2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

ENERO 311.79 288.85 287.64 279.22 292.90

FEBRERO 311.79 290.07 286.27 279.22 294.06
MARZO 311.79 293.28 288.41 279.22 305.22
ABRIL 311.79 296.43 291.49 283.22 305.81
MAYO 311.79 296.05 291.95 281.16 308.81
JUNIO 309.05 289.75 287.67 281.16 312.11
JULIO 309.05 289.10 288.35 283.04 320.41
AGOSTO 299.12 290.47 284.13 279.04 325.12
SEPTIEMBRE 310.80 288.07 286.64 281.04 326.07
OCTUBRE 310.34 287.92 286.34 283.08 332.75
NOVIEMBRE 288.85 287.92 289.39 291.15 339.07
DICIEMBRE 288.85 287.92 283.01 293.23 341.89
SUMA 3675.01 3485.83 3451.29 3393.78 3804.22

t (meses) Xt fase I identificacion

Jan-01 311.79
Feb-01 311.79
Mar-01 311.79
Apr-01 311.79
Precio Mensual por millar del Ladrillo REX en Lima M
May-01 311.79 2010.
Jun-01 309.05 800
Jul-01 309.05 700
Aug-01 299.12 600 f(x) = 2.12612E-08 x⁶ − 7.7188E-06 x⁵ + 0.0010299
+ 366.5605
Sep-01 310.8 500 R² = 0.966134841532275
Oct-01 310.34 400
Axis Title 300
Nov-01 288.85
200
Dec-01 288.85 100
Jan-02 288.85 0
Feb-02 290.07 1 6 11 16 21 2 6 3 1 3 6 41 4 6 5 1 5 6 6 1
Mar-02 293.28
Apr-02 296.43 Axis Title
May-02 296.05
Jun-02 289.75
Jul-02 289.1 METODO EXPLORATORIO
Aug-02 290.47
Sep-02 288.07 Para confirmar la existencia de la componente de tendencia
Oct-02 287.92
Nov-02 287.92 GRAFICA DE TOTALES
Dec-02 287.92 Yt: Cantidad anual de precio de ladrillos REX (2001-2010)
Jan-03 287.64 Yt totales 9000
Feb-03 286.27 1 3675.01
8000
Mar-03 288.41 2 3485.83
7000
6000
5000
 9000
8000
7000
Apr-03 291.49 3 3451.29
May-03 291.95 4 3393.78 6000
Jun-03 287.67 5 3804.22 5000
Jul-03 288.35 6 4257.09
4000
Aug-03 284.13 7 5951.73
Sep-03 286.64 8 7843.09 3000
Oct-03 286.34 9 8025.42 2000
Nov-03 289.39 10 7957.69
1000
Dec-03 283.01
Jan-04 279.22 0
1 2
Feb-04 279.22 GRAFICA DE CAJAS ANUALES
Mar-04 279.22
Apr-04 283.22
May-04 281.16
Jun-04 281.16 Boxp
Jul-04 283.04
Aug-04 279.04 700
Sep-04 281.04
Oct-04 283.08
Nov-04 291.15 600
Dec-04 293.23
Jan-05 292.9
500

C1
Feb-05 294.06
Mar-05 305.22
Apr-05 305.81
May-05 308.81 400
Jun-05 312.11
Jul-05 320.41
Aug-05 325.12 300
Sep-05 326.07
Oct-05 332.75 1 2 3 4
Nov-05 339.07
Dec-05 341.89
Jan-06 345.64
Feb-06 347.14 Por observacion decimo
Mar-06 350.95 observar que el compor
Apr-06 352.51 que las componentes se
May-06 356.76
Jun-06 355.89
Jul-06 354.64
Aug-06 355.84 Para verificar si existe la componente de estacionalidad
Sep-06 357.15
Oct-06 359.46 GRAFICA DE CAJAS MENSUALES
Nov-06 360.71
Dec-06 360.4 0

700
Jan-07 358.03
Feb-07 359.5 700
Mar-07 364.9
Apr-07 380.59
May-07 393.92 600
Jun-07 458.74
Jul-07 547.58
500

C1
Aug-07 627.24
Sep-07 626.79
Oct-07 618.73
Nov-07 611.51 400
Dec-07 604.2
Jan-08 603.97
Feb-08 603.09 300
Mar-08 605.17
Apr-08 624.34 1 2
May-08 630.33
Jun-08 648.81
Jul-08 657.64 GRAFICA DE PERIODOS SUPERPUESTOS
Aug-08 681.32
Sep-08 691.89
Oct-08 698.32
Nov-08 695.93 800.00
Dec-08 702.28 700.00
Jan-09 689.33
Feb-09 683.62 600.00
Mar-09 684.05
500.00
Apr-09 682
May-09 679.21 400.00
Jun-09 672.61
300.00
Jul-09 668.91
Aug-09 664.57 200.00
Sep-09 664.13
100.00
Oct-09 654.63
Nov-09 641.48 0.00
Dec-09 640.88 1 2 3
Jan-10 651.79
Feb-10 659.21
Mar-10 661.28
Apr-10 662.43 2001 2002
May-10 666.36 ENERO 311.79 288.85
Jun-10 665.76 FEBRERO 311.79 290.07
Jul-10 668.56 MARZO 311.79 293.28
Aug-10 665.84 ABRIL 311.79 296.43
Sep-10 665.56 MAYO 311.79 296.05
Oct-10 663.84 JUNIO 309.05 289.75
Nov-10 663.22 JULIO 309.05 289.10
Dec-10 663.84 AGOSTO 299.12 290.47
SEPTIEMBRE 310.80 288.07
OCTUBRE 310.34 287.92
NOVIEMBRE 288.85 287.92
DICIEMBRE 288.85 287.92
MEDIA 306.25 290.49
DESVEST 8.86 3.09
LN MEDIA 5.72 5.67
LN DESVEST 2.18 1.13

6.00

Forma de relacion entre las componentes

Grafica de 5.00
dispersion-
nivel
4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
5.60 5.70 5.80 5.90 6.00 6.10

Se puede observar que el comportamiento de la serie, muestra que su nivel que es va

que las componentes se relacionan de manera multiplicativa Xt = Tt*At .

fase II obtencion de componentes

aplicando promedio movil

t (meses) Xt G=12 Tt At zt
1 Jan-01 311.79
2 Feb-01 311.79
3 Mar-01 311.79
4 Apr-01 311.79
5 May-01 311.79
6 Jun-01 309.05
7 Jul-01 309.05 306.250833333 305.295 1.0122996 1.01229958
8 Aug-01 299.12 304.339166667 303.434166667 0.9857821988 0.9857822
9 Sep-01 310.8 302.529166667 301.757916667 1.029964693 1.02996469
10 Oct-01 310.34 300.986666667 300.346666667 1.0332726627 1.03327266
11 Nov-01 288.85 299.706666667 299.050833333 0.9658892998 0.9658893
12 Dec-01 288.85 298.395 297.590833333 0.9706280155 0.97062802
13 Jan-02 288.85 296.786666667 295.955416667 0.9759915978 0.9759916
14 Feb-02 290.07 295.124166667 294.76375 0.9840762305 0.98407623
15 Mar-02 293.28 294.403333333 293.45625 0.9993993994 0.9993994
16 Apr-02 296.43 292.509166667 291.575 1.0166509474 1.01665095
17 May-02 296.05 290.640833333 290.602083333 1.018746998 1.018747
18 Jun-02 289.75 290.563333333 290.524583333 0.9973338458 0.99733385
19 Jul-02 289.1 290.485833333 290.435416667 0.9954020185 0.99540202
20 Aug-02 290.47 290.385 290.226666667 1.0008384251 1.00083843
21 Sep-02 288.07 290.068333333 289.865416667 0.9938060335 0.99380603
22 Oct-02 287.92 289.6625 289.456666667 0.9946912031 0.9946912
23 Nov-02 287.92 289.250833333 289.08 0.99598727 0.99598727
24 Dec-02 287.92 288.909166667 288.8225 0.9968752434 0.99687524
25 Jan-03 287.64 288.735833333 288.704583333 0.9963125513 0.99631255
26 Feb-03 286.27 288.673333333 288.409166667 0.9925828756 0.99258288
27 Mar-03 288.41 288.145 288.085416667 1.0011266913 1.00112669
28 Apr-03 291.49 288.025833333 287.96 1.012258647 1.01225865
29 May-03 291.95 287.894166667 287.955416667 1.0138722285 1.01387223
30 Jun-03 287.67 288.016666667 287.812083333 0.999506333 0.99950633
31 Jul-03 288.35 287.6075 287.256666667 1.00380612 1.00380612
32 Aug-03 284.13 286.905833333 286.612083333 0.9913399208 0.99133992
33 Sep-03 286.64 286.318333333 285.935416667 1.0024641345 1.00246413
34 Oct-03 286.34 285.5525 285.207916667 1.0039693265 1.00396933
35 Nov-03 289.39 284.863333333 284.41375 1.017496517 1.01749652
36 Dec-03 283.01 283.964166667 283.692916667 0.997592761 0.99759276
37 Jan-04 279.22 283.421666667 283.200416667 0.9859448771 0.98594488
38 Feb-04 279.22 282.979166667 282.767083333 0.9874558124 0.98745581
39 Mar-04 279.22 282.555 282.321666667 0.9890137137 0.98901371
40 Apr-04 283.22 282.088333333 281.9525 1.0044954381 1.00449544
41 May-04 281.16 281.816666667 281.89 0.9974103374 0.99741034
42 Jun-04 281.16 281.963333333 282.389166667 0.9956472598 0.99564726
43 Jul-04 283.04 282.815 283.385 0.9987825749 0.99878257
44 Aug-04 279.04 283.955 284.573333333 0.9805556857 0.98055569
45 Sep-04 281.04 285.191666667 286.275 0.9817133875 0.98171339
46 Oct-04 283.08 287.358333333 288.299583333 0.9818952796 0.98189528
47 Nov-04 291.15 289.240833333 290.392916667 1.0026070999 1.0026071
48 Dec-04 293.23 291.545 292.834583333 1.0013503073 1.00135031
49 Jan-05 292.9 294.124166667 295.68125 0.9905937559 0.99059376
50 Feb-05 294.06 297.238333333 299.158333333 0.9829577426 0.98295774
51 Mar-05 305.22 301.078333333 302.954583333 1.0074777435 1.00747774
52 Apr-05 305.81 304.830833333 306.900416667 0.9964470017 0.996447
53 May-05 308.81 308.97 310.966666667 0.9930646372 0.99306464
54 Jun-05 312.11 312.963333333 314.990833333 0.9908542312 0.99085423
55 Jul-05 320.41 317.018333333 319.215833333 1.0037409381 1.00374094
56 Aug-05 325.12 321.413333333 323.625 1.0046195442 1.00461954
57 Sep-05 326.07 325.836666667 327.742083333 0.9948981732 0.99489817
58 Oct-05 332.75 329.6475 331.593333333 1.0034882084 1.00348821
59 Nov-05 339.07 333.539166667 335.537083333 1.0105291392 1.01052914
60 Dec-05 341.89 337.535 339.359166667 1.0074576837 1.00745768
61 Jan-06 345.64 341.183333333 342.609583333 1.0088451019 1.0088451
62 Feb-06 347.14 344.035833333 345.315833333 1.0052826036 1.0052826
63 Mar-06 350.95 346.595833333 347.890833333 1.0087934673 1.00879347
64 Apr-06 352.51 349.185833333 350.29875 1.006312469 1.00631247
65 May-06 356.76 351.411666667 352.313333333 1.0126213409 1.01262134
66 Jun-06 355.89 353.215 353.98625 1.0053780338 1.00537803
67 Jul-06 354.64 354.7575 355.27375 0.9982161643 0.99821616
68 Aug-06 355.84 355.79 356.305 0.9986949383 0.99869494
69 Sep-06 357.15 356.82 357.40125 0.9992970086 0.99929701
70 Oct-06 359.46 357.9825 359.1525 1.0008561823 1.00085618
71 Nov-06 360.71 360.3225 361.870833333 0.9967921335 0.99679213
72 Dec-06 360.4 363.419166667 367.704583333 0.9801346416 0.98013464
73 Jan-07 358.03 371.99 380.029166667 0.9421118993 0.9421119
74 Feb-07 359.5 388.068333333 399.376666667 0.900152738 0.90015274
75 Mar-07 364.9 410.685 421.92 0.8648558969 0.8648559
76 Apr-07 380.59 433.155 443.957916667 0.8572659383 0.85726594
77 May-07 393.92 454.760833333 465.210833333 0.8467558616 0.84675586
78 Jun-07 458.74 475.660833333 485.819166667 0.9442608103 0.94426081
79 Jul-07 547.58 495.9775 506.225 1.0816929231 1.08169292
80 Aug-07 627.24 516.4725 526.622083333 1.191062851 1.19106285
81 Sep-07 626.79 536.771666667 546.782916667 1.1463233047 1.1463233
82 Oct-07 618.73 556.794166667 566.950416667 1.0913300031 1.09133
83 Nov-07 611.51 577.106666667 586.957083333 1.041830855 1.04183086
84 Dec-07 604.2 596.8075 604.727083333 0.9991283947 0.99912839
85 Jan-08 603.97 612.646666667 617.2325 0.9785129591 0.97851296
86 Feb-08 603.09 621.818333333 624.071666667 0.9663793955 0.9663794
87 Mar-08 605.17 626.325 629.0375 0.9620571111 0.96205711
88 Apr-08 624.34 631.75 635.06625 0.9831100299 0.98311003
89 May-08 630.33 638.3825 641.9 0.9819753856 0.98197539
90 Jun-08 648.81 645.4175 649.504166667 0.998931236 0.99893124
91 Jul-08 657.64 653.590833333 657.1475 1.0007494512 1.00074945
92 Aug-08 681.32 660.704166667 664.059583333 1.025992271 1.02599227
 93 Sep-08 691.89 667.415 670.701666667 1.0315912937 1.03159129
94 Oct-08 698.32 673.988333333 676.390833333 1.0324208514 1.03242085
95 Nov-08 695.93 678.793333333 680.83 1.0221788112 1.02217881
96 Dec-08 702.28 682.866666667 683.858333333 1.0269378404 1.02693784
97 Jan-09 689.33 684.85 685.319583333 1.0058518927 1.00585189
98 Feb-09 683.62 685.789166667 685.09125 0.9978524759 0.99785248
99 Mar-09 684.05 684.393333333 683.236666667 1.0011904123 1.00119041
100 Apr-09 682 682.08 680.259583333 1.0025584596 1.00255846
101 May-09 679.21 678.439166667 676.170416667 1.0044952918 1.00449529
102 Jun-09 672.61 673.901666667 671.343333333 1.0018867643 1.00188676
103 Jul-09 668.91 668.785 667.220833333 1.0025316456 1.00253165
104 Aug-09 664.57 665.656666667 664.639583333 0.9998953067 0.99989531
105 Sep-09 664.13 663.6225 662.67375 1.0021975369 1.00219754
106 Oct-09 654.63 661.725 660.909583333 0.9904985743 0.99049857
107 Nov-09 641.48 660.094166667 659.55875 0.9725896291 0.97258963
108 Dec-09 640.88 659.023333333 658.737916667 0.9728907108 0.97289071
109 Jan-10 651.79 658.4525 658.437916667 0.9899035027 0.9899035
110 Feb-10 659.21 658.423333333 658.47625 1.0011143151 1.00111432
111 Mar-10 661.28 658.529166667 658.58875 1.0040863893 1.00408639
112 Apr-10 662.43 658.648333333 659.032083333 1.00515592 1.00515592
113 May-10 666.36 659.415833333 660.321666667 1.0091445331 1.00914453
114 Jun-10 665.76 661.2275 662.184166667 1.0054000586 1.00540006
115 Jul-10 668.56 663.140833333
116 Aug-10 665.84
117 Sep-10 665.56
118 Oct-10 663.84
119 Nov-10 663.22
120 Dec-10 663.84

