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EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Property
Address: Przyczolkowa, Sarmacka, Branickiego Sts., Warsaw

Main Use: Wilanow One Project: three apartments, three penthouses and
eleven garages located in existing buildings as well as
undeveloped land of 178,723*) sq m designated for
residential and commercial purposes.
NB. * Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. is no longer the owner of the plot
no. 2/65 of 981 sq m however, we have been asked by the
Client to take into account the above plot in the valuation.

Tenure
Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. has the perpetual usufruct right to the land until
27th September 2089 and owns the freehold of the buildings.

Tenancies and Covenant Strengths


The property is not the subject of any leases.

Purpose of valuation
The valuation was commissioned by the Client for internal purposes.

Valuation Date
30th June 2013
Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723
sq m under Special Assumption (1)
Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m under the Special
Assumption that the new Master Plan has been approved.
PLN 156,113,000 (ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY SIX MILLION ONE HUNDRED AND
THIRTEEN THOUSAND PLN)
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723


sq m under Special Assumption (2)
Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m under the Special
Assumption that the new Master Plan has been approved and that the site has been
geodetically divided into five properties in accordance with the new zoning:
PLN 180,728,000 (ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY MILLION SEVEN HUNDRED
AND
TWENTY EIGHT THOUSAND PLN),
including:
 Site B1 (symbol 2MW(ZP)):
43,656,000 PLN
 Site B2 (symbol 4MW(ZP)):
44,099,000 PLN
 Site C1,2,3 (symbol 3MW(U)):
22,685,000 PLN
 Site Commercial 1,2,3,4,5 (symbol 6UH/U(ZP), 7UH/U):
65,102,000 PLN
 Site UO (symbol 5UO):
5,186,000 PLN
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Market Value of 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and


11 garages
Market Value of 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and 11 garages:
PLN 4,966,000 (FOUR MILLION NINE HUNDRED AND SIXTY SIX THOUSAND PLN)
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Comments
Positive
 Prestigious location close to the Wilanow Palace within a fast developing
residential area consisting of new, low-rise residential buildings;
 Regular shape of the site;
 Proximity of recreation areas such as Natolin Park, Marysin Park and the
Kabacki
Forest;
 New Master Plan currently under approval procedure.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

Negative:
 Located in the suburbs of the city, with a significant distance to the city
centre;
 Average accessibility with respect to public transport (only bus lines serve the
area);
 Subject of perpetual usufruct right;
 Large size of the site (17 ha);
 Mixed use (residential, office and educational project);
 Large scale of the project - together with numerous planned/pipeline
residential estates within the district may keep apartment prices at a low level.
V ALUA TION REPORT 8

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VALUATION REPORT
VALUATION REPORT 9

VALUATION REPORT

CBRE Sp. z o.o.

Rondo ONZ 1
00-124 Warsaw
Poland

Switchboard +48 22 544 80 00


Fax +48 22 544 80 01

Report Date 17th July 2013


The Directors
Addressee
Wilanow One Sp. z o.o.
271-279 Przyczolkowa St.
Warsaw
Poland
For the attention of Michal Stepien

Property Description Wilanow One Project: three apartments, three


penthouses and eleven garages located in existing
buildings as well as undeveloped land of 178,723 sq m
designated for residential and commercial purposes.

Instruction To provide a valuation on the basis of Market Value as


at the Valuation Date in accordance with the agreement
dated 30th June 2013.

Capacity of Valuer External

Purpose of Valuation Internal


Subject and Scope of The subject of the valuation is three apartments, three
Valuation penthouses and eleven garages located in existing
buildings as well as undeveloped land of 178,723*
sq m designated for residential and commercial
purposes, located in Warsaw, Wilanow District at
Przyczolkowa/Sarmacka/Branickiego Sts.
VALUATION REPORT 10
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The properties are described in the Real Estate Registers


Nos. WA2M/000196355/4, WA2M/00474976/6,
WA2M/000496681/1 (undeveloped land) and
WA2M/00474968/7, WA2M/000474974/2 (3
penthouses, 3 apartments and 11 garages).
The scope of our valuation includes the RPU interest
in the undeveloped land of 178,723*)sq m covering
the plots Nos. 2/80, 2/65, 2/66, 2/67, 2/77 as well as
the freehold interest in 3 penthouses, 3 apartments
and
11 garages.
NB. * Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. is no longer the owner of
the plot no. 2/65 of 981 sq m however, we have been
asked by the Client to take into account the above plot
in the valuation.

Valuation Date 30th June 2013


Currency Exchange We have adopted in our valuation the currency
Rate exchange rate EUR1 = 4.32 PLN.

Market Value of the Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m


undeveloped site of under the Special Assumption that the new Master Plan
178,723 sq m under has been approved.
Special Assumption PLN 156,113,000 (ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY SIX
(1) MILLION ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN THOUSAND
PLN).
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Market Value of the Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m


undeveloped site of under the Special Assumption that the new Master Plan
178,723 sq m under has been approved and that the site has been
Special Assumption geodetically divided into five separated properties in
(2) accordance with the new Master Plan:
PLN 180,728,000 (ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY
MILLION SEVEN HUNDRED AND TWENTY EIGHT
THOUSAND PLN),including:
 Site B1 (symbol 2MW(ZP)):
43,656,000 PLN
 Site B2 (symbol 4MW(ZP)):
44,099,000 PLN
 Site C1,2,3 (symbol 3MW(U)):
22,685,000 PLN
 Site Commercial 1,2,3,4,5 (symbol
6UH/U(ZP)
 7UH/U): 65,102,000 PLN
 Site UO (symbol 5UO): 5,186,000 PLN
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and
VAT.
Market Value of 3 Market Value of 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and 11
penthouses, 3 garages:
apartments and PLN 4,966,000 (FOUR MILLION NINE HUNDRED AND
11 garages SIXTY SIX THOUSAND PLN)
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Special Assumptions Special Assumption (1):


That the new Master Plan for the undeveloped site
of
178,723 sq m has been approved.
Special Assumption (2):
That the new Master Plan for the undeveloped site
of
178,723 sq m has been approved and that the site has
been geodetically divided into five separated properties
in accordance with the new Master Plan.
Moreover, all Market Values are calculated under the
additional Special Assumption that the owner of the plot
no. 2/65 of 981 sq m is still Wilanow One Sp. z o.o.
Compliance with The valuation has been prepared in accordance with
Valuation Standards the Polish legal regulations (incl. Property Management
Act), General National Valuation Principles (PKZW),
Valuation Standards of the Polish Federation of Valuers
Association (PFVA) and the Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Valuation – Professional
Standards (2012).

We confirm that we have sufficient current local and


national knowledge of the particular property market
involved, and have the skills and understanding to
undertake the valuation competently. Where the
knowledge and skill requirements of The Red Book have
been met in aggregate by more than one valuer within
CBRE, we confirm that a list of those valuers has been
retained within the working papers, together with
confirmation that each named valuer complies with the
requirements of The Red Book.
Assumptions The property details on which each valuation is
based are as set out in this report. We have made
various assumptions as to tenure, letting, town
planning, and
the condition and repair of buildings and sites –
including ground and groundwater contamination – as
set out below.

If any of the information or assumptions on which the


valuation is based are subsequently found to be
incorrect, the valuation figures may also be incorrect
and should be reconsidered.

Variation from No
Standard
Assumptions

Market Conditions The values stated in this report represent our objective
opinion of Market Value in accordance with the
definition set out above as of the date of
valuation. Amongst other things, this assumes that the
properties had been properly marketed and that
exchange of contracts took place on this date.
Going forward, we would draw your attention to the
fact that the current volatility in the global financial
system has created a significant degree of turbulence in
commercial real estate markets across the
world. Furthermore, the lack of liquidity in the capital
markets means that it may be very difficult to achieve a
sale of property assets in the short-term. We would
therefore recommend that the situation and the
valuations are kept under regular review, and that
specific marketing advice is obtained should you wish to
effect a disposal.

Verification We recommend that before any financial


transaction is entered into based upon these
valuations, you obtain verification of the information
contained within our report and the validity of the
assumptions we have
adopted.
We would advise you that whilst we have valued the
property reflecting current market conditions, there are
certain risks which may be, or may become,
uninsurable. Before undertaking any financial
transaction based upon this valuation, you should
satisfy yourselves as to the current insurance cover
and the risks that may be involved should an uninsured
loss occur.

Methodology Due to the fact that the property is planned for


development we have used the Mixed approach and
Residual method in our valuation.
We have applied the comparative approach and sales
comparison technique for the valuation of penthouses,
apartments and garages.

Valuer The property has been valued by a valuer


who is qualified for the purpose of the valuation in
accordance with the RICS Valuation – Professional
Standards (The
Red Book), PFVA Standards and the Polish law.

Independence The total fees, including the fee for this


assignment, earned by CBRE Sp. z o.o. from the
Addressee are less than 5.0% of the total revenues.

Disclosure The principal signatory of this report has not been the
signatory of valuations for the same addressee and
valuation purpose as this report. CBRE Sp. z o.o. has
not continuously been carrying out valuation instructions
for the addressee of this report.

Conflicts of Interest We confirm that we have had no previous material


involvement with the property and that copies of our
conflict of interest checks have been retained within the
working papers.

Reliance This report is for the use only of the party to whom it
is addressed for the specific purpose set out herein and
no responsibility is accepted to any third party for the
whole
or any part of its contents.
Publication Neither the whole nor any part of our report nor any
references thereto may be included in any published
document, circular or statement nor published in any
way without our prior written approval of the form and
context in which it will appear.

Such publication of, or reference to this report will


not be permitted unless it contains a sufficient
contemporaneous reference to any departure from the
Valuation Standards or the incorporation of the special
assumptions referred to herein.
The report may be published by Africa Israel
Properties
Ltd. as appendix to the financial report as of 30th June
2013.
We do not take responsibility to any other parties than
mentioned in the valuation agreement attached to this
report. Our professional liability is limited
to
15,000,000 EUR as stated in this valuation agreement.
Yours faithfully Yours faithfully

Maciej Wójcikiewicz MRICS Agnieszka Wierzchowska MRICS


Senior Director Associate Director
Property Valuer License no. 3359 Property Valuer License no. 3761
For and on behalf of For and on behalf of
CBRE Sp. z o.o. CBRE Sp. z o.o.

T: 22 544 80 21 T: 22 544 80 79

E: maciej.wojcikiewicz@cbre.com E: agnieszka.wierzchowska@cbre.com

CBRE Sp. z o.o. – Valuation & Advisory


Services
T: 22 544 8000
F: 22 544 8001
W: www.cbre.com
SCOPE OF WORK & SOURCES OF
INFORMATION
Sources of We have carried out our work based upon information
Information supplied to us by Client (Wilanow One Sp. z o.o.) which
we have assumed to be correct and comprehensive:
 Wilanow One -
Business Plan
 Excerpts and maps from the
Land Register
 Excerpt from the
Master Plan
 Project of the new
Master Plan
 Building Permit for
B1 phase
 Occupancy Permit for the building A1
and A2
 Floor plans of apartments and
penthouses
 Property Tax
declaration

Inspection We inspected the Property on 9th July 2013. The


inspection was undertaken by Agnieszka Wierzchowska.

Areas We have relied upon the areas provided by the


Client for the purposes of this valuation.
We have not undertaken site and apartments check
measurements
Environmental We have not undertaken, nor are we aware of the
Matters content of, any environmental audit or other
environmental investigation or soil survey which may
have been carried out on the property and which may
draw attention to any contamination or the possibility of
any such contamination.

We have not carried out any investigation into the past


or present uses of the property, nor of any neighbouring
land, in order to establish whether there is any potential
for contamination and have therefore assumed that
none exists.
Repair and Condition For the completed apartments, we have not carried out
building surveys, tested services, made independent site
investigations, inspected woodwork, exposed parts of
the structure which were covered, unexposed or
inaccessible, nor arranged for any investigations to be
carried out to determine whether or not any deleterious
or hazardous materials or techniques have been
used, or are present, in any part of the property.
We are unable, therefore, to give any assurance
that the property is free from defect.

Town Planning We have been provided with the planning documents


by the Client. We have undertaken a verbal planning
check with the local authorities. Information supplied to
us by planning officers is given without liability on
their
part and we cannot therefore accept responsibility for
incorrect information or for material omissions in the
information supplied to us.
Titles, Tenures and Details of title/tenure under which the property is
Lettings held and of lettings to which it is subject are as
supplied to us. We have not generally examined nor
had access to all the deeds, leases or other
documents relating thereto. Where information from
deeds, leases or other documents is recorded in this
report, it represents our understanding of the relevant
documents. We should emphasise, however, that the
interpretation of the documents of title (including
relevant deeds, leases and planning consents) is the
responsibility of your legal adviser.
VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS
Capital Values The valuation has been prepared on the basis
of “Market Value”, which is defined by the Property
Management Act dated August 21, 1997 with later
amendments as below:
“Market Value of the Property constitutes the most
probable price, likely to be achieved on the market,
established with the consideration of transactional
prices and based on the following assumptions:
1. the Parties had each acted in an arm's-length
transaction, without compulsion and having the
firm intention to conclude an agreement;
2. the Property was exposed to the market for a
sufficient period of time to negotiate the terms
of an agreement.”
A similar definition of “Market Value” is included in the
PFVA’s Valuation Standards (KSWP 1), in the
International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC)
and adopted by the RICS Valuation – Professional
Standards (2012) – VS 3.2) as well as by TEGoVA
(European Valuation Standards 6th edition - S 5).
“Market Value” is defined as:

“The estimated amount for which an asset or liability


should exchange on the valuation date between a
willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s length
transaction after proper marketing and where the
parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and
without compulsion”.

No allowances have been made for any expenses of


realisation nor for taxation which might arise in the
event of a disposal. Acquisition costs have not been
included in our valuation.

No account has been taken of any inter-company


leases or arrangements, nor of any mortgages,
debentures or other charges.

No account has been taken of the availability or


otherwise of capital based Government or European
Community grants.
Key Valuation Dates If it was not specified otherwise, the date on which a
property value was established is identical to the
date on which a property condition was determined.

Special Assumptions According to the Valuation Standards, a “Special


Assumption” is an assumption that:
 either assumes facts that differ from the
actual facts existing at the valuation date,
 or that would not be made by a
typical market participant in a transaction on the
valuation date.

Rental Values Rental values indicated in our report are those


which have been adopted by us as appropriate in
assessing the capital value and are not necessarily
appropriate for other purposes nor do they necessarily
accord with the
definition of Market Rent.
Legal and Factual Below we present a list of legal and formal bases, upon
Basis which our valuation has been based:
 Civil Code, Law of 23rd April 1964 (Dz.
U. No. 16 item 93 with further amendments);
 Building Law of 7th July 1994 (Dz. U, No.
243 item
1623 of 2010);
 Law of 21st August 1997 Act on
Property
Administration (unitary text Dz. U. No. 102, item
651 of 2010) with further amendments;
 Council of Ministers Ordinance 21st
September
2004 on the detailed principles of preparing
property valuations and of conditions and
procedures of preparing valuation surveys (Dz. U.
No. 207 item 2109 of 2004) with further
amendments
 RICS Valuation – Professional
Standards (2012).
 Professional Standards for Property
Valuation Valuers, PFVA.
Methodology 2007;
 General National Valuation
Principles, PFVA.

