Safety Science 77 (2015) 25–41

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Safety Science

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Use of HFACS–FCM in fire prevention modelling on board ships

a,⇑ b c
Omer Soner , Umut Asan , Metin Celik
a Department of Maritime Transportation and Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Tuzla 34940, Istanbul, Turkey
b Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Macka 34367, Istanbul,
c
Turkey Department of Marine Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Tuzla 34940, Istanbul, Turkey

article info abstract

Article history: This research proposes a proactive modelling approach that combines Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) and Human Factors
Received 5 January 2015 Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). Principally, the suggested model helps predicting and eliminating the root
Received in revised form 24 February 2015 causes behind the frequently repeating deficiencies on board ships. Supported with qualitative simulations, the HFACS–FCM
Accepted 11 March 2015
model is demonstrated on a fire related deficiency sample database. The findings indicate that the root causes of a fire related
deficiency on board ship might be revealed in various levels such as unsafe acts, pre-conditions for unsafe acts, unsafe
supervision, and organization influences. Considering the determined root causes and their priorities, the Safe Ship System
Keywords:
Mechanism (SSSM), Safe Ship Operation Mechanism (SSOM), and Safe Ship Execution Mechanism (SSEM) are constituted.
Ship safety management
Root cause analysis Consequently, the paper has added value to both predicting the root causes and enhancing fire-fighting potential which
Fire prevention provides reasonable contributions to safety improvements at sea.
FCM
HFACS
2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction major-nonconformities on board ships, which eventuate in deten-tion. Besides

Fire accident is one of the most challenging and fatal events on board
ships. The control of fire in such operational environments requires
immediate response and great effort. Thus, relevant systems should be timely
functioning under operator (ship crew) control without any interruption (Kuo
and Chang, 2003). In addi-tion to firefighting systems on board ships,
proactive approaches against fire related non-conformities, accidents and
hazardous situations are required to avoid the operational problems. Schröder-
Hinrichs et al. (2011) argued that organizational factors were usually not
noticed in maritime accident investigations of fires and explosions in
machinery spaces, instead, lower echelons such as unsafe acts are just
considered.
In the current situation, Port State Control (PSC) organizations have
attempted to enable standard level of achievements in safety, security, and
environmental aspects. The strict control require-ments at international level
enforce the ship-owners and operators and thereby ship management
companies to ensure compliance with the relevant rules and regulations. Li
and Zheng (2008) made suggestions on the improvement of the enforcement
of PSC. Otherwise, the lack of effective and systematic implementations of
the requirements might cause deficiencies, nonconformities or
its cost and unexpected catastrophic consequences, it affects the reputation of
ship management companies in the global market. Above all, reoccurrence of
the mentioned issues (i.e. fire accidents) will threat the sustainable maritime
transportation.
A brief review of PSC survey results on shipboard deficiencies highlights
the significance of the problem. For example, according to the Tokyo MOU
PSC annual report, fire safety measures consti-tute 18% of the total
deficiencies (Tokyo MoU, 2013), while Paris MOU statistics about fire safety
related deficiencies illustrate 15% (Paris MoU, 2012). These statistical reports
serve also as key documents for following the distribution of several
deficiencies at operational level. For instance, Det Norske Veritas (DNV), a
pres-tigious member of International Association of Classification Societies
(IACS), reported that fire safety measures, with 19%, is the most common
category of deficiencies dealt with (DNV, 2012). Another report published by
American Bureau Shipping (ABS) illustrates that fire safety measures, as the
most common deficiency, has the ratio of 16% compared to other categories
(ABS, 2012). Finally, the report published by Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (ClassNK
or NK) emphasises the importance of fire safety measures related deficiencies
whose percentage is around 24% (ClassNK, 2012).

In order to prevent fire risk on board ships, the ship managers and
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 216 3951064; fax: +90 216 3954500. E-mail responsible decision makers should ensure effective imple-mentation of a
address: soneromer023@gmail.com (O. Soner). safety management system in accordance with

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2015.03.007
0925-7535/ 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
26 O. Soner et al. / Safety Science 77 (2015) 25–41
the International Safety Management (ISM) Code. The main objec-tive of the system is to improve safety level on board ships while preventing
human injury, loss of life, and damage to marine environment. According to recent amendments to the ISM Code, identifying measures intended
to prevent recurrence of deficien-cies and near misses has become one of the core issues. It intro-duces a relatively new concept called preventive
action planning, which strictly requires detailed analysis in order to make consistent decisions on actions to be taken (ISM Code, 2010). There is
no doubt that systematic analysis on causation is the most essential aspect of preventive action practices along with the ship operations and
management.

This study proposes a novel preventive action planning approach to enhance fire safety measures on board ships. The rest of this paper is
organized as follows: The current section discussed the significance of controlling and monitoring the fire related deficiencies on board ships.
Then, a wide range of maritime safety literature is reviewed in Section 2. Section 3 introduces the concep-tual framework of the model which is
based on combination of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) and The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). To
demonstrate the suggested model, a case study concerning a fire related deficiency sample database is analysed in Section 4. In the final section,
the research outcomes and potential contributions through ship fire safety pre-paredness are extensively discussed.

