The Weekly Update

Week 12, 2020

Provided by
1 Market Update YTD Performance as of March 20th, 18:30 EDT.
• Significant boost in the crypto market
50%
• Market sentiment still low – Investors not
confident yet
• Volume pushing to 2019 highs
40%
• Extreme volatility as market retrace
• Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market
• Global instability: Flight to the US Dollar
30%

20%

10%
2 Valuation
0%
• Bitcoin rebounds, but are the bulls in full control
yet? The BTC price needs to cross over an
important resistance level
-10%
-11.26%, Bitcoin (in USD)

-20%
-28.49%, Euronext (in USD)

-30% -29.25%, S&P 500

3 Blockchain Activity -39.35%, FTSE (in USD)

-40%
• Data show that long-term investors are -40.40%, MOEX (in USD)
accumulating bitcoin after the price crashed
-50%
January 20 February 20 March 20
 Significant boost in the crypto market
S&P500 correlation skyrocketing

Top Ten by Market Capitalization Price Last week Last month YTD Bitcoin Correlation:
Bitcoin 5881.56 19.84% -39.08% -18%
ETH XRP GOLD S&P500
90-day correlation
Ethereum 124.58 12.94% -52.35% -4% (weekly change included)

XRP 0.15 7.85% -44.82% -21%

BTC 0.938 0.092 0.900 0.204 0.025 -0.070 0.561 0.552
Bitcoin Cash 205.62 26.27% -44.72% 1%
Bitcoin SV 160.24 46.21% -43.40% 65% Source: coinmetrics.io

Litecoin 36.65 13.75% -50.86% -12%

EOS 2.16 16.59% -47.21% -17%
Top 3: Percentage Change in Price Over the Last Week
Binance Coin 11.21 21.07% -49.02% -17% 50%
Tezos 1.52 13.71% -55.50% 10%
UNUS SED LEO 0.99 2.10% 0.20% 20%
40%

Best Performing Last Last week Last month YTD

30%
Bitcoin Diamond 0.48 93.87% -31.97% 51%
Dash 63.69 52.37% -39.61% 53% BTC
20%
Bitcoin SV 160.24 46.21% -43.40% 65%
Zcash 30.30 32.08% -49.97% 8% ETH
Vechain 0.00 28.57% -58.46% -51% 10%
XRP

Worst Performing Last Last week Last month YTD 0%

Hedera Hashgraph 0.03 -8.78% -32.05% 203%
0x 0.14 3.06% -47.98% -21% -10%
Dogecoin 0.00 3.57% -34.02% -14%
Ethereum Classic 4.78 7.13% -49.53% 7%
XRP 0.15 7.85% -44.82% -21% -20%
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar

Last week of top 50 by market capitalization

Source: cryptowat.ch Source: cryptowat.ch

Mar 23, 2020 3 Provided by

 Bitcoin leading the way as prices turn upwards
Percentage of Total Market Capitalization
BTC ETH BCH LTC XRP DASH NEM XMR IOTA NEO

Market
64.35% 8.16% 2.24% 1.40% 3.95% 0.36% 0.20% 0.41% 0.21% 0.25%
Share
Weekly
Change*
0.98% -0.39% 0.13% -0.07% -0.40% 0.08% -0.01% 0.01% 0.00% -0.01%
March has, to say the least, been a rollercoaster in the crypto market.
After crashing down recently, the market is now picking up speed Source: Coinpaprika.com
* Weekly change in percentage points
again.

30% Monthly Performance of Market Capitalization Weighted Indexes

▪ Bitcoin is now “only” down 31.7% in March and has bounced of the 20%
lows. At the monthly bottom, the bitcoin price was down over 43%, so
this marks a recovery for the leader in the crypto market. 10%

0%
▪ Small Caps just got surpassed by bitcoin’s performance, but is still
ahead of both Large Caps and Mid Caps.
-10%

▪ Mid Caps is still struggling, down 41.6% so far in March. -20%

-31.66%
-30%
-32.09%
▪ Bitcoin’s market dominance saw a small boost last week, while ETH
and XRP are struggling to follow the market leader. -40% -34.60%
-41.57%
-50%

-60%
1 Mar 4 Mar 7 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 19 Mar 22 Mar

Large Mid Small Bitcoin

Source: Bletchleyindexes.com

Mar 23, 2020 4 Provided by

 Market sentiment stays low – Investors not confident yet?
The Fear & Greed Index stays in the “Extreme Fear” area and is now at 10. Even though the
market saw a strong recovery last week, investors doesn’t look too confident just yet.

Extreme Greed
10
100

90
Now Last week Last month

80
Extreme Fear Extreme Fear
Fear (49)
(10) (9)
70

60

50

40

30

20

10
Extreme Fear
0
March 19 April 19 May 19 June 19 July 19 August 19 September 19 October 19 November 19 December 19 January 20 February 20 March 20
Source: alternative.me

Mar 23, 2020 5 Provided by

 Volume pushing to highest levels since 2019 peak
The 7-day average real trading volume* has more than doubled
over the last week. A lot of bitcoin is changing hands right now with
extreme volatility. The 7-day average daily trading volume is now
getting close to the levels we saw back around the peak in 2019.

