Koch 1

Cooper Koch

Ms. Sobocinski

20.SP.ENG.1201.525 English Composition II

March 29, 2020

Machine Learning: What Does the Future Hold?

Imagine a doctor that could not only diagnose life threatening diseases with near perfect

accuracy in the blink of an eye, but they could do it across the globe, twenty-four hours a day,

seven days a week. Imagine a Farmer’s Almanac, individualized for each acre of every farmer’s

land, that tells them what to plant, where to plant, when to plant it, how to keep it healthy, and

when to harvest. All of these fantastical things are not only possible, they are happening in the

near future. These things are possible thanks to machine learning. The field of machine learning

is vast and it can do so much good in the world. Machine learning can help solve global issues

like disease and famine by accelerating diagnoses, speeding up drug development, and

improving the efficiency of farms. And while some may think that machine learning will rise up

and become hostile towards humanity, this is simply not true.

While machine learning may seem like a new concept, it has, in fact, been around for

quite some time. Machine learning algorithms came to be as early as the 1950s (Foote). The first

use of the term ‘machine learning’ came from IBM’s Arthur Samuel after he created a computer

algorithm capable of playing checkers (Foote). This machine learning algorithm was made up of

code that allowed it to associate values with every possible orientation of pieces, and then make

decisions based on which move resulted in a higher value outcome. This type of algorithm is

now known as the “minimax algorithm”(Foote). This algorithm along with many others made
 Koch 2

Arthur Samuel a pioneer of machine learning. And based on Samuel's research, along with a

model of how neurons interact developed by Donald Hebb, Frank Rosenblatt was able to create

something that was the first of its kind; The Perceptron (Foote). It used digital nodes in specific

patterns meant to represent neurons in a brain, called a “neural [network]” (Foote). It used neural

networks in an attempt to create pattern recognition back in 1957. While it was able to recognize

some patterns, due to technological restraints of the time, it did not perform as well as anticipated

(Foote) But, it was an important step towards facial recognition that is used today.

The next big steps in the world of machine learning were coding strategies known as

multilayers and backpropagation, which were created in the 1960s. These systems allowed

algorithms to fine tune outputs and have greater fidelity in their networks by adding hidden

nodes within the neural network (Foote). It was the early steps like these that allow for machine

learning to be such a versatile tool in today’s world.

Before one can see how machine learning can improve fields like medicine and

agriculture, one must understand how it works. Machine learning is not unlike how humans learn

to walk. Babies start with no knowledge and very little dexterity, but as they make more and

more attempts, or ‘collect more data,’ they find which muscles to use in order to take their first

steps. In a similar way, a computer is given data and after enough data has been provided, it can

‘walk’ or produce the most likely outcome (CrashCourse). Also like humans, computers can

learn in different ways. The three main ways that machine learning algorithms are categorized

are supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning (Simplilearn).

Supervised learning is when data is presented with labels. For example, imagine three coins of

different sizes, like a penny, a dime, and a quarter. Each of these coins has a certain diameter,
 Koch 3

and if the computer was told the name of a coin and its associated diameter, the computer would

associate the given diameters with the names of the coins. Information associated with a label is

known as a “feature” (Simplilearn). Then if given a coin with the diameter of a quarter, it would

label it as such. Unsupervised learning is when the data was presented with different values and

no label (Simplilearn). For example, if the height and weight of fifty chihuahuas and fifty great

danes was recorded and presented to a computer without classification, a computer would plot

such information on a digital graph. Two obviously different clusters of data would appear and if

given the height and weight of a great dane without being told it was a great dane, it would be

able to correctly predict the unknown dog’s breed by association with the given data

(CrashCourse). Reinforcement learning is when positive or negative feedback is given to the

computer based on if it’s prediction was correct or incorrect (Simplilearn). For example, if it was

given a picture of an adult and it was asked to classify the subject in the picture as an adult or a

baby, and it labeled the subject as a baby, the computer would be given negative feedback until it

could find enough defining features of both adults and babies that it could correctly categorize

the random subject it was given (Simplilearn). Now, most would think that a computer isn’t

needed to make these simple connections, which is true. But as the data becomes more

complicated, the processing power of computers is an essential tool, especially since computers

can make these predictions in a fraction of the time it would take for a human to do the same.

And time is of the essence in a field like medical diagnoses.

