CHAPTER 7 - TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE AND MEASURES OF ASSOCIATION

Test of Statistical Significance - Helps the researcher know if there is a relationship between IV to DV or
or it could have happened by chance.
Measure of Association - Tells the researcher how well the independent variable works in explaining the
dependent variable.

Test of statistical significance.

Null Hypothesis –

Two-part defense of its name:

1. No relationship exists in the population

2. Any apparent relationship found in a sample was produced by random processes when the
sample was drawn. Labeled by H˳

Alternative Hypothesis - The hypothesis that we have formulated and contrary to the null hypothesis
Labeled as Hₐ

Types of Error
Type 1 Error - Occurs when the researcher concludes that there is relationship in the population when,
in fact, there is NONE.

Type 2 Error - Occurs when the researcher infers that there is no relationship in the population when, in
fact, THERE IS.

Comparing Two Sample means

Standard Error of Difference - The Difference between the means of two samples.
Confidence Interval Approach - the investigator use the standard error to determine the smallest
plausible mean difference in the population. We compare the confidence intervals of two or more
sample means, If the intervals overlap, then we cannot reject the null hypothesis. If they do not
overlap then we cannot reject the null hypothesis.

P- Value Approach -- the researcher determines the exact probability of obtaining the observed sample
difference, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. If the probability value, or P-value,
is less than or equal to .05, then the null hypothesis CAN be rejected. If the P-value is greater than .05,
then the null hypothesis CANNOT be rejected.

Eyeball test of statistical significance - an informal test, if the sample difference is at least twice as large
as its standard error, then the result surpasses the .05 threshold.

One – Tailed Test of Statistical Significance - Is a statistical test in which the critical area of a distribution
is one-sided so that it is either greater than or less than a certain value, but not both.

Two – Tailed Test of Significance - Is a statistical test in which the critical area of a distribution is two-
sided and tests whether a sample is greater than or less than a certain range of values.

Test statistic - which tell us exactly how many standard errors separate the sample difference from zero.

To determine the exact probability of obtaining a given sample difference: (3 things to remember):
1. The difference associated with the alternative hypothesis. (Alternative hypothesis is the observed
sample difference which is the mean difference)

2. Difference claimedd by the null hypothesis which is equal to 0.

3. Standard error of the difference.

The Chi – Square

- Developed by the British statistician Karl Pearson in 1900

- determines whether the observed dispersal of cases departs significantly from what we would
expect to find if the null hypothesis were correct
- to analyze relationships between nominal or ordinal variables that may have several categories
or values.
- Goal: It is used to determine whether there is a significant association between the two
variables.

Measures of Association

Proportional Reduction in Error (PRE) - approach for gauging the strength of a relationship. A PRE
measure is a prediction-based metric that varies in magnitude between 0 and 1. The precise value of the
measure tells you how much better you can predict the dependent variable by knowing the independent
variable than by not knowing the independent variable
Symmetric Measure of Association - Takes on the same value, regardless of whether the IV is used to
predict the DV, or the DV is used to predict IV.
Asymmetric Measure of Association - models the IV as the causal variable and the DV as the effect.
Because asymmetric measures are better suited to the enterprise of testing causal hypotheses, they are
preferred to symmetric measures, which are agnostic on the question of cause and effect.

Lambda – Designed to measure the strength of a relationship between two categorical variables, at least
one of which is a nominal-level relationship.
Somers’s dyx - is used to gauge the appropriate strength of ordinal- level reationships.

 Concordant pair - is a pair of observations that is consistent with a positive relationship.

 Discordant Pair - is a pair of observations that is consistent with a negative relationship.
 Tied Pair - has different values on the independent variable but the same value on the
dependent variable.

Cramer’s V – idk hehehehheheh

Chapter 8 – Correlation and Linear Regression

Correlation Analysis – Gauges the direction and strength of a relationship between two interval – level
variables. Produces a measure of Association known as Pearson’s r.

Regression Analysis – Estimates the size of the effect of the IV to DV, regression analysis is very precise.
It produces a statistic, the regression coefficient, that reveals the exact nature of the relationship
between an independent variable and a dependent variable. A regression coefficient reports the amount
of change in the dependent variable that is associated with a one-unit change in the independent
variable. Strictly speaking, regression may be used only when the dependent variable is measured at the
interval level.

Scatterplot - a graph in which the values of two variables are plotted along two axes, the pattern of the
resulting points revealing any correlation present.

Pearson’s correlation coefficient – (ito yung tawag sa method if gusto mo gamitin ang correlation
analysis. ) Determines the strength and Direction of Interval-level relationship. Represented by r.

Bivariate regression – It is one of the simplest forms of statistical analysis, used to find out if there is a
relationship between two sets of values.

Regression Coefficient- The workhouse of Regression Analysis. (Slope of the Regression Line)

Two (2) rules in interpreting a regression coefficient.

1) Be clear about the units in which the two variables are measured.

2) Remember that the regression coefficient is expressed in units of dependent variable (y) not to
the independent variable (x)

R – Square - is the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable that is predictable from the
independent variable(s).

Dummy Variable - Is a variable for which all cases falling into a specific category assume the value of 1,
while all cases not falling into that category assume a value of 0.

Multiple Regression - It is used to predict the value of a response or dependent variable based on the
value of two or more predictor or independent variables.

Multicollinearity - Occurs when the independent variables are related to each other so strongly that it
becomes difficult to estimate the partial effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable.
CHAPTER 9 – Logistic Regression

Binary Variable – A dichotomous Variable, that can assume only two values. ( similar to Dummy
Variables)

Ordinary Least Squares - the methodological tool most appropriate for analyzing the relationship, and
then proceeds with the analysis. If both the independent and the dependent variables are measured by
nominal or ordinal categories—a common situation, particularly in survey research—the researcher
would most likely select cross-tabulation analysis. If both the independent and the dependent variables
are interval level. – IN SHORT IF BOTH IV AND DV ARE INTERVAL LEVEL VARIABLES THE OLS ANG
MEASUREMENT TOOL ANG GAMITIN.

The Logistic Regression Approach

Odds - are based on the number of occurrences of one outcome ex.(voting) divided by the number of
occurrences of the other outcome ex. (nonvoting).

Odds ratio - relationship between the odds at one value of the independent variable compared with the
odds at the next-lower value of the independent .

Common logarithms - Base-10 logs

Natural Logarithms – Base – e logs.

Finding the best Fit: Maximum Liklihood Estimation (MLE)

Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)- Takes the sample-wide probability of observing a specific value
of binary dependent variable and sees how well this probability predicts that outcome for each
individual case in the sample while ignoring the individual variable before it takes the IV into account
and determines again if – by knowing the IV – these predictions errors can be reduced.

Likelihood Function - A number that summarizes how well a model’s predictions fit the observed data.

Working with Probabilities using MEMs and MERs

MEMs (Marginal Effects at the Means) - We could examine or estimate the effect of one independent
variable on the probability of dependent variable while holding the other independent variables
constant.

MERs (Marginal Effects at Representative Values) - A second approach is to report changes in the
probability of the dependent variable across the range of an interesting independent variable—and to
do so separately, for discrete categories of a another independent variable

Effects of MERs

 Report changes in the probability of the dependent variable across the range of an
independent variable and to do so separately for another independent variable

 We could estimate the effect of two independent variables on the probability of the
dependent variable.