Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
ON
BATCH: 2010-13
SUBMITTED TO
GUJARAT TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVESITY, AHMEDABAD
FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF
LAXMI VIDYAPEETH`S
BATCH: 2010-12
This is to certify that the content of this grand project report entitled “FII’s
INFLUENCE ON BSE STOCK MARKET OVER THE PERIOD 2002-
2012”by Mr. Vineeth V .Poliyath, Enrollment No. 107310592005 submitted to
Gujarat Technological University, Ahmadabad for the Award of Master of
Business Administration is original research work carried out by him under my
supervision during 14th January 2013 to 30th May 2013. On the basis of the
declaration made by him I recommend this project report for the evaluation.
This report has not been submitted either partly or fully to any other University
or Institute for award of any degree or diploma.
PAGE NO
TABLE NO TABLE
22
4.1 LIST OF BSE SENSEX COMPANIES
27
4.2 INTERNATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGES
52
5.1 PERFORMANCE OF SENSEX 1991-201
55
5.2 FII’s NET INFLOW FROM 2002-2012
57
5.3 FII’s NET INFLOW V/S SENSEX RETURN
60
5.4 SENSEX RETURN 2010
62
5.5 FII NET INFLOW
64
5.6 FII INFLOW V/S SENSEX RETURN
66
5.7 SENSEX FLUCTUATION
CORRELATION 67
5.8
CORRELATION 2012 69
5.9
TREND ANALYSIS-FUTURE 73
5.11
The satiation and euphonies that accompany the success completion of a task would
be incomplete without a mention of people who made it possible. So, with immense
gratitude, I acknowledge all those, whose guidance and encouragement served as a
beacon light and crowned my effort with success.
I have taken efforts in this grand project. However, it would not have been possible
without the kind support and help of many individuals and organizations. I would like
to extend my sincere thanks to all of them.
107310592005
BATCH: 2010-12
The project deals with the “Impact of Foreign Institutional Investors on Indian Stock
Market”. This research project studies the relationship between FIIs investment and
stock indices. For this purpose India’s major index i.e. BSE Sensex is selected. This
index would be used for to represent the picture of India’s stock markets. So this
project reveals the impact of FII on the Indian capital market.
There may be many other factors on which a stock index may depend i.e. Government
policies, budgets, bullion market, inflation, economic and political condition of the
country, FDI, Re./Dollar exchange rate etc. But for this study I have selected only one
independent variable i.e. FII. This study uses the concept of correlation, regression
and hypothesis to study the relationship between FII and stock index. The FII started
investing in Indian capital market from year 1991 when the Indian economy was
opened up in the same year. Their investments include equity only.
GENERNAL INFORMATION
The Indian economy has continuously recorded high growth rates and has become an
attractive destination for investments, according to Ms Pratibha Patil, the Indian
President. "India's growth offers many opportunities for mutually beneficial
cooperation," added Ms Patil. "Today India is among the most attractive destinations
globally, for investments and business and FDI had increased over the last few years,"
said Ms Patil.
The Indian economy is expected to grow at around 7.5 per cent, according to Dr
Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister. The PM acknowledged Asia's emerging
economies were "growing well" and were, "in fact, contributing to the recovery of the
world economy".
The overall growth of gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant prices,
as per Revised Estimates, was 8.5 per cent in 2010-11 representing an increase from
the revised growth of 8 per cent during 2009-10, according to the monthly economic
report released for the month of September 2011 by the Ministry of Finance. Overall
growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was 4.1 per cent during August
2011.
The eight core Infrastructure industries grew by 3.5 per cent in August 2011 and
during April-August 2011-12, these sectors increased by 5.3 per cent. In addition,
exports and imports in terms of US dollar increased by 44.3 per cent 41.8 per cent
respectively, during August 2011.
Over the next two years India could attract foreign direct investment (FDI) worth US$
80 billion, according to a research report by Morgan Stanley. India has received US$
48 billion FDI in the last two years. Considering the pace of FDI growth in India,
KPMG officials believe that FDI in 2011-12 might cross US$ 35 billion mark.
