ASDEM MODEL FOR SUSTAINABLE Policy, Consciousness and

Behaviour to Improve the Disaster Management

Strategies in Bangladesh
 Introduction to geography
Course- GEO205
Section- 10

Submitted to

Dr. Md. Nazrul Islam

Professor
Department of Geography & Environment
Jahangirnagar University

Submitted by
KYOTO

Name ID
Md. Salauddin Hossain 1310409030
Forida Yeasmin Tania 1510496030
Shanunoy Nandi 1512513030
Moaz Bin Islam Sparsha 1512529030
Md. Hossain Khan 1513196030
Mahdi Hasan Khan Chisty 1520426030
Naznin Sultana 1530708649
Jesin Estiana 1610119030
 Letter of Transmittal
23rd December, 2019

Dr. Md. Nazrul Islam

Professor

Department of Geography & Environment

Jahangirnagar University

Dear Sir,

Here is the report, which you asked us to submit for the requirement of my course. The topic of
the report is “ASDEM Model for Sustainable Policy, Consciousness and Behaviour to Improve
the Disaster Management Strategies in Bangladesh”. The whole report was carried out under your
supervision and guidance. The report has not been formerly presented in NSU to the best of my
knowledge. We assure you that without your express written permission, no part of this report will
be published anywhere.

We hope that we are able to fulfil the course requirement successfully through the submission of
this report. We earnestly hope that you will accept our report and it will reach your level of
expectations.

Yours sincerely

Md. Salauddin Hossain Md. Hossain Khan

Forida Yeasmin Tania Mahdi Hasan Khan Chisty

Shanunoy Nandi Naznin Sultana

Moaz Bin Islam Sparsha Jesin Estiana

 Acknowledgement
First and foremost, our heartiest thanks go to our course instructor, Dr. Md. Nazrul Islam for his
support throughout the course. Undoubtedly, his guidance has helped us in our understanding on
the topic and his supervision and valuable feedback during midcourse corrections has helped us to
improve our final report.

We would like to thank the almighty for giving us the patience and ability to work for this
wonderful project.

Lastly, we would also like to spread our sincere appreciation to all the group members, Chisty,
Hossain, Jesin, Naznin, Tania, Sparsha, Shanuno and Salauddin. They altogether correspondingly
contributed to complete the project with highest effort to confirm the project’s accomplishment.
Table of Contents
Chapter-1: Introduction ...............................................................................................................7
1.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................7
1.1Statement of the Problem ....................................................................................................8
1.2Scientific Literature Review.............................................................................................. 10
1.3 Model Parameters Developments ..................................................................................... 11
1.4 Parameters Definitions ..................................................................................................... 12
1.5 Boundary Conditions and Models Assumptions ............................................................... 13
Chapter-2: Methodology and Study Site .................................................................................... 15
2.1 Study area and issues ....................................................................................................... 15
2.2 Selected model parameters ............................................................................................... 15
2.2.1 Driving Forces........................................................................................................... 16
2.2.2 Pressures ................................................................................................................... 17
2.2.3 State .......................................................................................................................... 17
2.2.4 Impact ....................................................................................................................... 17
2.2.5 Response ................................................................................................................... 17
2.3 Data Sources of The Study ............................................................................................... 17
2.3.1 Methodology of Data Collection and Analysis ........................................................... 18
Chapter-3: Model Build Up and Explanation ............................................................................. 19
3.1 Previous Scenarios and Circumstances ............................................................................. 19
3.1.1 Recent history of Natural Disasters ............................................................................ 19
3.2 Model Build-up and Description ...................................................................................... 22
3.2.1 Model Build Up......................................................................................................... 22
3.2.2 Model Description ..................................................................................................... 23
3.3 Future Scenarios and Model Predictions .......................................................................... 24
3.4 Model Validations and Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................... 25
3.5 Model Limitations ........................................................................................................... 25
Chapter-4: Result & Discussion ................................................................................................ 26
4.1 Model Outputs and Integrate with Stakeholders ............................................................... 26
4.2 Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 27
Chapter-05: Conclusion and Recommendation .......................................................................... 29
References ................................................................................................................................ 31
 List of Abbreviation
ADPC- Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre

ADRC- Asian Disaster Reduction Centre

APD -Academy for Planning and Development

ASEAN-Association of South East Asian Nations

BARD-Bangladesh Academy for Rural Development

BDRCS-Bangladesh Red Crescent Society

BFS&CD-Bangladesh Fire Service and Civil Defence

BMD-Bangladesh Meteorological Department

BNBC-Bangladesh National Building Code

BNDV-Bangladesh National Disaster Volunteers

CCC-Climate Change Cell

CCDMC-City Corporation Disaster Management Committee

CDMP-Comprehensive Disaster Management programmer

CEGIS-Centre for Environmental and Geographical Information Services

CPP-Cyclone Preparedness Program

DDMC-District Disaster Management Committee

DDMP-District Disaster Management Plan

 Abstract
Disaster Management as a subject essentially deals with management of resources and information
as far as a disastrous event is concerned and also how effectively and seamlessly one coordinates
these resources. Disaster management, at the individual and organisational level, deals with issues
of planning, coordinating, communication and risk management.

