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periode dt dt' dt'-dt dt-1'-dt-1 MR d-d' (d-d')^2

1 140 165.3333 25.3333 -25.33 641.778


2 159 165.3333 6.3333 25.33 -19 -6.33 40.111
3 136 165.3333 29.3333 6.33 23 -29.33 860.442
4 157 165.3333 8.3333 29.33 -21 -8.33 69.444
5 173 165.3333 -7.6667 8.33 -16 7.67 58.778
6 181 165.3333 -15.667 -7.67 -8 15.67 245.445
7 177 165.3333 -11.667 -15.67 4 11.67 136.112
8 188 165.3333 -22.667 -11.67 -11 22.67 513.779
9 154 165.3333 11.3333 -22.67 34 -11.33 128.444
10 179 165.3333 -13.667 11.33 -25 13.67 186.779
11 180 165.3333 -14.667 -13.67 -1 14.67 215.112
12 160 165.3333 5.3333 -14.67 20 -5.33 28.444
MR -20 jml (d-d') 3124.668
MR bar -1.818 MSE 260.389
UCL -4.836 SSE 16.854102159
LCL 4.836 MAPEt 9%
Persentasi
18%
4%
22%
5%
4%
9%
7%
12%
7%
8%
8%
3%
periode (t) dt tdt t^2 t' dt' forecasting error
1 140 140 1 13 182.0606 periode d-dt'
2 159 318 4 14 184.634 1 -42.06061
3 136 408 9 15 187.2075 2 -25.63403
4 157 628 16 16 189.7809 3 -51.20746
5 173 865 25 17 192.3543 4 -32.78089
6 181 1086 36 18 194.9277 5 -19.35431
7 177 1239 49 19 197.5012 6 -13.92774
8 188 1504 64 20 200.0746 7 -20.50117
9 154 1386 81 21 202.648 8 -12.07459
10 179 1790 100 22 205.2214 9 -48.64802
11 180 1980 121 23 207.7949 10 -26.22145
12 160 1920 144 24 210.3683 11 -27.79487
Σt Σdt Σdt' Σt^2 12 -50.3683
78 1984 13264 650 Σ(d-dt)^2
MSE
SSE
mencari b mencari a MAPEt
nxΣtdt 159168 Σdt/n 165.3333
ΣdtΣt 154752 Σt/n 6.5
nxΣt^2 7800 A 148.6061
(Σt)^2 6084
B 2.573427
forecasting verification
(d-dt')^2 persentase dt'-dt dt'-1-dt-1 MR
1769.095 30% 42.06061
657.1036 16% 25.63403 42.06061 -16.42657
2622.204 38% 51.20746 25.63403 25.57343
1074.586 21% 32.78089 51.20746 -18.42657
374.5894 11% 19.35431 32.78089 -13.42657
193.9819 8% 13.92774 19.35431 -5.426573
420.2978 12% 20.50117 13.92774 6.573427
145.7958 6% 12.07459 20.50117 -8.426573
2366.63 32% 48.64802 12.07459 36.57343
687.5642 15% 26.22145 48.64802 -22.42657
772.5549 15% 27.79487 26.22145 1.573427
2536.965 31% 50.3683 27.79487 22.57343
13621.37 ΣMR 8.307692
1135.114 MR bar 0.755245
35.18957 UCL 22.09846
20% LCL -22.09846

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