Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346

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Engineering Geology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enggeo

Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully,
Yunnan Province, China
Jianqi Zhuang a,b,⁎, Peng Cui c, Gonghui Wang d, Xiaoqing Chen c, Javed Iqbal e, Xiaojun Guo c
a
School of Geological Engineering and Surveying of Chang'an University, Key Laboratory of Western China Mineral Resources and Geological Engineering, Xi'an 710054, China
b
Institute of Geo-hazards Mitigation of Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China
c
Institute of Mountain hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610064, China
d
Research Centre on Landslides, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
e
Department of Earth Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Abbottabad, Pakistan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The Jiangjia Gully (JJG), Yunnan Province, China, is one of several debris flow gullies that characterize the topog-
Received 24 September 2014 raphy of mountainous areas in China. Rainfall-triggered debris flows are frequent in the JJG. In order to model and
Received in revised form 10 June 2015 predict these debris flow occurrences, we analyzed precipitation parameters (including intensity–duration
Accepted 14 June 2015
thresholds and rainfall event–duration thresholds) that triggered past debris flow events in the JJG. Since the
Available online 17 June 2015
JJG is unique, any model used for predicting debris flows in this gully must be developed using data from only
Keywords:
this gully. Furthermore, the effects of normalized precipitation and antecedent precipitation on debris flows in
Debris flow the JJG were considered. Debris flow data and precipitation data were compiled from 47 debris flow events in
Prediction 1993, 1994, 1998–2001, 2004 and 2006 in JJG. All of these debris flows were triggered following a precipitation
Rainfall thresholds event with a duration of 6 h or less, with most of the precipitation events exhibiting a duration of 3 to 6 h. Only
Jiangjia Gully three rainfall events with a duration of less than 1 h and average intensity between 1.0 and 42.0 mm/h produced
debris flows. The 90%, 70% and 50% probability curves for debris flow events were then constructed. Intensity–
duration (I–D) and rainfall event–duration (RE–D) thresholds were then used for debris flow modeling based
on preliminary tests and comparisons. Antecedent precipitation was found not to be a significant factor in trig-
gering debris flows in the JJG; however, intraday precipitation played a significant role. Normalized precipitation
threshold curves from adjacent areas were not well-correlated with the patterns observed in the JJG. Determina-
tion of unique thresholds for each gully is necessary for developing an effective prediction system.
Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Debris flows occur in various mountainous regions around the world,
with effects on local economies, as well as on life and infrastructure (e.g.
dams, roads) in nearby counties and villages. They are characterized by
mass densities ranging from 1.3 to 2.3 t/m3, speeds of 3 to 15 m/s, flow
discharges from tens to thousands of times the normal stream flow in
the region, and a wide range in particle diameters, from 10−6 m to
10 m (Cui et al., 2005; Zhuang et al., 2010). Rainfall, especially that from
short duration rainstorms, has been identified to be one of the most
important factors responsible for triggering debris flows (Wieczorek
and Guzzetti, 1999; Cui et al., 2005; Chen et al., 2006a,2006b; Guzzetti
et al., 2007, 2008; Zhuang et al., 2009; Shieh et al., 2009; Floris et al.,
2010; Cannon et al., 2011; Li et al., 2011; Hu et al., 2011; Guo et al.,
2013). Therefore, it is vital to forecast the occurrence of such flows and
develop effective warning systems based on the relationships between
precipitation and debris flow events (Crosta, 1998; Aleotti, 2004;
⁎ Corresponding author at: Institute of Geo-hazards Mitigation of Chang'an University,
Xi'an 710054, China.
Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Baum and Godt, 2010; Engel et al., 2011;
Jakob et al., 2012). Many researchers have attempted to correlate
rainfall/precipitation with debris flows (Wieczorek and Guzzetti, 1999;
Guzzetti et al., 2008). Accordingly, many critical thresholds and models
for debris flow initiation have been suggested using different precipita-
tion parameters, such as precipitation duration–precipitation intensity
(I–D model) (Cannon et al., 2008, 2011), antecedent rainfall–cumulative
rainfall (AR–R model) (Wieczorek and Guzzetti, 1999), antecedent
effective rainfall–cumulative rainfall (AER–R model) (Baum and Godt,
2010), maximum hourly rainfall intensity–cumulative rainfall (Imax–R
model) (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008), normalized rainfall–cumulative rain-
fall (Inorm–R model) (Guzzetti et al., 2008), and daily rainfall–maximum
hourly rainfall intensity (Imax–Rd model) (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008).
The effective critical threshold for a precipitation-induced landslide
must take into account the local topography, geology, debris characteris-
tics (distribution, volume and soil strength) and hydrogeological parame-
ters (Cannon, 1988; Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Cannon et al., 2008; Baum
and Godt, 2010; Cannon et al., 2011). Among the critical threshold models
that have been proposed by researchers around the world, the corre-
sponding rainfall durations/intensities differ by up to three orders of

