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3QFY19 CMIE capex data – Election impact but quality improves
INDIA | Sector Update 3 January 2019
CMIE recently published its India capex data for 3QFY19. Key highlights:
New announcements down 48% yoy / 46% qoq: New projects announced in 3QFY19, at Rs
1.1tn, were down 48% yoy (46% qoq) despite a low base last year. However, unlike prior
Jonas Bhutta (+ 9122 6246 4119)
quarters the quality of projects have improved as we could not identify any major projects jbhutta@phillipcapital.in
that are not likely to see the light of day. Manufacturing (Rs 334bn ‐ chemicals Rs 145bn,
metals Rs 46bn, and textile Rs 42bn), power generation (Rs 321bn), real estate (Rs 242bn), Vikram Rawat (+ 9122 6246 4120)
vrawat@phillipcapital.in
and transport services (Rs 118bn ‐ roads Rs 58bn and railways Rs 30bn), accounted for 88%
of these new announcements. By ownership, the private sector accounted for 56% (vs. 62%
in December 2017 / September 2018) of the new announcements. Key projects announced
in 3Q include: Taloja (PMAY) affordable housing project, CIDCO (Rs 180bn), SECI's 2.4GW
renewable power projects (Rs 150bn), NTPC's 1.2GW solar project in Western India (Rs
78bn), Vedanta's Dhamra caustic soda plant (Rs 65bn), Hindalco's Lapanga aluminium
product unit (Rs 40bn), Grasim's viscose staple fibre unit in Andhra Pradesh (Rs 40bn) and
Titan's multi‐location Tanishq stores (Rs 40bn).
Projects completed in 3QFY19: These declined 30% yoy / 14% qoq to Rs 830bn. Key sectors
where projects commissioning was weak include metals (Rs 16bn, ‐95% yoy), power
generation (Rs 81bn, ‐51%), fertilizer (Rs nil vs. Rs 60bn), and Power T&D (Rs 8.5bn, ‐86%).
Major projects commissioned include Emmar MGF's Mohali Hills township (Rs 160bn),
Kundli‐Manesar‐Palwal expressway, Haryana (Rs 64bn), Bogibeel rail‐cum‐road bridge (Rs
59bn), Rewa ultra mega solar power project (Rs 45bn), DMRC's Badarpur‐Faridabad metro
line (Rs 31bn), and Statue of Unity, Gujarat (Rs 30bn).
Stalled projects though down yoy but rose qoq: ‘Projects that are under implementation,
but stalled’ declined 6% yoy (but grew by 2% qoq) to Rs 11.8tn. Stalled projects account for
10.8% of the projects under implementation. These increased in railways (+116% qoq due to
Pathankot‐Mandi railway project) and coal mining (+9%) while they declined in road (‐3%).
Reasons for stalling are changing: ‘Other issues’ (40% of stalled projects vs. 28% in March
2014), promoter‐related issues (19% vs. 14%), and lack of environment clearance (6% vs.
4%) are now key reasons for projects stalling.
Our take: Weak announcement on a low base‐ election impact
In our opinion the sharp decline in project announcements was due mainly to the impact of
recent elections in three state coupled with the upcoming general elections in May 2019.
Hence we expect elections to impact new announcements even in 1HCY19. In 3Q, the
quality of announcements was better as projects with low‐visibility were nil vs. 9% yoy. The
key highlight for us is the early signs of revival in large projects in the private sector. Data for
2QFY19 was revised upwards with the addition of Rs 270bn Reliance Industries expansion in
Jamnagar followed by projects announcements by Hindalco, Grasim and Tata Chemicals in
3Q. Even though we would still reserve our judgment on the revival of the capex cycle
nonetheless this is now a key moniterable alongwith starting of stalled projects.
