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MANAGEMENT
We all dream of beating the market and being super investors and spend an
inordinate amount of time and resources in this endeavor. Consequently, we are easy prey
for the magic bullets and the secret formulae offered by eager salespeople pushing their
stuff. In spite of our best efforts, most of us fail in our attempts to be more than average
investors. Nonetheless, we keep trying, hoping that we can be more like the investing
legends – another Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch. We read the words written by and
about successful investors, hoping to find in them the key to their stock-picking abilities,
so that we can replicate them and become wealthy quickly.
Investing in shares and debentures is profitable as well as exiting. It is indeed
rewarding, but involves a great deal of risk and calls for scientific knowledge and
forecasting skill. In such investments, both rational as well as emotional responses are
involved. Investing in securities is considered as one of the best avenues to invest ones
savings while it is acknowledged to be one of the most risky avenues of investment.
It is unusual to find investors investing their entire money in one single security.
Instead, they tend to invest in a group of securities. Such a group of securities is called a
portfolio. Creation of a portfolio helps to reduce risks without sacrificing returns.
Portfolio management deals with the analysis of individual securities as well as with the
theory and practice of optimally combining securities into portfolios. An investor who
understands the fundamental principals and analytical aspects of portfolio management
has a better chance of success.
1) Interest Rate Risk: This arises due to variability in the interest rates from time to
time. A change in the interest rates establishes an inverse relationship in the price of
security i.e. price of securities tend to move inversely with change in rate of interest, long
term securities show greater variability in the price with respect to interest rate changes
than short term securities. Interest rate risk vulnerability for different securities is as
under:
2) Purchasing Power Risk: It is also known as inflation risk also emanates from the
very fact that inflation affects the purchasing power adversely. Nominal return contains
both the real return component and an inflation premium in a transaction involving risk to
compensate for inflation over an investment holding period. Inflation rates vary over time
and investors are caught unaware when rate of inflation changes unexpectedly causing
erosion in the value of realized rate of return and expected return. Purchasing power risk
is more in inflationary conditions especially in respect of bonds and fixed income
securities. It is not desirable to invest in such securities during inflationary periods.
Purchasing power risk is however, less in flexible income securities like equity share or
common stock where rise in dividend income off-sets increase in the rate of inflation and
provides advantage of capital gains.
3) Business Risk: Business risk emanates from sale and purchase of securities affected
by business cycles, technological changes, etc. Business cycle affect all types of
securities viz. there is cheerful movement in boom due to bullish trend in stock prices
whereas bearish trend in depression brings down fall in the prices of all types of
securities. Flexible income securities are more affected than fixed rate securities during
depression due to decline in their market price.
• They study economic environment affecting the capital market and clients
investment.
• They study securities market and evaluate price trend of shares and securities in
which investment is to be made.
• They maintain complete and updated financial performance data of Blue-Chip
and other companies.
• They keep a track on latest policies and guidelines of Government of India, RBI
and Stock Exchanges.
• They study problems of industry affecting securities market and the attitude of
investors.
• They study the financial behaviour of development financial institutions and
other players in the capital market to find out sentiments in the capital market.
• They counsel the prospective investors on share market and suggest investments
in certain assured securities.
• They carry out investments in securities or sale or purchase of securities on
behalf of the clients to attain maximum return at lesser risk.
• A portfolio manager shall render at all time high standards of services exercise
due diligence, ensure proper care and exercise independent professional
judgment. The portfolio manager shall either avoid any conflict of interest in his
investment or disinvestments decision, or where any conflict of interest arises;
ensure fair treatment to all his customers. He shall disclose to the clients, possible
sources of conflict of duties and interest, while providing unbiased services. A
portfolio manager shall not place his interest above those of his clients.
• A portfolio manager shall not make any statement or become privy to any act,
practice or unfair competition, which is likely to be harmful to the interests of
other portfolio managers or it likely to place such other portfolio managers in a
disadvantageous position in relation to the portfolio manager himself, while
competing for or executing any assignment.
• A portfolio manager shall not make any exaggerated statement, whether oral or
written, to the client either about the qualification or the capability to render
certain services or his achievements in regard to services rendered to other
clients.
• A portfolio manager shall not disclose to any clients or press any confidential
information about his clients, which has come to his knowledge.