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.06.006
0013-7952/Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
336
magnitude between certain models (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008). Even
within the same geographical zone, there can exist differences in rainfall
duration and/or intensity of up to one order of magnitude; this variation
arises from rainfall sampling resolution, and physiographical, geological
or geomorphological differences. In other words, a limitation of regional
or even local precipitation thresholds is the fact that thresholds defined
for a particular area cannot be easily implemented for assessing surround-
ing areas, including some areas that possess similar environmental condi-
tions (Crosta and Frattini, 2008; Crosta, 1998).
The most common precipitation parameters used in determining
critical thresholds for debris flows are antecedent rainfall, antecedent
effective rainfall, precipitation duration, precipitation intensity, cumula-
tive rainfall, maximum hourly rainfall intensity, normalized rainfall, and
daily rainfall (Guzzetti et al., 2008). Rainfall thresholds can be grouped
into two broad categories; (i) empirical threshold, which uses historical
debris flow and precipitation data (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Baum
and Godt, 2010; Zhuang et al., 2014); (ii) physical threshold, which
employs a hydro-mechanical model of debris flow occurrences
(Takahashi, 1991; Cui, 1992; Iverson, 1997). Several decades of research
on debris flow initiation processes suggests that the former method is
more extensively used worldwide (Guzzetti et al., 2007; Baum and
Godt, 2010). Empirical rainfall thresholds are defined by measuring
rainfall events that have resulted in debris flows; the most commonly
used units of measurement for the parameters of these rainfall events
include: (i) Intraday rainfall and antecedent effective rainfall (Tan and
Duan, 1995; Wei et al., 2005; Cui et al., 2008; Zhuang et al., 2014), (ii)
rainfall intensity–duration thresholds (Godt et al., 2006; Guzzetti
et al., 2007; Cannon et al., 2008), (iii) cumulative rainfall event–duration
thresholds (Kanji et al., 2003; Aleotti, 2004; Giannecchini, 2005), (iv)
cumulative rainfall event–average rainfall intensity thresholds
(Heyerdahl et al., 2003; Hong et al., 2005), and (v) other thresholds,
including normalized cumulative rainfall events and normalized rainfall
intensity (Cannon, 1988; Jibson, 1989; De Vita et al., 1998; Jakob and
Weatherly, 2003). Numerous studies have analyzed the empirical
relationship between rainfall and debris flow occurrences, proposing
various critical thresholds and equations for different regions. For exam-
ple, studies were conducted near San Francisco, CA, USA (Baum and
Godt, 2010), wildfire-prone areas in the western USA (Cannon et al.,
2008), the Alps in Europe (Guzzetti et al., 2007), Taiwan (Chen et al.,
2006a, 2006b; Shieh et al., 2009; Kung et al., 2012), Hong Kong (Chan
et al., 2003) and the Xiaojiang–Anning river basin in China (Tan and
Duan, 1995; Wei et al., 2005; Cui et al., 2008; Hu et al., 2010). However,
the agencies responsible for implementing safety protocols generally
30
25
Nember of debris flow occurrence
20
15
10
5
0 0
1965
Fig. 1. The number of debris flow events and annual sediment transport by debris flows during an average rainy season in the JJG, Yunnan, China.
J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346
lack the necessary resources for the provision of continuous support
or expansion of services to other areas due to variation in local geolog-
ical conditions.
Rainfall-induced debris flows are relatively common in the Jiangjia
Gully (JJG), Yunnan Province, China. Located in mountainous south-
western China, the debris flows in this gully are fairly typical of those
that occur in other mountainous areas in China. Regular observations
and systematic data collection of debris flows in JJG have been conduct-
ed by the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment at the Chinese
Academy of Sciences since 1965. Typically, 10 to 20 min of high-
intensity rainfall can initiate a debris flow from shallow landslides in
this gully, with an average debris flow density of 2.0 t/m3 (Kang et al.,
2004; Cui et al., 2005). This is due to the presence of complex geological
structures, fragile rock formations, numerous shallow landslides, and
abundant rainfall in the gully. During every rainy season (May–Octo-
ber), about 12–20 debris flows occur in the region (Fig. 1). Several
prediction models have been proposed with respect to the JJG based
on intraday rainfall (Wei et al., 2005; Cui et al., 2008) and antecedent
10-min rainfall (Wu et al., 1990; Guo et al., 2013) before debris flow
occurrences, but none of them have demonstrated acceptable accuracy.
Meanwhile it is still unclear what the most influential rainfall parame-
ters (antecedent rainfall, intraday rainfall and rainfall intensity) are, in
terms of the triggering of debris flows. In this study, we developed
prediction models using different rainfall parameters and methods,
and then validated the models using actual debris flow events. Based
on this, the influences of different rainfall parameters on debris flow
occurrence are discussed.
In order to forecast debris flows in the JJG, the characteristics of past
precipitation events that triggered debris flows in the gully were
analyzed to construct a comprehensive precipitation threshold model,
including both I–D and RE–D models. Data was obtained from
DCDFORS (Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station,
located in Yunnan Province, China; Fig. 2). Finally, the effects of different
precipitation parameters on debris flow occurrences are discussed.
2. Geological setting of the study area
The Jiangjia Gully is a tributary of the Xiaojiang River, which has 106
other tributaries that are also subject to debris flows. The watershed of
the Xiaojiang River is colloquially known in China as the “World's
Natural Museum of Debris Flows” (Cui et al., 2005). The drainage
basin intersects the Xiaojiang River at a distance of 31 km south of the
junction of the Xiaojiang River and the Jinsha River. The JJG has a
700
Number of debris flow
Sediment transport 600
Sediment transport /×104m3
500
400
300
200
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346 337