• India Inc announced 177 mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals worth US$
26.8 billion in the first nine months of 2011. For the quarter July-September
2011, inbound deals worth US$ 7.32 billion were registered as against the deals
worth US$ 2.65 billion in the previous quarter. Foreign institutional investors
(FIIs) have invested more than Rs 41,000 crore (US$ 7.81 billion) in
government papers and Rs 68,000 crore (US$ 12.95 billion) in corporate bonds
as on October 31, 2011
• The latest available data from the Reserve Bank of India show a 77 per cent
jump in the FDI in the first half of the current financial year (April-September),
compared to what was US$ 19.5 billion during the same period a year ago
• The total amount of FDI equity inflows during financial year 2011-12 from
April 2011 to September 2011 stood at US$ 19.14 billion aggregating to 74 per
cent growth over last year
• Private equity (PE) investments in India stood at US$ 6.14 billion in value
terms, while the number of deals increased by 33 per cent to 195, during
January-June 2011, according to data compiled by Chennai-based Venture
Intelligence. The rise in the value of the deals so far (June 2011) recorded a
growth of 52 per cent, as compared to US$ 4.04 billion raised last year
• The Indian metals and minerals sector has received PE investments worth US$
650 million in the first half of 2011, according to estimates by VC Edge. The
metal making industry has attracted PE players; in addition the mining assets
are also a major draw due to the sharp demand for ownership of raw materials
• India currently holds the 12th position in Asia and 68th position in the overall
list world's most attractive tourist destinations, as per the Travel and Tourism
Competitiveness Report 2011 by the World Economic Forum (WEF). A study
conducted by global hospitality services firm, HVS, to measure marketing
• The wind energy sector has attracted foreign direct investment (FDI) worth Rs
1,510 crore (US$ 287.62 million) over the past three years. In the renewable
energy sector, wind energy has emerged as the fastest growing category,
according to Dr Farooq Abdullah, Union Minister for New and Renewable
Energy
Furthermore, the Indian Railways has generated Rs 37,392.88 crore (US$ 7.12 billion)
of revenue earnings from commodity-wise freight traffic during April-October 2011
as compared to Rs 34,337.11 crore (US$ 6.54 billion) during the corresponding period
last year, registering an increase of 8.90 per cent. Railways carried 536.92 million tons
(MT) of commodity-wise freight traffic during April-October 2011 as compared to
516.89 MT carried during the corresponding period last year, registering an increase
of 3.88 per cent.
• Andhra Pradesh (AP) with 75 notified special economic zones (SEZs), which is
the highest number of SEZs in any State in India, has attracted investment of
approximately Rs 15,000 crore (US$ 2.86 billion)
• India is the 9th or 10th largest car maker in the world, but given its very
ambitious production plans, in the next five to ten years it will jump to the third
or fourth spot, according to Diane H Gulyas, President, DuPont Performance
• The Rs 15,000 crore (US$ 2.86 billion) Indian forging industry is poised to
grow over 20 per cent per year and see investments of about US$ 3 billion by
2015 for capacity expansion, according to the Association of Indian Forging
Industry.
• In addition, the Indian banking sector is poised to become the world's third-
largest in terms of assets over the next 14 years—with its assets poised to touch
US$ 28,500 billion by 2025—according to a report titled ‘Being five-star in
productivity — Roadmap for excellence in Indian banking', prepared for the
Indian Banks' Association (IBA) by The Boston Consultancy Group (BCG),
IBA and an industry body.
• The food processing industry is set to triple to reach US$ 900 billion by 2020,
provided the key issues are addressed, as per a study by Boston Consulting
Group (BCG) and an industry body.
• Gaining momentum from fashion trends, many Indian consumers now spend an
equivalent amount on footwear as on their apparels, as they associate variety of
shoes to different occasions. The footwear industry in India has almost doubled
in the past five years to an estimated Rs 20,000 crore (US$ 3.81 billion).
Indian Stock Markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to
nearly 200 years ago.