• The portfolio manager shall where necessary and in the interest of the client take
adequate steps for registration of the transfer of the client’s securities and for
claiming and receiving dividend, interest payment and other rights accruing to
the client. He shall also take necessary action for conversion of securities and
subscription of/or rights in accordance with the client’s instruction.
• Portfolio manager shall ensure that the investors are provided with true and
adequate information without making any misguiding or exaggerated claims and
are made aware of attendant risks before they take any investment decision.
• He should render the best possible advice to the client having regard to the
client’s needs and the environment, and his own professional skills.
• Ensure that all professional dealings are affected in a prompt, efficient and cost
effective manner.
PORTFOLIO SELECTION
The objective of every investor is to maximize his returns and minimize his risk.
Diversification is the method adopted to reduce the risk. It essentially results in the
construction of portfolios. The proper goal of construction of portfolios would be to
generate a portfolio that provides the highest return and lowest risk. Such a portfolio
would be an optimal portfolio. The process of finding the optimal portfolio is described
as portfolio selection.
The conceptual framework and analytical tools for determining the optimal
portfolio in disciplined and objective manner have been provided by Harry Markowitz in
his pioneering work on portfolio analysis described in his 1952 “JOURNAL OF
FINANCE” article and subsequent book in 1959. His method of portfolio selection is
come to be known as Markowitz model. In fact, Markowitz work marked the beginning
of what is today the Modern Portfolio Theory.
If we compare portfolios 4 and 5, for the same variance of 8.1 portfolio no. 5
gives a higher expected return of 11.7, making it more efficient than portfolio no. 4.
Again, if we compare portfolios 7 and 8 for the same expected return of 13.5%, the
variance is lower for portfolio no.7, making it more efficient than portfolio no. 8. Thus
the selection of the portfolios by the investor will be guided by two criteria:
• Given two portfolios with the same expected return, the investor will prefer the
one with the lower risk.
• Given two portfolios with the same risk, the investor will prefer the one with the
higher expected returns.
These criteria are based on the assumption that investors are rational and also risk averse.
As they are rational they would prefer more returns to less returns. As they are risk
averse, they would prefer less risk to more risk.
The concept of efficient sets can be illustrated with the help of a graph. The
expected returns and the variance can be depicted on a XY graph, measuring the expected
returns on the Y-axis and the variance on the X-axis. The figure below depicts such a
graph.
As a single point in the risk-return space would represent each possible portfolio in the
opportunity set or the feasible set of portfolio enclosed within the two axes of the graph.
The shaded area in the graph represents the set of all possible portfolios that can be
constructed from a given set of securities. This opportunity set of portfolios takes a
concave shape because it consists of portfolios containing securities that are less than
perfectly correlated with each other.
Let us closely examine the diagram above. Consider portfolios F and E. Both the
portfolios have the same expected return but portfolio E has less risk. Hence portfolio E
would be preferred to portfolio F. Now consider portfolios C and E. Both have the same
risk, but portfolio E offers more return for the same risk. Hence portfolio E would be
preferred to portfolio C. Thus for any point in the risk-return space, an investor would
like to move as far as possible in the direction of increasing returns and also as far as
possible in the direction of decreasing risk. Effectively, he would be moving towards the
left in search of decreasing risk and upwards in search of increasing returns.
Let us consider portfolios C and A. Portfolio C would be preferred to portfolio A because
it offers less risk for the same level of return. In the opportunity set of portfolios
represented in the diagram, portfolio C has the lowest risk compared to all other
portfolios. Here portfolio C in this diagram represents the Global Minimum Variance
Portfolio.
The efficient frontier is a concave curve in the risk-return space that extends from the
minimum variance portfolio to the maximum return portfolio.
The selection of the optimal portfolio thus depends on the investor's risk aversion, or
conversely on his risk tolerance. This can be graphically represented through a series of
risk return utility curves or indifference curves. The indifference curves of an investor are
shown in Fig. Each curve represents different combinations of risk and return all of
which are equally satisfactory to the concerned investor. The investor is indifferent
between the successive points in the curve. Each successive curve moving upwards to the
left represents a higher level of satisfaction or utility. The investor's goal would be to
maximize his utility by moving up to the higher utility curve. The optimal portfolio for an
investor would be the one at the point of tangency between the efficient frontier and his
risk-return utility or indifference curve.
