Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Project Yacht
Presentation to the Board of Directors
Strictly Confidential | February 2, 2008
Executive Summary 3
Yacht Valuation 5
Process Recommendations 18
Appendix 20
Goldman Stanley
Executive Summary
Goldman Stanley 3
Executive Summary
• $31.00 / share values Yacht well above its average price over the past year; offer
price is also significantly higher than per-share prices implied by valuation
• Given Yacht’s competitive position, market dynamics, and capital structure, another
party is unlikely to step forward with a superior offer
• The combination of Monterrey and Yacht would create a strong #2 player in the
search advertising market and would facilitate a more effective online strategy for the
combined entity
• Attractiveness of offer and next steps depend on Yacht’s 3-year plan and
management’s confidence in ability to hit projections
Goldman Stanley 4
Yacht Valuation
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Valuation Summary
• Recent comparable transactions show higher implied per-share prices due to recently
“hot” market and flurry of activity in mid-2007
• Comparable public companies, public company premiums, and discounted cash flow
analysis all show $31/share in the uppermost quartile of the valuation range
• Yacht’s significant equity investments in other entities have been taken into account
in this valuation, but potential value from net operating losses has been excluded
• Valuation and all implied share prices are based on Yacht’s “base case” (in-line with
Wall Street estimates) financial projections
Goldman Stanley 6
Yacht Valuation
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Monterrey Offer
Public Company Comparables
20-Day Premiums:
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
5-9% Growth Rate, 11-15% Discount Rate:
Goldman Stanley 7
Yacht Comparable Public Companies
Diversified Internet Companies With Over $1 Billion TTM Revenue
Maximum $ 174,565 $ 159,287 $ 14,835 $ 19,258 $ 23,583 $ 6,921 $ 10,118 $ 13,567 $ 13.68 $ 21.16 $ 26.93
75th Percentile 69,835 62,435 12,454 17,724 23,222 3,911 4,881 6,126 4.72 6.69 8.53
Median $ 33,444 $ 30,020 $ 9,666 $ 12,943 $ 16,540 $ 2,001 $ 2,271 $ 2,714 $ 1.61 $ 1.76 $ 2.19
25th Percentile 27,575 25,669 7,348 8,210 9,349 1,025 1,278 1,599 1.44 1.64 1.96
Minimum 14,408 13,009 6,373 6,817 7,463 817 890 1,048 1.30 1.61 1.94
Yacht $ 25,473 $ 18,509 $ 5,113 $ 5,801 $ 6,500 $ 1,927 $ 2,045 $ 2,194 $ 0.86 $ 0.86 $ 0.87
Maximum $ 174,565 $ 159,287 13.7 x 9.3 x 6.8 x 27.5 x 21.4 x 16.9 x 50.0 x 39.9 x 30.9 x
75th Percentile 69,835 62,435 6.3 x 4.9 x 3.9 x 24.1 x 17.2 x 13.5 x 42.6 x 33.7 x 27.1 x
Median $ 33,444 $ 30,020 3.0 x 2.7 x 2.4 x 19.5 x 15.2 x 12.1 x 34.7 x 28.8 x 23.1 x
25th Percentile 27,575 25,669 2.0 x 1.8 x 1.6 x 14.5 x 13.3 x 10.9 x 27.1 x 23.4 x 18.7 x
Minimum 14,408 13,009 2.0 x 1.6 x 1.3 x 10.3 x 9.5 x 8.2 x 20.3 x 15.9 x 13.6 x
Yacht $ 25,473 $ 18,509 3.6 x 3.2 x 2.8 x 9.6 x 9.1 x 8.4 x 22.1 x 22.2 x 21.9 x
Goldman Stanley 8
Yacht Precedent Transactions
Internet M&A Deals Worth Over $500MM With US-Based Sellers Since January 2006
Maximum $ 6,356 $ 6,041 $ 713 $ 743 $ 128 $ 154 13.4 x 12.1 x 47.0 x 48.6 x
75th Percentile 2,192 2,119 646 645 87 100 10.9 x 10.2 x 41.0 x 35.4 x
Median $ 850 $ 850 $ 362 $ 297 $ 68 $ 63 4.7 x 5.5 x 31.8 x 23.4 x
25th Percentile 664 667 219 189 32 26 1.9 x 1.9 x 20.5 x 20.2 x
Minimum 641 603 91 70 17 18 1.0 x 1.1 x 7.9 x 7.1 x
Goldman Stanley 9
Yacht Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Yacht - DCF Cash Flow Projections Assumptions:
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Monterrey / Yacht Combination
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Key Assumptions For “Base Case” Merger Model
• Financial Assumptions:
Projected Closing Date: 6/30/2009
50% Cash / 50% Stock Transaction
$31.00 / Share (63% Premium to Current Share Price)
4.4% Foregone Interest Rate on Cash; $32.20 Monterrey Share Price
