FTI Trends 2020 PDF

13th Annual Edition
Tech Trends Report

Strategic trends that will inﬂuence business, government,
education, media and society in the coming year.
The Year Ahead
A century ago marked the beginning of a new, exuberant era: the “Roaring Twen-
ties.” New technologies promised better ways of living. A hopeful optimism led
Americans to cast aside traditional moral standards, valuing conspicuous con-
sumption over austerity. Radio shows brought fresh ideas and music into homes
and cars transported Americans from their family farms to new opportunities in
the city. Americans weren’t the only beneficiaries of all this growth. Europeans
enjoyed great economic prosperity in the aftermath of World War I, while South
America became a beneficiary of new oil production. It seemed as though the
good times might last forever.
But the Roaring Twenties also brought Prohibition, a short-sighted regulatory
attempt to shape American society that resulted in the rise of organized crime and
kingpins like Al Capone. Fascism, authoritarian dictators and civil wars erupted in
Eastern Europe and China in the aftermath of collapsed empires. Technological
innovations, like the Panama Canal, moving assembly lines and wide-scale electric
power transmission, had created new wealth but it wasn’t evenly distributed. More
than two-thirds of Americans survived on wages too low to sustain everyday living,
and they didn’t have a safety net. High valuations and the promise of massive
returns lured enthusiastic investors, who bought company shares—lots of them—
using questionable loans. When share prices began their inevitable decline, people
panicked. By October 1929, the stock market crashed, setting in motion a Great
Depression, a rise in xenophobia and far-right extremism, and eventually, another
world war.
It’s difficult not to see unsettling parallels to our present-day world. But we are
positioned to make better choices this time around. A century ago, the tools of
modern strategic foresight hadn’t been invented yet. There was no method of
researching and categorizing trends that might influence the future. Rather than
studying plausible long-term implications, leaders made decisions in the moment.
Or they didn’t actively make decisions at all.
© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

With the benefit of both hindsight and strategic foresight, we now have We cannot know how future historians will remember the 2020s or what they will
frameworks and methods to identify risk and capitalize on emerging opportunity. name this decade. We can, however, choose to put forth our best efforts to plan
In fact, you’re holding one of those tools in your hand: our 2020 Tech Trends strategically for an era of technological innovation, measured growth, distributed
Report. It’s vitally important to make connections between emerging trends, your prosperity and solutions that will propel humankind forward.
industry and society, especially this year as we reach a tipping point for a number Now, more than ever, your organization should examine the potential near and
of technologies and trends that will shape the world of tomorrow. long-term impact of tech trends. You must factor the trends in this report into your
A sample of them include: strategic thinking for the coming year, and adjust your planning, operations and
 A.I. systems that can be trained in hours rather than weeks business models accordingly. Failing to monitor trends in a meaningful way will put
your competitive advantage, growth and survivability at risk.
 Widespread availability of algorithmically-traded funds
Think exponentially. Act incrementally. Always remember that the future isn’t yet
 Off-planet human civilization
written. You and your team have the power to build your best possible futures today.
 Bioengineered animals, plant-based proteins and indoor robot-powered farms
Sincerely,
 Autonomous cars, trucks, ships and fighter jets
 Exascale computing
 Quantum computing
Amy Webb
 Functional 5G networks
Founder, The Future Today Institute
Connections must also be made between technologies and many external Writing from my New York office on January 13, 2020
uncertainties that will continue to loom:
 The outcome of the 2020 U.S. election
 A heightened scrutiny of chief executives and boards
 Frequent extreme weather events
 The proliferation of superbugs and new epidemics
 The rise of extreme political movements and ideologies
 Unstable U.S.-China relations
 Unresolved tensions between Russia and the West
 An ongoing clash between old laws and new technologies
3
Key Takeaways
 Welcome to the Synthetic Decade. are all developing new services and tools ranging from robotic process automa-
From digital twins to engineered DNA to plant-based pork sausages, a deep tion to offering GPUs (graphics processing unit) in the cloud. Amazon’s upcom-
push to develop synthetic versions of life is already underway. We will look back ing project, AWS For Everyone—a low-code/no-code platform built to enable
on the 2020s as an era that brought us synthetic media, such as A.I.-generated anyone to create business applications using their company data—will be a huge
characters whose storylines we follow on social media and humanlike virtu- differentiator when it launches.
al assistants who make our appointments and screen our calls. Soon, we will
 China has created a new world order.
produce “designer” molecules in a range of host cells on demand and at scale,
which will lead to transformational improvements in vaccine production, tissue The growth of China’s economy might be slowing, but it would be a mistake to
production and medical treatments. Scientists will start to build entire human assume that the People’s Republic of China has lost its influence. In the past
chromosomes, and they will design programmable proteins. Foods made from two decades, China overtook the U.S. as the world’s dominant exporter on every
synthetic techniques rather than artificial ingredients will make their way to the continent with the exception of North America. Its imports matter, too: This
mainstream, and you’ll have a wide array of choices: humanely engineered foie year China should surpass the U.S. and become the world’s largest movie mar-
gras, flora-derived ice cream and molecular whiskey made in a lab. Every indus- ket, with a projected $10 billion in revenue. China has a rapidly-expanding middle
try will be impacted as our synthetic decade brings new business opportunities class, an educated and trained workforce and a government that executes on
and strategic risks. Companies will need to ask challenging ethical questions long-term plans. China will continue to assert prolific dominance in 2020 across
and examine the security risks for synthetic material in order to earn public multiple areas: diplomacy throughout Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin and South
acceptance, government approvals and commercial appeal. America and Europe; the development of critical digital infrastructure; artificial
intelligence; data collection and scoring; bioengineering and space.
 You’ll soon have augmented hearing and sight.
While you shouldn’t expect to see everyone wearing smart glasses by this  Home and office automation is nearing the mainstream.
time next year, you will certainly start to notice some important developments An Alexa in every pot and a self-driving car in every garage? Nearly 100 years
throughout 2020, beginning with audio augmented reality (or AAR). Think of it ago Herbert Hoover promised Americans they would prosper under his pres-
as augmented reality for audio. Smart earbuds and glasses will digitally overlay idency: a chicken in every pot, and a car in every garage. Today, A.I.-powered
audio (like directions, notifications, and verbal descriptions of what — or who — digital assistants, home security systems and voice-controlled microwaves are
you’re looking at) without others hearing and while you continue to hear what’s being manufactured—and priced—for the masses. Robots used to be the stuff
going on around you. Not only will AAR help runners stay safe, it offers a sophis- of science fiction, but this year major appliance manufacturers, component
ticated alternative to traditional hearing aids. Smart glasses won’t look like the makers, and of course, the big tech companies will make compelling arguments
minimalistic Google Glass headband, but rather a stylish pair of frames you’d find for why our homes and offices should be outfitted with sensors, cameras and
at your local optometrist’s office. Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Face- microphones. Next-generation network infrastructure should speed adoption.
book all have connected systems on their product roadmaps. The connected The global market could reach $214 billion by 2025. Which company’s operating
glasses and AAR ecosystem offer tremendous new business opportunities—and system controls all those devices, and what happens to the data being collected,
could signal disruption to longtime market leaders in frames, prescription lens- will spark public debate.
es, hearing aids and headphones.
 Everyone alive today is being scored.
 A.I.-as-a-Service and Data-as-a-Service will reshape business. In order for our automated systems to work, they need both our data and a
The future of digital transformation is rooted in two key areas: A.I.-as-a-Service framework for making decisions. We’re shedding data just by virtue of being
and Data-as-a-Service. Microsoft, IBM, Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple alive. From our social media posts, to our unique biology (posture, bone and

capillary structures, vocal pitch and cadence), to our credit card debt, to our  It’s the end of forgetting.
travel habits, thousands of data points are analyzed to score us. Automated sys- After a decade of posting photos, videos and written messages on social
tems use our scores to make decisions for or about us, whether it’s what price media, it’s now clear that our recent histories will persist far into the future. It
to show us on e-commerce sites or if we might pose a security risk at a football isn’t possible to truly delete or erase our pasts. A centerpiece of the European
game. We anticipate that in the coming year, regulators will take a deeper inter- Union’s landmark internet laws, the “right to be forgotten,” emerged as a stan-
est in scoring. dard intended to force search engines to delete links to personal information if
it wasn’t in the public interest. But in 2019, the European Court of Justice ruled
 We’ve traded FOMO for abject fear.
in Google’s favor, making it much harder for people to request that negative, pri-
In the 2010s Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Reddit, Foursquare and Twitter vate or misleading information about them is removed from internet searches. A
caused a “fear of missing out.” Those very same networks (save for the now-de- Google search team member put it more bluntly: “We’re not a truth engine.”
funct mobile social app Foursquare) are being used for intentional—and some-
times unwitting—scaremongering. On Facebook, Baltimore Mayor Bernard  Our new trust economy is being formed.
“Jack” Young helped propagate a wild—and totally false—story on Facebook We will soon see a host of new tools built to engender and ensure—but also ma-
about a white van abducting girls for human trafficking and for selling body nipulate—our trust. In the wake of deepfake videos and other manipulated con-
parts. Numerous times, President Donald Trump has used Twitter to stoke fear, tent, a new ecosystem devoted to trust is in the process of being formed. There’s
telling the public about armed “large [sic] Caravans” that were “invading” Ameri- a lot at stake: After hearing an A.I. fake his CEO’s voice on the phone, a gullible
ca. On Twitter, he has publicly threatened the leaders of other countries: employee transferred $243,000 to a scammer. In the coming year, sentinel
“I will totally destroy and obliterate the [sic] Economy of Turkey” – October 7, 2019 surveillance systems will algorithmically detect manipulated content—for a fee.
Meanwhile, governments and interest groups around the world will try to shape
“North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his
the future development of A.I. and blockchain technology, proposing legislation
desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please
and “bill of rights”manifestos.
inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more power-
ful one than his, and my Button works!” – January 2, 2018
“To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES
AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW
THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER
A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE &
DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” – July 22, 2018
Social media posts like these are often repeated at rallies and protests, which
only serve to amplify our fear. The Anti-Defamation League discovered a 226%
increase in acts of vandalism and hate crimes in the counties hosting Trump
rallies. We’re continually told that we need protection: from unsafe countries,
people and even our neighbors. Fear is good for business. Amazon bought smart
doorbell company Ring for $1 billion, and it now has lucrative partnerships with
more than 400 U.S. police departments to share recognition tech and surveil-
lance video from users’ homes.
5
Table of Contents
04 Key Takeaways 37 Liability Insurance for A.I.
12 How To Use Our Report 37 Ambient Surveillance
14 Strategic Questions to Ask 38 Processes, Systems and
16 Methodology Computational Neuroscience
24 Artificial Intelligence 38 Creating 3D Models from

Flat 2D Images
32 Enterprise
38 Neuro-Symbolic A.I.
32 Using A.I. to Speed the Algorithms and Systems
Process of Scientific
Discovery 38 Real-Time Machine Learning
32 A.I. in the Cloud 39 Natural Language

Understanding (NLU)
33 A.I. at the Edge
(or A.I. Not in the Cloud) 39 Machine Reading
Comprehension (MRC)
33 Robotic Process Automation
39 Natural Language
33 Digital Twins and Cognitive Generation (NLG)
Twins in the Enterprise
40 Real-Time Context in
33 Robots with Cognitive Skills Machine Learning
33 Advanced A.I. Chipsets 40 General Reinforcement
34 Serverless Computing Learning Algorithms
34 Proprietary, Homegrown 40 Deep Learning Scales
A.I. Languages 40 Faster and More Powerful
34 Proliferation of Open Source Frameworks
Franken-Algorithms 40 Reinforcement Learning
35 Companies Manipulating A.I. and Hierarchical RL
Systems for Competitive 41 Continuous Learning
Advantage
41 Multitask Learning
35 Corporate Biometric Spoofing
41 Generative Adversarial
35 Bots Networks (GANs)
36 Business Ecosystem 41 New Generative Modeling
36 Global Rush to Fund A.I. Techniques
36 Algorithm Marketplaces 41 Probabilistic Programming
Languages
37 Marketplace Consolidation
41 Machine Image Completion
37 Fragmentation

42 Hybrid Human-Computer 49 Geopolitics, Geoeconomics 62 Vast Differences in 75 Universal Genetic Databases
Vision Analysis and Warfare Verification Systems 76 Persistent Workplace and
43 Predictive Machine Vision 49 The New Mil-Tech 63 Behavioral Biometrics School Surveillance
43 Automated Machine Industrial Complex 63 Scoring Vulnerable Populations 77 Food Recognition Systems
Learning (AutoML) 49 National A.I. Strategies 63 Surveillance Scoring-as-a- 78 Emerging Digital Interfaces
43 Customized Machine Learning 51 The Race to Establish Service (SSaaS) 81 Mixed Reality
43 Graph Neural Networks A.I. Rules 63 Bias in Scoring Systems 82 Virtual Reality
43 Intelligent Optical 51 Algorithmic Warfare 64 Conflicting Norms, Standards 82 Augmented Reality
Character Recognition 51 Making A.I. Explain Itself and Regulations for Scoring
83 Holograms
44 Content and Creativity 51 Using A.I. in Critical Systems 64 Intentionally Opaque
Methodologies 83 360-degree Video
44 A.I. for the Creative Process 52 China’s A.I. Rules
66 Recognition Technologies 86 Synthetic Media and Content
44 Generative Algorithms for 54 Society
Content Production 70 Faceprints 91 Synthetic Media Technologies
54 Artificial Emotional
44 Generating Virtual Intelligence 70 Voiceprints 91 Speech Synthesis
Environments from 54 Personal Digital Twins 71 Automatic Voice Transcription 91 Modulating Custom Voices
Short Videos
54 Problematic Data Sets 71 Bone Recognition 91 Deep Behaviors and Predictive
44 Automated Versioning Machine Vision
55 A.I. to Catch Cheaters 71 Bioacoustic Recognition
44 Automatic Voice Cloning 92 Generative Algorithms for
and Dubbing 55 Algorithms Designed to Target 71 WiFi Recognition Voice, Sound and Video
Vulnerable Populations 72 Proximity Recognition
45 Spotting Machine-Written 92 Mapped Synthetic Environments
Text 55 A.I. Still Has a Bias Problem 72 Two-factor Biometric-based 94 Synthetic Media and Society
45 Algorithmic Fact Checking 55 A.I. Systems Intentionally Authentication
Hiding Data 94 Synth-pop Makes a Comeback
45 Datamining Crowds 72 Gesture Recognition
56 The Rise of Undocumented 94 Simulating Human Experiences
45 Deep Linking 73 Object Recognition in
A.I. Accidents Computational Photography 95 Synthetic Voice Fraud
46 Consumer Products 56 A.I. and Digital Dividends 73 Biometric Camouflage 95 Synthetic Sex Tapes
and Services
56 Prioritizing Accountability 74 Personality Recognition 95 Synthetic Property Rights
46 Ambient Computing Expands and Trust and Legal Protections
46 Ubiquitous Digital Assistants 74 Accent Recognition
58 Scoring 95 Using Synthetic Media to
46 A.I. for Drug Development 75 Emotional Recognition get around Copyright Laws
62 Persistent Tracking
47 A.I. for Interviews and Scoring 75 Responsive Recognition 95 Synthetic Media Marketplaces
Technology
47 Consumer-Grade A.I. 62 Scoring Agencies are 96 Truth Decay in an Era of
Applications on the Rise 75 Affective Computing Synthetic Media
75 Genetic Recognition
7
Table of Contents
98 Content 133 Cannabis Supply Chains 156 Digitally Retouching History 183 Drone Operation Centers
100 IRL Geography Reshapes the 133 Cannabis Compliance Systems 158 Quantum and Edge 183 Drones-as-a-Service
Virtual World 133 Specialized Cannabis 162 Near-Real-Time Application 183 Personal Home Drone
101 The End of Attention Metrics CRM Platforms Environments Surveillance
102 Digital Frailty 133 Banking for Cannabis 162 A.I. at the Edge 183 Flying Beyond Visual
104 Trigger Warnings Dispensaries 162 Hyper-Local Data Centers Line of Sight
106 Abusing the Notification Layer 133 Digital Makeup for Edge Computing 184 Real-Time Mapping
107 Cancel Culture and its Backlash 134 Vaping and E-cigarettes 162 Quantum Supremacy 184 Drones for Dangerous
134 Nootropics 162 Quantum for the Masses and Hard-To-Reach Areas
108 Social Media Platforms
134 Neuroenhancers 164 5G, Robotics and the Industrial 184 Clandestine, Disappearing
110 Decentralized Content Drones
Platforms 135 Digital Addiction Internet of Things
166 5G Triggers a Surge 184 Flying Taxis
111 Platform Ownership 136 Sextech
of New Businesses 185 Autonomous Underwater
112 Platform Switching and 138 Journalism Vehicles
Demographic Shifts Threaten 167 Capturing IIoT Metadata
140 Continued Media Consolidation 185 Drone Air Lanes
Established Social Networks 168 Robots as a Service (RaaS)
141 The Subscription 185 Follow Me Autonomously
113 Platforms Forced to Pick a Side Economy Matures 169 Collaborative Robots
115 Censorship in the Digital Age 170 Autonomous, Programmable 185 Drone Swarms
142 Optimizing for New
117 Detecting Authentic Activity Types of Search Robot Swarms 186 Transportation Trends
118 Sports and Games 143 Investigating the Algorithms 171 Robotic Process Automation 188 Cognitive Active
172 Self-Assembling Robots Safety Features
120 eSports 144 Journalism as a Service
173 Robot Compilers 188 Electric Vehicles Cause
122 Infinite Gameplay 145 One-To-Few Publishing Electricity Demand Spikes
123 Sports Tech 146 Popup Newsrooms 174 Soft Robotics
188 Transportation-as-a-Service
124 Toys and Limited-Edition 175 Commercial Quadrupedal
News Products Robots 188 Forced Updates To Firmware
126 Connected Toys and Software
148 Demands for Accountability 176 Personal Robots
127 Gamified Health Toys and Trust and Robot Butlers 189 Analog Fallbacks
and Games 189 Exponential Growth in
149 The First Amendment 177 Ethical Manufacturing
128 Smart Toys and in a Digital Age Autonomous Miles Data
Privacy Concerns 178 Robot Rights
150 Censorship 189 Autonomous Last
130 Vices 179 Smart Dust Mile Logistics
152 The Proliferation 180 Transportation
132 CBD-Infused Products of Splinternets 189 Mixed-Use Sidewalks
182 Drones and Drone Lanes
132 Scaling Cannabis Infusion 154 Content Moderation in the
Techniques Name of National Security 183 Medical Supply Drone Delivery 190 Supersonic Flights

190 Autonomous Ships 215 Geoengineering 230 Artificial Trees 241 Superbugs, Viruses and Phages
192 Logistics and Supply Chain 216 Storing Captured Carbon 230 Intelligent Packaging 241 Building a Comprehensive
194 Automating the Supply Chain with Algae and Bacteria 231 Insect Agriculture and Human Cell Atlas
195 Sustainability in Supply Chain 216 Converting Carbon Dioxide Bug Proteins 244 Biointerfaces and Wearables
and Logistics into Building Materials 231 Cellular Agriculture 246 Biointerfaces
196 Rebuilding the Cold Chain 216 Stratospheric Aerosol 231 Off-Planet Terraforming 247 Nanomesh Temporary Tattoos
Scattering with Sulfur Dioxide
197 Additive Manufacturing 232 Synthetic Biology 247 Dissolving Bioelectronics
and Printing 216 Injecting Clouds with and Genomic Editing
Sea Salt Particles 247 Programmable, Ingestible,
198 Energy 234 Synthetic Biology and Implantable Microbots
216 Reflecting Sunlight
200 Grid Management 235 Single-Nucleotide 248 Smart Threads
217 Sand for Glacier Melt Polymorphism (SNP) Profiling
201 Reversing Environmental 248 Skinput
Rules and Regulations 217 Fertilizing the Oceans 235 Super-Fast Molecule Discovery 249 Wearables
202 Green Tech 217 Enzymes to Eat Ocean Trash 235 Designer Cells 250 Cloud-Based Wireless Body
203 Renewable Energy 218 Corporate Environmental 236 Molecular Robotics Area Networks
Responsibility
204 Charging Stations 236 Building Full Chromosomes 250 Adaptive Wearable
219 Sustainability as Technologies
205 Ultra-High-Voltage Direct Corporate Identity 236 Creating Synthetic Wombs
Current and Macro Grids 236 Synthetic Age Reversal 250 Commercial Full-Body
219 Corporates Adopt Exoskeletons
206 Better Batteries Net-Zero Energy 237 Genomic Editing
207 Wireless Charging 251 Wearable Air Conditioners
219 Sustainable Shipping 238 Gene Vandalism
Everywhere 251 Brain-Machine
219 Corporate Meteorologists 239 Prime Editing Interfaces (BMIs)
207 Energy Trading Platforms
for Blockchain 219 Reducing Corporate 239 Organoid Development 251 Smartwatches
Reliance on Plastics
207 Zero Carbon Natural Gas 239 Super Pigs 252 Rings and Bracelets
222 AgTech & Global Supply of Food
207 Floating Nuclear Energy Plants 239 Unregulated Pet Cloning 252 Hearables / Earables
224 Aeroponic Growing
207 Subsea Power Grids 239 A Shortage of Genome Storage 252 Head Mounted Displays
225 Vertical Farming Grows Up
208 Climate and Geoscience 240 DNA Storage 253 Connected Fabrics
225 Indoor Plant Factories
210 The Anthropocene Epoch 240 Microbe-Engineering 253 Smart Belts and Shoes
225 Big Data for Better Produce as a Service
211 Unpredictable Sea 253 Smart Gloves
Level Rise 227 Precision Agriculture 240 Microbiome Extinction
253 Touch-Sensitive Materials
212 Extreme Weather Events 228 Deep Learning for 240 Genetic Screening
Food Recognition 254 The Decade of Connected
214 Human Migration 241 Biological DVRs Eyewear
Patterns Shift 229 Big Tech Gets into Farming
9
Table of Contents
256 Health and Medical 275 Encrypted Messaging Networks 285 A.I.-Powered Automated 303 Interoperability Initiatives
Technologies 275 Vanishing Messages Hacking Systems 304 Corporate Foreign Policy
258 Big Tech Gets 275 Digital Eavesdropping Rights 286 Hijacking Internet Traffic 305 Multilateral Science
Into Healthcare 286 DDoS Attacks on the Rise and Technology Acts
276 Data Ownership
259 Patient-Generated 286 Third-Party Verified Identities 306 Overhauling Government
Health Data 276 Digital Self-Incrimination
287 Ransomware-as-a-Service Tech Infrastructure
260 Automated Medical 276 Differential Privacy
287 Decentralized Hacktivists 308 China’s Quest for Global
Transcription 277 Defining Online Harassment Cybersovereignty
261 Hospitals as Tech Innovators 277 Safeguarding and Verifying 287 Targeted Attacks on
Voice Interfaces 309 Strategic Guidance:
262 Home Automation Leaked Data The Case for Establishing
277 Promoting Anonymity 287 Weird Glitches the U.S. National Office
266 Digital Emissions
287 Open Source App of Strategic Foresight
266 Interoperability 278 Trolls
Vulnerabilities 314 Smart Cities
266 Retrofitting Old Homes 278 Verification
288 Global Cybersecurity Pacts 316 Smart City Initiatives
with New Tech 278 Data Retention Policies
288 Proliferation of Darknets 317 Strengthening Municipal
266 Forced Bundling and 278 Compliance Challenges
Planned Obsolescence 288 Bounty Programs Cyber-Security Efforts
and Unrealistic Budgets
266 Real Estate and Home Building 288 Magnetic Tape 320 Blockchain
278 Revenge Porn
Powered by Platforms Supply Shortages 328 Digital Citizenship
279 Drone Surveillance
266 Smart Cameras 289 Biometric Malware 330 Self-Sovereign Identity
279 Influencing Future
267 Smart Camera News Networks 289 State-Sponsored 331 Web 3.0
Privacy Laws
Security Breaches
267 Networked Smart Devices 280 Security 333 Tokenizing Value
289 Critical Infrastructure Targets
267 Interactive Fitness Equipment 284 Zero-Day Exploits 334 Tokens For Smart Royalties
289 Offensive Government Hacking and Freelancers
267 The End of Remote Control on the Rise
294 Geopolitics 335 Immutable Content
267 Smart Appliance Screens 284 Zero-Knowledge
Proofs Go Commercial 296 Antitrust Probes 336 Content Provenance and
270 Privacy and Lawsuits
284 Gaining Access Permanent Archiving
274 The End of Biological Privacy 298 Policy Uncertainty
to Backdoors 337 Distributed Computing
275 Public Entities Selling 299 Regulating Data Ownership For a Cause
285 Remote Kill Switches
Private Data
285 Insecure Supply Chains 301 Digital Dividends 338 Financial Technologies
275 Connected Device to Fund Universal Basic and Cryptocurrencies
Security Loopholes 285 Data Manipulation Becomes
Income Plans 340 Tech Companies Acting
the Greater Threat
275 Tech Workers Fighting 302 U.S. and Global Like Banks
for Privacy 285 Consumer Device Targeting
Election Security 341 Financial Inclusion
285 Cyber Risk Insurance
342 The Rise of Quant Funds 357 China’s Space Ambitions
343 Regulating Open Banking 357 Ultra-Long Space Missions
344 Social Payments 358 Weak Signals for the 2020s
345 Countries Creating Digital 360 Events That Will Shape 2020
Decentralized Currencies
363 About the Authors
346 Automated Credit
364 How to Think More
Risk Modeling
Like a Futurist
346 Crypto Trading Bots
365 About The Future
346 Crypto-Mining Malware Today Institute
348 Space and Off-Planet Trends
353 Imaging Space
353 Lots (and Lots) of
Satellite Launches
353 Crowded Skies
353 Internet from Space
354 Space-Based
Quantum Internet
354 Space Junk
354 Bigger, Bolder Telescopes
354 Asteroid Mining for Resources
354 The New Space Economy
354 Made in Space
355 Space Tourism
355 Galactic Ride Sharing
355 Seeking a New Life in
the Off-World Colonies
355 Fuel-Free Space
Propulsion Systems
356 Mercury Rain
356 Galactic Gas Stations
356 Space Forces
11
How to Use Our Report 1 8
Each trend offers eight important strategic insights for your organization.
The Future Today Institute’s 13th annual Tech Trends Report positions
organizations to see disruption before it fully erupts. Use our trend analysis,
scenarios and foresight frameworks as a springboard for deeper strategic 2
planning. This report will help you identify new business opportunities,
emerging threats to your organization, and potential partners and collaborators 6
3 5
in and adjacent to your industry.
7
4
We recommend using our 2020 Tech Trends Report as part of a formalized
strategic foresight process within your organization.
For a complete list of trends by industry, and to search by individual

technology, visit futuretodayinstitute.com/trends.
1. Years On The List 4. Examples 8. Action Matrix

The number of years we have been tracking Real-world use cases, some of which should FTI’s analysis of what action your organiza-
this trend as it has evolved. This measure- be familiar to you. tion should take. Our quadrants include:
ment is an indication of how the trend is 5. What’s Next Act Now
progressing. Ample evidence and data.
FTI’s analysis of how this trend will develop
2. Key Insight over time. This trend is already mature.
Concise description of this trend that can be 6. The Impact Informs Strategy
easily understood and repeated to others. Mounting evidence and data.
Describing the next-order implications of Longer-term uncertainties remain.
3. Why It Matters this trend.
Explanation of this trend’s significance to Keep Vigilant Watch
7. Watchlist Mounting evidence and data.
you and your organization.
Individuals, research teams and organiza- However, the impact is likely nearer-term.
tions most deeply involved in this trend. Revisit Later
Less evidence and data.
However, this trend has the potential to
cause great disruption.
Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes Relevant to Your Organization
In this report, you will find many scenarios imagining future worlds as these trends
SCENARIO • AMY WEBB
evolve and converge. Scenarios offer you fresh perspective on emerging trends
and choices that still have yet to be made. They challenge you to ask “what if,”
and illuminate ways opportunities to prevent, mitigate, leverage or capitalize on
1
When There’s Truly
change in the future. The Future Today Institute uses a wide variety of data across
numerous sources to create our scenarios: statistics, patent filings, academic and
Nowhere to Hide
archival research, policy briefings, conference papers, structured interviews with
lots of people and even critical design and speculative fiction. 2 MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
All of the cameras and sensors seem futuristic and

1. Headline fantastic at the beginning, promising to optimize
your diets and keep intruders at bay. We spend a de-
A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes. cade acquiring new technologies that make our lives
a little more easy and convenient, and so we silence
2. Temporal and Emotive Tags those nagging voices asking us what we’re giving up
in exchange for all those new features. Eventually,
A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is
we realize that while we weren’t paying attention,
optimistic, neutral, pessimistic or catastrophic. our homes were turned into ventures for marketing,
3 which is now constant and intrusive. We see custom
video advertisements everywhere there’s a screen:
3. Descriptive Elements
the smart mirrors in your bathroom and closets, the
A narrative of our imagined world, with a description of what developments led us retractable screens we carry in our pockets, even
to this point in our future history. the smart window panes we had to install in our
houses to block out extreme solar heat. There is
nowhere to hide anymore, because some entity is al-
ways watching, always listening, always there. We’re
uncomfortable in our own homes, the one place we
used to feel most safe and relaxed.
13
Strategic Questions to Ask
To make practical use of this year’s  Can we use this research to build What can we learn from their failures
report, readers should ask and an- support and alignment for our and best practices?
swer some fundamental questions decision-making process? Supporting my team/ business unit
about what these trends mean to their Making future investments
organization in the near future. Don’t
 Does this trend signal emerging
discount a trend simply because, at
 What is our current business model, disruption to our organization’s
first glance, it doesn’t seem to connect and how must it change as this trend culture, practices and cherished
directly to you or your field. As you evolves? beliefs?
review the analysis in this report with  Where should we invest our  Does this trend indicate future
your cross-functional team, ask and resources as this trend evolves? disruption to the established roles
answer the following questions when it  Are there opportunities to acquire and responsibilities within our
comes to: startups, research teams and those organization?
Guiding our strategic planning process at the forefront of this trend?  Will our workforce need to change
Growing our business because of this trend? If so, does our
 How does this trend support or
current operating structure allow
challenge our current strategic  How is our strategy providing a us to make the necessary changes,
direction? competitive edge and helping to whether that means downsizing or
 What new emerging threats or move our organization forward into upskilling? If we must attract new
existential risks might result from the the future? talent, are we positioned to attract
evolution of this trend?  How will the wants, needs and and retain the workers we will need?
 What are the consequences if our expectations of our consumers, Leading our industry into the future
organization fails to take action on customers and partners change as a
result of this trend?
 How does this trend impact our
this trend?
industry and all of its parts?
 Considering this research, is our  How does this trend help us think
about innovation?
 What new uncertainties—about our
strategic planning process too
industry, organization, customers,
limited in scope or in timing? Facilitating strong partnerships partners—can our organization now
Informing our decisions  Where does this trend create address after reading this report?
 How can our organization make potential new partners or  How do we leverage this trend
incremental decisions on this trend collaborators for us?
in a positive way for both our
today and ongoing, as it evolves?  How does this trend introduce new organizations and the greater good?
 How might global events—politics, adversaries we've never seen before?
climate change, economic shifts—  How are organizations in adjacent
impact this trend, and as a result, our industries addressing this trend?
organization?
NEED ACTIONS NEED INSIGHTS
Decision Matrix
MORE
Taking Strategic Actions on Trends
Many organizations prefer to take a BUILD CAPABILITIES DEVELOP STRATEGY

“wait and see” approach after seeing
How will we develop expertise to act? How do our How do these trends support or challenge our
new research, and that’s a mistake. We
stakeholders understand these trends, and what current strategic direction?
recognize how difficult it is to take risks
are their expectations of us?
during a time of political, technological
and economic uncertainty. Your team
must take some action, even if it’s small,
Sample Action Sample Action
to build momentum so that you may
confront the future on your own terms. Develop an assessment to learn how well posi- Ask your teams to look at your current strategy
tioned your current team is to address this trend. through the lenses of these trends. Have each
For that reason, the Future Today Insti-
Determine what changes are necessary. develop a list of questions and recommendations.
tute created a simple framework for our
CERTAINTY ABOUT TRENDS
clients. We have a singular goal: think

exponentially, act incrementally.
FIND DISRUPTION BRAINSTORM IDEAS

Where can we find emerging threats and risks How can we develop a new product or service
as these trends evolve? In what new and novel that leverages these trends as they evolve?
ways could our operations be jeopardized in the Where opportunities are on the horizon?
future?
Sample Action Sample Action
Host a disaster scenario writing workshop. Host a design thinking workshop. Challenge
Identify plausible pessimistic and catastrophic teams to invent new concepts, ideas and solu-
outcomes. tions to society's future problems.
LESS
15
Methodology
The Future Today Institute’s Seven-Step Forecasting Funnel The Future Today Institute’s strategic forecasting model uses quantitative
and qualitative data to identify weak signals and map their trajectories
01 into tech trends. Our seven steps alternate between broad and narrow
scopes, which include: framing your work, identifying weak signals at
Framing
the fringe, spotting patterns, developing trend candidates, calculating a
trend’s velocity, developing scenarios, and finally, backcasting preferred
02
outcomes.
Discovering The steps of our methodology can be used independently to surface new
trends or to generate scenarios, or they can be used to guide your strate-
03 gic planning process. To identify trends, use steps 1 – 4. To imagine future
worlds, use steps 1 and 5.
Analyzing
1. Converge: Determine your questions, time horizons and stakeholders.

04
2. Diverge: Listen for weak signals at the fringe. Make observations and
Clarifying harness information from the broadest possible array of sources and on
a wide variety of topics.
05
3. Converge: Uncover hidden patterns in the previous step. Use FTI’s
CIPHER framework to identify trends. Look for contradictions, inflec-
Calculating
tions, practices, hacks, extremes and rarities.
06 4. Diverge: Ask questions to learn how the trends you’ve identified inter-
sect with your industry and all of its parts.
Planning
5. Converge: Calculate the velocity and trajectory of change that are both
internal and external to your organization.
07
6. Diverge: Write scenarios to describe impacts and outcomes in the
Action future.
7. Converge: Backcast preferred outcomes. Define your desired future
and then work backwards to identify the strategic actions connecting
that future to your present.

Trend vs. Trendy: Knowing the Difference
It isn’t always easy to distinguish between trend and trendy, especially now as we transition
to ambient computing, autonomous machines and a wide variety of digital voices. You need
to make sound decisions today, but that’s a difficult ask since much of our technological
ecosystem is still being developed.
The Four Laws of Technology The easiest way to cut through hype is to remember that trends are driven by fundamental
Trends were first published in The shifts in demographics, the economy, technology, politics and social movements. They are
new manifestations representing our fundamental human needs. Trends form steadily over
Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s many years, and they do not necessarily follow a linear path. Trendy phenomena (or fads)
Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, are much more transient. They appear suddenly, capture our attention and distract us with
intense possibilities—only to burn out just as quickly as they arrived. Fads move along a
by Amy Webb. common cycle: insider discovery, trending on social networks, influencer bragging, media
hysteria and mainstream acceptance, until we are disillusioned because the fads never
meet our broader expectations.
Strategic trends share a set of conspicuous, universal features, which we call FTI’s Four
Laws of Tech Trends.
The Four Laws of Tech Trends
1. Trends are driven by basic human needs.
2. Trends are timely, but they persist.
3. Trends are the convergence of weak signals over time.
4. Trends evolve as they emerge.
Typically all four features are present in an authentic strategic trend.
17
Future Forces Theory: The 11 Macro Sources of Disruption
The 11 Macro Sources of Disruption
FTI’s Future Forces Theory explains how disruption

usually stems from influential sources of macro change.
It is a way of understanding where disruption is coming
from and where it’s headed next. The sources of macro
change represent external uncertainties—factors that Wealth Education
broadly affect business, governing and society. They can
Distribution
skew positive, neutral and negative.
We use a simple tool to apply the future forces theory to
organizations as they are developing strategic thinking Media & Infrastructure
on trends. It lists 11 sources of macro change that are Telecommunications
typically outside of a leader’s control. For example: as we
think about the evolution of artificial intelligence, how will
geopolitics and infrastructure impact development?
Organizations must pay attention to all 11 as they track
trends. Leaders must connect the dots back to their
industries and companies and position teams to take Environment Technology Government
incremental actions.
Demographics Geopolitics
Public
Economy
Health

The 11 Macro Sources of Disruption Include:
Wealth Distribution Geopolitics Media and Telecommunications

The distribution of income across a population’s house- The relationships between the leaders, militaries and gov- All of the ways in which we send and receive information
holds, the concentration of assets in various communities, ernments of different countries, the risk faced by investors, and learn about the world. This includes social networks,
the ability for individuals to move up from their existing companies and elected leaders in response to regulatory, news organizations, digital platforms, video streaming ser-
financial circumstances and the gap between the top and economic or military actions. vices, gaming and e-sports systems, 5G and the boundless
bottom brackets within an economy. other ways in which we connect with each other.
Economy
Education Shifts in standard macroeconomic and microeconomic Technology
Access and quality of primary, secondary, and post-sec- factors. We recognize technology not as an isolated source of
ondary education, workforce training, trade apprentice- macro change, but rather, as the connective tissue linking
ships, certification programs, the ways in which people are Public Health business, government and society. For that reason, we
learning and the tools they’re using and what people are Changes in the health and behavior of a community’s pop- always look for emerging tech developments, as well as tech
interested in studying. ulation in response to lifestyles, popular culture, disease, signals within the other sources of change.
government regulation, warfare or conflict and religious
Infrastructure beliefs.
Physical, organizational, and digital structures needed
for society to operate (bridges, power grids, roads, wifi Demographics
towers, closed-circuit security cameras), the ways in which Observing how birth and death rates, income, population
the infrastructure of a city, state or country might impact density, human migration, disease and other dynamics are
another’s. shifting communities.
Government Environment
Local, state, national, and international governing bodies, Changes to the natural world or to specific geographic
their planning cycles, their elections and the regulatory areas, including extreme weather events, climate fluctua-
decisions they make. tions, sea level rise, drought, high or low temperatures and
more. (We include agricultural production in this category.)
19
How To Do Strategic Planning Like A Futurist
For any given uncertainty about the future—whether that’s risk, opportunity or growth—
it’s best to think in the short and long-term simultaneously. To do this, the Future Today
Institute uses a framework that measures certainty and charts actions, rather than simply
marking the passage of time as quarters or years. That’s why our timelines aren’t actually
lines at all—they are cones.
As we think about the future, we build a cone with four distinct categories:
1. Tactics
2. Strategy
3. Vision
4. Systems-Level Evolution
We start by defining the cone’s edge using highly probable events for which there is already
data or evidence. The amount of time varies for every project, organization and industry. In
this example, we’ve used 12-24 months as a place to start. Because we can identify trends
and probable events (both within a company and external to it), the kind of planning that
can be done is tactical in nature, and the corresponding actions could include things like
redesigning products or identifying and targeting a new customer segment.
Tactical decisions must fit into an organization’s strategy. At this point in the cone, we are
a little less certain of outcomes, because we’re looking at the next 24 months to five years.
This area should be most familiar to strategy officers and their teams: We’re describing
traditional strategy and the direction the organization will take. Our actions include defining
priorities, setting resource allocation, making any personnel changes needed and the like.
Lots of teams get stuck cycling between strategy and tactics, and that makes their organi-
zations vulnerable to disruption. If you aren’t simultaneously articulating your vision and a
systems-level evolution, another organization will drag you into their version of the future.
Think exponentially. Act incrementally.

The Future Today Institute's Time Cone for Strategic Planning
The Time Cone represents years and certainty on the axes, and it represents actions and s
work streams in the interior space. The years are malleable, depending on a project’s Les
parameters and scope. At the start of every foresight project, we calibrate the Time Cone

to each organization.

y
ertaint
dC
nce an
e
ta, Evid
Da

e
Mor
STRATEGIC SYSTEMS-LEVEL DISRUPTION
TACTICAL VISION
PLANNING AND EVOLUTION
12 - 24 months 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years 10+ years
Example time ranges
21
Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are the authors own and are not representative of the
greater organizations in which they have been employed. The names of compa-
nies, services and products mentioned in this report are not necessarily intended
as endorsements by the Future Today Institute or this report’s authors.
The Future Today Institute’s 2020 Trends Report relies on data, analysis and mod-
eling from a number of sources, which includes: sources within public and private
companies, securities filings, patents, academic research, government agencies,
market research firms, conference presentations and papers, and news media
stories. Additionally, this report draws from the Future Today Institute’s 2020 EMT
Trends Report and from earlier editions of the FTI Trend Report. FTI’s reports are
occasionally updated on the FTI website.
FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are refer-
enced in this report. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the entities
listed in this presentation.
Any trademarks or service marks used in this report are the marks of their respec-
tive owners and who do not endorse the statements in this report. All rights in
marks are reserved by their respective owners. We disclaim any and all warranties,
express or implied, with respect to this report.

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23
01 Artificial Intelligence

32 Enterprise 38 Processes, Systems and 42 Hybrid Human-Computer 47

Consumer-Grade A.I.
Computational Neuroscience Vision Analysis Applications
32 Using A.I. to Speed the
Process of Scientific 38 Creating 3D Models from 43 Predictive Machine Vision 49 Geopolitics, Geoeconomics
Discovery Flat 2D Images and Warfare
43 Automated Machine
32 A.I. in the Cloud 38 Neuro-Symbolic A.I. Learning (AutoML) 49 The New Mil-Tech
Algorithms and Systems Industrial Complex
33 A.I. at the Edge 43 Customized Machine Learning
(or A.I. Not in the Cloud) 38 Real-Time Machine Learning 49 National A.I. Strategies
43 Graph Neural Networks
33 Robotic Process Automation 39 Natural Language 51 The Race to Establish
Understanding (NLU)
43 Intelligent Optical
A.I. Rules
33 Digital Twins and Cognitive Character Recognition
Twins in the Enterprise 39 Machine Reading 51 Algorithmic Warfare
Comprehension (MRC)
44 Content and Creativity
33 Robots with Cognitive Skills 51 Making A.I. Explain Itself
39 Natural Language
44 A.I. for the Creative Process
33 Advanced A.I. Chipsets
Generation (NLG)
51 Using A.I. in Critical Systems
44 Generative Algorithms for
34 Serverless Computing
40 Real-Time Context in
Content Production 52 China’s A.I. Rules
34 Proprietary, Homegrown Machine Learning 44 Generating Virtual 54 Society
A.I. Languages Environments from
40 General Reinforcement 54 Artificial Emotional
Short Videos
34
Proliferation of Learning Algorithms Intelligence
Franken-Algorithms 44 Automated Versioning
40 Deep Learning Scales 54 Personal Digital Twins
35
Companies Manipulating A.I.
40 Faster and More Powerful
44 Automatic Voice Cloning
Systems for Competitive and Dubbing
54 Problematic Data Sets
Open Source Frameworks
Advantage 55 A.I. to Catch Cheaters
40 Reinforcement Learning
45
Spotting Machine-Written
35 Corporate Biometric Spoofing
and Hierarchical RL
Text 55
Algorithms Designed
to Target Vulnerable
35 Bots 41 Continuous Learning
45 Algorithmic Fact Checking
Populations
36 Business Ecosystem 45 Datamining Crowds
41 Multitask Learning 55 A.I. Still Has a Bias Problem
36 Global Rush to Fund A.I.
41 Generative Adversarial
45 Deep Linking
55 A.I. Systems Intentionally
36 Algorithm Marketplaces Networks (GANs) 46 Consumer Products Hiding Data
and Services
37 Marketplace Consolidation 41
New Generative Modeling 56 The Rise of Undocumented
Techniques 46 Ambient Computing Expands A.I. Accidents
37 Fragmentation
41
Probabilistic Programming 46 Ubiquitous Digital Assistants 56 A.I. and Digital Dividends
37 Liability Insurance for A.I. Languages
46 A.I. for Drug Development 56 Prioritizing Accountability
37 Ambient Surveillance 41 Machine Image Completion and Trust
47 A.I. for Interviews
25
HIGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
13TH YEAR ON THE LIST
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Artificial Intelligence
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
KEY INSIGHT ago. Because A.I. itself isn’t the trend, we

identified different themes within A.I. that
Artificial intelligence (A.I.) represents the
you should be following. You will also find
third era of computing, one that could
the technology intersecting with other
usher in a new period of productivity and
trends throughout this report.
prosperity for all. It has potential to act as a
force multiplier for good, helping to address
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
humanity’s most complex challenges: how
to mitigate climate change, how to increase In its most basic form, artificial intelligence
the global food supply, how to develop safer is a system that makes autonomous deci-
infrastructure, how to manage cyberse- sions. A.I. is a branch of computer science
curity threats and how to diagnose and in which computers are programmed to do
eradicate diseases. However, A.I. also things that normally require human intel-
carries risks: gender, race and ethnic bias ligence. This includes learning, reasoning,
continues to negatively influence the crim- problem solving, understanding language
inal justice system; countries differ in their and perceiving a situation or environment.
regulatory approaches; it enables the cre- A.I. is an extremely large, broad field, which
ation and spread of fake news and misinfor- uses its own computer languages and relies
mation; it threatens privacy and security; on computer networks modeled on our
and it will inevitably displace swaths of the human brains.
workforce. There is no central agreement
WHY IT MATTERS
on how A.I. should develop during the next
A.I. represents the third era of computing. The global A.I. market should grow 20% an-
several decades. Many facets of artificial
intelligence have made our list since we nually between 2020 and 2024, while global
first started publishing this report 13 years economic growth generated by A.I. could
reach $16 trillion by the end of this decade.

 DEEPER DIVE This is problematic for researchers covering While we haven’t seen an anthropomorphic Machine Learning and Deep Learning
A.I. developments and for managers who A.I. walk out of DeepMind’s lab, we should
A.I. pioneer Arthur Samuel popularized the
Weak and Strong A.I. must make decisions about A.I. consider these projects as part of a long
idea of machine learning in 1959, explain-
There are two kinds of A.I.—weak (or “nar- transition between the narrow A.I of today
In fact, we have already started to see ing how computers could learn without
row”) and strong (or “general”). Narrow A.I. and the strong A.I. of tomorrow.
real-world examples of functioning AGI. In being explicitly programmed. This would
systems make decisions within very narrow 2017 researchers at DeepMind, a lab owned mean developing an algorithm that could
parameters at the same level as a human or Neural Networks and Deep Neural
by the same parent company as Google, someday extract patterns from data sets
better, and we use them all day long without Networks
announced that A.I. had taught itself how and use those patterns to predict and
even realizing it. The anti-lock brakes in to play chess, shogi (a Japanese version of A neural network is the part of a system in make real-time decisions automatically. It
your car, the spam filter and autocom- chess) and Go (an abstract strategy board which information is sent and received, and took many years for reality to catch up with
plete functions in your email and the fraud game)—all without any human intervention. a program is the set of meticulous instruc- Samuel’s idea, but today machine learning
detection that authenticates you as you The system, named AlphaZero, quickly tions that tell a system precisely what to do is a primary driver of growth in A.I.
make a credit card purchase— these are all became the strongest player in history for so that it will accomplish a specific task.
Deep learning is a relatively new branch of
examples of artificial narrow intelligence. each game. The team has been publishing How you want the computer to get from
machine learning. Programmers use spe-
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) de- important discoveries at an impressively start to finish—essentially, a set of rules—is
cial deep learning algorithms alongside a
scribes systems capable of decision-mak- fast pace. Last year, the DeepMind team the “algorithm.”
corpus of data—typically many terabytes of
ing outside of narrow specialties. Dolores in taught A.I. agents to play complex games, A deep neural network is one that has many text, images, videos, speech and the like.
Westworld, the Samantha operating system such as the capture the flag “game mode” hidden layers. There’s no set number of Often, these systems are trained to learn
in Her, and the H.A.L. supercomputer from inside the video game Quake III. They, like layers required to make a network “deep.” on their own, and they can sort through a
2001: A Space Odyssey are anthropomor- humans, had learned skills specific to the Deep neural networks tend to work better variety of unstructured data, whether it’s
phized representations of AGI—but the ac- game as well as when and how to collabo- and are more powerful than traditional making sense of typed text in documents
tual technology doesn’t necessarily require rate with other teammates. The A.I. agents neural networks (which can be recurrent or or audio clips or video. In practical terms,
humanlike appearances or voices. had matched human player ability using feedforward). this means that more and more human
There is no single standard that marks the reinforcement learning, in which machines
processes will be automated, including the
distinction between weak and strong A.I. learn not unlike we do—by trial and error.
writing of software, which computers will
soon start to do themselves.
27
Artificial Intelligence cont.
Companies Building the Future of A.I.

Nine big tech companies—six American,
and three Chinese—overwhelmingly drive
the future of artificial intelligence. In the
U.S., it’s the G-MAFIA: Google, Microsoft,
Amazon, Facebook, IBM and Apple. In China
it’s the BAT: Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent.
Those nine companies drive the majority
of research, funding, government involve-
ment and consumer-grade applications of
A.I. University researchers and labs rely on
these companies for data, tools and fund-
ing. The Big Nine A.I. companies also wield
huge influence over A.I. mergers and acqui-
sitions, funding A.I. startups and supporting
the next generation of developers.
Artificial Intelligence
and Personal Data
Artificial intelligence requires robust, clean
data sets. For example, manufacturers with
large data sets can build machine learning
models to help them optimize their supply
chain. Logistics companies with route
maps, real-time traffic information and
weather data can use A.I. to make deliveries
more efficient.
Nvidia’s A.I. turns your hand-scrawled doodles into photorealistic landscapes.

But a significant amount of our personal For this reason, we believe that companies During his 2020 presidential run, business- THE IMPACT
data is also driving the growth of A.I. Called will eventually unify our PIIs into more com- man Andrew Yang proposed that Congress
The long-term impact of A.I. will depend
“personally identifiable information,” or PIIs, prehensive “personal data records,” or PDRs pass a new law establishing data as a prop-
on choices we make in the present. As ANI
these are discrete units of data we shed for short. This single unifying ledger would erty right for individuals, giving them the
(artificial narrow intelligence) becomes a
simply by using our computers, phones pull together all of our PIIs, i.e. all of the data right to protect how it is collected and used,
ubiquitous presence in business, education,
and smart speakers. Our personal data is we create as a result of our digital usage and a way for them to share in the economic
research and governing, it is imperative that
treated differently around the world. The (think internet and mobile phones). But it value generated as a result of their data.
leaders make informed decisions.
California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), would also include other sources of informa-
which took effect in January of 2020, tion: our school and work histories (diplo- Enabling Future Generations to Inherit
limits the ways in which companies can use mas, previous and current employers); our Your Data
personal data, while the European Union’s legal records (marriages, divorces, arrests); Your PDR could be heritable—a compre-
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) our financial records (home mortgages, hensive record passed down to and used
requires companies to gain consent before credit scores, loans, taxes); travel informa- by your children. This would enable an A.I.
collecting and processing someone’s per- tion (countries visited, visas); dating history system to learn from your family’s health
sonal data. (online apps); health information (electronic data, which could someday aid in preci-
health records, genetic screening results, sion medicine. It could also help track and
From Small Bits to Huge Bytes exercise habits); and shopping history (on- untangle a family member’s finances after
As smart gadgets become affordable and line retailers, in-store coupon use). their death. Heritable PDRs could also help
recognition systems more common in the families pass down memories of loved ones
workplace and public spaces, a significant Who Will Own Your Data in the Future? to further generations.
amount of personal data will be collected Ideally, you would be the owner of your PDR.
Imagine being able to set permissions on all
– orders of magnitude more than is today. It would be fully interoperable between
of the content you consume—news stories,
By 2025, it is estimated that 463 exabytes systems, and the big tech companies would
movies, songs, sporting events, lectures—
of data will be created every single day – simply act as custodians. However, given
and then passing down insights to your
that’s equivalent to 77 billion Netflix movie the lack of enforceable norms, standards
children or other loved ones. The content
streams. However, more data isn’t necessar- and guardrails, we believe that in the future
we consume shapes our worldviews and ac-
ily better, especially when data saturation your PDRs would be owned and held by one
tions, and a window into that content could
doesn’t effectively tell a complete story. of the big tech companies.
help others more deeply understand you, for
better or worse.
29
Artificial Intelligence cont.
WATCHLIST FOR SECTION Facebook AI lab, Facebook Soumith Chinta- Language Model Test Room (GLTR), MIT-IBM mons Science and Technology Committee,
la, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Federal Watson AI Lab, MIT's Computer Science and U.S. Army Futures Command, U.S. Army
Algorithmia, Algorithmic Warfare
Trade Commission, France’s AI for Humanity Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Mohamed Research Laboratory, U.S. Department of
Cross-Functional Team, Alibaba Cloud, Ali-
strategy, Future of Life Institute, General bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence Energy, U.S. Joint AI Center, U.S. National
baba, Alipay, Allianz, Amazon Polly, Amazon
Language Understanding Evaluation com- in Abu Dhabi, Molly, Multiple Encounter Artificial Intelligence Research and Devel-
SageMaker Autopilot, Amazon A9 team,
petition, GenesisAI, Germany’s national AI Dataset, Mythic, Narrative Science, National opment Strategic Plan, U.S. National Insti-
Amazon AWS Lambda, Amazon DeepCom-
framework, GitHub, Google Cloud, Google Institute of Informatics in Tokyo, National tute of Standards and Technology (NIST),
poser, Amazon Rekognition, Apple, Arria
Ventures, Google’s Bidirectional Encod- Science Foundation, New York University U.S. National Security Commission on AI,
NLG, Automated Insights, Automation Any-
er Representations from Transformers, Stern School of Business Professor Arun U.S. National Security Strategy and National
ware, Autoregressive Quantile Networks for
Google Brain, Google Cloud AutoML, Google Sundararajan, New York University, Nike’s Security Commission on AI, U.S. presiden-
Generative Modeling, AWS, AWS Textract,
Cloud Natural Language API, Google Coral Celect and Invertex, Nuance AI Marketplace, tial candidate Andrew Yang, U.S. Space
Baidu Cloud, Baidu, Baidu Text-to-Speech,
Project, Google DeepMind team, Google Nvidia, Nvidia’s EGX platform, Nvidia’s Force, Uber, United Arab Emirates’s Minister
Blue Prism, Bonseyes, Brazil’s eight national
Duplex team, Graphcore, Harvard University, GauGAN, ObEN, OpenAI, Oracle, Organisa- of State for Artificial Intelligence Omar
AI laboratories, California Consumer Privacy
HireVue, Huawei, IBM Project Debater, IBM tion for Economic Co-operation and Devel- Sultan Al Olama, United Arab Emirates’s
Act (CCPA), Carnegie Mellon University, Cen-
Research, IBM Watson Text-to-Speech, opment, Palantir, Pan-Canadian Artificial sweeping AI policy initiatives, University of
tral Intelligence Agency, Cerebras Systems,
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Intelligence Strategy, Princeton, PyTorch, British Columbia Department of Chemistry,
Child Exploitation Image Analytics program,
In-Q-Tel, Intel, Intel Capital, International Qualcomm, Quantiacs, Reddit, Resemble University of California-Berkeley, University
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, China’s
Computer Science Institute, Israel’s national AI, Russia’s Agency for Strategic Initiatives, of Copenhagen, University of Maryland;
C.E.I.E.C., China’s New Generation Artificial
A.I. plan, Italy’s interdisciplinary A.I. task Russia’s Federal Security Service, Russia’s University of Montreal, University of Texas
Intelligence Development Plan, China’s Peo-
force, Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastruc- Ministry of Defense, Russia’s National AI at Arlington’s algorithmic fact-checking
ple’s Liberation Army, China’s state broad-
ture (JEDI), Kenya’s A.I. taskforce, LaPlaya strategy, Salesforce, SambaNova Systems, research, Victor Dibia, applied AI researcher
caster CCTV, Citi, CloudSight, Columbia
Insurance, Lyrebird, Mayo Clinic, McDonald’s Samsung, Samsung AI Center, Samsung at Cloudera Fast Forward Labs, Wave Com-
University, Crosscheq, CycleGAN, Defense
Dynamic Yield, Megvii, MGH and BWH Center Ventures, SAP, Saudi Arabia’s national AI puting, Wikipedia, Y Combinator.
Advanced Research Projects Agency, Deep-
for Clinical Data Science, Michigan State strategy, Sensetime, Siemens MindSphere,
Mind, Descript, Drift, Electronic Frontier
University, Microsoft Azure Text-to-Speech Singapore’s AI national strategy, Skolkovo
Foundation, Electronic Privacy Informa-
API, Microsoft Azure, Microsoft Machine Institute of Science and Technology, Stan-
tion Center, European Union’s AI Alliance,
Reading Comprehension dataset, Micro- ford University, Tamedia, Tencent, Turing
European Union’s General Data Protection
soft’s HoloLens, Massachusetts Institute of Award, Twitter, U.K. Parliament’s Select
Regulation, Facebook and Carnegie Mellon
Technology (MIT), MIT and Harvard’s Giant Committee on AI, U.K.’s House of Com-
University’s Pluribus Networks, Facebook,

31
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Enterprise
 TRENDS A.I. in the Cloud

Corporate leaders within the A.I. ecosystem
Using A.I. to Speed the Process have been racing to capture A.I. cloud-
of Scientific Discovery share—and to become the most trusted
Running experiments with several variables provider of A.I. on remote servers. Enter-
often requires tiny, methodical tweaks to prise customers are likely to stick with their
measurements, materials and inputs. Grad- initial vendor, because the more data that a
uate students might spend hundreds of te- machine learning system has access to, the
dious hours making small adjustments again better decisions it will learn to make over
and again until a solution is found—a waste time. For that reason, the race is on. In the
of their cognitive abilities. Increasingly, A.I. West, the field is led by Amazon, Microsoft
systems are being used in research labs to and Google, followed by companies includ-
speed the process of scientific discovery. ing Apple, IBM, Salesforce, SAP and Oracle.
Materials scientists at the University of In Asian markets, Alibaba and Baidu dom-
British Columbia used a robot overseen by inate the A.I. cloud, although in January of
an A.I. algorithm to rapidly test a new kind 2020 telecom equipment and smartphone
of solar cell and log results. Based on what maker Huawei announced a management
each experiment revealed, an algorithm change to focus on what it calls a “full-stake
determined what to change next. A process cloud platform.” It’s a $250 billion industry
China’s CCTV featured digital twin hosts on a popular TV show.
that might have taken 9–12 months was and quickly growing. NYU Stern School of
completed in five days. Google’s DeepMind Business professor Arun Sundararajan says
developed a way of testing and modeling it best: “The prize will be to become the
the complex folding patterns of long chains operating system of the next era of tech.”
of amino acids, solving a problem that has
vexed scientists for many years. DeepMind’s
system, AlphaFold, will allow scientists to
synthesize new drugs to treat diseases and
develop enzymes that might someday break
down pollution.

A.I. at the Edge Google’s Duplex, which is a bot designed to Robots with Cognitive Skills readily able to work on A.I. projects and
(or A.I. Not in the Cloud) make routine phone calls to other people, should promise faster and more secure
As humans and machines work more closely
is an example of an RPA. Amazon uses RPA processing. Projects that might otherwise
Imagine a self-driving car in a busy neigh- together, there are opportunities for robots
to sift through resumes before prioritizing take weeks could instead be accomplished
borhood: A car driving 25 miles per hour is to learn and adapt new skills based on their
top candidates for review. In banking, Blue in a matter of hours. Cerebras has built an
moving 36.7 feet per second. For a car to environments. Machine learning, deep re-
Prism and Automation Anywhere help staff A.I. chip with 1.2 trillion transistors, 400,000
capture an image of a stop sign, process it inforcement learning, computer vision and
with repetitive work functions. RPA will processor cores, 18 gigabytes of SRAM and
in the cloud and then make a decision would advancements in simulated environments
eventually augment staff and shift their interconnects (tiny connection nodes) that
require a consistently fast connection. But will soon lead to robots with early-stage
productivity into higher gear. This will allow can move 100 quadrillion bits per second.
if that image capture and analysis happened cognitive abilities. Applications include en-
media and entertainment companies to (That’s an astounding amount of compo-
on-site, it would likely not only be faster, vironmental cleanups, exploring dangerous
make better real-time predictive decisions nents and power.) Amazon’s homegrown A.I.
but safer. For that reason, such companies terrain and assisting first responders.
in a host of different areas, from customer chip, called Inferentia, and Google’s Tensor
as Google and Nvidia are building networks
service to cost savings. Processing Unit (or TPU) were specifically
that can make these kinds of local A.I.-driv- Advanced A.I. Chipsets built for the companies’ cloud services.
en processing and decision-making on
Digital Twins and Cognitive Today’s neural networks have long required
Market research company Tractica esti-
devices, without any interaction of data in
Twins in the Enterprise an enormous amount of computing power,
the cloud or the Internet—a technique that mates that the A.I. chip market will quadru-
have taken a very long time to train, and
uses what’s known as “edge computing.” Digital twins are virtual representations ple to $6.7 billion in 2022, from $1.66 billion
have relied on data centers and comput-
Processing data directly on devices will be of real-world environments, products or in 2018. While marketing pre-trained chips
ers that consume hundreds of kilowatts
important in the future for health care, au- assets, used for a host of purposes. Man- to businesses will speed up commercializa-
of power. That ecosystem is starting to
tomotive and manufacturing applications, ufacturers use digital twins to manage the tion and, as a result, will further R&D, the
change. Enter a suite of new processors
because it would potentially be faster, and performance and effectiveness of machines challenge is that developers might need to
found on a SoC—“system on a chip.” Big tech
therefore safer. and plants, while city planners use them to wrestle with many different frameworks
companies like Huawei, Apple, Microsoft,
simulate the impact of new developments rather than a handful of standard frame-
Facebook, Alphabet, IBM, Nvidia, Intel and
works in the near-future, especially if the
Robotic Process Automation and roads. The Singapore government
Qualcomm, as well as startups like Graph-
uses them for urban operations. Siemens various device manufacturers all decide
Robotic Process Automation (RPA) enables core, Mythic, Wave Computing, SambaNova
MindSphere supports digital twins for a to start creating unique protocols. We do
businesses to automate certain tasks and Systems and Cerebras Systems, are all
number of industries. What’s on the horizon: anticipate an eventual consolidation, pitting
processes within offices, which allows em- working on new systems architecture and
cognitive twins, which not only simulate just a few companies—and their SoCs and
ployees to spend time on higher-value work. SoCs, and some of which come pre-trained.
environments but help design solutions. languages—against each other.
In short, this means that the chips are more
33
Enterprise cont.
Serverless Computing to build and release their own software

packages now, as well as unique program-
Amazon Web Services, Alibaba Cloud,
ming languages for A.I. applications. Uber
Microsoft’s Azure, Google Cloud and Baidu
released its own probabilistic programming
Cloud are rolling out new offerings and
language, Pyro, which it wrote in Python. It’s
packages for developers, hoping to make it
a move that signals likely fragmentation in
easier and more affordable for a wide swath
the future of the A.I. ecosystem, not unlike
of A.I. startups to launch their ideas into
our current rivalry of OSX vs Android, and
the marketplace. Amazon’s AWS Lambda
earlier Mac vs PC camps. Businesses will
lets teams run code for virtually any type
find it increasingly cost-prohibitive and
of application or backend service—without
difficult to switch between A.I. frameworks
provisioning or managing servers or hands-
and languages.
on administration. Microsoft’s Functions
architecture for Azure supports myriad
programming languages, scales on demand
Proliferation of
and only charges for active compute time. Franken-Algorithms
This isn’t sitting well with some engineers, Algorithms are simply rules that define
though, who are worried about losing and automate the treatment of data. They
Scientists at MIT trained an A.I. psychopath named “Norman” using only the image control. are built using “if this, then that” logic that
captions from a subreddit that's known for disturbing content.
a computer can understand and process.
Proprietary, Homegrown Here’s an easy example: If a website read-
A.I. Languages er’s IP address is based in Baltimore, the
rules allow that reader to freely access the
Python is a leading language with lots of
site; if the IP address is based in Belgium,
pre-built libraries and frameworks. Julia,
the rules first show a GDPR screen stating
a language developed by MIT, is an open-
privacy and cookie policies. While a single
source language that focuses on numerical
algorithm might be easily described and de-
computing. And of course there’s Lisp,
ployed as expected, systems of algorithms
created by modern A.I. 's foreparent John
all working together can sometimes pose
McCarthy in 1958. Companies are starting

problems. Developers don’t always know in have a significant impact on what internet Bots to widespread deception, led to a new law
advance how one algorithm will function users see, whether that is news, products in California that requires bots to disclose
The term “bot” has become part of our
alongside other algorithms. Sometimes, for sale or advertising. The U.S. and E.U. are that they are not humans in their interac-
mainstream vocabulary, and you can expect
several teams of developers are all working currently investigating Amazon’s simultane- tions with people. The law went into effect
to hear more about them as America com-
independently on different algorithms and ous roles as a search engine, marketplace on July 1, 2019 and requires the disclosure
pletes its 2020 election cycle. Bots, at the
data sets and only see their work once it is operator and seller of its own products. to be “clear, conspicuous, and reasonably
most basic level, are software applications
deployed. This has been the cause of recent Lawmakers are not yet aligned on whether designed to inform persons with whom the
designed to automate a specified task. They
stock market glitches and e-commerce manipulating algorithms for competitive bot communicates or interacts that it is a
can be text or audio-based and can be de-
website wonkiness. Indeed, it is a challenge advantage meets the criteria for antitrust bot.” The success of this new regulation
ployed across various platforms. News bots
for big companies like Facebook, which activity. could become the basis for other state and
can help aggregate and automatically alert
have billions of algorithms working together national laws, especially if conversational
a user about a specified event, whereas
at any given time. Corporate Biometric Spoofing productivity bots are tools companies use
bots like Google’s Duplex reach critical mass
within the marketplace.
Companies might want to think twice before to automate and streamline their day-to-day
Companies Manipulating A.I. implementing A.I. systems to monitor and operations. Chatbots are now fully main-
Systems for Competitive authenticate staff. New techniques in ma- stream, and they’re deployed by all kinds
Advantage chine learning have led to synthetic finger- of organizations, especially in customer
Amazon, Google and Facebook have all prints and other automatically-generating service functions. In fact, research from
come under fire in the past few years for bioidentifiers capable of fooling monitoring Survey Monkey and live chat provider
manipulating their search systems to systems. Researchers at Michigan State Drift revealed that only 38% of consumers
prioritize results that are more profitable University and New York University built an actually want to talk with a human when
for their companies. For example, Google algorithm that can generate fake biometric engaging with a brand.
has been accused of de-ranking websites credentials, signaling the potential for inno-
The next big advancement in bots won’t be
and promoting news stories from preferred vation-related vulnerabilities on our horizon.
technical in nature—it will be regulatory.
partners. Late in 2019 researchers found One such instance might be a malicious
During 2018’s campaign cycles, we saw
that Amazon had optimized its search system generating millions of fingerprints in
a resurgence of botnets, which are net-
algorithm to boost the visibility of Amazon’s a brute force attack to remotely open a door
works of computers designed to send out
own brands. Tweaks to search algorithms or unlock a laptop.
misleading content. That, coupled with
concerns that bots are increasingly leading
35
Business Ecosystem
Global Rush to Fund A.I. Algorithm Marketplaces

There is a well-reported shortage of A.I. In the 2010s, big tech companies, startups
talent, and every sector is hoping to inte- and communities of developers used algo-
grate A.I. into their core business functions. rithm marketplaces to share and sell their
As a result, there is a global race to fund work. In 2018, Microsoft paid $7.5 billion to
A.I. research and to acquire startups. In buy GitHub, a popular development platform
2019, investors put $136.5 billion into 10,777 allowing anyone to host and review code,
deals worldwide. Seed or pre-seed rounds to collaborate with other developers and to
made up half of those deals, while 21% were build all kinds of projects. Amazon’s AWS
Series A and 12% were Series B. U.S. tech hosts its own marketplace, offering models
giants like Apple, Google and Microsoft are and algorithms for computer vision, speech
acquiring A.I. companies at a rapid clip, recognition, and text—and its base of sellers
and non-tech companies are gobbling A.I. includes Intel, CloudSight and many others.
startups too: McDonald’s acquired person- (Think of AWS Marketplace as an Amazon
alization platform Dynamic Yield, while Nike for algorithms and models.) There are
acquired inventory management company marketplaces for generalists, like Gene-
Celect and guided shopping experience sisAI and Algorithmia, where developers
platform Invertex. The U.S. Department can upload their work and receive payment
Github is a popular platform allowing anyone to host and review code.
of Energy is reportedly planning to ask when others pay to access it. Now there
Congress for $3 - $4 billion over the next are specialized marketplaces for specific
10 years to build next-generation exascale use cases: Nuance AI Marketplace offers
computers that use A.I. to speed scientific A.I. developers a single API to connect their
discoveries. In July of 2019, Japanese con- algorithms to radiologists at 6,500 health-
glomerate Softbank launched Vision Fund care facilities. Quantiacs allows developers
2, a $108 billion fund designated specifically to build algorithmic trading systems, and
for A.I. startups. it matches their algorithms up with capital
from institutional investors. Bonseyes is a
European-specific marketplace to buy and
sell A.I. tools.

Marketplace Consolidation Fragmentation Liability Insurance for A.I. Ambient Surveillance
As much as the A.I. ecosystem is booming, The A.I. ecosystem spans hundreds of Who’s to blame when machines behave bad- What happens behind closed doors may
a rush of acquisitions means consolidation, companies. They are building the network ly? Our current legal systems were built to not be secret for long, and executives
too. Big companies now pick up startups infrastructure, the custom chipsets, the regulate human behavior, not the actions of should beware of new ambient surveillance
long before they have time to mature—the consumer applications, the backend com- unsupervised machines. As businesses rush methods. MIT computer vision scientists
average age at acquisition is three years munications systems, the low-power radios to build and implement A.I. products and discovered how to use computer vision to
old. Just nine big companies dominate the in our smart home gadgets…we could go on. processes, they must plan ahead for emerg- track data from what they call “acciden-
A.I. landscape: Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meanwhile, a large number of policy groups, ing risks. For example, what happens if ma- tal cameras.” Windows, mirrors, corners,
IBM, Facebook and Apple in the U.S. and advocacy organizations and governments chine learning makes a company vulnerable houseplants and other common objects
Chinese behemoths Baidu, Alibaba and are all developing guidelines, norms and to attackers injecting fake training data into can be used, along with A.I., to track subtle
Tencent—with significant fortification and standards and policy frameworks hoping a system? What if a healthcare company’s changes in light, shadow and vibrations.
support from the Chinese government. On to guide the future development of A.I. As A.I. misinterprets data and neglects to iden- The result? We all may soon have x-ray
the investment side, Qualcomm, Tencent, a result, the ecosystem is fragmented in tify cancer among certain patients? These vision capabilities—which may not be great
Intel Capital, Google Ventures, Nvidia, two ways: infrastructure standards and are the kinds of problems that could open a news for companies working on sensitive
Salesforce, Samsung Ventures, Alibaba, governance. company up to lawsuits. LaPlaya Insurance projects. Those working in information
Apple, Baidu, Citi and In-Q-Tel fund much and Allianz are now studying new liability security and risk management should pay
of the growth. When it comes to the future insurance models that may help to address especially close attention to advancements
of A.I., we should ask whether consolida- these issues. in computer vision.
tion makes sense for the greater good,
and whether competition—and therefore
access—will eventually be hindered as we’ve
seen in other fields such as telecommunica-
tions and cable.
37
Processes, Systems and

Computational Neuroscience
Creating 3D Models from Flat the original intent was to teach machines
2D Images to think like us. Researchers are working
on new ways to combine both learning and
Last year, Nvidia trained a neural network
logic using neural networks, which would
to autonomously generate fully-textured 3D
understand data through symbols rather
models based on a single photo. Research-
than always relying on human programmers
ers trained a neural network using a large
to sort, tag and catalogue data for them.
corpus of 3D models, images that had been
Symbolic algorithms will aid the process,
transformed into 3D models, and 2D images
which should eventually lead to robust
showing an object from various angles.
systems that don’t always require a human
The result: a new system that can render
for training.
3D models without any need for human
intervention. Practical applications include
Real-Time Machine Learning
robots that can autonomously generate
realistic models of their environments using One big challenge in A.I. is building ma-
only 2D images. chines that can proactively collect and
Amazon’s Rekognition identifies well-known people to help you “catalogue footage interpret data, spot patterns and incorpo-
and photos for marketing, advertising and media industry use cases.” Neuro-Symbolic A.I. Algorithms rate context, and ultimately learn in real
and Systems time. New research into real-time machine
learning (RTML) shows that it’s possible to
The development of A.I. has been on two use a continual flow of transactional data
conceptual tracks since the 1950s: sym- and adjust models in real-time. This signals
bolic (machines use a base of knowledge a big change in how data moves, and in
and rules that represent concepts) and how we retrieve information. The National
non-symbolic (machines use raw data to Science Foundation launched a $10 million
create their own patterns and represen- grant program to catalyze research in this
tations of concepts). Classic A.I. is the area, though all of the big tech companies
former, because it more closely represents are working closely to advance RTML too.
how we understand human thought—and

Natural Language Understanding actual words. We tend to speak in unstruc- Machine Reading Comprehension be easier if you had a computer read all of
(NLU) tured text. One of the things that makes (MRC) the technical documentation for you and
reference resolution especially complicated suggest likely fixes. Or, better yet, let the
Last year, Amazon released updates to For A.I. researchers, machine reading com-
for a large A.I. system like Alexa is that dif- machines figure out what’s wrong on their
its Transcribe Medical system, a natural prehension (MRC) has been a challenging
ferent Alexa services use different names— own, by making all technical manuals and
language understanding (NLU) system goal, but an important one. MRC makes it
or slots—for the same data. A movie-finding documentation available to them for read-
that recognizes speech used by doctors possible for systems to read, infer meaning
service, for instance, might tag location ing and analysis. That’s the promise of MRC,
and medical professionals in real time—no and immediately deliver answers while sift-
data with the slot name Theater_Location, which represents a necessary step in realiz-
small achievement. Getting machines to ing through enormous data sets. Last year,
while a restaurant-finding service might ing artificial general intelligence, and in the
understand exactly what or who someone China’s Alibaba outperformed humans when
use the slot name Landmark_Address. Over near-term could potentially turn everything
is referring to has been a challenge for tested by the Microsoft Machine Reading
the course of a conversation, Alexa has to from technical manuals to historical maps
conversational A.I. systems like Siri and Comprehension dataset (or MS MARCO for
determine which slots used by one service to our medical records into easily search-
Alexa. At best, the systems are trained to short), which assessed its ability to use
should inherit data from which slots used by able repositories of information.
reference the last pronoun spoken. If a natural language to answer real questions
another.
consumer asks “What time is The Lion King posed by humans. Alibaba’s system deliv-
NLU allows researchers to quantify and Natural Language Generation
playing at Cinemark Theater?” and follows ered answers to search queries posted by
with “parking near there,” the system infers learn from all of that text by extracting people to Microsoft’s Bing, like “how many
(NLG)
that “there” means “Cinemark Theater.” In concepts, mapping relationships and carbs are in an English muffin?” and “how do With the growing popularity of digital assis-
technical terms, this process is called “slot analyzing emotion, and they made some you grow hops?” tants, consumers want the ability to have
carryover,” and it uses syntactic context to impressive advancements in the past year. natural conversations with machines. But
One practical application of MRC on the
understand what our pronouns mean. The The General Language Understanding training A.I. systems require a tremendous
consumer side: When you perform a search
process works, unless we speak in complex Evaluation competition (or GLUE) is seen as amount of data. Natural language gener-
query, wouldn’t you rather have a system
sentences with many different pronouns. a high-water mark in how well an A.I. system ation (NLG) systems automatically detect,
offer you a precise answer than just a list of
The fact is that in real conversation, most understands human language. China’s Baidu parse, visualize and then narrate key data.
URLs where you can go to hunt down more
of us are messy talkers. We start and stop unseated Google and Microsoft in the most Google’s Cloud Natural Language API, the
specifics—even showing you where, on the
sentences without warning, we misuse recent competition and became the first to Azure Text-to-Speech API, IBM Watson
page, that information comes from? If you
words, and sometimes we rely on our tone develop techniques for understanding not Text-to-Speech, Amazon Polly and Baidu’s
are an airline mechanic and you’re trying
to convey something we don’t want to say in only English, but Chinese as well. Text-to-Speech system are all advancing
to troubleshoot a tricky engine problem
the field of NLG. Companies like Arria NLG,
without further delaying a flight, it would
Narrative Science and Automated Insights
39
Processes, Systems and Computational Neuroscience cont.
have products that help non-data science learned how to play Go with the skill level learning, and this subfield of A.I. is finally popular machine learning frameworks used
people make better sense of what’s happen- of a human grandmaster, has developed an taking off in earnest. Programmers use in the world. In 2018, Google open-sourced
ing within their organizations. One possi- innovative new algorithm: AlphaZero. It is special deep learning algorithms alongside its technique for training general purpose
bility for NLG: developing a system that can capable of achieving superhuman perfor- a corpus of data—typically many terabytes language representation models using the
use plain language to explain itself, and the mance not only in Go, but in other games as of text, images, videos, speech and the enormous amount of unannotated text on
decisions it makes, to others. well, including chess and shogi (Japanese like—and the system is trained to learn on the web (known as pre-training). Named Bi-
chess). This one algorithm starts with no its own. Though conceptually deep learning directional Encoder Representations from
Real-Time Context in Machine knowledge except for the rules of the game isn’t new, what’s changed recently is the Transformers (or BERT), it is a question
Learning and eventually develops its own strategies amount of compute and the volume of data answering system that can be trained in
to beat other players. In January of 2020, that’s become available. In practical terms, about 30 minutes. Hardware upgrades and
The world is awash with information, mis-
DeepMind published new research showing this means that more and more human faster chips should help make open source
information and superficial thinking. Last
how reinforcement learning techniques processes will be automated, including the frameworks even faster—and popular—in
year, IBM unveiled Project Debater, an A.I.
could be used to improve our understanding writing of software, which computers will the years to come.
system capable of incorporating context in
of mental health and motivation. soon start to do themselves. Deep learning
real-time learning systems and debating hu-
mans on complex topics. Designed to help
(DL) has been limited by the processing Reinforcement Learning and
people practice their reasoning, develop
Deep Learning Scales power of computer networks, however new Hierarchical RL
chipsets and faster processors will help
well-informed arguments and reach reliable In the 1980s, Geoffrey Hinton and a team of Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful
DNNs perform at superhuman speeds. (See
conclusions, Project Debater shows how researchers at Carnegie Mellon University tool for sorting out decision-making prob-
trend #7: Advanced AI chipsets.)
machine learning systems can use an array hypothesized a back propagation-based lems, and it’s being used to train A.I. sys-
of source material alongside real-time data training method that could someday lead to tems to achieve superhuman capabilities.
to form arguments. an unsupervised A.I. network. It took a few Faster and More Powerful Open Inside of a computer simulation, a system
decades to build and train the massive data Source Frameworks tries, fails, learns, experiments and then
General Reinforcement Learning sets, recognition algorithms and powerful Research lab OpenAI develops and de- tries again, in rapid succession, altering its
Algorithms computer systems that could make good ploys open source A.I. language systems, future attempts each time. It’s because of
on that idea. Last year, Facebook’s Yann while Google and Facebook’s open source RL that AlphaGo, a computer developed by
Researchers are developing single al-
LeCun, the University of Montreal’s Yoshua frameworks are used widely. The open DeepMind (part of Alphabet), learned how
gorithms that can learn multiple tasks.
Bengio and Hinton (now at Google) won source PyTorch, created by Soumith to beat the greatest Go players in the world.
DeepMind, the team behind AlphaGo, which
the Turing Award for their research in deep Chintala at Facebook, is among the most One problem with RL: agents have difficulty

when they don’t have enough supervision, (CL) is more about autonomous and incre- decade—and in the past few years, there New Generative Modeling
or when their objective is to run scenarios mental skill building and development, and have been tremendous advancements in Techniques
for a very long time horizon. In 2020 and researchers will continue to push the limits GANs. Think of a GAN as the Turing test but
Autoregressive Implicit Quantile Networks
beyond, researchers will try to solve those of what’s possible in this field. without any humans involved. GANs are
(or AIQN for short) sound complicated,
problems using hierarchical reinforcement unsupervised deep learning systems com-
but it’s an innovative idea to help improve
learning, which discovers high-level actions Multitask Learning prised of two competing neural networks
algorithms and make them more stable. The
and methodically works through learning trained on the same data—such as images
In the past year, researchers at Carnegie implication: This could quicken the pace of
challenges to master new tasks at speeds of people. For example, the first A.I. creates
Mellon University and Facebook’s AI lab advancements in A.I.—and that could mean
we humans can’t imagine. This is important photos of a woman that seem realistic,
released a superhuman A.I. for multiplayer faster opportunities and innovations within
for non-techies, too: RL will improve the while the second A.I. compares the gen-
poker called Pluribus, and by the end of the whole ecosystem.
“intelligence” in our A.I. systems, helping erated photos with photos of real women.
10,000 hands against 12 professional play-
cars learn to drive in unusual conditions and Based on the judgment of the second A.I.,
ers, it got very good at bluffing. It marked Probabilistic Programming
helping military drones perform compli- the first one goes back and makes tweaks to
a significant milestone in A.I. research. Languages
cated maneuvers that have never been its process. This happens again and again,
Winning at games like checkers and chess
attempted before in the physical world. until the first A.I. is automatically gener- Probabilistic programming languages
entails computational challenges. In poker,
ating all kinds of images of a woman that alleviate some of the strain and tedium of
there is an information challenge, since
Continuous Learning what’s needed to win is hidden from other
look entirely realistic. Last year alone saw a developing probability models. These newer
number of interesting experiments involving languages allow developers to build, reuse
At the moment, deep learning techniques players. Poker also pits multiple players
GANs. Researchers from Nvidia, the MGH and share their model libraries, while still
have helped systems learn to solve complex against each other and achieving victory is
and BWH Center for Clinical Data Science accommodating incomplete information.
tasks in a way that more closely matches more complex than capturing game pieces.
and the Mayo Clinic collaborated on a GAN
what humans can do—but those tasks are Pluribus learned to do several things at once
that generates synthetic MRIs showing can- Machine Image Completion
still specific, such as beating a human at a and built its own strategy to win.
cerous tumors. Researchers at the Skolkovo
game. And they require a rigid sequence: If a computer system has access to enough
Institute of Science and Technology and the
gather data, determine the goal, deploy an Generative Adversarial Samsung AI Center made living deepfakes—
images—millions and millions, say—it can
algorithm. This process requires humans Networks (GANs) patch and fill in holes in pictures. This
the Mona Lisa moved her head and Rasputin
and can be time-consuming, especial- capability has practical applications for
Facebook AI research director Yann LeCun sang “Halo” by Beyonce. (Naturally, it’s this
ly during early phases when supervised professional photographers as well as
has called generative adversarial networks same GAN technology that’s behind deep-
training is required. Continuous learning everyone who wants to take a better selfie.
(GANs) the most interesting idea of the fakes in general.)
41
Processes, Systems and Computational Neuroscience cont.
Soon, if the foreground of a mountain is

out of focus, or if your skin has an unsightly
blemish, another version can be swapped in
to generate the perfect picture. But what are
the next-order scenarios and implications?
How will we draw the line between reality
and enhancement? How much image com-
pletion should be allowed without tacking on
a warning label or disclosure? Online daters,
journalists and marketers should be asking
these questions. But so should policymak-
ers. Image completion is also a useful tool
for law enforcement and military intelligence
officers—computers can now assist them
in identifying who or what is in the frame.
Given the bias we’ve already seen across
machine learning algorithms and data sets,
image completion could become part of a
Researcher Victor Dibia trained a DCGAN model (deep convolutional generative adversarial network) to generate African Masks.
future debate about privacy and our devices.
Hybrid Human-Computer Vision

