Concerns about Safety

Citizens of today’s Western industrialized countries lead remarkably safe lives. They live on average longer and in

better health than previous generations and the inhabitants of most other countries. Governments, ngos,

businessmen and scientific experts nevertheless have repeatedly voiced concerns about our safety. Much attention

goes to crime and terrorist threats. But the concern for risks pertaining to health, the environment and society that

are linked, among other things, to industrial activities and new technologies, to lifestyles and foodstuffs, to climate

change and new infectious diseases, attracts much attention as well.

This report focuses on the political issues and public policy problems that such risks entail. The concerns that are

expressed vary widely. A study conducted by several large financial and academic institutions on the initiative of

the World Economic Forum (2007) may serve as an example. It discusses 23 global risks that according to the

authors will present themselves to the international community in the decade ahead with a likelihood of more than 1

per cent. They involve threats that will have catastrophic effects indeed, if they occur. The anticipated losses and

damages are estimated to range from several thousands to over a million deaths, and between ten and one

thousand billion dollars per incident. The nature of the dangers identified varies widely. Apart from economic risks

(such as a hard landing of the Chinese economy and a dramatic fall of the dollar due to the deficit on the us

balance of payments) and geo-political security issues (such as international terrorism and the proliferation of

weapons of mass destruction), the World

Economic Forum study points to a wide range of safety issues. In this context, it mentions various environmental

problems and climate change, as well as pandemics and technological calamities such as a large-scale collapse of

the information infrastructure and risks connected with the introduction of nanotechnology. The chances that these

calamities will occur in the next ten years were estimated on the basis of contributions from a large number of

experts. The study refers to likelihoods ranging between one and 20 percent. In addition to the 23 core global risks,

the study also refers to many safety risks that might present themselves but about which there is insufficient

knowledge available to provide more than purely speculative estimations of chances and effects. For instance,

there might surface as yet unknown negative health impacts of the high-frequency electromagnetic radiation that

forms the basis of, among other things, mobile telephony and wireless internet; and as a result of climate change,

the incidence of malaria might rise dramatically. A large number of the risks mentioned will primarily hurt people in

the poorest countries, if they materialize.