METODO FUNCION DE TIEMPO

suponemos que la tendencia tiene una ecuacion polinomica de cuarto grado

t xt Tt At t^2 t^3
1 311.79 290.266656874 1.07415024295 1 1
2 311.79 294.962429009 1.05704987936 4 8
3 311.79 298.982990619 1.04283524409 9 27
4 311.79 302.367991325 1.03116073442 16 64
5 311.79 305.156280065 1.02173876262 25 125
6 309.05 307.385905088 1.00541369947 36 216
7 309.05 309.094113961 0.99985727984 49 343
8 299.12 310.317353562 0.96391644414 64 512
 9 310.8 311.091270084 0.99906371502 81 729
10 310.34 311.450709034 0.99643375661 100 1000
11 288.85 311.429715233 0.92749659352 121 1331
12 288.85 311.061532817 0.92859440826 144 1728
13 288.85 310.378605235 0.93063759914 169 2197
14 290.07 309.412575251 0.93748613729 196 2744
15 293.28 308.194284942 0.95160752269 225 3375
16 296.43 306.753775699 0.96634507375 256 4096
17 296.05 305.12028823 0.970273074 289 4913
18 289.75 303.322262553 0.95525464422 324 5832
19 289.1 301.387338002 0.95923074246 361 6859
20 290.47 299.342353226 0.97036051487 400 8000
21 288.07 297.213346187 0.96923642123 441 9261
22 287.92 295.025554161 0.97591546203 484 10648
23 287.92 292.803413739 0.98332186884 529 12167
24 287.92 290.570560824 0.99087808202 576 13824
25 287.64 288.349830636 0.99753830049 625 15625
26 286.27 286.163257706 1.00037301188 676 17576
27 288.41 284.032075882 1.01541348492 729 19683
28 291.49 281.976718325 1.03373782677 784 21952
29 291.95 280.01681751 1.04261594927 841 24389
30 287.67 278.171205224 1.03414729705 900 27000
31 288.35 276.457912573 1.04301590545 961 29791
32 284.13 274.894169972 1.03359776611 1024 32768
33 286.64 273.496407153 1.04805764355 1089 35937
34 286.34 272.280253162 1.05163704189 1156 39304
35 289.39 271.260536357 1.06683413624 1225 42875
36 283.01 270.451284413 1.04643614695 1296 46656
37 279.22 269.865724317 1.03466270386 1369 50653
38 279.22 269.516282371 1.03600419813 1444 54872
39 279.22 269.414584191 1.03639526731 1521 59319
40 283.22 269.571454706 1.05063052877 1600 64000
41 281.16 269.996918161 1.04134521948 1681 68921
42 281.16 270.700198114 1.03863980137 1764 74088
43 283.04 271.689717437 1.04177663649 1849 79507
44 279.04 272.973098316 1.02222527319 1936 85184
45 281.04 274.557162252 1.02361197827 2025 91125
46 283.08 276.447930059 1.02399030421 2116 97336
47 291.15 278.650621867 1.04485681047 2209 103823
48 293.23 281.169657116 1.04289347224 2304 110592
49 292.9 284.008654566 1.03130660032 2401 117649
50 294.06 287.170432285 1.02399121546 2500 125000
51 305.22 290.657007659 1.05010370284 2601 132651
52 305.81 294.469597388 1.03851128508 2704 140608
53 308.81 298.608617485 1.03416305464 2809 148877
54 312.11 303.073683276 1.02981557695 2916 157464
55 320.41 307.863609402 1.04075308096 3025 166375
56 325.12 312.976409821 1.03880033702 3136 175616
57 326.07 318.4092978 1.02405929178 3249 185193
58 332.75 324.158685924 1.02650342085 3364 195112
59 339.07 330.220186091 1.0267997363 3481 205379
60 341.89 336.588609511 1.01575035619 3600 216000
61 345.64 343.257966712 1.00693948435 3721 226981
62 347.14 350.221467532 0.99120137451 3844 238328
63 350.95 357.471521127 0.98175652956 3969 250047
64 352.51 364.999735964 0.96578152055 4096 262144
65 356.76 372.796919826 0.95698215577 4225 274625
66 355.89 380.853079809 0.93445483014 4356 287496
67 354.64 389.157422323 0.91130216117 4489 300763
68 355.84 397.698353093 0.89474848772 4624 314432
69 357.15 406.463477158 0.87867673252 4761 328509
70 359.46 415.439598871 0.86525213527 4900 343000
71 360.71 424.612721897 0.84950351555 5041 357911
72 360.4 433.968049219 0.83047588561 5184 373248
73 358.03 443.489983131 0.80730120999 5329 389017
74 359.5 453.162125242 0.79331431286 5476 405224
75 364.9 462.967276476 0.78817665641 5625 421875
76 380.59 472.88743707 0.80482154983 5776 438976
77 393.92 482.903806575 0.81573181788 5929 456533
78 458.74 492.996783857 0.9305131697 6084 474552
79 547.58 503.145967096 1.08831240994 6241 493039
80 627.24 513.330153784 1.22190367228 6400 512000
81 626.79 523.52734073 1.19724406203 6561 531441
82 618.73 533.714724056 1.1592897331 6724 551368
83 611.51 543.868699198 1.12437064479 6889 571787
84 604.2 553.964860905 1.09068289821 7056 592704
85 603.97 563.978003242 1.07091056128 7225 614125
86 603.09 573.882119588 1.05089526127 7396 636056
87 605.17 583.650402634 1.03687069737 7569 658503
88 624.34 593.255244386 1.05239693354 7744 681472
89 630.33 602.668236167 1.04589882488 7921 704969
90 648.81 611.860168609 1.06038933941 8100 729000
91 657.64 620.801031662 1.05934102306 8281 753571
92 681.32 629.460014588 1.08238805358 8464 778688
93 691.89 637.805505966 1.08479778479 8649 804357
94 698.32 645.805093684 1.08131695899 8836 830584
95 695.93 653.425564949 1.06504862578 9025 857375
96 702.28 660.63290628 1.06304120386 9216 884736
97 689.33 667.39230351 1.03287076638 9409 912673
98 683.62 673.668141786 1.01477264189 9604 941192
 99 684.05 679.42400557 1.0068087003 9801 970299
100 682 684.622678638 0.99616916191 10000 1000000
101 679.21 689.226144079 0.98546755058 10201 1030301
102 672.61 693.195584296 0.97030335339 10404 1061208
103 668.91 696.491381008 0.96039953722 10609 1092727
104 664.57 699.073115247 0.95064448268 10816 1124864
105 664.13 700.899567358 0.94753946347 11025 1157625
106 654.63 701.928717002 0.93261606791 11236 1191016
107 641.48 702.117743152 0.91363593394 11449 1225043
108 640.88 701.423024098 0.91368543373 11664 1259712
109 651.79 699.800137442 0.93139450127 11881 1295029
110 659.21 697.2038601 0.94550537902 12100 1331000
111 661.28 693.588168302 0.95341880127 12321 1367631
112 662.43 688.906237594 0.96156771974 12544 1404928
113 666.36 683.110442834 0.97547915859 12769 1442897
114 665.76 676.152358195 0.98463015315 12996 1481544
115 668.56 667.982757164 1.00086415829 13225 1520875
116 665.84 658.551612542 1.01106729878 13456 1560896
117 665.56 647.808096444 1.02740302823 13689 1601613
118 663.84 635.7005803 1.04426521002 13924 1643032
119 663.22 622.176634853 1.06596738426 14161 1685159
120 663.84 607.183030159 1.09331118794 14400 1728000
SUMA 7260 51845.15 583220 52707600

matriz
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡 =𝑛 𝑏𝑜+𝑏1 ∑▒𝑡 〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗

∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 =𝑏𝑜 ∑▒𝑡+𝑏1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 2=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 3=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡4+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 5 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗 matriz inversa

∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 4=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡5+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 7 〗

bo
b1
b2
 b3
b4

1.-

tcal = █("|b4|" @"( " 2.-

√𝑏(𝑞+1)(𝑞+1)" )" @" 3.-

" )/√(𝑆𝐶𝐸/(𝑛−𝑞−1))

fase III validacion

t xt Tt et et2
1 311.79 290.266656874 21.5233431263 463.25429933
Residu
2 311.79 294.962429009 16.8275709909 283.16714545
3 311.79 298.982990619 12.8070093814 164.01948929 150
4 311.79 302.367991325 9.42200867508 88.774247473 100
5 311.79 305.156280065 6.6337199354 44.006240181
6 309.05 307.385905088 1.66409491157 2.7692118747 50

0
1 6 1 1 16 2 1 2 6
-50
 150

100

50
7 309.05 309.094113961 -0.0441139613 0.0019460416
0
8 299.12 310.317353562 -11.197353562 125.38072679 1 6 1 1 16 2 1 2 6
9 310.8 311.091270084 -0.2912700839 0.0848382617 -50
10 310.34 311.450709034 -1.1107090338 1.2336745577
-100
11 288.85 311.429715233 -22.579715233 509.84354001
12 288.85 311.061532817 -22.211532817 493.35219008 -150
13 288.85 310.378605235 -21.528605235 463.48084337
14 290.07 309.412575251 -19.342575251 374.13521733
15 293.28 308.194284942 -14.914284942 222.43589532
16 296.43 306.753775699 -10.323775699 106.58034469
17 296.05 305.12028823 -9.0702882297 82.27012857
18 289.75 303.322262553 -13.572262553 184.2063108 1.0
19 289.1 301.387338002 -12.287338002 150.97867518 0.8
20 290.47 299.342353226 -8.8723532264 78.718651775 0.6
21 288.07 297.213346187 -9.1433461874 83.600779502
0.4

