
Premium Paid -10 -10 -10 -10 -10
Net Payoff Or Loss/Profit -10 -10 0 10 20
Exercise Price
In the Fig 11.1 above, it could be observed that if the share price is less than
the exercise price, the loss of the option holder is constant and is limited
to the option premium paid. However, as the share price increases beyond
the exercise price, his loss reduces and breaks even when the share price
equals exercise price plus premium. When the share price is beyond this
break-even point then the option holder makes profit or gains. The potential
for the gains is unlimited. The higher the share price the greater is the gain.
Hence the loss to a long call (or call option holder) is limited to the amount
of option premium paid, but gains are unlimited.
1(b) Selling a call option (Short Call or call option writer)
The position of a call option writer is exactly opposite of call option holder.
The seller of a call option receives option premium for writing the call option
but bears all the downside risk. A short call (i.e. seller of call option) incurs
losses if the share price is higher than the exercise price. In that case, the
option holder will exercise the call option and the writer or seller has to
fulfil his obligation deliver the share worth S1 (stock price at expiration)
for only X (exercise price) amount:
= –(S1 –X) if S1 > X
Payoff of a Short call (or call option writer)
=0 if S1 ≤ X
Where S1= Stock Price at expiration and X = Exercise Price.
Since the seller of the call options receives a premium of C irrespective of
the outcome of the call option, the net payoff (or profit and loss) to a short
call (or to call option seller) is given below:
= –(S1 – X)+C if S1 > X
Net Payoff (profit or loss) to Short call(or call writer)
= 0+C = C if S1 ≤ X
Where C = call option premium amount.
It must be noted that the net gain to a short call is limited to C while his po-
tential loss is unlimited. The higher the stock price at expiration the greater
will be the loss to a short call. Please note that the net payoff of a seller of
a call option is exactly the opposite of the net payoff of the holder of a call
option. Hence gains to the option holder is loss to the option seller and loss
of the option holder is the gain to the option seller. The break-even point
of call option seller is same as the break-even point of call option holder.
The call writer is exposed to losses if the share price increases: In our
example the net payoff to a seller of the call option will be as under for
different stock prices.
Share price at expiration (S1) 240 250 260 270 280
Exercise price 250 250 250 250 250
Para 11.6 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 446
Premium
10
Pay-off
Fig 11.2 : Net Payoff of a short call (or Call option writer/seller)
2. PUT OPTION :
A Put option provides the holder of the option, the right to sell, a security
at the exercise price .
2(a) Long Put (i.e. Buying a Put option or Put option holder)
Let us suppose an investor buys a put option of ABC Ltd. share with exercise
price (or strike price) of Rs. 250 at a premium of Rs. 10. The option holder
will exercise his put option to sell the share when the actual market price
of the share on the expiration date is less than Rs. 250. In that case the
447 options Para 11.6
holder of the put option can buy the share at a lower price from market
and sell the share at exercise price of Rs. 250 by exercising his put option.
At share price equal to or above Rs. 250, the option holder will choose not
to exercise the put option. He can sell the share in the market at a higher
price if he so desires.
To generalise, a put option is exercised by the holder only when the stock
price at expiration (S1) is lower than the exercise price (X). In such a case
the put option holder will sell his stock at exercise price to the seller of the
option rather than selling it in the market where he will get a lower price
for his stock. The option holder will not exercise his option if the stock
price at expiration is equal to or higher than the exercise price. Hence the
payoff from a put option is given below. It is also termed as the value of a
put option at expiry.
240
Break-even Price
Profit area
Pay-off
As it could be observed, the option holder of a put option exercises his option
as long as the stock price is lower than the exercise price. But he will not
make profit unless the difference between exercise price and stock price is
more than the amount of put option premium already paid by the option
holder. His profit is equal to the exercise price less the sum of stock price
and premium. Further, the option holder would like his option to lapse in
case the stock price is more than the exercise price. In that case the loss to
the option holder is equal to the amount of option premium already paid.
The option holder’s maximum loss is limited to the amount of premium paid
i.e. Rs. 10. The maximum gain to the put option holder will be when stock
price is zero (which is a hypothetical condition). In such a case the gain to
the put option holder will be equal to exercise price minus the amount of
premium paid. In our example it would be Rs 250-10 = Rs 240.
2(b) Short Put (or Selling a Put Option or Put Option writer)
The position of a put option writer is exactly opposite of the put option holder.
As seen above, the option holder will not exercise his option unless the stock
price is lower than the exercise price. Hence when stock price is higher than
the exercise price, the put option will lapse and its value will be zero. But
if stock price is lower than the exercise price then put option is exercised
and the loss to the put option seller will be equal to the difference between
exercise price and stock price. The payoff from a short put option or for a
seller of a put option is given below:
=0 if S1 ≥ X
Payoff to Short Put (or Put option Writer)
= -(X-S1) if S1 < X
449 options Para 11.6
Break-even Price
Loss area
Premium
10
Limited Profit
Pay-off
240
Fig 11.4: Net Payoff of a Short Put (i.e. Put Option Writer)
Para 11.6 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 450
The net payoff for the put option writer is negative if stock price is less
than (X–P). His loss potential is substantial and dependent upon the share
price. The lower the share price the greater will be the loss. However as
the share price cannot fall below zero, the maximum loss will be equal
to exercise price less premium. Hence in our example the maximum loss
to a put option writer will be Rs. 240 (i.e. 250-10). Please note that in our
example the maximum gain to a put option holder was Rs. 240. Further,
the profit to a put option writer is limited to the option premium received.
MONEYNESS OF OPTIONS
The moneyness of options is based upon the relationship between stock
price at the time of entering into the options contract (So) and exercise
price (X). Here we have to assess whether an option contract is beneficial
to the option holder initially i.e. in the beginning itself or not. If the option
contract is beneficial or favourable to the option buyer initially, then it is
termed as In the Money option. If it is not beneficial or is unfavourable
initially, it is termed as Out of Money option. If the option contract is nei-
ther favourable nor unfavourable then it is termed as At the Money option.
In other words ‘In the money’ implies the option holder can make mon-
ey(profit) by immediately exercising his right. ‘At the money’ implies there
is no chance of making money(no profit, no loss). ‘Out of money’ implies
that it is better not to exercise the option and let it lapse.
Call option
With respect to a call option, if the exercise price (X) is lower than the stock
price at the time of entering into contract (SO), then the option contract is
beneficial or favourable to the buyer of the call option and he can exercise
it immediately. Such a call option where, X<So, is termed as In the Money
Call option. When the exercise price is less than the stock price at the time
of entering the contract then the contact is neither beneficial nor unfa-
vourable to the buyer of the call option. Such a call option where, X=So,
is termed as At the Money Call option. On the other hand, if the exercise
price is higher than the stock price at the time of entering into contract,
then the option contract is unfavourable to the buyer of the call option
and he will incur a loss if he exercises it immediately. Such a call option
where, X>So, is termed as Out of the Money Call option.
Put option
With respect to a put option, if the exercise price (X) is higher than the stock
price at the time of entering into contract (SO), then the option contract is
beneficial or favourable to the buyer of the put option as he can exercise
it immediately and have profits. Such a put option where, X>So, is termed
as In the Money Put option. When the exercise price is less than the stock
price at the time of entering the contract then the contact is neither bene-
ficial nor unfavourable to the buyer of the put option. Such a put option
where, X=So, is termed as At the Money put option. On the other hand, if
the exercise price is lower than the stock price at the time of entering into
Para 11.6 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 452
contract, then the option contract is unfavourable to the buyer of the put
option and he will incur a loss if he exercises it immediately. Such a put
option where, X<So, is termed as Out of the Money put option.
RELATIONSHIP CALL OPTION PUT OPTION
So>X In the money Out of money
So=X At the money At the money
So<X Out of money In the money
Illustration 11.8 An investor buys a call option on the stock of RTL Ltd.
at an exercise price of Rs. 200 for a premium of Rs. 15. The option can be
exercised on the expiration date after 3 months. The current market price
of the stock is Rs 195. Find out the profit/loss to the call option holder if
stock price on expiration date is (i) 175 (ii) 185 (iii) 195 (iv) 200 (v) 205 (vi)
215 (vii) 225 (viii) 235. Also specify moneyness of the call option. What will
be his maximum loss and maximum gain?
Solution : The current stock price is 195 and exercise price is 200. Hence
the call option is “Out of Money” call option.
The net profit/loss to the call option holder is calculated as under
S1 (Stock price at expiry) 175 185 195 200 205 215 225 235
Whether option is exercised No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cash outflow 0 0 0 0 -200 -200 -200 -200
Cash inflow 0 0 0 0 205 215 225 235
Premium paid -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15
Profit/loss (Rs.) -15 -15 -15 -15 -10 0 10 20
The maximum loss will be limited to Rs. 15, i.e. the option premium paid.
The maximum gain potential is unlimited. The higher the stock price at
expiry the higher will be the gain.
Illustration 11.9 An investor buys a put option on the stock of XTL Ltd.
at an exercise price of Rs. 170 for a premium of Rs. 10. The option can be
exercised on the expiration date after 3 months. The current market price
of the stock is Rs 165. Find out the profit/loss to the put option holder if
stock price on expiration date is (i) 140 (ii) 150 (iii) 160 (iv) 170 (v) 180 (vi)
190 (vii) 200 (viii) 210. Also specify moneyness of the put option. What will
be his maximum loss and maximum gain?
Solution : The current stock price is 165 and exercise price is 170. Hence
the put option is “In the Money” put option.
453 options Para 11.6
OPTIONS STRATEGIES
The earlier section discussed about the payoff positions of different options.
These positions are referred to as uncovered positions. The options can be
combined with other actions to develop option strategies. These would be
known as covered positions. Different options can be combined together
to develop trading strategies. Some of the strategies are discussed below:
Protective Put (combination of share and put) - A protective put strat-
1.
egy is generally employed when the options holder is bullish on a
stock he already owns but is concerned about the uncertainties in
the future. In this strategy, an investor holding a stock will buy the
put option on the same stock. The buying of put option protects
the investor against the loss in price of shares. The strategy offers
opportunity to earn unlimited profit with limited risk. The strategy
is best for conservative but optimistic investors.
Covered Calls (combination of share and call) - A covered calls
2.
strategy is one where an investor holds a long position in a share
and writes (sells) call options on that share. The position is covered
because the investor holds share and can deliver the same, if the
call option (which he sold) is exercised by the option holder. This
strategy offers the opportunity to earn a premium by writing calls
while at the same time appreciate all benefits of stock ownership,
such as dividends and voting rights unless he is asked to deliver the
stock. On the downside, the profit potential of covered call writing
is limited .
Straddle (combination of call and put) - A straddle strategy involves
3.
holding a call option and a put option with the same strike price and
expiration dates. This strategy is used when the investor expects
substantial price movements but is not sure about its direction. That
is, when the investor expects that either the stock price will decline
substantially or will increase significantly.
Butterfly Spread - Butterfly spread uses four option contracts with
4.
the same expiration date but three different strike prices to create a
455 options Para 11.6
range of prices the strategy can profit from. The trader sells two call
options at the middle strike price and buys one call option at a lower
strike price and one call option contract at a higher strike price.
The butterfly strategy is to :
i. Buy one call option with a lower strike price,
ii. Sell two calls option with a middle strike price,
iii. Buy one call option with a higher strike price.
Illustration 11.11 Equity shares of PK Ltd. are currently available at a price
of Rs. 25 per share. Both the call option and put options are available at
a strike price of Rs. 27 per share for a premium of Rs. 2 and Rs. 3 respec-
tively. An investor creates a straddle strategy. Explain how he can do that.
What would be his net profit/loss if on the expiration date the stock price
is Rs. 18 or Rs. 35?
Solution : As explained above a Straddle strategy means buying a Call
option and a put option at the same strike price.
So the investor should buy a Call option and a Put option on the share at a
Strike price of Rs. 27 per share and will pay Rs. 2 +3 i.e. Rs. 5 as premium
amount.
Now if on expiry stock price = 18, the call option will not be exercised, but
Put option will be exercised. In that Case
Payoff from Call = 0
Payoff from Put = 27-18 = 9
Less : Premium paid = (5)
Net profit = Rs. 4
Further if on the expiry date stock price happens to be Rs. 35, then Call
option will be exercised but Put option will not be exercised. In that Case
Payoff from Call = (35-27) = 8
Payoff from Put = 0
Less : Premium paid = (5)
Net profit = Rs. 3
Hence in both the situations, the investor will make a gain.
Illustration 11.12 Equity shares of KK Ltd. are currently available at a
price of Rs. 22 per share. Three call options are available at different strike
prices. The strike prices are Rs. 20, 25 and 30 per share for a premium of
Rs. 5, 4 and Rs. 2 respectively. An investor creates a Butterfly spread
Para 11.6 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 456
strategy. Explain how he can do that. What would be his net profit/loss if
on the expiration date the stock price is Rs. 15, Rs. 23, 28 or Rs. 35.
Solution : As explained above a Butterfly strategy means buying a Call
option at a lower strike price, buy another call option at higher strike price
and sell two call options at middle strike price.
So the investor will create a butterfly spread by
u Buying a call option at Rs. 20 and pay premium Rs. 5
u Buying a call option at Rs. 30 and pay premium of Rs. 2
u Sell two call options at Rs. 25 and receive premium of Rs. 6 i.e.
(2× 3)
So the net outflow of the investor is -1 (i.e. 6-5-2).
Now
i. if on expiry, stock price = Rs. 15, None of the call options will not be
exercised, hence his net loss will be Re. -1 only.
ii. if on expiry, stock price = Rs. 23, then he will exercise the call option
with the strike price of Rs. 20. His payoff from call will be Rs. 3 i.e.
(23-20). His profit will be Rs 2 i.e. (3-1) . The other two calls will not
be exercised.
iii. if on expiry, stock price = 28, then he will exercise call option with
the strike price of Rs. 20. The two calls which he has sold at strike
price of Rs. 25 will also be exercised by the holders of these options.
In this case his
payoff from Long Call = Rs. 8 i.e. (28-20),
Payoff from two Short Calls = -6 i.e. [ i.e. 2 × (25-28)]
Net payoff or profit = 8-6-1 = 1
iv. if on expiry stock price = 35, then all the four calls will be exercised.
Now his payoffs are;
payoff from Long Call at strike price Rs. 20 = Rs. 15 i.e. (35-20),
Payoff from two Short Calls = -20 [ i.e. 2 × (25-35)]
payoff from Long Call at strike price Rs. 30 = Rs. 5 (35-30)
Net payoff or profit = 20-20-1 = -1
Pricing or valuation of options:
The value of an option is the price or premium that the buyer of the option
has to pay to get the option (or the right to buy or sell). Every option has a
price. In the money options will have higher price than out of money options.