Yinjiaao Precipitation
Observing Station

Soil infiltration
test site Mayiping Precipitation
Observing Station

Observation Section Chenjialiangzi Precipitation

Observing Station

Soil water content

monitor site
Dongchuan Precipitation Observing
High: 3177.2 m Station and Dongchuan Debris Flow
Observation and Research Station
Wanfangzi Precipitation
Low: 1295.1 m Observing Station

Beijing

First terrace Yellow River

Second-Yangtze
terrace River
Third-
Kunming terrace

Fig. 2. Map of the study area and the observation site (a: location of the JJG in China; b: observation area of the JJG; c: debris flow event locations; d: watershed of the JJG and observation
stations).

trunk channel length of 13.9 km and covers a total area of 48.6 km2. It is
located within the Xiaojiang fault zone in northeastern Yunnan Province
in Southwest China (N23°13′–23°17′, E103°6′–103°13′).
The study area is characterized by intense tectonism; about 80% of
the exposed rocks are highly fractured and slightly metamorphosed.
The predominant sandstone and slate can be easily differentiated by
their color (light and dark, respectively). Both rock types are weak,
and easily weathered and fragmented. Colluvium is widely distributed
on slopes, which provide materials for shallow landslides. The total
cumulative volume of clastic detritus, which acts as potential source
material for future debris flows, is estimated to be 1.2 × 109 m3 (Wu
et al., 1990). The main stream extends from the drainage basin at an

Precipitation

Precipitation

Antecedent Rainfall The time of the debris

precipitation event flow occurrence

The interval time of

Rainfall
no precipitation is
duration
more than 3 hours
Time
Fig. 3. List of the main precipitation items that contribute to debris flow formation.
338 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346

altitude of 3269 m, westwards to the junction with the Xiaojiang River
at an altitude of 1042 m. Slopes steeper than 25° comprise 55% of the
basin area, with an altitude difference of 500 m (Wu et al., 1990) (Fig. 2).
During every rainy season (May–October), when 85% of the annual
precipitation falls, about 12–20 debris flows occur in the region. The
record for the highest annual number of events was 28 in 1965. In
1961, DCDFORS was established with the cooperation of the Institute
of Mountain Hazards and Environment at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences. Since 1987, regular observations and systematic data collec-
tion on debris flows have been conducted.
The annual average sediment yield in the JJG is 2.0 million m3, while
a maximum of 6.6 million m3 was reported in 1991 as a result of
unusually numerous and heavy debris flows in that year (Cui et al.,
2005). The average annual rainfall is 800 mm, with a maximum of
1130 mm and a minimum of 514 mm (during the period 1953–2010).
Thunderstorms are frequent during the rainy season. Typically, a
high-intensity rainfall event lasting 10 to 20 min can trigger a debris
flow (Kang et al., 2004). The discharge rate of each debris flow ranges
from hundreds to thousands of cubic meters per second (Kang et al.,
2004).

Table 1
Debris flow and corresponding precipitation data (debris flow peak discharge (Pd), debris flow discharge (Di), sediment transport (St), debris flow density (De)).

