Ca

2016
2017
Toneladas Anuales 2018
Años Res Pollo Cerdo
2016 910,052.00 ### 356,458.00
2017 905,582.00 ### 371,360.00
2018 935,025.00 ### 410,000.00 Carne de C
35%
Departamento Toneladas Anuales 2016
Años Res Pollo Cerdo 2017
2016 318,518.20 517,623.40 124,760.30 2018
2017 316,953.70 547,249.15 129,976.00
2018 327,258.75 570,376.80 143,500.00
Carne de P
Granja Toneladas Anuales 15%
Años Res Pollo Cerdo 2016
2016 47,777.73 77,643.51 18,714.05 2017
2017 47,543.06 82,087.37 19,496.40 2018
2018 49,088.81 85,556.52 21,525.00
 Carne de Res
Para asar S/Barriga Cadera Hueso Otros
14333.32 3822.22 2388.89 7166.66 20066.65 30%
14262.92 3803.44 2377.15 7131.46 19968.08 8%
14726.64 3927.11 2454.44 7363.32 20617.30 5%
15%
42%

Carne de Cerdo
Milanesa Costillas Chorizo Otros 35% Milanesa
6549.92 2807.11 1871.40 7485.62 15% Costillas
6823.74 2924.46 1949.64 7798.56 10% Chorizo
7533.75 3228.75 2152.50 8610.00 40% Otros

Carne de Pollo
Alas Pechuga Hueso Otros 10% Alas
7764.35 38821.76 11646.53 19410.88 50% Pechuga
8208.74 41043.69 12313.11 20521.84 15% Hueso
8555.65 42778.26 12833.48 21389.13 25% Otros
Asar
S/barriga
Cadera
Hueso
Otros
 Mes Unidades Res Unidades Cerdo Unidades Pollo
Unidad
Jan-16 2757967.44 976656.89 4052093.98 16000000.00
Feb-16 5759284.94 712687.19 2956898.66 14000000.00
Mar-16 1784567.16 1740714.05 7222123.73
Apr-16 4380301.22 2296002.13 9525982.45 12000000.00
May-16 2271267.30 932230.91 3867773.09
10000000.00
Jun-16 1216750.34 1181535.17 4902122.35
Jul-16 6813801.90 1181535.17 4902122.35 8000000.00
Aug-16 3244667.57 2253206.94 9348427.62
6000000.00
Sep-16 2839084.13 2170348.51 9004652.72
Oct-16 6732685.21 1576787.19 6542000.53 4000000.00
Nov-16 3731367.71 2210420.32 9170908.39
2000000.00
Dec-16 6245985.08 1481920.53 6148404.14
Jan-17 5974437.00 499755.83 2104165.03 0.00
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16
Feb-17 5301261.00 954910.06 4020540.09
Mar-17 1178058.00 2073213.84 8729030.82
Apr-17 3029292.00 2335930.50 9835169.41
May-17 8246406.00 842682.11 3548017.08 Unidades
Jun-17 1682940.00 2612786.67 11000840.78
Jul-17 7657377.00 2239764.30 9430272.60
Aug-17 1682940.00 1416053.04 5962130.11
Sep-17 3029292.00 1372768.07 5779883.69
Oct-17 4628085.00 1416053.04 5962130.11
Nov-17 2440263.00 2578042.16 10854553.01
Dec-17 2692704.00 1154440.37 4860639.76
Jan-18 2195892.05 3220377.33 12800198.72
Feb-18 2904244.32 642518.55 2553851.39
Mar-18 1062528.41 1700512.11 6759112.59
Apr-18 4816795.45 3401922.27 13521794.69
May-18 7083522.73 1545399.20 6142577.36
Jun-18 5029301.14 1665701.90 6620750.65
Jul-18 6587676.14 610787.47 2427728.23
Aug-18 6941852.27 1029417.27 4091677.53
Sep-18 2479232.95 1032959.01 4105755.10
Oct-18 4533454.55 3101751.32 12328689.84
Nov-18 2125056.82 2660020.67 10572920.42
Dec-18 3329255.68 913632.90 3631463.49
 Unidades Producidas 2016-2018

Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19

Unidades Res Unidades Cerdo Unidades Pollo

 Res

Proporción Unidades
Mes
por demanda Vendidas

Jan-16 0.0577 2757967.436 carne

Feb-16 0.1205 5759284.941 2016 47777.73
Mar-16 0.0374 1784567.165 2017 47543.06
Apr-16 0.0917 4380301.222 2018 49088.81
May-16 0.0475 2271267.301 30% Asar
Jun-16 0.0255 1216750.340 8% S/barriga
Jul-16 0.1426 6813801.902 5% Cadera
Aug-16 0.0679 3244667.572 15% Hueso
Sep-16 0.0594 2839084.126 42% Otros
Oct-16 0.1409 6732685.212
Nov-16 0.0781 3731367.708 2016 47777730.00
Dec-16 0.1307 6245985.076 2017 47543055.00
Jan-17 0.1257 5974437.000 2018 49088812.50
Feb-17 0.1115 5301261.000 2019 37566714.05
Mar-17 0.0248 1178058.000
Apr-17 0.0637 3029292.000
May-17 0.1735 8246406.000
Jun-17 0.0354 1682940.000
Jul-17 0.1611 7657377.000
Aug-17 0.0354 1682940.000
Sep-17 0.0637 3029292.000
Oct-17 0.0973 4628085.000
Nov-17 0.0513 2440263.000
Dec-17 0.0566 2692704.000
Jan-18 0.0447 2195892.045
Feb-18 0.0592 2904244.318
Mar-18 0.0216 1062528.409
Apr-18 0.0981 4816795.455
May-18 0.1443 7083522.727
Jun-18 0.1025 5029301.136
Jul-18 0.1342 6587676.136
Aug-18 0.1414 6941852.273
Sep-18 0.0505 2479232.955
Oct-18 0.0924 4533454.545
Nov-18 0.0433 2125056.818
Dec-18 0.0678 3329255.682
Jan-19 3329255.682
Feb-19 2927856.061
Mar-19 3195455.808
Apr-19 3141935.859
May-19 3088415.909
Jun-19 3141935.859
Jul-19 3124095.875
Aug-19 3118149.214
Sep-19 3128060.316
Oct-19 3123435.135
Nov-19 3123214.889
Dec-19 3124903.447
 Mes Asar S/barriga Cadera Hueso Otros 4000000.000

3500000.000

Jan-16 827390.231 220637.395 137898.372 413695.115 1158346.323

3000000.000
Feb-16 1727785.482 460742.795 287964.247 863892.741 2418899.675
Mar-16 535370.149 142765.373 89228.358 267685.075 749518.209 2500000.000
Apr-16 1314090.367 350424.098 219015.061 657045.183 1839726.513
2000000.000
May-16 681380.190 181701.384 113563.365 340690.095 953932.266
Jun-16 365025.102 97340.027 60837.517 182512.551 511035.143 1500000.000
Jul-16 2044140.570 545104.152 340690.095 1022070.285 2861796.799
Aug-16 973400.272 259573.406 162233.379 486700.136 1362760.380 1000000.000
Sep-16 851725.238 227126.730 141954.206 425862.619 1192415.333
500000.000
Oct-16 2019805.564 538614.817 336634.261 1009902.782 2827727.789
Nov-16 1119410.312 298509.417 186568.385 559705.156 1567174.437 0.000
Jul-15 Jan-1
Dec-16 1873795.523 499678.806 312299.254 936897.761 2623313.732
Jan-17 1792331.100 477954.960 298721.850 896165.550 2509263.540
Feb-17 1590378.300 424100.880 265063.050 795189.150 2226529.620
Mar-17 353417.400 94244.640 58902.900 176708.700 494784.360
Apr-17 908787.600 242343.360 151464.600 454393.800 1272302.640
May-17 2473921.800 659712.480 412320.300 1236960.900 3463490.520
Jun-17 504882.000 134635.200 84147.000 252441.000 706834.800
Jul-17 2297213.100 612590.160 382868.850 1148606.550 3216098.340
Aug-17 504882.000 134635.200 84147.000 252441.000 706834.800
Sep-17 908787.600 242343.360 151464.600 454393.800 1272302.640
Oct-17 1388425.500 370246.800 231404.250 694212.750 1943795.700
Nov-17 732078.900 195221.040 122013.150 366039.450 1024910.460
Dec-17 807811.200 215416.320 134635.200 403905.600 1130935.680
Jan-18 658767.614 175671.364 109794.602 329383.807 922274.659
Feb-18 871273.295 232339.545 145212.216 435636.648 1219782.614
Mar-18 318758.523 85002.273 53126.420 159379.261 446261.932
Apr-18 1445038.636 385343.636 240839.773 722519.318 2023054.091
May-18 2125056.818 566681.818 354176.136 1062528.409 2975079.545
Jun-18 1508790.341 402344.091 251465.057 754395.170 2112306.477
Jul-18 1976302.841 527014.091 329383.807 988151.420 2766823.977
Aug-18 2082555.682 555348.182 347092.614 1041277.841 2915577.955
Sep-18 743769.886 198338.636 123961.648 371884.943 1041277.841
Oct-18 1360036.364 362676.364 226672.727 680018.182 1904050.909
Nov-18 637517.045 170004.545 106252.841 318758.523 892523.864
Dec-18 998776.705 266340.455 166462.784 499388.352 1398287.386
Jan-19 998776.705 266340.455 166462.784 499388.352 1398287.386
Feb-19 878356.818 234228.485 146392.803 439178.409 1229699.545
Mar-19 958636.742 255636.465 159772.790 479318.371 1342091.439
Apr-19 942580.758 251354.869 157096.793 471290.379 1319613.061
May-19 926524.773 247073.273 154420.795 463262.386 1297134.682
Jun-19 942580.758 251354.869 157096.793 471290.379 1319613.061
Jul-19 937228.763 249927.670 156204.794 468614.381 1312120.268
Aug-19 935444.764 249451.937 155907.461 467722.382 1309622.670
Sep-19 938418.095 250244.825 156403.016 469209.047 1313785.333
Oct-19 937030.541 249874.811 156171.757 468515.270 1311842.757
Nov-19 936964.467 249857.191 156160.744 468482.233 1311750.253
Dec-19 937471.034 249992.276 156245.172 468735.517 1312459.448
 Unidades Producidad 2016-2019
4000000.000

3500000.000

3000000.000

2500000.000

2000000.000

1500000.000

1000000.000

500000.000

0.000
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Asar S/barriga Cadera Hueso Otros

De acuerdo al analisis realizado a la grafica
correspondiente se evidencia que esta grafica
corresponde a una serie de tiempo estacional la cual
debe ser analizada por meediod el metodo de
suavización exponencial triple.

