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Asmita Chitnis
Abstract
Introduction
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) or portfolio theory was introduced by Harry
Markowitz with his paper "Portfolio Selection," which appeared in the 1952 Journal
of Finance.
Using diversification, Markowitz proposed that investors focus on selecting
36 Asmita Chitnis
Ri = αi + βi + ei (1)
Where,
Ri : expected return on security i
αi : intercept giving return on security when index return is zero
βi : slope which measures the change in the security return with respect to change
in the market return
Performance Evaluation of Two Optimal Portfolios by Sharpe’s Ratio 37
ei : error term with mean zero and a standard deviation which is constant.
This paper attempts to construct two optimal portfolios from two different
samples using Sharpe’s Single Index Model of Capital Asset Pricing and further to
compare the performance of these two portfolios by Sharpe’s Ratio.
For each security selected in the portfolio, expected return is then calculated using
equation (1). After selecting these securities in the portfolio, next step is to construct
an optimal portfolio.
The construction of an optimal Portfolio_1 is simplified if a single number
measures the desirability of including a security in the optimal portfolio. For Sharpe’s
Single Model, such a number exists. In this case, the desirability of any security is
( Ri − R f )
directly related to its excess return-to-beta ratio given by .
βi
Where,
Ri = expected return of stock i
R f = risk-free rate of return
β i = beta of stock i
So, excess return-to-beta ratio is calculated for each security in the portfolio and
securities are ranked in descending order of magnitude according to their excess
return-to-beta ratio. Further, the number of stocks selected in the optimum portfolio
depends on a unique cutoff rate C* such that all stocks with excess return-to-beta
ratios greater than this unique cutoff C*are included and all stocks with lower ratios
excluded.
The value of C* is computed from the characteristics of all securities that belong
in the optimum portfolio. To determine C* it is necessary to calculate its value as if
different numbers of securities were in the optimum portfolio. For a portfolio of i
stocks, Ci is given by:
m (R − R )β
σm∑
2 i f i
i =1 σ ei2
Ci= (2)
i
β i2
1+σ m ∑ 2
2
i =1 σ ei
Where,
σ m2 = variance in the market
38 Asmita Chitnis
σ ei2 = variance of a security’s movement that is not associated with the movement
of the market index; this is the stock’s unsystematic risk.
Definition of all remaining symbols being the same as explained before.
Over establishing the cutoff rate C*, investor knows which securities are qualified
for the optimum portfolio and hence the optimum Portfolio_1 is constructed using
qualified securities.
Once an optimum Portfolio_1 is constructed, next step is to calculate the
percentage invested in each security in the optimum portfolio. The percentage
invested in ith security is denoted by X i and is calculated using the expression
Zi
Χi = N
(3)
∑Z
j =1
j
Where:
β i Ri − R f
Ζi = ( − C*)
σ ei2 βi
Where:
C * = cutoff rate
Ri = expected return of stock i
R f = risk-free rate of return
β i = beta of stock i
σ ei2 =unsystematic risk of stock i
Thus, the above expression determines the relative investment in each security.
Finally, expected return of the optimum portfolio R P and variance σ 2p is
calculated using the following two equations;
N
RP = ∑ X i (α i + β i I )
i =1
N
i.e. RP = ∑ X i Ri (4)
i =1
( Ri − R f )
(6)
σP
Where,
Ri = expected return of stock i
R f = risk-free rate of return and
σ P =Standard Deviation of the portfolio return
Analysis
For constructing two different portfolios, two different samples of size 26 each are
selected from the securities listed on National Security Exchange (refer Appendix).
Thus, securities listed on National Security Exchange constitute the population.
S&P CNXNIFTY is taken as the market index
Monthly closing prices and returns are considered for the selected securities in
each sample from 1st April, 2004 to 31st March 2009. Similar data are collected for
S&P CNXNIFTY for the same period.
This data are collected from www.nseindia.com and also from Prowess Client
Database.
The risk free return is considered to be 6% p.a.
The following Table 1.1 shows data on 26 securities, selected in sample_1.
Table 1.1: Alpha, Beta, Expected return, Risk and Excess Return to Beta Ratio-
sample_1.