Today, BSE is the world’s number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed
companies and the world’s 5th in transaction numbers. The market capitalization as on
December 31, 2007 stood at USD 1.79 trillion. An inventor can choose from more
than 4700 listed companies, which for easy reference, are classified into A, B, S, T
and Z groups.The BSE Index, SENSEX, is Indian’s first stock market index that
enjoys an iconic stature, and is tracked worldwide. It is an index of 30 stocks
representing 12 malor sectors. The SENSEX is constructed on a ‘free-float’
methodology, and is sensitive to market sentiments and market realities. Apart from
the SENSEX, BSE offers 21 indices, including 12 sectoral indicates. BSE has entered
into an index cooperation agreement with Deutsche Borse. This agreement has made
SENSEEX and other BSE indices available to investors in Europe and America.
Moreover, Barclays Global Investors (BGI), the global leader in ETF’S through its
Trader which tracks the SENSEX. The ETF enables investors in Hong Kong to take
an exposure to the Indian equity market. BSE provides an efficient and transparent
market for trading in equity, debt instruments and derivatives. It has a nation- wide
reach with a pressure in more than 450 cities and towns of India. BSE has always been
at par with the international standards. The systems and processes are designed to
safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in operations.BSE is the first
exchange in India and the second is the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000
certification. It is also the first exchange in India and the second in the world to
receive Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002
certification for its BSE On-line Trading System (BOLT).BSE continues to innovate.
In recent times, it has become the first national level stock exchange to launch its
website in Gujarati and Hindi to reach out to a large number of investors. It has
successfully launched a reporting platform for corporate bonds in India christened the
ICDM or Indian Corporate Dept Market and a unique ticker screen aptly named ‘BSE
Broadcast’ which enables information dissemination to the common man on the street.
In 2006, BSE launched the Directors Database and ICERS (India Corporate Electronic
BSE Trading Institution: BTI imparts capital market trading and certification, in
collaboration with reputed management institutes and universities. It offers over 40
courses on various aspects of the capital market and financial sector. More than
20,000 people have attended the BTI programmes.
TABLE NO 4.1
• HC (health care)
• REALITY
• AUTO
• METAL
• IT
• CG (capital goods)
• ONG (oil and gas)
• POWER
• PSU
• CD (consumer durables)
• BANK
• TECH
• FMCG
‘FII’ include “Overseas pension funds, mutual funds, investment trust, asset
management company, nominee company, bank, institutional portfolio manager,
university funds, endowments, foundations, charitable trusts, charitable societies, a
trustee or power of attorney holder incorporated or established outside India proposing
to make proprietary investments or investments on behalf of a broad-based fund.
Unlike Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows which refer to that category of
international investment aimed at obtaining a lasting interest by a resident entity in
one economy in an enterprise resident in another economy by way of exercising
significant control over its management, FII flows are not directed at acquiring
management control over foreign companies. FII flows were almost non-existent until
1980s. Global capital flows were primarily characterized by syndicated bank loans in
1970s followed by FDI flows in 1980s.
Several research studies on FII flows to EMEs over the world have highlighted
that financial market infrastructure such as the market size, market liquidity, trading
costs, extent of information dissemination etc., legal mechanisms relating to property
rights etc., harmonization of corporate governance, accounting, listing and other rules
with those followed in developed markets, and strengthening of securities markets'
enforcement are important determinants of foreign portfolio investments into
emerging markets. Of late, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have initiated a string of measures like allowing overseas
Although FII flows help supplement the domestic savings and augment
domestic investments without increasing the foreign debt of the recipient countries,
correct current account deficits in the external balance of payments' position, reduce
the required rate of return for equity, and enhance stock prices of the host countries,
yet there are worries about the vulnerability of recipient countries' capital markets to
such flows. FII flows, often referred to as 'hot money' (i.e., short-term and overly
speculative), are extremely volatile in character compared to other forms of capital
flows.
• In 2004, FII investments crossed $9 billion, the highest in the history of Indian
capital markets.
• The total net investment for the year up to December 29 stood at US$9,072 million
while foreign investors pumped in about US$2,113 million in December.
• Korea and Taiwan have always been the biggest recipients of FII money. It was only
in 2004 that India managed to receive the second highest FII inflow at over $8.5bn.
• On 9th March 2009, India's exceptional growth story and its booming economy have
made the country a favourite destination with foreign institutional investors (FIIs). It
has continued to attract investment despite the Satyam non-governance issue and the
global economic contagion impact on Indian markets.
