Chapter 14 – The binomial distribution

Solutions to Exercise 14A

1 a and b describe a Bernoulli sequence. b Pr(X = 2) = 0.2527

! !3 !3
2 n = 7, p = 0.5 ! 6 1 5 1 125
7 7 a = 20 × ×
Pr(X = 4) = (0.5)4 (0.5)3 = 0.2734 3 6 6 216 216
4
≈ 0.0536
! !4 !2 ! !5 ! ! !6
6 1 5 6 1 5 6 1
3 n = 4, p = 0.2 + +
4 6 6 5 6 6 6 6
!
4
a Pr(X = 3) = (0.2)3 (0.8)1 = 0.0256 375 30 1 406
3 b + + =
66 66 66 46656
!
4 ≈ 0.0087
b Pr(X = 4) = (0.2)4 (0.8)0 = 0.0016
4 ! !3 !3 ! !4 !2
6 1 5 6 1 5
c +
3 6 6 4 6 6
4 n = 5, p = 0.4
! !5 ! ! !6
6 1 5 6 1
+ +
!
5
a Pr(X = 0) = (0.4)0 (0.6)0 = 0.0778 5 6 6 6 6
0
! ≈ 0.0623
5
b Pr(X = 3) = (0.4)3 (0.6)3 = 0.2304
3
8 n = 10, p = 0.1
!
5
c Pr(X = 5) = (0.4)5 (0.6)5 =
!
10
5 a Pr(X = x) = (0.1) x (0.9)10−x
0.01024 x
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , 10

5 n = 3, p = 0.5 b i Pr(X = 0) = 0.3487

ii Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0)
!
3
a Pr(X = x) = (0.5) x (0.6)3−x = 0.6513
x
x = 0, 1, 2, 3

b Pr(X = 2) = 0.375 9 n = 11, p = 0.2

!
11
a Pr(X = x) = (0.2) x (0.8)11−x
6 n = 6, p = 0.48 x
! x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , 11
6
a Pr(X = x) = (0.48) x (0.52)6−x b i Pr(X = 2) = 0.2953
x
x = 0, 1, 2, 3

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 ! !0 !4
ii Pr(X = 0) = 0.0859 4 1 3
13 1 −
0 4 4
iii Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0) !4
= 0.9141 3
=1−
4
1 ≈ 0.6836
10 n = 7, p =
5
7  1  x  4 7−x
!
14 using the CAS calculator
a Pr(X = x) =
x 5 5
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , 7 a 0.1156

b i Pr(X = 7) = 0.000013 b 0.7986

ii Pr(X = 0) = 0.2097 c 0.3170

iii Pr(X = 2 or X = 3) = 0.3899

15 using the CAS calculator
! ! 0.6791
10 0 10 10
11 1 − (0.2) (0.8) − (0.2)1 (0.8)9
0 1
410 10 × 1 × 49 16 using the CAS calculator
= 1 − 10 −
5 510 a 0.1123
≈ 0.624
b 0.5561
x
12 n = 7, p = c 0.00001
 x 6 100
d 0.00001
100
6x5 (100 − x) 6
!
6
!
iii 17 (0.4) (0.6) + (0.4)(0.6)5
0 6
1006 0 1
!
x6 6x5 (100 − x) 6
iii + + + (0.4)2 (0.6)4
1006 1006 2
15x4 (100 − x)2 36 6 × 2 × 35 15 × 22 × 34
1006 = + +
56 56 56
36 + 4 × 36 + 5 × 4 × 35
=
56
3 × 35 + 4 × 35 7 × 35
= = ≈ 0.544
55 55