Security Name Beta β Alpha α Expected 2 Syst. Risk Total Unsyst. Excess
Return β Risk Risk Return to
Beta Ratio
ABB 1.12 0.97 24.14 1.25 88.95 179.20 90.25 16.21
ACC 0.83 0.87 18.16 0.70 49.49 137.69 88.20 14.57
Allahabad Bank 0.90 -0.15 18.57 0.82 58.11 174.53 116.42 13.90
Bank of Baroda 1.19 -0.58 24.11 1.42 101.06 198.63 97.57 15.19
HDFC Bank 0.97 1.43 21.46 0.94 66.52 96.27 29.75 15.98
ITC 0.71 1.18 15.81 0.50 35.45 78.48 43.03 13.89
Infosys 0.44 1.42 10.55 0.19 13.82 74.86 61.03 10.32
LNT 1.23 0.96 26.33 1.50 106.66 156.80 50.15 16.59
PNB 1.07 0.20 22.43 1.15 81.88 198.12 116.24 15.31
RIL 1.00 2.06 22.85 1.01 71.63 109.45 37.82 16.79
40 Asmita Chitnis
Security Name Beta β Alpha α Expected 2 Syst. Risk Total Unsyst. Excess
Return β Risk Risk Return to
Beta Ratio
Satyam 0.55 -1.29 10.08 0.30 21.41 184.98 163.57 7.43
SBI 1.18 0.50 24.92 1.39 98.80 176.21 77.40 16.04
WIPRO 0.74 0.02 15.35 0.55 38.96 83.02 44.06 12.63
Axis Bank 1.07 1.26 23.41 1.14 81.30 172.43 91.13 16.28
Bharti Airtel 0.78 1.62 17.71 0.60 42.89 75.26 32.37 15.07
CMC 0.89 -0.56 17.91 0.80 56.50 263.80 207.30 13.35
IOC 1.05 -0.74 21.02 1.10 78.47 214.69 136.22 14.29
M&M 0.91 0.73 19.51 0.82 58.44 111.61 53.16 14.90
Maruti 0.81 0.57 17.37 0.66 46.80 117.23 70.42 14.01
ONGC 1.08 -0.05 22.41 1.18 83.62 119.62 36.00 15.13
Reliance Infra 1.56 -1.39 30.93 2.44 173.15 293.15 120.00 15.97
Tata Motors 1.25 -2.05 23.93 1.57 111.87 170.00 58.13 14.29
Tata Tea 0.79 0.35 16.73 0.63 44.47 103.12 58.66 13.57
Corpo.Bank 1.14 -1.54 22.06 1.30 92.32 222.52 130.20 14.09
SAIL 1.30 1.41 28.24 1.68 119.29 230.40 111.10 17.17
Tata Steel 1.58 -0.61 32.01 2.48 176.31 270.31 94.00 16.51
It can be seen from Table 1.1 that all the securities selected in sample_1, have
expected return above the risk free return of 6%. So, all the securities are further
considered for constructing the optimal portfolio using Sharpe’s Model.
Further, we use equation (2) to establish unique cutoff C*.
Table 1.2 shows ranking of securities in portfolio_1 based on excess return-to-beta
ratio and calculation of unique cutoff point C*.
Table1.2: Ranking of securities and establishing a cutoff rate C* for portfolio_1 with
σ m2 = 71.06.
Security Name ( Ri − R f ) ( Ri − R f ) β i β i2 j ( Ri − R f ) β i j
β i2 C
βi σ 2
σ ei2
∑
i =1 σ 2 ∑
i =1 σ ei
2
ei ei
SAIL 17.167 0.259 0.015 0.259 0.015 8.889
RIL 16.785 0.447 0.027 0.707 0.042 12.658
LNT 16.591 0.497 0.030 1.203 0.072 14.031
Tata Steel 16.511 0.436 0.026 1.639 0.098 14.614
Axis Bank 16.278 0.204 0.013 1.844 0.111 14.782
ABB 16.214 0.225 0.014 2.068 0.125 14.925
SBI 16.044 0.288 0.018 2.357 0.142 15.054
HDFC Bank 15.982 0.503 0.031 2.860 0.174 15.209
Reliance Infra 15.971 0.324 0.020 3.184 0.194 15.283
PNB 15.307 0.152 0.010 3.336 0.204 C*=15.284
Bank of Baroda 15.186 0.221 0.015 3.557 0.219 15.278
ONGC 15.129 0.494 0.033 4.051 0.251 15.260
Performance Evaluation of Two Optimal Portfolios by Sharpe’s Ratio 41
Security Name ( Ri − R f ) ( Ri − R f ) β i β i2 j ( Ri − R f ) β i j
β i2 C
βi σ ei2 σ ei2
∑i =1 σ ei2
∑
i =1 σ ei
2
It can be observed from Table 1.2 that the unique cutoff has been derived as
15.284. Thus, only 10 securities having excess return to beta ratio above 15.284 are
qualified to the optimum portfolio_1.
