Chapter 17 – Sampling and estimation
Solutions to Exercise 17A
1 No; sample will be biased towards the
type of movie being shown.
2 a No; biased towards shoppers.
b Randomly select a sample from
telephone lists or an electoral roll.
3 No; only interested people will call, and
they may call more than once.
4 a No; biased towards older, friendly or
sick guinea pigs which may be easier
to catch.
b Number guinea pigs and then
generate random numbers to select a
sample.
5 No; a student from a large school has
less chance of being selected than a
student from a small school.
7 a Unemployed will be under repre-
sented.
b Unemployed or employed may be
under represented, depending on time
of day.
c Unemployed will be over repre-
sented.
Use random sampling based on the
whole population (e.g. electoral roll).
8 a Divide platform into a grid of 1 m2
squares. Select squares using a
random number generator to give two
digits, one a vertical reference and
one a horizontal reference.
b Yes, if crabs are fairly evenly
distributed; otherwise, five squares
may not be enough.
9 No; a parent’s chance of selection
depends on how many children they
have at the school.
10 Not a random sample; only interested
people will call, and they may call more
than once.
11 People who go out in the evenings will
not be included in the sample.
12 a All students at this school
b p = 0.35
c p̂ = 0.42
13 a 0.22
b p̂
739
Solutions to Exercise 17B
5 1
1 a p= =
10 2
1 2
b 0, , , 1
3 3
55
0 3 1
c Pr(P̂ = 0) = 10 =
12
535
1 2 1 5
Pr(P̂ = ) = 10 =
3 12
3 
5 5
2 2 1 5
Pr(P̂ = ) = 10 =
3 12
535
3 0 1
Pr(P̂ = 1) = 10 =
12
3

1 2
p̂ 0 1
3 3
1 5 5 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
12 12 12 12
5 1 1
d Pr(P̂ > 0.5) = + =
12 12 2

12 3
2 a p= =
20 5
1 2 3 4
b Values of P̂ : 0, , , , , 1
5 5 5 5

1 2
p̂ 0 5 5

Pr(P̂ = p̂) 0.0036 0.0542 0.2384

c
3 4
p̂ 5 5 1

Pr(P̂ = p̂) 0.3973 0.2554 0.0511

d Pr(P̂ > 0.7) = 0.2554 + 0.0511

= 0.3065

740
 Pr(0 < P̂ < 0.7)
e Pr(P̂ < 0.7|P̂ > 0) = = 0.6924
Pr(P̂ > 0)

3 a p = 0.5
1 2
b Values of P̂ : 0, , , 1
2 3

1 2
p̂ 0 1
c 3 3
Pr(P̂ = p̂) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1

d Pr(P̂ > 0.25) = 0.9

4 a p = 0.4
1 2
b Values of P̂ : 0, , , 1
3 3

1 2
p̂ 0 1
c 3 3
1 1 3 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
6 2 10 30
1
d Pr(P̂ > 0.5) =
3
e Pr(P̂ < 0.5|P̂ > 0)
Pr(0 < P̂ < 0.5) 4
= =
Pr(P̂ > 0) 5

5 a p = 0.5
1 1 3
b Values of P̂ : 0, , , , 1
4 2 4

1 1 3
p̂ 0 1
c 4 2 4
1 1 3 1 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
16 4 8 4 16
5
d Pr(P̂ > 0.7) =
16

741
 1 2 3 4
6 a Values of P̂ : 0, , , , , 1
5 5 5 5
b 1 2 3 4
p̂ 0 1
5 5 5 5
1 5 5 5 5 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
32 32 16 16 32 32

3
c Pr(P̂ < 0.4) =
16
d Pr(P̂ > 0|P̂ < 0.8)
Pr(0 < P̂ < 0.8) 25
= =
Pr(P̂ < 0.8) 26

1 1 3
7 a Values of P̂ : 0, , , , 1
4 2 4

1 1 3
p̂ 0 1
b 4 2 4
256 256 96 16 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
625 625 625 625 625

c Pr(P̂ > 0.5|P̂ > 0)