457 options Para 11.6
a. Intrinsic Value
b. Time Value
a. Intrinsic Value - The intrinsic value is the difference between the
underlying asset’s price and the exercise price. For a call option, the
intrinsic value is equal to the underlying asset price minus the exer-
cise price or zero whichever is higher. For a put option, the intrinsic
value is equal to the exercise price minus the underlying asset price
of zero whichever is higher. It is non-negative, i.e. it is either zero
or positive. This implies that the options that have positive intrinsic
value are those that are “in the money” options.
Intrinsic Value(Call) = Max [(Market Price -Exercise Price), 0]
Intrinsic Value(Put) = Max[(Exercise Price-Market Price), 0]
b. Time Value - This is the amount by which the option price exceeds
the intrinsic value. As already discussed, the longer the time to expi-
ration, the greater the value of the option.
Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value
An option price, thus, is equal to its intrinsic value plus its time value.
Option Price = Intrinsic Value + Time Value
Illustration 11.13 : A call option is available for a strike price of Rs. 274, at
a premium of Rs. 10 for a share having current price of Rs. 276. Find out
the intrinsic value and time value components of the option value. What
will be the answer for a put option with the same features.
Solution : In case of call option, option premium = Rs. 10, Current price =
276, Strike price or Exercise price = 274. It is an In the money call option.
Hence it will have an intrinsic value equal to the difference between current
price and strike price.
Intrinsic value = Max [ (276-274), 0] = Max [2,0] = Rs. 2
Time value = option price – Intrinsic value = 10-2 = Rs. 8
In case of put option, option premium = Rs. 10, Current price = 276, Strike
price or Exercise price = 274. It is an Out of money put option. Hence it
will have an intrinsic value equal to zero.
Intrinsic value = Max [ (274-276), 0] = Max [-2,0] = 0 or Nil
Time value = option price – Intrinsic value = 10-0 = Rs. 10
Hence in case of put option the entire Option premium is Time value
component.
Para 11.6 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 460
d2 = d1 − σ t ..................................................................................(11.1B)
India’s tryst with derivatives began in 2000 when both the NSE and the BSE
commenced trading in equity derivatives. On 9th June, 2000, BSE launched
index futures on S&P BSE SENSEX. On 12th June, 2000 NSE introduced
Index futures on CNX NIFTY. Hence index futures became the first type
of derivatives instruments to be launched in the Indian markets, followed
by index options in June 2001, stock options in July 2001, and stock futures
in November 2001. Since then, equity derivatives have come a long way.
New products, an expanding list of eligible investors, rising volumes, and
the best risk management framework for exchange-traded derivatives
have been the hallmark of the journey of equity derivatives in India so far.
India’s experience with the equity derivatives market has been extremely
positive. India is one of the most successful developing countries in terms
of a vibrant market for exchange-traded derivatives. This reiterates the
strengths of the modern development in India’s securities markets, which
are based on nationwide market access, anonymous electronic trading,
and a predominantly retail market. There is an increasing sense that the
equity derivatives market plays a major role in shaping price discovery.
The NSE currently provides trading in Futures and Options contracts on 9
major indices (including indices in Indian market as well in Global markets)
and more than 100 securities.
The indices on which futures and options are being traded on NSE are-
u CNX NIFTY Index
u CNX IT Index
u BANK NIFTY Index
u NIFTY Midcap 50 Index
u CNX Infrastructure Index
u CNX PSE Index
GLOBAL INDICES
u S&P 500
u DJIA
u FTSE100
BSE has also expanded its derivatives segment by introducing new deriv-
ative products since the year 2001. In addition to BSE SENSEX, futures
and options are available on the following five sectoral indices.
u BSE TECK
u BSE FMCG
u BSE Metal
Para 11.7 Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 464
u BSE Bankex
u BSE Oil & Gas
Long Dated Options : BSE has also introduced ‘Long Dated Options’ on its
flagship index - Sensex -on February 29, 2008, whereby the Members can
trade in Sensex Options contracts with an expiry of up to 3 years.
Currency Derivative : October 1, 2008 BSE launched its currency deriv-
atives segment in dollar-rupee currency futures as the exchange traded
currency futures contracts to facilitate easy access, increased transparency,
efficient price discovery, better counterparty credit risk management, wider
participation and reduced transaction costs.
It must be noted that the settlement of all index and stock futures and options
in India is through cash and settlement through delivery is not permitted.
NATIONAL SECURITIES CLEARING CORPORATION LTD.
NSCCL, a wholly owned subsidiary of NSE, was incorporated in August
1995. It was the first clearing corporation to be established in the country
and also the first clearing corporation in the country to introduce settle-
ment guarantee.
It was set up with the following objectives:
u to bring and sustain confidence in clearing and settlement of secu-
rities;
u to promote and maintain, short and consistent settlement cycles;
u to provide counter-party risk guarantee, and
u to operate a tight risk containment system.
NSCCL commenced clearing operations in April 1996. The main functions
of NSCCL are discussed below–
Clearing and settlement : NSCCL carries out the clearing and settle-
1.
ment of the trades executed in the equities and derivatives segments.
It operates a well-defined settlement cycle and there are no deviations
or deferments from this cycle. It aggregates trades over a trading
period, nets the positions to determine the liabilities of members and
ensures movement of funds and securities to meet respective liabil-
ities. NSCCL has empanelled 13 clearing banks to provide banking
services to trading members and has established connectivity with
both the depositories for electronic settlement of securities.
Guarantee : NSCCL assumes the counter-party risk of each member
2.
and guarantees settlement through a fine-tuned risk management
system and an innovative method of on-line position monitoring.
A large Settlement Guarantee Fund provides the cushion for any
465 Solved Problems
Solved Problems
Problem 11.1 Consider a 3-month index future contract on 100 shares. The
current value of the index is 1520 and continuously compounded dividend
yield expected on the underlying shares is 4% per annum and continuously
Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 466
compounded risk free rate is 10% per annum. Calculate the price of one
future contract. (e0.015= 1.015)
Solution:
F = Se(r-q)t = 100 × 1520 e(0.10-0.04)3/12 = 100 × 1520e0.015 = Rs. 154,280
Problem 11.2 Consider a stock future contract on a non-dividend paying
share which is currently trading at Rs. 35. The futures contract mature in 3
months and the continuously compounded risk free rate is 8% per annum.
Calculate the price of one future contract. (e0.02= 1.0202).
Solution:
F = Sert = 35 e(0.08)3/12 = 35e0.02 = Rs. 35.71
Problem 11.3 The price of equity share of a company is Rs. 250. The risk
free rate is 8% per annum with continuous compounding. An investor wants
to enter into a 3 months futures contract. Calculate the futures price.
(B.Com (H) DU 2013)
Solution:
F = Sert = 250 e(0.08)3/12 = 250e0.02 = Rs. 255.05
Problem 11.4 The price of shares of XYZ Ltd. is Rs. 150. The risk free rate is
12% per annum with continuous compounding. An investor wants to enter
into a 6 months forward contract. Calculate the forward price. (e0.06= 1.062)
Solution:
F = Sert = 150 e(0.12)6/12 = 150e0.06 = Rs. 159.3
Problem 11.5 The stock index is currently valued at Rs. 400 and the risk
free rate is 6%. Find out the futures price for a 4 months contract if the
dividend yield is 3%.(.(e0.01= 1.01)
Solution:
F = Se(r-q)t = 400 e(0.06-0.03)4/12 = 400e0.01 = Rs. 404.02
Problem 11.6 The shares of PQR Ltd. are currently selling at Rs. 450 per
share. The 4 months futures contract on this share is available at Rs. 500.
Should the investor buy this futures contract if the risk free rate of interest
is 12%?
Solution:
F = Sert = 450 e(0.12)4/12 = 450e0.04 = Rs. 468.36
As the futures are available at Rs. 500, the investor should not buy the
futures contract.
467 Solved problems
Problem 11.7 An investor buys Sensex futures at 25500 in the market lot
of 400 futures. On the settlement date, the Sensex is 25700. Find out his
profit or loss for one lot of futures.
Solution:
Profit = (25700 - 25500) × 400 = Rs. 80000
Problem 11.8 An investor buys 600 shares of ABC Ltd. @ Rs. 300 per share
in the cash market. In order to hedge, he sells 400 futures of ABC Ltd @
Rs. 200 each. The share price and the future price decline by 8% and 4%
the very next day. He closes his position by counter transactions. Find out
his profit or loss.
Solution:
600 Shares of ABC Ltd. Buying Cost 600× 300 Rs. 180000
Selling Value 600× (300-8%) Rs. 165600
Loss Rs. 14400
400 Futures of ABC Ltd. Selling Value 400 × 200 Rs. 80000
Buying Value 400× (200-4%) Rs. 76800
Profit Rs. 3200
NET LOSS 14400-3200 Rs. 11200
Problem 11.9 An investor buys 500 shares of ABC Ltd. @ Rs. 210 per share
in the cash market. In order to hedge, he sells 300 futures of ABC Ltd @
Rs. 195 each. The share price and the future price decline by 5% and 3%
respectively the very next day. He closes his position by counter transac-
tions. Find out his profit or loss.
(B.Com (H) DU 2008, 2012)
Solution:
500 Shares of ABC Ltd. Buying Cost 500× 210 Rs. 105,000
Selling Value 500× (210-5%) Rs. 99750
Loss Rs. 5250
400 Futures of ABC Ltd. Selling Value 300 × 195 Rs. 58500
Buying Value 300× (195-3%) Rs. 56745
Profit Rs. 1755
NET LOSS 5250-1755 Rs. 3495
Problem 11.10 An investor buys NIFTY Futures contract for Rs. 300000(lot
size 200). On the settlement date, the NIFTY closes at 1470. Find out his
profit or loss, if he pays Rs. 1000 as brokerage. What would be position, if
he has sold the futures contract?
Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 468
Problem 11.14 An investor buys a SENSEX futures contract for Rs. 15,00,000
(lot size 50 futures). On the settlement date SENSEX closes at 29500. Find
out his profit or loss if he has paid a brokerage of Rs. 1000. What would
have been his gain if he had sold futures?
Solution : The investor has bought SENSEX futures at 30000 in lot size of
50 (i.e. value of one contract is 30000 × 50) and the value of SENSEX has
declined. Hence he would incur loss on his futures position. Assuming that
the brokerage is paid at the time of settlement, his total loss would be :
Loss = (30000-29500) × 50 + 1000 = Rs. 26000
If the investor has sold SENSEX futures at 30000 in lot size of 50 (i.e. value
of one contract is 30000 × 50) and the value of SENSEX has declined. Then
he would make gain on his futures position. Assuming that the brokerage
is paid at the time of settlement, his total gain would be :
Gain = (30000-29500) × 50 - 1000 = Rs. 24000
Problem 11.15 The market lot size is 100 and the futures price is Rs. 1700.
An investor takes a long position in futures market and buys 10 lots. On
the settlement date the market price of the share is Rs. 1710. Find out the
profit or loss to the investor.
Solution : The purchase price of 10 lots of futures = 1700 ×100 ×10 =
Rs. 1700000
The selling price = 1710 × 100 × 10 = Rs. 1710000
Hence profit = Rs. 10000
Problem 11.16 A three month call option premium is Rs. 5 and 3 month
put option premium is Rs. 7. Assume that the exercise price for both the
cases is Rs. 100, find out the net pay-off of call option holder, call option
writer, put option holder and put option writer if the spot price of the share
on the expiry day is
i. Rs. 95
ii. Rs. 100
iii. Rs. 103
iv. Rs. 105
v. Rs. 107
vi. Rs. 110
Solution:
NET PAY OFF FOR CALL OPTION HOLDER
Problem 11.17 The shares of FPL Ltd. are being traded at a price of Rs. 234
in the spot market. An investor buys a 3 month put option at a premium of
Rs. 12 and strike price of Rs. 232. Under which situation the investor will
be able to make profit assuming that the option is of European style and
can be exercised only on maturity. When would he exercise the option?
471 Solved problems
Solution : Put option is the right to sell. The investor will exercise this put
option when the market price on expiration date is less than Rs. 232 i.e. the
strike price. However he would start making profit only when the market
price falls below 220 (i.e. 232 - 12) because he has already incurred a cost
of Rs. 12 in buying this put option.
Problem 11.18 The shares of KPL Ltd are being traded at a price of Rs.
234 in the spot market. Mr. X writes a call option at a strike price of Rs. 236
for a premium of Rs 7. Under which situation Mr. X will be able to make
profit assuming that the option is of European style and can be exercised
only on maturity. What would be the amount of his profit. When will he
incur a loss?
Solution : Call option is the right to Buy. Mr. X is the call option writer or
seller of the call option. Hence he will receive option premium of Rs. 7 but
is exposed to all the downside risk. A call option is not exercised when the
market price at expiry date is lower than or equal to the strike price. Hence
in that case the call option writer i.e. Mr X will make profit to the extent of
Rs. 7 i.e. premium already received. Thus Mr. X will make a profit of Rs. 7
when the market price at expiry is lower than or equal to Rs. 236.
However when the market price is more than Rs. 236, then the call option
will be exercised by its holder. In that case Mr. X will have some profit only
up to the price of Rs 243 (i.e. 236+7). If price is higher than Rs. 243 then
Mr. X will incur a loss.
Problem 11.19 Mr. B purchased 3 months call option of 100 shares of
Barati Airtel at a strike price of Rs. 300 per share and paid a premium of
Rs. 30 per share. Find out his expected gain or loss if the actual price on
expiration date is (i) Rs. 250 (ii) Rs. 350. Also find his break even point with
the help of payoff diagram.
(B.Com(H) DU 2012)
Exercise Price
Solution : Lot size = 100. Premium on call = Rs. 30 per share, Strike price
= 300 per share.
i. When actual price is Rs. 250, then the call option will not be exercised.
Hence there will be loss to Mr. B to the extent of Rs. 30 per share
which he has already paid as premium.
Hence net loss = 30 × 100 = 3000.
ii. When actual price is Rs. 350. Call option will be exercised. In that
case payoff from call option will be Rs. 50 per share (i.e. 350 – 300).
But he has already incurred a cost of Rs. 30 per share as premium.
Hence his net profit will be
Payoff from call option = 50 × 100 = 5000
Less: premium already paid = (3000)
Net profit = Rs. 2000.
iii. Mr. B will have break-even point when actual price is equal to
Rs. 330 per share (i.e. 300 + 30) . Beyond this price he will have profits.
Below this price he will incur loss.
This is shown in terms of per share in the given diagram as above.
Problem 11.20 Three months call option premium is Rs. 2 and 3 months
put option premium is Rs. 3. Assume that the exercise price for both the
cases is Rs. 50, find out the net payoff of the call option buyer, call option
writer, put option buyer as well as put option writer when spot price of
the share on the exercise price day is Rs. 47, Rs. 49, Rs. 50, Rs. 52, Rs. 53,
Rs. 55 and Rs. 60.
(B.Com(H) DU 2013)
Solution : Premium on call = Rs. 2 per share, Premium on Put = Rs. 3 per share.
Strike price = Rs. 50 . The call option is exercised when stock price at expiry is
higher than Rs. 50 and a put option is exercised when it is lower than Rs. 50.