Bangladesh is a disaster-prone country because of her geographic location is known to all. The
capability of this country of managing disaster is also noted. The country has achieved profound
expertise on disaster management. The government is trying multifoil efforts to excel in
management. The present Disaster Management Policy 2019 is the epitome of government zeal.
This policy is formulated with a vision to enhance the country’s capacity in manifold ways
addressing all necessary hazards and establishing risk reduction culture. In the fourth section of
this policy, illustration of capacity enhancement of Government Organization, Non-government
Development organization and private business organization is stated. Some visions are expressed
for capacity strengthening of these three distinctive entities.

For natural disaster management, along with government policy we want to provide a model which
name is Advanced Sustainable Disaster Effective Management (ASDEM). Main purpose of the
model is how we prevent our disaster like hazards, river erosion etc. We have to provide the
knowledge about disaster management to the rural people so that they can easily take any action
before any natural disaster. Monitoring the rural area, aware the public of that area and saving lives
is the main focus of ASDEM model.

Keywords: Disasters, Sustainable, Advanced, Hazards, River erosion, Monitoring, Savings.

 Chapter-1: Introduction
1.0 Introduction
Bangladesh is a low-mendacity deltaic country in south Asia formed through the Ganges, the
Brahmaputra and the Meghna rivers. It is a land of about 136.7 million (SVRS, 2004, BBS) people
inside it’s 147570sq. km (Agricultures statistics WinWing BBS 2004-2005) territory. More than
310 rivers and tributaries have made this country a land of rivers. Natural and human induced risks
including floods, cyclones, tornadoes, earthquakes, high arsenic contents of floor water and
various styles of pollution are common occurrences. Climate change adds a brand-new dimension
to community hazard and vulnerability. Although the value of these adjustment may look like
small, they might substantially increase the frequency and intensity of existing climate events
(floods, droughts, cyclones etc.)

Bangladesh and disaster are closely allied, between 1980 and 2013 the average Bangladeshi
became personally suffering from disasters (remedy web). Bangladesh has score 5 on international
risk index ranking out of 173 countries of the global. Floods, earthquake, river erosion, Nor Westar,
cyclone and many others occurs regularly all the year spherical and causes a wide unfold of losses
to the human beings and property. Amid uncertainty we have something to worth about.
Bangladesh is appeared as a model of catastrophe control remodelling form conventional rescue
and rehabilitation to a comprehensive catastrophe control system. The government of Bangladesh
has promulgated the disaster management ACT 2012 and disaster management policy 2015. The
policy gives a full set of recommendations to catastrophe control activities. In the fourth section
of the policy, it illustrates recommendations to decorate the capacity of the institutions especially
government organization, non-government development enterprise and private business
enterprise. It expresses some visions and guidelines to strengthen the ability of those organizations.
This have a look at intends to discover the policy on institutional potential phase along with the
modern institutional readiness.
1.1Statement of the Problem
Adequate preparedness making plans and chance discount projects assists to minimize the scratch
of disaster. The influences of failures are varied by kind and magnitude. Institutional energy and
response ability of different organization impede catastrophe intensity. Bangladesh has given the
highest precedence to risk reduction task in catastrophe control efforts and mainstreaming it in all
development tasks lead by the government. The catastrophe management policy has promulgated
in September 2015. The content of the policy related to institutional strengthening is very extensive
to catastrophe control system. Strengthening the capability of catastrophe related organization is
an urgent requisite. The look at tries to analyse the institutional capacity enhancement phase of the
policy along with modern institutional readiness of implementing the policy.

Flood is an annual phenomenon typically affecting 30percent of our country but as much as 70
percent in ten years. Flood-associated fatalities are decreasing, however monetary losses had been
increasing through the years. The flood harm capacity is growing because of climate trade,
urbanization, boom of settlements in flood-inclined areas and overreliance on flood manipulate
works including levees and reservoirs.

Severe cyclones with storm surges sometimes in excess of ten meters frequently impact
Bangladesh’s low-lying coast. GoB has a well-coordinated cyclone forecasting, early warning and
evacuation system and the cyclone mortality rate has been reduced greatly from 300,000 in 1971
to 138,882 in 1991 for the same category of cyclone. However, growing and higher concentration
of assets has resulted in increasing economic losses. Tornadoes are seasonal and occur in the pre-
monsoons season. The frequency of tornadoes in Bangladesh is among the highest in the world.

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami raised awareness of the tsunami hazard, though Bangladesh
suffered relatively minor damages. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department monitors tsunami
risk and early warning. A tsunami inundation risk assessment was undertaken with support from
CDMP for the coastal areas of Bangladesh. The assessment identified fault zones in the Bay of
Bengal which could possibly cause tsunami inundation in many coastal areas.

Bangladesh is prone to electrical storms. Deaths caused by lightning strike often occur during the
pre-monsoon season - usually between March and May and often in rural areas where people work
outdoors. The open hoar areas are particularly at risk. MoDMR has declared lightning strike as a
hazard in Bangladesh.

