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European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

www.elsevier.com/locate/ejor

Decision Aiding

Rank from comparisons and from ratings


in the analytic hierarchy/network processes I
Thomas L. Saaty *

Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, 322 Mervis Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA

Received 4 December 2003; accepted 22 April 2004


Available online 25 June 2004

Abstract

Rank preservation and reversal are important subjects in multi-criteria decision-making particularly if a theory uses
only one of two ways of creating priorities: rating alternatives one at a time with respect to an ideal or standard, or
comparing them in pairs. It is known that our minds can do both naturally and without being tutored. When rating
alternatives, they must be assumed to be independent and rank should be preserved. When comparing alternatives, they
must be assumed to be dependent and rank may not always be preserved. However, even in making comparisons rank
can be preserved if one uses idealization instead of normalization with the original set of alternatives and preserves that
ideal from then on unless that ideal itself is deleted for some reason. So often it is a matter of judgment as to whether it
is desirable to force rank preservation or allow rank to adjust as necessary. Examples are given to illustrate the fore-
going ideas.
Ó 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Decision-making; Rank preservation and reversal; Comparative judgment; Relative measurement; Absolute measurement;
Priorities; Rating; Negative priorities; Benefits; Opportunities; Costs; Risks

1. Introduction
q
Theme (Weak version): The rank of a given set of The Harvard psychologist Arthur Blumenthal
independent alternatives with respect to several criteria must
stay the same if new alternatives are added or old ones deleted
tells us in his book The Process of Cognition, Pren-
unless adding or deleting alternatives introduces or deletes tice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey,
criteria and changes judgments. Theme (Strong version): 1977, that there are two types of judgment: ‘‘Com-
Replace the word rank by priority with the added condition parative judgment which is the identification of
that the ratios of the priorities of the original alternatives must some relation between two stimuli both present
be the same before and after deleting old alternatives or adding
new ones.
to the observer, and absolute judgment which in-
*
Tel.: +1 412 621 16546; fax: +1 412 681 4510. volves the relation between a single stimulus and
E-mail address: saaty@katz.pitt.edu some information held in short term memory

0377-2217/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.032
558 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

about some former comparison stimuli or about and compare every element that is added there-
some previously experienced measurement scale after with respect to the standard (unit) and al-
using which the observer rates the single stimulus’’. low it to become larger than that unit or
In the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) we call smaller as needed. Relative scales of measure-
the first relative measurement and the second abso- ment derived from a fundamental scale of paired
lute measurement. In relative measurement we comparisons with values that belong to an abso-
compare each alternative with many other alterna- lute scale (invariant under the identity transfor-
tives and in absolute measurement we compare mation) themselves belong to an absolute scale.
each alternative with one ideal alternative we One can see from the literature of scales that
know of or can imagine, a process we call rating scales derived as in the AHP are a new paradigm
alternatives. The first is descriptive and is condi- in measurement that many people do not under-
tioned by our observational ability and experience stand well even after a degree of exposure. But
and the second is normative, conditioned by what numerous examples show that it has useful char-
we know is best, which of course is relative. Com- acteristics not available in existing measurement
parisons must precede ratings because ideals can particularly with regard to the measurement of
only be created through experience using compar- intangibles, and with using judgment and under-
isons to arrive at what seems best. It is interesting standing within a sizeable structure to examine
that in order to rate alternatives with respect to an possible future happenings. Usually we have
ideal as if they are independent can only be done been led to believe that intuition is unreliable be-
after having made comparisons that involve cause single hunches are usually inaccurate. We
dependence to create the ideal or standard in the have found that intuition is very reliable when
first place. Making comparisons is fundamental a knowledgeable person provides judgments that
and intrinsic in us. They are not an intellectual are many and well integrated within an organ-
invention nor are they something that can be ized structure. Because comparisons are our bio-
ignored. logical inheritance, and also because experience
The tradition of measurement makes one and judgment are what distinguishes the expert
think that there is only one way to measure from the non-expert, it appears that we need
things and that is on a physical scale or assign to formalize our understanding within a trans-
values to them one at a time. We have been in parent and justifiable scientific framework like
the habit of creating scales and waiting for the AHP to make it more reliable and
things to arrive to be measured on these scales usable.
as needed. A unique value is assigned to each
thing or element from a scale. The value as-
signed to an element is unconditional, as it does 2. Fundamentals of the AHP using comparisons
not depend on the measurements of other ele-
ments. That is not the case with scales derived In the AHP paired comparison judgments from
from paired comparisons. Unlike measurement a fundamental scale of absolute numbers are en-
on traditional scales, these scale values exist only tered in a reciprocal matrix. Their numerical val-
after one has the objects or criteria to compare. ues and corresponding intensities are: 1 = equal,
In addition the values derived for each element 3 = moderately dominant, 5 = strongly dominant,
are relative to what other values it is compared 7 = very strongly dominant and 9 = extremely
with, and thus each time an element is compared dominant, along with intermediate values for com-
with other elements it has a different value. The promise and reciprocals for inverse judgments and
values derived are conditional. Derived relative even using decimals to compare homogeneous ele-
scales need not have a unit, but they can after ments whose comparison falls within one unit.
they are derived by dividing by the value of From the matrix an absolute scale of relative val-
one of them if desired. In addition it is possible ues is obtained on normalization (by dividing each
to create a unit or ideal after a first set is chosen value by the sum of all the values) that is used
T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570 559