Comparative Approach, Sales Comparison


Method
This approach involves comparing
the subject property with the closest
comparable properties, of which at
least three used for comparison
have been sold. The prices
achieved for these properties are
then applied to the subject
property or site following an
adjustment to
VALUATION REPORT 20
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reflect the difference in the nature of the subject


property or investment.
Residual Method
The residual method is described as a method of
determining the value of a property that has
potential for development, redevelopment or
refurbishment. The estimated total cost of the work
or construction, including fees and other associated
expenditure, plus an allowance for interest, developer’s
risk and profit, is deducted from the gross value of the
completed project. The resultant figure is therefore
the amount which is available to purchase the site.

The Property Where appropriate we have regarded the shop fronts of


retail and showroom accommodation as forming an
integral part of the building.

Landlord’s fixtures such as lifts, escalators, central


heating and other normal service installations have
been treated as an integral part of the building and are
included within our valuations.

Process plant and machinery, tenants’ fixtures and


specialist trade fittings have been excluded from our
valuations.

All measurements, areas and ages quoted in our report


are approximate.
Environmental In the absence of any information to the contrary,
Matters we have assumed that:

(a) the property is not contaminated and is not


adversely affected by any existing or proposed
environmental law;

(b) any processes which are carried out on the property


which are regulated by environmental legislation are
properly licensed by the appropriate authorities.

Energy Performance We have been informed that the buildings where the
Certificates penthouses and apartments are located all possess a
current Energy Performance Certificate.

Repair and Condition In the absence of any information to the contrary,


we have assumed that:
(a) there are no abnormal ground conditions, nor
archaeological remains, present which might adversely
affect the current or future occupation, development or
value of the property;

(b) the property is free from rot, infestation, structural or


latent defect;

(c) no currently known deleterious or hazardous


materials or suspect techniques, including but
not limited to Composite Panelling, have been used in
the construction of, or subsequent alterations or
additions to, the property; and

(d) the services, and any associated controls or


software, are in working order and free from defect.

We have otherwise had regard to the age and apparent


general condition of the property. Comments made in
the property details do not purport to express an
opinion about, or advise upon, the condition of
uninspected parts and should not be taken as making
an implied representation or statement about such
parts.
Title, Tenure, Unless stated otherwise within this report, and in the
Planning and Lettings absence of any information to the contrary, we have
assumed that:

(a) the property possesses a good and marketable title


free from any onerous or hampering restrictions or
conditions;

(b) all buildings have been erected either prior to


planning control, or in accordance with planning
permissions, and have the benefit of permanent
planning consents or existing use rights for their current
use;

(c) the property is not adversely affected by town


planning or road proposals;

(d) all buildings comply with all statutory and local


authority requirements including building, fire and
health and safety regulations;
(e) where appropriate, permission to assign the interest
being valued herein would not be withheld by the
landlord where required; and

(f) only minor or inconsequential costs will be incurred if


any modifications or alterations are necessary in
order for occupiers of the property to comply with
the provisions of the relevant disability discrimination
legislation.

VAT All rents and capital values stated in this report are
exclusive of VAT.
PROPER Y REPOR T 23
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PROPERTY REPORT
PROPERTY REPORT 24
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PROPERTY DETAILS
Location
The subject site is located in southern Warsaw, in Wilanow District, between
Przyczolkowa and Sarmacka St., south of the intersection with Branickiego St.
Rzeczpospolitej Ave., which is currently under construction, is some 200 meters west
from the property is the one of the district’s main exit roads running from
intersection with Herbu Korczak St. up to the crossing with Wilanowska Ave. In the near
future an extension of Rzeczpospolitej Ave. to the south to Sarmacka St. and then further
on to the Warsaw Southern Bypass road is planned. The city’s road scheme planning
also includes the construction of a viaduct over Wilanowska Ave. that will serve as a
direct connection between Rzeczpospolitej Ave. and Sobieskiego St and will improve car
access to the city centre.
Wilanowski Palace – a historic monument and one of the major Warsaw tourist
attractions is situated about 1 km to the east from the subject site.
Kabacki Forest Reserve – one Warsaw’s major recreation areas is located 6 km south of
the subject property. Further south, there is Konstancin Jeziorna town, where a
health park and luxury villas are located.

A location map is attached in Appendix A.

Accessibility
Car and pedestrian access is enabled from Sarmacka and Branickiego Sts. as well as
being facilitated from the planned Uprawna St. to the south and supported with internal
access roads.
Public transport is currently secured with two bus lines (217, 422) with stops at
Rzeczpospolita Ave, approximately 200 m from the property as well as numerous
running along Przyczolkowa St. and Wilanowska Ave respectively 0.5 km and 2 km from
the property.
There is a bus depot located at the crossroads of Wiertnicza St. and Wilanowska
Ave, some 1.5 km north from the property.

Situation
The immediate neighbourhood comprises of residential developments as well
as undeveloped land.
The property borders:
 Sarmacka St. and further multi-family residential developments from the
west. There is a hospital building located at Rzeczpospolitej Ave approximately 200
m west from the property;
 Przyczolkowa St. and further single and multi-family residential
developments to the east;
 Branickiego St. to the north and further multi-family residential
apartments to the north and north-west as well as undeveloped land to the north-
east;
 Undeveloped land and further on the planned southern ring road to
the south. A site plan is attached at Appendix A.

Site Description
The development site has a total area of 178,723 sq m and consists of the
following plots:

Schedule of plots
Plot No Precinct Real Estate Register Plot area (sq m)
(KW) Number
2/66 1-10-37 4,254
2/77 1-10-37 2,534
2/67 1-10-37 2,321
*)
2/65 1-10-37 981
2/80 1-10-37 168,633
Total 178,723
Source: Land
Register

NB. * Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. is no longer the owner of the plot no. 2/65 of 981 sq m
however, we have been asked by the Client to take into account the above plot in the
valuation.
The site is close to rectangular in shape. Its longer sides are adjacent to Przyczolkowska
St. (to the east) and to Sarmacka St (to the west). Its shorter side is adjacent to
Branickiego St. (to the north).
The plots presented in the table above are not developed and are planned for the
development of the future phases of the Wilanow One project.
The plot nos. 2/78 (WA2M/00474968/7) with a total area of 10,223 sq m and 2/79
(WA2M/000474974/2) with the total area 4,976, sq m, not listed above, have been
developed with the buildings in which the valued apartments, penthouses and
garages are located.

Project Description
The site of 178,723 sq m is planned for the development of a mixed use
residential, office and educational project in following phases:
Site B1 (symbol 2MW(ZP))
Phase Type of accommodation PUM (sq m) or GLA (sq m) or amount
of car park spaces
B.1.1a Apartments 11,198 sq m
B.1.1a Car Park 243
B.1.1b Apartments 12,503 sq m
B.1.1b Car Park 271
B.1.2c Apartments 10,303 sq m
B.1.2c Car Park 224
B.1.2d Apartments 10,256 sq m
B.1.2d Car Park 223
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client

Site B2 (symbol 4MW(ZP))


Phase Type of accommodation PUM (sq m) or GLA (sq m) or amount
of car park spaces
B.2.1 Apartments 11,960 sq m
B.2.1 Car Park 260
B.2.2 Apartments 11,960 sq m
B.2.2 Car Park 260
B.2.3 Apartments 11,960 sq m
B.2.3 Car Park 260
B.2.4 Apartments 11,960 sq m
B.2.4 Car Park 260
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client

Site C1,2,3 (symbol 3MW(U))


Phase Type of accommodation PUM (sq m) or GLA (sq m) or amount
of car park spaces
C.1 Apartments 7,360 sq m
C.1 Car Park 160
C.2 Apartments 7,360 sq m
C.2 Car Park 160
C.3 Apartments 7,360 sq m
C.3 Car Park 160
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client

Site Commercial 1,2,3,4,5 (symbol 6UH/U(ZP), 7UH/U)


Phase Type of accommodation PUM (sq m) or GLA (sq m) or amount
of car park spaces
Com-1 Office 12,000 sq m
Com-1 Car park 344
Com-2 Office 12,000 sq m
Com-2 Car park 344
Com-3 Office 12,000 sq m
Com-3 Car park 344
Com-4 Office 12,000 sq m
Phase Type of accommodation PUM (sq m) or GLA (sq m) or amount
of car park spaces
Com-4 Car park 344
Com-5 Office 12,000 sq m
Com-5 Car park 344
Source: Area breakdown provided by the
Client

Site UO (symbol 5UO) – there is no architectural concept with regard to the


development of this part of the site.
The planned residential complex will offer 114,180 sq m of apartments. The five
planned office buildings will accommodate 60,000 sq m as specified in the tables
above.
The existing two residential phases A1 and A2 are located in the north-west part of
the site, adjacent to the Sarmacka St. The completed phases accommodate
275 apartments, including valued 3 apartments, 3 penthouses and 11 garages.
We have not been provided with details relating to the standard of the planned
apartments and office buildings however we have assumed the residential phases will be
of a similar standard to that typical for this part of Wilanow District. For the office part
we have assumed modern high quality office accommodation.
Photographs of the property are attached in Appendix B.

Services and Amenities


The site has access to the following services:
 Electricity;
 Gas
 Water supply;
 Central heating;
 Sewerage and drainage.

Accommodation
Areas
Due to the property currently being undeveloped we have relied on the schedule of floor
areas provided to us by the Client, as described in the “Project Description” section
above.
With regard to the existing penthouses, apartments and garages we have also based our
valuation on the information provided by the Client as presented below:
Schedule of areas – apartments
Building Number Floor Area (sq m) Terrace area (sq m)
A1 Penthouse 95 (D) 4 133.83 69,13
A1 Penthouse 96 (D) 5 126.17 71,73
A1 Penthouse 120 (E) 5 123.27 74,58
A2 Apartment 45 (C) 2 98.75 23,19
A2 Apartment 51 (C) 3 98.04 23,13
A2 Apartment 57 (C) 4 97.59 23,31
Total 677.65
Source: Geodesy Measurement provided by the Client

Also the following 11 garages are subject to the valuation:

Schedule of garages
Building Garage number
A1 145
A1 158
A1 182
A1 201
A1 183
A1 202
A1 94
A2 1
A2 23
A2 54
A2 74

Fit-out residential (existing buildings)


The high quality fit-out of the residential buildings is as follows:
 stone facade (granite, marble, travertine), finishing details in glass and wood;
 height of the apartments of 3 m;
 safety systems including monitoring and intercom system;
 additional infrastructure to improve comfort (air-conditioning)
 plastered brick internal/division walls and wooden windows.

Fit-out office
The planned high quality fit-out of the building and office areas is assumed as follows:
 Raised floors to a height of 15 cm above the flooring slabs in the
tenants’ areas, finished with carpeted flooring;
 Floors in common spaces (circulation routes, entrance lobbies and lift
lobbies)
finished with stone flags and ‘gres’ tiles;
 Suspended plasterboard ceilings or modular suspended ceilings in
tenants’ areas and common spaces;
 The ceilings and staircase walls will be finished with a mineral plaster
coating and will be painted;
 Walls in the common spaces will be wooden, stone or large format ‘gres’
tiles;
 Partition walls – plasterboard walls on a steel sub-frame with mineral wool
insulation.

State of Repair
CBRE has not undertaken a structural survey, nor tested the services. We have not been
supplied with any survey report. We have undertaken only a limited state of repair
inspection for valuation purposes.
According to our limited inspection for valuation purposes the two existing buildings
completed in 2008 and 2009 are in a very good condition. No major repairs are
required or planned.

Environmental Considerations
We have not been instructed to undertake any investigations in relation to the presence
or potential presence of contamination in land or buildings or the potential presence of
other environmental risk factors and to furthermore to assume that if investigations were
made to an appropriate extent then nothing would be discovered sufficient to affect
value. We have not carried out any investigation into past uses, either of the property or
of any adjacent lands, to establish whether there is any potential for contamination from
such uses or sites, or other environmental risk factors and have therefore assumed
that none exists.

Property Tax and RPU fee


Rating
Property Tax Rate Annual fee (PLN)
Property Tax Development Land (0.88 PLN/sq m) 157,276
(178,723 sq m)

Total 157,276

Source: Property Tax Declaration 2013

We have been informed by the Client that:


 Right of the Perpetual Usufruct Fee for 2013 was calculated at the level of
app. 4.5 million PLN
 the debt concerning the Right of Perpetual Usufruct Fee to Agencja
Nieruchomosci Rolnych is currently at the level of app. 16.7 million PLN, including
principal fee and the penalty interest.
PROPERTY REPORT 30
30

Town Planning
There is a valid Master Plan for the area where the subject property is located, issued on
January 18, 2001 (the resolution no. 405 approved by Warszawa-Wilanow Commune
Council). According to this Plan, the site is coded as 19UM and is designated for a
services function with accompanying residential.
Based on the Plan, a development has to meet the following basic requirements:
 Biological active area: minimum 30% of undeveloped
site area;
 Built-up area: 70% of a
site area;
 Maximum height of buildings: 4 floors above ground, maximum
16 m with admissible dominant of 5 m;
 Building density
ratio: 1.1 ;
 Roof slope:
30o to 45o.
Each area of land designated for the development process should be checked for
potentially difficult soil and water conditions, especially in the region of the Warsaw
Escarpment.
Part of the plot is subject to the Heritage Supervisory protection and requires
archaeological research.
According to our verbal enquiry the new Master Plan for the area where the subject
property is located was issued by the city council on 11th July 2013. According to the
provisions of the new Master Plan the site is coded as: MW(U) – multi-family residential
with services on the ground floor, MW(ZP) – multi-family residential with green areas,
UH/U – retail and services, ZP (green areas) and UO – educational services.
Based on the new Plan, a development has to meet the following basic requirements:
 Biological active area: minimum 10% (UO), 30% (MW/U, UH/U), 40%
(MW/ZP), of undeveloped site area;
 Built-up area: 70% (MW(U), UO), 65% (UH/U) 60%(MW(ZP), of a
site area;
 Maximum height of buildings: 5 floors above ground, maximum 18
m (MW(U), UH/U); 3 floors above ground, maximum 12 m (UO);
 Building density ratio: 1.3 (UO), 1.8 (MW(U),
MW(ZP), UH/U);
 Roof slope:
25o to 45o.
We have been provided by the Client with a copy of the Occupancy Permit
no. AM-BK/7353/956/07-08/WR dated 29th April 2008 for the multi-family residential
development located on part of the land B1.
We have been provided by the Client with a copy of the Occupancy Permit
no. IV-OT/7/U/2009, PINB/IVOT/AJ/7357/9895/08 for the multi-family residential
PROPERTY REPORT 31
31 st
building with underground car park , issued by the Building Supervisory in Warsaw on 1
January 2009.
Having regard to the above information, we are not aware of any issues which would
adversely impact upon the value of the property.
LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS
Tenure
Our tenure information has been based upon the following electronic access to the Real
Estate Registers Nos. WA2M/000196355/4, WA2M/00474976/6,
WA2M/000496681/1 (undeveloped land) and WA2M/00474968/7,
WA2M/000474974/2 (3 penthouses, 3 apartments and 11 garages) on 15th July
2013.
Separate Real Estate Registers for the valued apartments and penthouses have not been
created yet.
Below we present a summary of the Real Estate Registers.