Summary: December 2018 Rs bn yoy (%) qoq (%)
New projects announced 1,154 ‐48% ‐46%
Less: Low visibility projects ‐ ‐ ‐
New projects announced (adjusted) 1,154 ‐43% ‐28%
Cumulative projects announced 48,108 ‐14% ‐11%
Cumulative projects under implementation 1,08,746 4% 2%
Stalled 11,789 ‐6% 2%
Stalled % of under implementation 10.8%
Completed 830 ‐30% ‐14%
Projects Outstanding 1,85,107 ‐4% ‐2%
Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates
Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
CAPITAL GOODS AND ENGINEERING SECTOR UPDATE
Adjusted for projects with limited visibility, new projects fell 48% yoy and 46% qoq 88% of these new announcements were:
New projects announced (Rs bn) Change (% yoy)
Adjusted Change (% yoy) Manufacturing (Rs 334bn ‐ chemicals Rs
12,000 300% 145bn, metals Rs 46bn and textile Rs 42bn)
Power generation (Rs 321bn)
250%
10,000 Real estate (Rs 242bn)
200% Transport services (Rs 118bn ‐ roads Rs 58bn
8,000 and railways Rs 30bn)
150%
6,000 100% Key projects:
• CIDCO, Maharashtra Taloja (PMAY)
50%
4,000 affordable housing project (Rs 180bn)
0% • SECI's 2.4GW renewable projects (Rs
2,000 150bn ‐ solar Rs 78bn & wind Rs 72bn)
‐50%
• NTPC's 1.2GW solar PV project in
0 ‐100% Western India (Rs 78bn)
• Vedanta's Dhamra caustic soda &
Dec‐95
Dec‐96
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chemical plant (Rs 65bn)
• Hindalco's Lapanga aluminium product
unit (Rs 40bn)
• Grasim viscose staple fibre unit in
Andhra Pradesh (Rs 40bn)
Cumulative projects under implementation are 4% higher yoy at Rs 108.7bn • Titan multi‐location Tanishq brand
stores (Rs 40bn)
Projects under implementation (Rs bn) Change (% yoy)
120,000 60%
50%
100,000
40%
80,000
30%
60,000 20%
10%
40,000
0%
20,000
‐10%
0 ‐20%
Dec‐95
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Dec‐00
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Dec‐15
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Dec‐17
Dec‐18
Stalled projects account for 10.8% of projects under implementation
Projects that are stalled declined 6%
14,000 Projects stalled (Rs bn) % of under implementation 14% yoy but rose 2% qoq to Rs 11.8tn
12,000 12%
Top‐5 projects accounted for 16% of
the stalled projects, which are:
10,000 10%
• Go Air's acquisition of 72 aircrafts (Rs
544bn)
8,000 8%
• Aamby Valley Township, Sahara India
6,000 6% (Rs 390bn)
• Bellary steel plant, Uttam Galva (Rs
4,000 4% 360bn)
• JSW's Barenda steel & captive power
2,000 2% phase‐2 project (Rs 350bn)
• Kopta (Raigad) SEZ project (Rs 300bn)
0 0%
Dec‐95
Dec‐96
Dec‐97
Dec‐98
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Dec‐00
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Dec‐15
Dec‐16
Dec‐17
Dec‐18
Source: PhillipCapital India Research
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CAPITAL GOODS AND ENGINEERING SECTOR UPDATE
Reasons for projects stalling ‐ environment clearance and other issues
Ministerial bottlenecks Promoter interest
Dec‐18 8% Market conditions Others
100%
13%
35%
28% 33%
80% 41% 41% 43% 40%
6% 8% 3%
60% 13%
14% 5% 6% 8%
6% 8%
15% 17%
40% 18% 19%
5%
15%
0%
7% 4% 50% 51%
Unfavourable market conditions Raw mat supply problem 20% 39% 37%
30% 33%
Lack of clearances (non‐enviro) Lack of enviro clearance
Lack of funds Lack of promoter interest
Land acquisition problem Natural calamity 0%
Not available Others Mar‐14 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Mar‐17 Mar‐18 Dec‐18
Completed projects were down 30% yoy / 14% qoq
Projects completed (Rs bn) Change (% yoy) Projects worth Rs 830bn were
3,000 200%
completed during 3QFY19
2,500 150% Key sectors which dragged growth:
• Metals (Rs 16bn vs. 332bn, ‐95% yoy),
2,000 100% • Power generation (Rs 81bn vs. Rs
163bn, ‐51%)
1,500 50% • Fertilizer (nil vs. Rs 60bn)
• Power T&D (Rs 8.5bn vs. 59bn, ‐86%)
1,000 0%
Major sectors which seen significant rise