REVISAR CARTILLAS DE SEMANA 2 Y 3 DONDE EXPLICAN

LAS SERIES DE TIEMPO Y LOS METODOS A UTILIZAR DE
ACUERDO A CADA UNA
 SUAVIACION ESPONENCIAL SIMPLE
Mes Unidades Res Pronostico et et^2
Jan-16 2757967.44 2757.967436333 a 0.25
Feb-16 5759284.94 691560.3346604 5067724.61 5067724.61
Mar-16 1784567.16 1958491.48614 -173924.32 173924.321
SUAVIACI
Apr-16 4380301.22 1915010.405776 2465290.82 2465290.82
May-16 2271267.30 2531333.109935 -260065.81 260065.809 9000000.00
Jun-16 1216750.34 2466316.657578 -1249566.32 1249566.32
8000000.00
Jul-16 6813801.90 2153925.078074 4659876.82 4659876.82
Aug-16 3244667.57 3318894.283937 -74226.71 74226.7118 7000000.00
Sep-16 2839084.13 3300337.6059919 -461253.48 461253.48
6000000.00
Oct-16 6732685.21 3185024.235903 3547660.98 3547660.98
Nov-16 3731367.71 4071939.479983 -340571.77 340571.772 5000000.00
Dec-16 6245985.08 3986796.536982 2259188.54 2259188.54
Jan-17 5974437.00 4551593.671837 1422843.33 1422843.33 4000000.00
Feb-17 5301261.00 4907304.503878 393956.50 393956.496
3000000.00
Mar-17 1178058.00 5005793.6279083 -3827735.63 3827735.63
Apr-17 3029292.00 4048859.720931 -1019567.72 1019567.72 2000000.00
May-17 8246406.00 3793967.790698 4452438.21 4452438.21
Jun-17 1000000.00
1682940.00 4907077.343024 -3224137.34 3224137.34
Jul-17 7657377.00 4101043.007268 3556333.99 3556333.99 0.00
Aug-17 1682940.00 4990126.5054509 -3307186.51 3307186.51 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-
Sep-17 3029292.00 4163329.879088 -1134037.88 1134037.88
Oct-17 4628085.00 3879820.409316 748264.59 748264.591
Nov-17 2440263.00 4066886.5569871 -1626623.56 1626623.56
Dec-17 2692704.00 3660230.66774 -967526.67 967526.668
Jan-18 2195892.05 3418349.001 -1222456.96 1222456.96
Feb-18 2904244.32 3112734.762 -208490.44 208490.444
Mar-18 1062528.41 3060612.151 -1998083.74 1998083.74
Apr-18 4816795.45 2561091.216 2255704.24 2255704.24
May-18 7083522.73 3125017.275 3958505.45 3958505.45
Jun-18 5029301.14 4114643.638 914657.50 914657.498
Jul-18 6587676.14 4343308.013 2244368.12 2244368.12
Aug-18 6941852.27 4904400.044 2037452.23 2037452.23
Sep-18 2479232.95 5413763.101 -2934530.15 2934530.15
Oct-18 4533454.55 4680130.564 -146676.02 146676.019
Nov-18 2125056.82 4643461.560 -2518404.74 2518404.74
Dec-18 3329255.68 4013860.374 -684604.69 684604.692
Jan-19 3842709.201 -3842709.20 3842709.2
Feb-19 3885496.994 -3885496.99 3885496.99
Mar-19 3874800.046 -3874800.05 3874800.05
Apr-19 3877474.283 -3877474.28 3877474.28
May-19 3876805.724 -3876805.72 3876805.72
Jun-19 3876972.864 -3876972.86 3876972.86
Jul-19 3876931.079 -3876931.08 3876931.08
Aug-19 3876941.525 -3876941.53 3876941.53
Sep-19 3876938.913 -3876938.91 3876938.91
Oct-19 3876939.566 -3876939.57 3876939.57
Nov-19 3876939.403 -3876939.40 3876939.4
Dec-19 3876939.444 -3876939.44 3876939.44

me 360,131.30
mae 1,924,683.896
 PRO
N=3 Mes
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
SUAVIACION ESPONENCIAL SIMPLE
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Aug-17
Unidades Res Pronostico
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
 PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Unidades Res Pronostico et et^2
2757967.436
5759284.941
1784567.165 PROMEDIO MOVIL SIM
4380301.222 3433939.847 946361.375 946361.375 9000000.000
2271267.301 3974717.776 -1703450.475 1703450.475
1216750.340 2812045.229 -1595294.890 1595294.890 8000000.000
6813801.902 2622772.954 4191028.947 4191028.947
7000000.000
3244667.572 3433939.847 -189272.275 189272.275
2839084.126 3758406.604 -919322.479 919322.479 6000000.000
6732685.212 4299184.533 2433500.679 2433500.679
5000000.000
3731367.708 4272145.637 -540777.929 540777.929
6245985.076 4434379.015 1811606.061 1811606.061 4000000.000
5974437.000 5570012.666 404424.334 404424.334
5301261.000 5317263.261 -16002.261 16002.261 3000000.000
1178058.000 5840561.025 -4662503.025 4662503.025
2000000.000
3029292.000 4151252.000 -1121960.000 1121960.000
8246406.000 3169537.000 5076869.000 5076869.000 1000000.000
1682940.000 4151252.000 -2468312.000 2468312.000
0.000
7657377.000 4319546.000 3337831.000 3337831.000 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-1
1682940.000 5862241.000 -4179301.000 4179301.000
Unidades Res Pro
3029292.000 3674419.000 -645127.000 645127.000
4628085.000 4123203.000 504882.000 504882.000
2440263.000 3113439.000 -673176.000 673176.000
2692704.000 3365880.000 -673176.000 673176.000
2195892.045 3253684.000 -1057791.955 1057791.955
2904244.318 2442953.015 461291.303 461291.303
1062528.409 2597613.455 -1535085.045 1535085.045
4816795.455 2054221.591 2762573.864 2762573.864
7083522.727 2927856.061 4155666.667 4155666.667
5029301.136 4320948.864 708352.273 708352.273
6587676.136 5643206.439 944469.697 944469.697
6941852.273 6233500.000 708352.273 708352.273
2479232.955 6186276.515 -3707043.561 3707043.561
4533454.545 5336253.788 -802799.242 802799.242
2125056.818 4651513.258 -2526456.439 2526456.439
3329255.682 3045914.773 283340.909 283340.909
3329255.682 3329255.682 0.000 0.000
2927856.061 2927856.061 0.000 0.000
3195455.808
3141935.859
3088415.909
3141935.859
3124095.875
 3118149.214
3128060.316
3123435.135
3123214.889
3124903.447

me -8,675.794
mae 1,749,921.271
 PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
Mes Unidades Res Pronostico
Jan-16 2757967.436
Feb-16 5759284.941
PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE Mar-16 1784567.165
Apr-16 4380301.222 3471794.302
May-16 2271267.301 3479905.971
Jun-16 1216750.340 3066210.856
Jul-16 6813801.902 1954912.212
Aug-16 3244667.572 4120727.817
Sep-16 2839084.126 4469529.581
Oct-16 6732685.212 3398789.282
Nov-16 3731367.708 4826443.014
Dec-16 6245985.076 4842666.351
Jan-17 5974437.000 5288808.143
Feb-17 5301261.000 5858749.301
Mar-17 1178058.000 5665003.808
Apr-17 3029292.000 3306977.100
May-17 8246406.000 2515995.300
Jun-17 1682940.000 5452725.600
-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jul-17 7657377.000 4442961.600
Aug-17 1682940.000 5326505.100
Unidades Res Pronostico Sep-17 3029292.000 4072714.800
Oct-17 4628085.000 2953559.700
Nov-17 2440263.000 3694053.300
Dec-17 2692704.000 3374294.700
Jan-18 2195892.045 2785265.700
Feb-18 2904244.318 2419053.923
Mar-18 1062528.409 2599749.377
Apr-18 4816795.455 1912551.136
May-18 7083522.727 3123833.523
Jun-18 5029301.136 5574732.386
Jul-18 6587676.136 5829739.205
Aug-18 6941852.273 6013910.795
Sep-18 2479232.955 6608926.705
Oct-18 4533454.545 4675125.000
Nov-18 2125056.818 3952605.682
Dec-18 3329255.682 3123833.523
Jan-19 3329255.682 2967996.023
Feb-19 2927856.061 3208835.795
Mar-19 3128555.871
Apr-19 3068345.928
May-19 3106478.892
Jun-19 3093433.404
Jul-19 3096142.852
Aug-19 3096092.677
Sep-19 3095846.820
Oct-19 3095974.766
Nov-19 3095935.378
Dec-19 3095942.277

me -8.676
mae 1,749.92
PONDERADO
et et^2
w1 0.1
w2 0.4
w3 0.5
946.361 946.361
-1703.450 1703.450 PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
-1595.295 1595.295
4191.029 4191.029 9000000.000

-189.272 189.272 8000000.000

-919.322 919.322
2433.501 2433.501 7000000.000
-540.778 540.778
6000000.000
1811.606 1811.606
404.424 404.424 5000000.000
-16.002 16.002
-4662.503 4662.503 4000000.000
-1121.960 1121.960
3000000.000
5076.869 5076.869
-2468.312 2468.312 2000000.000
3337.831 3337.831
-4179.301 4179.301 1000000.000
-645.127 645.127
0.000
504.882 504.882 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-
-673.176 673.176
Unidades Res Pronostico
-673.176 673.176
-1057.792 1057.792 ANALISIS DE LA INFORMACIÓN: Dado el analisis donde se evidencio por medio de la g
461.291 461.291 aleatorio se eligieron los siguientes metodos para hallar los correspondientes pronosti
_ Promedio movil simple.
-1535.085 1535.085 _ Promedio movil ponderado.
2762.574 2762.574 _ Suavización exponencial simple.
4155.667 4155.667 Donde se logro evidenciar que el metodo que arroja el menor error es el de promedio
demanda para el 2019 de carne de res.
708.352 708.352
944.470 944.470
708.352 708.352
-3707.044 3707.044
-802.799 802.799
-2526.456 2526.456
283.341 283.341
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
O MOVIL PONDERADO

Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

idades Res Pronostico

e se evidencio por medio de la grafica una serie de tiempo estacionaria con un patron
ar los correspondientes pronosticos.

l menor error es el de promedio movil simple por lo cual es el mejor pronostico de la