Real Estate Register No. WA2M/000196355/4

Chapter I-O Warsaw, Wilanów District, Przyczolkowa, Sarmacka


Sts. Undeveloped land comprising plots: 2/66,
(Property Description) 2/77, 2/67, the total area of 9,109 sq m.

Chapter I-Sp (Rights) Perpetual usufruct right to the land till 27th September 2089.

Owner The State Treasury holds a freehold to the land.

Chapter II (Ownership)
Perpetual usufruct Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. in Warsaw has
right holder the perpetual usufruct right.

Chapter III
Easements in the form of provisions of two preliminary purchase
(Burdens and Limitations) agreement s for the benefit of a private individual Maciej
Łukasz Targowski and legal entity Senica Anstalt, both dated
2007;

Land easement in the form of a free of charge establishment of


ownership of garage as well as a transmission right for the benefit
of RWE Stoen.

Joint Real Estate Mortgage up to the amount of


Chapter IV (Mortgages) PLN 367,027,988.70 securing the bank loan in favour of
Kredyt Bank S.A.
Real Estate Register No. WA2M/00474976/6

Chapter I-O Warsaw, Wilanów District, Przyczolkowa St.


Developed land comprising plot: 2/80, the total
(Property Description) area of 168,633 sq m.

Chapter I-Sp (Rights) Perpetual usufruct right to the land till 27th September 2089.

Owner The State Treasury holds a freehold to the land.

Chapter II (Ownership)
Perpetual usufruct Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. in Warsaw has
right holder the perpetual usufruct right.

Chapter III
Land easement on the plot no. 2/80 in the form of use right of
(Burdens and Limitations) communication infrastructure on the plot 2/80 providing an access
right to the plots nos. 2/78, 2/79.

Joint Real Estate Mortgage up to the amount of


Chapter IV (Mortgages) PLN 367,027,988.70 securing the bank loan in favour of
Kredyt Bank S.A.
PROPERTY REPORT 33
33

Real Estate Register No. WA2M/00474974/2

Chapter I-O Warsaw, Wilanów District, Sarmacka St.


Developed land comprising plot: 2/79, the total
(Property Description)
area of 4,976 sq m.

Chapter I-Sp (Rights) Right of use of communication infrastructure on the plot 2/80 in
favour of the owner of the plot no. 2/79.

Perpetual usufruct right to the land till 27th September 2089.

Owner The State Treasury holds a freehold to the land.

Chapter II (Ownership)
Perpetual usufruct Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. in Warsaw and
right holder co- holders has the perpetual usufruct right.

Chapter III
Land easement in the form of a free of charge establishment of
(Burdens and Limitations) ownership of a garage as well as transmission right t for the benefit
of RWE Stoen.

Claims relating to the exclusive use of the home gardens for the
benefit of several owners of premises.

Land easement on the plot no. 2/79 in the form of free ride and
passage and a use right for communication infrastructure providing
an access right to the plots no. 2/78, 2/79.

Land easement in the form of free ride, passage and use of a


recreation area on the plot no. 2/79 to the benefit of every perpetual
usufruct right holder to the land and each owners to the building of the
plot no. 2/78

Joint Real Estate Mortgage up to the amount of


Chapter IV (Mortgages) PLN 367,027,988.70 securing the bank loan in favour of
Kredyt Bank S.A.
PROPERTY REPORT 34
34

Real Estate Register No. WA2M/00474968/7

Chapter I-O Warsaw, Wilanów District, Sarmacka St.


Developed land comprising plot: no. 2/78, with a total
(Property Description)
area of 10,223 sq m.

Chapter I-Sp (Rights) Right of use communication infrastructure on the plot no. 2/80 in
favour of the perpetual usufruct holders of the plot no. 2/78

Perpetual usufruct right to the land till 27th September 2089.

Owner The State Treasury holds a freehold to the land.

Chapter II (Ownership)
Perpetual usufruct Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. in Warsaw and
right holder co- holders have the perpetual usufruct
right.
Chapter III
Easements in the form of provisions of two preliminary
(Burdens and Limitations) purchase agreements tfor the benefit of private individuals: Michał
Wrzołek and Maciej Łukasz Targowski, both dated 2007;

Land easement in the form of a free of charge establishment of


ownership of garage as well as transmission right for the benefit of
RWE Stoen.

Land easement on the plot no. 2/78 in the form of a free ride and
passage and use right of communication infrastructure providing
an access right to the plots nos. 2/78, 2/79.

Land easement in the form of free ride, passage and use of recreation
area on the plot no. 2/78 to the benefit of every perpetual usufruct right
holder to the land and each of the owners to the building on the plot
no.
2/79

Joint Real Estate Mortgage up to the amount of


Chapter IV (Mortgages) PLN 367,027,988.70 securing the bank loan in favour of
Kredyt Bank S.A.
PROPERTY REPORT 35
35

Real Estate Register No. WA2M/00496681/1

Chapter I-O Warsaw, Wilanów District, Adama Branickiego


St. Undeveloped land comprising plots: 2/65*),
(Property Description)
with the total area of 981 sq m.

Chapter I-Sp (Rights) No entries.

Owner The State Treasury holds a freehold to the land.

Chapter II (Ownership)
Perpetual usufruct No entries.
right holder

Chapter III
No entries.
(Burdens and Limitations)

Chapter IV (Mortgages) No entries.

NB. * Wilanow One Sp. z o.o. is no longer the owner of the plot no. 2/65 of 981 sq m
however, we have been asked by the Client to take into account the above plot in the
valuation.
MARKET COMMENTARY
Introduction
We set out below an overview of the Polish economy together with a detailed analysis of
the Warsaw residential market. Where possible we provide details of market transactions
comparable to the subject property, completed within the last two years.

Macroeconomic Overview
Poland has a population of 38.5 million inhabitants. Warsaw is the capital city as well
as the most significant political and economic centre of the country. The city is also
an administrative hub of the Mazovian Voivodship, one of 16 voivodships in Poland.
Currently, the major concern for the country’s economy is associated with the recession
in the Eurozone countries fuelled by the budgetary instabilities. However, the extent
of influence of the recession is not predicted to be profound, as the potential slowdown
has already been accounted for by market participants. Furthermore, the recent decision
of the European authorities in introducing a coherent buyout plan of the distressed
countries’ governmental bonds has been generally accepted by economists, who
claim it should give the most problematic economies enough time to introduce
savings programs, aimed at reducing public debt, which is considered as the most
significant problem of the European economy. If the outcomes of the plan match
up to the expectations, the current slowdown might be overcome in the near future.
Nevertheless, one of the biggest threats concerning Polish short-term economic
expansion is the possibility of a second wave of economic instability in the European
Union, which could again increase pessimism throughout the financial markets.
However, since the middle of 2012, the attitudes of the market participants have seemed
to improve.
The recent economic indicators in Poland confirm the general slowdown well observed
across Europe. Although 2011 GDP growth exceeded analysts’ expectations and
amounted to 4.3%, the GDP growth in 2012 decreased to 2.0%, indicating a
deteriorating trend. The deceleration of the Polish economy is affecting most of the
components of GDP growth. After the EURO 2012 championship the level of
construction diminished as a number of public investments had already been completed.
Industrial output and domestic consumption have also been affected by the slowdown.
However, although the PLN has recently appreciated against the EUR Polish goods still
remain strongly competitive in Europe, especially among Western European countries
whose inhabitants who are being put under pressure to limit their spending.
Although signs of a slowdown are evident, Poland remains perceived as one of the most
stable economies in the CEE region. Forecasts for the upcoming years predict a further
slowdown of GDP growth, which however, should remain positive and amount to 1.3%.
GDP Growth in Poland 2003-2013
7%

6%
5%
4%

3%
2%
1%

0%
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2013*
2010

2011

2012
Source: Central Statistical Office; *Oxford Economics
forecasts

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which registered a slight increase over the whole of
2011 did however decrease in 2012. In April 2013, y-o-y CPI amounted to 0.8% which
represented a significant 3.2 % point decrease in comparison with April 2012. Owing to
the constant volatility of the CPI index and signs of rebound in the global economy, the
Polish monetary authorities signalled a new monetary tightening campaign at the
beginning of 2011. After a number of increases in 2011 and one in 2012, the base
interest rate reached 4.75% at the beginning of May 2012. Although the level of
inflation remained initially above the National Bank of Poland target of 2.5% +/-
1%, the Monetary Policy Council started to loosen its policy and cut the level of interest
rates. The slowdown of GDP growth together with a decrease of CPI
determined a continuation in the easing policy that started in November and December
2012. After six decreases in 2013 the base interest rate now stands at 2.50%.

Interest Rate and Inflation (%)


Reference Interest Rate Inflation
12

10

0
2013F
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: NBP; F – PMR and Oxford Economics forecasts


The business conditions in Poland remain very attractive in comparison to
other
European economies. Massive infrastructure investments, partly triggered by the
EURO
2012 event and supported by large EU funds, have improved the image of Poland
as an attractive investment destination and have contributed to the creation of new retail,
office and industrial hubs.
In the next European Financial Perspective Poland will remain a beneficiary of
funds. On 8 February, EU leaders agreed on a total budget of EUR 960 billion for
the EU in 2014-2020, significantly less than the EUR 1.025 trillion originally proposed
by the Commission – a difference of at least 6.34%. The two main pillars for the
EU’s development aid are the European Development Fund (EDF) and the Development
Cooperation Instrument (DCI). Both have been slashed significantly as part of the budget
negotiations. The slimmed-down proposal appears to be a victory for British Prime
Minister David Cameron, who has held out for sharp reductions in spending at a
time when most national governments are producing austerity fiscal plans. Poland
negotiated the total amount of EUR 105.8 billion, which is regarded as a success
in general particularly when compared to the period of 2007-2013 (EUR 101.5 billion).
Despite the unstable economic situation on the global markets, Poland is considered to
be one of the top potential destinations for new investment or expansion projects in
Europe.
Foreign Direct Investments in Poland (in billion EUR)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2012F
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: NBP, * - NBP preliminary data, 2012

According to the preliminary data published by NBP, the total inflow of foreign direct
investment (FDI) into Poland reached almost 2.8 billion in 2012 showing a significant
decrease when compared to 2011 (EUR 13.5 billion).
The interest in Poland, showed by foreign investors, attests the good condition
of the Polish economy. According to the PAIiIZ (Polish Information and Foreign
Investment Agency), the key motives behind the decision to invest in Poland
include the size and absorptive capacity of the market (with over 38 million people
Poland ranks as the largest country in Central Europe), relatively low labour costs,
good business environment, growing integration into the global economy and the
success of Poland’s privatisation programme.
As at May 2013 the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency was running
more than 157 projects worth almost EUR 3.9 billion. These projects are to generate
nearly 29,800 job positions. The majority of the investment comes from the US (44
projects worth EUR 0.9 billion), Germany (20 projects worth EUR 0.48 billion),
China (12 projects worth EUR 0.24 billion) as well as the United Kingdom (10
projects), Switzerland (9 projects) and Sweden (7 projects). The most popular sectors are
BPO (38 projects, EUR 37 million), automotive (24 projects, EUR 1.34 billion) and
R&D (15 projects). In 2013, the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency
closed 18 projects (EUR 0.48 billion)
In order to attract new investors, the Polish government and local authorities have
implemented a number of programs offering different incentives for newcomers. The
most popular schemes are tax exemptions, support in terms of co-financing of the
adjacent infrastructure and others, including direct funding in Special Economic Zones
(SEZs).
Currently there are 14 SEZs located in different regions and cities. They differ in terms of
size, location, business profile, land development conditions, road and technical and
telecommunications infrastructure. The zones are to operate until 2017, with the
exception of the Katowice SEZ (until 2016) and Euro-Park SEZ in Mielec (until
2015). The zones are mainly focused on supporting manufacturing industry, but some
of them also include a number of office buildings (e.g. in Katowice and Lodz). An
entrepreneur who establishes a business within a SEZ may draw on regional support
in the form of income tax deductions or direct grants. The type and amount of the
support usually depends on the value of the capital expenditure incurred or the
number of new jobs created.
The most prosperous economic sectors connected with new foreign investment in Poland
include: automotive, aviation, biotechnology, BPO, domestic appliances, electronics, IT,
mechanical industry, metal industry, R&D and renewable energy.
The unemployment rate in Poland in March 2013 stood at 14.3% (compared to 13.3%
in March 2012), indicating an increasing trend. The rise of unemployment is caused
by the conservative attitudes of companies, which seem to reflect European uncertainty.
In line with long term forecasts, despite the strong fundamentals of the Polish economy,
the unemployment level may gradually increase till the end of Q2 2013.
PROPERTY REPORT 40
40

Unemployment Rate in Poland (%) and Average Headcount Employment


(‘000) in Poland
Unemployment Employment
21% 16 500

18% 16 000
15 500
15%
15 000
12%
14 500
9%
14 000
6% 13 500
3% 13 000
12 500

2013F

2014F
0%

2011
2010

2012
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
Source: Central Statistical Office; F – Oxford Economics
forecasts

After a rapid growth of average gross salaries in the enterprise sector in 2007-2008, the
growth of wages started decelerating post 2009. Nevertheless, in 2011 it turned out to
be still positive, amounting to 3.2%, and exceeded 4% in 2012.

Average gross monthly salary in the enterprise sector in Poland and


selected voivodships - March 2013 (EUR)

1 200

1 000

800

600

400
Małopolskie (Krakow)

200
Pomorskie (Gdansk)

Lubuskie (Gorzow
Lubelskie (Lublin)
Slaskie (Katowice)

Lodzkie (Lodz)

Podkarpackie
Wielkopolskie

Dolnoslaskie
Mazowieckie

0
Poland

(Rzeszow)
Wlkp.)
(Poznan)

(Wroclaw)
(Warsaw)

Source: Central Statistical Office, 1 EUR = 4.15 PLN (average in 2013)


Microeconomic Overview
Location
The area of Mazowieckie region covers 35,600 sq km and is home to 5.37 million
inhabitants i.e. 14% of the total population in Poland. According to the latest studies,
Warsaw has 1.7 million registered citizens plus the estimated 250,000 of unregistered
persons living within the city followed by another 500,000 travelling to Warsaw on
a daily basis. That adds up to almost 2.5 million inhabitants in total. The city covers
an area of 517 sq km and has a population density of 3,300 people per 1 sq km.
The River Vistula divides the capital into west and east sides, with central Warsaw largely
situated on the west side of the river. The city is divided into 18 districts, 11 of which are
located on the left bank of the Vistula and the remainder on the right.
Commercial developments are located mostly to the west of the river in
Srodmiescie, Wola, Ochota and Mokotow districts. Industrial space accounts for 5% of
the city’s area and is situated mainly in Bialoleka, Targowek, Ursus, Bielany and nearby
the Warsaw Frederic Chopin Airport in Okecie. The green areas in Warsaw cover 38%
of the city’s surface with the biggest share in Rembertów (80%), Wawer (80%) and
Bialoleka (45%).

