Technion - Computer Science Department - Technical Report CS0055 - 1975

THE HIT
PROBABILITY OF A SINGLE AA ROUND AS

A FUNCTION OF THE SYSTEM ERRORS
by
z. Ritz and I.Amit
Technical Report No.55
November 1975
Limited Distribution Notice
This report has been submitted for publication elsewhere and has been issued as a
technical report for early dissemination of its contents.
As a courtesy to the intended publisher, it should not be widely distributed until
after the date of outside publ ication.
Technion - Computer Science Department - Technical Report CS0055 - 1975

ABSTRACT
Two methods are employed for estimating the hit-probabil ity of
a single A.A. round fired at a moving spherical target. First, a
simulation-program for a digital-computer is constructed then an
analytic formula is derived, which estimates the hit-probabil ity
as an explicit function of the accuracy of the values of some
parameters,determining the trajectories of target and shell.

~
Comparison of the estimates obtained by the two methods reveals

that for ~ specific category of encounters the derived formula is a
reli~ble and convenient instrument for hit-probability estimation.

- I
I, I NTRODUCT! ON
Whether or not a hit will be scored upon firing a single A,A. round
at a moving target is dependent on many parameters which determine the
trajectories of the target and the shell, among them the initial and instan
taneous velocities of target and shell, atmospheric conditions at the time
of fire, wind velocity, etc, Due to the difficulty of predicting before
hand the values of the various parameters at the time of fire, there is no
assurance that aiming is indeed accurate, therefore it is customary to
refer to the IIhit-probabil ity of the A.A, round ll •
In order to estimate the hit-probability two methods are used. First
a simulation-program (SP) which simulates the aiming and firing process by

IIMonte-Carlo ll methods is constructed, We then derive an analytic formula,
which estimates the hit-probability as an explicit function of the accuracy

of the values of some of the parameters which determine the trajectories of
target and shell.
The SP serves as a IIl a boratory ll for checking various shell-target
encounters, Because of the myriad situations which can be derived from
various combinations of target configurations, target trajectories, muzzle
velocities, etc" we restrict the investigations to spherical targets which
move at constant speed along a straight I ine during the time of fire.
Comparison of the derived formula's estimates of the hit-probabil ity
with those of the SP, assuming the SP results to be accurate standards

- 2
for comparison. reveals that in encounters similar to those which we
investigate. the analytic formula serves as a reliable and convenient
instrument.

- 3
2. THE SIMULATION-PROGRAM
In order to reach an accurate estimation of the hit-probabil ity, the
SP (based on the aiming principles stated in Wrigley [8J· which are
the same for most conventional A.A. systems) must correctly simulate
both the gun-aiming process and the errors which are inherent to it.
The object of the gun-aiming system is to point the gun barrel
toward the Theoretical Impact Point (TIP) defining the TIP to be the
point in space at which a properly directed projectile fired at the right
moment will strike the target, provided the estimates of target and shell
trajectories are correct.
We divide the main errors appearing during this process roughly into
two categories: errors which arise from erroneous prediction of the
trajectories of target and shell and therefore lead to the wrong TIP-the
prediction-errors; and errors which arise from deviations in the aiming
process due to mechanical I imitations of the gun system and ball istic
dispersion of the shell the dispersion -errors.
In order to implement the SP, we make the following assumptions:
2.1 The target is spherical with ra*i~s r and moves at a constant speed
u along a straight line at the time of fire. This trajectory is

A A
determined by two independent angles e and ~, the dive and course
angles respectively of the target in relation to the gun (see Fig. 1).
We derive the above restriction from the evidence that aircraft which attack

z
-~-

- 5
point ground targets with conventional armamant, such as bombs and rockets,
attempt to fly at a constant speed and in a straight 1ine during the attack
stage, which is also the stage at which the A.A. batteries usually fire
at the aircraft (see Schreier [6J).
2.2 Shell trajectory is determined by the muzzle-velocity v and by two