Autocorrelation
22 287.92 295.025554161 -7.1055541614 50.48889994
23 287.92 292.803413739 -4.8834137387 23.847729744 0.2
24 287.92 290.570560824 -2.650560824 7.0254726815 0.0
25 287.64 288.349830636 -0.7098306355 0.5038595311
-0.2
26 286.27 286.163257706 0.10674229388 0.0113939173
27 288.41 284.032075882 4.37792411757 19.166219579 -0.4
28 291.49 281.976718325 9.51328167471 90.502528222 -0.6
29 291.95 280.01681751 11.9331824904 142.40084435 -0.8
30 287.67 278.171205224 9.49879477562 90.227102189
-1.0
31 288.35 276.457912573 11.8920874273 141.42174338
32 284.13 274.894169972 9.23583002818 85.300556309 2 4
33 286.64 273.496407153 13.143592847 172.75403293
34 286.34 272.280253162 14.0597468385 197.67648116
35 289.39 271.260536357 18.129463643 328.67745198
36 283.01 270.451284413 12.5587155871 157.7213372
37 279.22 269.865724317 9.35427568304 87.502473554
38 279.22 269.516282371 9.70371762912 94.162135826
39 279.22 269.414584191 9.80541580946 96.146179196
40 283.22 269.571454706 13.6485452941 186.28278865
41 281.16 269.996918161 11.1630818391 124.61439615
42 281.16 270.700198114 10.4598018863 109.4074555
43 283.04 271.689717437 11.3502825633 128.82891427
44 279.04 272.973098316 6.06690168406 36.807296044
45 281.04 274.557162252 6.482837748 42.027185267
46 283.08 276.447930059 6.63206994066 43.984351698
47 291.15 278.650621867 12.4993781334 156.23445372
48 293.23 281.169657116 12.0603428836 145.45187047
49 292.9 284.008654566 8.89134543449 79.056023635
50 294.06 287.170432285 6.88956771511 47.466143301
51 305.22 290.657007659 14.5629923405 212.08074591
52 305.81 294.469597388 11.3404026117 128.6047314
53 308.81 298.608617485 10.2013825154 104.06820523
54 312.11 303.073683276 9.03631672448 81.655019945
55 320.41 307.863609402 12.5463905975 157.41191703
56 325.12 312.976409821 12.1435901791 147.46678244
57 326.07 318.4092978 7.66070219968 58.686358192
58 332.75 324.158685924 8.59131407564 73.810677546
59 339.07 330.220186091 8.84981390927 78.319206229
60 341.89 336.588609511 5.30139048875 28.104741114
61 345.64 343.257966712 2.38203328817 5.674082586
62 347.14 350.221467532 -3.0814675325 9.4954421536
63 350.95 357.471521127 -6.5215211273 42.530237813
64 352.51 364.999735964 -12.489735964 155.99350446
65 356.76 372.796919826 -16.036919826 257.18279751
66 355.89 380.853079809 -24.963079809 623.15535354
67 354.64 389.157422323 -34.517422323 1191.4524438
68 355.84 397.698353093 -41.858353093 1752.1217237
69 357.15 406.463477158 -49.313477158 2431.8190294
70 359.46 415.439598871 -55.979598871 3133.7154897
71 360.71 424.612721897 -63.902721897 4083.5578659
72 360.4 433.968049219 -73.568049219 5412.2578659
73 358.03 443.489983131 -85.459983131 7303.4087167
74 359.5 453.162125242 -93.662125242 8772.5937049
75 364.9 462.967276476 -98.067276476 9617.1907155
76 380.59 472.88743707 -92.29743707 8518.8168897
77 393.92 482.903806575 -88.983806575 7918.1178326
78 458.74 492.996783857 -34.256783857 1173.5272402
79 547.58 503.145967096 44.4340329044 1974.3832801
80 627.24 513.330153784 113.909846216 12975.453065
81 626.79 523.52734073 103.26265927 10663.176799
82 618.73 533.714724056 85.0152759438 7227.5971438
83 611.51 543.868699198 67.6413008022 4575.3455742
84 604.2 553.964860905 50.2351390948 2523.5691999
85 603.97 563.978003242 39.9919967576 1599.3598047
86 603.09 573.882119588 29.2078804122 853.10027817
87 605.17 583.650402634 21.5195973664 463.09307081
88 624.34 593.255244386 31.0847556136 966.26203156
89 630.33 602.668236167 27.6617638334 765.17317837
90 648.81 611.860168609 36.9498313911 1365.2900398
91 657.64 620.801031662 36.8389683381 1357.1095882
92 681.32 629.460014588 51.8599854115 2689.4580869
93 691.89 637.805505966 54.0844940344 2925.132495
94 698.32 645.805093684 52.5149063159 2757.8153854
95 695.93 653.425564949 42.5044350507 1806.626999
96 702.28 660.63290628 41.6470937199 1734.4804153
 97 689.33 667.39230351 21.93769649 481.26252729
98 683.62 673.668141786 9.95185821373 99.039481906
99 684.05 679.42400557 4.62599442961 21.399824463
100 682 684.622678638 -2.6226786379 6.8784432378
101 679.21 689.226144079 -10.016144079 100.3231422
102 672.61 693.195584296 -20.585584296 423.7662808
103 668.91 696.491381008 -27.581381008 760.7325783
104 664.57 699.073115247 -34.503115247 1190.4649617
105 664.13 700.899567358 -36.769567358 1352.0010837
106 654.63 701.928717002 -47.298717002 2237.16863
107 641.48 702.117743152 -60.637743152 3676.9358946
108 640.88 701.423024098 -60.543024098 3665.457767
109 651.79 699.800137442 -48.010137442 2304.9732972
110 659.21 697.2038601 -37.9938601 1443.5334053
111 661.28 693.588168302 -32.308168302 1043.8177391
112 662.43 688.906237594 -26.476237594 700.99115714
113 666.36 683.110442834 -16.750442834 280.57733514
114 665.76 676.152358195 -10.392358195 108.00110886
115 668.56 667.982757164 0.57724283576 0.3332092914
116 665.84 658.551612542 7.28838745772 53.120591734
117 665.56 647.808096444 17.7519035555 315.13007984
118 663.84 635.7005803 28.1394196999 791.82694105
119 663.22 622.176634853 41.0433651475 1684.5578226
120 663.84 607.183030159 56.6569698409 3210.0122316
155455.54301

fase IV pronostico

t xt
121 590.67

Se estima que para el mes de enero del 2011 el precio del millar del Ladrillo REX en Lima Metropolitana sera de S

correlograma

t xt xt-1 xt-xt-1
1 311.79 CORRELOG
2 311.79 311.79 0
3 311.79 311.79 0 1.0
4 311.79 311.79 0 0.8
5 311.79 311.79 0 0.6
0.4
rrelation

0.2
0.0
 1.0
0.8
0.6
6 309.05 311.79 -2.74
0.4

Autocorrelation
7 309.05 309.05 0
8 299.12 309.05 -9.93 0.2
9 310.8 299.12 11.68 0.0
10 310.34 310.8 -0.46
-0.2
11 288.85 310.34 -21.49
-0.4
12 288.85 288.85 0
13 288.85 288.85 0 -0.6
14 290.07 288.85 1.22 -0.8
15 293.28 290.07 3.21
-1.0
16 296.43 293.28 3.15
17 296.05 296.43 -0.38 2 4 6 8 1
18 289.75 296.05 -6.3
19 289.1 289.75 -0.65
20 290.47 289.1 1.37
21 288.07 290.47 -2.4
22 287.92 288.07 -0.15
23 287.92 287.92 0
24 287.92 287.92 0
25 287.64 287.92 -0.28
26 286.27 287.64 -1.37
27 288.41 286.27 2.14
28 291.49 288.41 3.08
29 291.95 291.49 0.46
30 287.67 291.95 -4.28
31 288.35 287.67 0.68
32 284.13 288.35 -4.22
33 286.64 284.13 2.51
34 286.34 286.64 -0.3
35 289.39 286.34 3.05
36 283.01 289.39 -6.38
37 279.22 283.01 -3.79
38 279.22 279.22 0
39 279.22 279.22 0
40 283.22 279.22 4
41 281.16 283.22 -2.06
42 281.16 281.16 0
43 283.04 281.16 1.88
44 279.04 283.04 -4
45 281.04 279.04 2
46 283.08 281.04 2.04
47 291.15 283.08 8.07
48 293.23 291.15 2.08
49 292.9 293.23 -0.33
50 294.06 292.9 1.16
51 305.22 294.06 11.16
52 305.81 305.22 0.59
53 308.81 305.81 3
54 312.11 308.81 3.3
55 320.41 312.11 8.3
56 325.12 320.41 4.71
57 326.07 325.12 0.95
58 332.75 326.07 6.68
59 339.07 332.75 6.32
60 341.89 339.07 2.82
61 345.64 341.89 3.75
62 347.14 345.64 1.5
63 350.95 347.14 3.81
64 352.51 350.95 1.56
65 356.76 352.51 4.25
66 355.89 356.76 -0.87
67 354.64 355.89 -1.25
68 355.84 354.64 1.2
69 357.15 355.84 1.31
70 359.46 357.15 2.31
71 360.71 359.46 1.25
72 360.4 360.71 -0.31
73 358.03 360.4 -2.37
74 359.5 358.03 1.47
75 364.9 359.5 5.4
76 380.59 364.9 15.69
77 393.92 380.59 13.33
78 458.74 393.92 64.82
79 547.58 458.74 88.84
80 627.24 547.58 79.66
81 626.79 627.24 -0.45
82 618.73 626.79 -8.06
83 611.51 618.73 -7.22
84 604.2 611.51 -7.31
85 603.97 604.2 -0.23
86 603.09 603.97 -0.88
87 605.17 603.09 2.08
88 624.34 605.17 19.17
89 630.33 624.34 5.99
90 648.81 630.33 18.48
91 657.64 648.81 8.83
92 681.32 657.64 23.68
93 691.89 681.32 10.57
94 698.32 691.89 6.43
95 695.93 698.32 -2.39
 96 702.28 695.93 6.35
97 689.33 702.28 -12.95
98 683.62 689.33 -5.71
99 684.05 683.62 0.43
100 682 684.05 -2.05
101 679.21 682 -2.79
102 672.61 679.21 -6.6
103 668.91 672.61 -3.7
104 664.57 668.91 -4.34
105 664.13 664.57 -0.44
106 654.63 664.13 -9.5
107 641.48 654.63 -13.15
108 640.88 641.48 -0.6
109 651.79 640.88 10.91
110 659.21 651.79 7.42
111 661.28 659.21 2.07
112 662.43 661.28 1.15
113 666.36 662.43 3.93
114 665.76 666.36 -0.6
115 668.56 665.76 2.8
116 665.84 668.56 -2.72
117 665.56 665.84 -0.28
118 663.84 665.56 -1.72
119 663.22 663.84 -0.62
120 663.84 663.22 0.62

FASE II
suponemos que la tendencia tiene una ecuacion polinomica de cuarto grado

t xt Tt At t^2 t^3 t^4

1 311.79 290.347169999 1.07385238162 1 1 1
2 311.79 295.021319968 1.05683887535 4 8 16
3 311.79 299.022769757 1.04269651523 9 27 81
4 311.79 302.391118976 1.03108186859 16 64 256
5 311.79 305.165246875 1.0217087404 25 125 625
6 309.05 307.383312224 1.00542218042 36 216 1296
7 309.05 309.082753193 0.99989403099 49 343 2401
8 299.12 310.300287232 0.96396945897 64 512 4096
9 310.8 311.071910951 0.99912589038 81 729 6561
10 310.34 311.4329 0.99649073685 100 1000 10000
11 288.85 311.417808949 0.92753205404 121 1331 14641
12 288.85 311.060471168 0.92859757756 144 1728 20736
13 288.85 310.393998707 0.93059144572 169 2197 28561
14 290.07 309.450782176 0.93737038879 196 2744 38416
15 293.28 308.262490625 0.95139697148 225 3375 50625
16 296.43 306.860071424 0.96601033371 256 4096 65536
17 296.05 305.273750143 0.96978531518 289 4913 83521
18 289.75 303.533030432 0.95459133257 324 5832 104976
19 289.1 301.666693901 0.95834245492 361 6859 130321
20 290.47 299.7028 0.96919348101 400 8000 160000
21 288.07 297.668685899 0.96775379355 441 9261 194481
22 287.92 295.590966368 0.97404871176 484 10648 234256
23 287.92 293.495533657 0.98100300339 529 12167 279841
24 287.92 291.407557376 0.98803202838 576 13824 331776
25 287.64 289.351484375 0.99408510249 625 15625 390625
26 286.27 287.351038624 0.99623791642 676 17576 456976
27 288.41 285.429221093 1.01044314557 729 19683 531441
28 291.49 283.608309632 1.02779075965 784 21952 614656
29 291.95 281.909858851 1.03561472163 841 24389 707281
30 287.67 280.3547 1.02609301717 900 27000 810000
31 288.35 278.962940849 1.03364984296 961 29791 923521
32 284.13 277.753965568 1.02295569181 1024 32768 1048576
33 286.64 276.746434607 1.03574956768 1089 35937 1185921
34 286.34 275.958284576 1.03762059704 1156 39304 1336336
35 289.39 275.406728125 1.05077316727 1225 42875 1500625
36 283.01 275.108253824 1.02872231591 1296 46656 1679616
37 279.22 275.078626043 1.01505523718 1369 50653 1874161
38 279.22 275.332884832 1.0141178747 1444 54872 2085136
39 279.22 275.885345801 1.01208710158 1521 59319 2313441
40 283.22 276.7496 1.02337997959 1600 64000 2560000
41 281.16 277.938513799 1.0115906434 1681 68921 2825761
42 281.16 279.464228768 1.00606793664 1764 74088 3111696
43 283.04 281.338161557 1.00604908496 1849 79507 3418801
44 279.04 283.571003776 0.98402162522 1936 85184 3748096
45 281.04 286.172721875 0.98206425182 2025 91125 4100625
46 283.08 289.152557024 0.97899877806 2116 97336 4477456
47 291.15 292.519024993 0.99531987708 2209 103823 4879681
48 293.23 296.279916032 0.9897059643 2304 110592 5308416
49 292.9 300.442294751 0.97489602868 2401 117649 5764801
50 294.06 305.0125 0.96409163559 2500 125000 6250000
51 305.22 309.996144749 0.98459288985 2601 132651 6765201
52 305.81 315.398115968 0.96959995801 2704 140608 7311616
53 308.81 321.222574507 0.96135833689 2809 148877 7890481
54 312.11 327.472954976 0.95308633967 2916 157464 8503056
55 320.41 334.151965625 0.95887510163 3025 166375 9150625
56 325.12 341.261588224 0.95270024878 3136 175616 9834496
57 326.07 348.803077943 0.93482546634 3249 185193 10556001
58 332.75 356.776963232 0.93265550832 3364 195112 11316496
59 339.07 365.183045701 0.92849326931 3481 205379 12117361
60 341.89 374.0204 0.91409452533 3600 216000 12960000
 61 345.64 383.287373699 0.90177768358 3721 226981 13845841
62 347.14 392.981587168 0.88334927471 3844 238328 14776336
63 350.95 403.099933457 0.87062777954 3969 250047 15752961
64 352.51 413.638578176 0.85221741539 4096 262144 16777216
65 356.76 424.592959375 0.84024002783 4225 274625 17850625
66 355.89 435.957787424 0.81634050421 4356 287496 18974736
67 354.64 447.727044893 0.79208974317 4489 300763 20151121
68 355.84 459.893986432 0.77374353764 4624 314432 21381376
69 357.15 472.451138651 0.75595118898 4761 328509 22667121
70 359.46 485.3903 0.7405586803 4900 343000 24010000
71 360.71 498.702540649 0.72329689664 5041 357911 25411681
72 360.4 512.378202368 0.70338667479 5184 373248 26873856
73 358.03 526.406898407 0.68013926315 5329 389017 28398241
74 359.5 540.777513376 0.66478355906 5476 405224 29986576
75 364.9 555.478203125 0.65691146466 5625 421875 31640625
76 380.59 570.496394624 0.66712078041 5776 438976 33362176
77 393.92 585.818785843 0.67242637061 5929 456533 35153041
78 458.74 601.431345632 0.76274707551 6084 474552 37015056
79 547.58 617.319313601 0.88702878387 6241 493039 38950081
80 627.24 633.4672 0.99016965677 6400 512000 40960000
81 626.79 649.858785599 0.96450184854 6561 531441 43046721
82 618.73 666.477121568 0.92835894883 6724 551368 45212176
83 611.51 683.304529357 0.89493040618 6889 571787 47458321
84 604.2 700.322600576 0.86274525412 7056 592704 49787136
85 603.97 717.512196875 0.84175572573 7225 614125 52200625
86 603.09 734.853449824 0.82069424883 7396 636056 54700816
87 605.17 752.325760793 0.80439888083 7569 658503 57289761
88 624.34 769.907800832 0.81092826872 7744 681472 59969536
89 630.33 787.577510551 0.80034027325 7921 704969 62742241
90 648.81 805.3121 0.80566279831 8100 729000 65610000
91 657.64 823.088048549 0.79899106925 8281 753571 68574961
92 681.32 840.881104768 0.810245344 8464 778688 71639296
93 691.89 858.666286307 0.80577287246 8649 804357 74805201
94 698.32 876.417879776 0.79678885622 8836 830584 78074896
95 695.93 894.109440625 0.77834990705 9025 857375 81450625
96 702.28 911.713793024 0.77028559332 9216 884736 84934656
97 689.33 929.203029743 0.74185078819 9409 912673 88529281
98 683.62 946.548512032 0.72222394448 9604 941192 92236816
99 684.05 963.720869501 0.70980096172 9801 970299 96059601
100 682 980.69 0.69542872875 10000 1000000 100000000
101 679.21 997.425069499 0.68096343352 10201 1030301 104060401
102 672.61 1013.89451197 0.66339248518 10404 1061208 108243216
103 668.91 1030.06602926 0.64938555491 10609 1092727 112550881
104 664.57 1045.90659098 0.6354009103 10816 1124864 116985856
105 664.13 1061.38243438 0.62572168004 11025 1157625 121550625
106 654.63 1076.45906422 0.60813273979 11236 1191016 126247696
107 641.48 1091.10125269 0.58791977226 11449 1225043 131079601
108 640.88 1105.27303923 0.57983862562 11664 1259712 136048896
109 651.79 1118.93773045 0.58250783959 11881 1295029 141158161
110 659.21 1132.0579 0.58231120511 12100 1331000 146410000
111 661.28 1144.59538845 0.5777412758 12321 1367631 151807041
112 662.43 1156.51130317 0.5727829881 12544 1404928 157351936
113 666.36 1167.76601821 0.57062801076 12769 1442897 163047361
114 665.76 1178.31917418 0.56500820371 12996 1481544 168896016
115 668.56 1188.12967813 0.56269952035 13225 1520875 174900625
116 665.84 1197.15570342 0.55618496249 13456 1560896 181063936
117 665.56 1205.35468964 0.5521694201 13689 1601613 187388721
118 663.84 1212.68334243 0.54741413259 13924 1643032 193877776
119 663.22 1219.0976334 0.54402533631 14161 1685159 200533921
120 663.84 1224.5528 0.54210810673 14400 1728000 207360000
7260 51845.15 583220 52707600 5080895996

