Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers, Inc.

45th National Convention and Technical Conference

28-30 October 2019, SMX Convention Center, MOA Complex, Pasay City
Theme: “Competency Advancement in the 4th Industrial Revolution (C.E. 4.0)”

Numerical Simulation of Storm Tides

Generated by Historical Typhoons along
Dagupan City Coastline
Imee Bren O. Villalba
Assistant Professor
Water Resources and Coastal Engineering Group
Institute of Civil Engineering
University of the Philippines – Diliman
iovillalba@up.edu.ph; iovillalba@gmail.com
Contents
• Introduction
• Study Area
• Basics of storm surges
• Objective of the Study
• Methodology
• Numerical Models
• Bathymetry
• Model Development and Parameters
• Tides
• Historical Typhoons
• Results
• Conclusions
• Recommendations 1
Dagupan City a coastal town in the Province of Pangasinan located in Lingayen Gulf
A major commercial and financial center
in the province, the city is also the home Dagupan City
of prestigious educational and modern
medical institutions in Northern Luzon

In 2015, a total of 52,466

population live in coastal
barangays which is 30% of
the city’s total population Metro Manila

2
 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
• One of the strongest typhoon in the western North Pacific basin
• The strongest landfalling typhoon in the Philippines (Nov. 8, 2013)
• Maximum sustained windspeed at landfall at Tolosa estimated from satellite is 165 knots (305
kph/85 mps) (JTWC, 2013)
• Translational speed of 15-23 knots (28-43 kph)
• Minimum Pressure – 895 hPa

• Total cost of damage: 95.48B

• Affected population: 16,078,181
• Casualties:
• 6,300 dead
• 28,688 injured
• 1,062 missing
• 93% from Region 8
• 5-7 storm surge
Source: NDRRMC, 2013 3
Expression of Storm Surges
Storm Tide
• Storm Surge

Water level
• Abnormal fluctuation of water
level during the passage of
typhoons
• Sea level anomaly from
astronomical tide time
• Storm Tide Storm Surge

• Sea level including variation of Astronomical Tide

astronomical tides during the Observed Water Level
passage of typhoons
• Used for expression of the
magnitude of disasters Storm Tide = Astronomical Tide + Storm Surge

4
Storm Surge Components
• Barometric Tide (Atmospheric Pressure
Gradient Set-up)
• response of the coastal waters to the low
pressure at the center of the storm.
𝛥𝑝
𝜂𝐵 =
𝛾
• Wind Stress Component
• Storm surge is caused primarily by the strong winds
in a tropical storm. The wind stress tide (wind set-
up) is generated by the frictional drag of the wind
blowing over the water
𝑑𝜂𝑤 𝜏𝑠 − 𝜏𝑏
=
𝑑𝑥 𝜌𝑔 ℎ + 𝜂𝑤 5
Factors affecting Storm Surge
• Central Pressure
• Intensity (wind speed)
• Forward Speed
• Size
• Radius of Maximum Wind
• Angle of Approach
• Width and Slope of Shelf
• Local features – concavity of coastlines, bays, rivers, headlands or
islands

6
Goal of this Study
• To investigate the possible maximum storm tide along the coast of
Dagupan City during the passage of selected historical typhoons using
numerical modelling.

• The results of the study will provide a valuable reference for storm
surge awareness and for preliminary planning of storm surge
mitigation strategies in Dagupan City.

7
 Methodology
Input Storm Tide Model Products
Tropical Cyclone Information Storm Tide / Storm Surge Map

Bathymetry
Time Series

Tide Information
Hydrodynamic Model integrated
with Typhoon Model
8
Numerical Models
• Typhoon Model: Holland 1980 Typhoon Model
𝐴
− 𝐵 𝑝𝑐 = central pressure
Pressure Profile: 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑐 + 𝑝𝑛 − 𝑝𝑐 𝑒 𝑅𝑖 𝑝𝑛 = ambient pressure
0.5
𝐵 𝑅𝑚𝑤 𝐵 2 2 𝑅𝑚𝑤 = radius of
𝑅𝑚𝑤 1−
𝑅𝑖 2
𝑅𝑖 𝑓 𝑅𝑖 𝑓
Velocity Profile: 𝑉= 𝑒 ∗ 𝑉𝑚𝑤 + − max wind
𝑅𝑖 4 2
𝐵 𝑉𝑚𝑤 = max windspeed
𝐴 = 𝑅𝑚𝑤
2
𝑉𝑚𝑤 𝑓= Coriolis parameter
𝐵 =𝜌∗𝑒 1 < B < 2.5
𝑃𝑛 − 𝑃𝑐
the parameter B defines the shape of the profile and A
determines its location relative to the origin.