" "
independent angles a and S, the elevation and prediction angles
respectively of the gun (see Fig. 1). The instantaneous position vector
of the projectile is calculated by equations (1) and (2).
Usually, a system of differential equations must be solved in order to
accurately calculate the ball istic trajectory of a shell (see Macshane [5J).
For our purposes, equations (1) and (2) are sufficiently accurate, especially
since we deal with short range flat trajectories.
2.3 The gun system estimates of target speed, dive and course anglesarasimulated
" "
as normally distributed random variables N(uo ,0 u2 ) , N(a 0 , 0a2 ) , N(epo'O~)
respectively, with the actual values of these parameters uo ' " "
ao' epo
as means and au, 0a' 0ep' the standard deviations, as input variables.
2.4 The actual muzzle-velocity is simulated as a normally distributed random

variab'le N(V,0 2 ) with the nominal muzzle-velocity as a mean, and the
o v
standard deviation as an input variable.
~ The elevation and prediction angles at which the shell is actually fired
are simulated as two independent normally distributed random variables

" , 2 " '" "
N(Ol.t,Oa)' NU~l 'Oa) with al , 13 1 ( i.e. the angles at which the shell

- 6
must be fired at the correct moment in order to hit a target moving at

A A
u, e and ep) as the means, and the standard deviations OCt' Os as

input variables.
Assumptions 2.3 and 2.4 allow us to simulate the prediction-errors and
Assumptions 2.4 and 2.5, to simulate the dispersion-errors.
2.6 The target position at the moment of fire (t = 0) is known accurately.
We assume that actual errors in estimating this position can be represented
by the errors in estimating the trajectory and speed of the target.
2.7 A hit is scored when and if at any moment the centers of target and
shell are at a distance of less than r from each other.
The trajectories of target and shell are displayed in a three-dimensional
rectangular coordinate system (X,Y,Z), where the origin 0 is at the center
of the gun position; coordinate Y is along the instantaneous position vector

of target at time t=O (point B); the X coordinate is perpendicular to
the Y coordinate, such that the XY plane is defined by gun position 0,
target position at moment of fire B and the TIP c; the Z coordinate is

perpendicular to the XY plane (see Fig. 1).
A A
-+
Let y(t;v,Ct,S) be the instantaneous position vector of the shell at
time t, 0 ~ t ~ T, where T is a given time 1imit (e.g., self-destruction
time of
Technion shell);
- Computer Sciencelet w(t)- Technical
Department be the average
Report CS0055 -speed
1975 of the projectile along
A A
-+ .
- 7
where k is an input variable, a drag constant specific to each gun type,
and v is the muzzle velocity.
-+ ""
Using (1), the formula for y(t;V,el,S) in the (X,Y,Z) system is:
-+ " "
y(t;V,el,S) = (w(t)tcoselsinS,w(t)tcOSelCOSS,w(t)tsinel) (2)
The instantaneous position vector of the target at time t is denoted

-+ " "
by x(t;u,e,~) and d denotes the distance of target from gun position
at t=O (i .e. , d = -+x(O;u,e,~».
" "
The formula for -+ " "
x(t;u,e,~) is:
-+ " "
x(t;u,e,~) = (utcosesin~,d-utcosecos~,utsine) (3)
A concrete case for investigation by the SP is defined by the basic
input data which includes values for the variables r, d, u , a , ~ , v0 ,

000
au, ae' O~, 0v' 0el' aS, k.
The estimate of the hit-probabil ity is derived by repeatedly simulating
different encounters of the same case by the following method:
Step 1: The gun-system estimates of the three parameters " "

u, a,~, which
determine the target's trajectory are sampled form the given normal
distributions N(u ,( 2 ), " 2)

N(eo,Oe ' N(;O'O:) respectively.
o U
Step 2: With the above estimates, utilizing formulas (1), (2) and (3),
the theoretical hit time to' and "ell and "a , are calculated
l
by solving the equation
-+ " "
Iy(t;vo,el,a) - -+ ""
x(t;u,e,~) I2 = 0, (4)