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 !6 0.00000256
1 ≈ 0.0021
18 a ≈ 0.00024 0.00123
4

b using the CAS calculator 21 a (0.15)10 ≈ 0.000 000 006

Pr(≥ 3 correct) ≈ 0.1694
b 1 − (0.85)10 ≈ 1 − 0.1969 ≈ 0.8031
!3 !3
3 2 63
19 a = ≈ 0.0138 c Pr(> | goal | ≥ | goal)
5 5 56
Pr(> | goal)
=
6 3
! !3
2
!3
63 Pr(≥ | goal)
b = 20 × ≈ 0.2765
3 5 5 56 (b) − 10(0.15)(0.85)9
=
(b)
c using the CAS calculator 0.8031 − 0.3474
Pr(≥ 3) ≈ 0.8208 =
0.8031
Pr(exactly 3) 0.4557
d Pr(exactly 3| ≥ 3) = = ≈
0.8031
≈ 0.5674
Pr(≥ 3)
(b) 0.2765
=  0.3368
(c) 0.8202 !20
4
22 a ≈ 0.0115
5
!8
4
20 a ≈ 0.1678 b using the CAS calculator
5
p = 0.2, n = 20,
b using the CAS calculator min = 10, max = 20
Pr(≥ 6 corrent) ≈ 0.00123
Pr(≥ 10 correct) ≈ 0.00259
c Pr(8 correct | ≥ 6 correct) =
(0.2)8 Pr(X ≥ 12)
Pr(8 correct)
= = c Pr(X ≥ 12| X ≥ 10) = ≈
Pr(≥ 6 correct) (b) Pr(X ≥ 10)
0.0392 (using the CAS calculator)

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 Solutions to Exercise 14B
1 d µ = np = 8
!
4 32
σ = np(1 − p) = 8 ×
2
=
5 5

1
5 a µ = np = 6 × =1
6

b Pr(X > 1) = 1−Pr(X = 0)−Pr(X = 1)

2 !6 ! !5
5 1 5
=1− −6×
6 6 6
!5
11 5
=1−
6 6
≈ 1 − 0.7368
≈ 0.2632
3 ab
3
6 µ = np = 50 ×
4
= 37.5 people will survive on average

7 µ = np

c the distribution in part b is a σ2 = np(1 − p) = µ(1 − p)

reflection of the distribution in part σ2 = 9, µ = 12
a in the line X = 5 9 = 12(1 − p)
3
1− p=
4 a µ = np = 5 4
1
σ2 = np(1 − p) = 5 × (0.8) = 4 p=
4
µ = np = 6 1
b 12 = n ×
4
12
σ2 = np(1 − p) = 6 × (0.4) = n = 48
5
! !7 !41
500 48 1 3
c µ = np = Pr(X = 7) =
3 7 4 4
1000 ≈ 0.0339
σ2 = np(1 − p) =
9

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 8 µ = 30, σ2 = 21 9 n = 20, p = 0.5
σ2 = µ(1 − p) µ = np = 10

1− p=
21 σ2 = np(1 − p) = 10 × 0.5 = 5
30 √
9 3 σ = 5 ≈ 2.2
p= =
30 10 µ ± 2σ ≈ 10 ± 4.4
µ = np = 5.6, 14.4
3 ∴ the probability of abtaining between 6
30 = n × and 14 heads is about 0.95
10
n = 100
!
100 3
!20
7
!80 10 n = 200, p = 0.6
Pr(X = 20) =
20 10 10 6
µ = np = 200 × = 120
≈ 0.0076 10
4
σ2 = µ(1 − p) = 120 × = 48
10
√ √
σ = 48 = 4 3 ≈ 6.9
µ ± 2σ ≈ 120 ± 13.8
= 106.2, 133.8
∴ the probability that between 107 and
133 students will have attended a
government school is about 0.95

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 Solutions to Exercise 14C
1 a n = 5, p = 0.2 b Pr(X ≥ 1) > 0.7
1 − Pr(X = 0) > 0.7
i Pr(X = 0) = (0.8)5 ≈ 0.3277
Pr(X = 0) < 0.3
ii Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0)
(0.9)n < 0.3
≈ 0.6723
n ≈ 11.43
∴ the smallest number of tickets is 12
b Pr(X ≥ 1) > 0.95
1 − Pr(X = 0) > 0.95
3 p = 0.6
Pr(X = 0) < 0.05
Pr(X = 5) > 0.25
(0.8)n < 0.05 !
n
n ≈ 13.43 (0.6)5 (0.4)n−5 > 0.25
5
∴ the smallest number of shots is 14 using CAS calculator, the minimum
number of shots is 7
c Pr(X ≥ 1) > 0.95 ∴
1 − Pr(X = 0 − Pr(X = 1)) > 0.95
4 p = 0.2
Pr(X = 0) + Pr(X = 1) < 0.05
! Pr(X = 3) > 0.1
n
(0.8) + 0.8n−1 × 0.2 < 0.05
n !
n
1 (0.2)3 (0.8)n−3 > 0.1
3
(0.8)n + n0.8n−1 × 0.2 < 0.05 using the CAS calculator, the minimum
n ≈ 21.77 number of chocolates is 7
the smallest number of shots is 22

