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Taxes collection fell for the first time since 2009-2009, and will miss targets by 1.5-2%. We expect a gradual recovery with fiscal and
monetary support. With a nominal GDP of 6% which is below a 10 year Government security yield, would translate into below target
government revenue. Going into 2020, GDP prints may improve, as by 1QFY21 government spending would pick up.
Among portfolio holdings, PNC Infra, a leading infrastructure player, was up 14.6% on back of strong execution, revenue beat by 21%
on back of strong order book. We expect to see an earnings acceleration as the economy bottoms out. RBL Bank, was up 11.2% in
November, as the capital raising will lower the bank’s stressed assets and provide growth capital for next two years. ICICI Bank, was
up 10.7%. On resolution of Essar Steel, bank was one of the biggest beneficiaries as provided 100% on the exposure leading to write-
back of provision to the extent of 85%. Due to landmark judgment on Essar Steel by SC, ICICI Bank became well positioned to take
market share among the peers. Tata Global Beverages, was up 1.9% in November. It appears that the company has multiple levers,
and turning around certain divisions. Starbucks is expected to breakeven in FY20. Chalet Hotel, a hotel company, was up 9%. High
occupancy of 74%+ in core locations, bodes well in an up-trending industry cycle. Chalet is the largest partner for Marriott in India,
14% of Marriott India’s total Room Inventory and 25%+ of Marriott India’s revenue. Exide, India’s leading battery manufacturer was
up 1%. A rise of 6% in lead prices coupled with weak volume growth across the OEM’s resulted in Exide performance being subdued.
During the quarter EBITDA margin missed expectation by 30 bps as higher staff costs.
Ircon International, a leading turnkey construction company in public sector was down 2.7%, despite of strong Q2 execution. Clarity
on competitive bidding is required for govt. orders, which is expected in the coming months. SBI Life Insurance, was down 3.2%. For
the monthly growth numbers related to October’19. We believe this temporary. RVNL, an undertaking under Ministry of Railways, a
miniratna company, was down 1.2%. No major order book wins during Q2 coupled with sluggish government spending weighed on
the stock performance. So far Ministry of Railways has transferred 179 projects, out of which 174 projects are sanctioned for execution.
Out of these, 72 projects have been fully executed totalling to Rs206bn. Its order book as of 2QFY19 stood at Rs775bn (10x of FY18
revenue) for 102 ongoing projects. KEI, a leading player in Industrial cables segment was down by 12% MoM. Weakness in the stock
performance was largely owning to slow dealer sales, reflecting liquidity constraints and an overall lower demand. While KEI’s B2B
growth remains strong, a pickup in retail sales growth along are key triggers ahead.
Portfolio Outlook:
Against the backdrop of a yet to recover economy, we are positioning the fund across market capitalization where we see emerging
growth, and companies with recovering balance sheets, growing profits faster than their sector averages. The recent corporate tax
cut provides a buffer to falling profits. Inflation may tick up against this backdrop, though some of it one time in nature such as a 25-
40% increase in mobile per minute calling rates. RBI has room to cut a further 65bp and as the credit deposit ratio gap lessens, and
transmission of rates would help corporates breathe easier, we are likely to see a significant pick of private placement activity as the
pipeline of QIPS is robust at Rs. 82,768 crores.
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the offering as set out in detail in such documents, including the merits and risks involved. In view of the particularized nature of tax consequences, each prospective investor is advised to consult
its own tax advisor with respect to specific tax consequences arising due to the investment in the Fund. SEBI Registration details IN/AIF3/17-18/0324