when conditional dependence on the quality and of an alternative must have no effect on how one
number of other elements in the comparisons is rates any of the others. We call this kind of rank-
needed, or on idealization (dividing each value ing of alternatives with respect to an ideal (which is
by the largest value of any alternative) used when an arbitrarily chosen fixed reference point) abso-
conditional dependence is not needed. Both these lute measurement or rating. Absolute measurement
modes, the first called distributive and the second is analogous to measuring something with a phys-
ideal, are required for use in relative measurement ical device; for example, measuring length with a
as derived from paired comparisons. In the con- yardstick.
sistent case adding the entries in any column and In order to rate alternatives with respect to an
then dividing each entry in that column by its ideal, we need to create intensity levels or degrees
sum, or dividing the sum of each column by their of variation of quality on a criterion; for example,
total sum, gives the priorities as the principal right excellent, above average, average, below average
eigenvector of the matrix. Since each judgment is and poor. We then pairwise compare them to
expressed as an absolute number from the funda- establish priorities and normalize those priorities
mental scale, so also is their sum, and their ratio. by dividing by the largest value among them, so
Every column would give the same vector of prior- that excellent would have a value of 1.000 and
ities because of consistency. In the inconsistent the others would be proportionately less. Idealiz-
case one solves a system of linear homogeneous ing the priorities by dividing by the largest assures
equations that have coefficients that are from an that intensities belonging to large families do not
absolute scale to obtain the principal right eigen- receive small priorities simply because there are
vector for the priorities, and hence the solution many of them. We then rate an alternative by
also belongs to an absolute scale that becomes selecting the appropriate intensity level for it on
relative on normalization or idealization. Thus each criterion. Even when we use a numerical
the AHP uses only absolute scale numbers for scale, say 1–100, to rate each alternative we must
judgments and for their resulting priorities. have an intuitive idea of how high or how low
Because it compares alternatives with each an alternative falls and in the process we subcon-
other, relative measurement is descriptive not nor- sciously make comparisons among different levels
mative. on the scale. It is not the exact number chosen,
Because the AHP is a multi-criteria process we but the level of intensity of feeling behind where
need to combine the priorities of the alternatives it should fall, up or down, on the scale that mat-
derived under the different criteria. The only possi- ters. Because it compares the alternatives with
ble meaningful way to do this that preserves the respect to a standardized ideal, absolute measure-
influence of the proportionality of priority of the ment is normative not descriptive.
criteria on each corresponding vector of alterna- The ratings approach is illustrated in the fol-
tive priorities is to multiply and add. This is also lowing example of choosing the best city to live
validated by the more general Analytic Network in. Fig. 1 shows the goal, criteria and their priori-
Process (ANP) interdependence feedback ap- ties obtained from paired comparisons, and the in-
proach that involves the concept of dominance tensities for each criterion with their idealized
and raising the supermatrix to powers thus again values obtained by dividing by the largest value
using products and sums. in the vector of priorities derived from their paired
comparisons matrix.
The pairwise comparisons for the Cultural crite-
rion intensities and the resulting priorities are illus-
3. Fundamentals of the AHP using absolute trated in Table 1 below. The values in the Idealized
judgment: Rating column are obtained by dividing each priority in
the Derived column by the largest, 0.569. The pri-
When one rates alternatives, they must be inde- oritized intensities become the standards from
pendent of one another. The presence or absence which one selects the appropriate one to describe
560 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