Analysis
A.I. isn’t yet capable of fully functioning
without human assistance. Hybrid intelli-
gence systems combine humans and A.I.
systems to achieve greater accuracy. New
research from the U.S. Army Research
Laboratory shows a system that uses a
brain-computer interface armed with

computer vision technology that allows a hug, kiss, shake hands or slap a high five. organizations to train custom machine one company. Researchers are training A.I.
person to rapidly see and sort images within This research will someday enable robots to learning models without highly-trained staff. systems to recognize patterns, even if they
their line of sight. CloudSight, a Los Ange- more easily navigate human environments— show up in unusual places. For example,
les-based technology company specializing and to interact with us humans by taking Graph Neural Networks AWS’s Textract system now recognizes both
in image captioning, is working on a hybrid cues from our own body language. It could text and context.
Predicting the way something will smell
crowdsourced computer vision system. also be used in retail environments, while
is incredibly complex. That’s because
Microsoft researchers have proposed hybrid we’re operating machinery, or while we’re in
we perceive scents using the millions of
human-in-the-loop and machine learning classrooms learning.
sensory neurons in our brains—and because
methods (codenamed Pandora) that facili-
scents are multi-faceted. For example, how
tate the process of describing and explain- Automated Machine Learning would you describe the smell of an orange?
ing failures in machine learning systems. (AutoML) Sweet? Bright? Grassy? Each descriptor is
Some organizations want to move away unique. Classifying smell is tricky because
Predictive Machine Vision from traditional machine learning methods, it requires a multi-label system. Research-
In 2019, the DeepMind team developed which are time-consuming and difficult and ers at Google are building graph neural
a generative adversarial network that require data scientists, specialists in A.I. networks—a particular type of deep neural
generates videos from images. For exam- fields and engineers. Automated machine network that operates on graphs as inputs—
ple: Imagine a photo of a person holding learning, or AutoML, is a new approach: A to predict odors at a molecular level.
a basketball. Based on their posture, face process in which raw data and models are
and other data within the picture, the GAN matched together to reveal the most rel- Intelligent Optical Character
figures out what likely happened next and evant information. Google, Amazon and Mic- Recognition
generates a video clip of the action. Earlier, rosoft now offer a host of AutoML products
An ongoing challenge is getting machines
researchers at MIT's Computer Science and and services.
to recognize the various ways we express
Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL)
ourselves in writing. Optical character rec-
trained computers to not only recognize Customized Machine Learning ognition (OCR) works in fixed, recognizable
what’s in a video, but to predict what
Soon, individual users will upload their own formats like highway signs and the text from
humans will do next using YouTube videos
data to customize existing A.I. models. For a book. But often, OCR isn’t smart enough to
and TV shows such as “The Office” and
example, tools like Google’s Cloud AutoML recognize different fonts, unique notations
“Desperate Housewives.” CSAIL’s system
and Amazon SageMaker Autopilot allow or spreadsheets with fields specific only to
predicts whether two people are likely to
43
Content and Creativity
A.I. for the Creative Process leaves? A glass windowpane? The focus of Automated Versioning
this research, underway at MIT's Computer
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) Journalists at Switzerland-based Tamedia
Science and Artificial Intelligence Labora-
are capable of far more than generating experimented with generative techniques
tory (CSAIL), is to help systems understand
deepfake videos. Researchers are partner- during their country’s 2018 election. A deci-
how objects interact with each other in the
ing with artists and musicians to generate sion-tree algorithm Tamedia named “Tobi”
physical realm. Numerous projects are now
entirely new forms of creative expression. generated automated articles detailing
underway to make it easier to automatically
From synthesizing African tribal masks to vote results for each of the municipalities
generate voices, videos and even storylines.
building fantastical, fictional galaxies, A.I. covered by the private media group’s 30
Amazon’s DeepComposer system is being used to explore new ideas. Last newspapers, and it produced content si-
year, Nvidia launched GauGAN (named after
Generating Virtual Environments multaneously in multiple languages. In total,
composes music “automagically.”
post-Impressionist painter Paul Gauguin), from Short Videos Tobi generated 39,996 different versions
a generative adversarial A.I. system that Chip designer Nvidia is teaching A.I. to build of election stories averaging 250 words in
lets users create lifelike landscape images realistic 3D environments from short video length and published to Tamedia’s online
that never existed. The National Institute clips. The method builds on previous re- platforms. Each story carried a special
of Informatics in Tokyo built an A.I. lyricist, search on generative adversarial networks byline alerting readers that the story had
while Amazon released its DeepComposer (GANs). Nvidia’s system generated graphics been written by an algorithm. With more
system, which composes music “automagi- taken from open-source data sets used by experiments underway, we expect to see
cally.” These A.I.s aren’t intended to replace the autonomous driving field. Using short news and entertainment media companies
artists, but rather to enhance their creative clips segmented into various categories developing multiple versions of the same
process. (buildings, sky, vehicles, signs, trees, peo- content to reach wider audiences or to pro-
ple) the GAN was trained to generate new, duce massive amounts of content at scale.
Generative Algorithms for different versions of these objects. Future
Content Production applications of automatically-generated Automatic Voice Cloning
For some time, we’ve been training com-
virtual environments are vast: think training and Dubbing
environments for logistics (warehouses,
puters to watch videos and predict corre- Anyone who’s ever recorded a podcast is
factories, shipping centers), urban planning
sponding sounds in our physical world. For familiar with editing challenges, such as
simulations, even testing customer flow
example, what sound is generated when a guests talking over each other, random
scenarios within amusement parks and
wooden drumstick taps a couch? A pile of sirens or outdoor noise suddenly blaring
shopping centers.

in the background, or moments when a an essay written by A.I. tends to rely on Datamining Crowds listings showed accurate direct contact
speaker sneezes or coughs. It can interrupt statistical patterns in text and doesn’t have information within its mobile app, but when
Well after citizens in the U.K. voted for Brex-
momentum or stop a conversation cold. much linguistic variation. Researchers at a customer clicked through they were deep-
it, they continued to Google “What is the EU”
But what if you could edit a spoken conver- the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab and at Harvard linked through to order on the Grubhub app.
and “What is Brexit.” In the nearly four years
sation the way you edit a word document? University developed the Giant Language Even if customers bypassed the app and
after the initial vote, this passive data has
That’s the promise of A.I. Companies like Model Test Room (GLTR), which looks for wanted to dial the number, the app instead
continued to tell an interesting story. This is
Lyrebird, Resemble AI and Descript, which words that are likely to appear in a par- routed them through a Grubhub-owned
just one example of what we’re now able to
make it possible to clone voices—which ticular order. This is good news for those number, which allowed Grubhub to catego-
learn from the crowd by monitoring various
means that soon you might see Keanu concerned about the spread of automated rize the interaction as a “marketing call” and
networks. Our smartphone ownership has
Reeves in a movie and also hear him, in his misinformation campaigns. to charge restaurants a hefty commission
reached critical mass, and so has our use of
own voice, speaking in Italian. There’s a dark fee. There are three kinds of deep links: tra-
various networks. Our data not only follows
side to this technology, however. Last year, Algorithmic Fact Checking us around, it’s often available for anyone to
ditional, deferred and contextual. Traditional
hackers used voice cloning tools to trick an deep links reroute you from one app or site
Misleading and outright false information search, collect and analyze. We anticipate
employee into thinking he was speaking on to another: If you click on a Baltimore Sun
has polluted the internet and our social that more news organizations—as well as
the phone to his CEO—he then transferred link someone posts on Twitter, theoretically
media channels, and everyday consumers marketers, activists and other groups—will
$243,000 to a scammer’s bank account. it should automatically open in the Baltimore
struggle to cope. While we’ve seen tremen- start harnessing this data in creative ways.
Sun app, as long as you have it installed. De-
dous global efforts to fact-check various That’s because our thinking results in behav-
Spotting Machine-Written Text governmental officials, algorithms designed ior (like searching for “what is the EU?”), and
ferred deep links either link straight to con-
tent if the app is installed, or to an app store
In the past year, researchers showed how to propagate lies can work faster than our behavior results in data—and that data
for you to download the app first. Contextual
A.I. could be used to compose text so good human fact-checkers. Researchers at the can be used to learn something about us.
deep links offer much more robust informa-
that humans couldn’t tell it was machine University of Texas at Arlington and Google
tion—they take you from site to app, app to
written. The team at OpenAI demonstrated have been working on automated tech- Deep Linking site, site to site or app to app, and they can
the many reasons why this was problemat- niques using frame semantics. A frame is a
Deep mobile linking has been around since also include personalized information. This
ic, from mass-generating salacious social schematic that describes a particular kind
the beginning of smartphones, and it makes is what happened with the Yelp and Grubhub
media posts and fake reviews to forging of event, situation, object or relation along
it easier to find and share data across all of example, though the process was purposely
documents by world leaders. It turns out with its participants. Researchers extended
the apps in your phone. Deep links are now hidden from consumers.
that A.I. can also be used to detect when a system called FrameNet to include new
being used in ways that obscure information
text was machine generated, even if we frames built specifically for automated fact
from consumers. In 2019, Yelp restaurant
humans can’t spot the fake. That’s because checking.
45
Consumer Products and Services
Ambient Computing Expands Ubiquitous Digital Assistants credit card companies, banks, local govern-
ment agencies (police, highway administra-
Also known as “zero-UIs,” our modern Digital assistants (DAs)—like Siri, Alexa, and
tion), political campaigns and many others
interfaces are becoming more and more their Chinese counterpart Tiān Māo from
can harness DAs to both surface and deliver
like ambient music—able to do more for us Alibaba—use semantic and natural language
critical information.
with fewer direct actions, yet still able to processing, along with our data, in order to
captivate our attention. Rather than relying anticipate what we want or need to do next,
on a single input screen, or even a series of sometimes before we even know to ask.
A.I. for Drug Development
screens, we’ll instead interact with comput- Alibaba’s highly advanced DA can not only In 2018 and 2019, drug companies ramped
ers with less friction. In our modern age of interact with real humans, but also deftly up research to determine if A.I. could be
information, the average adult now makes handle interruptions and open-ended an- used at every phase of drug development,
more than 20,000 decisions a day—some swers. Similar to Google’s Duplex, Alibaba’s from hypotheses, picking better compounds
Drug companies ramped up research to and identifying better drug targets to
big, such as whether or not to invest in DA can make calls on your behalf, but it also
determine if A.I. could be used at every
the stock market, and some small, such understands intent. So if you’re trying to designing more successful clinical trials and
phase of drug development.
as whether to glance at your mobile phone schedule an appointment and you mention tracking real-world outcomes. Microsoft
when you see the screen light up. Ambient you’re usually commuting in the morning, and Novartis announced a collaboration for
computing systems promise to prioritize the system understands that you aren’t A.I.-driven drug discovery, Pfizer intends to
those decisions, delegate them on our be- available even though you never explicitly use IBM’s Watson, and Alphabet’s DeepMind
half, and even to autonomously answer for said that. In 2017, FTI’s model projected that proved last year how a tech company could
us, depending on the circumstance. Much of nearly half of Americans would own and use beat a roomful of biologists in predicting
this invisible decision-making will happen a digital assistant by the year 2020, and our the shape of a protein based on its genetic
without your direct supervision or input. model continues to track in that direction. code. Nearly every major pharmaceutical
What makes ambient design so tantalizing Amazon and Google dominate the smart company inked deals with A.I. drug dis-
is that it should require us to make fewer speaker market, but digital assistants can covery startups, too, including Johnson &
and fewer decisions in the near-future. be found in many places. There are now Johnson, Novartis, Merck, AstraZeneca
Think of it as a sort of autocomplete for thousands of applications and gadgets that and GlaxoSmithKline. And investors poured
intention. track and respond to DAs. News organiza- $2.4 billion into hundreds of such startups
tions, entertainment companies, marketers, between 2013 and 2019, according to data

by PitchBook. Much of the potential in A.I. in which the body’s ability to properly dis- A.I. for Interviews Consumer-Grade A.I.
stems from deep learning’s ability to sort tribute copper is impaired. Deep Genomics Applications
Recognition systems can now be deployed
through huge volumes of information and used another set of algorithms to analyze
to watch you being interviewed, to gauge We’re now seeing a shift from highly tech-
to learn and extrapolate from that informa- billions of molecules and ultimately identify
your enthusiasm, tenacity and poise. nical A.I. applications that are used by pro-
tion. The upshot: A.I. can think faster than 12 drug candidates, which appeared to
Algorithms analyze hundreds of details, fessional researchers to more lightweight,
humans—sorting data in months versus work in both cell models and mice. The
such as the tone of your voice, your facial user-friendly apps intended for tech-savvy
years—and see patterns that we may not. company will take one of them, known as
expressions and your mannerisms to try consumers. New automated machine
Still, drug discovery is tricky, because the DG12P1, to human clinical trials in 2021.
and predict how you’ll fit in to the culture learning platforms make it possible for
algorithms rely on drug targets that must The process took 18 months, instead of
of a community. Startups such as HireVue non-experts to build and deploy predictive
be published in research journals and have the traditional 3 to 6 years. If A.I. works for
use A.I. systems to help companies decide models. Many hope that in the near future,
well-characterized metabolic mechanisms. drug development, it will dramatically alter
which candidates to hire. But this kind of we’ll use various A.I. applications as part of
Most data about potential compounds, too, the field’s needed skills in the future: drug
recognition technology has practical appli- our everyday work, just as we do Microsoft
isn’t always readily available, and when it is, developers must not only know biology but
cations well beyond job interviews: It can Office or Google Docs today.
it isn't always complete or reliable. Filling computer science and statistics, too. Then
detect when someone is likely to make a
in the gaps and cleaning up that data takes there’s the Food and Drug Administration
purchase—or attempt to shoplift—in a store,
time and money. It also requires data shar- approval process. Using algorithms for drug
whether someone is lying, and whether
ing—and most drug data is proprietary and development brings up a host of ethical
someone is receptive to new suggestions
locked up by big drug makers. Despite the questions. Will bias invade drug discovery
and ideas. Unlike security cameras, which
frenzy in the industry about the technol- much like it has other arenas of A.I., thereby
tend to have a light indicating they’re
ogy’s potential, no A.I.-driven drugs have marginalizing certain patients or diseases?
recording, algorithms work invisibly, which
been created yet. But the industry may be Do algorithms need their own clinical trials?
means that this is an area that could face
inching closer: In September of 2019, Deep Could A.I. be used to take shortcuts and
regulatory scrutiny. Consumer advocacy
Genomics in Canada successfully used A.I. undermine the value of the science being
organization EPIC filed a complaint with the
to decipher more precisely how one gene done inside the laboratory? Advocates say
Federal Trade Commission asking the FTC
mutation fails to create a protein, one of A.I. will make drug development and clinical
to investigate HireVue, alleging its tools
hundreds of genes that leads to Wilson’s trials more efficient, thereby cutting drug
produce results that are “biased, unprov-
disease, a life-threatening genetic disorder prices and paving the way for more person-
able, and not replicable” through algorithmic
alized medicine.
models.
47
SCENARIO • ELENA GIRALT SCENARIO • ELENA GIRALT
Digital Twins Mean Never Having Humans Failing the Human Test
to Call Customer Service Again
NEAR-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO NEAR-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
Imagine the last time you were on the phone with your health Have you noticed that CAPTCHA tests have become increasingly
insurance trying to settle a claim. What about the last time you hard to solve? That’s because bots are getting better at cracking
tried to dispute a charge with your credit card company? Chances those frustratingly difficult, warped word puzzles. According to
are at least part of your interaction involved a bot. What if you had research from Google, computers could solve the hardest distort-
your own bot to negotiate on your behalf for lower premiums and ed text CAPTCHAs with 99% accuracy, while humans could only
better rates? This scenario may arrive sooner than you think. Mul- solve with a 33% accuracy. This has led to increasingly difficult
tiple startups are developing customer-advocacy bots to interact CAPTCHA tests that have significant accessibility issues for indi-
with corporate bots in a number of industries. viduals who are blind, deaf or have cognitive impairments. In the
future, CAPTCHAs will evolve into more sophisticated tests that
only humans can pass. These tests need to be easy enough for any
human to complete without compromising privacy or personally
identifiable information such as a DNA sample or a fingerprint.
With more and more sophisticated sensors being incorporated
into our digital devices, what if CAPTCHAs evolve to be breatha-
lyzers, body heat sensors or heartbeat monitors on your computer
screen?
THIRTEENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Warfare
The New Mil-Tech Industrial objects from still images and videos. The
Complex team didn’t have the necessary A.I. capa-
bilities, so the DOD contracted with Google
In the past few years, some of the biggest
for help training A.I. systems to analyze
A.I. companies in the U.S. started partner-
drone footage. But the Google employees
ing with the military to advance research,
assigned to the project didn’t know they’d
find efficiencies and develop new techno-
actually been working on a military project,
logical systems that can be deployed under
and that resulted in high-profile backlash.
a variety of circumstances. The reason: The
As many as 4,000 Google employees signed
public sector cannot advance its technol-
a petition objecting to Project Maven. They
ogy without help from outside companies.
took out a full-page ad in The New York
Plus, there is a lot of money to be made.
Times, and ultimately dozens of employees
Both Amazon and Microsoft made head-
resigned. Eventually, Google said it wouldn’t
lines over a $10 billion, 10-year government
renew its contract with the DOD. Google
tech contract called the Joint Enterprise
eventually launched a set of ethical princi-
Defense Infrastructure, or JEDI. In addition
ples governing its development and use of
to Amazon and Microsoft, several others,
A.I., including a provision that prohibits any
including IBM, Oracle and Google, competed
systems from being used for “weapons or
to transform the military’s cloud computing
other technologies whose principal purpose
systems. Meanwhile, the Central Intelli-
or implementation is to cause or directly
gence Agency awarded Amazon a $600
facilitate injury to people.”
million cloud services contract, while Mic-
Google employees protested the company’s A.I. work on a U.S. military project.
rosoft won a $480 million contract to build
National A.I. Strategies
HoloLens headsets for the Army. The con-
tracts prompted employee protests. In 2017, Over the past few years, the danger of
the Department of Defense established artificial intelligence has been thrown into
an Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional sharp relief. From self-driving car accidents
Team to work on something called Project to electioneering through disinformation
Maven—a computer vision and deep-learn- campaigns to political repression enhanced
ing system that autonomously recognizes by facial recognition and automated sur-
49
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Warfare cont.
veillance, it is clear that A.I. is transforming ahead, the United Arab Emirates has a
the security environment for nation-states, sweeping set of policy initiatives on A.I. and
firms and citizens alike. Few guardrails now appointed Omar Sultan Al Olama as its min-
exist for a technology that will touch every ister of state for artificial intelligence.
facet of humanity, and countries around the In the U.S., numerous initiatives, cells and
world are racing to develop and publish their centers work independently on the future of
own strategies and guidelines for A.I. The A.I. on behalf of the nation. Those efforts,
European Union developed an AI Alliance however, lack interagency collaboration
and plan of cooperation between member and coordinated efforts to streamline
countries; the United Nations has a number goals, outcomes, R&D efforts and funding.
of ongoing initiatives on A.I.; Brazil is cre- The National Institute of Standards and
ating a national strategy and establishing Technology (NIST) and various congres-
eight A.I. laboratories; Canada already has a sional offices attempt to define technical
national A.I. strategy called the Pan-Cana- specifications for A.I., while the Joint AI
dian Artificial Intelligence Strategy; China Center and the National Security Commis-
passed its “New Generation Artificial Intel- sion on AI each focus on national security
ligence Development Plan” with aggressive and defense. When it comes to A.I. planning,
benchmarks to become the world’s domi- the National Artificial Intelligence Research
nant A.I. player within 10 years; Estonia is and Development Strategic Plan duplicates
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (left) shakes hands with former Secretary of Defense Ash developing a legal framework governing the the National Security Strategy and National
Carter. Last fall, Schmidt warned that the U.S. must invest more into A.I. or face security use of A.I. within the country; France adopt- Security Commission on AI. Top tech execu-
threats from countries like China. ed a national strategy called “AI for Humani- tives are often asked to serve on multiple
ty;” Germany adopted a national framework commissions or to engage in similar efforts
in 2018; Italy has an interdisciplinary A.I. across government. Paradoxically, this
task force; Kenya has an A.I. and blockchain creates a gap: with so many groups working
taskforce; Saudi Arabia has both a strategy either redundantly or even at odds with
and a legal framework giving citizenship to each other, the U.S. will miss strategic
robots; Singapore launched its national A.I. opportunities to coordinate efforts between
strategy in 2019; and perhaps the farthest the tech, finance and government sectors

so that significant forward progress can be Algorithmic Warfare is growing concern voiced by computer Using A.I. in Critical Systems
made within a reasonable timeframe. scientists, journalists and legal scholars
Our future wars will be fought in code, using Machine learning promises efficiencies and
who argue that A.I. systems shouldn’t be
data and algorithms as powerful weapons. new safeguards in our critical infrastructure
The Race to Establish A.I. Rules The current global order is being shaped by
so secretive. In August 2019, IBM Research
systems. For that reason, government re-
launched AI Explainability 360, an open-
Last year, China moved into position to lead artificial intelligence, and the same coun- searchers are exploring ways to spearhead
source toolkit of algorithms that support
the first set of global norms and standards tries leading the world in A.I. research – the A.I. development for critical systems use:
explainability of machine learning models.
to govern the future of artificial intelligence. U.S., China, Israel, France, Russia, the U.K., road and rail transportation systems, power
It’s open source so that other researchers
In 2019, China published a report on techni- and South Korea – are also developing generation and distribution and predicting
can build on and explain models that are
cal standards that would allow companies weapons systems that include at least some routes for such public safety vehicles as
more transparent. This isn’t a panacea—
to collaborate and make their systems autonomous functionality. Israel uses auton- ambulances and firetrucks. Rather than
there are only a few algorithms in the tool-
interoperable. The European Union and the omous drones for border patrol, while China shunning A.I. systems, there is new interest
kit—but it’s a public attempt to quantify and
Organisation for Economic Co-operation developed stealth drones capable of auton- in using the technology to prevent disasters
measure explainability. Broadly speaking,
and Development similarly published their omous airstrikes. Our FTI analysis shows and improve safety.
there are a few challenges that will need
own guidelines, and the Trump Administra- that the future of warfare encompasses
to be overcome. Requiring transparency in
tion signed an executive order to spur the more than traditional weapons. Using A.I.
A.I. could reveal a company’s trade secrets.
development of standards in the U.S. While techniques, a military can “win” by destabi-
Asking the systems to simultaneously
the result of these efforts could introduce lizing an economy rather than demolishing
explain their decision-making process
new ways to safeguard against bias and to countrysides and city centers. From that
could also degrade the speed and quality of
ensure trust, they also attempt to create a perspective, and given China’s unified march
output. It’s plausible that new regulations
strategic advantage for each stakeholder. advancing artificial intelligence, China is
requiring explainability will be enacted
As A.I. continues to develop according to dangerously far ahead of the West.
in various countries in the coming years.
different rules in China, the E.U. and the
Imagine sitting beside a genius mathemati-
U.S., one of the hallmarks of the field—glob- Making A.I. Explain Itself cian who gives you correct answers in Italy,
al academic collaboration—could drastically
You’ve undoubtedly heard someone argue but receiving her answers across the border
decline.
that A.I. is becoming a “black box”—that in France would mean asking her to stop
even those researchers working in the field and show her work, and so on every time
don’t understand how our newest systems she was asked to share her answers in a new
work. That’s not entirely true, however there country.
51
China’s A.I. Rules
 DEEPER DIVE Francisco, and they are investing signifi-

cantly in U.S. startups. Alibaba, China’s
If you think of China as a country that cop-
version of Amazon, will invest $15 billion
ies rather than innovates—think again.
into A.I. research over the next three years,
China Rules planting research centers in seven cities
worldwide, including San Mateo, California,
China is a global leader in artificial intel-
and Bellevue, Washington. Baidu (a Chinese
ligence. Under President Xi Jinping, the
search-engine company often likened to
country has made tremendous strides in
Google) established an A.I. research center
many fields, but especially in A.I. Business-
in Silicon Valley, and Tencent (the devel-
es and government have collaborated on
oper of the mega-popular messaging app
a sweeping plan to make China the world's
WeChat) began hunting for American talent
primary A.I. innovation center by 2030, and
when it opened an A.I. lab in Seattle two
it's already making serious progress toward
years ago. It has since upped its stakes in
that goal. That plan is unlikely to be repealed
companies like Tesla and Snap. The payoff
by a new government; last March, China
for the Chinese is not just a typical return
abolished Xi's term limits and will effectively
on investment—Chinese firms expect IP as
allow him to remain in power for life.
well. China-based A.I. startups now account
That gives China an incredible advantage for nearly half of all AI. investments globally.
over the West. It also gives three of China's
biggest companies—Baidu, Alibaba, and China’s Rules
Sensetime, one of the world’s most valuable A.I. startups, is helping China Tencent—superpowers. Collectively, they're In late 2019, China began requiring all citi-
build its futuristic panopticon. known as the BAT, and they're all part of the zens to submit to facial recognition in order
country’s well-capitalized, highly organized to apply for new internet or mobile services,
A.I. plan. The BAT is important to you even and telecommunications companies must
if you've never used them and don't do any deploy A.I. to check the identities of people
business in China. registering SIM cards. Chinese social media
That's because these companies are now platforms require users to sign up with
well established in Seattle and around San their “real-name identities.” In Chinese

schools, surveillance cameras outfitted with China’s Data Surplus Initiative as a platform to build international A.I. successes, including a recent test of
computer vision systems are in widespread partnerships in both physical and digital “swarm intelligence,” that can automate
The country’s massive population—nearing
use and track whether students are paying infrastructure, and it is making surveillance dozens of armed drones.
1.4 billion people—offers researchers and
attention, whether they are attempting to technologies available to countries with au-
startups there command of what may be
cheat or sleep, and how focused they are thoritarian regimes. Ecuador’s surveillance The Bottom Line
the most valuable natural resource in the
during lectures. These and other national system, called ECU-911, was built by two 有备则无患 is a Chinese proverb that
future—human data—without the privacy
standards make it easier for the government Chinese companies: the state-controlled roughly translates to "forewarned is fore-
and security restrictions common in much
to track its citizens. China’s social credit C.E.I.E.C. and Huawei. The system promised armed." Now that you know what's coming,
of the rest of the world. If data is the new
system, an algorithmic reputation system to curb high murder rates and drug crime, reframe your thinking of China as simply
oil, then China is the new OPEC. The kind
developed by the government, will standard- but it was too expensive an investment. As a the world's factory.
of rich data the Chinese are mining can be
ize assessments of citizens’ and businesses’ result, a deal was struck for a Chinese-built
used to train A.I. to detect patterns used in —Amy Webb
behavior and activity. It’s expected to be surveillance system financed with Chinese
everything from education and manufactur-
fully operational in the next year. loans. It was an entrée to a much more
ing to retail and military applications. The
lucrative deal: Ecuador eventually signed
Numerous complaints have criticized Chinese startup Sensetime is pioneering
away big portions of its oil reserves to China
China’s use of personal data, from allega- myriad recognition technologies, such as a
to help finance infrastructure projects.
tions of tracking, detaining and abusing the system that provides advertisers real-time
Similar package deals have been brokered
Uighur Muslim community to myriad other feedback on what people are watching,
in Venezuela and Bolivia.
human rights abuses in factories, where technology that can extract customer infor-
smart cameras find unproductive workers mation and carry out statistical analysis in China is quietly weaponizing A.I., too.
and alert human minders to physically strike crowded areas like shopping malls and su- China’s People Liberation Army is catching
them as “encouragement.” In November permarkets, and simultaneous recognition up to the U.S. when it comes to military
2019, a professor filed a lawsuit against of everything in a scene, whether it’s people, applications, using A.I. for such tasks as
the use of facial recognition technology. pets, automobiles, trees or soda cans. spotting hidden images with drones. The
Professor Guo Bing of Zhejiang Sci-Tech Chinese military is equipping helicopters
University alleged that when an amusement Risk Profile and jet fighters with A.I., the government
park scanned his face without consent, We have failed and are continuing to fail to created a top-secret military lab—a Chinese
it violated the country’s consumer rights see China as a militaristic, economic, and version of DARPA in the U.S.—and it’s build-
protection law. It is the first lawsuit of its diplomatic pacing threat when it comes to ing billion-dollar A.I. national laboratories.
kind in China. A.I. China has already used its Belt and Road China’s military is achieving remarkable
53
Society
Artificial Emotional Intelligence tion, the world’s first Minister of Loneliness. Problematic Data Sets
In our increasingly connected world, people
Research teams at Loving AI and Hanson In 2018, researchers at MIT revealed
report feeling more isolated. In the future,
Technologies are teaching machines uncon- “Norman,” an A.I. trained to perform image
governments struggling with a massive
ditional love, active listening and empathy. captioning, a deep learning method of gen-
mental health crisis, such as South Korea,
In the future, machines will convincingly ex- erating a textual description of an image.
may turn to emotional support robots to
hibit human emotions like love, happiness, They trained Norman using only the image
address this issue at scale.
fear and sadness—begging the question, captions from a subreddit that's known for
what is an authentic emotion? Theory of content that’s disturbing. When Norman
mind refers to the ability to imagine the
Personal Digital Twins was ready, they unleashed him against a
mental state of others. This has long been Last year’s Spring Festival Gala on China’s similar neural network that had been trained
considered a trait unique to humans and state broadcaster (CCTV) featured four well- using standard data. Researchers fed both
certain primates. A.I. researchers are work- known human hosts—Beining Sa, Xun Zhu, systems Rorschach inkblots and asked them
ing to train machines to build theory of mind Bo Gao, and Yang Long—alongside their to caption what they saw, and the results
Researchers at Loving A.I. and Hanson models of their own. This technology could digital twins. With an estimated billion peo- were striking: Where the standard system
Technologies are teaching machines improve existing A.I. therapy applications ple watching, the A.I. copies mimicked their saw “a black and white photo of a baseball
unconditional love, active listening and such as WoeBot. By designing machines to human counterparts without pre-scripted glove,” Norman saw “a man murdered by
empathy. respond with empathy and concern, digital behaviors, speeches or routines. There are machine gun in broad daylight.” The point of
assistants like Alexa will become more and a number of startups building customizable, the experiment was to prove that A.I. isn’t
more a part of one’s family. This technology trainable platforms that are capable of inherently biased, but that data input meth-
could eventually end up in hospitals, schools learning from you—and then representing ods—and the people inputting that data—
and prisons, providing emotional support you online via personal digital twins. ObEN can significantly alter an A.I.’s behavior.
robots to patients, students and inmates. created the twins for CCTV, while Molly,
In 2019, new pre-trained systems built for
According to research from health service a Y Combinator-backed startup, answers
natural language generation were re-
organization Cigna, the rate of loneliness questions via text. The near-future could
leased—and the conversations they learned
in the U.S. has doubled in the last 50 years. include digital twins for professionals
from were scraped from Reddit and Amazon
Two years ago, former U.K. Prime Minister across a range of fields, including health
reviews. This is problematic: Both Reddit
Theresa May created a new cabinet posi- and education.
and Amazon commenters skew white and
male, which means that their use of lan-
guage isn’t representative of everyone. But

it illustrates an ongoing challenge within the communities. In 2018, Amazon pitched A.I. Still Has a Bias Problem tute, among others—are studying the side
developer community. It is already difficult Immigration and Customs Enforcement on effects of automatic decision-making. You,
It’s no secret A.I. has a serious and multi-
to get authentic data from real people to an A.I. system capable of identifying and or someone you know, could wind up on the
faceted bias problem. Just one example:
train systems, and with new privacy restric- tracking immigrants and said its Rekogni- wrong side of the algorithm and discover
The data sets used for training often come
tions, developers may choose to rely more tion face scanning platform could assist you’re ineligible for a loan, or a particular
from places like Reddit, Amazon reviews
on public—and problematic—data sets. with homeland security investigations. The medication, or the ability to rent an apart-
and Wikipedia, a site inherently riddled with
Multiple Encounter Dataset is a big data- ment, for reasons that aren’t transparent
bias. The people building models tend to
A.I. to Catch Cheaters base that contains two big sets of photos:
be homogeneous and aren’t often aware of
or easy to understand. Increasingly, data is
people who have not yet committed a crime, being harvested and sold to third parties
A.I. is also being used to catch cheaters. their own biases. As computer systems get
and an FBI data set of deceased people. without your knowledge. These biases can
ECRI Institute’s Crosscheq uses machine better at making decisions, algorithms may
The dataset overindexes on people of color, reinforce themselves over time. As A.I.
learning and data analytics to look for hyper- sort each of us into groups that don’t make
which means that if law enforcement use applications become more ubiquitous, the
bole and misleading information during the any obvious sense to us—but could have
the data to train algorithms, it’s going to negative effects of bias will have greater
hiring process. Drexel University research- massive repercussions. Every single day,
lead to bias. Image recognition is a particu- impact. The Apple card gave high credit lim-
ers built an app that uses biometrics to you are creating unimaginable amounts of
larly vexing challenge, because researchers its for men versus women, in some cases, by
predict when dieters are likely to stray from data, both actively (like when uploading and
need large datasets to perform their work. a factor of 20. Wearables such as Google’s
their prescribed regimen. Researchers at tagging photos on Facebook) and passively
Often, images are used without consent. Fitbit are considerably less accurate for
the University of Copenhagen created a ma- (driving to work, for example). Those data
The Child Exploitation Image Analytics pro- darker skin-types because of how melanin
chine learning system to spot cheating on are mined and used, often without your
gram—a data set used by facial recognition absorbs green light. This is problematic
essays with, they say, a 90% accuracy rate. direct knowledge or understanding, by
technology developers for testing—has been when insurance companies use biased algo-
algorithms. It is used to create advertising,
running since at least 2016 with images rithms to track heart rates, blood pressure
Algorithms Designed to Target of “children who range in age from infant
to help potential employers predict our
and risk rates for conditions like irregular
Vulnerable Populations through adolescent” and the majority of
behaviors, to determine our mortgage rates
heartbeats or a potential heart attack.
and even to help law enforcement predict
In countries around the world, A.I. is being which “feature coercion, abuse, and sexual
whether or not we’re likely to commit a
used at border crossings, within poor activity,” according to the program’s own
crime. Researchers at a number of univer-
A.I. Systems Intentionally
neighborhoods, and in school districts developer documentation. These images Hiding Data
sities—including the University of Maryland,
where delinquency is a problem. Most of the are considered particularly challenging for
Columbia University, Carnegie Mellon, MIT, Computers do exactly what they are told
time, the technology is billed as a solution, the software because of the greater vari-
Princeton, University of California-Berke- to do. Command a machine to win at a
but it serves to disenfranchise vulnerable ability of position, context, and more.
ley, International Computer Science Insti- game, and it will do everything in its power
55
Society cont.
to achieve that goal. Apparently that now The Rise of Undocumented all published works outlining different lected in the first place may also influence
includes cheating. Researchers at Stanford A.I. Accidents versions of a “digital dividend” – a way for the trustworthiness and validity of scientific
and Google discovered that an A.I. created companies to pay back to society a portion research, particularly in areas such as organ
There were a number of A.I.-related acci-
to turn satellite images into usable maps of the profits derived from A.I. donations and medical research.
dents in 2018 and 2019, but only a few made
was withholding certain data. Research- Committing to transparency in method
the headlines. An Uber self-driving car hit
ers were using a neural network called Prioritizing Accountability would create trust without necessarily
and killed a pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona—
CycleGAN, which learns how to map image and Trust divulging any personal data. In addition,
but there were countless more incidents
transformations. For example, it could take employing ethicists to work directly with
that didn’t result in death, and as a result, We will soon reach a point when we will
an old aerial photograph of a neighbor- managers and developers and ensuring
aren’t known to the public. At the moment, no longer be able to tell if a data set has
hood, distinguish between streets, alleys, developers themselves are diverse—rep-
researchers are not obligated to report been tampered with, either intentionally or
driveways, buildings and lamp posts, and resenting different races, ethnicities and
accidents or incidents involving our data, or accidentally. A.I. systems rely on our trust.
generate a map that could be used by a GPS. genders—will reduce inherent bias in A.I.
A.I. processes, unless a law is broken. While If we no longer trust the outcome, decades
Initially, they used an aerial photograph systems.
big companies must inform consumers if of research and technological advancement
that hadn’t been seen by the network. The
their personal data—credit card numbers, will be for naught. Leaders in every sec-
resulting image looked very close to the
home addresses, passwords—have been tor—government, business, the nonprofit
original—suspiciously close. But on deeper
stolen, they are not required to publicly doc- world and so on—must have confidence in
inspection, the researchers found that
ument instances in which algorithms have the data and algorithms used. Building trust
there were lots of details in both the original
learned to discriminate against someone on and accountability is a matter of showing
image and the image generated that weren’t
the basis of race or gender, for example. the work performed. This is a complicated
visible in the map made by the A.I. It turns
process, and, understandably, corporations,
out that the system learned to hide informa-
tion about the original image inside of the A.I. and Digital Dividends government offices, law enforcement agen-
cies and other organizations want to keep
image it generated. Artificial intelligence will inevitably lead to
data private. The scientific community is
a shift in the global workforce, causing job
focusing on efforts to standardize guide-
losses across many industries. Researchers
lines for research reproducibility and data
at Oxford’s Institute for Humanity, research-
sets with open source tools such as Qeresp
ers at the Future Today Institute, and U.S.
and crowd-sourced fact-checking by sites
presidential candidate Andrew Yang have
like Melwy. The ethics of how data is col-

SCENARIO • ELENA GIRALT SCENARIO • ELENA GIRALT
A.I. Bans for Specific Industries A.I. Becomes a Self-Fulfilling

Prophecy
NEAR-FUTURE NEUTRAL SCENARIO NEAR-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
Because it’s difficult to ensure that A.I. is not discriminating for With increased investment in surveillance tools and continued
or against certain populations in the United States, the use of A.I. use of social networks, companies gain access to larger and
is restricted or banned entirely from certain processes. That in- larger digital profiles of every individual customer. These profiles
cludes risk assessment for health insurance, bank loans, employ- are fed into A.I. learning models to label, cluster and classify us
ee recruitment and hiring, and college admissions. into customer segments. Instead of broad categories with high
variability (men over 40, women aged 18-30), hyper-targeted cus-
tomer segments will become self-fulfilling prophecies and further
ingrain our differences. A company has reams of data on, say, a
7-year-old boy living in a rural community—so much data that it
can pre-classify him into a future customer segment and begin
feeding him content, ads and products to further reinforce this
label. Eventually, consumers don’t know if they are exploring their
own identities or simply assuming the identities assigned to them
by A.I.
57
02 Scoring
62 Persistent Tracking
and Scoring
62 Scoring Agencies are
on the Rise
62 Vast Differences in
Verification Systems
63 Behavioral Biometrics
63
Scoring Vulnerable
Populations
63
Surveillance
Scoring-as-a-Service
(SSaaS)
63 Bias in Scoring Systems
64 Conflicting Norms,
Standards and Regulations
for Scoring
64 Intentionally Opaque
Methodologies
59
2ND YEAR ON THE LIST
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Scoring
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WHY IT MATTERS

In order for our automated systems to work, Recent advancements in data mining and
they need both our data and a framework artificial intelligence promise new oppor-
for making decisions. Everyone alive today tunities for business intelligence and law
is being scored. enforcement. There are risks, too: China
is selling its government-funded scoring
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW tools to authoritarian regimes elsewhere in
In the U.S., we have a credit reporting the world. We anticipate that in the coming
system that measures our creditworthiness. year, regulators will take a deeper interest
Banks, financial institutions and others use in scoring.
that score to determine the likelihood that
we might default on a loan or mortgage.  DEEPER DIVE
Financial credit scoring is tightly regulated
The Age of Algorithmic Determinism
and available to all consumers—we can re-
quest copies of our financial credit scores, Our data are being mined, refined and
check their accuracy and correct errors. productized to sort, tag and catalogue
Now, hundreds of types of data are being us. Why? To make it easier for systems to
Quantifying and analyzing our biometric data can reveal patterns in our activities and, as a harnessed to assign us scores. However, make decisions for, on behalf of and about
result, reveal a lot about who we are, what we’re thinking and what we are likely to do next. unlike the credit reporting system, which is us. We’re living in a new age of algorithmic
federally regulated and follows set process- determinism, where we increasingly rely on
es, this kind of data isn’t subject to enforce- A.I. systems to make choices—even if those
able rules. It can be impossible to find out systems score us without being able to
what our scores are, how they are being understand our nuanced histories, special
calculated and how to correct them if there circumstances and the unique characteris-
are inaccuracies. tics of our humanity.

The Price is Right—For Some trust is glorious and breaking trust is dis- China is Scoring Companies, Too THE IMPACT
graceful.” The system will take some time
Algorithms can determine how likely we are A longstanding goal of China’s Social Credit Scoring presents tremendous opportunities
to become fully operational nationwide, but
to break the law, what kinds of mobile plans System is to create what the Communist to help businesses understand their cus-
already it’s granting and restricting permis-
we should qualify for, what sort of news Party of China (CCP) calls a “fair, transpar- tomers better, which is why in 2020 every
sions for Chinese citizens algorithmically.
we should be shown and even how much ent and predictable” business environment. organization must develop a data gover-
Last year, the system determined that 13
we’re willing to pay for a roll of toilet paper. To accomplish that goal starting in 2020, nance strategy and ethics policy. For those
million Chinese citizens are untrustworthy.
Researchers at the Consumer Education businesses that operate in China will begin who work in risk and compliance, 2020
Citizens are awarded or deducted points for
Foundation found that when visiting e-com- to earn and lose points as part of China’s will be the start of a newly complicated
a variety of activities, such as paying bills
merce sites, anonymous shoppers were corporate social credit system. The plan in- landscape. Organizations will need to hire
on time, spreading news contrary to the
offered products at lower prices than the cludes centralizing data from domestic and compliance specialists who understand the
government’s viewpoints or spending too
researchers themselves. For example, when foreign companies in a government system complexities of using scoring systems.
much time playing video games.
browsing anonymously at Walmart.com, a that allows the CCP to monitor the activities For those in the public sector, mas-
box of ballpoint pens was listed for $4.15, In late 2019, a leak of highly classified gov- of all entities operating in China. sive-scale scoring impacts every facet of
but when Walmart had access to other data ernment documents revealed an opera-
our daily lives, and it will soon influence
from the researchers, that price spiked to tions manual for detention camps in the far The Sky is Watching
geoeconomic relationships around the
$9.69. Customers are being algorithmically western region of Xinjiang, where scoring There’s an old Chinese adage that says, world. Chinese tech companies—Huawei,
assigned scores based on the predicted is used for predictive policing. It is in this “People are doing things, and the sky is Hikvision, Dahua and ZTE—are building
profit they might generate for the company, region where China’s Muslim Uighur commu- watching.” But it holds true for the West, and supplying the scoring apparatus for
and served different prices accordingly. nity lives. The International Consortium of too. Increasingly, everything we do is being 63 countries around the world. Of those,
Investigative Journalists published a detailed watched and recorded. Algorithms assign 36 have signed on to China’s Belt and Road
China is Scoring its Citizens report showing the scope and ambition of us scores all the time, by governments in Initiative. It isn’t just that China is export-
By now, you are familiar with China’s Social Beijing’s scoring system, which awards points some countries and by the commercial ing technology, it is actively creating an
Credit System, a vast ranking system that and punishments for inmates in the camps. sector in others. environment where the CCP can also export
this year will see a national rollout. First an- China argues its “re-education camps” and
its influence.
nounced in 2014, it promises to make good scoring system were built to combat terror-
on the government’s stance that "keeping ists and radical religious extremism.
61
Scoring cont.
WATCHLIST FOR SECTION  TRENDS Best Buy and Sephora whether to accept
or reject a product you’ve purchased from
AI Now Institute, Airbnb, Alibaba, Amazon,
Amazon Neighbors, Amazon Rekognition Persistent Tracking and Scoring them online. Zeta Global scores you based
on how much money you’re likely to spend,
system, Amazon Ring, American Civil Liber- Retailers hope to gain access to our homes
while MaxMind scores you based on your
ties Union, Apple Home Kit, Baidu, Best Buy, to deliver purchases—and also to learn more
location in the real world. Collectively, these
California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), about what we’re likely to buy next. Now
companies are mining thousands of your
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, China’s affordable, Google’s various home automa-
unique data points, including how many
Social Credit System, Clarifai, Communist tion systems make it easy for you to shop
times you open apps on your phone, which
Party of China, Consumer Education Foun- online and to take while traveling. Workers
devices you use, where you spend time,
dation, Dahua, Electronic Frontier Founda- from both Amazon.com and Walmart.com
what kinds of food you order for delivery and
In China, Megvii’s Face++ system recognizes tion, Electronic Privacy Information Center, will deliver packages indoors and even stock
insights from messages you’ve sent to Uber
and scores your credit-worthiness before European Union, Facebook, Google, Google your refrigerator with groceries, and to allay
drivers and Airbnb hosts.
you walk into a bank or retail store. Nest, Hikvision, Huawei, IBM Watson, Inter- fears of theft, those workers wear cameras.
national Consortium of Investigative Jour- The problem? Amazon and Walmart will
nalists, Iovation, Kount, Kustomer, MaxMind, store video footage of the delivery, allowing
Vast Differences in Verification
Megvii’s Face++, Microsoft facial analysis them to develop computer vision analytics Systems
systems, MIT Media Lab, Retail Equation, and other processes to gain insights from Unlike the three major credit agencies
Riskified, Sensetime, Sephora, Tencent, the millions of hours of video collected. (Equifax, Experian and TransUnion), which
Uber, University of Colorado-Boulder, U.S. produce scores that typically fall within
Federal Communications Commission, Scoring Agencies Are On the Rise roughly the same range, the systems that
US Federal Trade Commission, Walmart, generate scores in the datascape each
Hundreds of companies now score cus-
Walmart.com, Zeta Global, ZTE. use different inputs and methodologies to
tomers. Some, like Iovation, Kount and
arrive at their answers. Unlike finance, this
Riskified, focus on niche areas like fraud de-
new consumer scoring has no standard-
tection, while such companies as Kustomer
ization, the algorithms are automated, and
score you more broadly to determine your
companies cloak methodologies under the
purchasing power and your general frame
premise of proprietary algorithms.
of mind. Retail Equation’s algorithms tell

Behavioral Biometrics Scoring Vulnerable Populations optimize our daily lives, and those scoring
systems have appeal beyond their original
Quantifying and analyzing our biometric A.I.-powered recognition tools have
use cases. For example, Amazon applied for
data can reveal patterns in our activities— well-documented blind spots. They often
a U.S. patent for an unmanned aerial vehicle
and as a result, reveal a lot about who we return incorrect results for people of color
that can perform surveillance from the air
are, what we’re thinking, and what we are and for trans, queer and nonbinary individ-
and generate images that could be used by
likely to do next. This is why companies like uals. In November 2019, researchers at the
others. Surveillance Scoring-as-a-Service
Facebook have come under intense scrutiny University of Colorado-Boulder showed how
(SSaas) would be a monetized byproduct of
in the past year. Behavioral biometrics tools scoring tools—including Clarifai, Amazon’s
its drone delivery service, and it would fit
can be used to map and measure how you Rekognition system, IBM Watson, Megvii’s
into its broader constellation of surveillance
type—what force you use to press down Face++ and Microsoft facial analysis sys-
scoring technologies. In February 2018,
on screens, whether you fat finger your tems—habitually misidentified non-cisgen- China’s social credit score is visible in many
Amazon acquired the video-equipped smart
C’s and V’s on your phone and how quickly der people. Another study, this one from the cities. In Rongcheng, photos of “civilized
doorbell company Ring, and three months
you tend to flick your fingers when hunting MIT Media Lab, found that 33% of the time, families” are displayed on public notice-
later it launched Neighbors, a crime-report-
through search results. Those tools know Rekognition misidentified women of color boards. Photo credit: Simina Mistreanu.
ing social network that encourages Ring
your unique typing pattern on a physical as men. Even so, companies and govern-
users to upload videos from their security
keyboard, too: whether you’re someone ment agencies continue to score vulnerable
cameras and doorbells for others to see.
who constantly spells the word “behavioral” communities. Law enforcement, immi-
Now, more than 400 law enforcement agen-
wrong on the first try, and whether you hold gration officials, banks, universities and
cies in the U.S. use data from Ring.
down or repeatedly tap on the delete button. even religious institutions now use scoring
You’re not consciously aware that you have systems. The Charlottesville Police Depart-
certain identifiable behaviors, but machines ment was publicly criticized early this year
Bias in Scoring Systems
perceive them. We also don’t realize that for placing smart cameras in communities It is no secret that many of our machine
they will pose security vulnerabilities—as with public housing and using A.I. systems learning models—and the data they use to
well as interesting new opportunities—in to monitor activity. recognize others—are encoded with bias.
the near future. Imagine never having to That’s because the people who built the
use a password again; your bank would Surveillance Scoring-as-a- models are themselves subject to uncon-
simply recognize it’s you after typing a few Service (SSaaS) scious bias, as well as more explicit ho-
sentences. The downside is that if your mogeneous learning and working environ-
Some of our largest tech giants are build-
behavior is observable, at some point it will ments. Everyone seems to agree we have
ing comprehensive systems intended to
become repeatable, too.
63
Scoring cont.
a bias problem, but so far the tech industry Conflicting Norms, Standards without a consumer’s explicit permission. through the old process, this system looks
still doesn’t have a plan for how to address and Regulations for Scoring Individual cities are passing their own data for other details, such as whether you al-
and solve for bias in recognition systems privacy laws, too. Oakland, Seattle, Portland ready have a Google cookie in your browser
There is no single set of standards nor a
that are now scoring all of us continuously. and New York City also approved guidelines and whether you’re logged into your Google
unified code of norms for scoring. That’s
The algorithmic bias problem will likely get on how personal data can be used. There is account. Over time, the system learns the
resulted in a piecemeal approach to
worse, especially as more law enforcement no end in sight to scoring regulations, and patterns of real people—but it also means
regulating scoring and scoring agencies.
agencies and the justice system adopt in the years to come, this kind of data gover- that Google could gain access to every
Recently, new laws were proposed in Latin
recognition technologies. To reduce bias, nance will challenge audience insights, risk single page you’re accessing. The email
America seeking to strengthen privacy law.
Facebook announced in June of 2019 that and compliance, and distribution for enter- program Superhuman similarly uses hidden
For example, last year Argentine President
it was building an independent oversight tainment, news and technology companies. tracking tools. Designer and news entre-
Mauricio Macri submitted a bill to drasti-
board—a kind of “supreme court”—to judge preneur Mike Davidson researched how
cally overhaul the country’s data privacy
itself. The board of 40 people would make Intentionally Opaque consumers were being tracked within Su-
protection law, which hadn’t been updated
content review decisions in small panels, Methodologies perhuman and revealed numerous opaque
since 2000. It establishes the right to be
in an effort to curtail false or misleading surveillance techniques being used—some
forgotten, the right to data portability, and New tools intended to enhance our digital
information, cyber bullying and meddling to power features like email read receipts.
it would limit the scope of scoring by third experience instead track us without explic-
by governments wishing to harm countries (To be fair, Superhuman isn’t the only com-
party companies. The E.U.’s GDPR regula- itly showing how or why. The latest version
and their citizens. Research scientists Kate pany embedding tracking pixels in emails.)
tions restrict what kinds of personal data of reCAPTCHA, which determines whether
Crawford and Meredith Whittaker founded This could be problematic for a journalist
can be collected and under what circum- we are bots or not, isn’t visible. Rather than
the AI Now Institute to study bias in A.I. as working in a country ruled by an authoritar-
stances, but even that is enforced differ- asking consumers to click a box saying “I’m
well as the impacts the technology will have ian regime. How to use tracking tools ethi-
ently by local authorities. In 2019, New York not a robot” or select which pictures show
on human rights and labor. In response to a cally and how to disclose their true reach to
State lawmakers introduced a consumer traffic lights or bananas, this latest version
scathing investigative report by ProPubli- consumers should be a discussion had by
privacy law that would give consumers more invisibly tracks how someone navigates
ca on bias in the technologies used in the every entertainment, media and technology
control over their data. It would require through a website and assigns them a risk
criminal justice system, the New York City company this year.
businesses—including news and entertain- score. Developed by Google, reCAPTCHA
Council and Mayor Bill de Blasio passed
ment companies—to demonstrate they are not only establishes that a computer user
a bill requiring more transparency in A.I.
prioritizing customer privacy over profit. is human, it also helps digitize books and
Microsoft hired creative writers and artists
Illinois was one of the first states to enact improve machine learning programs. While
to train A.I. in language, while IBM is devel-
legislation preventing facial recognition it may be far less annoying than clicking
oping a set of independent bias ratings to
determine whether A.I. systems are fair.

When the Bathroom at Your Favorite

Restaurant Won’t Let You In
NEAR-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
You’re out with colleagues at the city’s hottest new restaurant, which has amaz-
ing Italian food but is in a somewhat dangerous neighborhood. It’s a fantastic
night. On the menu: Sautéed mussels, shrimp and calamari in a fennel tomato
broth over saffron orzo, which you enjoy along with some handmade burrata
and a big hunk of fresh baked bread. The group became friendly during your
company’s LGBTQIA after work happy hour and now shares a bottle of red wine.
You opt instead for a nice, hoppy IPA. As you sit together, talking about your
projects (and, if we’re being totally honest, laughing at that coworker who blath-
ers nonstop and constantly asks everyone else for help), all the water and beer
makes its way through you. You take a last swig of your IPA and excuse yourself
to the bathroom. You notice cameras outfitted on the doors. Must be because
a few weeks ago, there was an “incident.” The doors now auto lock and unlock
after a quick scan by the camera. You grab a hold of the doorknob, but it won’t
budge. You try again, shaking it this time. A server comes near, with a sullen,
embarrassed expression. “I’m really sorry,” she says. “I mean, you look amazing.
Really you do. I don’t think they intended for this to keep happening, because
you’re not the only one. It’s just that your lipstick and earrings are confusing the
camera. We’re still stuck with men’s and women’s bathrooms.”
65
03 Recognition
70 Faceprints
70 Voiceprints
71
Automatic Voice
Transcription
71 Bone Recognition
71 Bioacoustic Recognition
71 WiFi Recognition
72 Proximity Recognition
72 Two-factor Biometric-
based Authentication
72 Gesture Recognition
73 Object Recognition in
Computational Photography
73 Biometric Camouflage
74 Personality Recognition
74 Accent Recognition
75 Emotional Recognition
75
Responsive Recognition
Technology
75 Affective Computing
75 Genetic Recognition
75
Universal Genetic
Databases
76 Persistent Workplace
and School Surveillance
77 Food Recognition Systems
67
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Recognition
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT we’re sad, and express enthusiasm when

we’re excited.
It is officially the end of anonymity. We are
surrounded by cameras, speakers and a
WHY IT MATTERS
host of other smart devices that monitor us
in real-time, all the time. Recognition sys- Our current digital economy is transaction-
tems use hundreds of different data points al, built on e-commerce, the transfer of
to identify and monitor us and to predict data, and automating business processes.
our likely future actions both online and in What new business models will be needed
the physical world. for our recognition economy?
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW  DEEPER DIVE

Recognition systems, whether they use our Ethical Concerns
voices, faces or fingerprints, are wildly pop-
Governments, law enforcement agencies
ular for good reason. There is tremendous
and others are interested in getting access
value in all of this discoverability. Persistent
to all of this data for a variety of reasons.
recognition allows companies to learn more
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
about consumers and provide them with
China’s Alipay recently added a “beauty filter” to encourage more women to use and Immigration and Customs Enforcement
a level of personalization that could not
face recognition payment systems. Users see an enhanced version of themselves (ICE) have each used images from state
possibly be achieved at scale any other way.
reflected back on the screen. license databases to build a powerful facial
Predictive recognition systems help law en-
recognition system. While police in the U.S.
forcement agencies keep track of criminals
have access to biometric data (fingerprints
and prevent their next offense. Respon-
and DNA) from people who’ve been arrested,
sive recognition technologies understand
this image recognition system includes res-
context and interact with us accordingly:
idents who have never been charged with
They’re starting to empathize with us when
a crime. Whereas someone who has been

arrested knows their photo and fingerprints Data Breaches practices… The case against Facebook ted? With today’s technology, do you really
have been taken, U.S. residents are not is about more than just privacy—it is also think a company needs a camera to see who
Companies and governments are collecting
informed when their driver license photos about the power to control and manipulate. we are and what we’re doing?
data on the general public, and the data
are being entered into a database and used Global regulators and policymakers need
security systems of these organizations
with machine learning algorithms. Privacy to confront the dangers associated with WATCHLIST FOR SECTION
have exhibited significant vulnerabilities. In
laws differ in every local jurisdiction in the mass surveillance and the resulting ability Google’s Project Jacquard, Google’s Project
2019, a line of agencies and firms, includ-
U.S., and they lag behind technology signifi- to control and influence us. The behavioral Soli, Google’s Recorder App, JetBlue, Kon-
ing U.S. Customs and Border Protection,
cantly. The cities of Oakland, San Francisco, advertising business incentives of technolo- takt.io’s Bluetooth Card Beacon, LG, Osram,
Capital One and State Farm, suffered data
and Somerville, Massachusetts passed laws gy platforms spur practices that are dividing Massachusetts General Hospital, MIT’s
breaches. In July 2019, the Federal Trade
banning city departments—including po- our society. The harm from this conduct is Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence
Commission fined Facebook $5 billion after
lice—from using facial recognition software. immeasurable, and regulators and policy- Laboratory (CSAIL), National Taiwan Uni-
a yearlong investigation into the compa-
makers must confront it.” versity of Science and Technology, Nvidia,
Meanwhile, airports are beginning to test ny’s business practices and advertising
face recognition technology. At JetBlue model. Commissioner Rohit Chopra wrote Road Wise, Samsung, SpotterEDU, State
There’s No Going Back Farm, Tencent, Twitter, U.S. Air Force, U.S.
e-gates, travelers must allow their faces a stunning dissent: “Facebook’s violations
to be scanned before they board planes. were a direct result of the company’s Smart technology is everywhere: in our Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Fed-
In Atlanta, Delta’s biometric terminal uses behavioral advertising business model. cars, homes, offices and pockets—we are eral Bureau of Investigations, U.S. Federal
faces—rather than printed or mobile board- Facebook flagrantly violated the FTC’s 2012 literally surrounded by it. Plus, many of our Trade Commission, U.S. Immigration and
ing cards—throughout the check-in and order by deceiving its users and allowing daily activities require some form of bio- Customs Enforcement, University of Arizo-
boarding process. While technically U.S. pay-for-play data harvesting by develop- metric recognition. The more commonplace na’s Department of Electrical and Computer
citizens have the right to opt out, flying can ers. The company’s behavioral advertising this recognition technology becomes, the Engineering, University of California-Santa
be a stressful experience, especially when business, which monetizes user behavior harder it will be to regulate it, despite such Barbara, Vanderbilt University, Waitrose.
there are complications like delays. As a re- through mass surveillance, contributed to efforts gaining momentum in the U.S. and
sult, travelers have been trading liberties for these violations. Cambridge Analytica’s Europe. Local city governments can try to
conveniences and the opportunity to make tactics of profiling and targeting users were ban Face ID on iPhones, but what about all
air travel less fraught and more efficient. a small-scale reflection of Facebook’s own of the other personal data being transmit-
69
Recognition cont.
 TRENDS locating a particular target in an instant.”

In practice, this means that a stadium can
Faceprints be scanned and, within seconds, produce a
high-resolution image of every single face
Our faces each have unique bone, capillary
for recognition algorithms. Researchers in
and muscular construction, in addition
Japan and China are working on represen-
to physical characteristics and pigments
tation models that require only a portion of
that are specific to each one of us. Even
one’s face, even in low light, to accurately
identical twins aren’t truly carbon copies
predict their identity—even as they change
of each other—they have thousands of tiny,
their hairstyles, get plastic surgery or grow
potentially even imperceptible differences.
a beard. Legal challenges in 2019 resulted in
Just like we each have unique fingerprints,
some U.S. cities barring city departments
we also have unique faceprints. When a
from using facial recognition technology
recognition system scans a human face, it
without first going through approved proce-
can be used to identify who the person is,
dures. Individual cities, counties and states
based on their biometric features. Snap’s
now have different regulations stipulating
famous selfie filters use faceprints to map
who can use faceprints and under what
digital overlays and alter them in real time.
circumstances.
China’s Alipay uses faceprints to authen-
ticate people’s identities as they make
Voiceprints
purchases. Facebook uses the technology
to automatically tag people in the photos Just as each person has a unique set of
Google’s Recorder app automatically transcribes audio.
uploaded. Shanghai-based Fudan Universi- characteristics that make up their faces,
ty and Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine our voices also have a wide array of measur-
Mechanics and Physics (part of the Chinese able characteristics that uniquely identify
Academy of Sciences) in Changchun de- who we are. Our voiceprints are what enable
veloped a 500-megapixel facial recognition smart Bluetooth speakers like Amazon’s
camera that is able to capture “thousands Alexa to recognize different people within
of faces at a stadium in perfect detail and the same space. New machine learning
generate their facial data for the cloud while techniques, combined with vast datasets

of recorded voices, have now enabled re- shows and serving medical and pharmaco- unique sound signature is generated. the space around you (and possibly spill-
searchers to identify us simply by listening logical teams as they work with patients. Researchers at the Electronics Telecom- ing just outside to the street). It turns out
to the micro-signatures produced when munications Research Institute in South that, with the right device, it’s possible to
we speak. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon Bone Recognition Korea built a system to map the bioacoustic watch us moving through the signals as they
University discovered a generative tech- signatures created as sound waves pass bounce off us and onto other objects. What
In 2018, the U.S. Air Force applied for a
nique allowing them to build a 3D version of through humans. The machine uses a trans- this means in practice: WiFi signals can be
patent that explains how wideband radar
someone’s face using only their voiceprint. ducer that gently vibrates (and, as a result, harnessed to recognize us and our move-
can be used to identify people by their bone
This system is being deployed by law en- generate sound waves even if they’re not ments through our walls. Researchers at the
structure. A transmitting antenna sends a
forcement agencies to identify prank callers detectable to human ears). After the sound University of California-Santa Barbara used
signal to a human, and that person’s bio-
in a practice known as “swatting,” in which waves pass through a person’s skin, bones ambient wifi signals and a smartphone to
metric radar signature is compared against
they make false claims to local agencies, and soft tissues, a unique bioacoustic sig- look for revealing pattern changes in signal
known signatures in a database. For people
which then unwittingly deploy emergency nature is created. Using these signatures, strength. MIT’s Computer Science and Ar-
with screws and metal bars in their bodies,
crew to false emergencies. they can now discreetly and non-invasively tificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) and
this gives others a new way to identify you
determine a person’s identity. Massachusetts General Hospital developed
in a crowd: Your metal may be invisible to
Automatic Voice Transcription everyday people but turn into clear beacons
a device that uses an advanced A.I. algo-
Late in 2019, Google debuted a new app when scanned. Since 2018, a number of WiFi Recognition rithm to analyze the radio signals around
someone when they’re sleeping. The system
called Recorder, which uses A.I. to automat- research papers have been published about We are continuously surrounded by radio
then translates all of their body movements
ically recognize and transcribe voices with the technology. In addition, scientists at waves, thanks to the millions of WiFi routers
into the stages of sleep: light, deep or REM
near-perfect accuracy. Available on Google’s the University of Arizona’s Department of around us. While you can’t see, hear or feel
(rapid eye movement). Imagine a future
Pixel 4 phones only, it is able to recognize Electrical and Computer Engineering have them, you’re living in a field of 2.4- and
in which your WiFi router collects your
specific conversations, which means that developed a way of measuring skeletal pos- 5-gigahertz radio signals. Anytime you
physical movements, then calculates your
crosstalk and background noise won’t affect ture using mmWave radar and convolutional move—take a sip of water, or look out your
health metrics, and automatically adjusts
the transcription technology. Amazon’s neural networks. window, wash your hair—you are distorting
the devices and appliances in your house to
Transcribe Medical automatically converts the waves.
help you live a better life—if you’re snoring,
speech used in medical settings into text. Bioacoustic Recognition The WiFi transmitter in your home or office for example, your pillow could automatically
There are lots of practical applications for
Sound is continuously passing through is continually sending and receiving infor- inflate or deflate to adjust the angle of your
automatic voice transcription: recording
space, even if we can’t hear it. As sound mation, which it converts into radio waves. head and neck. Another CSAIL team built a
meeting minutes, taking lecture notes,
waves pass through physical objects, a The signals aren’t very strong, only filling up WiFi device that could read human emotion
generating transcriptions for podcasts and
71
Recognition cont.
using a wireless router. Called EQ-Radio, scores. For example, Toronto-based GAO two-factor authentication method that first
it successfully detected emotions without Group developed a system that monitors looks at skeleton topologies and then finger
disturbing the person being monitored. In location and predicts safety, develops vein patterns.
2018, they were able to generate images of better workflow optimization and monitors
a person’s skeleton in motion, showing pos- employee productivity. On college campus- Gesture Recognition
ture and movements in real time using WiFi. es, SpotterEDU has deployed its Bluetooth
Gesture recognition technologies are now
Practical applications of the technology technology to 40 schools in the U.S.,
capable of interpreting motion to identify us
range from motion capture for video gaming including Indiana University and Columbia
and make decisions on our behalf. Emerg-
to giving law enforcement and military new University. Proximity recognition technol-
ing gesture recognition systems represent
ways to see through walls. ogy might track a student who is habitually
natural user interfaces (NUIs), and they
late for class and doesn’t visit the library
will be an important future component
Proximity Recognition enough—they could be labeled as “high risk”
of many different technologies. Imagine
for dropping out.
Instead of GPS coordinates, some offic- picking up a digital object with your hand,
es and schools have deployed Bluetooth or controlling a remote robotic arm without
beacons and wireless access points to track Two-Factor Biometric-Based being tethered to a bunch of wires. Gesture
people as they move around. The technolo- Authentication recognition unlocks the interplay between
gy can collect as many as 6,000 data points Looking for unique biomarkers beneath the our physical and digital realms. Google’s
per day per person, which suggests that surface of our skin is a clever way of iden- Pixel 4 phone can be controlled without
location can be pinpointed down to just a tifying us—you can change your hairstyle or touching the screen. Instead, the phone
few feet. Kontakt.io’s Bluetooth Card Bea- wear colored contacts, but it’s really tricky uses motion sense and radar technology
con is used as a traditional security access to rewire your vein structure. Using biomet- to detect micro-gestures. The technol-
A conceptual diagram of bioacoustics iden-
card, and it also tracks employee movement rics to recognize and authenticate someone ogy comes out of Project Soli, an early
tity authentication from Electronics and
throughout an office. Card beacon technol- also has an added layer of security in that hand-tracking technology developed by
Telecommunications Research Institute’s
Joo Yong Sim. ogy can also be used to automatically rec- it requires that they are living, since these Google’s Advanced Technology and Projects
ognize when an employee has left their desk systems look for both structure and move- group, which also developed the Project
and activate a computer’s screensaver, or ment. But for those who are concerned that Jacquard connected clothing system found
to automatically customize meeting room one bio-identifier isn’t secure enough, sci- in Levi’s Commuter Trucker jackets. (In early
temperatures. Tracking systems, combined entists at the National Taiwan University of 2019 Google won approval from the Federal
with other A.I. systems, can assign people Science and Technology developed a kind of Communications Commission to run its

When There’s Truly Nowhere

to Hide
Project Soli hand-tracking technology on composition of their photographs in real
commercial aircraft.) NUIs will soon allow time. Photos are taken in a stack, and then
us to control many devices with our body rendered with multiple views. This would MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
movement alone. We’ll also start to see allow photographers to change perspective
All of the cameras and sensors seem futuristic and fantastic at
applications in the workplace that record and the relative size of objects within a pho-
the beginning, promising to optimize your diets and keep in-
our body movement to predict when we’ll be to after it has been taken. Other use cases
truders at bay. We spend a decade acquiring new technologies
most productive. It could also help security of computational photography include
that make our lives a little more easy and convenient, and so we
systems and teams learn when we might seamlessly removing or adding objects to
cause harm to others. scenes, changing shadows, reflections, silence those nagging voices asking us what we’re giving up in ex-
and other atmospheric touches. Mean- change for all those new features. Eventually, we realize that while
Object Recognition in while, MIT’s CSAIL and Google developed a we weren’t paying attention, our homes were turned into ventures
Computational Photography technique that now automatically retouches for marketing, which is now constant and intrusive. We see cus-
and enhances the photos we take with our tom video advertisements everywhere there’s a screen: the smart
Computational photography is the con-
mobile phones. mirrors in your bathroom and closets, the retractable screens
vergence of computer vision, computer
we carry in our pockets, even the smart window panes we had to
graphics, the internet and photography.
Rather than relying on optical processes
Biometric Camouflage install in our houses to block out extreme solar heat. There is no-
alone, it uses digital capturing and pro- New compounds are being developed to where to hide anymore, because some entity is always watching,
cessing techniques to reflect and enhance help people fool recognition algorithms and, always listening, always there. We’re uncomfortable in our own
the visual effects and phenomena of real somewhat paradoxically, help them be seen homes, the one place we used to feel most safe and relaxed.
life in photographic form. Everyone with more clearly. U.S.-based Road Wise devel-
a smartphone now has access to compu- oped Safety Skin, a reflective lotion that
tational photography tools. In its iPhones, makes your skin incredibly reflective. This is
Apple uses computational photography a solution for people who like to run or bike
to achieve a shallow depth of field, while at night—the compound helps motorists see
Facebook corrects any 360-degree photos them more easily. But the compound, which
you upload. Research from Nvidia and the includes glass microspheres and plant-
University of California-Santa Barbara has based emollients, also confuses recognition
revealed a computational zoom technique, algorithms, effectively acting as digital
which allows photographers to change the camouflage for those who don’t want to be
73
Recognition cont.
Roughly 6 in 10 Americans believe it is not seen. Meanwhile, Japanese company Real-f

has developed super-realistic face masks
use new systems that review your online
behavior, emails, and conversations you
possible to go through daily life without made of plastic resin around 1 millimeter have by phone and in person, to assess your
thick. It takes two weeks to complete a personality in real time. The goal: to predict
having their data collected. mask and at the moment, the company is your specific needs and desires. Electroni-
only able to produce 100 a year. Masks can cArts is working on a system that assesses
Percentage of U.S. adults who say...
be made to look exactly like you to other the personality of its multiplayer video
humans while simultaneously confusing game users to do a better job of matching
A.I. systems. Artist Jing-Cai Liu invented a players, using their play style, conversa-
wearable face projector that beams differ- tional style and willingness to spend money
01% No answer
ent images onto your face, subtly changing as criteria. In the real world, insurance
36% It is possible your appearance just enough to confuse the underwriters are attempting to assess your
63% It is not possible to go through machines. personality—via your magazine and website
daily life without the government subscriptions, the photos you post to social
collecting data about them Personality Recognition media, and more—in order to determine how
risky an investment you are. Some lenders
Numerous academic studies have used
have used personality algorithms to predict
Twitter and Facebook as sandboxes for
your future financial transactions. In the
computational personality recognition
field of human resources, hiring managers
experiments. What they’re hoping to
are using personality recognition systems to
understand: Given a set of data, can an A.I.
decide whether you’ll be a good cultural fit
system predict how you’re likely to react in
38% It is possible just about any situation? This was also a
for their organization.
62% It is not possible to go through daily question posed by the now infamous pre-
life without companies collecting dictive analytics firm Cambridge Analytica, Accent Recognition
data about them
which in 2018 used automated personality The problem with voice recognition is that
recognition and targeting to help Donald we tend not to speak using standard, per-
Trump win the election. Political candi- fect language. Depending on where you’re
dates, law firms, marketers, customer from in the U.S., the brown, fizzy, caffeinat-
Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted June 3-17, 2019 service reps and others are beginning to ed beverage you drink from a can might be

called soda, soda pop, pop, or “Coke,” even vise the wearer in real time how to interact fitness trackers) with machine learning even if they’ve never sent in a sample to
if what you’re drinking is a Dr. Pepper. And if more effectively with others. algorithms that respond to our emotions, 23andMe, Color, AncestryDNA or any of
a common word is used, it might not sound but biological data from other sources can the other testing services now available.
the same. “Caramel” is pronounced “car-ml” Responsive Recognition be useful, too: our skin, our faces, and our That’s because raw biometric data can be
in Colorado and “carra-mel” in Maine. His- Technology DNA. Analysts speculate that affective com- uploaded to open-source databases like
torically, voice recognition systems haven’t puting could become a $25 billion industry GEDmatch, which allows users to look for
Alexa is about to sound a lot more human.
done well with accents or dialects, but that’s by 2023. relatives across all of the other DNA plat-
In 2019, Amazon announced some upgrades
finally starting to change. Tmall Genie, Alib- forms, and because of the pervasiveness
to the famed digital assistant, giving her
aba’s digital assistant, is now being trained
emotions like excitement and disappoint-
Genetic Recognition of other websites (Facebook, government
to recognize some of China’s many regional databases) that forensic researchers use to
ment. For the time being, Alexa will respond Late in 2019, popular U.K. grocery store
dialects. Amazon’s Alexa is similarly being search across many different data points.
in a low, disappointed tone when you answer chain Waitrose partnered with the DNA
trained to recognize accents and dialects as
a question incorrectly, but she’ll perk up discovery platform DnaNudge. Inside stores 23andMe’s enormous bank of human genetic
well as ethnic origin.
and sound excited if you win a game, for was a popup service offering shoppers ge- data is now one of the largest in the world—
example. Soon, Alexa’s more humanlike netic testing and an app that, based on their and certainly one of the most valuable.
Emotional Recognition expression will be responsive. If you sound DNA profile, would “nudge” them to make Nearly 10 million people have now paid the
Alexa doesn’t just know who you are—she sad, she’ll empathize. If you’re stoked about healthier choices. The genetic recognition company to sequence their DNA, and 80%
now knows how you’re feeling. In 2018, a great day at work, she’ll match your level of technology from DnaNudge required only have consented to have their DNA used for
Amazon filed a patent for a new system that happiness. a fast cheek swab. Customers could then drug research. In 2018, 23andMe received
detects the physical and emotional well- use the DnaNudge app in Waitrose stores to $300 million to share its data with pharma-
being of users based on their previous and Affective Computing scan barcodes and assess whether or not ceutical company GlaxoSmithKline, and last
current interactions. In 2019, it announced foods matched their genetic profile. year 23andMe developed and sold a drug to
Affective computing is an interdisciplinary Spanish pharmaceutical company Almirall
that its Rekognition suite (used by outside The popularity of consumer DNA testing
field spanning computer science, psychol- designed to treat inflammatory diseases
businesses and organizations) is capable may help people learn more about their
ogy, neurobiology and cognitive science. such as psoriasis.
of seeing fear in our faces, while Alexa can ancestry, but it’s also making it easier to
It encompasses the emotion recognition
sense and understand frustration. It’s also recognize people without their express
research being conducted in A.I. but isn’t
working on a voice-activated wearable that permission or knowledge. It is now possible Universal Genetic Databases
one and the same. Researchers at MIT are
can help decode how others are feeling. to find and recognize about 60% of people
using electrodermal activity collected from The proliferation of consumer DNA testing
A real-world use case for the technology: in the U.S. who are of European descent,
our wearable computers (smart watches, services represents significant untapped
Paired with smart earbuds, Alexa could ad-
75
Recognition cont.
opportunity in myriad industries and fields, Persistent Workplace

including insurance, pharmaceuticals and and School Surveillance
law enforcement. As a result, there is a
In the U.S. and many other countries,
new effort underway to collect and struc-
schools and employers have the legal right
ture all of this data so that it is more easily
to monitor people, and they don’t always
accessed. A team of researchers from
have to disclose what is being tracked. For
Vanderbilt University say that developing
years, China has deployed cameras and
a universal database with standardized
other technology in classrooms to moni-
genetic profiles for every person living in
tor students’ attentiveness. In New York,
or visiting a given country would allow law
the Lockport City School District began
enforcement to find people who’ve com-
piloting its Aegis facial and object recog-
mitted serious crimes. GEDmatch, the
nition system built by Canadian company
open-source genetic database that helps
SN Technologies. Meanwhile, Microsoft
compare and match DNA data files from
mines chat, email, calendar and meeting
different testing companies, was used to
data to measure worker productivity within
help find the Golden State Killer in 2018. It
Microsoft itself. Sales team members were
subsequently sparked renewed interest in
given personalized dashboards visualizing
developing universal genetic databases for
how they spend their time, and the system
government use. Of course, there are lots of
made recommendations for how to optimize
ethical concerns. Under what circumstanc-
their workflows. Bunch.ai monitors Slack
es should third parties be able to pull and
channels to help managers understand their
The DnaNudge wristband shows your genetic predispositions and risk levels (red, yellow, use genetic data housed in private databas-
and green) corresponding to products you scan when shopping at the grocery store. team dynamics and chemistry. Teramind
es? What jurisdiction should law enforce-
offers monitoring software that captures
ment have over our genetic data, even if we
real-time keystrokes, records video of their
haven’t committed a crime? The govern-
activity and will send an alert to managers
ments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UK and
if an employee attempts to print a sensitive
China have all been researching whether to
document. Humanyze uses Bluetooth-en-
create universal databases populated with
abled badges to track a worker throughout
the genetic information of their citizens.

SCENARIO • ELENA GIRALT
Humanitarian Surveillance
the day and then correlates that information

with other data points drawn from email in
order to find opportunities for collaboration NEAR-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
within teams.
The year is 2023, multiple hurricanes have devastated coastline
communities in the southeastern part of the United States. As
Food Recognition Systems part of emergency response and recovery efforts, FEMA is giving
Several years ago, Amazon updated its every affected citizen $500 and a box of foodstuffs and basic
mobile app to allow people to shop for re- necessities. These resources will be distributed at massive Ama-
al-world objects by scanning their barcodes. zon fulfillment centers because those facilities have the physical
Its latest iteration lets users take and
space and technological infrastructure to support the facial-rec-
upload a photo. Now you only need to wave
ognition verification process. Citizens line up, scan their faces
your smartphone near a given object to get
and present government documents to collect their emergency
more information on it, or have the option
packages. To get an additional $25 in aid, individuals have the
to directly add it to your shopping cart. For
example, German lighting manufacturer option to give Amazon full rights to use their faceprints in future
Osram built a tiny chip that can scan a bar of research and analytics projects. For a 10% discount on their next
chocolate to determine how much cacao it order, individuals can opt to credit the money directly to their
contains. At the 2020 Consumer Electron- Amazon account. The average processing time for an individual
ics Show, Samsung and LG both unveiled to pass the verification process and receive aid is 90 minutes.
refrigerators with recognition systems that Citizens are welcome to opt-out of the Face-AID program. Should
can recognize food. The refrigerators will they opt-out, the average time to receive aid is 90 days. This is the
scan what’s inside, let you know what you’re first time FEMA has deployed this technology in the United States,
out of, and suggest recipes to make the best however these Face-AID systems are standard for USAID opera-
use of your available groceries.
tions around the world in places such as Syria, Haiti, Venezuela
and Iran. This Faceprint database, similar to fingerprint databas-
es, is shared with law enforcement agencies to improve security
systems and counter-terrorism efforts.
77
04 Emerging Digital Interfaces
81 Mixed Reality
82 Virtual Reality
82 Augmented Reality
83 Holograms
83 360-degree Video
79
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Emerging Digital Interfaces
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH

There are scores of new devices on the Every aspect of our perceived reality is
horizon that are designed to alter and increasingly shaped by devices, platforms,
enhance the way we interact both with the and content that intervene between our
world around us, and with entirely new dig- senses and the “real-life” physical world. The
ital worlds. These interfaces give us access makers of our digital interfaces will have
to new experiences, extending our sensory immeasurable influence on our psyches and
abilities and overlaying our experiences behaviors.
with layers of illuminating data.
THE IMPACT
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW Consumer market analyst IDC determined
From augmented reality workplace training that total spending on augmented and
to holographically enhanced surgeries, virtual reality spending will continue to
the future of digital interfaces will impact grow, hitting $18.8 billion in 2020, and that
virtually every aspect of our lives. Most of us the total market size could balloon to $200
today think of digital interfaces as portals to billion by 2024.
alternate or artificial versions of reality. But
Informational overlays are an AR functionality that can unlock efficiencies in warehouses over time, these digital realities will begin WATCHLIST
and on factory floors. to play a more constant and primary role in Amazon, Apple, Base Hologram Produc-
our lives. The interfaces we use to access tions, Crypton Future Media, EchoPixel,
them will no longer simply be occasionally Eyellusion, Facebook, Facebook 360,
helpful tools or temporary forms of diver- Garmin, GoPro, Hologram USA, Insta360,
sion—they will arguably become our means Kodak, Magic Leap, Microsoft HoloLens,
of existence. Oculus, OpenSight, Pulse Evolution, Ricoh,
Samsung, Vimeo 360, Xiaomi, YouTube.

 TRENDS calibrated to the unique shape and move-
ment of a user’s eye. Eye tracking enables
Mixed Reality applications to track where the user is
looking in real time. For example, following
Mixed reality (MR), also referred to as ex-
a user’s gaze helps the system understand
tended reality (XR), combines the physical
intent. Combined with a voice command,
and digital realms and encompasses a num-
a user can look at a desk and say “put this
ber of technologies—including augmented
here” without having to specifically name
reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), 360-degree
or describe the desk. There are implicit use
video, and holograms. Each of these tech-
cases, too: If someone is reading a screen
nologies requires an interface of some kind:
with a lot of text, the page can automatically
touch or gesture-based, voice-controlled,
scroll to keep pace with her eyes. As mixed
an eye tracking system, or a combination
reality developers aim to reproduce the
of various bio-inputs. Nearly every industry
nuances of human vision, including depth-
can use these technologies, whether it’s
of-field, this eye-tracking technology could
teaching anatomy to medical students and
also prove quite useful in establishing the
training remote employees in technical
user’s point of focus. The Food and Drug
skills, to experiencing virtual prototypes
Administration has approved multiple sur- Augmented reality can be used to create shared, interactive digital renderings with cre-
of cars and attending virtual concerts of
gical planning apps for Microsoft’s Hololens ative applications in real estate, architecture, and design.
artists (Tupac, Elvis) who are long dead.
mixed reality headset. Florida-based Magic
A prominent device in the mixed reality Leap is expanding its developer program
space, Microsoft’s Hololens 2 relies on for the Magic Leap One MR headset, which
eyelined-based user interactions. At the will mean new consumer applications and
beginning of each use, the headset is games in the coming year.
81
Emerging Digital Interfaces cont.
Virtual Reality Augmented Reality

Virtual Reality (VR) is an immersive comput- Augmented Reality (AR) doesn’t simulate
er-simulated environment. VR is typically an entirely new environment, but rather
experienced through a Head Mounted overlays digital elements onto your natural
Display, which can create the illusion of field of vision. AR is often experienced with
being physically present in the scenes being a Head Mounted Display or smart eyewear,
viewed. VR headsets are available from with devices in the latter category being
brands including Google, Sony, Samsung, introduced this year from many of tech’s
Facebook’s Oculus, and HTC, and they can most dominant firms. (See also: The Decade
also be constructed by slipping a mobile of Connected Eyewear) Following a $480
phone into a special mask. million contract with the U.S. military, Mi-
crosoft is developing the Integrated Visual
“Standing” VR is viewed from a relatively
Augmentation System (IVAS), a custom
stationary perspective and differs from
device based on the company’s Hololens 2
“room scale” VR, which allows the viewer to
mixed reality product. This one is for sol-
walk more freely in a physical space, with
diers to use in training and in combat.
their digital environment reflecting their
real-life movements. VR arcades are pop- AR has incredible valuable market poten-
ping up across the globe, offering teens who tial, with applications across the military,
BASE Hologram launched a 2018 world tour featuring music icons Roy Orbison and Buddy can’t afford to buy their own headsets the healthcare, engineering, and entertainment
Holly. chance to experience computer-generated industries, to name a few. Be on the lookout
Photo: BASE Hologram worlds for a couple hours. The VR market- for significant investment in the space, due
place is now well established, but not quite to growing demand for its practical applica-
mature enough for widespread adoption. tions. We expect AR's adoption and value to
The drivers of further popularization will eclipse VR over the next few years, espe-
be gradual refinement of the tech, lower cially as smart eyewear grows in popularity
costs for consumer products, and greater among consumers for everyday use.
richness and variety of content.

