Reservoir Management
Revolutionising the
Prediction of Reservoir
Performance
Coupling deep learning methods with dynamic reservoir models can
result in tremendous time saving and more reliable production forecasts.
Reservoir models are vitally important in the oil and gas
industry, for example for estimating remaining oil and gas
reserves and providing production forecasts. Managing the
operational and financial performance of an E&P asset is
also heavily dependent upon having access to a current and
reliable prediction of the dynamic reservoir behaviour. All
this information is crucial for creating development and
operational plans and providing an auditable cash flow to
shareholders. It is therefore important to have an up-to-date
and accurate reservoir model.
However, E&P asset operators have an issue, in that their
optimum history matched dynamic reservoir models are
becoming quickly out-of-date and ‘dormant’, due to the length
of time it takes to update models. This means that frequent
model updates are simply unaffordable. Engineers therefore
often resort to using simpler approximation models to
forecast production and remaining reserves, as these methods
are faster and cheaper to use, although at the price of losing
prediction accuracy.
This industry dilemma led engineers and scientists of
the international technology and services company Target
Energy Solutions to develop a new hybrid modelling method
that couples conventional simulation with modern machine
learning, thereby combining engineering knowledge of
Graphic describing the high-level workflow.
56 GEOExPro March 2020
scenarios in minutes, all based on the experience of the asset’s 400 (a)
MEERA Al
petroleum engineers. A reservoir model that is constantly 350
Simulator
being updated has the major advantage of allowing reliable
Observed
maps of remaining hydrocarbons to be made, which can then
Oil Production Rate (sm3/day)
300
be used to select optimum infill drilling locations. It also 250
helps to provide stable and auditable cash-flow predictions to
SINA MOHAJERI and shareholders. 200
MATTHIAS HARTUNG, In comparison to purely data-driven processes, which mainly 150
Target Energy Solutions capture near-well behaviours, the system, known as MEERA
Simulation, considers the whole reservoir’s interconnected 100
behaviour and therefore all inter-well effects. This makes it ideal
50
for studying the effects of processes like well injection, as well as
0
for looking at how major structures like fractures and faults in the 1995 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002
subsurface data with machine learning acquired through the reservoir may impact the production rates. 100
(b) MEERA Al
stream of ‘big data’ coming from production. 90 Simulator
Case Study 1: History Matching Observed
80
A Revolutionary Breakthrough The benefits of the utilisation of a system like this can be seen by
Oil Production Rate (sm3/day)
This hybrid AI/physics-based system uses a conventional looking at some completed projects. One example comes from a 70
3D, 3-phase numerical reservoir simulator coupled with a field that had started producing in 1985 and now has more than 60
complex deep learning engine. The first step is to simply 80 production wells, with strong aquifer support. In this case 50
integrate an asset’s optimum dynamic reservoir model into study, production data was matched up to 2010 and the period 40
Target’s platform MEERATM, and its AI-Simulation framework 2010–2018 was used for blind test prediction. Each full field 30
therein. This is done by re-assembling the components of the simulation run took 7 to 8 hours using commercial simulators,
20
original conventional model, so it meshes into the machine but when using MEERA Simulation, each history simulation
learning framework. Various parameters are extracted took 12 minutes, while prediction simulations took 50–70 10
from the original reservoir model, some of which, based on milliseconds, all on the same IT infrastructure. 0
1996 1998 2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2015 2017
a comprehensive correlation analysis, are selected as key These faster results meant the engineers could run
40
reservoir elements to be used for machine learning training multiple simulations in minutes to generate lots of different (c) MEERA Al
Simulator
and prediction. New production data is then incorporated, potential scenarios, thereby allowing for better optimisation 35
Observed
creating a rapidly self-updating live dynamic reservoir model of development strategies. In this case study, the field history
30
that can be used as a reliable production forecasting and proved to be matched better using this system than with the
Oil Production Rate (sm3/day)
scenario-testing tool for operational planning and budgeting. traditional commercial simulators, and in particular the blind 25
It takes just minutes to train the AI using historic production test prediction was more accurate than the traditional simulation
20
data, while successive prediction simulations take merely historical-matching of the same wells. The better the history
milliseconds. matching quality, the better the understanding of the reservoir, 15
Target Energy Solutions
The lack of time constraints means that it is possible which in turn leads to a better production optimisation and re- 10
to optimise a development strategy by running numerous development decisions.
5
Case Study 2: Lack of Data 0
Lack of available data is often another issue that asset operators 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 2020
face. Confronted with this problem, a company that had been Case study 1: Comparison of MEERA vs. conventional simulator in
using a model built on a reservoir modelling tool suite widely predicting oil production rates per well : (a) example in history match
used in the industry decided to test using MEERA Simulation mode only, i.e. prior to 2010; (b) in both history match and prediction
mode; and (c) well example in prediction mode only.
to build their models. As a result of the machine learning built
into the software, the lack of data was not such an issue and the
client found that not only was it quicker to build models through Evergreen Model Predictions
this system, but that the history matching was more reliable than Field development decision making needs reliable
before. However, it must be emphasised that although machine predictive calculations, so a hybrid approach to reservoir
learning can fi ll in data gaps, the more data that is available, the modelling, using a fully coupled simulator with an AI/
more accurate the outcome will be. machine learning engine, is an obvious way forward. The
A key feature seen across both these case studies is that a result benefits from the history matching capabilities of
tool like this, that includes machine learning, has the ability to artificial intelligence combined with the proven forecasting
integrate with other industry reservoir modelling applications, capabilities of a conventional reservoir simulator, while
allowing it to read and write from these applications using data- preserving local and global physical consistency.
exchange industry standards such as RESCUE. In addition, the With their evergreen model predictions and machine
tool also possesses a wide range of professional and easy-to-use learning abilities, tools like MEERA Simulation have the
data-handling utilities and visualisers, including 3D and 2D potential to revolutionise the way that reservoir models
Target Energy Solutions models, a chart visualiser and a histogram visualiser. are built and producing fields are developed.
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