Time I/mm/min D/min RE/mm AER/mm St/m3 Pd/m3/s Di/m3/s De/g/cm3

1993-8-26 0.056 520 29.120 12.100 – – – –

1993-8-29 0.077 400 30.800 18.600 – – – –
1994-6-26 0.384 120 46.080 29.000 – – – –
1994-6-15 0.102 520 53.040 12.500 – – – –
1994-7-2 0.212 160 33.920 – – – – –
1994-7-19 0.233 60 13.980 8.200 – – – –
1994-8-21 0.096 140 13.440 6.100 – – – –
1998-8-2 0.121 220 26.620 18.400 – – – –
1998-8-4 0.035 720 25.200 20.100 – – – –
1998-8-7 0.713 60 42.780 – – – – –
1998-8-12 0.300 1200 36.200 15.300 – – – –
1999-7-16 0.197 240 47.280 34.000 – – – –
1999-7-24 0.163 290 47.270 28.900 520,456 1159 911,870 2.20
1999-7-24 0.530 70 37.100 19.300 157,018 954 253,806 2.10
1999-8-10 0.072 850 61.200 23.600 114,400 757 182,284 1.88
1999-8-16 0.037 880 32.560 25.750 489,828 924 747,374 2.15
1999-8-18 0.034 1190 40.460 49.550 126,612 1060 185,684 2.21
1999-8-25 0.051 470 23.970 36.200 215,141 1350 333,592 2.12
2000-6-20 0.202 230 46.460 31.380 99,157 696 160,522 2.13
2000-7-4 0.204 260 53.040 11.230 78,468 442 133,253 2.07
2000-7-6 0.006 1010 6.060 33.190 40,876 555 65,853 2.11
2000-7-15 0.048 1570 75.360 19.600 16,323 35 40,888 1.73
2000-8-8 0.142 310 44.020 23.500 131,293 73 307,735 1.63
2000-8-9 0.144 140 20.160 31.600 102,481 1138 157,922 2.16
2000-8-29 0.103 360 36.900 22.700 54,980 525 95,062 1.97
2001-6-26 0.197 230 45.310 13.430 6996 35 14,625 1.79
2001-6-27 0.219 240 52.560 30.340 455 30 77,302 1.95
2001-6-29 0.112 270 30.240 59.250 96,088 1037 154,820 2.02
2001-7-1 0.211 40 8.440 53.310 24,363 – 41,867 1.72
2001-7-4 0.023 1300 29.900 42.510 79,494 498 125,110 2.05
2001-7-8 0.063 410 25.830 39.760 331,555 775 627,585 1.87
2001-7-24 0.038 300 11.500 5.270 – – – –
2001-7-30 0.085 420 35.700 7.080 16,386 65 31,672 1.85
2001-8-5 0.353 80 28.240 15.300 131,456 747 184,714 2.17
2001-8-13 0.088 190 16.720 29.830 534,143 1311 715,133 2.23
2001-8-19 0.207 180 37.260 14.100 667,493 781 919,177 2.20
2001-8-22 0.100 210 21.000 28.020 727,688 1279 1,015,276 2.18
2004-6-26 0.083 210 17.430 18.096 27,003 552 17,495 2.07
2004-7-9 0.017 560 9.576 92.595 20,068 34 10,095 1.83
2004-8-25 0.235 100 23.500 3.588 492,043 840 341,061 2.14
2004-7-31 0.084 40 3.360 0.772 34,322 280 24,619 2.18
2004-7-19 0.152 120 18.240 12.637 87,332 462 57,446 2.09
2004-7-21 0.063 180 11.340 4.769 74,658 684 47,677 2.05
2006-7-6 0.094 211 19.834 0.702 – – – –
2006-8-15 0.170 253 43.010 0.936 – – – –
2006-7-5 0.175 138 24.150 0.000 – – – –
2006-8-20 0.040 314 12.560 0.000 – – – –
2007-7-10 0.110 100 11.000 3.666 – – – –
2007-7-30 0.063 230 14.490 0.000 – – – –
2007-9-17 0.027 877 23.591 0.702 – – – –
2007-7-25 0.110 153 16.830 20.046 – – – –
2007-9-14 0.040 486 19.440 0.000 – – – –
2007-7-25 0.052 861 44.772 20.046 – – – –
2007-7-24 0.038 474 18.012 4.914 – – – –
2008 7 1 0.048 690 32.900 0.000 – – – –
2008-7-5 0.029 1410 40.600 5.070 – – – –
2008-7-11 0.230 30 6.900 0.468 – – – –
2008-7-22 0.068 325 22.000 1.950 – – – –
2008-7-31 0.001 25,945 28.200 2.262 – – – –
2008-8-3 0.066 293 19.200 2.808 – – – –
2008-8-8 0.011 3392 37.800 15.054 – – – –

–, the data were not collected.

 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346
100.0
10.0
Intensity (mm/h)
1.0
0.1
0.1
Fig. 4. The relationship between rainfall duration/intensity and the 90%, 70% and 50% probability thresholds for the initiation of a debris flow event.
3. Data collection and manipulation
3.1. Precipitation data
Three rain-gauges were installed in JJG in 1993, one each in the
Menqian Gully and Duozhao Gully, and one at DCDFORS. These rain-
gauges provided high-resolution rainfall data (with a resolution of
0.1 mm in precipitation and 1 min in observation intervals). In 2002,
an additional six rain-gauges were installed; three at the same sites as
those previously indicated, and three in the Menqian Gully. Previous
studies (Wu et al., 1990; Cui et al., 2005; Hu et al., 2010; Guo et al.,
2013) have indicated that precipitation in the Menqian Gully is the
main trigger for debris flows in the JJG, due to the presence of unconsol-
idated, loose materials and debris flow initiation form shallow
landslides. Accordingly, data from the Mayiping Rain Gauge was used
as the main data source.
For a given setting, debris flows are typically triggered by a defined
set of rainfall conditions. These conditions may involve high rainfall
intensities over short durations and/or lower rainfall intensities
maintained over longer durations. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze
the relationships between debris flow and various rainfall parameters,
100
Curve 50%
Rainfall event (mm)
Curve 90%
Curve 70%
10
1
0 1
Fig. 5. The relationship between rainfall duration/event and the 90%, 70% and 50% probability thresholds, calculated using Eq. (3).
339
Curve 90%
Curve 70%
Curve 50%
D
A C
B
1.0 10.0 100.0
Duration (h)
such as intensity (I), duration (D), antecedent effect rainfall (AER),
and normalized intensity (I-normal).
The definition of a rainfall event has been discussed in other studies.
For example, Jan and Lee (2004) defined it to be no more than 4 mm of
rainfall within 1 h before the rainfall event, while Zhou and Tang (2013)
defined it as no more than 1 mm within 6 h before the rainfall event. As
discussed earlier, debris flows in the JJG are frequent and can be trig-
gered by low-intensity rainfall events. Accordingly, we defined a rainfall
event here as the precipitation measured from the beginning of a storm
to the occurrence of a debris flow. The beginning of a storm is defined as
the occurrence of no more than 0.1 mm rainfall during 3 h (or more)
prior to a storm. The rainfall event duration is defined as the time that
elapses from the beginning of a storm to the occurrence of a debris
flow. The intensity is defined as the total rainfall in the event divided
by the duration (Fig. 3).
Antecedent effective rainfall is defined here as the actual effect of
rainfall on soil water content prior to a rainfall event that triggered a
debris flow. However, the role of antecedent rainfall in triggering debris
flows diminishes to zero as the interval between the two increases, due
to soil water redistribution (infiltration) and evaporation processes
(Bruce and Clark, 1969; Ni et al., 2010; Li et al., 2011). Thus, the amount
D C
B
10 100
Duration (h)
340 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346