Infrastructure
Warsaw Frederic Chopin International Airport is located just 10 km away from the city
centre. With over 320 international and domestic flights a day and over 9.5 million
passengers in 2012 it is by far the largest airport in Poland. In 2008 and 2011 the
airport underwent an expansion program. During the first phase of expansion a new
terminal was added. As a result of the second extension, the number of gates was
increased from 15 to 27. Future plans concerning the area of the airport involve the
construction of a multi-use area known as Chopin Airport City. Apart from a park and a
small public plaza, it will comprise 150,000 sq m of usable space and consist of a
business park, conference centre, a shopping mall, hotels and a fitness centre. The
planned budget of the investment is estimated at EUR 2.5 billion.
The main railway station in the city is Warszawa Centralna. As a result of the
UEFA EURO 2012 sport event that was held in June 2012, it has recently been
renovated. The station is the main railway hub connecting Warsaw with the majority
of Polish regional cities and European capitals. In Warsaw, there are also 5 additional
major train stations and a number of smaller stations for suburban lines. Currently the
Polish Railway (PKP) is working on a strategy to develop and refurbish a number of
railways and stations throughout the country in cooperation with private investors.
Warsaw is Poland’s main road, rail and air transportation hub; however it lacks a good
circular road system. Currently, two ring roads as well as the second metro line are
being constructed. Improvement to the existing bridges and development of new ones is
also under way. One of the most important improvements in the near future will include
the completion of the S2 route, being a part of the Warsaw ring road. In 2013 the part
of the route connecting the A2 highway and the Warsaw Airport should be delivered.
The Warsaw metro is one of Europe's newest metro systems and the only one in Poland.
It consists of a single north-south line that links central Warsaw with its
densely
populated northern (Mlociny, Bielany) and southern suburbs (Kabaty). The first section
was opened in 1995, with the final section being completed in October 2008. Around
580,000 passengers are transported during an average working day by the current
metro line.
The construction works of the second line, crossing the city from east to west, were
commenced in September 2010. Its first, central section will consist of 7 stations: Rondo
Daszynskiego, Rondo ONZ, Swietokrzyska, Nowy Swiat, Powisle, Stadion and Dworzec
Wilenski. It will pass under the Vistula River between the Powisle and Stadion
stations. The vast part of the financing for building this section has been secured
from the European Union’s funds. The original plan to finish this section in time for
Euro 2012 appeared to be overoptimistic. Currently, the central part of the
second line is announced for delivery by the end of 2014. The construction works
are being carried out using a modern boring technology which should allow for much
faster construction compared to the first line. The remaining part of the second line,
which will consist of 28 stations in total, will be built later on.
The long-term plans concerning the metro line involve a short third line, which will
eventually connect central Praga with its southern part.
Target Express Road System in Warsaw

Source: CBRE
Education
Warsaw has 78 centres of higher education with circa 295,000 students. It is by far the
largest academic centre in the country. The most important universities in Warsaw
include:
 University of Warsaw (UW), the biggest university in Poland, with
60,000 students;
 Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) educating over 18,000
students;
 Warsaw University of Agriculture (SGGW) (30,000
students);
 Technical University of Warsaw (PW) with 31,000 students; it is one of
the largest universities of its kind in the Eastern Europe.

Economy & Industry


In April 2013 the average gross monthly salary in the private sector in the Mazowieckie
Region was at the level of PLN 4,747 (EUR 1,117) and the unemployment rate oscillated
around 11.5%. Warsaw is the city with one of the highest gross monthly salary levels in
the private sector in Poland (PLN 5,130 in April 2013).
Despite the uncertainty caused by the recent European fiscal turbulence, forecasts show
that the employment level in Warsaw will be constantly growing, particularly in Business,
Financial and other Services, which, to a large extent, generate the demand for modern
office space. The average yearly growth in these sectors between years 2013 and 2020
is estimated at around 1%.
With the highest GDP among Polish cities, Warsaw produces more than 13% of the
national income. The majority of Warsaw citizens are employed in Wholesale and retail
trade (14%), Transport and storage (12%) and Professional, scientific & technical
activities (10%). The city hosts not only many national institutions and government
agencies, but also a large number of domestic and international companies.
Warsaw also features some other industries, including manufacturing, steel, electrical
engineering, and automotive, although there have not been many industrial investments
recently attracted to the city. The major factories operating in the administrative borders
of the city are the Arcelor Steel Mill and FSO.

Major economic indicators in Warsaw


2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015*

Population* (‘000s) 1,715 1,720 1,726 1,732 1,738 1,743


GDP Growth* 3.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.9% 3.4%
Headcount Employment* (‘000) 1,257 1,291 1,279 1,285 1,294 1,301
Office based employment* (‘000) 512 537 542 550 559 566
Unemployment rate 2.8% 3.7% 4.9% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7%
Source: Central Statistical Office, * - Oxford Economics forecasts and estimates, March 2013
Wilanow District
Wilanow is one of the 18 Warsaw districts and is located on the west bank of the Vistula
River. It occupies an area of 36.7 sq km and is home to around 19,600 inhabitants.
The district is famous for the Wilanow Palace, the summer residence of the King Jan III
Sobieski. Interesting landscapes, easily accessible cultural monuments and the great
number of lakes constitute the district’s main qualities. The assets of Wilanow are
its large green areas, the possibilities of recreation in Natolinski Park and in Kabacki
Forest, Marysin which is situated by the eastern edge of the Palace Park and a charming
area by the Vistula River. The district also benefits from the largest number of bicycle trails
in the capital, ca. 8 km.
Wilanow also disposes of significant investment potential. The local preferences for
investments have included inter alia housing, villa residences and apartment complexes
accompanied by commercial and services functions. Construction of the first large retail
project known as Wilanow Shopping Centre of aproximately 60,000 GLA has been
announced by GTC.
The district’s dynamic development both in terms of residential schemes supported by
infrastructure (extension of main exit route: Rzeczypospolitej Ave. and the other main
district artery of Wilanowska Ave.) and commercial investments (eg. Wilanow Office
Park, the above mentioned retail project by GTC) each year attract new inhabitants
seeking a quiet, undisturbed and convenient place to live.

Warsaw Residential Market


General Overview – all segments
The global financial crisis that broke out in mid 2008 had a direct negative effect on the
residential market in Poland.
The increasing number of restrictions on credit due to the growing impact of the financial
turmoil was reflected in the toughened policy of the Banking Supervision Commission
(Komisja Nadzoru Bankowego) resulting in higher equity costs, diminishing credibility of
private individuals and the lower LTV levels offered by banks to customers.
Due to slowing demand, developers had to cut their margins, however, in some projects
it was not enough –many were postponed or converted into office and services functions.
As a result (together with the uncertainty on the labour market), a drop in
apartment sales ensued, with the worst period recorded at the end of 2008 and
beginning of
2009. The fall in sales was simultaneously followed with a decrease in the number
of new completions.
In the last two years there has been a significant decrease in the number of newly
completed apartments for sale or rent. In 2011 the total number of new apartments
amounted to only 9,262 in Warsaw, which is a 22% decrease compared to 2010 and
more than a 50% decrease since 2009. However, in 2012 the number rose to 13,118
units, with a noticeable revival and an increase of 42% when compared to 2011.
Supply of residential apartments in Warsaw: 2000 –2012
Individuals Developers Housing cooperatives
20 000

16 000

12 000

8 000

4 000

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Source: Central Statistical
Office

In 2012, the housing market witnessed an increase in the number of completed


apartments, which was largely as a result of the projects for which construction started
in 2010. The recovery of 2010 was continued in 2011 when an increasing number of
residential projects were started.
The construction of 11,797 residential units was started in 2012, (of which almost 90%
was by developers, for sale or rent). The number of Building Permits issued amounted to
12,714 residential units (these figures representing respectively a 19.9% and
18.8%
decrease when compared to 2011).
The average size of dwelling completed in 2012 amounted approximately 70.1 sq
m and showed a decrease when compared to 2011 by 9.3 sq m. The average size
of apartments for sale of rent amounted to 64.6 sq m (a 3.6 sq m decrease). The
reduction continued the decrease trend observed over the last five years.
In the 2012, the majority of dwellings were built within Bialoleka, Mokotow, Bemowo,
Bielany and Praga Poludnie districts (over 50%). Only 2% of completed dwellings were
located in Srodmiescie district.
Breakdown of new apartments supply in Warsaw by districts in 2012

Bemowo
11%
Others
27%
Bialoleka
14%

Bielany
7%
Zoliborz
5%
Wola Mokotpw
10% Praga 12%
Pld
9%
Srodmiescie Ochota
2% 3%

Source: Central Statistical


Office

For 10 years, developers have held a dominant position in the accommodation


developed for sale or rent. The role of housing coopertatives on the market, mainly due
to changes in the law, has been recently limited.
The vast majority of accommodation is sold in a so called “developers’ standard” that
includes only: installation supply to the premises, windows and exterior doors,
without the so-called "white assembly." In some housing projects, developers are
also offering paid finishing packages that include painted walls, finished floors,
furnishings, kitchen fittings and bathroom equipment.
Most of the new development projects have commercial premises located on the ground
floor of the building designated for sale or rent. These properties are occupied mostly by
grocery stores, pharmacies, beauty salons or bank branches. In the more prestigious
locations tenants or owners of the premises also include restaurants, cafes or designer
clothing stores.

Upper class residential apartments


The analysis of upper class residential apartment projects before 2006 shows that the
average price for the most expensive ones, mainly located in the city centre was at the
level of PLN 10,000. For the most expensive project - Residence Opera House, located
at Saski Park, housing unit prices ranged from 14,000 to 15,000 PLN.
High quality finishing of standard projects includes among others, the following
elements, emphasizing prestige:
 stone facade (granite, marble, travertine), finishing details in glass
and wood;
 advanced safety systems, including front desk, monitoring, video
intercom system;
 additional infrastructure to improve comfort (air-conditioning, further
processed water) and recreation (swimming pool, sauna, spa, exercise room);
 high quality “white assembly” finishing is offered sometimes in several
standards directly by the developer.
Further analysis of the projects reveals some additional aspects related to the
characteristics of this market:
 projects were largely rather small in size with the number of apartments
usually not exceeding 50 (Residences: Opera, Sea Eye, Villa Monaco) with a
maximum of just over 70 (Residence Multico);
 diversified apartment sizes with, in the majority, large premises of more
than 100 sq m, with a complementary range of small apartments of 60 sq m.
The number of smaller apartments was rather limited with those of less than 50 sq m
present only in single projects where (such as Opera Residence, Sea Eye, Mondrian
House) the flats were not very large. Apartments of more than 200 sq m are usually
only common for penthouses on the top floors often provided with large terraces;
 in the years 2006 - 2008, a significant increase in housing prices in all
segments, including luxury, prompted developers to begin more new projects
of a higher standard with asking prices often exceeding PLN 20,000 per sq m.
In addition to small projects from a few to several dozen apartments, new investments of
a much larger scale started to emerge on the market (Atelier Residence or Restaura
Gorskiego). The availability of financing meant that even projects with a low level
of sales had a chance to start and continue. This led to a situation where when
the financial crisis of 2009 began, there were many projects finished or in an
advanced stage of construction with a large number of homes available that could not
find buyers. This difficult situation forced the following changes to the offer of
premium class apartments:
 offer prices, after a year of stagnation witnessed slow, gradual reductions.
Only the most attractive flats were purchased and those that had prices which
were really competitive, often decreased further because of the financial
problems of the developer;
 lowered prices forced developers to abandon the costly add-ons offered
to enhance the prestige of the investments such as : pool, sauna, exercise room;
 reduced offer levels for apartments finished to a "turnkey" standard
were not considered as very popular by clients. Some projects abandoned the offer
of turnkey finishing that had been initially available.
As a result of the changes detailed above the recent characteristics of upper class
projects can be characterized as follows:
 high-quality finish of the building remains as a standard, including stone,
wood and glass finishes, protection and monitoring in selected projects with a
reception in single projects. The turnkey standard is now offered only in individual
projects and it is being replaced by external companies cooperating with the
developer that undertake the finishing works according to individual housing
arrangements in line with the customers’ preference;
 an air-conditioning system or the technical preparation of the building
installation for mounting individual devices within homes is increasingly popular.
Competition for new projects still remains for luxury apartments on the secondary
market, finished to a very high standard and in the most prestigious locations.
Despite the crisis, prices of luxury apartments remain at a relatively high level especially
in the most prestigious locations.

Apartments in high rise buildings


The limited number of tower projects (not only residential but also commercial)
among the many that were presented on the market, have finally been completed. The
reason for this situation being that most of the announced investments were not so
much determined by the needs of buyers (residential), but by a kind of land speculation.
Tower buildings are successfully built in highly urbanized cities in developed countries as
they are a response to the real needs of the market, namely the physical absence of
development sites for the realization of projects with a smaller number of units. In this
context, Warsaw and the other largest regional cities in Poland do not suffer from such
limited availability of land for redevelopment of low and medium-high buildings.
The high cost of construction of such facilities and the very purpose of realization -
maximum utilization of expensive space in the city centre (very high cost of land
purchase), results in apartments in such projects being directed at the wealthiest
inhabitants.
Among the five highest residential/mixed use towers built in Poland, only two of
them: Sea Towers in Gdynia and the Sky Tower in Wroclaw exceed a height of 100 m.
The remaining three, developed in Warsaw, include Lucka City, Cosmopolitan and
Zlota 44 (the last two are currently under construction).

Demand
The situation on the market relating to the financing of apartments has been changing
dynamically during the last few years. At the end of 2009 banks started to loosen their
restrictive mortgage policies (easier access to financing, increasing the LTV ratio to even
100%). The changes were trigged mainly by the high level of savings accumulated
in the banking sector as well as by the stabilization on the global and local markets.
This trend was continued in 2010 but changed by mid 2011 as a result of the worsening
situation on the international financial markets, compounded by banks further risk-
limiting procedures. Due to the increasing bank requirements, by the end of 2011
the offer of mortgage financing for residential properties was severely limited and
available almost only in Polish currency.
The second half of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 also brought changes in the legal
regulations concerning developers’ businesses, the banking sector and borrowers, which
noticeably influenced the availability and methods of property financing. The major
changes included a Developers’ Law (in force since 29th April 2012) and Commission
of Financial Supervision recommendations (in force partially since mid-2011
and partially since mid-2012).
The Developers’ Law limited the possibility of new project development
financing with financial inputs from future purchasers and obliged developers to keep
an escrow
account – to accumulate the future purchasers’ inputs. The law also introduced
the necessity of widening the information policy relating to developers (an
obligation of issuing a prospectus) as well as concluding pre-sale agreements in the form
of Notarial Deeds.
As a result of the state of Polish public finance, a further increase in the VAT rate is
probable. Assuming its steady growth in the next few years it may reach the level of 10%,
which would lead to increased prices and could limit demand on the primary residential
market.
Due to the significant budgetry burdens as of 1st January 2012 the program
“Rodzina na swoim” supporting the purchase of residential apartments by young
families was closed. According to the program the State Treasury financed up to
50% of the mortgage interest for the first 8 years. The total amount of mortgage loans
supported by the program in 2011 and 2012 amounted respectively to 10.2 and 7.9
billion PLN.
Currently there are on-going plans for another program “Mieszkanie dla młodych”,
supporting citizens who are purchasing their first apartment by increasing their cash
deposits for apartment purchases. The program is scheduled to be launched at the
beginning of 2014.