3,500

3,000
Trading Volume ($ million)

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Real BTC Daily Volume (7-day average)

0
Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20

Source: cryptowat.ch *as defined by Arcane Research. Read more here.

Mar 23, 2020 6 Provided by

 Extreme volatility as market retrace from the lows
It has been a week with large drops and strong retrace for bitcoin. This is without a doubt reflected in
the 30-day volatility, which is pushing to new highs. We’re currently seeing a 30-day average
volatility of almost 9%, which is very high, even for bitcoin.

10%

8.9%
9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

BTC-USD Volatility (30-day average)

1%

0%
Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20

Source: cryptowat.ch

Mar 23, 2020 7 Provided by

 Bitcoin decoupling from the stock markets?

YTD Performance as of March 20th, 18:30 EDT.

▪ Both COVID19 and the sudden supply shock in oil has 50%
led to uncertainty in the global financial markets
40%
▪ All major indexes have nosedived over the past
weeks. 30%

▪ As the market priced in the severity of COVID19, 20%

bitcoin crashed. This was in part due to investors
having a risk-off approach due to global uncertainty. 10%

0%
▪ Past the initial crash, bitcoin mirrored the stock
market movements tightly, leading to its highest ever
90-day correlation with the S&P 500. -10%
-11.26%, Bitcoin (in USD)

-20%
▪ However, the price action last week might -28.49%, Euronext (in USD)
indicate that the tide is about to turn.
-30% -29.25%, S&P 500

▪ Bitcoin seems to be decoupling from the stock -39.35%, FTSE (in USD)
-40%
markets as its value is increasing again, while the -40.40%, MOEX (in USD)
stock markets remain stagnant.
-50%
January 20 February 20 March 20

Source: Yahoo Finance, data from US Close, March 20

Mar 23, 2020 8 Provided by

 Global instability: Flight to the US Dollar?
▪ Over the last week, central banks all over the world have lowered their interest rates and introduced stimulus packages to dampen the negative effects of the COVID-19
crisis.

▪ As the FED lowered the rates to 0%, a paradigm shift regarding fiscal policies might have eclipsed with ZIRPs* becoming the new normal.

▪ The forex markets have been extremely volatile as small currencies have depreciated dramatically against the US dollar, with investors seeking a “safe haven”.

▪ Bitcoin, however, had a strong week. An investor would be better off holding bitcoin from Jan 1st till today than holding GBP in the bank.
Quite remarkable with bitcoin’s recent price crash.

▪ Maybe the turbulence in the financial markets contributes in making investors aware of the value of a scarce, geographically agnostic, decentralized currency with a reliable
issuance policy?

YTD Performance vs The US Dollar, March 20th, 18:30 EDT

50% Currency pair YTD Performance

40% JPYUSD -2.16%

30%
CNYUSD -2.04%
EURUSD -5.02%
20%
KRWUSD -7.04%
10% BTCUSD -11.26%
-2.16%, JPY
0% GBPUSD -13.25%
-5.02%, EUR AUDUSD -18.19%
-10%
-11.26%, BTC BRLUSD -21.16%
-20% MXNUSD -21.38%
-13.25%, GBP
-30% RUBUSD -21.47%
January 20 February 20 March 20 NOKUSD -24.71%
Source: Yahoo Finance *Zero Interest Rate Policies

Mar 23, 2020 9 Provided by

Valuation

Provided by
 Bitcoin rebounds, but are the bulls in control?

▪ Two crazy weeks for the bitcoin price, with

weekly candles we don’t see that often.

▪ BTC has retraced a lot of the brutal crash, and it

will be interesting to see if bitcoin truly is
decoupled from the stock market going forward
in these turbulent times.

▪ The level around $6,600 - $6,800 has been a

support level for the BTC price several times
over the past year.

▪ Will it now act as resistance, or will the price

break above and continue upwards?

Source: Tradingview

Mar 23, 2020 11 Provided by

Blockchain Activity

Provided by
 HODLers are buying bitcoin now
Bitcoin: Holder Net Position Change
▪ Data show long-term hodlers are buying bitcoin now.
100 $19,200

Thousands
▪ A metric called the “Hodler Net Position Change” shows the monthly
position change of long-term investors.
0
▪ When the metric is above zero (green), it means that holders on average
are accumulating BTC. $9,600

▪ When this metric is below zero (red), it means that holders are selling and -100
most likely taking profits.

Net Position Change (BTC)

▪ We saw that the metric dipped below zero in February, as holders stopped $4,800
-200
accumulating.

BTC Price
▪ However, over the past week, holders have once again started
accumulating bitcoin. -300
$2,400

-400
On-Chain Bitcoin Activity (7-day average)
$1,200
Last Last week Last month YTD
-500
Transaction Value Adjusted (mUSD) $5,801 7.33% -15.44% 79.92%

Transaction Count 272,830 -15.84% -16.55% -7.57%

Miner Fees (USD) $329,409 43.78% 8.56% 196.74% -600 $600
Mar 17 Oct 17 May 18 Dec 18 Jul 19 Feb 20
Active Addresses 746,747 -0.74% -1.48% 16.54%

Source: Glassnode (March 20)

Mar 23, 2020 13 Provided by

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