Spot price on Expiration date 47 49 50 52 53 55 60
Call option buyer
Payoff from call 0 0 0 2 3 5 10
Premium paid -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
Net payoff -2 -2 -2 0 1 3 8
Call option writer
Payoff from call 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -10
Premium received 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Net payoff 2 2 2 0 -1 -3 -8
473 Solved problems
(iv) if on expiry stock price = 47, then all the four calls will be exercised.
Now his payoffs:
Payoff from Long Call at strike price Rs. 30 = Rs. 17 (47-30),
Payoff from two Short Calls at strike price of Rs. 35 = -24 [ i.e. 2 ×
(35-47)]
Payoff from Long Call at strike price Rs. 40 = Rs. (47-40) = 7
Net payoff or profit = 17+7-24 -1 = Re. -1
Summary
u Derivatives are financial instruments whose value depend upon or derived
from one or more underlying assets.
u The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities,
currencies, interest rates and market indexes.
u A forward is a private contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified
asset at a pre-determined price.
u A futures contract is a contract wherein two parties agree to buy or sell a
specified financial instrument or physical commodity for future delivery at a
pre-agreed price. Futures contracts are traded on an exchange and are well
regulated.
u For pricing a futures contract we use Cost of Carry Model.
u Futures contract can be used for the purpose of hedging as well as for specu-
lation.
u A long position in stocks can be hedged by selling futures.
u A short position in stocks can be hedged by buying futures.
u An option is a contract sold by one party (option-writer) to another party
(option holder). The option contract gives its holder the right, but not the
obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) a security or other financial asset at a
specified price on or before the expiration date.
u A call option gives its holder a right to buy while a Put option gives its holder
a right to sell.
u An American style option can be exercised at any time before the expiration
or on the expiration date while a European style option can only be exercised
on the expiration date.
u Different factors like Share price, exercise price, volatility of the share return,
interest rate and time to expiration, affect the value of a share option.
u Models like Black-Scholes Model and Binomial Model are used to value a call
option.
477 Test Yourself
Test Yourself
True/False
a. Derivatives are same as shares and debentures.
b. Forwards and Futures are same.
c. Futures have a theoretical price.
d. Options give unlimited profit potential to seller always.
e. Futures and options are available on the shares in India.
f. Expiry date of option contract is mutually decided by the parties.
g. Loss of call option holder and put option holder is always limited.
h. Intrinsic value of option is positive or zero.
i. American options can be exercised at expiry only.
j. Put and call options are inverse of each other.
k. Futures and options are used only for hedging.
[Answer-(a) F (b) F (c) T (d) F (e) T (f) F (g) T (h) T (i) F (j) F (k) F]
Theory Questions
1. What are Financial Derivatives? Who all are the major participants in the
derivative market? How would you distinguish between futures and options?
(B.Com (H) DU 2007)(Paras 11.2, 11.3, 11.5)
2. What do you mean by forwards? What are their features? (Para 11.4)
3. What are futures contracts? How futures are different from forwards?
(B.Com (H) DU 2009, 2011)(Para 11.5)
4. How the futures contracts can be priced under different situations?
(Para 11.5)
5. Differentiate between forwards and futures.
(B.Com (H) DU 2014)(Para 11.5)
6. What is an option? What is the difference between a put option and call
option? (Para 11.6)
7. Differentiate between options and futures. (Paras 11.5 & 11.6)
8. Show the payoff diagrams of an investor who is:
a. a buyer of a call option
b. a seller of call option
c. a buyer of put option
d. a seller of put option (Para 11.6)
9. Explain when a call option and a put option are in the money, at the money
and out of the money? (Para 11.6)
Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 478
Practical Problems
1. A share of the company is available at Rs. 2500. If the risk free rate of return
is 7% per annum compounded continuously and dividend yield is 5% p.a. What
will be the futures price of share after 3 months?
[Answer-Rs. 2512.53]
2. The market price of the share is Rs. 250 at present. The risk free rate is 8%.
Find out the price of futures contract when the time period of futures contract
is 3 months.
[Answer- Rs. 255.05]
3. An investor buys 300 shares of ABC Ltd. @ Rs. 210 per share in the cash
market. In order to hedge, he sells 200 futures of ABC Ltd @ Rs. 195 each.
The share price and the future price decline by 5% and 3% the very next day.
He closes his position by counter transactions. Find out his profit or loss.
[Answer - Net Loss - Rs. 1980]
4. The current price of share is Rs. 700. Risk-free cost of financing is 15% and
the future period is one month. Find out the price of the futures contract.
[Answer - Rs. 708.80]
5. Risk-free interest rate in the market is 8% and the market price of the share
is Rs. 355. What is the price of a futures contract for 3 months period if the
dividend yield is 4% p.a.?
[Answer- Rs. 358.57]
479 Test Yourself
6. Consider a 4-month index futures contract on 100 shares lot size. The cur-
rent value of the index is 1620 and continuously compounded dividend yield
expected on the underlying shares is 5% per annum and continuously com-
pounded risk free rate is 12% per annum. Calculate the price of one future
contract.
[Answer- Rs. 1658.24]
7. Consider a stock future contract on a non-dividend paying share which is
currently trading at Rs. 75. The futures contract mature in 3 months and the
continuously compounded risk free rate is 7% per annum. Calculate the price
of one future contract.
[Answer- Rs. 76.32]
8. The price of equity share of a company is Rs. 270. The risk free rate is 7% per
annum with continuous compounding. An investor wants to enter into a 2
months futures contract. Calculate the futures price. If this futures contract
is available at Rs. 260, should an investor buy it?
[Answer- Rs. 273.17, Buy]
9. The price of shares of XYZ Ltd. is Rs. 135. The risk free rate is 12% per annum
with continuous compounding. An investor wants to enter into a 6 months
forward contract. Calculate the forward price.
[Answer- Rs. 143.35]
10. The stock index is currently valued at Rs. 4000 and the risk free rate is 9%.
Find out the futures price for a 4 month contract if the dividend yield is 3%.
[Answer- Rs. 4080.80]
11. The shares of RSY Ltd. are currently selling at Rs. 340 per share. The 4 months
futures contract on this share is available at Rs. 350. Should the investor buy
this futures contract if the risk free rate of interest is 12%?
[Answer- Rs. 353.88, Buy]
12. An investor buys Sensex futures at 24550 in the market lot of 200 futures. On
the settlement date, the Sensex is 24700. Find out his profit or loss for one lot
of futures.
[Answer- Profit Rs. 30000]
13. An investor buys 300 shares of ABC Ltd. @ Rs. 280 per share in the cash market.
In order to hedge his position, he sells 200 futures of ABC Ltd @ Rs. 270 each.
The share price and the future price decline by 5% and 4% the very next day.
He closes his position by counter transactions. Find out his profit or loss.
[Answer- Net loss Rs. 2040]
14. An investor buys NIFTY Futures contract for Rs. 300000 (lot size 200). On
the settlement date, the NIFTY closes at 1570. Find out his profit or loss, if
he pays Rs. 1500 as brokerage. What would be his position, if he has sold the
futures contract?
[Answer- Profit Rs. 12500 : Loss Rs. 15500]
Financial derivatives - Forwards, futures & options 480
15. The market price of equity shares of a company is Rs. 145 and the company
is expected to declare a dividend of Rs. 10 after 1 month. What should be the
futures price of three months futures contract if continuously compounded
risk free rate is 12%?
[Answer- Rs. 139.21]
16. The market price of the equity share of KTR Ltd. is Rs. 55 in the spot market.
It has not been paying any dividend. The continuously compounding risk free
rate is 6% p.a. The three month futures price for the share is Rs 58. Should
the investor enter into 3-month futures contract?
[Answer- Rs. 55.83, Sell]
17. An investor buys ICICI Bank’s futures at Rs. 280 in the market lot of 100 fu-
tures. On the settlement date the market price of ICICI Bank’s share in spot
market is Rs. 295. Find out his profit or loss for one lot of futures.
[Answer- Profit Rs. 48.800]
18. An investor buys a SENSEX futures contract for Rs. 25,00,000 (lot size 100
futures). On the settlement date SENSEX closes at 25500. Find out his profit
or loss if he has paid a brokerage of Rs. 1200.
[Answer- Loss Rs. 10000]
19. The market lot size is 100 and the futures price is Rs. 1720. An investor takes
a long position in futures market and buys 10 lots. On the settlement date
the market price of the share is Rs. 1710. Find out the profit or loss to the
investor.
[Answer- Loss Rs. 10000]
20. Identify which of the following options will be exercised by the buyer of
option:
S. No. Strike price (Rs.) Nature of option Market price (Rs.)
1 200 Call 220
2 280 Put 260
3 235 Put 220
4 240 Call 240
5 252 Call 245
6 260 Put 285
7 215 Put 210
[Answer – 1 Yes 2 Yes 3 Yes 4 No 5 No 6 No 7 No]
21. A three month call option premium is Rs. 6 and 3-month put option premium
is Rs. 5. Assume that the exercise price for both the cases is Rs. 220, find out
the net pay-off of call option holder, call option writer, put option holder and
put option writer if the price of the share on the exercise day is
i. Rs. 200
ii. Rs. 210
481 Test Yourself
LEARNING OuTCOMES
After reading this chapter you will be able to
Analyse role of SEBI and Stock Exchange in investor protection
Understand Investor’s grievances and their redressal system
Know SCORES, SEBI’s centralised web based system for inves-
tors’ complaints
Explain Securities Ombudsman scheme
Examine reforms of SEBI in Investor protection
Know amendments in Listing agreement
Understand Prohibition of Insider trading
Explain Regulation of unpublished price sensitive information
Know Investors’ awareness programmes of SEBI, NSE and BSE
Know role of BSE in Investor protection
Know role of NSE in Investor protection
Explain Investors’ Activism in India
INTRODuCTION
Investor protection is one of the crucial elements of a growing securities
market. Investor protection focuses on making sure that investors are fully
informed about their purchases, transactions and the corporate affairs
and updates. Investor protection is a buzz word among the parties of the
482
483 ROLE OF SEBI IN INVESTOR PROTECTION Para 12.1
Investor Grievances
An investor may have a complaint against, a listed company or an inter-
mediary registered with SEBI. In the event of such complaint, the investor
should first approach the concerned company/intermediary against whom
there is a complaint.
Investors who are not satisfied with the response to their grievances received
from the brokers/Depository Participants/listed companies, can lodge
their grievances with the Stock Exchanges or Depositories. The grievance
can be lodged at any of the offices of the BSE/NSE located at Chennai,
Mumbai, Kolkata and New Delhi. In case of unsatisfactory redressal, BSE/
NSE has designated Investor Grievance Redressal Committees (IGRCs), or
Regional Investor Complaints Resolution Committees (RICRC). This forum
acts as a mediator to resolve the claims, disputes and differences between
entities and complainants. Stock Exchanges provide a standard format to
the complainant for referring the matter to IGRC/RICRC. The committee
calls for the parties and acts as a nodal point to resolve the grievances.
If the grievance is still not resolved, an investor can file arbitration under
the Rules, Bye laws and Regulations of the respective Stock Exchange/
Depository.
u Depository Participants
u Registrars to an Issue/Share Transfer Agent
u Mutual Funds
u Portfolio Managers
u Bankers to an Issue
u Collective Investment Schemes
u Credit Rating Agencies
u Custodians of Securities
u Debenture Trustees
u Merchant Bankers
u Underwriters
Qualifications of an Ombudsman
In order to be appointed as an Ombudsman a person shall be -
i. a citizen of India;
ii. of high moral integrity ;
iii. not below the age of forty five years of age; and
iv. either
a. a retired District Judge or qualified to be appointed a District
Judge or
b. having at least ten years experience of service in any regulatory
body or
c. having special knowledge and experience in law, finance, cor-
porate matters, economics, management or administration for
a period not less than ten years, or
d. an office bearer of investors’ association recognised by the
Board having experience in dealing with matters relating to
investor protection for a period not less than 10 years.
Award on Adjudication
In the event the matter is not resolved by mutually acceptable agreement
within a period of one month of the receipt of the complaint the ombuds-
man, shall, based upon the material placed before him and after giving
opportunity of being heard to the parties, give his award in writing or pass
any other directions or orders as he may consider appropriate.
The award on adjudication shall be made by Ombudsman within a period of
three months from the date of the filing of the complaint. The Ombudsman
shall send his award to the parties to the adjudication to perform their
obligations under the award.
Applicability:
The Clause 49 of the Listing Agreement shall be applicable to all listed
companies except:
a. Companies having paid up equity share capital not exceeding Rs. 10
crore and Net Worth not exceeding Rs. 25 crore, as on the last day
of the previous financial year;
b. Companies whose equity share capital is listed exclusively on the
SME Platforms.
Key provisions of listing agreement
(Adapted from NSE, Source: http://www.nseindia.com/content/us/ismr2014_C.pdf)
I. Board of Directors
u The Board of Directors of the company shall have an optimum
combination of executive and non-executive directors with at least
one woman director (applicable w.e.f. April 1, 2015) and not less than
fifty per cent of the Board of Directors comprising non-executive
directors.
u Where the Chairman of the Board is a non-executive director, at least
one-third of the Board should comprise independent directors and in
case the company does not have a regular non-executive Chairman,
at least half of the Board should comprise independent directors.
u A person shall not serve as an independent director in more than
seven listed companies. Further, any person who is serving as a whole
time director in any listed company shall serve as an independent
director in not more than three listed companies.
u The maximum tenure of independent directors shall be in accordance
with the Companies Act, 2013 and clarifications/circulars issued by
the Ministry of Corporate Affairs in this regard, from time to time.
[As per the Companies Act, 2013, an independent director shall hold
office for a term up to five consecutive years on the Board of a com-
pany, but shall be eligible for reappointment on passing of a special
resolution by the company. No independent director shall hold office
for more than two consecutive terms.]
u The company shall establish a vigil mechanism for directors and
employees to report concerns about unethical behaviour, actual or
suspected fraud or violation of the company’s code of conduct or
ethics policy.
493 Reforms brought up by SEBI Para 12.6
before investing. An aware investor will make a right choice and will not
come into trap of dubious and Ponzi schemes. Various institutions, market
regulator and stock exchanges have taken the initiative to conduct inves-
tors’ awareness programmes some of the key initiatives are given below :
1. SEBI
u SEBI is using platforms like TV, radio and print newspapers for
investor education and awareness programmes. It has carried
out campaigns in 13 languages including English, Hindi and
regional languages spoken across India.
u Moreover, SEBI has also decided to tap social media and other
popular internet and mobile platforms to make investors aware
about their rights and to safeguard them against possible frauds.
u In addition, SEBI also conducts investors awareness pro-
grammes through Resource Persons, Investor Associations,
Exchanges, Depositories and various trade bodies.
2. NSDL
u NSDL considers it necessary to create awareness about the
depository processes and reassure the investors about the safety
and benefits of depository system through multiple channels
of communication with investors. Investor Depository Meets
(IDMs) is an important communication channel used for this
purpose.
u It also conducts various Investor awareness programmes.