• They are also the most successful portfolio investors in India with 102 per cent
Prohibitions on Investments:
Foreign Institutional Investors are not permitted to invest in equity issued by an Asset
Reconstruction Company. They are also not allowed to invest in any company which
is engaged or proposes to engage in the following activities:
However, FIIs constitute a major proportion of such portfolio. The share of FIIs in
total portfolio flows was as high as 95.97% in 2003-04 and 93.25% in 2004-05. It
declined to 46% in 2006-07. This decline in FII investment in 2006-07 can be
The share of FII investment in total portfolio investment for 2007-08 is provisionally
estimated to be 69.15%. The large FII inflows (net) in 2007-08 at USD 16 billion as
against USD 6.7 billion in 2006-07 reflects increased participation of FIIs in the
primary market as corporates raised large resources through 85 initial public offerings
(IPOs) and 7 follow-on public offers (FPOs) aggregating to Rs 545,110 million. (US $
13,638 million).
Looking at monthly trend in FII investments during 2007-08 it can be seen that net
FII investment has been positive during most of the months. The months of August
2007, November 2007, January, 2008 and March, 2008 saw net outflows of FII
investment, with the largest pull out of US $ 2727 mn in January, 2008.
During 2008-09, till June 2008, FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of US $ 4,189
million. This can be attributed to the generally weak sentiments of investors following
the global credit crisis which has engulfed the developed countries and is seen to be
affecting the developing countries as well.
“ FII’s influence on the Sensex over the period 2000-2010 ”- is a study of the
influence of FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTERS whose activities play a vital
role in the ups and downs of the share market. The study is conducted on the Indian
stock exchange market ( BSE SENSEX) .
There are conflicting theories on the issue of whether FII flows affect or are affected
by domestic stock market returns. So, the present empirical study has been undertaken
to throw some light on the direction of causality between FII flows and Indian stock
market returns using data on both the variables from over the period 2002-
2012.International portfolio flows, as are commonly known as Foreign Institutional
Investment (FII) flows, refer to capital flows made by individual and institutional
investors across national borders with a view to creating an internationally diversified
portfolio. Unlike Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows which refer to that category
of international investment aimed at obtaining a lasting interest by a resident entity in
one economy in an enterprise resident in another economy by way of exercising
significant control over its management, FII flows are not directed at acquiring
management control over foreign companies. FII flows were almost non-existent until
1980s.
With more and more emerging market economies (EMEs), deregulating their
financial markets by eliminating foreign exchange controls, reducing taxes imposed
on foreign investors, relaxing the restrictions on the purchase / sale of securities by
foreign investors in domestic markets etc. they are increasing in number. Foreign
Institutional Investment (FII) flows, i.e., capital flows across national borders, to
emerging market economies (EMEs) have risen sharply over the past one and half
decade due to globalization and India is no exception in this regard. However, there is
a lot of apprehension regarding the volatile nature of such flows thereby raising
questions about the need to encourage FII flows in a narrow and shallow stock market
like that of India.
Purendra Verma (2002) has investigated the impact of FII on Capital Market to
find the relation between FII and Stock indices. For this he has taken seven indices
into consideration, out of them five are Consumer Durables, Capital Goods, Fast
Moving Consumer Goods, Health Care, Information Technology and the other two are
Sensex and Nifty. He observed these indices during January 1993 to September 2001.
If BSE & Nifty increase with rise in FII investment, He has taken hypothesis for this
study. To find out the results he used least square method. Finally, after completing
his study he concluded that except IT sector on all other indices the impact is very low
during January 1993 to September 2001 as the correlation is negative in Consumer
Durables, Capital Goods, Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Health Care, Sensex and
Nifty. Paramita Mukherjee, Suchismita Bose and Dipankar Coondoo (2002) carried
out research on the topic Foreign Institutional Investment in The Indian Equity Market
an Analysis of daily flows during Jan 1999 - May 2002. The paper was conducted to
understand the relationship of foreign institutional investment (FII) flows to the
Indian equity market. FII flows to and from the Indian market tend to be caused by
return in the domestic equity market and not the other way round. Returns in the
equity market are very important to influence the flows of FIIs in the country. They
concluded that in India the prime focus should be on regaining investor’s confidence
in the equity market so as to strengthen the domestic investor’s base of the market.