Purchase Price Allocation & Balance Sheet Assumptions:
• 10% Yacht PP&E Write-Up
• 20% Allocated to Intangibles
• 50% Deferred Revenue Write-Down
• Operational Assumptions:
10% Revenue Synergies (~$500 Million in Monterrey FY 2010E / FY 2011E)
10% Expense Synergies (~$400 Million in Monterrey FY 2010E / FY 2011E)
30% Book Tax Rate Assumed
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Monterrey & Yacht Summary Income Statements
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Seller Income Statement ($MM) - Summary - Yacht - Based on Buyer Fiscal Years Projections Based On
Historical Projected Consensus Wall Street
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008E FY 2009E FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E Estimates & Goldman
Stanley Model
Revenue: $4,836 $5,457 $6,150 $6,859 $7,630 $8,414
Operating Income: $818 $749 $835 $872 $913 $972
Pre-Tax Income: $974 $869 $915 $946 $994 $1,064
Pro-Forma Net Income: $1,147 $1,182 $1,215 $1,241 $1,297 $1,367
Pro-Forma EPS: $0.80 $0.84 $0.86 $0.88 $0.92 $0.97
Goldman Stanley 13
An Acquisition Of Yacht By Monterrey Is Expected To
Be Dilutive To Monterrey’s Pro-Forma EPS
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Combined Income Statement and Transaction Adjustments ($MM)
Adjustments Combined Years Pro-Forma EPS Figures
FY 2009E Debit Credit FY 2009E FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E
Exclude:
Buyer + Seller Revenue: $80,684 $86,623 $91,356
Revenue Synergies: $469 $537 $608 -Amortization Of Intangibles
Revenue: $81,153 $87,160 $91,964
-Stock-Based Compensation
Buyer + Seller Operating Income: $28,959 $30,966 $32,528 -Deferred Revenue Write-Down
Revenue Synergies: $469 $537 $608
Expenses Associated with Revenue Synergies: ($94) ($109) ($125)
Cost Synergies: $334 $367 $400 Projections Based On
Operating Income: $29,668 $31,762 $33,411 Consensus Wall Street
Interest / Investment Income: $2,324 $2,985 $3,720
Estimates & Goldman
Stanley Model
Acquisition Effects:
Foregone Interest on Cash: ($944) ($985) ($1,028)
New Interest Expense: $0 $0 $0
New Amortization Expense: ($1,482) ($1,482) ($1,482)
Even With Generous
Financing Fees Amortization: $0 $0 $0 Synergy Assumptions,
New Depreciation Expense: ($23) ($23) ($23) Transaction Is Still
Deferred Revenue Write-Down: ($218) $0 $0
Slightly Dilutive To
Pre-Tax Income: $29,325 $32,257 $34,597
Monterrey Pro-Forma
Book Taxes: $8,797 $9,677 $10,379 EPS:
Equity & Minority Interest Earnings: $148 $148 $148
Goldman Stanley 14
Sensitivity Tables – Pro-Forma EPS Accretion / Dilution
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Per-Share Purchase Price vs. Cash / Stock Split:
Purchase Consideration - % Cash: Monterrey Needs To
(1.6%) 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% Pay 70%+ In Cash For
$ 35.00 (4.6%) (4.2%) (3.8%) (3.4%) (2.9%) (2.5%) (2.0%) (1.6%) (1.1%) Transaction To Be
(0.8%) Accretive At $31/Share
Per Share Purchase Price
$ 34.00 (3.7%) (3.5%) (3.2%) (3.0%) (2.8%) (2.6%) (2.4%) (2.2%) (1.9%)
$ 33.00 (3.4%) (3.1%) (2.9%) (2.7%) (2.5%) (2.3%) (2.0%) (1.8%) (1.6%) For Transaction To Be
$ 32.00 (3.0%) (2.8%) (2.6%) (2.4%) (2.1%) (1.9%) (1.7%) (1.5%) (1.3%) Accretive At $31/Share
$ 31.00 (2.7%) (2.5%) (2.2%) (2.0%) (1.8%) (1.6%) (1.4%) (1.1%) (0.9%)
$ 30.00 (2.3%) (2.1%) (1.9%) (1.7%) (1.4%) (1.2%) (1.0%) (0.8%) (0.6%)
$ 29.00 (2.0%) (1.8%) (1.6%) (1.3%) (1.1%) (0.9%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.2%)
$ 28.00 (1.7%) (1.5%) (1.3%) (1.0%) (0.8%) (0.6%) (0.4%) (0.1%) 0.1%
$ 27.00 (1.4%) (1.2%) (1.0%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.3%) (0.1%) 0.2% 0.4%
$ 26.00 (1.1%) (0.9%) (0.6%) (0.4%) (0.2%) 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7%
Goldman Stanley 15
Yacht Potential Revenue Synergies
($ in Millions Except Per Unit Data)
Transaction Assumptions - Revenue Synergies ($MM Except Per Search and Per Pageview Data) Even A 10%
Improvement To
Revenue Synergies from Improved Monetization (Seller): Yacht’s Revenue Per