Holograms Los Angeles. The German Circus Roncalli fuel demand. Expect to hear more about the total immersion you’d find in advanced
created digital stand-ins to avoid the costly holograms, however, as engineers improve forms of virtual reality. Online platforms
Holograms are light field recordings that,
and controversial use of live animals, and resolution, volumetrics, and depth of field, like YouTube, Facebook, and Vimeo, as
when reproduced, can appear as static or
the Coachella music festival featured the and as 5G enables the high-bandwidth well as major television networks including
dynamic three-dimensional visuals. The
computer-generated Japanese holographic instantaneous data transfer speeds needed ABC, Fox, and CNN use 360-degree video in
term is also more generally applied to any
act Hatsune Miku. for lifelike holographic streaming. To evolve social media content, entertainment, news,
image that is rendered to appear in 3D. We
In the medical field, such 3D mapping could beyond virtual and augmented reality, it and sports. User-generated 360-degree
see potential applications by companies
provide doctors with a 360-degree view of will be critical to create dynamic 3D forms, footage has also flourished, due to portable
in entertainment, medical, advertising
a patient’s internal organs, vessels, bones, which includes accurate digital reproduc- 360-degree cameras from GoPro, Insta360,
and telecommunications. Looking further
and tissue and could assist with diagnostics tion of faces, bodies, and other complex Ricoh and Xiaomi. Garmin also recently
ahead, perfecting hologram technology
and surgeries. The technology also paves structures. Holograms and hologram-relat- introduced a 360-degree dash cam for more
represents a critical step in the future of
the way for “holoporting” when it comes to ed technology will play an increasingly sig- practical applications.
mixed reality technology, giving depth and
both personal and professional telecom- nificant role in our everyday lives, especially The future of 360-degree video is likely
detail to volumetric forms and achieving a
munications. Facilitated through the use as smart eyewear begins to replace the as a rudimentary version of VR. Because
convincing sense of realism.
of a head-mounted display, holoporting smartphone as our primary personal device. 360-degree content can be created with
In the past few years, hologram technology
would let people communicate in person via relatively inexpensive and user-friendly
has been used to create virtual concert 360-degree Video
holographs—your friend’s likeness would be hardware, can be shared easily on popu-
performances, using the likenesses of by-
projected in dynamic physical form in your 360-degree video is created with a special lar platforms, and can be consumed on a
gone artists. With many of music’s highest
physical office space. Think of it like a full- camera rig designed to capture omnidirec- variety of standard devices, it will probably
grossing touring acts nearing the end of
body 3D video chat where the person you’re tional footage. Once the video is rendered, persevere as a significant, if somewhat
their careers and lives, and with encour-
speaking to can appear to interact with viewers can rotate their point of view using niche, format for the foreseeable future.
aging sales data from recent tours featur-
objects in your environment. As it evolves, a mouse, touchscreen, or motion-control With camera companies regularly improv-
ing holograms of stars like Roy Orbison
this technology will likely revolutionize web- gesture to explore the recorded scene. The ing functionality and lowering prices, we
(produced by Base Hologram) and Frank
based social interaction, as well as remote format offers a more immersive and active can expect an improvement in the caliber
Zappa (produced by Eyellusion), holographic
workplace training and collaboration. viewing experience than traditional video of 360-degree video in the coming years,
tech looks poised to unlock a new corner of
Though scalable in certain event contexts, for entertainment, documentary, and news, which may coincide with the emergence
the events market. Elsewhere in entertain-
affordable consumer hologram hardware and it can be viewed through standard me- of more sophisticated genres of content.
ment, rapper Chief Keef used holograms to
isn't available. The functionality, too, is not diums like laptops and mobile devices. It is a Ultimately, however, the format may be
perform live in Illinois from a soundstage in
yet advanced and accessible enough to relatively simple and low-cost alternative to eclipsed by more advanced forms of VR.
83
SCENARIOS • MARC PALATUCCI
Virtual Human Touch Redefining Our We Abandon Our

Brings Intimacy Relationships and Physical Bodies
Personal Identity
MID-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO MID-FUTURE NEUTRAL SCENARIO MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
As digital interfaces become less indistin- The distinction between online and offline We spend years bracing for the mental health
guishable from the real world—with audiovisual relationships blurs as more people adopt online impact of digital and internet addictions but
elements indistinguishable from their real-world personas that correspond to their real-life failed to fully see the danger they posed to our
counterparts—developers focus their efforts on selves. Eventually, people experiment more physical health. Virtual interfaces and content
a new sensorial challenge: recreating our sense freely with various identities, creating expo- grow more and more powerfully habit-forming.
of touch. With a combination of haptic tech- nentially more connections between a person’s They become the primary medium for daily life,
nology and soft robotics, technology convinc- manifestations, whether it’s physical, digital or whether it’s work, communication or entertain-
ingly emulates the mutual sensations of touch a combination of both. Complex social spheres ment. We spend more time in the 3-D virtual
between humans. It provides simple but signif- take on even more dimensions with advanced world, neglecting fitness, diet and sleep. Mixed
icant interactions, whether it’s handshakes or mixed reality and holograms, as well as the rise reality attempts to recreate some of these
hugs that are given—and felt—between multiple of synthetic media. We begin, en masse, to view activities on a superficial level—immersive VR
remote parties through mixed reality interfaces. the world around us primarily through a digital experiences that give you the bodily reactions
This remote physical interaction serves as a medium and see the dawn of a limitless frag- of rest or exercise, for example—but it’s a false
welcome antidote to the isolating and intangible mentation of identity. A person can now feasi- substitute. Our bodies get weaker without the
aspects of the early internet, and it marks a new bly choose a new persona every morning, use real thing. Cases of severe exhaustion, mal-
era of more realistic digitally-generated envi- an algorithm to generate an entirely artificial nourishment, weakened immune systems, and
ronments. Starting with applications in physical character to socialize digitally on their behalf. premature death climb dramatically. Society
therapy, medical diagnostics, enhanced tele- They can alter their image while maintaining hits a crisis point, because our digitally-induced
commuting and social companionship, the tech- their personality and behaviors, or vice versa. disregard for our physical bodies poses an exis-
nology represents a monumental step toward And, presented through near-flawlessly lifelike tential risk for the human species.
merging our physical and digital realities. digital interfaces, every one of these identities
could be experienced as genuinely real. This
makes us view identity as a far more pliable and
transient construct than in past generations,
and it redefines what an authentic and mean-
ingful relationship means.

85
05 Synthetic
Media &
Content
91 Synthetic Media Technologies
91 Speech Synthesis
91 Modulating Custom Voices
91 Deep Behaviors and
Predictive Machine Vision
92 Marketplace Consolidation
92 Generative Algorithms for
Voice, Sound and Video
92 Mapped Synthetic
Environments
94 Synthetic Media
and Society
94 Synth-pop Makes
a Comeback
94 Simulating Human
Experiences
95 Synthetic Voice Fraud
95 Synthetic Sex Tapes
95 Synthetic Property Rights
and Legal Protections
95 Using Synthetic Media to
get around Copyright Laws
95 Synthetic Media
Marketplaces
96 Truth Decay in an Era
of Synthetic Media
87
1ST YEAR ON THE LIST
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Synthetic Media and Content
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT or acting as a stand-in for live action mov-

ies. Synthetic media can automate dubbing
There are different categories of deep-
in foreign languages on video chats and
fakes, which include malicious, non-ma-
fill in the banks when video call frames are
licious and benign. Last year’s malicious
dropped because of low bandwidth issues.
deepfakes included Jon Snow’s public
Imagine an entirely new genre of soap op-
apology for the ending of Game of Thrones
era, where AI systems learn from your digital
and Barack Obama calling Donald Trump
behavior, biometrics and personal data and
a “complete dipshit.” We also watched
use details from your personal life for the
Rasputin offering a convincing rendition of
storylines of synthetic characters. In an
Beyoncé’s Halo. That latter, non-malicious
ultimate expression of a “reality show,” syn-
category is better known as synthetic me-
thetic characters would play to an audience
dia, and you’re about to see a lot of it.
of exactly one: you.
WHY IT MATTERS
Synthetic media is created using artificial
Synthetic media will spark new business
intelligence. Algorithms use an initial set
opportunities and risks in 2020.
of data to learn—people, voices, photos,
Synthetic media stars Lil Miquela, Blawko and Bermuda in a Christmas post on Instagram. objects, motions, videos, text and other
types of media. The end result is realis-  DEEPER DIVE
tic-looking and sounding artificial digital Synthetic Media in Pop Culture
content. Voice clones, voice skins, unique
You’ve probably already encountered syn-
gestures, photos and interactive bots are
thetic media, such as virtual Japanese pop
all part of the ecosystem. Synthetic media
star Hatsune Miku (she debuted in 2007) or
can be used for practical reasons, such as
the British virtual band Gorillaz, a project by
generating characters in animated movies

artist Jamie Hewlett and musician Damon machine learning to discover patterns. Over tive adversarial networks, a type of machine humans manually manipulated the video
Albarn that released its first track in 1998. time, the system parses all of those patterns learning in A.I.) using traditional video editing software. The
What’s next is algorithmically-created or down to shared features. Then, a decoder is Zuckerberg video, however, was created
modified media. taught to compose new content using the Deepfakes vs Deeply Edited using an algorithm trained on a real-world
Eugenia Kuyda cofounded the synthetic shared features. If you’ve ever used the face In May 2019, footage of U.S. Democratic videos of him talking. The distinction is im-
content company Replika after her best swap filter on Snap, the system is identify- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went viral. In portant, because not all synthetic content is
friend was killed in a car accident. She built ing the faces, using encoders to find fea- the video, she was slurring her words and, necessarily fake news—and not all fake news
a database of old text messages to preserve tures, then reconstructing those features it appeared to many viewers that she was is necessarily synthetic content.
his memory and then trained a chatbot on the opposite face using decoders. What’s either drunk or unwell. Soon, journalists
tricky—and remarkable, considering we use debunked the footage, and many news A Business Case for Synthetic Media
to mimic his personality and speaking
style. Anyone who wants to build a replica Snap on our phones—is that the system has organizations worldwide referred to it as a Synthetic media isn’t just about goofing
of themselves for others to interact with to perform and repeat this process on every “deepfake video.” Many people demanded around to make entertaining videos. There
can use Replika. Another synthetic media frame without lag. that the video be removed from Facebook are serious business cases to invest in the
example: Google’s Duplex assistant, which More recently, synthetic media has been and Instagram, where it was being shared synthetic media ecosystem:
can make calls on a user’s behalf to book developed using generative adversarial widely. After the platform took no action,
• Cost savings and scheduling
appointments or order products. Its initial images (see also: A.I. section). ThisPer- a video of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg
Synthesizing voices could cut down on the
launch provoked questions and concern over sonDoesNotExist.com is a website that will giving a sinister speech was uploaded to
time needed for busy voice actors. If you
whether it would (or needed to) let call recip- produce an infinite number of synthetic Instagram. In it, Zuckerberg appeared to
have Awkwafina voicing a character in your
ients know the system was an A.I. agent. people who look perfectly… human. (A say, "Imagine this for a second: One man,
animated film, you could capture a sample
similar site, ThisCatDoesNotExist.com, was with total control of billions of people's
of her voice and then program a system to
How it’s Made less successful in producing images of syn- stolen data, all their secrets, their lives,
generate her lines.
thetic cats.) There are pages dedicated to their futures… whoever controls the data,
Synthetic media requires a considerable • Custom regional accents
algorithmically-generated scenes from the controls the future." The Pelosi video
amount of data: photos, videos, audio Advertisers could generate hundreds (or
TV shows “Friends” and “The Office.” These was edited skillfully—but it is not really
recordings. That corpus is run through an even thousands) of synthetic characters
were accomplished using GANs (or genera- an example of synthetic content because
A.I. algorithm called an encoder, which uses to appeal to narrow demographic bases.
89
Synthetic Media and Content cont.
Rather than selecting one human actor to Legal and Intellectual Property WATCHLIST FOR SECTION
extol the virtues of a particular toothpaste, Challenges Adobe, Alibaba, Alipay, Amazon, Amazon’s
different synthetic characters could speak
We’re just entering a new, and very com- Scout delivery robot, Apple, ASVspoof Chal-
directly to Southern California trendset-
plicated, field of intellectual property law. lenge, Baidu, Bermuda, Blawko, D-ID, Face-
ters, stay-at-home-dads living in Chicago,
For example, if a synthetic version of your book, Google’s Duplex, Gorillaz, Instagram,
and aspirational Gen Z-ers who are just
likeness is created but borrows only some Lil Miquela, Lyrebird, MagicLeap, Magi-
entering college.
features, who owns the final product? cLeap’s Mica, MIT's Computer Science and
• Reaching people in their own languages Can you sue someone for making a digi- Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Nvidia,
In 2019, a campaign produced by A.I. video tal caricature with infinite modification Pindrop, Playhouse, R/GA London, Reddit,
synthesis company Synthesia and advertis- possibilities? Who gets to earn money Replika, Russia’s Main Intelligence Director-
ing agency R/GA London created synthetic from that creation? What about synthetic ate (GRU), Samsung AI Center, Samsung’s
versions of David Beckham for a public characters—who owns the right to program, Technology and Advanced Research Labs
service announcement about malaria. control and decommission them? (STAR Labs), Samsung’s Neon, Skolkovo
The short film shows Beckham talking Institute of Science and Technology, Snap,
This leads to thorny questions about our
about how to fight malaria in nine different SoundCloud, Spotify, Synthesia, Talespin,
legal rights to all of the characteristics that
languages. (His face moved correctly, but Tencent, TikTok, TwentyBN, University of
make us who we are. Should a corporation
the voices weren’t matched to his—though California-Berkeley, University of Washing-
own pieces of our human identity? What
emulating voices is also possible.) ton, Vimeo, Voicery, Xinhua, YouTube.
about a government? What happens if laws
• Archiving ourselves are changed to enable us to monetize our
Advancements in synthetic media will faces, voices and expressions?
Synthetic media star Lil Miquela. let us preserve ourselves throughout
Photo: Omar Pineiro our lifetimes. Imagine being able to ask THE IMPACT
questions to a 5-year-old version of you There will be new public debates about the
or listen to your mother read to you long emerging legal and IP landscape as synthet-
after she’s passed. ic media gains popularity in 2020. Some
will argue that synthetic media should have
their own digital rights, permissions and
governing structures online—just like we
humans do.

SYNTHETIC MEDIA AND CONTENT
Synthetic Media Technologies
 TRENDS in public repositories (YouTube, Vimeo,

SoundCloud) or samples uploaded by the
Speech Synthesis user. The A.I. learns over time to recognize
not only intonation, but also emotional ca-
Also known as “synthetic speech” or “text-
dences. This technology can be fun to play
to-speech technology,” speech synthesis
with. You can fake a conversation between
mimics real human voices and deploys them
yourself and your favorite celebrity, provid-
to various interfaces. With enough data and
ed there are enough publicly-available audio
training, a speech synthesis system can
files of that celebrity to build a dataset.
learn the spectral frequency of anyone’s
Soon, the technology will be able to match
voice and produce someone’s digital voice-
and rapidly deploy synthetic voices person-
print. One company, Synthesia, uses this
alized for each individual consumer. Y Com-
technology to dub people through automat-
binator-backed Voicery creates bespoke
ed facial re-animation. This will be especial-
voices for brands. If you loved Daria as a kid,
ly useful for movies with wide, international
you might hear Daria Morgendorffer’s voice
releases. Actors’ facial expressions and
(or Jane Lane’s) during a car commercial,
mouths can be reformatted to ensure local
while your spouse might instead hear Phil
languages are synchronized correctly.
and Lil’s mom from Rugrats. We should re-
member that in this era of misinformation,
Modulating Custom Voices synthetic voices might also be used to trick
Generative algorithms are creating synthet- unwitting consumers.
ic voices that sound just like the original,
and those voices can be modulated to Deep Behaviors and Predictive
the exact pitch and tone desired. Montre- Machine Vision
al-based A.I. startup Lyrebird built a voice
Researchers at MIT's Computer Science and
imitation algorithm capable of generating
Artificial Intelligence Laboratory trained
fake speech that sounds indistinguishable
computers to not only recognize what’s in
At MIT’s annual EmTech conference, MIT Technology Review editor-in-chief Gideon Lichfield from the real thing. It uses a database of
a video, but to predict what humans will do
interviewed a synthetic version Vladimir Putin using real-time adaptive deepfake technology. voice samples that are either available
next. Trained on YouTube videos and TV
91
Synthetic Media Technologies cont.
shows such as “The Office” and “Desperate predict what sound is generated when a
Housewives,” a computer system can now wooden drumstick taps a couch, a pile of
predict whether two people are likely to hug, leaves or a glass windowpane. The focus of
kiss, shake hands or slap a high five. This this research is to help systems understand
research will someday enable robots to more how objects interact with each other in
easily navigate human environments—and to the physical realm. That work led to more
interact with humans by taking cues from our sophisticated spoofing: In 2017, researchers
body language. It could also be used in retail at the University of Washington developed
environments, while we’re operating machin- a model that convincingly showed former
ery or while we’re in classrooms learning. President Barack Obama giving a speech—
one that he never actually gave in real life. In
Generative Algorithms for Voice, 2018, a Belgian political party, Socialistische
Sound and Video Partij Anders, or sp.a for short, published re-
alistic videos of Donald Trump all over social
Researchers at chipmaker Nvidia deployed
media in which he offered advice on climate
a new generative algorithm in 2018 that
change: “As you know, I had the balls to
A still from a deepfake video in which Bill Hader slowly transforms into created realistic human faces using a GAN
withdraw from the Paris climate agreement,”
Arnold Schwarzenegger. (generative adversarial network.) In their
he said, looking directly into the camera,
Image courtesy of ctrl shift face and YouTube. system, the algorithm could also tweak var-
“and so should you.” This trend is likely to
ious elements, like age and freckle density.
become more problematic as non-malicious
A team at University of California-Berkeley
deepfakes are used more widely in enter-
created software that can transfer the
tainment, gaming and news media.
movements of one person in a video to
someone in another video automatically. For
some time, we’ve been training computers
Mapped Synthetic Environments
to watch videos and predict corresponding Companies are now mapping the real world
sounds in our physical world. For example, to generate synthetic digital twins. Amazon
researchers at MIT’s CSAIL experimented to has been studying Snohomish County in
learn whether a computer could accurately Washington, building realistic simulations

The Rolling Stones are Dead—

But They’re Making New Music
of the region’s roads, buildings and traffic.
Its maps are reported to be accurate down
to the centimeter, precisely tracking subtle MID-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
gradients in pavement and noting unique
The original members of the Rolling Stones die, but thanks to repli-
markings on sidewalks. Amazon fused maps
cating algorithms, they still make new music. That sensation you felt
and 3D data to build synthetic versions of
after hearing the opening 30 seconds of “Paint It Black” for the first
the county to test delivery drones. These
kinds of virtual environments will be nec- time—the melancholy guitar melody, followed by eight loud bangs
essary as the company moves drones from on the drum and a repetitive hook that culminates in Mick Jagger
research labs into the mainstream. In 2019, singing “I see a red door and I want it painted black...”—was a singu-
Amazon tested its Scout delivery robot in lar moment of excitement and satisfaction. It didn’t seem possible
the real world, having trained it in the syn- you might get to feel that way again with a new Stones song, and yet
thetic environment. their latest track, which was created entirely by an A.I. trained to
emulate their sound, is just as loud, hard and fulfilling.
93
SYNTHETIC MEDIA AND CONTENT
Synthetic Media and Society
Synth-Pop Makes a Comeback drink alcohol or use drugs, would never say
anything off-message, and their mug shots
Synthetic media will give rise to an entirely
would never go viral on the internet. (Unless
new kind of celebrity in the 21st century:
it was planned, of course. Over the summer,
synthetic pop stars. It also affords a host
Bermuda posted her own mugshot on Insta-
of opportunities to make and save money.
gram to “get ahead” of the press.)
Already there are a number of synthetic pop
stars with very large fan bases. Lil Miquela While Bermuda and Blawko aren’t program-
is a sort of Beyonce of synthetic stars, with mable yet, China’s A.I. news anchors are.
1.8 million followers on Instagram as of the Last year, China's state news agency Xinhua
start of this year. She is a model for brands unveiled A.I. news anchors Xin Xiaomeng,
like Prada and Calvin Klein, a musician with Qui Hao, and Xin Xiaohao, who appear in
popular tracks on Spotify and a paid brand videos and also write stories for the agency.
ambassador for enormous, global compa-
nies like Samsung. And she has friends: Simulating Human Experiences
Bermuda, a rule-breaking bad girl model/in- What if you could interact with a simulat-
fluencer and Blawko, an L.A.-based guy who ed person to learn from them or practice
likes fast cars, Absolut vodka and is never management techniques? Would you invite
Samsung’s Neons are designed to interact with you. without his trademark face scarf covering a synth to a dinner party? Samsung’s Tech-
his nose and mouth. nology and Advanced Research Labs (STAR
In many ways, these stars are the antidote Labs) thinks the answer is yes. It developed
to teen stars like Lindsay Lohan and Shia Neon, “a computationally created virtual be-
LeBeouf who, for one reason or another, ing that looks and behaves like a real human,
stray from their carefully-crafted public im- with the ability to show emotions and intelli-
ages and cause headaches for their agents, gence.” Neons aren’t intended as a stand-in
managers and the brands or projects they for the internet. They were built to hang
represent. Synthetic stars don’t sleep. out with you. U.S.-based startup Talespin
They don’t eat. They never get tired, even if built synths in virtual reality to teach people
they’re pushed 24-hours a day. They don’t “soft” management skills, including how to

encourage team members or how to fire Synthetic Sex Tapes happens when synthetic content seems so a slightly altered copy of you for use in pro-
someone with empathy and compassion. real that the psychological implications are motional commercials? For example if your
Natalie Portman, Emma Watson, Taylor
Canadian startup TwentyBN built a synthet- intense and profound? What if someone likeness was edited to include facial hair
Swift and Daisy Ridley—smart, talented
ic sales associate to cheerfully interact with generates synthetic environments that mir- and a pair of glasses you don’t have in real
artists—began “appearing” in adult videos in
customers—and convince them to spend ror real-world situations and real people? No life, and then used without your permission.
late 2018. Convincing short clips were made
more money. existing laws or regulations govern synthet- Would that eliminate the legal requirement
using deepfake techniques and soon went
ic content, although some people suggest for consent? Israeli startup D-ID thinks so.
viral on Reddit. Not too long after, another
Synthetic Voice Fraud Reddit user published a mobile application
adapting current laws, such as those It designed software to scrape video from
covering libel, defamation, identity fraud or security cameras to study emotion recog-
Synthesized media has a known problem allowing anyone to make their own porn
impersonating a government official. nition—without first getting the express
area: It can be used by malicious actors to deepfakes. This poses a particular problem
permission from the people in those videos.
mislead people, to trick voice authentica- for public figures, because right now there
tion systems and to create forged audio isn’t an easy way for the average person to
Using Synthetic Media to Get Using software like this might not be a
Around Copyright Laws technical violation of the GDPR in Europe or
recordings. Voice fraud cost U.S. businesses tell what’s real and what’s fake. Photos and
CCPA in California, but it certainly violates
with call centers $14 billion last year alone, videos can spread through social networks In many countries it is illegal to plagiarize
the spirit of those laws.
according to a study by call center software and online without much protection for someone’s original content. You might
maker Pindrop. Google has been working those victimized. In the absence of digital remember the 1989 pop-rap crossover hit
on a synthetic speech dataset as part of tools to spot fakes, we’re left relying on “Ice Ice Baby” by Vanilla Ice. He sampled
Synthetic Media Marketplaces
the ASVspoof 2019 Challenge, which is critical thinking and common sense. David Bowie and Queen’s collaboration We already got a taste of what our future
an open source, global initiative designed “Under Pressure” (you know the base line synth media marketplaces will look like. In
to help develop countermeasures to fight Synthetic Property Rights and hook: da-da-da—-da-da-da-dum) but didn’t 2018 a subreddit dedicated to publishing
spoofed speech. Researchers hope that the Legal Protections get permission first. He tried to get around deepfakes morphed into a makeshift mar-
challenge will lead to more secure synthetic copyright law saying that he added a beat ketplace. Users were volunteering to create
The video game Call of Duty: Modern
voice content. Voice synthesis startup Lyre- between notes (Ice’s version: da-da-da—- deepfake videos of celebrities, coworkers,
Warfare, was designed with brutal realism.
bird keeps its ethics statement in view on its da-da-da-dum, DA—-da-da-da—-da-da-da- family members, neighbors and enemies in
Players enter lifelike combat situations and
website, and warns that its software “could dum) and made it a distinctly different song. exchange for cryptocurrency. In the near-fu-
must decide whether to shoot synthetic
potentially have dangerous consequences The case settled out of court, but it shined a ture, marketplaces to commission, buy and
civilians. Where do we draw the lines be-
such as misleading diplomats, fraud and light on how U.S. copyright laws were creat- sell synthetic media, as well as their attri-
tween disclosure and pure fantasy? Parody
more generally any other problem caused by ed to protect the financial—not creative—in- butes, will be visible on the dark social web.
for laughs and deepfakes for harm? What
stealing the identity of someone else.” terests of artists. What if someone created
95
Synthetic Media and Society cont.
AMY WEBB
Finding Truth in Virtual Worlds

Synthetic content is still built by humans, but at some point, it will
be completely algorithmically generated. This raises some diffi-
cult questions we ought to be addressing today, including:
Truth Decay in an Era of
Synthetic Media  Who “owns” synthetic content? Who is responsible for it?
In 2020, we expect to see synthetic media
technologies commercialized and made  Would a country’s speech laws govern humans and synthetic
widely available. But without the infrastruc- characters in the same way?
ture in place to help consumers distinguish
between synths and humans, the likelihood  What responsibility would be required to preserve a synthetic
of misinformation campaigns will rise.
character’s actions? Or could they be easily deleted?
Synthetic media could be weaponized by
governments, activist groups and indi-
 If the person who created the synthetic character and all their
viduals and could be treated the same as
content dies, or if the company goes out of business, who
all other internet content, showing up in
search results, on our smart speakers as inherits that character?
audio content, on our connected TVs, in our
inboxes and throughout social media. It is  If an A.I. system starts generating synthetic characters,
possible that ahead of the 2020 elections in and those characters cause harm to others, who is then
the U.S., sacred information channels—pub- responsible?
lic, commercial, and cable news, govern-
ment agencies, even family members—  What disclosures should be required to let people know content
could become compromised. or characters are synthetic?
 How do we define “truth” in an era of synthesized media?

AMY WEBB
Project Hermione:
Towards Cognitive Synthetic Media
Mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing once proposed a thesis  Making educated guesses
and a test: If someday, a computer could answer questions in a manner This is also called “abductive reasoning,” and it’s how most of us get through
indistinguishable from humans, then it must be “thinking.” You’ve likely heard the day. We use the best information available, make and test hypotheses and
of the paper by another name: the Turing Test. It’s been a guiding force in the come up with an answer even if there’s no clear explanation.
development of artificial intelligence ever since.
 Correctly extracting meaning from words, pauses and ambient noise
Tests built on either deception (can a computer fool a human into believing Just because someone says they’re “happy” to take on a new project doesn’t
it’s human?) or replication (can a computer act exactly as we would?) do not mean it literally makes them happy. Other cues, like their body language,
acknowledge A.I. for what it has always been: intelligence gained and expressed might tell us that they’re fairly unhappy with the request but, for whatever
in ways that do not resemble our own human experience. Rather than judging reason, they’re not able to say no.
an A.I. based on whether it can or cannot “think” exactly like we do, the Future
Today Institute proposes a new test to measure the meaningful contributions  Using experience, knowledge and historical context for understanding
of an A.I. It would judge the value of cognitive and behavioral tasks that we When people interact, they bring with them a nuanced worldview, a unique set
could not perform on our own. A system passes the test when it makes general of personal experiences and, typically, their own expectations. Sometimes
contributions that are equal to or better than a human’s. logic and facts won’t win an argument. Other times, they’re all that matter.
Making a valuable contribution in a group is something that most people  Reading the room
have had to do themselves, whether it’s at work, in a religious setting, at There’s the explicit interaction—and the tacit one happening beneath the
the neighborhood pub with friends or in a high school history class. Simply surface. Subtle cues help us figure out when there’s an elephant demanding
interjecting with a factoid or to answer a question doesn’t add real value to a our attention.
conversation. Making a valuable contribution involves many different skills:
Inspired by the Harry Potter character Hermione Granger, who always, and
in every situation, knows just what to say or do, we propose the Hermione
Meaningful Contribution Test. It would be passed when the A.I. can function in
a group of diverse humans representing different cultures, personalities and
power dynamics. For example, when a synthetic media can push back on a small
but growing consensus, tactfully argue for an alternative plan and recruit another
member of the group to support that alternative, it would have made a valuable
contribution. The Hermione Meaningful Contribution Test would be passed.
97
06 Content
100 IRL Geography
Reshapes the
Virtual World
101 The End of
Attention Metrics
102 Digital Frailty
104 Trigger Warnings
106 Abusing the
Notification Layer
107 Cancel Culture
and its Backlash
99
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
IRL Geography Reshapes
STRATEGY NOW
the Virtual World REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight compliant in January. What’s Next Watchlist

In the internet’s first two decades, in- Vermont’s data broker regulation law went CCPA and the other state laws on the horizon European Union, Federal Communications
formation crossed borders freely. Now into effect on January 1, 2019. Washington will impact ad targeting, but watch for major Commission, tech platforms, news and en-
local, state, and national governments are State passed a law strengthening the defini- changes in any business that depends on tertainment media companies and lawmak-
creating a complex patchwork of regulation tion of personally identifiable information in knowing its consumers, like subscription ers around the world.
that assigns internet users (and their data) the state and shortening the window com- marketing. Expect the debate about regula-
different rights in different places. panies have to notify consumers and the tion of the internet (and its consequences) to
state attorney general after a data breach. continue. Bills that were defeated by lobby-
Why It Matters In New York, legislators passed the Stop ists this past session may be back next year.
Anyone producing content—marketers, Hacks and Improve Electronic Data Security
advertising agencies, brands, news organi- Act to increase the types of personal infor- The Impact
zations and entertainment companies—will mation covered by the state’s data breach Without coordinated effort, geographic
need to adapt to a fragmented landscape of reporting law. The New York State Senate differences in rights and expectations will
laws and regulations. also considered the New York Privacy Act, continue to proliferate. This could change
a bill that would give companies a fiduciary the economics and operating model for
Examples responsibility to protect data—and establish firms that serve customers across interna-
a right for New Yorkers to sue for damages if tional borders (or even across state lines in
The California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA)
their data was compromised. the U.S.). Established tech platforms and Local laws now govern how content can be
went into effect in January 2020, giving Cal-
ifornians the power to stop businesses from New laws will give real meaning to the phys- multinational organizations will have the published and shared.
selling their personal information and a GD- ical geography of where a user accesses scale to account for that kind of regulatory
PR-style right to have information deleted. the internet, and of where the companies complexity, but new entrants may find it
Even though the first enforcement actions involved are located. The CCPA, for exam- hard to serve—and monetize—audiences in
aren’t expected before April, businesses ple, protects California residents no matter multiple jurisdictions.
that serve Californians—even if they’re not where they are; the scope of other laws may
based in California—were required to be be different.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
The End of Attention Metrics
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight least 70 percent completion. Independent the settlement this year, and an unrelated the impact of their work—and to ensure that
measurement firm Nielsen calculated that suit—over allegedly inflated “potential reach” their partners trust their metrics.
The attention economy, which spawned
the film drew half that audience (13.2 million estimates—will move forward, keeping
listicles and tweet roundups, isn’t as easily Watchlist
viewers) in the first five days it was posted. the issue top-of-mind for publishers and
measured as previously thought.
The vastly different numbers can shape advertisers. Amazon Connect, Chartbeat, Financial
Why It Matters whether we think the film was a success, Times, Google Analytics, Interactive Adver-
how we perceive Netflix’s future strategy What’s Next tising Bureau, streaming platforms.
Measuring how consumers allocate their
and more. Newsrooms have relied on real-time ana-
attention depends on how you count—and
Beyond different ways of counting, there’s lytics platforms for years. Chartbeat blinks
who is counting.
also outright fraud online. Schemes to and nags every editor’s station. Broadcast-
Examples manipulate metrics follow the money: ers depend on Nielsen ratings. But if so
MadHive, a digital TV advertising company, much internet traffic is fake, why bother
Researchers estimate that more than half
estimates that 20% of video ad requests with analytics platforms that measure
of web traffic is fake. Fraudulent traffic is
are fake, which accounted for nearly $1.4 everything rather than only what’s verifiably
generated by bots that can fake clicks and
billion wasted in 2019. That growth comes real? Watch for sharper, more discerning
by click farms in which a single user can
as digital advertising budgets are shifting to real-time analytics platforms, as well as
interact across scores of devices simulta-
video to match the growth in ad-supported more home-grown engagement metrics
neously. Nevertheless, vast portions of the
streaming options. that reflect how people value content.
digital economy are built around quantifying
how users consume media online. This is a serious problem for both publish- The Impact
ers that rely on ad revenue and for adver-
One week after the film “The Irishman” was As mainstream browsers increasingly block
tisers that need to satisfy client metrics.
made available for streaming, Netflix (who third-party tracking cookies by default, it will
Facebook reached a tentative $40 million Calculating how many people streamed The
had purchased the rights to the production) be harder to connect individuals to their ac-
settlement with advertisers in 2019 over a Irishman, and for how long, became a point
reported that 26.4 million households had tions across the web. Digital marketers and
miscalculation of video metrics in 2016. A of contention between Netflix and indepen-
watched the 3.5 hour-long feature to at advertisers must find new ways to quantify
federal judge in California should approve dent measurement companies.
101
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Digital Frailty
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Differentiating material with archival value

from digital flotsam isn’t always simple.
Digital Frailty is when digital assets are
Twitter announced that it would delete
impermanent or easily compromised by
accounts that had been inactive for an
technical glitches.
extended time in November 2019. That deci-
Why It Matters sion was meant to make unused usernames
available to active Tweeters, but it neglect-
Digital frailty is evolving from a flaw into a
ed a major reason that accounts go stale:
feature: This trend emerged as media was
death. After backlash from folks who wanted
erased from the web because old sites were
to preserve their loved ones’ tweets, Twitter
no longer maintained. It's still problematic
quickly backed off the policy shift, saying it
when information with archival value is lost,
wouldn’t move forward until it created a way
but more systems are being designed to en-
to memorialize dormant accounts.
code impermanence as users adapt ephem-
eral tools like Instagram stories or messag- Most material disappears unintentionally,
es that expire within a set timeframe. but that’s not always the case: Users post
stories to Snapchat and Instagram with
Examples the expectation that their posts will expire.
Platforms could remove posts that violate
MySpace announced in March 2019 that it
their terms of service, even if that informa-
had accidentally deleted all of the photos,
tion is newsworthy or relevant to a public
videos and audio files uploaded to the
debate. Twitter has said it will make ex-
platform before 2015, which included an
ceptions to its content regulation rules for
estimated 50 million songs. The Internet Ar-
Politwoops tracks deleted tweets by public officials, including incumbents and candidates certain public figures but other platforms
chive found a fraction of those, but the inci-
running for office. might act differently.
dent remains a cautionary tale for those who
assume their uploads are stored forever.

There’s also risk when organizations turn aren’t always: An archive of administra- What’s Next reach adulthood or should they be held
to external tools or services to manage tion-curated news updates (primarily from accountable for ideas they try on for size
Sometimes new technology obviates the old
their prominent programming. Storify was conservative outlets) was removed from the on the way to maturity? (See also: Cancel
before anyone has had a chance to convert
a popular tool for aggregating social media White House website last year as a matter culture)
files or develop archives. The Internet Ar-
posts around a major news event. A team of of housekeeping.
chive and others try to create snapshots in The Impact
journalists working for Reported.ly, a now And what about a president’s tweets? The time, but the services can struggle with dy-
defunct experiment run by First Look Me- U.S. National Archives says that posted Future historians might look back at the
namic sites that rely heavily on JavaScript.
dia, won a 2015 Online Journalism Award for tweets are considered presidential records generations alive today and wish we had
While there’s archival value to the files we
reporting on the shooting at Charlie Hebdo and requested that the White House save done a better job of preserving daily life as
post online, users are increasingly choosing
magazine in real-time. All that reporting deleted or altered tweets. The COVFEFE Act it was unfolding.
ephemeral formats to share via Instagram
lived on Storify but was lost when the plat- (a backronym for one of President Trump’s Stories and Snap. How will future societies
form shut down in 2018. Watchlist
unexplained and presumably mistyped learn from the past if they cannot study the
The Environmental and Data Governance tweets) sought to reduce confusion by first draft of our present history? Do we Messaging platforms.
Initiative estimates that the Trump adminis- amending the Presidential Records Act to have an obligation to preserve the digital
tration removed one-quarter of all referenc- include social media posts, but it stalled in conversations shaping society? Should we
es to climate change on government web the House. Some independent websites, be working harder to ensure that digital
pages. This was an effort to support the including ProPublica’s Politwoops project, archives aren’t lost?
Trump administration’s ideas and policies. are now archiving President Trump’s deleted
As we develop expectations for what should
The Trump administration also removed tweets. Other news organizations are
be archived, we must consider the risks of
LGBTQ content from federal websites, following suit and applying the same stan-
creating an indelible record: What should
scrubbed a lot of civil rights information off dard to other officials—The Intercept, for
happen to posts shared by minors to social
of WhiteHouse.gov and scrubbed the HHS. example, reported on and preserved racist
networks or student assignments posted
gov website of healthcare data. While digital posts by Border Patrol agents to a private
to a school’s digital portal? Do young people
deletions can be politically motivated, they Facebook group.
have the right to a blank slate when they
103
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Trigger Warnings
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight threads and in blogs. Reviewers include

spoiler alerts when revealing pivotal details
Trigger warnings now appear in email sub-
about content that their audience may not
ject lines, on social media posts and even in
yet have consumed. On the new Disney+
conversation. They’re a way of signaling that
streaming service, movies like “Lady and
the information about to be conveyed may
The Tramp” and “Dumbo” include warnings
upset or aggravate certain readers, viewers,
that the films may contain “outdated cultural
or listeners.
depictions.”
Why It Matters The first trigger warnings appeared on
Do trigger warnings protect vulnerable feminist message boards during the ‘90s
populations or coddle overly sensitive youth in posts discussing sexual assault. The
and encumber free speech? The longevity of practice of warning readers about what
the debate and growing empirical evidence they might encounter spread to other online
suggest both positions are wrong: trigger communities, but hit the mainstream when
warnings don’t mitigate trauma, but clearly the warnings started to appear in syllabi
serve a social function that has led to their on college campuses: A NPR survey of 800
Prefacing content with the term “trigger warning” (sometimes shortened to “TW”) is a sig- professors in 2015 found that about half
propagation.
nal that what’s about to be conveyed could be unsettling or offensive. reported using a trigger warning before
Examples introducing potentially difficult material on
a variety of subjects.
The controversy about trigger warnings has
cooled since Slate declared 2013 “year of Harvard researchers designed an exper-
the trigger warning,” but signposting what a iment last year to test whether trigger
reader might encounter is no less com- warnings can help trauma survivors engage
mon: Trigger warnings appear on Twitter with potentially distressing literature. The

psychologists randomly split 451 survivors individuals who use and expect certain
into one group that received trigger warn- types of warnings. So far, trigger warnings
ings before being exposed to the content, have widened existing divisions between
and one that didn’t. There was no evidence people who value their usage and those who
that trigger warnings reduced anxiety (even mock their usage.
among those with diagnosed PTSD), and in
fact there was “substantial evidence that The Impact
trigger warnings countertherapeutically If we conceptualize the term broadly,
reinforce survivors' view of their trauma as perhaps we could imagine a way to bridge
central to their identity.” That study adds our fractured media landscape by enabling
to a growing body of literature with similar individuals to broach controversial subjects
conclusions. without excluding potentially sensitive
groups from the conversation.
What’s Next
Researchers will continue to investigate Watchlist
how trigger warnings function as a precau- American Association of University Pro-
tionary measure for potential trauma, and fessors, Modern Language Association,
some pundits will continue to decry them as National Coalition Against Censorship.
hypersensitive. But the practice of warning
audiences about what they might encoun-
ter while reading or watching is unlikely
to disappear: The signposts are a way to
build a connection between the creator and
consumer and to forge a community among
105
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Abusing the Notification Layer
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Publishers commonly see dramatic spikes in What’s Next

app usage when an alert is sent. Users who
Push notifications can be a powerful tool to As consumers receive notifications from
opt in to push notifications use their apps
deliver time-sensitive information, updates, more sources, it will get harder to be heard
more frequently, and active users are less
reminders and messages directly to our through the din. iOS already clusters mul-
likely to drop a subscription.
phones, wearables or connected devices— tiple incoming notifications from a single
and they seize our attention in a way that It’s not just news apps that use push notifi- source, making it easier for users to then
passive or in-app notifications can’t. cations: Social networking apps and games dismiss them wholesale.
use them to command our attention (see
Why It Matters digital vices). Wearables, including the Apple The Impact
Precisely because they are designed to Watch and Fitbit, use them to remind us to Publishers and app makers must get more
Wireless users in the U.S. cannot opt out of demand attention, notifications can be used stay active. Law enforcement, the national sophisticated to ensure their messages
notifications from the president. either to inform or to pester users, poten- weather service and local governments use don’t get lost—and must help users under-
tially reshaping their behavior. them to broadcast emergency information stand what types of notifications will be
or Amber Alerts. President Donald Trump sent before asking them to opt in, for exam-
Examples ordered a nationwide test of the Nation- ple, so people can make an informed choice.
al Wireless Emergency Alert System in
News organizations have been refining
their push notification strategies for
October 2018. That alert, delivered to mobile Watchlist
devices, generated headlines because users
several years, and consumers are starting Tech platforms, mobile OEMS, emergency
cannot opt out of presidential alerts, but
to respond: A growing share of consumers management systems, local government
the underlying system is a routine tool for
around the world reported using a push noti- agencies, and federal agencies.
emergency managers. The Federal Commu-
fication to get a news story in the last week,
nications Commission said local govern-
according to the 2019 Reuters Institute
ments have sent more than 40,000 alerts
Digital News Report.
since 2012.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Cancel Culture and its Backlash
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight canceled over her views on immigration— What’s Next Watchlist
plus many, many other individuals who are
Shame isn’t a new political tactic, but social Every day we create a lasting record of our Political movements on all sides of the
seen to have acted immorally or unjustly.
media has created a supercharged cycle of lives thanks to the proliferation of connect- spectrum, public figures, social media influ-
outrage, boycott and backlash with its own Although cancel culture is frequently seen ed devices and the often indelible nature of encers, technology platforms.
name: “cancel culture.” as endemic to the political left, the trans- online data and content. As people evolve,
gressions that lead to calls for cancellation those records will memorialize their choic-
Why It Matters take many forms:Conservative activists es, messages, and frustrations—including
The impulse to “cancel” an individual, public- cancel their Netflix subscriptions for per- those that are glaringly out of sync with
ly and collectively labeling them as a pariah ceived liberal bias on the streaming service. current society. Not only will it be easier to
in response to perceived bad behavior, rais- Students at Harvard reject the Harvard find past actions of individuals that trans-
es deep questions about how we hold oth- Crimson after student journalists ask U.S. gress contemporary social norms, but there
ers—especially those with broad platforms— Immigration and Customs Enforcement will inevitably continue to be individuals
accountable, but also challenges us to think (ICE) officials to comment on an immigra- who actively breach our trust in the present
about how one might seek forgiveness after tion-related event on campus. YouTube day with unacceptable, illegal or repulsive
transgressing communal decorum. personalities cancel each other for personal behavior.
slights, and teenagers use the term collo-
Examples quially to single out social behavior they The Impact
think is unacceptable. As a society, the question is whether cancel
“Cancelling” can come in many forms:
calling out, deplatforming, boycotting. It has Former President Barack Obama was one of culture will leave any room for redemption.
happened to celebrities like comedian Louis many voices pushing back against the cul- Will we have a mechanism for those who
C.K., who was pilloried and lost lucrative ture of calling people out online. “The world transgress to learn from their mistakes?
contracts after being exposed for sexual is messy; there are ambiguities,” he said What can someone do to repent for their
misconduct, and political figures like conser- at an Obama Foundation event in October. actions? And who gets to decide when that In 2017, a New York Times story revealed
vative columnist Michelle Malkin, who had “People who do really good stuff have flaws. repentance is complete—the transgressor, allegations of sexual misconduct by Louis
a university speaking engagement literally People who you are fighting may love their or the person or community who feels they CK, who later acknowledged they were true.
kids, and share certain things with you.” were violated?
107
07 Social Media Platforms
110 Decentralized
Content Platforms
111 Platform Ownership
112 Platform Switching
and Demographic Shifts
Threaten Established
Social Networks
113 Platforms Forced
to Pick a Side
115 Censorship in
the Digital Age
117 Detecting Authentic
Activity
109
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Decentralized Content Platforms
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight and rewards for the content they produce What’s Next
and curate. In April 2019, one of YouTube’s
Digital influencers will wield far more influ- Centralized content platforms must make
most popular content creators, PewDiePie,
ence over consumers than big, recognizable concessions in the form of revenue splits,
struck a deal to exclusively livestream all his
brands by using decentralized platforms. content moderation, or managing audi-
content on DLive, a new decentralized video
How? Blockchains and distributed ledgers ences. By making parts of their platforms
platform. These kinds of decentralized
now shift the incentive structures for how decentralized, companies like Twitter and
systems allow audiences of any size to coor-
content gets curated and consumed—from Facebook will also be able to shirk the
dinate and self-organize, reducing the need
centralized algorithms to vast user bases responsibility of moderating offensive
for intermediaries and diminishing the role
who vote for content in return for payments, content.
of distributors and curators. This could cre-
reputation, and access.
ate a proving ground for an alternate form The Impact
Why It Matters of editorial curation—one that gives more
Expect users to demand that platforms
control to content creators, whether it’s a
This impacts myriad industries, including place greater importance on trust and
social media or posting a public speech.
online gaming, fashion, retail, tourism, auto credibility.
These kinds of networks also make it harder
manufacturers and even the 2020 political
YouTube star PewDiePie struck a deal to to censor or limit access to information,
campaigns. Watchlist
exclusively livestream all his content on and creators can be guaranteed that what
DLive, a new decentralized video platform. they produce doesn’t get altered, filtered, or DLive, Facebook, Gab, Mastodon, Mixer,
Examples Reddit, Twitter, YouTube.
blocked by a third party. Gab, a decentral-
In July 2019, Jack Dorsey announced plans ized social media alternative to Twitter, has
to “decentralize” Twitter by making it an grown by providing an alternative to larger
open-source protocol—a move that under- platforms, which have banned such users as
scores a larger trend in decentralizing con- Alex Jones, and which have strict content
tent platforms. Platforms like Gab and Mast- moderation policies restricting inappropri-
odon give content creators and community ate content and cyberbullying.
administrators more flexibility, ownership,

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Platform Ownership
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight to keep watching past the first few seconds FaceApp permission to upload the imag- The Impact
while also evading notice by TikTok’s moder- es to its cloud servers—and potentially to
The platforms that shaped the last decade The growth of TikTok offers an opportunity
ators, who could have removed or curtailed transfer to the data to any location where
came out of Silicon Valley; that won’t neces- to consider the implications of platforms
the reach of the video. The creator claims the company operates. The company’s
sarily be true in the future. Popular apps are built without American notions of free
she was suspended from the platform for a founder said no data was transferred to
now emerging from countries like China and speech at their core.
month, but TikTok said the video was acci- Russia, and the firm added an option to let
Russia, where censorship is commonplace.
dentally removed and the suspension was users delete their data. But the uproar that Watchlist
As a result, we must grapple with the values
due to a video posted to a different account. preceded those announcements foreshad-
and features that define social networking. ByteDance, Committee on Foreign Invest-
The Committee on Foreign Investment in owed a fear that a seemingly silly game
ment in the United States, FaceApp, Peo-
Why it Matters the United States, a government entity could become a tool for capturing data to be
ple’s Republic of China, TikTok, social media
that reviews transactions involving foreign used as fodder in a geopolitical conflict.
A leaked version of TikTok’s moderation tools and apps everywhere.
companies, launched an investigation into
policy suggests the platform takes steps to
TikTok and its parent company ByteDance What’s Next
reduce the reach of political posts, even if
after it acquired the app Musical.ly for $1 App designers encode their values and
the original video isn’t deleted outright. How
billion. That review will draw additional political attitudes into every choice they
will we respond to platforms with a very
scrutiny of TikTok, specifically around how make. As a result, we will increasingly grap-
different understanding of free speech than
it treats American user data and whether ple with technology that challenges deeply
our own?
the app is being used to further Chinese held assumptions about the world. Should
political interests. we download apps that transfer data into
Examples
Earlier in the year, selfies from FaceApp regions with different privacy laws? Should
A makeup tutorial went viral on TikTok in
were all over social media. The Rus- we post to platforms that actively censor
November 2019—not noteworthy on its own,
sian-based app uses neural networks to controversial ideas? When should we act on
except that the video was actually a plea
make users look older or younger. To use suspicion about a tech company’s practic- This viral TikTok video disguised itself as a
for viewers to inform themselves about makeup tutorial but really implored viewers
the photo filters, however, users had to es—only when we can prove wrongdoing
China’s treatment of Uighurs. The video was to learn about China’s treatment of Uighurs.
agree to the privacy policy, which gave completely? Or do we do it preemptively?
designed to entice the creator’s audience TikTok removed the video.
111
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Platform Switching and Demographic
STRATEGY NOW
Shifts Threaten Established Social REVISIT KEEP

L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Networks LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
Key Insight Examples shaped by starring roles in their parents’

posts, stories, and memes. A strong user
As Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram grew, While public sharing on Facebook fell in
base today won’t be enough to guarantee a
it seemed inevitable that they couldn’t be almost every country in 2018, total engage-
social platform’s future; instead, successful
replaced, so long as they had enough users ment stayed steady. Why? Because users
players will wrestle constantly with privacy,
and successfully worked their way into the were creating Stories, a feature adapted
interpersonal connections and evolving
fabric of those user’s lives. That assump- from other platforms. To preserve its
consumption patterns.
tion is proving false as consumer behavior dominance, Facebook also formed a team in
evolves and Gen Z displays a willingness to July of 2019 to develop experimental apps The Impact
jump between social networks. that could win over new audiences. The
If platform switching is more common than
Seventy-three percent of adults aged 18-24 New Product Experimentation (NPE) team
now use Snapchat. Why it Matters launched its first apps just months later—
previously thought, it raises the stakes for
incumbents trying to defend their market
The most used social networks today— one a chat app for introducing new people,
position, and opens new opportunities for
Facebook and YouTube—started more than and another devoted to streaming music
startups trying to win market share.
a decade ago. Their relative popularity has with friends.
remained consistent over the last several Watchlist
years, but that could drop as other plat- What’s Next
ByteDance, Facebook, Instagram, NPE
forms come into favor: Only 24% of Amer- Beyond keeping up with the changing pref-
team, Twitter, Snap, YouTube.
ican adults report using Snapchat, com- erences of Gen-Z, will today’s most popular
pared to 73% of 18-24 year olds, according platforms evolve to fit into the world they’ve
to the Pew Research Center. shaped? The children of millenials will come
of age with memories and experiences

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Platforms Forced to Pick a Side
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight preemptive moderation with a policy to ban What’s Next will be politicized and exploited with far
misinformation about the 2020 census and reaching consequences for our political
As hate speech, fake news, and rampant As platforms take a more active stance,
a ban on videos manipulated with A.I. sys- climate.
harassment escalate, online platforms and they must balance their principles with
tems. But the company has generally taken
social media sites are increasingly invest- possible backlash from users: When Reddit Watchlist
a more hands-off approach—in particular
ing in moderation of their platforms. Each quarantined the controversial President
when it comes to fact-checking political The Coral Project, Facebook, Perspective
platform takes a different tack to enforce Trump-focused subreddit r/The_Donald,
ads. Twitter, meanwhile, decided it would API by Google, Reddit, Tumblr, Twitter,
its own policies, including blending human users started a campaign to move the con-
ban political advertising entirely. YouTube, political parties and candidates on
moderators and algorithms to detect hate versations to other platforms that might be
Classifying political speech is difficult both sides.
or problematic speech, and other features more welcoming to conservatives.
like muting or blocking users. because the process inevitably becomes,
Decisions about all kinds of content, from
well, political—and moderation policies
user posts to political advertising, will be
Why it Matters sometimes have unexpected consequenc-
highly scrutinized and possibly politicized.
Moderation requires making choices about es. When Tumblr announced in 2018 it would
The proliferation of policies to regulate
what is acceptable—and what isn’t. Plat- ban pornography, it disrupted communi-
speech could push meaningful conversa-
forms must think carefully about what they ties of queer and gender non-conforming
tions about what should be allowed in the
optimize for and whose needs they consid- adults who were drawn to the site’s formerly
public forum; if not, it could further polarize
er, because any decision could be politi- permissive rules. When Twitter announced
debate, pushing users deeper into channels
cized and the platform’s interests may not it would ban political advertising, some
with narrower audiences.
align with society’s. labor groups and activists worried it would
be harder to share their messages. An The Impact
Examples energy company, for instance, could post a
As the 2020 election cycle kicks into full
brand campaign painting a rosy picture of
YouTube rolled out new terms of service swing, each major social platform has a dif-
fossil fuels, while environmental activists Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Instagram
at the end of 2019, adding the phrase, ferent posture toward political advertising,
couldn’t post ads for legislation to cut back are investing in moderation of content on
“YouTube is under no obligation to host or misleading posts and more. Those stances
on emissions. their platforms.
serve content.” Facebook is wading into
113
SCENARIOS • SAM GUZIK
Forcing Difficult Perfectly Passable Treating the Symptom,

Conversations Platforms Not the Problem
NEAR-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO NEAR-FUTURE NEUTRAL SCENARIO NEAR-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO

Social networks and publishers aren’t excited Platforms are largely reactive. While A.I.-pow- Stung by public relations crises and aware of
to define standards for acceptable behav- ered and human moderators at Facebook, regulations on acceptable speech around the
ior, but they recognize that doing so is their Twitter, YouTube, and others make countless world, platform companies know they need
responsibility. Because there are as many decisions every day, they function largely to take bigger steps to moderate what they
rules as platforms, designers and developers behind the curtain. While posts are sometimes post. But development is slow: Each time they
explain how users should act (not just how removed, more often they are just made less introduce a new tool to curb extreme posts,
they shouldn’t). The result: meaningful con- discoverable. Because moderation largely engagement drops among a small but measur-
versations about how we engage digitally. happens out of view, platforms make headlines able segment of the audience. Engagement is
Some people migrate to platforms based on when they take decisive action, such as ban- the lifeblood of a digital platform, and key prod-
what posts are allowed, just as newspapers ning prominent users or removing controver- uct managers know they can’t exacerbate user
see subscribers cancel after a controversial sial posts. These key players don’t coordinate declines while solving the toxic speech prob-
editorial or investigation. But because policies explicitly, but they tend to act in lock step, lem. They thread the needle by making it harder
are revised and enforced transparently, most hoping to fend off criticism. As a result, users to know whether a post was removed or seen
people make those decisions without losing increasingly believe that there’s political bias by other users. Users notice fewer posts that
overall trust in the media. baked into social products. “cross the line,” but mostly because they’ve
stopped seeing opinions they disagree with.

5TH YEAR ON THE LIST (ORIGINALLY FIRST AMENDMENT IN THE DIGITAL AGE)
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Censorship in the Digital Age
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples

As fake news spreads across the globe on The term “fake news” is relatively new, but
the internet and social platforms, censor- worries about misinformation aren’t. Just
ship and free speech play instrumental roles look at the 1938 “War of the Worlds” radio
in terms of design, development, and the broadcast—Orson Welles’ fictional story
legal protections afforded to creators and about an alien invasion that sent real-life
users of technology. New Yorkers into mass hysteria. The same
kind of hysteria takes place today on various
Why It Matters levels, thanks to the viral nature of fake
If Facebook or Twitter decided to block news, conspiracy theories, and misinfor-
all politically related posts because they mation spread on the internet. It’s causing
could not sufficiently weed out “fake” posts, damage outside the United States, too: Fol-
they would be making a business decision, lowing the February 2019 terrorist attacks
but not one that would raise First Amend- in Kashmir, India, fake stories, photos, and
ment issues. So, though we expect to see videos spread at unprecedented levels—ul-
platforms tighten the rules on what they timately fueling calls for military retaliation
deem permissible, they are fully entitled to against Pakistan and nearly leading the two
do so. In the United States, the larger First countries into war. In Egypt, fake news laws
Following the February 2019 terrorist attacks in Kashmir, India, fake stories, photos and Amendment issues as they relate to media are being used to silence dissent. For in-
videos spread at unprecedented levels. involve questions of what (if any) rights are stance, Egyptian activist Amal Fathy posted
afforded to A.I. and what liability (if any) can a video in which she claimed police officers
be imposed on the creators of technology, had sexually harassed her. Two days later,
algorithms, and code. her house was raided, and she and her son
were jailed for “spreading false news.”
115
Censorship in the Digital Age cont.
What’s Next Yet another option would be deciding that companies, governments, and citizens
all A.I.-produced content is considered free across the globe must balance the need for
Moving forward, there are numerous
speech. Supporters of this view contend free speech with the need for truth. Fake
scenarios for how the U.S. government
that the First Amendment does not limit news threatens democracy globally, causing
chooses to protect speech created by A.I.
speech to that created by humans, hence confusion, spreading misinformation and
or automated devices. The most restrictive
any content produced by a voice interface seeding distrust of the news media.
scenario would involve deciding that First
or bot should be protected. While on one
Amendment protections do not extend Watchlist
hand this opens the possibility to all content
beyond human produced speech. This
being considered speech, if A.I.-created European Union, Federal Communications
scenario is unlikely due to the fact that
content is protected as speech, the legal Commission, Google, Facebook, Microsoft,
Egyptian activist Amal Fathy posted a some human programming does go into bot
entities producing such content could be Apple, Amazon, Snap, Instagram, YouTube,
video in which she claimed police officers creation, and would mean that a string of
held liable if appropriate. Twitch, broadcasters, newspapers, radio
sexually harassed her. She was soon jailed different technological advances (such as
for violating the country’s “fake news” laws. We are likely to see some hybrids of these stations, digital media organizations, Jack
voice recognition and generation) could be
stances come about as legal questions Balkin (Knight Professor of Constitutional
afforded fewer protections.
arise. Look for media and journalism to be Law and the First Amendment at Yale Law
A second possibility involves deciding that School), Margot Kaminski (Associate Profes-
at the epicenter of numerous technolo-
the human programmer would be pro- sor, University of Colorado Law).
gy-related legal questions moving forward
tected under the First Amendment, while
everywhere around the world.
A.I.-created speech would not be afforded
protections. This attempt to compromise The Impact
makes sense at some level but could fall
Americans say fake news is a more pressing
short when it comes to being able to fully
problem than climate change, terrorism,
give credit (or blame) to content created by
or racism, according to a 2019 study by
a human vs A.I. technology.
the Pew Research Center. Social media

3RD YEAR ON THE LIST
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Detecting Authentic Activity
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight news online, according to the Pew Research that they must reel in fake news, and special Impact
Center. In some cases, conspiracy theories working groups within the United Nations
Social networks including Facebook and Labeling of bots will continue to be prob-
spread by bots inspired real-world violence. have explored the topic of regulation, ques-
Twitter have promised to tweak their algo- lematic. Algorithms, for instance, could cast
tioning what responsibilities and standards
rithms to curb the spread of bot-generated In December 2019, Facebook and Twitter a too-wide net, wrongfully flagging inno-
social media companies should have when it
content and engagement—but the bots shut down a system of fake accounts pre- cent content, such as voice-to-text posts
comes to international law.
are becoming more human and difficult to tending to be real Americans that were pho- from those with disabilities. If not carefully
detect. tos of A.I.-generated faces and disseminat- handled by tech companies and regulators,
What’s Next
ing pro-Trump messages. All told, in 2019, the labeling could also undermine freedom
Why It Matters Facebook removed 3.2 billion fake accounts The challenge going forward: Algorithm
of expression in democracies.
between April and September—double that changes tend to happen in real-time, with
Some bots may be harmless, helpful, or
funny, but others manipulate people by of the same time period in 2018—while Twit- live audiences. Not all scenarios have been Watchlist
ter suspended 88,000 accounts. The Uni- mapped and tested. This became apparent
spreading misinformation, artificially Facebook, Google, Instagram, Snap, Twitter,
versity of Indiana created a bot tool called when a fake story about a Muslim man,
inflating the popularity of people, ideas, or the United Nations, regulators, digital ad-
Botometer that checks Twitter activity on warning others about a planned terrorist
products. There’s also the risk of fraud, sup- vertisers, digital marketers.
accounts and scores them on the likelihood attack in Slovakia, went viral. Local police
pressing speech, spam, malware, cyberbul-
they are a bot. issued a statement correcting the story,
lying, and trolling. The result: a social media
but since it came from the official police
landscape in which the public increasingly However, researchers at the NATO Stra-
station’s account, tweaks to the News Feed
struggles to distinguish reality from lies. tegic Command Centre of Excellence
algorithm prevented Facebook users from
in Latvia found it’s simple to buy tens of
Examples seeing it. As social media companies exper-
thousands of comments, likes, and views on
iment with better ways to curb the spread
Russian-linked Facebook and Twitter bot ac- Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and Twitter.
of fake and misleading information, we will
counts spread disinformation during the 2016 Countries across the globe—including India
see glitches and potentially even more fake
U.S. presidential election. This is concerning following the aforementioned terrorist at- Fake accounts and bots spread
news stories being spread in the foresee-
when two-thirds of Americans get their tack—have warned social media companies misinformation and artificially inflate the
able future.
popularity of people, ideas, or products.
117
08 Sports & Gaming
120 eSports
122 Infinite Gameplay
123 Sports Tech
119
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
eSports
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples

eSports is the rapidly growing industry of The 2019 League of Legends World Cham-
competitive digital gaming, specifically pionships had more than 100 million unique
when performed professionally and for a viewers. For comparison, the Super Bowl
live streaming, broadcast, or in-person had 103 million unique viewers that year.
audience. While organized competitive Twitch, the primary streaming portal for
gaming has arguably existed for decades, eSports in the Western world, logged a
advancements in gaming technology, staggering 800,000 years worth of content
accessibility, streaming capabilities, and viewed in 2018 alone. (Twitch was acquired
popularity have led to an astronomical rise by Amazon in 2014.) One game that entered
in its commercial potential and perceived the global zeitgeist since its launch in 2017
legitimacy in recent years. is Fortnite, with a reported 250 million
registered accounts and monthly active
Why It Matters users in the tens of millions. In 2019, Fornite
In 2019, the top four gaming platforms had pushed boundaries on in-game content with
a combined 12.7 billion hours of streaming events such as the DJ Marshmello concert,
content. Players endure 14-hour day mar- with more than 10 million unique views,
FunPlus Phoenix, the League of Legends world champions, took home over $2.5 million in athon gaming sessions seven days a week and the black hole blackout, where millions
prize money and a massive trophy. in pursuit of huge cash prizes. Millions of of viewers logged in to watch essentially
Image credit: Joao Ferreira / ESPAT Media dollars are at stake, and millions of fans a looped video of a black hole while the
are watching. game was offline for maintenance for 48
hours. Parent company Epic Games quickly

capitalized on Fortnite’s success, pledging for events like League of Legends World Watchlist Sillz, Smashcast, Smite, Sony, StarLadder,
a record $100 million in prize money for Championships and Fortnite concerts. eS- StarCraft, Street Fighter V, Steam Fluence,
100 Thieves, Activision Blizzard, Alienware,
the game’s tournament season last year. ports may one day rival television as a form Super League Gaming, TeamLiquid, Ten-
AppGameKit, Apple, ARCore, Bethesda
Non-gaming content also does well on of mainstream entertainment because of its cent, Turtle Beach, Twitch, Ubisoft, Unity,
Game Studios, Buildbox, Caffeine, Call of
eSports platforms. The “Just Chatting” interactive and immersive nature. Adver- Upfluence, Vive, Y Media Labs, YouTube.
Duty, Call of Duty World League, Capcom,
chatroom channel on Twitch has been the tisers are taking notice. Louis Vuitton part-
Catalyst Sports & Media, Cloud9, Complexi-
third most popular channel for the past two nered with Riot Games to design custom
ty, Corona, Counter Logic Gaming, Crunchy-
years. Platforms like Facebook, YouTube avatar skins and player accessories. Nike
roll, Dogo Madness, Douyu.com, Dreamhack,
and Microsoft’s Mixer now lure top gamers sponsors several professional teams. As the
EA, EA's Origin, Echo Fox, ECS, Epic Games,
away from Twitch with exclusivity con- sport matures, so will concerns about fair
ESEA, ESP Gaming, ESPN+, eSports Arena,
tracts, but it will take more than that to chip play. E-doping is already an issue in profes-
eSports One, eSports Stadium, Evolved,
away at Twitch’s dominance. sional eSports leagues, where Adderall and
Facebook Gaming, Fifa, Fnatic, Fortnight,
Ritalin are banned substances and using a
What’s Next Galibelum, Game Coach, Gamer Sensei,
cheat-code can get you banned for life.
GamerHours, GameWorks, Godot, Google
Leading up to this year’s 2020 Olympic
The Impact Play, Google's Stadia, HTC eSports, Huya,
Games in Tokyo, Intel will host its Intel
HyperX, iBuyPower, Immortals, Intel, Intel
World Open eSports tournament featuring eSports is primed to continue its growth as
Extreme Masters, League of Legends,
Street Fighter V and Rocket League with a major cultural phenomenon in the near fu-
League of Legends Championship Series,
a total prize pool of $500,000. The 2024 ture, with significant impact expected in the
Logitech, MagicLeap, Minecraft, Microsoft
Olympics, held in Paris, will include demon- gaming, sports, streaming, entertainment
Studios, Microsoft's Hololens, Microsoft's
stration eSports events. and tech sectors. eSports is also viewed as
Mixer, MLG, Nintendo, Nvidia, Oculus,
As audience numbers for eSports continue one of the first truly global entertainment
Overwatch, Overwatch League, PandaS-
to climb, platforms will compete to outbid mediums in its reach and influence, which
core, Playvs, PressX, Red Dead Redemp-
each other for media and streaming rights has investors salivating.
tion, Rocket League, RTSmunity, Sega,
121
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Infinite Gameplay
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples lives. Connected exercise platforms, such

as Peloton bikes, use built-in game ele-
The most popular video games today have Never-ending games are nothing new.
ments (badges, contests and leaderboards).
one thing in common: They never end. Rath- Virtual world Second Life was launched all
Meditation apps like Headspace nudge
er than traditional games with a beginning, the way back in 2003, and The Sims and
and reward us (somewhat paradoxically) to
middle and end, many of these video games Minecraft are examples of longstanding
engage with them. Workplace optimization
are more like online worlds, where players games that allow players to build their own
tools also encourage us to strive for new
can participate whenever and for however realities. More recent titles like Fortnight
achievements, with progress and rewards
long they like, with success measured in and League of Legends are universes that
being symbolized in digital form.
achievements instead of a single, finite players can log into at any time for a fully
objective. Infinite gameplay means you immersive and interactive break from the The Impact
Fortnight launched in 2017 and quickly never have to log off, and you’ll never defeat real world. Classic games like Super Mario,
In the future, never-ending games will blur
became one of the world’s most popular the final boss. In these never-ending games, Pokemon and Grand Theft Auto are being
games. the line between the multiple digital spaces
players can also take part in hybrid re- redesigned and re-released in this unre-
we inhabit, be they personal, professional
al-world experiences like going to a concert stricted format to the delight of gamers
or social.
or even buying real estate. everywhere.
What’s Next Watchlist

Why It Matters
Android, EA, EVE Online, The Elder Scrolls,
How do you “win” a game if it has no end?
Infinite gameplay sheds light on the Fortnight, Google Play, Google's Stadia,
Newer game design elements perfect
hardware and software needs we might Grand Theft Auto, HTC, iOS, LittleBigPlanet,
addiction triggers and dopamine rewards to
encounter as our lives shift more and more Minecraft, Microsoft, Nintendo, Nintendo
shape and alter our psychological state and
online, and the increasingly immersive and Switch, PlayStation, Red Dead Redemption,
behavior. Our lives will be increasingly gam-
durational experience of online gaming. Ring Fit Adventure for Nintendo Switch,
ified, as never-ending games merge with
SimCity, Sony, Tencent, Tetris, The Sims,
the activities that already form part of our
Twitch, Xbox, Youtube.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Sports Tech
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight this has significance beyond concussions in kicked. Meanwhile stadiums employ drones Watchlist
the NFL. In 2015, the Fédération Internatio- and video for everything from audience
Elite athletes are using more and more Adidas, AHL, AlterG, ASICS, Babolat, Black
nale de Football Association (Europe’s gov- sentiment analysis to cleaning up garbage
sophisticated tech tools to improve training Diamond, Bundesliga, Campeonato Brasile-
erning body for professional soccer, or FIFA) after games.
and performance. Stadiums now use au- iro, Chinese Super League, CWHL, ESPN,
approved the use of “wearable technology”
dience analysis and drones to improve the What’s Next FIBA, FIFA, Formula One, J1 League, La Liga,
in games. Since then, athletes have started
live and televised experience. Much of this Ligue 1, Major League Soccer, MLB, National
using increasingly complex performance Italian equipment manufacturer TechnoGym
sport technology could eventually end up in Pro Fastpitch, NBA, NFL, NHL, Nike, Nippon
tracking systems such as smart gloves and is developing next-generation machines that
the hands of consumers looking to improve Professional Baseball, NWHL, NWSL, Pelo-
smart helmets. incorporate a user’s biometric data, which
their health and well-being. ton, Premier League, Puma, Reebok, Rid-
can be tracked before, during and after exer-
Examples dell, TechnoGym, UEFA Champions League,
Why It Matters cise. Emerging research in reduced-gravity
Under Armour, Wilson, WNBA.
Football equipment manufacturer Riddell activity is helping athletes re-acclimate after
Professional NFL players are retiring early,
now makes smart helmets outfitted with injury. AlterG’s anti-gravity treadmill auto-
citing a history of concussions and the risks
tiny sensors that transmit impact data in matically unweights athletes to as little as
of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or
real time. Coaches on the sidelines can see 20% of body weight in precise 1% increments
CTE. In January of 2020, seven-time Pro
the effects of single and multiple impacts for low-impact, pain-free movement.
Bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly retired from
sustained during a game, and they receive
the NFL at just 28 years old, and he wasn’t The Impact
alerts if the numbers get too high. The Wil-
the first to hang up his helmet before 30.
son X Connected basketball is embedded Smart sports equipment could reach a mar-
Rob Gronkowski and Andrew Luck both
with sensors and tracks patterns in shoot- ket size of $12 billion over the next five years.
retired last year at age 29. As competitive
ing. Adidas makes a smart soccer ball with The use of advanced technology in both
sports become more intense, data-tracking
integrated sensors that can detect speed, analytics and performance is likely to alter Riddell’s InSite training helmet collects and
tools could help prevent the kinds of injuries
spin, strike, and trajectory when the ball is the state of many contemporary sports. analyzes on-field head impacts.
that have led to these early retirements. But
123
09 Toys
126 Connected Toys
127 Gamified Health Toys
and Games
128 Smart Toys and
Privacy Concerns
125
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Connected Toys
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight more that personality evolves. Made by San The Impact
Francisco-based company Anki, the toy ex-
Connected toys collect and use data for in- As connected toys become more affordable,
presses anger when he loses a contest, and
teractive experiences. While they’re fun for kids might prefer to play with devices rather
his eyes turn into upside-down U’s to show
kids, lawmakers and academic researchers than simply watch content on them. This
joy. Facial recognition allows it to remember
have raised questions about privacy. could start to negatively impact the use of
faces and call people by their names. Sony’s
tablets and apps.
Aibo is a lifelike robotic dog that responds
Why It Matters to touch—scratch his neck and his tail will Watchlist
Some of the most coveted toys from the start wagging. You can teach him tricks, like
2019 holiday season were connected dolls, Anki, Bandai Namco Holdings, Fisher-Price,
fetching a ball and giving a high-five. Aibo
robots and coding kits. Kano, Lego, Mattel, Meccano, Mibro, Soap-
also recognizes his owners using computer
Sony’s connected toy dog Aibo doubles as a Box Labs, Sony, Spin Master, Sphero, Toy-
vision technology.
smart home assistant. Context mail, UBTECH, WowWee, Wonder Workshop.
Twenty-five years ago, animatronic Teddy What’s Next

Ruxpin bears sang, told stories and even The upcoming generation of connected toys
blinked. Priced at $69.99 (roughly $167.00 in will use more data and will include even more
2020 dollars), the dolls had audio cassette personalization. Advancements in computer
decks built into their backs; specially-for- vision, voice and sound recognition, and
matted tapes controlled the servo motors spatial computing will result in richer, more
for Teddy’s eyes and mouth, and also played interactive experiences. As connected toys
audio recordings. For about the same evolve, they will rely less on mobile devices
price today, Cozmo is a small, self-aware, and will instead connect to the cloud. This
A.I.-powered robot with a base person- means increased bandwidth needs—and,
ality, and the more you play with him, the very likely, new privacy concerns.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Gamified Health Toys and Games
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight an LED screen with a preloaded game. The players jog or run in place. Kids who play
more water kids drink, the further their the game spend an average of 30 minutes in
Parents, increasingly concerned that their
character will get in the game. Parents active movement. On the horizon: massively
children aren’t getting enough exercise, are
can monitor their children’s hydration in multiplayer online fitness games, in which
looking to toys and games that nudge kids
real-time using a mobile app. Garmin’s kids can connect with each other and go on
into more active lifestyles. They’re also bor-
Vivofit Jr. is a fitness tracker that logs steps active adventures together.
rowing from the quantified-self movement
and activity, and its companion app works
to monitor kids’ health and wellness. The Impact
alongside an adventure game. Parents set
Nintendo’s Ring Fit Adventure teaches kids Why It Matters daily targets and rewards. When an activity Apps, games and toys to quantify kids’
how to do basic exercises. goal has been reached, kids can redeem health are becoming widely available, and
Approximately one in three children in the
their activity for the prizes their parents they will have a spill-over effect into other
U.S. are now considered to be overweight
have created. (Playdates and sleepovers are sectors like consumer electronics, home
or obese, according to the U.S. Centers for
popular.) automation and network connectivity.
Disease Control and Prevention. That num-
ber has tripled since the 1970s. Researchers What’s Next Watchlist
point to a lack of physical activity as a con-
Nintendo’s Ring Fit Adventure, which de- Bandai Namco Holdings, Garmin, Google’s
tributing factor. As a result, games and toys
buted in October 2019, highlights a new era Stadia, Gululu, Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony,
that encourage healthy behaviors are an
of gamified health toys and games built for toy retailers everywhere.
attractive market for toy developers, fitness
kids. As an add-on for the Nintendo Switch
trackers and game designers.
console, the game takes the player on an
Context athletic adventure through worlds, villages
and gyms. Cute monsters, dispatched by
The Gululu interactive smart water bottle
arch-nemesis Drageaux, challenge play-
and health tracker for kids encourages them
ers to battles: simple yoga poses, squats,
to drink more water. The bottle includes
crunches and planks. During the quest,
127
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Smart Toys and Privacy Concerns
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight their data. In the U.S., the Children's Online The Impact
Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) makes it
Connected toys and games require data to Toy manufacturers could find their products
illegal to collect data from children under
work properly, and privacy experts are con- pulled from shelves if their toys are found
the age of 13 without first obtaining a par-
cerned about how children’s data are being to be in violation of local guidelines and
ent’s consent, and in 2017 the Federal Trade
collected, used and safeguarded. recommendations.
Commission updated COPPA guidelines
Why It Matters to specifically include toy manufacturers. Watchlist
For connected toys, the terms of service
The smart toy industry is growing rapidly. Amazon, China, Federal Trade Commission,
are shown during set up, but most people
Some estimate the market could be worth Mozilla, U.S. Public Interest Research Group.
don’t read the fine print. As a result, they
more than $18 billion by 2023, but privacy
are agreeing to data sharing, whether they
Parents and privacy advocates are in- regulation is lagging behind technological
realize it or not.
creasingly concerned about the data being innovation. The biggest market for toys is
collected as children play with connected China, and the world’s largest toy retailer is What’s Next
toys and games. now Amazon.
The privacy risks posed by connected toys
Context mirror those adults face whenever using
phones, smart cameras and speakers, and
In 2018, Mozilla discovered that the Dash
other connected devices. But our tolerance
robot, which is a popular coding toy used
for data exposure shifts when children
in schools, was sharing children’s data with
are involved. In the U.S., we expect to see
third parties. So was Amazon’s Fire HD Kids’
heightened privacy concerns ahead of the
Edition, although the company has repeat-
2020 holiday season and increased scrutiny
edly said that parents have the ability to
by the FTC.
view their children’s activity and to delete

129
10 Vices
132 CBD-Infused Products
Scaling Cannabis Infusion
132
Techniques
133 Cannabis Supply Chains
Cannabis Compliance
133
Systems
133 Specialized Cannabis
CRM Platforms
133 Banking for Cannabis
Dispensaries
133 Digital Makeup
134 Vaping and E-cigarettes
134 Nootropics
134 Neuroenhancers
135 Digital Addiction
136 SexTech
131
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Vices
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WATCHLIST FOR SECTION the federal government’s stance on CBD is
murky. It depends on whether the CBD came
In our increasingly stressful society, people Alibaba, Alipay, Amazon, Baker, Bulletproof,
from hemp or marijuana, and every state
are seeking new forms of escape from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
follows different local laws. CBD has been
reality and mood alteration. This isn’t nec- Constellation Brands, Doppel, Eaze, Emotiv,
touted for a variety of health benefits and
essarily bad. In fact, many emerging digital Fedex, Food and Drug Administration,
has been shown in many studies to reduce
vices can actually strengthen our mental GreenRush, Heineken, Juul, MakeLoveNot-
seizures, especially in children with epilepsy
performance and agility, help us relax, and Porn, MasterCard, Muse, New Frontier Data,
syndromes. It’s commonly used in adults for
afford us moments of pleasure. Sina Technology, SmartCap, State Grid Zhe-
anxiety and insomnia. Because the Food
General Washington's Secret Stash beer is jiang Electric Power, Thync Kit, U.S. House
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW and Drug Administration doesn’t regulate
infused with cannabinoids. of Representatives, U.S. Senate Banking
CBD, there aren’t yet studies that determine
From audio stimulants to digital beauty Committee, UPS, Visa, Wayv.
the most effective doses. Most of what’s
filters, the unique market for digital and
commercially available in infused products
high-tech vices is growing.  TRENDS
like drinks and snacks is very low, but the
WHY IT MATTERS market is huge. In 2019, sales of CBD-in-
CBD-Infused Products fused products tripled from the year earlier,
According to a global survey of 150,000
You can now get CBD in your post-workout and some analysts say that the market could
by Gallop, Americans are now the most
smoothie, hand lotion, and even your morn- reach $20 billion by 2024.
stressed people in the world. More than half
ing coffee. Cannabidiol, otherwise known
of adults report experiencing stress during
as CBD, is a chemical compound found in Scaling Cannabis Infusion
“a lot of the day,” while 22% say they feel “a
the resinous flower of cannabis. While it’s a Techniques
lot” of anger daily. More Americans than ever
The Juul vape device is so popular that component of marijuana—one of hundreds,
are now practicing yoga and meditation, in One of the new business verticals within
“juuling” is now commonly used as a verb actually—it is far less psychoactive than the
addition to seeking out new ways to relax the cannabis industry is cannabis you can
to describe use of the device or other better-known THC, if at all. In other words,
e-cigarettes. and unwind. drink. As restrictions loosen on recreation-
it doesn’t really get you high. In the U.S.,

al marijuana use, we will start to see big systems (vehicles, warehouses, packaging) Specialized Cannabis CRM As the cannabis industry grows, its short-
commercial beverage companies launching or else use specially-licensed third-party Platforms age of financial services is causing a strain.
new sparkling waters and non-alcoholic vendors. That latter category is catalyzing The legal cannabis market could be worth
Unlike traditional CRM or customer data-
drinks infused with CBD, the non- (or less) new business growth. Local dispensaries $29 billion by 2025, according to research
bases, marketers in the cannabis space
psychoactive component of marijuana that are supporting startups that can take firm New Frontier Data. Some in the cryp-
have additional regulations to contend with.
is allegedly capable of reducing pain with- orders, authenticate users, and ensure tocurrency market think that blockchain
Baker is an automation platform that caters
out getting you high. There is also plenty of safe and legal delivery to consumers. Eaze technology could provide the industry with
to dispensaries, combining e-commerce,
research into cannabis-infused alcoholic and GreenRush are the biggest players in an alternative commerce system. The hope
distribution, inventory management, tex-
beverages, teas to help you relax and to medical marijuana delivery. In 2019, Wayv, would be for customers to pay for cannabis
ting, and loyalty programs.
sleep, and sports drinks to aid athletes in a B2B cannabis logistics firm, launched its products at a kiosk using cryptocurrency
faster post-workout recovery. Constellation Dynamic Distribution platform, which helps rather than cash.
Brands, which makes Corona beer, and La- companies list themselves as third-party Banking for Cannabis
gunitas (a subsidiary of Heineken), are both distributors for other brands, and auto- Dispensaries Digital Makeup
investing in new techniques to infuse their matically runs compliance checks. This will Banking is a big hurdle for dispensaries and Beauty, science, and technology have always
products with CBD. enable cannabis brands to move products their parent companies in the U.S. Visa and been intertwined. Hundreds of years ago in
within their states more easily. MasterCard can’t work with the cannabis Japan, geisha formulated a makeup base
Cannabis Supply Chains industry because that would expose the using wax from local trees. (To be fair, it was
Cannabis supply chain logistics is challeng- Cannabis Compliance Systems financial institutions to the risk of federal also made from harmful lead.) Chalk-white
prosecution. However the SAFT Banking
ing. Because of federal laws, the largest With the industry heavily regulated, it can faces, necks and forearms were in vogue. In
Act, which would make banking more
logistics companies—Amazon, Fedex, be difficult for dispensary companies with the 1920s, makeup artist Helena Rubinstein
available to the cannabis industry, passed
and UPS—cannot legally service vendors. business units located in different states to experimented with kohl to invent mascara
the House of Representatives in October
It’s complicated: Cannabis brands must keep track of compliance. New A.I.-powered for the silver screen, which set off a new
2019—but the bill was then held up by Senate
become their own first party distributor platforms are helping dispensaries meet trend in long, jet-black eyelashes. Today,
Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo
and must own all of their own logistics these sometimes complex compliance artificial intelligence, augmented reality,
(R-Idaho), who as of February 3, 2020 hadn’t
regulations. and smart cameras are converging at an
yet advanced the Senate version of the bill. interesting moment in time: We are under
133
Vices cont.
continual surveillance and many of us are trol and Prevention confirmed 64 deaths in popular, while natural supplements like cre- triangular device that you stick on to your
striving to look our best. In China, many the U.S. from vaping-related illnesses. The atine, L-theanine and Bacopa monnieri are head—as well as a mobile app synced you
people now use facial recognition to pay for majority of people who got sick were using also being marketed to help promote mental to your smartphone. It delivers low-grade
everything from groceries to taxi cabs. It black market or modified e-liquids or prod- clarity, focus, and information retention. electric pulses to influence either your
isn’t privacy that has many Chinese people ucts that contained tetrahydrocannabinol Synthetic compounds, like Adrafinil and sympathetic (fight or flight) or your parasym-
concerned, but rather how they look in all (THC). A new federal law raised the legal age Noopept, last longer and take effect within pathetic (rest and digest) nervous system.
of the next-gen pay-by-face apps. A poll by to buy tobacco products in the U.S. from 18 minutes. By some analyst estimates, the Of course, this same technology can be used
Chinese news organization Sina Technology to 21, and the Food and Drug Administration nootropic market could reach $11 billion in for nefarious purposes. In China, the military
revealed that 60% of those who use facial banned most flavored e-cigs. Juul Labs, America alone by 2024. and some businesses now use connected
recognition for payments feel self-con- which dominates the e-cig market and is headbands and hats to monitor employee
scious about how they look and would prefer largely blamed for America’s vaping epi- Neuroenhancers brain activity. This emotional surveillance
a system of payment that is more flattering. demic, voluntarily discontinued its flavored technology is said to optimize productivity—
Neuroenhancer devices aim to record brain
In response, payment giants like Alipay— products, with the exception of tobacco and State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power, based in
waves and send feedback. Some promise
that’s Alibaba’s e-wallet subsidiary, which menthol flavors. Many competing brands Hangzhou, reported its profits spiked $315
to help you become more productive, while
counts more than a billion monthly active including Puff, blu, Posh, and Stig, now pro- million since using neuroenhancer devices
others are meant to boost your mood.
users—are building in beauty filters to their duce pre-charged, pre-filled vaping devices, and software to mine, refine, and analyze
Australia-based SmartCap uses a tracking
systems. This could have a reverberating and they’re cheaper than Juul pods. employee brain data.
system with voice warnings and vibrations
effect as more digital payment companies
to keep you alert while on the job. The
enter the marketplace and competition for Nootropics Muse headband uses neurofeedback to
market share heats up. Consumers might be
If you need to manage stress or focus, help manage stress and improve athletic
willing to pay higher transaction fees in ex-
you might look to “nootropics,” cognitive performance. The Emotiv Epoc+ and Emotiv
change for looking great (or at least avoiding
enhancement drugs that promise to help Insight and mobile EEG devices monitor your
looking bad) while they make purchases.
keep you calm and attentive. These dietary brain activity and analyze cognitive perfor-
supplements have been shown to improve mance. Doppel, which is worn on the wrist,
Vaping and E-cigarettes cognitive function—even if they’re not uses electric pulses to augment your energy.
Last year was terrible for the electronic cig- officially regulated or approved by the FDA. The pulsations, which you dial in based on
arette industry, and worse for the hundreds You may already be taking a few: caffeine, your needs, are supposed to have an effect
Bulletproof makes neuroenhancing
of people who became very ill after using red reishi mushrooms, ginseng, turmeric, on your brain similar to that of music. The
supplements.
the devices. The Centers for Disease Con- ginkgo biloba, and Bulletproof coffee are all Thync Kit is a series of electrodes and a