If machine learning was implemented into the medical field, it would revolutionize

modern medicine. If machine learning could use unsupervised learning and take hundreds of

different values into account, such as imaging, white blood cell count, temperature, symptoms,
 Koch 4

etc. and create clusters relating to illnesses and diseases, diagnoses could occur in milliseconds

as opposed to the weeks it could take with overwhelmed medical staff. That amount of time

could save countless lives. While current trials are far from this theoretical life saver, there have

been some promising studies that have been conducted. These studies focused on a few different

possible applications. Some focused on disease, mainly breast cancer and leukemia, while others

focused on machine learning’s ability to advise emergency room staff on how to diagnose their

patients, as well as aid in recent pandemic developments .

A study was conducted using 699 data sets regarding breast tumors, some benign and

some cancerous. The study defined nine different variables that represented traits of tumors and

used a very complex type of machine learning, best described as supervised learning, to make

predictions (Gharagyozyan). When the algorithm was given 70% of the data and asked to

diagnose the remaining 30%, it was able to do so with an F1 score of .971. An F1 score is the

“harmonic mean of precision and recall” (Gharagyozyan). For reference, an F1 score is between

0 and 1, with 1 being a model with perfect precision and recall, so a model with a .971 F1 score

is a promising step in the right direction.

Similarly, a different research project focused on machine learning’s effectiveness at

diagnosing leukemia. A certain study collected dozens of trials that have used machine learning

for diagnosis, and analyzed the effectiveness of such trials, and some show serious promise. For

example, a study used data from a multiparameter flow cytometry, a tool that allows rapid

“measurement of multiple physical and chemical characteristics of individual cells or particles as

they flow past beams of laser light...”(O’Donnell). When data gathered by this machine from

16,384 cases was given to a computer, it was able to detect abnormal cells with 97% accuracy,
 Koch 5

but only had 74% accuracy when selecting what specific form of lymphoma or leukemia was

present (Haneen). It was not mentioned specifically what form of machine learning was used.

The study went on to state that, while the tests were small in scope and tended to have very small

data sets, “It was not infrequent for [presented models] to achieve high accuracy (commonly

>90%)”(Haneen). If dozens of small scale studies can achieve above ninety percent accuracy,

then just imagine what the future holds. A separate study used machine learning to aid

overworked emergency room staff.

A machine learning algorithm, best described as reinforcement learning, was given 80%

of over half a million sample cases of emergency room visits across five years and based on this

data, it was asked to assess if the remaining 20% as well as new patients required a head CT

scan to reach a diagnosis. The algorithm was able to correctly recommend with about 93%

accuracy (Klang).

Another recent development of machine learning in the medical field is its use in the fight

against COVID-19. One of the possible avenues for machine learning to help in this pandemic is

a complicated category of machine learning known as deep learning. This form of machine

learning can be used to model the RNA structure of the coronavirus and simulate its interaction

with different proteins in order to aid in the search for a vaccine or antiviral that can help cure or

treat COVID-19 (Godfried). This software could also test for the effect of existing antivirals and

their effects to see if any current medicine could help the people currently afflicted.

Another path that machine learning could take is that of precaution and planning of

outbreak control. Deep learning models could be used to better predict the spread of this virus

than what current data is being presented (Godfried). Yet another possibility for machine
 Koch 6

learning in these trying times is to assess the risk of certain patients in order to better plan

treatments. An algorithm could, based on age and general health, determine how at-risk a person

is of being severely affected by the disease if they were to be infected (Godfried). A great way

that machine learning is currently being used is through the ‘Folding@Home’ project. Folding at

home is a project that is using participants’ processing power from their personal devices to run

machine learning algorithms that are generating possible protein structures that would interact

and ‘disarm’ COVID-19 (Folding@Home).

 Koch 7

Shown above is an Ebola protein, once thought “undruggable” until simulations discovered

a point in which drugs can attach. Folding at Home wishes to use such simulations to

combat COVID-19 (Folding@Home).

If more people sign up and donate their computer’s processing power, the faster they can

find the hypothetical ‘needle’ in the infinitely large ‘haystack.’ But, most projects besides those

related to the coronavirus are still in the trial phase. But, if proper amounts of data are presented

and machine learning models improve, it would be revolutionary to the diagnostic and

preventative fields.

Along with diagnostics and vaccine development, machine learning can also help those

with disabilities. A former NFL player named Tim Shaw was diagnosed with ALS soon after his

30th birthday. The degenerative disease attacks neurons that control movement through muscles,

and as the disease continues, daily activities, like speaking, become very difficult (Healed

through A.I…). The degeneration causes speech to become less clear and distorted in many

ways. So, in an effort to combat this symptom and regain communication with Shaw, Google’s

AI division started using machine learning to train voice recognition for those with ALS. In

essence, Shaw, or any affected persons, would speak phrases into a phone or laptop, giving it

data to train the algorithm to ‘translate’ their speech (Healed through A.I…). As well as this, the

project also used recordings of Shaw’s voice before it was affected by ALS, and used an

algorithm to mimic his vocal patterns to ‘give Shaw his voice back’(Healed through A.I…). This

sort of technology could improve communication with anyone who has physical or mental
 Koch 8

afflictions that cause distorted speech. Things like these are great signs of scientific

advancement. Another field in which these scientific advancements are being shown is the

agricultural field.