Riverbank erosion is a common problem in Bangladesh due to the deltaic topography and it has
been forcing people to migrate or resettle. Riverbank erosion has rendered millions homeless; the
majority of slum dwellers in large urban and metropolitan towns and cities are victims of erosion.
The major rivers like the Jamuna, the Ganges, the Padma, the Lower Meghna, Arial Khan and
Teesta are highly erosion-prone. Structural interventions are costly and need to be complemented
by non-structural measures, such as erosion prediction and warning. From 2005, prediction
activities were funded by the Jamuna-Meghna River Erosion Mitigation Project (JMREMP) and
EMIN project of the BWDB and WARPO, and in 2008, by UNDP.

Bangladesh is located in a tectonically active region and some of the major cities including Dhaka,
Chittagong and Sylhet are at risk of massive destruction by earthquakes from nearby seismic faults.
To address the earthquake hazard, the Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) was updated
in 2015. Other initiatives include Urban Community Volunteers trained in search-and-rescue and
first aid, training on safe construction to masons and construction workers, and school safety and
evacuation drills. The Urban Development Directorate (UDD) is promoting risk-integrated land-
use planning and updating the existing policy for planned urbanization. Earthquake risk
assessments in some of the main cities was undertaken under CDMP. Earthquakes pose one of the
highest risks in Bangladesh and NPDM 2016-2020 has prioritized earthquake risk reduction as a
key action plan.

Environmentalists are concerned that the power plant would be located less than 10 miles from the
protected Sundarbans mangrove forest. This would lead to the forest’s environmental degradation
from increased maritime transportation, dredging, and pollution of air and water. In addition,
coalfired thermal power plants routinely belch toxic gases that could impact wildlife and human
health as well as forestation in the region. Located in the Southwest Bangladesh, the Sundarban
forest is one of the largest continuous blocks of mangrove forests in the world. The portion of the
forest located in Bangladesh is now in a precarious condition because of primarily anthropogenic
factors. The overexploitation of natural resources has caused severe damage to the ecosystem. A
growing human population with few alternative livelihood opportunities poses a serious threat to
this delicate natural treasure. The rapidly expanding shrimp farming industry, illegal deforestation,
poaching of wildlife, and other forms of encroachment have already resulted in substantial loss of
biodiversity in this area and the deterioration continues at an alarming rate.

1.2Scientific Literature Review

Events that have a massive negative large-scale impact on people have been inconsistently named
“emergency”, “hazard”, “catastrophe”, “incident”, “disaster”, and “crisis” in the literature. Being
consistent with the terminology of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies (IFRC, 2010), the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the UN
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR, 2004a), we use the term “disaster” in the
following sense (IFRC, 2010): “A disaster is a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the
functioning of a community or society and causes human, material, and economic or
environmental losses that exceed the community’s or society’s ability to cope using its own
resources.” The types of events that are covered by the IFRC disaster definition are broad and
include natural, manmade, and technological disasters.

Natural disasters are naturally occurring physical phenomena caused by onset events which can be
geophysical (earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic activity), hydrological (avalanches
and floods), climatological (extreme temperatures, drought and wildfires), meteorological
(cyclones and storms/wave surges) or biological (disease epidemics and insect/animal plagues).
Technological disasters comprise industrial accidents, transport accidents, nuclear accidents,
among others. Man-made hazards include famine, food insecurity, displacement of populations,
environmental degradation, pollution, and terrorism (IFRC). Some disasters may be connected to
or caused by each other, as the recent 2011 Japanese earthquake, the tsunami, and the nuclear
accident show. In this paper, we focus only on natural disasters for two reasons:

The Hyogo Framework for Action (UNISDR, 2005) formulated by the UN in the context of an
“International Strategy for Disaster Reduction” and used in this paper to derive challenges for
future research focuses on disasters of natural origin.

Much information on disasters is related to natural disasters. For example, the World Disasters
Reports of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC, 2010)
provides data mainly for natural disasters. Based on the understanding of the IFRC (2010), we
define the management of natural disasters (NDM) as the organization and management of
resources and responsibilities for dealing with all humanitarian aspects of disasters, in particular
preparedness, response and recovery in order to lessen the impact of disasters. There is broad
consensus in the literature that challenges and activities of disaster management can be classified
along the pre-disaster phase (preparedness), the during disaster phase (response), and the post
disaster phase (recovery) (IFRC, 2010, Chen et al., 2008; Turoff, 2002; Hale, 1997; Ajami and
Fatahi 2009), which can be arranged in a life-cycle (Chen et al., 2008). Among these phases, the
preparedness phase is focused in the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR,
2004a) with “risk assessment and reduction” being identified as the core future challenge in
building resilience against natural disasters, where risk is regarded as the probability of harmful
consequences, or expected losses, and resilience is regarded as the capacity of a system,
community or society potentially exposed to disasters to adapt, by resisting or changing in order
to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. Table 1 provides an
overview of the key terms introduced above

1.3 Model Parameters Developments

Weather Forecasting Centre

Accurate weather forecasting is important for our day to day planning. Information is needed to
help farmers plan their harvest and harvest. Weather forecasts help us make more daily decisions
and even help us avoid danger. The accurate forecasting service will provide reliable, precise
weather data with real-time lightning detection and customizable alerts to help utilities prepare and
restore everything more quickly after a disaster.