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Digital Addiction
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight May 2019, making it one of the few be- The Impact
havioral health addictions to gain formal
The notion that gaming, apps, and other Every business model for media hinges on
recognition. In the tech realm, companies
digital products can interfere with a per- commanding the attention of an audience.
are responding with design changes to
son’s day-to-day life used to be a punchline. As social attitudes toward technology shift,
reinforce healthy device use. Instagram
Now the idea is broadly accepted—even product designers should be mindful that
experimented with removing public like
Facebook’s internal research team has they’re not perceived as eliciting detrimen-
counts to discourage users from comparing
acknowledged that passively consuming tal behavior or harming the physical and
themselves to others. Several startups are
information can be linked to feeling badly. mental health of their users.
pursuing mini-smartphones designed with
Why it Matters smaller screens and stripped down inter- Watchlist
faces to encourage users to look at their de-
In 2019, digital addiction became a Digital products rely on habit-forming Amazon, Apple, Common Sense, Center for
vices less often. Google and Apple continue
classified disorder. features for success, but a growing body of Humane Technology, Facebook, Instagram,
to develop features that help users monitor
research highlights the negative impacts Google, Palm, TikTok, Twitch, Twitter, World
their digital well-being and “screen time.”
that those sticky features can have on Health Organization, gaming consoles and
mental health and well-being. Some new What’s Next systems.
products aim to find a technical solution to
As concern about digital addiction increases,
digital addiction.
consumers will become less tolerant of so-
Examples called “dark patterns” that use psychological
cues to induce greater consumption. Before
The World Health Organization added
launching habit-forming features, teams
gaming disorder to the next edition of the
should stop and consider how the product
International Classification of Diseases in
could cause harm or be purposefully abused.
135
Sextech Trends
 Q&A ON SEXTECH
It’s been an interesting few years for the sex tech industry. In 2019, the Consumer Electron- areas, including home automation, health technologies, artificial intelligence, recognition,
ics Show awarded its prestigious CES Innovation Prize in the robotics and drone category security, and privacy.
to Ose, a prototype of a robotic, hands-free vibrator developed in part by Oregon State The Future Today Institute invited Cindy to share some of the emerging sex tech trends on
University’s robotics and engineering lab. But when lead designer Lora Haddock DiCarlo her radar, and to describe how the future of the market and industry will be shaped.
showed up to her booth at CES, she learned that the Ose had suddenly been disqualified for
being “profane,” “obscene,” and “immoral.” There was backlash, boycotting, public outcry, a Cindy Gallop: As I regularly point out, the three huge disruption opportunities in tech today
media blitz, and, eventually, some measure of redemption. In January 2020, CES devoted an are sex, cannabis and the blockchain - yet ironically, investors are flocking to the other two
exhibition area to sex tech, and a dozen companies showed up to display their innovations. categories more than the first. This is a world that has operated through a patriarchal lens
for far too long, which is why sex toys have been phallic shaped. We as women have never
The sex tech industry still has walls to break down—we’re not comfortable as a society been permitted to bring our lens to bear on human sexuality, and the world is a poorer place
talking about sex and sexuality. But Cindy Gallop, a longtime advertising executive and for it. Female sextech founders are changing that. Ti Chang founded Crave, which makes
famed former U.S. president of the global creative agency Bartle Bogle Hegarty, thinks gorgeous vibrators that can be worn around your neck. They’re jewelry—pendants that
it’s a mistake to ignore the market potential of sex tech. In 2009, she shared her idea for can be charged via USB. They also now make rings. The real innovation is in female-lens
the future of sex on the main TED stage, originally as a public service website called “Porn vision, which goes far beyond the staid male-lens belief that sex toys have to be humanoid
World vs Real World.” A positive global response led to the founding of MakeLoveNotPorn, or robots. Female-founded sextech doesn't need to depend on the male anatomy to bring
the first user-generated, human-curated video sharing platform designed to promote disruptive approaches to pleasure.
consent, communication, good sexual values and healthy sexual behavior. She also started
the world’s first sex tech venture fund, AllTheSkyHoldings. As Cindy explains, despite our Nobody is building or funding the Comscore of sex, yet data is a huge trend. And not just in
squeamishness talking about sex, the market is worth an estimated $30 billion. And Stra- the areas of teledicdonics and virtual reality sex. Yes, there are toys and vibrators that can
tistics, a market research firm, thinks that number is about to skyrocket—it estimates the be remotely controlled by long-distance partners using mobile apps, and artificial intelli-
industry could be worth $123 billion by 2026. gence comes into play too. For example, the Lioness tracks data in order to improve orgasm
over time. In that arena, MLNP is an utterly unique data resource, because we capture no
So why aren’t we hearing more about sextech? Blame the algorithms. Some people would personal data, and we are able to provide aggregated, de-identified insights into the overall
be embarrassed to see a sextech ad show up in their Facebook feed or on a website at work, full spectrum of human sexuality.
which is why Google and Facebook, the world’s largest digital advertising platforms, restrict
such advertising. But we are at the beginning of a shift, which some think will bring inclusiv- Sextech is becoming more complicated to use. LELO once sent a special black and gold
ity, awareness, and acceptance. The future of sex tech will help shape adjacent tech trend TIANI couples massager, and I opened the box, looked at the beautiful object and found

myself asking how I was supposed to use it. There were no instructions in the box beyond a
one-pager that explained how to charge it. So I went to YouTube and found a video desper-
ate to be safe for work featuring a “Stepford Woman” describing how to use the massager,
which was impossible to understand. You can design the most cutting-edge sex toy in the
universe, but if a couple can't bring themselves to talk to each other about their sex life,
they'll never buy and use it.
Which brings me to the most important, if overlooked trend: Socially acceptable sex is an
area of big growth. The money to be made out of socially acceptable sex! Normalizing sex
makes it easier for everyone to openly promote consent, communication, good sexual lives
and good sexual behavior. A million people visited MakeLoveNotPorn.tv last year, which tells
you something about the market potential for socially acceptable sex.
CINDY GALLOP, FOUNDER AND

– As told to the Future Today Institute
CEO OF IfWeRanTheWorld AND
MakeLoveNotPorn AND FOUNDER
OF AllTheSkyHoldings
137
11 Journalism
Continued Media
140
Consolidation
141 The Subscription
Economy Matures
142 Optimizing for New
Types of Search
143 Investigating
the Algorithms
144 Journalism as a Service
145 One-To-Few Publishing
146 Popup Newsrooms
and Limited-Edition
News Products
Demands for
148
Accountability
and Trust
149 The First Amendment
in a Digital Age
139
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Continued Media Consolidation
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Just weeks after Gannett defended itself Management acquired a controlling share. Watchlist
from a hostile takeover bid from Digital First (FCC rules on cross-ownership only apply to
Consolidation continues as regulations shift Asahi Shimbun Company, AT&T, CBS, Cen-
Media, Gannett and Gatehouse Media—the newspapers that publish four or more times
in the U.S. and margins shrink for traditional ter for Innovation and Sustainability In Local
two biggest newspaper publishers in the per week).
media companies. As ownership concen- Media at the University of North Carolina
United States—announced plans to merge.
trates into a handful of conglomerates, What’s Next at Chapel Hill, Comcast, Cox Media Group,
Alden Global Capital, a hedge fund that
historic norms about diversity in the press Digital First Media, Disney, FCC, Gannett,
owns a chain of newspapers under the name FCC Chair Ajit Pai’s push to deregulate has
and on the airwaves are challenged. Grupo Globo, Hearst, Hubert Burda Media,
Media News Group, became the largest accelerated the pace—and the corporate
ITU, local access channels, Meredith Corp,
Why It Matters shareholder in Tribune Publishing, an Amer- benefits—of consolidation. More recent FCC
Microsoft, News Corp, Nexstar, Sinclair
ican newspaper publisher, in September. votes may have a more immediate impact
Legacy news publishers will continue to Broadcast Group, Univision, news organiza-
U.S. telecommunications firm Nexstar on the local news landscape and corporate
face intense merger pressure this year. tions everywhere.
acquired Tribune Local Media in Septem- profits: At the FCC’s August meeting, the
Examples ber, creating the largest operator of local Republican-appointed majority voted to
television stations in the country. That deal limit the ability of municipalities to assess
Last year saw the completion of mega
required Nexstar to divest from 21 stations “franchise fees” that support local access
deals that were years in the making: CBS
in order to comply with Federal Communi- TV stations and other community ser-
and Viacom spent much of the year flirting
cation Commission regulations about media vices. The new rule will likely boost profits
before coming to terms and finalizing their
ownership. for internet service providers and reduce
reunion in December. Disney and Fox com-
the capacity for publicly-funded media to
pleted their merger in March, a deal so large The extent of media concentration means
compete.
it shifted control of Hulu. An appeals court those FCC regulations have started to pro-
gave final clearance for AT&T’s acquisition duce counter-intuitive outcomes: In Ohio, The Impact
of Warner Media in February, rejecting the three daily newspapers owned by Cox Media
Media consolidation affects governments,
Justice Department’s argument that the Group changed their publication schedule
businesses and citizens everywhere. In January 2020, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire
deal was anti-competitive. to three days per week after Apollo Global
Hathaway sold its newspaper holdings for
$140 million to Lee Enterprises.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
The Subscription Economy Matures
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Launching a subscription or membership What’s Next

program is relatively easy. Keeping your
Whether you call it a subscription, a mem- Look for more services that monitor—and
subscribers is harder: A report from sub-
bership or a donation, we’re living in the age cancel—unused subscriptions or free trials,
scription service platform Zuora estimated
of audience revenue. For media compa- such as True Bill and Free Trial Card. In
an average annualized churn rate of nearly
nies—news outlets especially—that means California, companies selling subscriptions
34% for media business, the highest of any
business incentives may soon align what must now offer a clear way to cancel them
sector studied. Churn isn’t just a legacy me-
consumers want. online, thanks to California Senate Bill No.
dia problem, though: on-demand streaming
313, which went into effect in July 2019.
Why It Matters services suffer higher churn rates than
News Corp launched its Knewz aggregation
news media, according to estimates cited The Impact
platform in January 2020. The risk is that the propagation of subscrip-
by The Information.
tions will overwhelm audiences’ willingness Watch for consumers to become more dis-
(or ability) to pay. July marked the first time that Netflix criminating in their choice of subscriptions
reported a loss in domestic subscribers, as more companies compete for a fixed
Examples and the streaming service has reported flat share of wallet. For publishers, that means
numbers in the U.S. since then. The plat- a focus on improving subscriber retention,
Everywhere you look, a new subscription
form is still expected to grow internationally, not just recruiting lots of new users.
product is launching: Disney+ and Apple TV
but the lesson about saturation is important
joined the crowded streaming subscription
landscape last year. Conde Nast announced
for anyone pursuing a subscription model, Watchlist
especially niche and local publishers. The
in January 2019 that it was putting all of its Apple TV, Conde Nast, Disney+, Bean, Do
Los Angeles Times sought to double its
magazine websites—historically ad support- Not Pay, Free Trial Card, Knewz, Netflix,
digital subscriber base to 300,000 in 2019,
ed—behind a paywall. Local newspapers are Membership Puzzle Project, Scroll, True Bill,
according to a memo leaked in July. While
pushing to launch new subscriptions or to news organizations and media worldwide.
the Times was able to add more than 50,000
refine existing offerings. And it’s not just in
new subscribers, its net growth was only
media: There are subscription services for
13,000 because of churn.
toothbrushes (Quip), “ugly” discount vegeta-
bles (Misfits Market) and probiotics (Seed).
141
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Optimizing for New Types of Search
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight processing to understand its contents, con- What’s Next The Impact
textualize it and make it all searchable.
As voice interfaces proliferate in people’s Voice Search Optimization (VSO) is the new Searches based on conversation or what a
lives, publishers and other organizations face At the same time, the line between Search Engine Optimization (SEO). Compa- user is looking at will be highly contextual,
a new strategic consideration: Is our content old-fashioned web pages and audio content nies will need to consider how their content requiring sophisticated algorithms to antic-
optimized for voice search? And, looking is blurring. New markup tools let publishers is delivered via conversational interfaces. ipate the intent of a query and the relevancy
further into the future, how should we index help machines (like voice assistant A.I.s) As VSO catches on, we may see marketers of results.
our content for future forms of interaction? “read” written content and translate it into and publishers attempt to outsmart voice
spoken audio. Google recently released a search algorithms with black hat trickery. Watchlist
Why It Matters structured data markup called Speakable The algorithms will need to adapt accord- Amazon, Apple, Audioburst, Facebook,
Most people still find the majority of infor- that publishers can use to optimize their ingly, deterring manipulation of search Google, Listen Notes, Spoken Layer, Trint,
mation they consume through search. content by marking up sections of news optimization without docking legitimate and marketing and news organizations
articles and optimize them to be read aloud content sources (a challenge we’ve seen everywhere.
Examples by Google’s smart assistant. (The specifica- play out before on the pre-voice web).
tions are listed on Schema.org.)
A number of companies are racing to index Spatial computing is in its infancy today, but
podcasts, radio shows and music, just as The ultimate goal is to deliver a seamless it will raise similarly complex questions for
Google has done so for traditional, text- experience when a user asks their digital creators. In the future, consumers might
based web content. Companies like Trint assistant: “Tell me the news.” For now, expect to be served stories that are relevant
help publishers transcribe audio to make a cottage industry of new formats and to what they are looking at through smart
it more searchable by traditional crawlers, distributors is growing to bridge the gap glasses. Do today’s content management
while other startups like Audioburst are between what newsrooms produce today systems support the kinds of indexing that
trying to use technology to actually “listen” and native programming that fits the syntax anticipate that technology?
to data previously locked into a waveform of spoken interaction. The startup Spo-
and make these units of audio more navi- ken Layer and pilot partnerships between
The more we interact with computers, the
gable. Audioburst’s technology ingests and Google and select news organizations are
more companies will need to optimize for
analyzes audio and uses natural language taking on this challenge. new types of searches.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Investigating the Algorithms
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight tools to help others investigate how data is responsibilities for journalists who wish to
being used by third parties. hold powerful systems accountable.
News organizations must do better at
explaining how algorithms and big data Last year, the New York Times opinion team
The Impact
shape our world. To hold artificial intel- launched the Privacy Project, a series that
explains how firms amass incredibly precise Dedicating resources to investigating
ligence-powered systems accountable,
location data from nearly every smart phone. algorithms has never been more important
reporters will need the technical skills to
(The series culminated in December.) That than it is right now, as we all seek to gain a
unpack how algorithms function and explain
analysis would not have been possible with- better understanding of new technological
that process to a non-technical audience.
out blending multiple disciplines: process- systems with immense influential power.
Why It Matters ing geospatial information, tracing internet
Journalists are starting to investigate the Watchlist
algorithms and sources of data that com- With the increased use of data and algo- traffic, explaining technical concepts and, of
course, developing a source willing to leak Computational Journalism Lab at North-
panies are using. rithms powering our everyday lives, new
an incredibly valuable dataset. western University, The New York Times,
teams are being deployed to investigate
The Markup, ProPublica, Tow Center for
algorithms and the companies using them.
What’s Next Digital Journalism at Columbia University,
Examples News organizations must train their report- The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post
ers to broaden their techniques. As tech- computational journalism team (led by Jere-
The Washington Post and The Wall Street
nology advances, it is harder for laypeople my Bowers).
Journal both launched teams of reporters
with computer science skills last year. The to understand how systems function—even
Markup, a startup funded by Craig Newmark as those systems become more deeply
Philanthropies and populated with alumni embedded in the fabric of our society.
from ProPublica and other newsrooms, is Understanding where information comes
set to start publishing this year. The Markup from, how it spreads and the impact it has—
aims to explore the societal impacts of big not to mention explaining the outcomes of
tech and algorithms and plans to release algorithmic decision-making—are central
143
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Journalism as a Service
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight organized and processed (like a regularly The Impact

updated database of payments by pharma-
“Software as a Service” is a licensing and Journalism as a Service models are provid-
ceutical providers to doctors). Transitioning
delivery model, in which users pay for on-de- ing much-needed revenue to cash-strapped
to “Journalism as a Service” enables news
mand access. “Journalism as a Service” lets news organizations.
organizations to fully realize their value to
news organizations sell on-demand access
everyone working in the knowledge econo- Watchlist
to the components of their reporting, rather
my—universities, legal startups, data science
than just the finished product. The Coral Project, The Information, MIT
companies, businesses, hospitals, and even
Media Lab, ProPublica, PRX, REDEF Group,
Why It Matters big tech. News organizations that archive
Twilio.
ProPublica offers APIs and other services their content sit on an enormous corpus—
to developers who want to build apps. On the fringes, news organizations are
data that can be structured, cleaned and
beginning to provide journalism as a service
used by numerous other groups.
in addition to traditional news products,
allowing outside parties to avail themselves What’s Next
of the organization's functional resources
News deployed as a service includes dif-
and assets—for a price.
ferent kinds of parcels: news stories; APIs;
Examples databases that can be used by both the
newsroom and paying third parties; calendar
ProPublica’s data store launched as an
plug-ins for upcoming news events; systems
experiment in 2014. Two years later, the idea
that can automatically generate reports
had generated more than $200,000 for the
using the news org’s archives and databas-
non-profit newsroom. The store includes
es, and so on. Services work outside of the
free, open source data products (like Pro-
social media landscape, relieving news or-
Publica’s API for accessing information about
ganizations of revenue sharing and allowing
Congress) and paid products that have been
them to fully monetize their services.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
One-To-Few Publishing
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight campaign for a new idea. Venture capital What’s Next
firm Andreessen Horowitz announced in
Newsletters, podcasts and niche networks Tight-knit communities will become stron-
July that it would invest in Substack, sug-
can captivate and connect with small, loyal ger as Facebook emphasizes private groups
gesting we may see accelerated investment
audiences. Those products thrive on their and as micro-influencers gain credibility.
in the space.
authenticity, helping them to fundraise or to Informal networks like WhatsApp groups
deliver a curated cohort to advertisers. Not all niche networks are high-tech: In satisfy a basic human need to connect, but
June, Wired reported about the role of risk further isolating niche communities by
Why It Matters conference calls in spreading anti-vax pro- amplifying a group’s beliefs whether or not
Small networks can be uniquely valuable paganda in ultra-Orthodox Jewish commu- they are accurate.
because of their dedicated fanbase—but nities in Brooklyn. In a community that gen-
they can also be dangerous: trusted net- erally distrusts outside influences and the The Impact
Judd Legum publishes a popular paid
works can spread misinformation that goes internet, the recorded conference calls had Major media companies have an opportu-
newsletter on Substack.
unchecked. credibility because they were facilitated by nity to develop audiences around specific
a member of the community. That’s a similar columnists or reporters, but it’s uncertain
Examples challenge to the one faced by WhatsApp in how that might successfully scale.
2018, when rumors about child kidnapping
It’s easier than ever to start a newsletter
or a podcast and get paid for your work. Ser-
spread quickly in rural India via the mes- Watchlist
saging service, leading to a series of mob
vices like Substack and Revue offer tools Auphonic, Garage Band, Iterable, Kickstart-
lynchings. Despite efforts by WhatsApp to
to launch a subscription newsletter, while er, Libsyn, Mailchimp, Patreon, PRI, PRX,
limit the number of times a message can be
platforms like Patreon make it easy to col- RadioPublic, Revue, Signal, Skype, Sound-
forwarded, the proliferation of viral rumors
lect recurring payments for various forms of Cloud, Sounderfm, SpeakPipe, Square,
on the platform persist: WhatsApp was a
creation. There’s evidence that people are Stitcher, Substack, Telegram, TinyLetter,
major source for disinformation during the
willing to pay for highly specialized me- Twilio, WhatsApp.
2019 Nigerian general election.
dia, whether it’s paying gamers for Twitch
streams or contributing to a Kickstarter
145
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Popup Newsrooms and Limited-Edition
STRATEGY NOW
News Products REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight groups like the International Consortium of The Impact

Investigative Journalists work together to
News organizations are using pop-up News organizations that launch limited-run
build scoops across borders.
newsrooms and limited-edition products news products will increasingly have spe-
to achieve strategic goals. Collaborative In March 2019, BuzzFeed distributed a single cific subscriber engagement goals; these
newsrooms can focus on a single topic or day print edition in New York. The move tools could also be used to collect first-par-
project, boosting reach and helping uncover was a stunt, but it generated a stream of ty data for targeted ad sales.
deeper stories. engagement online. At subscription-driven
publications, limited-run projects can be an Watchlist
Electionland is a coalition of newsrooms Why It Matters opportunity to deliver additional subscriber
around the country that are covering mis- News organizations everywhere.
Limited-run podcasts, newsletters and benefits or to develop a new audience. The
information, cybersecurity, and problems
event series identify engaged readers and New York Times Magazine’s 1619 Project
that prevent eligible voters from casting
help test new ideas. was a collaboration with the Smithsonian
their ballots during the 2020 elections.
Institute that included a limited-run pod-
Examples cast, special issue of the magazine, reader
interaction and live events on the history
During the 2016 and 2018 elections, the
and legacy of slavery in the United States.
Electionland coalition brought together
more than 1,000 journalists across the Unit-
What’s Next
ed States to cover problems that prevent
eligible voters from casting a ballot. The We expect to see a flurry of collaboration
project provided a structure for seeking surrounding the 2020 presidential primary
out stories on social media and ensuring and general election, building on initiatives
those stories were covered. More regularly, like the Electionland coalition.

SCENARIOS • SAM GUZIK
Funding a Vibrant Meet the New Business The Audience Can’t

Media Landscape Model, Same as the Old Afford to Pay
Business Model
NEAR-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO NEAR-FUTURE PRAGMATIC SCENARIO NEAR-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
Local news is on a growth trajectory. Audience Yesterday you were a subscriber to your local As subscriptions become the default format
revenue funds much of the news operation, newspaper; today you are a member. Not much for consuming news, entertainment and daily
but it’s only one of multiple revenue streams has changed, though: You get regular, person- essentials, consumers must make hard choic-
for most publishers. The most successful al email updates from reporters and editors es about how to spend their money and time.
outlets are thriving because they invested not (and sometimes you even read them!). There’s Churn increases for all subscription products,
only in their newsrooms but also in experi- a “Local Deals” section in the newspaper’s but local news outlets are hit particularly hard
mental projects that opened up new lines of online “Member Center,” but you’ve only visited because their potential subscriber base is
business. Those ventures were fueled by close the page once. Even though you don’t read a geographically limited. The decision to go “all
collaboration between newsroom and busi- full article every day (or even every week), you in” on audience revenue seems like a great
ness teams; most often, they relied on input feel like you get value from the push notifica- idea on paper, but pushes outlets with few
from across the organizational structure, not tions sent directly to your phone. Most of your options to pivot as the competitive landscape
just leadership. friends aren’t members—they hear the news shifts. Publishers fail to anticipate the extent
from you or visit the paper’s website once or that non-media subscriptions eat up consum-
twice a year. There are enough people like you, ers’ budgets. Newspapers and websites in
however, that the paper is stable. The news- large cities and dense suburbs have a critical
room isn’t as big as it once was, but its leader- mass of folks willing to pay, but constantly
ship has successfully struck a delicate bal- fight to maintain their revenue, because a
ance: Asking for more money from members, substantial portion of their audience is en-
but still maintaining an audience large enough ticed with introductory offers and sales. Rural
to be valuable to advertisers. areas and small cities increasingly become
news deserts because they lack the population
density to raise enough subscription revenue
to support a newsroom.
147
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Demands for Accountability and Trust
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Twitter bots that were intentionally spread- The Impact
ing misinformation on the platform. Along
The spread of misinformation will contin- Fake or misleading news itself is a problem.
with this transparency about the presence
ue until platforms and news organizations But it’s also making people less likely to seek
of these bots, Twitter removed them and
adopt norms and standards for accountabil- out quality information.
also promised not to accept sponsored
ity and trust.
posts from known rogue actors (state or Watchlist
Why It Matters otherwise).
Platforms and news organizations every-
Last year, American trust in media declined. What’s Next where.
In 2019, doctored videos of Representative According to a Pew Research Center poll,
Nancy Pelosi spread virally on Facebook There is no clear financial incentive for plat-
roughly 30% of Republicans and Republi-
and Twitter. forms or news organizations to use a stan-
can-leaning independents said that journal-
dardized system to prove a piece of content’s
ists have “very low” ethical standards.
authenticity. Lawmakers have hesitated to
Examples propose legislation that would curb speech,
however it’s an election year and we’re likely
A healthy dose of skepticism makes for a
to be flooded with malicious content. As
strong electorate. But deepfakes, inten-
platforms come under increased scrutiny
tionally misleading stories, and salacious
this year for issues related to antitrust, we
content posted by political operatives, hack-
expect to see demands for transparency
ers, and foreign governments have led to
and traceability. Just as supply chains are
increased calls for new methods to rebuild
inspected to ensure they’re secure, in the fu-
our trust in the media.
ture we could see new blockchain-powered
In August 2019, Twitter finally published supply chains for information.
a blog post exposing a series of Chinese

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
The First Amendment in a Digital Age
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight social media platforms—but other states behavior identify itself. The Electronic images are legally protected speech. And
only prevent the government from regulat- Frontier Foundation and others worried there will be much murkier debates about
The First Amendment shapes how Silicon
ing speech, allowing private entities to do as that an earlier version of the bill would have what “should” be published.
Valley thinks about the design, development
they please. gone too far in stifling speech because of
and implications of technology. Its legal The Impact
careless definitions of the technology.
protections are broad in scope but limited A significant case in July 2019 clarified
Twitter’s status as a public forum—and how While the First Amendment's protections Paying customers will naturally be more
in geography; they only apply in the United
the First Amendment applies on the plat- in the U.S. are generally broad, its scope invested in decisions made by the orga-
States.
form. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals is limited in an interconnected world: nization, and those choices — whether it's
Why It Matters affirmed a lower court ruling in July that Facebook has little legal exposure in the sharing or withholding a fact, opinion or
President Donald Trump could not block U.S. because of the intersection of First photo — may only fuel the debate.
Publishers and platforms will increasingly
need to consider how different expectations followers on Twitter. The three-judge panel Amendment rights and protections from
Watchlist
of free speech inform their operations. held that "the First Amendment does not Section 230 of the Communication Decency
permit a public official…to exclude persons Act, but it could be liable under Germany’s American Civil Liberties Union, Electronic
Examples from an otherwise‐open online dialogue hate speech laws. Even in the offline world Frontier Foundation, European Union, Fed-
because they expressed views with which there is no global understanding of how to eral Communications Commission, Federal
Constitutional law often lags behind tech-
the official disagrees.” protect “free speech,” and that makes defin- Trade Commission, Knight First Amend-
nology, taking time to adapt and evolve
ing online rights even harder. ment Institute at Columbia University, U.S.
as historic concepts are applied to new The ruling is a major step toward defining
Supreme Court.
situations. Although social media has been the rules of engagement for free speech
What’s Next
a central part of our political conversation, on the internet. But there are still deep,
courts are only now starting to specifically unresolved questions. For example, does Debates about the First Amendment boil
consider how our rights apply online. State the First Amendment protect bots or other down to what “can” be said. Expect more
courts in New Jersey recognize that speech synthetic media? A California law went decisions that wrestle with clarifying what
cannot be abridged by “restrictive and into effect in July requiring that any bot is a public forum in the public sphere and
oppressive conduct by private entities”—like that tries to influence purchasing or voting whether A.I.-generated text, video and
149
12 Censorship
152 The Proliferation
of Splinternets
154 Content Moderation
in the Name of National
Security
156 Digitally Retouching
History
151
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
The Proliferation of Splinternets
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight during widespread riots in Xinjiang in 2009,

China has completely shut down access to
The founding promise of the digital world
the internet. China’s leadership believes its
was broad connectivity where information
restrictive model contributes to stability—
could flow freely. But as some governments
and is open to exporting that approach to
take steps to filter (or completely block) ac-
the rest of the world. “We should respect the
cess to the internet, and paid subscription
right of individual countries to independent-
models make access to reliable information
ly choose their own path of cyber-develop-
a luxury, we now have a splintered internet
ment,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping at
rather than a single world wide web.
China’s second World Internet Conference
Why It Matters in 2015.
Twenty years ago, the internet emerged as a In 2019, we saw ample signs of nations
global space where information was shared learning from the Chinese playbook: There
freely. Now, everyone has a different idea were nearly 130 documented internet shut-
of how our global information superhighway downs in 29 countries between January and
ought to be regulated, and by whom. July 2019, according to the advocacy group
The future of the internet is fractured. Access Now. Those include a shutdown in
Examples the Democratic Republic of the Congo after
an alleged election hijacking effort, and
Nation-scale internet censorship is most
India’s internet blackout in Kashmir—the
closely associated with China’s “great
longest ever in a democracy.
firewall.” The Chinese government aggres-
sively monitors the internet and removes Splinternets—the various versions of a now
information that doesn’t meet its political fractured internet—aren’t just the product
standards. At times of political unrest, as of blocking free access to the internet;

sometimes it's enough to simply increase cannot afford new ‘skins,’ because then their will become increasingly relevant. If ten-
the barriers to finding reliable information. friends see them as poor.” sions between the U.S. and China continue,
Those can be technical roadblocks—as in there’s a risk that components built with
a censorship regime that doesn’t remove What’s Next American technology will not be compati-
websites, but knows the average user won’t For governments dealing with social unrest, ble with those built by Chinese firms. That
have the knowledge or time to connect the playbook increasingly includes trying to could embed the fracturing of the web at a
through a VPN to reach unfiltered informa- disrupt the digital tools activists use to or- hardware level, making it more difficult to
tion—or they can be financial ones. ganize. If it becomes clear that leaders can combat in the future.
Even in nations with unrestricted internet follow that playbook with impunity, expect
it to be increasingly adopted by democratic Watchlist
access, the business model for many online
creators is shifting to paid subscriptions. governments. Access Now, China’s government, Freedom
Creators deserve to be paid for their work, Mitigating the impacts of political and House, Software Freedom Law Centre
but we haven’t begun to wrestle with the financial splinternets will require coming to (India).
implications of a media ecosystem in which a broad, international consensus about how
the wealthy can afford to consume the human rights apply in a digital age: Is there
news and entertainment they wish, and a fundamental human right to connect free-
others cannot. We’re already starting to see ly? Is blocking access to the internet a war
evidence of this classist dynamic in online crime? If a video, meme, or report is illegal
gaming: “Children are scorned in games in one country but protected in another,
such as Fortnite if they are seen to wear the how should ISPs respond?
‘default skin’ (the free avatar they receive
at the start of the game),” a report by the The Impact
Children’s Commissioner of the U.K. found. As nations start to implement 5G infrastruc-
“Children say they feel embarrassed if they ture, questions of network interoperability
153
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Content Moderation in the
STRATEGY NOW
Name of National Security REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight of security and morality. After the advent

of the printing press, the Catholic Church
It may seem counterintuitive, given that
started publishing a list of prohibited books
there is so much talk of regulating big tech,
in 1559. This practice continued until 1966.
but government agencies worldwide expect
With the internet age, content moderation
tech companies to help fight against the
has become a larger technical challenge not
spread of misinformation, propaganda and
just for governments and institutions, but
terrorism.
for media and tech companies as well.
Why It Matters Throughout 2018 and 2019, both the U.S. and
Content moderation and policing efforts European governments held several heated
are being met with resistance from free public hearings with representatives from
speech advocates from across the political Twitter, Google and Facebook in the wake
spectrum. Content surveillance and moder- of controversial elections and increasingly
ation will be ever important battlegrounds polarized public discourse. Tech companies
around the world for states, companies and are inconsistent at best when it comes to
individuals. enforcing “community standards” of content
Gab raised more than $1 million in crowdfunding. moderation and of free or acceptable
Examples speech. Tech companies are struggling to
design algorithms that identify and censor
Content moderation is a critical consid-
offensive and dangerous content such as
eration in the design and development of
pornography and misinformation while pro-
online platforms, and requires decisions
tecting the right to personal expression.
about the legal protections afforded to
creators and users of technology. Through- Gab, a social network that champions free
out history, governments have restricted speech, launched in 2017 mostly in response
content and its distribution in the name to the suspension of the high-profile ac-

counts of controversial personalities such don’t extend beyond human-produced Watchlist
as Milo Yiannopoulos and Alex Jones on speech. Down the road, certain content
Amazon, Apple, Electronic Frontier Foun-
Twitter and Facebook. While Gab doesn’t produced via future technological advances
dation, European Union, Facebook, Federal
have the network effect of mainstream wouldn’t be protected either. But it’s unlikely
Communications Commission, Google,
players, expect to see more services like this would happen, because humans are
Instagram, Gab, law enforcement, legal
it as content moderation policies become involved in programming bots. Another
scholars, media organizations, Microsoft,
more strictly enforced. potential outcome: human programmers
Moritz College of Law, technology and priva-
are protected under the First Amendment,
What’s Next cy advocates, technology company leaders,
but A.I.-created speech is not. This makes
Ohio State University, Twitch, YouTube.
Lawmakers and tech companies alike sense at some level, but it could fall short
struggle with balancing tensions between when giving credit or blame to content
censorship, free enterprise, and national created by a human, versus A.I. technology.
security. The questions—and answers—are Or, ultimately, the government could decide
complicated, and they involve all of us. that A.I.-produced content is considered
free speech, including any content pro-
Google, Twitter and Spotify have all an-
duced by a voice interface or a bot. In the
nounced restrictions or complete bans on
end, it could open up the liability to legal
political advertisements in 2020. Facebook
entities responsible for the content.
is the notable exception here, allowing polit-
ical ads without fact-checking for accuracy. The Impact
Moving forward, there are numerous Complex legal questions will arise, and
scenarios for how governments choose to we’re likely to see various hybrids of these
protect and police content, regardless of scenarios in the future. The media and jour-
whether it was created by a human or a bot. nalism will be at the center of these legal
One scenario could be that governments questions around the world.
decide freedom of speech protections
155
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Digitally Retouching History
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight What’s Next The Impact

Digital tools now give government agencies Early in 2020, an exhibit at the U.S. National With deepfake technologies, automatic
the ability to edit, distort, or outright censor Archives celebrated the 100th anniversary dubbing, and other automated editing tools
content made by citizens. of women’s suffrage and included a series more widely available, there is growing
of photographs taken at the first Women’s concern that autocratic leaders will start
Why It Matters March, held a day after President Donald digitally manipulating content for use in
Digitally altering archival content—for Trump’s inauguration. One of the photo- propaganda and real-time disinformation.
example, photos taken of a historic event— graphs had been altered to blur placards
The National Archives removed dispar- can lead to misunderstanding and public and signs that disparaged Trump. Signs that Watchlist
aging messages about President Donald confusion in the future. depicted or referenced women’s anatomy Adobe, Amazon, DataGrid, Facebook,
Trump from photos like this one in a 2020 were also digitally edited. In the photo, a Google, National Archives, MIT’s CSAIL, Meo,
exhibition. Examples sign that had originally read “Trump & GOP– Microsoft, Modulate, Twitter, governments
Throughout history, governments have Hands Off Women” was digitally altered so worldwide.
manipulated photos—in 2008, when it was that the word “Trump” could not be seen.
thought that North Korean dictator Kim Other signs where Trump’s name could
Jong-il was critically ill or had died, the be read clearly were digitally blurred. The
North Korean government released a photo museum said that it had altered images to
of Jong-il standing with his People’s Army. protect student groups touring the exhibit,
Forensic experts suspected that his image but historians balked at the explanation.
had been digitally inserted. It was an unusual move in a democratic
nation—and yet there are currently no reg-
ulations governing the digital alteration of
archival content.

157
13 Quantum
& Edge
Near-Real-Time Application
162
Environments
162 A.I. at the Edge
162 Hyper-Local Data Centers
for Edge Computing
162 Quantum Supremacy
162 Quantum for the Masses
159
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Quantum and Edge
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT
We are at the beginning of a new era of
computing, one that will bring powerful
new computers and will eventually enable
more processing at or near the source of
our data.
 DEEPER DIVE
What You Need To Know About
Quantum Computing
In short, quantum computers can solve
problems that are computationally too
difficult for a classical computer, which can
only process information in 1s or 0s. In the
quantum universe, those 1 and 0 bytes can
exist in two states (qubits) at once, allowing
computations to be performed in parallel.
Therefore, if you build two qubits, they are
able to hold four values at the same time:
00, 01, 10, 11. Quantum computers require
special algorithms capable of doing new
things, making them more powerful than
anything built to date. Scientists have
Photograph of the Sycamore processor. Courtesy of Erik Lucero, research scientist and lead production quantum hardware at Google. been researching quantum computing for

decades. The challenge, however, has been WHY IT MATTERS tems Group, Google, Harvard University’s UMD’s Joint Center for Quantum Informa-
proving that a quantum machine is actually Quantum Initiative, Hebrew University of tion and Computer Science, University of
Recent advancements have spurred
carrying out quantum computations. That’s Jerusalem’s Quantum Information Science Science and Technology of China’s Division
interest in quantum and edge computing.
because in a quantum system, the very act Center, IBM, Intel, Keio University Quantum of Quantum Physics and Quantum Informa-
In 2019, Google published a paper in the
of observing information in transit changes Computing Center, Massachusetts Insti- tion, University of Washington’s Trapped Ion
journal Nature saying that it had reached
the nature of that data. tute of Technology’s Engineering Quantum Quantum Computing Group, Verizon, Zapata
a new benchmark for speed on a new kind
Systems Group, Michigan State University’s Computing.
of processor. Verizon and Amazon Web
What You Need To Know About Edge Laboratory for Hybrid Quantum Systems,
Services announced a new 5G edge cloud
Computing Microsoft, MIT Center for Quantum Engi-
computing partnership in December 2019 to
Edge computing performs computations neering (MIT-CQE), MIT Lincoln Laborato-
give developers tools to launch IoT devices
near or at the source of data. This differs ry’s Quantum Information and Integrated
and applications at the edge.
from the current norm, as today much of Nanosystems, Rigetti Computing, Stanford
our computing takes place in the cloud, with WATCHLIST FOR SECTION University’s Yamamoto Group, University
distributed data centers handling the proof California-Berkeley’s Quantum Informa-
Amazon, Amazon Web Services, Alibaba,
cessing work. The challenge for our existing tion & Computation Center, University of
AT&T, Baidu, Ben-Gurion University of the
cloud-based computing environments is British Columbia’s Advanced Materials and
Negev’s Center for Quantum Science &
the potential for delay, which is also known Process Engineering Laboratory, Univer-
Technology Bleximo, California Institute of
as latency. In the near-future, more of the sity of California-Los Angeles’s Center for
Technology’s Institute for Quantum Infor-
computational work could be done locally— Quantum Science & Engineering, University
mation and Matter (IQIM), Chapman Univer-
for example, a car’s computer vision system of California-Santa Barbara’s Center for
sity’s Institute for Quantum Studies, Cisco,
would process and recognize images imme- Spintronics and Quantum Computation,
Crown Castle, D-Wave Systems, Dartmouth
diately rather than sending that information University of Chicago’s Chicago Quantum
University’s Quantum and Condensed Matter
to the cloud for verification. Edge comput- Exchange, University of Maryland’s Center
Physics Group, Duke University, Georgia
ing requires custom chips and hardware and for Accelerated Real Time Analytics and
Tech Research Institute’s Quantum Sys-
will work alongside the cloud rather than
replace its functionality.
161
Quantum and Edge cont.
 TRENDS platform for edge computing features an ex- Quantum Supremacy Quantum for the Masses
tensive range of GPU (graphics processing
In October 2019, Google researchers pub- New kinds of processors are being de-
Near-Real-Time Application unit)-accelerated software, including Helm
lished a paper in the journal Nature as well signed to add-on to existing equipment, to
charts (collections of files) for deployment
Environments as a blog post on the company’s website give classic computers a quantum boost.
on Kubernetes, or portable, open-source
Within the next decade, there could be as explaining that they had achieved “quan- The end result isn’t a complete quantum
systems for managing “containerized” work
many as 50 billion devices online generating tum supremacy” for the first time. It was a computing system, but more of a hybrid.
and services. It also gives users access to
enormous amounts of data. Edge comput- significant revelation. Physicists said that Rigetti Computing is building small quantum
third-party domain-specific, pre-trained
ing is closely tied to the Internet of Things their 53-bit quantum computer, named processors that integrate with the cloud.
models and Kubernetes-ready Helm chart-
and 5G connectivity. As virtual reality and Sycamore, calculated something that an Pharmaceutical company Merck is experi-
sthat make it easy to deploy software or
extended reality become popular, more ordinary computer—even a very powerful menting with the processors for faster drug
build customized solutions.
processes will be pushed onto headsets. one—simply could not have completed. development and production.
For example, Amazon IoT Greengrass, the Sycamore performed a challenging cal-
Hyper-Local Data Centers for culation in 200 seconds. On the world’s
company’s platform for extending Amazon
Edge Computing current fastest traditional computer, that
Web Services to edge devices, was created
to more easily deploy applications. In Octo- All of the new streaming services—Apple same calculation would have taken 10,000
ber 2019 at Microsoft’s Government Leaders TV+, Peacock, Disney, HBO Max, Quibi—are years. Google achieved quantum supremacy
Summit, CEO Satya Nadella said that future entering a crowded field dominated by because a computer running on the laws
application environments would exist at the Netflix, Amazon, Hulu and YouTube. But of quantum physics completed a process
edge first, then be transferred to the cloud there’s a problem looming: compression that no conventional computer could have
for machine learning. and bandwidth. As a result, we will need completed in any reasonable amount of
lots of hyper-local data centers that are time. It will be some time before functioning
A.I. at the Edge located closer to consumers. In December quantum computers can solve practical
2019, Amazon Web Services announced problems, in addition to test problems run
With the proliferation of smart cameras and in a lab. But the era of quantum computing
that it would be building “local zones” close
speakers, developers are building edge sys- has dawned.
to major cities, with the goal of managing
tems that can recognize natural language,
latency-sensitive workloads.
people, pets and objects. Nvidia’s EGX

163
14 5G, Robotics & the Industrial Internet of Things
166 5G Triggers a Surge
of New Businesses
167 Capturing IIoT Metadata
168 Robots as a Service (RaaS)
169 Collaborative Robots
Autonomous,
170
Programmable
Robot Swarms
171 Robotic Process
Automation
172 Self-Assembling Robots
173 Robot Compilers
174 Soft Robotics
175 Commercial
Quadrupedal
Robots
176 Personal Robots
and Robot Butlers
177 Ethical Manufacturing
178 Robot Rights
179 Smart Dust
165
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
5G Triggers a Surge of New Businesses
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
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Key Insight telemedicine and robotic-assisted surgery, American security experts urged the U.S.
autonomous vehicles, and streaming. Unlike to build a 5G network with and for our allies
The latest (or fifth) generation of mobile net-
WiFi, a 5G network can be built to prioritize that excludes Chinese equipment entirely.
works, 5G is an upgrade from today’s 4G (or
certain data transmissions over others. For But in January 2020, the U.K. government
LTE) networks and will offer higher speeds,
example, heavy manufacturing companies approved a measure to allow Huawei to build
low or even no latency in data transfer, and
and utilities will be able to automate more of parts of its 5G network. Meanwhile, Chinese
the ability for billions of devices to connect
their core processes using advanced robot- President Xi Jinping has made it clear that
to each other.
ics systems, which will in turn create a new he intends to wean China and its allies off of
Why It Matters market for all of the components, devices Western-made technology.
The next generation of wireless infrastruc- and consulting services for that network.
ture will require hundreds of thousands of 5G will reshape our economies by trans- The Impact
small cells and towers. forming transportation, education, financial What’s Next Geopolitical tensions notwithstanding,
services, entertainment and healthcare, and
There’s a geopolitical fight underway, pitting the business cases for investing in 5G are
it will catalyze new businesses and applica-
the U.S. against China and South Korea. becoming clearer across a number of in-
tions we haven’t yet imagined.
As developed economies shift to the next dustries. It might take longer to find value in
Examples generation of wireless technology, some consumer applications.
questions loom about which country’s
5G advances today’s networks using a more
technology will power our new networks. Watchlist
responsive kind of radio technology that not
The U.S. will not allow Chinese companies AT&T, China Mobile, China Telecom, China
only moves data faster, but also requires less
ZTE and Huawei to supply gear to American Unicom, Cisco Systems, Ericsson, Huawei,
power to do so. 5G will shorten transmission
network operators in the states, which is a KT, LG, LG Uplus, Nokia, Qualcomm, Sam-
latency from 30 milliseconds to just a single
problem—Qualcomm, a chipmaker, is the sung, SK Telecom, Sprint, T-Mobile, Verizon,
millisecond, allowing essentially instanta-
only U.S. company making components ZTE.
neous connectivity between devices on a
necessary for a widescale 5G rollout. In 2019,
network. This means big opportunities for

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Capturing IIoT Metadata
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
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Key Insight Austin-based SparkCognition uses metada-

ta for predictive maintenance applications
The industrial internet of things (or IIoT)
in energy, gas and utilities.
refers to all of the hardware that’s collect-
ing, sharing and using data within industrial What’s Next
settings. Some of what’s being collected is
There is no unified approach for how to
metadata, which describes the data that’s
handle metadata in manufacturing and
being generated.
other IIoT settings—and at the moment, not
Why It Matters all systems and devices are interoperable.
The metadata itself could help solve that
Metadata is important because it lets us
problem, by identifying communication
take a deeper dive into what’s happening,
protocols that would facilitate the exchange
allowing us to see relationships, keywords,
of data throughout a network.
associations, descriptions and other factors
used in algorithms and indexes. The Impact
Examples Metadata will make it easier for businesses
Metadata captured from machines will to organize the data generated from all of
In an industrial setting, there is a tremen-
advance IIoT systems. their connected machinery within the IIoT.
dous amount of data generated by sensors,
Advancements in artificial intelligence will
switches, and connected devices. Those
offer deeper levels of insight into process
data can be mined, refined and analyzed for
automation.
cost savings, greater efficiencies and even
new product development. For example, Watchlist
Palo Alto-based Maana extracts metada-
Augury, Axzon, Bayshore Networks, Foghorn
ta to optimize a company’s processes by
Systems, KMC Controls, Maana, Plataine,
revealing previously unknown relationships.
SparkCognition, Tenna, Thetaray, Valarm.
167
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INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Robots as a Service (RaaS)
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
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Key Insight source platform that provides digital infra- Honda RaaS, InVia Robotics, Kuka, Mic-
structure essential to building and running rosoft, NASA’s Robotics Alliance Project,
Cloud robotics and automation is a field in
robotics solutions for business automation. Tesla.
which physical robots share data and code
and perform computations remotely via net- What’s Next
works, rather than within their containers
Using the cloud certainly offers advantag-
alone.
es: greater efficiencies and opportunities
Examples for data sharing and insights, as well as
collective learning across robotic networks
Autonomous vehicles are robots that use a
Robots as a service will transform business. and shared platforms. Soon, businesses will
network to access maps, index data, under-
be able to take advantage of cloud-based
stand spatial information and more in order
robotics for a variety of uses, including stra-
to make decisions. That data is shared on a
tegic warehouse selection in anticipation
network for optimization and later used by
of seasonal retail spikes, security in large
researchers and other vehicles. This is an
buildings, and factory automation.
example of cloud robotics, which is used
within autonomous driving as well as in The Impact
warehouse automation and logistics. Am-
There will be millions of implementations of
azon’s AWS RoboMaker is a cloud robotics
RaaS over the next five years, which could
service created to develop, test and deploy
generate billions of dollars of revenue.
intelligent robotics applications at scale.
Its partners include Nvidia, Qualcomm,
Watchlist
and UP Squared, and it supports the most
widely-used open-source robotics software Amazon AWS Robomaker, Anki, Carnegie
framework, Robot Operating System (ROS). Mellon’s Robotics Institute Cobalt Robotics,
Google’s Cloud Robotics Core is an open Fetch Robotics, Google Cloud Robotics,

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Collaborative Robots
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
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Key Insight assistant for engineers that interacts with The Impact
other robots and can learn from its human
Collaborative robots—or cobots—work along- Today, collaborative robots make up just 3%
coworkers. Tesla uses robots to assemble
side humans or together with other ma- of the current installed robot base around
its cars, while Amazon uses robots through-
chines. Teams of robots can communicate the world, but that’s going to change.
out its vast warehouses. German compa-
with each other, on their own, about when According to the International Federation of
ny KUKA and Japan’s FANUC both offer
to wait, when to move, when to carry out an Robotics, collaborative robots are the fast-
collaborative solutions to implement more
activity, or even to ask what to do next. est growing segment of new robot sales.
automation within factories.
Why It Matters Watchlist
What’s Next
In the past, installing and maintaining col- ABB Robotics, Aethon Inc., Amazon,
Researchers are developing cobots with
The next generation of robots will work laborative robots had been cost-prohibitive Autonomous Solutions, Boston Dynamics,
computer vision, faster processors, and A.I.
cooperatively. for smaller companies, especially compared Carnegie Mellon University, DARPA, Denso,
systems. As 5G comes online and reduces
to human workforces—but now that’s start- Energid Technologies, EPFL, EPSON Robot-
latency, cobots will process spatial data at
ing to change. ics, FANUC, Festo, Hitachi, Honda, iRobot,
fast enough speeds to adapt to environmen-
Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory,
Examples tal changes. In the near future, collaborative
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kawa-
robots will play a key role in warehouses and
Collaborative robots are finding more wide- saki Heavy Industries, KUKA, Lockheed
distribution centers, automating the tasks
spread use in industrial settings, which can Martin, Mitsubishi Electric, MIT’s Interactive
previously performed by humans. Some
often prove challenging for humans alone. Robotics Group, Northrop Grumman, Ocado
other use cases: Collaborative robots will
Under the European Union’s Horizon2020 Technology, Raytheon, Robotshop, Sapien-
help on construction sites, in factories, and
project, researchers at the Karlsruhe Insti- za Università di Roma, Seegrid, SoftBank
during military operations. In the further
tute of Technology, EPFL, Sapienza Univer- Group, SoftBank Robotics Corporation,
future, collaborative robots will underpin
sità di Roma, and University College London SpaceX, Tesla, Toyota, ULC Robotics, Uni-
fully-automated supply chains, logistics
developed an autonomous humanoid robot versity College London, University of Tokyo,
services and delivery networks.
VEX Robotics, Yamaha.
169
ACT
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INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Autonomous, Programmable
STRATEGY NOW
Robot Swarms REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Walmart filed a patent for robot bees, which Watchlist
would work collaboratively in teams to
Autonomous robot swarms are coordinated Carnegie Mellon’s Robotics Institute, DAR-
pollinate crops autonomously. If the project
and distributed to perform complex tasks in PA, MIT, NASA’s Robotics Alliance Project,
works at scale, it could potentially counter-
a more efficient way than a single robot or the Academy of Optoelectronics at the
balance the effects of the world’s honey bee
non-networked group of robots. Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing,
population decline.
University of California-Berkeley, University
Why it matters of Notre Dame, Walmart, Wyss Institute at
What’s Next
A thousand Kilobots self-assemble and Most robots are designed to work inde- Harvard.
They’ll fly, crawl, self-assemble, and even
work as a team. pendently or on a factory line, not as part of
swim. With enough swarm robotics projects
a team, leaving massive untapped oppor-
now in the works, researchers are develop-
tunities for the emerging field of swarm
ing next-generation hive operating systems,
robotics.
which would communicate between robots
Examples working together on a mission and their
human programmers.
Researchers at Harvard’s Wyss Institute
are experimenting with different form The Impact
factors drawn from nature. Last year, they
The possibilities for this technology are
developed robots that can autonomously
staggering: autonomous robot teams could
drive interlocking steel sheet piles into
be used to inspect dams and bridges, build
soil. The end result: structures that could
complicated 3D structures, and lay protec-
be someday be used as retaining walls or
tive barriers in the case of toxic chemical
check dams for erosion control. Another
spills—freeing up their human counterparts
project, called Kilobots, involves 1,024 tiny
and keeping them out of harm’s way.
robots working collectively to self-assemble
and perform a programmed task. In 2018,

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Robotic Process Automation
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
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Key Insight petitive data entry work. The availability of make better real-time predictive decisions
artificial intelligence tools and frameworks in a host of different areas, from customer
Robotic Process Automation (RPA) enables
now let companies digitally automate even service to cost savings.
businesses to automate certain tasks and
more of their functions.
processes within offices, allowing employ- Watchlist
ees to spend time on higher-value work. What’s Next Amazon, Automation Anywhere, Blue Prism,
Why It Matters RPA has the potential to transform the Google, IBM, Kofax, Kryon, Microsoft, Nice
future of work, which is why so many orga- Robotic Automation, Salesforce, UiPath,
Despite fears that bots are congesting the
nizations are researching how to integrate WorkFusion.
internet and causing mayhem on social
it into their workflows and systems. In Jan-
media, they can also automate tasks and
uary 2020, the U.S. government published a
RPA will help automate tasks to increase applications to save businesses’ resources
playbook for federal agencies that provides
efficiencies. and drive better efficiencies. RPA can be
guidance on how to initiate a new RPA
installed in just about any kind of device
program. If the government deployed RPA at
and can work independently or as part of a
scale and was able to eliminate 20 hours of
company’s cloud environment.
workload per employee, the capacity would
Examples be worth $3 billion, according to govern-
ment estimates.
Amazon uses RPA to sift through resumes
before prioritizing top candidates for The Impact
review. Hospitals use RPA such as UiPath,
RPA will eventually augment staff and shift
which automates the process of copying
their productivity into higher gear, especial-
patient data between files and electronic
ly as adjacent fields like natural language
patient records. In banking, Blue Prism and
processing advance. Companies could then
Automation Anywhere help staff process re-
171
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INFORMS
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Self-Assembling Robots
STRATEGY NOW
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Key Insight What’s Next Watchlist

A new generation of robots can now self-as- Self-assembling robots offer a host of Georgia Institute of Technology, MIT Com-
semble, merge, split and repair themselves. possibilities for medicine, manufacturing, puter Science and Artificial Intelligence
construction and the military. The MIT Laboratory, Peking University, University of
Why It Matters Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Pennsylvania.
These self-assembling robots will create Laboratory (CSAIL) built a self-assembling
greater efficiencies in factories and offer robot called Primer that is controlled by
new methods to deliver emergency ser- magnetic fields. It can put on exoskeleton
vices. parts to help it walk, roll, sail or glide better,
depending on the environment. Research-
M-Blocks 2.0 self-assemble like Examples ers at the Georgia Institute of Technology
Transformers. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and at Peking University (China) discovered
developed a set of robots called M-Blocks a new technique that mimics automatic ori-
2.0 that use a barcode system to commu- gami—in initial testing, structures could fold
nicate. They can identify each other and and unfold on their own using inexpensive
move as needed to perform designated liquid polymers and LED projector bulbs.
tasks, which at the moment include forming
The Impact
a straight line and moving down a pathway.
The University of Pennsylvania developed Self-assembling robots will be tremendous
SMORES-EP robots—tiny, cube-shaped assets in emergency response situations.
wheeled robots with sensors and cameras. Imagine a set of robots forming a temporary
Moving independently and docking with staircase to rescue someone from a burning
nearby modules, they can form different building, or a set of bots that can lock to-
structures—and even self-assemble to lift gether to form a bridge over flooded roads.
objects and drop them off.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Robot Compilers
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
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Key Insight Examples The Impact

Today, the process of designing, program- Researchers from the Laboratory for There are tangible applications for busi-
ming and building robots is time-inten- Embedded Machines and Ubiquitous Robots nesses: Robot compilers would offer
sive—and the robot’s capabilities are limited at University of California-Los Angeles, MIT greater efficiencies, big cost savings and
by its original specifications. In the future, Computer Science and Artificial Intelli- increased production for manufacturers in
advanced compilers will enable much faster gence Laboratory (CSAIL), University of every industry.
conceptualization and fabrication for a host Pennsylvania and Harvard University have
of different tasks. been working to develop new methods for Watchlist
rapid robot fabrication. 3D robotic systems Alliance Project, Harvard University, MIT
Why It Matters can now be produced using basic software Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence
A robot compiler from CSAIL. We will soon tell computer systems what and programmed using natural language Laboratory (CSAIL), University of Pennsylva-
tasks we need completed, and they will au- commands. nia, Laboratory for Embedded Machines and
tomatically fabricate new robots for the job. Ubiquitous Robots at University of Califor-
What’s Next nia-Los Angeles, Walmart.
Fabricating programmable robots may not
exactly be a simple, DIY weekend project,
but promising research indicates that robot
compilers could soon enable people with
limited technical knowledge to sketch,
design, fabricate and control a robot drawn
straight from their imagination.
173
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IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Soft Robotics
STRATEGY NOW
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Key Insight Researchers at Worcester Polytechnic The Impact

Institute have been working on a robotic
Imagine robots that are pliable and soft Someday soon, soft robotics will let us
snake that could navigate through rubble or
to the touch, more like certain biological enter and explore environments previously
confined spaces.
forms, and can operate in unpredictable unreachable by conventional methods:
environments. MIT engineers created soft and compact 3-D deep ocean waters, the terrain of Mars, and
printed structures that can be controlled perhaps even the gushing rivers of blood
Examples using magnets. The hope is that they can inside our own bodies.
There are now a variety of soft robots someday help control biomedical devices,
available. Some look like fat, squishy human take images within the body, clear arterial Watchlist
fingers while others resemble gelatinous blockages, deliver targeted drugs to specific Defense Advanced Research Projects Agen-
A tissue-based soft robot that mimics the cephalopods. Bioengineering researchers body parts, or even extract tissue samples. cy (DARPA), Harvard Biodesign Lab, Johns
biomechanics of a stingray. at the University of California-Los Angeles Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, MIT
What’s Next
developed a tissue-based soft robot that Media Lab, MIT Computer Science and Arti-
mimics the biomechanics of a stingray. Sci- Soft robots face a big problem when it ficial Intelligence Laboratory’s Soft Contact
entists at the BioRobotics Institute at the comes to heat control, because they’re Modeling Group, MIT Department of Civil and
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna in Pisa, Italy, made of flexible synthetic materials rather Environmental Engineering, Scuola Superi-
created a robot octopus, capable of emulat- than metals, which are better at dissipating ore Sant’Anna, Soft Robotics, University of
ing the animal’s agile motions. To replicate heat. Researchers at Cornell’s School of California-Los Angeles School of Engineer-
the biology of an octopus, they built com- Engineering developed a robot capable of ing, Worcester Polytechnic Institute.
puter models using exact measurements “sweating.” They built a soft robotic muscle
and then experimented with a number of that can autonomously regulate its internal
soft actuators to develop artificial muscles. temperature, just like living organisms do.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Commercial Quadrupedal Robots
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
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Quadrupedal robots have four articulated In October 2019, a quadruped from Boston For now, Boston Dynamics is the only com-
legs and can move around difficult terrain, Dynamics went on sale. The robot, named pany selling advanced robots like Spot for
making them useful tools for inspections Spot, looks like a headless dog and moves commercial, non-military purposes. Still, we
and security applications. with the agility and athleticism of a border believe this is a trend worth following close-
collie. Spot can map environments, move ly for its potential effect across industries.
Why It Matters around difficult terrain and interact with a
By emulating the form and mobility of range of different objects. Watchlist
four-legged animals, these robots can be Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Fetch
deployed in situations that wheeled or What’s Next Robotics, Genesis Robotics, Google, Honda,
Spot is the first commercially available tread-equipped robots cannot navigate, The ecosystem is still forming, but as de- Microsoft, NVIDIA, SoftBank, Sony, UBTech,
advanced quadrupedal robot. and that may be too dangerous or physically velopers build applications across different Universal Robots.
inaccessible for human intervention. industries we expect to see new use cases
emerge, particularly in safety, security,
maintenance, emergency response, mili-
tary, and even consumer contexts.
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Personal Robots and Robot Butlers
STRATEGY NOW
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Key Insight neck scratches and pats on the head), the population is inverting: There aren’t enough Watchlist
better it gets at interacting. Panasonic and people working to support retirees (one in
Personal robots and robot butlers, capable AMY Robotics, ARP, Bioinspired Intelligent
Japan’s largest homebuilder Daiwa House four people in the country are now age 65 or
of carrying out multiple tasks in domestic Mechatronics Lab, Buddy, Fujitsu, Groove
created an A.I.-powered robot that can older), and there aren’t enough new babies
and everyday environments, have entered X, Honda, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics
sort and fold your laundry. Honda and Sony being born. It’s no surprise, then, that the
the market. Laboratory, LG, MIT Media Lab, Mitsubishi
launched a fleet of personal robots in the first crop of companion robots is being built
Heavy Industries, Nanyang Technological
Why It Matters past year, offering both companionship and in Japan. Anyone interested in the future
University, Panasonic, Ritsumeikan Univer-
some help with the housework. (Whether of robotics would be wise to look beyond
These assistive robots will soon include sity, Samsung, Sharp, Shinpo Electronics,
there’s a Marie Kondo-bot on the horizon, Silicon Valley to the universities and R&D
APIs, which will allow developers to make SoftBank Robotics, Sony, Tokyo University,
we still don’t know.) labs of Japan, where extensive research on
more applications for them, and should Toyota.
the next generation of robot companions is
generate increased demand. What’s Next already underway. Out of necessity, robots—
Many countries, including Japan, Italy, and mechanical systems, artificial intelligence,
Examples
Germany, are facing rapid demographic and automated services—will act as produc-
At the 2020 CES, Samsung introduced tive, emotionally-intelligent stand-ins for
shifts. Population numbers in certain age
“Ballie,” a small A.I.-powered robo-ball younger generations that were simply too
groups are changing, and within a genera-
that functions as a security robot, fitness small in numbers.
tion some of these countries and others will
assistant, smart speaker and friend. While
no longer have the demographic makeup
there’s no word on when Ballie will be
needed to make their societies function Impact
available to customers, Sony has a robot
as they do today. Science and technology For now, personal robots are out of the
dog in the market already. Aibo is a cute
will eventually compensate for the lack of price range of average consumers. That will
robot puppy that can play fetch—it responds
people: robots will assist with everything change as the device ecosystem matures in
to reinforcement learning, so the more
from eldercare, to medical assistance, to the very near future.
its owners offer feedback (in the form of Sony’s newest Aibo plays fetch.
everyday companionship. In Japan, the

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Ethical Manufacturing
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
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Key Insight buckets instead of toilets, suffered sores are replaced by robots, the flow of money
from bed bugs and didn’t have enough food through the community can go from a trick-
Robots could bring an end to forced labor
to sustain them. le to a drought.
and lead a new era of ethical manufacturing.
What’s Next Watchlist
Why It Matters
You might assume that if a t-shirt costs ABB Robotics, Aethon Inc., Alliance For
Millions of people are victims of forced labor
$5.99, then a robot made it, but that isn't American Manufacturing, Alphabet (Goo-
around the world.
always the case. Better manufacturing pro- gle), Amazon, Carnegie Mellon University,
Examples cesses in fast fashion and other industries MIT’s Interactive Robotics Group, National
could lead to improved working conditions Association of Manufacturers, Tesla, ULC
Advancements in robotics will further
for millions of people, but also may put Robotics.
A garment factory in Southeast Asia. reduce the need for human labor. While this
some of those people out of their jobs.
certainly means that people will be out of
Sustainability goals set by the United Nation
certain kinds of work, it could also mean the
and other organizations have prioritized
end of bonded, forced and child labor—not
human rights in manufacturing and supply
to mention outright slavery—which unfortu-
chain processes and automation.
nately has become commonplace in places
like Uzbekistan, China and Bangladesh. The Impact
In September 2018, the Associated Press
Ethical manufacturing promises more
published a devastating account of foreign
humane work environments, but could also
fishing workers, confined and forced to
potentially lead to disruption in developing
work on U.S. fishing boats. The AP’s inves-
economies. Even with extremely low wages,
tigation revealed a disturbing present-day
a workforce can sustain a local econo-
reality: Fishermen who were forced to use
my—when those wages are lost as workers
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IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Robot Rights
STRATEGY NOW
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"The rationale for Key Insight

Some believe that we have moral obliga-
sure human empathy toward robots. They
deployed Robovie through a mall in Osaka
ly as robots are predicted to take on more
meaningful roles within the workplace and
without a human minder. If someone walked in society. The European Union is already
robot ‘rights’ is tions to our machines, and that, like people,
robots should have rights too.
into the robot’s path, it would politely ask discussing whether there ought to be a
the human to move. Adults complied—but special legal status of “electronic persons”
not a question for Why It Matters children didn’t. And if unsupervised, the to protect sophisticated robots.
children were intentionally mean, kicking
2076, it's already a We are seeing increased instances of hu-
mans bullying or abusing robots.
the robot, yelling at it and bullying it. Watchlist
ATR Intelligent Robotics and Communica-
question for now." Examples
What’s Next tion Laboratories, Buddy, Honda, LG, MIT
When it comes to our interactions with Media Lab, Mitsubishi, Osaka University,
A recent study from the Human Interaction
robots, what constitutes a moral violation? Panasonic, Ritsumeikan University, Ryukoku
– Peter W. Singer, With Nature and Technological Systems
What rights should robots have, given that University, Sharp, SoftBank Robotics, Sony,
author of Wired for War Lab (HINTS) at the University of Washington
so many companies are building smart Tokai University, Tokyo University, Toyota,
discovered that children didn’t show the
interfaces and cognitive systems? If we are University of Washington, Wyss Institute
same kind of empathy for robots that they
teaching machines to think, and to learn at Harvard.Mechatronics Lab, Buddy,
do with other humans. In the study, 60% of
from us humans, then what moral codes are Fujitsu, Groove X, Honda, Johns Hopkins
the child subjects thought that a humanoid
we programming into our future generations Applied Physics Laboratory, LG, MIT Media
robot named Robovie-II had feelings—yet
of robots? Answering these questions will Lab, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nanyang
more than half of them thought it was fine
become increasingly urgent as robots prolif- Technological University, Panasonic, Ritsu-
to lock him in the closet. Researchers at
erate in many aspects of our everyday lives. meikan University, Samsung, Sharp, Shinpo
ATR Intelligent Robotics and Communi-
Electronics, SoftBank Robotics, Sony, Tokyo
cation Laboratories, Osaka University, The Impact University, Toyota.
Ryukoku University, and Tokai University
Do robots need worker rights, too? Re-
in Japan conducted an experiment to mea-
searchers raise this question now, especial-

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Smart Dust
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight It sounds fantastical, but the use of MEMS is rogue smart dust on a windy day? In the fur-
already widespread. They’re the accelerom- ther-future, could this technology be used
These computers, no larger than a grain of
eter sensors for our airbag systems and are to track us surreptitiously?
dust, are so light they can stay suspended
also found in biosensors. Scientists at the
in midair. The Impact
University of California-Berkeley developed
Why It Matters what they call “neural dust,” which com- We should see more interesting develop-
prises microscopic computers that work ments in smart dust this year as the practi-
Smart dust, also known as “microelectrome-
alongside remote ultrasound to send and cal application of always-on sensors grows.
chanical systems” or MEMS, represent a new
receive data about the brain. Meanwhile,
Smart dust developed by Hitachi. kind of atomic-level materials engineering.
researchers at the University of Stuttgart Watchlist
figured out how to print tiny 3D lenses—120
Examples Ambiq Micro, Defense Advanced Research
millionths of a meter in diameter, or about Projects Agency (DARPA), Jeeva Wireless,
If you watched the “Arkangel” episode of the size of a grain of sand. Matrix Industries, Northrop Grumman, Psi-
“Black Mirror” (season four), you’re already
Kick, Purdue University, Stanford University,
familiar with smart dust. For years, re- What’s Next
University of California-Berkeley, University
searchers have been hard at work on minia-
In health and medicine, this technology of Stuttgart, University of Washington,
turization, as they try to shrink computers
will dramatically change our approach to University of Southern California Robotics
as much as possible, down to the size of
imaging. Rather than relying on our current Research Lab.
grains of sand or specks of dust. Each
endoscopic technology, which is bulky and
particle-computer consists of circuits and
invasive, a patient could simply inhale smart
sensors capable of monitoring the environ-
dust. Beyond medicine, trillions of smart
ment, and even taking photographs. They
dust particles could be released in the wind
can even harvest energy while suspended,
to measure air quality or take photos. But
using everything from passive WiFi and our
we must also consider other hazards and
body heat to power themselves.
use cases: Would you know if you’d inhaled
179
15 Transportation
182 Drones 186 Transportation Trends
Medical Supply Drone
183 188 Cognitive Active
Delivery Safety Features
183 Drone Operation Centers 188 Electric Vehicles Cause
Electricity Demand Spikes
183 Drones-as-a-Service
188 Transportation-as-a-Service
Personal Home Drone
183
Surveillance 188 Forced Updates To Firmware
and Software
183 Flying Beyond Visual
Line of Sight 189 Analog Fallbacks
184 Real-Time Mapping 189 Exponential Growth in
Autonomous Miles Data
184 Drones for Dangerous
and Hard-To-Reach Areas 189 Autonomous Last
Mile Logistics
Clandestine, Disappearing
184
Drones 189 Mixed-Use Sidewalks
and Drone Lanes
184 Flying Taxis
190 Supersonic Flights
Autonomous Underwater
185
Vehicles 190 Autonomous Ships
185 Drone Air Lanes
185 Follow Me Autonomously
185 Drone Swarms
181
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Drones
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT pendently and together as part of a larger

fleet–are finding wider commercial use in
A commercial industry has boomed, and
natural disasters, for package deliveries, for
hundreds of thousands of drones are being
smart city management, within warehouses,
used for media, land surveying, building and
and on automated farms.
infrastructure inspections, and personal
entertainment.
WHY IT MATTERS
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW As drone demand increases around the
world, it’s likely that consolidation will follow.
Drones were used extensively during the
Flight service providers, hardware startups,
coronavirus outbreak of 2020: to monitor
drone and aircraft manufacturers, asset
residents and encourage them to stay in-
and flight path management software, and
doors, to inspect traffic stops and hospitals,
data processing platforms will see a wave of
and to spray cities with disinfectants. A
mergers and acquisitions in the near future,
video clip went viral on a Chinese social
which could make it difficult for new start-
media site, showing a drone breaking up
ups to compete.
a mahjong game—residents defied local
ordinances to stay indoors. The government
Zipline’s drones, which can carry about 4 pounds and travel at 68 miles per hour, have made
THE IMPACT
was reportedly using drones outfitted with
more than 29,551 deliveries. infrared cameras to fly overhead and check Widespread future use of commercial
Credit: Roksenhorn
for people who might have fevers. drones will likely depend on standardizing
regulations. If companies are forced to
China offers a glimpse into how drones will
comply with patchwork regulations in dif-
be used more in the near-future. Auton-
ferent locations, it would make compliance
omous drones–capable of working inde-
burdensome.

WATCHLIST  TRENDS and hardware will help manage fleets. In homeowners. One example: Sunflower
addition to optimizing and deploying fleets, Labs has developed a three-part home
Aerodyne Group, Airbus, AirDog, Bell
Helicopter, Boeing, Boeing's Aurora Flight Medical Supply Drone Delivery commercial drone operation centers will drone surveillance system that includes
work to determine the best delivery routes, flying and ground drones. Think of them as
Sciences, Cora, Corgan, Cyberhawk, DJI, Drone platform provider Matternet launched
how to minimize costs and the best way to roving security guards that don’t get tired
Dubai Road and Transport Authority, EHang, a new trial program with UPS in 2019 to
reach consumers and partners. or need bathroom breaks. The system relies
Embraer, Federal Aviation Administration, deliver medical supplies—documents, blood
on “Sunflowers,” small 1.5-foot bulbs that
fiber optic cable providers, Hemav, Hover, samples, and other items—via a secure
Intel, Joby, Karem Aircraft, Lilium, Lockheed drone carrier. After a successful run, the
Drones-as-a-Service resemble ordinary garden lights but are
packed with various sensors. Placed around
Martin Corp, Massachusetts Institute of two companies will provide the service to Ownership of powerful, commercial drones
a home, the Sunflowers triangulate people
Technology, municipalities and state legisla- medical centers in the U.S. In 2020, Jacobs may be out of reach, financially, for some
and objects while a Bee—that’s the name of
tures, NASA, NASA Unmanned Aircraft Sys- Medical Center and the Moores Cancer companies who need occasional—rather
the drone—flies itself around the property to
tem, oil and gas pipelines, Opener, Operation Center, which are located about a mile away than ongoing—access to aerial logistics. The
monitor activity before returning to its Hive
Zenith, Pipistrel Aircraft, security providers, from each other in California, will use secure drone industry will likely borrow business
base station.
shipping and port operators, Swellpro, Terra drone delivery to move samples, documents models from other industries—including the
Drone, Toyota, Traffic Management, U.S. and supplies. The flight will take a few car rental and scooter sharing industry—and
Coast Guard, U.S. Military, U.S. Navy, Volo- minutes and will be monitored by a team of may begin providing drones-as-a-service. Flying Beyond Visual Line of
copter, Walkera, Wisk, Yuneec International, remote operators. Previously, UPS had test- This also reduces the need for special- Sight
Yuneec, Zipline. ed a medical supply drone to deliver blood to ly-trained staff and licensed drone pilots. Robots harnessing neural networks and ar-
remote areas of Rwanda. tificial intelligence can make inferences and
Personal Home Drone decisions when programmed to do so. That’s
Drone Operation Centers Surveillance because of sense and avoid technology. Last
year, a host of new drones equipped with
As commercial drones take to our sidewalks Why bother with fixed security cameras
anti-collision sensors and transponders ca-
and skies, drone control centers and spe- when a flying drone could patrol your home?
pable of transmitting waypoints were able to
cially-trained logistics experts with experi- A number of new home drone surveillance
inspect many miles of oil and gas pipelines.
ence in geospatial data, predictive analytics startups are now testing new systems for
183
Drones cont.
Real-Time Mapping research in drones capable of making than crash into people, homes, or cars, the
deliveries—and then disappearing into thin drone would instead gently fall apart and
Better cameras, faster processing, and
air. The agency’s Vanishing Programmable glide down to a safe area.
smarter algorithms will soon help drones
Resources (VAPR) program has already
generate live maps while hovering in pre-
viously unknown areas. This will allow for
shown that it’s possible to program a small Flying Taxis
chip to shatter on command. As part of the
fast data generation and, as a result, better The first flying taxi stations are opening in
program, SRI International developed the
insights. For example, some newer software 2020. Electric vertical take-off and landing
Stressed Pillar-Engineered CMOS Technol-
systems like DroneDeploy can generate aircraft operators promise to make flying
ogy Readied for Evanescence (SPECTRE),
live thermal maps so that farmers and city taxis available and affordable to everyone—
which is a silicon-air battery technology that
Drone swarms move together and are used managers can visualize temperature range and to alleviate traffic congestion in the
can self-destruct. It’s also possible to get
for light shows, military operations and variability in real-time. process. Several companies built proof of
rid of certain parts of drones: Scientists at
reconnaissance missions. concept designs for aircraft that would take
the University of Houston developed a new
Drones for Dangerous and kind of circuit that dissolves when exposed
off vertically, fly horizontally and fly short
Hard-To-Reach Areas distances at an affordable price around met-
to water molecules—when programmed or
ropolitan areas, and some are already flying.
Smaller, rugged, A.I.-powered drones can scheduled. Meanwhile, San Francisco-based
In late 2019, the Volocopter 2X made its first
access dangerous and hard-to-reach spac- Otherlab built a drone made out of mush-
public flight in Singapore. EHang debuted a
es. Companies now use drones to survey the rooms. Just after deployment, embedded
flying taxi that is rated to carry 575 lbs for 30
insides of underground mines, ballasts of spores begin to eat away at the drone,
minutes at 80 miles per hour. Berlin-based
tanks and inside of nuclear facilities. Home devouring it entirely in less than a week.
Lilium is building a production facility for its
and building inspectors now use drones Another DARPA program—the Inbound,
new electric aircraft. Kitty Hawk, a startup
to inspect rooftops and sides of buildings. Controlled, Air-Releasable, Unrecoverable
funded by Google’s Larry Page and run by
Such use of drones could improve human Systems (or ICARUS) program—is working on
Sebastian Thrun, who previously launched
safety, cut costs, and shorten downtimes. vanishing drones and other gadgets to assist
Google’s self-driving car unit, entered into
the U.S. military when carrying out oper-
a joint venture with Boeing to launch flying
Clandestine, Disappearing ations. But disappearing drones don’t just
taxi service Wisk. In February 2020, Wisk
Drones serve a military purpose. Amazon is working
signed a memorandum of understanding
on self-destructing features in the event
The Department of Advanced Research with the government of New Zealand to start
that one of its delivery drones fails. Rather
Projects Agency (DARPA) funded new

trials with its self-flying electric aircraft as the backbone of the internet, enabling Follow Me Autonomously the drone and the calculations performed in
Cora. A number of other companies are increased competition and connectivity. Mil- the cloud or via operator device.
“Follow-me” functionality popularized by
working on such technology, including Air- itary autonomous underwater vehicles could
consumer drones will drive the development
bus, Joby and Toyota. NASA is working with be used for security, intelligence, counter-
of sense and avoid technology for autono-
Drone Swarms
the Federal Aviation Administration on an measures, network infrastructure, and port
mous vehicles of all sizes. Personal drones Drone swarms are groups of drones that fly
Urban Air Mobility, or UAM, project to create security. These roles could be offensive or
for photography will exponentially increase and move together. They are used in China
the groundwork for the safety and security defensive.
testing and accelerate the development of as alternatives to fireworks and in dazzling
of this new short-distance aircraft. Uber has
the technology. Drones that can automat- light shows at Disney Parks. In the dark,
also provided guidelines for vertical takeoff Drone Air Lanes ically avoid crashes and avoid obstacles lights on the drones can look like fireworks
and landing crafts to be able to travel at up
Drone adoption will push the development can increase the safety and versatility of that move and light up in ways that defy
to 200 miles per hour, at an altitude of 1,000
of “air lanes” for both manned and unmanned drones. Autonomous conflict avoidance also physics. Beyond light shows, drone swarms
to 2,000 feet, and have a range of 60 miles.
aircraft where different types of aerial reduces stress on the pilot, making indoor are used in military operations and in recon-
Uber’s service is envisioned to serve con-
vehicles are grouped into categories and flight easier and expanding where drones naissance missions. Future swarm technol-
certs, festivals, and green spaces. (Today,
traffic lanes. NASA recently completed the can be operated. Many consumer drones ogy could use what Nora Ayanin, a roboticist
you can book an Uber helicopter to include
development of a traffic management eco- available today have “follow-me” crash at the University of Southern California, calls
car service to and from heliports.)
system for aerial devices that fly under 400 avoidance technology used for semi-au- “leveraging diversity in the control policy,”
feet. The Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic tonomous flight. A subject is kept in the where each drone is programmed slightly
Autonomous Underwater Management (UTM) has been handed off frame, and a separate pilot is not needed. differently, so the one best suited to the task
Vehicles to the Federal Aviation Administration for This is ideal for capturing solo activities teaches the rest of the swarm how to act.
Drones aren’t just for air and land—they can further development and implementation. where the drone operator is in the field of
operate underwater, too. Autonomous un- Proactively constructing aerial infrastruc- view, perhaps doing backflips, cartwheels
derwater vehicles can reduce costs for mon- ture will let regulators relieve congestion, or smiling. Obstacle avoidance would be a
itoring, building and maintaining underwater ensure safety and incorporate learnings logical stepping stone to fully autonomous
assets. Changing the business dynamics for from road and air travel. The development of drones, but getting there will likely require
marine construction potentially increasing regulation will be made at the city and state more energy efficient processors to do the
underwater land usage. Improved mapping level because interoperability at a federal necessary calculations onboard the drone.
of underwater surfaces will reduce the cost and global level will be less necessary for Connectivity technology like 5G will help
of laying the transatlantic cables that serve drone travel. minimize lag time between the movement of
185
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Transportation Trends
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT early 2020 U.S. lawmakers proposed a new

regulatory framework to govern self-driving
An autonomous vehicle is capable of sens-
vehicles.
ing its environment and operating without
human involvement while carrying some
kind of cargo.  DEEPER DIVE
Levels of Automation
There are different levels of what’s consid-
The Tesla is well-known for its self-driv-
ered “self-driving.” The Society of Automo-
ing capabilities: It can park itself, drive on
tive Engineers drafted a generally accepted
highways using auto-pilot, and drive through
definition of autonomous driving that
parking lots to pick up passengers. In 2020,
goes from level zero to level five. The most
several cars with autonomous features will
advanced publicly available vehicles reached
come to market. Cars aren’t the only autono-
level two functionality, like Tesla’s Autopilot
mous vehicles, though. Trucks and ships are
or Cadillac’s Super Cruise.
being developed with assistive technologies,
which will require less direct human involve- Level Zero
ment while operating vehicles. These cars contain features that may
momentarily take control over the vehicle,
WHY IT MATTERS but they do not have sustained control of
Locations of charging stations could shift traffic patterns, benefitting the local economies
As the autonomous vehicle industry starts the car. This includes anti lock brakes and
of some towns.
to mature, there are numerous business electronic stability control.
opportunities for both startups and estab-
Level 1
lished companies. However the commercial
sector moved faster than regulators, and in This incorporates "hands-on or driver assis-
tance,” in which the car works in conjunction

with human control of the vehicle. Examples Level 4 municate with each other. This will require vehicles communicate directly with one
would be adaptive cruise control, where additional work, and some questions still another. The platoon would require only one
“Mind-off / high automation” includes
the car controls speed, or the use of “park remain: Should vehicles talk to each other lead driver, or no driver, depending on the
technology that allows the vehicle to need
assist” where the car controls steering. as part of a big, moving network? Or should level of autonomation.
no input or oversight, but it’s restricted to
vehicles communicate with infrastructure to Waze’s user-generated traffic data is an
Level 2 specific roads or conditions. An example
send and receive all the data they need? (Or example of collaborative sourcing of trans-
This is “hands-off / partial automation” would be the Google Firefly Prototype, which
would there need to be some combination of port information. Cadillac’s Super Cruise
where the car controls acceleration, brak- did not have a steering wheel or pedal.
the two?) semi-autonomous driving service relies on
ing, and steering, but the human is required Level 5
Vehicles will need to communicate with one similar technology, using vehicles equipped
to intervene at any point. A good example is
“Steering wheel optional/full automation" another and to the road infrastructure to get with expensive LIDAR (Light Detection and
Tesla’s Autopilot feature, where the car fol-
means the car can operate anywhere and, in real-time information on the road conditions Ranging) that scans the roadway ahead and
lows lanes, accelerates to travel speed and
any conditions, that a human could without and collaboration among vehicles. This will provides accurate mapping of the road. Cars
decelerates for traffic and intersections.
needing any human interaction. Waymo create new data streams to optimize road using the Super Cruise function that follow
Level 3 has a fleet of hybrid cars that it’s testing for usage. Audi, Qualcomm and the Virginia De- behind don’t need to have their own LIDAR
This would be “eyes-off / conditional auto- Level 5 automation in Phoenix. partment of Transportation are testing cars equipment.
mation,” where the driver is not required to that will interface with construction zones Network protocols for vehicles and infra-
How Autonomous Vehicles “Talk” To
pay attention to driving for the majority of and traffic lights. structure communication must be devel-
Each Other
the time. But the driver must be prepared to Multiple cars will travel together in groups oped, and it needs to be unfailingly reliable,
intervene at certain moments when prompt- Autonomous vehicles rely on internal soft-
of “platoons” in very short distances of each fast, and secure. Vehicle communication
ed by the car. An example would be the Audi ware and sensors to perform basic func-
other, increasing the efficiency of commu- protocols will likely intersect with 5G tech-
Traffic Jam Pilot, where the car takes full tions. However, in order to achieve Level
nication between the vehicles and the roads nology and node-based/mesh networks.
control of driving in slow-moving traffic on 5 autonomy—where vehicles drive them-
on which they travel. The platoon approach Researchers are exploring Vehicular Ad Hoc
highways. selves, along with other vehicles across all
is a frequent method of increasing the Networks, which uses node-based rebroad-
of our roads, highways, alleys, bridges, and
throughput on existing “dumb” highways—so casting of information—a method that could
driveways—they’ll need to sense and com-
187
Transportation Trends cont.
potentially reduce the need for fixed infra-  TRENDS Tesla underscored the importance of the electric motorcycles—eCooltra and ioscoot.
structure and could allow moving vehicles electrical grid when its vehicles’ alerted Car rental companies like Hertz and Avis are
to take their network with them into areas Cognitive Active Safety Features owners in California that their electricity now allowing rentals by the minute or mile
with no connectivity. Gotenna uses similar would be disrupted by wildfires. The early in some locations, and other companies let
Proactive driver safety functions are be-
local mesh networking to allow cell phone movers that build charging infrastructure people rent out their own vehicles to strang-
coming more advanced as we get closer to
communication in areas without cell service. along travel routes will have the power to ers—Turo, Getaround, Zipcar, Koolicar,
autonomous driving. For example, Driveri
shift traffic patterns and create a network Drover, Carlease, Avis Budget Group, Hyre-
Lawsuits and Restructuring is a dash camera that uses A.I. to monitor
advantage—similar to the way the interstate Car, Hiyacar, Miveo Car-sharing Technolo-
real-time road conditions to provide driving
The pace of advancement slowed when highway system created an economic boon gies and MaaS Finland. Car manufacturers,
suggestions. The company partnered with
Waymo and Uber entered a heated lawsuit for certain towns and sunk towns bypassed too, are testing out new ownership models
fleets and commercial drivers to monitor
over trade secret infringement and because by the roads. Utility providers will be like Silvercar by Audi, Care by Volvo or
driving behavior and also to teach people
of limited employee mobility across compa- pressured to improve the grid resilience as Porsche Passport. As transportation shifts
how to be better drivers. Vehicle manu-
nies. The companies settled the suit, and a domestic charging demands grow. Access to service platforms, subscriptions or usage
facturers will continue to implement and
general truce emerged—but the freedom of and resilience of electricity grids will be key rates, traditional ownership, maintenance
tout active safety features as a way to drive
information and exchange of ideas has been to economic prosperity in the future, as de- and depreciation will decrease in popular-
consumer sales. The development cycles of
reduced. pendency grows for electric transportation. ity. Consumers will choose such services
car manufacturers will move faster than the
based on their personal needs, flexibility and
Things perked up in November 2019 when historic 10-year cycles, as platforms become
General Motors CEO Mary Barra boldly increasingly software-driven.
Transportation-as-a-Service cost-efficiency.
announced that GM would restructure the The business models supporting transporta-
company and focus on its electric and Forced Updates To Firmware
Electric Vehicles Cause tion are starting to change as more players
autonomous vehicle programs. Nonetheless, provide pay-per-use structures, such as and Software
Electricity Demand Spikes
GM-backed Cruise delayed the 2019 launch ride, bike, scooter and car-sharing services. When a provider like Microsoft or Google
Cars, trucks and buses aren’t the only
of its autonomous taxi service in San Fran- Ride-sharing services like Uber, Lyft, Via, changes a keyboard shortcut or switches
vehicles driving battery-powered transpor-
cisco to focus on further testing, without and Gett are relatively well established, but the delete and archive button, the result can
tation. Motorized bicycles, hoverboards,
citing a new launch date. the business model goes beyond cars. There be a lot of frustration. Now consider when
electric skateboards and battery-powered
are micro-mobility providers of electric and Tesla moves the horn or brake pedal… the
scooters are growing in popularity because
non-electric bicycles—Citi Bike, Mobike, Ofo, result can be significantly more problematic.
their business models appeal to younger
Lime—and electric scooter companies—Bird, Or imagine there is a billing hiccup and your
consumers who want to own less and want
Spin, Lime, Skip— and full-size gas and access to safety features is disabled during
to live in cities that are becoming denser.

a road trip. In an ideal world, software that is Corvette when the car battery failed. Both that use autopilot have begun to reach ing safer and easier to manage the last
always updated would be the safest and best vehicles had manual door release mecha- critical mass with an estimated total lifetime mile of logistics using a small autonomous
experience possible. But software updates nisms designed as a fallback for electronic production of 200,000 electric vehicles. It delivery vehicle. Nuro, a startup founded
are often required and cannot be stopped. failure, but neither man could find the is only with these higher autonomous miles by former Google engineers, is developing
As more products are released in an evolving release mechanism. To make matters more that we begin to see shortcomings in the autonomous vehicles for last-mile deliveries
transportation platform, new features and tragic, one of the victims had the vehicle early algorithms for autonomous vehicles— including take-out, groceries, laundry and
functionality will be added via over-the-air owner's manual yet still couldn’t release the mainly the challenge of identifying sta- packages. JD.com developed robots that
firmware updates at a later date. Providers mechanism. What happens when cars no tionary objects that results in catastrophic delivered packages in June 2017. SoftBank
must increasingly learn to navigate the longer come with physical user manuals or crashes. The network effect—drawing big and Toyota created a joint venture to create
difficult path of introducing new features if firmware updates change the product so data from autonomous car use—will be autonomous vehicles to deliver robot-made
and improving customer experiences while much that physical manuals are no longer important to designing the safest auton- meals. They target the late 2020s to be in
balancing legacy experiences and muscle accurate? As vehicles become more auto- omous vehicles, which will, in turn, drive the market. Dominos and Ford are testing
memory. mated and require less mechanical know- consumer preference. For manufacturers, self-driving delivery technology in Las Ve-
how, consumers will focus more on other autonomous algorithms mustn’t be a “winner gas, Ann Arbor, Michigan and Miami. Auton-
Analog Fallbacks elements of the transportation. This will take all market” because the developer of omous deliveries will help society transition
allow manufacturers to create new business the best algorithms could resell its IP. As the and adjust to autonomous vehicles on public
The saying, ‘They don’t make them like they
models and drive brand preference with data set underlying autonomous driving gets infrastructure as the vehicles will likely be
used to’ will soon become they literally don’t
less emphasis on mechanical interactions. larger and richer, the quality of the autono- small and slow-moving while delivering
make them like they used to and they can’t
Hopefully, manufacturers self-regulate and mous driving should get better too.The data delightful experiences.
be repaired like they used to.
ensure that emergency manual fallbacks are collected from miles driven with autono-
As more functionality becomes digital- consistent and clearly indicated. mous technology will begin to grow expo- Mixed-Use Sidewalks and Drone
ly based, manual fallbacks will become nentially as the install base reaches critical Lanes
more obscure and non-intuitive, leading Exponential Growth in mass—and that should rapidly accelerate the
to increasingly catastrophic failures when Our outdoor spaces are changing fast.
Autonomous Miles Data improvement of driving algorithms.
digital systems fail. Car locks, which are Sidewalks now have pedestrian and electric
increasingly dependent on electricity, can More than 90% of traffic deaths are caused scooter traffic. Small delivery drones drive
by human error. The traditional theory of
Autonomous Last Mile Logistics alongside cars and trucks. Smart cameras
become inoperable when the car battery
runs out. There are plenty of examples: A algorithm development, meanwhile, dictates The first truly autonomous vehicles won’t be and sensors are being used to detect how
man was trapped in his Cadillac for 13 hours that the larger and richer the data set the transporting humans, but rather goods like we’re moving around our cities, and artificial
and, tragically, a man and his dog died in a better the resulting algorithm. Tesla vehicles pizza. That’s because it’s quickly becom- intelligence systems can produce digital
189
Transportation Trends cont.
twins of city blocks to pressure-test chang- Autonomous Ships

es to traffic flow, population increases and
Early in 2018, an oil tanker caught fire after
public events. For example, Strava Metro is
colliding with another boat in the East China
using the data from runners and cyclists to
Sea, killing more than two dozen people.
help urban planners design safer streets.
Safety is one of many reasons that compa-
nies are looking to automation in shipping.
Supersonic Flights The Yara Birkeland is an electric container
After years of successful trans-Atlantic ship that is supported by radar, LiDAR, ma-
flights, the age of supersonic jet travel came chine learning and computer vision systems,
to an end in October 2003, when British Air- an automatic mooring system and a network
ways permanently grounded the Concorde. for cameras. It is currently on schedule to
Driven in part by the enthusiasm and excite- transition from traditional human-crewed
ment over faster, autonomous travel, these operation to fully autonomous operation
supersonic jets are being tested once again. in 2020. Electric ships that don't require
Japan Airlines has invested $10 million in people would offer cost savings throughout
Boom Technology to develop supersonic the entire shipping supply chain. They could
jets, which will travel at 2.2 times the speed be safer, solve labor shortages, and be bet-
of sound—about twice as fast as a tradition- ter for the environment. The International
al aircraft. (Japanese Airlines has already Maritime Organization has begun a scoping
Waymo's self-driving vehicles are being tested in Phoenix.
pre-ordered 20.) All Nippon Airways is also exercise that will complete in 2020 after
researching supersonic flight. Aerion, Lock- which practical drafting will start and lay the
heed Martin and GE Aviation are developing legal foundation for maritime autonomous
a supersonic business jet that could carry 12 surface ships.
passengers. The new supersonic airplanes
will allow flights to take off over land, which THE IMPACT
because of the sonic boom, had limited the Widespread adoption and use of autono-
success of the original Concorde. Fuel effi- mous vehicles promises fewer accidents,
ciency and safety concerns, however, could lower energy costs, optimized driving effi-
slow getting to market in the short term. ciency and reduced traffic congestion.