Cerdo

Proporción Unidades
Mes
por demanda Vendidas

Jan-16 0.0522 976656.891 Carne Cerdo

Feb-16 0.0381 712687.185 2016 18714.05
Mar-16 0.0930 1740714.046 2017 19496.40
Apr-16 0.1227 2296002.130 2018 21525.00
May-16 0.0498 932230.907 35% Milanesa
Jun-16 0.0631 1181535.175 15% Costillas
Jul-16 0.0631 1181535.175 10% Chorizo
Aug-16 0.1204 2253206.936 40% Otros
Sep-16 0.1160 2170348.509
Oct-16 0.0843 1576787.195 2016 18714045.00
Nov-16 0.1181 2210420.320 2017 19496400.00
Dec-16 0.0792 1481920.532 2018 21525000.00
Jan-17 0.0256 499755.831 2019 23074596.39
Feb-17 0.0490 954910.060
Mar-17 0.1063 2073213.837
Apr-17 0.1198 2335930.498
May-17 0.0432 842682.109
Jun-17 0.1340 2612786.666
Jul-17 0.1149 2239764.304
Aug-17 0.0726 1416053.042
Sep-17 0.0704 1372768.075
Oct-17 0.0726 1416053.042
Nov-17 0.1322 2578042.162
Dec-17 0.0592 1154440.373
Jan-18 0.1496 3220377.329
Feb-18 0.0298 642518.549
Mar-18 0.0790 1700512.111
Apr-18 0.1580 3401922.270
May-18 0.0718 1545399.201
Jun-18 0.0774 1665701.898
Jul-18 0.0284 610787.467
Aug-18 0.0478 1029417.265
Sep-18 0.0480 1032959.015
Oct-18 0.1441 3101751.320
Nov-18 0.1236 2660020.674
Dec-18 0.0424 913632.901
Jan-19 0.0241 1830999.85
Feb-19 0.1408 1744022.71
Mar-19 0.0566 1947882.03
Apr-19 0.1548 1969626.32
May-19 0.0504 1938368.24
Jun-19 0.1527 1951822.85
Jul-19 0.0805 1948221.36
Aug-19 0.0791 1948676.64
Sep-19 0.1371 1948809.15
Oct-19 0.0791 1948697.37
Nov-19 0.0704 1948740.01
Dec-19 0.1149 1948729.87
 Mes Milanesa Costillas Chorrizo Otros
1600000.00
Jan-16 341829.91 146498.53 97665.69 390662.76
Feb-16 249440.51 106903.08 71268.72 285074.87 1400000.00
Mar-16 609249.92 261107.11 174071.40 696285.62
Apr-16 803600.75 344400.32 229600.21 918400.85 1200000.00
May-16 326280.82 139834.64 93223.09 372892.36
Jun-16 413537.31 177230.28 118153.52 472614.07 1000000.00
Jul-16 413537.31 177230.28 118153.52 472614.07
Aug-16 788622.43 337981.04 225320.69 901282.77 800000.00
Sep-16 759621.98 325552.28 217034.85 868139.40
Oct-16 551875.52 236518.08 157678.72 630714.88 600000.00

Nov-16 773647.11 331563.05 221042.03 884168.13

400000.00
Dec-16 518672.19 222288.08 148192.05 592768.21
Jan-17 174914.54 74963.37 49975.58 199902.33
200000.00
Feb-17 334218.52 143236.51 95491.01 381964.02
Mar-17 725624.84 310982.08 207321.38 829285.53 0.00
Apr-17 817575.67 350389.57 233593.05 934372.20 Jul-15 Ja
May-17 294938.74 126402.32 84268.21 337072.84
Jun-17 914475.33 391918.00 261278.67 1045114.67
Jul-17 783917.51 335964.65 223976.43 895905.72
Aug-17 495618.56 212407.96 141605.30 566421.22
Sep-17 480468.83 205915.21 137276.81 549107.23
Oct-17 495618.56 212407.96 141605.30 566421.22
Nov-17 902314.76 386706.32 257804.22 1031216.86
Dec-17 404054.13 173166.06 115444.04 461776.15
Jan-18 1127132.07 483056.60 322037.73 1288150.93
Feb-18 224881.49 96377.78 64251.85 257007.42
Mar-18 595179.24 255076.82 170051.21 680204.84
Apr-18 1190672.79 510288.34 340192.23 1360768.91
May-18 540889.72 231809.88 154539.92 618159.68
Jun-18 582995.66 249855.28 166570.19 666280.76
Jul-18 213775.61 91618.12 61078.75 244314.99
Aug-18 360296.04 154412.59 102941.73 411766.91
Sep-18 361535.66 154943.85 103295.90 413183.61
Oct-18 1085612.96 465262.70 310175.13 1240700.53
Nov-18 931007.24 399003.10 266002.07 1064008.27
Dec-18 319771.52 137044.94 91363.29 365453.16
Jan-19 640849.95 274649.98 183099.99 732399.94
Feb-19 610407.95 261603.41 174402.27 697609.08
Mar-19 681758.71 292182.30 194788.20 779152.81
Apr-19 689369.21 295443.95 196962.63 787850.53
May-19 678428.89 290755.24 193836.82 775347.30
Jun-19 683138.00 292773.43 195182.29 780729.14
Jul-19 681877.47 292233.20 194822.14 779288.54
Aug-19 682036.82 292301.50 194867.66 779470.66
Sep-19 682083.20 292321.37 194880.91 779523.66
Oct-19 682044.08 292304.61 194869.74 779478.95
Nov-19 682059.00 292311.00 194874.00 779496.00
Dec-19 682055.45 292309.48 194872.99 779491.95
 Unidades Producidas Cerdo 2016-2018
1600000.00

1400000.00

1200000.00

1000000.00

800000.00

600000.00

400000.00

200000.00

0.00
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19

Milanesa Costillas Chorrizo Otros

Oct-18 May-19
 SUAVIZACION SIMPLE
Mes Unidades Cerdo Pronostico et et^2
Jan-16 976656.89 2757.967436333 a 0.25
Feb-16 712687.19 246232.6983206 466454.49 466454.487
Mar-16 1740714.05 362846.320011 1377867.73 1377867.73 Meto
Apr-16 2296002.13 707313.2515686 1588688.88 1588688.88 4000000.00
May-16 932230.91 1104485.471106 -172254.56 172254.564
Jun-16 1181535.17 1061421.829993 120113.34 120113.345 3500000.00
Jul-16 1181535.17 1091450.166237 90085.01 90085.0087
3000000.00
Aug-16 2253206.94 1113971.418419 1139235.52 1139235.52
Sep-16 2170348.51 1398780.29771 771568.21 771568.211 2500000.00
Oct-16 1576787.19 1591672.350551 -14885.16 14885.1559
Nov-16 2210420.32 1587951.061579 622469.26 622469.258 2000000.00
Dec-16 1481920.53 1743568.376153 -261647.84 261647.844
1500000.00
Jan-17 499755.83 1678156.415166 -1178400.58 1178400.58
Feb-17 954910.06 1383556.269209 -428646.21 428646.209 1000000.00
Mar-17 2073213.84 1276394.716877 796819.12 796819.12
Apr-17 500000.00
2335930.50 1475599.496898 860331.00 860331.001
May-17 842682.11 1690682.247135 -848000.14 848000.138 0.00
Jun-17 2612786.67 1478682.212679 1134104.45 1134104.45 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Ma
Jul-17 2239764.30 1762208.325885 477555.98 477555.978 U
Aug-17 1416053.04 1881597.320438 -465544.28 465544.278
Sep-17 1372768.07 1765211.250886 -392443.18 392443.176
Oct-17 1416053.04 1667100.456893 -251047.41 251047.415
Nov-17 2578042.16 1604338.603226 973703.56 973703.559
Dec-17 1154440.37 1847764.4930113 -693324.12 693324.12
Jan-18 3220377.33 1674433.463 1545943.87 1545943.87
Feb-18 642518.55 2060919.430 -1418400.88 1418400.88
Mar-18 1700512.11 1706319.209 -5807.10 5807.09804
Apr-18 3401922.27 1704867.435 1697054.83 1697054.83
May-18 1545399.20 2129131.144 -583731.94 583731.943
Jun-18 1665701.90 1983198.158 -317496.26 317496.26
Jul-18 610787.47 1903824.093 -1293036.63 1293036.63
Aug-18 1029417.27 1580564.936 -551147.67 551147.671
Sep-18 1032959.01 1442778.019 -409819.00 409819.004
Oct-18 3101751.32 1340323.268 1761428.05 1761428.05
Nov-18 2660020.67 1780680.281 879340.39 879340.393
Dec-18 913632.90 2000515.379 -1086882.48 1086882.48
Jan-19 1728794.760 -1728794.76 1728794.76
Feb-19 1796724.914 -1796724.91 1796724.91
Mar-19 1779742.376 -1779742.38 1779742.38
Apr-19 1783988.010 -1783988.01 1783988.01
May-19 1782926.602 -1782926.60 1782926.6
Jun-19 1783191.954 -1783191.95 1783191.95
Jul-19 1783125.616 -1783125.62 1783125.62
Aug-19 1783142.200 -1783142.20 1783142.2
Sep-19 1783138.054 -1783138.05 1783138.05
Oct-19 1783139.091 -1783139.09 1783139.09
Nov-19 1783138.832 -1783138.83 1783138.83
Dec-19 1783138.896 -1783138.90 1783138.9

me 169,435.66
mae 762,150.832
 PROMEDIO
N=3 Mes Unidades Cerdo
Jan-16 976656.891
Feb-16 712687.185
Metodo Suavizacion Simple Mar-16 1740714.046
Apr-16 2296002.130
May-16 932230.907
Jun-16 1181535.175
Jul-16 1181535.175
Aug-16 2253206.936
Sep-16 2170348.509
Oct-16 1576787.195
Nov-16 2210420.320
Dec-16 1481920.532
Jan-17 499755.831
Feb-17 954910.060
Mar-17 2073213.837
Apr-17 2335930.498
May-17 842682.109
5 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jun-17 2612786.666
Unidades Cerdo Pronostico
Jul-17 2239764.304
Aug-17 1416053.042
Sep-17 1372768.075
Oct-17 1416053.042
Nov-17 2578042.162
Dec-17 1154440.373
Jan-18 3220377.329
Feb-18 642518.549
Mar-18 1700512.111
Apr-18 3401922.270
May-18 1545399.201
Jun-18 1665701.898
Jul-18 610787.467
Aug-18 1029417.265
Sep-18 1032959.015
Oct-18 3101751.320
Nov-18 2660020.674
Dec-18 913632.901
Jan-19 2225134.965
Feb-19 1932929.513
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

me
mae
 PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Pronostico et et^2

1143352.707 1152649.422 1152649.422 PRO MOVIL SIMPLE

1583134.454 -650903.547 650903.547 4000000.000
1656315.694 -474780.519 474780.519
3500000.000
1469922.737 -288387.562 288387.562
1098433.752 1154773.183 1154773.183 3000000.000
1538759.095 631589.414 631589.414 2500000.000
1868363.540 -291576.345 291576.345
2000000.000
2000114.213 210306.107 210306.107
1985852.008 -503931.476 503931.476 1500000.000
1756376.016 -1256620.184 1256620.184 1000000.000
1397365.561 -442455.501 442455.501
500000.000
978862.141 1094351.696 1094351.696
1175959.909 1159970.588 1159970.588 0.000
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan
1788018.132 -945336.022 945336.022
1750608.815 862177.851 862177.851 Unidades Cerdo Pronostico
1930466.424 309297.880 309297.880
1898411.026 -482357.984 482357.984
2089534.671 -716766.596 716766.596
1676195.140 -260142.098 260142.098
1401624.720 1176417.443 1176417.443
1788954.427 -634514.053 634514.053
1716178.526 1504198.803 1504198.803
2317619.955 -1675101.406 1675101.406
1672445.417 28066.694 28066.694
1854469.330 1547452.940 1547452.940
1914984.310 -369585.109 369585.109
2215944.527 -550242.630 550242.630
2204341.123 -1593553.656 1593553.656
1273962.855 -244545.590 244545.590
1101968.877 -69009.862 69009.862
891054.582 2210696.738 2210696.738
1721375.867 938644.807 938644.807
2264910.336 -1351277.436 1351277.436
2225134.965 0.000 0.000
1932929.513 0.000 0.000
1690565.793
2001338.950
1874944.752
1855616.498
1910633.400
1880398.217
1882216.038
1891082.552
1884565.602
1885954.731