MATRIZ
120
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡 =𝑛 𝑏𝑜+𝑏1 ∑▒𝑡 〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 7260
583220
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 =𝑏𝑜 ∑▒𝑡+𝑏1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 452707600
〗

5080895996
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 2
=𝑏 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b ∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗 +5.1019E+11
0 1 2 b ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3
4
〗
MATRIZ INVERSA
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 3=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡4+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 5 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗
0.34834382
-0.05053833
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 4=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡5+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗 〖𝑡 7 〗
+ b3∑▒0.0022359
-4.1742E-05
3.46383E-07
-1.054E-09

b0
b1
b2
b3
b4
b5

tcal = █("|b5|" @"( "

√𝑏(𝑞+1)(𝑞+1)" )" @"
" )/√(𝑆𝐶𝐸/(𝑛−𝑞−1))
 tcal = █("|b5|" @"( "
√𝑏(𝑞+1)(𝑞+1)" )" @"
" )/√(𝑆𝐶𝐸/(𝑛−𝑞−1))

fase III validacion

t xt Tt et et2
1 311.79 290.347169999 21.442830001 459.79495845
2 311.79 295.021319968 16.768680032 281.18863002
3 311.79 299.022769757 12.767230243 163.00216808
4 311.79 302.391118976 9.398881024 88.338964503
5 311.79 305.165246875 6.624753125 43.887353967
6 309.05 307.383312224 1.666687776 2.7778481427
7 309.05 309.082753193 -0.032753193 0.0010727717
8 299.12 310.300287232 -11.180287232 124.99882259
9 310.8 311.071910951 -0.271910951 0.0739355653
10 310.34 311.4329 -1.0929 1.19443041
11 288.85 311.417808949 -22.567808949 509.30600076
12 288.85 311.060471168 -22.210471168 493.3050295
13 288.85 310.393998707 -21.543998707 464.14388029
14 290.07 309.450782176 -19.380782176 375.61471775
15 293.28 308.262490625 -14.982490625 224.47502533
16 296.43 306.860071424 -10.430071424 108.78638991
17 296.05 305.273750143 -9.223750143 85.0775667
18 289.75 303.533030432 -13.783030432 189.97192789
19 289.1 301.666693901 -12.566693901 157.9217956
20 290.47 299.7028 -9.2328 85.24459584
21 288.07 297.668685899 -9.598685899 92.134770988
22 287.92 295.590966368 -7.670966368 58.843725019
23 287.92 293.495533657 -5.575533657 31.08657556
24 287.92 291.407557376 -3.487557376 12.163056451
25 287.64 289.351484375 -1.711484375 2.9291787659
26 286.27 287.351038624 -1.081038624 1.1686445066
27 288.41 285.429221093 2.980778907 8.8850428924
28 291.49 283.608309632 7.881690368 62.121043057
29 291.95 281.909858851 10.040141149 100.80443429
30 287.67 280.3547 7.3153 53.51361409
31 288.35 278.962940849 9.387059151 88.116879504
32 284.13 277.753965568 6.376034432 40.653815078
33 286.64 276.746434607 9.893565393 97.882636186
34 286.34 275.958284576 10.381715424 107.78001514
35 289.39 275.406728125 13.983271875 195.53189233
36 283.01 275.108253824 7.901746176 62.43759263
37 279.22 275.078626043 4.141373957 17.150978252
38 279.22 275.332884832 3.887115168 15.109664329
39 279.22 275.885345801 3.334654199 11.119918627
40 283.22 276.7496 6.4704 41.86607616
41 281.16 277.938513799 3.221486201 10.377973343
42 281.16 279.464228768 1.695771232 2.8756400713
43 283.04 281.338161557 1.701838443 2.8962540861
44 279.04 283.571003776 -4.531003776 20.529995218
45 281.04 286.172721875 -5.132721875 26.344833846
46 283.08 289.152557024 -6.072557024 36.87594881
47 291.15 292.519024993 -1.369024993 1.8742294315
48 293.23 296.279916032 -3.049916032 9.3019878023
49 292.9 300.442294751 -7.542294751 56.886210111
50 294.06 305.0125 -10.9525 119.95725625
51 305.22 309.996144749 -4.776144749 22.811558663
52 305.81 315.398115968 -9.588115968 91.931967816
53 308.81 321.222574507 -12.412574507 154.07200589
54 312.11 327.472954976 -15.362954976 236.02038559
55 320.41 334.151965625 -13.741965625 188.84161924
56 325.12 341.261588224 -16.141588224 260.55087039
57 326.07 348.803077943 -22.733077943 516.79283276
58 332.75 356.776963232 -24.026963232 577.29496215
59 339.07 365.183045701 -26.113045701 681.89115578
60 341.89 374.0204 -32.1304 1032.3626042
61 345.64 383.287373699 -37.647373699 1417.3247464
62 347.14 392.981587168 -45.841587168 2101.4511141
63 350.95 403.099933457 -52.149933457 2719.6155596
64 352.51 413.638578176 -61.128578176 3736.7030698
65 356.76 424.592959375 -67.832959375 4601.3103776
66 355.89 435.957787424 -80.067787424 6410.850583
67 354.64 447.727044893 -93.087044893 8665.1979269
68 355.84 459.893986432 -104.05398643 10827.232092
69 357.15 472.451138651 -115.30113865 13294.352574
70 359.46 485.3903 -125.9303 15858.440458
71 360.71 498.702540649 -137.99254065 19041.941275
72 360.4 512.378202368 -151.97820237 23097.373995
73 358.03 526.406898407 -168.37689841 28350.779917
74 359.5 540.777513376 -181.27751338 32861.536856
75 364.9 555.478203125 -190.57820313 36320.051506
76 380.59 570.496394624 -189.90639462 36064.438719
77 393.92 585.818785843 -191.89878584 36825.144008
78 458.74 601.431345632 -142.69134563 20360.820118
79 547.58 617.319313601 -69.739313601 4863.5718615
80 627.24 633.4672 -6.2272 38.77801984
81 626.79 649.858785599 -23.068785599 532.16886901
82 618.73 666.477121568 -47.747121568 2279.787618
83 611.51 683.304529357 -71.794529357 5154.4544456
84 604.2 700.322600576 -96.122600576 9239.5543415
85 603.97 717.512196875 -113.54219688 12891.830471
86 603.09 734.853449824 -131.76344982 17361.60671
87 605.17 752.325760793 -147.15576079 21654.817935
88 624.34 769.907800832 -145.56780083 21189.984639
89 630.33 787.577510551 -157.24751055 24726.779574
90 648.81 805.3121 -156.5021 24492.907304
91 657.64 823.088048549 -165.44804855 27373.056769
92 681.32 840.881104768 -159.56110477 25459.746155
93 691.89 858.666286307 -166.77628631 27814.329674
94 698.32 876.417879776 -178.09787978 31718.854781
95 695.93 894.109440625 -198.17944063 39275.090686
96 702.28 911.713793024 -209.43379302 43862.51366
97 689.33 929.203029743 -239.87302974 57539.070398
98 683.62 946.548512032 -262.92851203 69131.402439
99 684.05 963.720869501 -279.6708695 78215.795247
100 682 980.69 -298.69 89215.7161
101 679.21 997.425069499 -318.2150695 101260.83046
102 672.61 1013.89451197 -341.28451197 116475.11811
103 668.91 1030.06602926 -361.15602926 130433.67747
104 664.57 1045.90659098 -381.33659098 145417.59562
105 664.13 1061.38243438 -397.25243438 157809.49662
106 654.63 1076.45906422 -421.82906422 177939.75942
107 641.48 1091.10125269 -449.62125269 202159.27087
108 640.88 1105.27303923 -464.39303923 215660.89489
109 651.79 1118.93773045 -467.14773045 218227.00207
110 659.21 1132.0579 -472.8479 223585.13653
111 661.28 1144.59538845 -483.31538845 233593.76471
112 662.43 1156.51130317 -494.08130317 244116.33414
113 666.36 1167.76601821 -501.40601821 251407.99509
114 665.76 1178.31917418 -512.55917418 262716.90703
115 668.56 1188.12967813 -519.56967813 269952.65043
116 665.84 1197.15570342 -531.31570342 282296.3767
117 665.56 1205.35468964 -539.79468964 291378.30697
118 663.84 1212.68334243 -548.84334243 301229.01453
119 663.22 1219.0976334 -555.8776334 308999.94332
120 663.84 1224.5528 -560.7128 314398.84408
5394656.1966
FASE II
Suponemos que la tendencia es descrita por una curva logistica Tt = 1/(β0 +β1β2t)