2. Literature review

2.1. Maritime literature review

Maritime safety is a significantly important element of sustain-ability in world trade since maritime transportation has been car-rying 80% of
the global cargo (Asariotis et al., 2013). Furthermore, maritime transportation system has long been monitored by International Maritime
Organization (IMO), whose primary purpose is to maintain comprehensive regulatory framework at international level (Wieslaw, 2012) Shipping
might be considered as one of the most dangerous and global industries of the world. The shipping industry seeks for a modern and user friendly
safety system since the maritime accidents might cause catastrophic con-sequences (Hetherington et al., 2006). Hence, the contribution to safety
at sea are highly expected and appreciated by maritime society. This section draws together a wide range of existing literature on a range of issues
on maritime safety. These issues involve the following four important aspects of maritime safety:

(i) regulatory framework, (ii) human factor, (iii) technological improvements and (iv) methodological approaches.
From the regulatory framework perspective, various conven-tions have been developed and adopted by IMO in order to pro-mote the safety,
security, and environmental sensitiveness in shipping industry. However, the effects of the mentioned conven-tions on shipping industry have
been argued and discussed by maritime researchers, rule-makers, and responsible executives. For instance, Vanem and Skjong (2006) criticized
the regulation requirements along with the evacuation procedures in which effec-tive assessment is not possible to conduct. On the other hand,
Tzannatos and Kokotos (2009) investigated ship accident during the pre- and post- ISM period so as to assess the effectiveness of the ISM Code.
In addition, Knapp and Franses (2009) studied on the major international conventions regarding safety, pollution, search and rescue measures. To
strength the safety related regulations, Celik (2009) proposed a systematic approach to evalu-ate the compliance level of the ISM code with the
ISO 9001:2000 to adopt an integrated quality and safety management system. The study illustrated that safety management system
implementations on board ships can be enhanced via quality management
principles. Besides international conventions’ enforcement, Knudsen and Hassler (2011) believed that there are additional efforts required to
challenge with the main causes of the ship acci-dents which have not been reduced to a desired ratio. Karahalios et al. (2011) also conducted
research to perform a cost-benefits analysis along with the maritime regulations. Furthermore, Schinas and Stefanakos (2012) investigated
feasibility of the environmental measurements defined within International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).

Human factor is another core topic in maritime safety studies. To find out the role of human element in safety at sea, Hee et al. (1999)
conducted one of the pioneering researches on maritime safety assessment. Furthermore, Hetherington et al. (2006) con-cluded a research that
reviews a number of studies to eliminate the human errors in ship accidents. As another study, Celik and Er (2007) examined the potential role of
design errors which trig-ger the human error in shipboard operations. To enhance human factor analysis, HFACS was utilized in order to make
quantitative assessment of shipping accident (Celik and Cebi, 2009). To clarify the exact reasons, Wang et al. (2013) proposed a new method in
order to enable accident causations. Recently, Akhtar and Utne (2014) investigated human fatigue effects to bridge team manage-ment
demonstrated with ship grounding case.

Besides human element, technological improvements and mar-itime innovations are one of the significant aspects of maritime safety. At
system safety level, Tzannatos (2005) investigated probable equipment failures and their effects in terms of reliability monitoring of the Greek
coastal passenger fleet. Moreover, Eide et al. (2007) developed an intelligent model to prevent oil spill as another catastrophic event at sea.
Beyond, Lun et al. (2008) investigated the technological adoption to manage security enhancement especially in container transport. In a further
study, Lambrou et al. (2008) introduced the Intelligent Maritime Environment (i-MARE) framework and technological platform for cargo
shipping. Vanem and Ellis (2010) investigated the feasibility of adapting a novel on board passenger monitoring and communi-cation system
based on RFID technology which provides a decision support in emergency situations. Similarly, LiPing et al. (2011) took the advantage of the
video surveillance technology for safe nav-igation. It can be clearly seen that new technologies have potential to enhance safety at sea; however,
it is still a great deal to manage the gaps among regulation implementations, human element and recent technologies in order to increase the
overall utility of such attempts in safety improvements.

Methodological approaches, as the fourth important aspect of maritime safety, have been playing a key role in transforming operational data,
facts, and figures into useful information along with safety enhancement. With this purpose in mind, several researchers, such as Rothblum
(2000), O’Neil (2003), Darbra and Casal (2004), and Toffoli et al. (2005), have conducted statistical analyses, especially, on accidents and their
prevention. On the other hand Lee et al. (2001), Wang and Foinikis (2001), Wang (2002), Lois et al. (2004) used formal safety assessment (FSA)
particularly supported with well-known techniques. Specifically, Bayesian network modelling has been utilized in maritime safety related studies
(Antao et al., 2008; Trucco et al., 2008; Kelangath et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2013; Hänninen et al., 2014) in order to deal with the inherent
uncertainty and complexity in maritime safety problems. Moreover, various methods derived from fuzzy set theory have been cited ( Sii et al.,
2001; Balmat et al., 2009, 2011; Abou, 2012; John et al., 2014) in maritime safety literature. There are also some hybrid quantified models (Celik
and Cebi, 2009; Celik et al., 2010; Pam et al., 2013; Akyuz and Celik, 2014a,b; Karahalios, 2014; Wang et al., 2014) that provide satisfac-tory
approaches to the specified operational problems in maritime safety context.