Pr(P̂ > 0.5) 17
= =
Pr(P̂ > 0) 369

1 1 3
p̂ 0 1
8 4 2 4
1 1 3 1 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
16 4 8 4 16
1 1 1 1 3 3 1 3
E(X) = 0 × + × + × + × +1× = 0.5
16 4  4 2 8  4 4   16  
1 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 5
E(X 2 ) = 02 × + × + × + × + 1 × =
 516  41 2 41 2 8 4 4 16 16
∴ Var(X) = − =
16 2 16
1
∴ sd(x) =
4

1 2 3 4
p̂ 0 1
9 5 5 5 5
1 5 5 5 5 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
32 32 16 16 32 32
1 1 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 1
E(X) = 0 × + × + × + × + × +1× = 0.5
32 5 32 5 16 5 16 5 32 32

742
 1  1 2 5  2 2 5  3 2 5  4 2 5  2 1
E(X ) = 0 × +
2 2
× + × + × + × + 1 × = 0.340176
32 5  32 5 16 5 16 5 32 32
1 2

∴ Var(X) = 0.340176 − = 0.050176
2
∴ sd(X) = 0.224
µ = 0.5, σ = 0.224

1 1 3
p̂ 0 1
10 4 2 4
256 256 96 16 1
Pr(P̂ = p̂)
625 625 625 625 625
256 1 256 3 16 1
E(X) = 0 × + × + × +1× = 0.2
625 4 625 4 625 625
256  1 2 256  3 2 16  2 1
E(X ) = 0 ×
2 2
+ × + × + 1 × = 0.08
625  4  625 4 625 32
2
∴ Var(X) = 0.08 − 0.02 = 0.04
∴ sd(X) = 0.2
µ = 0.2, σ = 0.2

r r
p(1 − p) 0.3 × 0.7
11 n = 30, p = 0.4, µ = p = 0.3, σ = = = 0.084
n 30
µ = 0.3, σ = 0.084

r r
p(1 − p) 0.4 × 0.6
12 n = 100, p = 0.4, µ = p = 0.4, σ = = = 0.049
n 100
µ = 0.4, σ = 0.049

r r
p(1 − p) 0.2 × 0.8
13 n = 100, p = 0.2, µ = p = 0.2, σ = = = 0.04 µ = 0.2,
n 100
σ = 0.04

14 a p = 0.65, n = 20
Pr(P̂ = 0.65) = Pr(X = 13) = 0.1844
r r
p(1 − p) 0.65 × 0.35
b µ = 0.65, σ = = = 0.1066
n 20
µ − σ = 0.543
µ + σ = 0.757

743
 Pr(0.543 < P̂ < 0.757) = Pr(10.86 < X < 15.14)
= Pr(11 ≤ X ≤ 15)
= 0.7600

c µ − 2σ = 0.4368
µ + 2σ = 0.8632
Pr(0.4368 < P̂ < 0.8632) = Pr(8.74 < X < 17.26)
= Pr(9 ≤ X ≤ 17)
= 0.9683

744
Solutions to Exercise 17C
1 p = 0.5, n = 50
r 5 p = 0.3, n = 50
r
p(1 − p) p(1 − p)
µ = 0.5, σ = = µ = 0.3, σ =
r n r n
0.5 × 0.5 0.3 × 0.7
= 0.0707 = = 0.0648
50 50
0.46 − 0.5 The calculation can also be done directly
Pr(P̂ < 0.46) ≈ Pr(Z ≤ )=
0.7070 with calculator:
Pr(Z ≤ −0.5658)
Pr(P̂ < 0.2) ≈ 0.0614
The calculation can also be done directly
with calculator:
Pr(P̂ < 0.46) ≈ 0.2858 6 p = 0.6, n = 100
r
p(1 − p)
µ = 0.6, σ =
n
2 p = 0.12, n = 300
r
0.6 × 0.4
= = 0.0490
r
p(1 − p)
µ = 0.12, σ = 100
n
a Pr(P̂ < 0.8) ≈ 1
r
0.12 × 0.88
= = 0.018762
300
The calculation can also be done directly b Pr(0.6 < P̂ < 0.8) ≈ 0.5
with calculator:
Pr(P̂ > 0.1) ≈ 0.8568 c Pr(0.7 < P̂ < 0.8|P̂ > 0.6)
Pr(0.7 < P̂ < 0.8)
= ≈ 0.0412
Pr(P̂ > 0.6)
3 p = 0.5, n = 25
r
p(1 − p)
µ = 0.5, σ = 7 p = 0.5, n = 100
n r
r p(1 − p)
0.5 × 0.5 µ = 0.5, σ =
= = 0.1 n
25 r
The calculation can also be done directly 0.5 × 0.5
= = 0.05
with calculator: 100
The calculation can also be done directly
Pr(P̂ > 0.6) ≈ 0.1587
with calculator:
Pr(0.4 < P̂ < 0.6) ≈ 0.9545
4 p = 0.1, n = 200
r
p(1 − p)
µ = 0.1, σ = 8 p = 0.1, n = 1000
n r
r p(1 − p)
0.1 × 0.9 µ = 0.1, σ =
= = 0.0212 n
200 r
The calculation can also be done directly 0.1 × 0.9
= = 0.0095
with calculator: 1000
Pr(P̂ > 0.15) ≈ 0.0092 a Pr(0.08 < P̂ < 0.12) ≈ 0.9650