This following step are important in the management of disasters risks during extreme
meteorological events:

➢ Monitoring and predicting the weather/climate situation and its evolution.

➢ Predicting impacts or disaster situations and making projections of loss estimates.
➢ Implementing the plan and real-time regulations.
➢ Storing the data and documents.

PPP (Public Private Partnership)

This development program will be more sustainable if we can only establish effective public-
private partnerships. There will be adequate employment for the local people and facilitate
fundraising. New-public-private partnerships can help countries absorb the financial consequences
of catastrophic events.

Storage Equipment For Distressed People

In the event of a disaster, we need to store the equipment we need as quickly as possible. So that
we can try to control the situation later by using them properly. And this model parameters is most
effective tools for improve the disaster management strategies.

Instant Medical Service

Emergency treatment services are critical at all stages of disaster response, including key accident
trials, on-scene treatment, communication, removal, coordination of patient transport and patient
tracking. Health professionals are familiar with the concepts of risk, hazard and vulnerability that
are the cornerstones of disaster prevention.

1.4 Parameters Definitions

Weather Forecasting Centre

Weather forecasts are the use of the latest technologies, science and methods to predict the state
of the atmosphere at a given location at a future time. Adequately preparing for a natural disaster
is as important as its response. Utilities need to know where and when adverse weather conditions
will impact their regions in executing a speedy response to service disruptions. Weather forecasts
are an attempt by forecasters to predict some future conditions and expected weather conditions.
It is obvious that the future of the weather can be important to individuals and organizations.

PPP (Public Private Partnership)

Public-private partnerships can help municipalities and regions face crisis and increase their
resilience to return to their functioning in disaster situations. With this national approach, it is
possible to identify a correspondence between the competencies of private companies and
activities with government agencies
Storage Equipment for Distressed People

Disaster preparedness involves storing items that we can use in case of a disaster. Here are a few
steps to help prevent items from being damaged as we work to ensure our preparedness for a
potential disaster:

➢ Choose the right storage facility.

➢ Choose the right storage place.
➢ Pack everyday items logically.
➢ Label things clearly.
➢ Using self-storage strategically after a disaster.

Instant Medical Service

Emergency Medical Services (EMS), also known as ambulance service or paramedic service, are
emergency services that treat ailments and injuries that require emergency medical response, out-
of-hospital treatment and transportation for optimal care.

1.5 Boundary Conditions and Models Assumptions

A large number of methodological problems have arisen in an attempt to discount future benefits
and costs and to include them in the risk analysis of natural hazards. Discount rates as a means of
incorporating risk into cost analysis are a subject of much debate in the literature. However, in
some ways, it is important to note the underlying problem as to how to handle uncertain outcomes
in the future. Some models handle these through mathematical manipulations and are therefore not
useful in this context.

There are some boundary or limitations that impact in our Disaster Management strategies:

➢ Purpose.
➢ Funding.
➢ Design, Methodology, approach.
➢ Findings.
➢ Acknowledgement.
➢ Disclosure statement.
➢ Theoretical implication.
 ➢ Originality.
➢ Highlight.

This environmental model assumes that disaster planning, preparedness, response and recovery
occur at different levels of the organization. The ecological model assumes that these levels and
these dynamic interactions occur. Disaster management models can serve different goals in
shaping the lives of humankind. One such purpose is to make it easier for anyone to understand
how the models occur, for what purpose and how problems that affect people and their
environment can be solved.

There have some model assumptions which can helps to improve our model, such as:

❖ Infrastructure.
❖ Policy.
❖ Political- Economic.
❖ Sociocultural.
❖ Awareness seminar and conference
 Chapter-2: Methodology and Study Site
2.1 Study area and issues
Bangladesh is bounded on the south by the Bay of Bengal. The coastline of Bangladesh is about
710 km long and the continental self extends over an area of about 24,800 sq. na. miles of which
about 37000km sq. is within 50m depth zone and have good fish resources. Oceans currents in the
Bay of Bengal are complicated because the Bay is rather narrow in the north and flanked by coasts
in three directions (east, north & west) and many rivers flow in it. In general, seas differ than
40m.The effective area of marine fishery ground is estimated to be around 10000 km sq. (4000 sq.
miles). The coastal area of Bangladesh is full of natural resources. Coastal natural resources will
be the main factor in national economy in upcoming years. The national development will be
influenced mainly by the degree of exploitation of these natural resources specially the coastal
fisheries resources. The mangrove forest specially the Sundarban is the great blessing for
Bangladesh. It has huge multidimensional use for the local people and also for the nation.
However, vulnerabilities in the coastal zone are increasing with accentuations of natural hazards
caused by environmental degradation, climate change and human activities as well as exploitation
of mangrove. It has already affected Bangladesh by land erosion, salinity intrusion and loss in
biodiversity. Coastal zone of Bangladesh consists of 19 coastal districts that are Jessore, Narail,
Gopalganj, Shariatpur, Chandpur, Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirozpur, Jhalakati, Barguna,
Barisal, Patuakhali, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Feni, Chittagong, and Cox's Bazar and these
are the most affected areas.