TIMS Batch 2008-10, Leena Kanjani, Sulabh Mehta, Anita Pariyani, Amin
Pattani, Mehul Rakholiya & Krishna Vyas conducted a research study on FII in India,
they analyzed the monthly movement of stock market from 2006 to 2009. The paper
was conducted to understand influence of FII on movement of Indian Stock market
and to understand the FII policy in India.They used Correlation and Hypothesis test
methodology and concluded that FII did have significant impact on Sensex but there is
less co-relation with Benkex and IT.
“FII’s influence on the Sensex over the period 2000-2010”- is a study of the
influence of FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTERS whose activities play a vital
role in the ups and downs of the share market. The study is conducted on the Indian
stock exchange market (BSE SENSEX) .
There are conflicting theories on the issue of whether FII flows affect or are affected
by domestic stock market returns. So, the present empirical study has been undertaken
to throw some light on the direction of causality between FII flows and Indian stock
market returns using data on both the variables from over the period 2000- 2010.
With more and more emerging market economies (EMEs), deregulating their
financial markets by eliminating foreign exchange controls, reducing taxes imposed
on foreign investors, relaxing the restrictions on the purchase / sale of securities by
foreign investors in domestic markets etc. they are increasing in number.
BROKERAGE INDUSTRY
The Indian retail brokerage industry consists of companies that primarily act as
agents for the buying and selling of securities (e.g. stocks, shares, and similar financial
instruments) on a commission or transaction fee basis. It has two main interdependent
segments: Primary market and the Secondary market. Now this market is extended to
fields like currency, commodity, mutual fund, insurance etc...
The Indian equity brokerage industry thrived on the back of equity markets'
sustained bull run during 2003-07. Although high competitive pressure meant
continuous compression of brokerage commissions and low electronic penetration
kept operating costs high, industry revenue was growing. Furthermore, the industry
attracted domestic and foreign investment interest at high valuations of upto 45x P/E
multiples. During this time, many of the key players started expanding their portfolio
of services to include wealth management and advisory services, sale of insurance and
mutual fund products, consumer financing and so on.
However, post-2008, the economic downturn - muted trading turnover,
relentless competitive pressure and decreasing margins, continued high operating
costs and high margining requirements - has put the industry under pressure.
Profitability is muted and the major players are under pressure to build scale.
Expansion of scale and investments into technological systems has the potential to
lead the top brokerage firms into paths of higher growth, but the current economic
climate is clearly against heavy investments.
The basic function of a brokerage firm is to execute buy and sell orders for
clients. Traditionally these firms have offered the investigation of the quality and the
possibilities of investing in a variety of investment products. It is still accustomed for
brokerage firms to offer information about possible investments free of charge. This
activity of bringing free of charge stock investment reports is one of the main tools
that are utilized by brokerage houses to compete against other firms and to investors it
continues to be an important service
Stock brokerage firms have been an established feature in the financial industry
for nearly one thousand years. Dealing in debt securities, brokers employ a variety of
systems to aid investors with the purchase and sales of stocks and bonds in a variety of
markets. The firms have changed over the years, growing to massive organizations
that can affect the entire financial sector positively or negatively with their
performance. Changing with the times, the early twenty-first century saw a rise of
online trading that enabled the average investor to take part in the stock market for the
first time.
1. History
During the 11th century, the French began regulating and trading agricultural
debts on behalf of the banking community, creating the first brokerage system. In the
1300s, houses began to be set up in major cities like Flanders and Amsterdam in
which commodity traders would hold meetings. Soon, Venetian brokers began to trade
in government securities, expanding the importance of the firms.
In 1602, the Dutch East India Company became the first publicly traded company in
which shareholders could own a portion of the business. The stocks improved the size
of companies and became the standard bearer for the modern financial system.
2. Significance
During the 1900s, stock brokerage firms began to move in a direction of market
makers. They adopted the policy of quoting both the buying and selling price of a
security. This allows a firm to make a profit from establishing the immediate sale and
purchase price to an investor. The conflict with brokerage firms setting prices creates
the concern that insider trading can result from the sharing of information. Regulators
have enforced a system called Chinese Walls to prevent communication between
different departments within the brokerage company. This has resulted in increased
profits and greater interconnection within the financial industry.