1.00
More frequently

Intensity (mm/h)
0.10

Very low frequently

0.01
1 10 100
Rainfall event (mm)

Fig. 6. The relationship between rainfall intensity and rainfall events.

of water infiltrating into hillslopes during a rainfall preceding a
landslide event can be referred to as the antecedent effective rainfall
for the debris flow event (Glade et al., 2000). Therefore, it is appropriate
to calculate this parameter, as it considers the actual contribution of
antecedent rainfall to debris flow occurrences. The antecedent effective
rainfall is commonly considered a function of the regressive rainfall
index and time (Bruce and Clark, 1969):
X
n
Re ¼ Ri K i
i¼1
where Re represents the antecedent effective rainfall (mm) that fell
during i days before the debris flow (or similar geological event)
occurred; K is the degressive index representing the outflow of the
regolith; Ri is the intraday rainfall before the debris flow occurred.
Eq. (1) calculates the antecedent effective rainfall via analysis of statistics,
and indicates the effective precipitation before a rainfall-triggered debris
flow. We used the soil moisture content attenuation rate to determine
the number of days preceding the debris flow occurrence. The data
used in this study confirm that the influence of rainfall diminishes and
eventually disappears with an increasing time interval (due to evapora-
tion), and has no appreciable influence on debris flow formation if 15
or more days have elapsed. Hence, the upper limit of n in Eq. (1) is 15.
The degressive index (K) has been previously studied by many re-
searchers; we used a value of 0.78 (Cui et al., 2008; Zhuang et al., 2009).
It should be noted that a normalized rainfall event is defined as the
rainfall divided by mean annual precipitation; normalized duration is
defined as the rainfall event duration divided by mean annual precipita-
tion; normalized mean intensity is defined as the mean intensity
divided by mean annual precipitation (Cannon, 1988; Jibson, 1989; De
Vita et al., 1998; Jakob and Weatherly, 2003). Finally, rainfall intensity
is defined as the rainfall duration (h) divided by the rainfall amount
(mm) (Cannon, 1988).
ð1Þ
3.2. Debris flow data
Since 1993, more than 70 debris flows have been recorded in the JJG.
However, the debris flows occurring in 2002, 2003, and 2005 were ex-
cluded from the dataset due to issues with rain-gauge data collection
during these years. Hence, only 60 debris flow events and correspond-
ing precipitation data were included for analysis. The data include the
date of each debris flow, debris flow peak discharge (Pd), debris flow
discharge (Di), sediment transport (St), debris flow density (De),
precipitation (with a resolution of 0.1 mm), rainfall duration (with a
resolution of 1 min), intensity, and effective antecedent rainfall before
each debris flow event (Table 1). We analyzed 47 debris flow occur-
rences in 1993, 1994, 1998–2001, 2004 and 2006 to determine our
thresholds. We then used 13 debris flows in the period 2007–2008 to
validate these thresholds.

100
More frequently
Rainfall event (mm)

10

Very low frequently

1
1 10 100
Antecedent effective rainfall (mm)

Fig. 7. The relationship between rainfall events and effective antecedent precipitation.
 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346 341

1.00

More frequently

Intensity (mm/h)
0.10

Very low frequently

0.01
1 10 100
Antecedent effective rainfall (mm)

Fig. 8. The relationship between rainfall intensity and effective antecedent precipitation.

4. Results
4.1. I–D threshold
Thresholds empirically derived from rainfall intensity–duration
have been widely used to identify rainfall conditions that result in the
occurrence of debris flows (Guzzetti et al., 2007, 2008; Baum and
Godt, 2010; Lee et al., 2013). Inspection of the I–D thresholds reveals
the general form:
I ¼ c þ αDβ
where I is (mean) rainfall intensity, D is rainfall duration, and c, α and β
are other parameters. For the majority of I–D thresholds, c = 0 and
Eq. (2) takes the form of a simple power law.To model the empirical
relationship between I and D, the two variables were plotted on a single
graph (Fig. 4), where D (x − axis) is the rainfall duration and I (y-axis)
is the rainfall intensity. About 70% of the storms that generated debris
flows in the JJG had a duration equal to or less than 6 h, with most
durations being 3 to 6 h.
Using Eq. (2), we calculated the best-fit line using the least squares
and medium-scale methods, and obtained the equation I = 15.87
D−0.5952. This equation uses median regression to empirically obtain
the corresponding median thresholds (curve 50% of the graph for
including 50% of the debris flow event points). It only demonstrates
the relationship between rainfall intensity and duration, and cannot
be used directly to forecast debris flows using only one probability
line (“yes” or “no” with respect to debris flow occurrences). Accordingly,
we calculated the 90% and 70% (curve 90%/70% of the graph for
including 90%/70% of the debris flow event points) probability curves
in the graph, corresponding to 90% and 70% of the debris flow event
ð2Þ
points, respectively (i.e. the lowest threshold line and the lowest medi-
an threshold line, respectively) (Fig. 4). The equations to calculate the
70% and 90% thresholds are I = 11.92 D−0.5952 and I = 7.27 D−0.5952,
respectively. The quadrant can be divided by the three thresholds into
four zones (A, B, C and D). Zone A is located below the lowest threshold
(90% curve) and represents a very low probability of debris flow. Zone B
is located between the lowest threshold line (90% curve) and lowest
median threshold line (70% curve), representing a relatively low
probability of a debris flow occurrence for points located between the
I and D curves. This would necessitate the release of a watch alert.