! 5 p = 0.35
10
2 a i Pr(X = 2) = (0.1)2 (0.9)8 Pr(X ≥ 2) > 0.9
2
1 − Pr(X = 0) − Pr(X = 1) > 0.9
≈ 0.1937
(0.65)n + n(0.35) (0.65)n−1 < 0.1
ii Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0) using the CAS calculator, the minimum
number of games is 10
= 1 − (0.9)10
≈ 1 − 0.3487
≈ 0.6513

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 6 p = 0.07 number of balls is 42
Pr(X > 1) > 0.8
1 − Pr(X = 0) − Pr(X = 1) > 0.8 7 p = 0.7
(0.93)n + n(0.07)(0.93)n−1 < 0.2 Pr(X ≥ 50) > 0.99
using the CAS calculator, the minimum using the CAS calculator the minimum
number of shots is 86

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 Solutions to Technology-free questions
4 n = 20, p = 0.1, X is Bi (n, p)
!
1
1 X is Bi n = 4, p =
3
a E(X) = np = 2
!4
2 16
a Pr(X = 0) = q4 = = 9
3 81 b sd(X) = npq = 2 × 0.9 =
5
! !3 √
!
4 1 3 1 2 3 3 5
b Pr(X = 1) = p q =4 = sd(X) = √ =
1 3 3 5 5
32
81 5 n = 4, X is Bi (n, p)
16 32 48 16
c Pr(X ≤ 1) = + = = a Pr(no successes) = (1 − p)4
81 81 81 27
!
d Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0) 4 1
b Pr(one success) = p (1 − p)3
1
16 65
=1− = = 4p(1 − p)3
81 81

c Pr(at least one success)

2 n = 3, p = 0.6, !X is Bi (n, p)
3 = 1 − Pr(no success)
Pr(X = 2) = (0.6)2 (0.4)
2 = 1 − (1 − p)4
= 3 × 0.36 × 0.4
d Pr(four successes) p4
9 2
=3× × e
25 5
Pr(at least two successes)
54
=
125 = 1 − Pr(zero or one success)
= 1 − (1 − p)4 − 4p(1 − p)3 (from a/b)
3 n = 5, p = 0.1, X is Bi (n, p)
Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(X = 0)
6 We can assume the coin is unbound,
= 1 − 0.95 so Pr(3 heads in 10 hours)
95 ! !3 !7
=1− =
10 1 1
105 3 2 2
Now 9 = 81, 81 = 6561 and so
2 2
!10
95 = 9 × 6561 = 59049 10 × 9 × 8 1
= ×
Hence Pr(X ≥ 1) = 1 − 0.59049 3×2×1 2
10 × 9 × 8
= 0.40951 so n =
3×2×1
= 10 × 3 × 4
= 120

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 7 n = 5, X is Bi (n, p) 1
n = 5, p = , X is Bi (n, p)
Pr(exactly one success given 5 ! ! !
3 2
5 1 1
at least one success) Pr(X = 3) =
3 2 2
Pr(‘1 success ‘n’ ≥ 1 success ’) !5
= 5×4 1
Pr(≥ 1 success ) = ×
2×1 2
Pr(‘1 success’)
= 5
1 − Pr(‘0 successes ’) =
! 16
5 1
p (1 − p)4
1
= 1
1 − (1 − p)5 9 n = 5, p = , X is Bi (n, p)
5 ! ! !
5p(1 − p)4 5 1 4
3 2
= Pr(X = 3) =
1 − (1 − p)5 3 5 5
1 16
= 10 × ×
8 In one throw of die (assuming unbiased), 125 25
3 1 32
Pr(even number uppermost) = = =
6 2 625

