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Memory hole: Researchers at Johns Hopkins estimate that by yet—it is a complex and expensive undertaking—but there is
2050 more than 106 million people worldwide will have Alzhei reason to believe it could be worth the investment.
mer’s disease if effective treatments are not found. Observational studies, which follow people as they get older
without directly intervening in their treatment, have uncovered
Projected number of Alzheimer’s cases worldwide by 2050 (in millions) some suggestive trends. Larson and others have shown that peo-
120 ple who have good control of their blood pressure from age 65 to
80 are less likely to develop dementia. After age 85, controlling
blood pressure does not have much effect on dementia risk. That
doesn’t mean anyone older than 85 should stop taking blood
80
pressure medication. Lowering high blood pressure still pre-
vents congestive heart failure and promotes kidney health. But
these studies suggest that doctors do not have to take aggressive
40 measures when treating patients older than 85 for hypertension.
As for physical activity, the best evidence in favor of its bene-
fits for the brain comes from Australia. Two years ago research-
ers there published the results of a randomized controlled trial
0 of physical activity in 170 older adults who had started showing
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 greater memory problems than their peers and were thus at in-
creased risk of developing dementia. Study participants aver-
make dementia worse does not mean that preventing them will aged an extra 20 minutes a day of physical activity over six
delay the brain’s overall deterioration. Maybe severe dementia months. The study was so rigorously designed that individuals
makes people more vulnerable to microinfarcts. And just be- undertook the extra exercise by themselves at home to preclude
cause better control of high blood pressure and increased physi- the possibility that the true benefit had come from socializing
cal activity seem to decrease a person’s risk of stroke, that does with other people during group activities. The benefits of extra
not necessarily mean they are less likely to suffer microinfarcts. exercise were obvious and lasted—albeit at a diminishing level—
Correlation, after all, does not necessarily imply causation. That for 12 months after the exercise program ended. Not only did
scientific truism was the problem that kept bothering the panel the experimental group score better on tests of their cognition
of outside experts put together by the NIH. Thus, the expert pan- compared with the control group, but the improvement was
el concluded, with one exception, that “all existing evidence sug- twice as great as the one that had previously been shown for the
gests that antihypertensive treatment results in no cognitive antidementia drug donepezil (brand name Aricept). This was
benefit.” Data showing the benefits of boosting physical activity the first time that anyone had proved in a randomized con-
in folks with confirmed memory problems were “preliminary.” trolled trial that exercise could improve mental functioning in
The controversy boils down to semantics, says Martha L. Da- people with some cognitive problems.
viglus, chair of the consensus panel and a preventive cardiology No one understands on a biochemical level why physical ac-
researcher at Northwestern University’s School of Medicine. tivity might help the brain. The best explanation so far, says
“Obviously, smoking and hypertension are risk factors for car- Henrietta van Praag, a neurobiologist at the National Institute
diovascular disease,” she says. “And they may turn out to be risk on Aging, is that exercising the heart somehow stimulates growth
factors for Alzheimer’s disease as well,” she says. But after re- factors to produce new nerve cells in the brain. In 1999 van Praag
viewing all the evidence, Daviglus and her fellow panelists con- showed that more new nerves formed in the hippocampus—
cluded that it “failed to provide convincing evidence” of the link, one of the key centers in the brain for memory and learning—in
whereas other researchers see “some evidence” of a link. physically active mice than in inactive ones. (She was working
Getting better data may be a problem, however. One of the at the time as a postdoctoral researcher in Fred Gage’s laborato-