2.2 Selected model parameters

There are few parameters that will shape the overall process. Some of them are:

Emergency Management: it focuses mainly on preparing on beforehand. For all possible

disasters, when the community has its resources identified as well as has control over the expertise,
that is when it is prepared and also putting this together for implementation. Emergency
management has four phases which are mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

▪ Mitigation: it is the preparation to prevent future emergencies and minimize the effects.
For example, in order to reduce certain disasters, we need to try to reduce the effects of
global warming for the long run.
 ▪ Preparedness: this deals with handling the emergencies like rescuing operations and
saving lives.
▪ Response: it is when safety is ensured while responding during emergencies. For
example, turn off the lights and gas during earthquake or maintaining safety while taking
shelter from a tornado.
▪ Recovery: this is when people recover from any emergency. For example, receiving
financial help for the damage or even finding shelter after the disaster.

Training and Education: volunteers or people hired for helping the victims should be well aware
of the ways for handling all possible situations relating to the disaster. So that the damage can be
dealt with extra carefulness. also, for the volunteers to do their task properly they need proper
training and that is only possible when one is arranged by different institution or even by the
government.

Monitoring and evaluation: after the training is provided it is important to ensure that they have
actually acquired the skill whatever is required and have been taught. And test their abilities and
provide necessary feedback to them and if deficiency is found the necessary solutions need to be
given as well.

Public awareness: in order to contribute to the overall goal, people need to start being responsible
and start doing their part. For that, few guidelines need to be followed simply in their daily lives.
For example, create less pollution, follow the policies developed by the government and abide by
the rules etc.

2.2.1 Driving Forces

A “driving force” is a need. Examples of primary driving forces for an individual are the need for
shelter, food and water, while examples of secondary driving forces are the need for mobility,
entertainment and culture. For an industrial sector a driving force could be the need to be profitable
and to produce at low costs, while for a nation a driving force could be the need to keep
unemployment levels low.

Here the driving forces are- overpopulation and urbanization, industrial and residential
development, lack of policy and institutional development, intensive agriculture, land
encroachment etc.
2.2.2 Pressures
The pressures include

Deforestation: it increases the amount of carbon dioxide emissions, also it increases soil
erosion and forest habitants are destroyed leading to loss of different specials and fauna.
Unsustainable agriculture system: machine-intensive farming could contribute to the
increase of carbon concentrations in the atmosphere
Unstable urbanization system: overpopulation highly contributes to the change of
weather pattern and also the water runoff pattern. The number of growing industries
contribute highly to the pollution and increases the amount of precipitation. Also, the
misuse of resources leads to different hazards which are mainly caused by man-made
disturbances.

2.2.3 State
As a result of pressures, the “state” of the environment is affected; that is, the quality of the various
environmental compartments (air, water, soil, etc.) The “state of the environment” is thus the
combination of the physical, chemical and biological conditions. It’s about the ecosystem
properties, species richness, soil productivity etc.

2.2.4 Impact
The impact is the results of driving forces and pressures those are created because of driving forces.
As driving forces were mentioned, based on those the possible impacts could be land slide,
riverbank erosion, hill slope erosion, cyclone, flooding, loss of spices richness, nutrient loss etc.

2.2.5 Response
Based on the recent conditions of the study area like physio- chemical condition of soil, air, water,
meteorological data of coastal area of Bangladesh first go for risk assessment on the basis of the
result of the risk analysis. It can be achieved by Integrated and sustainable disaster management
system, employment of modern technologies, to increase public awareness, to seek solution by
research and development, infrastructure development etc.

2.3 Data Sources of The Study

Secondary data may be appropriate for this work. Basically, this type of data has been already
collected by other institutions or person than the user. Secondary data plays important role for this
research. Secondary data has some advantages and limitations. The common sources of secondary
data are, collected by NGOs, government departments, any other private research organizations
for other research purpose.

Data Source

Secondary Data

Goverment
Earlier Research Other Institutions
Publications

2.3.1 Methodology of Data Collection and Analysis

Here the main objective of our study to identify the importance of management strategies for
natural disaster of Bangladesh. For this study we need both qualitative and quantitative data. All
these data are collected from the secondary data sources.
 Chapter-3: Model Build Up and Explanation
3.1 Previous Scenarios and Circumstances
Bangladesh and Natural disaster go hand in hand. An average Bangladeshi was personally affected
by two natural disaster between 1980 and 2013 (Disaster Preparedness Asia, 2018). Bangladesh is
one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to climate change as the country’s most
primary disasters include floods, droughts,
cyclones, and rising sea-levels (Disaster
Preparedness Asia, 2018). Over the last thirty
years, the country has been

subjected to over 200 climate related

disasters which resulted in economic losses
amounting to over $16 billion. As of 2016,
Bangladesh was ranked 5th in the World Risk
Index (World Risk Report, 2016). It is also
amongst the most exposed countries
worldwide to climate change (World Risk
Report, 2016). Bangladesh being the most
densely populated country in the world, with
Figure 1 World Risk Report 2016
a population of approximately 162 million
people living in landmass that is roughly 60% less than that of Japan (Center for Excellence in
Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance, 2017). As mentioned before Bangladesh is
subject to a number of natural disasters which include earthquakes, Flood and riverbank erosions,
cyclones.