GOAL SELECT A score is computed for a city by multiplying


CITY
the priority of the selected intensity times the pri-
ority of the criterion and summing for all the crite-
ria, shown in the Total Score column in Table 2.
CULTURAL
.195
FAMILY
.394
HOUSING
.056
JOBS
.325
TRANSPORTA- The Priorities column is obtained by normalizing
TION
.030 the Total Score column by dividing by the sum
Extreme <100 mi Excellent Abundant
of the values in it. The selected intensities for each
Own<35% Sal.
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .906
Considerable
alternative, the ratings, are shown in Table 2
Great 101-300 mi Own>35% Sal. Above Avg.
.417 .521 .363 .664 1.000 below. The priorities corresponding to the ratings
Rent<35% Sal. Manageable
Significant
.188
301-750 mi
.179 .170
Average
.306 .396 are shown in Table 3.
Moderate >750 mi Below Avg. Negligible
Rent>35% Sal. .120
.106 .079 .056 .126
Tad Poor
.052 .065 4. Structural and functional dependence
Fig. 1. Choosing a city to live in using ratings.
Unlike rating alternatives where we compare
them to the best possible standard or ideal alterna-
tive, in the comparative judgment process we com-
pare each alternative with some or all of the other
a particular cityÕs performance with respect to Cul- alternatives. In that case an alternative that is ide-
tural (interpret this as cultural opportunities). ally poor on an attribute could have a relatively
Note that for this criterion of culture, judgment high priority when compared with still poorer
in still involved in deciding which intensity to pick. alternatives on that attribute but have low priority
Actual data can also be used in establishing the on another attribute where it is almost ideally
priorities, usually involving some form of idealiza- good but is compared with better-valued alterna-
tion where data is converted to priorities directly. tives. Thus the final rank of any alternative

Table 1
Deriving priorities for the cultural criterion categories
Extreme Great Significant Moderate Tad Derived priorities Idealized priorities
Extreme 1 5 6 8 9 0.569 1.000
Great 1/5 1 4 5 7 0.234 0.411
Significant 1/6 1/4 1 3 5 0.107 0.188
Moderate 1/8 1/5 1/3 1 4 0.060 0.106
Tad 1/9 1/7 1/5 1/4 1 0.030 0.052
Inconsistency = 0.112

Table 2
Ratings of alternative cities for each criterion
Alternatives Cultural Family Housing Jobs Transport Total score Priorities
(0.195) (0.394) (0.056) (0.325) (0.030) (Normalized)
Pittsburgh Significant <100 mi Own > 35% Average Manageable 0.562 0.294
Boston Extreme 301–750 mi Rent > 35% Above average Abundant 0.512 0.267
Bethesda Great 101–300 mi Rent < 35% Excellent Considerable 0.650 0.339
Santa Fe Significant >750 mi Own > 35% Average Negligible 0.191 0.100
T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570 561

Table 3
Priorities of the ratings in Table 2
Alternatives Cultural Family Housing Jobs Transport Total score Priorities
(0.195) (0.394) (0.056) (0.325) (0.030) (Normalized)
Pittsburgh 0.188 1.000 0.363 0.306 0.396 0.562 0.294
Boston 1.000 0.179 0.056 0.664 0.906 0.512 0.267
Bethesda 0.411 0.521 0.170 1.000 1.000 0.650 0.339
Santa Fe 0.188 0.079 0.363 0.306 0.120 0.191 0.100