35,742.606
811,566.095
 PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
Mes Unidades Cerdo Pronostico et
Jan-16 976656.891
Feb-16 712687.185
Mar-16 1740714.046
MOVIL SIMPLE Apr-16 2296002.130 1253097.586 946.361
May-16 932230.907 1915555.402 -1703.450
Jun-16 1181535.175 1558587.710 -1595.295
Jul-16 1181535.175 1193260.163 4191.029
Aug-16 2253206.936 1156604.748 -189.272
Sep-16 2170348.509 1717371.055 -919.322
Oct-16 1576787.195 2104610.546 2433.501
Nov-16 2210420.320 1881853.695 -540.778
Dec-16 1481920.532 1952959.889 1811.606
Jan-17 499755.831 1782807.114 404.424
Feb-17 954910.060 1063688.161 -16.002
Mar-17 2073213.837 825549.416 -4662.503
Apr-17 2335930.498 1468546.526 -1121.960
17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19
May-17 842682.109 2092741.790 5076.869
es Cerdo Pronostico Jun-17 2612786.666 1563034.637 -2468.312
Jul-17 2239764.304 1877059.226 3337.831
Aug-17 1416053.042 2249265.029 -4179.301
Sep-17 1372768.075 1865210.909 -645.127
Oct-17 1416053.042 1476781.685 504.882
Nov-17 2578042.162 1398739.055 -673.176
Dec-17 1154440.373 1992719.106 -673.176
Jan-18 3220377.329 1750042.356 -1057.792
Feb-18 642518.549 2329769.030 461.291
Mar-18 1700512.111 1724854.243 -1535.085
Apr-18 3401922.270 1429301.208 2762.574
May-18 1545399.201 2445417.834 4155.667
Jun-18 1665701.898 2303519.720 708.352
Jul-18 610787.467 1791202.856 944.470
Aug-18 1029417.265 1126214.413 708.352
Sep-18 1032959.015 925593.809 -3707.044
Oct-18 3101751.320 989325.160 -802.799
Nov-18 2660020.674 2067000.993 -2526.456
Dec-18 913632.901 2674006.767 283.341
Jan-19 2225134.965 1830999.852 0.000
Feb-19 1932929.513 1744022.710 0.000
Mar-19 1947882.033
Apr-19 1969626.318
May-19 1938368.243
Jun-19 1951822.852
Jul-19 1948221.355
Aug-19 1948676.643
Sep-19 1948809.149
Oct-19 1948697.367
Nov-19 1948740.007
Dec-19 1948729.865

me -8.676
mae 1,749.92
et^2
w1 0.1
w2 0.4
w3 0.5
946.361
1703.450 PROME MOVIL PONDERADO
1595.295
4000000.000
4191.029
189.272
3500000.000
919.322
2433.501 3000000.000
540.778
1811.606 2500000.000
404.424
16.002 2000000.000

4662.503
1500000.000
1121.960
5076.869 1000000.000
2468.312
3337.831 500000.000
4179.301
645.127 0.000
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-2
504.882
673.176 Unidades Cerdo Pronostico
673.176 ANALISIS DE LA INFORMACIÓN: Dado el analisis donde se e
1057.792 aleatorio se eligieron los siguientes metodos para hallar los
_ Promedio movil simple.
461.291 _ Promedio movil ponderado.
1535.085 _ Suavización exponencial simple.
2762.574 Donde se logro evidenciar que el metodo que arroja el men
demanda para el 2019 de carne de res.
4155.667
708.352
944.470
708.352
3707.044
802.799
2526.456
283.341
0.000
0.000
8 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

ÓN: Dado el analisis donde se evidencio por medio de la grafica una serie de tiempo estacionaria con un patron
uientes metodos para hallar los correspondientes pronosticos.

o.
mple.
que el metodo que arroja el menor error es el de Promedio movil ponderado. por lo cual es el mejor pronostico de la
arne de res.
 Pollo

Proporción Unidades
Mes
por demanda Vendidas

Jan-16 0.0522 4052093.980 Carne Cerdo

Feb-16 0.0381 2956898.660 2016 77643.51
Mar-16 0.0930 7222123.729 2017 82087.37
Apr-16 0.1227 9525982.454 2018 85556.52
May-16 0.0498 3867773.094 10% Alas
Jun-16 0.0631 4902122.346 50% Pechuga
Jul-16 0.0631 4902122.346 15% Hueso
Aug-16 0.1204 9348427.624 25% Otros
Sep-16 0.1160 9004652.718 Unidades Producidas
Oct-16 0.0843 6542000.530 2016 77643510.00
Nov-16 0.1181 9170908.385 2017 82087372.50
Dec-16 0.0792 6148404.135 2018 85556520.00
Jan-17 0.0256 2104165.030 2019 80455961.87
Feb-17 0.0490 4020540.089
Mar-17 0.1063 8729030.821
Apr-17 0.1198 9835169.411
May-17 0.0432 3548017.080
Jun-17 0.1340 11000840.785
Jul-17 0.1149 9430272.601
Aug-17 0.0726 5962130.114
Sep-17 0.0704 5779883.687
Oct-17 0.0726 5962130.114
Nov-17 0.1322 10854553.010
Dec-17 0.0592 4860639.757
Jan-18 0.1496 12800198.716
Feb-18 0.0298 2553851.386
Mar-18 0.0790 6759112.588
Apr-18 0.1580 13521794.690
May-18 0.0718 6142577.358
Jun-18 0.0774 6620750.649
Jul-18 0.0284 2427728.228
Aug-18 0.0478 4091677.531
Sep-18 0.0480 4105755.104
Oct-18 0.1441 12328689.843
Nov-18 0.1236 10572920.418
Dec-18 0.0424 3631463.486
Jan-19 0.0241 6524643.40
Feb-19 0.1408 6765741.73
Mar-19 0.0566 6705467.15
Apr-19 0.1548 6720535.79
May-19 0.0504 6716768.63
Jun-19 0.1527 6717710.42
Jul-19 0.0805 6717474.98
Aug-19 0.0791 6717533.84
Sep-19 0.1371 6717519.12
Oct-19 0.0791 6717522.80
Nov-19 0.0704 6717521.88
Dec-19 0.1149 6717522.11
 Un
Mes Milanesa Costillas Chorrizo Otros
8000000.00
Jan-16 405209.40 2026046.99 607814.10 1013023.49
Feb-16 295689.87 1478449.33 443534.80 739224.66 7000000.00

Mar-16 722212.37 3611061.86 1083318.56 1805530.93

6000000.00
Apr-16 952598.25 4762991.23 1428897.37 2381495.61
May-16 386777.31 1933886.55 580165.96 966943.27
5000000.00
Jun-16 490212.23 2451061.17 735318.35 1225530.59
Jul-16 490212.23 2451061.17 735318.35 1225530.59
4000000.00
Aug-16 934842.76 4674213.81 1402264.14 2337106.91
Sep-16 900465.27 4502326.36 1350697.91 2251163.18 3000000.00
Oct-16 654200.05 3271000.27 981300.08 1635500.13
Nov-16 917090.84 4585454.19 1375636.26 2292727.10 2000000.00
Dec-16 614840.41 3074202.07 922260.62 1537101.03
Jan-17 210416.50 1052082.51 315624.75 526041.26 1000000.00
Feb-17 402054.01 2010270.04 603081.01 1005135.02
Mar-17 872903.08 4364515.41 1309354.62 2182257.71 0.00
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16
Apr-17 983516.94 4917584.71 1475275.41 2458792.35
May-17 354801.71 1774008.54 532202.56 887004.27 Mi
Jun-17 1100084.08 5500420.39 1650126.12 2750210.20
Jul-17 943027.26 4715136.30 1414540.89 2357568.15
Aug-17 596213.01 2981065.06 894319.52 1490532.53
Sep-17 577988.37 2889941.84 866982.55 1444970.92
Oct-17 596213.01 2981065.06 894319.52 1490532.53
Nov-17 1085455.30 5427276.50 1628182.95 2713638.25
Dec-17 486063.98 2430319.88 729095.96 1215159.94
Jan-18 1280019.87 6400099.36 1920029.81 3200049.68
Feb-18 255385.14 1276925.69 383077.71 638462.85
Mar-18 675911.26 3379556.29 1013866.89 1689778.15
Apr-18 1352179.47 6760897.35 2028269.20 3380448.67
May-18 614257.74 3071288.68 921386.60 1535644.34
Jun-18 662075.06 3310375.32 993112.60 1655187.66
Jul-18 242772.82 1213864.11 364159.23 606932.06
Aug-18 409167.75 2045838.77 613751.63 1022919.38
Sep-18 410575.51 2052877.55 615863.27 1026438.78
Oct-18 1232868.98 6164344.92 1849303.48 3082172.46
Nov-18 1057292.04 5286460.21 1585938.06 2643230.10
Dec-18 363146.35 1815731.74 544719.52 907865.87
Jan-19 652464.34 3262321.70 978696.51 1631160.85
Feb-19 676574.17 3382870.87 1014861.26 1691435.43
Mar-19 670546.71 3352733.57 1005820.07 1676366.79
Apr-19 672053.58 3360267.90 1008080.37 1680133.95
May-19 671676.86 3358384.32 1007515.30 1679192.16
Jun-19 671771.04 3358855.21 1007656.56 1679427.61
Jul-19 671747.50 3358737.49 1007621.25 1679368.74
Aug-19 671753.38 3358766.92 1007630.08 1679383.46
Sep-19 671751.91 3358759.56 1007627.87 1679379.78
Oct-19 671752.28 3358761.40 1007628.42 1679380.70
Nov-19 671752.19 3358760.94 1007628.28 1679380.47
Dec-19 671752.21 3358761.06 1007628.32 1679380.53
 Unidades Producidas 2016-2019
0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Milanesa Costillas Chorrizo Otros

