CPE – CARRERAS PARA PERSONAS QUE TRABAJAN

Alumna: Grecia Caceres Sebastiani

Curso: Casuística y simulació n negocios

Profesor: Julio Cesar Poblete

Tema: La globalizació n en la era de Trump

Critical analysis

Globalization has collided with numerous political and economic obstacles:

uncontrolled growth based on inhuman production without respect for rights;
the lack of adequate regulations in different sectors and markets; starting with
economic issues and going through product exchange.

The possibility of a global recession this year, the technological confrontation

or the cutting of oil supplies, has become a recurring theme in the international
press and among the most famous economists.

I believe that the fact that China can become a global technological giant in
the short term and can jeopardize the US economic authority to intervene,
prohibiting its technology companies from doing Eastern business and
pressing other countries to do so, because the deglobalizing forces that have
begun to make their way in recent times are not limited, much less, to the
American conflict.

The move away from globalization is also happening beyond the conflict
between the United States and China.
Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008, which was mostly a major negative
shock of aggregate demand, the next recession is probably caused by
permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and
technology war. And trying to undo the damage through an endless monetary
and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.
The first potential shock comes from the Sino-US trade and monetary war,
which intensified earlier this month when the administration of US President
Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports and formally
qualified China as a currency manipulator.

The second refers to the cold war between the US and China for technology.
In a rivalry that has all the characteristics of a "Thucydides trap", China and
the US compete for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial
intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, etc. The US has placed Chinese
telecommunications giant Huawei on a "list of entities" reserved for foreign
companies considered a threat to national security. And although Huawei has
received temporary exemptions that allow it to continue using US
components, the Trump administration announced this week that it was adding
46 additional Huawei affiliates to the list.

The third major risk concerns oil supplies. Although oil prices have fallen in
recent weeks, and a recession caused by a commercial, monetary and
technological war would depress energy demand and reduce prices, the US
confrontation with Iran could have the opposite effect. In the event that this
conflict becomes a military conflict, world oil prices could rise and cause a
recession, as happened during previous Middle Eastern conflagrations in
1973, 1979 and 1990.