t xt Tt et et2
1 311.79 285.474188467 26.3158115333 692.521936659
2 311.79 285.720491314 26.0695086858 679.619283119
3 311.79 285.974731693 25.8152683072 666.428077775
4 311.79 286.23717981 25.5528201896 652.946619644
5 311.79 286.508115994 25.2818840059 639.173658885
6 309.05 286.787831128 22.2621688721 495.604162888
7 309.05 287.076627112 21.9733728879 482.82911607
8 299.12 287.374817348 11.7451826523 137.949315535
9 310.8 287.682727246 23.1172727542 534.408299593
10 310.34 288.000694764 22.3393052364 499.044558444
11 288.85 288.32907097 0.52092902972 0.27136705401
12 288.85 288.668220642 0.18177935803 0.033043735
13 288.85 289.018522891 -0.1685228906 0.02839996464
14 290.07 289.380371826 0.68962817362 0.47558701785
15 293.28 289.754177258 3.52582274181 12.4314260066
16 296.43 290.140365432 6.28963456754 39.5595029932
17 296.05 290.539379815 5.51062018534 30.366934827
18 289.75 290.951681916 -1.2016819155 1.44403942616
19 289.1 291.377752165 -2.2777521653 5.18815492662
20 290.47 291.818090839 -1.3480908391 1.81734891058 De la grafica se observa que la
21 288.07 292.273219037 -4.2032190375 17.667050277
22 287.92 292.743679725 -4.8236797252 23.2678860916
23 287.92 293.230038834 -5.3100388338 28.196512416
24 287.92 293.73288643 -5.8128864304 33.789648653
25 287.64 294.252837961 -6.6128379606 43.7296258927
26 286.27 294.790535567 -8.5205355671 72.5995263501
27 288.41 295.346649494 -6.9366494937 48.1171061989
28 291.49 295.921879578 -4.431879578 19.641556594
29 291.95 296.516956841 -4.5669568409 20.857094787
30 287.67 297.132645181 -9.4626451807 89.5416538166
31 288.35 297.769743179 -9.4197431788 88.7315615546
32 284.13 298.429086027 -14.299086027 204.463861198
33 286.64 299.111547584 -12.471547584 155.539499133
34 286.34 299.818042576 -13.478042576 181.657631679
35 289.39 300.549528948 -11.159528948 124.535086332
36 283.01 301.307010378 -18.297010378 334.780588773
37 279.22 302.091538978 -22.871538978 523.107295205
38 279.22 302.904218178 -23.684218178 560.942190712
39 279.22 303.746205834 -24.526205834 601.534772604
40 283.22 304.618717551 -21.398717551 457.905112842
41 281.16 305.523030269 -24.363030269 593.55724391
42 281.16 306.46048611 -25.30048611 640.114597385
43 283.04 307.432496523 -24.392496523 594.993886612
44 279.04 308.440546758 -29.400546758 864.392149662
45 281.04 309.486200684 -28.446200684 809.186333372
46 283.08 310.571105998 -27.491105998 755.760909017
47 291.15 311.696999853 -20.546999853 422.179202958
48 293.23 312.865714949 -19.635714949 385.561301541
49 292.9 314.079186133 -21.179186133 448.557925261
50 294.06 315.339457559 -21.279457559 452.815314008
51 305.22 316.648690454 -11.428690454 130.614965495
52 305.81 318.009171568 -12.199171568 148.819786952
53 308.81 319.423322367 -10.613322367 112.64261167
54 312.11 320.893709049 -8.783709049 77.1535446571
55 320.41 322.423053473 -2.0130534731 4.05238428552
56 325.12 324.014245099 1.10575490057 1.22269390012
57 326.07 325.670354048 0.39964595171 0.15971688672
58 332.75 327.394645406 5.3553545939 28.6798228264
59 339.07 329.190594918 9.87940508187 97.6026447716
60 341.89 331.061906228 10.8280937724 117.247614744
61 345.64 333.012529842 12.6274701579 159.453002588
62 347.14 335.046684033 12.0933159668 146.248291073
63 350.95 337.168877902 13.7811220978 189.919326275
64 352.51 339.38393688 13.1260631197 172.293533022
65 356.76 341.697030967 15.0629690329 226.893036085
66 355.89 344.113706058 11.7762939425 138.681099019
67 354.64 346.639918758 8.00008124166 64.0012998732
68 355.84 349.282075157 6.5579248428 43.0063782438
69 357.15 352.047074077 5.10292592278 26.0398529734
70 359.46 354.942355435 4.51764456525 20.4091124179
71 360.71 357.975954417 2.73404558263 7.4750052479
72 360.4 361.156562316 -0.7565623157 0.5723865376
73 358.03 364.493594983 -6.4635949831 41.7780601059
74 359.5 367.997270062 -8.4972700621 72.2035985086
75 364.9 371.678694317 -6.7786943172 45.9506966467
76 380.59 375.549962651 5.04003734918 25.4019764811
77 393.92 379.624270667 14.2957293329 204.36787716
78 458.74 383.916042998 74.8239570018 5598.62454141
79 547.58 388.441080028 159.138919972 25325.1958499
80 627.24 393.216726167 234.023273833 54766.8926954
81 626.79 398.262063465 228.527936535 52225.0177769
82 618.73 403.598135122 215.131864878 46281.719286
83 611.51 409.248204434 202.261795566 40909.8339454
84 604.2 415.238055905 188.961944095 35706.6163163
85 603.97 421.596346741 182.373653259 33260.149403
86 603.09 428.35501888 174.73498112 30532.3136271
 87 605.17 435.549784038 169.620215962 28771.0176631
88 624.34 443.220697359 181.119302641 32804.2017892
89 630.33 451.412839128 178.917160872 32011.3504546
90 648.81 460.177129069 188.632870931 35582.3599956
91 657.64 469.571304326 188.068695674 35369.8342925
92 681.32 479.661100828 201.658899172 40666.3116154
93 691.89 490.521689173 201.368310827 40549.1966054
94 698.32 502.239431377 196.080568623 38447.5893915
95 695.93 514.914045373 181.015954627 32766.7758295
96 702.28 528.66129212 173.61870788 30143.4557258
97 689.33 543.61633871 145.71366129 21232.4710867
98 683.62 559.938004547 123.681995453 15297.2359993
99 684.05 577.814173517 106.235826483 11286.0508286
100 682 597.468763578 84.5312364219 7145.52993102
101 679.21 619.170802997 60.0391970029 3604.70517675
102 672.61 643.246395507 29.3636044935 862.221268848
103 668.91 670.094707277 -1.1847072769 1.40353133188
104 664.57 700.209646439 -35.639646439 1270.18439826
105 664.13 734.209749147 -70.079749147 4911.17124048
106 654.63 772.880140481 -118.25014048 13983.0957239
107 641.48 817.232672794 -175.75267279 30889.0019943
108 640.88 868.594143285 -227.71414328 51853.7310519
109 651.79 928.73917708 -276.94917708 76700.8466854
110 659.21 1000.09659113 -340.88659113 116203.668013
111 661.28 1086.08145649 -424.80145649 180456.277436
112 662.43 1191.65227656 -529.22227656 280076.218009
113 666.36 1324.29401062 -657.93401062 432877.16233
114 665.76 1495.86208542 -830.10208542 689069.472216
115 668.56 1726.31756085 -1057.7575609 1118851.05754
116 665.84 2052.0827067 -1386.2427067 1921668.84189
117 665.56 2547.41679342 -1881.8567934 3541384.99092
118 663.84 3390.78671295 -2726.9467129 7436238.37525
119 663.22 5146.4433071 -4483.2233071 20099291.2213
120 663.84 11032.5835093 -10368.743509 107510841.961
144255188.107
 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 xt = precio mensual por millar del Lad
345.64 358.03 603.97 689.33 651.79
347.14 359.50 603.09 683.62 659.21
350.95 364.90 605.17 684.05 661.28
352.51 380.59 624.34 682.00 662.43
356.76 393.92 630.33 679.21 666.36
355.89 458.74 648.81 672.61 665.76
354.64 547.58 657.64 668.91 668.56
355.84 627.24 681.32 664.57 665.84
357.15 626.79 691.89 664.13 665.56
359.46 618.73 698.32 654.63 663.84
360.71 611.51 695.93 641.48 663.22
360.40 604.20 702.28 640.88 663.84
4257.09 5951.73 7843.09 8025.42 7957.69

el Ladrillo REX en Lima Metropolitana durante los años 2001 y Por observación decimos que la serie tiene 2
componentes, siendo éstas componente de
tendencia polinomial de grado 4 y aleatoriedad

Como por observación la serie presenta 2

8 x⁶ − 7.7188E-06 x⁵ + 0.00102996 x⁴ − 0.0620137 x³ + 1.730228 x² − 20.38805 x componentes, se aplicará los métodos del
análisis exploratorio para confirmar la existencia
532275 de la componente de tendencia(T) .

2 6 3 1 3 6 41 4 6 5 1 5 6 6 1 66 71 7 6 8 1 8 6 91 96 10 1 10 6 11 1 1 1 6

Axis Title

onente de tendencia

GRAFICA DE TOTALES
9000
8000
Por Grafica de Tot
7000
puede decir qu
6000 comportamiento
5000 totales tendencia es
polinomio de gra
 9000
8000
Por Grafica de Tot
7000
puede decir qu
6000 comportamiento
5000 totales tendencia es
polinomio de gra
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Boxplot of C1

Uniendo las medianas Observ

que la tendencia es un polino
grado 4

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
C2

Por observacion decimos que la serie tiene dos componenetes siendo estas: tendencia y aleatoriedad tambie
observar que el comportamiento de la serie, muestra que su nivel es variable y su dispersión es variable, Lo
que las componentes se relacionan de manera multiplicativa Xt = Tt*At .

de estacionalidad

Boxplot of C1

700
 Boxplot of C1

700

600

500
C1

400

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
C3

SUPERPUESTOS

800.00

700.00

600.00 Column C
Column D
500.00 Column E
Column F
400.00 Column G
Column H
300.00 Column I
Column J
200.00 Column K
Column L
100.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

287.64 279.22 292.90 345.64 358.03 603.97 689.33
286.27 279.22 294.06 347.14 359.50 603.09 683.62
288.41 279.22 305.22 350.95 364.90 605.17 684.05
291.49 283.22 305.81 352.51 380.59 624.34 682.00
291.95 281.16 308.81 356.76 393.92 630.33 679.21
 287.67 281.16 312.11 355.89 458.74 648.81 672.61
288.35 283.04 320.41 354.64 547.58 657.64 668.91
284.13 279.04 325.12 355.84 627.24 681.32 664.57
286.64 281.04 326.07 357.15 626.79 691.89 664.13
286.34 283.08 332.75 359.46 618.73 698.32 654.63
289.39 291.15 339.07 360.71 611.51 695.93 641.48
283.01 293.23 341.89 360.40 604.20 702.28 640.88
287.61 282.82 317.02 354.76 495.98 653.59 668.79
2.63 4.67 16.45 4.88 119.50 39.53 16.34
5.66 5.64 5.76 5.87 6.21 6.48 6.51
0.97 1.54 2.80 1.59 4.78 3.68 2.79

Row 145
Linear (Row 145)

80 5.90 6.00 6.10 6.20 6.30 6.40 6.50 6.60

a que su nivel que es variable y su dispersión es variable lo cual implica

= Tt*At .

Tt
800
700
600
500
400 Tt
 Tt
800
700
600
500
400 Tt

300
200
100
0
1 7 1 3 19 2 5 31 37 4 3 49 5 5 61 6 7 73 79 8 5 91 9 7 0 3 0 9 1 5
1 1 1

At
1.4

1.2
1

0.8
At
0.6

0.4

0.2

0
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 6 7 7 3 7 9 8 5 9 1 9 7 0 3 0 9 1 5
1 1 1

zt
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
zt
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 7 13 19 2 5 31 3 7 43 4 9 55 61 6 7 73 7 9 85 91 9 7 0 3 0 9 1 5
1 1 1
MPO