depends on the quality of the alternatives with one with respect to each criterion and the other
which it is compared. Hence in making compari- alternatives proportionately less by using the
sons among alternatives, the priority of any alter- principal eigenvector and idealizing the results
native is influenced not only by how many by dividing by the largest one. Any new arrival
alternatives it is compared with but by their qual- is compared only with the ideal under each crite-
ity. rion and placed above or below that ideal. That
In general increasing copies of an alternative is, its value can be greater than one when neces-
indefinitely so that the universe is full of them sary. Presumably relative comparison should not
tends to depreciate their value unless there is syn- be used when it is known in advance that the
ergy among them so that the whole is more than alternatives are completely independent from
the sum of its parts. Synergy happens when the one another. Rank reversals in relative measure-
copies support each otherÕs functions, so that they ment occur in practice due to the number and
tend to increase each otherÕs value. The first, quality of other alternatives. The other alterna-
depreciation of value, is due to structural depend- tives have no influence on an alternative when it
ence and the second, appreciating value, is due to is being rated. In real life, the number of alterna-
functional dependence in which the alternatives tives and their quality, both reflected in the nor-
directly depend on each other like some indus- malization process, may affect the rank of any
tries do. of them. Thus again, the number of alternatives
How do we determine whether alternatives are and the quality of other alternatives cannot be in-
dependent? We compare them in pairs to see cluded as criteria in a multi-criteria setting be-
how strongly more a member of a pair influences cause then they would make an alternative
a third alternative with respect to a common crite- dependent on other alternatives. They must be
rion. That is what we do in the ANP to derive part of the structure and mathematical operations
dependence priorities. If there is no influence for of the process of evaluation. We note that the
any such comparison, the alternatives are inde- ANP automatically takes into consideration the
pendent. quality and number of alternatives. There are
A set of independent alternatives should never numerous occasions where for simplicity people
change rank when rated one at a time because try to force rank preservation and get wrong ran-
they are rated independently of one another. kings for alternatives that should be ranked as if
When they are compared in pairs, they become they are structurally dependent. Thus it is useful
structurally dependent. This is sometimes known in practice to carry out both kinds of rankings.
as conditional independence in probability the- When one obtains different answers one needs
ory. If alternatives are dependent, either structur- to think about whether one wants to be norma-
ally or functionally, anything can happen to their tive and prevent rank reversal for some justifiable
priorities and to their ranks when new ones are reason, or allow it to reverse for some practical
added. It is possible to treat alternatives when and desirable reason related to relative perform-
they are compared as if they are independent by ance rather than ideal performance. The president
assigning the best of the alternatives the value of a developing country was once told by an
562 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

interviewer that according to the US Congress his ence. Most multi-criteria decision-making
country was not doing well. He said our progress (MCDM) literature is concerned with independ-
should not be measured by the ideal standards of ent alternatives. Together with dependence that
the most developed country but relative to how requires a network structure, conditional inde-
we were last year and where we are now. That is pendence that is a special case of networks, but
the difference between the two modes. occurs in hierarchic structures, involves paired
As for the effect of number on ranking, Corbin comparisons and uses normalization in deriving
and Marley [3] offered the example of the lady priorities. The alternatives are dependent if when
who shopped for hats and found two hats she comparing them pairwise, some are perceived to
liked almost equally only to discover that there influence a third alternative with respect to a
were many copies of the one she liked better, given attribute more than others. Otherwise they
and she bought the other. One would say she are independent but conditionally so if pairwise
did not want to be seen wearing a hat that is worn compared.
by many other women, but she only became con-
scious of that because she learned that there were
many hats of the same kind. Now assume that in- 5. Normative versus descriptive theories
stead of the hats it was computers. In that case
she would not change her mind and buy the better MCDM a theory can be normative or it can be
computer regardless how many of it there are. descriptive. For example utility theory (MAUT,
The judgments are identical in both cases yet MAVT) is a normative theory whereas the AHP
the decision is different. What criterion can one and ANP are descriptive. A descriptive or positive
use to account for the difference without violating statement is a statement about what is that con-
independence? To say that the hats and comput- tains no indication of approval or disapproval
ers are independently evaluated one by one pre- (e.g., this paper is white; cows eat vegetables). It
vents one from recognizing that there are many is clear that a positive statement can be wrong.
others, yet number has an effect and any criterion A normative, or prescriptive ‘‘what ought to be’’
that takes it into consideration makes the alterna- statement tells us how things should be (e.g., peo-
tives dependent because of number. Changing ple ought to be honest). There is no way of dis-
oneÕs preference because of knowledge that there proving this statement. If one disagrees with it,
are many of the same alternative, assumes there he has no sure way of convincing someone who
is dependence. It appears that whether number believes the statement that he is wrong unless
should or should not influence the outcome is one goes out to take samples of what is actually
up to the decision maker, and should not be leg- happening and show that the assertions made
islated as a law because it can go either way, num- do not conform to reality. Religion is normative
ber can have an influence in one decision and not (categorical) about what should be, science is
in another. descriptive about what is. In nature that has no
Thus rather than being unconditionally inde- judgments to make or criteria to add or delete,
pendent of each other the alternatives are in fact the presence of many alternatives, that are other-
only conditionally independent. As we shall see wise independent of each other, can reduce or in-
below, dependence involves normalization. To re- crease the survivability and thus also the priority
quire that paired comparisons should yield re- of other living things. How anyone living at a cer-
sults as if the alternatives are unconditionally tain time in human progress can believe that they
independent often seems artificial and needs know everything so well that they then set down a
number crunching in a way that always produces criterion of rationality for all time illustrates why
rankings that are similar to absolute measure- utility theory has had profound intellectual prob-
ment. We see that there are three kinds of rela- lems.
tions among alternatives: independence, The attention given to rank has been a subject
conditional independence and functional depend- of debate for a long time. In the book by Luce
T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570 563

