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2 August 2019 2
State Bank of India
Slippages elevated across Slippages elevated across segments; stress asset pool increases sequentially
segments. Of the total slippages of INR169.9b (INR79.6b in 4QFY19), the corporate
segment accounted for INR53.5b, while the rest of the slippages were from SME
(INR39.6b), agri (INR42.4b) and retail (INR24.4b).
Total SMA-1 and SMA-2 increased to INR102.9b (0.5% of advances), led by an
increase of INR20b in SMA-1 on account of one state government entity.
Despite elevated slippages, healthy recoveries/upgrades of INR57.7b and higher
write-offs of INR154.8b resulted in a 2.5%/0.4% QoQ decline in absolute
GNPA/NNPA. GNPL/NNPL ratios stood at 7.5% (flat QoQ)/3.1% (+6bp). The
bank’s reported PCR increased 60bp QoQ to 79.3%.
GNPA in the agriculture segment elevated to 13.1% (v/s 11.6% in 4Q) and in the
SME segment increased to 9.3% (v/s 8.6% in 4Q). GNPA in retail and large
corporates and mid corporates stood largely stable at 1.2% and 13.6%,
respectively.
Retail loans grew 18.7% Continued focus on increasing retail loan mix led by housing
YoY, led by growth in home Retail segment continued exhibiting strong growth (+18.7% YoY), led by robust
loans. growth in home loans (+28.5%) and auto loans (+7.3% YoY). Retail: wholesale
mix now stands at 55:45.
Corporate book grew by 11.6% YoY (-8% QoQ), while SME and agri book grew by
2.2%/6.9% YoY.
IL&FS exposure: Of the total standard exposure of INR18.3b, INR6.9b pertains to
the green category, INR9.3b to the amber category and INR1.4b to the red
category (only one account).
2 August 2019 3
State Bank of India
Other highlights
Domestic NIM stood largely flat at 3.0%.
Subsidiaries performance: Performance of subsidiaries remains strong, with
PAT for SBI Life, SBI Fund Mgt., SBI Cards and SBI General Insurance coming in at
INR3.7b, INR1.2b, INR3.5b and INR750m, respectively.
CET1 ratio stood at 9.61%, with a Tier 1 ratio of 10.7% (CAR of 12.9%).
Asset quality
Provisions of INR23b made on two standard accounts (DHFL, renewable energy
account), which are not part of PCR currently. The provisions made on the bond
portfolio are ~15%, and 7.5% on the term loan.
The bank is building LGDs and accordingly made provisions in the DHFL case.
Sashakt is no more relevant after June 7 circular. Out of 38 accounts, 18 are NPA
and remaining 20 accounts are standard.
Two standard accounts out of total 20 standard accounts (exposure of
~INR190b), which are part of the resolution, constitute 70% of total exposure
(INR140b). DHFL is one of the two accounts.
SBI Caps is assisting resolution plan of DHFL. The last date of resolution plan for
DHFL is 6th Dec’19
Corporate slippages: One account is NPA due to delay in ICA (INR20b), barring
that the corporate slippages were in line.
Within agri slippages, one state has contributed INR20b. If the same borrower
has any other loans with the bank, then those accounts will also be classified as
NPA (spillover to the P-segment).
Recovery in agri GNPA is very difficult and normally goes under farm loan
waivers category.
SME slippages were higher as dispensation got withdrawn and also some small
trading companies slipped during the quarter.
One of the PSU account was recognized as NPA and recovered during this
quarter. The account is performing as per the restructuring plan.
Signed ICA worth INR190b, mostly in the power sector.
Nearly INR20b worth of loans is in SMA and also appearing in INR190b (where
ICA is signed).
2 August 2019 4
State Bank of India
Guidance/business update
Expects credit cost of 1.4% for FY20 after considering DHFL account and one
stressed accounts in the renewable sector.
Expects core ROA at 0.5%-0.6% not considering recoveries from NCLT
resolutions and sale of assets/value unlocking from subs.
The bank expects NIM to expand to ~3.2%.
IPO of SBI card might be by the end of the fiscal.