745
 b Pr(0.08 < P̂ < 0.12|P̂ > 0.10) = 10 p = 0.9, n = 250
Pr(0.08 < P̂ < 0.12)
≈ 0.9650 212
Pr(P̂ < 0.12) a p̂ = = 0.848
250
r
9 p = 0.52, n =400 p(1 − p)
b µ = 0.9, σ = = 0.0190
n
230 Pr(P̂ ≤ 0.848) ≈ 0.0031
a p̂ = = 0.575
400
r c Yes, because the chance of the battery
p(1 − p)
b µ = 0.52, σ = = 0.0350 lasting only this short period of time
n is very small if the manufacturers
Pr(P̂ ≥ 0.575) ≈ 0.0139 claim is correct.

746
Solutions to Exercise 17D
1 a 0.08 Since n must be an integer larger than
the calculated value to ensure the margin
b (0.0268, 0.1332) of error is no more than 0.05, n = 246

2 a 0.192 9 p∗ = 0.30
b (0.1432, 0.2408) M = 0.03 
1.96 2
n= × 0.3 × 0.7 = 896.37
0.03
Since n must be an integer larger than
3 a 0.2
the calculated value to ensure the
b (0.1216, 0.2784) margin of error is no more than 0.03,
n = 897
 1.96 2
4 (0.28395, 0.3761) ba M = 0.02, × 0.3 × 0.7 = 2017
0.02
c Reducing margin of error by 1%
5 a (0.4761, 0.5739)
requires the sample size to be more
b (0.5095, 0.5405) than doubled

c The second interval is narrower

10 a p∗ = 0.3, M = 0.02 n =
because the sample size is larger  1.96 2
× 0.3 × 0.7 = 2016.94 ≈ 2017
0.02
6 a (0.8035, 0.8925) b p∗ = 0.5, M = 0.02
 1.96 2
b (0.8839, 0.8621) n= × 0.5 × 0.5 ≈ 2401
0.02
c The second interval is narrower c i p∗ = 0.3, nr= 2401
because the sample size is larger 0.3 × 0.7
M = 1.96 ≈ 1.8
2401
The margin of error is less than
7 M = 0.02, p̂ = 0.8 2%
 1.96 2
n= × 0.8 × 0.3 = 1536.64
0.02 ii p∗ = 0.5, nr= 2017
Since n must be an integer larger than
0.5 × 0.5
the calculated value to ensure the margin M = 1.96 ≈ 2.2
2017
of error is no more than 0.02, n = 1537 The margin of error is greater
than 2%
8 M = 0.05, p̂ = 0.2 n = d 2401, as this ensures that M is 2% or
 1.96 2
× 0.2 × 0.8 = 245.86 less, whoever is correct
0.05

747
11 90%: (0.5194, 0.6801),
95%: (0.5034, 0.6940),
99%: (0.4738, 0.7262); Interval
width increases as confidence level
increases
12 90%: (0.5111, 0.5629),
95%: (0.5061, 0.5679),
99%: (0.4964, 0.5776); Interval
width increases as confidence level
increases
748
Solutions to Technology-free questions
1 a All employees of the company 0.588
∴M= √
n
b p = 0.35
c Margin of√error would decrease by a
c p̂ = 0.40 factor of 2