100.0 7 3

5
8
Intensity (mm/h)

10.0
4 1

10 2 9 6
50% Curve
70% Curve
This study Test data 1 90% Curve
1.0
2 3 4

5 6 7

8 9 90% Curve

70% Curve 10 50% Curve

0.1
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0
Duration (h)

Fig. 9. Comparison and validation of I–D thresholds (No. 1: Caine (1980); No. 2: Wieczorek (1987); Nos. 3, 4, 5: Jibson (1989); No. 6: Guadagno (1991); No. 7: Paronuzzi et al. (1998); No. 8:
Crosta and Frattini (2001); No. 9: Shieh et al. (2009); No. 10: Guo et al. (2013)).
342 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346

1000

Rainfall event (mm)

100 3

4
2

This data Test data

10
50% Curve 90% Curve
70% Curve 1
2 3
1 4

1
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0
Duration (h)

Fig. 10. Comparison and validation of RE–D thresholds (No. 1: Innes (1983); Nos. 2–3: Wilson et al. (1992); No. 4: Kanji et al. (2003)).

Zone C is located between the lowest median threshold line (70% curve) RE b 16 mm), using the 20% debris flow occurrence (P = 20%) curve.
and the median threshold line (50% curve), representing a fairly high This line marked the boundary between the frequent and infrequent
probability of debris flow occurrence. This would require the issuance categories.
of a warning alert. Zone D is located above the upper median threshold
line, indicating an extremely high probability of debris flow occurrence RE ¼ 17:45 D0:3042 for curve 50%
(Fig. 4). RE ¼ 13:98 D0:3042 for curve 70% ð3Þ
RE ¼ 8:12 D0:3042 for curve 90%
4.2. RE–D and RE–I thresholds

Besides the I–D threshold, thresholds based on events described by
total rainfall and rainfall duration (Campbell, 1975), named RE–D
thresholds (Cannon and Ellen, 1985), have also been utilized to predict
rainfall-induced debris flow. Caine (1980) also suggested certain the use
of global RE–I thresholds for debris flows using accumulate rainfall
event and rainfall intensity. The rainfall event required to trigger
landslides in the JJG varied from a minimum of 3.5 mm to a maximum
of 75 mm. As indicated in Fig. 5, the RE–D thresholds for different debris
flow occurrence probabilities is defined by the relationship between RE
and D. However, it is difficult to quantify the relationship between RE
and I (Fig. 6). The rainfall frequencies for different debris flow occur-
rence probabilities were classified in our study into frequent (I N 0.08
mm/min and RE N 16 mm) and infrequent (I b 0.08 mm/min and
4.3. I–AER and RE–AER thresholds
Soil moisture is a factor that predisposes slopes to failure and then
debris flow occurrences (Crozier, 1986; Wieczorek, 1996). In order to
understand the effect of soil moisture on debris flow occurrences, we
devised a simple method based on antecedent effective precipitation
to establish a threshold.
Relationships involving I–AER (Fig. 7) and RE–AER (Fig. 8) were
analyzed. The AER needed to trigger landslides in JJG varied from a
minimum of 12 mm to a maximum of 35 mm. Exploring more complex
relationships between the AER and the RE (I) threshold curves are
beyond the scope of this paper. The demarcation between frequent
and infrequent occurrences of debris flows can be defined (20%

0.10

2
3 1

6
I-Normal (mm)

8
5
0.01

This paper Test data 4

7
Curve 50% 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8
0.00
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0
Duration (h)

Fig. 11. The I-normal-D thresholds in the JJG and their comparison with other threshold models (Nos. 1–6: Jibson (1989); No. 7: Paronuzzi et al. (1998); No. 8: Wieczorek et al. (2000)).
 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346 343

Debris flow no-occurs therefore, the focus of these models is on minimizing these anomalies
(Guzzetti et al., 2008; Zhuang et al., 2014). In the future, this model
High Debris flow occurs High
Threshold line can be revised and calibrated by including data on subsequent debris
flows and precipitation.
Precipitation

Fig. 9 indicates a comparison of the debris flow threshold curves

Loose debris
proposed in different studies. In addition to significant variation in
their parameters, all except curves 4, 17 and 20 are higher than the
one we developed. Thresholds 4 and 17 were constructed based on
Precipitation Loose debris areas affected by wildfires, while threshold 20 was developed based
on the Chi–Chi earthquake (Shieh et al., 2009). As with the JJG, both
Low
Low areas are prone to debris flows at low precipitation thresholds, because
Time of the presence of abundant loose debris.
Fig. 9 indicates the various thresholds proposed for the JJG in
High Debris flow occurs High different studies. The I–D 90% threshold proposed by Guo et al. (2013)
Threshold line
(No. 21) is lower than the 90% threshold developed by us. The reason
Precipitation

Loess debris
for this discrepancy is that the definitions of rainfall events that
triggered debris flows are different. Guo et al. (2013) defined a sudden
Debris flow no-occurs change in rainfall as critical rainfall, and defined the rainfall duration
threshold as 1 h and 10 min. This was used as the basis for modeling
Precipitation in their study.
Fig. 10 indicates the four RE–D threshold curves that have been
Low Low proposed in different studies. Threshold curve 1, which is the lowest of
Time the four, is comparable to ours. Curve 2, developed in a study on volcanic
debris flows in Hawaii, is slightly higher than the 90% threshold curve
Fig. 12. Debris flow initiation characteristics (top: debris-limited; bottom: rainfall-limit- presented in our paper. The remaining two threshold curves are signifi-
ed). Revised from Bovis and Jakob (1999).
cantly higher than the ones presented here. Reviewing Figs. 9–10, it can
be concluded that the thresholds for debris flow occurrences vary signif-
probability), for AER–RE, as AER = 13.5 mm and RE = 19.5 mm, while icantly across local, regional and global scales, due to differences in geo-
for AER–I, it can be defined as AER = 12 mm and RE = 0.05 mm/min. logical, morphological and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary
to develop a unique model for each gully subject to major debris flows.