THE WATCHLIST
Ace Hardware, Aerion, All Nippon Airlines,
Ample, Audi, auto manufacturers, Avis,
Baidu, Bird, BMW, Boom, Bosch, Citibike,
Delphi Automotive Systems, Dominos,
Driveri, Ecooltra, FAA, Fiat Chrysler, Ford,
GE Aviation, General Motors, General Motors,
General Motors, Get, Hertz, Honda, Hyundai,
infrastructure development players and
investment banks, International Maritime
Organization, Ioscoot, Jaguar Land Rover,
Japan Airlines, JD.com, Kepler.gl, Kia, King
Long, Kongsberg, lime, Lockheed Martin,
Lockheed Martin, Lyft, Marin Teknikk,
Mazda, Mercedes Benz, Mitsubishi, Mo-
bike, NASA, National Oceanic Atmospheric
Administration, Nissan, Nissan, NVIDIA, Ofo,
Otto, Peterbilt, Porsche, Postmates, public
utility companies, Rolls-Royce, Sidewalk
Labs, Skip, Softbank, Solar Roadways, Spin,
Starsky Robotics, Strava Metro, Subaru, Tes-
la, TomTom, Toyota, Turo, U.S. Army, Uber,
Via, Virgin Group, Vision Zero NYC, Volkswa-
gen, Volkswagen, Volvo, VW, Waymo, Waze.
191
16 Logistics
& Supply Chain
194 Automating the
Supply Chain
195 Sustainability in Supply
Chain and Logistics
196 Rebuilding the Cold Chain
197 Additive Manufacturing
and Printing
193
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Automating the Supply Chain
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight
5G networks and new autonomous robots
leads the market in automated robots and
now relies on a host of automated systems “Just because
in its warehouses.
and vehicles will help optimize warehouse
management. What’s Next
something works
Why It Matters Now in the midst of a transformation, the doesn’t mean
robotics industry will drastically impact the
Autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and
autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) will
supply chain. Some researchers anticipate that it can’t be
that 6 million mobile robots will be shipped
become more commonplace in 2020, which
will bring cost-savings and efficiencies for
within the next decade, shifting every sec- improved.”
tor of the global economy.
Autonomous mobile robots are performing businesses.
more work in warehouses.
The Impact - Shuri in Black Panther
Examples
Mobile automation in the supply chain is a
For the past few decades, robots have
quickly maturing market. While this means
assisted humans with repetitive tasks.
greater efficiencies and cost savings for
But in 2020, we will see a new class of
businesses, it also portends job losses for
autonomous robots and vehicles running
workers who operate warehouse equipment.
on A.I.-powered logistics systems. Rather
than relying on LiDAR SLAM (Simultaneous Watchlist
Localization And Mapping), a new class of
Amazon Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Kuka
robots use computer vision and A.I. In a
Robotics, Mobile Industrial Robots, Okura,
warehouse setting, autonomous mobile
Omron, Rethink Robots, Robotic Industries
robots assign global tasks, set paths and
Association, Universal Robots.
optimize tasks like picking. Amazon Robot-
ics, which acquired Kiva Systems in 2012,

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Sustainability in Supply
STRATEGY NOW
Chain and Logistics REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight targets. The Zero Discharge of Hazardous air pollution, deforestation, water shortag-
Chemicals Programme (ZDHC), the Sus- es, flooding, and worker health and safety
Pressure from investors, customers, and
tainable Apparel Coalition, and the Outdoor issues make procurement less predictable.
governments—in addition to extreme weath-
Industry Association are all working toward Regulators, too, are beginning to impose
er events and trade tensions—has resulted
sustainability goals in the apparel industry. new restrictions on product development,
in new efforts to build sustainability into the
Some say that 2019 was the year that sus- manufacturing and shipping.
supply chain for many companies.
tainability finally burst onto mainstream for
the fashion industry. Esquel, a textile giant The Impact
Why It Matters
in Hong Kong, is working to make the apparel The next decade will present significant
A company’s supply chain and logistics
supply chain more environmentally friendly, opportunities for companies in manufactur-
system can greatly impact the environment,
and a number of designers including Gucci ing and consumer goods, as well as for those
Tetra Pak responds to sustainability shifts human rights, and anti-corruption policies.
and Kanye West made sustainability pledges that manage logistics. Sustainability factors
with renewable packaging.
last year. will impact growth and investor returns.
Examples
Swedish packaging company Tetra Pak What’s Next Watchlist
requires third-party verification that its pa-
Improving environmental, social, and Companies in the fashion, consumer goods,
perboard suppliers do not use wood from any
economic performance throughout sup- shipping and manufacturing industries.
form of deforestation that breaks the natural
ply chains enables companies to find cost
forestry cycle. A company cannot supply Tet-
savings, as well as opportunities to increase
ra Pak if it fails to meet these requirements.
productivity and optimize processes and
Japanese chemical and cosmetics company
systems. Building sustainable practices
KAO has been actively encouraging suppliers
into logistics and the supply chain may be
to reduce CO2 emissions; at least 80% of
an aspiration today, but in the near future,
its suppliers have set emissions reduction
it may be a requirement as extreme heat,
195
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Rebuilding the Cold Chain
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight the right temperature range during the trek political uncertainty, companies that use or
from farm, to factory, to the store. But in rely on the cold chain should be invested in
Cold chains are temperature-controlled
some areas of the world, the cold chain has long-term planning.
supply chains. We rely on them to deliver
contributed to climate change.
everything that requires low temperatures, Watchlist
such as medications, produce, and frozen What’s Next AGRO Merchants Group, Americold, Cold
foods.
If the temperature fluctuates or the cold Storage, Emergent Cold, Gardner Denver
Why It Matters storage fails, that puts a cold chain’s cargo Holdings, Ingersoll-Rand, Kloosterboer,
in jeopardy. Products could be contaminat- NewCold, Nichirei, Preferred Freezer Ser-
Climate change could result in new regula-
ed or spoiled, which could mean millions vices, Versa Cold.
tions that limit how the cold chain works,
of dollars lost. Companies are beginning to
The cold chain supplies fresh sushi to your but new kinds of intelligent packaging and
look at new sustainability opportunities to
local grocery store. automated transportation systems mean
improve the cold chain. One area of interest
new business opportunities.
is artificial intelligence in the cloud, which
Examples can help monitor temperatures and can also
optimize travel routes. New packaging ma-
For decades we’ve had access to fresh
terials insulate food and medicine, keeping
blueberries in February and fresh-squeezed
both at low temperatures without having to
orange juice throughout the year. Your local
refrigerate entire trucks.
grocery store probably sells sushi featuring
raw tuna and salmon farmed halfway around The Impact
the world. The reason we can enjoy ice
We put an enormous amount of trust in the
cream in the heat of the summer is the cold
cold chain to protect the food and medi-
chain: a complicated system of storing and
cines we ingest. In a rapidly changing world
transporting food and medicine in exactly
with ongoing climate, economic and geo-

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Additive Manufacturing
STRATEGY NOW
and Printing REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight must meet stringent requirements for The Impact

parts use. Last year, Airbus and Materialize
Additive manufacturing allows us to create We don’t yet have international product
created the first 3D-printed parts intended
objects one layer at a time, and we can now liability and intellectual property standards,
for use in the cabins of Airbus’s commercial
do this using different materials. norms, and regulations that govern additive
aircraft. And soon, “one size fits all” will take
manufacturing and printing. A regulatory
Why It Matters on a whole new meaning. If you’re thinking
framework built to protect designers, pat-
Star Trek Replicator, you’re not far off. Re-
3D printing has moved from the fringe to ents, corporations and individuals is likely
searchers are working toward scanning and
the mainstream, offering new opportunities on the horizon.
producing objects in seconds—over time,
The electric Zeus motorcycle was produced in medical and biosciences, manufacturing
this technology will be used in surgical cen- Watchlist
using additive manufacturing. and art.
ters to rapidly print replacement valves and
Autodesk, Materialize, Kodak, Ethereal Ma-
joints using your own biomatter as models.
Examples chines, Northwestern University’s Feinberg
This year, a street-legal motorcycle pro- What’s Next School of Medicine, University College Cork,
duced using additive manufacturing pro- Apis Cor, Organovo, MIT Media Lab, Airbus,
Last year, Chinese researchers successfully
cesses will come to market. Curtiss Motor- GE, Formlabs, Aurora Labs, Arc Group,
printed ceramics capable of transforming
cycle Company and additive manufacturing ExOne, Voxeljet, Stratasys, HP, Shapeways,
over time in response to stimuli such as
company Fast Radius collaborated on the MakerBot, University of Illinois Urbana,
heat and light. It’s a process known as 4D
electric bike, which uses parts that require University College London.
printing, and the practical applications
a hybrid of manufacturing approaches—in-
are boundless. Imagine a heat shield that
cluding 3D printing.
suddenly materializes during a fire, or a gar-
Growth in new materials printing has made den that plants itself when the ground has
3D printing a viable resource in the aero- warmed to precisely the ideal temperature
space and automotive industries, which for each seed.
197
17 Energy
200 Grid Management
201 Reversing Environmental
Rules and Regulations
202 Green Tech
203 Renewable Energy
204 Charging Stations
205 Ultra-High-Voltage Direct
Current and Macro Grids
206 Better Batteries
Wireless Charging
207
Everywhere
207 Energy Trading Platforms
for Blockchain
207 Zero Carbon Natural Gas
207 Floating Nuclear
Energy Plants
207 Subsea Power Grids
199
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Grid Management
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Fire in California. The blaze spread quickly What’s Next The Impact
and devastated thousands of homes and
In many countries, the electric grid is Researchers have been studying new ways When the grid fails, it can cost millions of
businesses. In the aftermath, Pacific Gas &
a sprawling network of generators and to address grid management challenges. dollars, wreak havoc on public safety ser-
Electric, California's biggest utility, decided
connectors that links citizens to energy For example, MIT completed an interdisci- vices, and put lives in danger.
to begin cutting power in anticipation of
distributed by government agencies and plinary study on the future of the grid and
weather conditions—like fast, dry winds— Watchlist
private companies. Increased demands for outlined a series of steps that could be
that could lead to more of its lines going
power, combined with a failure to maintain taken now to preempt anticipated issues, ABB Group, American Electric Power, Cisco
down. In October last year, the company
or expand these grids, will pose new chal- including ways to incentivize renewables, Systems, Dominion Resources, Electric
abruptly cut power to 800,000 customers,
lenges over the next two decades. introduce computational tools to make Power Research Institute, Enel, Exelon
which resulted in blackouts throughout San
better predictions about usage, explore Corporation, General Electric, IBM, ISO New
Why It Matters Jose, Berkeley, San Mateo and Oakland.
new methods for wide-area transmission England, Lahore University of Management
Climate change has resulted in drier, hotter
Utility companies aren’t repairing and mod- planning, and seize opportunities for energy Sciences, Masdar Institute, Microsoft, MIT
weather in some parts of the world, while in
ernizing their equipment fast enough. In conservation. We will start to see faster Energy Initiative, National Grid, National
other areas ice has become more common.
the wake of climate change and new power deployment of “microgrids,” which can Institute of Standards and Technology, New
The problem: Our power networks weren’t
demands, managing the grid is proving diffi- operate autonomously using artificial intel- York ISO, Nexant, Pacific Gas & Electric,
designed with these new environmental
cult. And, like many countries, the does not ligence and can offer energy in developing Tesla, Southern Company, Utility Wind
realities in mind.
currently have a comprehensive national countries, where as many as a billion people Integration Group, Harvard Electricity Policy
electricity policy and isn’t engaged in long- Another big change on the horizon: lots of still live without electricity. Companies like Group, and local and national governments
term planning in this field. new power-hungry devices. Electric vehicles San Diego-based XENDEE and WorleyPar- worldwide.
will soon be everywhere, which will cause a sons Group have developed cloud software
Examples spike in electricity demand. So will stream- tools for microgrids. And energy storage
ing services, distributed computing appli- will improve—scientists in Germany and
In 2019, a broken jumper wire from a trans-
cations, connected home appliances, and at Northwestern University in Chicago, for
mission tower started the historic Kincade
many other technological advancements. instance, are making advances in “singlet
fission” technology to generate more elec-
tricity from solar cells.
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Reversing Environmental
STRATEGY NOW
Rules and Regulations REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight fired power plants and instead allowed Impact

states to set their own rules. It also relaxed
While citizens are demanding action on Climate change impacts our global supply of
a Clinton-era regulation that limited toxic
climate change, some governments around food, human health, and our ability to work
industrial emissions. And it cut the reach of
the world are now relaxing or eliminating and move around, and disrupts the complex
the Clean Water Act, removing millions of
rules and regulations designed to mitigate ecosystems in which we live.
miles of streams and about half of America’s
human-caused environmental damage.
wetlands from federal protection. Brazil’s Watchlist
Why It Matters President Jair Bolsonaro, a climate skeptic,
United Nations, as well as companies and
has pushed to open the Amazon rainforest
Thousands of scientists are warning that as governments worldwide.
to business and agribusiness. When fires
temperatures and sea levels rise faster than
ravaged the rainforests last year, he dis-
Climate change protestors hold their originally projected, the impact of climate
missed conservation efforts and said that
placards high. change will drastically change life as we
pro-conservation NGOs had intentionally
know it.
set the fires in an effort to undermine him.
Examples What’s Next

New research from Columbia Law School,
There are a number of global initiatives de-
Harvard Law School and the New York
signed to combat and mitigate the effects of
Times revealed that the Trump admin-
climate change, but ultimately each country
istration has rolled back more than 90
designs and implements its own regulations.
environmental rules and regulations since
The United Nations Global Compact initia-
taking office. It replaced the Obama-era
tive is trying a different route, helping the
Clean Power Plan, which set strict limits
world’s corporations to achieve sustainable
on carbon emissions from coal and gas-
development goals by 2030.
201
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Green Tech
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight within China, but also for its export partners solar panels, which are bulky and run afoul of Watchlist
around the world. Wind and solar energy are some neighborhood association covenants,
Sustainable technologies are built to reduce 8minuteenergy, ABB Ltd, Akcome Science
getting a lift: Billionaire Philip Anschutz, bio-inspired cell panels are much thinner
the human species' short- and long-term & Technology Co, Amazon, Apple, Ar-
who built his fortunes in oil and railroads, and discreet, and work more efficiently.
impact on the environment. gonne-Northwestern Solar Energy Research
plans to build large-scale wind farms in Wy- European scientists developed a new kind of
(ANSER) Center, Atlantica Yield PLC, Canadi-
Why It Matters oming, while tech billionaire Elon Musk will wind turbine that transmits energy using a
an Solar Inc, CropEnergies AG, Cypress Creek
work with a number of companies to build superconductor. The EcoSwing project uses
Climate change and new regulatory efforts Renewables, EcoPlexus, Emerson Electric,
attractive solar panels that look more like high temperature superconductors and has
could force us to look for new, sustainable Energcon, Energy Acuity, First Solar Inc, First
slate shingles than the reflective rectan- already passed readiness tests for commer-
sources of energy. Wind Solar, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
gles we’ve seen to date—he, and others, are cial use. Heliogen, a startup backed by Bill
Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Gamesa, GCL-Po-
also developing new methods to create and Gates, developed a new system to collect
Examples ly Energy Holding Ltd., GE, Global Pvq SE,
store energy using battery systems. A team solar energy and concentrate its power.
This past January, Microsoft pledged it Google, Hanergy Thin Film Power Group Ltd.,
of researchers at Massachusetts Institute Large mirror panels point toward the sun—
would be carbon negative in the next 10 Hecate Energy, Inox Wind, Intersect Power,
of Technology is developing offshore wind and toward each other—for a multiplying
years, and launched a $1 billion climate JIANGS, Johnson Controls, Makani, Massa-
turbines that can store power on the ocean effect, which produces heat topping 1,000
innovation fund. Also in January, Black- chusetts Institute of Technology, Ming Yang,
floor in huge concrete spheres. Makani, re- degrees Celsius. Concentrated solar power
Rock—the world’s largest asset manager Motech, NextEra Energy, Nordex, Orsted,
cently acquired by Google X, makes high-al- can be used in industrial applications, like
with more than $7 trillion under manage- Pacific Ethanol, Panasonic, Power Company
titude kites to harness wind energy. melting steel, but the hope is that someday
ment—announced that climate change of Wyoming, Recurrent Energy, Renew-
it can be stored and distributed as needed.
would be a primary focus in all of its future What’s Next able Energy Group, Samsung, Saudi Arabia
investment decisions. Meanwhile, China is Impact government, Schneider Electric, Siemens,
Researchers at University of California-Los
installing a record number of solar projects SoftBank, SolarCity, sPower, Suzlon Group,
Angeles built bio-mimicking smart mate- Green tech is still a young market, but
and wind turbines to deal with the country’s SunPower, Tesla, Toyota, United Power, Ves-
rial that bends to follow the sun. Think of plenty of new technologies and scientific
crippling smog. The Chinese government tas Wind Systems, Vestas, WorleyParsons
the technology as a responsive, artificial breakthroughs have people excited. Talk of
will invest $560 billion over the next year to Group, XENDEE, Xinjiang Goldwind Science
sunflower that can harvest energy and send regulation and global initiatives on climate
make green tech more accessible not only and Technology.
it back to the grid. Compared to traditional change have garnered investor interest,
which will likely grow in 2020 and beyond.
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Renewable Energy
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight What’s Next nergy, MidAmerican Energy Anemos Energy

Corporation, NextEra Energy, Ormat Tech-
Renewable energy is collected from sources Renewables will take on greater importance
nologies, Orsted, Pattern Energy, Siemens,
that can be replenished on a reasonable in the coming decade. The International
SolarEdge, TerraForm Power, Tesla, U.S.
timescale. Renewables include wind, tides, Energy Agency projects renewables will
Department of Energy, U.S. Energy Informa-
geothermal heat, and sunlight. account for about 40% of energy distributed
tion Administration.
through the global power grid by 2040. In the
Why It Matters next five years, we should see faster growth
Last year, 400 global corporations commit- in green tech than ever seen previously.
ted to climate protection and sustainability
goals, while 63 promised to convert their Impact
The UN’s sustainable development goals energy use to 100% renewables. The amount of clean, renewable energy
include a focus on renewable energy bought by some of the world’s largest
sources. Examples companies has tripled since 2018. The U.S.
More than 100 cities across the globe report Energy Information Administration says that
that as much as 70% of their energy produc- renewables are “the fastest growing source
tion now comes from renewables, and at of electricity generation.”
least 40 cities and 158 companies com-
mitted to dial that up to 100%. Hundreds Watchlist
more—both cities and countries— pledged Acciona Energia, Alterra Power, Atlantica
to move to renewable energy production. Yield, Avangrid Renewables, Berkshire
Even oil-rich Saudi Arabia is working on a Hathaway Energy, Brookfield Renewable
detailed, long-term plan to help diversify its Partners, Enphase Energy, First Solar, GE
economy and move away from oil. Energy, International Energy Agency, Inve-
203
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Charging Stations
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Building new charging stations involves What’s Next from several hours down to 10 minutes. (See
plenty of red tape with local utilities and real also: Better Batteries.)
In the coming years, an unprecedented To help EVs really take off, though, some-
estate. Most networks are being installed
number of charging stations for electric one needs to reinvent the battery—and Impact
by governments, utilities, and third-par-
vehicles will come online, driving demand that’s starting to happen. Spanish startup
ty companies. California leads the way: As more charging stations expand into
for a new kind of car and disrupting the Graphenano built a battery out of graphene
Former Governor Jerry Brown promised to communities everywhere, it will start to
traditional gasoline supply chain and retail that charges a car in eight minutes, and will
get 5 million electric vehicles on the road have a chilling effect on independent and
business. open the first battery manufacturing plant
by 2030 and 250,000 EV chargers in the corporate gasoline station chains, as well as
using this material. Solid state batteries
Why It Matters ground by 2025. Oklahoma, New York, and on the local communities that are support-
promise to be safer, cheaper, and boost the
Colorado state governments also recent- ed by them.
Auto manufacturers are investing $225 amount of energy a battery cell can store—
ly unveiled plans to invest in networks of
billion to electrify their fleets in the next few not to mention they may help cars charge
electric charging stations. Electrify America Watchlist
years. faster. Such batteries also promise to bring
will put charging stations in 100 Walmarts Blink CarCharging, BP, ChargePoint, Chevron
the driving range for an electric vehicle
in 34 states. The nation’s largest charging
Examples more in line with what you’d get on a full Corporation, China National Petroleum Cor-
company, ChargePoint, will open 2.5 million poration, ConocoPhillips, Electrify America,
Ford launched an all-electric F-150 pickup tank of gas. By using solid materials instead
charging stalls by 2025, up from 53,000 Envision Solar, EV car manufacturers world-
truck and the electric Mustang Mach-E. of flammable liquids in batteries, automak-
according to the company. Another compa- wide, Exxon Mobil, Google, Ionity, Kuwait
General Motors will launch 20 new EV ers could benefit, because most existing
ny, EVgo, created a modular fast-charging Petroleum Corporation, Lukoil, Petro China,
models by 2023, and BMW, Nissan, Jaguar, electric vehicle batteries have hit the limits
station that can be installed in a matter PlugShare, Royal Dutch Shell, Royal Farms,
Porsche, Audi, Volkswagen, Volvo, and Tesla of their storage capabilities. Plenty are
of days. Google Maps, ChargePoint and Saudi Aramco, SemaConnect, Sinopec, Sun-
introduced EVs this past year, with more working on the task, including Daimler AG,
PlugShare will make it easier for people to cor Energy, Tesla, the state governments for
models to come. There are now more than Fisker Inc., Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. in
find those electric vehicle charging stations Colorado, California, New York, New Jersey,
20,000 charging stations and 1,600 Tesla China, and spinoffs from the Massachusetts
from their smartphones, see the types of and Oklahoma, Valero Energy, vendors to gas
Supercharger stations in the U.S., and more Institute of Technology, Stanford University,
charging ports and prices and then rate and stands, Volkswagen, Wawa.
are being built this year. and Tokyo Institute of Technology. If they’re
review them.
successful, EV charging times could drop

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Ultra-High-Voltage Direct
STRATEGY NOW
Current and Macro Grids REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples the country, which on its own can carry half
the power needed to serve the entire coun-
In the near-future, we will transport clean In the U.S. and throughout Europe, electric-
try of Spain. China has made it known that
energy from production sites to areas ity is generated at a power station and then
it plans to transport clean energy all around
where power is needed using a new kind of transmitted using alternating current. But
the world, and its Belt and Road Initiative
power grid being tested in China. that technology is inefficient over very long
could help in that effort. Fifty years from
distances, and even smart grids haven’t al-
The Impact now, it’s conceivable that we’re all reliant on
ways been able to cope with climate change
China—rather than OPEC countries (Saudi
Ultra-High-Voltage Direct Current can carry and our increasing consumer demands for
Arabia, the UAE, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Ku-
electricity farther with less loss, which heat and air conditioning. A new kind of
wait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Algeria, Angola,
will help feed China’s relentless hunger for transmission system—ultra-high-voltage
and Ecuador)—for our energy needs.
China’s major ultra-high-voltage power. In addition to China, UHVDC will help direct current (UHVDC)—is being tested
transmission system is underway. large countries like Brazil and India deliver in China, which has invested $88 billion to Watchlist
more power longer distances, which will build the future of UHVDCs and macro grids.
AGTransWest Express Transmission Proj-
help stimulate economic growth. India has made a similar investment.
ect, ABB, China, GE, Hitachi, India, Mitsub-
Why It Matters What’s Next ishi Electric Corporation, Siemens, U.S.
Department of Energy, and OPEC member
A national direct-current macro grid could China has already moved ahead of the U.S.
nations.
drastically lower emissions in an affordable in developing this technology and is invest-
way without compromising our access to ing heavily in green technologies. The first
electricity. 800,000-volt line, from a dam in Yunnan
Province to Shanghai, has already been
completed. Next up, the Changji Guquan
system, spanning the east-west expanse of
205
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Better Batteries
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight at Ritsumeikan University and Panasonic are Impact

trying to squeeze the last bits of untapped
It’s a common first-world problem: Our Battery improvements will drive growth in
energy out of lithium-ion batteries.
devices never seem to have enough battery consumer electronics and electric vehicles.
life, and just when we need power the most, What’s Next
we either forget our chargers or can’t find a Watchlist
The problem with modern batteries isn’t
spot to plug in. Alphabet, Baseload Renewables, Daim-
about making the power—it’s about how
ler AG, Energous Corp, Fisker Inc., Form
Why It Matters to store enough of it. Startup Ossia Inc.
Energy, Founders Fund, General Motors,
built a wireless charging system that can
Building a better battery has been an elusive Graphenano, Huawei, Ionic Materials, Ji-
power AA batteries from 30 feet away. Form
challenge for decades—but we could make angxi Ganfeng Lithium Co, Khosla Ventures,
Energy is trying to develop a “bidirectional
new headway in the coming years. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT
power plant” that stores energy long-term,
Department of Materials Science and Engi-
Morpheus describes the future of batteries Examples producing renewable energy and delivering
neering, Nissan, Ossia Inc, Qualcomm, Solid
in The Matrix. it precisely when it is needed. Meanwhile,
Researchers at Monash University developed Firm, Tesla, the Federal Communications
at Google X, a new project called Malta aims
a lithium-sulphur battery that can power Commission, Tokyo Institute of Technology,
to capture more clean energy produced by
a smartphone for up to five days, outper- Toyota, University of California-Irvine, US
using salt, and to store it on a large scale.
forming lithium-ion batteries. IBM research- Department of Energy.
Malta incorporates a grid-scale energy stor-
ers developed a new kind of battery with
age technology that saves electricity from
materials extracted from sea water instead
renewable energy sources as heat inside
of heavy metals like cobalt. Lithium-ion
large tanks of high temperature molten salt,
batteries have limits, which is why research-
and as cold in large tanks of chilled liquid.
ers at the University of California-Irvine are
The system can discharge electricity back
experimenting with gold nanowires housed in
to the grid when energy demand is high—ef-
a gel electrolyte, which can last significantly
fectively “time shifting” energy from when
longer than today’s batteries. And scientists
it’s produced to when it’s most needed.

Additional Energy Trends
 TRENDS and lower costs because there is no central Floating Nuclear Energy Plants
intermediary processing and verifying
In an attempt to increase nuclear prolifer-
Wireless Charging Everywhere transactions. Meantime, a consortium that
ation, Russia is working on a new kind of
includes BP and Shell is now developing a
Laptops, earphones, mobile devices, and energy plant that can float and move with
blockchain-based platform to trade energy
even portable batteries will be chargeable currents, thereby withstanding certain
commodities.
without wires in the coming years. This year harsh environments. A barge called the
we should see rollout of universal wireless Akademik Lomonosov is loaded with two
chargers capable of powering our devic-
Zero Carbon Natural Gas nuclear reactors and in 2020 will produce
es. Samsung phones now charge without In the future, we could see a natural gas enough energy to power 100,000 homes in
wires—and can even transfer battery power plant capable of capturing all of its emis- the nearby town of Pevek.
to other similar phones. Energysquare and sions at zero cost using a technology called
Unravel offer wireless charging for multiple carbon capture and storage, or CSS. While Subsea Power Grids
devices at once. the tech has been around for decades, it
Siemens and ABB are each building a
hasn't been deployed at scale. Last July,
new kind of distribution center underwa-
Energy Trading Platforms U.S. startup Net Power successfully built a
ter. Their subsea power stations would
for Blockchain prototype plant that ran a full power cycle
connect to wind turbines, generators, or
without releasing troublesome emissions
In 2018, companies in Singapore started power plants and could someday enable
into the air. It plans to scale up to a full-size
buying and selling renewable energy certifi- underwater factories. These power grids
plant by 2021. Wider adoption will likely be
cates on a blockchain-powered system. Like include transformers, switch-gear and
driven by new tax credits of up to $50 for
carbon trading in other markets, Singa- variable-speed drives, and cabling so that
each metric ton of emissions captured and In the future, we could see a natural gas
pore’s system, launched by utilities provider operators back on land can monitor and
stored by a power plant or factory. plant capable of capturing all of its emis-
SP Group, allows for more transparency adjust all of the systems. Testing should sions at zero cost using a technology called
begin this year. carbon capture and storage, or CSS.
207
18 Climate & Geoscience
210 The Anthropocene Epoch 216 Reflecting Sunlight
211 Unpredictable Sea 217 Sand for Glacier Melt
Level Rise
217 Fertilizing the Oceans
212 Extreme Weather Events
217 Enzymes to Eat Ocean Trash
214 Human Migration
Patterns Shift
Corporate Environmental
218
Responsibility
215 Geoengineering
Sustainability as Corporate
219
216 Storing Captured Carbon Identity
with Algae and Bacteria
219 Corporates Adopt
216 Converting Carbon Dioxide Net-Zero Energy
into Building Materials
219 Sustainable Shipping
216 Stratospheric Aerosol
Scattering with Sulfur
219 Corporate Meteorologists
Dioxide 219 Reducing Corporate
Reliance on Plastics
216 Injecting Clouds with
Sea Salt Particles
209
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
The Anthropocene Epoch
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight 2018. While much debate ensued, we are Impact

now seeing concrete, publicly-available
We are in a new geological epoch defined Recognizing that humans have made a
research corroborating the designation.
by the permanent impact that humans have permanent, visible mark on the earth is the
Scientists within the AWG and outside have
had on Earth. first step in studying the future implications
determined that humans have left a perma-
for our planet.
Why It Matters nent mark on the planet. The new geolog-
ical layers we are creating are riddled with Watchlist
A new epoch is defined following a cataclys-
chemicals and industrial waste, pavement,
mic event—like the asteroid that collided Anthropocene Working Group, International
plastic, nuclear fallout, everyday garbage,
with Earth and led to the mass extinction of Union of Geological Sciences, The Nature
pesticide runoff and more. We’ve caused
the dinosaurs. Such events significantly and Conservancy, Union of Concerned Scien-
our sea levels to rise and our lakes and riv-
Earth’s new geological layers show that permanently alter the underlying sedimen- tists, U.S. Geological Survey.
ers to dry up, and extreme weather events
humans have left a permanent mark on tary and rock layers beneath the surface of
are now a normal part of living on Earth.
the planet. the planet, resulting in visible, measurable
changes. What’s Next
Examples The “Anthropocene” (anthro for “man,” and
cene for “new”) describes a new geographic
An international, independent team of
epoch. (Our previous epoch, which began
scientists, called the Anthropocene Work-
11,700 years ago just after the last ice age,
ing Group (AWG), has now found enough
was called the “Holocene.”) Being able to
evidence to support the official declaration
pinpoint an interval of time and the change
of a new geological epoch. The group, com-
it represents can help us set a different—
prised of scientists who were in favor of, as
and hopefully improved—trajectory for life
well as those who were against declaring
on Earth.
a new epoch, reached a consensus in early

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Unpredictable, Rising Sea Levels
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Vegas, and rural Midwestern areas will see To protect from future flooding, the San Watchlist
a disproportionately large influx of people Francisco International Airport plans to con-
We’re getting better at understanding how British-American International Thwaites
relative to their smaller local populations. struct a $587 million, 10-mile-long wall. In
ice sheets and sea levels change over time. Glacier Collaboration, Columbia University,
New York, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
This year, there will be more focus on trying What’s Next NASA, NOAA, Union of Concerned Scien-
is studying how to build a six-mile-long
to measure and interpret the rate of change. tists, United Nations Intergovernmental
The federal Global Change Research barrier to protect the city from floodwaters
Panel on Climate Change.
Why It Matters Program predicts that we’ll continue to during future storms. The Union of Con-
experience heavier rainfall in the North- cerned Scientists reports that the Gulf of
Rising sea levels could reshape countries
eastern United States and around the globe. Mexico and East Coast of the United States
and trigger mass-scale human migration.
We’ll see sea levels continue to rise in the are experiencing some of the world's fastest
next century, perhaps by as much as eight rates of sea level rise. The group estimates
Examples
feet. (Almost half of the 8-inch increase that rising sea levels will put more than
Last year’s historic floods ruined millions 300,000 coastal homes and 14,000 com-
since 1900 occurred in just the last 25 years.)
of acres of farmland, while coastal flooding mercial properties at risk by 2045, and by
Meanwhile, earlier spring snowmelt and
wreaked havoc in Alabama and Mississippi. the end of the century, more than $1 trillion
reduced snowpack will lead to chronic, long-
Blame warming temperatures. Scientists worth of property could be impacted.
term drought. Glaciers around the world
are developing new methods and models
are melting at alarming rates—but trying to
to understand changing sea levels, and
predict how quickly large chunks will slide Impact
artificial intelligence may help predict
into the oceans has proven challenging for It is difficult to overstate how significantly The Graveyard Point neighborhood in
sea level rise and new human migration
researchers. One of the research missions rising sea levels will impact human and Central Texas after historic rainfall flooded
patterns. Researchers at the University of
kicking off in 2019 will take 100 scientists to animal migration, our global supply of food, the region.
Southern California built a machine learning
the Thwaites Glacier, where they will learn and our ability to move around. Insurers,
model that shows a ripple effect across the
more about melting ice from Antarctica city planners, businesses with global supply
United States: As sea levels rise, people will
and how soon it could increase sea levels chains, and any business that relies on or
move to land-locked urban centers such as
to a high enough point that coastal areas— provides logistics should be monitoring this
Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Las
Manhattan included—could be threatened. trend carefully.
211
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Extreme Weather Events
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight in July 2019, the worst wildfires in decades superstorms including Hurricane Barry,
ravaged Australia, devastating large swaths Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Storm Imelda,
An extreme weather event falls outside the
of the country, leading to at least 28 human and Tropical Storm Fernand caused more
norms of typical fluctuations in weather
deaths and 3,000 destroyed or damaged than $7 billion worth of damage.
patterns. They became a more frequent and
homes. By January 2020, the country’s
pronounced worldwide phenomenon in 2017, A 2019 report by the Bulletin of the Ameri-
capital city of Canberra declared a state of
and we have been experiencing them since. can Meteorological Society (BAMS) con-
emergency, due to encroaching fires. For-
firmed the link between the earth’s rising
Why It Matters ests continued to burn in Alaska, California,
temperature and extreme weather events.
Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Africa, while
2019 was one of the most disastrous years BAMS relied on a team of 120 scientists
flooding wreaked havoc on Arkansas, Lou-
on record for extreme weather events, with from 10 different countries and used his-
Australia recorded record-high tempera- isiana, Mississippi and Missouri last year.
floods, landslides, cyclones, tornados, and torical observations and model simulations
tures in the past year. The darker red the The Greenland ice sheet melted significant-
excessive heat that displaced more than to produce the 17 peer-reviewed analyses
map is, the higher above average the tem- ly, while huge expanses of the Arctic had lit-
7 million people in the first half of the year collected in the special report.
perature is. tle to no ice for long periods of time. In 2018,
Data from December 2019. alone. By year’s end, more than a billion
the Mendicino Complex Fire became the What’s Next
animals had died due to Australia’s fires.
largest in California state history and gave
Extreme weather is our new normal. Re-
birth to a new term: “firenado,” or a whirling
Examples searchers from the Oeschger Center for
column of flames that destroys everything
The past five years on Earth have been the Climate Change Research at Switzerland's
in its path. One such fire vortex topped out
hottest on record. Our globe’s surface air University of Bern reconstructed a global
at 17,000 feet above the earth.
temperature increased by about 1.8 degree picture of temperatures for the past 2,000
Researchers at NOAA National Centers years. Using six different statistical models,
Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) over the last
for Environmental Information found that they found that while there have been short
115 years, making it now the warmest it’s
storms are moving more slowly than they periods of cooler temperatures, overall the
been in the history of modern civilization.
did forty years ago, and that means they’re Earth is warming faster now than during any
We’ve seen a number of record-breaking
sticking around longer and causing more other time in the past two millennia.
climate-related weather extremes. Starting
damage. In 2019, dangerous, slow-moving
Global warming is a serious concern. The repercussions. Insurer Aviva has increased United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel
United Nations' scientific panel on climate its Canadian home-insurance premiums by on Climate Change, European Geoscienc-
change issued a dire report, with scientific 6% since 2016, due partly to research into es Union, University of North Carolina at
models showing that at our current rate, catastrophic risks. Extreme weather will Wilmington, Potsdam Institute for Climate
the atmosphere will warm as much as 1.5 also impact a wide range of sectors, from Impact Research, National Center for Atmo-
degrees Celsius, leading to a dystopian auto repair shops and home improvement spheric Research.
future of food shortages, wildfires, extreme stores to makers of sandbags and portable
winters, a mass die-off of coral reefs, and generators.
more––as soon as 2040. That's just 20 years
from now. Impact
Large natural disasters can slow regional New R&D initiatives, emerging green tech-
economic growth for decades, impact cor- nologies, new climate-focused investment
porate and industrial productivity, and lead strategies and global coalitions could help
to post-traumatic stress among survivors. mitigate extreme weather. Businesses can
Extreme weather can also shift infectious do right by their investors and also do good
disease patterns and compromise food for the planet by curtailing their contribu-
security, safe drinking water supplies, and tions to climate change.
clean air. Economists estimate that bad Get ready for Snowspouts and Firenados.
Watchlist
weather has an impact of $3.8 trillion a year “Snowspouts”—tornadoes spawned from
in the United States alone. It can drive up National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- snow, heavy winds, and low clouds—were
construction costs and cause flight cancel- istration (NOAA), NASA, U.S. Department spotted near Albuquerque last year.
lations. The rise of unpredictable, extreme of Energy, U.S. Department of Homeland
weather will continue to force insurance Security, House Armed Services Subcom- “Firenados”—spinning vortexes of wind
mittee on Emerging Threats and Capabili- and flames—ravaged parts of the U.S. in
companies to recalculate damage, building
ties, Columbia University’s Earth Institute, 2018. One firenado towered 17,000 feet
new models to better estimate the risk and
above the earth.
213
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Human Migration Patterns Shift
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight migrants worldwide and found that people University published a study in the journal South Asia. The World Bank offered a glim-
who applied for asylum between 2000 and Science that predicts climate change could mer of hope: The future may not be as bleak
Climate change is forcing people from their
2014 were increasingly on the move due lead to 1 million climate refugees migrat- if we work now to cut greenhouse gases
homes and communities, which can under-
to “weather shocks.” A study by the Envi- ing into the European Union every year by drastically and plan for the socio-economic
mine a region's economic stability. To date,
ronmental Justice Foundation (EJF) says 2100—creating unimaginable changes to challenges of migrants, improving educa-
we don't have an official designation for
millions of Bangladeshi families could soon our existing cities and infrastructure. The tion, training, and jobs.
“climate change refugees,” but that’s likely
become climate refugees within their own European Justice Forum worked with na-
to change in the near future. Watchlist
countries. It’s a problem that could soon get tional security experts and retired military
Why It Matters worse—a sea level rise of just 1 meter could leaders to model scenarios for the future Center for Migration Studies, Cornell Univer-
result in a 20% loss of Bangladesh’s current of climate change and human migration, sity, Environmental Justice Foundation,
Throughout the world, monsoons,
landmass. And it’s not just Bangladesh that’s and it concluded that the number of climate European Union, National Oceanic and
droughts, and scorching heat are driving
at risk. By 2050, climate change is esti- refugees could soon dwarf the number that Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United
millions of people away from their homes in
mated to force 1.7 million people from their has fled Syria in recent years. We could see Nations, United Nations High Commissioner
search of more hospitable environments—
homes and businesses in low-lying southern a wave of migration from Africa, the Indian for Refugees (NHCR).
which makes climate change a national
regions of Mexico. Nearly 1.5 million Etho- Subcontinent, and from island nations into
security issue.
pians will also need to find new sources of Europe and the U.S.
food and water in the coming decades.
Examples Impact
Hurricane Maria in 2017 triggered a massive What’s Next A recent World Bank report also looked at
exodus from Puerto Rico, causing one of
It would be wise for intergovernmental the problem, projecting climate change
the largest migration events in U.S. history.
organizations to begin talks about adopt- could result in 143 million “climate migrants”
By December that year, an estimated
ing official designation—as well as the by 2050, as people escape crop failure,
215,000 Puerto Ricans had fled the island
corresponding protocols necessary—now, water scarcity, and rising seawater. Most
for the U.S. mainland. Researchers from the
in preparation for near-future waves of of them will flee developing countries in
School of International and Public Affairs at We must prepare for a future wave of
climate refugees. Researchers at Columbia sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and
Columbia University examined new flows of climate refugees.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Geoengineering
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT
To counteract extreme weather and climate
change, researchers are looking to geoen-
gineering—large-scale technological and
scientific interventions to counteract the
damage we’ve caused to the planet.

Mirrors in space, capturing carbon dioxide,
seeding clouds with particles, and injecting
gasses into the atmosphere are all exam-
ples of geoengineering. We’re at the earliest
stages of research and exploration, but it’s a
controversial solution to our climate change
problem. When Congress approved the $1.4
trillion spending package in December 2019,
it included a small amount of money to fur-
ther this research: $4 million in the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
budget and $15 million in the Department of
Energy coffers.
WHY IT MATTERS
Scientists can run simulations using
available data, but it’s impossible to predict
the second- and third-order implications
Illustration courtesy of Encyclopedia Britannica.
215
Geoengineering cont.
of geoengineering in advance. Even so, the capable of eating carbon dioxide and con- been attempted at scale. The top climate degrees. Swiss scientists, meanwhile, are
fate of the whole planet is at stake. The verting it into a harmless bicarbonate. scientist at NOAA received $4 million from developing ways to eliminate cirrus clouds,
scientific community is divided on geoen- Congress—as well as their permission—to those thin, wispy clouds made from ice crys-
gineering because some of the proposed Converting Carbon Dioxide into develop this technique and another tech- tals that form at high altitude and trap heat
techniques could potentially adversely af- Building Materials nique using sea salt particles in case the in the atmosphere. Other efforts include
fect natural weather patterns. No one coun- U.S. and other nations fail to reduce global painting the roofs of large groups of houses
Carbon dioxide captured from industrial
try can—or should—take a unilateral lead on greenhouse gas emissions. white and laying reflective sheets in deserts.
factories can be repurposed as building ma-
geoengineering. The National Academy of
terials. Startup Blue Planet developed a way
Sciences is studying whether solar geoengi-
to convert carbon dioxide into a limestone
Injecting Clouds with Sea Salt Reflecting Sunlight
neering research should be pursued, and if Particles
coating that can be used to reinforce con- Some scientists are working on enor-
so, under what parameters.
crete. The company’s bicarbonate rocks, also Inspired by maritime observations, this geo- mous, mirrored parasols to be launched
THE IMPACT produced using captured carbon dioxide, engineering technique would try to expand into the stratosphere, which would reflect
were included in the reconstruction of the the coverage of the long clouds left by the sunlight back into space and theoreti-
Proposals for geoengineering projects are
San Francisco International Airport. Mean- passage of ocean freighters on the open cally cool Earth’s atmosphere over time.
starting to gain wider public acceptance,
while, in Iceland, the Hellisheidi geothermal water. An aerosol of sea salt particles and The Keutsch Research Group at Harvard
which could influence regulators to allow
power plant started a project that could turn seawater vapor would be injected into these University is hoping to launch the first ever
experimentation in the years to come.
carbon dioxide into a solid basalt rock. existing clouds, which would then expand major aerosol injection trial, known as the
and shade our oceans. The director of the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation
 TRENDS Experiment (SCoPEx). The scientists will
Stratospheric Aerosol Chemical Sciences Division of NOAA’s Earth
Scattering with Sulfur Dioxide System Research Laboratory received a $4 use a balloon to inject huge amounts of
Storing Captured Carbon with million grant from Congress and permission aerosols, or extremely fine particles, into
Algae and Bacteria Also known as solar radiation manage-
to study these sea salt vapors. Meanwhile the upper atmosphere, reflecting sunlight.
ment, this technique involves injecting tiny
Scientists are building tubular bioreactors, scientists at the University of Washington They plan to use a high-altitude balloon to
particles into the sky that would reflect
filling them with green algae, and letting are working on increasing the whiteness and lift an instrument package approximately
sunlight back into space. The idea comes
them eat away at the carbon captured from brightness of clouds by spraying trillions of 20 kilometers into the atmosphere. Once it
from volcanoes, with scientists pointing to
our environment. Quebec City-based CO2 particles of seawater into the clouds above is in place, a very small amount of material
an eruption 200 years ago that caused an
Solution genetically engineered a strain of the ocean, brightening them. The team’s (100 grams to 2 kilograms) will be released
unusual cold snap, triggering unseasonal
E. coli bacteria to produce special enzymes early computer models predict that if just to create a perturbed air mass roughly 1
summertime frosts. This remains a con-
15% of marine clouds were brightened by kilometer long and 100 meters in diameter.
troversial area of research and has not yet
5% to 7%, it could offset warming by 2 to 3
They will then use the same balloon to mea- Fertilizing the Oceans tions to declare the Garbage Patch its own access to $3,000 trawls, or fine-mesh nets
sure resulting changes in the perturbed air country dubbed "The Trash Isles." A recent that can be used to capture plastic floating
Oceanic iron fertilization involves dumping
mass including changes in aerosol density, report by the British government warned on the water’s surface. Even if scientists
enormous amounts of iron sulfate into wide
atmospheric chemistry, and light scatter- that the amount of plastic in the ocean could succeed in cleaning up the marine garbage
expanses of the ocean. Theoretically, it
ing. Bill Gates and other private donors put triple by 2050. The problem has prompted pile, it will require behavioral change among
would stimulate the growth of phytoplank-
$16 million behind the Harvard projects, but some innovative approaches to help clean consumers and businesses to prevent future
ton, the tiny sea life that absorbs carbon
some scientists warn the experiments are up the trash. In the fall of 2018, the Dutch waste. Otherwise, more plastic will continue
dioxide, releases oxygen, and is gobbled
risky because they threaten to adversely nonprofit Ocean Cleanup launched an am- to pile up in the world’s oceans.
up by other creatures. This is key, because
disrupt natural weather patterns, potentially bitious effort to collect half of that Garbage
every year the ocean absorbs about a quar- WATCHLIST
causing extreme flooding and drought in Patch within five years, using a fleet of 60
ter of the carbon dioxide we emit into the
various parts of the world—mostly in poorer autonomous floating “screens,” or nets that 5 Gyres Institute, Arizona State Univer-
atmosphere, changing the chemistry of the
countries. collect debris as small as a centimeter in sity, Blue Planet, Carbon Engineering,
oceans and harming marine ecosystems. At
diameter, and are later retrieved by boats. Carbon180, Chemical Sciences Division of
the University of the South Pacific in Fiji,
Sand for Glacier Melt researchers are exploring how kelp forests
A floater prevents plastic from flowing over NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory,
the screen, while a skirt stops debris from Chevron, ClimeWorks, Cloud Brightening
Sand is stronger than we once thought. One and other seaweed habitats in the ocean
escaping underneath. Algorithms pinpoint Project, CO2 Solution, Columbia University,
project from Princeton University scientist could suck up carbon.
where to deploy, and real-time telemetry ExxonMobil, George Washington University,
Michael Wolovick involves building massive
monitors the condition, performance, and Global Thermostat, Hellisheidi, Incite.org,
piles of sand or similar materials dumped to Enzymes to Eat Ocean Trash trajectory of each screen. The system also Keutsch Research Group at Harvard Univer-
the seafloor to build walls around glaciers,
The notorious mass of trash floating in the relies on the natural ocean currents for sity, National Energy Technology Laborato-
acting sort of like a scaffolding to prevent
Pacific Ocean is bigger than we originally energy; the rest of the electronics are so- ry, Occidental Petroleum, Ocean Cleanup,
them from collapsing. Far beneath the
thought. It is actually two distinct collec- lar-powered. In October 2019, Ocean Cleanup Princeton University scientist Michael
surface of the ocean is warmer seawater.
tions of garbage, collectively known as the announced that the self-contained clean- Wolovick, Silicon Kingdom Holdings, Silver-
As the deposited sand moves closer to gla-
Pacific Trash Vortex. In 2018, researchers up system is working. Another effort, the linings, European Union, National Oceanic
ciers, it destabilizes their foundation, caus-
found that it is 16 times larger than original Seabin Project, cleans up oil and trash using and Atmospheric Administration, National
ing pieces to break off and melt into the
estimates, at least three times the size of floating receptacles with pumps and filtra- Renewable Energy Laboratory, Seabin Proj-
ocean. Shoring up their foundation could
France, or a total of 617,763 square miles. An tion centers set up in harbors, marinas, and ect, Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation
keep glaciers supported in the icy upper
estimated five trillion pieces of plastic float other busy areas. The 5 Gyres Institute in- Experiment group, Swiss government, U.S.
layers of water, and theoretically prevent
in the ocean, covering an area so large that vites citizen scientists to contribute data on Department of Energy, the United Nations,
them from melting. It’s not a method suited
environmentalists called on the United Na- plastic pollution by offering them yearlong University of Washington, YCombinator.
for all glaciers, but it can help.
217
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Corporate Environmental
STRATEGY NOW
Responsibility REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH

Large companies around the world are Many companies see corporate environ-
highlighting sustainability as part of their mental responsibility as a value-add for all
core values. of their key stakeholders. Other companies
can follow suit by developing long-term
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW strategy, vision, and R&D plans to create
Until recently, sustainability was little more new business opportunities that create
than a buzzword and an afterthought. But value for shareholders while also helping the
we are now starting to see real change. In planet.
his January 2020 annual letter to CEOs,
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote that cli- THE IMPACT
mate change has brought us to “the edge of Corporate environmental responsibility
a fundamental reshaping of finance” and “in is a growing concern among consumers
the near future…a significant reallocation and investors alike, who hope to see both
of capital.” In the future, BlackRock, the economic value and good-faith efforts to
world’s largest asset management company, mitigate the impact of business on climate
with more than $7 trillion under manage- change.
An aerial view of Apple’s new campus as it was being built in 2017. ment, will vote against management and
board directors when companies are not
“making sufficient progress on sustainabil-
ity-related disclosures and the business
practices and plans underlying them.”

 TRENDS Corporates Adopt Net-Zero don-based Silverstream Technologies on have been dubbed “Tesla ships.” Eventually,
Energy the hull of one of its ships, helping it move the hope is that these sorts of ships will also
Sustainability as Corporate faster and more easily through the water. operate autonomously. Hybrid boats are
Corporations have set ambitious goals to
The technology relies on steel boxes welded making waves, too. Powered in part by solar
Identity become net-zero energy consumers, which
to the ship’s hull and air compressors, which energy, they reduce a watercraft’s weight,
Unilever’s Sustainable Living Plan sets means that the energy they use will be equal
together create a layer of microbubbles cut down on noise, boost passenger capaci-
targets for sourcing, supply chain, and pro- to the amount of renewable energy created
between the vessel and the water. The ty and cut emissions.
duction throughout its operations. A decade on their campuses. In 2019, Google was the
result: 5% to 12% fuel savings. New inter-
ago, CEO Paul Polman said that he wanted global leader in corporate renewable energy
national environmental regulations went Corporate Meteorologists
to double Unilever’s business while cutting procurement, signing contracts for 2.7 giga-
into effect in January 2020. The United
its environmental impact in half. Allergan, watts of capacity. Amazon, Microsoft, and Virtually every business will be impacted by
Nations’ International Maritime Organiza-
the maker of Botox, has developed ways to Facebook were also big buyers. Meanwhile, extreme weather events, sea level rise, and
tion now requires all international vessels
conserve water and energy in its operations Adobe has made huge shifts to produce global warming. The financial models and
except yachts to use fuels that contain no
and supply chain. Outdoor outfitter Patago- more renewable energy on-site. As of 2018, predictive systems that guided companies
more than 0.5% sulfur—compared to 2019's
nia sets the pace for every industry: They Apple’s campuses have been powered by in the past will need to be adjusted for
limit of 3.5%. Shipping and cruising vessels,
encourage repairing rather than replacing 100% renewable energy. weather-related impacts. For example, a
including Carnival Cruise, Maersk, Norwe-
their products, use natural rubbers and up- food and beverage company that uses vanil-
gian Cruise Line, Grimaldi Group and Viking
cycled plastic bottles, and are committed to Sustainable Shipping la in their products will rely more intensively
Lines, are adopting more energy-saving
minimizing or eliminating packaging waste. on weather data to better predict possible
It’s no mystery that the shipping industry is technologies, because the required cleaner
Last year, Patagonia took its sustainability shortages of the ingredient. Some com-
a huge contributor to climate change, due fuel may inflate fuel costs by 30% to 60%—
efforts a step further, saying it would only panies, including Mars Chocolate (maker
to its carbon dioxide emissions and endless an estimated $30 billion annually. Mean-
produce its popular custom logo-embroi- of M&Ms and Dove), now employ a team
thirst for fuel. In an effort to limit that thirst, while, the market for hybrid and electric
dered vests and jackets for companies of meteorologists. Their job: analyze the
Shell Oil has devised a novel approach to boats is growing. The world’s first electric
who can prove they align with Patagonia’s impact of weather events on the company’s
fuel efficiency: air bubbles. The oil company barges now chug between ports in Am-
corporate values. supply chain, financial models, production,
installed a new system developed by Lon- sterdam and on the coast of Belgium. The
and distribution.
vessels, made by Dutch company Port Liner,
219
Geoengineering cont.
"The eyes of all Reducing Corporate Reliance on

Plastics
and oils. Meanwhile, corporations are step-
ping up: Origin Materials will make “plastic”
bottles from sawdust and cardboard. Evian
future generations Plastic has long been the bane of the envi-
ronment, piling up in oceans and landfills.
has promised to use recycled plastic in
all its water bottles by 2025. Starbucks
are upon you. And We now know that, when exposed to the
elements, plastic releases methane and
pledged to eliminate plastic straws in 2020.
British supermarket Morrisons will bring
if you choose to fail ethylene, two greenhouse gases that exac-
erbate climate change, according to new
back traditional brown paper bags for loose
fruit and vegetables, and a number of cities
us, I say—we will research by the University of Hawaii. There
are efforts to mitigate plastic’s ills, howev-
have banned plastic bags at grocery stores.
never forgive you." er. Last year, researchers at the University

of Portsmouth accidentally discovered a
WATCHLIST
Adobe, Allergan, Amazon, Apple, BlackRock,
Inventia and Tomorrow Machine created
plastic-eating enzyme that could help break dishes that never needed washing.
Carbios, Chevron, Evian, Facebook, Google,
– Climate activist Greta down larger pieces of plastic and aid in
Infarm, Innventia, Microsoft, MIT Media Lab,
Thunberg at the U.N. Climate recycling efforts. French biotech company
Morrisons, Origin Materials, Patagonia, Port
Carbios will produce a new generation of
Summit in 2019. Liner, Recycling Technologies, Saltwater
plastics for bottles, packaging, and film that
Brewery, Shell Oil, Silverstream Technol-
include enzymes to trigger biodegradation
ogies, Starbucks, Tomorrow Machine,
after use. Recycling Technologies, based in
Unilever, United Nations, University of
the UK, hopes to turn traditionally unrecy-
Hawaii, University of Minnesota, University
clable plastics into “plaxx,” or plastic, wax,
of Portsmouth.

221
19 AgTech & Global
Supply of Food
224 Aeroponic Growing
225 Vertical Farming Grows Up
225 Indoor Plant Factories
225 Big Data for Better Produce
227 Precision Agriculture
Deep Learning for Food
228
Recognition
229 Big Tech Gets into Farming
230 Artificial Trees
230 Intelligent Packaging
231 Insect Agriculture and
Bug Proteins
231 Cellular Agriculture
231 Off-Planet Terraforming
223
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Aeroponics, Vertical Cultivation
STRATEGY NOW
and Indoor Plant Factories REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT  DEEPER DIVE

With extreme weather hampering tradi- Smarter Farms
tional agriculture systems, new techniques
The agriculture industry is abuzz over pro-
are endeavoring to cultivate grains and
jections that by 2050, we must increase agri-
produce that can be grown in spite of
culture production by 70% to meet projected
our changing climate. The availability of
demand. Traditional farming methods won’t
sensors, new kinds of irrigation, better
cut it. That shortfall has spawned a new gen-
lighting, and efficient ways to capture and
eration of AgTech startups—nearly a dozen
process data is helping to modernize the
accelerators have popped up in the sector
agricultural sector—a transformation that
since 2013. Yet small farmers are slow to ex-
will decentralize farming.
periment with and adopt new technologies. If
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW a technology doesn’t work, it can kill an entire
harvest and a year’s income. The tech needs
Decentralized food production is popular
of a current farmer aren’t flashy yet. They
worldwide and could become a market of
want tech to digitize their field notes, and
$700 billion over the next decade, according
to use apps to track people and equipment,
to a report by the Union Bank of Switzerland.
Japan is home to the world’s largest “pinkhouses,” indoor plant factories that tend to emit monitor valves and irrigation systems, store
pink light. WHY IT MATTERS historical records of pest problems, spot
irrigation leaks, and monitor water wells.
Our existing global food system is a signif-
icant driver of climate change. The food
 TRENDS
system is also vulnerable to the effects of
climate change. We’re facing long-term
existential risk in the global food supply, but
Aeroponic Growing
we’re also seeing tremendous new research Aeroponic systems don’t require soil.
and opportunity in AgTech. Instead, nutrient-fed water nurtures plants
that grow in a soilless growing medium.The tend to deliver 10 to 20 times the total yield In Kameoka (also near Kyoto) a company THE IMPACT
root systems are exposed to extra oxygen, of conventional farms with far less waste. called Spread uses machines and robots to
Overpopulation means the world must feed
and the closed-loop irrigation technique Vertical farming projects now scatter the cultivate plants to produce between 20,000
an estimated 9 billion people in 2050. If
requires 95% less water than plants grown globe, settling mostly in urban centers such and 30,000 heads of lettuce per day. It
you're a human who eats food, you should
in traditional soil. Seeds are planted into as Baltimore and Chicago. may take only 40 days for plants to mature
care deeply about the global food supply.
an organic foam-like material, which cradle before they’re shipped to nearby supermar-
With our global weather patterns and cli-
plants as they grow over time. There’s an Indoor Plant Factories kets in Japan. Plants thrive elsewhere in
mates in flux, it's plausible that the world's
added benefit: If plants must be treated for the world, too. In California, Iron Ox built a
Many countries lack the land mass or infra- agricultural centers today won't be capable
disease or pests, there won’t be any chemi- fully autonomous, hydroponic indoor farm
structure to produce high-quality produce, of sustaining commercial farms in the near
cal runoff into nearby streams and lakes. that uses two robots to plant, maintain, and
so they’re bringing traditional agriculture future. Today’s agriculture system alone
harvest produce. Those two bots can do the
indoors and underground, using high-tech won’t work.
Vertical Farming Grows Up robotics, irrigation, and lighting systems to
equivalent of 30 acres of outdoor farming in
just a single indoor, automated acre. WATCHLIST
Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and SoftBank’s Ma- cultivate food. In the U.S., 80 Acres Farms
sayoshi Son have both invested in vertical is building a fully automated indoor farm 80 Acres, AeroFarms, Bowery Farming,
farming, the burgeoning industry in which the size of one-and-a-half football fields Big Data for Better Produce Bright Farms, AGCO, BASF, Bayer AG,
crops are grown in stacked layers inside just outside of Cincinnati, Ohio. Japan Researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Chiba University, Claas, Del Monte, Detroit
of climate-controlled environments. In the leads the world when it comes to indoor Technology now crunch data to come up Dirt, DowDuPont, Fujitsu, GP Solutions,
past, the expense of robots, artificial light, plant factories, with more than 200 now up with “plant recipes” that can improve indoor Grove Labs, Growing Underground, Iron
and other equipment made vertical farms and running. The government subsidized food production even more. Using com- Ox, Iwatani Agrigreen, Japan Plant Factory
difficult to scale. But that’s changing as the many of these operations, and they thrive plex algorithms and sensors attached to Association, Japanese Ministry of Economy,
ecosystem matures and technology im- thanks to Japanese consumer demand plants growing in hydroponic systems, the John Deere, Komatsu, MIT, Mitsubishi, Mon-
proves. Today, thanks to brighter, cheaper for fresh, local, pesticide-free food. Near researchers track everything from carbon santo, National Federation of Agricultural
LED light bulbs, cloud-based A.I. systems, Kyoto, the Kansai Science City microfarm dioxide and temperature to water and plant Cooperative Association (Japan), Plenty,
and more available agricultural sensors, uses artificial intelligence and collaborative tissue health, analyzing the best conditions Sungenta, Tomiyama Corporation.
vertical farms can now cultivate lettuce, robots to raise seedlings, replant, water, and systems for growing the most nutri-
spinach, basil, garlic, and snow peas. They adjust lighting, and harvest fresh produce. tious, tastiest foods possible.
225
Agriculture cont.
SCENARIO • FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE RESEARCH TEAM
Growhouse-to-Table is the New

Farm-to-Table
“This is called farming! NEAR-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
You kids are gonna Restaurants have smaller walk-in refrigerators because they now grow
their own produce and harvest it just before preparing meals. Compact,
grow all kinds of self-sustaining indoor vegetable gardens fit within the existing space
of a commercial kitchen. Special lights help reduce the growing time
plants! Vegetable necessary for plants to reach maturity. Elite chefs not only grow their
own foods, they develop and culture special varieties to complement
plants, pizza plants.” their recipes.
- The Captain in Wall-E

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Precision Agriculture
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight around since farmers started using GPS cameras, data mining to understand crop
alongside their tractors, but advancements blossoming and ripeness, and new analytics
Using sensors, algorithms, and optimization
in robotics, data collection, and insights dashboards to help farmers make better
analytics, farmers can now quantify the prog-
have meant new opportunities. Farmers can decisions.
ress of every single crop—down to a single
now vary irrigation and fertilizer automati-
cherry tomato hanging on a particular vine. The Impact
cally using new technologies.
Why It Matters As 5G becomes more widely available this
What’s Next year, precision agriculture applications will
Precision agriculture can help increase crop
Modern agriculture relies on efficient improve and usage will expand.
yields and profitability while reducing the
management and accurate predictions.
costs associated with watering, fertilizing Watchlist
Researchers at the University of Illinois
New tools will help farmers predict crop and treating crops for pests.
combined seasonal climate data and satel- Amazon, Arable, Blue River Technology,
yields based on environmental factors.
Examples lite images with the USDA’s World Agricul- Bosch, CropMetrics, Descartes Labs, Du-
tural Supply and Demand Estimates to build Pont, Farmers Business Network, Farmers
The University of Georgia became one
new kinds of prediction models—they hope Edge, Google, Honeywell, Planet Labs, SAP,
of the first research institutions to apply
this will help farmers predict crop yields Semios, Sentera, Smart Ag, Syngenta,
big data to farming in the mid-1990s. This
in advance given environmental factors. TerrAvion, University of Georgia College of
new farm management approach involves
South Dakota State University invested $46 Agricultural and Environmental Sciences,
a variety of technologies, including GPS,
million in a new facility to study the future University of Georgia’s Center for Agribusi-
sensors, collaborative robotics, autono-
of precision agriculture and is developing ness and Economic Development, Univer-
mous vehicles, autonomous soil sampling,
new precision ag courses set to start in sity of Illinois, United States Department of
telematics, and lots of machine learning.
2021. New technologies on the near-future Agriculture.
Vestiges of precision agriculture have been
horizon include drones equipped with smart
227
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Deep Learning for Food Recognition
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight up Abundant Robotics and Israeli-based could be used to help consumers more easily
FFRobotics are both developing automated trace produce as it moves around the world.
Deep learning is being used to identify food
picking systems that scan and “read” produce Machine learning also lets chefs and at-home
for a number of reasons: to help computers
to determine when it’s ripe. SomaDetect lets cooks determine which foods taste best
have more robust conversations with us
dairy farms monitor milk quality using optical together, select complementary ingredients,
about the content and origin of what we’re
sensors and machine learning. Blue River and offer food suggestions for various tastes.
eating, to calculate the number of calories in
Technology uses deep learning to automati-
a dish, and to spot spoiled or tainted food. The Impact
cally detect and spray weeds.
Why It Matters Deep learning can be used to find and sort
Disease detection app Plantix helps farm- What’s Next problem products on food assembly lines,
Artificial intelligence and deep learning
ers see what’s wrong with their crops. Deep learning will soon help determine and it can help growers better identify crop
now help food manufacturers and farmers
exactly how much to feed livestock and will disease. Deep learning for food recognition
determine nutritional deficiency and detect
adjust quantities and mixtures of nutrients to could soon present a number of opportu-
disease. It helps consumers learn more about
optimize their health. Computer models will nities for agricultural companies, farmers,
the provenance of our food.
calculate the nutritional value of food before food manufacturers, restaurants, chefs, and
Examples you’ve taken your first bite. Researchers at health-minded consumers.
the University of Massachusetts now use
Plantix, a cloud-based A.I. system, lets
deep learning for computer-assisted dietary Watchlist
farmers identify pests and disease in their
assessments, while scientists at Microsoft Abundant Robotics, Alphabet, Apple, Blue
crops just by uploading photos of suspicious
already incorporated their deep learning River Technology, Carnegie Mellon, FFRobot-
plants. The system will use image recognition
prototypes for recognizing popular Asian ics, IBM, John Deere Labs, Microsoft, MIT
to cross-reference with a database of various
and Western foods into the Bing local search Media Lab, Penn State University, Plantix,
species, and within a couple minutes offer
engine. At the MIT Media Lab, students are PlantJammer, PlantVillage, Prospera, Soma-
assessments of potential problems. Perhaps
at work on an organic barcode that’s invisible Detect, University of Maryland, University of
the plant is not getting enough water or
to us, but could be read by machines—it Massachusetts, University of Tokyo.
needs a micronutrient. California start-

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Big Tech Gets into Farming
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight helped launch Grand Farm, a partnership be- Watchlist

tween farmers, businesses, government, and
Technology companies are getting into the Amazon, EarthSense, John Deere, Micro-
entrepreneurs in North Dakota. Over three
agriculture business. soft, Monsanto, Pollen Systems, Solinftec,
years, Grand Farm will help upskill work-
TeleSense, Trace Genomics, Understory,
Why It Matters ers to drive agricultural and new business
Walmart.
innovation. Walmart—which we think of as
Farming is a difficult, often unpredictable
a technology company as well as a retail-
business. But it’s one that could be drastically
er—is opening its own meatpacking plants
improved through data collection and predic-
and dairy processing facilities in an effort to
tive analytics.
drive down costs. Meanwhile Amazon’s Jeff
Bezos has invested in vertical farming. (See:
Microsoft’s new FarmBeats program Examples
Aeroponics, Vertical Farming, and Indoor
applies the IoT to agriculture. In November, Microsoft launched FarmBeats Plant Factories.)
on Azure marketplace, which is a sort of
internet of things for farms. The effort is a What’s Next
multi-year plan to modernize agriculture with
Farm analytics is an active area of R&D and
data analytics, and it is being tested on two
investment. There are a number of startups
U.S. farms in which Microsoft has invested.
actively building products and services for
The system uses unlicensed long-range TV
agriculture, which points to consolidation
white space to to connect and capture data
over the next few years.
from solar-powered sensors, while drones
gather aerial footage of crops. The data are The Impact
mined and refined using machine learning
The agriculture market is worth an estimated
algorithms, which then send analysis back to
$5 trillion and has serious implications for
farmers with recommendations for how to
the survival of growing human populations.
tweak their resource use. The company also
229
Additional AgTech & Global Supply of Food Trends
 TRENDS carbon dioxide in molten carbonates at 750

degrees Celsius, then introduce atmo-
Artificial Trees spheric air, an electrical current of nickel,
and steel electrodes. The carbon dioxide
CO2 is the undisputed culprit when it comes
dissolves and carbon nanofibers form on the
to climate change. But what if we could
steel electrode.
just suck it out of the air? Trees do that
naturally, but after years of deforestation,
Intelligent Packaging
we simply do not have enough of them to
make a sizable impact. In January 2020, Advancements in agriculture both depend
Ireland-based Silicon Kingdom Holdings on and will generate new investment in
and scientists at Arizona State University smart packaging. The nascent market
started manufacturing artificial trees that for sustainable smart packaging is on the
can absorb carbon dioxide. About the size rise, ranging from moisture-control and
of a poplar tree, the “leaves” are plastic-like temperature sensors incorporated into QR
discs that absorb CO2 in the air and wind. codes, to antimicrobial and edible pack-
When filled, the leaves drop down into the aging—even packaging that “eats” itself
“trunk,” a barrel at the base and into pipes after it is no longer needed. Meanwhile,
that collect the liquid CO2 for resale to researchers at the University of Minnesota
beverage companies. Columbia University are developing new kinds of polymers that
has a similar project in the works. Another will self-destruct or “unzip” when exposed
approach is to convert atmospheric CO2 to light, heat, or acid. Stockholm-based
A hydroponic farm growing many rows of butter lettuce, basil, mint, and other herbs.
into carbon nanofibers that can be used for Tomorrow Machine and Innventia developed
consumer and industrial products, including a self-cleaning plate and cup made from a
wind turbine blades or airplanes. Chemists superhydrophobic coating that rejects dirt.
at George Washington University are ex- The upshot: It never needs washing. Salt-
perimenting with what they dub “diamonds water Brewery in South Florida designed
from the sky,” so-named because diamonds plastic rings for its six-packs of beer to be
are made from carbon. The scientists bathe biodegradable and edible. So, rather than

turtles getting caught in the plastic rings, fatty acids and fiber, and they have been an fish that never swam in water, and cow’s passed a law that bans vegetarian compa-
the material becomes food for them. Ber- important part of the diet of cultures around milk brewed from yeast. Perfect Day will nies from calling their products “bacon” and
lin-based Infarm created a renewable sheet the world. Previously, cultivating insects focus on yogurt, cheese, and ice cream— “sausage.” Still, in the future, you might buy
of plastic that folds to create a self-con- had been limited to a small, experimental sans the cows, and instead grown inside a meat at a local microbrewery, which instead
tained package. It uses seaweed-based group of startups. The U.S. Department of lab. Memphis Meats, Beyond Meat and Aleph of beer, “brews” meat. Or, for that matter,
agar-agar gel to grow microgreens and Agriculture has awarded $1.45 million in Farms are working on lab-grown chicken you might print your hamburger at home.
herbs that don’t need water. Tomorrow research grants for bug proteins in the past and beef using pea protein and other plant
Machine has also developed packaging few years. The North American Coalition for materials. Eclipse Foods is a plant-based Off-Planet Terraforming
made from caramelized sugar and coated Insect Agriculture (NACIA) says the market dairy company that makes an ice cream
Terraforming—literally, “earth shaping”—is
wax. Designed for rice, oil and smoothies, could top $1 billion by 2023. base. New Wave Foods makes algae-based
a concept from science fiction. People
you crack the package like an egg and melt shrimp, while Finless Foods makes fish
re-form another planet to make it resemble
it in water. This kind of active and intelligent Cellular Agriculture flesh. The clean meat movement is heading
Earth, in order to support human life. But as
packaging used for meat has been shown to towards acellular agriculture, which doesn’t
Cellular agriculture refers to the production humans begin serious off-planet exploration
extend shelf life and cut costs. require starter cells extracted from muscle
of agricultural products from cell cul- (see: Space and Off-Planet Trends), we will
biopsies. Instead, it generates meat from
tures, and it’s key to producing lab-grown need to develop new agricultural techniques
Insect Agriculture and Bug meat. In 2013, the University of Maastricht
microbes. This will allow researchers to
suitable for space. One key to terraforming
Proteins someday soon cultivate milk, chicken, and
introduced the world to the first lab-grown might be in our current microbes, which are
eggs. It will take years before producers
While some cultures eat a variety of bugs as hamburger patty, and it cost $330,000 to capable of surviving harsh environments
can scale production to meet demand, and
part of their daily diets, bug-based cuisine create. Since then, a number of startups like the Atacama Desert. Of course, we
there is no guarantee everyone will adopt
isn’t a worldwide phenomenon. That could have been working on various techniques to might even invent entirely new forms of life
the meatless meal. In 2018, the U.S. beef
change with the introduction of bug-based culture—rather than harvest—meat that has using synthetic biology. To advance terra-
industry took aim at the nascent industry,
proteins. There’s an environmental argu- the same chemical structure of what would forming from theory to reality, we’ll need a
filing a petition to bar non-animal products
ment to eating crickets rather than chick- have come from an animal. Fast food chains host of new robots that can be trained to
from the definition of meat and creating
ens: Raising and consuming insects pro- like Chipotle now offer Impossible meat, mine for resources and build an ecosystem
a consumer campaign against lab-grown
duces significantly less greenhouse gasses, a beef substitute made from genetical- that can sustain human life. In addition, we
meat. Yet retail sales of plant-based meat
doesn’t require extensive land and water, ly-modified yeast. Many U.S. grocery stores will need hybrid-skilled researchers with
grew to $1 billion in 2019, up 56% from 2015—
and inflicts less long-term damage to the now sell ground Impossible meat, too. Clara backgrounds in biology, botany, agriculture,
while retail meat sales remained flat, ac-
planet. Bugs are good sources of protein, Foods serves up creamy lab-grown eggs, robotics, and physics.
cording to Nielsen. French lawmakers also
231
20 Synthetic Biology
& Genomic Editing
234 Synthetic Biology 239 Organoid Development
235 Single-Nucleotide 239 Super Pigs
Polymorphism (SNP)
Profiling
239 Unregulated Pet Cloning
Super-Fast Molecule
235 A Shortage of Genome
239
Storage
Discovery
235 Designer Cells
240 DNA Storage
236 Molecular Robotics