Exhibit 4: We cut our FY20/21 earnings by 14%/11 factoring in higher credit cost
Old Estimates Revised Estimates Change (%)/bps
INR B
FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Net Interest Income 997.8 1,141.3 983.6 1,127.4 -1.4 -1.2
Other Income 393.5 432.8 393.5 425.0 0.0 -1.8
Total Income 1,391.3 1,574.1 1,377.1 1,552.3 -1.0 -1.4
Operating Expenses 743.9 794.3 736.3 783.3 -1.0 -1.4
Operating Profits 647.4 779.8 640.9 769.0 -1.0 -1.4
Provisions 221.1 306.2 273.9 347.1 23.8 13.4
PBT 426.2 473.6 367.0 421.9 -13.9 -10.9
Tax 144.9 161.0 124.8 143.4 -13.9 -10.9
PAT 281.3 312.6 242.2 278.5 -13.9 -10.9
Cons. PAT 298.6 333.3 259.5 299.2 -13.1 -10.2
Loans (INRt) 24.7 28.3 24.3 27.5 -1.8 -2.5
Deposits (INRt) 31.7 35.2 31.6 35.1 -0.5 -0.5
Margins (%) 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 -3.6 -2.5
Credit Cost (%) 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.3 25.5 19.9
RoA (%) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 -10.0 -7.6
RoE (%) 13.4 13.2 11.7 12.0 -175.7 -115.3
Source: MOFSL, Company
2 August 2019 5
State Bank of India
2 August 2019 6
State Bank of India
Jul-14
Jul-19
Jul-09
Jul-14
Jul-19
Apr-13
Apr-18
Apr-13
Apr-18
Jan-12
Jan-17
Jan-12
Jan-17
Oct-10
Oct-15
Oct-10
Oct-15
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
2 August 2019 7
State Bank of India
Story in charts
Exhibit 9: NIM expanded 3bp QoQ to 2.8% Exhibit 10: Loans grew 14% YoY, deposits were up 7% YoY
Loans(INRt) Deposits(INRt)
Yield on loans Cost of deposits NIM's
9.3
8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6
5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
18.7
25.9
18.0
26.0
18.0
26.2
18.3
26.5
19.3
27.1
18.8
27.5
19.6
28.1
20.5
28.3
21.9
29.1
21.3
29.5
2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
Exhibit 11: CASA ratio moderated to 45.1% Exhibit 12: PCR (incl. TWO) improved 60bp QoQ to 79.3%
CASA Deposits(INRb) CASA Ratio(%) GNPA(INRb) NNPA(INRb) PCR(%)
11,135
11,481
11,873
11,962
12,268
12,376
12,873
12,844
1,109
1,078
1,024
1,728
1,685
2,059
1,878
1,991
2,234
2,128
1,779
1,881
1,861
659
656
992
948
809
970
979
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 13: Loan book remains well diversified – Retail: Wholesale mix stands at 55:45
INR b 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 YoY QoQ
Large corporate 6,420 7,417 7,011 7,453 7,747 8,516 7,826 11.6% -8.1%
International 2,998 3,020 2,667 2,909 2,763 3,027 3,098 16.2% 2.4%
SME 2,677 2,699 2,751 2,657 2,931 2,886 2,812 2.2% -2.6%
Retail 5,210 5,466 5,591 5,766 6,126 6,478 6,635 18.7% 2.4%
Agri 1,941 1,883 1,881 1,907 1,987 2,027 2,010 6.9% -0.8%
Source: Company, MOFSL
2 August 2019 8
State Bank of India
Balance Sheet
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Share Capital 8 8 9 9 9 9
Reserves & Surplus 1,683 2,110 2,182 2,200 2,427 2,685
Net Worth 1,691 2,118 2,191 2,209 2,436 2,694
Deposits 22,405 25,853 27,063 29,114 31,589 35,063
Change (%) 9.8 15.4 4.7 7.6 8.5 11.0
of which CASA Dep. 8,608 11,988 12,039 12,976 14,183 16,129
Change (%) 6.9 39.3 0.4 7.8 9.3 13.7
Borrowings 2,525 3,321 3,621 4,030 4,384 4,746
Other Liab. & Prov. 1,898 1,756 1,671 1,456 1,558 1,683
Total Liabilities 28,519 33,049 34,548 36,809 39,966 44,185
Current Assets 2,020 2,709 1,919 2,225 2,356 2,492
Investments 6,155 9,329 10,610 9,670 10,347 11,123
Change (%) 3.0 51.6 13.7 -8.9 7.0 7.5
Loans 18,493 18,690 19,349 21,859 24,263 27,539
Change (%) 10.5 1.1 3.5 13.0 11.0 13.5
Fixed Assets 143 499 400 392 318 328
Total Assets 28,519 33,049 34,548 36,809 39,966 44,185
2 August 2019 9
State Bank of India
2 August 2019 10
State Bank of India
Corporate profile
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Company description
SBI is the oldest and the largest bank in India. The
SBI group offers a wide range of banking products
and services. Through its non-banking subsidiaries
and joint venture companies, it offers a wide range
of financial services, such as merchant banking,
fund management, factoring, primary dealership,
broking, investment banking, credit cards, life
insurance, and general insurance. The bank has
22,008 branches spread across the country. Source: MOFSL/Bloomberg
2 August 2019 11
State Bank of India
NOTES
2 August 2019 12
State Bank of India
2 August 2019 13
State Bank of India
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
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research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
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This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
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instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as
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contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
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employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may
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MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any
errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website
www.motilaloswal.com.CIN no.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road,
Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company
Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management
Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of
Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a
group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory
services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee
of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj
Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
2 August 2019 14