Cite as: J. Dehning et al.

, Science
10.1126/science.abb9789 (2020).

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

 0 .3 5 , 0 .5 1 

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 1
 0 .2 0 , 0 .3 0 

λ = 0 .4 1 μ = 0 .1 2 D = 8 .6 I0 = 19

 0 .1 2 , 0 .2 0 
R0 = λ / μ
R 0 = 3 .4 2 .4 4 .7

 0 .0 6 , 0 .1 3 

λ
I0 σ

μ D

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

λ = λ −μ
*

λ μ

λ μ

*
λ
λ = 28%
*

λ  μ

λ  μ

λ = 0 λ = μ
*

λ μ
D I0
λ

λ μ D

λ 0 = 0 .4 1

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 2
μ = 0 .1 2

λ0 λ1

λ1 = λ 0
λ 1 = 0 .4 1  μ

50% λ 1 = λ 0  / 2 λ 1 = 0 .2 1  μ

D D = 8 .6

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

λ1 = λ1 − μ  0
*

λ = λ −μ
*

10% λ 1 = λ 0  /1  0 λ 1 = 0 .0 4  μ
λ  0
*

λ0

λ  0
*

λ 0 → λ1 t1

λ1 → λ 2
t2
λ2 → λ3 t3

Δ ti )

( ti )
λ 0 → λ1

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 3
 λ0 λ 0 − μ = 0 .3 λ 1 − μ = 0 .1 2
μ = 0 .1 3

λ (t ) λ 1 = 0 .2 5
λ 0 = 0 .4 1  0 .3 2 , 0 .5 1  λ
λ 2 = 0 .1 5
σ
I0

(t ) = λ 2 − μ = 0 .0 2  0
*
λ

λ (t )

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

λ 2 = 0 .1 5 λ 3 = 0 .0 9

(t ) = λ 3 − μ = − 0 .0 3  0  − 0 .0 5 , − 0 .0 2 
*
λ

D = 1 1 .4 3

λ (t ) λ 0 = 0 .4 3

 0 .3 5 , 0 .5 1  λ 1 = 0 .2 5

*
λ
30% 12% 2%
(t ) = λ (t ) − μ
*
λ

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 4
 −3% −5% , −2% 

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

D
D

−3%

D = 1 1 .4

λ (t ) λi

λi

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 5
 dI ( λ − μ )t
= (λ − μ ) I     s o lv e d  b y     I ( t ) = I ( 0 ) e  .
dt
Δt =

dI / dt  ΔI / Δt
S t −1
S t − S t −1 = − λΔ t =: − I t
new
I t −1
N
R t − R t −1 = = :    R t
new
μ Δ tI t − 1

 S t −1 
I t − I t −1 = λ − μ  Δ tI t − 1 = It − Rt
new new
 .
 N 
It
new
It

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

new
D It

Ct

C t = It−D .
new

t = 0 I0

Cˆ t
t  D

I0

λ I
S
R μ λi i = 1, ..., n
ti λ i −1 λi
Δ ti
N
λ
dS SI
= −λ ti Δ ti λi
dt N
dI SI
= λ − μI λi
dt N
dR
= μ I  .
dt

I
R S  N I S / N 1

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 6
 = I t − D (1 − f (t ))
new
Ct , w ith

  π 1   θ
f (t ) = ( 1 − f w )   1 − s in  t − Φ w    ,
  7 2   C (θ ) =  C ( θ )
t

fw Φ w
Cˆ =  Cˆ 
t
θ

θ =  λ i , ti , μ , D , σ , I 0 , fw , Φ w 
σ
p (θ | Cˆ )  p ( Cˆ | θ ) p ( θ ) , p ( Cˆ | θ )
P ( Cˆ t | θ )
p (θ )

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

(
p ( Cˆ t | θ )  S tu d e n tT ν = 4 m e a n = C t ( θ ) , w id t h = σ )
C t ( θ )  .

t Ct (θ )

Cˆ t

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 7
μ  L o g N o r m a l ( lo g ( 1 / 8 ) , 0 .2 )
λ 0  L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 0 .4 ) , 0 .5 )
μ
λ 1  L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 0 .2 ) , 0 .5 )