After construction of optimal portfolio_1, we find the percentage invested in each
of these 10 securities using the equation (3) given above.
Table 1.3 below, exhibits the optimum portfolio of ten securities and the
percentage invested in each security.
After finding the percentage invested in each of these 10 securities using the
equation (3), expected return and variance of the optimum portfolio_1 is calculated
using equation (4) and (5).
Table 1.4 below gives calculations for expected return and variance of the
optimum portfolio_1
Table 1.4: Calculations of expected return and variance of the optimum portfolio_1
Zi X i Ri X i βi X i2 X i2 σ ei2
Security Name Xi = N
∑Z j =1
j
Table 2.4 gives the calculations for expected return and variance of the optimum
portfolio_2.
Table 2.4: Calculations of expected return and variance of the optimum portfolio_2
Zi X i Ri X i βi X i2 X i2 σ ei2
Security Name Xi = N
∑Z
j =1
j
Further, portfolio return and risk are calculated using the expressions (4) and (5).
And lastly, Sharpe’s ratio is used to compare the performance of the two optimal
portfolios given by expression (6).
Findings
• Both the optimum portfolios thus constructed are largely diversified as
securities in the individual portfolio represent different sectors of the
economy-Cement, Banking, Financial Institutions, Capital Goods, Commodity
etc.
• From Table 1.2, and Table 2.2 it is observed that the cutoff rate C* for the first
Portfolio_1 is 15.284 as against 15.236 of portfolio_2 which is almost the
same.
• The optimum portfolio variances have been observed to be quite high,
signaling the fact that during the period of the study, the markets were in a
major uptrend with high amount of volatility. But, the variability for both the
optimal portfolios is substantially less than the variability of any of the
individual stocks in the portfolio.
• Expected return on portfolio_1 is 25.63 % and that on portfolio_2 is 28.14 %.
44 Asmita Chitnis
The variability in the return is 108.5483 for Portfolio_1 and 131.518 for the
Portfolio_2. That is, return as well as risk (variability) is less for Portfolio_1 as
compared to Portfolio_2.
• Sharpe’s ratio as a measure of performance evaluation for the Portfolio_1 and
Portfolio_2 work out to be 1.884527 and 1.930694 respectively.
Conclusion
• Individual securities, as we have seen, have risk-return characteristics of their
own. Portfolios, which are combinations of securities, tend to spread risk over
many securities and thus help to reduce the overall risk involved.
• If we try to conclude about the risk involved, then Portfolio_1 outperforms
Portfolio_2 as its variability in return is less as compared to that of
Portfolio_2. Investor with less risk appetite will definitely prefer Portfolio_1
with less risk- less return. If the decision is taken solely on the basis of
expected return on the portfolio, then Portfolio_2 becomes the preferred
choice.
• But, a more comprehensive measure of performance evaluation of the
Portfolio_1 is given by Sharpe’s ratio. The greater the portfolio’s Sharpe’s
ratio, the better is its performance. From the above analysis, it can be
concluded that in spite of having greater variability, Portfolio_2 is the
preferred portfolio between the two portfolios under study as Sharpe’s ratio
for Portfolio_2 is greater than that for Portfolio_1.
• This method of construction of optimal portfolio and further evaluation of its
performance is very effective and convenient as revision of the optimal
portfolio can be an on going exercise. The existence of a cutoff rate is also
extremely useful because most new securities that have an excess return-to-
beta ratio above the cutoff rate can be included in the optimal portfolio.
References
[1] Sharpe, William F. 1963. A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis,
Management Science 9: 227-293.
[2] Markowitz, Harry M. 1952. Portfolio Selection, Journal of Finance 7: 77-91.
[3] Jorion (2007), Value at Risk, McGraw Hill, U.S.A.
