Corporate foresight: the alien nature of business

visioning and pre-emptive action

Procter, Alan R . Pulp & Paper Canada ; Westmount  Vol. 105, Iss. 6,  (Jun 2004): 49.

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ABSTRACT (ABSTRACT)
There has never been a business arena quite like the "New Economy" that has resulted in so many lessons, so fast,
in what NOT to do. Corporate foresight, business intelligence and early warning systems are promising tool-based
solutions, but many executives still fail to place these on their list of priorities. Achieving effective corporate
foresight is a matter of personal perception and is therefore difficult to address from an executive viewpoint.
Be more curious: Surround yourself with inquisitive people and encourage them. Look for secondary
consequences in emerging trends, challenge common assumptions, search for anomalies and opposites. Don't
settle for obvious explanations, and follow Yogi Berra's advice: "You can see a lot of things by lookin'."
Create alternatives: The future will unfold in many diverse ways. Welcome this uncertainty as an invitation to
unlimited possibilities. Lee Iacocca demanded at least a "chocolate and vanilla" alternative when making an
important decision. If more than five million dollars was at stake, he would also insist on having a "strawberry"
option.

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There has never been a business arena quite like the "New Economy" that has resulted in so many lessons, so fast,
in what NOT to do. Corporate foresight, business intelligence and early warning systems are promising tool-based
solutions, but many executives still fail to place these on their list of priorities. Achieving effective corporate
foresight is a matter of personal perception and is therefore difficult to address from an executive viewpoint.
Why does the art of foresight remain a mystery? The following are some of the most common pitfalls.
Discounting future problems: We tend to apply a psychological discount rate to our perception of future problems.
Therefore, distant potential problems are perceived as posing no immediate threat. Hastily implemented
countermeasures may plug the leaks in a crisis, but crucial reaction time has been wasted and the opportunity to
invent a solution has been lost.
No time for planning: Today, companies must move quickly to secure a competitive edge. There is little incentive
to spend time or effort on long-term strategic planning when easily identifiable surgical strikes can quickly result in
a visible win. Studies show that executives spend less than four percent of their time on future-oriented planning
tasks.
Overconfidence and excessive optimism: Entrepreneurs are often obsessed with their personal business ideas or
inventions, blindfolding themselves to reality. Confidence in ones ingenuity and infallibility should not be a
restraint in developing a "what if?" Plan B strategy.
Self-fulfilling prophecy: The human psyche urges us to keep our own ideas and opinions free from conflict.
Intuitively, we seek evidence to support our beliefs and decisions.
Overwhelming complexity: Many organizations see the future unfolding on the edge of chaos, leading to a single
inevitable outcome that victimizes them. This notion often stalls foresight activities.
Lack of imagination: Today's demanding workplaces have fostered specialization and narrow-focused tasks.
Employees and executives alike are trained to avoid ambiguity, speculation and hypotheses, and instead strive for

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clarity, structure and precision. Therefore, we expect the future to assume familiar shapes. However, the future is
an abstraction; a projection of times to come that requires imagination if it is to be successfully anticipated.
Extrapolation: Many companies still believe that the future will be similar to the past, only bigger. However, today's
business environment is constantly changing and yesterday's successful remedies guarantee nothing for
tomorrow. Many managers struggle to shed old mindsets that are clouded by nostalgia.
Why is this important?
In order to gain the competitive edge and be free of confining assumptions, executives and managers must
acquire new skills:
Be more curious: Surround yourself with inquisitive people and encourage them. Look for secondary
consequences in emerging trends, challenge common assumptions, search for anomalies and opposites. Don't
settle for obvious explanations, and follow Yogi Berra's advice: "You can see a lot of things by lookin'."
Learn to think out of your self-constructed box: Thinking in the future tense requires a different and wider
perspective. Read articles you would normally ignore. Put yourself in the role of other people in order to
understand their perspective.
Create alternatives: The future will unfold in many diverse ways. Welcome this uncertainty as an invitation to
unlimited possibilities. Lee Iacocca demanded at least a "chocolate and vanilla" alternative when making an
important decision. If more than five million dollars was at stake, he would also insist on having a "strawberry"
option.
Be optimistic about the future: The future is not yet with us, so there is ample opportunity to influence it in your
favor. If you look carefully, you will be surprised at how much influence you can wield. People often overestimate
what they can accomplish in the short term, but underestimate what can be accomplished over the long haul.
Abraham Lincoln said that the good thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time. This presents time
enough to shape ones specific future and reduce its complexity.
Alan R. Procter provides strategic consulting services to organizations looking for new competitive capabilities. He
can be reached through www.alanprocter.com

DETAILS

Subject: Managerial skills; Business intelligence; Corporate management

Classification: 9172: Canada

Publication title: Pulp &Paper Canada; Westmount

Volume: 105

Issue: 6

Pages: 49

Number of pages: 0

Publication year: 2004

Publication date: Jun 2004

Publisher: Annex Publishing &Printing, Inc.

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 Place of publication: Westmount

Country of publication: Canada, Westmount

Publication subject: Forests And Forestry--Lumber And Wood, Paper And Pulp

ISSN: 03164004

Source type: Trade Journals

Language of publication: English

Document type: Commentary

Document feature: Illustrations

ProQuest document ID: 232766746

Document URL: https://search.proquest.com/docview/232766746?accountid=45853

Copyright: Copyright Southam Business Communications, Inc. Jun 2004

Last updated: 2012-01-28

Database: ProQuest Central

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