Common Statistical Fallacies and Paradoxes, Stephen Woodcock

AQCI Analysis by Ruxandra Maria Diaconescu

1.CENTRAL QUOTATION. Woodcock’s article is centered around the idea that “Statistics is a useful tool for
understanding the patterns in the world around us. But our intuition often lets us down when it comes to
interpreting those patterns. In this series we look at some of the common mistakes we make and how to avoid
them when thinking about statistics, probability and risk.”1

2. ARGUMENT. The author introduces a series of common fallacies and paradoxes, with examples to prove how
statistical results can easily be altered to communicate the exact opposite of what they should. By exemplifying
Simpson’s paradox, the author shows how “trends that appear within different groups disappear when data for
those groups are combined” - this can result in the overall trend appearing to be the opposite of the trends in
each group. By explaining the Berkson’s paradox, Woodcock proves two independent variables can seem to be
interconnected. He is also arguing against interpreting statistical data while disregarding the base rate for the
obtained results as shown in the ‘base rate fallacy’ example.

3. QUESTION. While the examples provided are undoubtably eloquent, it would have been interesting to
observe how such fallacies and paradoxes are becoming engines of untruthful marketing and how this altered
information the media is feeding the public is shaping customer behaviour and encouraging existing biases.

4. EXPERIENTIAL CONNECTION. I found the article especially relevant at a time when data is communicated
to the public daily amid COVID-19 pandemic – combined with double standards, the media is now encouraging
strong racists behaviours. Even though wild animals consumption is more frequent in countries like South Korea
or Vietnam than in China, the news have fuelled dangerous accusations which hold Chinese nationals
responsible for the spread of the coronavirus due to eating habits - something which fails to consider the whole
story and is rooted in arrogant hypocrisy. If statistics would have been put to use to help stop the spread of
hatred and fake news, the media could have shared that to many Chinese people, consuming wild animals is “a
cultural outlier” with 80% of people in Beijing opposed to wildlife meat markets. It is only fair to note that in the
UK alone, food such as black pudding - a type of blood sausage - and haggis - predominantly made up of
sheep’s heart, liver and lungs - are consumed regularly. 

In my opinion, responses to pandemics are, inherently, political. The West’s desire to shape the world through its
own self-image (based on fallacies, paradoxes and double standards) is slowly but surely falling apart, yet its
superiority complex reigns supreme.

5. TEXTUAL CONNECTION. A very similar article is “Common Statistical Fallacies” by William M. Briggs – what
Briggs achieves is showing how unreliable and inconsistent the media is – “The public is usually informed of
scientific studies by the press, and the press usually discovers its stories by scanning press releases of peer-
reviewed papers. Researchers often write these papers using questionable statistical methods. Enthusiasm
often trumps caution, especially in “hot” fields”2. He compares one TheDailyMail headline “Bad news for
chocoholics: Dark chocolate isn’t so healthy for you after all,” on Jan 24th to their April 24th headline “Eating dark
chocolate is good for your heart.” to prove his point.

6. IMPLICATIONS. The article is inviting unspecialized and specialized public to put all information under careful
scrutiny and never blindly trust one source of information. We are being fed more information than ever with
access to it whenever, wherever and statistical straight thinking is becoming a fundamental instrument to
practice efficient citizenship. This claim does not mean ordinary citizens should perform mathematical
calculations, but merely be able to interpret the results of such calculations with some sophistication. The mere
existence of statistical fallacies imposes a responsibility upon the citizen who would call himself well informed to
learn to distinguish between erroneous and valid statistical arguments. It is especially crucial to do so at a time
of pandemic when panic and fake news spread faster than the virus. When the very Minister of Health of our
country publicly states that all Romanian deaths during the pandemic must be treated as COVID suspicious
deaths, one’s civil duty is to question the upcoming death tolls before allowing the spread of even deeper panic
among Romanian citizens.
1
Woodcock, S., 2017. Common Statistical Fallacies and Paradoxes. Real Clear Science.

2
Briggs, W.M., 2014. Common statistical fallacies. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, 19(2), pp.58-61.