Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Equity Research
Ares Capital Corporation
ARCC: Adjusting Ests Post-Capital Raise--Reiterate Outperform
Outperform / V /
• Summary: Following very strong Q3 results and the completion of an equity
offering, we are modifying our estimates. We are raising our 2010 net Sector: BDC/RIC
investment income (NII) per share estimate to $1.33 from $1.30 and slightly
lowering our 2011 estimate to $1.51 from $1.54. ARCC’s performance continues Overweight
to impress and the company remains extremely well positioned to deliver
earnings growth in 2011. Accordingly, we are raising our valuation range to $17-
18 from $16-17, which is based on an 8.3-8.8% yield on our 2011 dividend Earnings Estimates Revised Up
estimate of $1.50. While this valuation represents a premium to ARCC’s peer
2009A 2010E 2011E
group, we believe it is deserved particularly given the company’s superior growth EPS Curr. Prior Curr. Prior
outlook and credit performance. Reiterate Outperform rating. Q1 (Mar.) $0.31 $0.28 A NC $0.35 0.37
Q2 (June) 0.33 0.32 A NC 0.36 0.38
• Q3 Results Were Strong. ARCC reported Q3 2010 core NII per share of Q3 (Sep.) 0.34 0.38 A 0.33 0.39 NC
$0.38, which was well above our estimate of $0.33. The primary driver of the Q4 (Dec.) 0.37 0.34 0.36 0.41 NC
beat was significantly higher fee income, which benefited from structuring fees FY $1.35 $1.33 1.30 $1.51 1.54
of $21MM versus our estimate of $6MM. The higher fees reflect ARCC’s strong CY $1.35 $1.33 $1.51
investment pace (see below), which exceeded our expectation for Q3. EPS was FY P/E 12.1x 12.3x 10.8x
$0.67, which benefited from $57MM of net portfolio appreciation. The high level Rev.(MM) $221 $382 $517
of appreciation is further evidence of improving fundamentals among ARCC’s Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters
NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful
portfolio companies. NAV per share was $14.43 at period-end, up from $14.11 V = Volatile, = Company is on the Priority Stock List
last quarter and the company declared a Q4 2010 dividend of $0.35 per share.
• Growth And Credit Are Impressive. ARCC originated $281MM of net
investments in Q3, which included $512MM of gross originations, a quarterly
record. Senior secured loan fund commitments were strong at roughly $200MM. Ticker ARCC
The $231MM of portfolio exits made in Q3 included roughly $100MM of Allied Price (11/19/2010) $16.35
assets. Credit quality continues to be solid, with 5.2% of the combined portfolio
52-Week Range: $11-18
on nonaccrual status at Q3-end, down from 7.6% at Q2 (legacy ARCC nonaccrual
Shares Outstanding: (MM) 204.1
rate was only 0.2% at value). Investments categorized as at risk of loss (grade 1
and 2) only represented 2.6% of the portfolio at Q3-end. Market Cap.: (MM) $3,336.5
S&P 500: 1,199.73
• Balance Sheet Strengthened. On November 16, ARCC raised $180.5MM of Avg. Daily Vol.: 2,621,110
net proceeds from an 11.5MM share equity offering. The selling price was $16.50, Dividend/Yield: $1.40/8.6%
which was 14% above last reported NAV. The company plans to initially use the LT Debt: (MM) $1,524.1
proceeds to retire debt but should allocate the capital into investment
LT Debt/Total Cap.: 35.4%
opportunities over time. ARCC ended Q3 with total debt of $1.5B and a debt-to-
ROE: 11.0%
equity ratio of 0.45x pro forma for the equity offering. On October 21, ARCC
issued $200MM of unsecured notes due 2040 at a rate of 7.75%. The new notes 3-5 Yr. Est. Growth Rate: 8.0%
should provide for maximum operating flexibility given their long duration and CY 2010 Est. P/E-to-Growth: 1.5x
unsecured status. Last Reporting Date: 11/04/2010
Before Open
Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters
Company Description:
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a closed-end, nondiversified investment company that has elected to be
organized as a business development company (BDC) under the Investment Company Act of 1940. ARCC seeks
to generate current income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments made up of first-and
second-lien loans, mezzanine debt, and equity positions. ARCC is an externally managed affiliate of Ares
Management LLC, an independent Los Angeles-based investment management firm.