 Metodo de Suaviacion Simple
Mes Unidades Pollo Pronostico et et^2
Jan-16 4052093.980 2757.967436333 a
Feb-16 2956898.660 1015091.970509 1941806.69 1941806.69
Mar-16 7222123.729 1500543.642857 5721580.09 5721580.09
Apr-16 9525982.454 2930938.664345 6595043.79 6595043.79
May-16 3867773.094 4579699.611829 -711926.52 711926.518 Suav
Jun-16 4902122.346 4401717.982268 500404.36 500404.363 14000000.000
Jul-16 4902122.346 4526819.073126 375303.27 375303.273
Aug-16 9348427.624 4620644.89127 4727782.73 4727782.73 12000000.000
Sep-16 9004652.718 5802590.5744544 3202062.14 3202062.14
Oct-16 6542000.530 6603106.110256 -61105.58 61105.5798 10000000.000

Nov-16 9170908.385 6587829.715301 2583078.67 2583078.67

8000000.000
Dec-16 6148404.135 7233599.382764 -1085195.25 1085195.25
Jan-17 2104165.03 6962300.570832 -4858135.54 4858135.54 6000000.000
Feb-17 4020540.09 5747766.685564 -1727226.60 1727226.6
Mar-17 8729030.82 5315960.036399 3413070.79 3413070.79 4000000.000
Apr-17 9835169.41 6169227.732655 3665941.68 3665941.68
May-17 3548017.08 7085713.152319 -3537696.07 3537696.07 2000000.000
Jun-17 11000840.78 6201289.134337 4799551.65 4799551.65
0.000
Jul-17 9430272.60 7401177.04692 2029095.55 2029095.55 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-1
Aug-17 5962130.11 7908450.935499 -1946320.82 1946320.82
Unid
Sep-17 5779883.69 7421870.7301564 -1641987.04 1641987.04
Oct-17 5962130.11 7011373.969448 -1049243.86 1049243.86
Nov-17 10854553.01 6749063.005618 4105490.00 4105490
Dec-17 4860639.76 7775435.5066969 -2914795.75 2914795.75
Jan-18 12800198.72 7046736.569 5753462.15 5753462.15
Feb-18 2904244.32 8485102.106 -5580857.79 5580857.79
Mar-18 1062528.41 7089887.659 -6027359.25 6027359.25
Apr-18 4816795.45 5583047.847 -766252.39 766252.392
May-18 7083522.73 5391484.749 1692037.98 1692037.98
Jun-18 5029301.14 5814494.243 -785193.11 785193.107
Jul-18 2427728.23 5618195.967 -3190467.74 3190467.74
Aug-18 4091677.53 4820579.032 -728901.50 728901.501
Sep-18 4105755.10 4638353.657 -532598.55 532598.552
Oct-18 12328689.84 4505204.019 7823485.82 7823485.82
Nov-18 10572920.42 6461075.475 4111844.94 4111844.94
Dec-18 3631463.49 7489036.711 -3857573.22 3857573.22
Jan-19 6524643.405
Feb-19 6765741.731
Mar-19 6705467.149
Apr-19 6720535.795
May-19 6716768.633
Jun-19 6717710.424
Jul-19 6717474.976
Aug-19 6717533.838
Sep-19 6717519.123
Oct-19 6717522.802
Nov-19 6717521.882
Dec-19 6717522.112

me 629,663.02
mae 2,972,682.254
 PROM
N=3 Mes
0.25 Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Suavizacion Simple May-16
14000000.000 Jun-16
Jul-16
12000000.000 Aug-16
Sep-16
10000000.000 Oct-16
Nov-16
8000000.000
Dec-16
6000000.000 Jan-17
Feb-17
4000000.000 Mar-17
Apr-17
2000000.000 May-17
Jun-17
0.000
Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jul-17
Aug-17
Unidades Pollo Pronostico
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
 PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Unidades Pollo Pronostico et et^2
4052093.980 PROMEDIO MO
2956898.660 14000000.000
7222123.729
9525982.454 4743705.456 4782276.998 4782276.998 12000000.000
3867773.094 6568334.948 -2700561.854 2700561.854
4902122.346 6871959.759 -1969837.413 1969837.413 10000000.000

4902122.346 6098625.965 -1196503.619 1196503.619

8000000.000
9348427.624 4557339.262 4791088.362 4791088.362
9004652.718 6384224.105 2620428.613 2620428.613 6000000.000
6542000.530 7751734.229 -1209733.699 1209733.699
9170908.385 8298360.291 872548.094 872548.094 4000000.000
6148404.135 8239187.211 -2090783.076 2090783.076
2000000.000
2104165.030 7287104.350 -5182939.320 5182939.320
4020540.089 5807825.850 -1787285.761 1787285.761 0.000
4091036.418 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 A
8729030.821 4637994.404 4637994.404
9835169.411 4951245.313 4883924.098 4883924.098 Unidades Pollo
3548017.080 7528246.774 -3980229.693 3980229.693
11000840.785 7370739.104 3630101.680 3630101.680
9430272.601 8128009.092 1302263.509 1302263.509
5962130.114 7993043.489 -2030913.375 2030913.375
5779883.687 8797747.833 -3017864.146 3017864.146
5962130.114 7057428.801 -1095298.687 1095298.687
10854553.010 5901381.305 4953171.705 4953171.705
4860639.757 7532188.937 -2671549.180 2671549.180
12800198.716 7225774.294 5574424.423 5574424.423
2904244.318 9505130.494 -6600886.176 6600886.176
1062528.409 6855027.597 -5792499.188 5792499.188
4816795.455 5588990.481 -772195.027 772195.027
7083522.727 2927856.061 4155666.667 4155666.667
5029301.136 4320948.864 708352.273 708352.273
2427728.228 5643206.439 -3215478.211 3215478.211
4091677.531 4846850.697 -755173.166 755173.166
4105755.104 3849568.965 256186.139 256186.139
12328689.843 3541720.288 8786969.555 8786969.555
10572920.418 6842040.826 3730879.592 3730879.592
3631463.486 9002455.122 -5370991.636 5370991.636
8844357.916
7102191.952
3631463.486
6526004.451
5753219.963
5303562.634
5860929.016
 5639237.204
5601242.951
5700469.724
5646983.293
5649565.323

me 128,653.12
mae 3,246,272.707
 PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
Mes Unidades Res Pronostico
PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE Jan-16 4052093.980
Feb-16 2956898.660
Mar-16 7222123.729
Apr-16 9525982.454 5199030.726
May-16 3867773.094 7947530.585
Jun-16 4902122.346 6466491.901
Jul-16 4902122.346 4950768.656
Aug-16 9348427.624 4798687.420
Sep-16 9004652.718 7125274.985
Oct-16 6542000.530 8731909.643
Nov-16 9170908.385 7807704.115
Dec-16 6148404.135 8102719.677
Jan-17 2104165.030 7396765.475
Feb-17 4020540.089 4428535.007
ug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Mar-17 8729030.821 3466776.470
Unidades Pollo Pronostico Apr-17 9835169.411 6183147.949
May-17 3548017.080 8811251.043
Jun-17 11000840.785 6580979.387
Jul-17 9430272.601 7903144.166
Aug-17 5962130.114 9470274.323
Sep-17 5779883.687 7853258.176
Oct-17 5962130.114 6217821.149
Nov-17 10854553.010 5889231.543
Dec-17 4860639.757 8390116.919
Jan-18 12800198.716 7368354.094
Feb-18 2904244.318 9429810.562
Mar-18 1062528.409 7058265.621
Apr-18 4816795.455 2972981.803
May-18 7083522.727 3123833.523
Jun-18 5029301.136 5574732.386
Jul-18 2427728.228 5829739.205
Aug-18 4091677.531 3933936.841
Sep-18 4105755.104 3519860.170
Oct-18 12328689.843 3932321.387
Nov-18 10572920.418 8215814.716
Dec-18 3631463.486 10628511.657
Jan-19 7277768.895
Feb-19 2509877.436
Mar-19 363146.349
Apr-19 181573.174
May-19 487032.870
Jun-19 352460.340
Jul-19 389200.635
Aug-19 384287.741
Sep-19 383070.158
Oct-19 384170.239
Nov-19 383741.957
Dec-19 383846.090

me 31,666.98
mae 3,282,170.497
OVIL PONDERADO
et et^2
w1 0.1
w2 0.4
w3 0.5
4326951.728 4326951.728
-4079757.491 4079757.491 PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
-1564369.556 1564369.556
14000000.000
-48646.310 48646.310
4549740.204 4549740.204 12000000.000
1879377.733 1879377.733
-2189909.113 2189909.113 10000000.000
1363204.270 1363204.270
8000000.000
-1954315.541 1954315.541
-5292600.445 5292600.445 6000000.000
-407994.919 407994.919
5262254.352 5262254.352 4000000.000
3652021.462 3652021.462
2000000.000
-5263233.963 5263233.963
4419861.398 4419861.398 0.000
1527128.436 1527128.436 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20
-3508144.208 3508144.208 Unidades Res Pronostico
-2073374.489 2073374.489
-255691.035 255691.035
4965321.467 4965321.467
-3529477.163 3529477.163
5431844.622 5431844.622
-6525566.244 6525566.244
-5995737.212 5995737.212
1843813.651 1843813.651
3959689.205 3959689.205
-545431.250 545431.250
-3402010.976 3402010.976
157740.689 157740.689
585894.934 585894.934
8396368.456 8396368.456
2357105.702 2357105.702
-6997048.170 6997048.170
VIL PONDERADO
ANALISIS DE LA INFORMACIÓN: Dado el analisis donde se evidencio por medio de la grafica una se
aleatorio se eligieron los siguientes metodos para hallar los correspondientes pronosticos.
_ Promedio movil simple.
_ Promedio movil ponderado.
_ Suavización exponencial simple.
Donde se logro evidenciar que el metodo que arroja el menor error es el de Suavización exponenci
metodos por lo cual es el mejor pronostico de la demanda de pollo para el 2019.