3.1.1 Recent history of Natural Disasters

Cyclone Aila May 2009: This cyclone hit
Bangladesh on 25th may 2009 and caused
substantial damage over most of the south east
region of the country. It resulted in the deaths of
190 people, stranding over three million residents
Figure 2 Cyclone Aila hitting the coast of Cox's Bazaar
and causing an economic cost of over US$ 270 million.

Cyclone Komen July 2015: According to the Centre for Excellence in Disaster Management
reported an estimated 1.5 million people across the coastal district of Bhola, Cox’s Bazaar,
Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni and Bandarban were affected by heavy rain and winds, the cyclone
killed 21 people and thousands of homes and houses were reportedly flattened or flooded.

Tropical Cyclone Mora May 2017: Cyclone Mora was so devastating that in created enormous
landfalls throughout the Chittagong Division on May 2017. The cyclone affected the lives of an
estimated 3.3 million people, 3 people were reported killed, 136 individuals were injured and over
200,000 people were displaced by the disaster.
(Center for Excellence in Disaster Management &
Humanitarian Assistance, 2017)

Floods and Landslides June 2017: in the south-

eastern region of Bangladesh torrential monsoon
rains triggered a deadly mudslide claiming the lives
of at least 135 lives. This caused severe flooding Figure 3 Bangladeshi rescuers search for survivors
in low-lying areas, this caused severe disruptions
to road and communication infrastructure. Districts of Rangamati, Bandarban and Chittagong
remained cut-off from the rest of the country and there was severe lacking of food, water and
electricity (Center for Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance, 2017) .

Bangladesh has witnessed numerous such major disaster that has claimed the lives of hundreds
of thousands of people. Table 1. shows major disasters from the last 25 years.
Table 1 Disaster Management Bureau, 2010
3.2 Model Build-up and Description
3.2.1 Model Build Up
DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, responses) is a framework in which you can look at
and analyse the important and interlinked relationship between social and environmental factors.
It is a well-received popular framework internationally. (Allen, 2012)

Driving Forces

• Overpopulation/Urban • Integrated and sustainable

ization Disaster Management
• Land encroachment • Modern Techniques
• Industrial & Residential • Public Awareness
development • R&D
Pressures •
•
Lack of Policy
Intensive agriculture
• Infrastructure Development
Responses

• Deforestation
• Unsustainable Agriculture
• Unsustainable urbanization
• Chemical Pollution • Land Degradation
• Water Flow Variability
• Hill Slope erosion
• Flooding
• Nutrient loss

• Ecosystem Properties
• Species Richness
• Soil Productivity

State Impacts

Figure 4 Disaster Management Model

3.2.2 Model Description
3.2.2.1 Driving Forces
A ‘driving force’ is a need. Examples of primary driving forces for an individual are the need for shelter,
food and water, while examples of secondary driving forces are the need for mobility, entertainment and
culture. For an industrial sector a driving force could be the need to be profitable and to produce at low
costs, while for a nation a driving force could be the need to keep unemployment levels low. (Kristensen,
2004)

The driving forces include:

❖ Overpopulation and Rapid Urbanization: Bangladesh is also one of the most impoverished
countries in Asia, with a population of approximately 162 million people living in a nation 60
percent smaller than Japan (UN Data, 2016). Nearly 30 percent of the Bangladesh population lives
in poverty. Bangladesh, due to is geographic location in south Asia, is highly vulnerable to man-
made and natural disasters such as fires, structure collapse, cyclones, floods and earthquakes
(Center for Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance, 2017)
❖ Land Encroachment: The growing urbanization in Dhaka has placed pressure on the city’s limited
land, weak environment, and fragile infrastructure. Traffic in the capital city is described as a
“nightmare.” The severe slum population is growing further and adding to human and law and
order issues (Center for Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance, 2017)
❖ Intensive Agriculture: The agriculture sector is one cause of urbanization due to the sector not being
able to take on the additional labor force entering the economy each year. The majority of the urban
population lives in the four major cities: Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, and Rajshahi. The growing
urbanization in Dhaka has placed pressure on the city’s limited land, weak environment, and fragile
infrastructure. (Center for Excellence in Disaster Management & Humanitarian Assistance, 2017)
3.2.2.2 Pressures
Driving forces lead to human activities such as transportation or food production, i.e. result in meeting a
need. These human activities exert 'pressures' on the environment, as a result of production or consumption
processes (Kristensen, 2004). These include things like deforestation as the huge overpopulation and rapid
urbanization will be putting pressure on forests as more of them will be cleared for housing. Unsustainable
agriculture as explained because of rising labor force. And use of chemical pollutants for faster crop growth.

3.2.2.3 States
As a result of pressures, the ‘state’ of the environment is affected; that is, the quality of the various
environmental compartments (air, water, soil, etc.) in relation to the functions that these
compartments fulfil. The ‘state of the environment’ is thus the combination of the physical,
chemical and biological condition (Kristensen, 2004). this will mean that the ecosystem of the
country will be greatly affected and the species richness will be depleted at an alarming rate as it
is being witnessed right now. Not to mention soil Productivity will be greatly degraded due to the
pressures and driving forces.