3. Stock Exchanges
u BSE and NSE, both try to educate the investors by their efforts
like guide to investors, specifying do’s and don’ts, sending in-
vestment alerts, etc.
u In an interesting move by NSE, the stock exchange tied up
with the railways and metro trains to reach out to passengers
expected to travel on these trains as part of their investor
education campaign. The campaign to spread awareness on
crucial do’s and don’ts with respect to online transactions and
NSE traded products — with the motto ‘Soch Kar, Samajh Kar,
Invest Kar’.
4. Ministry of Corporate Affairs
u The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) organises Investor
Awareness Programmes (IAPs) with the objectives of creating
awareness amongst the investors about fraudulent schemes
Para 12.7 Investor protection 502
(d) Amounts in the Investor Protection Fund and Investor Services Fund
of a stock exchange, in the event of de-recognition of such stock ex-
change;
(e) Amounts forfeited for non-fulfilment of obligations specified in reg-
ulation 15B of the SEBI (Buy-back of Securities) Regulations, 1998;
(f) Amounts disgorged under section 11B of the Act or section 12A of
the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 or section 19 of the
Depositories Act, 1996
(g) Interest or other income received out of any investments made from
the Fund;
(h) Such other amount as SEBI may specify in the interest of investors
Utilisation of Fund.
Utilisation of fund
The Fund shall be utilised for the purpose of protection of investors and
promotion of investor education and awareness. The Fund may be used
for the following purposes, namely:-
(a) Educational activities including seminars, training, research and
publications, aimed at investors;
(b) Awareness programmes including through media - print, electronic,
aimed at investors;
(c) Funding investor education and awareness activities of Investors’
Associations recognized by the Board;
(d) Aiding investors’ associations recognized by the Board to undertake
legal proceedings in the interest of investors in securities that are
listed or proposed to be listed;
(e) Refund of the security deposits which are held by stock exchanges
and transferred to the Fund consequent on derecognition of the
stock exchange as mentioned in clause (d) of regulation 4, in case
the concerned companies apply to the Board and fulfil the conditions
for release of the deposit;
(f) Expenses on travel of members of the Committee, who are not officials
of the Board, and special invitees to the meetings of the Committee,
in connection with the work of the Committee;
(g) Salary, allowances and other expenses of office of Ombudsman; and
(h) Such other purposes as may be specified by the SEBI.
Para 12.8 Investor protection 504
Awareness Programs cover topics like Do’s and Don’ts for investors,
Instruments of Investment, Portfolio approach, Mutual funds, Trading,
Clearing and Settlement, Rolling Settlement, Investors’ Protection
Fund, Trade Guarantee Fund, Dematerialisation of Shares, Debt
Market, Investors’ Grievance Redressal system available with SEBI,
BSE & Company Law Board, information on S&P BSE Sensex and
other Indices, Derivatives etc.
(7) Investor Education Programs
BSE Training Institute (BTI) which organises investor education
programs periodically on various subjects like Capital Markets, Fun-
damental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Derivatives, Index Futures and
Options, Debt Market etc. For the Derivatives market, BTI conducts
BCDE i.e. BSE’s certification on Derivative Exchange, a certification
test recognized by the SEBI.
Institutional
Participation
Class Action
(Sec 245)
Electronic Voting
Related Party (Sec 108) (Clause 49 – Listing Agreement)
Transactions (Sec 188) u Minority Shareholder Approval
u Independent directors
Small Shareholder
Director (Sec 151)
(Source: http://www.blog.sanasecurities.com/shareholder-activism-india/)
Class Action Suit - Section 245 of Companies Act, 2013 introduces a
1.
new concept of class action suits which can be initiated by sharehold-
ers and depositors against the company, its directors and auditors.
Small Shareholder Director - Small shareholder means a shareholder
2.
holding shares of nominal value of not more than twenty thousand
rupees or such other sum as may be prescribed. Section 151 of the
Act requires listed companies to appoint at least one director elected
by small shareholders.
Related Party Transaction - Section 188 of the Act has widened the
3.
scope of restricted transactions, including various kinds of transac-
tions which require consent of the board of directors.
Electronic voting - Section 108 provide for electronic voting on
4.
shareholder resolutions, allowing minority stakeholders to have their
say, without coming from distant locations or relying upon postal
ballots. Further, SEBI has amended the listing agreement requiring
Para 12.9 Investor protection 510
Summary
u Investor protection focuses on making sure that investors are fully informed
about their purchases, transactions and the corporate affairs and updates.
u The primary function of SEBI is the protection of the investors’ interest.
u SCORES is a web based centralized grievance redress system of SEBI.
u Insider trading refers to transaction in securities of a public listed company, by
any insider or any connected person, based on any material yet non-published
information, which have the ability to impact on said company’s securities
market price, for their personal advantage.
u SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations, 2015 replaced the 1992
Regulations.
u Various institutions, market regulator and stock exchanges have taken the
initiative to conduct investors’ awareness programmes.
u Investors’ activism is a way in which investors can influence a corporation’s
behaviour, either through its management or otherwise, by exercising their
rights.
Test Yourself
True/False
i. Investors’ protection is about how to handle investors’ complaints.
ii. SEBI is the market regulator of Indian capital market.
iii. Stock exchanges have not taken any initiative for investors’ education and
awareness.
iv. Investors’ grievances are not redressed by the companies themselves.
v. Insider trading refers to use of financial statements information by company
officer.
vi. Regulation of stock market is a pre-requisite to investors’ protection.
vii. SEBI aims to provide for redressal of investors’ grievances.
viii. Trading plan allows insiders possessing unpublished price sensitive informa-
tion to trade in securities in a compliant manner.
[Answers: (i) F (ii) T (iii) F (iv) F (v) F (vi) T (vii) T (viii) T]
Theory Questions
1. What do you mean by Investor Protection? Explain the role of SEBI in this
regard. [Para 12.1]
2. Write a lucid note on the role of SEBI in investors’ protection. What are the
objectives of the constitution of SEBI? (B. Com(H)DU 2011), [Para 12.1]
513 Test Yourself
3. List out some of the grievances of Investors. How can they be addressed?
[Para 12.4]
4. What is SCORES? Explain the procedure to lodge complaint under
SCORES. [Para 12.3]
5. Stock exchanges play an important role in safeguarding investors. Discuss
the statement mentioning the measures adopted by BSE and NSE in this
regard. [Para 12.8]
6. What are the important amendments made by SEBI and Companies Act,
2013 in listing agreement? Explain in brief. [Para 12.6.1]
7. What are the types of investors’ grievances dealt by SEBI?
(B. Com (H)DU 2008) [Para 12.2]
8. Write short notes on:
a. Investor Protection (B. Com (H)DU 2012, 2013) [Para 12.1]
b. SCORES [Para 12.3]
c. Investor Education and Protection Fund [Para 12.7.1]
d. Insider Trading (B. Com (H) DU 2012, 2013) [Para 12.5.2]
e. Investors’ activism [Para 12.9]
f. Unpublished price sensitive information [Para 12.6.3]
g. Uses for SEBI Investor Protection and Education Fund [Para 12.7.1]
h. Securities Ombudsman Scheme [Para 12.4]
9. “Investors’ activism keeps companies in check”. Shed some light on the above
statement by referring to some Indian corporate examples. [Para 12.9]
10. What do you mean by Securities Ombudsman? Under what circumstances
an investor can lodge a complaint with Securities Ombudsman?
(B. Com(H)DU 2010) [Para 12.4]
11. What do you mean by Insider Trading? Who is an insider as per SEBI Guide-
lines?
(B. Com(H)DU 2009) [Para 12.6.2]
12. “An investor should be aware about his rights and responsibilities before
investing”. Do you agree? Elaborate. [Paras 12.1, 12.2]
13. Define the terms ‘unpublished price sensitive information’ and ‘connected
person’ as per SEBI Regulations on Insider Trading ? [Para 12.6.3]
14. What are the disclosure requirements as per SEBI Regulations on Insider
Trading? [Para 12.6.3]
B.Com. (Hons.) 2015
PAPER : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT
515
B.Com. (Hons.) 2015 Paper : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT 516
Return, RA=11.8%
Standard deviation of A = ∑ P (r a − r a )2 = 22.56 = 4.75%
State of Probability Return Expected (RB – RB) (RB – RB)2 P ×(RB – RB)2
Economy (P) on B (%) Return (RB)
(RB) (P × RB)
Sol.
Year Expected Dividend (Rs.) (A) PVF16%,n (ke) Present value of Dividend
1 2(1.10) = 2.20 0.862 1.90
2 2.2(1.10) = 2.42 0.743 1.80
3 2.42(1.08) = 2.61 0.641 1.67
4 2.61 (1.10) = 2.87 0.552 1.58
Total 6.95
Price of share at the end of year fourth year:
D5 = 2.87(1 + 0.08) = ` 3.0996 ...where ke = Expected rate of
return or cost of
D5
P4 = equity
(
ke − g ) g = Growth rate
` 3.0996
P 4 = 0.16 − 0.08 = ` 38.745
Intrinsic Value of Share = PV of P4 +PV of Dividends
P0 (Present value) = ` 38.745 × PVR(16%,4) + ` 6.95
= ` 38.745 × 0.552 + ` 6.95 = ` 28.34
The share should not be purchased because the intrinsic value of share is
less than the market price of ` 30.
Q. 3. (a) Discuss various kinds of risks involved in bond investment. 5
Ans. Chapter 4 [Para 4.8]
(b) The bonds of XYZ Ltd. are currently available at a price of ` 750 (Face
value = ` 1,000). It has coupon rate of 6.5% and maturity period of 5 years.
Find the yield to maturity of the bond. If the bond is callable at ` 1,100 at
the end of 3 years from now, find the yield to call of the bond. 10
Sol. Approximate Yield to Maturity (YTM)
rV − P
1+
= n
rV + P
2
1, 000 − 750
`65 +
= 5
1, 000 + 750
2
` 65 +` 50 ` 115
= =
`875 ` 875 = 0.1314 or 13.14%
519 B.Com. (Hons.) 2015 Paper : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT
1,100 - 750
` 65 +
= 3
1,100 + 750
2
` 65 + 116.67 181.67
= = = 0.1964 = 19.64%
925 925
The current price of ` 150 offers good opportunity for investment to only
C. A & B cannot get the expected returns as the intrinsic value is lower
than ` 150.
Q. 4. (a) Mr. A has ` 1,00,000 for investment on which he wants to earn
return of 16%. He has two sources available for investment debentures
offering return of 15% and equity shares offering return of 20%. Find the
amount invested in each security to achieve the target rate of return. 5
Sol. Let the fund invested in debentures be w per cent & (1-w) per cent
equity shares
So, w × 0.15 + (1-w) 0.20=0.16 ⇒ 0.15w + 0.20 - 0.20w = 0.16
0.04
⇒ 0.05x = 0.20 - 0.16 = 0.04 ⇒w= = 0.8 or 80%
0.05
Mr. A should invest 80% of ` 1,00,000, i.e., ` 80,000 in debentures and 20%
of ` 1,00,000, i.e. ` 20,000 in equity shares to earn a total return of 16%.
(b) If the risk free return is 5% and return on Sensex is 15% with a risk of
8%, find the proportion of funds to be invested in each of the above two
alternatives so as to have a portfolio with a return of 13%. Also find the
risk of the portfolio so formed. 10
Sol. Let w be the amount invested in risk-free asset and rest (1-w) amount
in Market Index.
⇒ w × 0.05 + (1 -w)0.15 = 0.13 ⇒ 0.05w + 0.15 - 0.15w = 0.13
⇒ - 0.10w = -0.02
0.02
⇒w= = 0.2 or 20%
0.10
∴ 20% of the funds should be invested in risk-free asset and 80% in market
index.
Risk of the Port Folio (sp)
For this we use capital market ...where Rp = Return of Portfolio
line (CML) Rf = Risk of Return
σp Rm = Return on Sensex (market index)
Rp = Rf + (Rm - Rf) ×
σm σm = Risk of market
σp = Risk of portfolio
σp
⇒ 0.13 = 0.05 + (0.15 - 0.05) ×
0.08
σp
⇒ 0.13 - 0.05 = 0.10 × ⇒ 0.08 × 0.08 = 0.10 × σp
0.08
0.0064
⇒ σ p = = 0.064 or 6.4%
0.10
B.Com. (Hons.) 2015 Paper : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT 522
Hence the expected return of the securities A, B, C & D are 2.95%, 3.90%,
3.10% and 2.45% respectively
Portfolio return if weight are equal is calculated as under :
WA = WB = WC = WD = 0.25 (i.e. 25% in each security)
Hence E (RP) = Wa r a + WB r B + WC rC + WD rD
= 0.25 (2.95) + 0.25 (3.90) + 0.25 (3.10) + 0.25 (2.45)
= 3.10%
(c) A mutual fund has NAV of ` 18 per unit in the beginning of the period
and ` 22 per unit at the end of the period. It has incurred expense at the
rate of ` 0.80 per unit. Find the expense ratio. 5
naV at the beginning + naV at the end
Sol. Average of NAV =
2
523 B.Com. (Hons.) 2015 Paper : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT
` (18 + 22) ` 40
= = = ` 20
2 2
expenses
Expense Ratio = × 100
average of naV
0.80
Therefore, Expense Ratio = × 100 = 4%
` 20
Q. 5. Write short notes on any three of the following: 15
(i) Insider trading
Ans : Chapter 2 [Para 2.6.7]
(ii) Factors affecting investment
Ans : Chapter 1 [Para 1.3.1]
(iii) Participants of securities market
Ans : Chapter 2 [Para 2.1.1]
(iv) Risk-return trade off.
Ans : Chapter 1 [Para 1.5]
Or
(a) The following information is given in respect of a security:
Beta of security 0.8
Return on risk free asset 5%
Return on market index 18%
(i) Find out the expected return of the security.
(ii) If the other security has an expected return of 22%, what must be its
beta.
Sol. (i) using CAPM Ri = Rf + β ...where Ri = Return on Security
(Rm - Rf)
Rf = Return of Risk free asset i.e., 5%
Ri - 0.05 + 0.8(0.18 - 0.05)
Rm = Return on Market Index i.e., 18%
= 0.05 + 0.8(0.13)
β = Coefficient of Risk of security i.e., 0.8
= 0.05 + 0.104
= 0.154 or 15.4%
0.17 = β (0.13)
0.17
β= = 1.307
0.13
(b) (i) An investor purchased a bond at a price of ` 900 with ` 100 as cou-
pon payment and sold it at ` 1,000. What is his holding period return? 5
(ii) If the bond is sold for ` 750 after receiving ` 100 as coupon payment,
then what is the holding period return.
100 + (1000 − 900)
Sol. (i) HPR =
900
= 0.2222 or 22.22%
100 (750 − 900)
(ii) HPR =
900
= 0.0555 or – 5.55%
B.Com (TYUP) 2016
PAPER : SECURITY ANALYSIS &
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
525
B.Com. (tyup) 2016 Paper : Security analysis & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 526
= 18.4 + 10 − 26
= 2.4
= 1.55 %
Hence risk will be reduced if the financial analyst invests equal amounts in
y and z. This is because the covariance and hence coefficient of correlation
between them is negative.