18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Pronostico
o por medio de la grafica una serie de tiempo estacionaria con un patron
ondientes pronosticos.

es el de Suavización exponencial simple con un error menor al de los demas

para el 2019.
 Metodo de Suavizacion Triple
Mes Periodo Unidades Pollo at tt st
-3 1
-2 1
-1 1
0 1
Jan-16 1 4052093.98 4052093.98 0 1
Feb-16 2 2956898.66 3887814.68 -41069.8245 0.91619441
Mar-16 3 7222123.73 4353051.69 85506.8832 1.23068304
Apr-16 4 9525982.45 5201672.15 276285.279 1.29096578
May-16 5 3867773.09 5236429.78 215903.366 0.90851976
Jun-16 6 4902122.35 5369801.53 195270.461 0.96951699
Jul-16 7 4902122.35 5532890.15 187225 0.90562521
Aug-16 8 9348427.62 6001517.28 257575.534 1.34513106
Sep-16 9 9004652.72 6366498.23 284426.887 1.33416103
Oct-16 10 6542000.53 6733395.02 305044.365 0.93058921
Nov-16 11 9170908.39 7401561.72 395824.948 1.0638537
Dec-16 12 6148404.14 7646147.65 358015.194 0.87009765
Jan-17 13 2104165.03 7038180.8 116519.682 0.9789727
Feb-17 14 4020540.09 6533525.56 -38774.0479 1.08258441
Mar-17 15 8729030.82 6927555.55 69426.9613 1.04589869
Apr-17 16 9835169.41 7334162.85 153722.046 1.16085763
May-17 17 3548017.08 6976360.59 25840.9701 0.74356545
Jun-17 18 11000840.78 7637440.41 184650.681 1.14046637
Jul-17 19 9430272.60 7955410.77 217980.602 1.11856673
Aug-17 20 5962130.11 7802455.46 125246.624 0.94728144
Sep-17 21 5779883.69 7485393.36 14669.4418 1.0248117
Oct-17 22 5962130.11 7577798.24 34103.3009 0.75869377
Nov-17 23 10854553.01 7897762.92 105568.646 1.22233728
Dec-17 24 4860639.76 7454644.49 -31603.1209 0.95527831
Jan-18 25 12800198.72 8336469.4 196753.886 1.15313904
Feb-18 26 2904244.32 7678329.25 -16969.6233 0.79851129
Mar-18 27 1062528.41 6722226.29 -251752.958 0.54847265
Apr-18 28 4816795.45 6090998.86 -346621.576 1.07130116
May-18 29 7083522.73 5994991.74 -283967.96 1.03448159
Jun-18 30 5029301.14 5508580.29 -334578.835 1.0690883
Jul-18 31 2427728.23 4853948.93 -414591.965 0.69408669
Aug-18 32 4091677.53 4892473 -301312.957 0.64921954
Sep-18 33 4105755.10 4477360.11 -329762.939 1.01729699
Oct-18 34 12328689.84 5313119.65 -38382.3194 1.4845614
Nov-18 35 10572920.42 5966975.82 134677.302 1.3150745
Dec-18 36 3631463.49 5971205.57 102065.415 0.66401323
Jan-19 37 5162280.34 -125682.247 0.4219927
Feb-19 38 4281108.38 -314554.676 0.66124305
Mar-19 39 3371570.65 -463300.439 0.96496491
Apr-19 40 2472029.68 -572360.572 0.85479843
May-19 41 1614718.74 -643598.164 0.4316086
Jun-19 42 825452.489 -680015.185 0.27429526
Jul-19 43 123621.708 -685469.084 0.42980798
Aug-19 44 -477570.269 -664399.808 0.62722719
Sep-19 45 -970674.565 -621575.93 0.55561898
Oct-19 46 -1353412.92 -561866.536 0.28054559
Nov-19 47 -1627987.54 -490043.556 0.17829192
Dec-19 48 -1800326.43 -410617.39 0.27937519
Pronostico Error L 4
a 0.15
b 0.25
t 0.35

Suavizacion Triple Pollo

4052093.98 1095195.32
14000000
3846744.86 3375378.87
4438558.57 5087423.88
12000000
5477957.43 1610184.34
5452333.15 550210.802 10000000
5098687.84 196565.495
7039648.72 2308778.9 8000000
8080274.65 924378.068
6042496.9 499503.628 6000000
6823886.57 2347021.82
7061509.91 913105.78 4000000
10766648 8662482.99
9545522.57 5524982.48 2000000
6043945.7 2685085.12
7443765.74 2391403.67 0
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
6515191.03 2967173.95
6854964.19 4145876.59 Unidades Pollo Linear (Unidades Pollo) Pronostico
8468073.86 962198.742
8548539.35 2586409.24 ANALISIS DE LA INFORMACIÓN: Dado el analisis donde se evidencio por medio de la grafica una se
estacionalidad y tendencia ya que como nos miestra la linea de tencia en color amarillo la correspo
9202933.43 3423049.75 _ Suavización exponencial Triple.
5576787.55 385342.563 Donde se logro evidenciar que el metodo que arroja el menor error es el de Suavizacion Exponenci
8681117.74 2173435.27 demanda para el 2019 de carne de res ademas se hicieron mas metodo de descarte ya que el marg
8952260.4 4091620.64
7031709.29 5768489.42
8744947.04 5840702.72
5812625.86 4750097.45
7909100.76 3092305.31
5487478.99 1596043.73
6585604.48 1556303.34
4131498.56 1703770.33
2434865.87 1656811.66
4918515.07 812759.97
4290612.9 8038076.94
5639159.97 4933760.45
4235076.21 603612.719
3942886.22
6178320.33
9016143.66
 7986803.83
4032732.3
2562876.04
4015908.21
5860493.38
5191422.49
2621275.99
1665869.43
2610340.34
Error 2835986.91
o

40 50 60

lo) Pronostico

o por medio de la grafica una serie de tiempo estacionadad con un patron de

ia en color amarillo la correspondientes pronosticos.

es el de Suavizacion Exponencial Triple es el mejor pronostico de la

odo de descarte ya que el margen de error es un poco alto
 res cerdo pollo
Mes Res Cerdo Pollo
Jan-16 0.0577 0.0522 0.0347
Feb-16 0.1205 0.0381 0.0463 0.2000
Mar-16 0.0374 0.0930 0.0602
Apr-16 0.0917 0.1227 0.0694 0.1800
May-16 0.0475 0.0498 0.0810
0.1600
Jun-16 0.0255 0.0631 0.0880
Jul-16 0.1426 0.0631 0.0926 0.1400
Aug-16 0.0679 0.1204 0.0995
Sep-16 0.0594 0.1160 0.0972 0.1200
Oct-16 0.1409 0.0843 0.1088
0.1000
Nov-16 0.0781 0.1181 0.1157
Dec-16 0.1307 0.0792 0.1065 0.0800
Jan-17 0.1257 0.0256 0.0713
0.0600
Feb-17 0.1115 0.0490 0.0772
Mar-17 0.0248 0.1063 0.0846 0.0400
Apr-17 0.0637 0.1198 0.0861
May-17 0.1735 0.0432 0.0817 0.0200
Jun-17 0.0354 0.1340 0.0861
0.0000
Jul-17 0.1611 0.1149 0.0891 Jan-16 Mar-16
Aug-17 0.0354 0.0726 0.0757
Sep-17 0.0637 0.0704 0.0802
Oct-17 0.0973 0.0726 0.0854
Nov-17 0.0513 0.1322 0.0891
Dec-17 0.0566 0.0592 0.0935
Jan-18 0.0447 0.1496 0.0729
Feb-18 0.0592 0.0298 0.0776
Mar-18 0.0216 0.0790 0.0752
Apr-18 0.0981 0.1580 0.0799
May-18 0.1443 0.0718 0.0823
Jun-18 0.1025 0.0774 0.0834
Jul-18 0.1342 0.0284 0.0858
Aug-18 0.1414 0.0478 0.0846
Sep-18 0.0505 0.0480 0.0893
Oct-18 0.0924 0.1441 0.0905
Nov-18 0.0433 0.1236 0.0905
Dec-18 0.0678 0.0424 0.0881
Jan-19 0.0305 0.0241 0.0705
Feb-19 0.0962 0.1408 0.0723
Mar-19 0.0560 0.0566 0.0796
Apr-19 0.1145 0.1548 0.0814
May-19 0.1194 0.0504 0.0832
Jun-19 0.1108 0.1527 0.0814
Jul-19 0.0195 0.0805 0.0850
Aug-19 0.0999 0.0791 0.0850
Sep-19 0.1121 0.1371 0.0868
Oct-19 0.1206 0.0791 0.0895
Nov-19 0.0341 0.0704 0.0904
Dec-19 0.0865 0.1149 0.0949

Res
Mes Periodo Proporción por demanda Ft Tf
Jan-16 1 4052093.97972805
Feb-16 2 2956898.6599 4052093.9797 1
Mar-16 3 7222123.7288 3778295.1498 -95828.9404849
Apr-16 4 9525982.4543 4639252.2945 239046.1893505
May-16 5 3867773.0936 5860934.8345 582968.9120561
Jun-16 6 4902122.3457 5362644.3992 204528.1405091
Jul-16 7 4902122.3457 5247513.8859 92647.61164574
Aug-16 8 9348427.6240 5161166.0008 29999.18780584
Sep-16 9 9004652.7177 6207981.4066 385884.8641025
Oct-16 10 6542000.5304 6907149.2344 495533.9013829
Nov-16 11 9170908.3852 6815862.0584 290146.524304
Dec-16 12 6148404.1350 7404623.6401 394661.7943891
Jan-17 13 2104165.0298 7090568.7638 146610.9596613
Feb-17 14 4020540.0889 5843967.8303 -341013.20295
Mar-17 15 8729030.8214 5388110.8950 -381208.509291
Apr-17 16 9835169.4113 6223340.8766 44544.96252706
May-17 17 3548017.0804 7126298.0103 344989.2224323
Jun-17 18 11000840.7847 6231727.7778 -88856.5867823
Jul-17 19 9430272.6012 7424006.0295 359540.6066933
Aug-17 20 5962130.1141 7925572.6724 409249.7193769
Sep-17 21 5779883.6873 7434712.0329 94211.09374244
Oct-17 22 5962130.1141 7021004.9465 -83560.2693022
Nov-17 23 10854553.0099 6756286.2384 -146965.722877
Dec-17 24 4860639.7568 7780852.9313 263070.6226399
Jan-18 25 12800198.7163 7050799.6377 -84522.7480513
Feb-18 26 2904244.3182 8488149.4073 448132.633144
Mar-18 27 1062528.4091 7092173.1350 -197305.483755
Apr-18 28 4816795.4545 5584761.9535 -655842.47796
May-18 29 7083522.7273 5392770.3288 -493494.679336
Jun-18 30 5029301.1364 5815458.4284 -172830.706701
Jul-18 31 2427728.2284 5618919.1054 -181128.72241
Aug-18 32 4091677.5309 4821121.3862 -396962.871303
Sep-18 33 4105755.1043 4638760.4223 -321852.203679
Oct-18 34 12328689.8433 4505509.0928 -255841.897721
Nov-18 35 10572920.4180 6461304.2805 518231.082151
Dec-18 36 3631463.4864 7489208.3148 696616.6154331
Jan-19 37 6524772.1077 115248.1275382
Feb-19 38 4893579.0808 -496006.276526
Mar-19 39 3670184.3106 -750592.249311
Apr-19 40 2752638.2329 -809026.089229
May-19 41 2064478.6747 -766722.803382
Jun-19 42 1548359.0060 -679011.706235
Jul-19 43 1161269.2545 -576839.022081
Aug-19 44 870951.9409 -476556.424123
Sep-19 45 653213.9557 -385969.970508
Oct-19 46 489910.4668 -308036.701952
Nov-19 47 367432.8501 -243091.022109
Dec-19 48 275574.6375 -190159.538752
 DEMANDA
0.2000