There is a desperate need for increased food production in the world as populations

increase at a rate such as they are now, and machine learning can help.“Around 9 million people

die of hunger and hunger-related diseases every year” and around 820 million struggle to find an

adequate food supply (Mercy Corps). And beyond that, almost a third of food that is produced

around the world is never consumed (Mercy Corps). But, if food production can be increased

through more efficient farmland and less waste, the world might be better off.

Machine learning, along with digital sensors, can aid farmers in many different ways. A

company named Object Computing has presented a multitude of ways that machine learning

systems can help farmers, specifically in livestock and crop management. Object Computing can

help a farmer recognize mature and immature crops, and assess the approximate yield the farmer

will receive from a given acre (Machine Learning in Agriculture…). While it is not mentioned,

one could assume that the algorithm used is not unlike reinforcement learning, categorizing

images of crops as healthy or otherwise. Another aspect that Object Computing hopes to assist

farmers in is livestock. Using machine learning technology, farmers can breed their livestock

more confidently, as it can track desired traits within the herd and give the mating pair with the

most optimal outcome (Machine Learning in Agriculture…). Another example of the

possibilities of machine learning in agriculture comes from WIRED’s documentary, “Machine

Learning: Living in the Age of AI”. The speaker gives many possibilities that machine learning

can have in agriculture, from using drones to assess multiple aspects of farming, to a machine
 Koch 9

that can grab with precision and harvest at a faster rate than traditional harvesting (Machine

Learning: Living…). While some of these ideas are still in development, there are quite a few

like them that are in the process of being implemented in fields across the globe.

For example, automated irrigation is already adopted in some farms. It uses a variety of

sensors, along with weather patterns, to determine the correct amount of water that is needed to

keep the soil at the correct levels. This tech would not only benefit the crops, it would also cut

down on the waste of resources and man hours (Kharkovyna). As mentioned in a previous

paragraph, it is possible for sensors to analyze fields and crops to determine the best times to

plant and the best course of action regarding weeds, watering and disease control. In fact, a few

farms in India, “harvested 30–40% more than usual” after an algorithm, designed by Microsoft

and ICRISAT, told them when to plant (Kharkovyna). Another use of these sensors is known as

precision farming. Precision farming uses many different sensors to ‘prescribe’ different

solutions for very small portions of crops, as opposed to treating the entire field for the same

issue (Kharkovyna). For example, it can detect infestations of insects in certain sectors of the

field, and recommend pesticides for that sector, instead of overusing harmful chemicals across

the entire field. This would not only decrease waste, but also decrease the chemical footprint on

the surrounding ecosystem (Kharkovyna). Another previously mentioned topic is animal health

and the overseeing of livestock, and it has started being put in place. In China, two companies

have been using machine learning to keep their pigs healthy. Not only do they have sensors to

detect temperature and monitor movement of the livestock, they have also created an algorithm

that can discern a pig ‘cough’ and alert caregivers (Kharkovyna). While the technology is still

relatively new, “such systems [have helped] to reduce mortality among piglets by 3% per
 Koch 10

year”(Kharkovyna). Another possibility that is still under development is genetic optimization in

plants. Machine learning can use algorithms to determine which genes fit which trait, as well as

the probability that a certain pairing will create the desired offspring with the desired traits

(Sciforce). As well as genetics, machine learning can also help farmers know what to expect in

terms of yield, both from fields and livestock (Sciforce). This prediction ahead of time allows

farmers to adjust the parameters related to livestock, such as diet, activity and overall health

(Sciforce). These tools could drastically improve the rates at which food is produced, as well as

increase the quality of the products. Yet some are still skeptical of what machine learning can do,

and if it is ‘safe.’

A common misconception is that artificial intelligence and machine learning are the

same, which is not entirely true. It is true that the two are related, but they are different. Artificial

intelligence is the idea that a computer can learn to make decisions on complicated matters with

little input, whereas machine learning is giving a computer mass amounts of data and asking it to

find patterns and correlations so that when it is faced with an input associated with the data, it

can give a probable output (Difference between machine learning…). Essentially, machine

learning is an avenue that one could take to train an AI, but machine learning itself cannot make

complex decisions like an AI could, only find patterns between inputs and outputs. While it is

true that biases can be produced through data input, sensible scientists would make the necessary

changes to eliminate such bias. And so long as machine learning is trained with proper data,

biases should not be as big of an issue as they are construed to be. Thus, machine learning cannot

take over the world like some seem to think.