This is shown in Fig. The point O' represents the optimal portfolio. Markowitz used the
technique of quadratic programming to identify the efficient portfolios. Using the
expected return and risk of each security under consideration and the covariance
estimates for each pair of securities, he calculated risk and return for all possible
portfolios. Then, for any specific value of expected portfolio return, he determined the
least risk portfolio using quadratic programming. With another value of expected
portfolio return, a similar procedure again gives the minimum risk portfolio. The process
is repeated with different values of expected return, the resulting minimum risk portfolios
constitute the set of efficient portfolio
PORTFOLIO EVALUATION
Two decades ago portfolio evaluation was not considered as an integral part of portfolio
management. Portfolio evaluation has evolved as an important aspect of portfolio
management over the last two decades. Moreover, the evaluation process itself has
changed from crude return calculations to rather detailed explorations of risk and return
and the sources of each.
While evaluating the performance of a portfolio, the return earned on the portfolio has
to be evaluated in the context of the risk associated with that portfolio. One approach
would be to group portfolios into equivalent risk classes and then compare returns of
portfolios within each risk category. An alternative approach would be to specifically
adjust the return for the riskiness of the portfolio by developing risk adjusted return
measures and use these for evaluating portfolios across differing risk levels.
Self Evaluation:
While individual investors undertake the investment activity on their own, the
investment decisions are taken by them. They construct and manage their own portfolio
of securities. In such a situation, the investor would like to evaluate the performance of
his portfolio in order to identify the mistakes committed by him. This self evaluation
will enable the investor to improve his skills and achieve better performance in future.
Evaluation of Portfolio Managers:
A mutual fund or investment company usually creates different portfolios with
different objectives aimed at different sets of investors. Each such portfolio may be
entrusted to different Professional Portfolio Managers who are responsible for the
investment decisions regarding the portfolio entrusted to each of them. In such a
situation, the organisation would like to evaluate the performance of each portfolio so
as to compare the performance of the different portfolio managers.
Evaluation of Groups:
As academics or researchers, we may want to evaluate the performance of a whole
group of investors and compare it with another group of investors who use different
techniques or who have different skills or access to different information.
Evaluation of Groups:
As academics or researchers, we may want to evaluate the performance of a whole
group of investors and compare it with another group of investors who use different
techniques or who have different skills or access to different information.
EVALUATION PERSPECTIVE
A portfolio comprises several individual securities. In the building up of the
portfolio several transactions of purchase and sale of securities take place. Thus several
transactions in several securities are needed to create and revise a portfolio of
securities. Hence the evaluation may be carried out from different perspectives or
viewpoints such as a transactions view, security view or portfolio view.
Transaction View:
An investor may attempt to evaluate every transaction of purchase and sale of
securities. Whenever a security is bought or sold, the transaction is evaluated as regards
its correctness and profitability.
Security View:
Each security included in the portfolio has been purchased at a particular price. At the
end of the holding period, the market price of the security may be higher or lower than
its cost price or purchase price. Further, during the holding period, interest or dividend
might have been received in respect of the security. Thus it may be possible to evaluate
the profitability of holding each security separately. This is evaluation from the security
view point.
Portfolio View:
A portfolio is not a simple aggregation of a random group of securities. It is a
combination of carefully selected securities, combined in a specific way so as to reduce
the risk of investment to the minimum. An investor may attempt to evaluate the
performance of the portfolio as a whole without examining the performance of
individual securities within the portfolio. This is evaluation from the portfolio view.
Though evaluation may be attempted at the transaction level, or the security level, such
evaluations would be incomplete, inadequate and often misleading. Investment is an
activity involving risk. Proper Evaluation of the investment activity must therefore
consider return along with risk involved. But risk is best defined at the portfolio level
and not at the security level or transaction level. Hence the best perspective for
evaluation is the portfolio view.
Sharpe Ratio:
It is the ratio of the reward or risk premium to the variability of return or risk as
measured by the variance of the return.
Treynor Ratio:
It is the ratio of reward to the volatility of return as measured by the portfolio beta.
PORTFOLIO REVISION
• Transaction cost: Buying and selling of securities involve transaction costs such
as commission and brokerage. Frequent buying and selling of securities for
portfolio revision may push up transaction costs thereby reducing the gains from
portfolio revision. Hence, the transaction costs involved in portfolio revision may
act as a constraint to timely revision of portfolios.
• Taxes: Tax is payable on the capital gains arising from sale of securities. Usually,
long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than short-term capital gains. To
qualify as long-term capital gain, a security must be held by an investor for a
period of not less than 12 months before sale. Frequent sale of securities in the
course of periodic portfolio revision or adjustment will result in short-term capital
gains, which would be taxed at a higher rate compared to long-term capital gains.