0.1800

0.1600

0.1400

0.1200

0.1000

0.0800

0.0600

0.0400

0.0200

0.0000
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 M

Res Cerdo Pollo

 ###

Pronostico e e^2

4052094.9797 1095196.3198 1199454978963.7600 a 0.25

3682466.2093 -3539657.5195 ### b 0.35
4878298.4839 -4647683.9704 ### MSE 10735751368712.1000
6443903.7465 2576130.6529 6636449141017.6600 ME 254431.6798
5567172.5398 665050.1941 442291760611.4430
5340161.4975 438039.1518 191878298513.6260
5191165.1886 -4157262.4354 ###
Chart Title
6593866.2707 -2410786.4469 5811891292753.2300 14000000
7402683.1358 860682.6053 740774547107.9130 12000000
7106008.5827 -2064899.8025 4263811194182.6800
10000000
7799285.4345 1650881.2994 2725409064828.5600
7237179.7235 5133014.6937 ### 8000000
5502954.6274 1482414.5385 2197552863818.3000 6000000
5006902.3857 -3722128.4358 ###
4000000
6267885.8391 -3567283.5722 ###
7471287.2327 3923270.1523 ### 2000000
6142871.1910 -4857969.5937 ### 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
7783546.6362 -1646725.9650 2711706403920.3100
8334822.3918 2372692.2777 5629668644616.3300 Proporción por demanda Pr
7528923.1266 1749039.4393 3059138960167.9300
6937444.6772 975314.5630 951238496894.4330
6609320.5155 -4245232.4944 ###
8043923.5539 3183283.7971 ###
6966276.8896 -5833921.8266 ###
8936282.0404 6032037.7223 ###
6894867.6513 5832339.2422 ###
4928919.4756 112124.0210 12571796093.2323
4899275.6495 -2184247.0778 4770935296950.2300
5642627.7217 613326.5853 376169500293.7940
5437790.3830 3010062.1546 9060474174414.5800
4424158.5149 332480.9839 110543604668.9910
4316908.2187 211153.1144 44585637708.1438
4249667.1951 -8079022.6482 ###
6979535.3626 -3593385.0554 ###
8185824.9303 4554361.4439 ###
6640020.2353 6640020.2353 ###
4397572.8043 4397572.8043 ###
2919592.0613 2919592.0613 8524017804309.4500
1943612.1437 1943612.1437 3777628165202.9800
1297755.8713 1297755.8713 1684170301565.4500
869347.2998 869347.2998 755764727664.0870
584430.2324 584430.2324 341558696593.7990
394395.5168 394395.5168 155547823648.0660
267243.9852 267243.9852 71419347604.9955
181873.7648 181873.7648 33078066322.8321
124341.8280 124341.8280 15460890179.1789
85415.0988 85415.0988 7295739102.4197
Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18
 Chart Title

15 20 25 30 35 40

orción por demanda Pronostico

 Cantidad de Fecha de Fecha de - Se empacan 30 bande
Pedido Prioridad - Al inicio del día hay u
bandejas Disponibilidad Entrega
- La jornada laboral es
Pedido 1 814 1 Lunes 11:00 a.m. Viernes 8:00
p.m.
Jueves 9:00
Pedido 2 945 4
Martes 8:00 a.m. a.m.

Pedido 3 642 5 Miércoles 10:00 Sábado 12:00

a.m. m.
Miércoles 7:00 Viernes 10:00
Pedido 4 588 2
a.m. p.m.
Miércoles 6:00
Pedido 5 888 1 Lunes 9:00 a.m. p.m.
Miércoles 10:00 Jueves 8:00
Pedido 6 722 1
a.m. a.m.
Viernes 6:00
Pedido 7 645 3 Jueves 7:00 a.m.
p.m.
Sábado 2:00
Pedido 8 961 1 Martes 7:00 a.m.
p.m.
Miércoles 2:00 Viernes 8:00
Pedido 9 753 1 p.m. a.m.

Pedido 10 979 5 Martes 7:00 a.m. Sábado 3:00

p.m.
- Se empacan 30 bandejas de milanesa de cerdo por hora
- Al inicio del día hay un alistamiento de la máquina de 0,5 hora
- La jornada laboral es de Lunes a Viernes de 7:00 a.m. a 10:00 p.m.

El gerente de la compañía quiere realizar la secuenciación de los clientes empleando

las reglas de despacho:
- SPT
- WSPT
- EDD
- CR

para luego escoger la que presente mejores resultados, teniendo en cuenta:

- El tiempo de flujo promedio
- El número de trabajos tardíos
- E tiempo de terminación del último trabajo
- La tardanza ponderada total
Cant total de Horas laborales x dia 15
Tiempo de inicio 7:00
Cantidad de Bandejas 30
Promedio de alistamiento x dia 450

Cantidad de
Pedido Prioridad Fecha de Disponibilidad
bandejas
Pedido 1 814 1 Lunes 11:00 a.m.
Pedido 2 945 4 Martes 8:00 a.m.
Pedido 3 642 5 Miércoles 10:00 a.m.

Pedido 4 588 2 Miércoles 7:00 a.m.

Pedido 5 888 1 Lunes 9:00 a.m.
Pedido 6 722 1 Miércoles 10:00 a.m.
Pedido 7 645 3 Jueves 7:00 a.m.
Pedido 8 961 1 Martes 7:00 a.m.
Pedido 9 753 1 Miércoles 2:00 p.m.
Pedido 10 979 5 Martes 7:00 a.m.

- Se empacan 30 bandejas de milanesa de cerdo por hora

- Al inicio del día hay un alistamiento de la máquina de 0,5 hora
- La jornada laboral es de Lunes a Viernes de 7:00 a.m. a 10:00 p.m.

El gerente de la compañía quiere realizar la secuenciación de los clientes empleando las reglas de
despacho:
- SPT
- WSPT
- EDD
- CR

para luego escoger la que presente mejores resultados, teniendo en cuenta:

- El tiempo de flujo promedio
- El número de trabajos tardíos
- E tiempo de terminación del último trabajo
- La tardanza ponderada total
 Horas de Dias de
Fecha de Entrega Dias Elaboracion
Fabricacion Fabricacion
Viernes 8:00 p.m. 4 27.13 1.81
Jueves 9:00 a.m. 3 31.50 2.10

Sábado 12:00 m. 4 21.40 1.43

Viernes 10:00 p.m. 3 19.60 1.31

Miércoles 6:00 p.m. 3 29.60 1.97
Jueves 8:00 a.m. 3 24.07 1.60
Viernes 6:00 p.m. 2 21.50 1.43
Sábado 2:00 p.m. 5 32.03 2.14
Viernes 8:00 a.m. 3 25.10 1.67
Sábado 3:00 p.m. 5 32.63 2.18

mpleando las reglas de

 DESPACHO SPT

J pj dj wj Tiempo Retraso Tardanza

Finalizacion
4 1.31 3.00 2 1.31 -1.69 0.00
3 1.43 3.10 5 2.74 -0.36 0.00
7 1.43 1.70 3 4.17 2.47 2.47
6 1.60 0.90 1 5.77 4.87 4.87
9 1.67 1.60 1 7.45 5.85 5.85
1 1.81 4.60 1 9.26 4.66 4.66
5 1.97 2.60 1 11.23 8.63 8.63
2 2.10 2.10 4 13.33 11.23 11.23
8 2.14 4.50 1 15.47 10.97 10.97
10 2.18 4.50 5 17.64 13.14 13.14
Makespan
TFP
Retraso
Max
Tardanza
Ponderada
Tardanza
Tardanza
media
Tardanza

Ponderada
-1.82
7.41
4.87
5.85
4.66
8.63
44.92
10.97
65.71
17.64
1.76

13.14

151.19

8 Pedidos

6.18
 DESPACHO EDD

Tiempos de
j pj dj wj Retraso Tardanza
finalizacion

6 1.60 0.90 1 1.60 0.70 0.70

9 1.67 1.60 1 3.27 1.67 1.67
7 1.43 1.70 3 4.71 3.01 3.01
2 2.10 2.10 4 6.81 4.71 4.71
5 1.97 2.60 1 8.78 6.18 6.18
4 1.31 3.00 2 10.09 7.09 7.09
3 1.43 3.10 5 11.51 8.41 8.41
8 2.14 4.50 1 13.65 9.15 9.15
10 2.18 4.50 5 15.82 11.32 11.32
1 1.81 4.60 1 17.63 13.03 13.03
Makespan
TFP
Retraso Max
Tardanza
Ponderada
Tardanza

Tardanza media
Tardanza
Ponderada

0.70
1.67
9.02
18.83
6.18
14.17
42.07
9.15
56.62
13.03
17.63
1.76
13.03

171.44
10 Pedidos

6.53
T
DESPACHO WSPT
J pj dj wj Tiempo Retraso Tardanza
Finalizacion
3 1.43 3.10 5 1.43 -1.67 0.00
10 2.18 4.50 5 3.60 -0.90 0.00
7 1.43 1.70 3 5.04 3.34 3.34
2 2.10 2.10 4 7.14 5.04 5.04
4 1.31 3.00 2 8.44 5.44 5.44
6 1.60 0.90 1 10.05 9.15 9.15
9 1.67 1.60 1 11.72 10.12 10.12
1 1.81 4.60 1 13.53 8.93 8.93
5 1.97 2.60 1 15.50 12.90 12.90
8 2.14 4.50 1 17.64 13.14 13.14
Tardanza Razon

