FUTURE TRENDS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY,

FINANCE AND SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Erdas, Berlin 24.12.2010

Keywords: Financial Crisis, Globalisation, interest rates

mechanism, Uncertainty, Inflation and monetary growth,
complex time scale, social redistribution

The turbulence in financial markets could be counter -

balanced by introducing new tax reductions and lower interest
rates in USA and EU, leading to lower gold prices and more
security for new investors. The Globalisation and financial
measures should go hand in hand in order to balance the jumps
in oil prices which cause enormous distortion in flow of funds
and risk capital. The Countries like Brasil, Turkey, India,
Russia and China are offering guaranteed net earnings up to
37% for foreign investors. The global aggregate demand and
aggregate supply of financial resources should be matched by
appropriate interest rates and financial stimulus mainly
consisting of tax reductions and lower interest rates allowing
more liquidity and profitability against more worldwide risk
absorbing decisions.The political and financial stability in the
Middle East and Pakistan play a significant role for keeping
peace in the world. The involvement of Turkey in Irak could
make the power game more simple.

According to Swiss Banks, the enforced US economic growth

measures would not be able to keep the strength of US Dolar
in World markets. Both Euro and US Dolar will be losing
currencies in 2011, as the jump up of gold prices indicate.
BRIC Countries, Brasi,Russia, India and China are financing
the deficit spending of US economy through their savings. US
Citizens are consuming more than they produce. This
imbalance should be counter-balanced in world scale, as
aggregate demand and supply, in ex-post sense. Through
interest rate adjustments or by printing more money through
the Central Banks or US Federal reserve, will not solve the
structural problem of idle capacity and unemployment in the
world economy, leading to more inflation, causing more loss
inreal assets value. The conflict of interest between US and
Europe, and BRIC Countries should lead to a new monetary
system in the world. China is already buying more Uranium
and Gold instead of US Dolar or Eurobonds.

Since 1980, there has been a significant change in the location

of world economic activity. A greater proportion of world
economic activity is now located in Asia, with China and India
undergoing significant economic growth in recent years and a
projected increase of global economic output in the future.
Twenty years ago just 10% of manufactured goods came from
developing and emerging countries whereas by 2020 the
figure will be 50%. Developing countries are also increasingly
involved in the services sector. The rates of growth in India in
the services sector have been particularly significant. At the
same time there has been significant growth in levels of
capital flows with countries such as China, India, Brazil and
Russia being significant destinations for foreign investment.
(Source: World Bank and IMF).

In order to match the aggregate demand with aggregate supply

on global economic scale, a new imaginary time scale
accounting for the social redistribution of value - added profits
obtained per se from interest rates mechanism by the banking
sector and the cost of using scarce global energy resources
leading to climate change and environmental pollution, has to
be introduced into the interest rate definition. This would then
prevent the structural idle capacity and lack of demand
problems occurring periodically in world economy in cycles
of almost every ten years. The worse effects of global
financial crisis leading to a world war, like the Great
Depression in 1929 led to Second World War in 1941-1945.

The energy content and size of products are going to decline

(miniaturization) more and more. The new knowledge based
materials economy of robotics, mechatronics or sensorconomy
together with socio-technical networking could change all the
existing individual preferences of consumption and well-
known advertisement controlled behavioral patterns. Every
hand-held mobile device is going to be a PC or mobile
switching centre or base station, increasing the memory
capacity of distributed networks infinitely. The introduction of
a new complex time dimension with real - and imaginary
components, could lead to a precise definition of power and
measurability in social sciences.

The complete, end-to end automation and integration of many

national and global economic and financial processes are
going to lead to a new concept of money and capital markets,
complex interest rates, a new global flow of funds totally
decoupled from gold or precious metals together with a new
global IT security system.

Thanks to introduction of new complex time scale with real

and imaginary component, the end to end, stored program
controlled intercontinental global IT networks with infinite
memory capacity, enabling the perfect horizontal and vertical
global integration, allow every individual the network access
without limits, overcoming the Heisenberg’s uncertainty
principle in Physics. The new time and space concepts are
going to introduce new infinitely renewable energy resources,
solving the energy problem, allowing the settlement of
mankind in the universe. The Earth’s constraints on energy
resources and climate will be changed totally in this new era.

The semiconductor physics and Boolean algebra has led to

diodes and transistors, then to integrated circuits, networks,
relational data bases, always more and more intelligence
proportionate to memory capacity. If the mankind could
realize new open networks concepts and new open source
software architectures, enabling the infinite memory capacity
first then the space will also be conquered by the mankind.
The necessary new materials, sensors, networks with new
hardware and software can only be realized by a new time
perception and infinite memory capacity of future networks,
the introduction of complex time scale into economics and
finance, leading to completely new socio-technical projects
financing with new resources and new complex value
judgments leading to a new healthy well-educated highly
knowledgeable individuals, based on a completely new
production and consumption processes, new financial
economy and techno-society.

The emerging powers of the twenty-first century will be based

in Asia and Africa. The US and Europe are going to lose their
power and influence in the twenty-first century. The
alternative is the destruction of the whole world and perfect
power balance in the universe through the mankind, as it was
shown to mankind in Iraq and Afghanistan. The STUX.Net
Virus design was the last western intelligence based attempt to
avoid another similar disaster in Iran.