Or
(a) Write short notes on any two of the following :
(i) Callable and Putable bonds.
(ii) Current Yield and Holding Period Rate of Return (HPRR).
(iii) Deep discount bonds. 6
Ans.
(a) (i) See para 4.2
(ii) See para 4.7
(iii) See para 4.2
527 B.Com. (tyup) 2016 Paper : Security analysis & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Solution :
(b) We are given that g = 21 % for 5 years thereafter 10% indefinitely
D0 = ` 3.20
Required rate of Return (Ke) = 20%
Present market price = ` 57
We need to calculate fair price of the Share
Dividend in year 1 = D0 (1+g)
= 3.20 (1+0.21)
= 3.872
Similarly we can calculate D2, D3, D4, & D5
Year Div PVF20% N P.V. of Div
1. 3.872 0.833 3.22
2 4.685 0.694 3.25
3 5.668 0.579 3.28
4 6.859 0.482 3.31
5 8.299 0.402 3.34
Total 16.4
D6 = 8.299 (1 + 0.10)
= 9.129
9.129
Fair price of Share = 16.4 + × 0.402
0.20 − 0.10
= 16.4 + (91.29 × 0.402)
= 53.1
So the fair price of the share is ` 53.10
Since current market price is higher, the investors should not buy this stock.
Or
(a) Differentiate between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analy-
sis. 6
Ans. See para 6.2
(b) PQR Ltd. has the following details :
Return On Equity (ROE) = 15%
Expected Earning Per Share (EPS) = ` 5
Expected Dividend Per Share (DPS) = ` 2
531 B.Com. (tyup) 2016 Paper : Security analysis & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Solution :
(b)
Portfolio AR(%) S.D(%) Correlation Sharpe Ranking Treynor Ranking
Cogg of mkt. β Index as per index as per
& portfolio sharp Treynor
A 18 27 0.8 1.8 0.333 2 5 3
B 14 18 0.6 0.9 0.277 3 5.55 2
C 15 8 0.9 0.6 0.750 1 10 1
Market return = 15% Market S.D = 12% r f = 9%
We know that
S.D of Security
β = Correlation Coefficient ×
S.D of market
So 27
βa = 0.8 × = 1.8
12
18
βB = 0.6 × = 0.9
12
8
βC = 0.9 × = 0.6
12
ar − r f
Sharpe Index =
σp
ar − r f
Treynor Index = βp
These two indices give different results regarding ranking because Sharpe
index uses total risk while Treynor’s index considers only systematic risk.
Or
(a) Differentiate between Futures and Options. 6
Ans. See para 11.6
(b) (i) John paid a premium of ` 5 per share for a 6-month Call
Option contract (i.e. total premium of ` 500 for 100 shares)
of Mohana Corporation. At the time of purchase. Mohana’s
share price was ` 57 per share and the Exercise Price of the
Call Option was ` 56.
(1) Determine John’s profit or loss if, when the Option is
exercised. Mohana’s share price is ` 53.
(2) What is John’s profit or loss if, when the Option is ex-
ercised, Mohana’s share price is ` 63 ?
533 B.Com. (tyup) 2016 Paper : Security analysis & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
P Q
Expected Return 13% 16%
Risk in terms of Standard Deviation 4% 7%
If a portfolio with 30% of P and 70% of Q is formed, find the :
(i) Expected return of the portfolio
(ii) Minimum risk of the portfolio
(iii) Maximum risk of the portfolio
Solution :
(b)
(i) e ( r p ) = 0.3 × 13 + 0.70 × 16
= 3.9 + 11.2
= 15.1%
(ii) Minimum Risk of Portfolio is when r = -1
σp
CML = r f + r m − r f
σm
30
Exp. Return of Portfolio A as per CML = 7 + 18 − 7
10
= 40%
Similarly expected returns are calculated for B & C. An efficiently priced
portfolio has Actual return same as expected return as per CML.
Hence all the portfolios A, B & C are inefficiently priced. While A & C are
overpriced, B is underpriced in the market.
B.Com. (Hons.) 2017
PAPER : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT
SEMESTER : VI
Duration : 3 Hours Maximum Marks : 75
1. (a) define Investment. What factors should an investor consider while
making an investment decision ? 5
Ans. See Paras 1.1 & 1.3
(b) mr. vinayak purchased the share of on-line ltd. for ` 50 five years ago.
during the last five years, the share exhibited the following average price
and the company declared for the following dividend : 10
Year Price Dividend
(in `) (in `)
1 70 5
2 76 6
3 80 6
4 104 7
5 120 8
Find average return and risk of the investor using the data given above.
Or
(c) distinguish between (any two) : 5
(i) expected return and realized return
(ii) Beta and standard deviation
(iii) senseX and nIFtY.
(d) mr. abhinav makes an investment at ` 100. the year-end price of this
investment under different market conditions and their probabilities are
given below : 10
536
537 B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment
If Mr. Ashutosh’s income is taxed @ 30% and capital gain is taxed @ 10%,
find the post-tax Yield to Maturity from these bonds using approximation
method. Which bond should be selected by Mr. Ashutosh ? 10
3. (a) Define credit rating. Do you think that high credit rating is a
recommendation to buy the bond ? 5
Ans. See Para 4.11
(b) The following information is available for S Ltd. for the year 2014-15 :
10
Annual turnover ` 1,00,00,000
Profit 30%
Equity Share Capital (FV = ` 10) ` 10,00,000
Capital Reserve ` 5,00,000
12% Preference Share Capital ` 15,00,000
13% Long-term Loan ` 12,00,000
12% Debentures ` 10,00,000
Tax Rate 30%
Dividend payout ratio 50%
Price Earning (PE) ratio 15
Find Earning Per Share (EPS), Dividend Per Share (DPS), Market Price,
Earning Yield and Dividend Yield.
Or
(c) Explain how Point and Figure Chart (PFC) and Candlestick Chart are
used by technical analysts to predict future behaviour of prices. 5
Ans. See Para 6.4
(d) Rajan Ltd. has just paid a dividend of ` 2 per share. In view of the rapid
growth of the company, the dividend is expected to grow at 20% p.a. for
the next three years. Subsequently, the earnings are expected to grow at
only 7% p.a. infinitely. With the expected rate of return at 22%, find out the
price an investor should be ready to pay for the share. 10
4. (a) “Capital Market Line shows all the combinations of risk-free investment
and the Market Portfolio.” Explain in the light of this statement meaning
and features of Capital Market Line (CML). 5
Ans. See Para 9.3
(b) From the data given below, find which of the following securities is
overpriced/underpriced/correctly priced using SML equation or CAPM :
10
539 B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment
Avg. Return =
∑r ⇒ Average Return (based on AM) =
1.42
n 5
= 0.284 or 28.4%
d1 + (P1 − P0 )
Note 1 Return =
P0
∑ (r )
2
−r
s = i
0.0973
s=
5
s = 0.14 or 14%
(in term S.D)
Ans. 1(d)
Condition Year End price Probabilities Purchase (Ri) Return PiRi
Price
Bullish 160 0.30 100 160 - 100/100 0.18
= 0.60
Normal 120 0.30 100 120 - 100/100 0.06
= 0.20
Bearish 80 0.40 100 80 - 100/100 -0.08
= - 0.20
Expected Return = SPiRi
0.18 + 0.06 - 0.08
16%
Calculation of Risk
∑ P (r )
2
s= i i −r
1 + 0.16
= -1
1 + 0.06
1.16
-1 ⇒ 9.43%
1.06
Ans. 2(b)
Face Value = ` 1000, Market Price = ` 879
Coupon Rate = 8%, Investor Yield = 10%
Time to Maturity = 4 years
I+
(rv − P)
n
YTM =
(rv + P)
z
Annual Interest Amount (I) = ` 80
Rv = 1000 P = ` 879, N = 4
80 +
(1000 − 879)
4
YTM =
(1000 + 879)
2
80 + 30.25
YTM =
939.5
110.25
YTM = ⇒ 11.73%
939.5
Investment Decision on the basis of YTM
YTM > Required Rate of Return
11.73 > 10%
Investor must buy this Bond
Intrinsic Value of Bond
I× PVAF (Rd, N) + RV + PVF (Rd, N)
80×PVAF(10%, 4) + 1000 × PVF(10%, 4)
80(3.170) + 1000(0.683)
253.6 + 683
543 B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment
I+
(rv − P)
n
YTM =
(rv + P)
z
84 +
(270) 70 +
(360)
10 7
YTM1 = YTM2 =
270 360
2 2
111 121.5
YTM1 = YTM2 =
135 180
YTM1 = 82.2% YTM2 = 67.5%
Select Bond A
Ans. 3(b)
Sales 10,00,000
Operating Profit (EBIT) 30% of sales
EBIT = 30,00,000
Less Interest on 13% Loan (1,56,000)
B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment 544
3.456 (1.07)
P3 = 0.22 − 0.07
3.6915
P3 = ⇒ P3 = 24.61
0.15
P.v. of P3 = P3 × PVF (22%, 3)
24.61 × 0.551
545 B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment
` 13.56 2
Add 1 & 2
Price of share 19.36
CAPM = RF + (RM - RF)b
Ans. 5(b)
Security b Actual Return Expected Return Underprice/
CAPM[E(Ri)] Overprice
A 1.2 20 6 + (15 - 6) 1.2 = 16.8 Underpriced
B 1 15 6 + (15 - 6) 1 = 15 Correctly priced
C 1.6 22 6 + (15 - 6) 1.6 = 20.4 Underpriced
D 2.0 24 6 + (15 - 6) 2 = 24 Correctly priced
E 0.5 8 6 + (15 - 6) 0.5 = 10.5 Overpriced
In case of overprice, Security lie below SML line
In case of underprice, Security lies above SML
In case of correctly price, it lies on SML line
Underpriced SML
E(Ri) A C
D
B
E (overpriced)
RF
Ans. 5(d)
A B
Variance s2 13 15
Expected Return 15% 18%
Covariance = 3
W1 = 0.70, W2 = 0.30
B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment 546
Ri(%) Wi WiRi
15 0.70 10.5
18 0.30 5.4
Portfolio Return 15.9
RP = SWiRi
Calculation of Portfolio Risk
2 2 2 2
sP = W1 σ1 + W2 σ 2 + 2W1W2 Cov.12
sP = 3
Ans. (e)
Share price on expiry day 24 26 32 35
Option Exercise No No Yes Yes
Inflow (Strike price) - - 29 29
Inflow (Premium) 3 3 3 3
Total inflow 3 3 32 32
Outflow (Share price) - - 32 35
Net pay off (`) 3 3 Nil -3
At Market price of ` 32, Net pay off will be Nil
Ans. 5(c)
NIFTY future on date of transaction = 2,80,000/50
5600
Thus, it decreases by 5600 - 5512 = 88 points Loss
(5600 - 5512) × 50 + 1000 = ` 5400
In case, investor sold the future, his profit would be:
Profit = 88 × 50 - 1000 = ` 3400
Ans. (f)
NAV Calculation
net asset value of Fund
= no. of units
547 B.Com. (Hons.) 2017 Paper : Fundamentals of Investment
21.0125
22.60%
B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017
PAPER XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF
INVESTMENT (C-305)
2. (a) What do you mean by credit rating? How is credit rating relevant for
investors? 5
Ans. See Para 4.11
(b) The following information is given regarding a bond SRM Ltd.:
Face Value Rs. 1,000
Coupon Rate 12%
Maturity 5 years
Redemption Value Rs. 1,100
Compute:
(i) The value of the bond when the opportunity cost of capital is 14%.
5
(ii) What would be its yield to maturity if the current market price of
this bond is Rs. 97? 5
Or
(a) What is bond yield? Explain the factors affecting bond yield.
5
Ans. See Para 4.7
(b) One of your friends holds bonds having face value of Rs. 1,000 which
will be redeemed over a period of 5 years in five equal annual instal-
ments. The bond carries a coupon interest rate of 10%. Find the value
at which you would like to buy the bonds if your expected rate of
return is 12%. 10
3. (a) What is Economy-Industry-Company (EIC) Approach? Explain the
key factors in Industry Analysis. 6
Ans. See Para 5.3
(b) Vipra Ltd. has paid a dividend of Rs. 3 per share on the face value of
Rs. 10. The following information is given below:
Current market price per share 170
Growth rate 12%
Beta coefficient of the share 1.8
Market return 17%
Risk free rate of return 12%
Compute the value of the share based on CAPM. 9
Or
(a) Explain ‘Elliott Wave Theory’. 6
B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT (C-305) 550
(b) The following information is available in respect of FOI Ltd. for the
year 2014-15:
Annual Turnover ` 60,00,000
Operating Profits 20%
Equity Share Capital (Rs. 10 each) ` 25,00,000
Capital Reserve ` 6,00,000
12% Preference Share Capital ` 20,00,000
10% Long Term Loan ` 8,00,000
12% Debentures ` 12,00,000
Tax Rate 30%
Dividend Payout Ratio 60%
Price-Earning Ratio 27
Find out:
(i) Earning per equity share
(ii) Dividend per equity share
(iii) Market price of the equity share
(iv) Dividend yield on equity share. 9
4. (a) What do you mean by options? Distinguish between American
Options and European Options. 5
Ans. See Para 11.6
(b) Mr. Zahir has selected 2 securities, X and Y, for his portfolio. The
following information is provided by him:
Security Expected Return Standard Deviation
X 12% 5%
Y 18% 7%
If he invested 40% of his fund in X and 60% in Y, find the return of portfolio.
Also, find the maximum and minimum risk of such a portfolio. 10
Or
(a) “Mutual fund is an indirect investment.” Examine it in the light of
features of mutual funds. 5
Ans. See Para 10.4
(b) A three months call option premium of SMS Ltd. is Rs. 2.50 and 3
months put option premium is Rs. 4. Assume that the exercise price
for both the cases is Rs. 60.
551 B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT (C-305)
Find out the net payoff of call option buyer, call option writer, put option
buyer as well as put option writer along with the graph when spot price of
the share on the exercise day is 56, 58, 60, 63 and 65. 10
5. Answer any three of the following:
(a) Write a short note on ‘Role of Stock Exchanges in Investor Protection’.
Ans. See Para 12.2
(b) Write a short note on ‘Depository System’.
Ans. See Para 2.6.2
(c) Explain ‘Bar Chart’ and ‘Candlestick Chart’.
Ans. See Para 6.4
(d) Explain the structure of a mutual fund.