The higher tax of short-term capital gains may act as a constraint to frequent
portfolio revisions.
• Statutory stipulations: The large portfolios in every country are managed by
investment companies and mutual funds. These institutional investors are
normally governed by certain statutory stipulations regarding their investment
activity. These stipulations often act as constraints in timely portfolio revision.
FORMULA PLANS:
In the market the prices of securities fluctuate. Ideally, investors should buy when prices
are low and sell when prices are high. If portfolio revision is done according to this
principle, investors would be able to benefit from the price fluctuations in the securities
market. But investors are hesitant to buy when prices are low either expecting the prices
to fall further or fearing that the prices would not move further up again. Similarly, when
prices are high, investors hesitate to sell because they feel that the prices will fall further
and they may realize larger profits.
Thus, left to themselves, investors will not be acting in a way required to benefit
from price fluctuations. Hence certain mechanical revision techniques have been
developed to enable the investor to take advantage of the price fluctuations in the market.
The technique is referred as Formula Plans.
Formula plans represent an attempt to exploit the price fluctuations in the market
and make them a source of profit to the investor. They make the decisions on the timing
of buying and selling securities automatically and eliminate the emotions surrounding the
timing decisions. Formula plans consist of predetermined rules regarding when to buy or
sell and how much to buy and sell. These predetermined rules call for specific actions
when there are changes in the securities market.
aggressive portfolio constant, i.e. at the original amount invested in the aggressive
portfolio.
As share prices fluctuate, the value of the aggressive portfolio keeps changing. When
share prices are increasing, the total value of the aggressive portfolio increases. The
investor has to sell some of his shares from his portfolio to bring down the total value of
the aggressive portfolio to the level of his original investment in it. The sale proceeds will
be invested I the defensive portfolio by buying bonds and debentures
On the contrary, when share prices are falling, the total value of the aggressive portfolio
would also decline. To keep the total value of the aggressive portfolio at its original level,
the investor has to buy some shares from the market to be included in his portfolio. For
this purpose, a part of the defensive portfolio will be liquidated to raise the money needed
to buy additional shares.
Under this plan, the investor is effectively transferring funds from the aggressive
portfolio to the defensive portfolio and thereby booking profit when share prices are
increasing. Funds are transferred from the defensive portfolio to the aggressive portfolio
when share prices are low. Thus the plan helps the investor to buy shares when their
prices are low and sell them when their prices are high.
In order to implement this plan, the investor has to decide the action points, i.e., when he
should make the transfer of funds to keep the rupee value of the aggressive portfolio
constant. These action points, or revision points, should be predetermined and should be
chosen carefully. The revision points have a significant effect on the returns of the
investor. For instance, the revision points may be predetermined as 10 per cent, 15 per
cent, 20 per cent etc. above or below the original investment in the aggressive portfolio.
If the revision points are too close, the number of transactions would be more and the
transaction costs would increase reducing the benefits of revision. If the revision points
are set too far apart, it may not be possible to profit from the price fluctuations occurring
between these revision points.
There are different formula plans for implementing passive portfolio revision.
Some of them are enumerated below: -
Constant Rupee Value Plan:
This is one of the most commonly used formula plans. In this plan the investor constructs
two portfolios, one aggressive consisting of equity shares and the other one defensive
consisting of bonds and debentures. The purpose of this plan is to keep the value of the
Example: We can understand the working of the “constant rupee value plan” by
considering an example. Let us consider an investor who has Rs. 1,00,000 for investment.
He decides to invest Rs. 50,000 in an aggressive portfolio of equity shares and the
remaining Rs. 50,000 in a defensive portfolio of bonds and debentures. He purchases
1250 shares selling at Rs. 40 per share for his aggressive portfolio. The revision points
are fixed as 20 per cent above or below the original investment of Rs. 50,000.