and Raiffa, Games and Decisions, published in utility advocates thought that with multi-criteria
1957, the authors present four variations on the decision-making this is no longer a problem.
axiom about whether rank should or should not To explain why ranks were reversing, they
be preserved with counterexamples in each case thought that there has to be new criteria or
and without concluding that it always should change in judgments. But that is not enough as
and why. we have seen. Keeney and Raiffa in their book
They write: [8] on page 272, in referring to their scaling con-
stants kY and kZ say that ‘‘If we assessed
Adding new acts to a decision problem under
kY = 0.75 and kZ = 0.25, we cannot say that Y is
uncertainty, each of which is weakly dominated
three times more important as Z. In fact we can-
by or is equivalent to some old act, has no effect
not conclude that attribute Y is more important
on the optimality or non-optimality of an old act.
than Z. Going one step further it is not clear how
and elaborate it with we would precisely define the concept that one
attribute is more important than another. The
If an act is non optimal for a decision problem
methodological approach of utility theory has
under uncertainty, it cannot be made optimal by
had intrinsic problems and paradoxes like those
adding new acts to the problem.
studied by the Nobel laureate Maurice Allais,
and press it further to and by Daniel Ellsberg. In its original form
multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) banned
The addition of new acts does not transform an
comparisons of criteria but took up doing that
old, originally non-optimal act into an optimal
after the AHP showed how and a new theory
one, and it can change an old, originally optimal
appeared with the name multi-attribute value
act into a non-optimal one only if at least one of
theory (MAVT).
the new acts is optimal.
If one can compare criteria one can with greater
and even go to the extreme with: ease also compare alternatives and there is no need
for utility functions assumed to exist to use in all
The addition of new acts to a decision problem
decisions. Measurement derived from paired com-
under uncertainty never changes old, originally
parison in the AHP is needed in the general frame-
non-optimal acts into optimal ones.
work of the ANP to handle these cases. The
and finally conclude with: new paradigm of relative measurement allows
one to include these previously ignored dependen-
‘‘The all-or-none feature of the last form may seem
cies.
a bit too stringent. . . a severe criticism is that it
yields unreasonable results.’’
These authors clearly sensed that it is not reason- 6. Need for normalization when an existing unit
able to force rank preservation all the time. of measurement is used for all the criteria
Utility theory with its interval scale outcomes,
and interval scales that cannot be summed, as- When there is a single unit of measurement for
sumes the strict independence of alternatives all the criteria, normalization is important for con-
and therefore ignores situations that its method- verting the measurements of alternatives to rela-
ology cannot handle such as the dependence of tive values and synthesizing in order to obtain
alternatives on alternatives either in number the right answer. Let us see first what happens
and kind or in function (as happens in paired when we go from scale measurements to relative
comparisons) or criteria on alternatives. In utility values with respect to two criteria by using the
theory alternatives are only rated one at a time same kind of measurement such as dollars for
and even then people noticed with examples that two criteria and give the measurements of three
rank should not always be preserved (consult alternatives for each. We then add them and then
references [1–22] by title). But multi-attribute normalize them by dividing by their total with
564 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