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 Solutions to multiple-choice questions
1 D n = 5, p = 0.6, X is Bi (n, p) 6 B Since p = 0.7, the distribution
5
! has a long tail to the left. The
Pr(X = 3) = (0.6)3 (0.4)2 greatest probablity will be near
3
the mean, which is 10 × 0.7 = 7.
5×4
= (0.6)3 (0.4)2 Hence the second graph is the best
2×1
representation.
= 10 × (0.6)3 (0.4)2
7 C
2 A n = 5, p = 0.35, X is Bi (n, p)
µ = 10 ⇒ np = 10 . . .
1
Pr(on time at least once)
σ = 2σ2 = 4
= 1 − Pr(lets all 5 days)
⇒ 4pq = 4 ...
2
= 1 − (0.65)5
4
1 (2) ÷ (1) : q = = 0.4
3 E Pr(number >4 ) = Pr(5 or 6) = 10
3 1 − p = 0.4
1
n = 4, p = , X is Bi (n, p)
3 p = 0.6
! !2 !2
4 1 2 [Note that if you try to find n, you
Pr(X = 2) = 2
2 3 3 get n = 16 . Taking n to be 17 and
3
4×3 1 4 p to be 0.6 gives a mean of 10.2 and
= × × variance of 4.08, i.e. the mean and
2×1 9 9
8 variance are 10 and 4 to the nearest
=
27 integer.]

4 B n = 80, p = 0.4, 8 C Use (X)npq = np(1 − p) = 1.875n =

X is Bi (n, p) 10 : p − p2 = 0.1875 Using a CAS
solve command gives p = 0.25 or
Pr(X < 30) = Pr(0 ≤ X ≤ 29)
p = 0.75. (Automatically, note that
= 0.2861 3
0.1875 = , so the quadratic can
using a CAS Calculator. 16
3
1 be expened as p2 − p + =0=
5 A E(X) = np = 18 × =6 ! ! 16
3 1 3 1
p− p− = 0, so p = or
2 4 4 4
For (X) = np(1 − p) = 6 × =4 3
3 p = . Since the coin is biased
So µ = 6, σ2 = 4 4
towards heads, the probability of a
head is 0.75.

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 9 E Pr(Thomas wins at least one set) 10 B Pr(Thomas wins at least one set)
1 − Pr(Thomas wins no set, ) = = 1 − Pr(no wins or one win)
1 − 0.76n !
n
1 − 0.76n > 0.95 = 1 − 0.76n − (0.24)1 (0.76)4−1
1
0.76n < 0.05
A CAS Calculator show that = 1 − 0.76n − 0.24n (0.76)4−1
A CAS calculator shows that this
0.7610 = 0.065 . . . and 0.76
probability i) 0.940 . . . when n = 17
n = 0.048 . . .
and 0.952 . . .
So that fewest number of days is 11.
when n = 18.
(Alternatively, taking log10 of both
So the fewest number of day is 18.
side) gives log10 0.76n < log10 0.05
(Note: An efficient way to use a CAS
n log10 0.76 < log10 0.05
calculator is to first Define the func-
log10 0.05
n> tion f (n) = 1 − 0.76n − 0.264(0.76)4−1
log10 076 It is then a simple matter to evaluate
(Since log10 0.76 is negative)
f (n) for various values of n.)
so n > 10.91 . . . and hence the least
number of days is 11)

668

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 Solutions to extended-response questions
1 a For children without disability there is an equal chance of answering A, B or C.
Let X be the number of questions out of 10 which are answered A or B. X is a
2
binomial random variable with n = 10 and p =
!10 3
2
Pr(X = 10) = = 0.0173
3
The probability that the answers given by a child without either disability will be all
As and Bs is 0.0173

b Pr(Answering C five or more times)