4. Effects
The creation of high valued brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs and Bear
Sterns created a system of consolidation. Working with hundreds of billions of
dollars, the larger firms began to merge and take over smaller firms in the last half of
the 20th century. Firms like Smith Barney were acquired by Citigroup and other
investment banks, creating massive financial institutions that valued, held, sold,
insured and invested in securities. This conglomeration of the financial sector created
an environment of volatility that caused a chain reaction when other firms like Bear
Sterns and Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Trillions of dollars of assets were
tied together in different companies and resulted in a large economic collapse in late
2008.
5. Features
A large share of the brokerage firms have moved to an online format. Smaller
brokers such as E*Trade, TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab have taken control of
most individual investors accounts. The added convenience and personal attention
paid to the small investor has resulted in a large influx of activity. In addition, the fact
that the online resources offer up-to-the-minute pricing and immediate trades makes
their format appealing to the modern user. Discounted commissions have lessened the
price of trades, giving access to a wider swath of people and adding liquidity to the
Full service brokerage firms continue to offer informative stock reports and a
level of service much higher than other brokerage houses. Discount brokerage houses
only dedicate themselves to execute orders for clients. Full service brokers are sellers
looking for purchasing and selling for clients and offering more customer service than
is available from discount brokers. It is many times possible that a client will not even
know who is taking care of the buy or sell order that they placed.
The Indian retail brokerage market is showing phenomenal growth. The total
trading volume of brokerage companies has increased from US$1239.1 billion in 2004
to US$1492.1 billion in 2005, and is expected to reach US$6535.7 billion by 2015.
Some of the main characteristics of the brokerage industry include growth in e-
broking; growing derivatives market, decline in brokerage fees etc.
Today, as per NSDL statistics, we have only 2.4 million investors with demat
accounts in the country. Considering various investor combinations that are holding
accounts, we can presume the country has roughly 5-7.5 lakh active investors now.
This figure is unbelievably small compared to the potential number of investors,
which is anything between 200 million and 250 million. When we take into
consideration the way transaction risk and cost in the Indian capital market is coming
down, there will be a massive surge in the number of investors and also in volumes.
The only way to manage this kind of potential growth is to adopt state-of-the-art
trading techniques.
The growth of Internet-based trading as a mass trading technique in the country
is unstoppable, going by the indicators available and the signals for the future. When it
To familiarize with the trends in the stock market(BSE) over the years
The methodology of the study is through collecting the primary and secondary
data.
Primary data refers to the data collected by the investigator directly through
primary sources. It includes;
Direct observation.
Interview (personal).
Books
Journals
Websites
Time
Analysis is conducted only on the basis of some factors therefore cent percent
accuracy is not possible.
Lack of reliability of Secondary data
By Sensex return
• From 2002-2013
• In 2012 ( monthly basis)
• Trend analysis
Indices :SENSEX
INTERPRETATION
The Bombay stock exchange (BSE SENSEX) which is one of the most important
secondary market in India ,has seen many ups and downs from its years of its starting
in 1991. The market opened at 1027.38 point and closed at 1908.85 with a high value
of 1955.29 and with a low value of 947.14 in the same year.
Since then, the values in the Sensex has increased and decreased. From the table, it
can be found that the Sensex crossed the four digit number in 2006 , and at 13786.91
from the previous year value of 9397.93 (2005)
The changes in the value of Sensex depends upon many factors, like ..
When the recession began to end in the world, the Sensex and other markets could
see increase in value. And at the end of 2010 the Sensex closed at 20509.09
2013 till
MAY 65796.04 50791.74 15004.46
Source : moneycontrol.com
TABLE NO 5.2
2013 till
MAY 15004.46 -88.31070569
TABLE NO 5.3
When comparing the Sensex returns and the FII net inflow from the years , it can be
found that the Sensex gain height returns in the year 2009 (81.03%) and the FII net
inflow at that year was 85367 Cr.
And the Sensex loss maximum point (-46.522) when the net inflow was - 53051 Cr in
the year 2008. Recession and many other global and national issues were key factors
for this change.
The negative sign show that in 2008 FII’s were not investing their money. They were
sellers.
