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Seminar Nasional Teknologi Peternakan dan Veteriner 2006

DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF ANIMAL FEED


IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
(Permintaan dan Suplai Pakan Ternak di Asia Tenggara)
MR. TIMOTHY LOH

SE Marketing Director American Soybean Association

ABSTRAK

Dengan populasi yang beragam sebanyak seperdua milliar penduduk, Asia Tenggara merupakan pasar
yang menarik di dunia. Namun isu ekonomi dan kesehatan pada dekade yang lalu telah menyurutkan fungsi
pasar yang sedang berkembang di Thailand, Indonesia, Filipina, Malaysia dan Vietnam. Dalam presentasi ini
akan dibahas (1) suplai global bahan pakan, (2) impor dan ekspor bahan mentah untuk bahan pakan dan
kendala perdangannya seperti tarif dan quota, (3) ketersediaan bahan pakan ternak di Asia Tenggara, (4)
kinerja pasar pakan ternak di masing-masing negara, dan (5) proyeksi perminataan dan suplai pakan ternak di
Asia Tenggara. Fokus kedua akan meliputi flu burung (virus HPA, H5N1) dan dampaknya pada konsumsi
pakan dan konsumsi produk ternak untuk pasar dalam negeri dan ekspor. Fakta ini bertanggung jawab
terhadap berfluktuasinya suplai dan permintaan pakan ternak dan akibatnya mengingat harga dan kelancara
ekspor dan impor bahan pakan seperti biji-bijian dan ampas minyak dan produk ampas minyak dalam
beberapa tahun yang lalu.
Kata Kunci: Permintaan, Suplai, Pakan, Asia Tenggara

ABSTRACT

With a combined population of almost half a billion people, Southeast Asian has some of the most vibrant
markets in the world. However, economic and health issues in the past decade has curtailed what should have
been steadily rising growth in many of the mature markets such as Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia
and Vietnam. The content of this presentation will cover: (1) global supply of feed ingredients, (2) Import and
export of raw feed ingredients and trade barriers, e.g. tariffs and quotas, (3) availability of raw feed
ingredients within the region, (4) profile of the feed markets in each country and finally (5) a forecast of the
demand and supply of feed in Southeast Asia. A secondary focus will cover the problem of avian influenza,
i.e. HPAI H5N1, virus and its impact on the consumption of feed and livestock in the domestic and export
markets. This one factor has been largely responsible for the fluctuating supply and demand for feed and its
constituents, affecting prices and disrupting the regularity of imports and exports of commodities such as
grains, oilseeds and oilseed products in the last few years.
Key Words: Demand, Supply, Feed, Southeast Asia

INTRODUCTION been steadily rising growth in many of the


mature markets such as Thailand, Indonesia,
The agricultural and livestock markets in Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam as a result
Southeast Asia is both diverse and extreme as of growing populations, urbanization, and
the stark contrast of progressive integrators and generally positive economic activity.
food processors co-exists side by side with In terms of size and growth potential, the
backyard operators in most countries making abovementioned countries will be the focus of
the majority. With a combined population of this presentation, leaving out Cambodia,
almost half a billion people, Southeast Asian Myanmar and Laos; countries’ whose
has some of the most vibrant markets in the agricultural markets remain largely under-
world. However, economic and health issues in developed. The content of this presentation
the past decade has curtailed what should have will cover: (1) global supply of feed

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Seminar Nasional Teknologi Peternakan dan Veteriner 2006

ingredients, (2) Import and export of raw feed Southeast Asia and is placed last with a
ingredients and trade barriers, e.g. tariffs and production volume of 8-9 million metric tons a
quotas, (3) availability of raw feed ingredients year.
within the region, (4) profile of the feed Tables 2 and 3 give a statistical account of
markets in each country and finally (5) a feed production against population. Obviously,
forecast of the demand and supply of feed in population has a very strong and direct
Southeast Asia. A secondary focus will cover correlation to feed demand, i.e. more people
the problem of avian influenza, i.e. HPAI means higher demand for meat protein. Growth
H5N1, virus and its impact on the consumption in world population and increased affluence
of feed and livestock in the domestic and among people especially in developing
export markets. This one factor has been countries have resulted in dietary changes and
largely responsible for the fluctuating supply large increases in animal and feed production
and demand for feed and its constituents, over the past 2 decades.
affecting prices and disrupting the regularity of In table 3, it is interesting to note that China
imports and exports of commodities such as with its population at 1.3 billion people only
grains, oilseeds and oilseed products in the last produces 96 million tons of feed compared
few years. with USA, which produces 50% more feed at
145 million tons but with a population of only
Table 1. Economic growth: Southeast Asia 275 million. This is a telling statistic and
(Calendar Year) indicative of the disparity between developed
and developing countries and will be discussed
Real GDP based on annal percentage change
in more detail during the presentation.
Year % Figure 1 shows global demand for meat
1999 3.9 over the past 14 years while Figure 2 shows the
2000 6.5 relationship between per capita GDP and
consumption of all meats including caught fish
2001 2.2 and aquaculture fish (ANON, 2004; GRAINGER,
2002 4.5 2002). When GDP increases to developing
2003 5.3 country status, growth in meat consumption
2004 6.4 rises quickly reflecting consumer desires. In
many countries, per capita income levels have
2005 5.5 more than doubled over the past two decades.
2006 5.3 Based on these figures, feed demand is likely
2007 5.3 to remain strong as the per capita 5.3 income of
2008 5.3 developing countries continue to rise.

Sumber: ERS USDA


RAW FEED INGREDIENTS

Global consumption for the above


GLOBAL FEED PRODUCTION commodities has remained on an upward trend
with soybean showing the steepest climb. The
According to the International Feed utilization and demand for soybeans and its
Industry Federation, total world feed output is products, soybean meal and soy oil for human
estimated at 614 million metric tons. Of that and animal consumption have increased
amount, USA, EU (25), China and Brazil substantially and this trend is likely to continue
accounts for 70% of that production. It is also spurred on in no small part by the growing
estimated that some 3,800 feed mills produce demand for bio-diesel as an alternative fuel
over 80% of all compound feed produced and source. The same goes for corn consumption as
that 10 of the largest feed companies produce the ethanol pipeline also continues to grow.
around 65 million tons of animal feed per As bio-fuels draw down supplies of
annum globally. Of the top 15 feed producing agricultural commodities, prices of soybeans
countries, Thailand is the only country from and corn is expected to remain firm while

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Seminar Nasional Teknologi Peternakan dan Veteriner 2006

production adjusts to keep pace. Analysts back on consuming poultry and switched to
speculate that soybean meal and DDGS may other protein sources during the worst of the
flood the market at low prices being a by- bird-flu crisis in 2004. Now with the latest AI
product of the bio-fuel extraction process. casualties in Indonesia and as the death toll
continues to climb, the effect on poultry
consumption and as such feed production has
BIRD FLU yet to be measured.
Although the economic impact of AI has
taken a serious toll on many poultry operations SUMMARY
around the world, one of the most serious
issues that producers have had to deal with is This brief sets the backdrop for the
consumer confidence. All the way down the presentation when more points will be
poultry processing and distribution chain, discussed and highlighted in detail.
businesses have suffered as consumers held

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