- ~
or exp 1 ic i t 1y :
(utcosesln~ -w (t)tcosaslna)2 + (d-utcosecos~-w (t)tcosacosa)2

o 0
+ (uts in e -w (t) ts ina) 2 = 0 (5)

o
where
w (t) = v 1(1 + kt) .

o 0
(6)
A A
Step 3: v, a, a which serves as the actual values of the three
parameters determining the projectile's trajectory are sampled
from the normal distributions N(v ,(12), N(a 1 J(1~) , N(Sl'(1a)
o v
respectively.
Step 4: The minimal distance (miss distance) R between target and

shell during the time interval [ 0 ,TJ (R = min
OstsT
1; l t ;u
0
,e0 ,¢0 ) -
-+
y(t;v,a,a)
A A
I) is found. If R s r, a hit is recorded.
Let n denote the total number of trials for a specific case, m the
total number of hits scored, and Pn the SP estimate of the hit-probabil ity
after n trials; then
Pn = mIn (])
Another variable calculated by the computer model is Rm, the average

of the square miss-distance
n
R~)i/n
m= ( L
R
I
(8)
i III 1

- 9
where R.I is the minimal distance between target and shell in the i-th
trial.
Systematic examination of the dependency of hit-probabil ity on the

values of the various parameters determining the trajectories and the
accuracy in their estimation, was accomplished by repeated runs of the SP,
each run differing in the value of a single input variable.
Represented in Fig. 2 is the change in hit-probabil ity as a function

of the distance of target from gun at the moment of fire, and in Fig. 3, the
change as a function of the target course angle. In each figure are repre
sen ted the results obtained for several different values of the standard
deviations of the prediction and elevation angles and of the dive and course
angl es.

10
00030
0.0251. o =0.033 Ct =0
e a Ct
o =0,01
Ct 0cj>=Oe
\
0.0201
~n
O.Oli
r<
j
0,0101
1I
:1
0.005;
L m 400
-+
800
--lI~-_._._._.
1200
,
1600
~
2000 2400 d
Figure 2: Dependence of hit-probability on distance of target from

gun at t=O.

- 11
a
O· 009 j a=0~
C1<p=Oe
0.008[
0.007
0.006 j
0,,005J \
0.004 ~~=0,,02 .~
fe=O.03
~-~
0.003 f~="''''~
p=O.Ol
. . . .
"~
......."
""
0.002 : . e " "'-.. .
0001~~~
radian 0 0.3491 0.6981 1.0472 1.3963"
<Po in Radian
Figure 3: Dependence of hit-probabil ity on target course angle.

- 12
3. A FORMULA FOR ESTIMATING ~2
In order to develop a convenient formula for estimating the hit
probabil tty we devise a method of estimating the expectation of the

2
square of the miss-distance between shell and target ~ from the values
m
of the parameters defined in Section 2. (The relation between the two
concepts is discussed in Section 4.)
...,.
We let ~ denote these six parameters, that is to say,
...,. A l;, A A
~ = (v,a.,S,u,a,<j» .
...,.
~ is a vector of independent normally distributed variables
2 -+ --+
N(C. ,0 .. ),
10 i
i = 1, ••• ,6; let z(t;Z;) and be the instantaneous
distance vector and instantaneous distance respectively between target
and she 11
-+ -+ A ~
z ( t ; l;) = -+
y(t;v,a., ) - -+ " "
x(t;u,a,<j» (10)
.3
-+
Q.(t;l;) =
-+ -+
II Z ( t; l;)ll = [ i =I 1z. (t; t) ~
I - *
( 11)
We assume
-+ -+
l:.!. T is a positive number such that for any value of l;, ( t ; t;) has
only a single local minimum in the time i nterva 1 [O,TJ. That is to say,
-+
if R(l;) denotes that minimum and t the time it occurs, then
l
R( +)
z:; = ~
(-+
t i ; 1;) < ~,
,
t ; +)
1; (12)
O~tl<T Vt,tE[O,TJ,t~tl