240 Microbe-Engineering
as a Service
236 Building Full Chromosomes
240 Microbiome Extinction
236 Creating Synthetic Wombs
240 Genetic Screening
236 Synthetic Age Reversal
241 Biological DVRs
237 Genomic Editing
241 Superbugs, Viruses
238 Gene Vandalism and Phages
239 Prime Editing 241 Building a Comprehensive
Human Cell Atlas
233
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Synthetic Biology
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT  DEEPER DIVE

Synthetic biology is a relatively new inter- Synthetic Biology vs
disciplinary field of science that com- Genetic Engineering
bines engineering, design, and computer
While synthetic biology might sound similar
science with biology. Researchers design
to genetic engineering, they are different
or redesign organisms on a molecular level
fields. In general, modifying an organism
for new purposes, to make them adaptable
by editing a single gene doesn’t count as
to different environments, or to give them
synthetic biology. Engineering rice so that
different abilities.
it can withstand extreme heat results in an
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW improved strain of rice, which could also be
accomplished through breeding over a long
Synthetic biologists are working to develop
period of time. But if you wanted rice that
new kinds of proteins that might someday
could not only stand up to extreme heat but
replace the animal meats we consume.
could also serve as a convincing substitute
Industrial biologists are investigating how
for beef, you’d need to engineer that rice
to build new enzymes that could help break
with a suite of new genes that would result
down plastics.
Scientists are experimenting to reprogram E. coli. in an entirely new genetic code. Synthetic
WHY IT MATTERS biology involves creating an organism that
doesn’t already exist in nature.
Synthetic biology will someday help repair
defective genes, rid the planet of toxins, de- Weird Science
stroy cancer cells, and help mass-produce
There have been some exciting develop-
proteins for our consumption. It could be a
ments in this field in the past decade. Swiss
key to a healthier planet. Since 2018, more
researchers figured out in 2012 that it’s
than 100 synthetic biology startups have
possible to program mammalian cells to do
collectively raised $3.8 billion.
basic math. Researchers at the University
of California at San Francisco engineered THE IMPACT  TRENDS ry tested whether new molecules could be
E. coli that can be programmed to find and generated for practical use. By combining
Synthetic biology could be a far more realis-
move along designated paths.
tic way to mitigate the problems of climate Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism artificial intelligence and synthetic biology,
(SNP) Profiling the team delivered six out of the 10 request-
change than seeking off-planet solutions
Synthetic Medicines, Drinks and Fuel ed designer molecules in just 90 days.
(like colonizing Mars). Researchers are developing a new tech-
Imagine a future in which you no longer
nique that might someday enable us to
take medication—instead, your cells are WATCHLIST FOR SECTION Designer Cells
upgrade our children before they’re born.
simply reprogrammed to fight off what-
Aleph Farms, Arcadia Biosciences, Arzeda, Think of a SNP as a single genetic letter Researchers had previously developed
ever ails you. Or biting into a thick, juicy
Atomwise, Autolus, Azitra, Baker Lab at the (A,T,C,G). Tinkering with the order of those artificial cells that come very close to the
Tomahawk steak, grilled to perfection—and
University of Washington, Beam Therapeu- letters could allow us to optimize our ge- real thing, but last year, scientists at the
vegan-friendly, because it is made from
tics, Bolt Threads, Calysta, Cargill, CB Ther- netic code for the best possible outcomes. University of California-San Diego discov-
plant-based proteins. Exxonmobil has even
apeutics, Checkerspot, Codagenix, Codexis, This doesn’t mean creating babies with a ered a technique that creates cells capable
partnered with Synthetic Genomics to
Delft Advanced Biorenewables, Distributed certain hair or eye color, but rather lowering of sending protein signals to other cells
research how to make fuel from algae.
Bio, DNS Script, EdiGENE, Fauna Bio, Gilead the odds of future heart disease or diabe- and triggering behavior—mimicking what
Sciences, Ginkgo Bioworks, Global Bioen- tes. The procedure requires IVF for now: biological cells do on their own. Artificial
A, C, T, G, X, Y, Z
ergies, Google Calico, Google Deep Mind, embryos can be SNP-profiled, and the best cells will soon have practical applications in
Our DNA is made up of base pairs, which Impossible Foods, Inscripa, Lygos, Memphis possible combination would be used for the precision medicine, which is the customi-
you’ve no doubt seen in a double-helix illus- Meats, Microsoft Research, Moderna, Motif, pregnancy. Future generations would have zation of healthcare. What happens as de-
tration. Each base includes an A-T or C-G, Oxford Biomedica, Poseida Therapeutics, those traits passed forward. signer cells and synthetic biology evolves?
and the combination of pairs is what makes Precision BioSciences, Princeton Universi- Could we predict all of the implications?
up our phenotype—our visible, personal ty, Riffyn, Scout Bio, Sherlock Biosciences, Super-Fast Molecule Discovery Probably not, because as cells randomly
traits and characteristics. But what if it Shire Pharmaceuticals, SNIPR BIOME, mutate, new generations could function in
was possible to include new bases? In 2014, Synthetic biology is being used to discover
Sphere Fluidics, Stanford University, Strand ways we’ve not yet imagined. Don’t get too
scientists successfully added new bases and produce molecules on demand. The De-
Therapeutics, Strateos, Symlogic, Syn- excited: We’re not talking about engineer-
and discovered additional possibilities that fense Advanced Research Project Agency
thace, Twist Bioscience, Vedanta Biosci- ing synthetic humans (yet). Programming
worked, at least in E. coli. (DARPA) and the MIT-Broad Institute Found-
ences, Verve Therapeutics, Vestaron, Wild
Earth, Zymergen. 235
Synthetic Biology cont.
individual cells to perform useful tasks will new opportunities to advance medicine and that could help the thousands of premature
still take some time. But the possibilities agriculture. babies born before 25 weeks each year.
are many/thought-provoking/exciting. The
future of synthetic might, by design, include Building Full Chromosomes Synthetic Age Reversal
a kill switch to enable self-destruction after
The Human Genome Project-read (HGP- Last year, synthetic biologist George Church
a task has been completed or if we change
read)—an initiative to sequence the human and a team at Harvard’s Wyss Institute com-
our minds later on.
genome and to improve the technology and bined three different gene therapies related
costs associated with sequencing DNA— to cellular decay into a single compound to
Molecular Robotics wrapped up in 2004. But now there’s a new see if it might reverse obesity and diabetes
Hao Yan, a researcher at Arizona State Uni- A team of scientists at Arizona State initiative: the Human Genome Project-write while also improving kidney and heart func-
versity, designed a knotted DNA structure. University and Harvard University created (HGP-write). This is a synthetic biology tion. Remarkably, the technique seemed to
single-stranded DNA—which is capable initiative, and it’s a massive-scale collabora- work—in mice.
of self-folding into origami-like shapes. It tion to synthesize new species of microbes,
turns out that RNA can be used, too—and plants and animals.
both can be produced inside of living cells.
“But everyone In 2018, scientists at the California Institute

of Technology built a DNA-based version of
Creating Synthetic Wombs
In an experiment at Northwestern Universi-
belongs to tic-tac-toe with self-assembling DNA ori-
gami tiles. Molecular robotics will someday
ty’s Feinberg School of Medicine, research-
ers successfully printed and implanted
everyone else.” be used on all life forms to provide targeted
therapies as well as genetic augmentation.
synthetic ovaries in mice that resulted in a
successful pregnancy. In 2017, researchers
Scientists at the Wyss Institute for Bio-
at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
- World Controller Mustapha logically Inspired Engineering at Harvard
created an artificial womb called a “biobag”
University discovered that both robots and
Monda in Brave New World and used it to successfully keep premature
our DNA share the ability to be programmed
lambs alive and developing normally for 28
in order to perform tasks. Also, just like our
days. We are still years away from synthesiz-
next-gen robots, molecules can self-assem-
ing and growing a full-sized organic womb—
ble, and can react to their environments.
but the biobag represents an intervention
In the future, molecular robotics will offer

SIXTH YEAR ON THE LIST
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Genomic Editing
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT More recently, new technologies have made

CRISPR gene editing more affordable. The
Genome editing is a quickly-developing,
implications are tremendous. Mosquitoes
game-changing field promising to influence
carrying malaria could be edited so that they
the future of life on our planet.
no longer carry the disease through future
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW generations, and so that millions of humans
in high-risk regions are no longer exposed to
Mapping the human genome has been a long
the disease. There are therapeutic possibil-
and difficult process. Recently, sequencing
ities in human medicine as well. Editing our
technology has become more accessible and
genetic code could mean eradicating certain
affordable to research labs, which can enable
genetic diseases—like cystic fibrosis—so
them to work towards personalized medical
they can’t be passed along to our babies, and
treatments for vexing diseases like cancer.
liver cells could be edited to lower the bad
WHY IT MATTERS cholesterol levels in families carrying inher-
ited mutations. World-renowned geneticist
Advancements in genome editing will have a
George Church and his team used CRISPR to
profound effect on all living things, poten-
modify pig organs, making them safe to be
tially helping us to live longer, healthier lives.
Many animals have been cloned since Dolly the Sheep. used in human liver, kidney, heart and lung
transplants.
 DEEPER DIVE
Our CRISPR Decade CRISPR enters key clinical trials
Ten years ago, researchers unveiled a gene This year, CRISPR will face a few key trials
editing technique called CRISPR-Cas9, that will test its ability to treat genetic dis-
which allows scientists to edit precise eases and mitigate the growth of cancerous
positions on DNA using a bacterial enzyme. cells. In one trial, CRISPR will be used to
237
Genomic Editing cont.
disable genes in T-cells to help a cancer dards governing humanity’s position on this the United States took place at the Oregon
patient’s immune system effectively fight sort of human enhancement. In December Health and Science University. Research-
malignant cells from growing. It will also be 2019, Chinese state media revealed that Dr. ers there successfully corrected a genetic
used as a method of improving vision in peo- He’s work had resulted in additional births mutation causing a deadly heart condition.
ple with an inherited condition that causes beyond the twins. Authorities arrested him (The critical difference: These experiments
progressive blindness, and as a treatment and sentenced him to three years in prison did not result in pregnancy or live birth.)
for sickle cell disorder. for “illegal medical practices.”
Meanwhile, researchers at Stanford Univer-
sity have discovered that some people could
China’s Genetically-Edited Babies Designer Humans
be immune to part of the CRISPR process.
In 2015, Chinese researchers edited the The revelations that a Chinese doctor had One of the primary tools used, Cas9, is
genes of a human embryo. It was done in a genetically edited human embryos that typically created using the same bacteria
petri dish, but scientists quickly sounded resulted in live births created a global panic. that causes strep throat. Some people’s
CRISPR-Cas9 is a technique that allows the alarm, because it wasn’t difficult to The scientific community lambasted Dr. He, immune systems can naturally fend off the
scientists to edit precise positions on see how CRISPR could be used to modify while governments around the world were infection, and this research calls into ques-
DNA using a bacterial enzyme. embryos during the in vitro fertilization quick to publicly condemn the use of CRIS- tion whether the CRISPR technique could
process. Since then, plenty of experimen- PR for designer babies of any kind. Many be effective across all—or just part—of the
tation on human embryos has ensued in nations, including the U.S., have regulations human population.
China, and late in 2018, we learned about a banning gene modification for that purpose.
team of researchers led by Dr. He Jiankui This will be a very difficult area to traverse
 TRENDS
at the Southern University of Science and heading into the future, especially with no
Technology in Shenzhen who not only used global standards for modification. Genetic
Gene Vandalism
CRISPR in conjunction with IVF, but purport- modification that aims to eradicate disease,
edly eliminated the CCR5 gene in a pair of however, could be a boon for humanity: Sometimes the gene editing process results
twin girls. That modification, the scientists Harvard University’s Stem Cell Institute in breaking the double strands of a DNA’s
hoped, would make the twins resistant to started using CRISPR to modify sperm cells helix. That results in what synthetic biologist
HIV, smallpox and cholera throughout their so that they could not pass on the genes George Church calls “gene vandalism.” As
lives. If true, this would be the first instance responsible for Alzheimer’s disease. Back cells try to repair the break, it often results
of genetically modified humans—and we ha- in 2017, the first known attempt to create in unintended modifications and mutations
ven’t yet developed global norms and stan- a genetically-modified human embryo in that cannot be easily controlled, and worse,

could be dangerous. Gene vandalism is on experimentation progresses scientists will underway in China to develop new breads puting power and requirements for acquir-
the rise as more researchers experiment need to develop ethical standards. There of disease-resistant, climate-acclimating ing, distributing, analyzing, encrypting, and
with CRISPR. are regulations in place, but this is another super pigs intended for consumption. All of safeguarding our genomics data. As tech-
field that is developing faster than existing this research could have a spillover effect in nology becomes increasingly intertwined
Prime Editing legal frameworks. The Brainstorm Project at other areas of agriculture and medicine, and with biology, we’re realizing that we didn’t
the National Institutes of Health is bringing it could help speed along new regulations. plan ahead for adequate storage capacity,
A new CRISPR, which scientists call “prime
together scientists and ethicists to develop and that we didn’t create sufficient technol-
editing,” could make the editing process
much more precise and result in more accu-
a set of recommendations. Unregulated Pet Cloning ogy workflows for properly storing all that
data. Australia’s Garvan Institute of Medical
rate modifications. As impressive as CRISPR In 2019, China’s first cloned cat was “born.”
is, it can sometimes change the wrong Super Pigs Sinogene, a Beijing-based commercial pet
Research is looking into different processes
and workflow to reduce the genomic data
genes or accidentally break apart strands In 2019, a massive outbreak of swine fever cloning company, sequenced, cloned, and
footprint going forward.
of a DNA’s double helix. A refinement to the devastated China’s stock—nearly a quarter of delivered a cat named Garlic for a 22-year-
CRISPR technique affords more precision the global pig population died. The disease old businessman. Pet cloning is an unregulat-
and versatility. was first reported in August 2018, but it took ed business, and while it wasn’t the first pet
the Chinese government a very long time to be cloned in the world, it was the first for
Organoid Development to take action. Paradoxically, the disease China. The United States and South Korea
spread because the Chinese government are other existing markets for pet cloning.
In 2008, researchers for the first time cre-
took some very positive steps to curb pollu-
ated cerebral organioids—tiny blobs grown
from human stem cells that could grow into
tion. After new regulations went into effect, A Shortage of Genome Storage
industrial pig farmers couldn’t upgrade
brain-like tissues. They helped scientists One of the fastest-growing datasets in the
their facilities fast enough, which led to
understand some of our brain functions, and world is made up of our human genetic data.
farm closures and a re-routing of the pork
have since been used to research autism By 2025, we may be out of data storage
supply. As pigs got sick, they were shipped
spectrum disorders and diseases like the space for human genomes, according to
all around the country, which helped the
Zika virus. Advancements in artificial intel- estimates by the University of Illinois at
disease spread. China consumes a tremen-
ligence will help catalyze research, eventu- Urbana-Champaign. As precision medicine,
dous amount of pork, and it will take years to
ally leading to more complex and realistic CRISPR, and gene therapy technologies
rebuild the swine population. Enter genome
organoids that resemble “mini-brains.” continue to advance and improve, our stor-
editing: There are now dozens of gene
Organoids aren’t conscious—yet—and as age needs will explode, along with the com-
editing experiments and research projects
239
Additional Biotech Trends
 TRENDS human ancestors. Twist Bioscience, a DNA Microbiome Extinction composite organisms, made up of layers
storage startup, figured out how to make and layers of cells. Researchers now think
We may all be guilty of causing a mass
DNA Storage hyperdense, stable, affordable DNA storage:
genocide, which is happening right now
that our gut microbiome is directly linked
Their robots deposit microscopic drops of to everything: our metabolism, immune
In 2018, scientists from Microsoft Research in our guts and in the environment. The
nucleotides on silicon chips and can create system, central nervous system, and even
and the University of Washington achieved widespread use of antibiotics, along with
a million short strands of DNA at a time. The the cognitive functions inside our brains. It’s
a new milestone: They figured out how to diets rich in processed foods, have led to
end result will be a tiny, pill-sized container an inherited problem: Most of our microbi-
create random access on DNA at scale. a staggering decline of microorganisms
into which we will someday fit hundreds of omes are passed from our mothers as we
They encoded 200 megabytes of data—35 in wealthy nations. During the past 12,000
terabytes of capacity. pass through the birth canal. A number of
video, image, audio and text files ranging years of human evolution, we’ve shifted
researchers are now looking at the future
from 29KB to 44MB—to synthetic DNA. To nature’s balance—our diets are now rela-
date, scientists have stored a $50 Amazon
Microbe-Engineering tively narrow, compared to our far-distant
of our microbiomes. Cambridge, Massachu-
As a Service setts-based Vedanta is making gut bacteria
gift card, an operating system and a film ancestors. Recently, scientists studied
that can be turned into drugs and counts
(L'arrivée d'un train en gare de La Ciotat, Synthetic biology is an emerging field that modern hunter-gatherer tribes in Tanzania,
the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as one
a foundational black-and-white French builds new life: replacement organs and Peru, and Venezuela, whose microbiota
of its investors. San Francisco-based start-
short film made in 1896) on human DNA. soft tissue, as well as entirely new kinds have 50% more bacterial species than
up uBiome has launched several at-home
Researchers at Columbia University and the of organisms never before seen on Earth. those in the West. Unlike those tribes,
microbiome tests (though for the time being
New York Genome Center think that DNA Zymergen, based in the San Francisco Bay we no longer hunt and eat wild flora and
you need a subscription to take one). The
could potentially be used in advanced com- Area, is developing original microbes for fauna. Those from wealthier countries
American Gut Project, the American Gastro-
puter systems, and they’re not alone. The making specialty polymers, which have ap- now eat very little dietary fiber, a limited
enterological Association and OpenBiome
U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects plications in military equipment and electric variety of fruits and vegetables, and only
will track 4,000 patients over 10 years to
Agency (DARPA) announced its own DNA vehicles. In 2018, it raised $400 million in its four species of livestock: sheep, poultry,
learn about fecal microbiomes. Investors
storage project in 2017. It seems like a weird third round of funding from SoftBank Vision cattle and pigs. Worse, widespread use of
have poured more than a billion dollars into
branch of biological science, but there are Fund, Goldman Sachs, Korea-based Hanwha antibiotics in farm animals—not to pre-
microbiome startups since 2016.
practical reasons for human computing: Asset Management and others. Synthetic vent disease, necessarily, but to increase
DNA could solve our future data storage biologists at Ginkgo Bioworks build cus- weight gain and therefore the volume of
problems. It’s durable, too: Evolutionary tom-crafted microbes for their customers, meat available—means that we’re ingesting
Genetic Screening
scientists routinely study DNA that is thou- which have included designer bacteria compounds that are helping to destroy our New genetic screening techniques to test
sands of years old to learn more about our enabling crops to fertilize themselves. own microbiomes. We humans are complex, embryos before implantation are making

their way into fertility centers. Menlo Park, exactly, we age. If we can quantify aging at a countries where the overuse of antibiotics cellular level. Although a cell atlas has long
California-based MyOme and New Jer- cellular level, maybe we can reverse it. has led to medicine-resistant superbugs. been theorized, new biological tools and
sey-based Genomic Prediction now use the As for the coronavirus, the outbreak will be more powerful computers have turned this
genetic sequences of parents along with Superbugs, Viruses and Phages top of mind throughout 2020, as govern- one-time vision into a reality. The team work-
cells retrieved during a biopsy to generate ments explore how they can more easily ing on the atlas believes that they can draw
In January 2020, a new coronavirus named
an embryo’s entire genome. Next, they use collaborate to contend with global health comprehensive reference maps for all human
2019-nCoV (also known as novel coronavi-
algorithms to calculate the probabilities of emergencies. Months before the outbreak, cells in the body. A human cell atlas would
rus or Wuhan coronavirus) spread rapidly
certain ailments. Couples can then select researchers at Johns Hopkins ran a simula- give the medical community a new way of
throughout China. As of February 6, there
the embryos they like, based on those tion of a hypothetical, treatment-resistant understanding how our bodies work and how
were 28,256 cases in China alone, and 3,800
results. While both companies are disease coronavirus outbreak spawned at a pig farm to diagnose, monitor, and treat disease.
were critical according to World Health
focused for now, it is also possible to calcu- in Brazil. Unlike the 2019-nCoV, this one
Organization data. The death toll from the
late scores and optimize for other genetic was extremely lethal, and in the simulation
virus had surpassed 560. Thousands of peo-
traits like height and intelligence. 65 million people died in just 18 months.
ple were quarantined on cruise ships out-
Despite these massive hypothetical risks,
side of Yokohama, Japan after 10 passen-
Biological DVRs gers were diagnosed. The U.S. and Australia
most governments underspend on emerg-
ing disease research.
The source code for humanity is stored in temporarily barred foreigners who’d recently
our DNA. As we age the sequence might visited China from entering their countries,
stay constant, but there are chemical companies like Apple and Starbucks closed Building a Comprehensive
changes that occur to our DNA. Observing their stores, and airlines including Delta and Human Cell Atlas
those changes could lead to new techniques British Airways cancelled flights. As of this Researchers are working on the first-ever
to halt or even reverse age-related disease. report’s printing, we didn’t yet know what comprehensive map of all of the 37.2 trillion
Columbia University researchers discov- caused the virus or how it was spreading. It cells that make up the human body. A large
ered that it might be possible to record and joined a host of superbugs already ram- team of scientists—including 130 software
store information about cells as they age. pant elsewhere in low-income countries. engineers, mathematicians, computational
The technique—a sort of biological DVR—is Researchers will be testing phages—spe- scientists, biologists, clinicians, and physi-
achieved using the CRISPR-Cas system over cially programmed viruses that can target a cists—hailing from Israel, the Netherlands,
a period of days. In the future, this could bacteria that causes illness without harming Japan, the UK, the U.S., and Sweden are
allow researchers to very closely study how, us—in the coming year. That’s good news for hard at work mapping the human body on a
241
FUTURE SCENARIOS • AMY WEBB
Opportunities and Risks
VERY NEAR TERM 10–15 YEARS AWAY 20 YEARS AWAY

Pest Control vs Ecological Weaponization Longer Lifespans vs Overpopulation Healthier Babies vs Modification
for the Wealthy
Genome editing can be used in mosquitos, Some argue that genome editing could be
which carry malaria—a disease that kills mil- used to give humans longer lifespans and to Genomic editing will help eradicate heritable
lions of people worldwide each year. The tech- lower mortality rates—which would result in a diseases such as cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs
nique alters a section of the mosquito’s DNA, devastating strain on our global supply of food disease, Huntington disease, and Leigh syn-
making it impossible for future generations and greater environmental degradation. On drome from the population. The same tech-
of the insect to spread malaria to humans. the other hand, genome editing is also being niques could be used additively, tweaking our
However, some security experts warn that the researched to create heartier plants and dou- musculoskeletal composition and I.Q. Very
same process could be used with malicious ble-muscled livestock for human consumption. wealthy parents might be offered options to
intent—to rapidly spread a biological weapon edit and enhance their future children. This
that could be impossible to stop. will create a new divide between modified
humans and non-modified humans. The best
jobs and opportunities will be held for modi-
fied humans resulting in a new bio-engineered
caste system.
243
21 Biointerfaces & Wearables
246 Biointerfaces 249 Wearables
247
Nanomesh Temporary 250 Cloud-Based Wireless Body
Tattoos Area Networks
247 Dissolving Bioelectronics 250 Adaptive Wearable

Technologies
247 Programmable, Ingestible,
and Implantable Microbots 250
Commercial Full-Body
Exoskeletons
248 Smart Threads
251 Wearable Air Conditioners
248 Skinput
251 Brain-Machine
Interfaces (BMIs)
251 Smartwatches
252 Rings and Bracelets
252 Hearables / Earables
252 Head Mounted Displays
253 Connected Fabrics
253 Smart Belts and Shoes
253 Smart Gloves
253 Touch-Sensitive Materials
254 The Decade of
Connected Eyewear
245
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Biointerfaces
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WATCHLIST FOR SECTION

Biointerfaces act as intermediaries be- Apple, Caltech, Carnegie Mellon University,
tween a biomaterial (cells, organs, muscles, Case Western Reserve University, Center
or entire bodies) and technologies. for Humane Technology, Chinese University
of Hong Kong, Common Sense, Defense
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW Advanced Research Projects Agency
New techniques developed in the past few (DARPA), Tufts University, Duke University’s
years are leading to breakthroughs in re- Center for Neuroengineering, Elon Musk,
search on biointerfaces, which range from Facebook, Food and Drug Administration,
microscopic ingestible robots to “tattoos” Federal Communications Commission,
that function as medical sensors. Google, Google’s Soli, Harvard University’s
Wyss Institute, Harvard-MIT Division of
WHY IT MATTERS Health Sciences and Technology, Institute
New kinds of skin-based interfaces and for Basic Science, Johns Hopkins Ap-
ingestible devices could be a key to humans plied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins
living longer, healthier lives. University, Sant'Anna School of Advanced
Studies, MIT’s Department of Mechanical
New sensors can be worn like temporary tattoos. Image courtesy of Takao Someya Group THE IMPACT Engineering, National Academy of Science,
at the University of Tokyo. Neuralink, Northwestern University, Penn
These technologies have the potential to
greatly reduce the complexity and intru- State University, Seoul National Univer-
siveness of administering medicine and sity, Stanford University, StarLab, Tufts
tracking biometrics, increasing quality of University, Gemelli University Hospital,
life and enabling more detailed insight into University of California-Berkeley’s School
one’s health and wellness. of Information, University of California at
San Diego, University of Chicago, University

of Southern California, University of Texas Dissolving Bioelectronics Programmable, Ingestible, and
at Austin, University of Tokyo, University Implantable Microbots
For many people, implanted electronics
of Washington's Center for Sensorimotor
are required to live a healthy life, but the Tiny robots capable of delivering medicine
Neural Engineering.
machines require surgery, can be costly, and to a specific area of the body, or assisting
the devices sometimes need replacement with micro-surgery, are here: They can be
 TRENDS
parts. In 2018, scientists at Northwestern steered, threaded, and unfolded to patch
University revealed new research on flexible, wounds, dislodge swallowed objects,
Nanomesh Temporary Tattoos dissolvable electronic materials. In one perform biopsies, and deliver targeted
Imagine wearing a temporary tattoo instead case, they showed how the materials could medications. Researchers at the University
of taking a handful of pills every day. Re- be used during surgery. If nerves have been of California-San Diego proved in 2015 that MC10’s wearable sensors are helping re-
search is underway on nanomesh technol- severed, doctors suture them back together a nanobot, propelled by gas bubbles, had searchers run virtual clinical trials.
ogy as a diagnostic and drug delivery tool. and reawaken them using electrodes and successfully delivered medicine inside of a
Scientists at the Institute for Basic Science gentle electrical stimulation—but they typi- live mouse without causing injury. Caltech
and Seoul National University in South cally don’t have enough time in the operating scientists developed an autonomous molec-
Korea, the University of Texas at Austin, room to provide restorative therapy beyond ular robot, made of a single strand of DNA,
the University of Tokyo, Stanford, and the what would be minimally required. The team that can treat the inside of the human body
University of California-San Diego are all demonstrated that dissolving electrodes like a distribution warehouse. The nano-
working on electronic second skins. Lexing- could be used to wirelessly transmit the bot can travel around, pick up molecules,
ton, Massachusetts-based MC10 has already electrical signal and stimulate repaired and deposit them in designated locations.
created microscopic, organic semiconduc- nerves for several days, which could cut Scientists have been working on nanobot
tors and carbon nanotubes that stretch and recovery time in half. Once the therapy was technologies such as these for the past de-
flex and can be powered wirelessly. Called finished, the materials broke down and were cade. Late in 2018, scientists at the Chinese
BioStampRC, the sensors are far thicker excreted. The study was done in rats, but University of Hong Kong unveiled a new way
than a tattooable, but the principle is the it shouldn’t be long before we start to see to use nanobots within the body. Millions of
same, and it’s only a matter of time before clinical applications in humans. tiny, magnetic shape-shifting nanoparticles
the technology shrinks.
247
Biointerfaces cont.
are able to extend, merge, and collaborate Smart Threads Skinput

in a swarm. In practical terms, this means
“Smart thread” uses electrical currents Nearly a decade ago, Microsoft experi-
that a surgeon could direct the swarm to
to transmit information to doctors after mented with “skinput,” which projected a
deliver targeted medicines during surgery.
surgery. Think of it as a sort of temporary digital overly onto a person’s arm and turned
In 2019, researchers at MIT’s Department
system that connects to a smartphone or it into an interactive interface. You could
of Mechanical Engineering figured out how
other medical device and can report on your answer a call by tapping your fingertips
to create arrays of nanoscale magnets that
glucose levels, diagnose an infection, and together or press your palm to skip a song
respond to magnetic fields using a tech-
alert hospital staff if your body is chemically in your playlist. With Microsoft’s Hololens
A muscle cell resting on a bed of nanobots. nique called electron-beam lithography to
out of balance. Researchers at Tufts Uni- 2 extended reality headset, simple taps
make magnetically reconfigurable robots
versity have embedded nano-scale sensors against your skin can be used to activate
that are the size of a few micrometers. In
and electronics into surgical thread that can features. Google’s Soli is advancing this
one instance, they made a microscopic
be used for suturing. Meantime, researchers skinput idea: In December 2018, the Federal
bird-like structure that can flap its wings
at the University of California-Berkeley’s Communications Commission approved
and move as directed. This could someday
School of Information are experimenting Google’s proposed tests of a new chip that
allow surgeons to perform operations on
with color-changing smart threads. These uses radar to track micromotions. Soli is a
individual blood vessels or to manipulate
non-surgical threads are coated with miniature radar that understands human
single cells. The grand hope with all of
thermochromic paint that changes color motion at various scales—from the tap of
these technologies is that nanobots will
when jolted with electricity, and could be your finger to the broader movements of
replace one-size-fits-most medications and
used as discreet components of visual alert your body. We’re already transitioning from
therapies, treating our specific ailments in
systems, for example. Smart thread is just physical to digital touchscreen buttons;
a highly personalized way without causing
coming out of experimentation, but initial soon skinput may teach consumers to live
side effects.
test results show that it can be successfully without any buttons at all.
used as a diagnostic device.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Wearables
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT
More than 1,000 wearable devices are now
available to consumers and to the enter-  DEEPER DIVE
prise. Wearable computing systems include A Replacement for Smartphones
watches, earbuds, sensors, headbands,
Globally, smartphone shipments are in
fabrics, and other devices.
decline. Apple will no longer report sales
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW numbers for its phones—a clear signal of
what’s on the horizon. And even as new form
The latest generation of devices no longer
factors enter the consumer marketplace in
require a smartphone or computer to see
2020 (dual-sided phones and models with
and report data, adjust settings and archive
foldable screens), the functionality isn’t
information. This is known as "independent
improving at a fast-enough rate to merit
connectivity," and it will become the norm
tossing out existing phones for new ones.
in 2020.
In the next 10 years, we will transition from
a single device that we carry to a suite
WHY IT MATTERS
of next-gen communication devices that
The International Data Corporation mea-
we’ll wear and command using our voice,
Sony’s wearable air conditioner hopes to keep you cool on the move in the heat of summer. sured 31% growth in the wearables market
gesture, and touch. This future came into
during the fourth quarter of 2018 alone,
clearer view in January 2020, when Apple
but the holiday season wasn’t an anomaly.
reported $20 billion in wearable product
Growth has continued along an upward
sales for the previous year. This growth
trajectory through 2019. The Future Today
in wearables has eclipsed the company’s
Institute estimates that by the end of 2020,
growth in phones—and made the wearables
global wearable device sales could top
division itself worth as much as a Fortune
$370 million.
150 company.
249
Wearables cont.
Strategy for Wearables THE IMPACT  TRENDS Adaptive Wearable Technologies

Entertainment, media, and technology We are transitioning from devices that we Artificial exoskeletons and soft exosuits
companies should develop strategies for carry to devices that we wear. As price Cloud-Based Wireless Body Area improve human mobility after a trau-
wearable systems. Key questions to answer points drop and 5G networks are built, Networks matic incident, serving as replacements
include: wearable devices will enter the global main- Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) for human limbs. Advanced articulation
stream. communicate information from your mechanics and neurointerfaces are gen-
• How will your organization interact with
consumers via wearables? wearable devices back to medical serv- erating big strides in this field. The hard
WATCHLIST exoskeletons used today will soon evolve
ers, app manufacturers, and your home
• How will consumer expectations change
Amazon, Amazon’s Echo products, Android, computer. Sensors operate inside devices into smaller, more modular components
as a result of wearables? For example, will
Apple, Athos, Center for Brain and Cognition that monitor your heart rate or oxygen level, and designs. Researchers at the Robotics
they want to physically feel the impact of a
at the University of California-San Diego, collect data, send it back to a central hub Institute at Beihang University are devel-
football player making a tackle? Can broad-
Center for Wearable Sensors at the Univer- (most often, your smartphone), and then oping new lower-body mechanisms that are
casters transmit shows with real-time
sity of California-San Diego, Digitsole, Ekso relay the information to a medical team or lightweight and respond to the wearer in
translation? How will consumers get news
Bionics, Facebook, Google, Google’s Fitbit, healthcare monitoring service. There are real time. Meanwhile, scientists at Harvard
stories via wearables?
Halo, Harvard University’s Wyss Institute for many benefits: Rather than moving into University’s Wyss Institute for Biologically
• What are the ethical considerations of using Biologically Inspired Engineering, Sacros an assisted living facility or spending a lot Inspired Engineering are researching how
wearables to send content? To receive it? Robotics, HTC, Intel, Johns Hopkins Uni- of time in the hospital, patients can live at to transition from soft exosuits to implanted
• How might your organization use neuro- versity, Magic Leap, Microsoft, MIT Media home and receive virtual care. Cloud-based interfaces—think tiny sensors worn beneath
technology some day? What would be your Lab, Motiv, Muse, Neuralink, NextMind, Nike, systems allow for the continuous transmis- the skin—which could someday help to con-
data governance requirements? Oculus VR, ORII, Oura, PayPal, Pivot Yoga, sion of your data and real-time analysis for trol neuromuscular activity to help people
Proteus, Quanttus, Ringly, Robotics Institute issues like chronic disease (hypertension, with sever impairments regain mobility.
• What is the business case for wearables at Beihang University, Samsung, Sign-IO, high blood pressure, asthma). This trend is
within your organization? Signal, Simon Fraser University, SmartTh- still in very early stages and will accelerate Commercial Full-Body
• How might your organization glean per- ings, Soliyarn, Sony, Spire Health, Starkey, as 5G networks proliferate, because a more Exoskeletons
sonal data from your customers via their Thalmic Labs, Trimble, UnderArmour, Uni- advanced network will lead to less lag and
Movies like Iron Man and Avatar depict
wearables? How actively transparent will versity of California-Los Angeles, University could help secure personal data.
mechanized suits that can give average
you be about this data capture? of California-San Francisco, University of
humans superpowers. This year, more prac-
Chicago, Welt Corp, Withings.
tical versions of these apparatuses will be

made available for commercial applications. Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMIs) $4.6 million in funding to bring noninvasive
Sarcos Robotics’s Guardian XO is a bat- brain command technology to the gaming
University of California-Los Angeles
tery-powered suit intended for construction industry. Facebook has been working on
computer scientist Jacques J. Vidal first
sites, mines, and factories. Built to enhance several BMI projects, including a noninva-
talked about “brain machine interfaces” in
worker productivity, the suits help people sive headband that would read thoughts
the 1970s. Since then, the term has grown
lift heavy loads—up to 198 pounds—without before we say them aloud. In one partner-
to encapsulate technologies that serve as
back strain. Ekso Bionics, which develops ship with the University of California-San
interfaces between the internal workings of
medical-grade exoskeletons, created a Francisco, researchers place sheets of
the brain and the external world. Research-
vest intended to help workers more easily electrodes on the brains of volunteer test
ers are finding new ways to connect humans
perform high exertion overhead tasks. subjects to see how much of their thoughts
and mammals directly to computers. Last
can be read. Facebook, which also owns
year, Elon Musk’s Neuralink unveiled a robot
Wearable Air Conditioners capable of implanting tiny, ultrathin threads
Oculus VR, is working toward a headset that
might someday allow us to control music
For many years, Japanese and Chinese deep into the brain. It’s a step toward Musk’s
or virtual reality environments simply by
workers who must wear protective suits vision of advanced brain-machine inter-
thinking.
during summer’s intense heat have used faces—small, wearable computers with
wearable fans to keep cool. These tiny these thread-like components embedded
fans generate air inside their suits, while directly into our brain tissue. The Pentagon
Smartwatches
ventilation flaps let body heat escape. Now, has been working on similar projects that Consumers can choose among hundreds
miniature, wearable air conditioners will use both threads and pulsating lights. Much of different smartwatches from traditional The Apple Watch 5 is one of the world’s
come to market for the rest of us. Sony of the research to date has focused on watchmakers and big tech giants. Some most popular wearable devices.
developed the Reon Pocket, which relies on rehabilitation: With these human-machine models, like the newest Apple Watch 5, no
a phenomenon known as the Peltier effect, interfaces, people can communicate via longer require a mobile phone for pairing—
which moves heat between objects using thought alone, which promises new options they can connect directly to cellular net-
electrical currents. In place of a servomotor for those suffering from stroke and paral- works and can perform much of the same
and fan, this flat device is embedded into ysis. Startups Neurable and Trimble are functionality as our phones. As the Future
a shirt. Your mobile phone controls the collaborating on brain-computer interface Today Institute forecasted in 2016, smart-
thermostat and the wearable Reon Pocket projects in transportation, architecture, and watch adoption is contributing to a decline
can cool or heat your body by 23 degrees or engineering. Paris-based NextMind secured in the growth of the smartphone market.
14 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively.
251
Wearables cont.
Rings and Bracelets ears to be scanned, analyzed, and stored

on Sony’s servers. Apple’s AirPods may
Last year, Amazon unveiled the Echo Loop
soon include biometric sensors to monitor
smart ring, which functions as a speaker-
temperature, perspiration and heart rate
phone, digital assistant, and smart sensor.
during exercise or sports. Starkey’s Livio AI
It’s essentially a wearable Alexa. PayPal has
uses A.I. and an array of sensors to mod-
been researching its own connected ring,
ulate external sound—if you’re someone
intended for fast and easy payments with-
who complains that restaurants or public
out having to dig around for your phone or
places are too loud, this device may help
credit card. The Motiv and Oura rings track
you hear better, while also acting as a digital
sleeping habits, while the ORII ring lets you
assistant. New iterations will track lots of
make calls. Google’s acquisition of Fitbit
different health and behavioral metrics, like
made major news last year, and it was seen
cognitive activity and how you’re engaging
as a move to combat Apple's domination
with other people, and it will translate 27
in the watch market. Rings and bracelets
different languages in near real-time.
aren’t meant as replacements for smart-
watches per se, but if you’re a developer
looking for single-task application oppor-
Head Mounted Displays
tunities, rings and bracelets offer a good One increasingly common form of wearable
The Neuralink could someday be wired directly into your brain. alternative to more programming-intensive devices is the type of headsets used for
watch interfaces. virtual and augmented reality. What’s next:
they will soon collect your biometric data
Hearables / Earables and other personal information in order to
provide added functionality. The HTC Vive
In-ear computers, otherwise known as ear-
tracks your movement, while controller
ables, are here. Sony’s 360 Reality Audio is
sticks send haptic signals to your brain as
a new format that uses Sony’s object-based
you work your way through simulated envi-
spatial audio technology to enhance sound—
ronments. (See also: Mixed Reality.)
setup requires that you allow photos of your

Connected Fabrics Smart Belts and Shoes Simon Fraser University designed a set of We’ve already seen some exciting develop-
interconnected gloves to help transmit the ments. Neuroscientists at the University of
In the past, connected clothing has required Welt Corp sells a smart belt that can detect
sense of touch through the internet. When Chicago are experimenting with touch-sen-
wires and sensors, which can make fabrics falls—and it sends push notifications if it
someone moves her fingers in one glove, sitive robotics and rhesus monkeys, whose
stiff or uncomfortable. That’s starting to senses that you’ve eaten too much. Nike’s
her actions are sent to her partner wear- neural-sensory biology is most similar to
change, and it will likely lead to more smart self-fastening Electric Adaptable Reaction
ing the other. Sony has been filing patents humans. They successfully simulated the
clothes for the masses. A process called Lacing shoes adjust to the contours of your
for haptic glove controllers, which would sensation of touch by stimulating certain
“reactive vapor deposition,” for instance, is feet. French insole manufacturer Digitsole
simulate the physical sensations of slicing, areas of the brain. A team of scientists from
being used to engineer fabric with smart makes connected insoles that fit inside
punching, and shooting. the Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies
circuitry embedded into the cloth. Start- the existing shoes of cyclists and runners
and the Gemelli University Hospital in Rome
up Soliyarn is working on imperceptible, and record and communicate their activity
flexible sensors woven into self-heating data—plus, they can keep your feet warm.
Touch-Sensitive Materials developed a bionic hand that transmits a
realistic sense of touch; it’s already in use,
gloves for the U.S. military. Athletic wear is Baltimore-based Under Armour makes Researchers are developing new prosthetic
restoring sensation to a woman who lost her
another key market for connected fabrics. connected running shoes, which rely on skins and limbs that restore not just move-
hand in an accident 25 years ago.
Soliyarn is working on smart pajamas and foam soles with accelerometers, gyro- ment, but touch as well. In 2018, researchers
sleep-sensing masks, while others are scopes, batteries, and Bluetooth modules. at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore
developing pajamas that can emit infrared The shoes collect and store data, allowing created an electronic skin to help restore
energy to help your muscles recover faster you to go out for a run without having to a sense of touch to amputees. Dubbed
from a hard workout. Pivot Yoga makes con- bring along your smartphone. They also set “e-dermis,” it recreates the sense of touch
nected yoga pants—you read that right—that a baseline the first time you use them, and (including pain) by sensing physical stimuli
monitor your downward dogs and help you then track distance, stride length and your and sending those signals back to the pe-
adjust your form. The connected clothing running cadence over time. ripheral nerves. Interdisciplinary research-
syncs to an app, through which a digital ers at the Center for Wearable Sensors and
assistant will tell you when to turn your left Smart Gloves the Center for Brain and Cognition at the
hip or to move your legs a few inches back University of California-San Diego are com-
In Kenya, a researcher invented smart
on the mat. Spire Health makes a fab- bining materials science and psychophys-
gloves that can translate sign language
ric-coating that can be attached to bras and ics to map exactly how humans perceive
into speech. The gloves, called Sign-IO, use
underwear to help track your breathing and touch. This research lays the groundwork
gesture recognition and sensors embed-
stress level. for the advanced prosthetics of the future.
ded in the gloves. Canadian researchers at
253
The Decade of Connected Eyewear
DR. BRIAN WOOLF, O.D., CEO OF WOOLF EYE LAB
This is the decade of connected eyewear. The world’s largest technology companies—Apple,
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook—are all working, in some way, on connected devices
that you wear over your eyes.
These smart glasses will offer a number of key benefits, mostly in the way we interpret in-
formation. Humans evolved to see objects clearly from afar—a useful ability as we wandered
the Savanna and spotted threats and opportunities at a distance. Today, however, that
distance vision poses a problem, because we spend so much of our time staring at all sizes
and shapes of screens, many at close range. The result is tired eyes, headaches, and blurry
vision at the end of a long day. These are just a few of the problems caused by Computer
Vision Syndrome, and it’s becoming more prevalent.
Our eyes weren’t made for this. A little primer on how the eye works: In a completely relaxed
state, our eyes focus light received from a distance into a sharp point at the back of the
eyeball, on a layer of tissue called the retina. Transitioning from distance vision to close
vision, we must adjust our focus so that the light from this new, nearer source is once again
sharp and defined when it reaches the retina. To do this, we tighten a small muscle in our
eyes that bends the lens into a different shape, causing the light to be focused correctly.
But it requires active energy to keep that muscle constricted and keep our near vision
sharp. Doing that wasn’t a big deal when we sat for a few hours honing sticks into spears
or weaving reeds into baskets. But in the modern era, we’re spending eight, twelve, even
fourteen hours a day focused intently on screens, something our eyes were never designed
for—and it’s taking a toll. In the past decade of seeing patients, I’ve counted sharp increases
in myopia, or nearsightedness, as the body tries to adjust to constantly looking up close.
Technology is moving way faster than our bodies can evolve, and it’s causing problems.

Smart glasses promise to help. Instead of projecting light at you—the way a phone screen Over the decade, as this technology becomes more ubiquitous, the possibilities will become
does, for example—these wearables project light into you, emulating the way you would endless. We’ll switch from looking at information on handheld screens to using devices
receive light from a distant object. There’s no need for internal eye focusing to get a sharp, like Magic Leap, which send information directly to our eyes, more or less the way nature
clear image—even though the device might be right next to, or even touching the eye, the intended. Our brains live in a dark silent cave and only know what’s going on in the outside
images presented appear to you as though they’re coming from far away. world because of what our sensorial organs report back to it. Through AR, we can utilize our
eyes and ears to send information that we’ve created—rather than information we’ve pas-
When it comes to smart glasses and augmented reality, things really get interesting. We’ve
sively received—to our brains for processing, allowing us to manipulate our perception and
come to understand that the eyes are just conduits to get raw information to the brain,
convince our brains that whatever we’d created is in fact the real world. We can essentially
where it’s processed—this sensorial and cognitive phenomenon is what we call vision. When
become all-powerful architects of our own audiovisual reality.
virtual information is projected onto the retina, as it would be through an AR headset or
smart eyewear, the eye is happy to pass that information along to the brain just the same Of course this poses plenty of potential problems. We may end up with two classes of
as if it had been received from your physical environment. This means well-rendered digital people: those who can afford this new augmented reality world, and those with only tra-
elements and virtual overlays very quickly get integrated into our personal system of vision ditional human vision. And as we now begin to confront the reality of deepfakes and other
and become part of what we perceive as our reality. sources of false information, other dangers arise. For instance, what if you could hack into
a person’s system of vision and create a false reality that was indistinguishable from “true”
I’ve used multiple prototypes of new extended reality headsets, such as Magic Leap and
reality? It would call into question today’s notion that to verify a fact or occurrence, one
Microsoft’s HoloLens2. It’s remarkable how quickly you take in the new information these
must “see it to believe it.”
devices present you with, and how seamlessly it becomes part of the world you’re liv-
ing in. Unlike virtual reality, which is fully immersive and in current iterations can have a What is clear, however, is that these new connected glasses will be the future. They can
general feeling of artificiality to it, new augmented reality technologies digitally map your feed us information in the way we’ve evolved to receive it, and, as a result, we can process
environment, and the images they project for you interact with and react to the real world it faster and more completely. It’s a lot easier to react to a bear jumping out of the woods
you’re standing in. For instance, you might see your desk as you would with your naked eye, at you when you see it happening in real time—versus reading a push notification on your
but also see a digitally generated miniature dinosaur walking around on it. That dinosaur phone that says “A bear has jumped out of the woods at you.” With smart eyewear you’ll get
“knows” not to fall off the edge of the desk, and if it bumps into your lamp, it will move more information with less distraction, and with less strain on your eyes. Ultimately, that’s
around it. Using Magic Leap, I put a digital wall sticker on the far side of my room, and when good for everyone.
my session was over and I took off the device, I was genuinely surprised the sticker was
gone. It had already become an accepted part of my surroundings.
255
22 Health &
Medical Technologies
258 Big Tech Gets
Into Healthcare
259 Patient-Generated
Health Data
Automated Medical
260
Transcription
261 Hospitals as
Tech Innovators
257
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Big Tech Gets Into Healthcare
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight and will roll out health plans to its employ- gle and Alphabet-owned Verily worked on The Impact
ees in 2020. Amazon also made a $2 million A.I. and computer vision solutions for med-
The future of healthcare could soon look Healthcare is a $3 trillion market, and with
investment in Boston-based Beth Israel ical imaging analysis. Google’s electronic
very different than it does today as Google, its inflated pricing and outdated systems, it
Deaconess Medical Center to improve health record voice assistant Suki became
Amazon, Apple, IBM, and Microsoft disrupt is particularly ripe for disruption.
patient care and efficiency in operating a helpful resource for some doctors. Don’t
health and medicine.
and emergency rooms with its AWS cloud forget that Google acquired Fitbit, as well. Watchlist
Why It Matters and A.I. tools. Its Alexa voice assistant was Apple continued its move into electronic
Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Baidu,
deemed HIPAA compliant last year—no health records, upgrading its Health App to
The world’s largest tech companies are Berkshire Hathaway, Google, IBM, JPMor-
small feat—which paves the way for hospital include personal data as part of a massive
leading various health initiatives, which gan, Microsoft, Tencent, healthcare provid-
and pharmaceutical partnerships. Amazon’s partnership with the Department of Veter-
include basic scientific research, research ers, hospitals, and government agencies.
PillPack integrates its online pharmacy with ans Affairs. Within Apple’s employee health
investments in the healthcare application
some of the biggest insurance providers in clinics, patients get free genetic screenings
process, developing innovative health
America. Amazon Care—a hybrid in-person courtesy of the company’s partnership with
insurance models, creating new clinics, and
healthcare system and virtual clinic where genetic testing startup Color. Apple watch-
enabling the capture and analysis of person-
Amazon employees get live, in-app visits es and earbuds are also being oriented for
al health data via interactive devices.
from doctors and nurses—has acquired integration within its healthcare ecosystem.
or partnered with numerous healthcare
Examples What’s Next
providers for A.I. research. Google is equally
Last year, Microsoft and China’s Tencent aggressive about healthcare. About 7% Big tech companies are now competing
captured more than 70% of all startup of the searches performed on Google are to recruit top medical talent, to establish
investment deals made in digital health. health and medicine related. In 2019, Goo- research partnerships, and, of course, to
Meanwhile, Amazon made its health gle’s Project Nightingale teamed up with get access to our data. They each have
strategy more clear. Haven—Amazon’s joint Ascension, one of the largest health-care ambitious health strategies that we will see
health insurance venture with JPMorgan Amazon pushed quickly and assertively into
systems in the U.S., to mine and analyze unfold in the coming years.
and Berkshire Hathaway—hired 50 people the healthcare space in 2019.
personal health data across 21 states. Goo-

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Patient-Generated Health Data
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight records—with patient consent. GE Health- On a near-weekly basis, hackers target
care, Meditech, Allscripts, eClinicalWorks, hospitals and doctors, holding patient data
Demand for patient data is on the rise.
and Cerner are all building products to make for ransom. In May 2017, hackers used the
Hospital records contain sensitive personal
better use of our data. WannaCry malware to break into the UK’s
information, and the ability to integrate that
National Health Service, crippling the
data with the latest-and-greatest technolo- We also generate data at the doctor’s office,
nation’s hospitals and clinics. In January
gies often means making that data accessi- and under federal law in the U.S., that data
2018, hackers used a remote access portal
ble to tech companies. must be filed and stored electronically.
to break into a rural Indiana hospital and
The medical community and public health
Why It Matters restrict access to patient data. They de-
sector are now trying to find ways to make
manded four bitcoin to restore data access.
Individuals are generating a trove of data good use of all that information. Differential
The timing was awful: A serious ice storm
We are generating data through wearable that could contribute to their healthcare privacy measures could enable hospital sys-
had caused a spike in emergency room
devices like this Fitbit Versa. provider’s patient assessments and subse- tems to anonymize our private details while
visits, and the community was battling a flu
quent strategies. Packaging all that data— still making our data useful to researchers.
outbreak. The volume of patient data has
and figuring out how to make use of it—is
What’s Next sparked a new field within the life sciences
still a challenge.
business: patient data security. Veeva Sys-
A challenge for tech companies is de-iden-
tems builds tools that prevent unauthorized
Examples tifying our data so that our privacy is
access.
From Google’s Fitbit, to Apple’s Watch and protected and federal regulations are met,
Airpods, to smart scales we use at home, and to free up that data for use in training Watchlist
there are hundreds of devices that can A.I. systems. Safeguarding and maintaining
vast genetic and personal health data will Amazon, Allscripts, Apple, Cerner, eClinical-
collect and monitor our health using various
be paramount as consumers purchase their Works, GE Healthcare, Google, HumanAPI,
inputs. New software from companies like
own genetic testing kits through third-party IBM, Manulife Financial, Medicaid, Medicare,
Validic allow doctors to collect this other
companies like 23andMe. Meditech, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Validic, Ve-
data and incorporate it into their medical
eva Systems, Vivify, national health systems.
259
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Automated Medical Transcription
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight machine learning could help doctors learn The Impact
even more about their patients during visits.
Dictating patient notes is a core task in The biggest challenge for tech companies
a clinical practice. Artificial intelligence What’s Next will be proving the compliance and accu-
promises faster transcriptions, as well as racy of their systems. Imagine an error in
In December 2019, Amazon launched
real-time diagnostic analysis. which “hyperglycemic” (high blood sugar) is
Amazon Transcribe Medical and a compan-
mistakenly recorded as “hypoglycemic” (low
Why It Matters ion service called Amazon Comprehend
blood sugar).
Medical. Both are intended to make medical
Transcribing recordings is a tedious process
that relies on excellent sound quality and a
practices more efficient. Transcribe Med- Watchlist
In 2019, Amazon announced its medical ical does what its name says: It runs voice
good understanding of medical terminolo- Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Google, IBM,
transcription service. recognition on audio of doctor-patient
gy—not to mention confidentiality. Making Microsoft, Nuance, Stanford University,
interactions and transcribes the conver-
the process more efficient and effortless healthcare providers, hospitals, and govern-
sations directly into an electronic medical
could improve operations throughout hospi- ment agencies.
record. In a private practice without medical
tals and medical practices.
residents, this frees the doctor from having
Examples to move between the patient and her com-
puter to enter symptoms and other informa-
In order to meet compliance regulations,
tion. Comprehend Medical is intended for
a strict protocol must be followed for the
developers to help them use unstructured
transcription to be legally performed by a
medical text in diagnostic tools. AWS’s
third party. But what if the transcription is
software is designed to be integrated into
performed in real-time? Not only would it be
devices and apps using an API. Microsoft’s
easier and more cost-effective for building
Azure and Google Cloud are also working on
patient records, but an additional layer of
similar systems.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Hospitals as Tech Innovators
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight the creativity” out of their students, so he in- can sleep, work, and exercise in that can be
stead started looking to Silicon Valley to gain easily integrated with technology to give
Medical and health knowledge is increasing
inspiration for new hires at Jefferson Health you real-time metrics on your health and
exponentially, and new artificial intelligence
with backgrounds in design, technology, and communicate that information with your
systems promise to transform how we under-
creative problem solving, and who happen healthcare provider, too.
stand and care for patients. Some hospitals
to be interested in the medical sciences.
are now evolving into centers for innovation The Impact
The hospital system is actively partnering
in technology as well as healthcare.
with and investing in health and medical Roughly 6.5% of Americans had one or
Why It Matters startups—a drastic shift from other hospital more hospital stays in 2017. Great quality of
systems which instead tend to focus invest- care in hospitals can mean better, healthier
The future profit generators of hospitals
ments in brick-and-mortar real estate. lifestyles once patients return home.
Jefferson Health is pioneering a new tech- could be an evolution from our current
inspired culture within healthcare. system, which relies heavily on insurance What’s Next Watchlist
systems. Investing in health innovations and
The future of health tech includes home Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Google, IBM, Jef-
emerging technologies could be alternate
diagnostic equipment, A.I.-powered clinical ferson Health, Microsoft, Stanford Univer-
profit centers.
decision support tools, and sensor-em- sity, Yale University, healthcare providers,
Examples bedded clothing that can improve the hospital networks.
quality of hospital stays. Hospitals that can
In Philadelphia, Dr. Stephen Klasko, pres-
maintain consistent contact and interac-
ident of Thomas Jefferson University and
tion with patients both on- and off-site will
CEO of Jefferson Health, spearheaded
have a better shot at keeping them healthy
dozens of initiatives to transform the city’s
throughout their lifespans. Jefferson Health
entire hospital system. Klasko often says
has partnered with a startup that is carbon-
that medical schools are designed to “suck
izing hemp—the result is soft fabrics you
261
23 Home
Automation
266 Digital Emissions
266 Interoperability
266 Retrofitting Old Homes
with New Tech
266 Forced Bundling and
Planned Obsolescence
266 Real Estate and Home
Building Powered
by Platforms
266 Smart Cameras
267 Smart Camera
News Networks
267 Networked Smart Devices
Interactive Fitness
267
Equipment
267 The End of Remote Control
267 Smart Appliance Screens
263
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Home Automation
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WATCHLIST FOR SECTION  DEEPER DIVE

Connected appliances, lights, thermostats, Amazon, ADT Pulse, Amazon Neighbors App, Consolidation in Home Operating
plugs, and other devices can be networked Amazon Turnkey, Apple, Arlo Ultra, August Systems
inside a home to automate everyday tasks. Home, Bosch Home Connect, Botrista,
There are lots of smart home devices now
Brilliant Control, Carnegie Mellon University,
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW available in the market, but increasingly few
Comcast, Connect, Dyson, Ecobee, Ecovacs,
platforms are capable of connecting them
The U.S. market has seen a steady year- Electronic Frontier Foundation, Facebook,
all together. The companies behind those
over-year growth in home automation prod- Federal Trade Commission, FET Kitchen,
platforms should come as no surprise:
ucts. Security systems and smart speakers FightCamp Gym, Google, Google Home Hub,
Amazon, Apple, and Google. Devices are
Mirror transforms from a discreet account for the largest share of devices sold Google Nest, Honeywell, Huawei, Husqvar-
ubiquitous and increasingly affordable, but
wall-mounted mirror into an interactive so far. There are still competing interopera- na, Hydrow Rower, IBM, Ikea, Innit, iRobot,
the real revenue won’t be from device sales
fitness interface. bility standards and protocols. JaxJox Kettlebell, KitchenAid, Lennar,
anyway—it will come from the monetization
Logiech, Logitech, Microsoft, Mirror, Nanit,
WHY IT MATTERS of information captured by those devices in
Nest, Peloton, Philips Hue, Rachio, Realogy,
their data-rich domestic environments.
This is one of the fastest growing sectors of Ring, Roku, Samsung, Siemens, SimpliSafe,
consumer technology in North America. Sleep Number, SmartThings, Sonos, Tonal, In 2020, speaker manufacturer Sonos sued
Truveon, Whirlpool, Worx, Wyze, Yeelight, Google in two federal court systems for
THE IMPACT Zigbee Alliance, ZTE. patent infringement, but its legal action
Estimates vary, but researchers forecast had less to do with patents and more to
that the value of the global smart home do with how Google and Amazon built the
market could range between $160 billion and smart home infrastructure that companies
$240 billion by 2025. like Sonos rely on. Back in 2013, Sonos
partnered with Google, giving engineers
detailed diagrams on how the Sonos
systems worked. At the time, Google was

not yet making speakers. Three years later to develop applications for consumers. everyone in the ecosystem—home builders,
Google Home was unveiled, a product that (Usually agreements are signed beforehand, OEMs, platforms, ISPs, and app developers—
applied a Sonos-like approach to make however, to protect everyone involved.) will depend on the successful management
speakers communicate with each other. of our data. Building trust in our home auto-
Since its launch, Sonos had advertised New Social Contracts mation systems will unlock shared value for
its speakers on Google and sold them Every time you open a website, use a social businesses. To get there, we will need a new
on Amazon, and the company used both media platform, or access the hundreds of social contract for smart homes and those
ecosystems to reach its customers. When available digital tools and services, you are who live in them.
Amazon and Google entered the smart either explicitly or implicitly agreeing to a
speaker market with cheaper alternatives company’s legal terms. Nearly all of us scroll THE IMPACT
Google’s Nest Hub helps manage connected
and far greater potential reach, Sonos sued. to the checkbox and click to agree without One key development for 2020 is the wide-
devices in a smart home.
Amazon, which sells Echo devices similar reading. Those documents are very, very spread extension of devices into our homes
to Sonos speakers with multi-room music long and if you didn’t attend law school, they as the broader consumer electronics mar-
playing functionality, claims that it hasn’t can be confusing and difficult to under- ket continues to grow. By 2023, we expect
infringed on Sonos’s technology. Likewise, stand. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon cal- one third of the world’s population to own at
Google’s defended itself, saying it had been culated how much time it would take to read least one computing device (smartphone,
in productive IP conversations with Sonos all the terms of service, privacy policies, and laptop) and to either have access to or own
for several years. The case is analogous other legal documents we’re served—they one additional connected device, such as a
to several others brought by smaller tech estimated it would take us each approxi- smart plug, speaker, or pedometer. Today’s
companies accusing the tech giants of mately 76 business days, reading 8 hours a devices and those introduced over the next
taking their ideas, their technology, and day, to get through all the paperwork we’re decade promise to give consumers access
their market share. To be fair, startups show shown in an average year. to bundled entertainment packages, shop-
their technology to bigger tech companies ping platforms, and other personal services
And yet people are increasingly concerned
all the time for a variety of reasons: to gain benefits—all of which rely on our personal
about their privacy. As smart home technol-
access to platforms and device ecosystems, and behavioral data.
ogy becomes more universal, the success of
for possible investment or acquisition, and
265
Home Automation cont.
 TRENDS Alliance to explore ways to make their de- included RFID chips. If you didn’t buy one of and build brand-new smart homes powered
vice ecosystems more interoperable. theirs, which is substantially more expen- by Amazon’s technology.
Digital Emissions sive than other brands of filters, you didn't
The average person isn’t aware of how

Retrofitting Old Homes with get water. As more smart home appliances Smart Cameras
New Tech become available, we anticipate arbitrary
much data they’re shedding. Collectively, In 2018, Amazon announced a new feature
technical barriers that make the devices
our homes are starting to produce digital As smart home devices become more ubiq- for its Ring doorbells. The system automati-
beyond a certain period of time. That leads
emissions, which includes all the data not uitous and affordable, people are working to cally recognizes people, making it easier for
to a thorny question: Could we be causing
actively used and processed by devices. retrofit old homes with new technologies. homeowners and tenants to see and track
future environmental damage by forcibly
Bits of information in that network include Purchasing a smart fire alarm system is everyone coming to their home or apart-
bricking our devices every few years? For
things like your body temperature as you easy enough, but it could be a challenge ment. There are added features, too: In
example, if a company retires an operating
watch TV, the ambient hums and creaks to install and maintain it in a home with some communities, local police are asking
system for its smart refrigerator, should
that your home makes at night, and the aging or outdated wiring, for example. For residents to opt in to a program giving law
consumers still have the right to at least use
communication pings your devices make. now, many systems require a strong cabled enforcement access to camera footage.
the refrigerator in its traditional function
Digital emissions aren’t harmful to the envi- internet system to work properly. That could Patents filed by researchers at Amazon
for temperature-controlled storage? If not
ronment, but they’re an untapped resource change, though, as 5G networks become show a version of the camera technology
they’d have to throw it away, creating un-
to be mined and analyzed—with transparen- more prevalent and smart home technol- with a field of view that extends beyond
necessary and potentially harmful waste.
cy and permissions, of course. ogies are able to work wirelessly without the doorstep, to driveways, streets, narrow
latency issues. passageways between or behind buildings,
Real Estate and Home Building
Interoperability and virtually anywhere the smart cameras
Powered by Platforms are placed. Google’s Nest system similarly
Smart home technologies aren’t necessarily Forced Bundling and Planned
Obsolescence Big tech companies are getting into the identifies faces and allows users to input
easily interoperable. A Google speaker won’t
real estate market. Amazon partnered with names, and it can be trained to recognize
interact with devices running on Amazon’s A decade ago, companies that sold printers
Realogy in 2019 to help launch its TurnKey friends, family, and those who consumers
smart home platform, for example. While made tweaks to their technology to prevent
home buying platform on Amazon.com. don’t want near their homes. Smart cameras
savvy users can buy smart cameras that can generic ink cartridges from being used.
The system connects buyers to real estate automatically detect a face, zoom in, and
run on open source tools, the average family That same technique is starting to be used
agents and Amazon move-in experts who follow that person as they move around.
typically needs to make a decision and run in connected home appliances and devices.
will help select smart devices for your new Millions of hours of security camera footage
either Google, Apple, or Amazon gear. In A few years ago, General Electric started
home and will connect them for you. Ama- are now being uploaded regularly from
2019, the three companies joined the Zigbee requiring consumers to replace water filters
zon has also run a trial program with Lennar, these devices. Consumers can access it,
in its refrigerators with new versions that
America’s largest home builder, to develop share and repost it as they want, and give
third parties access to footage as well. To Networked Smart Devices treadmill with a companion app that leads actors, ask questions about shows, and
allay privacy concerns, Nest released a firm- users through a variety of running and train- bypass the button-navigated menu system
For the past decade, researchers have
ware upgrade that turns on a light on each ing classes. The JaxJox Kettlebell Connect to quickly find what they want to watch. We
worked on something called device handoff,
camera anytime it’s recording. is a kettlebell set that tracks your move- tend to associate remote controls just with
aiming for more efficient communication
ment using Bluetooth. Mirror is an interac- our televisions, but you can expect to see
among devices across a network. In 2020,
Smart Camera News Networks our smart home appliances will increasingly
tive gym masquerading as—you guessed new uses for remotes in the years to come.
it—a full-length, wall-mounted mirror. A However, as digital voice assistants become
Amazon’s Ring includes an app called Neigh- collaborate on the backend. For example,
coach leads recorded or live classes and the more integrated with various consumer
bors that allows users to post the videos Innit’s platform lets kitchen appliances talk
mirror interface actively helps you adjust electronics, smart remotes will give way to
they’ve recorded—it also encourages them to one another, even if your appliances come
your form. Meanwhile, Tonal is an interactive embedded speakers and microphones with-
to post videos and photos of suspicious from several different brands. In 2019, Innit
fitness mirror that comes with adjustable in our devices. TCL Roku TVs will soon be
activity, crime, and other notable occur- teamed up with Google Home Hub and other
arms for resistance and weight training. equipped with far-field microphone arrays.
rences within neighborhoods. As of August smart displays to further connect your kitch-
The system will automatically detect your Samsung will keep its remotes for now, but
2019, 225 U.S. police departments could en. There are lots of other options: the Bosch
performance and increase or decrease the they will start to rely heavily on its smart
retain the right to request video footage Home Connect smart kitchen line connects
resistance accordingly during your workout. assistant. All of this sounds exciting—unless
from Ring doorbell users. In addition, anyone to Nest Protect. If you forget that pizza in
The Hydrow Rower is a connected rowing you are hoarse, are a non-native English
can download the free mobile app and gain the oven and it starts to catch fire, your Nest
machine with adjustable resistance levels speaker, have a thick accent, or are unable
access to videos posted, even if they aren’t smoke detector will tell the oven to turn itself
and pre-recorded workouts. FightCamp to speak.
Ring users. The app shows video clips that off. In the coming year, we’ll see more inte-
Gym is a connected punching bag with
can be annotated by uploaders, while a grations across brands and appliances.
“News Team” supplements the feed of videos
corresponding classes accessible from iOS Smart Appliance Screens
devices.
with short stories about burglaries, fires, Interactive Fitness Equipment Major appliance manufacturers are includ-
and other events—some of which is pulled ing smart screens in upcoming models,
from sources like the Associated Press. The
The last few years saw the launch of smart The End of Remote Control supported by Alexa and Google Assistant.
fitness equipment, including mirrors, bikes,
app, however, can easily be manipulated: Video content creators must improve tag- The Samsung Family Hub smart refrigerator
and treadmills. Peloton’s connected bike
There are numerous instances of people ging, titles, and meta-data automation—and and Whirlpool Cabrio washing machines will
and subscription model have chipped away
uploading and intentionally mis-tagging fast. In 2020, more remote controls will be allow users to interact with the devices via
at popular rivals SoulCycle and Equinox
photos of people, reporting “suspicious” ac- equipped with voice recognition systems. touchscreens and smartphones. The smart
by allowing bike owners to join live group
tivity without any real evidence or data, and Subscribers to Comcast’s Xfinity already screen interfaces offer customization—new
classes from home. Last year, the company
submitting purposely racist content. have access to voice-controlled remote specialty cycles and programs can be down-
launched its Peloton Tread, a connected
controls, which allow users to search for loaded from the internet.
267
You’re an Amazon, Apple, or Google Family in our Digital Caste System of the Future
MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
In the year 2035, Apple households tend to be wealth- ally override their systems, and they can connect a Because Amazon was smartest in its approach work-
ier and older. They can afford all of Apple’s sleek, greater variety of things—such as coffee makers and ing with federal, state, and local governments—offer-
beautiful hardware. Apple’s smart glasses, connected outdoor irrigation systems—to their homes. Green ing them deep discounts at Amazon.com, patiently
toilets, and custom refrigerators carry on its long families pay for the privilege of opting out of market- working through procurement requirements, and
tradition of pricey products that are intuitive and easy ing and advertising, though their data is still collected building and maintaining cloud services customized
to use. Apple’s system comes with voice interfaces and sent to third parties. Google Blue is an affordable specifically for their needs—it became the preferred
and a choice of two soothing voices. But convenience option with limited unlocking privileges and some platform for certain social services in the United
comes with a cost: Apple’s A.I.s cannot be overwrit- additional permissions, but Blue families are still sub- States. That is how Amazon discovered how to lever-
ten. In an Apple home running the air conditioner, jected to marketing. Google Yellow is the lowest tier. age the long tail of government funding.
you can’t open the door for more than a minute or the It’s free but comes with no override abilities, a small
Low-income families now live in Amazon Housing,
system will start beeping incessantly. If there’s suffi- selection of available devices and appliances, and it
which has replaced city-funded public housing pro-
cient daylight detected by the sensors embedded in has limited data protections.
grams in the United States. By every measure, they
your light bulbs, then the Apple system keeps the light
Amazon went in an interesting, but ultimately smarter, are far superior to any public housing ever provided
switch on lockdown.
direction. A few announcements Amazon made in the through our previous government programs. Ama-
We saw a preview of Google’s connected home a de- fall of 2018 went largely unnoticed, such as the launch zon Homes are completely outfitted with connected
cade-and-a-half ago at the 2018 South By Southwest of its AmazonBasics microwave, which includes a devices in every room. The former Supplemental Nu-
Festival in Austin, Texas. Back then, the tagline was voice interface. Users could put a bag of popcorn in trition Assistance Program (previously known as the
“Make Google do it,” and attractive spokesmodels took the microwave and ask Alexa to pop it. Tech journal- Food Stamp Program) is currently hosted by Amazon,
small groups around the three-story home to interact ists wrote the microwave off as a novel, silly use for which provides steeply discounted Amazon-branded
with A.I.-powered appliance screens and connected Alexa, and missed the bigger picture: The system was food and drink, as well as household products, toilet-
frozen daiquiri makers. Google’s system is less intui- actually designed to get us hooked on subscription ries, and books.
tive, but it makes better use of our data—and it offers popcorn. That’s because the microwave tracks both
Unsurprisingly, this program works seamlessly. There
different levels of service and access. For those who what we’re heating up and what we’re ordering on the
are never delays in funds being distributed, it’s easy
can afford the upgrade fees and have enough tech Amazon platform. A new box arrives before you ever
to look up the status of an account, and all transac-
savvy, Google Green gives families the ability to manu- have the chance to run out.
tions can be completed without ever having to wait

in a long line at a government office. Those living in Your status is visible to all of the A.I.s you interact and Human Services Department thought nudging
Amazon Homes must buy most of their things through with. Self-driving taxi services like Lyft, Uber, and poor people was a clever way to improve health and
Amazon while their data is scraped, productized, and CitiCar don’t pick up Amazon riders with as much fre- wellness, so the department issued new policies
monetized for various initiatives. Amazon’s A.I.s are quency, and cars sent to them tend not to be as nice. requiring all public housing units to be outfitted with
the most pervasive, following Amazon families every- Waymo cars exclusively pick up Googlers. For Greens, Locker technology. The Lockers may look like ordi-
where they go to collect valuable behavioral data. the car is preset to the rider’s desired temperature nary pantries, refrigerator doors and closets, but they
and ambient lighting scheme, and it drives along the act like A.I.-powered juries. If an Amazon Housing
The lack of interoperability between A.I. frameworks rider’s preferred routes. Yellows are subjected to customer hasn’t had her exercise that day, the Locker
and systems led to segregation by our data and advertising their entire trip. system will decide to keep the freezer closed and
household, and that is why we now have a digital caste won’t let her eat ice cream.
system. By choosing Google, Apple, or Amazon, you Advertising isn’t the only headache for Yellow
are forced to align your family values with the values Googlers. One downside to all the subsidized (or free) It’s not impossible to intermarry—occasionally an
of the corporation. Apple families are rich, maybe a gadgets, appliances, and gear offered to Google Blue, Amazon will marry into an Apple family—but that old
little less A.I.-savvy, and live in fancy houses. Google Google Yellow, and Amazon families is that it’s impos- adage “opposites attract” no longer applies. All of our
families might be rich and techy, or middle class and sible to disconnect the A.I. health and wellness mind- A.I.-powered dating services now match us based on
fine with marketing, or complacent enough that hav- ers, which continually monitor, diagnose and nudge. our data, and what tech giant we’ve aligned ourselves
ing a lot of choices in life doesn’t matter all that much. When they were built, computer scientists defined with can be a major criterion. On the one hand, we
There is no way to sugarcoat Amazon families: They’re health and wellness with rigidity out of necessity. no longer suffer under the tyranny of choice, since
poor, even if they have free access to cool gadgets. Now the collective values of A.I.’s earlier tribes are dating A.I.s have drastically reduced the selection of
an oppressive souvenir of a simpler time. A failure to possible suitors. But some of the choices that once
Families are locked into their de facto home operat- comply with health and wellness minders results in a made us uniquely human—like opting for May-Decem-
ing systems, and that designation travels with them, litany of alerts and punitive restrictions. ber romances, or dating someone our parents don’t
even being passed from generation to generation. It’s approve of—are less available to us now. In America,
easier for a Google Yellow family to port into the Blue Remember those Amazon Lockers, that you may have society is beginning to feel uncomfortably Huxleian,
or even Green level than an Amazon family to port into used many years ago to pick up all the things you or- as we acquiesce, get married, and have babies with
the Apple system. That’s why most families that could dered on the Amazon app and on Amazon.com? They our fellow Apples, or Google Blues, or Amazons.
opted in to Google when they had the opportunity. made their way into Amazon Housing. The U.S. Health
269
24 Privacy
274 The End of 276 Differential Privacy
Biological Privacy
277 Defining Online Harassment
275 Public Entities Selling
Private Data
277 Safeguarding and Verifying
Leaked Data
275 Connected Device
Security Loopholes
277 Promoting Anonymity
275 Tech Workers Fighting

278 Trolls
for Privacy 278 Verification
Encrypted Messaging
275 278 Data Retention Policies
Networks
278 Compliance Challenges
275 Vanishing Messages and Unrealistic Budgets
Digital Eavesdropping
275 278 Revenge Porn
Rights
279 Drone Surveillance
276 Data Ownership
279 Influencing Future
276 Digital Self-Incrimination Privacy Laws
271
7TH YEAR ON LIST
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Privacy
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH

In the digital era, our data is currency. But Numerous advocacy groups, trade associ-
as connected devices and systems become ations, tech companies and legislators are
more popular, privacy is a growing concern. now debating a number of issues related to
New technologies, mobile applications, privacy, including rights to data ownership
gaming systems, websites and e-com- and portability, a digital bill of rights, and
merce platforms have made personal data standardized tools that would allow people
more accessible and easier to collect, to protect their digital privacy.
while advanced A.I. systems can now use
those data to sort and categorize us. Often,
this happens without our knowledge or
oversight.

In the year since the massive Cambridge
Keybase represents the next generation of encrypted messaging networks. Analytica scandal, questions remain about
the right to privacy in an age of surveillance
capitalism. While some data is used legit-
imately to improve products and services,
other data is used to capture our attention,
anticipate our choices and nudge us to
particular decisions.