50%
λ 0  0 .4
λ  L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 0 .4 ) , 0 .5 )
λ 2  L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 1 / 8 ) , 0 .5 )
0 .4 λ −μ 0 .2 7 5

R0 = λ / μ
3 .2
λ 50%
D  L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 8 ) , 0 .2 ) λ 3  L o g N o r m a l ( lo g ( 1 / 1 6 ) , 0 .5 )

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

50% λ3
μ

H a lfC a u c h y ( x , β ) = 2 / π β [1 + ( x / β) 2

 t1  N o rm a l ( 2 0 2 0 / 0 3 / 0 9 , 3 )
O (β ) β

t 2  N o rm a l ( 2 0 2 0 / 0 3 / 1 6 ,1 )

I 0  H a lfC a u c h y ( 1 0 0 )

O (1 0 0 )

σ  H a lfC a u c h y ( 1 0 )
t 3  N o rm a l ( 2 0 2 0 / 0 3 / 2 3,1 )

Δ ti Δ t i  L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 3 ) , 0 .3 )

 50%

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 8
 f w  B e ta ( m e a n = 0 .7 , s td = 0 .1 7 )

Φ w  v o n M is e s ( m e a n = 0 , κ = 0 .0 1 )

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

N

lp p d =  lo g ( p( y os
i
| θ ) p p o s t (θ ) d θ )
i =1

 y1 ,  , y1 
os os
 
N p p o s t ( θ ) = p p o s t (θ | y , M j )

y M j

p post ( θ )

−2

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 9
 Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 10
 Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020
λ

σ
λ λ λ
λ

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 11
 Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020
λ

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 12
 Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020
λ

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 13
 927  9 8 .3 1
819  16 1 3 .4 6
796  17 1 2 .5 3
787  17 1 3 .4 2

 L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 0 .4 ) , 0 .5 )


Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 1 / 8 ) , 0 .2 )

D L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 8 ) , 0 .2 )

I0 H a lfC a u c h y ( 1 0 0 )
 H a lfC a u c h y ( 1 0 )

t1 N o rm a l ( 2 0 2 0 / 0 3 / 0 9 , 3 )

t2 N o rm a l ( 2 0 2 0 / 0 3 / 1 6 ,1 )

t3 N o rm a l ( 2 0 2 0 / 0 3 / 2 3,1 )

Δ ti L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 3 ) , 0 .3 )

0 L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 0 .4 ) , 0 .5 )

1 L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 0 .2 ) , 0 .5 )

2 L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 1 / 8 ) , 0 .5 )

3 L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 1 / 1 6 ) , 0 .5 )

L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 1 / 8 ) , 0 .2 )

D L o g N o rm a l ( lo g ( 8 ) , 0 .2 )

fw B e ta ( m e a n = 0 .7 , s td = 0 .1 7 )

Φw v o n M is e s ( m e a n = 0 ,  = 0 .0 1 )

I0 H a lfC a u c h y ( 1 0 0 )
 H a lfC a u c h y ( 1 0 )

First release: 15 May 2020 www.sciencemag.org (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 14
Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions
Jonas Dehning, Johannes Zierenberg, F. Paul Spitzner, Michael Wibral, Joao Pinheiro Neto, Michael Wilczek and Viola Priesemann

published online May 15, 2020

ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/14/science.abb9789

Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on June 5, 2020

SUPPLEMENTARY http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2020/05/14/science.abb9789.DC1
MATERIALS

RELATED http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/scitransmed/12/541/eabb5883.full
CONTENT
http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/scitransmed/12/534/eabb1469.full
http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/scitransmed/11/499/eaat0360.full
http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/scitransmed/9/396/eaal3653.full
REFERENCES This article cites 36 articles, 10 of which you can access for free
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/14/science.abb9789#BIBL

PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions

Use of this article is subject to the Terms of Service

Science (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published by the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. The title Science is a registered trademark of AAAS.
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science.
No claim to original U.S. Government Works