Cumulative Amount of Mortgage Loans: Poland

Cumulative amount (billion PLN) Base interest rate (%)


350
24%
300
20%
250
16%
200

150 12%

100 8%

50 4%

0 0%
V 2013
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2007
1998

1999

2010
2006

2008

2009

2011

2012

Source: Central Statistical Office, National Bank of Poland

 The unstable economic situation on the global financial markets,


caused mainly by the economic problems of major European countries including
Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy or Hungary has had a negative impact on
the perception by investors of the whole Western and Central European region;
this may result in a drop in foreign direct investment in Poland and consequently
may have an impact on the capital outflow from the Polish market. The described
situation would negatively influence the Polish economy as well as the real estate
market including its residential segment.
PROPERTY REPORT 50
50

 Obligatory changes in risk management introduced in the banking


sector with Recommendation S of Financial Supervision, which introduced an
obligation of creditworthiness calculated on the basis of a 25 year credit
period, limit the creditworthiness of potential borrowers.

Prices
Residential apartment prices – Poland
According to a survey of redNet Consulting, at the end of April 2013, the average
transaction price of residential units sold reached a value lower than the average asking
price of apartments available on the market. The largest price differences for apartments
sold and the asking price per apartment offered was recorded in Katowice and Gdansk
(-8.0%); in other Polish cities the negative difference between asking prices of available
and sold apartments shows a declining trend (8% in February, 6% in March and 5% in
April – the average for 7 agglomerations). Only in Lodz have the average asking prices
for sold apartments been higher than those recently offered on the market (1.6%
difference). The largest increase in prices of units sold in April 2013 compared to the
previous month was recorded in Gdansk (3.0%) and was smaller in Wroclaw, Katowice
and Warsaw (between 0.2 -0.5%). Taking into account the seven largest
agglomerations, the average price of sold apartments increased by 0.7% compared to
the previous month.

Average asking prices of sold apartments within the primary market in the
seven largest agglomerations in Poland - April 2013
Asking prices Asking prices - sold apartments
7 314

7 0127 049
7 281
6 1536 048

8 000
5 889

5 745

5 3865 118
5 3095 136
5 145

7 000
5 962
4 680

5 775

6 000 4 6654 896


4 669

4 670

5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0

Source: redNet Consulting, data os of April 2013 r.


The average asking price of an apartment in Warsaw city, in April 2013, was at the level
of 7,591 PLN / sq m and was about 4.2% higher than the gross price of new apartments
sold in a given period (an average of 7,281 PLN / sq m). The average asking price of
sold apartments in the whole Warsaw agglomeration in April 2013 was at the level
of
7,249 PLN / sq m with little difference when compared to March 2013 (7,049 PLN / sq
m).
Below is a graph illustrating the asking prices in Warsaw city and the Warsaw
agglomeration over the last few years.

Average asking prices for apartments on the primary market: Warsaw and
Warsaw Agglomeration – historic data. 9 380
Asking price Asking price - sold apartments
8 189

10 000
9 000
8 934

8 000
7 000
6 000
PLN/sq m

5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
Warsaw XII 2008

Warsaw XII 2009

Warsaw XII 2010

Warsaw XII 2012

Warsaw IV 2013
Warsaw XI 2011

1 000

2008 Agglo. XII


0

Warsaw Agglo. XIIWarsaw

Source: redNet
Consulting

From the above graph it is possible to note the slow downward trend in the asking prices
of apartments offered on the primary market over the last few years.

Residential apartment prices – Wilanow


Below we present a number of transactions of residential apartments and
penthouses in selected projects in Wilanow district concluded within the last two years
that are, in our opinion, most comparable to the subject property. The Wilanow One
project delivers to the market apartments and penthouses of the highest quality in this
part of Wilanow District, therefore in searching for the most comparable apartment
transactions’ we focused on this project. As the market for penthouses is quite narrow
we also searched for other projects which sold large size penthouses with terraces.
Comparable transactions (apartments) - Wilanów One, primary market,
2011-2013
Dat Pr Flo Ap B N
e oj or art a et
ect m l Pri
en c ce
11- A1 1 98. 18 5,
10- , 39 .7 19
11- A1 4 85. 12 6,
10- , 45 .8 86
11- A1 4 85. 12 6,
10- , 73 .6 86
11- A1 1 117 3. 5,
10- , .24 82 19
11- A1 2 117 17 5,
10- , .32 .8 27
11- A1 3 117 3. 5,
10- , .42 73 45
11- A1 1 88. 12 5,
10- , 43 .1 71
11- A1 2 117 13 5,
10- , .77 .8 27
11- A1 3 116 14 5,
10- , .48 .0 45
11- A1 4 116 13 5,
10- , .83 .8 33
11- A1 4 87. 11 6,
10- , 70 .8 24
11- A1 1 97. 5,
10- , 84 19
11- A2 2 76. 9. 6,
10- , 60 21 59
11- A2 1 77. 19 5,
10- , 26 .4 63
11- A2 1 89. 19 5,
10- , 28 .1 63
11- A2 1 120 22 4,
10- , .28 .6 91
11- A2 2 89. 18 5,
10- , 44 .8 89
11- A2 2 119 22 5,
10- , .61 .5 80
11- A2 3 89. 18 6,
10- , 86 .8 33
11- A2 4 89. 18 6,
10- , 88 .8 42
11- A2 1 114 22 5,
10- , .28 .6 19
11- A2 1 56. 9. 6,
10- , 36 72 59
11- A2 1 56. 9. 6,
10- , 75 91 59
11- A2 1 97. 22 5,
10- , 87 .8 71
11- A2 2 57. 6,
10- , 95 06
11- A2 2 90. 11 6,
10- , 68 .0 68
11- A2 3 58. 6,
10- , 01 24
11- A2 3 90. 11 6,
10- , 65 .0 77
11- A2 4 114 22 6,
10- , .20 .5 42
11- A2 4 58. 6,
10- , 09 33
11- A2 4 76. 9. 6,
10- , 64 27 94
Factor Values

Min Price (PLN/sq m) 4 917

Average Price (PLN/sq m) 5 963

Max Price (PLN/sq m) 6 949

Min Price/Average Price 0,825

Max Price/Average Price 1,165

Comparable transactions (penthouses) - Wilanów disctrict, primary market,


2011-2013
Dat Pr Flo Ap B N
e oj or art a e
ect m l t
en c P
15- A 5 83. 79 8
06- 2 45 .7 ,
201 , 8 4
31- A 5 130 86 8
07- 1 .14 .6 ,
201 , 8 3
16- A 5 108 72 8
11- 1 .52 .8 ,
201 , 7 3
18- A 5 141 13 8
10- 1 .54 .4 ,
201 , 6 3
26- A 5 113 80 8
09- 1 .22 .4 ,
201 , 8 5
27- A 5 149 62 8
03- 1 .29 .9 ,
201 , 5 3
18- A 5 129 86 8
04- 1 .78 .9 ,
201 , 6 5
25- Rz 5 100 43 8
07- ecz .10 .6 ,
21- Rz 5 84. 50 8
09- ecz 50 .6 ,
17- Hl 5 111 65 8
01- on .82 .0 ,
16- Sar 5 119 16 8
10- ma .50 3. ,
Source: Notarial Deeds

Fac Val
tor ues
Min 8,3
Pric 33
Ave 8,4
rag 91
Ma 8,6
x 94
Min 0,9
Pric 81
Ma 1,0
x 24
Below we present apartment prices in selected residential projects which are
currently under construction in Wilanow district:

Selected residential projects under construction currently offered on the


primary market in Wilanow - Q2 2013
Proj Add Ne Pa Del
ect ress t rki iver
Dev pri ng y
Aur Sar 6,3 28 12.
(Mill
-
Sró Her 6,0 24 A -
dmi bu 19 ,3 QIV
esci Szra – 90 201
Wil 106, 5,6 12 Q4
anó Bru 74 ,1 201
w zdo – 95 4
Apa 17, 5,9 16 Q1
rta Rze 26 ,2 201
men czyp – 60 4
Sou
rce:

O O
ffi v
Warsaw is divided into two main office markets (the City Centre and Non
Central Warsaw) and into nine submarkets. Such division enables the market to be
analysed more thoroughly.

Warsaw Office Sub-markets

Source: CBRE
The submarkets within the City Centre include:
 Core – Central Business District
(Srodmiescie);
 Fringe of City
Centre;
whereas the Non-Central market is divided into:
 North (N) – Zoliborz and
Bemowo;
 East (E) – Praga and other
eastern districts;
 Lower South (LS) – along
Pulawska St.;
 South East (SE) – Sadyba and
Wilanow;
 South West (SW) – Ochota, Wlochy and Okecie – mostly along
Jerozolimskie and
Zwirki i Wigury streets;
 Upper South (US) – Mokotow district including Sluzewiec Przemyslowy
up to the railway line to Radom;
 West (W)
– Wola.
The development of office hubs in Warsaw rarely depended on tenant’s preferences
in the past. The major factor influencing investors’ decisions regarding the location of
their projects was usually the availability of development sites in easily accessible
locations. The first office hubs were developed in the post-industrial areas and on the
sites of old factories, such as Empark – the very first business park in Warsaw. For
tenants, the most important location factor, apart from the costs and the standard of the
buildings, are the proximity to the City Centre or the Airport as well as the car and
public transport accessibility.
In the long term, infrastructure development is to be considered as the major factor
influencing tenants’ decisions regarding their location preferences. Future roads and
metro lines will influence the choice of occupiers and are predicted to move a vast share
of leasing activity to the city fringes in the long run.
An area that is especially attractive in this regard is the West (W). The zone is located
relatively close to the City Centre and offers a wide availability of post-industrial land for
sale. It is strongly possible that in the longer run this area will become a significant office
hub in Warsaw. Developers have already taken note of that opportunity and are joining
forces in order to promote the area as the new, dynamic and attractive office
destination. Furthermore, Wola should benefit greatly from the completion of the second
metro line, which will significantly improve the public transportation in the district.

Supply and
Pipeline
Since 2000 the number of office buildings and the total office area in Warsaw has been
constantly increasing. In Q1 2013, the total modern office stock increased by over
76,000 sq m in 4 new projects. In total, the modern office stock in Warsaw stands
at over 3.9m sq m located in over 400 modern office buildings. Around 33% of this
space is located in the City Centre.
Circa 63% of the total office space in Q1 2013 was delivered vacant, on a speculative
basis.
Completions of office buildings in Q1 2013

Bu Z D
ildi o
ng
Am n
U K 1
ba o 5
Ko U H 4
nst 8
Ox Y 8
yg W P 9
Pla C P 4
c C B 0
TO 7
TA 6
Source: CBRE

The largest existing standalone office buildings in Warsaw (>30,000 sq m)


B A D O Zo Ar
uil dd eli w ne e
Ro Ro 2 M C 5
nd nd 0 G B 7
W E 1 All C 4
ar mi 9 ia B 9
sa lii 9 nz D ,
Pu Pu 1 P U 4
la la 9 K S 9
ws ws 9 O ,
Ko K 2 H U 4
ns on 0 B S 8
tru str 1 Re ,
P Ja 2 P C 4
Z na 0 Z B 7
M Ta 2 H U 4
ar s 0 eit S 5
yn m 0 m ,
Ag Cz 2 Ag S 4
or er 0 or E 2
W C 2 A C 4
ar hl 0 kr C 0
sa od 0 on ,
Li Z 2 C S 3
po wi 0 A W 8
wy rki 0 Im 2 ,
Int Ar 2 D C 3
er
Ce mi 02 EK C 7
nt 0
M M 2 Hi U 3
ok ar 0 ne S 5
Pa Po 2 Im U 3
rk ste 0 m S 4
H D 2 U U 3
ori o 0 ni S 4
zo m 0 on ,
M Pl 2 Ab C 3
etr ac 0 er C 3
op Pil 0 de ,
M Je 1 Atl C 3
ill ro 9 as C 2
en zo 9 Es ,
Bl Je 2 S S 3
ue ro 0 i W 2
Of zo 0 n ,
fic li 5 s 0
W C 2 W C 3
art h 0 art C 0
Tri D 2 SE U 3
nit o 0 B S 0
y m 0 As ,
N Bo 2 D N 3
ort nif 0 ek 0
Sou
rce:
The majority of the standalone buildings are usually located in the City
Centre and the surrounding area, while the business parks tend to be located in the
fringe of the city or in the post – industrial areas such as Sluzewiec Przemyslowy in
Mokotow (US) or along Lopuszanska St. and Jerozolimskie Ave.

The largest business parks in Warsaw (>30,000 sq m)


Sc Ad O Y Zo E T
he dr wn e ne x o
me es er a i t
s r s a
Em D H 19 U 10 1
pa o e 95 S 7, 2
rk m i - 20 5,
Pol Po UB 20 L 6 2
ecz lec M 10 S 6 1
ki zk & - , 0,
Tri D S 20 U 7 7
nity o E 06 S 1 1
Par m B - , ,
Pla D Alli 20 U 5 6
tini o an 07 S 4 7
um m z - , ,
Wi 1 P 19 S 4 5
sni o 97 W 9 9
ow S l - , ,
Oc Jer Ma 19 S 4 4
hot oz hle 96 W 4 4
a oli r - , ,
Par Po Im 2 U 3 3
k ste mo 0 S 4 4
Ha Za A 20 U 3 3
rm ry z 08 S 0 0
on na o - , ,
Source: CBRE

Currently, the preferred locations for the majority of office occupiers are the
Central zone, the South-West and Upper South parts of Warsaw including Mokotow and
Okecie districts. These particular locations have already encountered a dynamic
development activity. Additionally, there are also many older office buildings located
around the aforementioned locations, which may effectively compete with the new stock,
once refurbished.
Office completions by Warsaw submarkets
2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013

80 000

70 000

60 000

50 000

40 000

30 000

20 000

10 000
0
US SW Core Fringe of SE N LS E W
CC

Source: CBRE /
WRF

The current economic situation has had a strong impact on development activity. The
market is strongly influenced by the banking sector, which introduced more
restrictive and risk aware credit policies in the time of economic slowdown. The
access to financing, which has been strongly limited during the recent years, is
still being restrained, due to the uncertainty caused by the fiscal problems of the
Euro area. A standard practice for the bank is to ask for at least a 5% pre-let for each
instalment of the loan (in total up to even 40%). Moreover, banks expect their own
contribution to be
at the level of at least of 30% of the value of the project.
Warsaw Office Completions
City Centre Non Central
450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
2013F

2014F
2010
2007

2008

2009

2015F
2012
2011

Source: CBRE, F –
forecasts

Only those projects for which construction should start by the end of the H1 2013
should be considered as likely to be delivered by the end of 2014. The relatively
high level of new office space expected for delivery in 2013-2015 corresponds
with the strong level of demand recorded since the market’s recovery registered in 2010.
Currently, there is around 608,000 sq m of modern office space being built in Warsaw
in 38 projects. Most of them are being developed outside the City Centre (circa
468,000 sq m), representing some 76% of total office space under construction.
Only
32% of the currently developed office space has already been pre-leased. In comparison
to other European cities, Warsaw is one of the most active in terms of the amount of
constructed new stock.
As a result of the turmoil on the world’s financial markets, developers have been quite
cautious with regard to their strategic decisions. Currently however, their attitudes seem
to have become more optimistic, fuelled by the strong performance of tenants over the
last two years. Below we present the biggest projects, currently being developed in
Warsaw.