Typhoon Data: (1) Central Pressure, (2) Maximum Windspeed,

(3) Radius of Maximum Windspeed 9
Numerical Models
• Hydrodynamic Model: ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) Model
• Developed by Leuttich and Westerink
• Based on the shallow water equations and solves the generalized wave
continuity equations and momentum equations on a flexible triangular
mesh
• Currently used by US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for
the computations of flood insurance maps; Used by US Navy and US Army
for tidal and wind-driven circulations

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Numerical Models
ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) Model
The governing equations in spherical coordinates are as follows:

Continuity Equation: 𝜕𝜁 1 𝜕𝑈𝐻 𝜕 𝑉𝐻𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝜑 Represented by the Generalized

+ + = 0, Wave Continuity Equation (GWCE)
𝜕𝑡 𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑 𝜕𝜆 𝜕𝜑

GWCE: 𝜕(𝑃𝐶𝐸) PCE – Primitive Continuity Equation

+ 𝜏𝑜 𝑃𝐶𝐸 − ∇ ∙ 𝑀𝑐 = 0
𝜕𝑡 Mc – Conservative Momentum Equation
Momentum Equations:
1
𝜕𝑈 1 𝜕𝑈 1 𝜕𝑈 tan 𝜑 1 𝜕 𝑝𝑠 1 𝜏𝑠𝜆 𝐶𝑓 𝑈2 + 2
𝑉 2
+ 𝑈 + 𝑉 − 𝑈+𝑓 =− + 𝑔 𝜁 − 𝛼𝜂 + 𝑀𝜆 + − 𝑈
𝜕𝑡 𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑 𝜕𝜆 𝑅 𝜕𝜑 𝑅 𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠 𝜑 𝜕𝜆 𝜌0 𝐻 𝜌0 𝐻 𝐻
1
𝜕𝑉 1 𝜕𝑉 1 𝜕𝑉 tan 𝜑 1 𝜕 𝑝𝑠 1 𝜏𝑠𝜑 𝐶𝑓 𝑈2 + 2
𝑉 2
+ 𝑈 + 𝑉 + 𝑈+𝑓 𝑈 = − + 𝑔 𝜁 − 𝛼𝜂 + 𝑀𝜑 + − 𝑉,
𝜕𝑡 𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑 𝜕𝜆 𝑅 𝜕𝜑 𝑅 𝑅 𝜕𝜑 𝜌0 𝐻 𝜌0 𝐻 𝐻
11
Bathymetry
• National Mapping and Resource
Information Authority
Bathymetric Chart 4209
• General Bathymetric Chart of
the Oceans GEBCO
• Relatively shallow and mild
sloping bathymetry along coast
of Dagupan City

12
Model Domain and Mesh
~200 m along the coasts
~1000 m in the ocean boundary
~22,895 nodes; 44,142 elements

13
Model Parameters
• ADCIRC
• Manning’s roughness – 0.02
• Lateral viscosity – 2.0 m2/s
• Generalized Wave Continuity Equation (GWCE) factor – 0.005
• Wave equation time weighting factors – 0.350, 0.300, 0.350
• Time step - 2s

14
 Tides
• Six Tidal Constituents – K1, M2, O1, P1, Q1, and S2 San Fernando,
• Actual Data: NAMRIA San Fernando Station La Union
• RMSE: 6.8 cm

Dagupan City

Time series of actual tide data and simulated tide at San Fernando,
La Union from September 1-30, 2016 15
Historical Typhoons
• 150 km search radius centered in
Dagupan City
• Japan Meteorological Agency
(JMA)
• 97 typhoons from 1953-2019
• Typhoons were ranked according
to highest windspeed, lowest
central pressure and closest
distance to the study area
• Typhoons originate in either the
Pacific Ocean or the West
Philippine Sea http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/index.html.en 16
Historical Typhoons
• Track A – tracks north of the
study area
• Track B – tracks south of the
study area
• Track C – tracks directed
towards north; east of the study
area
• Track D – tracks directed
towards north; west of the
study area

17
Historical Typhoons
• Minimum recorded central pressure – 940 hPa
• Highest recorded 10-min maximum windspeed – 45 m/s
• Average recorded 10-min maximum windspeed – 30 m/s