5. Discussion
5.1. Model testing and comparison
In order to verify the reliability and accuracy of the determined
thresholds and make necessary refinements, we used data from 13
debris flow events in the period 2007–2008 for model validation.
Fig. 9 indicates the model validation results using the I–D thresholds.
Eleven debris flows were located in the ‘B’ region and two were located
in the ‘C’ region. Fig. 10 indicates the model validation results using the
RE–D thresholds. Ten and two debris flows were located in the‘B’ and ‘C’
regions, respectively, while one was located in the ‘D’ region. The results
indicate that the RE–D threshold line is slightly more accurate than the
I–D threshold line in the JJG. The occurrence of false negatives and false
positives is not unprecedented in even highly accurate models;
5.2. Normalization threshold
As discussed, a limitation of local I–D thresholds is the fact that those
defined for a particular area with its unique climatic and geological
conditions cannot be easily implemented for surrounding areas
(Figs. 9 and 10). This is mainly due to differences in the rainfall param-
eters that trigger debris flows. To compare rainfall thresholds prepared
for different regions, several authors used the concept of normal or nor-
malized rainfall intensity, which is the rainfall intensity divided by the
mean annual precipitation (Cannon, 1988; Jibson, 1989; De Vita et al.,
1998; Jakob and Weatherly, 2003). In view of ongoing climate change,
we used a similar factor, albeit refined further by using annual precipi-
tation within the same year as the divisor. The generated relationship
is referred to as I-normal-D.

40 30
rainfall 10cm
20cm 30cm
25
40cm
30
Soil moisture (%)