Pre-Incentive Fee Income 37.78 40.01 41.59 47.93 39.69 65.20 88.86 85.40 89.38 95.39 104.56 113.98 173.48 190.60 330.60 444.30
Inc. Fees #1 (8% ROE Hurdle) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
NII Incentive Fee #1 (100% up to 10.00%) 5.43 5.41 5.81 6.24 7.11 10.76 13.80 14.41 14.86 15.37 15.89 16.43 23.96 22.88 46.08 62.56
NII Incentive Fee #2 (20% over 10.00%) 2.13 2.59 2.51 3.35 0.83 2.28 3.97 2.67 3.02 3.70 5.02 6.36 7.84 10.58 9.75 18.11
Total Incentive Fees on NII 7.55 7.99 8.23 9.57 8.14 14.97 17.81 17.08 17.88 19.08 20.91 22.80 31.80 33.46 55.83 80.66
Total Expenses, as reported 25.79 27.09 27.52 30.90 34.97 71.36 67.07 70.11 72.64 75.44 77.01 79.75 39.64 44.04 65.58 98.77
Net Investment Income before Income Taxes 30.23 32.03 33.36 38.37 31.54 50.23 71.06 68.32 71.50 76.31 83.65 91.18 127.24 133.98 221.14 322.64
Incentive Fee #2 - Net Realized Capital Gains 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Income Tax Expense 0.03 0.08 0.45 0.01 (0.16) 0.69 (0.16) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.58 0.36 0.00
Net Investment Income (NII) 30.20 31.95 32.91 38.35 31.71 49.54 71.22 68.32 71.50 76.31 83.65 91.18 126.99 133.41 220.78 322.64
Net Investment Income Per Share $0.31 $0.33 $0.32 $0.35 $0.25 $0.26 $0.37 $0.34 $0.35 $0.36 $0.39 $0.41 $1.42 $1.31 $1.23 $1.51
Core Net Investment Income Per Share $0.31 $0.33 $0.34 $0.37 $0.28 $0.32 $0.38 $0.34 $0.35 $0.36 $0.39 $0.41 $1.42 $1.35 $1.33 $1.51
Total Dividend/Share - Recurring $0.42 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.37 $0.38 $0.40 $1.68 $1.47 $1.40 $1.50
Dividend Per Share - Special $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Total Dividend/Share $0.42 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.35 $0.37 $0.38 $0.40 $1.68 $1.47 $1.40 $1.50
Shares Outstanding for Dividend 97.2 97.2 109.6 109.9 133.2 192.2 192.6 204.1 204.1 217.1 217.1 230.1
Realized and Unrealized Gains/Losses
Realized Gain on Extinguishment of Debt 26.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.38) (1.58) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.54 (1.96) 0.00
Gain from ALD acquisition 0.00 195.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 195.88 0.00
Net Realized Gains (1.84) (0.74) (1.66) (41.73) (4.88) 12.31 1.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.37 (45.96) 8.65 0.00
Net Unrealized Appreciation/Depreciation (19.87) 3.55 32.03 73.01 49.59 72.81 57.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (272.82) 88.71 179.91 0.00
Total Marks on Portfolio 4.83 2.81 30.37 31.28 44.71 280.61 57.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (266.45) 42.74 188.57 0.00
Net Realized Gains/share (cumulative) (1.84) (2.58) (4.23) (45.96) (49.01) (35.96) (33.08) 8.65 13.54 1.23 0.00 0.00 6.37 (45.96) 8.65 0.00
GAAP Net Income 35.03 34.75 63.28 69.63 76.42 330.15 128.38 68.32 71.50 76.31 83.65 91.18 (139.46) 202.69 603.26 322.64
Reported GAAP EPS $0.36 $0.36 $0.62 $0.64 $0.61 $1.73 $0.67 $0.34 $0.35 $0.36 $0.39 $0.41 ($1.56) $1.99 $2.32 $1.51
Avg. Diluted Shares 97.2 97.2 102.8 109.6 124.5 191.0 192.2 198.3 204.1 210.6 217.1 223.6 89.7 101.7 176.5 213.8
EOP Shares Outstanding 97.2 97.2 109.6 109.9 133.2 192.2 192.6 204.1 204.1 217.1 217.1 230.1 97.2 109.9 204.1 230.1
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
estimates and company data
2
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Ares Capital Corporation EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Required Disclosures
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
11/20/07
12/18/07
1/15/08
2/12/08
3/11/08
4/8/08
5/6/08
6/3/08
7/1/08
7/29/08
8/26/08
9/23/08
11/18/08
12/16/08
1/13/09
3/10/09
4/7/09
5/5/09
6/2/09
6/30/09
7/28/09
8/25/09
9/22/09
12/15/09
1/12/10
2/9/10
3/9/10
4/6/10
5/4/10
6/1/10
6/29/10
7/27/10
9/21/10
10/19/10
11/16/10
10/21/08
2/10/09
10/20/09
11/17/09
8/24/10
Date
Date Publication Price ($) Rating Code Val. Rng. Low Val. Rng. High Close Price ($)
11/20/2007 Shanahan
11/20/2007 NA 1 17.00 18.00 15.00
z 5/8/2008 11.68 1 14.00 15.00 11.68
z 7/16/2008 9.36 1 11.00 12.00 10.39