= Pr(Answering A or B 5 or less times)
= Pr(X ≤ 5)
= Pr(X = 0) + Pr(X = 1) + Pr(X = 2) + Pr(X = 3) + Pr(X = 4) + Pr(X = 5)
!10 ! ! !9 ! !2 !8 ! !3 !7
1 10 2 1 10 2 1 10 2 1
= + + +
3 1 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3
! !4 !6 ! !5 !5
10 2 1 10 2 1
+ +
4 3 3 5 3 5
!10 !9 !2 !8 !3 !7
1 2 1 2 1 2 1
= + 10 × × + 45 × × + 120 × ×
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
!4 !6 !5 !5
2 1 2 1
+ 210 + 252 × ×
3 3 3 3
!10
1
= [1 + 20 + 180 + 960 + 3360 + 8064]
3
!10
1
= [12585]
3
= 0.2131

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 Graphic calculator techniques for question 1
a In a Calculator page select
Binomial Pdf from the
Probability > Distributions
menu and complete as shown.

b For the cumulative binomial

select Binomial Cdf from the
Probability > Distributions
menu and complete the dialogue
box as shown.

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 2 If the fraction of defective items is 0 the probability of acceptance is 1 If the fraction of
defective items is 0.01 the probability of acceptance (0.99)10 = 0.9044 The results are
recorded in the table shown:
p probability that a batch is accepted
0 1
0.01 0.904 4
0.02 0.817 1
0.05 0.598 7
0.1 0.348 7
0.2 0.107 4
0.5 0.000 98
1 0

3 a The probability of a defective = 0.04

Let X be the number of defectives in a sample of ten.
Pr(X ≥ 2) = 1 − [Pr(X = 0) + Pr(X = 1)]
" ! #
10
= 1 − (0.96) +
10 9
(0.96) (0.04)
1
= 0.0582

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 b Mean number of defectives = np = 0.04 × 10 = 0.4
sd of the number of defectives = np(1 − p)
p
√
= 10 × 0.04 × 096
= 0.6197
µ ± 2σ = 0.4 ± 2 × 0.6197
0.4 + 2 × 0.6197 = 1.6394
0.4 − 2 × 0.6197 = −0.8394

c Yes, the claim of 4% defective must be questioned.

4 Let X be the number of Pizzas delivered late.

Pr(X ≥ 12) = 1 − Pr(X < 12)
Note: X is a binomial random variable with n = 67 and p = 0.1
A table obtained through a calculator
x Pr(X = x) Pr(X ≤ x)
0 0.0009 0.009
1 0.0064 0.0073
2 0.0235 0.0307
3 0.0565 0.0872
4 0.1004 0.1876
5 0.1046 0.3282
6 0.1614 0.4896
7 0.1563 0.6459
8 0.1302 0.7761
9 0.0949 0.8710
10 0.0611 0.9321
11 0.0352 0.9673
∴ Pr(X ≥ 12) = 1 − 0.9673
= 0.0327

1
5 a i p = , n = 6 Let X be the number of defectives.
5 ! !3 !3
6 1 4
Pr(X = 3) =
3 5 5
= 0.0819

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 ii Pr(X < 3) = Pr(X = 0) + Pr(X = 1) + Pr(X = 2)
= (0.8)6 + 6 × (0.8)5 (0.2) + 6C2 (0.8)4 (0.2)2
= 0.9011

b i Let X be the number

! of defectives.
6 2
Pr(X = 2) = p (1 − p)4
2
= 15p2 (1 − p)4

ii Let P = 15p2 (1 − p)4

dP
= 30p(1 − p)4 − 60p2 (1 − p)3
dp
= 30p[1 − p]3 [1 − 3p]
dP 1
= 0 ⇒ p = 1 or p = or p = 0
dp 3
Note when p = 1 or p = 0, P = 0
1
∴ p = gives a maximum probability.
3
53 65 45 18 2
6 a Mean value = 1 × +2× +3× +4× +5×
200 200 200 200 200
=2

1
b np = 2, n = 6 ∴ p=
3
c ∴ Probability distribution is as shown:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
64 64 80 160 20 4 1
Pr(X = x)
729 243 243 729 243 243 729
Multiple the probabilities in the table to obtain the theoretical frequencies.

Theoretical frequencies are as follows:

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Theoretical no. of occurrences 17.56 52.68 65.84 43.90 16.46 3.29 0.274

7 a Let X be the number of faulty articles in as asample of size 10.