Table 4
Scale measurement converted to relative measurement
Alternatives Criterion C1 Criterion C2 Sums Relative value of sums
A1 1 3 4 4/18 = 0.222
A2 2 4 6 6/18 = 0.333
A3 3 5 8 8/18 = 0.444

respect to both criteria as in Table 4 to obtain their C1 and C2. We begin with two alternatives A and
relative overall outcome. B, whose priorities under C1 and C2 are respec-
tively, ai and bi, i = 1, 2 which in relative form
6.1. Normalization is basic in relative measurement are
, ,
X 2 X 2
To obtain the relative values in the last column ai ai and bi bi :
of this table, given that the numbers in the two col- i¼1 i¼1
umns under the criteria are represented in form The weights of C1 and C2 are respectively
relative to each other, the AHP requires that the , !
criteria be assigned priorities in the following X2 X 2 X2
ai ai þ bi ;
way. One adds the measurement values under each
i¼1 i¼1 i¼1
and divides it by the sum of the measurements with , !
respect to all the other criteria measured on the X
2 X
2 X
2
bi ai þ bi :
same scale. This gives the priority of that criterion i¼1 i¼1 i¼1
for that unit of measurement. Multiplying the rel-
ative values of the alternatives by the relative val- Synthesizing by weighting and adding yields for
ues of the criteria, and adding gives the final the overall priorities of A and B respectively
, !
column of Table 5. Each of the middle three col- X2 X 2
umns in Table 5 gives the value and the value nor- ða1 þ b1 Þ ai þ bi and
malized (relative value) in that column. ,
i¼1 i¼1
!
The outcome in the last column coincides with X
2 X
2

the last column of Table 4, as it should. More gen- ða2 þ b2 Þ ai þ bi :


i¼1 i¼1
erally, normalization is always needed when the
criteria depend on the alternatives as in the ANP. The ratio of these priorities is (a1 + b1)/(a2 + b2)
One thing we learn from this example is that if which only depends on their values and not on
we add new alternatives, the ratios of the priorities the priorities of the criteria. We note that the
of the old alternatives remain the same. Let us sum of the values of the alternatives is used to
prove it for example in the case of two criteria normalize the value of each alternative by

Table 5
Scale measurement converted to relative measurement
Alternatives Criterion C1 Criterion C2 Sums and AHP synthesized weighted relative values
Normalized Normalized normalized
weight = 6/18 weight = 12/18 sums
A1 1 1/6 3 3/12 4 4/18 4/18 = 0.222
A2 2 2/6 4 4/12 6 6/18 6/18 = 0.333
A3 3 3/6 5 5/12 8 8/18 8/18 = 0.444
T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570 565

dividing by it. But this value is also the numer- to deliberately cause rank reversal between A1
ator of the priority of that criterion and cancels and A2 with the ideal mode. We begin with A1
out in the weighting process leaving the sum of dominating A2. Introducing A3 we obtain reversal
the values of the alternatives under both criteria in the rank of A2 over A1 once with A3 between A1
in the denominator of the final result. This sum and A2 and once ranking the last of the three. This
in turn cancels in taking the ratio of the is the case of a phantom alternative (a car) A3 that
priorities of A and B. Now it is clear that if is more expensive and thus less desirable but has
we add a third alternative C, this ratio of the the best quality in terms of efficiency. People
priorities of A and B remains unaffected by the bought A1 because it is cheaper but A2 is a much
change in the priorities of the criteria due to better car because of its efficiency. Knowing that
C. We conclude that in this case where the pri- a (considerably) more expensive car A3 will be on
orities of the criteria depend on the alternatives, the market that also has only slightly better effi-
the ratio of the priorities of the alternatives is ciency than A2 makes people shift their preference
invariant to adding a new alternative. This invar- to A2 over A1, without anything happening that
iance should also hold in the stronger case when causes them to change the relative importance of
the criteria are independent of the alternatives, the criteria: efficiency and cost. Car A3 is called a
but the alternatives themselves are structurally phantom because it is never made, it is proposed
independent of one another. When proportional- in advertising in a way to induce people to change
ity is not maintained because of structural their overall choice, although their preferences re-
dependence for each criterion, rank can reverse. main the same as before. Note that we already
Thus when the ideal mode is used the ideal must showed that with consistent judgments that pre-
be preserved so that when new alternatives are serve proportionality among the old alternatives,
added, they are compared with the old ideal rank reversal could take place with no change in
allowing values to go above one, and thus the the weights of the criteria. With inconsistency pro-
ratios among the existing alternatives can be pre- portionality is no longer preserved and rank rever-
served. sal is even more natural. We recall that when
One can say that there is a natural law that dealing with intangibles, judgments are rarely con-
binds absolute measurement to relative measure- sistent no matter how hard one tries unless they
ment on several criteria and that law is normali- are forced to be consistent afterwards through
zation. However, normalization loses number crunching.
information about the original measurements, The following example shows that one can pre-
the original unit of measurement and its associ- serve the old judgments, but if the new alternatives
ated zero. For example, normalizing measure- have slightly different judgments, the rank will
ment in pennies and corresponding values of change with the ideal mode when the alternative
measurement in dollars yield the same relative that is ideal is changed. In Part A of the example,
values, losing the information that they come on introducing A3, the ideal changed from A2 to
from different orders of magnitude and have dif- A3 under the second criterion and A3 has the value
ferent units. 0.2 under the first criterion. In Part B of the exam-
ple, the only difference is that A3 has the value 0.3
7. Examples under the first criterion. The upshot is A2 is the
best choice in both after introducing the phantom,
Now we will discuss two examples. but in the first case A2 > A3 > A1 while in the second
case A2 > A1 > A3. As the phantom A3 becomes
7.1. Phantom alternatives as used in marketing more costly (Example––Part B) it becomes the
least desirable. Note, because of idealization, as
The following example illustrates an interesting A3 assumes values closer to those of A2, A1 would
and real occurrence in the world of marketing. A remain the more desired of the two alternatives A1
phantom alternative A3 is publicized in the media and A2.
566 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