Major office buildings under construction in Warsaw


Bu O Pr D
ildi ff e- v
Wa 1 14 2
rsa 0 0 0
Gd 40 20
ans 9
Mi 4 43 20
ast 3 0
Pla 4 17 20
c 1 0
Th 30 20
e 8
T- 3 27 20
Mo 6 0
Par 3 7 2
k 2 0
Eu 2 11 20
roc 7 0
W 2 22 20
ola 7 0
Ni 10 20
mb 9
Lo 1 12 20
pu 6 0
Atr 1 1 2
iu 5 0
Po 1 15 20
wis 5 0
Ka 10 20
rol 4
Ga 10 20
rd 3
Pla 10 20
c 2
Bo 1 60 20
ler 1
Gr 10 20
een 0
Source: CBRE

At the same time there are a number of planned projects on the Warsaw investment
map, including high towers in the City Centre as well as business parks in a number of
Non-Central locations. The most significant projects (over 30,000 sq m) at the planning
stage, for which delivery is scheduled within the next 3 years, are presented below. The
given year of delivery is based on rough estimations.
PROPERTY REPORT 60
60

Largest planned office schemes in Warsaw – completion scheduled by the


end of 2016 (>30,000 sq m)
P P
Bu A De
l l
ild d vel
a C a
i
20 Ec Ja Ec 5
15 ho na ho 4
N
o
Ho
20 So Z 4
cht
16 uth wi 0
ief
Bu
20 Z Sw 3
sin
15 wi ed 4
ess
20 H P HB 3
15 B os Re 3
Co
20 Co K nc 3
16 nc ol 2
ept
Ap
20 M D 3
ric
16 ok o 2
ot
R
20 W HB 3
o
16 est Re 2
n
20 Eu Je Ca 2
16 roc ro pit 5
Source: CBRE

Wilanow Office Competition


Wilanow constitutes a part of the South East office submarket (Sadyba and Wilanów).
Both the existing and under construction/planned modern office projects in Wilanów (SE)
as well as others located in the Non-Central submarket Lower South (LS) and
partially selected buildings in the south part of the Upper South (US) present the
greatest competition for the office part of the subject project.
Currently, the South-East submarket encompasses 21 completed modern office buildings
comprising a total office area of almost 181,000 sq m. Additionally, 1 project with
a total area of around 8,000 sq m is currently under construction, with a further 6
projects at the planning stage; projects planned and under construction will together
comprise a total area of around 175,000 sq m, out of which 152,300 sq m is
scheduled for delivery between 2014 and 2015.
The existing, under construction and planned office buildings listed below are, in our
opinion, competition for the subject property:

Selected existing modern office buildings in Warsaw South East and


Lower
South submarkets (>5,000 sq m), Q1 2013
Year of Zone Building Location Office Vacancy
delivery Space Rate
(sq m)
2002 SE Agora HQ I & II Czerska 8/10 42,000 0
1997, 11 9
US
UBC
2 I U 0 0 %
19
0 B 0
2 L P P 24 1
0 S o o 0 1
Ye one B L OVa
ar u o f ca
of il c ( nc
e
m
2 LS P P 2 2
0 ol o 1 %
2 LS P P 2 3
0 ol o 1 5
W
2 SE P 2 0
ila
0 l 0
no
1 LS P P 1 1
9 la o 4 5
2 U C W 1 1
0 S at y 4 7
2 SE M W 1 0
0 e i 3
1 SE N M 1 1
9 at i 3 1
2 SE C C 1 0
0 o z 3
2 SE C B 1 0
0 P o 2
Cz
2 SE C 9 0
ern
0 z 0 %
iak
2 LS P P 9 5
0 la o 5 %
2 LS P K 8 7
0 ar l 7 %
2 SE W B 7 0
0 il r 0
2 SE W P 9 1
0 il l 0 3
1 LS U P 7 0
9 rs u 0
2 SE C P 7 0
0 a o 5
1 SE M B 7 6
9 o o 0 %
2 LS J P 6 0
0 u o 2
2 LS P P 5 4
0 ul u 0 9
2 LS Li P 5 9
0 g u 0 %
Sour
ce:
Selected under construction and planned modern office buildings in Warsaw
South East and Lower South submarkets (>5,000 sq m), 2014-2015
Year of Zone Building Location Office Vacancy
delivery Space Rate
(sq m)
Under construction
2014 SE Robyg Business Centre A Rzeczypospolitej Ave. 8,000 100%
Planned
2 S E S 5 n
0 E u o 7 /
2 S E B 5 n
0 E c e 7 /
2 S R P 2 1
0 E o r 7 0
2 L N P 1 n
0 S et o 6 /
2 S PZP
0 E N
Jastrzebskiego ego
2 L 10 n
0 JaOffi 0 /
ce
1 st a
Ye one B L OVa
ar u o c ca
of il c ( nc
S
m
2 SE P P 6 1
0 rz r 0 0
2 SE W P 6 1
0 il l 0 0
Sour
ce:
We present below the details of the existing and planned office projects that offer space
for lease and are in our opinion most comparable to the subject property:

Wilanów Office Park Developed in 2010-2012, B+-class


existing and planned office buildings
located at Plaskowickiej-Bis St. and
Branickiego St. The office park will offer
140,000 sq m of office space in total.
Asking rent: 13-14 PLN/sq m/mth
Service charge: 20 PLN/sq m/mth

Car park: 60-70 EUR/space/mth

Robyg Business Centre A This A class office building,


currently under construction, should be
delivered in
2014 and is situated at Rzeczpospolita
Ave. The building will offer 8,000 sq m
of office space.
Asking rent: 12-14 EUR/sq m/mth
Service charge: 17 PLN/sq m/mth
Car park: 70 EUR/space/mth

Royal Wilanow A class office building, which should be


delivered in 2014. The planned building
currently offers 27,100 sq m of space
available for lease.
Asking rent: 15 EUR/sq m/mth
Service charge: 17 PLN/sq m/mth
Car park: 85 EUR/space/mth
Catalina OC Developed in 2009, this is an A class
office building located at 6 Wyscigowa St.
in a 10-storey building. The building offers
currently around 2,400 sq m available for
lease.
Asking rent: 14.50 EUR/sq m/mth
Service charge: 17.70 PLN/sq m/mth
Car park:45-85 EUR/place /mth

UBC I&II These A class office buildings were


completed in 1999. Developer: Creaco.
The buildings currently offer 1,734 sq m
of space available for lease.
Asking rent: 13.50 EUR/sq m/mth
Service charge: 19.00-20.00
PLN/sq m/mth
Car park: 50-80 EUR/space/mth

Demand level
For years, the demand for modern space in Warsaw has been characterised by stable,
strong growth, fuelled by the strong performance of Poland’s economy. A single year of
slowdown was registered in 2009, caused mainly by external factors associated with the
global financial crisis. However, in 2010 the market returned to its previous growth path.
In the last year, the total office take-up in Warsaw amounted to 608,500 sq m, of which
28% was attributable to the Central locations, while the rest was registered in
Non-
Central locations, mostly in the Mokotow and Jerozolimskie area. The results of
Q1
2013 confirm that the demand for office space in Warsaw remains healthy.
The demand for modern offices throughout 2013 should remain strong. Companies and
investors have become accustomed to operating within uncertain circumstances and are
much better prepared for any foreseen general slowdown than three years ago.
The long term economic forecasts relating to the level of employment in the
Financial and Business sector in Warsaw suggest that companies will need more office
space in order to expand their operations and to create additional working places
for new employees.
As with the previous quarters, the demand in Q1 2013 was triggered mainly by
companies from the manufacturing, business services and the financial sector. In
Q1
2013, the largest deals included the renewal of BNP Paribas (11,000 sq m) in
Trinity Park II, renewal and expansion of Play (9,600 sq m) in Marynarska Business
Park and the pre-lease agreement of Konsalnet (8,200 sq m) in Jana Kazimierza 53/55.
Letting Activity by Sector in 2012 (%)

Manufacturing & Energy

Business Services

Financial Services

Unknown

Computers / Hi-Tech

Public Sector

Consumer Services

Professional Services

Source: CBRE

Warsaw, as the capital of Poland will undoubtedly develop in the future, attracting new
investors. A simple way to estimate the future demand for office space is to analyse
predictions regarding future employment levels, as this has a direct impact on
office take-up. However, it is important to note that many other factors (such as GDP
and FDI growth) also influence the level of demand for office space and all the possible
demand drivers form a very complex structure. Therefore demand forecasts may differ in
different market scenarios. According to the Oxford Economics data the employment
levels in sectors generating demand for office space (services, finance, business
services, and public services) should grow by at least 50,000 till 2017. Assuming
that the average office space required for one employee is around 12 sq m, we can
forecast that the market absorption within the next 5 years should reach at least
120,000 sq m per year. The most intensive increase should be observed in business,
financial and other services. Public administration is forecasted to decrease in terms of
employment, in line with the debt reduction efforts.
The total take-up figure includes expansion of existing space, pre-lets, owner-occupied
space, lease renewals and new transactions. The share of renegotiations amounted to
almost 37% of the total leasing activity in Q1 2013. Around 38% of the take-up volume
was attributable to new deals in existing buildings. The share of pre-let transactions
totalled a significant amount of 19%, thanks to a number of large pre-lease
transactions: the biggest pre-lease was closed by Konsalnet (8,200 sq m) in Jana
Kazimierza 53/55 developed in the West zone by Laris, followed by a deal of Schneider
(7,000 sq m) in Park Rozwoju. The third biggest pre-lease was Alior (6,100 sq m) in
Lopuszanska Business Park II (South West zone). The scheme, which is developed by
Ghelemco is scheduled for delivery at the end of 2013.
Warsaw office take-up in sq m
Warsaw Net Take-up
700 000

600 000

500 000

400 000

300 000

200 000

100 000

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F

Source: CBRE, WRF; F –


forecasts

While in the Western markets built-to-suit agreements in offices are quite common, in
Poland pre-construction transactions are scarce, even if the pre-let take-up share
has been claimed to be high. For many market players the phrase ‘pre-let’ does not
always mean the same, as there are three types of pre-lease agreements in the
markets: Built- to-Suit, Pre-construction and Pre-completion leases. From the
financing point of view, the most important are the first two cases, when developers
manage to secure tenants for the buildings, before bearing the major costs of the
construction. In total, since
2003, only 20% of all pre-let and 4% of lease transactions volume in Warsaw
were
signed prior to the construction. That situation has greatly improved since the beginning
of 2011 with a number of large pre-lease transactions being registered, including
Orange (43,700 sq m), T-Mobile (27,000 sq m) and Frontex (14,600 sq m). As the
historic figures show, many office buildings in Warsaw and in other Polish cities as well,
were delivered empty, on a speculative basis.

Pre-let agreements in Warsaw (sq m)


Pre-Design (Build-to-Suit) Pre-Construction Pre-Completion
300 000

250 000

200 000

150 000

100 000

50 000
Q1 2013

0
2011

2012
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010
Since the beginning of 2009 the market has been dominated by small lease
transactions – the size of average deal oscillates around 1,000 sq m. The largest deals
concluded in 2013 are presented in the table below.

Major office lease transactions in 2013

S
Q Zo B T T
i
ne uil e
z
1 US Tri B11, r
Q
1 US nit
M Pl P 00
9, er
Q ar ay 6 e
yn 0 n
1 W La K 8, p
Q ris 2 l
1 US Pa S 7, p
Q rk 0 l
1 S Lo Al 6, p
Q W pu io 1 l
1 CB W C 5, r
Q D ar M 0 e
1 C W A 4, r
Q C ar 2 e
1 US N E 3, p
Q e P 9 l
1 US Iri D 3, ne
Q s C 6 w
1 US M C 3, ne
Q ok 4 w
1 S Eu R 2, p
Q W ro 7 l
ce 0
1 US IO C 2, r
Q -1 5
1 C Si N ne e
2,
Q C en O
1 C Si W4 1, w r
Q C
US en nH 8 e
1 K 1,
Q on 8 w
str 0 n
1 C Fo S 1, e
Q C cu 8 x
1 C W A 1, r
Q C ar c 7 e
1 LS Li S 1, r
Q gh C 5 e
Source: CBRE, WRF

Vacancy Rates
As a result of low levels of new supply and accelerating demand in past quarters, the
overall Warsaw office vacancy rate has been declining since 2009. In 2011 it hit a
cyclical low at 6.7% in Q4 2011. However, due to the growing amount of speculative
completions, the vacancy rate entered a growth path at the beginning of 2012.
Nevertheless, the increased amount of vacant office space should be gradually absorbed
in the longer run.
The lowest availability ratio at the end of Q1 2013 was recorded in the South-East (5%),
Northern (7%) and City Centre (9%) zones. The highest vacancy rate was registered
in the Lower-South (16%) and Eastern (12%) zones.
At the end of Q1 2013 the vacancy rate in Warsaw amounted to 9.9%, with the level of
9.6% registered in the City Centre and 10% in Non-Central locations.
Warsaw office vacancy rates by submarket
Vacant Space (sq m) Vacancy Rate (%)
25% 120 000

20% 100 000


16%
11% 80 000
15% 12%
9% 11% 9% 60 000
10%
10% 9%
7% 40 000
5%
5% Total Warsaw

City Centre
0% 0

Core
SW
US

SE
LS

N
Source: CBRE / WRF, Q1 2013

In Non-Central locations, the existing buildings offering the most vacant space (over
5,000 sq m) are listed below.

Existing office schemes with a vacancy rate over 5,000 sq m (Q1 2013)
Vth/sq
Bu A Z
a m)
ildi dd o
c
Ko K U 35 15
nst
Ilm on
Ja S
C 10 E16
et
Po na B E
Po LS 8 15
lec
le E
zki
Mi Je C 7 16
lle
Iris ro
Cy C
U 6 14E
C be S E
C C 6 16
h
h C E
m
Co Gr W 6 18
nce
Ox zy
Ju S 6 E
15
yg
Lu trz
Zł W
C 6 E
23
me ot B E
W
M C 5 27
olf
ar C E
Ma
Sie Si C 5 18
nn
No en
Br C
E 5 E
13
wa
Eq ec
Je S 5 E
16
uat
Em ro
Po 5 W
U E
12
par
Pla ste
Po SLS 5 E
11
tan le E
Source: CBRE / WRF , March
2013

Net absorption (understood as the new space leased on the market) in 2012 accounted
for almost 170,000 sq m, i.e. 28% of total take-up. The average level of annual
absorption registered since 2009 is lower than the amount of office space that is
expected for delivery in the next two years. That should translate into increased vacancy
levels in the nearest future.
As most of the companies are applying a conservative strategy towards their future
expansion plans, no significant increases in the level of absorption should be expected in
the near future.

Warsaw office net absorption and average vacancy rates


Net absorption forecast Vacancy Rate (%)
400 000 20%
350 000 18%
300 000 15%
250 000 13%
200 000 10%
150 000 8%
100 000 5%
50 000 3%
0 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

Source: CBRE, F – forecast

Warsaw Market Summary Q1 2013

Zo S Vac V T C
ne ( (sq m) anc a a o
m) Rate
Co 5 5 1 2 4
re 0 5 1 0 0
Cit 7 6 8 2 0
y 8 8 . 7
Ea 1 2 1 1 0
st 7 0 1
Lo 1 2 1 2 0
we 7 8 6
No 1 8 6 4 0
rth 2 4 .
So 1 9 4 1 0
uth 8 1 .
So 6 7 1 1 8
uth 3 2 1 9 4
Up 1 9 9 6 6
per , 9 . 2 3
We 2 2 8 1 0
st 8 5 . 5
Ce 1 1 9 4 4
ntr , 2 . 8 0
No 2 2 9 1 7
n- , 6 . 0 2
Tot 3 3 9 1 7
al , 8 . 5 6
Source: CBRE /
WRF

Rental Evidence and Lease Terms


The worsening attitudes on the global financial markets translated into a significant
decrease of the level of prime headline rents in Warsaw, which reached the cyclical low
in the end of 2009, at the level of EUR 21 – 23/sq m/month. However, 2010 brought a
gradual increase in the rental level, which was carried well into 2011 and 2012.
In the end of Q1 2013 prime headline rents in Warsaw amounted to EUR 26 – 27/sq
m/month in the City Centre and to EUR 15 – 16 in Non-Central locations. Average
headline rents in modern office buildings located within the City Centre range from
EUR 20 to 22/sq m/month, whereas in Non-Central located office buildings rents vary
between EUR 14 and 15/sq m/month. Due to the increasing amount of modern office
space under construction in Warsaw, no rental increases should be expected in the
nearest future.

Office Rental Levels in Warsaw


Monthly per sq m Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Change
City Centre
Headline rents EUR 26 - 27 EUR 26 - 27  0%
Effective Rents EUR 22 - 25 EUR 22 - 25  0%
Non – Central
Headline rents EUR 15 - 16.50 EUR 15 - 16  2%
Effective rents EUR 12 - 13 EUR 12 - 13  0%

Source: CBRE

Developers, in the light of tough competition, offer a number of incentives, particularly in


Non-Central locations. Tenants’ incentives are less common in prime office buildings
within the City Centre, reflecting the smaller discrepancy between headline and effective
rents, which are usually 15-20% lower than the headline rates. As the amount of
speculatively constructed office space in Warsaw remains high, we expect an increased
pressure on the average rental level throughout 2013.

Examples of currently offered rental terms


S A P
Building
e d ar
Zone r d ki

Lu C E P 1 E
me B R L 1 U
Atr C E P 7 E
iu B U L 0 U
Ro C E P 1 E
ma B R L 0 U
Sky C E P 1 E
lig B R L 0 U
W C E P 1 E
olf C R L 0 U
Se C E P 10 E
nat C R L % U
Mo U E P 4 E
kot S R L . R
Ma U E E 3 E
ryn S R R . R
Cat U E P 3 E
ali S R L . R
Eq S E P 6 E
uat W R L R
Lib S E P 6 E
ra W R L R
Bit S E P 5 E
wy W R L . R
Ko U E P 4 E
nst S R L 3 R
Source: CBRE
PROPERTY REPORT 70
70

As the amount of speculative office space that will be delivered to the market in the near
future remains significantly high, the average rental level might decline gradually during
the next 12 months. However, prime rental levels remain relatively high as the availability
of office space in the most desirable locations is still limited. Therefore, the prime rental
level for those office buildings located in the CBD should remain stable throughout
2013.

Warsaw office prime rents

City Centre Non-Central


EUR /sq m /month

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

2013F
2010
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2012

2013Q1
Source: CBRE, F - forecast

The average lease format is as follows:


 Average lease length: 3-5 years;
 Rents are denominated rarely in PLN, mostly in EUR, and paid in PLN;
 Service charges, taking account of all costs of maintaining and insuring the
property, are usually at between EUR 3.00 and EUR 5.50 per sq m and are more
often quoted in PLN;
 Indexation usually incurred on an annual basis, according to Euro-
Zone CPI or inflation rate of the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS);
 Rent free period: 3-9 month’s (depending on the lease length and
covenant strength);
 Rental deposit: 3-6 month’s rent or bank guarantee;
 Rentable space includes usable space occupied by the tenant and
common space (add-on factor) that usually does not exceed 10% of rentable space
and includes an entrance hall, lift lobbies, toilets and kitchens (if such facilities are
situated outside of the company’s office).
Opinion of Market Rent
Having regard to the comparable evidence presented in the market commentary section
above as well as taking into account the location and planned quality of the subject
property we have adopted the following market rental values:
 Office – PLN 60 per sq m
per month
 Car park spaces – PLN 270 per space
per month

Investment Market and Yield Evidence


After a period of a general slowdown in terms of real estate investment and
turbulence on the financial markets, 2011 and 2012 brought a recovery in this
regard. Last year, Poland witnessed strong demand for quality products, driven mainly
by the core funds. Prime quality assets with sustainable and proven locations were of
interest to investors. The activity was focused primarily on Warsaw, where the
majority of the office transactions took place and on the big regional cities where
significant retail transactions were completed. In addition, the share of logistic
investments was above the average due to the portfolio disposals that were completed
last year.
In 2012 investment volume in Central & Eastern Europe was around 35% lower than in
2011 and reached €7.4 billion, despite solid year-end economic results in Poland and
Russia. Notably, these two markets are increasingly driving CEE volumes, although both
of them saw a year-on-year fall in transaction volumes. Total investment activity in
Poland amounted to EUR 2.7 billion in 2012, which is some 0.5% less in comparison to
2011. It is notable that Q4 2012 proved to be the most active quarter for Poland since
2006, with transactions worth over €1.6 billion in total.
Last year, retail and office investment volumes registered a slight decline, while industrial
investment considerably improved. In total, 47 investment transactions were
completed in 2012. Offices are considered to be the most liquid assets in Poland with
16 schemes transacted last year, amounting to 35% of the investment volume. The retail
sector was responsible for 48% of investment share with 17 schemes worth over EUR
1.3 billion sold last year. The industrial stake improved from 5% in 2011 up to 17% in
2012 with
11 transactions amounting together to EUR 460 million.
Poland Investment Volume (EUR million)

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OFFICE RETAIL INDUSTRIAL OTHER

Source: CBRE

Investor demand is relatively strong and focused both on the prime assets as well as the
value-add opportunities. The interest in Polish assets remains viable mostly due to the
political and economic stability of the country, accompanied by the sound performance
of tenants in all sectors of the commercial property market. Moreover, the market
fundamentals and the economic forecasts are relatively positive for Poland, which should
sustain investor demand in the long run. However, due to a general scepticism caused
by the uncertainty over the economic performance of the European Union, the
investment volumes in Poland are being put under a gradual downward pressure,
particularly in the retail sector.
European investors are the most active group of purchasers in Poland. German open-
ended and close-ended funds are considerably important in this regard, being
responsible for 40% of transaction volume in 2012. A significant, 19% share has
also been registered by American investors. A visible trend is the increasing
activity of domestic buyers recording a level of 10% in 2012.

Purchasers’ nationality in Poland, all investment sectors (2012)

Germany
France
USA
UK
Poland
Other
Austria

Source: CBRE
Investment transactions in Poland in 2012-2013
Ye Quze
ar arte (s
2012 Q1
Marszalkows
20 Q P 3 8 1 G
12 1 ri , 9 1
20 Q H 1 6 5 A
12 2 a 8, %
20 Q R 5 6 2GL
12 2 e , 3 L
20 Q T 2 c 7 Eu
12 3 w 7, . ro
20 Q N 5 c 2 IV
12 3 o , a G
20 Q B 7 c3 E
12 3 a , . o
20 Q S 4 n 4 G
12 3 w , 5
20 Q P 4 6 1 A
12 4 la 7, % 3 z
20 Q W 5 c 2 A
12 4 F 0, . 1 lli
20 Q I 3 c 1 D
12 4 B 7, . 4
20 Q M 4 s 1 H
12 4 a 3, u 1 m
20 Q O 1 n 3 n/
12 4 kM , a
20 Q 1 n 7KS
a
13 1 7, P
20 Q z
N 4 7 1 H
13 1 e 4, 8 2
20 Q G 2 6 9 RR
13 1 r 7, 5
20 Q H 1 9 5KS
13 1 o 1, 3 P
20 Q P 1 6 3 A
13 1 la 1, 7 z
20 Q G 8 n 2BP
13 1 rz , S
20 Q T 1 8 2 Pr
13 1 ri 8, 5 a
20 Q B 1 1 1 G
13 1 at 2, 1 ,
20 Q S 2 ( 4 U
13 2 e 5, ,5 ,
20 Q O 4 n n A
13 2 c 0, a
Source: CBRE

Strong investment demand in the few last years has been clearly noticeable and has had
a direct impact on yields. Moreover, it has not been subject to any downward pressure in
Q1 2013. It is estimated that since 2002 prime office yields in Warsaw gradually
declined from 10% to the level of 5.40% - 5.50% in the end of 2007, when the
observed compression stopped. Since 2008 yields began to grow, especially in the office
sector. The global financial crisis resulted in a shortage of money supply and the
increase in interest rates which were the reasons for the yield decompression in all CEE
countries.
In Q1 2013 prime office yields in Warsaw were estimated at circa 6.25% for the best
performing buildings. With the limited evidence of office investment transactions outside
of Warsaw, the prime office yields in regional cities are estimated at around 7.3% for the
best schemes. It is expected that the gap between prime and secondary yields will
increase through to the end of 2013.
Prime schemes in Poland are still considered as very desirable by investors and their
availability remains limited. What is more, some investors have already started indicating
interest for value-added opportunities in prime office locations in order to pro-actively
prepare for the anticipated increasing vacancy.

Prime Office Yields (%)

Prime Yields in Warsaw Prime Yields in Regional Cities

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: CBRE

Aggregate completions of office space are expected to increase sharply in 2013-14,


although they will remain below the pre-recession peak. This will be driven by a
significant upturn in development in a few cities, namely London and Paris in Western
Europe and St Petersburg, Moscow and Warsaw in CEE. Significantly, this will add the
first major wave new speculative office buildings to the market since the downturn,
as some large schemes were started when confidence was on a higher level in 2010-
2011. However, outside the non-core cities development will remain low and
heavily dependent upon pre-lets.
A strong investment demand in Poland is particularly focused on Warsaw locations, yet
investors are said to be more selective due to the development pipeline and anticipated
pressure on rents and vacancy rate increases. It is worth indicating that there are
on- going office transactions, which were committed to in 2012 and are expected
to be closed by the end of 2013. New office opportunities are to be delivered to the
market during the course of 2013, both in Warsaw and the regional cities. In
addition to the strong demand for prime assets, with yields softening in the non-prime
zones and for secondary quality assets, opportunities are increasing in the value-add
segment of the office market.
Alongside France, Germany and the UK, the Polish market is still a preferred destination
for numerous investors. German funds, investors from the USA and France, as well
as local entities, are active here. Even so, 2013 poses other challenges to investors due
to the turbulence in the Eurozone. For instance, average transaction closure periods have
become more protracted, with restricted bank policies in terms of access to credit lines,
revealing the relatively high risk aversion of investors.

Opinion of Valuation Yields


Below we present investment transactions of comparable office buildings in Warsaw
in
2012 – 2013:
 Marynarska Business Park – “A” class office buildings of 43,000 sq m
lettable space located on Marynarska St. Transaction concluded in Q4 2012 by
Heitman (buyer) for the price of approximately 116 million Euros at an initial yield of
below 8.5%.
 LOT HQ – “B+” class office building of 11,000 sq m lettable space
located on 17
Stycznia St. Transaction concluded in Q2 2012 by PZU (buyer) for the price of
approximately 25 million Euros at an initial yield of ca. 8%.
 New City– “A” class office building of 44,000 sq m lettable space
located on Marynarska St. Transaction concluded in Q1 2013 by Hines (buyer) for
the price of approximately 127 million Euros at an initial yield of ca. 7.75%.
Comparable office buildings which are currently for sale in Mokotów and Ursynów
district are being negotiated at the level of between 7.75% and 9%.
Having regard to the comparable evidence presented above and taking into account the
quality of the property, as well as the current situation on the property market, we have
adopted a yield of 7.75% in the calculation of the Market Value.

Land Market
After a significant decrease of land values since late 2008 and a fall in demand,
currently there is a positive influence on the market brought about by decreased
construction costs, increasing investment activity and availability of finance.
Demand is focused on prime sites designated for small and mid size projects,
mainly driven by the high level of equity required , in comparison to previous years,
The key market features that affect land values are as follows:
 location – distance to city centres, presence of green areas and access
to services
(shops, schools, kindergartens);
 car and public transport
access;
 surroundings – quality and character of neighbouring
developments;
 planning situation (if the site benefits from a valid Outline Building
Permit, Master
Plan or Building Permit);
 density of potential development – the larger the building that can be
developed on the site the higher the value;
 size and shape of the site – prices for large sites are usually lower than
for smaller sites;
 access to infrastructure (water, central heating, electricity and
sewerage);
 tenure – sites held on a perpetual usufruct basis are usually cheaper than
these hold on freehold basis due to the fact that annual RPU fees can be substantial
and influence total development costs.
Usually the strongest impact on land values is the location and presence of planning
permits. The factor which has the weakest impact is title to the land (freehold/perpetual
usufruct).
Due to the size of the subject property and lower supply and demand for such sites we
decided to analyse Notarial Deeds of sites located not only in Wilanow District but
generally in Warsaw.
Below we present selected sales transactions concluded between 2011 and 2013
for sites above 10,000 sqm located in Warsaw:

Residential Land Transactions – Warsaw, 2011 – 2013, sites of above


10,000 sq m
Date Location Land size Net Price Descritpion
(sq m.) (PLN/sq m.)

25- B 3 50 P
07- e 8 3 u
201 Ch
m .
lop
06- Be 2 6Pur
05- mo
Po 3  0chas
No
wst
Sla Mas
ski
13- Wil 1 6Pur
03- an
Kol 5 chas
 2Mas
o dev
ter
elo
01- Be 6 6Pur
12- Sz
mo 6  4chas
Site
eli
St. dev
tech
de
nica
mol
 Sha
re
27- Mo 1 6Pur
06- kot 5  9chas
Mas
fam
ter
ily
06- Mo 1 7Pur
06- Jas
kot 1  0chas
Mas
mi resi
ter
den
 Fina
l
29- Wil 4 7Pur
10- Rze
an 0  4chas
M
czp a
os st
15- Mo 6 8Pur
03- Jas
kot 0  0chas
Mas
mi fam
ter
ily
11- Bia 1 8Pur
09- lol 6  0chas
Mas
resi
ter
den
Below we present selected sales transactions concluded between 2011 and 2013 of
sites below 10,000 sq m located in Warsaw, Wilanow District:

Residential Land Transactions – Warsaw, Wilanow District, 2011 – 2013,


sites below 10,000 sq m
Date Location Land size Net Price Descritpion
(sq m.) (PLN/sq m.)

