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California Auto Outlook Publication Sponsored By:

TM

Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market


Volume 16, Number 2
Released May 2020 Covering First Quarter 2020

COVID-19 Pandemic Puts the Brakes on State New Vehicle Market


California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations-2008 thru 2020
KEY TRENDS IN
2.5
2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 NEW VEHICLE
ANNUAL 1.93
MARKET
New vehicle regs. (millions)

2.0 1.80
TRENDS 1.45
1.62 1.54
1.5 1.29
1.17
1.04 The California new vehicle market
1.0 got off to a good start in the first
two months of this year, and then the
0.5 bottom fell out when the COVID-19
crisis took hold in March. Reported
0.0 new vehicle registrations in the state
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20* declined by less than 10 percent from
Years a year earlier, but the reporting of
Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
registrations lags actual sales at deal-
*2020 forecast by Auto Outlook.
erships. Auto Outlook estimates that
the state new vehicle market fell by 24
California Total New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2019 and 2020 Forecast percent during the first four months of
2020 versus a year earlier.
Annual Totals
2019 2020 Forecast Change New light vehicle registrations this
Registrations year are predicted to fall to 1,540,000
TWO YEAR TOTAL 2,093,173 1,540,000 -26.4% units, a 26% decline from 2019. This
Car 869,744 581,810 -33.1% projection, however, is subject to
PERSPECTIVE Light Truck 1,223,429 958,190 -21.7% an above average level of variability,
Domestic 656,882 491,519 -25.2% due to uncertainties surrounding the
European 324,704 236,505 -27.2% spread of the virus and changes in gov-
Japanese 962,592 694,680 -27.8% ernmental policies regarding business
Korean 148,995 117,296 -21.3% operations.
Market Share
Barring a scientific breakthrough
Car 41.6 37.8 -3.8
resulting in a vaccine or effective
Light Truck 58.4 62.2 3.8
treatment for the virus, the auto sales
Domestic 31.4 31.9 0.5
recovery will be gradual. Any growth in
European 15.5 15.4 -0.1
employment levels are likely to proceed
Japanese 46.0 45.1 -0.9
slowly and many households will be
Korean 7.1 7.6 0.5
dealing with the financial consequenc-
Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. *2020 forecast by Auto Outlook. es of a significant interruption in
income, which will crimp spending on
big ticket items, like new vehicles.
Segment Market Shares in State: YTD 2019 and 2020, thru March
As shown on the graph to the left, Non
35.0%
Luxury SUV market moved above 30
Non Luxury SUV market share reached 33
SEGMENTS 30.0% percent in the First Quarter of this year.
YTD '19 percent in the First Quarter of 2020.
Small car market share continued to
YTD '20
25.0% decline.
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Non Luxury Small Cars Pickups and Luxury SUVs Non Luxury Luxury &
SUVs Vans Mid Size & Sports Cars
Large Cars
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
Page 2 California Auto Outlook

MODEL RANKINGS

Honda Civic Is Best Seller in California New Vehicle Market

The table below shows the top


five selling models during the BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS
first three months of 2020 in Compact Car: Honda Civic Full Size Pickup: Ford F-Series
20 segments. In addition to unit
Mid Size Car: Toyota Camry Compact SUV: Toyota RAV4
registrations, it also shows each
model’s market share in its re- Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3 Mid Size SUV: Toyota Highlander
spective segment. Luxury Car: BMW 5-Series Luxury Compact SUV: Lexus NX

Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2020, thru March)
Cars
Subcompact Compact Sports/Pony Cars Mid Size
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Chevrolet Bolt 2654 22.2 Honda Civic 18001 28.3 Ford Mustang 3014 37.5 Toyota Camry 17871 32.9
Nissan Versa 1854 15.5 Toyota Corolla 15575 24.5 Dodge Challenger 2716 33.8 Honda Accord 12551 23.1
Kia Soul 1853 15.5 Toyota Prius 5209 8.2 Chevrolet Camaro 1363 17.0 Nissan Altima 6116 11.3
Honda Fit 1688 14.1 Nissan Sentra 3895 6.1 Mazda MX5 326 4.1 Ford Fusion 4305 7.9
Chevrolet Spark 1008 8.4 Kia Forte 3811 6.0 Hyundai Veloster 306 3.8 Chevrolet Malibu 4040 7.4
Large Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and High End Sports Cars
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Dodge Charger 3814 64.6 Mercedes CLA-Class 730 23.5 Tesla Model 3 18856 52.2 BMW 5-Series 1840 13.8
Nissan Maxima 630 10.7 Audi A3 688 22.1 BMW 3-Series 3473 9.6 Mercedes E-Class 1701 12.8
Toyota Avalon 536 9.1 Mercedes A-Class 595 19.1 Lexus ES 2703 7.5 Tesla Model S 1561 11.7
Chrysler 300 459 7.8 Acura ILX 582 18.7 Mercedes C-Class 2199 6.1 Audi A6 809 6.1
Chevrolet Impala 409 6.9 BMW 2-Series 374 12.0 Audi A4 1099 3.0 Mercedes S-Class 709 5.3
Light Trucks
Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van Large Van
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Toyota Tacoma 10498 53.6 Ford F-Series 12981 29.9 Chrysler Pacifica 3096 29.2 Ford Transit Connect 4579 46.7
Ford Ranger 3017 15.4 Chevrolet Silverado 11896 27.4 Honda Odyssey 2766 26.1 Mercedes Sprinter 1447 14.8
Chevrolet Colorado 2249 11.5 Ram Pickup 11858 27.3 Toyota Sienna 2205 20.8 Ram Promaster 1210 12.3
Jeep Gladiator 1448 7.4 GMC Sierra 4073 9.4 Chrysler T & C 1671 15.8 Nissan NV 1083 11.0
Nissan Frontier 1169 6.0 Toyota Tundra 2444 5.6 Dodge Caravan 471 4.4 Chevrolet Express 762 7.8
Subcompact SUV Compact SUV Mid Size SUV Large SUV
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Honda HR-V 3733 15.4 Toyota RAV4 17261 22.4 Toyota Highlander 6554 11.9 Chevrolet Tahoe 1893 22.7
Toyota C-HR 2757 11.3 Honda CR-V 9770 12.7 Ford Explorer 5468 9.9 Ford Expedition 1665 20.0
Hyundai Kona 2755 11.3 Mazda CX5 6407 8.3 Subaru Outback 4908 8.9 Chevrolet Suburban 1281 15.4
Kia Niro 2285 9.4 Subaru Forester 5045 6.6 Jeep Grand Cherokee 3645 6.6 GMC Yukon 1156 13.9
Nissan Kicks 2056 8.5 Jeep Wrangler 4847 6.3 Toyota 4Runner 3450 6.3 Nissan Armada 982 11.8
Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV
Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share
Audi Q3 1566 19.2 Lexus NX 3616 18.4 Lexus RX 5387 19.5 Mercedes GLS-Class 1349 21.2
Lexus UX 1556 19.1 BMW X3 2888 14.7 Mercedes GLE-Class 2913 10.6 Land Rover Range Rover 1058 16.6
BMW X1 1529 18.8 Mercedes GLC-Class 2272 11.5 Tesla Model X 2826 10.3 BMW X7 1051 16.5
Mercedes GLA-Class 1228 15.1 Audi Q5 2054 10.4 BMW X5 2626 9.5 Cadillac Escalade 884 13.9
BMW X2 794 9.8 Acura RDX 1924 9.8 Audi Q7 1568 5.7 Infiniti QX80/QX56 746 11.7

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Figures for Prius include Prius Prime.
Covering First Quarter 2020 Page 3

MARKET SHARE FOR NEW VEHICLE BRANDS

Toyota, Honda, and Ford are Market Share Leaders in California


California New Vehicle Market Share - YTD 2019 and 2020, thru March
(Based on new light vehicle registrations)

Toyota 17.0%
15.3%

Honda 11.1%
11.5%

Ford 8.7%
9.7%

Chevrolet 7.7%
7.5%

Nissan 5.5%
7.7%
Toyota market share in California increased
Tesla 4.6% to 17.0 percent in the First Quarter of 2020
4.0%