Year it
Law, Country went into Response
effect
General Data 2018 While GDPR is known as the world’s strictest

Protection privacy law, some critics say the law lacks
Regulation enforcement. Arguably, the biggest legacy of
(GDPR) EU GDPR is the string of similar legislation it has
inspired around the world.
Personal 2018 Inspired by the EU’s GDPR, China’s law spec-

Information ifies how personal data should be collected,
Security used, and shared. It’s a uniquely Chinese plan:
Specification, the law is meant to build consumer trust  DEEPER DIVE use their personal information in ways they
China without undermining the government’s ability will be comfortable with.”
Ethical Concerns
to gain access to that data as it pleases—and
While we all seem to care deeply about our Fragmented approaches
to exert control when necessary.
privacy, we continue using social media, At the 2020 World Economic Forum in
websites and gadgets that don’t necessarily Davos, Switzerland, privacy and data
put our privacy first. A great example: In the ownership were key topics of conversa-
spring of 2019, millions of people uploaded tion, with some policymakers and CEOs
California 2020 This new law is known as California’s GDPR.
photos of their faces to an app that would advocating for a new paradigm in which
Consumer While there are still many outstanding
automatically age their appearance in the consumers would “own” their data. Others
Privacy Act, questions regarding the law’s interpretation
images. We learned later that the app, owned recommended a model in which consumer
California, USA and enforcement, Microsoft was one of the
by a Chinese company, could legally use that data would be treated as a public good. The
first tech companies to commit to extend-
database of biometric data as it pleased. A regulatory environment will only grow more
ing CCPA privacy protections to all of its US
majority of Americans believe their online fragmented this year. In the U.S., Califor-
customers.
and offline activities are being tracked and nia’s Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) came
monitored by companies and the govern- into effect in January of 2020 and governs
ment with some regularity, according to the how businesses collect and share personal
Pew Research Center. And yet most people information. Europe’s General Data Pro-
Personal Data TBD Whatever the outcome, India’s future privacy
aren’t confident that corporations are good tection Regulation (or GDPR) is now being
Protection Bill, law will impact 1.3 billion people. It carries
stewards of the data they collect. Pew’s enforced. Illinois also has a restrictive state
India stringent privacy requirements for compa-
research found that “79% of Americans say law on the books, preventing automatic face
nies, but some say it gives complete carte
they are not too or not at all confident that recognition and tagging, but if you cross the
blanche to India’s government in terms of
companies will admit mistakes and take border into Indiana, you'll find much more
access to data.
responsibility if they misuse or compromise lax restrictions on collecting and using an
personal information, and 69% report having adult’s data.
this same lack of confidence that firms will
273
Privacy cont.
THE IMPACT of Technology, Tencent, TikTok, Tinder, Tor,

Twitter, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Coast
Losing consumer trust is tantamount to
Guard, U.S. Computer Emergency Read-
losing their business. Once it’s gone, it can
iness Team, U.S. Cyber Command, U.S.
be difficult to earn it back.
Department of Defense, U.S. Department
WATCHLIST FOR SECTION of Energy, U.S. Department of Homeland
Security, U.S. Department of Justice, U.S.
Akamai Technologies, Alibaba, Amazon,
Marshals, U.S. National Security Agen-
American Civil Liberties Union, Anonymous,
cy, U.S. Supreme Court, Uber, Webroot,
Apple, Byte, California Consumer Privacy
WeChat, Weibo, WhatsApp, WikiLeaks, ZTE.
Act, Carbon Black, Check Point Software,
China’s Personal Information Security Spec-
ification, CIA, CrowdStrike, DARPA, Def Con,  TRENDS
Duo Security, Electronic Frontier Founda-
tion, EPIC, Ethereum, Facebook, Facebook The End of Biological Privacy
Messenger, FBI, Federal Trade Commission, Open source genealogy website GEDmatch
FireEye, Fortinet, GDPR, GitHub, Google, allows users to voluntarily share their genet-
Celebrities including Tyrese Gibson, Ludacris and Courtney Cox participated in the Grindr, HackerOne, Huawei, iARPA, IBM, Im- ic profiles for free, as a way to find relatives
FaceApp challenge. migration and Customs Enforcement, India’s and trace their genealogies. Law enforce-
Personal Data Protection Bill, Instagram, ment used GEDmatch to track down Joseph
Intel, International Consortium of Investiga- James DeAngelo, the suspected Golden
tive Journalists, JPMorgan Chase, Kasper- State Killer who over a period of years bru-
sky, Keybase, Krebs on Security, Match.com, tally raped 45 women and killed more than
McAfee, Microsoft, Oasis Labs, Ok Cupid, a dozen people. He himself never sent in a
Oracle, Oxford University, Palantir, Palo Alto biological sample, but someone connected
Networks, Princeton University, Qualcomm, to him did. If someone you know—or some-
Reddit, SAP, Sedicii, Senate Committee one who might in some way be connected to
on Homeland Security and Governmental you—submits their information to an open
Affairs, Signal, Slack, Sony, Splunk, State of source website, it can be traced back to you.
Illinois, Symantec, Technion Israel Institute

Public Entities Selling the security vulnerability was discovered, worldwide, journalists have relied on closed, to capitalize on this, with ephemeral photos
Private Data but new loopholes were found yet again last encrypted messaging networks like Key- and video messages that only last 24 hours.
year. As connected devices become more base and Signal to send secure messages. Now WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger and
In the U.S., a number of DMV’s—departments
popular and ubiquitous, companies will However, many news organizations do not Slack are implementing “vanishing” messag-
of motor vehicles—are selling the personal
have to redouble their efforts to secure our have guidelines on how these networks can ing options to improve user privacy. In the
data of drivers to third parties, including
devices. and should be used at work. For example, U.K., the conservative Tory party recently
insurance companies, private investigators,
a company may determine that emails are switched to using Signal, a privacy-focused
vehicle manufacturers, and prospective
Tech Workers Fighting the intellectual property of the organiza- open-source alternative to WhatsApp. With
employers. In 2019, Oregon’s DMV earned
for Privacy tion and are subject to professional codes regulations like GDPR and California’s new-
$11.5 million, while California’s DMV report-
of conduct; what about messages sent est privacy law, vanishing messages may
edly earned $51 million. The State of New In 2018, when staff at Google, Microsoft and
through encrypted networks? As hacks be- become the norm.
York sells license and vehicle information Amazon discovered their companies were
come more pervasive, private networks will
and earns roughly $2.2 million a year via engaged in programs to aid U.S. govern-
ment agencies with surveillance, they
continue to be popular in 2020. This could Digital Eavesdropping Rights
pay-per-search as well as the sale of re-
be problematic for ISPs: In the wake of net
cords. States are also beginning to update published open letters, staged walkouts As we connect more and more devices to
neutrality rollbacks in the U.S., clever users
their laws governing how personal data and protests, and formally organized into the Internet of Things—fitness trackers, mo-
could engage a distributed browser system
can be used. For example, Vermont in 2018 activist groups. As data collection and A.I. bile phones, cars, coffee makers—those de-
to prevent an ISP from throttling certain
passed a law that requires data brokers to technology becomes more available, Home- vices are having extended interactions with
sites or users.
disclose which data are being collected and land Security, Immigration and Customs each other and with the companies that
to allow people to opt out. Enforcement (otherwise known as ICE) and make them. Our devices aren’t just talking to
the Pentagon will rely more heavily on Sili-
Vanishing Messages us anymore. They’re learning about us, and
Connected Device Security con Valley tech giants for support. This isn’t “This tape will self-destruct in five sec- starting to communicate with each other
Loopholes sitting well with workers. In 2019, Google onds.” Mission Impossible made vanishing about us. Should consumers be given the
fired five employees who were engaged in messages famous in the late ‘60s, but this right to eavesdrop on what their own devic-
Throughout 2018, researchers showed how technology is no longer just for secret es are saying, and who else is listening in?
labor organizing.
Amazon’s Alexa and Google Home devices agents. On a consumer level, more and more News and entertainment companies must
could be used to eavesdrop on users by apps give individuals the choice to have determine whether those devices, working
Encrypted Messaging Networks
employing techniques similar to conven- the messages they send be automatically as intermediaries, cross any ethical lines
tional phishing attacks. Both Google and In response to social media hacks and gov-
deleted after a set period of time. Snap was when consumer data changes hands. A de-
Amazon deployed countermeasures once ernment-sponsored surveillance programs
one of the earliest social media companies bate over consumer rights and transparency
275
Privacy cont.
is already underway in Washington, D.C., Digital Self-Incrimination

and the outcome could affect those mone-
Whether it’s a connected fitness device, a
tizing content via the internet of things.
smart earphone, or a pair of smart glasses,
consumers will find themselves continuous-
Data Ownership ly being monitored by third parties. Our legal
Who, exactly, owns our data is a topic of system isn’t keeping pace with technology,
great concern worldwide. The reason: de- so we lack norms, standards and case law
fining ownership would have huge ramifi- on how data collected from and produced by
cations for what can be done with our data, our wearables can be used. To date, fitness
who could gain access to it and how it could devices, pacemakers, and smart watch-
be monetized. In a legal sense, data own- es have been used as evidence in police
ership has typically referred to intellectual investigation and criminal trials. In the U.S.,
property (IP) or copyright data. However, judges get to decide whether to allow data
the rise of wearable smart devices and the from wearable devices—or whether indi-
internet of things boosted awareness about viduals still have a reasonable expectation
how large companies collect and monetize of privacy if they’ve been actively sharing
data related to our behavior, health statis- their fitness stats in the cloud or with third
tics, and online activity. You do not own the parties.
site analytics that these tech giants make
available to you, and you don’t own any mes- Differential Privacy
sages sent on a company email server or in
Berkeley-based Oasis Labs develops cryp-
your Slack channel. In a world where every
tographic techniques that allow companies
Tinder began offering photo verification in January 2020 as a way to curb catfishing. device is smart and connected, surveillance
to use personal data in their algorithms
is constant and ownership is unclear.
without seeing our individual data points.
This is an example of differential privacy, a
mathematical concept that has been around
for over a decade. Differential privacy is

achieved by strategically introducing ran- Defining Online Harassment mation to the press, to hackers and to other “State Secrets: How an Avalanche of Media
dom noise into the dataset. It is most useful governments. While many people seem Leaks Is Harming National Security” and
The #MeToo movement brought to light
when answering simple (low-sensitivity) eager to find and share information—not ev- cited 125 stories with leaked information
thousands of stories of sexual harassment
queries. Companies like Apple and Google eryone agrees on what should be published, that the committee considered damaging
and resulted in the takedown of several
now use the technique as a way to analyze and by whom. In January 2020, a massive to national security. Media organizations
high-profile men. It’s also sparked a global
aggregate data without compromising user leak involving more than 700,000 docu- like the New York Times and the Guardian
conversation about how we treat each
privacy. It’s good for finding out traffic pat- ments implicated one of Africa’s wealthiest have secure sections on their websites
other in person and online. A shared Google
terns in Google Maps, determining the most people, Isabel dos Santos, in a massive where people can safely upload sensitive
document, dubbed “The Shitty Media Men
popular emoji for iPhone users, and dis- scheme of fraud and money laundering. documents to journalists, and now political
List,” at one point circulated among female
covering ride sharing trends across Uber’s Before publishing it, the International Con- action groups and activists are seeking
journalists, who entered the details of men
global network—while keeping individual sortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) confidential document leaks, too. You can
who had allegedly sexually harassed women
user behavior anonymous. The U.S. Census launched a sweeping investigation into dos expect to see more coordinated efforts to
in the real world. When the list was leaked,
Bureau will be using differential privacy in Santos, the billionaire former first daughter leak—and to securely receive leaked data—in
some pointed the finger at the women,
the 2020 Population Census. A team of Am- of Angola. Some 370 journalists from 76 2020 and beyond.
arguing that they were committing acts of
azon researchers recently proposed using countries collaborated on the investigation.
online harassment simply by contributing to
differential privacy as a way to anonymize
it. It’s apparent that we don't yet have clear
She has since been accused of embezzle- Promoting Anonymity
customer-supplied data. Apple set itself ment, influence peddling, harmful man-
definitions for what constitutes harass- In the years since President Donald Trump
apart from its competitors by integrating agement, forgery of documents and other
ment in the digital realm and especially as was elected, the number of anonymous
differential privacy into its Safari browser, so-called “economic crimes” by Angola’s top
it relates to privacy. In the years ahead, we opinion pieces, sources and leaks rose
and Google uses its own differential privacy prosecutor. Previously, the ICIJ spent a year
will continue to wrestle with what behavior dramatically compared to previous admin-
tool called RAPPOR as people search online. reporting on a massive cache of 11.5 million
is acceptable in virtual gaming worlds, in istrations. Notably, the New York Times
It is important to remember this method is leaked records they had received from a
social media, in our mobile exchanges and published a rare and scathing anonymous
still evolving. Depending on applications and little-known law firm in Panama. These
in general digital discourse. Op-Ed essay entitled “I Am Part of the Re-
data sets, differential privacy is harder to “Panama Papers” showed the offshore
sistance Inside the Trump Administration.”
maintain when variables are correlated. And holdings of 140 politicians from around the
at the moment, there is scant regulatory
Safeguarding and Verifying world, 12 current and former world leaders,
For his part, President Trump in December
Leaked Data 2019 retweeted a post that included the
guidance for use of the approach in the tech and more. In the summer of 2017, the Senate
full name of the anonymous whistleblower
industry. Many social movements worldwide have Committee on Homeland Security and
whose complaint led to his impeachment
encouraged the leaking of sensitive infor- Governmental Affairs issued a report titled
by the House of Representatives. The
277
Privacy cont.
world needs anonymity, because it enables community standards to limit hate speech. Data Retention Policies cure their internet of things environment will
whistleblowers to come forward and shields Reddit has banned groups like r/incels for find themselves dealing with vast recalls,
A data retention policy is a formalized
those who otherwise might be persecuted violating the site’s community standards remediation and lawsuits. A fragmented
protocol for retaining information, and his-
for their beliefs. Digital anonymity allows us (though there is plenty of awful content still regulatory landscape promises significant
torically companies have enacted them for
to discreetly band together in times of need, to be found on the rest of the site). And yet, headaches for compliance officers and risk
regulatory compliance. Now that companies
whether that’s to raise money for a good neo-Nazi site Daily Stormer resurfaced in managers, who must ensure current policies
regularly use consumer and other sources
cause or to push back against injustices. February 2018 after being effectively shut and procedures for governments, compa-
of data, they are building more protective
But promoting and preserving anonymity down by their domain host. State-spon- nies, nonprofits and news organizations.
policies. Regulatory frameworks such as
will prove challenging as our digital pub- sored trolling is most often linked to Russia
the General Data Protection Regulation and
lishing systems grow more complex and but according to research from Oxford
the California Consumer Privacy Act both
Revenge Porn
decentralized. University, 28 countries and counting have
compel companies to update their policies. Revenge porn is the practice of uploading
cyber troops of humans and bots for the
an individual's intimate, typically explicit
Trolls purpose of manipulating public opinion
on social media. (For further reading, we
Compliance Challenges and photographs or videos without their knowl-
Trolling is a specific type of cyber-bully- Unrealistic Budgets edge or permission, as an act of vengeance.
recommend accessing Oxford’s full report
ing that often involves spamming, hate- As of publication, 46 states and the District
“Troops, Trolls, and Troublemakers.”) The historical tension between security
speech, doxxing attacks, and other forms of Columbia now have revenge porn laws
and privacy will unleash new challenges
of harassment. Early in 2019, trolls found a in the U.S., but a national law could soon
video of newly-elected U.S. Rep. Alexandria Verification in the near future. Consumers shed more
arrive. The issue: the constitutionality of
data each day, and as more connected
Ocasio-Cortez that was taken when she In an era of deepfakes and digital mistrust, revenge porn on First Amendment grounds.
devices enter the marketplace, the volume
was a college student in 2010. They edited a some networks are building new tools to The U.S. Constitution protects freedom
of available data will balloon. Yet those
short clip to make her look provocative, and verify real people. For example, dating app of speech, even when it is offensive. But
organizations creating devices and manag-
then helped it go viral. (In reality, the video Tinder introduced a new Photo Verification obscenity isn’t covered, and neither is the
ing consumer data aren’t planning for future
showed her and a friend recreating the feature in January 2020 that compares a se- disclosure of private information. We’ve
scenarios. Managers must develop and
benign dance sequence from The Breakfast ries of real-time selfies to a cache of existing seen many documented cases of revenge
continually update their security policies—
Club movie.) Controlling trolls online has profile photos using both A.I. and humans. porn: In 2018, several Los Angeles Police
and make the details transparent. Most
forced many of us—as well as media out- Those who pass the test receive a blue check Department officers were under investi-
organizations aren’t devoting enough budget
lets—to take a position on the line between mark verifying that the user is a real person. gation for allegedly distributing explicit
to securing their data and devices. Those
freedom of speech and censorship. Twitter, Who and what is real online is becoming images of one of their female colleagues—
that haven’t carved out enough budget to se-
Facebook, and Instagram updated their harder to determine, which is why authentic- her ex-boyfriend had taken photos without
ity is an important trend going forward.
her knowledge and then shared them in calls, gather license plate information and private information is weaponized against
revenge after they broke up. Unfortunate- determine whether someone is carrying us, and he called for comprehensive privacy
ly, revenge porn is also regularly posted a weapon. In the U.S., drones are regular- laws in the U.S., publicly shaming Facebook
online to dedicated websites. Staff within ly used by federal, state and local public and Google in the process. IBM CEO Ginni
the U.S. Senate, the U.S. Navy, and even safety agencies including the FBI, ICE, Rometty followed by criticizing the other
President Donald Trump’s Executive Office U.S. Marshals and Coast Guard. Wide-area big tech companies for abusing user data,
have accessed revenge porn websites. In motion imagery technology allows police to and similarly called for action. It would be
the U.S., there is no national law banning surreptitiously track any person or vehicle a mistake to think that IBM and Apple are
revenge porn, but that could change this without being seen. Drones will soon enable leaving fully up to lawmakers the work of
year. The U.S. Supreme Court may decide the mass tracking of people at concerts, crafting data privacy regulations. They’ll
to take up a case involving a woman who, vehicles on the highway, amusement park offer industry-leading advice on what ought
after learning that her fiancée had an affair, attendees—the sorts of crowded public to be done next, which would likely put their
sent a four-page letter to family and friends settings we may already expect to be under competitors at a big disadvantage.
detailing text messages and explicit photos some form of surveillance by law enforce-
of the mistress. She was charged with a ment. (See also: Drones Section.)
felony for violating Illinois’s strict revenge
porn law, and she later argued that the law Influencing Future Privacy Laws
was unconstitutional.
In September 2018, Facebook revealed that
a breach had affected more than 30 million
Drone Surveillance people’s user information, while a month
Drones now come in all shapes and sizes, later Google reported that it discovered a
and they can be used in a variety of settings glitch in its now-retired Google+ network
for surveillance. Advanced camera tech- that could have exposed the private data
nology can capture photos and video from of 500,000 users. Perhaps anticipating a
1,000 feet away, while machine learning wave of regulatory proposals, some of the
software can remotely identify who we are big tech giants have made privacy a core
and lock on to and follow our bodies as we message to both consumers and lawmak-
move around—all without our knowledge. ers. In October, Apple CEO Tim Cook warned
They can also intercept mobile phone of a “data-industrial complex” in which
279
25 Security
284 Zero-Day Exploits 287 Ransomware-as-a-Service
on the Rise
287 Decentralized Hacktivists
284 Zero-Knowledge
287 Targeted Attacks on
Proofs Go Commercial
Voice Interfaces
284 Gaining Access
287 Weird Glitches
to Backdoors
285 Remote Kill Switches
Open Source App
287
Vulnerabilities
285 Insecure Supply Chains
288 Global Cybersecurity
285 Data Manipulation Pacts
Becomes the
Greater Threat
288 Proliferation of Darknets
Consumer Device
285 288 Bounty Programs
Targeting 288 Magnetic Tape
Supply Shortages
285 Cyber Risk Insurance
285 A.I.-Powered Automated
289 Biometric Malware
Hacking Systems 289 State-Sponsored
Security Breaches
286 Hijacking Internet Traffic
286 DDoS Attacks on the Rise
Critical Infrastructure
289
Targets
Third-Party Verified
286 289 Offensive Government
Identities
Hacking
281
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Security
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT hands. That same month, Ohio govern-

ment employees accidentally sent 9,000
From ransomware attacks that target-
tax forms with personal information to the
ed municipalities, to data breaches that
wrong people. Too often, breaches are the
exposed the personal details of hundreds
result of employee sloppiness. A miscon-
of millions of people, to supply chain at-
figured government database in Ecuador
tacks that crippled global trade, malicious
containing the private data of the country’s
hacking was on the rise in 2019. You can
citizens—about 20 million people in total—
expect to see a continual stream of attacks
was left completely accessible to the public
throughout 2020.
on the internet.
WHY IT MATTERS
Hackers can gain access to critical systems
The cost of data breaches is significant.
and data through unsecured databases left
According to IBM’s annual Cost of a Data
open on the internet, out of date firmware
Breach study, in 2019 the average breach
and software patches, bugs in operating
costs an organization $3.92 million, up 12%
systems and software and vulnerable
from five years ago. Notification and com-
utilities—in addition to using methods that
ForAllSecure, a Pittsburgh-based software company, won DARPA’s 2016 Cyber Grand Chal- pliance, expenses that stem from forensic
exploit human vulnerabilities like weak
lenge, the world’s first all-machine cyber hacking tournament. (Photo courtesy of DARPA.) investigations, systems repairs and the
passwords. Sometimes accidents happen:
inevitable lawsuits all contribute to the cost,
In February 2019, a USB drive containing
and fewer than half of all organizations are
the tax information for 42,000 Salt Lake
equipped to prevent against and properly
Community College students fell out of an
and efficiently respond to a cyber attack.
envelope and made its way into malicious

 DEEPER DIVE
A very brief list of 2019 glitches, hacks, leaks, malware attacks, ransomware attacks, backdoor attacks and data breaches.
January May August December

• Glitch: A Fortnight player discovered an iOS • Ransomware: The city of Baltimore was • Glitch: The popular dating app Grindr was • Ransomware: The city of New Orleans was
bug: A teenager added a friend to a group attacked with ransomware that was so discovered to have a security flaw that hit with a cyberattack which crippled its
call, and while that friend didn’t pick up he powerful it crippled much of the city's dig- could expose the location of a user in digital systems.
was able to listen in on the conversations ital infrastructure. It took several months real-time. • Malware: Chinese hackers used sophisti-
happening where the iPhone was located. before the city was mobilized to act, and • Leak: A biometric database used by the cated malware to take down a Cambodian
even then some billing systems weren’t fully
• Ransomware attack: The City of Del Rio U.K. Metropolitan Police accidentally government agency.
restored.
(Texas) was attacked with ransomware, leaked millions of records.
taking many of its digital systems offline. • Hack: Someone broke into GitHub reposi- • Ransomware: Wilmer, Texas, a smaller THE IMPACT
tories, removed source code and demand-
• Backdoor attack: BlackMediaGames had town outside of Dallas, was among 22 small
ed a ransom. In January 2020, the City of Las Vegas was
the personal data of 7.6 million users stolen cities across Texas that came under attack,
attacked, a sign that attacks are continuing.
via multiple backdoors. • Data breach: First American Financial prompting a widening F.B.I. inquiry and a
Corp., a real estate company, accidentally statewide disaster response-style mobili- WATCHLIST FOR SECTION
February
leaked hundreds of millions of insurance zation from the National Guard.
• Ransomware attack: Cabrini Hospital in Akamai Technologies, Amazon, Anonymous,
documents with bank account information,
Malvern, Australia had 15,000 patient files September Apple, Carbon Black, Check Point Software,
mortgage and tax records and other private
remotely locked. • Leak: A misconfigured database belonging CIA, CrowdStrike, DARPA, Def Con, Duo Se-
information.
to the government of Ecuador leaked the curity, Ethereum, FBI, FireEye, Fortinet, Fu-
March June personal data of 20 million citizens. jifilm Holdings, GitHub, Google, HackerOne,
• Hack: Someone breached the tornado • Ransomware: Hackers crippled more than Huawei, iARPA, IBM Intel, In-Q-Tel, JPMor-
warning systems in two Texas towns and October
40 U.S. municipalities over the summer— gan Chase, Kaspersky, Krebs on Securi-
set off 30 false alarms. including Albany, New York and Laredo, • Data breach: UniCredit, an Italian bank, ty, McAfee, Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto
• Data breach: Facebook announced that Texas, and small towns like Lake City, disclosed that it exposed the personal Networks, Princeton University, Qualcomm,
hundreds of millions of users might have Florida. information of three million customers. SAP, Sedicii, Sony, Splunk, Symantec,
had their passwords stolen because the • Glitch: An Israeli cybersecurity firm was Technion Israel Institute of Technology, Tor,
• Data breach: The Nova Scotia Health Au-
company had mistakenly stored the pass- accused of selling spyware that exploited a U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team,
thority discovered that 3,000 patients had
words in a readable, plain text format. vulnerability in WhatsApp. U.S. Cyber Command, U.S. Department of
their personal health information stolen.
Defense, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S.
April July November
Department of Justice, U.S. National Secu-
• Data breach: Evite announced that some of • Data breach: Capital One disclosed a • Data breach: Facebook inadvertently gave rity Agency, Uber, Webroot, WikiLeaks, ZTE,
its users’ personal data had been harvested massive data breach involving 100 million 100 developers access to private user data. municipalities, counties and civil agencies
and sold on the Dark Web. customers in the U.S. and six million in everywhere and the governments of Russia,
• Hack: Macy’s was involved in a week-long
• Data breach: Facebook announced that Canada. attack and had customers’ credit card China, Singapore, North Korea, Ukraine,
540 million records were exposed on two information stolen. Israel, United States, Iran and the U.K.
• Hack: A hacker broke into the Los Angeles
AWS servers, and that the data had been Police Department and reportedly stole • Hack: Hours after the new Disney+ service
collected by two third-party companies. personal information for 2,500 recruits, launched, hackers began offering accounts
trainees and officers. on the Dark Web.
283
Security cont.
 TRENDS with information identifying certain exploits are working on a zero-knowledge proof that the FBI already had the tools necessary to
being sold for as much as $500,000. Tools would let inspectors identify something as break into the phones. The incident was
Zero-Day Exploits on the Rise to exploit vulnerabilities will be in greater a nuclear weapon without requiring them to reminiscent of another shooting that pitted
demand in the near future. take it apart, which risks spreading informa- the FBI and Apple against each other. In the
A zero-day vulnerability is a flaw within a
tion about how to build one. wake of the deadly San Bernardino attack
hardware or software system that devel-
Zero-Knowledge Proofs Go in December 2015, the FBI and Apple found
opers didn’t discover during the testing
Commercial Gaining Access to Backdoors themselves debating so-called “backdoors”
process. That vulnerability can be exploited
in public. The FBI demanded that Apple
by malware to cause all sorts of problems. With all of the hacking scandals that have While they sound malicious, backdoors—
unlock the assailant’s phone, and Apple
Zero-days are dangerous, prized vulner- plagued us in the past several years, we will purposely programmed entry points to ac-
refused, arguing that creating a software
abilities, and exploiting them is a favorite see an increase in popularity of something cess the inner workings of an app, operating
update to allow a backdoor would endanger
activity of malicious hackers. Once the flaw called “zero-knowledge proofs,” which allow system, device, or network, meant for inter-
the privacy of all iPhone users. It’s a debate
is revealed, programmers have “zero days” to one side to verify data without conveying nal usage or in cases of extreme extenuat-
that was never settled—and we’ll likely see
do anything about it. In January 2020, a Mi- any additional information (such as how or ing circumstances—aren’t necessarily bad.
more cases pitting government agencies
crosoft zero-day was discovered, involving why something is true). It’s a mind-bending Often, developers intentionally install them
against big tech companies in the years to
Internet Explorer, that would allow someone approach to security, allowing you to verify into firmware so that manufacturers can
come. Given the rise of zero-day exploits,
to gain remote access to a computer. Also in your identity without revealing who you safely upgrade our devices and operating
we should question whether backdoors are
January, Chinese hackers used a zero-day in actually are. In essence, this eliminates the systems. But backdoors can also be used
the best way forward. Government offi-
the Trend Micro OfficeScan antivirus system need for a company to store private identity surreptitiously to access everything from
cials worldwide have been advocating for
used by Mitsubishi Electric to gain access to data during the verification process. Ze- our webcams to our personal data. Back-
a set of “golden keys,” which would allow
the company’s network. The Italian spyware ro-knowledge proofs aren’t new, but they’re doors have been a recurring issue for Apple,
law enforcement to bypass digital security
maker Hacking Team (HT) helped bring ze- becoming more popular as a method to pro- which has had a history of disagreeing with
measures using backdoors. But even with-
ro-days into the spotlight when it was found tect our credit cards and online identities. the U.S. Department of Justice over unlock-
out public agreement, some agencies may
selling commercial hacking software to law JPMorgan Chase is using zero-knowledge ing iPhones. In 2019, after a deadly shooting
find their way into our machines. In 2013,
enforcement agencies in countries all over proofs for its enterprise blockchain system, involving Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani at
the U.S. National Security Agency made a
the world. Data leaked from HT, along with a while cryptocurrency startup Ethereum the Naval Air Station in Pensacola, Florida,
deal with security company RSA to include a
massive dump of 400 gigabytes of inter- uses zero-knowledge for authentication. U.S. Attorney General William Barr asked
flawed algorithm in their product, effective-
nal emails, revealed a number of zero-day Irish startup Sedicii now has zero-proof Apple to help unlock two iPhones that were
ly giving the NSA a backdoor into various
exploits. The HT breach helped to shine a software in the marketplace, and research- used by the gunman. Apple refused, and the
systems. The challenge is that the simple
light on a growing zero-day marketplace, ers at Microsoft and Princeton University government pressed further—but ultimately,

act of creating a backdoor would leave ordi- Insecure Supply Chains access and then manipulate data for long- begin to enter the marketplace. Rather than
nary people vulnerable to everyday attacks term damage. The implications are more simply covering the theft of basic infor-
Security expert Bruce Schneier has been
by a wide swath of malicious actors. concerning than you might realize at first: If mation, insurers will also offer protection
warning of an ongoing problem: The supply
a company’s data integrity comes into ques- against damage to reputation, the loss
chain is insecure. Consumers aren’t willing
Remote Kill Switches to pay for security features or upgrades,
tion, it could lose customers and partners of operational capacity, and the costs for
quickly. Alternatively, if companies don’t system upgrades, as well as liabilities due
As our technology becomes more im- while product manufacturers aren’t as strict
realize their data has been compromised, as the result of lawsuits. As organizations
mersive, we’ll have an increased need for as they could be in safeguarding the integ-
hackers could alter that data gradually to develop their FY 2020-2021 budgets, they
remote kill switches. Kill switches, found on rity of every single component that goes
undermine the company or its users in sub- should investigate cyber risk insurance.
smartphones and connected devices, will into the systems we use. It’s been cheaper
tle, pernicious ways over extended periods
soon come in handy for the enterprise and to fix hacks after they happen and to ask
for government agencies. Uber developed for forgiveness, rather than to address the
of time. A.I.-Powered Automated
its own software program called Ripley that problem in advance. But as hackers grow Hacking Systems
could be activated by staff in San Francisco, more sophisticated and as more of our
Consumer Device Targeting Thanks to advancements in A.I., one of the
should any of its overseas offices be raided appliances, systems and databases are With the proliferation of smart devices— big trends in security is automated hack-
by police. It also deployed uLocker, a remote connected, we ought to think about the connected speakers, mirrors, and fitness ing—in short, software that’s built to out-
kill switch that could lock all company de- downstream implications of insecure supply gadgets—hackers have a wellspring of new hack the human hackers. The Pentagon’s
vices, including laptops and phones. On the chains in our infrastructure, hospitals, targets in 2020. Attackers might hijack your research agency DARPA launched a Cyber
consumer side, both Apple and Android now power grids—even our kitchens. Some smart TV for ransom on the day before a big Grand Challenge project in 2016, with a mis-
allow users to remotely wipe all the infor- hope that wider adoption of blockchain and televised event (national elections, Eurovi- sion to design computer systems capable of
mation on their phones and tablets using a distributed ledger technology will help solve sion, the Super Bowl) and refuse to unlock beating hackers at their own game. DARPA
web interface. The benefit would come with these problems, but as of now, there aren’t it until you’ve paid a fee. Or they could take wanted to show that smarter automated
a cost, however. Kill switches would mean scalable solutions. control of your fitness device and hold years systems could respond and develop fixes far
that nobody could gain access to what was of personal workout data and in-app mile- faster than a human—in just a few seconds.
inside a lost or stolen phone—not even law Data Manipulation Becomes The stones and achievements for ransom. A white hat hacker might spend months
enforcement. Greater Threat or years to spot and fix critical vulnerabil-
Cyber Risk Insurance ities, but the machine that won the Grand
Rather than malicious actors simply
Challenge proved its might in just a fraction
stealing data, in 2020 you can expect to New forms of insurance, intended to help
of the time. The winner became the first
see new kinds of attacks, in which hackers businesses protect against hackers, will
non-human entity to earn DEF CON’s black
285
Security cont.
badge, which is the hacking community’s grand finales or premieres of series, and
equivalent of an Oscar. Very soon, malicious more.
actors will create autonomous systems
capable of automatically learning new DDoS Attacks on the Rise
environments, exposing vulnerabilities and
A Distributed Denial of Service Attack
flaws, and then exploiting them for gain—or
(DDoS) attack happens when a hacker
any other objective, which could simply be
sends so many requests to machines that
generalized mayhem.
the entire network goes down. In the past
several years, the number of DDoS attacks
Hijacking Internet Traffic have spiked, increasing in both breadth and
The protocols underpinning the web were duration. A massive DDoS attack in 2016
written long before we had connected took down Dyn, a major internet provider for
microwaves and billions of daily users. In companies that included AirBnB, Netflix,
November 2018, hackers created a mas- PayPal, Visa, Amazon, The New York Times,
sive internet traffic diversion, rerouting Reddit, and GitHub. All of them went offline
data through China, Nigeria and Russia. It for a day. While daylong or multi-day attacks
disrupted Google, taking its business tools aren’t as common as their shorter cousins,
offline, slowing down search and making which tend to last a few hours, they are on
The City of Baltimore struggled to resolve a ransomware attack that stretched on for its cloud unreachable. It was an example of the rise. To date, half of the world’s DDoS
several weeks. Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) hijacking attacks have originated in China. Hackers
and while in this case the error exploited are beginning to use more sophisticated
was related to an outdated Nigerian ISP, the tools, which means that future attacks will
incident points to a vulnerability in our web be larger in scope and could achieve greater
infrastructure. We anticipate new cases of impact.
internet traffic hijacking in 2020, especially
during the numerous high-profile stream- Third-Party Verified Identities
ing events planned for the year ahead: big
In the U.S., citizens must continually hand
sports events (World Series, Super Bowl,
over their social security numbers as a
Olympics), the U.S. election in November,

means of identity authentication. But in the emergence of the blockchain and crypto- banks. Hacktivist organizations, including Weird Glitches
wake of the massive Equifax data breach, currencies have transformed ransomware Anonymous, WikiLeaks and DC Leaks, see
Glitches are so common now they don’t al-
it has become clear that our social security into a lucrative business. In the spring of themselves as durable forces of change.
ways make the news. Glitches don’t have an
numbers—a single identifier used in every- 2019, Baltimore became the latest city to Glamorized by the TV show "Mr. Robot,"
immediate, obvious cause but nonetheless
thing from our bank accounts to our health have some of its critical services held for hacktivism is on the rise—and, given heated
can cause frustrating problems. From cus-
insurance profiles, and even shared with ransom. Since it hadn’t prepared in advance political tensions during a year in which
toms and border protection terminals going
university registrars—isn’t secure. Social for such a scenario, it took several months many elections are being held, we’ll likely
dark to technical malfunctions on assembly
security numbers were never intended to for the systems to come back online. Res- see more of these operations. Hacktivists
lines, glitches affect every industry. And
be used as general-purpose passwords. idents couldn’t pay water bills for months, will use their skills to help shape local, state,
now, they’re popping up in our homes, too.
We’ll see the emergence of third-party, email their city representatives, or sched- national and international politics, conver-
In the summer of 2019, at-home exercise
non-governmental providers of identity ver- ule trash pickups, among other things. sations, and business practices.
platform Peloton pushed several updates
ification. One example that’s already in the Ransomware attacks target mostly cities,
to its smart stationary bike that resulted
marketplace is CLEAR, the trusted traveler financial services and healthcare organiza- Targeted Attacks on Voice in weird closed captioning and exercise
program that lets verified customers get tions because their data and services are so Interfaces classes that would suddenly drop out—even
through airport security faster. valuable. Simply backing up your organiza-
Now that Alexa, Siri, and Google Assistant with a strong internet connection. With so
tion’s data probably won’t be enough of a
have moved from the fringe to the main- many people working on complex systems,
Ransomware-as-a-Service failsafe going forward. Researchers have
stream, we can expect to see targeted errors no one planned for are causing major
already found “doxware” floating around the
Last year, ransomware devastated compa- attacks of these popular voice interfaces. In headaches. Glitches often have to do with
internet—in those cases hackers, rather
nies and even entire cities. Entertainment 2018, professors at Technion Israel Institute degraded network connectivity or a mis-
than simply holding your data hostage until
and news media organizations could be of Technology and researchers at McAfee calculation of the bandwidth needed. But
you pay up, threaten to publish it to the web
next. In a ransomware attack, hackers independently found flaws in Microsoft’s a lot of times, glitches result from newer
for everyone to see.
deploy malicious tools to hijack data, Cortana voice assistant. When security technologies that can break in unexpected
effectively locking administrators and users testing firm Checkmarx conducted pen- ways.
out of systems and devices, until a fee is Decentralized Hacktivists etration testing on Alexa, it inadvertently
paid. Since cash and online bank transfers Hackers-turned-activists have had a busy allowed potential hackers to make Echo Open Source App Vulnerabilities
are easy to track, the currency of choice is few years, hacking in support of causes listen continuously, rather than only when
Companies that use open source tools will
now bitcoin, which is transferred through an they believe in. They launched DDoS attacks prompted by a user. (Amazon fixed the vul-
need to perform daily, rather than occasion-
encrypted system and can’t be traced. The against governments, corporations and nerability as soon as it was notified.)
al, security checks this year. Early in 2019,
287
Security cont.
the EU offered $1 million in bug bounties— Russia, China, North Korea, Israel and the and investigative journalists hunting down base, Shopify and GitHub. In 2019, Google
rewards for hackers that identify vulner- United States. leads. As cryptocurrencies gain popularity, paid 461 different security researchers $6.5
abilities and report them to the affected we’re likely to see more activity in darknets. million for bug bounties.
organization—for open source software. Proliferation of Darknets Activists with legitimate concerns will advo-
Why? OpenSSL bugs like Heartbleed caught
Many people confuse the deep web—hid-
cate for new layers of protection, while law Magnetic Tape Supply Shortages
the government’s attention. In 2017, a data enforcement will receive training on how to
den parts of the internet that aren’t usually It’s odd to think that in 2020 the world still
scientist revealed a new kind of malware navigate the dark web. For government and
indexed by search engines—with darknets, relies on magnetic tape—those clunky old
capable of infecting an open A.I. system law enforcement, the challenge of training
which are niche spaces promising anonym- cartridges that were used decades ago to
like OpenAI Gym, which is Elon Musk’s is staying current—darkets are continuously
ity, often for illegal activities. People go store data. And yet that’s still the preferred
open-source toolkit for machine learning changing, which means that training can
there to sell and buy drugs, guns, ammuni- method of backup for many companies
algorithms. It’s just one example of a boom- quickly become outdated. Also problematic:
tion, security exploits (malware, ransom- needing to safeguard their most precious
ing market for malicious tools that exploit Those who spend the most time on darknets
ware) and your hacked data (passwords, information. Our critical financial data and
vulnerabilities in open source applications are typically also the ones building them.
credit card numbers and more). Crypto- scientific records may be kept on cloud
and software. As the A.I. ecosystem grows
currencies have fueled activity in these servers at Microsoft, Amazon and Google,
to incorporate more open source code and
dark corners of the internet, since they’re Bounty Programs but duplicate copies are often backed up to
community-built tools, it will be especially
encrypted and make tracking transactions The past several years have been dramat- tape. The problem is that consolidation has
important to spot problems in advance.
nearly impossible. You can’t just hop on to a ically successful for hackers. Security left us with just two companies—Sony and
darknet and find what you need the way you expert Brian Krebs says that the “market for Fujifilm Holdings—who still manufacture
Global Cybersecurity Pacts might Google your high school sweetheart. finding, stockpiling and hoarding (keeping tape. In May 2019 the companies became
Late in 2018, more than 200 companies (in- To access the hidden crime bazaars, you secret) software flaws is expanding rapidly,” embroiled in a patent lawsuit in which
cluding Microsoft, Google and Facebook) need special software, such as Tor or Freen- and he went so far as to advocate for a Fujifilm accused Sony of infringement. Fu-
and 50 countries signed an international et, you need to know where you’re headed, compulsory bounty program. In response, jifilm won, and the court banned Sony from
agreement on cybersecurity principles to and you do need a bit of technical knowl- a number of white hat (read: good hacker) importing media tape. The case was settled
end malicious cyber activities in peace- edge. It isn’t illegal to take a walk through bug bounty programs are becoming popular. in the fall, but it caused widespread short-
time. While non-binding, the agreement dark marketplaces, and there’s plenty of In some cases, businesses solicit friendly ages of tapes. Tape isn’t a big business unit
attempts to develop norms and standards good activity that takes place there: whis- hackers for paid work through platforms like within these otherwise sprawling compa-
for how countries behave in cyberspace. tleblowers hoping to shine a light on wrong- HackerOne, which is being used by the U.S. nies, and potential shortages could lead to
Noticeably absent from the list of signers: doing, political dissidents looking for asylum Department of Defense, Wordpress, Coin- problems down the road for the world’s data

archives, especially given that the amount geting thousands of people, from defense and U.K. cities. Many cities lack the resourc- Offensive Government Hacking
of critical data created every year increases contractors at Lockheed Martin and Ray- es to repair roads and subways and they are
Last year marked the tenth anniversary of
significantly. theon, to Ukrainian lawmakers, to the Pope woefully behind in building cybersecurity
the U.S. and Israel joining forces to deploy a
and his executive team. Russia is home to programs to prevent attacks. Every year,
devastating worm known as Stuxnet, which
Biometric Malware some of the world’s most gifted and prolific cybercriminals target critical infrastructure
took down parts of Iran’s covert nuclear
hackers. Elite hackers in China spent 2018 and facilities around the world and threaten
Kaspersky researchers found that in the weapons program. Rather than simply pur-
carrying out some of the biggest and most to potentially disable dams, power plants
third quarter of 2019 alone, about 33% of suing cyber deterrence, governments are
damaging breaches in history, including and traffic lights. In 2018, it was publicly
the systems that use and store biometric going on the offensive. Singapore’s Ministry
attacks on U.S. Navy contractors and Mar- acknowledged that Russia targeted critical
data were targeted by malware attacks. of Defense is hiring white hat hackers and
riott. They haven’t just been hunting down infrastructure sectors in the U.S., includ-
Biometric data aren’t stored as securely as security experts to look for critical vulner-
individual people or companies—they’re ing the power grid—though efforts to gain
they should be, opening the door to theft abilities in its government and infrastruc-
targeting managed service providers that access started in 2016. They succeeded in
and manipulation. Plenty of attacks have ture systems. In the U.S., the two agencies
provide IT infrastructure. And they aren’t gaining access to a power plant’s control
occurred in recent years: In 2018, a malware responsible for cyberwarfare—the U.S.
necessarily covering their tracks as they did system. Late in 2017, security firm FireEye
tool scraped photos from social media and Cyber Command and the National Security
in the past. Beyond the state-sponsored cy- discovered a new form of malware called
used them to launch sophisticated phishing Agency—are playing offense, especially
ber initiatives, there are plenty of talented Triton, which had taken control of an energy
attacks. In Brazil, malware called CamuBot as artificial intelligence becomes a focus
people who are motivated both by a lack of plant in the Middle East. In a separate
targeted bank customers, bypassed bio- for U.S. cyber strategy. But there is a data
economic opportunity and ineffective law attack, hackers targeted Ukraine’s power
metric hardware protections, and took over scientist shortage globally, and it’s especial-
enforcement. It’s created a perfect storm: grid, using malware called Industroyer.
devices. ly hard for the government to attract gifted
Enormous talent, weak laws and economic Cybersecurity company Symantec warned
hackers to public service. That’s due in part
stresses have brought about a growing pool that hackers have already penetrated the
State-Sponsored Security of successful hackers. U.S. power grid, exploiting staff at nuclear
to a bad public image in the wake of Edward
Breaches energy facilities with phishing attacks. The
Snowden. To make matters worse, with a
severe shortage of domestic cybersecurity
It’s now well known that Russian hackers Critical Infrastructure Targets U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team
workers—there are roughly 270,000 unfilled
have targeted voter registration databases issued a sternly-worded notice which was
Researchers recently discovered critical jobs in the field—skilled hackers can com-
in more than 20 U.S. states, and there is the extent of their punitive capabilities, but
security flaws impacting infrastructure— mand perks and big paychecks in the private
evidence that the Russian government had without any enforcement, companies and
bridges, traffic systems, radiation monitor- sector.
a long list of targets that went far beyond utilities managing our critical infrastructure
ing, dams, power grids, etc.—in major U.S.
American politicians running for office—tar- haven’t yet been jolted into action.
289
57 Cybersecurity  Adware
Software that automatically generates
online ads; it can also include spyware that
 Backdoor
Developers intentionally install backdoors
into firmware so that manufacturers can
Terms Everyone
tracks your browsing habits. Adware, in safely upgrade our devices and operating
turn, has driven the demand for ad blocking systems. But backdoors can also be used
software. (See the earlier “Blocking the Ad surreptitiously to harness everything from
Blockers” trend.) our webcams to our personal data.
Should Know  Air gap

A system that is physically separated and
isolated from all other computers, networks
 Black hat
A malicious hacker; someone who hacks for
personal gain.
and the internet for security reasons.
 Bot
 Anonymous An automated program that performs a
A collective of hackers, best known for its simple task. Some—simple chatbots, for
use of the Guy Fawkes mask and distributed example—are completely harmless. Others,
denial of service (DDoS) attacks. Anony- however, can be programmed to repeatedly
mous typically uses the hashtag #Ops when guess passwords to break into a website, for
announcing a new campaign. Past ops instance.
included a takedown of the Church of Scien-
 Botnet
tology and the Westboro Baptist Church.
A group of computers controlled by a third
 Autorun worm party for nefarious purposes. For example,
A malicious program that takes advan- malware installed on your computer can
tage of vulnerabilities in the Windows OS run, undetected, in the background while
AutoRun feature. Autorun worms are often hackers use your machine as part of a large
distributed on USB drives. (As a safety mea- spamming network.
sure, Microsoft sets the AutoRun feature to
 Breach
off by default.)
The moment a hacker gains access to a
device or network via a vulnerability.

 Browser hijacking  Cracking rarily overwhelms the servers, and the site  Encryption
An attack that changes a user’s default A basic term that describes breaking into a or network goes down. The scrambling of data using special code
homepage and search engine without per- security system. Anyone “cracking” a system or software so that it cannot be read by a
 Distributed denial of service attack
mission, often to gain clicks to websites for is doing so maliciously. third party, even if it is intercepted.
(DDoS)
ad revenue or to inflate a page’s ranking in
 Crypto A denial of service attack using a battalion  End-to-end encryption
search results.
Cryptography (or “crypto”) is the art and sci- of machines. When an encrypted message is scrambled
 Brute force attack ence of encrypting data—as well as breaking on both ends, as it is sent and again as it is
 Digital certificate
A laborious, methodical process in which encryption. received.
These authenticate and approve the identity
software automatically guesses every po-
 Data leakage of a person, organization or service.  Exploit
tential password to gain unauthorized entry
The unauthorized access of information The successful leveraging of a vulnerability
into a network or computer.  DNS hijacking
resulting in leaks, theft or loss. in a piece of code, software, hardware, or
A category of attacks that change a com-
 Bug computer network.
 Deep web/net and Dark web/net puter’s settings to ignore a domain name
A flaw in a program that either could be
The deep and dark net/web are actually two system (DNS) or to use a DNS that’s con-  Firewall
harmless, or could allow hackers to exploit
different things, though they’re often controlled by malicious agents. A system of software and hardware that’s
a system.
flated. The deep net or deep web is the vast designed to prevent unauthorized access to
 Doxing
 Compiler trove of data that isn’t indexed by search a computer or computer network.
The practice of hackers rooting out and
A program that translates source code into engines. Spreadsheets, databases and
publishing personally-identifying informa-  Hacker
executable machine language. Hackers use more that are stored on servers make up
tion about someone online. This term means different things to differ-
them as an easier way to surreptitiously this space. The dark web/net is made up of
ent people. People who tinker with code to
gain access to various systems or networks sites that are invisible unless you know how  Dump
purposely manipulate it are hackers. Some
without changing the source code, and to use a special network, such as Tor, which A trove of data released by hackers.
are good, and some are bad. In popular
without being noticed. can find the dark site. Once there, you’ll find Dumpster diving
 culture, “hacker” has taken on a distinctly
what you might expect: pirated software The practice of hackers going through gar-
 Cookie negative connotation.
and content, job listings for hackers, illegal bage looking for information that could help
A small file sent from your computer’s web
drugs, human trafficking and worse.  Hacktivist
browser to a server that helps websites with an exploit. Organizations and individ-
Someone who hacks for social or political
recognize you and helps third parties track  Denial of service attack (DoS) uals who don’t consistently use a shredder
reasons.
audiences. When a hacker sends so many requests to a leave themselves vulnerable to dumpster
website or network that the traffic tempo- divers.
291
 Honeypot  Metadata lately. PGP is a basic method of encrypting  Root
A system or network designed to look like a Data that explains what’s in another set of email (and other data). In order to receive The central nervous system of a computer
high-value target, but built to watch hackers data, such as a jpeg photo, or an email or a and read the message, your intended recipi- or network. It can install new applications,
do their work and learn from their tech- webpage. ent must use a private key to decode it. create files, delete user accounts and so on.
niques.  Phishing
Anyone with root access has ubiquitous and
 Password managers
unfettered access.
 InfoSec Third-party tools that remember one mas- Phishing attacks exploit human vulnerabili-
An abbreviation for “information security.” ter password to unlock a database of all your ties that usually coerce people into sharing  Rootkit
InfoSec can refer to companies and profes- other passwords, while using completely data, login credentials or credit card Malware designed for root access. Often
sionals that work in the field of cybersecurity. different passwords for every site and numbers. undetected, rootkits start running when you
service. While managers are a good idea in start your computer, and they stay running
 Jailbreak  Plaintext
theory, many are cloud-based. If a hacker until you turn off your machine.
To remove the restrictive manufacturer’s Text without any formatting. In the context
gains access to your password manager,
code from a device so that you can repro- of cybersecurity, it also refers to text that  Spearphishing
you’re in big trouble. If you do use one, make
gram it to function as you desire. isn’t encrypted. A more targeted form of phishing to smaller
sure to use a complicated password at least
 RAT
groups, typically within social networks or
 Keys 36 characters long with lots of special char-
work environments.
The code which, just like a physical key, is acters, numbers and capital letters. Remote Access Tool. If you’ve used a remote
used to lock or unlock a system, encrypted login service to access your office com-  Spoofing
 Patch
message, or software. puter while away from work, you’ve used a Spoofing is changing a real email or web
An after-market fix to address vulnerabili-
RAT. But RATs can be malicious, too—just address to make it look like it is a trusted
 Malware ties.
imagine a hacker using a RAT to take over source. Examples include cnnn.com instead
Any software program that’s been designed
 Penetration testing your workstation. of cnn.com, or changing the “from” section
to manipulate a system by stealing informa-
The practice of trying to break into your own  Ransomware
or header of an email to make it look as
tion, augmenting code, or installing a rogue
computer or network in order to test the though it was sent by a coworker. In general,
program. Rootkits, keyloggers, spyware and Malware that allows a hacker to break into
strength of your security. any time data is changed to mimic a trusted
everyday viruses are examples of malware. your computer or network and then take
source, it’s being spoofed. Hackers spoof
 PGP away your access until you pay a specified
 Man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks emails by impersonating people you know,
PGP stands for “Pretty Good Privacy,” and fee or perform a certain action.
Attacks involving a hacker that imperson- and then launch phishing attacks.
you’ve probably seen a lot of PGP numbers
ates a trusted connection in order to steal
showing up in Twitter and Facebook bios
data or information, or to alter communica-
tions between two or more people.
 Verification the flaw is revealed, programmers have
Ensuring that data, and its originators, are “zero days” to do anything about it. (Also
authentic. written as “0day.”)
 Virtual Private Networks  Zombie
Networks that use encryption to create a A computer, connected device, or network
private channel for accessing the internet. that’s been infected by malware and is now
These “VPNs” are necessary when con- being used by the hacker, probably without
necting to public networks—even those at your knowledge. Just like the White Walkers
airports, hotels and coffee shops. in Game of Thrones, but machines!
 Virus
Malware intended to steal, delete or ransom
your files. Mimicking the flu, this type of
For more resources and definitions, we rec-
malware spreads like a biological virus.
ommend NATO’s cooperative Cyber Defense
 Vulnerability Centre of Excellence’s online database:
A weakness in computer software that https://ccdcoe.org.
hackers can exploit for their own gain.
 White hat
White hats are security experts who work
on highlighting vulnerabilities and bugs in
order to fix them and protect us.
 Worm
A certain kind of invasive malware that
spreads like a virus.
 Zero-day exploits
In the hacking community, these exploits
are valuable because they are undisclosed
vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Once
293
26 Geopolitics,
Geoeconomics
& Tech Policy
296 Antitrust Probes
and Lawsuits
298 Policy Uncertainty
299 Regulating Data Ownership
301 Digital Dividends
to Fund Universal Basic
Income Plans
302 U.S. and Global
Election Security
303 Interoperability Initiatives
304 Corporate Foreign Policy
305 Multilateral Science
and Technology Acts
306 Overhauling Government
Tech Infrastructure
China’s Quest for Global
308
Cybersovereignty
309 Strategic Guidance:
The Case for Establishing
the U.S. National Office
of Strategic Foresight
295
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Antitrust Probes and Lawsuits
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight tors’ patents; and their merger and acqui-

sition activity, which has helped them to
Antitrust laws exist to ensure and promote
consolidate power.
fair competition between companies, in part
to protect consumers. Regulators in many The U.S. Department of Justice’s Antitrust
countries are planning to take action to limit Division began hiring more staff in January
the reach and powers of the world's largest, 2020 to support their probes into big tech
most dominant technology companies. companies. The Federal Trade Commission
is examining Amazon’s retail and cloud busi-
Why It Matters nesses and Facebook’s acquisitions. Nu-
Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google have merous state attorneys general are inves-
all faced pressure from lawmakers and tigating Google and Facebook. Meanwhile,
federal agencies over their expanding power the House of Representatives Judiciary
and their control of data. Committee is investigating Apple, Ama-
zon, Facebook, and Google. There is some
Examples debate in the U.S. regarding the Sherman
Act, which was originally written to regulate
In general, antitrust authorities are con-
Big tech companies will face antitrust probes and lawsuits in 2020. and break apart the enterprises of railroad
cerned with six key areas: big tech compa-
and oil tycoons, who had built America’s
nies’ ability to control data; the power they
biggest monopolies. What U.S. courts have
have to impose terms on competitors; the
yet to decide is whether big tech companies
fact that they are both participants in and
are indeed monopolies, which would trigger
owners of their platforms; their potential
the Act’s application. So far, the big tech
use of algorithms to thwart competition;
companies have argued that there is plenty
their habit of infringing on small competi-
of competition—if people or organizations

don’t want to use Facebook, there are plenty
of other social media companies to choose
how Amazon uses customer data. This year
she and her division will review the E.U.’s
The Impact
Breaking apart big tech companies could
Tech companies are
from. Except at this point, the services antitrust parameters and could change how
these tech firms provide aren't quite so sim- member governments anti-competitive-
prove difficult. For example, as Amazon
continues to build digital payments, logis-
“too big, and we’ve
ple or interchangeable: companies like Yelp, ness—a new law could be on the books by
Spotify, Airbnb, and Tinder use Facebook mid-year.
tics, and package delivery infrastructure,
it could indirectly crush other retailers who
allowed them to
and Twitter for authentication. Facebook is
launching a cryptocurrency platform that What’s Next use other, inferior platforms. But that still
wouldn’t be illegal. At the moment, we don’t
exercise monopoly
can be used within Facebook’s ecosystem. The problem with existing antitrust laws
Google and Facebook effectively control
the entire market for digital advertising, and
is that they don’t always mesh with our
have any laws against being really, really
smart.
power.”
ever-evolving business landscape. For ex-
Amazon is the undisputed leader in e-com- ample, Amazon recently acquired Zappos, Watchlist – David Cicilline,
merce in most markets. (Exceptions include Diapers.com, and Whole Foods. Together, U.S. House of Representatives
Big tech companies (especially Amazon,
Alibaba and Baidu in China.) all three give the company a much larger
Apple, Facebook, and Google), Congress,
Antitrust Division chairman.
In the European Union, the argument retail footprint, but individually, each acqui-
Federal Trade Commission, E.U. Competi-
against big tech has been gaining more sition doesn’t amount to unfair competition.
tion Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, U.S.
traction. In 2017, the E.U. fined Google a (It’s not the same as Walmart, a retailer that
Department of Justice Antitrust Division.
record-breaking $2.7 billion for what adju- sells related items—home goods, clothing,
dicators said was illegally nudging users to gardening supplies and foodstuffs—buying
its comparison shopping site rather than to grocery stores Publix and Safeway.) Several
off-platform retail sites. In September 2018, new tech antitrust policies will take effect
the E.U.’s Competition Commissioner Mar- in 2020 in an attempt to modernize our
grethe Vestager began an investigation into approach to antitrust for the digital era.
297
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Policy Uncertainty
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight specification or guidance, businesses can’t What’s Next foresight and long-term planning know how
make decisions. In the past few years, to weather policy uncertainty, but compa-
In our current and near-future political Policy uncertainty exists in other critical
leaders across varied industry sectors nies without a process in place could find
climate, there is great uncertainty in what areas of the U.S. economy: how we will build
have bemoaned uncertainty. Automakers the next several years challenging.
key technology, environmental, and trade out 5G networks and how we will interact
are still recovering from whiplash: In 2012,
policies will be—not just in the U.S., but in with countries using networks built on Watchlist
there were new rules mandating 39 miles
other markets around the world as well. Chinese-made components; how personal
per gallon fuel consumption rates by 2025, Big tech companies (especially Amazon,
data will be used by big tech companies;
Why It Matters but then in 2018 the Trump Administration Apple, Facebook, and Google), car manu-
whether big tech companies will be allowed
proposed scrapping the requirement for facturers, renewable energy companies,
One of the biggest threats to the continued to continue to operate as they are today,
new cars. Then in January 2020, fuel effi- government agencies.
expansion of our economies is confidence. and so on.
ciency policy was reintroduced: Required
When it comes to technology—whether to
miles per gallon standards will now increase The Impact
regulate privacy, security, data, and trade—
1.5% per year from 2021-2026. For the past
policy uncertainty is a trigger that could Imagine trying to convince a board of
several years, Americans have been eligible
cause the market to overreact. directors to take a chance on innovative
for tax credits for the purchase of new
new ideas and areas of research when they
electric vehicles, but this year the credit is
Examples have no real sense of what direction corre-
being phased out. At the start of the year,
At the start of the Trump presidency in 2017, sponding legislature and regulations might
automakers will offer $7,500 in credits for
the White House promised a “comprehen- take. Companies could start to blame policy
each electric vehicle they sell up to 200,000
sive review of all federal regulations” for uncertainty for a lack of critical invest-
units. The available credit then gets cut in
policies involving the environment, such as ment in R&D and innovation, which would
half six months later, and then it’s halved
whether to continue tax credits for electric put countries like the U.S. at a strategic
again (down to $1,875) six months after that.
cars and solar panels, and how much to limit disadvantage compared to nations with
Finally, the credit goes to zero. If democrats
carbon dioxide emissions. Without further less fluctuation in their national leadership. The U.S. economic policy uncertainty index,
win big in November, the entire scheme
Leadership teams who commit to strategic 1985 - 2019, from www.policyuncertainty.com.
could change yet again.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Regulating Data Ownership
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight intellectual property, or copyrights. Deter- data? If you take a 23andMe DNA test, who concerns and privacy. Meanwhile, most peo-
mining what can be done with the personal owns your genome? What happens to your ple may continue to be oblivious to just how
Who, exactly, owns your data? This is a
data at a company’s disposal, and under enormous trail of data when you die? much data they're generating, what might
matter of contention, as tech companies,
what circumstances, should be a topic of When it comes to IoT in our homes, is the be done with it, and how it might be used
advocacy groups, and governments start to
conversation in every boardroom. Data gov- data generated within our walls and physical against them.
define who has ultimate power and control
ernance may sound boring, but it should be spaces governed by privacy rights? Does the
over our information. The Impact
a centerpiece of every corporate strategy. Fifth Amendment mean that wearables—our
Why It Matters In a world where every device is smart and fitness trackers, connected bras, smart Without careful thought and planning today,
connected—essentially “paying attention” watches—can’t be used to self-incrimi- we could wind up robbed of a valuable cur-
In a digital economy, data is currency.
to you at all times—surveillance is constant nate us in court? How, ultimately, should rency we helped create.
Examples and boundaries of ownership are unclear. we define privacy in a digital era? These
Watchlist
Those bits and bytes we constantly shed are questions that still must be answered
In recent months, we’ve seen a flood of
may originate from us, but that doesn’t collectively by companies, government Big tech companies (especially Amazon,
headlines about personal data security,
mean they necessarily belong to us, which officials, and, frankly, any living, breathing Apple, Facebook, and Google), government
as Google, Facebook, and Apple strive to
brings up thorny questions: Who is the legal human being. agencies.
convince us—despite mounting evidence to
guardian of our data? Do companies have
the contrary—that their privacy policies and
the right to change end-user agreements What’s Next
data management systems can be trusted
without actively notifying users with a clear Initiatives spearheaded by former U.S. pres-
by all users. “Privacy shouldn’t be a luxury
explanation of what is changing, and the idential candidate Andrew Yang, as well as
good,” wrote Google CEO Sundar Pichai in a
potential impact? We could even go down a projects at the World Economic Forum and
2019 New York Times op-ed.
more philosophical road. What does owning United Nations, aim to create guidelines for
There are real-world business implications a piece of data look like? Is "ownership" data ownership. The big tech companies
when it comes to the future of data own- itself a misnomer, and does stewardship or will continue to face regulatory scrutiny in
ership. In most countries, "data ownership" guardianship better describe our relation- the coming year, and investors are paying
has typically referred to the legal rights to Data ownership will be debated
ship with data? What about your genetic attention. Most of the focus is on antitrust
throughout 2020.
299
SCENARIO • MARC PALATUCCI
You’re Saddled with Data Debt

MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
Tech companies take a page from today’s banks, which are incentivized
to encourage consumer debt that, when compounded, leads to more
profit for the financial institutions. Just as bank customers can become
hopelessly buried in financial debt, nowadays average citizens find
themselves drowning in “data debt,” committed to providing deeper and
deeper levels of personal data in exchange for arguably indispensable
services. Eventually, every thought and action is quantified, seized, and
made available for sale by the new debt collectors of the tech sector.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Digital Dividends to Fund Universal
STRATEGY NOW
Basic Income Plans REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight cratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang idend,” on the other hand, could be a viable
launched a pilot UBI program in New Hamp- alternate path to the future. Researchers at
A digital dividend would give citizens a cut of
shire—if it is successful, and if he ends up in Oxford’s Institute for Humanity, researchers
the profits derived from their personal data.
a future presidential cabinet, he would work at the Future Today Institute, and former
Why It Matters to ensure that every American aged 18 to 64 presidential candidate Andrew Yang sepa-
would receive $1,000 every month, regard- rately published works outlining different
The idea of an unconditional guaranteed
less of employment status. The money to versions of this digital dividend—a way for
income for every citizen of a given country
pay for this UBI initiative would come from companies to pay back to society a portion
is now being discussed both as a means of
consolidating social service programs and of the profits derived from A.I. (See also:
encouraging entrepreneurial innovation,
from a value-added tax (similar to current A.I. and digital dividends.)
and as a response to workforce-displacing
taxes in Europe) of 10% passed on to the
Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang automation, advanced robotics, and artifi-
consumer based on the value added at vari- The Impact
offered universal basic income and data cial intelligence.
ous steps in the production of goods. There As the workforce changes due to auto-
ownership proposals during his campaign.
are city-scale experimental UBI programs mation, governments worldwide will need
Examples
now running in Oakland and Stockton, to find new alternatives to existing public
All eyes were on a test of this idea of uni- California. The Stockton project will give support programs.
versal basic income (UBI) in Finland, but the 100 randomly selected low-income families
program came to an early close in 2018. It $500 a month for 18 months. Watchlist
targeted only 2,000 randomly unemployed
Future Today Institute, Oxford Institute for
citizens and gave them 560 euros a month What’s Next
Humanity, Stanford Center for Philanthropy
(that’s about $675) for two years. The
UBI programs may not be feasible going and Civil Society.
model didn’t work there—but some experts
forward in many places, due in large part to
believe that’s because other social welfare
sizeable aging populations and too few new
programs weren’t adjusted alongside the
workers entering paying jobs. A “digital div-
UBI program. Early in 2019, then Demo-
301
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
U.S. and Global Election Security
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples secure way for people to vote from their Watchlist
living rooms, was shown to have multiple
This is an election year, and security experts Russia interfered with elections around the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project,
vulnerabilities. Researchers from MIT found
are warning that our election systems could world during 2016 and 2017, and safeguard- Central Intelligence Agency, Department
that an attacker could hack into phones
be vulnerable to outside attacks as well ing our voting systems is an ongoing chal- of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and
via Voatz’s Android app and then observe,
as domestic technical incompetence and lenge that has yet to be fully resolved. It’s Infrastructure Security Agency, National
suppress and alter votes cast. The research
mismanagement. now clear that Russia meddled in the 2016 Conference of State Legislatures, MIT,
team also detailed how the Voatz API could
U.S. election. This included pilfering local National Security Agency, Presidential
Why It Matters be compromised to alter ballots before a
and national election databases, hampering Commission on Election Administration,
final count was made.
In January 2019, House Democrats intro- registration operations in districts around Russia, Shadow Inc., Voatz, local voting
duced new election security measures the country, and deliberately spreading What’s Next commissions everywhere.
as part of the For the People Act, which false or misleading information to target po-
A January 2020 NPR/PBS NewsHour/
mandates that states revert to using litical candidates. Unfortunately, we made it
Marist Poll revealed that 41% of those
paper ballots in elections, which must be easy for hackers to break in—during the 2016
surveyed said they believed the U.S. is not
hand-counted or counted using optical election, 43 states used electronic voting
very prepared or not prepared at all to keep
character recognition. It will also authorize machines that were perilously out of date.
November's election safe and secure.
the Election Assistance Commission to In 2020, the Iowa Democratic Party used
support smaller districts with grants to an app, called Shadow, built to simplify and The Impact
upgrade their systems, and it also tasks the streamline caucus results reporting. The
Cybersecurity experts have repeatedly
Department of Homeland Security to run a system failed at the most critically import-
demonstrated that our existing internet
security and threat assessment audit ahead ant time, challenging the accuracy and
voting systems aren’t impenetrable. Law-
of all future elections. The bill will still need integrity of the results. Meanwhile Voatz, a
makers will likely debate mandatory voting
a vote and funding for implementation, but blockchain-based voting system that was
technology standards: technology, connec-
it’s a sign that our elections systems are piloted during West Virginia's 2018 general Election security was an area of concern
tivity, and security.
now in transition. election and has been heralded as a new, during the 2020 election cycle.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Interoperability Initiatives
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight their information over from one platform

to another if they want, and so that smaller
Amazon, Apple, and Google use different
companies could more easily make use of
operating systems for their various devices
our data. (With our permission, of course.)
and ecosystems, which some regulators
Meanwhile Apple, Amazon and Google joined
argue is anti-competitive.
the Zigbee Alliance to develop a shared con-
Why It Matters nectivity standard allowing hardware from
different companies to work together.
Lawmakers have threatened to break up big
tech companies, but there may be less dis- What’s Next
ruptive ways forward that involve increasing
Incentivizing companies to make their
interoperability amongst these firms.
protocols and hardware interoperable could
Examples help curtail some of the antitrust probes the
big tech firms will face this year.
A bipartisan group of lawmakers led by
Senators Mark Warner (D-VA), Richard The Impact
Blumenthal (D-CT), and Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Interoperability and data portability could
proposed a new bill to encourage com-
eventually lead to new business opportuni-
petition by making big tech’s platforms
ties and a bigger device ecosystem.
interoperable. The Augmenting Compati-
U.S. Sen. Mark Warner has led efforts to make mandatory the interoperability of platforms, bility and Competition by Enabling Services Watchlist
devices and services. Switching Act (or ACCESS, for short) would
Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, U.S.
require Google and Facebook to maintain
government, Zigbee Alliance.
API-like interfaces so that users could port
303
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Corporate Foreign Policy
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight In 2019, Apple CEO Tim Cook met with China’s What’s Next
head market regulator in Beijing; the com-
Big tech companies are standing up depart- In a globalized world, tech companies could
pany subsequently removed a live app map
ments dedicated to geopolitics. wield great influence on the future construc-
from its app store that was being used by
tion of wireless networks, device ecosys-
Why It Matters protestors in Hong Kong. Microsoft presi-
tems, artificial intelligence, and more. As
dent Brad Smith spearheaded a corporate
Some lawmakers are asking if our tech com- they consolidate power in the commercial
foreign policy group within the company, and
panies are so expansive and powerful that sector, big tech could wind up consolidating
he champions multi-stakeholder approach-
they now function like nation states. power in the public sector, too.
es to geopolitics. He regularly meets with
foreign ministers and heads of state. In 2017, The Impact
Examples
Smith introduced a Digital Geneva Conven-
Microsoft president Brad Smith wants to In the U.S., our largest companies have It’s one thing for a big company to lobby do-
tion—an international treaty intended to
restore trust in technology companies. always engaged in lobbying for the purpose mestic lawmakers, but some are wondering
protect citizens against state-sponsored
of influencing policy and regulation. But as what the longer-term implications would be
cyberattacks—and his team actively works
the tech giants amass power and wealth, for corporations trying to influence geoeco-
on a tech-focused approach to foreign policy.
delegations from foreign governments are nomics. What if a company’s priorities differ
Tech companies are actively poaching staff
establishing small outposts in Silicon Valley. from the national priorities of its government
at the State Department, especially those
Austria and Denmark both maintain missions at home?
who have become jaded under the chaotic
in San Francisco so that they can actively en- and confusing working conditions of the
gage with the tech community, while China Watchlist
Trump Administration.
maintains several offices for venture funding Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Micro-
all throughout Silicon Valley. soft, U.S. Department of State, governments
worldwide.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Multilateral Science
STRATEGY NOW
and Technology Acts REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH

Throughout history, multilateral efforts have The Geneva Conventions, the League of Proposals to create multilateral initiatives
resulted in nations working together toward Nations, International Monetary Fund, Unit- on artificial intelligence, genomic editing,
a shared purpose. ed Nations, and World Health Organization and blockchain could prevent future conflict
started as a result of multilateral agreements between researchers, companies and
Why It Matters between sovereign nations. After somewhat countries.
With debates about the future of CRISPR, recent revelations that a pair of genetically
ocean plastics, climate, autonomous vehi- engineered twin girls had been born in China, Watchlist
cles, A.I., and space exploration reaching some now wonder whether international American Association for the Advancement
fever pitch, there will be new multilateral norms are enough. of Science, International Social Science
Lawmakers, researchers and ethicists are science and technology acts proposed. Council, International Union of Biologi-
calling for multilateral acts to help guide What’s Next cal Sciences, United Nations, the United
the future of science and technology. Now that many fields of science and technol- Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
ogy have started to produce transformation- Organization (UNESCO), the World Econom-
al new developments, lawmakers, research- ic Forum.
ers, and ethicists are calling for some kind of
consensus, proposing international delibera-
tions that could lead to international treaties
and protocols.
305
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Overhauling Government
STRATEGY NOW
Tech Infrastructure REVISIT KEEP

L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Government Accountability Office (GAO) The Impact

report estimated that we spend $80 billion
Parts of the federal government rely on com- There aren’t many technicians who have
annually on IT because of obsolete technol-
ically old technology that is vulnerable and enough institutional knowledge to make the
ogies and sweeping inefficiencies. The GAO
very difficult to maintain. necessary fixes, which means re-hiring re-
report included a sobering technology audit.
tired employees at high contract wages. Until
Why It Matters It found that the State Department uses a
significant updates are made, these legacy
26-year-old system to track visa information
Overhauling federal technology infrastruc- systems are vulnerable to attack.
for 55,000 foreign nationals—software that
ture has bipartisan appeal.
has since been decommissioned by the Watchlist
vendor who built it.
Examples Government Accountability Office, Internal
Some departments in the U.S. government In 2017, President Donald Trump signed an What’s Next Revenue Service, Office of Management and
still use legacy computer equipment. executive order to modernize the U.S. gov- Budget, Office of Science and Technology
In a perplexing move, President Trump
ernment. To kick off the process, he invited Policy, and U.S. departments of Defense, En-
acknowledged that government systems
20 tech CEOs to the White House to discuss ergy, Health and Human Services, Homeland
need to be overhauled—but then didn’t name
how to make the transition. But the idea of Security, Housing and Urban Development,
key advisors who would have the authority
overhauling government IT didn’t start with Justice, State, and Transportation, U.S.
to make needed changes, casting doubt on
the Trump White House. President Barack Digital Service, as well as lawmakers.
the future of the initiative. The problem isn’t
Obama created the U.S. Digital Service to
just about legacy systems, it’s about keeping
attract tech sector experts to federal jobs
pace with the changing nature of technology.
and to fix the broken system from within.
Old software, machines, and systems are
There’s a financial incentive to do so: A 2016
expensive to maintain.

New Policy Questions We Need to Ask in 2020
 Can the government force big tech companies to make A.I. explainable?  Who owns your biology?
Should A.I. systems carry something akin to a nutritional label, detailing the You are shedding biometric data every day, either intentionally or unwittingly.
training data used, the processes used for learning, the real-world data being Every time you speak to Alexa, use your fingerprint or face to unlock a device,
used in applications and the expected outcomes? For sensitive or proprietary or allow a photo to be automatically tagged when you upload it to social media,
systems, should trusted third parties be able to assess and verify an A.I.’s you are voluntarily sharing your bioinformation with for-profit companies.
transparency? What legal right do they have to change end-user agreements? Who is the
ultimate legal guardian of that data? Can a company take ownership of your
 Who should own our data? DNA and other biodata in perpetuity? Can it be given the perpetual, royalty-free
What should data governance look like in an era when companies act as data worldwide license to our data?
brokers, profiting off of the information we give them, often without us fully
realizing the extent of what we’ve shared?  Can your Fitbit plead the Fifth?
Does the Fifth Amendment mean that wearables—our fitness trackers,
 How should we define privacy in a digital era? connected bras, smart watches—can’t be used to self-incriminate us in court?
Can law enforcement agencies use the Fourth Amendment to compel a
company to jailbreak a device? If citizens use spatial computing systems in  Do anti-slavery protections extend to Alexa?
their homes, are the data generated by walls and physical spaces governed by Our Thirteenth Amendment declares that “neither slavery nor involuntary
privacy rights? servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been
duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to
 Can bots break the law? their jurisdiction." It doesn’t specifically reference humans. Do anti-slavery
If a digital assistant or bot breaks a law without your direct involvement— protections extend to our artificially intelligent agents?
automatically purchasing illegal drugs or using hate speech against another
person—who’s to blame? You? The individual developers who created the
assistant or bot’s code? Or the technology company that built the platform?
307
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
China’s Quest for Global
STRATEGY NOW
Cybersovereignty REVISIT KEEP

L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight sors to remove not just the episode—but model for other countries around the world,
all instances of South Park content on the and now other authoritarian regimes are fol-
Cybersovereignty refers to a government
internet, social media, and in discussion lowing suit. China’s Belt and Road Initiative,
exerting its control over how the internet is
rooms. In China, Twitter, Facebook, and which has been a huge success in expanding
run, who gets access to it, and what can be
Google are impossible to access without trade throughout emerging economies, also
done with all of the data generated.
a VPN—citizens instead use home-grown has boosted the country’s digital initiatives.
Why It Matters apps like Baidu and WeChat to surf the web Russia passed “sovereign internet” laws in
and chat with friends. The CCP argues that 2019 that allow authorities to track and block
In 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping pushed
China is an enormous country in the midst of information as it pleases. Vietnam passed a
forward an agenda of strict control, censor-
the fastest economic transition in modern law that, like China, allows the government
ship and suppression, and it is starting to
history, and their unique controls are meant to block content it deems problematic to
China is building a new set of digital tools export its systems to authoritarian leaders
to promote social and economic stability. society.
and networks for the future. elsewhere in the world.
But there’s more to it than that: In 2019, Xi
also announced that the government would The Impact
Examples
wean itself off of foreign-made computers Within a decade, the digital world could be
China has always restricted what can be and operating systems, replacing familiar split in two, a free system in the West, and a
posted digitally and by whom, but last year brands (Microsoft, Dell, Apple) with Chinese closed system led by China.
there were serious repercussions for those products.
who violated the Communist Party of China’s Watchlist
(CPC) content preferences. A "South Park" What’s Next
Governments worldwide.
episode critical of the Chinese government
President Xi has said that China’s digital and
quickly went viral, which prompted cen-
information systems can serve as a new

AMY WEBB
Strategic Guidance:
The Case for Establishing the U.S. National Office of Strategic Foresight
The federal government has at its fingertips an abundance of technical experts Joint AI Center and National Security Commission on A.I. each focus on artificial
spread across myriad agencies. But the U.S. still lacks a centralized office that’s intelligence used primarily in national security and defense.
charged with long-range, comprehensive, streamlined planning to address critical
science and technology developments. When it comes to planning for the future of A.I., there’s even more duplication:
specifically between the National Artificial Intelligence Research and Develop-
Without a more coordinated approach, we will continue along the status quo, ment Strategic Plan and the National Security Strategy and the National Security
which results in a misalignment between agencies and redundant strategic work. Commission on A.I.
At the start of the next presidential term, the new President should create a new,
centralized office championing strategic foresight. In addition, top tech executives are often asked to serve on multiple commis-
sions or to participate in similar efforts across government. This overlap actually
This office would bring strategic leadership and processes and use data-driven creates a glaring gap: With so many groups working either redundantly or even
models to analyze plausible futures—continually evaluating macro sources of at odds with each other, the U.S. will miss key opportunities to coordinate efforts
change, finding emerging trends, and mapping the trajectory and velocity of those between tech, finance and government—efforts that could otherwise drive signifi-
changes. The focus of the office would be to bring authoritative, unbiased insights cant forward progress within a reasonable timeframe.
to the executive branch, facilitate forward-leaning research, lead strategic con-
versations, disseminate knowledge and capabilities, and drive the kind of rigorous Without a central strategic foresight office, we won’t establish the norms, stan-
quantitative and qualitative proceedings that result in real, concrete actions. dards and regulations desperately needed for the future. Worse, we will squander
important opportunities to leverage new technologies that could spur economic
The Challenge development and that could help us prepare our future workforce, augment our
national security, and promote civic well-being. Existing mechanisms for science
The U.S. government has no blueprint for articulating long-term research and de- and technology within the executive branch lack the scope, mandate, and exper-
velopment funding targets at a critical time in our country: Emerging technologies tise necessary to do strategic forecasting, and they lack the cross-cutting ap-
in A.I., genomics, autonomous transportation, home automation, and biometric proach needed to meet tomorrow's challenges.
data collection are fast changing and coalescing, and they will have serious socie-
tal implications that reach far beyond the existing mandate of federal science and Here’s a look at the competing federal agencies and councils, their oversight and
technology agencies. scope of existing duties:
For example, numerous initiatives, agencies, councils, and centers now work White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)
independently on the future of A.I. on behalf of the United States. Yet interagen- This group is charged with advising the President on science and technology
cy collaboration on these efforts is inadequate, just as coordinated efforts to issues and with leading interagency policy coordination efforts. The OSTP can tap
streamline goals, outcomes, R&D efforts and funding tend to be. For instance, The deep technical expertise and has the institutional mandate to lead federal science
National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and various congressional and technology agencies in strategic planning processes.
offices are all separately trying to define technical specifications for A.I., while the
309
Yet OSTP is not organized for a strategic forecasting role, and it lacks the authority technologies. Yet the organization’s mandate is more of an oversight role—rather
to articulate future budget targets—a role that falls to the Office of Management than a strategic one.
and Budget. Nonetheless, OSTP leads strategic planning processes through the
While each of the above entities marshal some aspect of a strategic foresight
National Science and Technology Council, a coordinating entity for science and
function, no single group is charged with a single focus on strategic foresight
technology policy across federal R&D agencies. Together, these two organizations
across domains nor given the resources needed to undertake a comprehensive
are responsible for the following:
approach to the emergence of a range of new platform technologies.
 Taking on domain-specific strategic planning, such as the federal government's
recently updated National Artificial Intelligence R&D Strategic Plan. A Proposal
Regardless of who occupies the Oval Office in 2021 and beyond, our President
 Overseeing national coordinating offices responsible for cross-agency initia-
must champion a foresight process that positions our leaders to plan for the long-
tives. This includes the National Information Technology R&D (NITRD) Program
term future. A new Strategic Foresight Office (SFO) will position leaders to articu-
and the National Nanotechnology Initiative. For example, NITRD acts as the
late and drive a positive future—one in which the United States remains a powerful
nation’s primary plan to coordinate federally funded research and develop-
global force.
ment for advanced information technologies (IT), computing, networking and
software. It’s scope is broad: 21 federal member agencies. Yet still, its charge The new SFO would exist within the White House Office of Science and Technolo-
doesn’t include strategic forecasting functions, such as modeling the next-or- gy Policy (OSTP) and would use the convening power of the National Science and
der implications. Technology Council to implement a plan with the President. This structure would
mimic that of the Office of the Chief Technology Officer created in 2009 by Presi-
National Security Council “Stratplan” team
dent Barack Obama that elevated the importance of technology, data, and innova-
This is the White House’s body for coordinating national security-related strategic
tion in policy making. The head of the SFO would report directly to the President,
planning on a wide range of issues, including emerging technologies.
serving as an assistant to the President.
President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology
The SFO’s responsibilities should be educational, strategic and tactical. The office
The Council acts as a formal advisory group to provide the President with advice
would gather administration officials, department heads, members of Congress
on a broad range of science and technology issues. Though it lacks formal author-
and other stakeholders regularly and facilitate strategic conversations, prototype
ity, it nonetheless can elevate critical issues and propose federal strategies to
policy and model impact scenarios for the future. It would further build a culture of
address them.
foresight in the federal government to inform the long-term vision for our country.
Science and Technology Policy Institute
The SFO would pave the way for a dedicated team of individuals to think exclusive-
This independent federally-funded research and development center serves as
ly about long-term science and technology issues of national importance and their
OSTP’s think tank. It receives annual appropriations from Congress to inform OSTP
broader implications. While OSTP staff members oversee policy topics, they don’t
on policy decisions. But its function is dramatically underutilized.
always have the same long-term strategic perspective, in part because of limited
Government Accountability Office time and intense, competing demands. The SFO could provide the people and
The GAO recently reorganized to strengthen its science and technology and resources needed to provide that long-term planning and strategic thought that is
forecasting functions, and it may be a source of strategic expertise on emerging often absent in policy discussions, simply because of limited bandwidth.

To give this office real teeth, its responsibilities should include: Strategic Foresight Office: Where to Start?
Report to President The SFO for emerging science and technology should start with a focus on artifi-
The head of the SFO would co-chair the NSTC with the OSTP director and serve cial intelligence and then begin adjacent work on a few other pressing science and
as an assistant to the President, responsible for providing strategic advice on a tech issues, including biotechnology and gene editing, autonomous transporta-
full range of science and technology topics. tion, microsatellites, smart cities and the internet of things, quantum technologies
and robotics. Because all of these domains are adjacent to or directly involve A.I.,
Staff focusing first on A.I. as a platform technology would help the SFO develop a base-
The SFO would employ people with strategic forecasting expertise and varied line of workflows and processes for how it will cover other areas of science and
backgrounds in emerging science and technology issues. Staff members could be technology.
drawn from other agencies or institutions through detail and IPA arrangements.
Budget Authority The SFO should clearly define A.I. as a public good. When economists define a
The office would have a mandate to create an emerging technologies budget “public good,” they use a very strict definition: It must be non excludable, meaning
crosscut in the President’s annual budget and would articulate a series of for- it’s impossible to exclude an entity from using it, because to do so would be impos-
ward-looking budget requests that extend five to 10 years in the future. sible; and it must be nonrivalrous, meaning that when one entity uses it another
can use it too.
Strategic Planning
The SFO would use a standardized, rigorous, data-driven foresight method- If we formally define A.I. as a public good, this doesn’t preclude large companies
ology and would work through the NSTC’s committee structure to work with from earning revenue. But it does offer an opportunity to develop and enforce a
agency leaders and their teams on strategic planning and drive execution common set of norms and standards for those companies, schools and research-
with accountability. ers that are operating within or in partnership with the United States. We are now
Cross-Agency Priority Goals at the beginning of A.I.’s modern evolution, and we cannot continue to think of A.I.
The SFO would work with OMB to create a suite of cross-agency priority goals, as a platform built by big tech companies in the U.S. and China for digital com-
which could drive progress on interagency efforts. merce, communications and cool apps. We must envision A.I. broadly as a non-
excludable, non rivalrous public good that is developed in the best interests of all
National Coordinating Offices citizens, rather than just a few tech giants.
The SFO would create establish new coordinating offices and oversee existing
domain-specific offices, such as NITRD that would drive cross-agency strategic The following immediate executive actions can be taken by the SFO
priorities.
1. Adapt or develop a rigorous, data-driven methodology for strategic foresight
External Expertise that shares common frameworks, models and vocabulary—one that can be used
The SFO must draw on considerable outside expertise, too. In addition to con- throughout all government and military offices. It should include frameworks
vening technical advisory committees, the SFO would access outside, world- and methods for: time horizon analysis, broadly-defined stakeholder analysis,
class expertise in science and technology on an ad hoc basis. This has long been defining weak signals, defining and verifying emerging trends, quantifying the
the domain of the OSTP—via the Science and Technology Policy Institute. velocity and trajectory of change, identifying areas of deep uncertainty, devel-
Report to Congress oping data-driven scenarios to confront those areas of deep uncertainty, using
The SFO would be held accountable to Congress through regular reporting on its those scenarios to backcast near- and long-term strategic actions, quantifying
work, including dissemination of the strategic plans it creates.
311
priorities based on established key indicators, and incentivizing continual, incre- In such varied places as the Department the Interior, the Social Security Admin-
mental action. This methodology, its frameworks and lexicon should become the istration, Housing and Urban Affairs, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
accepted process for strategic foresight throughout the U.S. government and Veterans Affairs, and beyond, there must be A.I. experts embedded and embold-
military. ened to help guide decision-making.
2. Develop guidelines for the rigorous, data-driven modeling of risk and opportuni- 3. Develop and implement a whole-of-government A.I. strategy. Coordinating
ty. Every science and technology domain studied must incorporate intersections everything from federally-funded research to the application of A.I. for citizen
with other areas: education, public health and medicine, workforce, energy and services, such an effort would ensure a comprehensive federal approach.
climate.
4. Spearhead international collaboration on setting guardrails for A.I. and enforc-
3. Conduct thorough audits and assessments of government funding in critical ing standards, testing advanced systems before their commercial release, and
areas of science and technology. monitoring activity as A.I. progresses from narrow to general to super intelli-
gence. One way to do this would be through a new international entity, the Global
4. Develop a tactical, durable plan for driving interagency collaboration. Alliance on Intelligence Augmentation, which I describe in greater depth in my
5. Forge meaningful public-private sector relationships that incentivize collabora- recent book, The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines
tion and transparency. Could Warp Humanity.
Learnings from the A.I. pilot should be used to expand the SFO’s area of coverage
As part of its initial agenda, the SFO should focus on developing the to include genomics, space, agriculture, education, autonomous transportation
following immediate A.I. actions: and other areas.
1. Define a national priority to establish principles, norms and standards for de-
veloping and deploying A.I. in the public interest. Failing to treat A.I. as a public The establishment of a Strategic Foresight Office would require significant bi-
good—the way we do our breathable air—will result in serious, insurmountable partisan support. However, failing to develop strategies for emerging science and
problems. Treating A.I. as a public good does not preclude the private sector technologies in advance will result in untenable outcomes, pitting our legal and
from earning revenue and growing. It just means shifting our thinking and expec- governing systems against the public sector. Waiting until game-changing science
tations. Someday we will not have the luxury of debating and discussing auto- and technology hits the mainstream will guarantee that the U.S. falls behind other
mation within the context of human rights and geopolitics. A.I. will have become countries. Yielding strategic thinking to special interest groups makes our future
too complex for us to untangle and shape into something we prefer. A public dependent on politicking, which always results in poor long-term decisions. The
good must meet a standard set of criteria set by a global body, one that has the SFO offers an alternative, one in which long-term strategic planning will set us on a
power and ability to enforce compliance. responsible course for the future.
2. Develop federal A.I. capacity. All levels of government—leaders, managers, peo-

Excerpted from “A National Office for Strategic Foresight Anchored in Critical Sci-
ple who work on budgets, those who write policy—should demonstrate a working
ence and Technologies,” Stanford University, Geopolitics, Technology and Gover-
knowledge of A.I. and, ideally, should incorporate those with technical expertise.
nance Cyber Policy Center, October 2019.