26- W 5 50 Pur
11- i . 8 chas
201 St.
l 1 er:
serv
ices
26- Wil 3 6Pur
05- Prz
an ,  1chas
Not
ycz
St. reg

21- Wil 8 6Pur


04- Br
an .  6chas
Mas
uz and
ter
serv
15- Wi 3 7Pur
03- St.
lan .  8chas
Buil
ding
08- Wi 5 1Pur
01- St.
lan .  , chas
Mas
serv
ter
ices
The most attractive sites are those situated in well recognized residential locations and
benefitting from a valid planning permit (Outline Permit, Building Permit or Master Plan).
Currently land prices, outside the city centre of Warsaw, range from approximately 503
to 1,100 PLN per sq m of site.
We have also analyzed the offers of large areas of investment land designated for
residential and services currently offered on the market. Below we present selected recent
offers of land of above 20,000 sq m available on the market outside the city centre of
Warsaw.

Recent Investment Land Offers


Location Land size Offer Price Net Offer Comments
(sq m.) (PLN) Price
(PLN/sq m)
W 2 2 5 M
i 9 0. 7 a
l . 4 0 st
Clo
 se
Infr
astr
Wil 2 2 7 Mas
an 2 1. 7 and
ter
serv
 Clo
 se
Infr
astr
M 5 5 7 Mas
o 7 1. 3 ter
k . 4 0 Plan
No
Infr
Wil 3 1 2 Mas
an
Po 0 0. 8 ter
Max
wsi
Za imu
ka
St.
Location Land size Offer Price Net Offer Comments
(sq m.) (PLN) Price
(PLN/sq m)
W 2 2 1 M
i 4 4 , a
l . . 0 sdev
elo
 Max
imu
Zo 2 3 1 Site
lib
Ar 8 2 , dev
desi
elo
mi
Kr  App
aj roxi
M 1 17 81 Site
ok
Si 7 2, 0 proj
desi
ect
ek  Mas
serv
ter
ices
 Add
serv
ition
ices
Sou
rce:
For the purpose of the valuation of the site designated for educational purposes (symbol
5UO) we have collected details of transactions for sites of a similar designation. Bearing
in mind that such sites are very rarely the subject of market transactions we searched for
such transactions not only on the Warsaw market but also in other major cities in
Poland. Below we present selected recent transactions of land of above 1,000 sq m
designated for educational services:

Educational Land Transactions – 2011-2013


Dat Lo Lan N Des
e cat d
(sq et crit
(P
m.) LN
201 P 12, 21 Buil
2- o 758 3 din
12- z g
19 n Per
201 P 11, 18 Mas
2- o 790 7 ter
06- z Plan
11 n :
201 P 3,2 86 Outl
2- oz 27 8 ine
06- n Buil
201 P 1,8 73 Mas
2- o 73 8 ter
03- z Plan
201 Wr 21, 36 Site
1- ocl 000 2 bou
11- aw ght
10 , by
VALUATION CONSIDERATIONS
Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723
sq m under Special Assumption (1)
This is Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m under the Special
Assumption that the new Master Plan has been approved.
In calculation of this Market Value we have assumed that the site will be developed as a
whole, i.e. as one mixed use office and residential project, without division into five
separated sub-projects according to the new Master Plan.

Key Valuation Factors


Positive
 Prestigious location close to the Wilanow Palace within a fast developing
residential area consisting of new, low-rise residential buildings;
 Regular shape of the site;
 Proximity of recreation areas such as Natolin Park, Marysin Park and the
Kabacki
Forest;
 New Master Plan under approval procedure.
Negative:
 Located in the suburbs of the city, with a significant distance to the city
centre;
 Average accessibility with respect to public transport (only bus lines serve the
area);
 Subject of perpetual usufruct right;
 Large size of the site (17 ha);
 Mixed use (residential, office and educational project);
 Large sale of the project - with numerous other planned/pipeline
residential estates within the district apartment prices may be kept at a low level.

Marketability and Potential Purchasers


We have had regard to the marketability and attractiveness of the subject property. We
bullet point our main comments and assumptions below:
 The property represents a very large size (17 ha ) site located out of the city
centre of
Warsaw.
 The new Mater Plan designates the site for mixed use office and residential
purposes together with an educational component;
 The site benefits from good marketability and would be attractive
for large commercial or residential developers.
PROPERTY REPORT 80
80

Valuation Methodology
We detail our main methodology and market assumptions relating to the subject
property. We bullet point our main comments and assumptions below:
 We have based the valuation on the following areas and assumed the
following timing and construction costs:

Site B1 (symbol 2MW(ZP))


Ph T P Ti C
as y U m o
e p M
car in
c n
pa o
B. A 11 3 3
1.
B. p
C ,1
2 /3 ,-
1. ar 4 /
B. A 12 1 3
1. p ,5 5 ,
B. C 2 1 -
1.
B. ar
A 107 5
2 3
1. p ,3 7 ,-
B. C 22 2
1. ar 4 7
B. A 10 3 3
1. p ,2 9 ,-
B. C 22 3
1. ar 3 9
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.

Site B2 (symbol 4MW(ZP))


Ph T P Ti C
as y U m o
e p car
M in
c n
pa o
B. A 11 5 3
2.
B. p
C ,9 2 1
5 ,-
2. ar 6 1
B. A 11 6 3
2. p ,9 3 ,
B. C 2 6 -
2. ar 6 3
B. A 11 7 3
2. p ,9 5 ,
B. C 2 7 -
2. ar 6 5
B. A 11 8 3
2. p ,9 7 ,
B. C 2 8 -
2. ar 6 7
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.

Site C1,2,3 (symbol 3MW(U))


Ph T P T C
as y U i o
e p M n
m
s
e i9
C. A 7, 3
1
C. p
C 36
1 9
9 ,-
1 ar 6 9
C. A 7, 1 3
2 p 36 1 ,
C. C 1 1 -
2 ar 6 1
C. A 7, 1 3
3 p 36 2 ,
C. C 1 1 -
3 ar 6 2
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.
Site Commercial 1,2,3,4,5 (symbol 6UH/U(ZP), 7UH/U)
Ph T P T C
as y U i o
e p M n
m
s
e i1
Co Of 12 5
m-
Co fic
Ca ,0
34 2
1 ,-
m- r 4 2
Co Of 12 2 5
m-
Co fic
Ca ,0
34 4
2 ,-
m- rOf 4 4
Co 12 3 5
m- fic ,0 6 ,-
Co Ca 34 3
m- rOf 4 6
Co 12 4 5
m- fic ,0 8 ,-
Co Ca 34 4
m- rOf 4 8
Co 12 6 5
m- fic ,0 0 ,-
Co Ca 34 6
m- r 4 0
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.

Site UO (symbol 5UO) – there is no architect concept with regard to development of this
part of the site.
 The area of the plots designated for roads has been divided between
all 5 phases proportionally according to their share in 178,723 sq m;
 Based on the evidence presented in the Market Commentary section
we have assumed the following Market Rental Values for the office accommodation:
Function Rent (PLN/sq m or space/month)
Office 60
Car park 270
Source: CBRE

 Incentives in the form of rent-free periods of 3 months;


 Equivalent yield of 7.75%, due to the location, quality and scale of
the planned scheme for which Market Value as if completed exceeds PLN 600
million;
 Based on the evidence presented in the Market Commentary section
we have assumed the following sale prices for the residential accommodation:
Function Sale price net (PLN/sq m or space)
Residential 6,000
Car park 20,000
Source: CBRE

 Disposal fees for office buildings: 1.00%;


 Disposal fees for residential: 3.00%;
 Acquisition costs of 1.50%;
 Architect fee: 4% (2.5% when the Building Permit has been already issued);
 Project manager fee: 4%;
 Contingency: 5%;
 Finance costs of 7.50%;
 Developer’s profit on costs of 20%.

Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723


sq m under Special Assumption (2)
This is Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m under the Special
Assumption that the new Master Plan has been approved and that the site has been
geodetically divided into five properties in accordance with the new zoning.
In calculation of this Market Value we have assumed that the site will not be developed
as a whole, i.e. as one mixed use office and residential project, but the site will be
divided into five separated land areas and each of them may be developed separately.
All the assumptions for Market Value under Special Assumption (2) are the same as for
Market Value under Special Assumption (1) except for the preconstruction periods which
are presented below:

Site B1 (symbol 2MW(ZP))


Ph T P T
as y U i
e p M
s m
p
B. A 1 3
1.
B. p
C 1
2 /3
1. ar 4 /
B. A 1 1
1. p 2 5
B. C 2 1
1. ar 7 5
B. A 1 2
1. p 0 7
B. C 2 2
1. ar 2 7
B. A 1 3
1. p 0 9
B. C 2 3
1. ar 2 9
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.

Site B2 (symbol 4MW(ZP))


Ph T P T
as y U i
e p M
s m
p
B. A 1 6
2.
B. p
C 1
2 /6
2. ar 6 /
B. A 1 1
2.
B. p
C 1
2 8
1
2. ar 6 8
B. A 1 3
2. p 1 0
B. C 2 3
2. ar 6 0
B. A 1 4
2. p 1 2
B. C 2 4
2. ar 6 2
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.
Site C1,2,3 (symbol 3MW(U))
Ph T P T
as y U i
e p M
s m
p
C. A 7 6
1
C. p
C ,1 /6
1 ar 6 /1
C. A 7
2 p ,1 8
C. C 1
2 ar 6 8
C. A 7 3
3 p ,1 0
C. C 3
3 ar 6 0
Source: Area breakdown provided by the Client.

Site Commercial 1,2,3,4,5 (symbol 6UH/U(ZP), 7UH/U)


Ph T P T
as y U i
e p sM m
p
Co Of 1 6
m-
Co fic
Ca 2
3 /6
m-
Co rOf 4 /1
1
m-
Co fic
Ca 2
3 8
1
m- r 4 8
Co Of 1 3
m- fic 2 0
Co Ca 3 3
m- r 4 0
Co Of 1 4
m- fic 2 2
Co Ca 3 4
m- r 4 2
Co Of 1 5
m- fic 2 4
Co Ca 3 5
m- r 4 4
Bearing in mind that there is no architectural concept with regard to the development of
the part UO (symbol 5UO) designated for educational purposes we have calculated its
value using the sales comparison method.

Sales Comparison Method - UO (symbol 5UO)


For the purpose of the valuation we have analysed undeveloped sites designated for
educational uses in major cities from all over Poland. We have selected the
following sites sold between 2011 and 2012 which, in our opinion, are the most
comparable to
the subject property:
Date Location Land size Net Price Descritpion
(sq m.) (PLN/sq m.)
2012-12-19 Poznan, 12,758 213 Building Permit for students dormitory,
Morasko kindergarten and canteen.
District
2012-06-11 Poznan, 11,790 187 Master Plan: educational services (UN) and
Naramowice (UO)
District
2011-11-10 Wroclaw, 21,000 362 Site bought by Fundacja Edukacji
Raclawicka St. Miedzynarodowej for development of an
educational complex. Master Plan.
After analysing the comparable land transactions as well as taking into account
attributes of the subject property, in our opinion, the Market Value of the subject site is
PLN 356 per sq m of the site of 14,568 sq m i.e. 5,186,000 PLN. The site of 14,568 sq
m consists of 12,400 sq m plus a share in the road plots.

A table with corrections made to the comparable properties is enclosed in Appendix F.

Market Value of 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and


11 garages
We detail our main methodology and market assumptions relating to the valuation
of the subject 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and 11 garages:
 We have based the valuation of the penthouses and apartments on the
schedule of areas provided by the Client as below:
T M M M
Ar
Bu N F ea e ar ar a
(sq
ildi u l m) rr
(sq ke
(P k
(P r
m) LN L o
Pe
A1 4 13 69 7, 1, 1,
nth
3, ,1 70 0 03
ou
Pe
A1 5 12 71 7, 9 97
nth
6, ,7 70 7 2,
ou
Pe
A1 5 12 74 7, 9 94
nth
3, ,5 70 4 9,
ou
Ap
A2 2 98 23 6, 6 60
art
,7 ,1 10 0 2,
a
Ap
A2 3 98 23 6, 5 59
art
,0 ,1 10 9 8,
a
Ap
A2 4 97 23 6, 5 59
art
,5 ,3 10 9 5,
a
Tot 67 4,
al 7, 74

 We have based the valuation of the garages on the schedule of garages


provided by the Client as below:
G N
Bu e Mar
ildi a t ket
A1 r14 2 20
A1 5 15 0
2 20
A1 8 0
18 2 20
A1 2 0
20 2 20
A1 1 0
18 2 20
A1 3 0
20 2 20
A1 2 0
94 2 20
A2 1 0
2 20
0
A2 23 2 20
0
A2 54 2 20
0
A2 74 2 20
0
Tot 220
al
Sensitivity Analysis
Below we detail our main assumptions with regard to sensitivity analysis:
 Market Value: EUR 156,113,187 (rounded: EUR 156,113,000)
 ERV change: +/- 10.00% (percentage)
 Construction Costs: +/- 10.00% (percentage)
 Yield change: +/- 0.25% (fixed)
 Sale Price: +/- 500 PLN per sq m (fixed)
OPINION OF VALUE
Market Value of undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m
under Special Assumption (1)
Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m under the Special
Assumption that the new Master Plan has been approved as of 30th June 2013 is:
PLN 156,113,000
(ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY SIX MILLION ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN
THOUSAND
PLN)
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Market Value of undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m


under Special Assumption (2)
Market Value of the undeveloped site of 178,723 sq m under the Special
Assumption that the new Master Plan has been approved and that the site has been
geodetically divided into five properties in accordance with the new zoning as of 30th
June 2013 is:
PLN 180,728,000
(ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY MILLION SEVEN HUNDRED AND TWENTY EIGHT
THOUSAND PLN)
including:
 Site B1 (symbol 2MW(ZP)): 43,656,000 PLN
 Site B2 (symbol 4MW(ZP)): 44,099,000 PLN
 Site C1,2,3 (symbol 3MW(U)): 22,685,000 PLN
 Site Commercial 1,2,3,4,5 (symbol 6UH/U(ZP), 7UH/U): 65,102,000 PLN
 Site UO (symbol 5UO): 5,186,000 PLN
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.

Market Value of 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and


11 garages
Market Value of 3 penthouses, 3 apartments and 11 garages as of 30th June 2013 is:
PLN 4,966,000
(FOUR MILLION NINE HUNDRED AND SIXTY SIX THOUSAND PLN)
The above value is net of purchaser’s costs and VAT.
All detailed calculations are presented in the Appendix F.

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