Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
February 2008
Tüpraş Key Messages
Global
Tüpraş New
Refining
Upgrades Opportunities
Environment
• Restructuring and
• Strong financial
efficiency • No Significant
performance and
improvement Liabilities
high dividend yield
potential
2
3
Macro Outlook
Recession 0,0
•Kenneth Rogoff – Lehman Bros
•George Soros - Investor
•Sergio Ermotti – Unicredit CEO -2,0
•Nouriel Roubini - Economist 2007 -1Q 2007 -2Q 2007 -3Q 2007 -4Q 2008 -1Q 2008 -2Q
Crude Oil
Terrorism
Rising Low War Risk /
(Nigeria, OPEC Resource High
Demand Dollar Embargo
from EM Iraq, Quotas Nationalism Prices
Value (Iran)
Angola)
5
Margin Environment
6
Rising Refinery Costs
7
Global Product Consumption & Refining Capacity
110
Product Consumption
Product Consumption With Low Growth
100 Actual Refining Capacity
Estimated Refining Capacity
90
80
Million bbl/day
70
60
50
40
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
8
Turkish Oil Products Demand Projection
Base Case (Million Ton)
0.2%
30 3.5
3.5
-3%
25 2.5
2.6 7%
2.2 2.4
20
15
12.2 13.2 8%
10
4.0 3.4 -17%
5
2.2 2.3 5%
1.9 2.1
0
93 95 99 '00 '06 '07 '10 '15 2020
9
Turkey’s Imports
Gasoline 2006
Million ton 2005 2006 2007E
Israel 6% 13%
Gasoline 0,7 0,8 0,6 22%
Greece
Jet Fuel - 0,2 0,2 59%
Romania
10
Legislation - Petroleum Market Law
• Pricing set by the market for both refinery gate and pump price
Freedoms • No limit on imports
• Refining companies may own distributors
11
Storage Capacity and Compulsory Stock Requirement
Source: EMRA
12
Developments in Turkish Petroleum Sector
• EU • Turkey • Turkey • EU
• EURO IV • National • EURO IV • EURO V
Marker • 1000 ppm • Turkey
Process • National • EURO V
Compulsory Expected
Stock
1000 ppm: From Jan 1st 2008, all gasoil sold in Turkey will have at maximum 1000 ppm sulphur content
EURO IV: 50 ppm S for gasoline & diesel, aromatics (35%) for gasoline
EURO V: 10 ppm S
10 ppm Diesel already in the market ahead of regulations
National Marker Process introduced in order to prevent illegal trade.
National Compulsory Stock may become an issue in 2008.
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TÜPRAŞ Assets
İstanbul
İzmit
Marmara 11.0 mt
NC: 7.78
Ankara
Körfez Kırıkkale
5.0 mt
NC: 5.32 (6.32)
İzmir
11.0 mt
NC: 7.66 Batman
1,1 mt
NC:1.83
Mersin
Ceyhan
Kirkuk
Total Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons
Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 7.08 (7.25)
Opet
Retailing
Shipping
chemicals
15
Koç Energy Group Storage Capacities
453
36.5
43.7
65.6
249.1
Unmatched
Logistics
Strength
Aygaz Opet Tüpraş
150.000 M3 850.000 M3 5.100.000 M3 100% Coverage
of Turkey
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Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (million ton)
Kazakhstan
9,1
7,1 6,7
5,8 0,5
0,1
2004 2005 2006 2007
Italy Russia
0,1 0,1
0,4
0,1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007
Domestic Crude
Libya Iran
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Gross Refining Margin
18
Crude Processing and Production 12M 2007/2006
30,0 Production Mix (mn ton) • Crude Volume Optimisation • Processed heavier
• Maximising capacity of Crude Oil API 32.1 vs
-2.5% conversion units 32.5 for 2006
24,6 • 25.6 mn tons of crude oil • White Production
25,0 24,0 were processed and Yield 67.5% from
1,0
1,0 Others decreased 2.5% 67.1% in 2006
2,2
2,3
Asphalt Production
20,0
5,8
Crude
5,4
Fuel Oil
15,0
Gasoil
7,6 7,1 Tüpraş Capacity Utilisation (%)
Jet / Kero 110 Annual
10,0
19
Changing Product Yields
Volume MT
more profitable 4.000
Increased Gasoline 3.000 3.612 3.965
More high priced Jet 2.000
1.000
Asphalt Maximisation 0
1.410 869
2006 2007
Gasolines Naphtha
Volume MT
8.000
8.000 2.220 2.286
6.000
6.000 7.615 7.118
4.000
4.000 5.799
2.000
5.432
2.000
2.156 2.588
0 0
2006 2007 2006 2007
Jet /Kerosene Gasoil Fuel Oil Asphalt
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Tüpraş Total Product Sales – 12 Months
Record
21
Tüpraş Domestic Product Sales
Record 22
Progress in the near term strategy: Increasing Trading Activities
23
Tüpraş vs The Market – 2007 /2006
24
Total Sales By Customers – 12 M 2007
BP
12,3%
Petkim Shell
3,4% LPG 19,8%
Dist.
