Example of Qualitative Risk Analysis (Click here for updates to the file) : ww

1) Planning Activities
1.1) Define Probability and Impact Scales
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other
and some times from one project to the other in the same company

To be Defined in Planning
Example of Probability Scale
Very High 90% Highly Likely to Occur
High 70% Very Likely to Occur
Medium 50% Likely to Occur
Low 30% Unlikely to Occur
Very Low 10% Highly unlikely to Occur

To be Defined in Planning
Example of Impact Scale
Very High 80% Major Impact
High 40% Significant Impact
Medium 20% Measurable Impact
Low 10% Minor Impact
Very Low 5% Insignificant Impact

1.2) Define How Risks are going to be ranked based on Probability

Impact
1.2.a) Probability and Impact Matrix , or
1.2.b) Risk Priority Scale , or
1.2.c) Risk Rating Matrix

Option A :Probability and Impact Matrix

PmBok 4th Edition

Probability an
Probability
Option B : Risk Priority Scale 5 Levels
To be Defined in Planning
Example of Risk Priority Scale
Option B : Risk Priority Sca
To be Defined in Planning
Example of Risk Priority

0.9
 Score
Priority Color Score To Priority
From
Very High Black 81 100 High
High Red 56 80 Medium
Medium Yellow 36 55 Low
Low No Fill 21 35
Very Low Blue 0 20
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other

Option C: Risk Rating Matrix 5 Cells Option C : 3 Cells

Very
Med
High

k Probability
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other

2) Risk Analysis

L
2.1) Risks and Impact Qualitatively Evaluation

ID Risk
1 Risk # 01
Probability
Very High
Effect on
Project
High
High
2 Risk # 02 Low Medium

M
3 Risk # 03 Very High Very High
bability

4 Risk # 04 Medium Very Low

5 Risk # 05 Medium High

V
6 Risk # 06 Very Low Medium

2.2) Probability and Impact Scores are computed

Medium
Based on Probability and Impact Scales defined in Item (1.1)

(Computed
Based on
Probability
Scale )
(Compute
d Based
on Impact
Scale )
L
Effect on Probability Impact
ID Risk Probability

V
Project Score Score
1 Risk # 01 Very High High 0.9 0.4
2 Risk # 02 Low Medium 0.3 0.2
3 Risk # 03 Very High Very High 0.9 0.8
4 Risk # 04 Medium Very Low 0.5 0.05
5 Risk # 05 Medium High 0.5 0.4
6 Risk # 06 Very Low Medium 0.1 0.2
2.3 Risk Scores and/or Ranks are Computed
For option A , the example shows the scope as result of Multiplying Impart and Probablity scores
For option B , the example shows the scope as result of Average of Impact and Probablity scores
For option
BasedCon, the
Probability
Rank is computed
and Impact
Directly
Scales from
defined
thein
Matrix
Item (I)

Option A Option B Option C

(Based on (Based on
(Based on
Probability Risk
Multiplication Average Risk Rating
and Impact Priority
Matrix )
Matrix ) Scale )
(Risk (Risk (Risk (Risk (Risk
ID Risk
Score ) Rank ) Score ) Rank ) Rank )
1 Risk # 01 0.36 (High ) 0.65 (High ) (Very High )
2 Risk # 02 0.06 (Medium ) 0.25 (Low ) (Low )
3 Risk # 03 0.72 (High ) 0.85 (Very High )(Very High )
4 Risk # 04 0.03 (Low ) 0.28 (Low ) (Very Low )
5 Risk # 05 0.20 (Medium ) 0.45 (Medium ) (High )
6 Risk # 06 0.02 (Low ) 0.15 (Very Low ) (Very Low )
Values and Color Codes Vary from One Company to the other

3) Prioritized List of Risks if produced

Example Based on Option A Above

Option A
Effect on
ID Risk Probability Rate
Project
3 Risk # 03 Very High Very High (High )
1 Risk # 01 Medium High (High )
5 Risk # 05 Medium Medium (Medium )
2 Risk # 02 Low Medium (Medium )
4 Risk # 04 Medium Very Low (Low )
6 Risk # 06 Very Low Medium (Low )
pdates to the file) : www.officenan.et

based on Probability and

ty and Impact Ma
Option B : Risk Priority Scale 3 Levels
To be Defined in Planning
Example of Risk Priority Scale
T
0.05 0.09
 Score
Color Score To
From
Red 76 100
Yellow 26 75
No Fill 0 25

ption C : 3 Cells

High Medium
k Probability

Medium Low
Impart and Probablity scores (as per PMBOK Example)
Impact and Probablity scores (Commonly used Method)

ery High )

ery High )
ery Low )

ery Low )
the other