313
27 Smart Cities
316 Smart City Initiatives
317 Strengthening Municipal
Cyber-Security Efforts
315
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Smart City Initiatives
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight fice of Technology and Innovation (MOTI) is for smart upgrades in their cities—Alpha-
overseeing a number of different initiatives, bet-owned Sidewalk Labs faced pushback
From smart city grids to car-free zones and
which include smart water metering, city- from citizens regarding the company’s plan
flying taxi parking lots, cities are poised for
wide trash cans with wireless sensors, and for a heavily tech-integrated smart district
transformational updates to their techno-
new air quality monitoring systems. Viet- in Toronto, ultimately scaling back elements
logical systems and related infrastructure.
nam, Indonesia, and Myanmar have inked of their plan and agreeing to more outside
Why It Matters smart city partnerships with Japan, which oversight in response to privacy concerns.
has pledged to help Southeast Asian cities
By 2050, there will be twice as many citi-
ease traffic congestion, introduce cashless The Impact
zens living in cities than in rural areas. As
payments, and harness environmental data Globally, the market for smart city projects
the Internet of Things ecosystem matures,
to improve the quality of life. It’s an alterna- could increase to more than $1 trillion by
The market for smart city projects could there will be new opportunities for city man-
tive to China’s Belt and Road infrastructure 2025, driven in part by multinational part-
increase to more than $1 trillion by 2025. agers to learn from, influence, and optimize
initiative, which is dedicating billions of nerships as well as public-private collabo-
infrastructure, traffic, and daily living.
dollars in loans for various projects to help rations.
modernize its many partner countries.
Examples
Watchlist
In the U.S., a growing number of smart city What’s Next
Airbus, AT&T Wireless, Audi, Continental
initiatives are underway. The city of Austin,
In cities throughout the U.S., universities Automotive Systems, Cora, Ericsson, Flyer,
Texas debuted an open data directive in
are starting to partner with city councils on General Motors, General Motors’ Cruise,
2013, launched a series of smart city goals,
a wide range of experiments. The Argonne Google, Huawei, Hyundai, Lilium, Mer-
and last year began trialing a city-wide
National Laboratory and the University of cedes-Benz, Mobile, NASA’s Urban Air Mobil-
5G network. Boston created an Office of
Washington, for example are deploying a va- ity project, Nissan, Nokia, Sprint, T-mobile,
New Urban Mechanics to spearhead local
riety of sensors around Seattle to improve Toyota, Uber, Volvo, Waymo, Waze, Wisk,
public-private innovation partnerships.
hyper-local weather forecasting due to local business leaders, local municipal
Las Vegas made itself a testing ground for
climate change. But not everyone is eager agencies, universities and colleges.
self-driving vehicles, while NYC Mayor’s Of-

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Strengthening Municipal
STRATEGY NOW
Cyber-Security Efforts REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight have formal cybersecurity policies—and few most organized and resourceful, they have
employ enough trained experts to safeguard the power to cripple critical infrastructure
Historically, cybersecurity hasn’t been a
systems and train employees on how to and wreak havoc in major cities.
top priority for cities and towns. However,
avoid attacks.
as more local government services move Watchlist
online, municipal managers are investing What’s Next Local city and town agencies, local business
in new technologies and better policies to
There is a significant talent shortage—those leaders, local universities and colleges.
protect against attacks.
who have the right skill set and experi-
Why It Matters ence to develop and implement municipal
cybersecurity programs tend to take much
More than 40 American municipalities were
higher-paying jobs in the private sector. If
Cities are not yet prepared to deal with hacked in 2019.
cities are committed to improving cyber-
the coming onslaught of municipal
cyberattacks. Examples security, they must carve out a budget to
invest in qualified staff. Another avenue
In 2019, the city of Baltimore was targeted
being tested in some cities is public-private
by hackers—for several months, residents
partnerships. Whatever the approach, cities
could not pay their water bills or traffic
must act quickly: the longer they wait, the
tickets online, and police officers had to
longer they’re exposing themselves to the
write and submit warrants by hand. When
damaging and costly threat of cybercrime.
the city government of Lake City, Florida,
got hacked, it decided to pay $460,000 in The Impact
bitcoin rather than try to rebuild all of its
Municipal ransomware attacks are now so
compromised systems, which would have
lucrative that hackers are funding their own
cost significantly more. Clever bands of
R&D to build more powerful tools. At their
hackers know that local governments don’t
317
Landscrapers Are on the Horizon

FAR-FUTURE NEUTRAL SCENARIO
In the future, architects may choose to build laterally, rather than
vertically. Advancements in the technology that moves elevators now
allows a new kind of device to move omnidirectionally. Given what we
know to be true about extreme weather and climate change, it’s plau-
sible that economic centers will move inland from the coasts, and that
“landscrapers” will become more mainstream over the next 20 years.
Spanning massive areas the size of several football fields, these new
buildings could withstand high winds and structural pressures due to
sudden, extreme temperature changes. They will create entirely new
city footprints we haven’t seen before in the U.S.

319
28 Blockchain
328 Digital Citizenship
330 Self-Sovereign Identity
331 Web 3.0
333 Tokenizing Value
334 Tokens For Smart Royalties
and Freelancers
335 Immutable Content
336 Content Provenance and
Permanent Archiving
337 Distributed Computing
For a Cause
321
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Blockchain
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT
Blockchain technology hit an inflection
point in 2017. It evolved beyond a fringe
format of storage and exchange for a
digital asset—Bitcoin—and broke into public
consciousness as a new way to share and
store information. While this technology is
still developing, its broad and far-reaching
applications are poised to impact a range of
industries. Though it’s not yet mainstream,
we will continue to monitor blockchain
technology as it matures in 2020. For that
reason, in this section we have outlined key
themes within blockchain and distributed
ledger technologies.

Blockchain technology is a method of shar-
ing and storing information on a distributed
ledger where identities and transactions
are cryptographically protected. At its core,
blockchain enables multiple parties to agree
on a single source of collective truth without
Blockchain technology is a method of sharing and storing information on a distributed ledger.
having to trust one another individually. In
theory, blockchain reduces the need for

intermediaries such as banks to coordinate make purchases or investments, to facilitate tional transactions in the form of textual markets. Miners compete against each other
or verify transactions. Blockchains fall under transactions, or to reward work that benefits edits—are verified by a central authority—in to verify transactions. Once a miner verifies
the umbrella of distributed ledger technol- the network. Most people have heard about this case Google and Wikipedia, respective- a set of transactions, or a “block,” the node
ogies, a new family of technologies that are “bitcoins.” These are units of cryptocurrency ly. Blockchain systems replace the central broadcasts the new block to the entire
enabling radical advancements in the fields in the Bitcoin network. administrators with consensus algorithms network. If the majority of the network
of data sharing and data management. and network miners. agrees the block is valid, it is cryptographi-
Where Is “The Blockchain,” Exactly?
cally added to the existing chain of blocks or
Let’s assume we have a network of 100
WHY IT MATTERS There isn’t just one blockchain. In fact, there “blockchain,” which forms the ledger. Miners
individual nodes (individual computers or
Blockchain technology offers enormous op- are different types: private, public, and fed- then can work on the next block.
clusters of computers) running a blockchain
portunity to protect data, safeguard privacy, erated. (This is similar to how there isn’t just
ledger. In a public blockchain, every node
build trust in supply chains, and to automate one “internet”—there is internet architec- Can Blockchains Get Hacked Easily?
has access to see the full ledger because the
transactions across numerous industries. ture and protocols, but there are different Not in the traditional way. Since it is im-
ledger is distributed. No single node controls
versions, networks, repositories, sites, possible to predict which miner will verify
the network, and all nodes have the oppor-
and services based all around the world.) the next transaction, it is nearly impossible
 DEEPER DIVE tunity to verify transactions, in exchange
Blockchains can be started by individuals, to collude against, attack or defraud the
What’s the Difference Between for a reward. This is generally referred to
companies, or consortiums, and they live on network. The network is secure as long as
a Blockchain, a Token, and a as “mining.” The more nodes that choose
multiple machines simultaneously. They can miners act independently of one another.
to become miners, the more the network is
Cryptocurrency? run on different protocols just like mobile However some clever hackers know that it’s
decentralized. As a reward for their efforts,
The term “blockchain” refers to a specif- phones can run on different operating sys- possible to manipulate a network by doing
every miner that verifies a block of trans-
ic type of data architecture—often in the tems. There is no singular place where “the more of the work than anyone else. One
actions wins a block reward—this is repre-
context of a network or an ecosystem. It’s on blockchain” is hosted. known method of attack is to control greater
sented by a cryptocurrency unit or a token.
the blockchain where transactions occur. Miners can be anyone: people who want to than 51% of the mining activity. Believe it or
How Does It Work?
“Tokens” or “cryptocurrencies” can be part of help build the infrastructure, startups with not, this has happened in the past—in 2019
a blockchain network: They represent units Imagine editing a Google Doc or a Wikipedia hackers took control of the Ethereum Clas-
spare computing resources, or even huge
of value. They can be traded or spent to article. These are distributed systems where sic blockchain with a 51% attack.
investment banks looking to get into crypto
transactions—in these examples, informa-
323
Blockchain cont.
A Very Brief History of Blockchains million in 2014. An ICO is similar in some

(With Caveats) ways to an Initial Public Offering, but instead
of shares in a company, investors receive
The concept of blockchains was first intro-
tokens which may or may not eventually be
duced in 2008 when a person or group of
of some value or use in the digital ecosystem
people under the name Satoshi Nakamoto
that the money is being raised to develop. In
published the seminal paper, “Bitcoin: a Peer
2017, more than 400 ICOs raised $5.6 billion.
to Peer Electronic Cash System.” To this
day, it’s still not clear who Satashi Nakamoto The year 2018 was dubbed the “crypto
really is, whether or not they are Japanese, winter,” because the total market cap of
and what their true motivations were in cryptocurrencies fell by 85% over the course
helping get blockchains started in the real of 12 months. Despite the bear market,
world. finance, tech, and retail heavyweights like
Fidelity, IBM, Facebook, Google, Microsoft,
It took several years for the information
Amazon, and Walmart all made significant
in the paper to evolve from an interest-
investments in the industry. Bank of Amer-
ing concept to usable code at scale. But
ica, Mastercard, and IBM collectively owned
once Bitcoin gained recognition as the
more than 100 blockchain-related patents.
first cryptocurrency, other versions soon
followed. In 2015, Canadian computer pro- Opportunities and Challenges
grammer Vitalik Buterin released Ethereum,
Blockchain is still a nascent technology, and
a blockchain-based protocol that allowed
many challenges must be addressed before
for more sophisticated functionality in the
it can reach mass adoption—namely speed,
form of smart contracts, or self-executing
scale, and regulation.
In 2008 a person or group of people using the name “Satoshi Nakamoto” published agreements, the terms of which are written
the seminal paper “Bitcoin: a Peer to Peer Electronic Cash System” and launched the directly into lines of code. Ethereum was the Decentralized systems are inherently less
Bitcoin movement. first blockchain project to fundraise through efficient than centralized systems, and there
an “Initial Coin Offering” or ICO, raising $19 are trade-offs between security and scale.

Bitcoin and Ethereum process between services, blockchains are proving their use
three and six transactions per second, while in wider contexts where authentication mat-
Visa processes thousands of transactions ters. Many different industries are building
in the same amount of time. As systems new applications and uses for blockchain
improve, this is changing—but there’s still a technology. We are paying close attention to
long way to go. what’s happening in professional services,
commercial real estate, financial services,
However, the bigger challenge is likely to be
supply chain management, logistics, health-
regulatory. The fate of blockchains, cryp-
care, and identity management.
tocurrencies, and tokens is uncertain, to
say the least. In the U.S., the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC), congressional
offices, and local state governments all have
specific and, at times, conflicting policies
related to blockchains and cryptoassets. In
fact, the SEC still does not have a regula-
tory framework ready for use in the crypto
domain. In the summer of 2019, the Internal
Revenue Service caused a mini-shockwave
when it sent out 10,000 warning letters
to the owners of cryptocurrencies. Some
believe it may be a similar effort the agency
took when it went after Swiss banks a few
years ago, rooting out financial hideouts for
Blockchain is still a nascent technology, and many challenges must be addressed before it
people avoiding taxes.
can reach mass adoption—namely speed, scale, and regulation.
While the primary use cases for blockchain
technology evolved in the field of financial
325
How to Speak Blockchain
 51% Attack  Blockchain  Ethereum

A hypothetical attack on a blockchain in A new distributed system to share and store The second largest coin by market cap, after
which an affiliated group of miners working information in which transaction and identi- Bitcoin. It was introduced in 2015 by Vitalik
collectively controls more that 50% of the ties are cryptographically secured. Block- Buterin, and is abbreviated on exchanges
network's mining power. These miners could chains are a subset of distributed ledger as ETH.
collude to verify fraudulent transactions. technologies (DLTs). Bitcoin, Ethereum, and
 Fiat
Litecoin are some of the more prominent
 Altcoin Government-issued currency.
examples of blockchain networks.
Any blockchain-based coin or asset other
 Fork
than Bitcoin.  Cold Storage
The splitting of a single blockchain into
The practice of storing a digital "wallet" or
 Bitcoin two blockchains—identical up to the point
private keys offline, on a piece of hardware
The first cryptocurrency, mined, stored, and of the split, but differing from that point
not connected to the internet.
exchanged on the first blockchain. It was forward—on different parts of the network.
introduced in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto,  Cryptocurrency Forks can be accidental or intentional,
and is abbreviated on exchanges as BTC. A crypto-asset typically designed to func- temporary or permanent, and are often the
tion as money, or a medium of exchange. subject of dispute. They can be the result
 Block Height
Cryptocurrencies' value fluctuates depend- of software upgrades or governance deci-
The number of blocks preceding a partic-
ing on demand and supply, similar to tradi- sions that nodes refuse to acknowledge or
ular block. The first block on a blockchain,
tional currency in the global economy. forget to install.
referred to as the genesis block, has a block
height of zero.  DAO  Fork; Hard Fork
A decentralized autonomous organiza- A software update on a blockchain protocol
 Block Rewards
tion. Many coins use DAOs as a form of that is not backward compatible, creating a
Tokens distributed by the network to the
governance and decision-making among separate blockchain. Ethereum's hard fork
miner or group of miners that verifies a
the network. resulted in Ethereum and Ethereum Classic.
particular block. Block rewards are differ-
ent from mining fees and tips, which are  Dapp  Fork; Soft Fork
distributed by individuals (as opposed to the Decentralized applications run on block- A software update on a blockchain proto-
network) to incentivize miners to verify their chain platforms. col that is backward compatible with older
transactions first. versions.

 FUD  HODL “anti-money laundering.” KYC/AML require- to-asset.
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt, often used in Misspelling of the word "hold"—a term used ments are used by many financial service
 Smart Contracts
the context of blockchains. by crypto investors to describe keeping providers to confirm the identity of their
Self-enforcing agreements, issued on a
coins despite market volatility and price customers and detect illicit and criminal
 Full Node blockchain, the terms of which are built
crashes. activity in their networks.
A node on the network that can act as directly into the code.
a miner, verifying transactions on the  Hot Storage  Light Node
 Solidity
blockchain. The practice of storing a digital "wallet" A node on the network that can transact
A programming language invented by Vitalik
or private keys online, usually within an with other nodes but cannot verify transac-
 Governance Buterin for smart contracts on Ethereum.
application or exchange connected to the tions.
Set rules that govern the blockchain pro-
internet—examples include Poloniex, Coin-  Stablecoin
tocol. Governance structures can include  Mempool
base, and Bittrex. A cryptocurrency that is valued relative to a
on-chain rules like smart contracts and The aggregate number and size of uncon-
“stable” asset or basket of assets, whether
code specifications and off-chain rules like  ICO firmed transactions on a blockchain.
another cryptocurrency, fiat money, or
those designating a board of directors and An initial coin offering, or IOC, is similar in
 PoW PoS commodities.
annual meetings. some ways to an Initial Public Offering, but
Acronyms for Proof of Work and Proof of
instead of shares in a company, investors  Token
 Hash Pointer Stake, mechanisms that blockchain proto-
receive tokens which may or may not even- A digital identity for something that can be
Unique alphanumeric strings linking blocks cols use to choose the miner that gets to
tually be of some value or use in the digital owned.
in the chain together with a one way math produce the next block.
ecosystem that the money is being raised to TPS
function. 
develop.  Public Key + Private Key
An acronym for Transactions Per Second,
 Hashing A type of cryptography (similar to the meth-
 Immutability a measure used to compare the speeds of
A one-way math function that takes any od used in credit cards) for managing iden-
A primary characteristic of blockchains, different blockchains.
input and produces a unique alphanumeric tities in the form of alphanumeric addresses
this is the quality of a record of transactions Wallet
string. It's used in blockchain technology to used to send and receive transactions. 
being unchangeable, a quality that prevents A file that contains a collection of private
condense information into blocks, and it's
"back-dating" in record keeping. Sometimes  SHA256
useful for assigning any digital file or asset keys.
referred to as digital granite. The cryptographic hash algorithm used in
with a unique identifier.  Whitepaper
most blockchains.
 KYC/AML A technical paper outlining the governance,
An acronym for “know your customer” and  Shilling
protocol and features of a project.
Aggressively promoting a coin or cryp-
327
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Digital Citizenship
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight dence in the country. While Estonia’s digital What’s Next
citizenship is an example of positive gov-
Blockchain is being used to facilitate a new In democratic countries with protections
ernment innovation, other countries have
kind of digital citizenship in some countries. for individual freedoms and rights, digital
introduced more controversial initiatives.
citizenship can usher in a new age of inno-
Why It Matters Some 15 million Venezuelans allegedly have vation and improved public services.
Governments are expanding the definition a “Carnet de la Patria” or a Fatherland Card,
of digital citizenship with surveillance which was developed by Chinese telecom The Impact
programs such as social credit scores and giant ZTE. Under the dictatorship of Nicolás Many authoritarian and totalitarian regimes
government-issued IDs that track every- Maduro, the country rolled out the cards are also eager to adopt these technologies
thing from voting records to state pensions. four years ago, requiring Venezuelans to use as well to maintain control and concentrate
One of Venezuela’s digital citizenship cards. this card to access government services, power.
Examples pensions, and food stamps. The card also
Estonia, a small northern European country

tracks voting records and party registration. Watchlist
of 1.3 million, was the first nation to move Where does blockchain fit into all of this? Voatz, Utah, West Virginia, the governments
most of its government services fully Estonia incorporates distributed ledger of China, Estonia, and Venezuela, voting
online 16 years ago. From taxes, to voting, technology in many of its digital citizenship commissions worldwide.
to healthcare, Estonia has created myriad services. In the U.S., one startup called
digital tools to serve its citizens. In 2017, Voatz is applying blockchain technology to
in an effort to attract more entrepreneurs voting. In 2018, Voatz conducted a pilot pro-
and tech talent, Estonia began piloting gram with the government of West Virginia
a beta digital citizenship program (along in which 144 Americans living in 31 countries
with financial benefits such as favorable overseas cast ballots in the November mid-
tax breaks) without requiring a physical resi- term elections.

SCENARIO • ELENA GIRALT DIGITAL CITIZENSHIP
In the next 10 years, blockchain technology advances enough to support key functions of citizenship, including identifi-
cation cards, driver licenses, and voting. But these innovations are met with public distrust, and a lack of political coordi-
nation to effectively implement these blockchain applications. Communities define themselves by how “smart” they are
(whether they embrace new technologies, such as automation, security, grid management, and more) or how “human” they
are (whether they’re unplugged, have internet-free zones and honor the right to digital invisibility).
Blockchain Empowers Democracies Blockchain Empowers Authoritarian

Regimes
MID-FUTURE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO MID-FUTURE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
In stable democracies, digital citizenship starts with the mundane, such Blockchain evolves as a technology that makes it easier to track citizens and
as e-passports and virtual jury duty, and then gradually grows into more abuse power. Canada, Estonia, and India all launch massive digital identity
complicated systems like voting. Pilot tests continue for blockchain voting programs for their citizens; some are voluntary opt-in programs, others are
startups like Voatz in large counties and districts. These pilots target small compulsory programs like the Aadhaar program in India. Once these digital
groups such as the homebound elderly and active military stationed over- citizenship programs are in place, it becomes hard to ensure that citizens
seas, and eventually scale to wider populations. Voting processes are the maintain some GDPR-era digital rights, such as the right to be forgotten.
primary indicator of a fully digitally engaged civic community, although it
takes more than a generation to see a widespread shift to digital and decen- China and Russia establish large scale citizen surveillance programs, and
tralized systems. they export them to countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
Venezuela launches a botched cryptocurrency. While it’s ridiculed in the
Eventually, governments apply open-source algorithms and machine learn- crypto community, it’s a sign of things to come. Iran follows suit with plans to
ing to other tasks, including balancing the budget and determining where launch a sovereign-backed cryptocurrency. China, which initially outlawed
to build new roads. Citizens will, in the words of Bitcoin maximalist Anthony cryptocurrencies, develops its own national cryptocurrency that can only be
Pompliano, “trust the governance of algorithms over the governance of used by its preferred trading partners.
humans.”
While the blockchain and Web 3.0 promised decentralization of power, in
Open-source technology and publicly-funded initiatives, like municipal reality influence in these networks concentrates within two parties: the de-
internet projects, gain traction despite a few high profile failures. Govern- velopers who write the code for core protocols and the miners who validate
ments pass data security and data sharing restrictions on any public-private transactions. The number of people who can contribute to open-source
partnerships to prevent corporations from harvesting data to further com- blockchain projects is tiny relative to the potential size of the networks. Cor-
mercial interests. Open-source tools for government and civic life increase porations and governments with majority control of either the miners or the
transparency and efficiency in government processes and usher in an era of developers manipulate the system and rewrite the rules on their own terms.
more connected and civically engaged communities.
329
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Self-Sovereign Identity
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight management: self-sovereign identity, a using phishing emails and personally iden- like Google and Facebook to consider this
system in which the user is central to the tifiable information (PII) to reset passwords trend because of rising data breaches and
Identity management systems have seen a
administration of her data and owns her and break into accounts. security hacks that impact users. Identity
gradual evolution from government issued
data outright. It is interoperable and trans- In 2019, Microsoft launched Identity Overlay is closely tied to data, which means these
IDs to email providers and social media
portable across applications, devices, and Network (ION), a decentralized identi- businesses must consider a business model
accounts.
platforms. ty solution. It’s a collaboration between shift if self-sovereign identity solutions
Why It Matters the Decentralized Identity Foundation, become widely adopted.
Self-sovereign identity has two prima-
ry benefits. There’s increased security, IBM, Aetna, Mastercard, and Accenture.
The average person uses between 27 and The Impact
130 unique online accounts. Companies because decentralized identity solutions, in Samsung has also created a decentralized
theory, are much harder to hack. And there’s identity project with a consortium of South Since interoperability is a defining feature of
like Google, Yahoo, and Facebook built
also increased control; because an individ- Korean enterprises. decentralized identities, companies should
their business models on managing troves
ual manages her identity, she owns her data look for partners instead of attempting to
of data on behalf of their users, but users
and can therefore decide what information What’s Next launch an identity product on their own.
suffered from large-scale security breach-
es. Case in point: The Yahoo hack impacted to share and with whom—and, hypothet- Self-sovereign identity will likely be adopted
Watchlist
every single one of its 3 billion accounts. ically, how to monetize it. Self-sovereign in phases. The Brave Browser, for instance,
identity is a trend that touches on paywalls, gives users more control over their data Aetna, Accenture, AdEx, Brave Browser,
Last year alone saw 15 high profile data
authentication, and royalty tracking, as well as they surf the web. While not a “self-sov- Comcast, Decentralized Identity Founda-
breaches affecting 2 billion accounts across
as digital advertising. ereign identity” platform, the Brave model tion, Facebook, Google, IBM, Mastercard,
government, healthcare, finance, and tech-
illustrates how users could capitalize on Microsoft, Netflix, Spotify, Samsung, UPort.
nology sectors involving organizations like Identity systems help individuals validate
Facebook, CapitalOne, Singapore’s Ministry reputation, manage risk, and gain access their data if they had more control over their
of Health, and Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency. to groups. Many rely on third-party “identity digital identities. With Brave, users get paid
providers” such as governments, Facebook, 70% of the ad revenue from the ads they
Examples or Google. Digital identity management has watch and they can then choose to share
Blockchains and distributed ledger technol- been a central point of vulnerability for indi- their identities with the sites they visit—for
ogies introduced a new approach to identity viduals and corporations alike, with hackers not. There’s strong incentive for businesses

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Web 3.0
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Github. Some collaborations pushed our media protocol that facilitates decentral- The Impact
imagination beyond what we thought was ized file-sharing and cloud computing. All
2019 marked the 30th anniversary of the With web 3.0, web browsers and mobile
possible, like Reddit’s April Fool’s Day 2017 this is possible because of what Joel Mone-
world wide web. Decentralization and col- applications can perform more complex
experiment or Google’s six-month Quick gro from Union Square Ventures described
laboration are driving its next iteration. processes and enable transactions that
Draw Doodling game. as the “fat protocol layer.” Web protocol
were previously not possible. In this new
Why it Matters layer is part of the full internet stack. “Full
With Web 3.0—in certain contexts referred iteration of the internet, media companies
stack” refers to every stage of the comput-
to as the Semantic Web—collaboration and could potentially set up micropayment sys-
Just as cloud computing revolutionized er programming/ web developers tool kit:
decentralized creation is accelerated for tems or give users more control over their
how businesses manage and store informa- front end (UX, design, HTML, Java, CSS) to
two reasons. First, gathering and under- privacy and data.
tion, blockchain will enable a new wave of back end (servers, databases, APIs, Python,
standing unstructured data will be much
innovation for information technology and Ruby). The internet stack has application Watchlist
easier with advanced techniques in data
databases. Distributed ledgers can encour- layers and protocol layers.
mining, natural language processing (NLP), Blockstack, Lightning Labs, RSK.
age massive collaboration on a larger scale
and text analytics. Second, machines will be In web 2.0, most of the value rested in the
and usher in Web 3.0.
able to collaborate directly with one another application layer, with little variability in the
through artificial intelligence and machine protocol layer. Examples of the most com-
Examples
learning. Eventually, machines will be able mon protocols are HTTP used by browsers
The internet is always evolving. So far, it to teach one another as well. and SMTP and IMAP is used by email-clients.
has seen three major waves of innovation.
Such projects are already underway. In
Web 1.0, the beginning of the internet age, What’s Next
media, Otoy is cutting the costs of 3D visual
introduced static web pages, e-commerce,
effects production with a decentralized, In web 3.0, protocols and platforms may
and email. Web 2.0 enabled decentralized
distributed network of partners that can have much more potential for value creation,
collaboration and creativity by ushering in
chip in spare processing power with a digital hence a larger protocol layer. Companies
social networks, sharing economies, cloud The Interplanetary File System (IPFS) is
token known as RNDR. The Interplanetary like Blockstack, Lightning Labs and RSK are
computing, and dynamic self-sustaining a peer-to-peer hypermedia protocol that
File System (IPFS) is a peer-to-peer hyper- building layer 2 networking products.
content repositories like Wikipedia and facilitates decentralized file-sharing and
cloud computing.
331
Making Money While You Sleep

NEAR-FUTURE NEUTRAL SCENARIO
Imagine getting into bed tonight and plugging your phone into its
charger on your nightstand like always. You set the alarm, and just
before sleep, you start up a special app—one that invites hackers
to take over your phone. It isn’t a dream—but it isn’t a nightmare
either. It’s the future of the gig economy.
In the coming years, you’re going to hear a lot about our new
decentralized sharing economy. It’s a clever way of distributing
computing power over a wide network for a variety of tasks, which
range from performing mathematical computations to mining for
cryptocurrencies. All you need to get started is to install what we
call “gigware.” It’s a benevolent use for the same kind of malware a
hacker relies on to break into your computers and phones—except
that it generates a tangible benefit, whether you’re a company
or individual user. Think of it as the next evolution of the sharing
economy, powered by artificial intelligence.
At the moment, there are nearly four billion internet users spread
around the world, and each of us owns three devices on average.
That means there’s a gigantic pool of processing power sitting
dormant at any given time.
Gigware is like Airbnb for your computers and phones. It will

someday allow third-party businesses to use your smartphones
and computers in exchange for credits or real money you can
spend elsewhere. And because the systems are distributed and
decentralized, private data is safeguarded.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Tokenizing Value
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight underlying theory of using digital tokens to What’s Next

represent real-world assets is gaining trac-
In the context of blockchain technology, to- Asset tokenization and token economies are
tion. Louis Vuitton and DeBeers launched
kenization refers to the representation of a based on mostly theoretical models. During
blockchain platforms to combat coun-
real-world asset or value with a digital token. the next five years, these networks will pilot
terfeiting of luxury goods, and Nike has a
These digital tokens carry the unique prop- and test different approaches to find the
patent for tokenizing sneakers. The National
erty of “digital scarcity,” meaning that tokens best product-market fit.
Basketball Association rejected Brooklyn
cannot be counterfeited or duplicated.
Nets player Spencer Dinwiddie’s attempt The Impact
Why It matters to tokenize his contract to investors and
Eventually asset tokenization could shift
fans. Companies are exploring ways to use
In theory, asset tokenization allows busi- how we represent real-world assets in
their own tokens to capitalize on differ-
The Basic Attention Token compensates nesses to reduce the friction associated everyday transactions.
ent business models and incentivize user
internet users for their attention to ads. with buying and selling securities to a great-
behavior. The Brave Browser allows users to
er network of investors. Watchlist
earn tokens—called BAT, or Basic Attention
Token—based on the ads they watch. Althea Althea, Blockstack, Brave, Debeers, Helium,
Examples Louis Vitton, Nike, NBA.
is a startup using mesh networks to bring
Buzz around this trend started during the internet to rural and underserved communi-
initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2017, when ties using a system in which routers pay one
startups raised millions of dollars in capital another for bandwidth using, you guessed
by tokenizing equity of their company it, digital tokens. Helium pays customers in
or utility of their networks. While many tokens to run internet hotspots and provide
of those ICOs proved unsuccessful, the wireless coverage for smart scooters, bikes,
and other IoT devices.
333
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Tokens For Smart Royalties
STRATEGY NOW
and Freelancers REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Music, this initiative is focused on devel- What’s Next The Impact
oping standardized open-source protocols
Blockchain networks like Ethereum offer Ownership of digital assets is evolving, with Musicians may well be the first to publish
and APIs for the music industry. Blockchain
new ways to track ownership and licensing a growing movement in favor of content cre- content on platforms with smart contracts
is a key part of the strategy. Meanwhile, the
for content through smart contracts. ators holding the rights to their content. In that remove intermediaries such as manage-
KODAKOne platform helps photographers
Europe, for example, GDPR legislation gives ment and distribution companies. This could
Why It Matters manage the digital rights of images using
people greater ownership rights over the prove successful because of enduring con-
blockchain technology. The platform works
Smart contracts are self-executing agree- data they create, no matter what platform sumer demand for music and the promise of
by recording ownership and creation of the
ments in which the terms of the agreement it is created on. We expect an increased more revenue for artists. News platforms will
images on a blockchain ledger, and then a
are directly written into lines of code. In demand for platforms that honor this owner- be fast followers, specifically for video and
web crawling service scans websites to see
the music industry, for example, a smart ship model, and also those that compensate photo libraries—but they may struggle,be-
if a copyrighted image is being used.
contract could entail that every time a song creators for the engagement they drive cause journalists tend to have more elastic
is streamed, a small amount of money would News and media organizations may also on the platform—a shift that would affect followings than musicians or other artists.
be automatically sent to the artist from the have new opportunities to use smart con- creatives like musicians, photographers, Regardless, there will likely be changes in
listener. tracts, digital intellectual property rights videographers, writers, and others. methods of digital ownership and licensing
structures, and micro payments—and po- playing out across all creative industries.
The change in ownership rights would be the
Examples tentially revisit an economic model adopted
equivalent of Instagram directly paying pop-
by the news services on CompuServe in Watchlist
Blockchains like Ethereum form the founda- ular content creators to host them on their
the 1980s. In that news structure, readers Associated Press, Ethereum, Getty, Koda-
tional infrastructure layer for new, low-fric- platform—it’s a departure from the current
paid per view for articles, including paying kOne, Mycelia, Open Music Initiative, Reu-
tion ways to automate royalty payments for model, in which Instagram does not need to
extra for images. At the time, CompuServe ters, Facebook, IBM, IDEO, IHEARTRADIO,
digital intellectual property. The Open Music pay content creators, ostensibly because
offered high quality journalism that was Netflix, Pandora, Sony, Spotify, the Berklee
Initiative (OMI) is a nonprofit consortium of the free service the platform provides.
easier to access and navigate. Ultimately School of Music.
with members such as Facebook, IBM, IDEO, Instead, content creators are paid by brands
the service failed because of the arrival of
IHEARTRADIO, Netflix, Pandora, Sony, and that want access to the creators’ followers.
free, high quality journalism and free search
Spotify. Based out of the Berklee School of
services such as Google and AOL.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Immutable Content
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight cannot be changed without changing all The Impact

records across most users. A distribution
Decentralized platforms for content will give As misinformation continues to spread,
channel leveraging blockchain technology
more control to the people who originally immutable content could help restore the
could make it more difficult to censor and
created it, whether it be a social media public’s trust.
limit access to information. Content creators
post or a public speech. Think of this trend
could use distribution channels that can Watchlist
as a new way to build trust around critical
guarantee that their content does not get
information. Agora, Decent, Ethereum, Facebook,
altered, filtered or blocked by a third party.
Internet Archive, reddit, Twitter, WikiLeaks,
Why It Matters
What’s Next WordPress.
Those political truth-o-meters that have
We will soon have the ability to leverage
Misinformation can be curtailed with become popular around the world in the past
blockchain-based platforms that can guar-
blockchain technology. few years may soon be a thing of the past.
antee our content does not get manipulated
That’s because blockchain technology allows
or censored en route to its end consum-
for the creation of a distributed immutable
ers. Information archives or distribution
record of information, which means that in-
companies—something akin to WikiLeaks,
formation can never be deleted or modified;
for example—will be able to disseminate
taken out of context, sure—but not twisted
information using a distributed system by
or changed into something different.
recording the information on a blockchain
Examples ledger similar to Bitcoin’s. The blockchain
would also ensure that the information does
Decentralized platforms for content pave
not become inaccessible if the host servers
the way for information to be recorded and
are disconnected.
distributed in a way that is visible to all and
335
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Content Provenance and
STRATEGY NOW
Permanent Archiving REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight In an increasingly digital world, permanent The Impact

archives are difficult to maintain for small
Blockchains can be used as a universal Blockchain-based tools could prove critical
newsrooms and large media companies
index of content authorship and edits. in efforts to restore order and reliability to
alike. The Wayback Machine is a nonprofit
online records and information, which has
Why It Matters that started in 2001 with a mission to digi-
become increasingly challenging as the
tally archive the world wide web. Despite ar-
Blockchain technology enables the creation internet has evolved.
chival efforts such as these, information on
of a shared permanent ledger where noth-
the internet is routinely deleted or censored Watchlist
ing can be deleted. Because of this, adding
by large corporations and governments.
original content or an index to the original Associated Press, Internet Archive, New
In 2018, Chinese activist Yue Xin at Peking In other initiatives, the New York Times is
content to the blockchain is a way that jour- York Times, Washington Post, WikiLeaks,
University used the Ethereum blockchain exploring blockchain as a way to combat
nalists can make their content permanent WordPress.
to publish her letter detailing a pattern misinformation, and The News Provenance
and traceable.
of abuse and intimidation from school
Project is a project to help the public better
administrators. Her letter had been
routinely censored from social media sites
Examples understand the origins of journalistic
content and detect when images and videos
like WeChat. In 2018, Chinese activist Yue Xin at Peking
have been doctored or manipulated.
University used the Ethereum blockchain
to publish a letter that detailed a pattern
What’s Next
of abuse and intimidation from school
administrators. Her letter had been rou- We will see increasing experimentation
tinely censored from social media sites like with blockchain as a method of verifying the
WeChat. Her actions illustrated how to use origins and unaltered condition of the con-
blockchain to permanently archive content tent users consume online, and as a secure
that would otherwise be subject to censor- method of archiving.
ship or suppression. Other Chinese activists
have since followed her example.

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Distributed Computing For a Cause
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight able and monetizable asset. For instance, Watchlist

the Golem network was built upon the
Distributed computing is a process in which Apple, Android, AWS, Golem.network,
Ethereum blockchain and lets people rent
large computer problems are broken down Google, GridCoin, Intel, Microsoft, Monero,
out idle computing resources like storage,
into smaller segments that can be calculat- Samsung, SONM, ISPs and wireless carriers
processing power, or bandwidth to render
ed on multiple standard computers, instead worldwide.
computer-generated images, conduct DNA
of on centralized supercomputers.
analysis, and tackle machine learning tasks.
Why It Matters GridCoin is another blockchain-based dis-
The Golem network is a distributed tributed computing platform providing re-
computing system that pools resources With distributed computing technology, peo-
sources to philanthropic scientific research.
across many devices for shared projects ple can donate idle processor time on their
and tasks. personal laptops, cell phones, and other What’s Next
digital devices in support of certain causes
Expect to see more platforms that monetize
or to help solve socially relevant problems.
idle computer resources, allowing con-
Examples sumers to earn income from underutilized
resources that they already own.
Folding@home is a distributed comput-
ing project for disease research that was The Impact
launched in 2000. Consumers donated idle
Distributed computing systems will drive
processing power on their computers, Play-
down prices for developers and those who
Station 3s, and some Sony smartphones to
need greater processing power, and provide
power the scientific research.
the average device owner with a new source
Since then, a number of other similar proj- of income and a novel way to support pur-
ects have popped up, demonstrating how pose-driven initiatives.
idle computer resources can become a valu-
337
29 Financial
Technologies
& Cryptocurrencies
340 Tech Companies
Acting Like Banks
341 Financial Inclusion
342 The Rise of Quant Funds
343 Regulating Open Banking
344 Social Payments
345 Countries Creating Digital
Decentralized Currencies
346 Automated Credit
Risk Modeling
346 Crypto Trading Bots
346 Crypto-Mining Malware
339
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Tech Companies Acting Like Banks
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight via WhatsApp. That will be separate from scanning or by tapping their phones against
Facebook’s new Calibra project, an attempt a computer screen. As a result, those
Big tech companies are building new ser-
to build a digital wallet and standardized consumers are paying twice: once with the
vices and tools for banking.
infrastructure for cryptocurrencies. And, of money in their bank accounts, and once
Why It Matters course, there is Libra, Facebook’s con- again with their personal data. Regulators in
troversial global cryptocurrency network. the U.S. and the European Union, however,
In the near-future, the value of our everyday
There's a good reason tech companies are are currently debating whether to keep big
financial transactions will be eclipsed by the
moving swiftly into fintech: Our transac- tech out of finance.
value of our data itself.
tions not only offer new streams of revenue,
but our sensitive personal data can be used The Impact
Examples
to better understand our financial behavior. Big tech companies have made payments
In 2019 Apple launched its Apple Card, In 2020, Google will begin offering checking Knowing how, when, and why we’ll spend easier, and this will put pressure on tradi-
a credit card backed by the Mastercard accounts. Apple has launched a credit card money gives these companies a signifi- tional companies to upgrade their products,
payment network. service with no late fees, and no wait to cant advantage in marketing products and customer service, and terms. It’s possible
qualify—notably, the service is optimized for services to us, and strategically targeting us the entire consumer banking industry could
use with iPhones and Apple Watches, rather with ads. be disrupted before long.
than a physical card. Uber Money is building
a bank for Uber drivers. Amazon, which What’s Next Watchlist
already offers branded rewards credit card
To understand the future of big tech’s role Alibaba, Amazon, Ant Financial, Apple, Citi,
in partnership with Visa and Chase on Am-
in financial services, look to China, where Chase, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, Google,
azon.com, is reportedly looking into its own
payment apps provided by Ant Financial— Mastercard, Square, Stripe, Tencent, Uber,
checking account service. Facebook made
the banking arm of Alibaba—are now ubiq- Venmo, Visa.
headlines throughout 2019 for its foray into
uitous. Cash is quickly falling out of favor,
payments: It announced Facebook Pay, a
and so are physical cards as many people in
system to transfer money to other users
China and beyond now pay using biometric

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Financial Inclusion
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight Examples What’s Next financial services and systems. Digital and
mobile payments, meanwhile, continue to
It is no accident that Facebook’s Libra posi- It’s not just financial services vying to unlock The role of a traditional financial institu-
grow with promising pilot programs that
tions itself as a global cryptocurrency built the underbanked market. Mega-retailers tion is changing, and digital currencies are
leverage cryptocurrencies for remittances
to promote financial inclusion, a term used like Walmart and Alibaba offer financial often cited as an opportunity for increased
and humanitarian aid.
to describe equitable access to affordable products to their customers. Latin America financial inclusion. Kenya-based AZA
financial services for the widest popula- and India will be two markets to watch close- Finance allows cross-border payments and Watchlist
tion possible. In theory that population ly for innovation in financial inclusion. The aims to cut the time and costs of those
Afluenta, Alibaba, American Express, Ant
includes those who are currently not served Reserve Bank of India took such measures payments inside Africa and other frontier
Financial, AZA Group, Capital One, Carrefour,
or minimally served by financial institu- as licensing telcos as payment banks and markets. In established markets, people are
Center for Financial Inclusion, Citi, Face-
tions, often referred to as the unbanked or instituting national standards for payment saving less and in some cases sidestepping
book, Falabella, FICO, GoBank, IMF, Key Bank,
underbanked. Financial inclusion is more software. The result has been dramatic banks entirely thanks to the gig economy,
JPMorgan Chase, mPesa, Ripio, TDBank,
than a positive social impact story, it’s a advancements in digital payments. Amazon, uncertain geopolitical conditions, and the
The United Services Automobile Association
forward-looking customer acquisition strat- Samsung, Facebook, and Google all have rising cost of living. In emerging markets,
(USAA), Visa, Walmart, Wells Fargo.
egy and subsequent business model in an products that are compatible with unified mobile payments and remittances hold
increasingly competitive global economy. payment interfaces (UPIs, India’s mobile-op- huge potential due to more internet and cell
timized payments system), and Indian mobile phone penetration. But financial inclusion
Why It Matters e-commerce company Paytm now boasts a is not just about getting users an app. The
Traditional financial institutions are facing $16 billion valuation. The Center for Finan- most successful companies build products
competition and disruption from agile cial Inclusion ranks Colombia, Peru, and that also bridge a knowledge gap and inform
fintech companies and social platforms that Uruguay as the top three countries for finan- and empower users to be more financially
are integrating payments and other financial inclusion (India took the No. 4 spot). In literate.
cial features and services into their product those countries and others, Latin American
ecosystem. fintech companies are working to solve the The Impact
region’s most pressing problems, particular- Lack of financial education will continue to Digital currencies provide an opportunity
ly around inflation and remittances. be a barrier for people, excluding them from for increased financial inclusion.
341
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
The Rise of Quant Funds
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight managers—AQR Capital, Bridgewater, Two ing critical information or factors that might
Sigma—execute trades quickly and effi- have been excluded due to human error or
Quantitative hedge funds, also known as
ciently, and sometimes at lower costs than ignorance.
“quant funds,” have been around since the
non-algorithmic funds. The world’s best
1990s. These algorithm-powered funds The Impact
funds used to run primarily on human brain
follow factors set by humans, and they’re
power, but today A.I. is increasingly taking As quant funds advance to include more
taking over more of the U.S. stock market.
on a greater role in their data-driven trading machine-derived factors, there will be new
Why It Matters strategies. strategic advantages—and risks—for inves-
tors and fund managers.
The algorithms powering quant funds, like What’s Next
the humans who develop them, are vulnera- Watchlist
As A.I. systems become more sophisticat-
Quant funds use algorithms to buy and sell ble to inherent biases.
ed and powerful, quant fund investors are ARQ Capital, Bridgewater, Kensho, Man
stocks based on “factors,” asset features
determined to drive return and used to set Examples now asking computers not only to crunch Group, Renaissance, Two Sigma.
trading parameters. numbers and execute trades, but to identify
In 2017, quant funds became the dominant
the decision-making factors, too. While ma-
method of institutional trading in the U.S.
chines might surface entirely new criteria
Quant funds use algorithms to buy and sell
for trades, it’s important to note that the
stocks based on factors, such as quality and
human programmers who originally built
value, that help forecast performance over
those systems made choices about which
a given period of time. Some use machines
data to train and which algorithms to run.
to mimic previous human strategies, while
Those human decisions have downstream
others use generative adversarial networks
implications. Bias is a well-known problem
and advanced deep learning techniques
in the A.I. ecosystem, which means that
to create new strategies on their own. The
fund architects will need to redouble their
world’s largest algorithmic hedge fund
efforts to ensure their systems aren’t miss-

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Regulating Open Banking
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight available bank APIs in the European Union. productize data-driven insights. This would
The European regulation known as Payment likely be through personalized marketing
Financial data systems are becoming more
Service Directive Two (PSD2), which went and operating efficiencies, such as reducing
standardized and interoperable, facilitating
into effect in 2018, requires banks to enable fraud and chargeback rates.
access to banking infrastructure and analyt-
third parties to access a customer’s finan-
ics for third parties. The Impact
cial data. PSD2 lays the foundation for new
Why It Matters players to use financial transaction data to New standards will make it easier for vendor
improve analytics behind product develop- integration, compliance, reporting, and data
The European Union and the U.K. recently
ment, predictive analytics, fraud analysis, management.
passed laws requiring banks to create ap-
marketing, and a la carte services within an
plication programming interfaces (APIs) for Watchlist
ecosystem of providers.
In Europe, banks will soon be required to third-party developers. This should bring
create APIs for developers. American Express, BBVA, Banco Santander,
standardization to open banking and give What’s Next
Citi, Clear, European Union, Fidor, HSBC,
the E.U. and U.K. a competitive advantage
Regulation will change the ownership struc- Intuit, iZettle, Klarna, Lloyds, N26, Master-
over the U.S., which has no such laws on the
tures of financial data. Interoperability will card, Monzo, Open Banking Europe, Plum,
books.
make it easier for customers to aggregate Square, Visa, Wells Fargo.
Examples finances and choose a la carte services
from various providers to best suit their
In the E.U., a fintech company can access
needs. We expect disruptive fintech inno-
APIs by registering as an “account informa-
vators to build functionality that attracts a
tion service provider” (AISP) or “payment
critical mass of consumers, which will then
initiation service provider” (PISP). In Novem-
trigger large incumbents to seek partner-
ber 2019, Open Banking Europe, an initiative
ships or acquisitions. The most successful
operated by EBA Clearing subsidiary Preta,
players will be those who can get access
published a directory to list all publicly
to the richest data and can effectively
343
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Social Payments
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
L ATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight their transactions with a comment or separately from Calibra, the company’s
emoji, and could share publicly with whom digital wallet, and its Libra cryptocurrency
Financial service and payment providers are
they were transacting. China-based AliPay network. We expect to see more integra-
tapping into social interactions to facilitate
launched 15 years ago and now has amassed tions for social payment systems from the
financial transactions.
more than 870 million active users. Through big tech companies in 2020.
Why It Matters its financial partner, Ant Financial, AliPay
users get much more than emojis. They The Impact
As social payment offerings grow more
can access wealth management services, Government regulation for all major tech
robust, millennials may opt out of traditional
loan applications, and credit scores. Other companies is threatening to become more
banking services entirely.
popular peer-to-peer payment apps include stringent in the wake of data breaches, priva-
PayPal, Apple Pay, Square's Cash App, and cy concerns, rampant fraud, and claims of
Social platforms are a preferred method of Examples
Google Pay. The most advanced players antitrust violation. Social payment systems
payment in China. Late in 2018, Amazon worked to expand seek to embed seamless functionality into are a valuable way to transfer money, but
Amazon Pay from the digital-only space the customer experience, including chat they could face heightened scrutiny this year.
to physical brick-and-mortar gas stations applications. In the Chinese market, WeChat
and restaurants. The move coincided with and Alipay drive mobile payment, thanks to a Watchlist
a rollout of new cashless (and cashierless) highly developed network of merchants that Alibaba, Amazon, Ant Financial, Apple,
Amazon Go stores. While Amazon’s sys- now accept chat-based payments. These Baidu, Facebook, Google, Mastercard, Mic-
tem is new, the digital wallet model isn’t, apps blur the lines between sending money rosoft, PayPal, Tencent, Visa, WeChat.
and consumers now prefer convenience to a friend versus sending money to a store.
to traditional point-of-sale transactions.
Venmo launched nine years ago as one of What’s Next
the first social payment apps in the U.S.,
Late in 2019, Facebook launched Facebook
and incorporated social features into its
Pay for WhatsApp, Instagram, and Face-
interface. Users were required to caption
book Messenger—Facebook Pay exists

ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Countries Creating Digital
STRATEGY NOW
Decentralized Currencies REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
Key Insight What’s Next Watchlist

Countries including China and Sweden One of the hot topics at the 2020 annual Bank of International Settlements, central
are researching how to develop their own World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzer- banks worldwide, the World Economic
decentralized currencies. land was the rise of central bank digital cur- Forum.
rencies (CBDCs). At the close of the confer-
Why It Matters ence, WEF published a policy-maker toolkit
The global monetary system is currently designed to help central banks investigate
based on state-backed fiat currency. CBDCs, which “could potentially be used as
a tool to achieve policy objectives such as
In 2017, Singapore’s central bank trialed a Examples improved safety and resilience in payments
distributed ledger system focused on inter-
In 2018, the Marshall Islands created a new systems; increased efficiency, access and
bank payments.
digital currency called the Sovereign (SOV), competitiveness of payments systems;
which is now legal tender in the micronesian better data transmission and reporting to
nation. Singapore’s Central Bank created central banks; and financial inclusion.”
a digital currency backed by the Singapore
The Impact
dollar that runs on the Ethereum block-
chain. Canada’s Central Bank has been According to a report from the Bank of
researching a central bank digital currency, International Settlements, 80% of the 63
or CBDC, and China is working on its own central banks surveyed are researching
blockchain-based digital currency. whether and when to release their own
digital currencies.
345
Additional Financial Technologies
and Cryptocurrencies Trends
 TRENDS
Automated Credit Risk Modeling Crypto-Mining Malware

Big banks now use artificial intelligence Crypto-mining malware pirates processing
to automate credit risk modeling. Start- power on a computer, smartphone, or other
up Spin Analytics readies data first and connected device to mine cryptocurren-
then runs models as needed. It’s just one cies. Hackers most often gain access to
example of the A.I.-powered automated computers by hiding cryptocurrency mining
credit risk modeling services that are now software in what appear to be legitimate,
being studied by central banks and tested mundane software updates from brands
at commercial banks including BBVA and like Microsoft and Adobe. Once a machine
Crédit Agricole. is infected, it uses its computing resources
to mine for currency on behalf of the hacker.
Crypto Trading Bots We’ll likely continue to see crypto-mining
malware spread in 2020.
Investing in cryptocurrencies isn’t for the
faint of heart. With significant volatility and
complicated technical workflows, it can
be exhaustingly difficult to trade cryptos.
But trading bots can help by monitoring the
crypto markets 24/7, since, unlike the stock
market, they never close. Send instructions
to the bot, and it will carry out its com-
mands until you instruct otherwise. That
said, as we’ve seen in other places, bots can
be glitchy.

347
30 Space & Off-Planet Trends
353 Imaging Space
353 Lots (and Lots) of
Satellite Launches
353 Crowded Skies
353 Internet from Space
354 Space-Based
Quantum Internet
354 Space Junk
354 Bigger, Bolder Telescopes
354 Asteroid Mining
for Resources
354 The New Space Economy
354 Made in Space
355 Space Tourism
355 Galactic Ride Sharing
355 Seeking a New Life
in the Off-World Colonies
355 Fuel-Free Space
Propulsion Systems
356 Mercury Rain
356 Galactic Gas Stations
356 Space Forces
357 China’s Space Ambitions
357 Ultra-Long Space Missions
349
ACT
LONGER-TERM IMPACT
INFORMS
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
Space
STRATEGY NOW
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
"Change is the KEY INSIGHT

Space: the final frontier. A new generation
essential process of astrophysicists, cosmologists, engi-

neers, astrobiologists, planetary scientists,
of all existence." astrochemists, astrobotanists, atmospher-

ic scientists, aerospace professionals,
computer scientists, businesspeople, and
– Mr. Spock government leaders hope to go where no
human has gone before. Not just to the
Moon and back, but to asteroids, black
holes, Mars, and exoplanets beyond our
solar system.

This is an important year for space initia-
tives. Some of the planned missions involve
humans, others are for robots only, and a
One of the first high-resolution images of the surface of the sun, taken by the Daniel K. handful will bring earthly agriculture into
Inouye Solar Telescope. space. Some estimates value the space
Photo courtesy of the NSO, AURA and NSF.
industry at $330 billion, with that figure
potentially set to double by 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
Human ambition, our quest for knowledge,
and our curiosity have driven our endeavors

to explore space. Last year marked the 50th Moon
anniversary of Apollo 11’s historic voyage to In humanity’s first attempt at collecting
the lunar Sea of Tranquility, which punctu- lunar samples since 1976, China’s Chang’e 5
ated a space race that had pitted the U.S. mission will head to the Moon.
against the U.S.S.R. Five decades later, the
race has many more competitors. This year Mars
will see spacecraft launches from India, Once every 26 months, the launch window
Japan, the United Arab Emirates, China, and for Mars missions opens, and July presents
Israel, as well as from commercial compa- a new opportunity for America, Europe, the
nies like Blue Origin, SpaceX, Virgin Orbit, United Arab Emirates, and China to send
and Boeing. up unmanned orbiters, research tools, and
rovers. The ExoMars program, a joint effort
 DEEPER DIVE by the European Space Agency and Rus-
sia's space agency Roscosmos, will send an
A Busy Year for Off-Planet
exploratory spacecraft to Mars on a Russian
Exploration
Proton rocket. China’s Huoxing 1 Mars rover
Sun and NASA’s Mars 2020 rover will both be
The long-awaited Solar Orbiter spacecraft, launched to the Red Planet. The UAE’s Hope SpaceX's Starman mannequin sits inside Elon Musk's red Tesla Roadster with Earth in the
a joint mission from NASA and the European Mars Mission will send an orbiter to study the background, shortly after the initial launch of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket on Feb. 6, 2018.
Space Agency, will take high-resolution im- atmospheric chemistry of the planet from Image credit: SpaceX
ages of the Sun’s poles for the first time, and above.
give us a better understanding of how our Human cargo tests
main source of energy, heat, and light works.
For the first time since 2011, American
astronauts are scheduled to launch into
space from a U.S. launchpad. SpaceX's Crew
351
Space cont.
Dragon will launch an historic mission to in finance and in science-fiction and game
the International Space Station (ISS) with design, to name a few.
people on board. NASA astronauts Doug
Hurley and Bob Behnken are scheduled to WATCHLIST FOR SECTION
make the journey. Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner 3gimbals, Aerial & Maritime Ltd., Aerospace
spacecraft will take its first crewed mission Corporation, Airbus D&S, Amazon, Astro Dig-
to the ISS, too. China’s Long March 5B rocket ital, Astrobotic, Astrocast, AXA XL, Boeing,
will launch an unpiloted test flight with the California Polytechnic University, Capella
ultimate goal of bringing humans back to Space, China National Space Administra-
the Moon. Virgin Galactic has said that it will tion, ConsenSys, Cornell University, DARPA,
start taking its first prepaid customers—six Delft University of Technology, DigitalGlobe,
at a time, plus two pilots—for 15-minute Earthcube, Elysium Space, European Space
space flights on its SpaceShipTwo craft Agency, Fleet Space Technologies, GeoOp-
this year. Though a date hasn’t yet been tics, Google, Government of Luxembourg,
announced, Blue Origin has said it expects Hera Systems, Hexcel, Indian Space Re-
to send humans into space sometime this search Organization, Inmarsat, Interorbital
year as well. Systems, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon craft. Satellites Lab, Kanagawa University, Kepler Commu-
nications, Lancashire Holdings, Lawrence
From massive rockets carrying heavy
Livermore National Laboratory, Lockheed
satellite payloads to tiny microsats you can
Martin, Los Alamos National Lab, Masten
hold in your hand, there are thousands of
Space Systems, MDA, MIT, MIT Lincoln Lab,
satellites scheduled for launch this year.
Morgan Stanley, Mojave Air and Space Port,
NASA, NASA Ames Research Center, NASA
IMPACT
Jet Propulsion Lab, National Geospatial
Numerous industries and businesses, even Intelligence Agency, National University of
those firmly rooted on the ground, will be im- Defense Technology (China), Naval Postgrad-
pacted by space exploration: those working uate School, Northrop Grumman, NRL Naval
in insurance, on the 5G network expansion,

Center for Space, OneWeb, Orbital Insight, time, taking the highest-resolution photos trends over time. They can then do the same Crowded Skies
Planet, Santa Clara University, Satellogic, of the sun ever recorded. (The surface looks with a competitor’s parking lots to gather
With thousands of planned spacecraft
Scaled Composites, Shanghai Engineering like the cracked ground of the Atacama strategic intelligence. Mining companies
launches—microsat and cubesat constella-
Center, Shanghai Engineering Center for desert—if it were oozing lava and on fire.) can survey a swath of land to see who’s
tions, in addition to heavier satellites, rock-
Microsatellites (China), Shenzhen Aerospace Our abilities to image space using new started drilling and whether they’ve struck
ets, and spaceships with rovers and human
Dongfanghong, Sky and Space Global, Space techniques and equipment will advance the oil. Satellites monitor traffic, polar ice caps,
cargo—astronomers are warning that our
and Missile Defense Command, Spaceflight work of research scientists across a variety and even individual humans. Near-real
view of the sky, and our ability to research
Industries, SpaceKnow, SpacePharma, of fields. time images captured from space, coupled
the cosmos, is under threat. Scientists have
SpaceX, SRI International, Stratolaunch, with machine learning and analysis tools,
voiced concern that mega-constellations
Technische Universität Berlin, Tokyo Insti- Lots (and Lots) of Satellite is big business. Governments, big agricul-
of microsats and cubesats will not only
tute of Technology, Toray, Transcelestial, Launches tural corporations, intelligence agencies,
obstruct their view, but that they could also
University of Tokyo, U.S. Air Force, U.S. shipping companies, and logistics firms
Entrepreneurs are building and preparing interfere with radio astronomy equipment.
Space Command, Viasat, Virgin Galactic. all want access, and they’re willing to pay
to launch thousands of low-cost, high-value Some commercial spacecraft manufactur-
tens of millions of dollars a year for it. The
satellites in the next year. These satel- ers, including SpaceX, are developing new
 TRENDS combined valuation of companies such as
lite constellations are small, capable of coatings that would minimize reflection and
Planet, Airbus D&S, MDA and DigitalGlobe is
communicating with each other, and they other sources of interference.
Imaging Space well into the tens of billions. In early 2020,
continue to work even when one satellite
the Starlink constellation, a project from
In 2019, scientists did what they had always in the network goes down. They’re referred
Elon Musk's SpaceX, began sending clusters
Internet from Space
thought was impossible: They captured to as microstats or cubesats, and they can
of 60 satellites into orbit every few weeks. Apple and Facebook are working on satel-
an image of a black hole’s silhouette using be used for a variety of purposes, including
By the middle of the year, there could be a lite technology that would beam internet
the Event Horizon Telescope. A team of taking photos and beaming internet access
fleet of 12,000 overhead. Amazon is planning services directly to our devices, and in the
international astronomers and computer back down to Earth. Fleets of cubesats now
a constellation of 3,200 microsats, while process bypass our ISPs. Aerospace compa-
scientists spent a decade developing a new take photos of farmland and beam them
U.K.-based OneWeb is launching up to 700. ny OneWeb is one of the companies planning
kind of imaging technique that revealed a back down to earth to help farmers assess
And that’s just a few examples—it would have to power what it calls “fiber-like internet”
dark black center surrounded by a massive their crops. Image analysis software can
taken us several pages to list every company coverage in the Arctic. New space-based
ring of orange and yellow light. In early find patterns in satellite images and tell big
planning to launch spacecraft over the next internet services will rely on a complex
January, scientists in Maui used the new box retailers, such as Walmart, how many
five years. array of microsat constellations and ground
Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope for the first cars are parked in their lots and can look for
stations. SpaceX and Amazon are similarly
353
Space cont.
working on services that could someday debris will pose a navigation hazard for many already $8.8 billion over budget and still companies to achieve liftoff—with plenty
bring internet coverage to people in areas centuries to come. At least 200 objects roar many years away from taking flight. Even so, of eager venture capitalists footing the bill.
neglected by traditional wireless carriers back through the atmosphere toward earth there are four new NASA space telescope Investors, including Morgan Stanley, are
and internet service providers. each year, including pieces of solar panels concepts that could find their way into eyeing a new space gold rush, now that a
and antennas and fragments of metal. All of development soon. One of the concepts critical mass of commercial space compa-
Space-Based Quantum Internet them pose dangers for future astronauts: will be funded and built to launch in the nies and their technologies have matured
One plum-sized piece of gnarled space trash mid-2030s, but they’re all designed to help enough to move beyond proof of concept
A quantum computer uses special equip-
traveling faster than a speeding bullet could scientists discover supermassive black into testing. Some estimates project the
ment and algorithms to perform wildly
rip a five-foot hole into a spacecraft. That holes, planet-forming disks, new galaxies, value of the space industry to reach more
complicated computations faster and
collision would then spawn its own batch of and of course earth-like exoplanets that than $1 trillion in the next two decades.
more efficiently than classical computers.
shrapnel, adding to the rushing river of junk might sustain life. We anticipate investment into commercial
(See also: Quantum Computing.) While we
already circling the planet. It’s not just Amer- space companies, especially in the areas of
are still some years away from quantum
computing, some physicists believe that
icans doing the dumping, China and Russia Asteroid Mining for Resources insurance, satellites, defense, aerospace
each have dozens of decommissioned technologies, and materials (manufacturing
quantum networks are possible—and that Mining asteroids for resources will prove
satellites overhead. Where all that junk winds and mining).
they would provide security, privacy, and invaluable to researchers back on Earth. In
up isn’t something we can predict accurately.
safety unmatched by today’s internet. Delft September 2017, Arizona State University
University of Technology in the Netherlands
We could be unintentionally wreaking havoc
astrophysicist Dante Lauretta and his team Made in Space
on civilizations far away from Earth, for all
is currently working on a quantum network, launched the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft to As the cost of sending payloads into space
we know catalyzing future intergalactic
while China is building a quantum communi- Bennu, an asteroid that might offer secrets decreases, we will start to see more prod-
wars. Or, we might cause far less grandiose
cations satellite program. about the early history of the solar system. ucts made in space. Sure, it sounds cool—
problems. Space junk could start to behave
In January of 2020, the craft successfully imagine the label possibilities!—but making
in unpredictable ways, reflecting sunlight the
Space Junk wrong direction, changing our atmosphere,
completed a flyover of its designated mining products in space has more to do with
site; the probe will take its sample in August leveraging microgravity than marketing.
Space is our next dumping ground. As many or impacting the universe in ways that don’t
and then begin its three-year journey home. For example, printing muscle tissue, such
as 170 million fragments of metal and astro fit into our current understanding of physics.
as a heart, is difficult on Earth because the
debris encircle the Earth as a result of hu-
man behavior. That includes 20,000 pieces The New Space Economy delicate tissues required tend to collapse
Bigger, Bolder Telescopes under their own weight. Space-based organ
larger than a softball, and 500,000 about the New spacecraft, rockets, and other tech-
In 2018, a review board found that NASA’s printing using bio-inks and gels would be
size of a marble, according to NASA. This nologies are helping private commercial
James Webb Space Telescope project was possible in microgravity. The first bioprinter

was sent to the ISS last July and printed a about the disconcerting “Overview Effect” in some unusual projects aboard, too. Artist steps toward making it a reality—this year,
tiny portion of a heart muscle. Similar tech- his book Pale Blue Dot: “Our planet is a lonely Trevor Paglen sent a self-inflating sculpture the company will ramp up testing of its
niques could be used in microgravity to cul- speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. that reflects sunlight and can be viewed manned spacecraft by bringing astronauts
ture meats more easily. Another candidate In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is by the naked eye here on earth. A separate to the ISS. However, astrophysicists have
for space production is fiber-optic cables no hint that help will come from elsewhere spacecraft from the Los Angeles County been quick to point out that human travel to
made from fluoride glass, which is difficult to save us from ourselves.” There are prac- Museum of Art sent up a 24-karat gold jar Mars would have some difficult hurdles to
to work with terrestrially because our gravi- tical limitations, too: the estimated travel with a bust of the first African American overcome, not the least of which is radia-
ty can cause crystals to form when the glass time for a trip to Mars and back is currently astronaut to reach space. Yet another craft, tion. As Columbia University astronomer
is being heated and stretched. Researchers set at three years. Getting to and from the the Elysium Star 2 sent by Elysium Space, Caleb Schart said, explaining of the perils
believe that in space, the necessary fibers Moon is much faster—just a one week round contained the cremated remains of people of space travel, “in the worst case scenario
could be created more easily. trip—but still challenging. Lunar travelers who wanted to become shooting stars. As (which may or may not be a realistic extrap-
would contend with something called “space more researchers, artists, and everyday olation) there's a chance you'd end up dead
Space Tourism adaptation syndrome” (like car sickness, but people need to hitch rides on a rocket, we or stupid on Mars. Or both.”
a lot worse) and elevated levels of radiation. anticipate new business models—and more
Test launches for manned commercial
space flight are now underway, which will
One nine-day mission to the Moon would potential regulation. Fuel-Free Space Propulsion
result in radiation exposure equivalent to 35 Systems
help usher in a new era of space tourism. In
December 2018, Virgin Galactic successfully
chest x-rays. Seeking a New Life in the Off- Researchers at the Naval Research Labora-
launched a human crew 51 miles into the World Colonies tory are working on a concept that could not
sky over the Mojave Desert in California. Galactic Ride Sharing NASA said it wants to send humans to Mars only help steer satellites back down to earth
Two pilots, Mark Stucky and former NASA New technologies have spawned a new by 2030, and in 2016, it selected six private when they’re decommissioned, but also
astronaut Rick Sturckow earned the first trend in space transportation: galactic ride U.S. companies, including Boeing, Lock- clean up space clutter in the process. The
ever commercial astronaut wings from the sharing. Spaceflight Industries launched heed Martin, and Bigelow Aerospace, to idea is to outfit new satellites with thin teth-
Federal Aviation Administration. As of the its first rideshare mission, called SSO-A develop prototypes for deep space habitats. ers about a kilometer long. Running an elec-
publication of this report, more than 600 SmallSat Express, aboard a SpaceX Falcon At the beginning of the year, Tesla CEO tric current through the cord would enable a
people had pledged $250,000 each to take a 9 in 2018. The company purchased all of the and SpaceX founder Elon Musk discussed satellite to steer itself using its own electric
ride aboard Virgin Galactic's tourist space- available payload space on the rocket to sending 1 million people to colonize Mars by field as well as the magnetic field from Earth.
craft, which is set to begin flights this year. service customers who wanted to launch the year 2050 by scheduling three Starship Think of it as an invisible rudder that could
But not everyone has the physical or mental things into space. It included microsats and launches a day. That may sound like science someday guide old satellites home.
fortitude for space flight. Carl Sagan wrote cubesats from 17 countries—but there were fiction, but SpaceX has taken preliminary
355
Space cont.
Mercury Rain operational. For that reason, researchers

are developing refueling stations for use
New propulsion systems for rocket engines
in space with new techniques to overcome
would use mercury as a fuel, which could
some challenging hurdles in liquid dynam-
run the risk of spreading toxic chemicals
ics. Last year, startup Orbit Fab successfully
through Earth’s atmosphere. NASA experi-
completed the first set of experiments to
mented with mercury in the 1960s because
see if water could be transferred between
it’s a low-cost, high-power option for ion
two satellite test beds. Orbit Fab has been
engines. Startup Apollo Fusion has discov-
working with satellite manufacturers on
ered a new approach to using mercury—but
something called the Rapidly Attachable
again, there’s a catch. Mercury is heavier
Fuel Transfer Interface, or RAFTI, which is
than the xenon and krypton powering other
a new kind of valve system that would allow
ion engines in use today. What customers
satellites to be fueled on the ground before
might save on costs could pollute the atmo-
launch and, someday, refueled in space.
sphere in potentially harmful ways. While
This would eventually allow more satellites
the U.S. government has tried to reduce
to stay in orbit and help reduce the creation
our mercury emissions since the 1990s,
of new space junk.
longstanding regulations do not specifically
Blue Origin’s reusable launch vehicles and rocket engines will lower the cost of access cover spacecraft hovering above us. The
to space.
Federal Aviation Administration requires
Space Forces
companies to disclose hazardous materials, The U.S. announced the launch of a new
but this doesn’t include satellites. It’s an area Space Force in 2019. Its purpose: to secure
where, yet again, technology has leapt be- our satellite communication networks that
yond our governing agencies and the policy not only power our information ecosystems,
they write. but also control the navigation and posi-
tioning systems we use. President Donald
Galactic Gas Stations Trump signed a $738 billion defense bill, a
portion of which will be earmarked for the
Some satellites require fuel, and, as it
new agency, which is also expected to have
turns out, fuel is very heavy. Once a satel-
up to 15,000 military personnel. But the U.S.
lite runs out of said fuel, it’s no longer fully
isn’t the only country with a military space
program; both Russia and China maintain Ultra-Long Space Missions
their own space forces. It’s unlikely that a
If climate change escalates, and we are
traditional war would be fought in space—
unable to mitigate its effects, humanity
these departments are about securing
is going to need a plan B to planet Earth.
critical network and communications
Some scientists think our next best option
infrastructure from government-sponsored
is a 1000-year space mission to save future
cyberhacking.
generations from extinction. Their target
is a planet called Proxima Centauri b, an exo-
China’s Space Ambitions planet in a habitable zone of a star similar to
In January 2019, China became the first our sun. This means that theoretically water
country to land a robotic mission on the could exist in liquid form there and, the
moon’s far side. It was an historic accom- thinking goes, thus it could support human
plishment—and a clear sign of new leader- life. We don’t know what the atmosphere is
ship in aerospace from China. The country like, or whether the planet’s surface is too
showed up late to the space race—China hot or too cold to sustain living organisms as
didn’t send its first satellite into orbit until we know them. A program founded by sci-
1970, long after the U.S. and former Soviet ence philanthropist Yuri Milner and the late
Union had already been to the moon and Stephen Hawking is building a spacecraft A computerized projection of space objects monitored by Russian space radar,
Sofrino, Russia.
back—but it’s certainly making up for lost weighing only a few grams that would be
time. President Xi Jinping said "the space propelled by a 100-billion-watt laser fired at
dream is part of the dream to make China it from earth. The craft would take 20 years
stronger…the Chinese people will take to reach the Alpha Centauri solar system,
bigger strides to explore further into space.” where Proxima Centauri b is located. It’s a
China doesn’t just want to be seen as a pow- step toward building a new kind of space-
erful Asian nation—it wants to set the global craft, one big enough to transport us deep
pace for numerous geoeconomic initiatives, into space on a 1,000-year journey to reach
for environmental causes, and for societal humanity’s new home.
development. Chinese officials have said
that by 2030, China hopes to be among the
major space powers of the world.
357
31 Weak Signals
for the 2020s
 WEAK SIGNALS FOR THE 2020'S
At the Future Today Institute, our goal in the first step of forecasting is to 01 Artificial intelligence detecting and acting on our emotions,
identify weak signals. Because we know that technology is deeply inter- especially in advertising.
twined with a number of other areas of modern change—the economy,
education, government, media, and more—we cannot think about the future 02 An Internet of Behaviors that mines, refines, and productizes
of a given technology without simultaneously considering how it relates to our behavioral biometrics for use in personalizing our devices
all these other areas.
and networks.
To do this, we use a series of questions to guide our research on emerging
technology, science, and other areas of change. We categorize our research 03 A new constellation of connected devices—that doesn’t
using a network of nodes and connections. Creating a network map of signals include smartphones.
forces us to think very broadly—not just about an emerging trend, but about
how that trend relates to a broader ecosystem. Taking this wider view, where 04 Blockchain applied to news in an effort to deter misinformation
nodes and relationships are considered in tandem, is critical. This approach and deepfakes.
can be used to map the fringe for a product, or even an entire industry.
05 City-scale spatial computing functionality that acts as
We’re headed into a new decade that will bring scientific and technological
a giant municipal operating system, helping citizens with
breakthroughs, emerging ecosystems, and new businesses. Here are some
their day-to-day activities.
of the weak signals that we will be tracking throughout the 2020s:
06 “Unhackable” computers that make use of quantum mechanics.
07 Fully autonomous public transportation systems.
08 Engineered, factory-grown food and beverage at scale.
09 Five-axis additive manufacturing (5D printing for short)

that prints curved layers.
10 Computational pharmacies that employ specially trained

pharmacists with backgrounds in bioinformatics, medicine,
and pharmacology.
359
Events That Will Shape 2020
Your guide to the events that will shape the year ahead.
March April May June

 More than 100,000 techies,  April is a month of important  May is an important month for  It’s the 50th anniversary of Anna Mae
filmmakers, journalists, game anniversaries. It is the 150th tech announcements. Google’s Hays and Elizabeth P. Hoisington
designers and musicians flock to anniversary of the birth of Vladimir annual I/O conference will bring becoming the first women promoted
Austin, Texas for the annual South Ilyich Ulyanov. You know him by his together developers from around to general officer in the U.S. military.
By Southwest festival. nickname: Lenin. It’s also the 50th the world, and will tout Android
 June is another important month for
anniversary of the U.S. invasion of releases, updates to various
 Super Tuesday narrows the tech announcements. AI. researchers
Cambodia, in which Richard Nixon consumer products and services,
Democratic field of presidential gather in Long Beach, California to
helped set into motion events that and prototypes will be revealed.
candidates, and by the end of the present their latest research at the
brought the Khmer Rouge to power. Microsoft’s annual Build conference
month, nearly half of U.S. states will annual IEEE conference on Computer
highlights all of the company’s
have selected their candidate for the  Fifty years ago this month, the Vision and Pattern Recognition.
upcoming devices, gaming updates
primary nomination. first Earth Day was held. Former
and OS releases for developers.  At Apple’s annual WWDC, company
U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson
 The Vatican releases the archives Facebook returns to San Jose for leaders take the stage to showcase
(D-Wisconsin) came up with the idea
of Pope Pius XII, which will provide its annual F8 developer conference. new OS versions and Apple products.
after witnessing a catastrophic oil
researchers insights into the And the annual IBM Think Computex, the world’s largest PC
spill off the coast of Santa Barbara,
Catholic Church’s thinking and work conference in San Francisco will and hardware manufacturing show,
California. And 10 years ago, the iPad
during World War II. reveal IBM’s plans for A.I., cloud, will be held in Taipei. And Amazon’s
debuted.
security, and IT infrastructure. re:MARS Conference brings together
 It is the 250th anniversary of the
 The Quibi platform—a much- world leaders in home automation,
Boston Massacre, when Bostonians  It is the 200th birthday of Florence
anticipated mobile video service robotics, space exploration, and A.I.
argued “no taxation without Nightingale, a pioneer in statistical
founded by HP ex-CEO Meg
representation.” evidence communication, data  The U.S. hosts the G7 summit—though
Whitman and Walt Disney Studios
visualization and the nursing not at a Donald Trump-owned resort
ex-chair Jeffrey Katzenberg—will
profession. as originally planned.
launch publicly.
 Government leaders, business  It is the 75th anniversary of the
tycoons, philanthropists, and signing of the United Nations charter.
sovereign wealth fund managers
 For sports fans, the UEFA Euro 2020
head to Los Angeles for the Milken
football championship begins.
Institute’s Global Conference.
 It’s the 10th anniversary of the

Augmented World Expo, which
brings together AR experts,
researchers and vendors from
around the world.
July August September October
 The 2020 Summer Olympics opens  The Paralympic games begin  It is the 400th anniversary of the  Dubai will host the Expo 2020,
in Tokyo, which will feature rock in Tokyo, with taekwondo Mayflower voyage. which will include pavilions from
climbing, surfing, skateboarding, and and badminton added as new 180 countries, a massive-scale
 It’s also the 25th anniversary of the
karate as new competitive sports. competitive events. vertical farm, and many other
Beijing Declaration, which was a
The games will end in August. technological wonders.
 It’s the 75th anniversary of the conference that produced what
 The United Nations World Population World War II nuclear strikes on was then the most progressive  The world’s largest and most
Day asks us to consider global Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which blueprint ever for advancing women’s important book fair, the
population issues. killed more than 200,000 people. rights. The declaration was adopted Frankfurter Buchmesse, takes
unanimously by 189 countries, but place in Frankfort, drawing 300,000
 A hundred years ago on July 25th,  It’s 100 years since the passing of there hasn’t been a follow-up summit visitors from around the globe.
chemist Rosalind Franklin was born. the 19th amendment, which gave since then.
Her research in DNA and x-ray images American women the right to vote.
enabled Watson and Crick to deduce  This month marks the 50th
 Professional hackers gather in
the double-helix DNA architecture. anniversary of Black September,
Las Vegas for the 28th annual DEF
when members of the Popular
 The Democratic National Convention CON conference.
Front for the Liberation of Palestine
takes place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
 The Republican National hijacked three commercial jets
and will announce its presidential
Convention takes place in bound for NYC.
nominee to face off against Donald
Charlotte, North Carolina. The
Trump in the fall.  A new successor to Live Aid—Global
RNC will confirm their candidate—
Goal Live—will take place around the
 Once every 26 months the launch which as of publication is
world to help raise money for the
window for Mars missions opens, incumbent Donald Trump—and will
world’s 59 poorest countries. The 10-
and July presents a new opportunity release their national platform.
hour concert will bring together artists
for America, Europe, the United
and celebrities from five continents
Arab Emirates, and China to send up
and will be livestreamed globally.
unmanned orbiters, research tools,
and rovers into space.  The UN General Assembly’s 75th
annual meeting takes place in
 Tech, media, and business moguls
New York.
trek to Sun Valley, Idaho for Allen &
Co’s annual confab.  The IFA—Europe’s largest consumer
electronics trade show—is held in
Berlin.
361
Events That Will Shape 2020
Your guide to the events that will shape the year ahead.
November December January February

 In November, world leaders will  New Zealand decides whether to  The World Economic Forum Annual  Some of the biggest thought
meet to discuss various initiatives. legalize cannabis. Meeting is held in Davos-Klosters, leaders will gather in Europe
The United Nations’ COP 26 climate Switzerland, bringing together for the Mobile World Congress,
 It’s the 250th anniversary of the
change conference takes place in 3,000 of the world’s most pow- which typically unveils big mobile
birth of Ludwig van Beethoven.
Glasgow with 200 world leaders in erful government, business, and network announcements.
Concerts and celebrations are
attendance. A massive gathering academic leaders.
planned around the world.
of G20 nation representatives and
 The Consumers Electronics Show,
leaders from the International Mon-  It’s also the 50th anniversary of an
the world’s largest convention
etary Fund and World Bank gather infamous meeting between Presi-
for electronics and digital media,
for a summit in Saudi Arabia. dent Nixon and Elvis Presley, who
is held in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Leaders from the world’s 20 largest shook hands for a photographer.
Expect countless roundups and
economies gather in Riyadh for the To date, it is the most-requested
think pieces about the future of
G20 summit to discuss trade and item from the National Archives—
consumer media.
technology. And celebrations will more than the Bill of Rights or
honor the 50th anniversary of the Constitution.
founding of UNESCO, the United  A.I. luminaries gather at the annual
Nations Educational, Scientific and Neural Information Processing
Cultural Organization. Systems conference in Montréal
 Presidential and congressional to talk about the future of artificial
elections decide America’s next intelligence.
slate of political leaders.
 November 11 marks Singles’ Day in
China—the annual shopping event
that dwarfs both Black Friday and
Prime Day in the United States.
 The AWS re:Invent draws the
largest gathering for the cloud
computing community, while
Dreamforce, the annual me-
ga-conference produced by Sales-
force, brings more than 170,000
people to San Francisco.

About the Authors
Authors Production Staff

Amy Webb Marc Palatucci Sam Guzik Jennifer Alsever
Future Today Institute Founder Senior Foresight Analyst Foresight Affiliate Editorial Director
Marc Palatucci is a futurist and associate Sam Guzik is a digital strategist and jour- Jennifer Alsever is an award-winning
Amy Webb is a quantitative futurist. She is
with the Future Today Institute specializ- nalist. He works as a product director for journalist, who, for more than two decades,
the founder of the Future Today Institute
ing in technology, culture and business. Hearst Newspapers, leading development has written about technology, business,
and is a professor of strategic foresight at
He holds a BA in linguistics and languages of subscriber experiences and newsroom consumer trends and startups as a contrib-
the NYU Stern School of Business. Webb is
from NYU's Gallatin School of Individualized tools. Previously, he was editor for strategy utor to the New York Times, Fortune Mag-
a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University’s Säid
Study, an MBA in emerging technology from and platforms at Newsday. He is a gradu- azine, Fast Company, Inc Magazine, Wired
School of Business, a Fellow in the United
NYU's Stern School of Business, and he ate of the NYU Stern School of Business, and more. She is also the author of the
States-Japan Leadership Program and a
serves as editor-at-large for an arts, fashion Columbia University Graduate School of award-winning young adult fiction trilogy,
Foresight Fellow in the U.S. Government
and culture magazine and creative media Journalism and Washington University in St. The Trinity Forest Series. She is a graduate
Accountability Office Center for Strate-
agency in New York. Louis. from the University of Colorado at Boulder.
gic Foresight. She was a Visiting Nieman
Fellow at Harvard University, where her Elena Giralt Kriffy Perez Emily Caufield
research received a national Sigma Delta Foresight Affiliate Foresight Affiliate Creative Director
Chi award. She was also a Delegate on the
Elena Giralt is a researcher at the Future Kristofer “Kriffy” Perez has over a decade of Emily Caufield is an award-winning graphic
former U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential experience as a payments strategy consul-
Today Institute and is currently the product designer and illustrator. At the Future Today
Commission, where she worked on the tant with leading global banks and retailers
marketing manager for the Electric Coin Institute, she applies design thinking and
future of technology, media and interna- across Europe and the Americas. Kriffy
Company, where she focuses on Zcash computational design to complex research
tional diplomacy. She has written several has worked for Visa, MasterCard Advisors,
and privacy-preserving technology. Elena and forecasting scenarios. She is a graduate
award-winning books, including The Signals the Boston Consulting Group, IBM, and
co-founded Blockchain Latinx, a monthly of Boston University’s College of Fine Arts.
Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomor- co-founded a startup. He has accumulat-
meetup group that explores what block-
row’s Mainstream, which explains the Future ed more than 120 projects across eight Cheryl Cooney
chain means for Latinos and for Latin countries and filed 15 patents. He received a
Today Institute’s forecasting methodology Director of Operations
America. She has an MBA from New York degree in mechanical engineering from Le-
and how any organization can identify risk Cheryl Cooney has served as the Future
University Stern School of Business. high University and an MBA from New York
and opportunity before disruption hits, and Today Institute’s director of operations for
University’s Stern School of Business.
The Big Nine: How The Tech Titans and Their the past decade. She manages workflows,
Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity, a planning, and logistics. Previously, she
Additional Research
long-view assessment of artificial intelli- worked at various law firms in New York
gence which was longlisted for the Financial Kara Lipsky and Washington D.C., where she supported
Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Ryo Hashimoto attorneys and managed back office oper-
Year award and shortlisted for the Think- ations. Cheryl has had various poems and
stories published in Dream Chaser’s Maga-
ers50 Digital Thinking Award.
zines, along with various poems published
in an Australian anthology called “Prints
Rhyming - Singing the Year” published by
Prints Charming Books.
363
How To Think More Like a Futurist
We invite you to develop a culture of strategic foresight within your organization. The
following tools are open source and available for download at futuretodayinstitute.com.
Our Future Today Institute foresight methodology is published in detail in The Signals
Are Talking, available in hardcover and paperback at most bookstores and on Amazon.
For bulk orders of Signals, contact our office.

About The Future Today Institute
Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute helps leaders and their organizations prepare
for deep uncertainty and complex futures. We focus exclusively on how emerging tech-
nology and science will disrupt business, transform the workforce, and ignite geopolitical
change. Our pioneering, data-driven forecasting methodology, trend identification frame-
work, scenario writing process and risk/ opportunity matrix empowers leaders to make
better decisions about their futures, today.
Contact Us
The Future Today Institute
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13th Annual Edition

Tech Trends Report

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

24 Artificial Intelligence 38 Creating 3D Models from

32 A.I. in the Cloud 39 Natural Language

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

For a complete list of trends by industry, and to search by individual

1. Years On The List 4. Examples 8. Action Matrix

All of the cameras and sensors seem futuristic and

Many organizations prefer to take a BUILD CAPABILITIES DEVELOP STRATEGY

clients. We have a singular goal: think

FIND DISRUPTION BRAINSTORM IDEAS

Sample Action Sample Action

1. Converge: Determine your questions, time horizons and stakeholders.

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

The Four Laws of Tech Trends

1. Trends are driven by basic human needs.

2. Trends are timely, but they persist.

3. Trends are the convergence of weak signals over time.

4. Trends evolve as they emerge.

Typically all four features are present in an authentic strategic trend.

FTI’s Future Forces Theory explains how disruption

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Wealth Distribution Geopolitics Media and Telecommunications

Think exponentially. Act incrementally.

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

12 - 24 months 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years 10+ years

Example time ranges

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

32 Enterprise 38 Processes, Systems and 42 Hybrid Human-Computer 47

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

KEY INSIGHT ago. Because A.I. itself isn’t the trend, we

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Companies Building the Future of A.I.

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

 TRENDS A.I. in the Cloud

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Serverless Computing to build and release their own software

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Global Rush to Fund A.I. Algorithm Marketplaces

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Processes, Systems and

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Soon, if the foreground of a mountain is

Hybrid Human-Computer Vision

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Content and Creativity

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Consumer Products and Services

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics and Warfare

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

China’s A.I. Rules

 DEEPER DIVE Francisco, and they are investing signifi-

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

© 2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE

A.I. Bans for Specific Industries A.I. Becomes a Self-Fulfilling

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY