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Coronavirus disease

2019

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is


an infectious disease caused by severe
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2).[8] The disease was first
identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the
capital of China's Hubei province, and has
since spread globally, resulting in the
ongoing 2019–20 coronavirus
pandemic.[9][10] Common symptoms
include fever, cough, and shortness of
breath.[5] Other symptoms may include
fatigue, muscle pain, diarrhea, sore throat,
loss of smell, and abdominal pain.[5][11][12]
The time from exposure to onset of
symptoms is typically around five days, but
may range from two to fourteen days.[5][13]
While the majority of cases result in mild
symptoms, some progress to viral
pneumonia and multi-organ failure.[9][14]
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-
19)

Other names Coronavirus


COVID
2019-nCoV acute
respiratory disease
Novel coronavirus
pneumonia[1][2]
Wuhan
pneumonia[3][4]
Symptoms of COVID-19

Pronunciation /kəˈroʊnəˌvaɪrəs dɪ
ˈziːz/, /ˈkoʊvɪd/

Specialty Infectious diseases

Symptoms Fever, cough,


shortness of breath,
none[5][6]

Complications Pneumonia, viral


sepsis, acute
respiratory distress
syndrome, kidney
failure

Usual onset 2–14 days (typically


5) from exposure

Causes Severe acute


respiratory syndrome
coronavirus 2 (SARS-
CoV-2)

Risk factors Travel, viral exposure

Diagnostic method rRT-PCR testing, CT


scan
Prevention Hand washing,
quarantine, social
distancing

Treatment Symptomatic and


supportive

Frequency 1,859,011[7] confirmed


cases

Deaths 114,979 (6.2% of


confirmed cases)[7]
The virus is mainly spread between people
during close contact,[a] often via small
droplets produced during coughing,[b]
sneezing, or talking.[6][15][17] While these
droplets are produced when breathing out,
they usually fall to the ground or onto
surfaces rather than being infectious over
large distances.[6][18][19] People may also
become infected by touching a
contaminated surface and then their
face.[6][15] The virus can survive on
surfaces for up to 72 hours.[20] It is most
contagious during the first three days after
onset of symptoms, although spread may
be possible before symptoms appear and
in later stages of the disease.[21]

The standard method of diagnosis is by


real-time reverse transcription polymerase
chain reaction (rRT-PCR) from a
nasopharyngeal swab.[22] Chest CT
imaging may also be helpful for diagnosis
in individuals where there is a high
suspicion of infection based on symptoms
and risk factors but is not recommended
for routine screening.[23][24]

Recommended measures to prevent


infection include frequent hand washing,
maintaining physical distance from others
(especially from those with symptoms),
covering coughs and sneezes with a tissue
or inner elbow, and keeping unwashed
hands away from the face.[25][26] The use
of masks is recommended for those who
suspect they have the virus and their
caregivers.[27] Recommendations for mask
use by the general public vary, with some
authorities recommending against their
use, some recommending their use, and
others requiring their use.[28][29][30]
Currently, there is no vaccine or specific
antiviral treatment for COVID-19.[6]
Management involves treatment of
symptoms, supportive care, isolation, and
experimental measures.[31]

The World Health Organization (WHO)


declared the 2019–20 coronavirus
outbreak a Public Health Emergency of
International Concern (PHEIC)[32][33] on 30
January 2020 and a pandemic on 11
March 2020.[10] Local transmission of the
disease has been recorded in many
countries across all six WHO regions.[34]
Play media
Video summary (script)

Signs and symptoms


Symptom[35] %

Fever 88

Dry cough 68

Fatigue 38

Sputum production 33

Loss of smell 15[36] to 30[12][37]

Shortness of breath 19

Muscle or joint pain 15

Sore throat 14

Headache 14

Chills 11

Nausea or vomiting 5

Nasal congestion 5

Diarrhoea 4 to 31[38]

Haemoptysis 0.9

Pink eyes 0.8

Those infected with the virus may be


asymptomatic or develop flu-like
symptoms, including fever, cough, fatigue,
and shortness of breath.[5][39][40]
Emergency symptoms include difficulty
breathing, persistent chest pain or
pressure, confusion, difficulty waking and
bluish face or lips; immediate medical
attention is advised if these symptoms are
present.[5] Less commonly, upper
respiratory symptoms, such as sneezing,
runny nose or sore throat may be seen.
Symptoms such as nausea, vomiting and
diarrhoea have been observed in varying
percentages.[38][41][42] Some cases in
China initially presented only with chest
tightness and palpitations.[43] In March
2020 there were reports indicating that
loss of the sense of smell (anosmia) may
be a common symptom among those who
have mild disease,[12][37] although not as
common as initially reported.[36] In some,
the disease may progress to pneumonia,
multi-organ failure and death.[9][14] In those
who develop severe symptoms, time from
symptom onset to needing mechanical
ventilation is typically eight days.[44]

As is common with infections, there is a


delay between the moment when a person
is infected with the virus and the time
when they develop symptoms. This is
called the incubation period. The
incubation period for COVID-19 is typically
five to six days but may range from two to
14 days.[45][46] 97.5% of people who
develop symptoms will do so within 11.5
days of infection.[47]

Reports indicate that not all who are


infected develop symptoms, but their role
in transmission is unknown.[48] Preliminary
evidence suggests asymptomatic cases
may contribute to the spread of the
disease.[49][50] The proportion of infected
people who do not display symptoms is
currently unknown and being studied, with
the Korea Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (KCDC) reporting that 20% of
all confirmed cases remained
asymptomatic during their hospital
stay.[50][51] China's National Health
Commission began including
asymptomatic cases in its daily cases on
1 April, of the 166 infections on that day,
130 (78%) were asymptomatic.[52]

Cause

Transmission
Respiratory droplets produced when a man is
sneezing visualised using Tyndall scattering

Play media
A video discussing the basic reproduction number
and case fatality rate in the context of the pandemic
Some details about how the disease is
spread are still being determined.[15][17]
The WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) say it is
primarily spread during close contact and
by small droplets produced when people
cough, sneeze or talk;[6][15] with close
contact being within 1–3 m (3 ft 3 in–9 ft
10 in).[6] A study in Hong Kong observed
that the virus was present in most
patients' saliva in quantities reaching
100 million virus strands per 1 mL.[53] A
study in Singapore found that an
uncovered cough can lead to droplets
travelling up to 4.5 meters (15 feet).[54] A
second study, produced during the 2020
pandemic, found that advice on the
distance droplets could travel might be
based on old 1930s research which
ignored the protective effect and speed of
the warm moist outbreath surrounding the
droplets. This study found that an
uncovered cough or sneeze can travel up
to 8.2 metres (27 feet).[16]

Respiratory droplets may also be produced


while breathing out, including when
talking. Though the virus is not generally
airborne,[6][55] the National Academy of
Science has suggested that bioaerosol
transmission may be possible and air
collectors positioned in the hallway
outside of people's rooms yielded samples
positive for viral RNA.[56] The droplets can
land in the mouths or noses of people who
are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the
lungs.[15] Some medical procedures such
as intubation and cardiopulmonary
resuscitation (CPR) may cause respiratory
secretions to be aerosolised and thus
result in airborne spread.[55] It may also
spread when one touches a contaminated
surface, known as fomite transmission,
and then touches one's eyes, nose or
mouth.[6] While there are concerns it may
spread by feces, this risk is believed to be
low.[6][15]

The virus is most contagious when people


are symptomatic; while spread may be
possible before symptoms appear, this
risk is low.[6][15] The European Centre for
Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
says while it is not entirely clear how easily
the disease spreads, one person generally
infects two to three others.[17]
The virus survives for hours to days on
surfaces.[6][17] Specifically, the virus was
found to be detectable for one day on
cardboard, for up to three days on plastic
(polypropylene) and stainless steel (AISI
304) and for up to four hours on 99%
copper.[20][57] This, however, varies based
on the humidity and temperature.[58][59]
Surfaces may be decontaminated with a
number of solutions (within one minute of
exposure to the disinfectant to achieve a
4 or more log reduction), including 78–
95% ethanol (alcohol used in spirits), 70–
100% 2-propanol (isopropyl alcohol), the
combination of 45% 2-propanol with 30%
1-propanol, 0.21% sodium hypochlorite
(bleach), 0.5% hydrogen peroxide, or 0.23–
7.5% povidone-iodine. Soap and detergent
are also effective if correctly used; soap
products degrade the virus' fatty protective
layer, deactivating it, as well as freeing
them from skin and other surfaces.[60]
Other solutions, such as benzalkonium
chloride and chlorhexidine gluconate (a
surgical disinfectant), are less effective.[61]

Virology
Illustration of SARSr-CoV virion

Severe acute respiratory syndrome


coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel
severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus, first isolated from three
people with pneumonia connected to the
cluster of acute respiratory illness cases in
Wuhan.[62] All features of the novel SARS-
CoV-2 virus occur in related coronaviruses
in nature.[63] Outside the human body, the
virus is killed by household soap, which
bursts its protective bubble.[23]

SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to the


original SARS-CoV.[64] It is thought to have
a zoonotic origin. Genetic analysis has
revealed that the coronavirus genetically
clusters with the genus Betacoronavirus,
in subgenus Sarbecovirus (lineage B)
together with two bat-derived strains. It is
96% identical at the whole genome level to
other bat coronavirus samples (BatCov
RaTG13).[35] In February 2020, Chinese
researchers found that there is only one
amino acid difference in certain parts of
the genome sequences between the
viruses from pangolins and those from
humans, however, whole-genome
comparison to date found at most 92% of
genetic material shared between pangolin
coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2, which is
insufficient to prove pangolins to be the
intermediate host.[65]

Pathophysiology
The lungs are the organs most affected by
COVID-19 because the virus accesses host
cells via the enzyme angiotensin-
converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is
most abundant in the type II alveolar cells
of the lungs. The virus uses a special
surface glycoprotein called a "spike"
(peplomer) to connect to ACE2 and enter
the host cell.[66] The density of ACE2 in
each tissue correlates with the severity of
the disease in that tissue and some have
suggested that decreasing ACE2 activity
might be protective,[67][68] though another
view is that increasing ACE2 using
angiotensin II receptor blocker
medications could be protective and that
these hypotheses need to be tested.[69] As
the alveolar disease progresses,
respiratory failure might develop and death
may follow.[68]

The virus also affects gastrointestinal


organs as ACE2 is abundantly expressed
in the glandular cells of gastric, duodenal
and rectal epithelium[70] as well as
endothelial cells and enterocytes of the
small intestine.[71]

Autopsies of people who died of COVID-19


have found diffuse alveolar damage (DAD),
and lymphocyte-containing inflammatory
infiltrates within the lung.[72]

Immunopathology

Although SARS-COV-2 has a tropism for


ACE2-expressing epithelial cells of the
respiratory tract, patients with severe
COVID-19 have symptoms of systemic
hyperinflammation. Clinical laboratory
findings of elevated IL-2, IL-7, IL-6,
granulocyte-macrophage colony-
stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interferon-γ
inducible protein 10 (IP-10), monocyte
chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1),
macrophage inflammatory protein 1-α
(MIP-1α), and tumour necrosis factor-α
(TNF-α) indicative of cytokine release
syndrome (CRS) suggest an underlying
immunopathology.[73]

Additionally, people with COVID-19 and


acute respiratory distress syndrome
(ARDS) have classical serum biomarkers
of CRS including elevated C-reactive
protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase
(LDH), D-dimer, and ferritin.[74]
Systemic inflammation results in
vasodilation, allowing inflammatory
lymphocytic and monocytic infiltration of
the lung and the heart. In particular,
pathogenic GM-CSF-secreting T-cells were
shown to correlate with the recruitment of
inflammatory IL-6-secreting monocytes
and severe lung pathology in COVID-19
patients.[75] Lymphocytic infiltrates have
also been reported at autopsy.[72]

Diagnosis
Demonstration of a nasopharyngeal swab for

COVID-19 testing

CDC rRT-PCR test kit for COVID-19[76]


The WHO has published several testing
protocols for the disease.[77] The standard
method of testing is real-time reverse
transcription polymerase chain reaction
(rRT-PCR).[78] The test is typically done on
respiratory samples obtained by a
nasopharyngeal swab, however a nasal
swab or sputum sample may also be
used.[22][79] Results are generally available
within a few hours to two days.[80][81]
Blood tests can be used, but these require
two blood samples taken two weeks apart
and the results have little immediate
value.[82] Chinese scientists were able to
isolate a strain of the coronavirus and
publish the genetic sequence so
laboratories across the world could
independently develop polymerase chain
reaction (PCR) tests to detect infection by
the virus.[9][83][84] As of 4 April 2020,
antibody tests (which may detect active
infections and whether a person had been
infected in the past) were in development,
but not yet widely used.[85][86][87] The
Chinese experience with testing has show
the accuracy is only 60 to 70%.[88] The FDA
approved the first point-of-care test on 21
March 2020 for use at the end of that
month.[89]

Diagnostic guidelines released by


Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University
suggested methods for detecting
infections based upon clinical features
and epidemiological risk. These involved
identifying people who had at least two of
the following symptoms in addition to a
history of travel to Wuhan or contact with
other infected people: fever, imaging
features of pneumonia, normal or reduced
white blood cell count or reduced
lymphocyte count.[90]

Along with laboratory testing, chest CT


scans may be helpful to diagnose COVID-
19 in individuals with a high clinical
suspicion of infection but is not
recommended for routine screening.[23][24]
Bilateral multilobar ground-glass opacities
with a peripheral, asymmetric and
posterior distribution are common in early
infection.[23] Subpleural dominance, crazy
paving (lobular septal thickening with
variable alveolar filling), and consolidation
may appear as the disease
progresses.[23][91]
Typical CT imaging findings

CT imaging of rapid progression stage

Pathology
Few data are available about microscopic
lesions and the pathophysiology of COVID-
19.[92][93] The main pathological findings at
autopsy are:

Macroscopy: pleurisy, pericarditis, lung


consolidation and pulmonary oedema
Four types of severity of viral pneumonia
can be observed:
minor pneumonia: minor serous
exudation, minor fibrin exudation
mild pneumonia: pulmonary
oedema, pneumocyte hyperplasia,
large atypical pneumocytes,
interstitial inflammation with
lymphocytic infiltration and
multinucleated giant cell formation
severe pneumonia: diffuse alveolar
damage (DAD) with diffuse alveolar
exudates. DAD is the cause of acute
respiratory distress syndrome
(ARDS) and severe hypoxemia.
healing pneumonia: organisation of
exudates in alveolar cavities and
pulmonary interstitial fibrosis
plasmocytosis in BAL[94]
Blood: disseminated intravascular
coagulation (DIC);[95] leukoerythroblastic
reaction[96]
Liver: microvesicular steatosis

Prevention

Inhibiting new infections to reduce the number of


cases at any given time—known as "flattening the
curve"—allows healthcare services to better manage
the same volume of patients.[97][98][99] Conversely,
increasing healthcare capacity—called raising the
line such as by increasing bed count personnel
line—such as by increasing bed count, personnel,
and equipment, can help to meet increased
demand.[100]

Inadequate mitigation, such as premature relaxation


of physical distancing rules or stay-at-home orders,
can result in a resurgence of pandemics.[98][101]

Preventive measures to reduce the


chances of infection include staying at
home, avoiding crowded places, washing
hands with soap and water often and for
at least 20 seconds, practising good
respiratory hygiene and avoiding touching
the eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed
hands.[102][103][104] The CDC recommends
covering the mouth and nose with a tissue
when coughing or sneezing and
recommends using the inside of the elbow
if no tissue is available.[102] They also
recommend proper hand hygiene after any
cough or sneeze.[102] Social distancing
strategies aim to reduce contact of
infected persons with large groups by
closing schools and workplaces,
restricting travel and cancelling large
public gatherings.[105] Distancing
guidelines also includes that people stay
at least 6 feet (1.8 m) apart.[106]

As a vaccine is not expected until 2021 at


the earliest,[107] a key part of managing
COVID-19 is trying to decrease the
epidemic peak, known as "flattening the
curve".[98] This is done by slowing the
infection rate to decrease the risk of health
services being overwhelmed, allowing for
better treatment of current cases and
delaying additional cases until effective
treatments or a vaccine become
available.[98][101]

According to the WHO, the use of masks is


recommended only if a person is coughing
or sneezing or when one is taking care of
someone with a suspected infection.[108]
Some countries also recommend healthy
individuals to wear face masks, including
China,[109] Hong Kong,[110] Thailand,[111]
Czech Republic,[112] and Austria.[113] In
order to meet the need for masks, the
WHO estimates that global production will
need to increase by 40%. Hoarding and
speculation have worsened the problem,
with the price of masks increasing sixfold,
N95 respirators tripled, and gowns
doubled.[114] Some health experts consider
wearing non-medical grade masks and
other face coverings like scarves or
bandanas a good way to prevent people
from touching their mouths and noses,
even if non-medical coverings would not
protect against a direct sneeze or cough
from an infected person.[115]

Those diagnosed with COVID-19 or who


believe they may be infected are advised
by the CDC to stay home except to get
medical care, call ahead before visiting a
healthcare provider, wear a face mask
before entering the healthcare provider's
office and when in any room or vehicle
with another person, cover coughs and
sneezes with a tissue, regularly wash
hands with soap and water and avoid
sharing personal household items.[27][116]
The CDC also recommends that
individuals wash hands often with soap
and water for at least 20 seconds,
especially after going to the toilet or when
hands are visibly dirty, before eating and
after blowing one's nose, coughing or
sneezing. It further recommends using an
alcohol-based hand sanitiser with at least
60% alcohol, but only when soap and
water are not readily available.[102]

For areas where commercial hand


sanitisers are not readily available, the
WHO provides two formulations for local
production. In these formulations, the
antimicrobial activity arises from ethanol
or isopropanol. Hydrogen peroxide is used
to help eliminate bacterial spores in the
alcohol; it is "not an active substance for
hand antisepsis". Glycerol is added as a
humectant.[117]
Prevention efforts are multiplicative, with
effects far beyond that of a single spread.
Each avoided case leads to more avoided
cases down the line, which in turn can
stop the outbreak in its tracks.
Play media

Handwashing instructions

Management
People are managed with supportive care,
which may include fluid therapy, oxygen
support, and supporting other affected
vital organs.[118][119][120] The CDC
recommends that those who suspect they
carry the virus wear a simple face
mask.[27] Extracorporeal membrane
oxygenation (ECMO) has been used to
address the issue of respiratory failure, but
its benefits are still under
consideration.[121][122]

The WHO and Chinese National Health


Commission have published
recommendations for taking care of
people who are hospitalised with COVID-
19.[123][124] Intensivists and
pulmonologists in the U.S. have compiled
treatment recommendations from various
agencies into a free resource, the
IBCC.[125][126]
Medications

Some medical professionals recommend


paracetamol (acetaminophen) over
ibuprofen for first-line use.[127][128][129] The
WHO does not oppose the use of non-
steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs
(NSAIDs) such as ibuprofen for
symptoms,[130] and the FDA says currently
there is no evidence that NSAIDs worsen
COVID-19 symptoms.[131]

While theoretical concerns have been


raised about ACE inhibitors and
angiotensin receptor blockers, as of 19
March 2020, these are not sufficient to
justify stopping these
medications.[132][133][134] Steroids, such as
methylprednisolone, are not
recommended unless the disease is
complicated by acute respiratory distress
syndrome.[135][136]

Personal protective equipment


Four steps to putting on personal protective
equipment (PPE)[137]

Precautions must be taken to minimise the


risk of virus transmission, especially in
healthcare settings when performing
procedures that can generate aerosols,
such as intubation or hand ventilation.[138]
For healthcare professionals caring for
people with COVID-19, the CDC
recommends placing the person in an
Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) in
addition to using standard precautions,
contact precautions and airborne
precautions.[139]

CDC outlines the specific guidelines for


the use of personal protective equipment
(PPE) during the pandemic. The
recommended gear includes:
Respirator or facemask[140][141]
Gown[142]
Medical gloves[143][144]
Eye protection[145]

When available, respirators (instead of


facemasks) are preferred.[146] N95
respirators are approved for industrial
settings but the FDA has authorised the
masks for use under an Emergency Use
Authorisation (EUA). They are designed to
protect from airborne particles like dust
but effectiveness against a specific
biological agent is not guaranteed for off-
label uses.[147] When masks are not
available, the CDC recommends using face
shields or, as a last resort, homemade
masks.[148]

Mechanical ventilation

Most cases of COVID-19 are not severe


enough to require mechanical ventilation
(artificial assistance to support breathing),
but a percentage of cases do.[149][150]
Some Canadian doctors recommend the
use of invasive mechanical ventilation
because this technique limits the spread
of aerosolised transmission vectors.[149]

On 9 April it came to light that British and


American doctors were reviewing the
recommendations to use the "highly
invasive" Canadian procedure which
"require the patient to be rendered
unconscious" which in the opinion of NHS
consultants at the University Hospitals
Birmingham were "being used too early
and may cause more harm than good...
less invasive forms of oxygen treatment
through face masks or nasal cannulas
work better for patients".[151]

Severe cases are most common in older


adults (those older than 60 years[149] and
especially those older than 80 years).[152]
Many developed countries do not have
enough hospital beds per capita, which
limits a health system's capacity to handle
a sudden spike in the number of COVID-19
cases severe enough to require
hospitalisation.[153] This limited capacity is
a significant driver of the need to flatten
the curve (to keep the speed at which new
cases occur and thus the number of
people sick at one point in time lower).[153]
One study in China found 5% were
admitted to intensive care units, 2.3%
needed mechanical support of ventilation,
and 1.4% died.[121] Around 20–30% of the
people in hospital with pneumonia from
COVID-19 needed ICU care for respiratory
support.[44]

Acute respiratory distress syndrome

Mechanical ventilation becomes more


complex as acute respiratory distress
syndrome (ARDS) develops in COVID-19
and oxygenation becomes increasingly
difficult.[154] Ventilators capable of
pressure control modes and high PEEP[155]
are needed to maximise oxygen delivery
while minimising the risk of ventilator-
associated lung injury and
pneumothorax.[156] High PEEP may not be
available on older ventilators.
Options for ARDS[154]
Therapy Recommendations

High-flow nasal oxygen For SpO2 <93%. May prevent the need for intubation and ventilation

Tidal volume 6mL per kg and can be reduced to 4mL/kg

Keep below 30 cmH2O if possible (high respiratory rate (35 per


Plateau airway pressure
minute) may be required)

Positive end-expiratory
Moderate to high levels
pressure

Prone positioning For worsening oxygenation

Fluid management Goal is a negative balance of 0.5–1L per day

Antibiotics For secondary bacterial infections

Glucocorticoids Not recommended

Experimental treatment

No medications are approved to treat the


disease by the WHO although some are
recommended by individual national
medical authorities.[157] Research into
potential treatments started in January
2020,[158] and several antiviral drugs are in
clinical trials.[159][160] Although new
medications may take until 2021 to
develop,[161] several of the medications
being tested are already approved for
other uses or are already in advanced
testing.[157] Antiviral medication may be
tried in people with severe disease.[118]
The WHO recommended volunteers take
part in trials of the effectiveness and
safety of potential treatments.[162]

The FDA has granted temporary


authorization to convalescent plasma as
an experimental treatment in cases where
the person's life is seriously or
immediately threatened. It has not
undergone the clinical studies needed to
show it is safe and effective for the
disease.[163][164][165]

Information technology

In February 2020, China launched a mobile


app to deal with the disease outbreak.[166]
Users are asked to enter their name and ID
number. The app is able to detect 'close
contact' using surveillance data and
therefore a potential risk of infection.
Every user can also check the status of
three other users. If a potential risk is
detected, the app not only recommends
self-quarantine, it also alerts local health
officials.[167]

Big data analytics on cellphone data, facial


recognition technology, mobile phone
tracking and artificial intelligence are used
to track infected people and people whom
they contacted in South Korea, Taiwan and
Singapore.[168][169] In March 2020, the
Israeli government enabled security
agencies to track mobile phone data of
people supposed to have coronavirus. The
measure was taken to enforce quarantine
and protect those who may come into
contact with infected citizens.[170] Also in
March 2020, Deutsche Telekom shared
aggregated phone location data with the
German federal government agency,
Robert Koch Institute, in order to research
and prevent the spread of the virus.[171]
Russia deployed facial recognition
technology to detect quarantine
breakers.[172] Italian regional health
commissioner Giulio Gallera said he has
been informed by mobile phone operators
that "40% of people are continuing to move
around anyway".[173] German government
conducted a 48 hours weekend hackathon
with more than 42.000
participants.[174][175] Also the president of
Estonia, Kersti Kaljulaid, made a global call
for creative solutions against the spread of
coronavirus.[176]

Psychological support

Individuals may experience distress from


quarantine, travel restrictions, side effects
of treatment or fear of the infection itself.
To address these concerns, the National
Health Commission of China published a
national guideline for psychological crisis
intervention on 27 January 2020.[177][178]

Prognosis
This article relies too much on references to
primary sources.
The severity of diagnosed
COVID-19 cases in China[179]

Case fatality rates by age


group in China. Data through
11 February 2020.[180]

Case fatality rate in China


y
depending on other health
problems. Data through 11
February 2020.[180]

The number of deaths vs total


cases by country and
approximate case fatality
rate[181]

The severity of COVID-19 varies. The


disease may take a mild course with few
or no symptoms, resembling other
common upper respiratory diseases such
as the common cold. Mild cases typically
recover within two weeks, while those with
severe or critical diseases may take three
to six weeks to recover. Among those who
have died, the time from symptom onset
to death has ranged from two to eight
weeks.[35]

Children are susceptible to the disease,


but are likely to have milder symptoms and
a lower chance of severe disease than
adults; in those younger than 50 years, the
risk of death is less than 0.5%, while in
those older than 70 it is more than
8%.[182][183] Pregnant women may be at
higher risk for severe infection with COVID-
19 based on data from other similar
viruses, like SARS and MERS, but data for
COVID-19 is lacking.[184][185]

In some people, COVID-19 may affect the


lungs causing pneumonia. In those most
severely affected, COVID-19 may rapidly
progress to acute respiratory distress
syndrome (ARDS) causing respiratory
failure, septic shock or multi-organ
failure.[186][187] Complications associated
with COVID-19 include sepsis, abnormal
clotting and damage to the heart, kidneys
and liver. Clotting abnormalities,
specifically an increase in prothrombin
time, have been described in 6% of those
admitted to hospital with COVID-19, while
abnormal kidney function is seen in 4% of
this group.[188] Liver injury as shown by
blood markers of liver damage is
frequently seen in severe cases.[189]

Some studies have found that the


neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) may
be helpful in early screening for severe
illness.[190]

Many of those who die of COVID-19 have


pre-existing (underlying) conditions,
including hypertension, diabetes mellitus
and cardiovascular disease.[191] The
Istituto Superiore di Sanità reported that
out of 8.8% of deaths where medical
charts were available for review, 97.2% of
sampled patients had at least one
comorbidity with the average patient
having 2.7 diseases.[192] According to the
same report, the median time between
onset of symptoms and death was ten
days, with five being spent hospitalised.
However, patients transferred to an ICU
had a median time of seven days between
hospitalisation and death.[192] In a study of
early cases, the median time from
exhibiting initial symptoms to death was
14 days, with a full range of six to 41
days.[193] In a study by the National Health
Commission (NHC) of China, men had a
death rate of 2.8% while women had a
death rate of 1.7%.[194] Histopathological
examinations of post-mortem lung
samples show diffuse alveolar damage
with cellular fibromyxoid exudates in both
lungs. Viral cytopathic changes were
observed in the pneumocytes. The lung
picture resembled acute respiratory
distress syndrome (ARDS).[35] In 11.8% of
the deaths reported by the National Health
Commission of China, heart damage was
noted by elevated levels of troponin or
cardiac arrest.[43] According to March data
from the United States, 89% of those
hospitalised had preexisting
conditions.[195]
Availability of medical resources and the
socioeconomics of a region may also
affect mortality.[196] Estimates of the
mortality from the condition vary because
of those regional differences,[197] but also
because of methodological difficulties.
The under-counting of mild cases can
cause the mortality rate to be
overestimated.[198] However, the fact that
deaths are the result of cases contracted
in the past can mean the current mortality
rate is underestimated.[199][200]
Concerns have been raised about long-
term sequelae of the disease. The Hong
Kong Hospital Authority found a drop of
20% to 30% in lung capacity in some
people who recovered from the disease,
and lung scans suggested organ
damage.[201] This may also lead to post-
intensive care syndrome following
recovery.[202]
Case fatality rates (%) by age and country
0– 10– 20– 30– 40– 50– 60– 70– 80-
Age 90+
9 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 89

China as of 11
0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.6 8.0 14.8
February[180]

Denmark as of 9 April[203] 0.2 3.8 12.3 21.1 38.0

Italy as of 9 April[204] 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 9.0 23.4 31.0 26.1

Netherlands as of 6
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 6.2 16.0 25.1 22.0
April[205]

South Korea as of 7
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 8.3 20.0
April[206]

Spain as of 9 April[207] 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 3.4 10.7 20.6 24.1

Switzerland as of 9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 7.3 18.4
April[208]

Case fatality rates (%) by age in the United States


Age 0–19 20–44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75–84 85+

United States as of 16 0.1– 0.5– 1.4–


0.0 2.7–4.9 4.3–10.5 10.4–27.3
March[209] 0.2 0.8 2.6

Note: The lower bound includes all cases. The upper bound excludes cases that were missing
data.
Estimate of infection fatality rates and probability of severe disease course (%) by age based
on cases from China[210]
60– 70–
0–9 10–19 20–29 30–39 40–49 50–59 80+
69 79

0.04 1.0 3.4 4.3 8.2 11 17 18


Severe 0.0
(0.02– (0.62– (2.0– (2.5– (4.9– (7.0– (9.9– (11–
disease (0.0–0.0)
0.08) 2.1) 7.0) 8.7) 17) 24) 34) 38)

0.0016 0.0070 0.031 0.084 0.16 0.60 1.9 4.3 7.8


Death (0.00016– (0.0015– (0.014– (0.041– (0.076– (0.34– (1.1– (2.5– (3.8–
0.025) 0.050) 0.092) 0.19) 0.32) 1.3) 3.9) 8.4) 13)

Total infection fatality rate is estimated to be 0.66% (0.39–1.3). Infection fatality rate is fatality
per all infected individuals, regardless of whether they were diagnosed or had any symptoms.
Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals for the estimates.

Reinfection

As of March 2020, it was unknown if past


infection provides effective and long-term
immunity in people who recover from the
disease.[211] Immunity is seen as likely,
based on the behaviour of other
coronaviruses,[212] but cases in which
recovery from COVID-19 have been
followed by positive tests for coronavirus
at a later date have been reported.[213]
[214][215][216] These cases are believed to be
worsening of a lingering infection rather
than re-infection.[216]

History
The virus is thought to be natural and have
an animal origin,[63] through spillover
infection.[217] The actual origin is unknown,
but by December 2019 the spread of
infection was almost entirely driven by
human-to-human transmission.[180][218] A
study of the first 41 cases of confirmed
COVID-19, published in January 2020 in
The Lancet, revealed the earliest date of
onset of symptoms as 1 December
2019.[219][220][221] Official publications from
the WHO reported the earliest onset of
symptoms as 8 December 2019.[222]

Epidemiology
Several measures are commonly used to
quantify mortality.[223] These numbers vary
by region and over time and are influenced
by the volume of testing, healthcare
system quality, treatment options, time
since initial outbreak and population
characteristics such as age, sex and
overall health.[224] In late 2019, WHO
assigned the emergency ICD-10 disease
codes U07.1 for deaths from lab-
confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and
U07.2 for deaths from clinically or
epidemiologically diagnosed COVID-19
without lab-confirmed SARS-CoV-2
infection.[225]

The death-to-case ratio reflects the


number of deaths divided by the number
of diagnosed cases within a given time
interval. Based on Johns Hopkins
University statistics, the global death-to-
case ratio is 6.2% (114,979/1,859,011) as
of 13 April 2020.[7] The number varies by
region.[226]

Other measures include the case fatality


rate (CFR), which reflects the percent of
diagnosed individuals who die from a
disease, and the infection fatality rate
(IFR), which reflects the percent of
infected individuals (diagnosed and
undiagnosed) who die from a disease.
These statistics are not time bound and
follow a specific population from infection
through case resolution. A number of
academics have attempted to calculate
these numbers for specific
populations.[227] In the epicentre of the
outbreak in Italy, Castiglione d'Adda, a
small village of 4500, 80 (1.8%) are already
dead. Most people in the village appear to
have developed antibodies and plausible
immunity, most did so without being
diagnosed, and many did not have
symptoms.[228][229] An investigation is
underway to test the entire population to
learn more about the disease.[230][231]
In the German region of Gangelt, where
0.06% of the population has died, 14%
have antibodies and are now considered
immune (15% have been infected and 2%
were currently infectious).[232][233][234] In
Gangelt, the disease was spread by
Carnival festivals, and spread to younger
people, causing a relatively lower
mortality,[235] and not all COVID-19 deaths
may have been formally classified as such.
Furthermore, the German health system
has not been overwhelmed.
Total confirmed cases over time

Total deaths over time


Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per
million people, 10 April 2020[236]
Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19
per million people, 10 April 2020[237]

Society and culture

Nomenclature

The World Health Organization announced


in February 2020 that COVID-19 is the
official name of the disease. World Health
Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus explained that CO stands for
corona, VI for virus and D for disease,
while 19 is for when the outbreak was first
identified: 31 December 2019.[238] The
name had been chosen to avoid
references to a specific geographical
location (e.g. China), animal species or
group of people, in line with international
recommendations for naming aimed at
preventing stigmatisation.[239][240]
The virus that causes COVID-19 is named
severe acute respiratory syndrome
coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).[241] The WHO
additionally uses "the COVID-19 virus" and
"the virus responsible for COVID-19" in
public communications.[241] Coronaviruses
were named in 1968 for their appearance
in electron micrographs which was
reminiscent of the solar corona, corōna
meaning crown in Latin.[242][243][244] Both
the disease and virus are commonly
referred to as "coronavirus".
During the initial outbreak in Wuhan, China,
the virus and disease were commonly
referred to as "coronavirus" and "Wuhan
coronavirus".[245][246][247] In January 2020,
WHO recommended 2019-nCov[248] and
2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease[249]
as interim names for the virus and disease
in accordance with 2015 guidance against
using locations in disease and virus
names.[250] The official names COVID-19
and SARS-CoV-2 were issued on 11
February 2020.[251][252]

Manufacturing
It has been suggested that this article be merged
into 2019–20 coronavirus

Due to capacity limitations in the standard


supply chains, some digital manufacturers
are printing healthcare material such as
nasal swabs and ventilator parts.[253][254]
In one example, when an Italian hospital
urgently required a ventilator valve, and the
supplier was unable to deliver in the
timescale required, a local startup reverse-
engineered and printed the required 100
valves overnight.[255][256]
Misinformation

After the initial outbreak of COVID-19,


conspiracy theories, misinformation and
disinformation emerged regarding the
origin, scale, prevention, treatment and
other aspects of the disease and rapidly
spread online.[257][258][259][260]

Other animals
Humans appear to be capable of
spreading the virus to some other animals.
A domestic cat in Liège tested positive
after it started showing symptoms
(diarrhoea, vomiting, shortness of breath)
a week later than its owner, who was also
positive.[261] Tigers at the Bronx Zoo
tested positive for the virus and showed
symptoms of COVID-19, including a dry
cough and loss of appetite.[262]

A study on domesticated animals


inoculated with the virus found that cats
and ferrets appear to be "highly
susceptible" to the disease, while dogs
appear to be less susceptible, with lower
levels of viral replication. The study failed
to find evidence of viral replication in pigs,
ducks, and chickens.[263]

Research
International research on vaccines and
medicines in COVID-19 are underway by
government organisations, academic
groups and industry researchers.[264][265] In
March, the World Health Organization
initiated the "SOLIDARITY Trial" to assess
treatment effects of four existing antiviral
compounds with the most promise of
efficacy.[266]
Vaccine

There is no available vaccine, but various


agencies are actively developing vaccine
candidates. Previous work on SARS-CoV is
being utilised because SARS-CoV and
SARS-CoV-2 both use the ACE2 receptor to
enter human cells.[267] There are three
vaccination strategies being investigated.
First, researchers aim to build a whole
virus vaccine. The use of such a virus, be it
inactive or dead, aims to elicit a prompt
immune response of the human body to a
new infection with COVID-19. A second
strategy, subunit vaccines, aims to create
a vaccine that sensitises the immune
system to certain subunits of the virus. In
the case of SARS-CoV-2, such research
focuses on the S-spike protein that helps
the virus intrude the ACE2 enzyme
receptor. A third strategy is that of the
nucleic acid vaccines (DNA or RNA
vaccines, a novel technique for creating a
vaccination). Experimental vaccines from
any of these strategies would have to be
tested for safety and efficacy.[268]
On 16 March 2020, the first clinical trial of
a vaccine started with four volunteers in
Seattle. The vaccine contains a harmless
genetic code copied from the virus that
causes the disease.[269]

Antibody dependent enhancement has


been suggested as a potential challenge
for vaccine development for SARS-COV-2,
but this is controversial.[270]

Medications

At least 29 phase II–IV efficacy trials in


COVID-19 were concluded in March 2020
or scheduled to provide results in April
from hospitals in China.[271][272] Seven
trials were evaluating already approved
treatments for malaria, including four
studies on hydroxychloroquine or
chloroquine.[272] Repurposed antiviral
drugs make up most of the Chinese
research, with nine phase III trials on
remdesivir across several countries due to
report by the end of April.[271][272] Other
potential candidates in trials include
vasodilators, corticosteroids, immune
therapies, lipoic acid, bevacizumab, and
recombinant angiotensin-converting
enzyme 2.[272]

The COVID-19 Clinical Research Coalition


has goals to 1) facilitate rapid reviews of
clinical trial proposals by ethics
committees and national regulatory
agencies, 2) fast-track approvals for the
candidate therapeutic compounds, 3)
ensure standardised and rapid analysis of
emerging efficacy and safety data and 4)
facilitate sharing of clinical trial outcomes
before publication.[273][274] A dynamic
review of clinical development for COVID-
19 vaccine and drug candidates was in
place, as of April 2020.[274]

Several existing antiviral medications are


being evaluated for treatment of COVID-
19,[157] including remdesivir, chloroquine
and hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir
and lopinavir/ritonavir combined with
interferon beta.[266][275] There is tentative
evidence for efficacy by remdesivir, as of
March 2020.[276] Remdesivir inhibits SARS-
CoV-2 in vitro.[277] Phase 3 clinical trials
are being conducted in the U.S., China and
Italy.[157][271][278]
Chloroquine, previously used to treat
malaria, was studied in China in February
2020, with preliminary results.[279]
However, there are calls for peer review of
the research.[280] The Guangdong
Provincial Department of Science and
Technology and the Guangdong Provincial
Health and Health Commission issued a
report stating that chloroquine phosphate
"improves the success rate of treatment
and shortens the length of person's
hospital stay" and recommended it for
people diagnosed with mild, moderate and
severe cases of novel coronavirus
pneumonia.[281]

On 17 March, the Italian Pharmaceutical


Agency included chloroquine and
hydroxychloroquine in the list of drugs
with positive preliminary results for
treatment of COVID-19.[282] Korean and
Chinese Health Authorities recommend
the use of chloroquine.[283][284] However,
the Wuhan Institute of Virology, while
recommending a daily dose of one gram,
notes that twice that dose is highly
dangerous and could be lethal. On 28
March 2020, the FDA issued an emergency
use authorisation for hydroxychloroquine
and chloroquine at the discretion of
physicians treating people with COVID-
19.[285][286]

The Chinese 7th edition guidelines also


include interferon, ribavirin or umifenovir
for use against COVID-19.[284]

In 2020, a trial found that


lopinavir/ritonavir was ineffective in the
treatment of severe illness.[287]
Nitazoxanide has been recommended for
further in vivo study after demonstrating
low concentration inhibition of SARS-CoV-
2.[277]

Studies have demonstrated that initial


spike protein priming by transmembrane
protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) is essential
for entry of SARS-CoV-2 via interaction
with the ACE2 receptor.[288] These findings
suggest the TMPRSS2 inhibitor camostat
approved for use in Japan for inhibiting
fibrosis in liver and kidney disease might
constitute an effective off-label treatment.

In February 2020, favipiravir was being


studied in China for experimental
treatment of the emergent COVID-19
disease.[289][290]

In April 2020 ivermectin is being studied in


Australia for a possible treatment for
COVID-19 and has been shown to stop
viral growth within 48 hours in
vitro.[291][292]

There are mixed results as of 3 April 2020


as to the effectiveness of
hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for
COVID-19, with some studies showing
little or no improvement.[293][294]
Anti-cytokine storm

Cytokine storm can be a complication in


the later stages of severe COVID-19. There
is evidence that hydroxychloroquine may
have anti-cytokine storm properties.[295]

Tocilizumab has been included in


treatment guidelines by China's National
Health Commission after a small study
was completed.[296][297] It is undergoing a
phase 2 non randomised test at the
national level in Italy after showing
positive results in people with severe
disease.[282][298][299] Combined with a
serum ferritin blood test to identify
cytokine storms, it is meant to counter
such developments, which are thought to
be the cause of death in some affected
people.[300][301][302] The interleukin-6
receptor antagonist was approved by the
FDA based on retrospective case studies
for treatment of steroid refractory cytokine
release syndrome induced by a different
cause, CAR T cell therapy, in 2017.[303] To
date, there is no randomised, controlled
evidence that tocilizumab is an efficacious
treatment for CRS. Prophylactic
tocilizumab has been shown to increase
serum IL-6 levels by saturating the IL-6R,
driving IL-6 across the blood brain barrier
and exacerbating neurotoxicity while
having no impact on incidence of CRS.[304]

Lenzilumab, an anti-GM-CSF monoclonal


antibody, has been shown to be protective
in murine models for CAR T cell induced
CRS and neurotoxicity and is a viable
therapeutic option due to the observed
increase of pathogenic GM-CSF secreting
T-cells in hospitalised patients with COVID-
19.[305]
The Feinstein Institute of Northwell Health
announced in March a study on "a human
antibody that may prevent the activity" of
IL-6.[306]

Passive antibody therapy

Transferring purified and concentrated


antibodies produced by the immune
systems of those who have recovered
from COVID-19 to people who need them
is being investigated as a non-vaccine
method of passive immunisation.[307] This
strategy was tried for SARS with
inconclusive results.[307] Viral
neutralisation is the anticipated
mechanism of action by which passive
antibody therapy can mediate defence
against SARS-CoV-2. Other mechanisms
however, such as antibody-dependent
cellular cytotoxicity and/or phagocytosis,
may be possible.[307] Other forms of
passive antibody therapy, for example,
using manufactured monoclonal
antibodies, are in development.[307]
Production of convalescent serum, which
consists of the liquid portion of the blood
from recovered patients and contains
antibodies specific to this virus, could be
increased for quicker deployment.[308]

See also
2019–20 coronavirus pandemic for
conditions in specific countries
Coronavirus diseases, a group of closely
related syndromes
Coronavirus recession
Disease X, a WHO term
Li Wenliang, a doctor at Central Hospital
of Wuhan, who later contracted and died
of COVID-19 after raising awareness of
the spread of the virus.

Notes
a. Close contact is defined as one metre
(three feet) by the WHO[6] and two
metres (six feet) by the CDC.[15]
b. An uncovered cough can travel up to
8.2 metres (27 feet).[16]

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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by the


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Symptoms of Covid-19, Flu, and Cold
Classification D
ICD-10: U07.1 ,
U07.2 •

MeSH:
C000657245 •

SNOMED CT:
840539006

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