Subaru 3.8%
3.6%

Kia 3.6%
3.2%

BMW 3.5%
3.3%

Hyundai 3.4%
3.5%

Mercedes 3.3%
3.7%

Lexus 3.1%
3.1%

Jeep 3.1%
3.1%

Ram 2.6%
2.3%

Mazda 2.4%
2.3%

Volkswagen 2.2%
2.4%
YTD '20
Audi 2.2%
1.9% YTD '19

GMC 1.9%
1.6%

Dodge 1.8%
2.1%

Land Rover 1.0%


1.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
Market Share

Market Share Leaders: Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevrolet, and Nissan


Largest increases in First Quarter: Toyota, Tesla, Kia, Chrysler, Audi, Ram, and GMC

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.


Page 4 California Auto Outlook

BRAND REGISTRATIONS

Detailed Results for All Brands in California Market


California New Car and Light Truck Registrations
First Quarter Annual Totals
Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%)
1Q '19 1Q '20 % change 1Q '19 1Q '20 Change 2018 2019 % change 2018 2019 Change
TOTAL 530,402 507,646 -4.3 2,154,813 2,093,173 -2.9

Acura 5,850 5,033 -14.0 1.1 1.0 -0.1 23,125 21,580 -6.7 1.1 1.0 -0.1
Alfa Romeo 1,038 1,092 5.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 5,006 3,937 -21.4 0.2 0.2 0.0
Audi 10,131 10,998 8.6 1.9 2.2 0.3 45,483 41,818 -8.1 2.1 2.0 -0.1
BMW 17,417 17,844 2.5 3.3 3.5 0.2 72,646 76,592 5.4 3.4 3.7 0.3
Buick 2,138 2,057 -3.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 9,832 8,058 -18.0 0.5 0.4 -0.1
Cadillac 3,824 3,375 -11.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 14,754 14,010 -5.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
Chevrolet 39,709 39,101 -1.5 7.5 7.7 0.2 177,297 153,535 -13.4 8.2 7.3 -0.9
Chrysler 3,348 5,283 57.8 0.6 1.0 0.4 15,839 10,697 -32.5 0.7 0.5 -0.2
Dodge 11,308 9,129 -19.3 2.1 1.8 -0.3 46,049 45,601 -1.0 2.1 2.2 0.1
FIAT 436 164 -62.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 2,892 1,537 -46.9 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ford 51,224 43,976 -14.1 9.7 8.7 -1.0 198,847 192,219 -3.3 9.2 9.2 0.0
Genesis 189 800 323.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1,946 2,867 47.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
GMC 8,641 9,810 13.5 1.6 1.9 0.3 37,001 35,108 -5.1 1.7 1.7 0.0
Honda 61,014 56,421 -7.5 11.5 11.1 -0.4 247,550 246,695 -0.3 11.5 11.8 0.3
Hyundai 18,409 17,350 -5.8 3.5 3.4 -0.1 72,622 74,596 2.7 3.4 3.6 0.2
Infiniti 5,734 4,073 -29.0 1.1 0.8 -0.3 21,277 17,049 -19.9 1.0 0.8 -0.2
Jaguar 1,792 1,538 -14.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 5,948 5,477 -7.9 0.3 0.3 0.0
Jeep 16,287 15,663 -3.8 3.1 3.1 0.0 69,201 65,498 -5.4 3.2 3.1 -0.1
Kia 16,891 18,439 9.2 3.2 3.6 0.4 68,175 71,532 4.9 3.2 3.4 0.2
Land Rover 5,181 4,977 -3.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 18,414 18,380 -0.2 0.9 0.9 0.0
Lexus 16,276 15,702 -3.5 3.1 3.1 0.0 62,432 63,559 1.8 2.9 3.0 0.1
Lincoln 1,797 2,072 15.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 7,171 6,881 -4.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
Maserati 506 401 -20.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2,604 2,064 -20.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mazda 12,351 12,251 -0.8 2.3 2.4 0.1 48,494 44,817 -7.6 2.3 2.1 -0.2
Mercedes 19,705 16,909 -14.2 3.7 3.3 -0.4 85,153 84,917 -0.3 4.0 4.1 0.1
MINI 1,799 1,497 -16.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 10,314 7,517 -27.1 0.5 0.4 -0.1
Mitsubishi 2,962 3,240 9.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 9,962 10,240 2.8 0.5 0.5 0.0
Nissan 40,963 28,106 -31.4 7.7 5.5 -2.2 157,495 139,857 -11.2 7.3 6.7 -0.6
Other 939 1,002 6.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 2,874 3,820 32.9 0.1 0.2 0.1
Porsche 3,723 3,364 -9.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 13,879 15,094 8.8 0.6 0.7 0.1
Ram 11,971 13,067 9.2 2.3 2.6 0.3 42,152 50,445 19.7 2.0 2.4 0.4
Subaru 18,943 19,282 1.8 3.6 3.8 0.2 78,154 77,725 -0.5 3.6 3.7 0.1
Tesla 21,270 23,250 9.3 4.0 4.6 0.6 69,507 74,821 7.6 3.2 3.6 0.4
Toyota 81,115 86,057 6.1 15.3 17.0 1.7 348,390 341,068 -2.1 16.2 16.3 0.1
Volkswagen 12,588 11,075 -12.0 2.4 2.2 -0.2 49,037 50,700 3.4 2.3 2.4 0.1
Volvo 2,933 3,248 10.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 13,291 12,862 -3.2 0.6 0.6 0.0
Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