Example––Part A

Example––Part B
T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570 567

7.2. A second example and the normalized ideal mode gives A = 0.30,
B = 0.35 and C = 0.34 again with rank reversal.
We begin with two alternatives A and B. We There is rank reversal with both the distributive
have on pairwise comparing them in Table 6 with and ideal modes because C is dominant with re-
respect to the criteria Efficiency and Cost whose spect to efficiency. Now the old ranks of A and
priorities are 0.5 each. B can be preserved if we maintain the original ide-
The question above is whether to normalize by als under each criterion and for each criterion we
dividing the weights of the alternatives by their compare the new alternatives only with the ideal,
sum (distributive mode) or idealize by dividing allowing its value to go above its value of one if
by the weight of the largest alternative (ideal necessary. One can even compare it with several
mode). The distributive mode gives A = 0.54 and of the old alternatives, preserving their relative val-
B = 0.46 while the normalized ideal mode gives ues but improving any inconsistency only with re-
A = 0.53 and B = 0.47. Now, if we add C that is a spect to these values and in view of that adopting a
relevant alternative under efficiency, because it final scale value for the new alternative. In that
dominates both A and B we obtain as in Table 7. case we have for the above example, Table 8.
The distributive mode gives A = 0.30, B = 0.36 Here there is no rank reversal. In this case we
and C = 0.34 with rank reversal between A and B, have idealized only once by using the initial set

Table 6
Example of rank reversal with change in ideal
568 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

Table 7
Example of rank reversal with change in ideal

Table 8
Preserving rank in the second example with no change in ideal

of alternatives but never after so that rank would another indication that preserving rank is often a
be preserved from then on unless the ideal alterna- forcing of the alternatives to conform to oneÕs
tive is deleted in which case we idealize again. expectations so one can track them for some kind
Which is the situation in real life? Not that it of convenience, than a natural process that must
should but that it turns out that way. How would comply with a general theorem proven with math-
we know if it is right or not? We know it by expe- ematics. It also casts a shadow on the belief that
riencing regret. Do we eliminate the regret if we rank preservation is an easy principle to advocate,
idealize once or many times, most likely not. We and that advocating and practicing it can lead to
would feel that we did not choose correctly. But harmful outcomes in the real world of which we
that would always be the case because process the- are not well aware.
ory teaches us that change is always happening Negative numbers on a Cartesian axis are a re-
and we can at best always sub-optimize in the face sult of interpreting negative numbers in an oppo-
of new alternatives (not just new criteria). site sense to the numbers that fall on the positive
side. How we make this interpretation is impor-
tant. Not long ago, Euler believed that negative
8. Negative priorities numbers were greater than 1 and mathematicians
of the 16th and 17th century did not accept them
In this section we wish to give the reader an idea as numbers, although Hindu mathematicians had
about thinking that extends applications of the invented and used them long before. In the AHP
AHP to negative numbers that also has an effect we deal with normalized or relative numbers that
on rank and its preservation and reversal. It is just fall between zero and one. They behave somewhat
T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570 569