18
Historical Typhoons
Selected historical typhoons based on the
track, distance, windspeed, and central
pressure
Year Name Central Max 10-min
Pressure near sustained
Study Area windspeed near
(hPa) study area (mps)
2016 SARIKA 965 40
2003 LINFA 985 25 TY Vicki 1998
1998 VICKI 980 30 Dagupan City
2008 HALONG 975 30
2011 NALGAE 965 40

Typhoon Data used in the simulation was based from

the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Data
19
 Results Typhoon Vicki 1998 surface plot for simulated maximum
water surface elevation (WSE)
• Typhoon Vicki (local name Gading)
• Originated in the West Philippine Sea
• Traversed the Lingayen Gulf on Sept. 19, 1998
• 30 m/s max 10-min sustained windspeed, 980
hPa Central Pressure
• 1.1 m max storm tide

20
 Results Typhoon Linfa 2003 surface plot for simulated maximum
water surface elevation (WSE)
• Typhoon Linfa (Tropical Storm Chedeng)
• Formed in West Philippine Sea
• Crossed Lingayen Gulf on May 27, 2003
• 25 m/s max 10-min sustained windspeed; 985
hPa central pressure
• 0.4 m storm tide

21
 Results Typhoon Halong 2008 surface plot for simulated maximum
water surface elevation (WSE)

• Typhoon Halong (Tropical Storm Cosme)

• Formed in the West Philippine Sea
• Traversed Lingayen Gulf on May 17, 2008
• With 30 m/s 10-min max sustained windspeed;
975 hPa central pressure
• 0.7 m storm tide

22
 Results Typhoon Nalgae 2011 surface plot for simulated maximum
water surface elevation (WSE)
• Typhoon Nalgae (Typhoon Quiel)
• Formed in Pacific Ocean
• Crossed Lingayen Gulf on October 1, 2011
• 40 m/s max 10-min sustained windspeed; 965
hPa
• 0.8 m storm tide

23
 Results Typhoon Sarika 2016 surface plot for simulated maximum
water surface elevation (WSE)

• Typhoon Sarika (Typhoon Karen)

• Formed in Pacific Ocean
• Crossed Lingayen Gulf on October 16, 2016
• 40 m/s max 10-min sustained windspeed;
965 hPa central Pressure
• 0.4 m storm tide

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Results

25
Conclusions
• To investigate the storm tide brought by historical typhoons along Dagupan
Coast, the ADCIRC mode is used in simulating the storm tides of the selected
historical typhoons

• Analysis of historical typhoons show that no typhoon with 10-min maximum

sustained windspeed of 55 m/s (200kph) which is a Category 5 typhoon passed
through the study area.

• The highest 10-min maximum windspeed of the recorded typhoon traversing

the Lingayen Gulf is only 45 m/s

• Typhoons that traversed the study area either originated in the Pacific Ocean of
the West Philippine Sea. Relatively, typhoons from the West Philippine Sea are
weaker than those coming from the Pacific Ocean.
26
Conclusions
• From the ranking of typhoons based on the distance, track, maximum 10-min
sustained windspeed, and central pressure, five (5) typhoons were selected
and simulated in this study.

• Among the selected typhoons, three typhoons originated in the West

Philippine Sea.

• From the simulation of the five (5) selected typhoons, the simulated
maximum storm tide reached a storm tide of 1.1 meter produced by Typhoon
Vicki 1998

• The output of this study will be helpful for storm surge awareness and
preliminary planning of coastal disaster mitigation strategies.

27
Recommendations
• Currently, there are no water level gaging stations in Lingayen Gulf. Due to the lack
of available water level data, validation of the simulated storm tide is not
performed in this study. It is recommended that to improve future coastal hazard
studies, a water level monitoring station should be considered for installation in
Lingayen Gulf.

• To numerically investigate the possible ranges of storm tide that would be

generated along the coast of Dagupan for further coastal hazard assessment,
synthetic typhoons of different typhoon parameters be simulated

• This study only considered storm tide, and as such it is also recommended that the
effects of river discharges and waves be considered in future studies.
28
Acknowledgement
• The author would like to acknowledge the National Mapping and Resource
Information Authority (NAMRIA) for providing the bathymetric data and tide data
of this study.

• The author would also wish to thank the Institute of Civil Engineering, University
of the Philippines Diliman for the support in this research study.

29
References
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p://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html.
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best_tracks
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tp://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/12-others/2926-y-it-happened-learning-from-typhoon-yolanda.
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Thank you for listening!

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