-8.37 3.50
-4.49 2.30
10.01 2.09
20.14 1.90
10.88 1.53
9.15 0.62
10.12 0.60
8.93 0.55
12.90 0.51
13.14 0.47
Makespan 17.64
TFP 1.76
Retraso Max 13.14
Tardanza
Ponderada 82.41
Tardanza 8 Pedidos
Tardanza
media 6.10
 REGLA DE DESPACHO CR
Dias para Fecha de
T inici=0 Prioridad Critica R
0 elaboracion entrega
6 1.60 0.90 1 0.90
9 1.67 1.60 1 1.60
7 1.43 1.70 3 1.70
2 2.10 2.10 4 2.10
5 1.97 2.60 1 2.60
4 1.31 3.00 2 3.00
3 1.43 3.10 5 3.10
8 2.14 4.50 1 4.50
10 2.18 4.50 5 4.50
1 1.81 4.60 1 4.60
T Inicial REGLA DE DESPACHO CR
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=1,60 elaboracion finalizacion Prioridad Critica R
0
1 1.81 4.60 1
1.6 3.72
3.03 2 2.10 2.10 4 1.34
3 1.43 3.10 5
4.71 1.98
6.01 4 1.31 3.00 2 1.78
7.44 5 1.97 2.60 1 1.79
9.41 7 1.43 1.70 3 0.58
11.22 8 2.14 4.50 1 3.75
13.32 9 1.67 1.60 1 0.64
15.46 10 2.18 4.50 5 3.76
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=3,03 Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
1 1.81 4.60 1 2.92
2 2.10 2.10 4 0.66
3 1.43 3.10 5 0.98
4 1.31 3.00 2 0.68
5 1.97 2.60 1 1.06
8 2.14 4.50 1 3.08
9 1.67 1.60 1 -0.21
10 2.18 4.50 5 3.11
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=4,71 Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
1 1.81 4.60 1 2.00
2 2.10 2.10 4 -0.14
3 1.43 3.10 5 -0.20
4 1.31 3.00 2 -0.60
5 1.97 2.60 1 0.21
8 2.14 4.50 1 2.29
 10 2.18 4.50 5 2.34
T inici=6,01 Dias para Tiempo de Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
1 1.81 4.60 1 1.28
2 2.10 2.10 4 -0.76
3 1.43 3.10 5 -1.11
5 1.97 2.60 1 -0.45
8 2.14 4.50 1 1.69
10 2.18 4.50 5 1.74
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=7,44 Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
1 1.81 4.60 1 0.49
2 2.10 2.10 4 -1.44
5 1.97 2.60 1 -1.17
8 2.14 4.50 1 1.02
10 2.18 4.50 5 1.08
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=9,41 elaboracion finalizacion Prioridad Critica R

1 1.81 4.60 1 -0.60

2 2.10 2.10 4 -3.24
8 2.14 4.50 1 -1.74
10 2.18 4.50 5 -2.61
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=11,22 Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
2 2.10 2.10 4 -3.24
8 2.14 4.50 1 -0.75
10 2.18 4.50 5 -0.66
T inici=13,32 Dias para Tiempo de Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
8 2.14 4.50 1 -1.74
10 2.18 4.50 5 -1.62
Dias para Tiempo de
T inici=15,46 Prioridad Critica R
elaboracion finalizacion
10 2.18 4.50 5 -2.61
 DESPACHO CR
Tiempo de Tiempo de
T inici=0 Prioridad Tardanza Razon
procesamiento finalizacion
6 1.60 1.60 1 0.00 0.00
7 1.43 3.03 3 1.60 4.79
9 1.67 4.71 1 3.04 3.04
4 1.31 6.01 2 4.70 9.41
3 1.43 7.44 5 6.01 30.07
5 1.97 9.41 1 7.44 7.44
1 1.81 11.22 1 9.41 9.41
2 2.10 13.32 4 11.22 44.88
8 2.14 15.46 1 13.32 13.32
10 2.18 17.64 5 15.46 77.30
Makespan 17.64
TFP
8.98
Retrazo max
15.46
Tardanza 7.22
Tardanza
ponde 199.65
 SPT EDD WSPT CR
Makespan 17.64 Makespan 17.63 Makespan 17.64 Makespan
TFP 1.76 TFP 1.76 TFP 1.76 TFP
Retr max 13.14 Retr max 13.03 Retr max 13.14 Retr max
tarda pon 147.81 tarda pon 171.44 tarda pon 82.41 tarda pon
Tardanza 8 pedidos Tardanza 10 pedidos Tardanza 8 pedidos Tardanza
Tardanza media 6.18 Tardanza media 6.53 Tardanza med 6.10 Tardanza

Se evidencio que implemnetando los difrentes mentodos solicidados de

Despacho nos pudimos dar cuenta que algunos metodos como SPT y
WSPT nos dan resultados muy similares y caulquiera de los dos podria
cubrir la necesidad que nos pide el enunciado pero en este caso
tomaremos WSPT ya que este es menor margen en todos los intems.
CR
17.64
8.98
15.46
199.65
-
7.22
 Tiempo de proceso de los pedidos en cada máquina (en minutos)
Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 2 Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5 Etapa 6
Pedido 1 24 22 23 8 18 22
Pedido 2 23 8 24 15 10 7
Pedido 3 13 25 5 30 11 24
Pedido 4 21 30 25 25 25 19
Pedido 5 6 15 21 26 20 17
Pedido 6 30 29 8 17 6 7
Pedido 7 7 7 27 28 6 11
Pedido 8 7 7 22 5 11 23

Dado que exiten más de 3 maquinas procedemos aplicar el metodo

heuristico CDS de forma Iterativa.

En esta iteración se aplica el algoritmo de Jhonson

Pedido Etapa 1 Etapa 7

Pedido 1 24 9
Pedido 2 23 8 ITERACIÓN 1 - ALGORITMO 1
Pedido 3 13 15
Pedido 4 21 11 J5,J7,J8,J3,J6,J1,J2,J4
Pedido 5 6 21
Pedido 6 30 10 Cmax= 255 Minutos
Pedido 7 7 5
Pedido 8 7 5

Pedido Etapa 2 Etapa 6

Pedido 1 22 22
Pedido 2 8 7 ITERACIÓN 2 - ALGORITMO 2
Pedido 3 25 24
Pedido 4 30 19 j7,j8,j2,j5,j4,j6,j3,j1
Pedido 5 15 17
Pedido 6 29 7 Cmax= 272 Minutos
Pedido 7 7 11
Pedido 8 7 23

En esta Iteración 3 vamos a tomar las maquinas 3-4-5 como si solo existieran ,
analizamos la secuencia optima donde la maquina del medio sea < menor o
igual al maximo de los tiempos de procesamiento de las otras maquinas.
En esta Iteración 3 vamos a tomar las maquinas 3-4-5 como si solo existieran ,
analizamos la secuencia optima donde la maquina del medio sea < menor o
igual al maximo de los tiempos de procesamiento de las otras maquinas.

Pedido Etapa 3 Etapa 4 Etapa 5

Pedido 1 23 8 18
Pedido 2 24 15 10
Pedido 3 5 30 11
Pedido 4 25 25 25
Pedido 5 21 26 20
Pedido 6 8 17 6
Pedido 7 27 28 6
Pedido 8 22 5 11

Se realiza el cambio de la maquina 4 con la 5 para establecer la secuencia

optima del procesamiento

Pedido Etapa 3 Etapa 5 Etapa 4

Pedido 1 23 18 8
Pedido 2 24 10 15
Pedido 3 5 11 30
Pedido 4 25 25 25
Pedido 5 21 20 26
Pedido 6 8 6 17
Pedido 7 27 6 28
Pedido 8 22 11 5

Max (18,10,11,25,20,6,6,11)< Max ( min(23,24,5,25,21,8,27,22)]; Min(8,15,60,25,26,17,28,5)

25<

Pedido Etapa 3 Etapa 5 Etapa 4

Pedido 1 23 18 8
Pedido 2 24 10 15
Pedido 3 5 11 30
Pedido 4 25 25 25
Pedido 5 21 20 26
Pedido 6 8 6 17
Pedido 7 27 6 28
Pedido 8 22 11 5

Pedido 1 Pedido 2 Pedido 3 Pedido 4 Pedido 5 Pedido 6

 Pj3' 23 24 5 25 21 8
pj5' 18 10 11 25 20 6
pj4' 8 15 30 25 26 17
Pj1' 41 34 16 50 41 14
Pj2' 26 25 41 50 46 23

<= j6,j3
>= j8,j2,j1,j7,j5,j4

Se realiza 2 particiones
*Conjunto I
*Conjunto II

Se ordena por SPT según el tiempo de la maquina

Pedido 6 Pedido 3
Pj1' 14 16

Se ordena por LPT según el tiempo de la maquina

Pedido 8 Pedido 2 Pedido 1 Pedido 7 Pedido 5 Pedido 4

Pj1' 16 25 26 34 46 50

La secuencia definitiva sera con el ALGORITMO 3 j6,j3,j4,j5,j7,j1,j2,j8

os)
Etapa 7
9
8
15
11
21
10
5
5
28,5)

Pedido 7 Pedido 8
27 22
6 11
28 5
33 33
34 16

ITERACIÓN 3 - ALGORITMO 3

j6,j3,j4,j5,j7,j1,j2,j8

Cmax= 171 Minutos

 ALGORITMO 1
j5,j7,j8,j3,j6,j1,j2,j4 M1 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
M2 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
Cmax= 252 Minutos M3
M4
M5
M6
M7
Makespan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
,

ALGORITMO 2 M1 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8
j7,j8,j2,j5,j4,j6,j3,j1 M2 J7 J7 J7 J7
M3
Cmax= 272 Minutos M4
M5
M6
M7
Makespan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

ALGORITMO 3 M3 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J3 J3 J3
j6,j3,j4,j5,j7,j1,j2,j8 M5 J6 J6 J6
M4
Cmax= 171 Minutos Makespan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

J8 J8 J8 J8 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

J3 J3 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J6 J6 J6 J6 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J3
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J8 J8 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55

J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55

J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5

56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77

J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8
J7 J7

56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77

J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J6 J6 J6
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J3 J3 J3 J3
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6 J6 J6
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J8 J8 J8 J3 J3 J3
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121

J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J2 J2 J2 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J2 J2
100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J2 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7
100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J2 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J8 J8 J8 J8
122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J6 J6 J6 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5

J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143

J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J7 J1 J1
122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J4 J4 J4 J4
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J8
144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165

J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5

144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165

J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J4
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J3 J3 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J6 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J5
166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187

J8
J8 J8 J8 J8 J8
166 167 168 169 170 171
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J2
J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J2 J2 J2
188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J1 J3 J3 J1 J1
J6 J6 J6 J3 J3 J3
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
J5 J5 J5 J5 J5 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209
J4 J4
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4

J2 J2 J2 J2 J2 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J1J3 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6 J6
210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4
J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4 J4

232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253

J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3 J3
232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253
J4 J4

254 255

J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
J3 J3 J3 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1 J1
254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272