- 13
3.2 If then the minimal distance vanishes
R(!o ) = O. ( 13)
-+
is a continuous function of the random vector (,;, therefore
Theorem:
According to Assumptions 3.1 and 3.2 the expectation of R2 is
( 14)
where
A = {a~ i[u +[w (t )/(l+kt )]cos(~ +~ )]2a~/S2}u2t2

1 000 0 0 0 0 0
A2 = (a 2 +[u cos(~ +~ ) + w (t )Xl+kt )]2 a ;/S2}w (t)2 t 2, (15)

Ct 0 00 00 0 000
A u2/[(1+kt )2 S2]}(a 2/u 2+a 2/w (t)2)t 2sin 2 (a +~ )

= {w0(t0)20
3 0 u 0 v 0 0 00'
S2 2 + [w (t )/(l+kt )J2+
= u0 2u [w (t )/(l+kt )]cos(a +~) (16)
00 0 000 0 0 0
and to' So are calculated by solving equation (5).
Eli s the e r ro r .
For proof of the theorem see Appendix A.
Examination of formula (15) reveals that Al and A2 represent the
contribution to the miss-distance of the angular-deviation factor of the
prediction-error and dispersion-error respectively, while A represents

3
the contribution of the inaccuracy in estimating target speed, and the

- 14
deviation of the shell's speed.
In some 30 different cases, comparison between the estimates of

2
t derived by formula lal4) (see Remark in Appendix A) and those
m
2
derived by the SP R to be the SP estimate), yields an
(taking
m
average relative error (Itm - Rm I /R)
m of 1.5%, and 0.35m as the
standard deviation of the difference between the two types of estimates.

2
4. UTILIZING t FOR HIT-PROBABILITY ESTIMATION
m
We define the target-plane (TP) as passing through the target
center and as constantly perpendicular to gun-target line (GTL) , and
take the target center to be the origin of the (n 1 ,n 2 ) rectangular
coordinate system of TP, where n A is constantly horizontal.
We assume, as did Cunningham [I], Frazer [2], and Lind [4J, that
the most significant information about the hit-probabil ity is derived
from the dispersion of the intersection between shell trajectory and the TP.
The dispersion is normally distributed in the two independent coordinates
(n ,n ) , with the center of target as the mean and (1,(1 as the respective
1 2 1 2
standard deviations.
As in Assumption 2.7, we consider a hit to be scored when
therefore, the hit probabil ity p is
p = J I N(O,0~)N(O,(1~)dnldn2' ( 18)
n2+n 2s r 2
1 2
If (11 = O
2
= (1 the hit-probabil ity is given by
( 19)
Alternatively, if

- 16
p = (n~ + n~)i , (20)
then p is a Rayleigh distributed variable, and therefore
(21)
and
We find that taking aa - a<l> ' aa. "" aa and <I> - 0 is a sufficient
condition to cause a 1 = a2 . This condition defines a category of cases
where formula (22) can be used for hit-probabil ity estimation.
Comparison of the hit-probabil ity estimates derived by the SP and

by formula (22), where ~2 (computed by formula (a14» is taken to be
m
the estimation of ~~, yields a relative difference of 4.5%, where
the maximal relative difference recorded is 11.6%.

- 17
5. CONCLUSIONS
Sections 3 and 4 indicate that formula (22) in conjunction with (a14) is a
reI iable instrument for estimating the hit-probability in a specific category of
encounters. It is also a convenient instrument for analyzing the dependence of
the hit-probability on the various parameters defined throughout the paper.
Some interesting relationships utilizing formulas (22) and (a14) are represented
in figures 2,3 and 4.
In figure 4, for instance, each curve represents the different combinations
of 0a and 0e which yield the same hit-probability, information which can be
utilized for decision making in an attempt to improve a given AA system. Once
the costs of changes in and are defined, we can calculate the quality of
the reductions in 0a and 0e which will most efficiently shift the AA system
from one indifference curve to a better one.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authers wish to express their thanks to Dr. A.Shafi for his valuable
remarks and suggestions.