After the construction of the portfolios, the share price will fluctuate. If the price of the
share increases to Rs. 45, the value of the aggressive portfolio increases to Rs. 56,250
(that is, 1250 x Rs. 45). Since the revision points are fixed at 20 per cent above or below
the original investment, the investor will act only when the value of the aggressive
portfolio increases to Rs. 60,000 or falls to Rs. 40,000. If the price of the share increases
to Rs. 48 or above, the value of the aggressive portfolio will exceed Rs. 60,000. Let us
suppose that the price of the share increases to Rs. 50, the value of the aggressive
portfolio will be Rs. 62,500. The investor will sell shares worth Rs. 12,500 (that is 250
shares at Rs. 50 per share) and transfer the amount to the defensive portfolio by buying
bonds for Rs. 12,500. The value of the aggressive and defensive portfolios would now be
Rs. 50,000 and Rs. 62,500 respectively. The aggressive portfolio now has only 1000
shares valued at Rs. 50 per share.
Let us now suppose that the share price falls to Rs. 40 per share. The value of the
aggressive portfolio would then be Rs. 40,000 (i.e., 1000 shares x Rs. 40) which is 20 per
cent less than the original investment. The investor now has to buy shares worth Rs.
10,000 (that is, 250 shares at Rs. 40 per share) to bring the value of the aggressive
portfolio to its original level of Rs. 50,000. The money required for buying the shares will
be raised by selling bonds from the defensive portfolio.
The two portfolios now will have values of Rs. 50,000 (aggressive) and Rs. 52,500 (i.e.,
Rs. 62,500 - Rs. 10,000) (defensive), aggregating to Rs. 1,02,500. It may be recalled that
the investor started with Rs. 1,00,000 as investment in the two portfolios. Thus, when the
`constant rupee value plan' is being implemented, funds will be transferred from one
portfolio to the other, whenever the value of the aggressive portfolio increases or declines
to the predetermined levels.
Let us assume that an investor starts with Rs. 20,000, investing Rs. 10,000 each in the
aggressive portfolio and the defensive portfolio. The initial ratio is then 1:1. He has
predetermined the revision points as ± 0.20. As share price increases the value of the
aggressive portfolio would rise. When the value of the aggressive portfolio rises to Rs.
12,000, the ratio becomes 1.2:1 (i.e., Rs. 12,000: Rs. 10,000). Shares worth Rs. 1,000 will
be sold and the amount transferred to the defensive portfolio by buying bonds. Now the
value of both the portfolios would be Rs. 11,000 and the ratio would become 1:1.
Now let us assume that the share prices are falling. The value of the aggressive portfolio
would start declining. If, for instance, the value declines to Rs. 8,500, the ratio becomes
0.77:1 (i.e., Rs. 8.500: Rs. 1,000). The ratio has declined by more than 0.20 points. The
investor now has to make the value of both portfolios equal. He has to buy shares worth
Rs. 1,250 by selling bonds for an equivalent amount from his defensive portfolio. Now
the value of the aggressive portfolio increases by Rs. 1.250 and that of the defensive
portfolio decreases by Rs. 1,250. The values of both portfolios become Rs. 9,750 and the
ratio becomes 1:1.The adjustment of portfolios is done periodically in this manner.
Dollar Cost Averaging
This is another method of passive portfolio revision. This is, however, different from the
two Formula Plans discussed above. All Formula Plans assume that stock prices fluctuate
up and down in cycles. Dollar cost averaging utilizes this cyclic movement in share
prices to construct a portfolio at low cost.
The Plan stipulates that the investor invest a constant sum, such as Rs. 5,000, Rs. 10,000,
etc, in a specified share or portfolio of shares regularly at periodical intervals, such as a
month, two months, a quarter, etc. regardless of the price of the shares at the time of
investment. This periodic investment is to be continued over a fairly long period to cover
a complete cycle of share price movements.
If the Plan is implemented over a complete cycle of stock prices, the investor will obtain
his shares at a lower average cost per share than the average price prevailing in the
market over the period. This occurs because more shares would be purchased at lower
prices than at higher prices.
The Dollar Cost Averaging is really a technique of building up a portfolio over a period
of time. The Plan does not envisage withdrawal of funds from the portfolio in between.
When a large portfolio has been built up over a complete cycle of share price movements,
the investor may switch over to one of the other formula plans for its subsequent revision.
The “dollar cost averaging” is specially suited to investors who have periodic sums to
invest.
The various formula plans attempt to make portfolio revision a simple and almost
mechanical exercise enabling the investor to automatically buy shares when their prices
are low and sell them when their prices are high. But formula plans have their limitations.
By their very nature they are inflexible. Further, these plans do not indicate which
securities from the portfolio are to be sold and which securities are to be bought to be
included in the portfolio. Only active portfolio revision can provide answers to these
questions
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