like probabilities. In practice, probabilities are ob- estimate the larger one as a multiple of that unit.
tained through counting frequencies of occurrence. In a decision, one may have a criterion in terms
In the AHP the numbers are priorities that are ob- of which alternatives are found to contribute to a
tained by paired comparisons. One often derives goal in a way that increases satisfaction, and other
probabilities from paired comparisons in response alternatives contribute in a way that diminishes
to the question: ‘‘Of a pair of events, which is more satisfaction. Here there is symmetry between posi-
likely to occur’’. Thus the AHP enables one to de- tive and negative attributes. Some flowers have a
rive not only probabilities but also more general pleasant fragrance and are satisfying whereas
scales that relate to importance and to preference other flowers have an unpleasant smell and are dis-
in terms of higher-level criteria. satisfying; hence a need for negative numbers to
Although one does not speak of negative prob- distinguish between the two types of contribution.
ability, even as one may subtract a probability Because they are opposite in value to positive pri-
value from another as in subtracting probabilities orities we need a special way to combine the two.
from one, often one needs to use negative priorities When several criteria are involved, an alternative
[13]. While it is true that at first glance ranking a may have positive priorities for some as in benefits
set of objects: first, second, third and so on, nega- and opportunities and negative priorities for oth-
tive priorities do not appear to contribute much to ers as in costs and risks. These are treated sepa-
this idea of rank, positive and negative numbers rately in four different hierarchies in the AHP.
together give us a cardinal basis for ranking in Alternatively, one can use the ANP with numerous
terms of positive and negative, favorable and un- networks involving influence control criteria that
favorable measurements. enable one to ask the right question in making
In their paper on the Performance of the AHP paired comparisons particularly among clusters.
in Comparison of Gains and Losses, Korhonen They are then combined in a particularly practical
and Topdagi [9] who were not concerned with way using the top ranked ideal alternative for each
the use of negative numbers but only with ‘‘when of the benefits, opportunities, costs and risks
the utility of the objects cannot be evaluated (BOCR) to rate (not compare) them one at a time
on the same ratio scale’’, conclude that ‘‘ the with respect to strategic criteria that one uses to
AHP was able surprisingly well to estimate the rea- evaluate whether any decision on any matter
sonable utility values for objects. The origin sepa- should be made and if so which alternative is over-
rating utility and disutility scales was estimated as all the best one to adopt. These four rating prior-
well’’. ities are then used to synthesize the priorities of
Relative measurements are derived as absolute each alternative evaluated within the BOCR
scales and then transformed through division by framework. The benefits opportunities results are
their sum or by the largest of their values to abso- added and from their sum one subtracts the
lute numbers like probabilities on an absolute weighted sum of the costs and risk. The outcome
scale. Negative priorities can be derived from pos- may be negative.
itive dominance comparisons and from ratings just
as positive priorities are, except that the sense in
which the question is asked in making the compar- 9. Conclusions
isons is opposite to that used to derive positive
numbers. For example, to derive a positive scale This paper demonstrates that with relative
we ask which of two elements is larger in size or measurement, conditional independence or struc-
more beautiful in appearance. To derive negative tural dependence plays an important role in influ-
priorities we ask, which of two elements is more encing the rank of the outcome. Economic theory,
costly, or which of two offenses is a worse violation used to control and forecast downturns in
of the law. We cannot ask which is less painful be- economies, needs relative measurement to do its
cause in paired comparisons we need the lesser ele- calculations. The different up and down economic
ment to serve as the unit of comparison and must fluctuations can be better accounted for by
570 T.L. Saaty / European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557–570

including the effects of both structural and func- R.D. Luce, H. Raiffa, Games and Decisions, Wiley, New
tional dependence. The ANP is a useful tool for York, 1957.
doing that as I have shown in several works coau- [9] P. Korhonen, H. Topdagi, Performance of the AHP in
thored with economists. These works were pub- comparison of gains and losses, Helsinki School of
Economics, 2002, unpublished.
lished in journals but are available in electronic
[10] K.F. McCardle, R.L. Winkler, Repeated gambles, learn-
form by email if you will contact me. In this paper ing, and risk aversion, Management Science 38 (6) (1992)
we have shown how to formulate the problem of 807.
phantoms that has been raised by utility theorists [11] M. McCord, R. de Neufville, Empirical demonstration
who have no way to account for it, we also need that expected utility decision analysis is not operational, in:
Stigun Wenstop (Ed.), Foundation of Utility and Risk
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at a time rating of alternatives. theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon:
a reexamination, American Economic Review 72 (3) (1982)
569–573.
[13] T.L. Saaty, M. Ozdemir, Negative priorities in the analytic
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