CHAPTER 14

SECULAR TRENDS IN BODY HEIGHT - INDICATOR

OF GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN LIVING
CONDITIONS OR OF A CHANGE IN SPECIFIC
FACTORS?

M.HENNEBERG

Wood Jones Chair of Anthropological and Comparative Anatomy, University of Adelaide

Medical School, Adelaide, Australia

1. INTRODUCTION

Body size of an animal is a result of its adaptations. These consist of long-term

genetic effects and short-term adjustments during individual ontogeny. To what
extent is the variability of body size in a human population dependent on the genetic
background, and to what on direct ontogenetic adjustments is indicated, although
imperfectly, by the heritability coefficients (Falconer 1980). These are invariably
high for body height (Cavalli-Sforza and Bodmer 1971, Mueller 1976, Roberts et ai.
1978, Susanne 1971). Typically more than 90% of variation in height is due to the
variation of the underlying genetic material. The rest is due to direct environmental
influences upon individual bodies and to measurement errors including diurnal, or
seasonal fluctuations.
During the hominid evolution body size generally increased until the Late
Pleistocene (Frayer 1984, Styne and McHenry 1993, Mathers and Henneberg 1995,
De Miguel and Henneberg 1999). The increase from Pliocene to Late Pleistocene
was about 450 mm (35%) in height and some 30 kg (nearly 100%) in weight.
Reasons are not quite clear, but most probably were related to changing ecological
niche of hominids that provided access to richer foods and favoured stronger bodies
for big-game hunting.
During the Holocene, human body size decreased on all continents (Frayer, 1984,
Jacobs 1985, Henneberg 1988, Brown 1992, Henneberg and Steyn 1993). Sex-
averaged body height declined from about 1750 mm 30 Ka ago to some 1570 mm in
the middle ages (about 10%), while weight declined from nearly 80 kg to 55 kg
(30%) during the same period (Mathers and Henneberg 1995). This decrease was once
again related to changing subsistence patterns as big game became scarcer and many
populations switched to agriculture in which food supply was limited while great
body strength was not necessarily at premium any more. These changes occurred to a
varying degree in various human groups being superimposed on body size

159
P. Dasgupta and R. Hauspie (eds.), Perspectives in Human Growth, Development and Maturation, 159-167.
© 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
160 CHAPTER 14

adaptations to natural environmental factors, especially those related to

thermoregulation. All these millennial changes seem to be of the genetic adaptation
kind that could hardly occur within several decades. Were human stature indicative
solely of the living conditions in terms of the socio-economic stratification one
would have to be forced to conclude that our Upper Pleistocene ancestors, with their
stature matching that in present-day First World countries, were as well-off as
modern Europeans (Styne and McHenry 1993). This can hardly be supported by other
indicators of biological status based on age-specific mortality that indicate much
poorer living conditions (Henneberg 1976, 1992).
In the recent hundred years body height increases were reported for many human
populations (Roche 1979, Bogin 1988, Malina 1990, Prokopec 1984, Sobral 1990,
Jamison 1990, Rao et al. 1993, Spurgeon et al. 1994, Gerver et al. 1994, Gutierrez-
Muniz et al. 1994, Roberts 1994, Huang and Malina 1995, Weber et al. 1995,
Hauspie et at. 1996, 1997, Eiben 1996, Loesch et at. 2000). The increases were in
most cases the greatest when statures of older children and adolescents were compared
by age group. This is the effect of the acceleration of physical growth and maturation
that does not necessarily translate into same magnitude increase in adult stature.
It is significant that a number of authors reported finding no increase in adult
stature in certain populations (Tobias 1975, 1985, 1990, Henneberg and van den
Berg 1990, Dettwyler 1992, Ulijaszek 1993, Leatherman et al. 1995, Prince 1995,
Louw and Henneberg 1997, Pretty et al. 1998). Since the positivist attitude to
science does not attach value to a finding of non-existence of a phenomenon, it can
be suspected that many more researchers found no body height increases in the recent
past but simply neglected to report them (publication bias). It seems therefore that
stature increases in the last century were not universal nor uniformly related to
improvements in socio-economic situation.
Short-term changes occurring between consecutive generations are called "secular
trends" from Latin saeculum for a generation. Since secular increases in body size,
where present, coincided with improvements in the living conditions that occurred
during the last century, this coincidence has been considered indicative of causal
relationship. Hence, secular increases were explained by improvements in living
conditions while non-existence of secular trend was, without further proof,
interpreted as an indication of the lack of improvement in socio-economic situation
(Tobias 1975, 1985, 1990, Oyedeji et al. 1996). This kind of argument has been
strengthened by observations that individuals belonging to higher socio-economic
status groups are taller than members of "lower classes" (Bielicki and WeI on 1982,
Bogin 1988, Rosenbaum et al. 1985). No quantitative comparison of the magnitude
of secular increases with the amount of statural difference between socio-economic
groups was made. The inference that socio-economic improvement is the cause of
secular increases in stature has been based on two categorical statements: (1) higher
socio-economic status people are on the average taller that people of poorer socio-
economic situation and (2) stature increased in some populations experiencing socio-
economic improvements. The lack of secular increase in some populations
experiencing socio-economic improvements was ignored together with the presence
of secular increases where no socio-economic improvement was apparent.
It is argued here that the overall socio-economic improvement per se is not the
cause of secular trends in stature and that specific causes of this phenomenon must
be sought. Once these are found, changes in stature may become sensitive indicators
 SECULAR TRENDS INDICATE SPECIFIC FACTORS 161