3.2.2.4 Impacts
The changes in the physical, chemical or biological state of the environment determine the quality
of ecosystems and the welfare of human beings. In other words changes in the state may have
environmental or economic ‘impacts’ on the functioning of ecosystems, their life supporting
abilities, and ultimately on human health and on the economic and social performance of society
(Kristensen, 2004).

Land Degradation will be the greatest impact in terms of Bangladesh’s sustainability not to
mention the immense pressure it will have on the country’s disaster management. The rapid
urbanization will accelerate water flow variability further worsening the flooding situation not to
mention that it will affect the amount of drinking water available. Hill slope erosion, frequent
landslides will increase the death toll in case of further natural disaster.

3.2.2.5 Responses
‘response’ by society or policy makers is the result of an undesired impact and can affect any part
of the chain between driving forces and impacts. (Kristensen, 2004) Which Includes an Integrated
and sustainable Disaster Management with the use of the most modern of techniques and also
raising the public awareness in order to better inform the people so as to what they should do in
times of natural disaster. More investment of research and development to increase survivability
of the people as well as investment on better infrastructure.

3.3 Future Scenarios and Model Predictions

Scenarios are often played out without preconditions and unpredictability, not to mention they often rely
on historical data and conditions so as to predicts future outcomes that we may or may not come across.
Therefore, in order to prevent such uncertainty from occurring contingency plans are imperative to prevent
any sudden environmental disasters from happening.
Henceforth, based on achievements and “gaps” in the current disaster related project interventions there has
been an endeavors in the efforts to creating a more comprehensive DM-related research and development
activities on scientific and socio-economic issues. (Disaster Management Bureau, 2017).

Strengthen formal institutional capacities and social protection institutions and Close gaps in institutional
policies and programs on drought and cold wave hazards. Contemporary technologies and innovations for
improved weather and climate monitoring, prediction and forecasting (Disaster Management Bureau,
2017). Start awareness raising and data products on earthquakes as well as upgrade and strengthen national
awareness enhancing capabilities. (Disaster Management Bureau, 2017)

3.4 Model Validations and Sensitivity Analysis

The model takes into account the ground reality of the disaster prevention management in the
country. And therefore, provides a clear real time evaluation and provides a simple and yet
effective method of minimizing risk of hazards (natural disaster). It also provides a feedback loop
so as to reassess any shortcomings that may arise and identify key areas for improvement in
preparedness so that they can be clearly analysed and proper measures may be taken so as to
remove any obstacles to ensure rapid disaster management and relief to the elements at risk
(community).

3.5 Model Limitations

Not all hazards can be managed and not all risks can be eliminated or minimized. At times a
response to an emerging threat or an event that has happened will be necessary. In this case,
response and recovery systems that have been developed in managing the risk environment are
activated as needed to respond to the threat (Disaster Management Bureau, 2010). Such response
may include:

❖ Warning Period (Alert and activation).

❖ Hazard Onset (Response).
❖ Post Hazard Period (Relief, early recovery and Rehabilitation) (Disaster Management
Bureau, 2010)
 Chapter-4: Result & Discussion
4.1 Model Outputs and Integrate with Stakeholders

Understanding disaster threats requires comprehension of not only geophysical and biological
processes and outcomes, but also the condition of population, economy and income levels, as well
as other elements related to socio-economic condition (Haque, 2003). Natural disasters can have
significant impacts on the overall economic performance of the society. Figure 1 depicts that
natural disasters affect four main socio-economic related determinants, namely: GDP, population,
income level, and insurance. Most of the time natural disasters have led to GDP fluctuation,
economic loss, population loss, and insured loss among different income levels not only in
developing countries but also in developed countries (Haque, 2003; Skidmore and Toya, 2002;
Toya and Skidmore, 2007). One of the most distinguished features of each natural disaster is
population exposure. This exposure includes casualties (deaths and injuries). Many of the socio-
economic and demographic variables are highly correlated with deaths and injuries associated with
natural disasters (Haque, 2003).

Ibarrarán et al. (2007) claimed that limited access to credit markets, insurance facilities and
government officials play critical role in exacerbating the impacts of natural disasters in society
particularly in the poor communities. Minority and lower income people are less likely to hold
earthquake and flood insurance instruments (Fothergill and Peek, 2004; Zahran et al. 2008). Many
house owners in flood and earthquake-prone areas in USA were not insured against these dangers,
although insurance was rather inexpensive and the government supported in most cases (Brilly and
Polic, 2005).

Altay and Green (2006) investigated a comprehensive review on operation research and decision
making in disaster management. They found that most researchers have focused on mitigation,
preparedness, and response and recovery phases of natural disasters. For flood disaster, Akter and
Simonovic (2005) proposed a flood management decision making methodology to capture the
views of multiple stakeholders using fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic. Finally, decision making
theory facilitates to select appropriate criteria to select ample stakeholders. The use of decision-
making techniques can be dated back to four decades. Since then, the theory and applications have
been developed significantly (Shih, 2007).