- 18
"'" p=O. 00077

ole ",
0.1 1.. \
O. 13 ~O. OOO~ ,
: : p~~\\
o. 1
0.05
O.oR
0.07
0.06
0005
0.04
\
0.03
0.0
0.01 \\
radian l - _......_ . - . _......-'-+l-_ _- - l l - - - . ; I - - - - -
radian 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
°a.
Figure 4: Hit-probabi1 ity indifference-curves

Al
APPENDIX A
Proof of the Theorem

-+
R is a continuous function of r;; therefore:
= Jr OOf R2(~) II N(r;. ,cr~)dr;.

6
(a 1)
... i=l \0 I I
-<Xl
since all partial derivatives of at least order 4 of R2 (t) exist, let

-+
to a Taylor series around r; o
2 -+ -+ -+

R (r;) = T lr;) + E (r;) la2)
o
where
(1/2!) l [02 R2(to )/or;i or;j](r;i - r;io)(r;j - r;jo) +

j, i =1
6
ll/3!) l la3)
i ,j , k= 1
6
E.
o
a) = (1/4!) . . l _ [olt R2(t l )lor;i or;}r;k 0I;R,] _.n. (I;n - r;no) . la4)
I ,J , k, R,- 1 n- I ,J ,k, R,
Substituting la2) in lal), we obtain
(a5)

As is well known, if x is a random variable with mean o and
X
standard deviation a,
x
then
(a6)
Formul as (n), (a3), (a6) and (a5) imply
E{T} = L (a])
i=l
and
6
= (9 ·6/4 1) L [a 4 R2 (t )lar;~ar;~ ] a~a~ (a8)
i ,j=l 1 I J I J
By formula (12) we obtain
Since tl is the time instant where li(t} I is minimal:
-+ -+ -+ -+ -+
G(t; r;) = z(t; r;)·(dz(t; r;)/dt) = 0 (alO)
consequent 1Y ,
= 1"",6 , (all)

A3
Substitution of (all) in (a9) and differentiation yield
i = 1, ... ,6 . (a 12)
Solving (a12) explicitly for every parameter and substituting the
result in (al) we obtain:
(a 13)
where
and
S2 = u 2+[ w (t )/(l+kt ) J2 +2u [w (t )/(l+kt ) J cos(S +<1> )

000 0 000 0 0 0
Q.E.D.

Remark:
Since
and
A A A
and since, in effect, the standard-deviations of the angles a, S, 8
A
and $ are quite small, there are cases where E2 can be neglected,
2
and 1 can be estimated by
m
12 = E{T} . (aI4)
m

REF ERE N C E S
I. CUNNINGHAM, L.B.C. and W.R.B. HYND: "Random Processes in Problems

of Air Warfare", Supplement to the Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society, Vol. 8, #1, 1946.
2. FRASER, D.A. : "Generalized Hit Probability with a Gaussian Target I,

Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 22, 1951.
3. FRASER, D.A.: "Generalized Hit Probability with a Gaussian Target II,

I bid., Vo 1. 24, 1953.
4. LIND, G.: liThe Shot-Down Probability When Firing Automatic Anti-

Ai rcraft Guns", Wehrtechnische Monatshefte, #3, Vol. 61, (1964),
pp. 89-99, and #4/5, Vol.61, (1964), pp. 135-140.
5. t-iACSHANE, E.J., KELLEY, J.L. and F. RENO, l'Exterior Ballistics" ,

University of Denver Press, Denver, 1953.
6. SCHREIER, F.: liThe Oerl ikon-Contraves 35mm AA Tank Some Operational

Considerations", International Defence Review, Vol. 5, #4,
August 1972.
7. TRANSUE, J.R.: "Simfind Models of Anti-Aircraft Gun Systems",

Research Paper, p.564, March 1970, pp. 31-32.
8. WRIGLEY W. and J. HOVORKA: Fire Control Principles,

McGraw-HilI Book Company, Inc., 1959.

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THE HIT

PROBABILITY OF A SINGLE AA ROUND AS

Limited Distribution Notice

technical report for early dissemination of its contents.

As a courtesy to the intended publisher, it should not be widely distributed until

after the date of outside publ ication.