Ans. See Para 10.3
(e) Explain various forms of Efficient Market Hypothesis. 5×3
Ans. See Para 7.3
Ans. 2(b)
Bharat Ltd. India Ltd
Expected Return 14% 22%
Standard Deviation 7% 10%
W1 = 0.40 W2 = 0.60
Calculation of Portfolio Return
Ri Wi RiWi
Bharat Ltd. 14 0.40 5.6
India Ltd. 22 0.60 13.2
Portfolio Return SWiRi = 18.8%
I Calculation of Portfolio Risk if r = +1
2 2 2 2
sP = W1 σ1 + W2 σ 2 + 2W1W2 r12 σ1σ 2
II if r = 0
sP = 7.84 + 36
s = 6.62%
P
III If r = -1
(Risk)
Calculation of Standard Deviation of X & Y
State pi Rx pi(Rx - 10.3)2 Ry pi(Ry - 9.4)2
Bearish 0.3 -10 0.3(-20.3)2 = 123.63 -20 0.3(-29.4)2 = 259.3
Normal 0.3 15 0.3(4.7)2
= 6.620 18 0.3(8.6) 2
= 22.2
Bullish 0.4 22 0.4(11.7) 2
= 54.75 25 0.4(15.6) 2
= 97.34
Var x 185 Var y = 378.84
sx = 13.60 sy 19.46
Ans. 2(b)
Face Value = ` 1,000
Coupon Rate = 12%
(N) Maturity = 5 years
Redemption Value = ` 1100
I × PVAF(Rd, N) + RV × PVF(Rd, N)
120 × PVAF(14%, 5) + 1100 × PVF(14%, 5)
120(3.433) + 1100(0.519)
412 + 570
553 B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT (C-305)
I+
(rV − P)
(ii) YTM = N
(rV + P)
2
120 +
(1100 − 97)
YTM = 5
(1100 + 97)
2
120 + 200.6
YTM =
598.5
YTM = 53.56 > cost of Capital of 14%
Investor must buy this bond.
Or
Ans. (b)
Face Value = ` 1000
Maturity = 5 years
Redeem in 5 equal instalments
Coupon Rate = 10%
expected Rate of Return = 12%
Year Coupon Payment + Redemption in 5 equal PVF(12%, n) PV
instalments
1 100 + 200 = 300 0.893 268
2 80 + 200 = 280 0.797 223
3 60 + 200 = 260 0.712 185
4 40 + 200 = 240 0.636 152
5 20 + 200 = 220 0.567 125
Intrinsic Value of Bond = 953
Ans. 3(b)
D0 = ` 3, Face Value = ` 10
Current Market price = 170 g = 12%
b = 1.8 Market Return (RM) = 17%
RF = 12%
ke (CAPM) = RF + (RM - RF)b
= 12 + (17 - 12)(1.8)
B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT (C-305) 554
= 12 + 9
ke = 21%
D1 D (1 + 9)
P0 = = P0 = 0
ke − g Ke − 9
3 (1 + 0.12)
P0 =
0.21 − 0.12
3.36
P0 =
0.09
P0 = 37.3 < Current Market Price
Investor must not buy this bond
Or
Ans. (b)
Annual Turnover or Sales 60,00,000
Operating profit (20% of Sales) 12,00,000
Less(-) Interest on Long Term Loan (80,000)
Less(-) Interest on Debentures (1,44,000)
EBT 9,76,000
Less (-) Tax 30% 2,92,800
EAT 6,83,200
Less Preference Dividend (2,40,000)
Earning to equity 4,43,200
No. of equity shares 2,50,000
EPS 1.773
DPS = .60 (EPS) = 1.063
Market price of equity = PE Ratio × EPS
= 27 × 1.77
M.P. = 47.8
Dividend Yield = DPS/Market price
1.063
=
47.8
= 0.022
555 B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT (C-305)
Ans. 4(b)
Calculation of Portfolio Return
Security Ri Wi RiWi
X 12 0.4 4.8
Y 18 0.6 10.8
RP SWiRi = 15.6
sx = 5
sy = 7
Calculation of Portfolio Risk if r = + 1 [Max Risk]
2 2 2 2
sP = W1 σ1 + W2 σ 2 + 2W1W2 r12 σ1σ 2
sP = 38.44
sP = 6.2
If r = -1 [Minimum Risk]
sP = 2.2
Ans. (b)
Net payoff for call Option Holder
Share price on Exercise Day 56 58 60 63 65
Option Exercise No No No Yes Yes
Outflow (Strike price) - - - 60 60
Premium paid 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
Total Outflow - - - - 62.50 - 62.50
Less Inflow - - - 63 65
Net pay off -2.50 -2.50 -2.50 0.50 2.50
Net payoff from call option writer
Share price at Expiry 56 58 60 63 65
Option Exercise No No No Yes Yes
B.Com. (H)/III/NS 2017 Paper XX : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT (C-305) 556
1. (a) What do you mean by Insider Trading? Who is an insider as per SEBI
Regulations? (4)
Ans. See para 2.6.7
(b) An investor has to choose from two securities. They have different rates
of return but the probability is same. Suggest in which security he should
invest. (11)
Probability Return (X) Return (Y)
0.1 -10 12
0.2 10 14
0.3 20 18
0.4 25 20
Or
(a) What do you mean by unfair trade practice? When is a trade practice
considered as fraudulent? (4)
(b) An investor purchases an equity share at a price of ` 100. Its expected
year end price and dividend with relevant probabilities are given below:
(11)
Probability Share Price Dividend
0.1 135 8
0.2 125 5
0.4 110 3
557
B.COM (HON.) 2018 SEM. VI : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT 558
E(RX) = ∑P R
i X
= 17%
E(RY) = ∑P Ri Y = 17.4%
Risk
σ X = ∑Pi (RX − R X )2 = 111 = 10.54%
Since the expected return of the two securities is not equal, we cannot use
standard deviation to compare their risk. We, would rather use a relative
measure of risk, i.e., Coefficient of Variation to draw meaningful comparisons.
Coefficient of Variation
10.54
C .V .X = = 0.62
17
2.84
C .V .Y = = 0.16
17.4
Hence Security Y is preferred as it has lower Coefficient of variation than
security X. It has lower risk per unit of return generated.
561 B.COM (HON.) 2018 SEM. VI : FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTMENT
Or
Ans. 1(b) Purchase Price = ` 100
Total Return (Ri)(%) = (Div + Cap Gain)/Purchase Price*100
Prob Share Divi- Capital (Ri) (%) Pi* Ri Pi*(Ri - Ri)2
(Pi) Price dend Gain
0.1 135 8 35 43 4.3 70.756
0.2 125 5 25 30 6 36.992
0.4 110 3 10 13 5.2 4.624
0.2 105 2 5 7 1.4 17.672
0.1 95 Nil -5 -5 -0.5 45.796
Return = ∑P R
i i = 16.4%
4.8*(1 + g)
72 =
0.12 − g
g = 5%
D4 4.8*(1 + 0.05)4
P3 = = = ` 83.67
Ke − g 0.12 − 0.05
σp = σ2A * w A2 + σ2B * w B2 + 2* σA σ B * w Aw A * r
Pi * [(Rm-
Situation (Pi) RA (%) Rm (%) Pi * RA Pi * Rm
E(Rm)]2
Recession 0.2 6 10 1.2 2 13.778
Average 0.4 15 16 6 6.4 2.116
Good 0.3 27 22 8.1 6.6 4.107
Boom 0.1 30 29 3 2.9 11.449
Total 18.3 17.9 31.45
E(RA) = 18.3%
E(Rm) = 17.9%
Market Variance = 31.45 sq. %
Covariance of Market and Share A
565
B.Com 2018 SEM. VI : fundamentals of investment 566
Or
(a) “Futures are improves versions of forward contracts.” Explain the state-
ment, clearly distinguishing between forwards and futures contracts. (5)
Ans. : See paras 11.5, 11.5.2
(b) A 3 months call option is available at a premium of ` 2 per share. Find
out the net pay-off of the option holder as well as the option writer if:
(10)
i. The exercise price is ` 50
ii. The spot price of the share on the exercise day is ` 46, ` 50, ` 52,
` 54, ` 58
5. (a) “In every investment decision, there is an inherent risk-return trade-
off.” Explain. (5)
Ans. : See para 1.5
(b) The earnings of Relaxo Ltd. are expected to grow at the rate of 6% p.a.
The dividend expected on Relaxo’s share a year hence is ` 2. The dividends
are expected to grow at 6% forever. At what price should this share be sold
to an investor having a required rate of return 14%? (5)
(c) A company has Zero COUPON Bond for ` 520 to be redeemed at ` 1000
after 5 years. Is it a worthwhile investment for an investor having a required
rate of return of 16%? (5)
Or
(a) Write short notes on any two: (5,5)
i. Insider trading
ii. SENSEX
iii. Random Walk Theory
iv. SEBI
Ans. : See paras 2.6.7, 2.3, 7.1, 2.4
(b) Calculate NAV per unit of a mutual fund scheme when the following
information is provided: (5)
Cash balance 400000
Bank balance 200000
10% debentures 1000000
Equity shares (FV = ` 100) 1000000
Accrued expenses 100000
Number of units outstanding 200000
569 B.Com 2018 SEM. VI : fundamentals of investment
10% Debentures and Equity shares are currently trading in the market at
90% and 120% respectively.
Ans. : 1(b)
Pi RX RY PiRX PiRY Pi(Rx - Rx)2 Pi(Ry - Ry)2
E(RX) = ∑P R
i X= 15%
E(RY) = ∑P Ri Y = 20%
Risk
σY = ∑ Pi (RY − RY )2 = 95 = 9.75%
Since the expected return of the two securities is not equal, we cannot use
standard deviation to compare their risk. We, would rather use a relative
measure of risk, i.e., Coefficient of Variation to draw meaningful comparisons.
Coefficient of Variation
13.23
C .V .X = = 0.88
15
9.75
C .V .Y = = 0.49
20
Hence Security Y is preferred as it has lower Coefficient of variation than
security X. It has lower risk per unit of return generated.
Or
Ans. : 1(b)(i) Return (Rp) = ∑PW i i = 0.6*0.14+0.4*0.18 = 0.156 or 15.6%
(ii) σp = σ A2 * w A2 + σ B2 * w B2 + 2 * σ Aσ B * w Aw A * r
(iii) σp = σ A2 * w A2 + σ B2 * w B2 + 2 * σ Aσ B * w Aw A * r
1081.1 − 1050
By interpolation, YTM = 9 + × (10 − 9) = 9.39%
1081.1 − 999.6
1080.3 − 1050
By interpolation, YTM = 8 + × (9 − 8) = 8.73%
1080.3 − 1039
Or
Ans.: 2(b)(i) P0 = Int * PVAFK%,n + RV * PVFK%,n
= 80 * PVAF10%,5 + 1000 * PVF10%,5
= 80*3.791 + 1000*0.621 = ` 924.28
Since MP (1200) > Intrinsic Value (924.28), so it is a underpriced bond.
Investor should buy it.
571 B.Com 2018 SEM. VI : fundamentals of investment
Ans. : 4(b)
Security Beta CAPM Return Estimated Remarks
returns
A 1.00 = 0.07+(0.10-0.07)*1 = 10% 11% Underpriced
B 1.25 = 0.07+(0.10-0.07)*1.25 = 10.75% 10% Overpriced
C 1.70 = 0.07+(0.10-0.07)*1.7 = 12.1% 12% Overpriced
D 1.50 = 0.07+(0.10-0.07)*1.5 = 11.5% 11.5% Fairly priced
E 1.60 = 0.07+(0.10-0.07)*1.6 = 11.8% 12% Underpriced
Or
Ans.: 4(b) Pay-off of Call Option Writer
Share price 46 50 52 54 58
Option exercise No No Yes Yes Yes
Inflow (strike price) - - 50 50 50
Inflow (premium) 2 2 2 2 2
Total inflow 2 2 52 54 58
Outflows (share price) - - 52 54 58
Net pay-off 2 2 0 -2 -6
Pay-off of Call Option Holder
Share price 46 50 52 54 58
Option exercise No No Yes Yes Yes
Outflow (strike price) - - 50 50 50
Outflow (premium) 2 2 2 2 2
Total Outflow 2 2 52 54 58
Inflows (share price) - - 52 54 58
Net pay-off -2 -2 0 2 6
Ans. : 5(b) D1 = ` 2 g = 6 % Ke = 14%
d1 2
P0 = = = ` 25 per share
Ke − g 0.14 − 0.06
RV
Ans.: 5(c) P0 =
(1 + K d )
n
1000
Intrinsic Value = = ` 476.11
(1 + 0.16 )
5
573 B.Com 2018 SEM. VI : fundamentals of investment
574
575 B.COM (HON.) 2019 SEM. VI : fundamentals of investment
(a) What do you mean by Systematic Investment Plan? What are its ben-
efits? (4)
Ans.: See para 10.6
(b) Mr. A has bought call and put options both. Each contract is of 100
shares. He has purchased one 3-months call with a strike price of Rs. 54
and Rs. 2 as premium. He has purchased a 3-months put option with a
strike price of Rs. 50 and Rs. 1 as premium. Find out his position and total
profit or loss if the stock price on expiration date is (i) Rs. 48, (ii) Rs 58.
(11)
Ans.: 1 (b)
Ri PX PY PiRX PiRY Pi (RX − RX )2 Pi (RY − RY )2
Since the expected return of the two securities is not equal, we cannot use
standard deviation to compare their risk. We, would rather use a relative
measure of risk, i.e., Coefficient of Variation to draw meaningful comparisons.
Coefficient of Variation
7.46
C .V .X = = 0.81
9.2
6.45
C .V .Y = = 0.52
12.5
Hence Security Y is preferred as it has lower Coefficient of variation than
security X. It has lower risk per unit of return generated.
OR
B.COM (HON.) 2019 SEM. VI : fundamentals of investment 578
9.6×(1 + g)
144 =
0.12 − g
g = 5%
d3 9.6*(1 + 0.05)3
P2 = = Rs. 158.76
Ke − g
= 0.12 − 0.05
Ans.: 4 (b) (i) A - 40%, B - 60%
Return (Rp) = ∑PiWi = 0.4×12+0.6×15 = 13.8%
σp = σ 2A ×w A2 + σ 2B ×w B2 + 2×σ A σ B ×w Aw A ×r
2 2 2 2
σp = σ A ×w A + σ B ×w B + 2×σ A σ B ×w Aw A ×r
2 2 2 2
= 16 ×0.6 + 20 ×0.4 + 2×16×20×0.6×0.4×0.8
Security A B C D E
Beta 1.00 1.25 1.70 1.50 1.60
Estimated returns (%) 11 10 12 11.5 12
OR
(a) How do stock options differ from stock futures? Explain. (5)
Ans. : See para 11.6
(b) A 3-months call option is available at a premium of Rs. 2 per share. Find
out the net pay-off of the option holder as well as the option writer if: (10)
i. The exercise price is Rs. 50
ii. The spot price of the share on the exercise day is Rs. 36, Rs. 50, Rs.
52, Rs. 54, Rs. 68
Q.5. (a) “In every investment decision, there is an inherent risk-return
trade-off.” Explain. (5)
Ans. : See para 1.5
(b) The earnings of RE Ltd. are expected to grow at the rate of 6% p.a. The
dividend expected on RE’s share a year hence is Rs. 2. The dividends are
expected to grow at 6% forever. At what price should this share be sold to
an investor having a required rate of return 14%? (5)
(c) A company has Zero COUPON Bond for Rs. 520 to be redeemed at Rs.