The table above shows new light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in California. Figures are shown for the First Quarters of 2019 and 2020,
and annual totals for 2018 and 2019. Vehicle registrations are recorded based on when the vehicle title information is processed by the state, which
typically occurs after the vehicle is sold. As a result, the data presented above lags the actual sales results at dealerships. New vehicle sales in the
state likely declined by more than 10% in the First Quarter of this year. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow

California Auto Outlook


Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc., PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone 610-640-1233 Email: jfoltz@autooutlook.com
Any material quoted must be attributed to California Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the California New Car Dealers Association. Data source must also be
shown as “Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian” Please contact CNCDA with any questions or comments regarding the publication. Copyright: Auto Outlook, Inc. May, 2020.
At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us.  However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and
contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled.  As a result, Auto Outlook can make
no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data.   Auto Outlook
expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions.  Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to
update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.
California Auto Outlook Publication Sponsored By:
TM

Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market

Released May 2020

REGIONAL MARKETS IN CALIFORNIA

State New Retail Light Vehicle Market Declined by 21 Percent During First Four Months of 2020

Percent Change in New Retail Registrations


New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (excluding fleets) YTD '20, April
North and South California YTD '19 YTD '20 % chg.
YTD 2020 thru April vs. YTD 2019
Statewide Total 556,134 439,182 -21.0%
Cars 245,686 181,252 -26.2%
Light Trucks 310,448 257,930 -16.9% NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Northern California 188,710 148,725 -21.2%
Cars DOWN 26.5%
Cars 80,287 59,013 -26.5%
Light trucks DOWN 17.3%
Light Trucks 108,423 89,712 -17.3%
Southern California 367,424 290,457 -20.9%
Cars 165,399 122,239 -26.1%
Light Trucks 202,025 168,218 -16.7%
Selected Regional Markets
San Francisco Bay 108,669 83,719 -23.0%
Cars 50,514 36,064 -28.6%
Light Trucks 58,155 47,655 -18.1%
LA and Orange Counties 222,574 172,485 -22.5%
Cars 103,873 75,661 -27.2%
Light Trucks 118,701 96,824 -18.4%
San Diego County 47,162 38,370 -18.6%
Cars 19,301 14,537 -24.7%
Light Trucks 27,861 23,833 -14.5%
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Cars DOWN 26.1%
Light trucks DOWN 16.7%

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

California Auto Outlook


Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc., PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone 610-640-1233 Email: jfoltz@autooutlook.com
Any material quoted must be attributed to California Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the California New Car Dealers Association. Data source must also be
shown as “Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian” Please contact CNCDA with any questions or comments regarding the publication. Copyright: Auto Outlook, Inc. May, 2020.
At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us.  However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and
contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled.  As a result, Auto Outlook can make
no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data.   Auto Outlook
expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions.  Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to
update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.