Scenario 2

By CovidActNow.org, an ad hoc group of computer scientists

30,000

Projected deaths
26,828
hospitalizations
25,000 expected on
May 14 47,000

With poor
compliance with
shelter-in-place
20,000 rules

2,000
With good
Two models, two very different outcomes 15,000 compliance with
shelter-in-place
Scientists trying to project the toll of COVID-19 have come up with some wildly divergent rules
results, in part because epidemiologists still don’t know many things about the new
Three
coronavirus. These two attempts to predict what will happen in Nevada are based on
months
different assumptions about things like the fatality rate and how fast the disease will
shelter-in-
spread.
place with
poor
10,000
compliance
Scenario 1
By the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

3,248 beds needed for COVID-19 Projected deaths 921

7,000 patients at peak on April 21
6,000 Range of Hospitals
outcomes 5,000 overloaded
5,000 4,572 beds available*
4,000
Hospitals
3,000 overloaded 2,247 beds available* Strict
compliance with
2,000
shelter-in-place
1,000 rules
0
0

March April May June July March April May June July
Sources: CovidActNow.org; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation * The scenarios use different figures for the number of available beds. It is not clear why. Wes Rand Las Vegas Review-Journal

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