1000 after 5 years. Is it a worthwhile investment for an investor having a
required rate of return of 16%? (5)
OR
(a) Write short notes on any two: (5,5)
i. Stop loss order
ii. NIFTY
iii. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
iv. SEBI’s initiatives on investor protection
Ans. : (i) A stop loss order is basically designed to limit the amount of potential
loss on buy/sell position. Stop loss is an order placed to buy or sell security
once a certain price is reached. It is an order to buy (or sell) a security once
the price of the security rises above (or falls below) a specified stop price.
(ii) See para 2.3
(iii) See para 7.2
(iv) See para 12.6
B.COM 2019 : sem. VI : Fundamentals of Investment 586
(b) Calculate NAV per unit of a mutual fund scheme when the following
information is provided: (5)
Cash balance 400000
Bank balance 200000
10% debentures 1000000
Equity shares (FV=Rs. 100) 1000000
Accrued expenses 100000
Number of units outstanding 200000
10% Debentures and Equity shares are currently trading in the market at
90% and 120% respectively.
Ans.: 1 (b)
Pi RX RY PiRX PiRY
Pi (RX − RX )2 Pi (RY − RY )2
0.2 -10 5 -2 1 110.45 33.8
0.3 25 30 7.5 9 39.675 43.2
0.3 20 20 6 6 12.675 1.2
0.2 10 10 2 2 2.45 12.8
13.5 18 165.25 91
Expected Return
E(RX)= ∑P R i X= 13.5%
E(RY)= ∑P R i Y = 18%
Risk
4
σ X = ∑Pi (R X − R X ) 2 = 2 165.25 = 12.85%
1
4
σ Y = ∑Pi (RY − R Y ) 2 = 2 91 = 9.54%
1
Since the expected return of the two securities is not equal, we cannot use
standard deviation to compare their risk. We, would rather use a relative
measure of risk, i.e., Coefficient of Variation to draw meaningful comparisons.
Coefficient of Variation
12.85
C.V. X = = 0.95
13.5
587 B.COM 2019 : sem. VI : Fundamentals of Investment
9.54
C.V.Y = = 0.53
18
Hence Security Y is preferred as it has lower Coefficient of variation than
security X. It has lower risk per unit of return generated.
OR
Ans.: 1 (b) (i) Return (Rp)= ∑P Wi i = 0.6 × 0.14 + 0.4 × 0.19 = 0.16 or 16%
(ii) σp = σ 2A ×w A2 + σ 2B ×w B2 + 2×σ A σ B ×w Aw A ×r
(iii) σp = σ 2A ×w A2 + σ 2B ×w B2 + 2×σ A σ B ×w Aw A ×r
RV
Ans.: 5 (c) P0 =
(1 + K )
n
d
1000
Intrinsic Value = = Rs. 476.11
( 0.16) 5
1 +
Table A1 : Present Value Factor for a lump sum amount {PVF (r%, n)}
Period
n 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
1 0.990 0.980 0.971 0.962 0.952 0.943 0.935 0.926 0.917 0.909 0.901 0.893 0.885 0.877 0.870
2 0.980 0.961 0.943 0.925 0.907 0.890 0.873 0.857 0.842 0.826 0.812 0.797 0.783 0.769 0.756
3 0.971 0.942 0.915 0.889 0.864 0.840 0.816 0.794 0.772 0.751 0.731 0.712 0.693 0.675 0.658
4 0.961 0.924 0.889 0.855 0.823 0.792 0.763 0.735 0.708 0.683 0.659 0.636 0.613 0.592 0.572
5 0.951 0.906 0.863 0.822 0.784 0.747 0.713 0.681 0.650 0.621 0.593 0.567 0.543 0.519 0.497
6 0.942 0.888 0.838 0.790 0.746 0.705 0.666 0.630 0.596 0.564 0.535 0.507 0.480 0.456 0.432
7 0.933 0.871 0.813 0.760 0.711 0.665 0.623 0.583 0.547 0.513 0.482 0.452 0.425 0.400 0.376
8 0.923 0.853 0.789 0.731 0.677 0.627 0.582 0.540 0.502 0.467 0.434 0.404 0.376 0.351 0.327
591
9 0.914 0.837 0.766 0.703 0.645 0.592 0.544 0.500 0.460 0.424 0.391 0.361 0.333 0.308 0.284
10 0.905 0.820 0.744 0.676 0.614 0.558 0.508 0.463 0.422 0.386 0.352 0.322 0.295 0.270 0.247
11 0.896 0.804 0.722 0.650 0.585 0.527 0.475 0.429 0.388 0.350 0.317 0.287 0.261 0.237 0.215
12 0.887 0.788 0.701 0.625 0.557 0.497 0.444 0.397 0.356 0.319 0.286 0.257 0.231 0.208 0.187
13 0.879 0.773 0.681 0.601 0.530 0.469 0.415 0.368 0.326 0.290 0.258 0.229 0.204 0.182 0.163
14 0.870 0.758 0.661 0.577 0.505 0.442 0.388 0.340 0.299 0.263 0.232 0.205 0.181 0.160 0.141
15 0.861 0.743 0.642 0.555 0.481 0.417 0.362 0.315 0.275 0.239 0.209 0.183 0.160 0.140 0.123
16 0.853 0.728 0.623 0.534 0.458 0.394 0.339 0.292 0.252 0.218 0.188 0.163 0.141 0.123 0.107
17 0.844 0.714 0.605 0.513 0.436 0.371 0.317 0.270 0.231 0.198 0.170 0.146 0.125 0.108 0.093
18 0.836 0.700 0.587 0.494 0.416 0.350 0.296 0.250 0.212 0.180 0.153 0.130 0.111 0.095 0.081
19 0.828 0.686 0.570 0.475 0.396 0.331 0.276 0.232 0.194 0.164 0.138 0.116 0.098 0.083 0.070
20 0.820 0.673 0.554 0.456 0.377 0.312 0.258 0.215 0.178 0.149 0.124 0.104 0.087 0.073 0.061
25 0.780 0.610 0.478 0.375 0.295 0.233 0.184 0.146 0.116 0.092 0.074 0.059 0.047 0.038 0.030
30 0.742 0.552 0.412 0.308 0.231 0.174 0.131 0.099 0.075 0.057 0.044 0.033 0.026 0.020 0.015
Table A1 : Present Value Factor for a lump sum amount {PVF (r%, n)}
Period
n 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30%
1 0.862 0.855 0.847 0.840 0.833 0.826 0.820 0.813 0.806 0.800 0.794 0.787 0.781 0.775 0.769
2 0.743 0.731 0.718 0.706 0.694 0.683 0.672 0.661 0.650 0.640 0.630 0.620 0.610 0.601 0.592
3 0.641 0.624 0.609 0.593 0.579 0.564 0.551 0.537 0.524 0.512 0.500 0.488 0.477 0.466 0.455
4 0.552 0.534 0.516 0.499 0.482 0.466 0.451 0.437 0.423 0.410 0.397 0.384 0.373 0.361 0.350
5 0.476 0.456 0.437 0.419 0.402 0.386 0.370 0.355 0.341 0.328 0.315 0.303 0.291 0.280 0.269
6 0.410 0.390 0.370 0.352 0.335 0.319 0.303 0.289 0.275 0.262 0.250 0.238 0.227 0.217 0.207
7 0.354 0.333 0.314 0.296 0.279 0.263 0.249 0.235 0.222 0.210 0.198 0.188 0.178 0.168 0.159
8 0.305 0.285 0.266 0.249 0.233 0.218 0.204 0.191 0.179 0.168 0.157 0.148 0.139 0.130 0.123
9 0.263 0.243 0.226 0.209 0.194 0.180 0.167 0.155 0.144 0.134 0.125 0.116 0.108 0.101 0.094
10 0.227 0.208 0.191 0.176 0.162 0.149 0.137 0.126 0.116 0.107 0.099 0.092 0.085 0.078 0.073
11 0.195 0.178 0.162 0.148 0.135 0.123 0.112 0.103 0.094 0.086 0.079 0.072 0.066 0.061 0.056
12 0.168 0.152 0.137 0.124 0.112 0.102 0.092 0.083 0.076 0.069 0.062 0.057 0.052 0.047 0.043
13 0.145 0.130 0.116 0.104 0.093 0.084 0.075 0.068 0.061 0.055 0.050 0.045 0.040 0.037 0.033
14 0.125 0.111 0.099 0.088 0.078 0.069 0.062 0.055 0.049 0.044 0.039 0.035 0.032 0.028 0.025
Mathematical Tables
15 0.108 0.095 0.084 0.074 0.065 0.057 0.051 0.045 0.040 0.035 0.031 0.028 0.025 0.022 0.020
16 0.093 0.081 0.071 0.062 0.054 0.047 0.042 0.036 0.032 0.028 0.025 0.022 0.019 0.017 0.015
17 0.080 0.069 0.060 0.052 0.045 0.039 0.034 0.030 0.026 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.015 0.013 0.012
18 0.069 0.059 0.051 0.044 0.038 0.032 0.028 0.024 0.021 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.009
19 0.060 0.051 0.043 0.037 0.031 0.027 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007
20 0.051 0.043 0.037 0.031 0.026 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005
25 0.024 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001
30 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000
592
Table A2 : Present Value Factor for an Annuity {PVFA (r%, n)}
593
Period
n 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
1 0.990 0.980 0.971 0.962 0.952 0.943 0.935 0.926 0.917 0.909 0.901 0.893 0.885 0.877 0.870
2 1.970 1.942 1.913 1.886 1.859 1.833 1.783 1.783 1.759 1.736 1.713 1.690 1.668 1.647 1.626
3 2.941 2.884 2.829 2.775 2.723 2.673 2.624 2.577 2.531 2.487 2.444 2.402 2.361 2.322 2.283
4 3.902 3.808 3.717 3.630 3.546 3.465 3.312 3.312 3.240 3.170 3.102 3.037 2.974 2.914 2.855
5 4.853 4.713 4.580 4.452 4.329 4.212 4.100 3.993 3.890 3.791 3.696 3.605 3.517 3.433 3.352
6 5.795 5.601 5.417 5.242 5.076 4.917 4.767 4.623 4.486 4.355 4.231 4.111 3.998 3.889 3.784
7 6.728 6.472 6.230 6.002 5.789 5.582 5.389 5.206 5.033 4.868 4.712 4.564 4.423 4.288 4.160
8 7.652 7.326 7.020 6.733 6.463 6.210 5.971 5.747 5.535 5.335 5.146 4.968 4.799 4.639 4.487
9 8.566 8.162 7.786 7.435 7.108 6.802 6.515 6.247 5.995 5.759 5.537 5.328 5.132 4.946 4.772
10 9.471 8.983 8.530 8.111 7.722 7.360 7.024 6.710 6.418 6.145 5.889 5.650 5.426 5.216 5.019
11 10.368 9.787 9.253 8.760 8.306 7.887 7.499 7.139 6.805 6.495 6.207 5.938 5.687 5.453 5.234
12 11.255 10.575 9.954 9.385 8.863 8.384 7.943 7.536 7.161 6.814 6.492 6.194 5.918 5.660 5.421
13 12.134 11.348 10.635 9.986 9.394 8.858 8.358 7.904 7.487 7.103 6.750 6.424 6.122 5.842 5.583
14 13.004 12.106 11.296 10.563 9.899 9.295 8.746 8.244 7.786 7.367 6.982 6.628 6.303 6.002 5.724
Mathematical Tables
15 13.865 12.849 11.938 11.118 10.380 9.712 9.108 8.560 8.061 7.606 7.191 6.811 6.462 6.142 5.847
16 14.718 13.578 12.561 11.652 10.838 10.106 9.447 8.851 8.313 7.824 7.379 6.974 6.604 6.265 5.954
17 15.562 14.292 13.166 12.166 11.274 10.477 9.763 9.122 8.544 8.002 7.549 7.120 6.729 6.373 6.047
18 16.398 14.992 13.754 12.659 11.690 10.828 10.059 9.372 8.756 8.201 7.702 7.250 6.840 6.467 6.128
19 17.226 15.679 14.324 13.134 12.085 11.158 10.336 9.604 8.950 8.365 7.893 7.366 6.938 6.50 6.198
20 18.046 16.352 14.878 13.590 12.462 11.470 10.594 9.818 9.129 8.514 7.963 7.469 7.025 6.623 6.259
25 22.023 19.524 17.413 15.622 14.094 12.783 11.654 10.675 9.823 9.077 8.422 7.843 7.330 6.873 6.464
30 25.808 22.397 19.601 17.292 15.373 13.765 12.409 11.258 10.274 9.427 8.694 8.005 7.496 7.003 6.566
Table A2 : Present Value Factor for an Annuity {PVFA (r%, n)}
Period
n 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30%
1 0.862 0.855 0.847 0.850 0.833 0.826 0.820 0.813 0.806 0.800 0.794 0.787 0.781 0.775 0.769
2 1.605 1.585 1.566 1.547 1.528 1.509 1.492 1.474 1.457 1.440 1.424 1.407 1.392 1.376 1.361
3 2.246 2.210 2.174 2.140 2.106 2.074 2.042 2.011 1.981 1.952 1.923 1.896 1.868 1.842 1.816
4 2.798 2.743 2.690 2.639 2.589 2.540 2.494 2.448 2.404 2.362 2.320 2.280 2.241 2.203 2.166
5 3.274 3.199 3.127 3.058 2.991 2.926 2.864 2.803 2.745 2.689 2.635 2.583 2.532 2.483 2.436
6 3.685 3.589 3.498 3.410 3.326 3.245 3.167 3.092 3.020 2.951 2.885 2.821 2.759 2.700 2.643
7 4.039 3.922 3.812 3.706 3.605 3.508 3.416 3.327 3.242 3.161 3.083 3.009 2.937 2.868 2.802
8 4.344 4.207 4.078 3.954 3.837 3.726 3.619 3.518 3.421 3.329 3.241 3.156 3.076 2.999 2.925
9 4.607 4.451 4.303 4.163 4.031 3.905 3.786 3.673 3.566 3.463 3.366 3.273 3.184 3.100 3.019
10 4.833 4.659 4.494 4.339 4.192 4.054 3.923 3.799 3.682 3.570 3.465 3.364 3.269 3.178 3.092
11 5.029 4.836 4.656 4.487 4.327 4.177 4.035 3.902 3.776 3.656 3.544 3.437 3.335 3.239 3.147
12 5.197 4.988 4.793 4.611 4.439 4.278 4.127 3.985 3.851 3.725 3.606 3.493 3.387 3.286 3.190
13 5.342 5.118 4.910 4.715 4.533 4.362 4.203 4.053 3.912 3.780 3.656 3.538 3.427 3.322 3.223
14 5.468 5.229 5.008 4.802 4.611 4.432 4.265 4.108 3.962 3.824 3.695 3.573 3.459 3.351 3.249
Mathematical Tables