Jan-12 17,193.55
TABLE NO 5.4
The Sensex gain maximum return 11.670% during the month of September 2010.
And loss -3.49% in May by making the Sensex to close at 16944.63
CHART NO 5.4
Source : moneycontrol.com
TABLE NO 5.5
CHART 5.5
TABLE NO 5.6
INTERPRETATION
From the given table, the Sensex gain maximum return 11.670% during the month of
September 2010 when the FII’s inflow was 29195 Cr.. And the Sensex loss -3.49% in
the month of May, where the FII net inflow was -8629.90.
That means the Sensex was changing according to the inflow and out flow of
investment during the months of 2010.
Analysis is done for finding the correlation between FII investment and the sensex
fluctuation during the period from 2000-2010. Net yearly FII investment is calculated
by subtracting the gross sell value from the gross purchase value in the particular year
by FII. And the fluctuation in sensex is calculated by subtracting previous years
closing point from the current year.
TABLE NO 5.7
TABLE OF CORRELATION
BSE
Years FLUCTUATION(X) (Cr)(Y) n(XY) X^2 Y^2
TABLE NO 5.8
ΣX= 16164.38Cr
ΣY = 517612.90 Cr
Mean Σy/11 = 47055.72Cr
Coefficient of Correlation =
r = -53596330224.069 / √32129925359.72
r= -0.17
INTERPRETATION
The Coefficient of Correlation analysis between FII’s net inflow and Sensex return
from 2002-2012 gives a correlation of -0.17 which is a low degree negative
correlation that means the Sensex movement is negatively corelated to the FII
investment during the period 2002 to 2012. Negative values indicate a relationship
between x and y such that as values for x increase, values for y decrease.
Net
FLUCTUATION
Month Investment(Cr) n(XY) X^2 Y^2
(Y)
(X)
Jan
1,40,96,841.473
Feb 25,212.10 559.13 63,56,49,986.41 312626.3569
TABLE NO 5.9
∑X = 118003.00
∑Y = 2233.16
R = 221234040.85/ √ (98673.67*7627.33)
= 5068770244.14 / 752616202.39
= 0.29
INTERPRETATION
TABLE NO 5.10
Here the base year is 2000, in which FII net inflow was 6370.50 Cr. And it is assigned
as 100 point. The trend analysis is conducted by calculating percentage change in FII
net inflow in each year in relation to the base year
From the analysis it is known that the net inflow of money by FII during the period
from 2001-08 is fluctuating in nature. The growing Indian economy and increasing
GDP growth rate has resulted in a positive trend towards FII investment, and from the
year 2010 it shows the negative growth.
2013 86338
2014 92770
2015 99202
2016 105634
2017 112065
2018 118497
2019 124929
2020 131360
TABLE NO 5.11
INTERPRETATION
From the trend analysis (advanced) of FII net inflow to the Indian economy, it is
found that the trend is increasing in nature. That means the FII’s will increase their
inflow of money in future also.
• The study on the inflow of FII to the Indian equity market has shown that
the inflow is also fluctuating and it is increasing in recent years.
• From the correlation study between sensex movement and FII inflow ,
found that the fluctuations in sensex is not much related to the FII
investment
From the trend analysis it is observed that the trend in FII inflow to the Indian
economy is positive in nature. However it is purely based on the assumption
without involving the economic and global crisis.
Also FII is not the only factor affecting the stock indices. There are other major
factors that influence the bourses in the stock market. And from the FII’s analysis
on Sensex return, it can be concluded that FII do have any significant impact on
the Indian Stock Market but there are other factors like government policies,
budgets, bullion market, inflation, economical and political condition, etc. do also
have an impact on the Indian stock market.
After the analysis of the project study, following recommendations can be made:
• From the analysis there could not find a good positive relationship between
FII's and sensex return (may be because of the data collected is on the yearly
basis & Sensex return is not only dependent upon FII's investment only). They
are needed to be encouraged to enter in Indian market. Because their absence
result in huge change in the market
BOOKS
I.M Panday “Financial Management”, Vikas Publishing house Private ltd, New Delhi,
2009
Uma Sekaran ,”Reserch Methodology For Business, John Wile And Sons,Inc
WEBSITES
www . bse.india..com
www.hedgeequities.com
www.sebi.com