 Koch 11

Machine learning still has a very long way to go. In order for it to perform in some of the

more crucial areas, like the medical field, it must be perfected. It must be trained with very large

data sets composed of only reliable data. Until the accessibility of data is improved, small

studies, such as the ones listed above, are all that will be created. But, once this barrier is

crossed, the sky's the limit. In the right conditions, machine learning can help in the fight against

hunger and disease.

 Koch 12

Works Cited

Cannucciari, Christopher, director. ​Machine Learning: Living in the Age of AI | A WIRED Film​.

Machine Learning: Living in the Age of AI | A WIRED Film,​ 2019,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJixNvx9BAc​.

CrashCourse, director. ​Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence: Crash Course Computer

Science #34.​ ​Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence: Crash Course Computer

Science #34,​ 2017, ​www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-EtmaFJieY​.

"Difference between machine learning...". “Difference between Machine Learning and Artificial

Intelligence.” ​GeeksforGeeks​, 24 Apr. 2018,

www.geeksforgeeks.org/difference-between-machine-learning-and-artificial-intelligence/

Folding@Home. “I AM One IN A MILLION.” ​Folding@Home – Fighting Disease with a

WorldWide Distributed SuperComputer.,​ 2018, foldingathome.org/.

Foote, Keith D. “A Brief History of Machine Learning.” ​DATAVERSITY,​ 13 Mar. 2019,

www.dataversity.net/a-brief-history-of-machine-learning/#.

Gharagyozyan, Hayk. “A Practical Application of Machine Learning in Medicine.”

Macadamian,​ 10 Oct. 2019,

www.macadamian.com/learn/a-practical-application-of-machine-learning-in-medicine/​.
 Koch 13

Godfried, Isaac. “Machine Learning Methods to Aid in Coronavirus Response.” ​Medium,​

Towards Data Science, 18 Mar. 2020,

towardsdatascience.com/machine-learning-methods-to-aid-in-coronavirus-response-70df

8bfc7861.

Haneen, Salah T. “Machine Learning Applications in the Diagnosis of Leukemia: Current Trends

and Future Directions.” ​Sinclair College Off-Campus Authentication Form,​ 2019,

onlinelibrary-wiley-com.sinclair.ohionet.org/doi/full/10.1111/ijlh.13089.

"Healed through A.I....), director. ​Healed through A.I. | The Age of A.I.​ ​Youtube ,​ 2019,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5aZjsWM2wo&list=PLjq6DwYksrzz_fsWIpPcf6V7p2R

NAneKc&index=2​.

Kharkovyna, Oleksii. “7 Reasons Why Machine Learning Is a Game Changer for Agriculture.”

Medium,​ Towards Data Science, 4 July 2019,

towardsdatascience.com/7-reasons-why-machine-learning-is-a-game-changer-for-agricult

ure-1753dc56e310.

Klang, Eyal. “Promoting Head CT Exams in the Emergency Department Triage Using a

Machine Learning Model.” ​Sinclair College Off-Campus Authentication Form​, 2020,

link-springer-com.sinclair.ohionet.org/article/10.1007%2Fs00234-019-02293-y.

Mercy Corps. “Quick Facts: What You Need to Know about Global Hunger.” ​Mercy Corps​, 3

Mar. 2020, www.mercycorps.org/blog/quick-facts-global-hunger.

 Koch 14

Object Computing. “Machine Learning in Agriculture.” ​Object Computing, Inc.,​ 2020,

objectcomputing.com/industries/agriculture/machine-learning-in-agriculture.

O'Donnell, Erika, et al. “Multiparameter Flow Cytometry: Advances in High Resolution

Analysis.” ​Immune Network,​ 2013,

pc.immunenetwork.org/Synapse/Data/PDFData/0078IN/in-13-43.pdf.

Sciforce, "Machine Learning in Agriculture...". “Machine Learning in Agriculture: Applications

and Techniques.” ​Medium​, Sciforce, 6 Jan. 2020,

medium.com/sciforce/machine-learning-in-agriculture-applications-and-techniques-6ab5

01f4d1b5.

Simplilearn, director. ​Machine Learning Basics | What Is Machine Learning? | Introduction To

Machine Learning | Simplilearn​. ​Machine Learning Basics | What Is Machine Learning?

| Introduction To Machine Learning | Simplilearn​, 2018,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukzFI9rgwfU.