15 5.575 5.324 5.092 4.876 4.675 4.489 4.315 4.153 4.001 3.859 3.726 3.601 3.483 3.373 3.268
16 5.669 5.405 5.162 4.938 4.730 4.536 4.357 4.189 4.033 3.887 3.751 3.623 3.503 3.390 3.283
17 5.749 5.475 5.222 4.990 4.775 4.576 4.391 4.219 4.059 3.910 3.771 3.640 3.518 3.403 3.295
18 5.818 5.534 5.273 5.033 4.812 4.608 4.419 4.243 4.080 3.928 3.786 3.654 3.529 3.413 3.311
19 5.877 5.585 5.316 5.070 4.843 4.635 4.442 4.263 4.097 3.942 3.799 3.664 3.539 3.421 3.311
20 5.929 5.628 5.353 5.101 4.870 4.657 4.460 4.279 4.110 3.954 3.808 3.673 3.546 3.427 3.316
25 6.097 5.766 5.467 5.195 4.948 4.721 4.514 4.323 4.147 3.985 3.834 3.694 3.564 3.442 3.329
30 6.177 5.829 5.517 5.235 4.979 4.746 4.534 4.339 4.160 3.995 3.842 3.701 3.569 3.447 3.332
594
Table A3 : Compound Value Factor for a lump sum amount {CVF (r%, n)}
595
Period
n 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
1 1.010 1.020 1.030 1.040 1.050 1.060 1.070 1.080 1.090 1.100 1.110 1.120 1.130 1.140 1.150
2 1.020 1.040 1.061 1.082 1.102 1.124 1.145 1.166 1.188 1.210 1.232 1.254 1.277 1.300 1.322
3 1.030 1.061 1.093 1.125 1.158 1.191 1.225 1.260 1.295 1.331 1.368 1.405 1.443 1.482 1.521
4 1.041 1.082 1.126 1.170 1.216 1.262 1.311 1.360 1.412 1.464 1.518 1.574 1.630 1.689 1.749
5 1.051 1.104 1.159 1.217 1.276 1.338 1.403 1.469 1.539 1.611 1.685 1.762 1.842 1.925 2.011
6 1.062 1.126 1.194 1.265 1.340 1.419 1.501 1.587 1.677 1.772 1.870 1.974 2.082 2.195 2.313
7 1.072 1.149 1.230 1.316 1.407 1.504 1.606 1.714 1.828 1.949 2.076 2.211 2.353 2.502 2.660
8 1.083 1.172 1.267 1.369 1.477 1.594 1.718 1.851 1.993 2.144 2.305 2.476 2.658 2.853 3.059
9 1.094 1.195 1.305 1.423 1.551 1.689 1.838 1.999 2.172 2.358 2.558 2.773 3.004 3.252 3.518
10 1.105 1.219 1.344 1.480 1.629 1.791 1.967 2.159 2.367 2.594 2.839 3.106 3.395 3.707 4.046
11 1.116 1.243 1.384 1.539 1.710 1.898 2.105 2.332 2.580 2.853 3.152 3.479 3.836 4.226 4.652
12 1.127 1.268 1.426 1.601 1.796 2.012 2.252 2.518 2.813 3.138 3.498 3.896 4.335 4.818 5.350
13 1.138 1.294 1.469 1.665 1.886 2.133 2.410 2.720 3.056 3.452 3.883 4.363 4.898 5.492 6.153
14 1.149 1.319 1.513 1.732 1.930 2.261 2.579 2.937 3.342 3.797 4.310 4.887 5.535 6.261 7.076
Mathematical Tables
15 1.161 1.346 1.558 1.801 2.079 2.397 2.759 3.172 3.642 4.177 4.785 5.474 6.254 7.138 8.137
16 1.173 1.373 1.605 1.873 2.183 2.540 2.952 3.426 3.970 4.595 5.311 6.130 7.067 8.137 9.358
17 1.184 1.400 1.653 1.948 2.292 2.693 3.159 3.700 4.328 5.054 5.895 6.866 7.986 9.276 10.761
18 1.196 1.428 1.702 2.026 2.407 2.854 3.380 3.996 4.717 5.560 6.544 7.690 9.024 10.575 12.375
19 1.208 1.457 1.754 2.107 2.527 3.026 3.617 4.316 5.142 6.116 7.263 8.613 10.197 12.056 14.232
20 1.220 1.486 1.806 2.191 2.653 3.207 3.870 4.661 5.604 6.728 8.062 9.646 11.523 13.743 16.367
25 1.282 1.641 2.094 2.666 3.386 4.292 5.427 6.848 8.623 10.835 13.585 17.000 21.231 26.462 32.919
30 1.348 1.811 2.427 3.243 4.322 5.743 7.612 10.063 13.268 17.449 22.892 29.960 39.116 50.950 66.212
Table A3 : Compound Value Factor for a lump sum amount {CVF (r%, n)}
Period
n 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30%
1 1.160 1.170 1.180 1.190 1.200 1.210 1.220 1.230 1.240 1.250 1.260 1.270 1.280 1.290 1.300
2 1.346 1.369 1.392 1.416 1.440 1.464 1.488 1.513 1.538 1.562 1.588 1.613 1.638 1.664 1.690
3 1.561 1.602 1.643 1.685 1.728 1.772 1.816 1.861 1.907 1.953 2.000 2.048 2.097 2.147 2.197
4 1.811 1.874 1.939 2.005 2.074 2.144 2.215 2.289 2.364 2.441 2.520 2.601 2.684 2.769 2.856
5 2.100 2.192 2.288 2.386 2.488 2.594 2.703 2.815 2.392 3.052 3.176 3.304 3.436 3.572 3.713
6 2.436 2.565 2.700 2.840 2.986 3.138 3.297 3.463 3.635 3.815 4.001 4.196 4.398 4.608 4.827
7 2.826 3.001 3.185 3.379 3.583 3.797 4.023 4.259 4.508 4.768 5.042 5.329 5.629 5.945 6.275
8 3.278 3.511 3.759 4.021 4.300 4.595 4.908 5.239 5.590 5.960 6.353 6.767 7.206 7.669 8.157
9 3.803 4.108 4.435 4.785 5.160 5.560 5.987 6.444 6.931 7.451 8.004 8.595 9.223 9.893 10.604
10 4.411 4.807 5.234 5.695 6.192 6.727 7.305 7.926 8.549 9.313 10.086 10.915 11.806 12.761 13.786
11 5.117 5.624 6.176 6.777 7.430 8.140 8.912 9.749 10.657 11.642 12.708 13.862 15.112 16.462 17.921
12 5.936 6.580 7.288 8.064 8.916 9.850 10.872 11.991 13.215 14.552 16:012 17.605 19.343 21.236 23.298
13 6.886 7.699 8.599 9.596 10.699 11.918 13.264 14.749 16.386 18.190 20.175 22.359 24.759 27.395 30.287
14 7.988 9.007 10.147 11.420 12.839 14.421 16.182 18.141 20.319 22.737 25.420 28.395 31.961 35.339 39.373
Mathematical Tables
15 9.266 10.539 11.974 13.590 15.407 17.449 19.742 22.314 25.196 28.422 32.030 36.062 40.565 45.587 51.185
16 10.748 12.330 14.129 16.172 18.488 21.113 24.084 27.446 31.243 35.527 40.357 45.799 51.923 58.808 66.541
17 12.468 14.426 16.672 19.244 22.186 25.547 29.384 33.758 38.741 44.409 50.850 58.165 66.461 75.862 86.503
18 14.463 16.879 19.673 22.901 26.623 30.912 35.848 41.523 48.039 55.511 64.071 73.869 85.071 97.862 112.454
19 16.777 19.748 23.214 27.252 31.948 37.404 43.735 51.073 59.568 69.389 80.730 93.813 108.890 126.242 146.190
20 19.461 23.106 27.393 32.429 38.338 45.258 53.357 62.820 73.864 86.736 101.720 119.143 139.380 162.852 190.047
25 40.874 50.658 32.669 77.388 95.396 117.388 144.207 176.857 216.542 264.698 323.040 393.628 478.905 581.756 705.627
30 85.850 111.065 143.371 184.675 237.376 304.471 389.748 497.904 634.820 807.793 1025.904 1300.477 1645.504 2078.208 2619.937
596
Table A4 : Compound Value Factor for an Annuity {CVFA (r%, n)}
597
Period
n 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%
1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
2 2.010 2.020 2.030 2.040 2.050 2.060 2.070 2.080 2.090 2.100 2.110 2.120 2.130 2.140 2.150
3 3.030 3.060 3.091 3.122 3.152 3.184 3.215 3.246 3.278 3.310 3.342 3.374 3.407 3.440 3.473
4 4.060 4.122 4.184 4.246 4.310 4.375 4.440 4.506 4.573 4.641 4.710 4.779 4.850 4.921 4.993
5 5.101 5.204 5.309 5.416 5.526 5.637 5.751 5.867 5.985 6.105 6.228 6.353 6.480 6.610 6.742
6 6.152 6.308 6.468 6.633 6.802 6.975 7.153 7.336 7.523 7.716 7.913 8.115 8.323 8.536 8.754
7 7.214 7.434 7.662 7.898 8.142 8.394 8.654 8.923 9.200 9.487 9.783 10.089 10.405 10.730 11.067
8 8.286 8.583 8.892 9.214 9.549 9.897 10.260 10.637 11.028 11.436 11.589 12.300 12.757 13.233 13.727
9 9.369 9.755 10.159 10.583 11.027 11.491 11.978 12.448 13.021 13.579 14.164 14.776 15.416 16.085 16.786
10 10.462 10.950 11.464 12.006 12.578 13.181 13.816 14.487 15.193 15.937 16.722 17.549 18.420 19.337 20.304
11 11.567 12.169 12.808 13.486 14.207 14.972 15.784 16.645 17.560 18.531 19.561 20.655 21.814 23.004 24.349
12 12.683 13.412 14.192 15.026 15.917 16.870 17.888 18.977 20.141 21.384 22.713 24.133 25.650 27.271 29.002
13 13.809 14.680 15.618 16.627 17.713 18.882 20.141 21.495 22.953 24.523 26.212 28.029 29.985 32.089 34.352
14 14.947 15.974 17.086 18.292 19.599 21.015 22.550 24.215 26.019 27.975 30.095 32.393 34.883 37.581 40.505
Mathematical Tables
15 16.097 17.293 18.599 20.024 21.579 23.276 25.129 27.152 29.361 31.772 34.405 37.280 40.417 43.842 47.580
16 17.258 18.639 20.157 21.825 23.657 25.673 27.888 30.324 33.003 35.950 39.190 42.753 46.672 50.980 55.717
17 18.430 20.012 21.762 23.698 25.840 28.213 30.840 33.750 36.974 40.545 44.501 48.884 53.739 59.118 65.075
18 19.615 21.412 23.414 25.645 28.132 30.906 33.999 37.450 41.301 45.599 50.396 55.750 61.725 68.394 75.836
19 20.811 22.841 25.117 27.671 30.539 33.760 37.379 41.446 46.018 51.159 56.939 63.440 70.749 78.969 88.212
20 22.019 24.297 26.870 29.778 33.066 36.786 40.995 45.762 51.160 57.275 64.203 72.052 80.947 91.025 102.44
25 28.243 32.030 36.459 41.646 47.727 54.865 63.249 73.106 84.701 98.347 114.413 133.334 155.620 181.871 212.793
30 34.785 40.568 47.575 56.805 66.439 79.058 94.461 113.283 136.308 164.494 199.021 241.333 293.199 356.787 434.745
Table A4 : Compound Value Factor for an Annuity {CVFA (r%, n)}
Period
n 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30%
1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
2 2.160 2.170 2.180 2.190 2.200 2.210 2.220 2.230 2.240 2.250 2.260 2.270 2.280 2.290 2.300
3 3.506 3.539 3.572 3.606 3.640 3.674 3.708 3.743 3.778 3.813 3.843 3.883 3.918 3.954 3.990
4 5.066 5.141 5.215 5.291 5.368 5.446 5.524 5.604 5.684 5.766 5.848 5.931 6.016 6.101 6.187
5 6.877 7.014 7.154 7.297 7.442 7.589 7.740 7.893 8.048 8.207 8.368 8.533 8.700 8.870 9.043
6 8.977 9.207 9.442 9.683 9.930 10.183 10.442 10.708 10.980 11.259 11.544 11.837 12.136 12.442 12.756
7 11.414 11.772 12.142 12.523 12.916 13.321 13.740 14.171 14.615 15.073 15.546 16.032 16.534 17.051 17.583
8 14.240 14.773 15.327 15.902 16.499 17.119 17.762 18.430 19.123 19.842 20.588 21.361 22.163 22.995 23.858
9 17.518 18.285 19.086 19.923 20.799 21.714 22.670 23.669 24.712 25.802 26.940 28.129 29.369 30.664 32.015
10 21.321 22.393 23.521 24.709 25.959 27.274 28.657 30.113 31.643 33.253 34.945 36.723 38.592 40.556 42.619
11 25.733 27.200 28.755 30.404 32.150 34.001 35.962 38.039 40.238 42.566 45.030 47.639 50.399 53.318 56.405
12 30.850 32.824 34.931 37.180 39.580 42.141 44.873 47.787 50.985 54.208 57.738 61.501 65.510 69.780 74.326
13 36.786 39.404 42.219 45.244 48.497 51.991 55.745 59.778 64.110 68.760 73.750 79.106 84.853 91.016 97.624
14 43.672 47.103 50.818 54.841 59.196 63.909 69.009 74.528 80.496 86.949 93.925 101.465 109.612 118.411 127.912
Mathematical Tables
15 51.660 56.110 60.965 66.261 72.035 78.330 85.191 92.669 100.815 109.687 119.346 129.860 141.303 153.750 167.285
16 60.925 66.649 72.939 79.850 87.442 95.779 104.933 114.983 126.011 138.109 151.375 165.922 181.868 199.337 218.470
17 71.673 78.979 87.068 96.022 105.931 116.892 129.019 142.428 157.253 173.636 191.733 211.721 233.791 258.145 285.011
18 84.141 93.406 103.740 115.266 128.117 142.439 158.403 176.187 195.994 218.045 242.583 269.885 300.252 334.006 371.514
19 98.603 110.285 123.414 138.166 154.740 173.351 194.251 217.710 244.033 273.556 306.654 343.754 385.323 431.868 483.968
20 115.380 130.033 146.628 165.418 186.688 210.755 237.986 268.783 303.601 342.945 387.384 437.568 494.213 558.110 630.157
25 249.214 292.105 342.603 402.042 471.981 554.230 650.944 764.596 898.092 1054.791 1238.617 1454.180 1706.803 2002.608 2348.765
30 530.321 647.439 790.748 966.712 1181.882 1445.111 1767.044 2160.459 2640.916 3227.172 3941.953 4812.891 5873.231 7162.785 8729.805
598