[4] Fischer, Donald E., and Ronald J. Jordan (2000), Security Analysis and
Portfolio Management, Prentice Hall, India
[5] Elton, Gruber (1991), Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, John
Wiley Series in Finance, Singapore
[6] Prasanna Chandra (2008), Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management,
Tata McGraw Hill, India
Performance Evaluation of Two Optimal Portfolios by Sharpe’s Ratio 45
Appendix
Portfolio_1 Portfolio_2
Security Name Security Name
ABB Grasim
ACC BHEL
Allahabad Bank BASF India
Bank of Baroda Bata India
HDFC Bank Hindalco
ITC ICICI Bank
Infosys Indian Overseas Bank
Larsen and Toubro Siemens
PNB Tata Chemicals
RIL Ambuja Cement
Satyam Balarampur Chini
SBI Bharat Electronics
WIPRO Bharar Forge
Axis Bank Bharat Pertoleum
Bharti Airtel Cipla
CMC Zee Entertainment
IOC Bharat Gears
M&M Britannia
Maruti Colgate
ONGC Cummins
Reliance Infra Dena Bank
Tata Motors Federal Bank
Tata Tea Indian Hotels
Corporation Bank Sesa Goa
SAIL Titan Ind
Tata Steel HDFC
Table 2.1: Alpha, Beta, Expected return, Risk and Excess Return to Beta Ratio-
sample_2
Security Name Beta Alpha Expected 2 Syst. Total Unsyst. Excess Ret to
β α Return β Risk Risk Risk Beta Ratio
Grasim -0.34 1.16 23.78 1.36 96.38 180.93 84.55 15.26
BHEL 2.28 1.12 25.40 1.25 88.63 153.17 64.54 17.37
BASF India 0.47 0.55 11.91 0.31 21.71 103.85 82.14 10.70
Bata India 0.71 1.37 29.10 1.88 133.59 307.91 174.31 16.85
Hindalco -1.79 1.37 26.54 1.87 133.05 195.94 62.89 15.01
ICICI Bank -0.05 1.28 26.37 1.63 115.74 180.60 64.86 15.96
Indian Overseas Bank -0.85 1.06 21.20 1.13 80.57 197.74 117.18 14.27
Siemens 0.53 1.49 31.47 2.23 158.63 269.20 110.57 17.05
Tata Chemicals -0.40 1.17 23.78 1.36 96.92 166.33 69.41 15.23
Ambuja Cement 0.15 0.90 18.77 0.81 57.43 128.92 71.49 14.20
Balarampur Chini 1.17 1.49 31.99 2.22 157.45 405.60 248.15 17.46
Bharat Electronics 0.24 1.03 21.53 1.06 75.12 161.77 86.65 15.10
Bharar Forge -1.30 1.12 21.85 1.25 88.84 170.46 81.61 14.18
Bharat Pertoleum -1.03 1.03 20.37 1.07 75.86 238.17 162.31 13.90
46 Asmita Chitnis
Security Name Beta Alpha Expected 2 Syst. Total Unsyst. Excess Ret to
β α Return β Risk Risk Risk Beta Ratio
Cipla 1.41 0.61 14.09 0.38 26.65 98.42 71.76 13.21
Zee Entertainment 0.68 0.72 15.59 0.52 36.84 140.70 103.86 13.31
Bharat Gears 0.18 0.89 18.53 0.79 55.82 422.78 366.96 14.14
Britannia 1.18 0.38 8.95 0.14 10.02 61.05 51.03 7.87
Colgate 2.40 0.45 11.63 0.20 14.13 68.06 53.92 12.63
Cummins 0.16 0.89 18.56 0.79 56.08 132.45 76.38 14.14
Dena Bank -0.04 1.12 23.22 1.26 89.71 204.43 114.71 15.33
Federal Bank -0.59 0.62 12.24 0.38 27.30 167.69 140.39 10.07
Indian Hotels -0.92 1.02 20.15 1.03 73.52 130.10 56.58 13.91
Sesa Goa 3.28 1.44 33.13 2.08 147.70 306.56 158.87 18.82
Titan Ind 2.98 0.98 23.28 0.96 68.23 205.80 137.57 17.63
HDFC 1.24 1.02 22.27 1.03 73.35 124.17 50.81 16.02
Table 2.2 Ranking of securities and establishing a cutoff rate C* for portfolio_2 with
σ m2 = 71.06
Security Name ( Ri − R f ) ( Ri − R f ) β i β i2 j ( Ri − R f ) β i j
β i2 C
βi σ ei2 σ ei2
∑i =1 σ ei2
∑
i =1 σ ei
2