3,5%
25
TÜPRAŞ Exports 12M 2007/2006
26
27
Strategy: Key Parameters
28
Progress in the near term strategy: Investments
On-Going Investment
May 31st: Izmit CCR onstream
July 8th : Izmit HDS onstream
Kırıkkale HDS &CCR 2nd Q 2008
Million $
373
400
350 273
300 123
250 53
200
Other Investments
150
Wagon loading facilities in Izmit are
220 250 completed
100
50
Tank investments to add 1 million M3
capacity (+20%)
0
2006 2007 8 MW Wind Turbine investment to be
made in Izmir by 2011
New and Other Inv. Master Plan
29
Upside Potential
30
TÜPRAŞ’s Major Investment Study-Residium Upgrading
Profitability
• Contraction in Fuel Oil product to high-value
market white products
• Alternative to new refinery • Increases Tüpraş’s margin
projects premium over its
• Matching Production to competitors
demand • Improves long term cash
• Local trends are flow & income
mirrored in global
markets • Note: Makes no
assumption about
refinery margins going
forward.
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32
Profitability Indicators - 2006 /2007 (Tax Purpose)
Difference
2006 2007
Amount (%)
33
Income Statement :2006/2007 (Tax Purpose)
4Q 4Q
% Diff. Million USD 2006 % Diff.
2006 2007 2007
34
FX Risk (2007 Tax Purpose)
Consolidated Consolidated
Assets Liabilities
Cash:
Payables: 1.909
244
Short Term
Recievables:267
Loans:74
Financial Loans:
Stock:1.798
322
+4
35
Financial Highlights
New
14,1 15,8
11,1 12,1
One Off 8,6
5,2 5,2 6,1
2007/9M
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Tax
Natural Gas
881
768 769 769
711 Net Income (USD Million)
429
356
279 725 708
491 508 575
291
154 116
2007 Tax
2007 Tax
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007/9M
2007/9M
36
Dividends
37
Ratings & Corporate Governance
Stakeholders 88,09
Board 62,65
0% 50% 100%
38
Highlights
39
Thank you…
The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly
updated information of interest to investors.
www.tupras.com.tr
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TÜPRAŞ Shareholder Structure
Shell
Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. Turkey
0.1%
51%
79.98%
Ditaş
Free Float
(Foreign
49% Investor’s
Share: ~85%)
40.0%
42
The Distribution Business, Opet
Retail Business
Tüpraş entered the retail market
• Turkey’s 3rd largest
• Purchasing 40% of Opet shares for US$380 • 1.300 Retail sites, 2 Brands
million from Aygaz (Dec 2006)
Storage Capacity
• Second largest in Turkey, with 5 Terminals total
Reasons for investment 850.000 M3
15
43
Market Share in Retailing 2007/2006
(1000 M3 )
18.624
Share,% 17.580 5.9% Share,%
2.312
11.1 1.945 others 1.225 12.4
6.7 1.173
Total 6.6
14.9 2.611 2.776
14.9
BP
14.3 2.523 2.841
OPET 15.3
32.1 5.651
POAŞ 5.385 28.9
2006 2007
Source: PETDER
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“Operational Excellence Program" with SHELL Global Solutions
Opportunity Confirmation
Phase Implementation Phase
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80
90
100
110
120
140
150
160
130
04 Jan
18 Jan
01 Feb
15 Feb
01 Mar
15 Mar
29 Mar
12 Apr
26 Apr
10 May
24 May
ISE Relative Performance 2007
07 Jun
IMKB-100 Relative
P46
21 Jun
46
05 Jul
19 Jul
02 Aug
16 Aug
30 Aug
13 Sep
27 Sep
Tüpraş Relative
11 Oct
25 Oct
08 Nov
22 Nov
06 Dec
20 Dec
Disclaimer
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this
presentation.
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