docima h0= b4=0

t^4 t^5 t^6 t^7 t^8 t*xt t^2*xt

1 1 1 1 1 311.79 311.79
16 32 64 128 256 623.58 1247.16
81 243 729 2187 6561 935.37 2806.11
256 1024 4096 16384 65536 1247.16 4988.64
625 3125 15625 78125 390625 1558.95 7794.75
1296 7776 46656 279936 1679616 1854.3 11125.8
2401 16807 117649 823543 5764801 2163.35 15143.45
4096 32768 262144 2097152 16777216 2392.96 19143.68
 6561 59049 531441 4782969 43046721 2797.2 25174.8
10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 3103.4 31034
14641 161051 1771561 19487171 214358881 3177.35 34950.85
20736 248832 2985984 35831808 429981696 3466.2 41594.4
28561 371293 4826809 62748517 815730721 3755.05 48815.65
38416 537824 7529536 105413504 1475789056 4060.98 56853.72
50625 759375 11390625 170859375 2562890625 4399.2 65988
65536 1048576 16777216 268435456 4294967296 4742.88 75886.08
83521 1419857 24137569 410338673 6975757441 5032.85 85558.45
104976 1889568 34012224 612220032 11019960576 5215.5 93879
130321 2476099 47045881 893871739 16983563041 5492.9 104365.1
160000 3200000 64000000 1280000000 25600000000 5809.4 116188
194481 4084101 85766121 1801088541 37822859361 6049.47 127038.87
234256 5153632 113379904 2494357888 54875873536 6334.24 139353.28
279841 6436343 148035889 3404825447 78310985281 6622.16 152309.68
331776 7962624 191102976 4586471424 110075314176 6910.08 165841.92
390625 9765625 244140625 6103515625 152587890625 7191 179775
456976 11881376 308915776 8031810176 208827064576 7443.02 193518.52
531441 14348907 387420489 10460353203 282429536481 7787.07 210250.89
614656 17210368 481890304 13492928512 377801998336 8161.72 228528.16
707281 20511149 594823321 17249876309 500246412961 8466.55 245529.95
810000 24300000 729000000 21870000000 656100000000 8630.1 258903
923521 28629151 887503681 27512614111 852891037441 8938.85 277104.35
1048576 33554432 1073741824 34359738368 1.099512E+12 9092.16 290949.12
1185921 39135393 1291467969 42618442977 1.406409E+12 9459.12 312150.96
1336336 45435424 1544804416 52523350144 1.785794E+12 9735.56 331009.04
1500625 52521875 1838265625 64339296875 2.251875E+12 10128.65 354502.75
1679616 60466176 2176782336 78364164096 2.82111E+12 10188.36 366780.96
1874161 69343957 2565726409 94931877133 3.512479E+12 10331.14 382252.18
2085136 79235168 3010936384 114415582592 4.347792E+12 10610.36 403193.68
2313441 90224199 3518743761 137231006679 5.352009E+12 10889.58 424693.62
2560000 102400000 4096000000 163840000000 6.5536E+12 11328.8 453152
2825761 115856201 4750104241 194754273881 7.984925E+12 11527.56 472629.96
3111696 130691232 5489031744 230539333248 9.682652E+12 11808.72 495966.24
3418801 147008443 6321363049 271818611107 1.16882E+13 12170.72 523340.96
3748096 164916224 7256313856 319277809664 1.404822E+13 12277.76 540221.44
4100625 184528125 8303765625 373669453125 1.681513E+13 12646.8 569106
4477456 205962976 9474296896 435817657216 2.004761E+13 13021.68 598997.28
4879681 229345007 10779215329 506623120463 2.381129E+13 13684.05 643150.35
5308416 254803968 12230590464 587068342272 2.817928E+13 14075.04 675601.92
5764801 282475249 13841287201 678223072849 3.323293E+13 14352.1 703252.9
6250000 312500000 15625000000 781250000000 3.90625E+13 14703 735150
6765201 345025251 17596287801 897410677851 4.576794E+13 15566.22 793877.22
7311616 380204032 19770609664 1.028072E+12 5.345973E+13 15902.12 826910.24
7890481 418195493 22164361129 1.174711E+12 6.225969E+13 16366.93 867447.29
 8503056 459165024 24794911296 1.338925E+12 7.230196E+13 16853.94 910112.76
9150625 503284375 27680640625 1.522435E+12 8.373394E+13 17622.55 969240.25
9834496 550731776 30840979456 1.727095E+12 9.671731E+13 18206.72 1019576.32
10556001 601692057 34296447249 1.954897E+12 1.114292E+14 18585.99 1059401.43
11316496 656356768 38068692544 2.207984E+12 1.280631E+14 19299.5 1119371
12117361 714924299 42180533641 2.488651E+12 1.468304E+14 20005.13 1180302.67
12960000 777600000 46656000000 2.79936E+12 1.679616E+14 20513.4 1230804
13845841 844596301 51520374361 3.142743E+12 1.917073E+14 21084.04 1286126.44
14776336 916132832 56800235584 3.521615E+12 2.183401E+14 21522.68 1334406.16
15752961 992436543 62523502209 3.938981E+12 2.481558E+14 22109.85 1392920.55
16777216 1073741824 68719476736 4.398047E+12 2.81475E+14 22560.64 1443880.96
17850625 1160290625 75418890625 4.902228E+12 3.186448E+14 23189.4 1507311
18974736 1252332576 82653950016 5.455161E+12 3.600406E+14 23488.74 1550256.84
20151121 1350125107 90458382169 6.060712E+12 4.060677E+14 23760.88 1591978.96
21381376 1453933568 98867482624 6.722989E+12 4.571632E+14 24197.12 1645404.16
22667121 1564031349 107918163081 7.446353E+12 5.137984E+14 24643.35 1700391.15
24010000 1680700000 117649000000 8.23543E+12 5.764801E+14 25162.2 1761354
25411681 1804229351 128100283921 9.09512E+12 6.457535E+14 25610.41 1818339.11
26873856 1934917632 139314069504 1.003061E+13 7.222041E+14 25948.8 1868313.6
28398241 2073071593 151334226289 1.10474E+13 8.064601E+14 26136.19 1907941.87
29986576 2219006624 164206490176 1.215128E+13 8.991947E+14 26603 1968622
31640625 2373046875 177978515625 1.334839E+13 1.001129E+15 27367.5 2052562.5
33362176 2535525376 192699928576 1.464519E+13 1.113035E+15 28924.84 2198287.84
35153041 2706784157 208422380089 1.604852E+13 1.235736E+15 30331.84 2335551.68
37015056 2887174368 225199600704 1.756557E+13 1.370114E+15 35781.72 2790974.16
38950081 3077056399 243087455521 1.920391E+13 1.517109E+15 43258.82 3417446.78
40960000 3276800000 262144000000 2.097152E+13 1.677722E+15 50179.2 4014336
43046721 3486784401 282429536481 2.287679E+13 1.85302E+15 50769.99 4112369.19
45212176 3707398432 304006671424 2.492855E+13 2.044141E+15 50735.86 4160340.52
47458321 3939040643 326940373369 2.713605E+13 2.252292E+15 50755.33 4212692.39
49787136 4182119424 351298031616 2.950903E+13 2.478759E+15 50752.8 4263235.2
52200625 4437053125 377149515625 3.205771E+13 2.724905E+15 51337.45 4363683.25
54700816 4704270176 404567235136 3.479278E+13 2.992179E+15 51865.74 4460453.64
57289761 4984209207 433626201009 3.772548E+13 3.282117E+15 52649.79 4580531.73
59969536 5277319168 464404086784 4.086756E+13 3.596345E+15 54941.92 4834888.96
62742241 5584059449 496981290961 4.423133E+13 3.936589E+15 56099.37 4992843.93
65610000 5904900000 531441000000 4.782969E+13 4.304672E+15 58392.9 5255361
68574961 6240321451 567869252041 5.16761E+13 4.702525E+15 59845.24 5445916.84
71639296 6590815232 606355001344 5.578466E+13 5.132189E+15 62681.44 5766692.48
74805201 6956883693 646990183449 6.017009E+13 5.595818E+15 64345.77 5984156.61
78074896 7339040224 689869781056 6.484776E+13 6.095689E+15 65642.08 6170355.52
81450625 7737809375 735091890625 6.983373E+13 6.634204E+15 66113.35 6280768.25
84934656 8153726976 782757789696 7.514475E+13 7.213896E+15 67418.88 6472212.48
88529281 8587340257 832972004929 8.079828E+13 7.837434E+15 66865.01 6485905.97
92236816 9039207968 885842380864 8.681255E+13 8.50763E+15 66994.76 6565486.48
 96059601 9509900499 941480149401 9.320653E+13 9.227447E+15 67720.95 6704374.05
100000000 10000000000 1E+12 1E+14 1E+016 68200 6820000
104060401 10510100501 1.06152E+12 1.072135E+14 1.082857E+16 68600.21 6928621.21
108243216 11040808032 1.126162E+12 1.148686E+14 1.171659E+16 68606.22 6997834.44
112550881 11592740743 1.194052E+12 1.229874E+14 1.26677E+16 68897.73 7096466.19
116985856 12166529024 1.265319E+12 1.315932E+14 1.368569E+16 69115.28 7187989.12
121550625 12762815625 1.340096E+12 1.4071E+14 1.477455E+16 69733.65 7322033.25
126247696 13382255776 1.418519E+12 1.50363E+14 1.593848E+16 69390.78 7355422.68
131079601 14025517307 1.50073E+12 1.605781E+14 1.718186E+16 68638.36 7344304.52
136048896 14693280768 1.586874E+12 1.713824E+14 1.85093E+16 69215.04 7475224.32
141158161 15386239549 1.6771E+12 1.828039E+14 1.992563E+16 71045.11 7743916.99
146410000 16105100000 1.771561E+12 1.948717E+14 2.143589E+16 72513.1 7976441
151807041 16850581551 1.870415E+12 2.07616E+14 2.304538E+16 73402.08 8147630.88
157351936 17623416832 1.973823E+12 2.210681E+14 2.475963E+16 74192.16 8309521.92
163047361 18424351793 2.081952E+12 2.352605E+14 2.658444E+16 75298.68 8508750.84
168896016 19254145824 2.194973E+12 2.502269E+14 2.852586E+16 75896.64 8652216.96
174900625 20113571875 2.313061E+12 2.66002E+14 3.059023E+16 76884.4 8841706
181063936 21003416576 2.436396E+12 2.82622E+14 3.278415E+16 77237.44 8959543.04
187388721 21924480357 2.565164E+12 3.001242E+14 3.511453E+16 77870.52 9110850.84
193877776 22877577568 2.699554E+12 3.185474E+14 3.758859E+16 78333.12 9243308.16
200533921 23863536599 2.839761E+12 3.379315E+14 4.021385E+16 78923.18 9391858.42
207360000 24883200000 2.985984E+12 3.583181E+14 4.299817E+16 79660.8 9559296
5080895996 510191998800 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15 5.950469E+17 3745072.64 331945758.62

120 7260 583220 52707600 5080895996

7260 583220 52707600 5080895996510191998800
583220 52707600 5080895996 510191998800 5.269373E+13
52707600 5080895996 510191998800 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15
5080895996510191998800 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15 5.950469E+17

matriz inversa

0.230631266 -0.022957286 0.000666702 -7.376681E-06 2.754777E-08 51845.15

-0.02295729 0.002971289 -9.625982E-05 1.1312799E-06 -4.3896E-09 3745072.64
0.000666702 -9.62598E-05 3.316772E-06 -4.054467E-08 1.616735E-10 331945758.62
-7.37668E-06 1.13128E-06 -4.054467E-08 5.0940541E-10 -2.07266E-12 31774641396
2.754777E-08 -4.3896E-09 1.6167353E-10 -2.072659E-12 8.564707E-15 3.172196E+12

284.8552239
5.782946995
-0.37842255
 0.00694189
-3.33619E-05

H0: b4=0
H1: b4¹0

alfa=0.05

tcal= 9.8048396043 equivale t(n-q-1)=t115= 1.984

1.984 9.8048396043

se rechaza ho: es un polinomio de cuarto grado

Residuos Segun Polinomio de Grado 4 Del grafico de Residuos se observa q

comportamiento aleatorio, es decir
150 postulo es el adeciuado, por lo tant
queda validado.
100

50

0
1 6 1 1 16 2 1 2 6 31 36 41 4 6 5 1 56 6 1 66 7 1 76 8 1 86 9 1 96 0 1 0 6 1 1 1 6
1 1 1 1
-50
150

100

50

0
1 6 1 1 16 2 1 2 6 31 36 41 4 6 5 1 56 6 1 66 7 1 76 8 1 86 9 1 96 0 1 0 6 1 1 1 6
1 1 1 1
-50

-100

-150

Column E

CORRELOGRAMA DE RESIDUOS

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Lag
Lima Metropolitana sera de S/.590.67

CORRELOGRAMA LIBRE DE TENDENCIA

.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
.0
.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Lag
 800

700
f(x) = − 9.7893E-10 x⁵ − 3.30658E-05 x⁴ + 0.00690997 x³ − 0.376965 x²
600 + 5.75733 x + 284.965

