ALFA 0.15 ALFA 0.

5
semana dt SES ET SES ET |ET|
1 14 24 10 10
2 9 22 13 13
3 30 20 -10 10
4 22 22 0 0
5 34 22 -12 12
6 12 24 12 34 22 12
7 19 22 3 23 4 3
8 23 21 -2 21 -2 2
9 35 22 -13 22 -13 13
10 27 24 -3 29 2 3
11 29 24 -5 28 -1 5
12 32 25 -7 28 -4 7
13 23.8333333 23 30 90
-14 30
30
30
8

ME -1.09873506 ME 0.586538462
MAD 6.90738234 MAD 3.644230769
MAPE 0.38119921 MAPE 0.208783461
MSE 71.0837293 MSE 53.07331731
ET/DT ET^2 |ET| ET/DT ET^2
0.70238095 97
1.48425926 178
0.32151389 93
0.00902746 0
0.35790628 148
0.97137571 136 22 1.83333333 484
0.15305433 8 4 0.21052632 16
0.06644229 2 2 0.08695652 4
0.37996991 177 13 0.37142857 169
0.12237425 11 1.5 0.05555556 2.25
0.16580997 23 1.25 0.04310345 1.5625
0.22147549 50 3.625 0.11328125 13.140625
4.95558978 924 47.375 2.714185 689.953125
 CORTE Y PENDIENTE PRONOSTICO FT-DT
T DT ST GT FT ET
0 12.82 4.01190476
1 15 16.65 3.9752381 16.83 1.83
2 20 20.5627143 3.96273333 20.63 0.63
3 26 24.6729029 3.99222438 24.53 -1.47
4 30 28.7986145 4.01892184 28.67 -1.33
5 35 33.0357827 4.06257111 32.82 -2.18
6 38 37.1885184 4.08060403 37.10 -0.90
7 40 41.1422102 4.05522158 41.27 1.27
8 43 44.9776886 4.01127295 45.20 2.20
9 48.99
10 53.00
11 57.01

ALFA 0.1
BETA 0.2
 PERIODO 9= S8+TAO=1*G8
PERIODO 10= S8+TAO=2*G8
PERIODO11=S8+TAO=3*G8

PRONOSTICO VS DEMANDA
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Column C Column F