Search And Revenue
Combined Years Per Pageview Would
FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E Yield ~$500MM In
Search Advertising: $1,706 $1,971 $2,236 Synergies
Display Advertising: $2,993 $3,409 $3,848
Goldman Stanley 16
Yacht Potential Cost Synergies
($ in Millions Except Per Unit Data)
Transaction Assumptions - Cost Synergies ($MM Except Per Employee Data)
A 10% Reduction In Force In
Cost Synergies from Reduction in Force (Seller): Yacht’s Sales & Marketing And
General & Administrative
Combined Years Departments Would Result In
FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E $300MM + Of Synergies
# Employees - Sales & Marketing: 5,047 5,615 6,192
# Employees - General & Administrative: 4,249 4,727 5,212
Average Expense Per S&M Employee: $427,763 $432,040 $434,152
Average Expense Per G&A Employee: $202,749 $205,565 $207,389
Cost Synergies from Building Consolidation and Rental Savings (Buyer & Seller):
Synergies Via Operating Lease
Combined Years Consolidation Are Also
FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E
Buyer - Operating Lease Commitments: $202 $174 $150
Possible, But Upside Is More
Seller - Operating Lease Commitments: $117 $99 $85 Limited
Total Operating Lease Commitments: $319 $273 $235
Goldman Stanley 17
Process Recommendations
Goldman Stanley 18
Key Recommendations
• Likelihood of receiving a competitive 100% acquisition offer is low, but more “creative”
transaction scenarios are possible
• Should negotiations with Monterrey fail or if no other parties express interest in Yacht,
other possibilities include selling certain assets or outsourcing operations to other
strategic partners
Goldman Stanley 19
Appendix
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Yacht Revenue & Expense Detail
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
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Yacht Standalone Income Statement – Base Case
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Income Statement ($MM) - Yacht
Historical Projected
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008E FY 2009E FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E
Pro-Forma Reconciliation:
Amortization of Intangibles: $238 $250 $247 $139 $106 $60 $34
Stock-Based Compensation: $425 $572 $630 $711 $795 $882 $960
Pro-Forma Pre-Tax Income: $1,761 $1,672 $1,766 $1,790 $1,853 $1,977 $2,086
Effective Tax Rate: 41.7% 39.7% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Equity & Minority Interest Earnings: $111 $148 $148 $148 $148 $148 $148
Pro-Forma Net Income: $1,138 $1,156 $1,208 $1,222 $1,260 $1,334 $1,400
Pro-Forma EPS: $0.78 $0.82 $0.86 $0.87 $0.90 $0.95 $1.00
Goldman Stanley 22
Yacht Equity Investments – Valuation
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Yacht - GMarket Ownership Valuation Yacht - Alibaba Group Other Assets Valuation
Goldman Stanley 23
Yacht DCF Analysis – WACC Calculation
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions
Risk-Free Rate: 4.31%
Equity Risk Premium: 7.00%
Interest Rate on Debt: 0.00%
Median 1.27
Yacht 1.39
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
WACC 12.96%
Goldman Stanley 24
Monterrey / Yacht Transaction Summary
($ in Millions Except Per Share Data)
TTM TEV / Revenue: $ 5,113 3.6 x TTM TEV / Revenue: 6.9 x 3.0 x 4.7 x
12/31/2008 TEV / Revenue: $ 5,801 3.2 x 12/31/2008 TEV / Revenue: 6.1 x 2.7 x 5.5 x
12/31/2009 TEV / Revenue: $ 6,500 2.8 x 12/31/2009 TEV / Revenue: 5.4 x 2.4 x N/A
TTM TEV / EBITDA: $ 1,927 9.6 x TTM TEV / EBITDA: 18.2 x 19.5 x 31.8 x
12/31/2008 TEV / EBITDA: $ 2,045 9.1 x 12/31/2008 TEV / EBITDA: 17.2 x 15.2 x 23.4 x
12/31/2009 TEV / EBITDA: $ 2,194 8.4 x 12/31/2009 TEV / EBITDA: 16.0 x 12.1 x N/A
TTM Pro-Forma P/E: $ 0.86 22.1 x TTM Pro-Forma P/E: 36.0 x 34.7 x N/A
12/31/2008 Pro-Forma P/E: $ 0.86 22.2 x 12/31/2008 Pro-Forma P/E: 36.1 x 28.8 x N/A
12/31/2009 Pro-Forma P/E: $ 0.87 21.9 x 12/31/2009 Pro-Forma P/E: 35.7 x 23.1 x N/A
Goldman Stanley 25