z 8/7/2008 10.66 1 12.00 13.00 10.66
z 11/7/2008 7.29 1 10.00 11.00 6.91
z 1/15/2009 6.04 1 9.00 10.00 6.04
z 3/2/2009 3.86 1 8.00 9.00 3.86
z 5/8/2009 6.96 1 9.00 10.00 7.46
z 8/25/2009 9.37 1 10.00 11.00 9.38
z 10/23/2009 10.66 1 13.00 14.00 10.69
z 1/6/2010 13.36 1 14.00 15.00 13.16
2/5/2010 Harris
z 2/25/2010 12.94 1 15.00 16.00 12.94
z 4/5/2010 14.92 1 16.00 17.00 15.20
I certify that:
1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers discussed; and
2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
by me in this research report.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of Ares Capital Corporation.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates managed or comanaged a public offering of securities for Ares Capital Corporation
within the past 12 months.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in
the next three months from Ares Capital Corporation.
Ares Capital Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was,
a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided investment banking services to Ares Capital
Corporation.
Ares Capital Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was,
a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided noninvestment banking securities-related services
to Ares Capital Corporation.
An affiliate of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking
3
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Specialty Finance EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
ARCC: Risks to our valuation range include an inability to access the equity and debt markets and weaker credit quality.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability
and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue.
STOCK RATING
1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the
next 12 months. BUY
2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market
over the next 12 months. HOLD
3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12
months. SELL
SECTOR RATING
O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
VOLATILITY RATING
V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the
analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading.
4
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC
Ares Capital Corporation EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Japan – This report is distributed in Japan by Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co., Ltd, a Japanese financial instruments firm
registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau, a subordinate regulatory body of the Ministry of Finance in Japan, to conduct
broking and dealing of type 1 and type 2 financial instruments and agency or intermediary service for entry into investment advisory
or discretionary investment contracts. This report is intended for distribution only to professional customers (Tokutei Toushika) and
is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, ordinary customers (Ippan Toushika).
About Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of
the New York Stock Exchange, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp.
This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments
named or described in this report. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that
provided this report to them, if they desire further information. The information in this report has been obtained or derived from
sources believed by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, to be reliable, but Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, does not represent that this
information is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, at this time, and are subject to change without notice. For the purposes of the U.K. Financial Services
Authority's rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. Each of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, and
Wells Fargo Securities International Limited is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks. Copyright © 2010
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.