Then X is Bi (n = 10, p = 0.05)
Pr(batch accepted after first sample) = Pr(X < 2)
= Pr(X = 0) × Pr(X = 1)

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 Using a CAS calculator given 0.9138616 = 0.9139 correct to 4 decimal places.

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 b Batch is rejected if 3 or more faulty articles or i f there are exactly 2 faulty articels
and then a second sample of size 10 contains any faulty articles.
Pr(X ≥ 3) = 0.0115036
Pr(X = 2) = 0.0746348
In a second sample, Pr(≥ 1 faulty articles) = 1 − Pr(o faulty articles)
= 1 − 0.95◦
= 0.4012631
Pr(batch rejected) = 0.0115036 + 0.0766348 × 0.4012631
= 0.0414517
= 0.04145 correct to 4 significant figures.

c Either 10 which are tested or, if 2 of the sample of 10 are faulty, a second 10 (giving
a total of 20) are tested.
Let p0 = Pr(2 faulty article in first sample), so
1 − p0 = Pr(0, 1, 3, . . . 10 faculty articles in first sample).
Thein if y = number of articles tested, this gives:
y 10 20
Pr(y − q) 1 − p p00

E(Y) = 10(1 − p0 ) + 20p0 = 10p0 + 10

From past b, p0 = 0.0746 ⇒ E(Y) = 10(0.0746) + 10 = 10.746

8 a Let X be the number of people with a birthday in January.

6 1 !2 11 !4
Pr(X = 2) = 2 = 0.0735
12 12

b Let Y be the number of people with a birthday in January.

!8
11
Pr(Y ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(Y = 0) = 1 −
12
= 0.5015

c Let Z be the number of people with a birthday in January.

!N
11
Pr(Z ≥ 1) = 1 − Pr(Z = 0) = 1 −
12
!N
11
1− > 0.9
12
!N
11
⇔ < 0.1
12

675

Cambridge Senior Maths AC/VCE ISBN 978-1-107-56747-4 © Evans et al. 2016 Cambridge University Press
Mathematical Methods 3&4 Photocopying is restricted under law and this material must not be transferred to another party.
 !
11
⇔ N loge < loge (0.1)
12
loge (0.1)
⇔N> !
11
loge
12
⇔ N > 26.46304
∴ Least value of N = 27.

9 For a two-engine plane

Let X be the number of engines which will fail.
The plane will successfully complete its journey if 0 or 1 engines fail.
Pr(X = 0) + Pr(X = 1) = (1 − q)2 + 2q(1 − q)
= 1 − 2q + q2 + 2q − 2q2
= 1 − q2
For a four-engine plane:
Let Y be the number of engines which will fail.
The plane will successfully complete its journey if 0, 1 or 2 engines fail.
Pr(Y = 0) + Pr(Y = 1) + Pr(Y = 2) = (1 − q)4 + 4q(1 − q)3 + 6q2 (1 − q)2
= (1 − q)2 [(1 − q)2 + 4q(1 − q) + 6q2 ]
= (1 − q)2 [1 − 2q + q2 + 4q − 4q2 + 6q2 ]
= (1 − q)2 [1 + 2q + 3q2 ]
To find when a two-engine plane is to be preferred to a one-engine consider the
inequality
1 − q2 > (1 − q)2 (1 + 2q + 3q2 )
(1 − q)(1 + q) > (1 − q)2 (1 + 2q + 3q2 )
∴ (1 + q) > (1 − q)(1 + 2q + 3q2 )
(1 + q) > 1 + 2q + 3q2 − q − 2q2 − 3q3 q > q + q2 − 3q3
0 > q2 − 3q3
0 > q2 (1 − 3q)
1
∴ ≤q≤1
3
1
A two-engine plane it to be preferred to a four-engine plane for ≤ q ≤ 1
3

676

Cambridge Senior Maths AC/VCE ISBN 978-1-107-56747-4 © Evans et al. 2016 Cambridge University Press
Mathematical Methods 3&4 Photocopying is restricted under law and this material must not be transferred to another party.