Sudan:What next?

Governance,
conflict and
genocide
By Rob Kevlihan

Presented at GOAL Strategic

Planning Conference, Khartoum,
Sudan, Sept 2005
Sudan: Country Profile
 Largest country in Africa, bordering 9
other states, straddling the Nile.
 Arab (Muslim) dominance in the North,
“African” (Christian/Animist) South.
 North and South governed separately
under British colonial rule: policy reversed
nine years before independence in 1956.
Conflict Overview
 1955-1972 : Civil war in south. Ended with
southern regional autonomy.
 1983: 10 years peace shattered by introduction
of Islamic Law and administrative division of
south.
 1989: Weak government on verge of peace
toppled by Islamist coup d‟etat - war continues.
 2003: New conflict in Darfur begins on large
scale. Tactics not new, but scale is.
Underlying causes of conflict
 War of visions? A conflict of identities.
 War of resource control? Oil, natural
resources.
 War of political elites? Domestic power
considerations paramount?
 Centre versus Periphery
Sudan
 Salience of
geography
- Size
- Infrastructure,
the Nile and
communication
- Desertification &
Drought
Source for map: HRWW, 1998: Sudan: Global Trade, Local Impact, NY:
HRW
Southern Sudan: Unity or
Secession?
 GOS - 1997 Peace agreement with
Southern factions mandates a referendum
on southern independence in 2 years.
Never occurred.
 Machakos process: autonomy for six
years followed by referendum. Status of
contested areas?
 Commitment of SPLA to unity?
Consequences of Southern
Secession
 Southern independence: More of the
same vs. Constructing new identities.
 Northern rump Islamic state: More of the
same? Ethnic conflict – Darfur, Nuba
mountains, Beja Congress.
 North / South relations?
 Role of regional actors: „Congo-ization?‟
Darfur: New conflict dynamic
 Conflict dynamics: local battle for land;
national battle for control
 A separate peace?
 Centre vs. periphery dynamics
 Attempt to control the centre?
 Dynamics with / impact on southern
Sudan
Other regions
 Eastern Sudan: The role of Eritrea and the
Beja insurgency
 Nuba Mountains: Consolidation of a
separate peace?
 Khartoum: Multi-ethnic city?
 Northern Sudan: Nubia
Hope for the future?

• Africa in
microcosm: The
creation of a
multicultural,
multi-ethnic state.