of changing specific elements of the environment while health policies may ensure
optimal conditions for child growth by setting standards for those specific elements
in addition to the obviously needed general socio-economic improvement.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS WITHIN AND BETWEEN COUNTRIES

Different socio-economic groups show same trends within a country while same
socio-economic groups have different trends in different countries
Although positivist attitudes argue against publication of data indicating lack of
secular change, the specific situation of South Africa made it significant to report the
lack of secular increase in the stature of people oppressed by apartheid. Data
presented by Tobias (1975,1985) indicated that the stature of Black South Africans
did not change during the last century. This has been interpreted by the author as an
indicator of the lack of socio-economic progress among Blacks caused by restrictive
and biased policies of apartheid. The same policies gave Whites privileged access to
jobs, health services and innovative technologies. Logically it follows that White
stature should exhibit a strong secular trend, paralleling, if not exceeding, that
observed in the First World countries. Our initial observations based on a variety of
data from 19-20th century skeletal samples and surveys of students and military
servicemen did not support this prediction (Henneberg and van den Berg 1990). For
the period 1880-1980 slopes of regressions of stature on birthdate did not differ
significantly between Black males (2.4 mmldecade) Khoisan males (4.8 mmldecade)
White males (5.9 mmldecade) and White females (4.1 mmldecade) (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Secular trends in body height of White and Black South African males and
Khoisan males. Data from Tobias (1975, 1985), Henneberg and van den Berg (1990) and
Louw and Henneberg (1997). Note that slopes of the regression lines do not differ
significantly
162 CHAPTER 14

All slopes were, however, significantly different from zero indicating positive,
but very slow increase of stature. During a comparable period, stature of Dutch
people, from whom the majority of South African Whites are descended, increased at
a rate of about 15 mm1decade (van Wieringen 1986).
It is interesting to note that adult South Australian Aborigines recently surveyed
by ourselves (Pretty et at. 1998) display lack of strong secular increase of stature
similar to oppressed South African Blacks (Figure 2). This occurs despite
documented substantial welfare provided to Aborigines by the government during the
second half of the 20th century. Among some Australian children of European
ancestry a secular increase comparable to those reported for Europe and the US has
been found (Loesch et at. 2000), but this acceleration of physical development did
not translate into substantial increases of adult stature. Data on adult statures of
Australians, though, are scarce. Stature of 5000 adult (18 - 65 years) females
surveyed in 1926 was 1611 mm (Lancaster 1957) while the stature of another 4327
women of comparable age surveyed in 1995 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
(1995) was 1624 mm. This indicates a rate of about 2 mm/decade. A study of
Australian military men indicated the secular increase of stature at a rate of about 4
mm/decade (Soar 1999). These rates are similar to the weak increase found among
South Africans and to the increases among Aboriginal Australians. The socio-
economic history of Australia is similar to that of Europe and the United States, but
the increase in adult stature seems to be less pronounced.

1900
e-- Aborigines
1850 o Blacks o
o
1800 o
~
o
1750 o o
E
E o~
1700 o -u co
19
....
A

..<::
01)
0 &ctJ 0 i oD
'Q) o 0 I:lll DCO@
::r:: 1650 o 0 0
00
1600
1550
1500
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year

Figure 2. Comparison of secular trends in body height of South African Blacks (sample
means like in Fig. 1) and South Australian Aborigines (individual heights by birthdate
adjusted for loss of stature with age, own anthropometric observations, Pretty et at. 1998)

In contrast to South Africa, in Poland policies of communist governments since

the end of the World War II were aimed at obliteration of socio-economic differences,
while the economy of the country, ruined during the War developed poorly under
 SECULAR TRENDS INDICATE SPECIFIC FACTORS 163

Soviet-style policies. Yet the secular trend in stature was strong, exceeding 10
mm/decade (Piontek 1971, Wolanski 1978, Bielicki and Welon 1982). Traditionally,
Polish medical students came from the upper socio-economic strata of the society. In
a sample of 300 students observed by ourselves in 1983 (Henneberg et al. 1985)
64% of parents had full university education. Similar situation obtained in the 1930
study of 153 medical students by Wrzosek (1931). This contrasts with about 5% of
university-educated individuals in the country. Post-war policies clearly favoured the
upliftment of people of lower socio-economic backgrounds at the expense of
economic well-being of the upper and middle classes. Despite this alteration of the
rate of change of socio-economic conditions for various socio-economic groups, the
rate of secular trend among the medical students (12 mm/decade) was the same as
among conscripts representing the total population (12 mm/decade) (Figure 3).
Portugal has been considered one of the least socio-economically developed
countries of Western Europe. Sobral (1990) presented data on body height changes in
four provinces of Portugal (1930-1980). For each province data were analysed
separately for rural and for urban conscripts. In all provinces, and at all dates
examined, rural people were shorter than their urban counterparts, yet in all cases
trends had similar rates of about 10 mm/decade (Figure 4). Parallelism, once again,
though socio-economic conditions and their temporal changes different from those of
Poland.