in completed projects include:
500 ‐50% • Real estate (Rs 221bn, 146%) led by
Emmar's Mohali Hills township (Rs
0 ‐100% 160bn)
• Railways (Rs 104bn, +344%) led by
Dec‐95
Dec‐96
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Dec‐00
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Dec‐18
Bogibeel bridge (Rs 59bn) and DMRC's
Badarpur‐Faridabad metro line phase
‐3 (Rs 31bn)
Shelved projects declined 98% yoy / 80% qoq to Rs 13bn
1,000 Projects shelved (Rs bn) Change (% yoy) 1400%
900 1200%
800
1000%
700
600 800%
500 600%
400 400%
300
200%
200
100 0%
0 ‐200%
Dec‐95
Dec‐96
Dec‐97
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Dec‐99
Dec‐00
Dec‐01
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Dec‐14
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Dec‐17
Dec‐18
Source: PhillipCapital India Research
Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
CAPITAL GOODS AND ENGINEERING SECTOR UPDATE
Cumulative projects outstanding is now at Rs 185tn, down 4% yoy / 2% qoq
250,000 Projects outstanding (Rs bn) Change (% yoy) 60%
50%
200,000
40%
150,000 30%
100,000 20%
10%
50,000
0%
0 ‐10%
Dec‐95
Dec‐96
Dec‐97
Dec‐98
Dec‐99
Dec‐00
Dec‐01
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Dec‐10
Dec‐11
Dec‐12
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Dec‐15
Dec‐16
Dec‐17
Dec‐18
Source: PhillipCapital India Research
New project announced ‐ Sector‐wise summary
(Rs bn) FY00‐04 FY05‐09 FY10‐14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19‐YTD FY15‐19
Conventional power 4,903 27,500 17,591 2,412 1,573 528 343 280 5,136
Renewable power 240 724 4,091 2,612 1,485 1,169 2,101 906 8,273
Power gen 5,143 28,225 21,682 5,024 3,058 1,697 2,444 1,186 13,409
Power T&D 273 593 2,122 697 319 173 42 48 1,278
Power 5,416 28,817 23,804 5,721 3,376 1,870 2,485 1,234 14,687
Coal & lignite 616 976 589 170 68 75 22 6 340
Crude oil & natural gas 327 969 1,191 292 72 103 ‐ ‐ 467
Petroleum products 550 3,121 3,917 305 1,782 887 467 308 3,749
Natural gas distribution 601 989 1,148 217 200 54 70 56 598
Oil & gas 1,478 5,079 6,256 814 2,053 1,045 538 364 4,814
Roads 1,729 4,328 5,561 1,672 2,495 2,384 1,734 322 8,608
Railways 375 4,576 9,178 2,775 2,584 1,265 689 64 7,377
Airport Infra 317 1,003 344 23 135 254 158 111 681
Ports 628 2,030 1,450 695 444 529 61 26 1,756
Water & irrigation 1,050 1,379 1,583 594 401 673 311 155 2,134
Infrastructure 4,099 13,316 18,115 5,758 6,060 5,105 2,953 679 20,556
Housing construction 213 5,198 4,963 726 756 747 615 414 3,257
Commercial complexes 715 5,806 1,694 240 162 313 223 84 1,023
Real estate 928 11,004 6,657 966 918 1,060 838 498 4,280
Hotels, hospitals, education etc 1,208 5,001 5,708 1,675 1,462 485 475 270 4,366
Metals 870 12,478 8,250 1,346 628 1,358 485 475 4,293
Cement 122 1,653 2,442 227 155 305 205 147 1,039
Electronics 74 1,512 797 363 1,378 82 171 93 2,088
Chemicals 590 1,600 1,165 495 833 228 337 222 2,115
Auto 296 1,042 1,325 193 242 231 243 69 978
F&B 231 773 852 159 324 305 161 97 1,046
Textiles 163 917 540 45 120 152 178 60 554
Pharma 102 343 326 102 65 56 60 39 321
Fertilisers 165 268 954 208 171 222 ‐ 0 601
Telecom 282 2,214 711 83 38 582 44 0 747
IT 452 2,235 1,028 118 140 151 22 85 515
Others 1,038 4,454 4,793 850 1,120 1,094 1,186 369 4,620
Total ex‐Air transport 17,515 92,707 83,722 19,123 19,083 14,332 10,382 4,700 67,620
Air transport services ‐ 2,046 1,669 1,500 ‐ 1,249 345 1,528 4,621
Total 17,515 94,753 85,392 20,623 19,083 15,581 10,726 6,228 72,241
Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH
CAPITAL GOODS AND ENGINEERING SECTOR UPDATE
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BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price
NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%
SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.
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