4.2 Discussion
Disasters vary in size, from smaller events such as a storm affecting a single suburb, to large-scale
events that can affect whole cities or large areas that cross state boundaries.

As a result of disasters, people may be injured or killed, or may lose their homes and valuable
possessions. It is important to protect your family, home, business and assets from such events.
Insurers provide society with the means to do this. Following a natural
disaster, insurance companies can pay claims to policyholders with the right policies who are
affected, allowing communities to rebuild. Taking steps to prepare for a disaster can help get you
back to normal faster. If you are unprepared, the devastation and financial loss caused by natural
disasters can be magnified.

Most of us live in areas that can be affected by extreme weather and other natural disasters, whether
it is from bushfires, floods, severe storms, droughts, cyclones or earthquakes.

The first step is to identify the types of disasters you are exposed to, the likelihood of these
occurring and their potential impact. Knowing the most common hazards in your area —
particularly if you’re new to the region — can help you focus your preparation plans for each
hazard.

For instance, ask yourself:

 ➢ Is my area vulnerable to any natural hazards?
➢ How often are these hazards likely to occur in my area?
➢ Which of my assets would be affected?
➢ To what extent would l be affected financially?
➢ How would I recover if I did not have insurance?
➢ How can each disaster be predicted or mitigated?

Local councils and emergency management authorities can help you identify risk in your area and
outline the local plans and recommendations for each.

Once you have identified the disasters you are exposed to, it’s important to review your insurance
policies and confirm your cover against various events. If you don’t have insurance, consider the
types of policies you may require and the risks you need them to cover.

If you live in a flood or bushfire zone, it would be wise to insure your property accordingly. For
example, if your home is next to a river or creek and your property is at risk of flooding, check
your policy to see if you’re covered. If you’re unsure, contact your insurer to find out.

Many insurers will place embargoes on insurance when natural disasters are considered imminent.
This means if a cyclone is heading your way you may not be able to purchase insurance cover until
the insurer lifts restrictions on new policies. Embargoes prevent property owners buying insurance
just before a disaster strikes and then cancelling once the risk has passed
 Chapter-05: Conclusion and Recommendation
This model calls for advancement of the disaster and development paradigm, particularly with
respect to its ongoing contribution to DRR. Reviewing of the current paradigm already confirms a
need to emphasize the evolution of maneuverable ideas in finding intellectual and applied ways
out of impasse for the sake of future survivability. Some progress in the policy environment is
evident but it is often the case that disaster risk reduction decision making is only as good as the
capacity to understand and respond to environmental, economic, and social change. Less progress
has been made in addressing complex intersections of environmental systems, power, and cultures
that underlie emergent understanding of the nature of risk reactions and active engagement.

As ways forward may become more accessible than hitherto encountered within this sector,
aspirations to build up quality of life in a risk sensitive manner has to be enabled further alongside
any advance of the paradigm. Health and well-being aspects present a readily accessible and
transformative way to advance the actuality of a fully people-centered approach. We can note in
this context also that hope resides in that unknowing can be accompanied by vulnerability
reduction and investments in sustainable development that would offset both known and unknown
disaster threats. Risk as a function of uncertainty is part non-experiential and non-evidence based.
More progress could therefore also be harnessed by greater use of disaster and development
collective awareness and engagement. Recognizing and acting upon the barriers to people taking
control of DRR for themselves within their own lives is very much part of the disaster and
development paradigm. Barrier removal for transitioning to future security, peace, and well-being,
however, also requires appropriate political and economic contexts, and will require new
technological breakthroughs that reduce the creation of hazards, risks, and disasters in society. An
ascendant capacity to survive therefore requires actions driven by combinations of moral
imperatives and plenty of highly motivated people.

A national strategy for reducing costs, loss of life, and injuries needs to have a broad, but well-
defined scope with implementable actions and achievable results. This document provides
recommendations for multiple areas that could be further explored during the development of a
national strategy, grouped within the following themes:

o Engage in a Whole Community Dialogue and Build upon Public-Private

Partnerships
 o Enhance Data-Driven Decisions
o Align Incentives Promoting Disaster Cost Reduction and Resilience
o Enable Resilient Recovery
o Support Disaster Risk Reduction Nationally

Overall, a national strategy should adopt a multi-faceted approach that positions the Nation to
reduce its exposure to, and better respond to and recover from, costly disasters. These
recommendations offer examples of areas that would need much greater discussion and research
to develop into a strategic and actionable path forward. However, implementation of cost reduction
and cost avoidance strategies will require commitment and investment by the Whole Community
to achieve the potential long-term savings and impact.

Bangladesh is one of the disaster-prone countries of the world, with extremely limited resources,
its real development is not possible without the integration of disaster mitigation programms. Our
planning thrust is therefore diverted towards disaster management as a major consideration in
regional development planning. Bangladesh is striving hard to establish an elaborate and
experienced disaster management system from national down to community level to mitigate the
effects of disasters. Being aware of the limitations and the vulnerability of the country to natural
disaster, the GoB has been making continuous efforts to make Bangladesh a part of safer world in
the 21st century and seek help of development partners
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