500

400
Column B
300 Polynomial (Column B)

200

100

0
docima h0= b5=0

t^5 t^6 t^7 t^8 t^9 t^10 t*xt

1 1 1 1 1 1 311.79
32 64 128 256 512 1024 623.58
243 729 2187 6561 19683 59049 935.37
1024 4096 16384 65536 262144 1048576 1247.16
3125 15625 78125 390625 1953125 9765625 1558.95
7776 46656 279936 1679616 10077696 60466176 1854.3
16807 117649 823543 5764801 40353607 282475249 2163.35
32768 262144 2097152 16777216 134217728 1073741824 2392.96
59049 531441 4782969 43046721 387420489 3486784401 2797.2
100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 1000000000 1E+10 3103.4
161051 1771561 19487171 214358881 2357947691 2.5937E+10 3177.35
248832 2985984 35831808 429981696 5159780352 6.1917E+10 3466.2
371293 4826809 62748517 815730721 10604499373 1.3786E+11 3755.05
537824 7529536 105413504 1475789056 20661046784 2.8925E+11 4060.98
759375 11390625 170859375 2562890625 38443359375 5.7665E+11 4399.2
 1048576 16777216 268435456 4294967296 68719476736 1.0995E+12 4742.88
1419857 24137569 410338673 6975757441118587876497 2.016E+12 5032.85
1889568 34012224 612220032 11019960576198359290368 3.5705E+12 5215.5
2476099 47045881 893871739 16983563041322687697779 6.1311E+12 5492.9
3200000 64000000 1280000000 25600000000512000000000 1.024E+13 5809.4
4084101 85766121 1801088541 37822859361794280046581 1.668E+13 6049.47
5153632 113379904 2494357888 54875873536 1.207269E+12 2.656E+13 6334.24
6436343 148035889 3404825447 78310985281 1.801153E+12 4.1427E+13 6622.16
7962624 191102976 4586471424 110075314176 2.641808E+12 6.3403E+13 6910.08
9765625 244140625 6103515625 152587890625 3.814697E+12 9.5367E+13 7191
11881376 308915776 8031810176 208827064576 5.429504E+12 1.4117E+14 7443.02
14348907 387420489 10460353203 282429536481 7.625597E+12 2.0589E+14 7787.07
17210368 481890304 13492928512 377801998336 1.057846E+13 2.962E+14 8161.72
20511149 594823321 17249876309 500246412961 1.450715E+13 4.2071E+14 8466.55
24300000 729000000 21870000000 656100000000 1.9683E+13 5.9049E+14 8630.1
28629151 887503681 27512614111 852891037441 2.643962E+13 8.1963E+14 8938.85
33554432 1073741824 34359738368 1.099512E+12 3.518437E+13 1.1259E+15 9092.16
39135393 1291467969 42618442977 1.406409E+12 4.641148E+13 1.5316E+15 9459.12
45435424 1544804416 52523350144 1.785794E+12 6.071699E+13 2.0644E+15 9735.56
52521875 1838265625 64339296875 2.251875E+12 7.881564E+13 2.7585E+15 10128.65
60466176 2176782336 78364164096 2.82111E+12 1.0156E+14 3.6562E+15 10188.36
69343957 2565726409 94931877133 3.512479E+12 1.299617E+14 4.8086E+15 10331.14
79235168 3010936384 114415582592 4.347792E+12 1.652161E+14 6.2782E+15 10610.36
90224199 3518743761 137231006679 5.352009E+12 2.087284E+14 8.1404E+15 10889.58
102400000 4096000000 163840000000 6.5536E+12 2.62144E+14 1.0486E+16 11328.8
115856201 4750104241 194754273881 7.984925E+12 3.273819E+14 1.3423E+16 11527.56
130691232 5489031744 230539333248 9.682652E+12 4.066714E+14 1.708E+16 11808.72
147008443 6321363049 271818611107 1.16882E+13 5.025926E+14 2.1611E+16 12170.72
164916224 7256313856 319277809664 1.404822E+13 6.181218E+14 2.7197E+16 12277.76
184528125 8303765625 373669453125 1.681513E+13 7.566806E+14 3.4051E+16 12646.8
205962976 9474296896 435817657216 2.004761E+13 9.221902E+14 4.2421E+16 13021.68
229345007 10779215329 506623120463 2.381129E+13 1.11913E+15 5.2599E+16 13684.05
254803968 12230590464 587068342272 2.817928E+13 1.352605E+15 6.4925E+16 14075.04
282475249 13841287201 678223072849 3.323293E+13 1.628414E+15 7.9792E+16 14352.1
312500000 15625000000 781250000000 3.90625E+13 1.953125E+15 9.7656E+16 14703
345025251 17596287801 897410677851 4.576794E+13 2.334165E+15 1.1904E+17 15566.22
380204032 19770609664 1.028072E+12 5.345973E+13 2.779906E+15 1.4456E+17 15902.12
418195493 22164361129 1.174711E+12 6.225969E+13 3.299764E+15 1.7489E+17 16366.93
459165024 24794911296 1.338925E+12 7.230196E+13 3.904306E+15 2.1083E+17 16853.94
503284375 27680640625 1.522435E+12 8.373394E+13 4.605367E+15 2.533E+17 17622.55
550731776 30840979456 1.727095E+12 9.671731E+13 5.416169E+15 3.0331E+17 18206.72
601692057 34296447249 1.954897E+12 1.114292E+14 6.351462E+15 3.6203E+17 18585.99
656356768 38068692544 2.207984E+12 1.280631E+14 7.427659E+15 4.308E+17 19299.5
714924299 42180533641 2.488651E+12 1.468304E+14 8.662996E+15 5.1112E+17 20005.13
777600000 46656000000 2.79936E+12 1.679616E+14 1.00777E+16 6.0466E+17 20513.4
 844596301 51520374361 3.142743E+12 1.917073E+14 1.169415E+16 7.1334E+17 21084.04
916132832 56800235584 3.521615E+12 2.183401E+14 1.353709E+16 8.393E+17 21522.68
992436543 62523502209 3.938981E+12 2.481558E+14 1.563381E+16 9.8493E+17 22109.85
1073741824 68719476736 4.398047E+12 2.81475E+14 1.80144E+16 1.1529E+18 22560.64
1160290625 75418890625 4.902228E+12 3.186448E+14 2.071191E+16 1.3463E+18 23189.4
1252332576 82653950016 5.455161E+12 3.600406E+14 2.376268E+16 1.5683E+18 23488.74
1350125107 90458382169 6.060712E+12 4.060677E+14 2.720653E+16 1.8228E+18 23760.88
1453933568 98867482624 6.722989E+12 4.571632E+14 3.10871E+16 2.1139E+18 24197.12
1564031349107918163081 7.446353E+12 5.137984E+14 3.545209E+16 2.4462E+18 24643.35
1680700000117649000000 8.23543E+12 5.764801E+14 4.035361E+16 2.8248E+18 25162.2
1804229351128100283921 9.09512E+12 6.457535E+14 4.58485E+16 3.2552E+18 25610.41
1934917632139314069504 1.003061E+13 7.222041E+14 5.19987E+16 3.7439E+18 25948.8
2073071593151334226289 1.10474E+13 8.064601E+14 5.887159E+16 4.2976E+18 26136.19
2219006624164206490176 1.215128E+13 8.991947E+14 6.654041E+16 4.924E+18 26603
2373046875177978515625 1.334839E+13 1.001129E+15 7.508469E+16 5.6314E+18 27367.5
2535525376192699928576 1.464519E+13 1.113035E+15 8.459064E+16 6.4289E+18 28924.84
2706784157208422380089 1.604852E+13 1.235736E+15 9.515169E+16 7.3267E+18 30331.84
2887174368225199600704 1.756557E+13 1.370114E+15 1.068689E+17 8.3358E+18 35781.72
3077056399243087455521 1.920391E+13 1.517109E+15 1.198516E+17 9.4683E+18 43258.82
3276800000262144000000 2.097152E+13 1.677722E+15 1.342177E+17 1.0737E+19 50179.2
3486784401282429536481 2.287679E+13 1.85302E+15 1.500946E+17 1.2158E+19 50769.99
3707398432304006671424 2.492855E+13 2.044141E+15 1.676196E+17 1.3745E+19 50735.86
3939040643326940373369 2.713605E+13 2.252292E+15 1.869403E+17 1.5516E+19 50755.33
4182119424351298031616 2.950903E+13 2.478759E+15 2.082157E+17 1.749E+19 50752.8
4437053125377149515625 3.205771E+13 2.724905E+15 2.316169E+17 1.9687E+19 51337.45
4704270176404567235136 3.479278E+13 2.992179E+15 2.573274E+17 2.213E+19 51865.74
4984209207433626201009 3.772548E+13 3.282117E+15 2.855442E+17 2.4842E+19 52649.79
5277319168464404086784 4.086756E+13 3.596345E+15 3.164784E+17 2.785E+19 54941.92
5584059449496981290961 4.423133E+13 3.936589E+15 3.503564E+17 3.1182E+19 56099.37
5904900000531441000000 4.782969E+13 4.304672E+15 3.874205E+17 3.4868E+19 58392.9
6240321451567869252041 5.16761E+13 4.702525E+15 4.279298E+17 3.8942E+19 59845.24
6590815232606355001344 5.578466E+13 5.132189E+15 4.721614E+17 4.3439E+19 62681.44
6956883693646990183449 6.017009E+13 5.595818E+15 5.204111E+17 4.8398E+19 64345.77
7339040224689869781056 6.484776E+13 6.095689E+15 5.729948E+17 5.3862E+19 65642.08
7737809375735091890625 6.983373E+13 6.634204E+15 6.302494E+17 5.9874E+19 66113.35
8153726976782757789696 7.514475E+13 7.213896E+15 6.92534E+17 6.6483E+19 67418.88
8587340257832972004929 8.079828E+13 7.837434E+15 7.602311E+17 7.3742E+19 66865.01
9039207968885842380864 8.681255E+13 8.50763E+15 8.337478E+17 8.1707E+19 66994.76
9509900499941480149401 9.320653E+13 9.227447E+15 9.135172E+17 9.0438E+19 67720.95
10000000000 1E+12 1E+14 1E+016 1E+018 1E+020 68200
10510100501 1.06152E+12 1.072135E+14 1.082857E+16 1.093685E+18 1.1046E+20 68600.21
11040808032 1.126162E+12 1.148686E+14 1.171659E+16 1.195093E+18 1.219E+20 68606.22
11592740743 1.194052E+12 1.229874E+14 1.26677E+16 1.304773E+18 1.3439E+20 68897.73
12166529024 1.265319E+12 1.315932E+14 1.368569E+16 1.423312E+18 1.4802E+20 69115.28
12762815625 1.340096E+12 1.4071E+14 1.477455E+16 1.551328E+18 1.6289E+20 69733.65
 13382255776 1.418519E+12 1.50363E+14 1.593848E+16 1.689479E+18 1.7908E+20 69390.78
14025517307 1.50073E+12 1.605781E+14 1.718186E+16 1.838459E+18 1.9672E+20 68638.36
14693280768 1.586874E+12 1.713824E+14 1.85093E+16 1.999005E+18 2.1589E+20 69215.04
15386239549 1.6771E+12 1.828039E+14 1.992563E+16 2.171893E+18 2.3674E+20 71045.11
16105100000 1.771561E+12 1.948717E+14 2.143589E+16 2.357948E+18 2.5937E+20 72513.1
16850581551 1.870415E+12 2.07616E+14 2.304538E+16 2.558037E+18 2.8394E+20 73402.08
17623416832 1.973823E+12 2.210681E+14 2.475963E+16 2.773079E+18 3.1058E+20 74192.16
18424351793 2.081952E+12 2.352605E+14 2.658444E+16 3.004042E+18 3.3946E+20 75298.68
19254145824 2.194973E+12 2.502269E+14 2.852586E+16 3.251949E+18 3.7072E+20 75896.64
20113571875 2.313061E+12 2.66002E+14 3.059023E+16 3.517876E+18 4.0456E+20 76884.4
21003416576 2.436396E+12 2.82622E+14 3.278415E+16 3.802961E+18 4.4114E+20 77237.44
21924480357 2.565164E+12 3.001242E+14 3.511453E+16 4.1084E+18 4.8068E+20 77870.52
22877577568 2.699554E+12 3.185474E+14 3.758859E+16 4.435454E+18 5.2338E+20 78333.12
23863536599 2.839761E+12 3.379315E+14 4.021385E+16 4.785449E+18 5.6947E+20 78923.18
24883200000 2.985984E+12 3.583181E+14 4.299817E+16 5.15978E+18 6.1917E+20 79660.8
5.10192E+11 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15 5.950469E+17 6.45295E+19 7.0685E+21 3745072.64

7260 583220 52707600 5080895996510191998800

583220 52707600 5080895996 510191998800 5.269373E+13
52707600 5080895996 510191998800 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15
𝑡4〗 5080895996510191998800 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15 5.950469E+17
5.10192E+11 5.269373E+13 5.555672E+15 5.950469E+17 6.45295E+19
b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 〗
45.26937E+13 5.555672E+15 5.950469E+17 6.45295E+19 7.068508E+21

MATRIZ INVERSA
〖𝑡 6 〗
-0.05053833 0.0022359042 -4.174182E-05 3.4638329E-07 -1.054E-09 51845.15
0.00943376 -0.000463937 9.183322E-06 -7.909545E-08 2.469615E-10 3745072.64
∑▒ 〖𝑡 7 〗-0.00046394 2.423549E-05 -4.986594E-07 4.412005E-09 -1.40507E-11 331945758.62
9.183322E-06 -4.98659E-07 1.0542005E-08 -9.515387E-11 3.077065E-13 31774641396
-7.90954E-08 4.412005E-09 -9.515387E-11 8.7216068E-13 -2.85486E-15 3.172196E+12
2.469615E-10 -1.40507E-11 3.0770649E-13 -2.854863E-15 9.437563E-18 3.255864E+14

284.9645524 1.- H0: b5=0

5.757330426 H1: b5¹0
-0.37696512
0.006909972 2.- alfa=0.05
-3.30658E-05
-9.7893E-10 3.- tcal= 0.00146485 equivale
 0.00146485 1.984

se acepta ho: no es un polinomio de quinto grado

 Trend Analysis Plot for C1
S-Curve Trend Model
Yt = (10**4) / (36.0221 - 0.963358*(1.03042**t))
12000 Variable
Actual
Fits
10000
C urv e Parameters
Intercept 270.377
8000 A sy mptote 277.608
A sy m. Rate 1.030

6000 Accuracy Measures

C1

MA PE 41
MA D 258
4000 MSD 1251519

2000

0
1 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Index

e la grafica se observa que la tendencia es Tt = 10 4/(36.0221-0.963358*(1.03042t)

GRAFICA DE RESIDUOS
2000

0
1 7 1 3 1 9 2 5 3 1 3 7 4 3 49 55 61 6 7 73 79 85 91 97 0 3 0 9 1 5
-2000 1 1 1

-4000

-6000

-8000

-10000

-12000

Column D
 2000

0
1 8 15 22 2 9 3 6 4 3 50 57 64 7 1 78 85 92 99 0 6 1 3 2 0
1 1 1
-2000

-4000
Column D
-6000

-8000

-10000

-12000

SCE
SCE FUNCION LOGISTICA 144255188.11
SCE POLINOMIO GRADO 4 155455.54301
 cio mensual por millar del Ladrillo REX en Lima Metropolitana durante los años 2001 y 2010.

n decimos que la serie tiene 2

siendo éstas componente de
nomial de grado 4 y aleatoriedad

rvación la serie presenta 2

se aplicará los métodos del
torio para confirmar la existencia
nte de tendencia(T) .

Por Grafica de Totales se

puede decir que el
comportamiento de la
tendencia es un
polinomio de grado 4.
 Por Grafica de Totales se
puede decir que el
comportamiento de la
tendencia es un
polinomio de grado 4.

Uniendo las medianas Observamos

que la tendencia es un polinomio de
grado 4

ncia y aleatoriedad tambien se puede

dispersión es variable, Lo cual implica
 Autocorrelation Function for C1
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation

0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Lag

2010
651.79
659.21
661.28
662.43
666.36
 665.76
668.56
665.84
665.56
663.84
663.22
663.84
663.14
4.36
6.50
1.47

CORRELOGRAMA DE LA TENDENCIA

1.0
0.8
0.6

0.4
tocorrelación

0.2
0.0

-0.2
 CORRELOGRAMA DE LA TENDENCIA

1.0
0.8
0.6

0.4
Autocorrelación

0.2
0.0

-0.2
-0.4

-0.6
-0.8
-1.0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Desfase
 t^3*xt t^4*xt
311.79 311.79
2494.32 4988.64
8418.33 25254.99
19954.56 79818.24 ∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡 =𝑛 𝑏𝑜+𝑏1 ∑▒𝑡 〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗
38973.75 194868.75
66754.8 400528.8 ∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 =𝑏𝑜 ∑▒𝑡+𝑏1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗
106004.15 742029.05
153149.44 1225195.52 ∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 2=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡

∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 3=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡4+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 5 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗

 ∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 =𝑏𝑜 ∑▒𝑡+𝑏1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b2 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 2=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 2 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗 + b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡

226573.2 2039158.8
310340 3103400
384459.35 4229052.85
∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 3=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡4+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 5 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗
499132.8 5989593.6
634603.45 8249844.85 ∑▒ 〖𝑥𝑡𝑡 4=𝑏0 ∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗〗 + b1 ∑▒𝑡5+ b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 7 〗
795952.08 11143329.1
989820 14847300
1214177.28 19426836.5 Grafico de la Serie Vs la Tendencia
1454493.65 24726392.1 800
1689822 30416796 700
1982936.9 37675801.1 f(x) = − 3.33619E-05 x⁴ + 0.00694189 x³ − 0.3784226 x² + 5.782947 x
600+ 284.85522
2323760 46475200
2667816.27 56024141.7 500
3065772.16 67446987.5 Column C
400
Polynomial (Column C)
3503122.64 80571820.7 Axis Title
300
3980206.08 95524945.9
4494375 112359375 200
5031481.52 130818520 100
5676774.03 153272899
0
6398788.48 179166077 1 1 3 2 5 3 7 4 9 6 1 73 85 97 0 9
1
7120368.55 206490688
7767090 233012700
8590234.85 266297280
9310371.84 297931899 Tt
10300981.7 339932395 800
11254307.4 382646450 700
12407596.3 434265869
600
13204114.6 475348124
500
14143330.7 523303234
400 Tt
15321359.8 582211674
16563051.2 645958996 300
18126080 725043200 200
19377828.4 794490963 100
20830582.1 874884447 0
22503661.3 967657435 1 8 15 2 2 29 36 4 3 50 57 6 4 7 1 78 85 9 2 99 0 6 1 3 2 0
23769743.4 1045868708 1 1 1
25609770 1152439650
27553874.9 1267478244
30228066.5 1420719123
32428892.2 1556586824
At
1.4
34459392.1 1688510213
36757500 1837875000 1.2
40487738.2 2064874649 1
42999332.5 2235965289
0.8
45974706.4 2436659438 At
0.6
0.4
0.2
 1.2
1
0.8
At
49146089 2653888808 0.6
53308213.8 2931951756 0.4
57096273.9 3197391340 0.2
60385881.5 3441995246
0
64923518 3765564044
1 8 1 5 2 2 2 9 36 43 5 0 57 64 7 1 78 85 9 2 9 9 0 6 1 3 2 0
69637857.5 4108633594 1 1 1
73848240 4430894400
78453712.8 4785676483
82733181.9 5129457279
87753994.7 5528501663
92408381.4 5914136412
97975215 6368388975
102316951 6752918795
106662590 7146393551
111887483 7608348836
117326989 8095562265
123294780 8630634600
129102077 9166247454
134518579 9685337702
139279757 1.0167E+10
145678028 1.078E+10
153942188 1.1546E+10
167069876 1.2697E+10
179837479 1.3847E+10
217695984 1.698E+10
269978296 2.1328E+10
321146880 2.5692E+10
333101904 2.6981E+10
341147923 2.7974E+10
349653468 2.9021E+10
358111757 3.0081E+10
370913076 3.1528E+10
383599013 3.299E+10
398506261 3.467E+10
425470228 3.7441E+10
444363110 3.9548E+10
472982490 4.2568E+10
495578432 4.5098E+10
530535708 4.8809E+10
556526565 5.1757E+10
580013419 5.4521E+10
596672984 5.6684E+10
621332398 5.9648E+10
629132879 6.1026E+10
643417675 6.3055E+10
 663733031 6.571E+10
682000000 6.82E+10
699790742 7.0679E+10
713779113 7.2805E+10
730936018 7.5286E+10
747550868 7.7745E+10
768813491 8.0725E+10
779674804 8.2646E+10
785840584 8.4085E+10
807324227 8.7191E+10
844086952 9.2005E+10
877408510 9.6515E+10
904387028 1.0039E+11
930666455 1.0423E+11
961488845 1.0865E+11
986352733 1.1244E+11
1016796190 1.1693E+11
1039306993 1.2056E+11
1065969548 1.2472E+11
1090710363 1.287E+11
1117631152 1.33E+11
1147115520 1.3765E+11
3.1775E+10 3.1722E+12
el grafico de Residuos se observa que los reduos tienen
mportamiento aleatorio, es decir que el modelo que se
ostulo es el adeciuado, por lo tanto el modelo postulado
ueda validado.
997 x³ − 0.376965 x²