20
Rainfall (mm)

20 15

10
10
5

0 0
6-23 7-1 7-6 7-10 7-19 7-25 8-5 8-9 8-13 8-21 8-25
Date

Fig. 13. Soil moisture at different soil depths, plotted against precipitation in the JJG in 2006.
344
12
Infiltrate rate (cm/min)
8
4
0
0 5
In order to verify whether the I-normal-D threshold was applicable
to other regions, we analyzed their relationship in the JJG and compared
it with previously presented models (Fig. 11). We observed the follow-
ing: (i) The I-normal-D curves vary significantly across studies; (ii) the
I-normal-D curves obtained in our study are lower than those presented
by other researchers; (iii) use of normalized thresholds cannot avoid
variability arising from geographical, morphological, geological, and
certain climatic factors, or variability tied to the amount of source
material distributed near and in the flow channels. Hence, the challenge
in extrapolating these thresholds to other locations remains.
The debris flows that typically occur in the JJG can be classified as
rainfall-limited flows. Debris flows initiated by landslides due to heavy
precipitation are different from those caused by bed failure due to
runoff, with different underlying mechanisms (Guzzetti et al., 2007,
2008; Gregoretti and Fontana, 2008; Zhuang et al., 2013). Debris flows
can be categorized as either rainfall-limited (mainly initiated by land-
slides) or debris-limited (mainly caused by bed failure due to runoff),
with different trigger factors. This is the case even when geographical,
morphological and climatic conditions are similar (Bovis and Jakob,
1999). The former is characterized by a practically unlimited sediment
supply and is triggered by a critical value of precipitation. However, in
the case of debris-limited flows, a substantial interval must elapse for
channel recharge and sediment supply to build up before the next
debris flow can occur. The initiation of such flows is affected by both
precipitation and debris supply (Fig. 12). In addition, the loose materials
0.7
0.6
0.5
Runoff /m3/s
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 0
8/1/09
J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346
20cm
wide-range and loose un-consolidate soil
10 15 20 25 30
Time (min)
Fig. 14. Infiltration rate within a landslide body in the JJG.
that characterize the two types of flows are different. This is yet another
reason why the rainfall thresholds that trigger debris flows are unique
to one or a few regions.
5.3. The effect of AER on debris flows in the JJG
Current literature on rainfall thresholds for predicting landslide
hazards suggests that there are two viewpoints regarding the selection
of appropriate precipitation parameters; one focuses on the rainfall in-
tensity (Guzzetti et al., 2007) and the other on the antecedent effective
rainfall (Cui et al., 2008). The influence of rainfall on landslides differs
substantially depending upon the landslide type and materials involved
(Guzzetti et al., 2008). Shallow failures are usually triggered by short,
intense storms, while deep-seated failures are triggered by long-term
antecedent effective rainfall (Li et al., 2008; Piacentini et al., 2012;
Chen et al., 2014). Debris flows can be initiated by either shallow or
deep-seated landslides. A study on tropical soils of Hong Kong revealed
that antecedent rainfall of any duration is not significant in the trigger-
ing process (Brand et al., 1984). On the other hand, a similar study in
Wellington, New Zealand, revealed that rainfall during antecedent
periods of up to 10 days influenced the soil moisture balance with
respect to triggering deep landslides (Crozier, 1999). This effect of ante-
cedent moisture may be related to regional climates, soil permeability
properties and the debris flow initiation type (shallow landslide, deep
landslide or run-off).
35
30
25
Rainfall/ mm
20
Base flow in JJG
15
10
5
8/5/09 8/9/09 8/13/09 8/17/09 8/21/09 8/25/09 8/29/09
Date
Fig. 15. Runoff in the JJG after a rainfall event in Aug. 2009.
 J. Zhuang et al. / Engineering Geology 195 (2015) 335–346
In the JJG, antecedent precipitation has been considered to be a
significant factor in the triggering of debris flows, according to other
researchers; the length of the effective antecedent precipitation period
is 15 to 20 days (Cui et al., 2005, 2008; Wu et al., 1990; Guo et al., 2013).
In this paper, we analyzed the I-AER (Fig. 7) and RE-AER (Fig. 8)
relationships, and found that the two were not well-correlated. Fig. 13
indicates the soil moisture at different soil depths, plotted against
precipitation in JJG in 2006. Soil moisture was measured by TDR
(Time-Domain Reflectometry) in a grassland near DCDFORS (see the
Fig. 2). Soil moisture was highly sensitive and responsive to precipita-
tion, with minimal lag effects. In addition, the water contents at
different depths varied in their responses to precipitation. Although
the water contents at depths of 10 cm and 20 cm were responsive,
those at depths of 30 and 40 cm were not. In addition, soil moisture
was strongly correlated to rainfall on the same day, with decreasing
correlation coefficients as the interval after the preceding rainfall
event lengthened. When the interval reached four days, soil moisture
tended to decrease to its original equilibrium value (Fig. 13). In other
words, elevated soil water content was present for only 4 days after a
rainfall event. Therefore, antecedent precipitation did not significantly
affect the soil water content.
Fig. 14 shows the water infiltration rate in a landslide body, measured
using a DRI (Double Ring Infiltrometer), within the Menqian Gully
(Fig. 2). The infiltration rate was observed to be high initially (up to 15
cm/min), and then decreased sharply to achieve a steady infiltration
rate of 0.4 cm/min. This value is higher than that observed in other
areas, probably because the JJG comprises loose, unconsolidated
materials and witnesses high evapotranspiration rates (3752.7 mm/y)
(Cui et al., 2005). Runoff in JJG in Aug. 2009 was measured by DCDFORS
using CSM (Cross-Section Measurement) (Fig. 15). That indicates that
the runoff response to precipitation was evident and rapid, increasing
sharply with precipitation and decreasing sharply after precipitation
terminated. Soil water content tended to decrease to the initial value
within days of the precipitation event.
The high infiltration rate indicates that the soil has little water-holding
capacity. This is due to insufficient vegetation cover and the prevalence of
coarse materials in the slope of the gully Infiltrating water converges as
underground water flow and flow away via macropores. Meanwhile,
debris flows in the JJG are primarily initiated by shallow landslides (Wu
et al., 1990; Cui et al., 2005; Chen et al., 2006a, 2006b; Hu et al., 2011).
These landslides can be triggered when an extended period of heavy
precipitation occurs, concurrent with a maximum depth of water
infiltration of 2 m in the slope body. Under such conditions, a shallow
landslide may progress into a debris flow. Therefore, the soil water
and run-off in the JJG is usually not independent of antecedent
precipitation.
6. Conclusion
In this study, we analyzed the rainfall conditions that triggered
debris flows in JJG in the past, in order to develop rainfall intensity–
duration thresholds and rainfall event–duration thresholds determining
the occurrence of debris flows in the JJG. These two thresholds were val-
idated using 2007–2008 debris flows and then compared with other
thresholds determined from around the world. Finally, the effects of
normalized precipitation and antecedent precipitation on debris flows
were discussed, with the following conclusions:
(1) The I–D and RE–D thresholds for the 50%, 70% and 90% probabil-
ities of debris flows were determined. Subsequently, four regions
corresponding to different warning levels were identified. These
thresholds are applicable in predicting future debris flows in the
JJG.
(2) The threshold curves proposed in other areas indicated in this
manuscript tend to be higher than the ones determined here,
and are therefore not applicable to the JJG.
345
(3) Although precipitation was normalized according to climatic
parameters, the normalized precipitation threshold curve cannot
be directly implemented to surrounding areas with similar
conditions, due to differences in topography.
(4) Debris flows in JJG are predominantly triggered by intraday
precipitation, while antecedent precipitation is not a significant
factor.
Acknowledgments
We are thankful to Prof. Hong Yong and Hu Kaiheng at the Institute
of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS for their valuable sugges-
tions and assistance with this study. The authors sincerely appreciate
the assistance with data collection provided by Dr. Lin Yongming, Dr.
Ge Yonggang and Dr. Zhu Xinghua from the Institute of Mountain
Hazards and Environment, CAS and Chen Wenbo from the CEE of the
PolyU of HongKong. We express special thanks to the staff of Dongchuan
Debris Flow Observation and Research Station of the Institute of Moun-
tain Hazards and Environment, CAS, for their cooperation. This work
was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (41202244) and the National Key Fundamental Research
Program of China (973) (2014CB744703).
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