2 a No; only people already interested in 5 a 40 × 0.95 = 38

yoga  
b Pr(Y = 40) = 40
40 (0.95) (0.05) =
40 0

b Use electoral roll (0.95)40

k 6 a 50 × 0.95 = 45
3 a
100
r b
b p̂ ± 1.96
p̂(1 − p̂ Pr(Y ≥ 49) = Pr(Y = 49) + Pr(Y = 50)
n ! !
50 50
= (0.1) (0.9) +
1 49
(0.1)0 (0.9)50
s
k k
k 100 (1 − 49 50
= ± 1.96 100
100 100 = 5(0.9)49 + (0.9)50
√
k 1.96 k(100 − k) = 5.9(0.9)49
= ±
100 1000

7 a p̂ = 0.60
4 a p̂ = 0.9
r b M = 0.10
p̂(1 − p̂
b M = 1.96
100 c Increase sample size
r
0.9 × 0.1
= 1.96 ×
n
0.3
= 1.96 × √
n

749
Solutions to multiple-choice questions
1 B This class is a sample of the whole
school population, so any statistics
determined from this sample is
called a sample statistic.
2 C When the statistics is calculated
from the whole population it is
known as a population parameter.
3 D All we can say about a 95%
confidence interval is that 95% of
such intervals will capture the true
mean. Statement B is a common in-
correct interpretation of a confidence
interval.
r
p̂(1 − p̂
4 E M = 1.96
100
r 10
0.3 × 0.7
= 1.96 ×
50
= 0.1270
8 E I the centre of a confidence
interval is a sample parameter not a
population parameter
II the bigger the margin of error the
bigger the confidence interval
III a point estimate is a single value
estimate like p̂
IV the sample proportion a point
estimate
9 C Since the width of the confidence
interval is inversely proportional to
the square root of the sample size,
increasing the sample size by a factor
of 4 decreases the width by a factor
of 2.
 1.96 2
E M = 0.03 n = × 0.3 × 0.7 =
0.03
896.37 ≈ 897
11 A See definitions

4 12 B A sampling distribution is the

5 C p̂ = = 0.08
50 distribution of a sample statistic,
95% CI= (0.005, 0155) Use of
and as such shows how this statistic
calculator
varies from sample to sample.
14
6 E p̂ = = 0.08
88 13 C p̂ = 0.78, n = 100
95% CI = (0.083, 0.236) Use of
95% CI= (0.6988, 0.8682)
calculator
14 D The width of a confidence interval
7 B As to be more confidence of
will decrease if the sample size
capturing the true mean the interval
is increased, or if the level of
will be wider.
confidence is decreased.

750
Solutions to extended-response questions
 1.96 2
1 a n= p∗ (1 − p∗ ) 0 ≤ p∗ ≤ 1
M
 1.96 2
= p∗ (1 − p∗ )
0.02
= 96042 p∗ (1 − p∗ )
n
2401

0 p*
0.5 1
b From the graph, the maximum occurs when p∗ = 0.5

c If they use the maximum samples size (2401) then they will ensure the margin of
error stays within the desired range of ±2%

2 p = 0.6, n = 100 r
p̂(1 − p̂
µ = p̂ = 0.6, σ = = 0.0490
1n

a Pr(P̂ > 0.65) = 0.1537

b Pr(0.5 < P̂ < 0.65) = 0.8257

3 a p̂ = 0.57, n = 100
95% CI = (0.4730, 0.6670)

b i Pr(Y = 5) = 55 (0.95)5 (0.05)0 = 0.7738
5
ii Pr(Y = 0) = 0 (0.95)0 (0.05)5 = 0.0000003

iii Pr(Y ≤ 4) = 0.2262

iv 0.95 × 5 = 4.75

c n = 500
X = 57 + 67 + 72 + 55 + 60 = 311

751
 311
p̂ = = 0.622
500
CI = (0.5795, 0.6645)
500
4 a p=
N
60
b p̂ = = 0.15
400
500 500
c = 0.15 N ≈ = 3333.33 ≈ 3333
N 0.15
d 95% CI for r
p̂ r
0.15 × 0.85 0.15 × 0.85
0.15 − 1.96 < p < 0.15 + 1.96
r 400 r 400
0.1275 0.1275
0.15 − 1.96 < p < 0.15 + 1.96
400 400
500
e 0.1150 < < 0.1850
N
N
5.4056 < < 8.6951
500
2703 < N < 4348

752