1900

1850 I a-- Polish conscripts

0 Polish high SES
1800

S 1750
S
.._r 1700
,..t:i
b/)
.(j)
::r:: 1650

1600

1550

1500
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year

Figure 3. Secular trends of body height in Polish males. High socia-economic status is
represented by medical students, data from Henneberg and van den Berg (1990).
164 CHAPTER 14

1700
e-- Setubal, urban
1690 .• _.& .. - Setubal, rural
e-- Beja, urban
1680
- - - - E}- - - - Beja, rural

§ 1670 --+-- Lisbon, urban

. . . . +- - - Lisbon, rural
.fo
·0
1660 * - - Evora, urban
::r:
--- -)(- -- - Evora, rural
1650 x
0
1640 X-
v ~ ~
0
+' :,- -
1630 .-X
B
)(-

1620
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Year

Figure 4. Body height of Portuguese conscripts by date of examination, province and

rural/urban residence. Datafrom Sobral (1990).

In a series of data on Japanese university students and conscripts covering the

period 1900-1963 Kimura (1967) found the same situation as that described for
Poland. Students were about 40 mm taller than conscripts, but both groups showed
parallel increase in stature by about 10 mmldecade.
There are other examples of parallel secular trends detectable in data from the US,
Holland and former Czechoslovakia, all of which were discussed by ourselves earlier
(Henneberg and van den Berg 1990).
There are some other instances in which secular trends of stature were found not
to follow socio-economic change. For example, drastic worsening of socio-economic
conditions of Sioux Indians following the American invasion of their country had
not been reflected in a negative secular trend (Prince 1995). Documented socio-
economic improvement in the Peruvian District of Nunoa has not been reflected by a
positive secular trend in adult stature (Leatherman et at. 1995).

3. DISCUSSION
The positive secular trend of stature was still going strong in the 1970's and 1980's
in some economically advanced countries, while it has apparently halted in others
(Roche 1979, Malina 1990). Were it true that secular trend is a result of consecutive
generations reaching increasingly greater proportions of their ideal "genetic
potential", privileged groups in various societies would have to halt their trends
 SECULAR TRENDS INDICATE SPECIFIC FACTORS 165

earlier than underprivileged ones, who should continue until they "caught up" with
their wealthier compatriots. This certainly was not the case neither in South Africa
nor in Poland. Moreover, the greatest differences in stature between the poorest and
the richest segments of same national populations do not exceed one standard
deviation, i.e. about 60 - 70 mm (Bielicki and Welon 1982, Rosenbaum et al. 1985,
Henneberg and Louw, 1998), while positive secular trends, where they occurred
strongly, shifted stature by as much as 120 - 200 mm (van Wieringen 1986,
Spurgeon et al. 1994). This, coupled with high heritability of the variation in
stature, argues strongly against secular trends being a simple ecosensitive response
to improving general living conditions. In addition, the magnitude of secular trends
in populations experiencing similar changes in socio-economic status varies
considerably from 2 - 6 mm per decade among Australians and South African Whites
to 10 - 15 mm among Europeans.
Secular trends must be caused by specific factors varying from population to
population rather than by the general improvement in living conditions. General
socio-economic improvement may play some role, but it can hardly cause changes
exceeding 70 mm. We cannot yet name specific factors causing greater increases in
height, but certain criteria that they must meet can be specified. This may help to
direct our search for specific factors. Since statural increases in some instances exceed
the range of ecosensitivity, the causative factor must either affect genes determining
stature, or act as a substitute for one of the relevant gene products. If the second is
true then this factor must act early in ontogeny, sometime during the foetal period,
infancy or early childhood, as these are the periods in which most of the body size
determination seems to occur (Bogin 1988, Proos 1993, Delemarrevandewaal 1993,
Henneberg and Louw 1990, 1993). These criteria are met by changing exposure to
pathogens, natural or contained in vaccines, which produce immune responses that
may be biochemically linked to determinants of stature, and by foods which contain
chemical substances influencing regulators of growth. For instance, beef and poultry
may contain additional animal growth hormones used to obtain higher yield on
commercial farms (Moishezon-Blank 1991). Ingestion of dairy products containing
similar natural or artificial compounds is another possibility. Bigger is not always
better, and continued secular increases of body height may be manifestations of the
introduction of undesirable substances into human bodies.

Acknowledgements. I thank Kosette M Lambert and Carmen de Miguel for their

help with anthropometric survey of Aborigines and with some technical aspects of
this study.
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