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Suppression Sheet
Variable Definition
Country Name of country or region
R0 Basic Reproduction number (average number of secondary infection by a typical infection in
Strategy "Unmitigated" = no intervention
"0.2 deaths per 100,000 per week trigger" = suppression triggered when weekly death rate r
"1.6 deaths per 100,000 per week trigger" = suppression triggered when weekly death rate r
Social_distance Proportional reduction in contact rate in general population modelled
total_pop Total population according to 2020 World Population Prospects (https://population.un.org/w
total_infected Final total population infected by the end of the pandemic.
total_death Final total deaths by the end of the pandemic (assuming China-like age-severity profile and h
total_hospital Final total individuals requiring hospitalisation by the end of the pandemic (assuming China-
peak_hospital_bed_demand Number of hospital beds occupied at the peak of the epidemic (i.e. maximum demand/occu
total_critical Final total individuals requiring critical care by the end of the pandemic (assuming China-like
peak_critical_bed_demand Number of critical care beds occupied at the peak of the epidemic (i.e. maximum demand/o
Note: these are derived from a stochastic, dynamical model rather than analytically as in t
ction by a typical infection in an unconstrained epidemic and wholly susceptible population)
pidemic is mitigated interventions to limit contacts in the general population including social distancing;
pidemic is mitigated through interventions to limit contacts in the general population including social distancing, alongside enhanced s
(https://population.un.org/wpp/)
her than analytically as in the Mitigation worksheet and so there is a small difference between the two (typically <1%).
ing, alongside enhanced social distancing of over 70s (modelled as a 60% reduction in contact rate);
pically <1%).