Column B
Polynomial (Column B)

t^2*xt t^3*xt t^4*xt t^5*xt

311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79
1247.16 2494.32 4988.64 9977.28
2806.11 8418.33 25254.99 75764.97
4988.64 19954.56 79818.24 319272.96
7794.75 38973.75 194868.75 974343.75
11125.8 66754.8 400528.8 2403172.8
15143.45 106004.15 742029.05 5194203.35
19143.68 153149.44 1225195.52 9801564.16
25174.8 226573.2 2039158.8 18352429.2
31034 310340 3103400 31034000
34950.85 384459.35 4229052.85 46519581.4
41594.4 499132.8 5989593.6 71875123.2
48815.65 634603.45 8249844.85 107247983
56853.72 795952.08 11143329.1 156006608
65988 989820 14847300 222709500
 75886.08 1214177.28 19426836.5 310829384
85558.45 1454493.65 24726392.1 420348665
93879 1689822 30416796 547502328
104365.1 1982936.9 37675801.1 715840221
116188 2323760 46475200 929504000
127038.87 2667816.27 56024141.7 1176506975
139353.28 3065772.16 67446987.5 1483833725
152309.68 3503122.64 80571820.7 1853151877
165841.92 3980206.08 95524945.9 2292598702
179775 4494375 112359375 2808984375
193518.52 5031481.52 130818520 3401281508
210250.89 5676774.03 153272899 4138368268
228528.16 6398788.48 179166077 5016650168
245529.95 7120368.55 206490688 5988229951
258903 7767090 233012700 6990381000
277104.35 8590234.85 266297280 8255215691
290949.12 9310371.84 297931899 9533820764
312150.96 10300981.7 339932395 1.1218E+10
331009.04 11254307.4 382646450 1.301E+10
354502.75 12407596.3 434265869 1.5199E+10
366780.96 13204114.6 475348124 1.7113E+10
382252.18 14143330.7 523303234 1.9362E+10
403193.68 15321359.8 582211674 2.2124E+10
424693.62 16563051.2 645958996 2.5192E+10
453152 18126080 725043200 2.9002E+10
472629.96 19377828.4 794490963 3.2574E+10
495966.24 20830582.1 874884447 3.6745E+10
523340.96 22503661.3 967657435 4.1609E+10
540221.44 23769743.4 1045868708 4.6018E+10
569106 25609770 1152439650 5.186E+10
598997.28 27553874.9 1267478244 5.8304E+10
643150.35 30228066.5 1420719123 6.6774E+10
675601.92 32428892.2 1556586824 7.4716E+10
703252.9 34459392.1 1688510213 8.2737E+10
735150 36757500 1837875000 9.1894E+10
793877.22 40487738.2 2064874649 1.0531E+11
826910.24 42999332.5 2235965289 1.1627E+11
867447.29 45974706.4 2436659438 1.2914E+11
910112.76 49146089 2653888808 1.4331E+11
969240.25 53308213.8 2931951756 1.6126E+11
1019576.32 57096273.9 3197391340 1.7905E+11
1059401.43 60385881.5 3441995246 1.9619E+11
1119371 64923518 3765564044 2.184E+11
1180302.67 69637857.5 4108633594 2.4241E+11
1230804 73848240 4430894400 2.6585E+11
1286126.44 78453712.8 4785676483 2.9193E+11
1334406.16 82733181.9 5129457279 3.1803E+11
1392920.55 87753994.7 5528501663 3.483E+11
1443880.96 92408381.4 5914136412 3.785E+11
1507311 97975215 6368388975 4.1395E+11
1550256.84 102316951 6752918795 4.4569E+11
1591978.96 106662590 7146393551 4.7881E+11
1645404.16 111887483 7608348836 5.1737E+11
1700391.15 117326989 8095562265 5.5859E+11
1761354 123294780 8630634600 6.0414E+11
1818339.11 129102077 9166247454 6.508E+11
1868313.6 134518579 9685337702 6.9734E+11
1907941.87 139279757 1.0167E+10 7.4222E+11
1968622 145678028 1.078E+10 7.9773E+11
2052562.5 153942188 1.1546E+10 8.6592E+11
2198287.84 167069876 1.2697E+10 9.65E+11
2335551.68 179837479 1.3847E+10 1.0663E+12
2790974.16 217695984 1.698E+10 1.3245E+12
3417446.78 269978296 2.1328E+10 1.6849E+12
4014336 321146880 2.5692E+10 2.0553E+12
4112369.19 333101904 2.6981E+10 2.1855E+12
4160340.52 341147923 2.7974E+10 2.2939E+12
4212692.39 349653468 2.9021E+10 2.4088E+12
4263235.2 358111757 3.0081E+10 2.5268E+12
4363683.25 370913076 3.1528E+10 2.6798E+12
4460453.64 383599013 3.299E+10 2.8371E+12
4580531.73 398506261 3.467E+10 3.0163E+12
4834888.96 425470228 3.7441E+10 3.2948E+12
4992843.93 444363110 3.9548E+10 3.5198E+12
5255361 472982490 4.2568E+10 3.8312E+12
5445916.84 495578432 4.5098E+10 4.1039E+12
5766692.48 530535708 4.8809E+10 4.4905E+12
5984156.61 556526565 5.1757E+10 4.8134E+12
6170355.52 580013419 5.4521E+10 5.125E+12
6280768.25 596672984 5.6684E+10 5.385E+12
6472212.48 621332398 5.9648E+10 5.7262E+12
6485905.97 629132879 6.1026E+10 5.9195E+12
6565486.48 643417675 6.3055E+10 6.1794E+12
6704374.05 663733031 6.571E+10 6.5052E+12
6820000 682000000 6.82E+10 6.82E+12
6928621.21 699790742 7.0679E+10 7.1386E+12
6997834.44 713779113 7.2805E+10 7.4262E+12
7096466.19 730936018 7.5286E+10 7.7545E+12
7187989.12 747550868 7.7745E+10 8.0855E+12
7322033.25 768813491 8.0725E+10 8.4762E+12
7355422.68 779674804 8.2646E+10 8.7604E+12
7344304.52 785840584 8.4085E+10 8.9971E+12
7475224.32 807324227 8.7191E+10 9.4166E+12
7743916.99 844086952 9.2005E+10 1.0029E+13
7976441 877408510 9.6515E+10 1.0617E+13
8147630.88 904387028 1.0039E+11 1.1143E+13
8309521.92 930666455 1.0423E+11 1.1674E+13
8508750.84 961488845 1.0865E+11 1.2277E+13
8652216.96 986352733 1.1244E+11 1.2819E+13
8841706 1016796190 1.1693E+11 1.3447E+13
8959543.04 1039306993 1.2056E+11 1.3985E+13
9110850.84 1065969548 1.2472E+11 1.4592E+13
9243308.16 1090710363 1.287E+11 1.5187E+13
9391858.42 1117631152 1.33E+11 1.5827E+13
9559296 1147115520 1.3765E+11 1.6518E+13
331945759 3.1775E+10 3.1722E+12 3.2559E+14

t(n-q-1)=t114 1.984
o de quinto grado
 Variable
Actual
Fits

C urv e Parameters
ntercept 270.377
A sy mptote 277.608
A sy m. Rate 1.030

Accuracy Measures
MA PE 41
MA D 258
MSD 1251519
 3∑ ▒ 〖𝑡 3 〗

〖𝑡 3 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

〖𝑡 5 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗
〖𝑡 3 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

b2∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 4 〗

〖𝑡 5 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 6 〗

𝑡 6 〗 + b3∑▒ 〖𝑡 7 〗

x² + 5.782947 x

nC
mial (Column C)

Tt

1 3 12 0

At
 At

1 3 12 0
xt = precio mensual por millar del Ladrillo REX en Lima Metropolitana durante los años 2001 y 2010.
t = mes

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

ENERO 311.79 288.85 287.64 279.22 292.90 345.64
FEBRERO 311.79 290.07 286.27 279.22 294.06 347.14
MARZO 311.79 293.28 288.41 279.22 305.22 350.95
ABRIL 311.79 296.43 291.49 283.22 305.81 352.51
MAYO 311.79 296.05 291.95 281.16 308.81 356.76
JUNIO 309.05 289.75 287.67 281.16 312.11 355.89
JULIO 309.05 289.10 288.35 283.04 320.41 354.64
AGOSTO 299.12 290.47 284.13 279.04 325.12 355.84
SEPTIEMBRE 310.80 288.07 286.64 281.04 326.07 357.15
OCTUBRE 310.34 287.92 286.34 283.08 332.75 359.46
NOVIEMBRE 288.85 287.92 289.39 291.15 339.07 360.71
DICIEMBRE 288.85 287.92 283.01 293.23 341.89 360.40
SUMA 3675.01 3485.83 3451.29 3393.78 3804.22 4257.09

MODELO DE DESCOMPOSICIÓN

FASE I: IDENTIFICACIÓN

t Xt
Jan-01 311.79
Gráfica de la serie Xt
800
Feb-01 311.79
Mar-01 311.79 700
Apr-01 311.79 600
May-01 311.79 500
Jun-01 309.05 400
Jul-01 309.05
300
Aug-01 299.12
200
Sep-01 310.8
Oct-01 310.34 100
Nov-01 288.85 0
Dec-01 288.85 1 7 1 3 1 9 25 3 1 3 7 43 4 9 55 61 6 7 7 3 79 85
Jan-02 288.85
Feb-02 290.07
Mar-02 293.28
Apr-02 296.43
May-02 296.05
Jun-02 289.75
Jul-02 289.1
Aug-02 290.47
Sep-02 288.07
Oct-02 287.92
Nov-02 287.92
Dec-02 287.92
Jan-03 287.64
Feb-03 286.27
Mar-03 288.41
Apr-03 291.49
May-03 291.95
Jun-03 287.67
Jul-03 288.35
Aug-03 284.13
Sep-03 286.64
Oct-03 286.34
Nov-03 289.39
Dec-03 283.01
Jan-04 279.22
Feb-04 279.22
Mar-04 279.22
Apr-04 283.22
May-04 281.16
Jun-04 281.16
Jul-04 283.04
Aug-04 279.04
Sep-04 281.04
Oct-04 283.08
Nov-04 291.15
Dec-04 293.23
Jan-05 292.9
Feb-05 294.06
Mar-05 305.22
Apr-05 305.81
May-05 308.81
Jun-05 312.11
Jul-05 320.41
Aug-05 325.12
Sep-05 326.07
Oct-05 332.75
Nov-05 339.07
Dec-05 341.89
Jan-06 345.64
Feb-06 347.14
Mar-06 350.95
Apr-06 352.51
May-06 356.76
Jun-06 355.89
Jul-06 354.64
Aug-06 355.84
Sep-06 357.15
Oct-06 359.46
Nov-06 360.71
Dec-06 360.4
Jan-07 358.03
Feb-07 359.5
Mar-07 364.9
Apr-07 380.59
May-07 393.92
Jun-07 458.74
Jul-07 547.58
Aug-07 627.24
Sep-07 626.79
Oct-07 618.73
Nov-07 611.51
Dec-07 604.2
Jan-08 603.97
Feb-08 603.09
Mar-08 605.17
Apr-08 624.34
May-08 630.33
Jun-08 648.81
Jul-08 657.64
Aug-08 681.32
Sep-08 691.89
Oct-08 698.32
Nov-08 695.93
Dec-08 702.28
Jan-09 689.33
Feb-09 683.62
Mar-09 684.05
Apr-09 682
May-09 679.21
Jun-09 672.61
Jul-09 668.91
Aug-09 664.57
Sep-09 664.13
Oct-09 654.63
Nov-09 641.48
Dec-09 640.88
Jan-10 651.79
Feb-10 659.21
Mar-10 661.28
Apr-10 662.43
May-10 666.36
Jun-10 665.76
Jul-10 668.56
Aug-10 665.84
Sep-10 665.56
Oct-10 663.84
Nov-10 663.22
Dec-10 663.84
rante los años 2001 y 2010.

2007 2008 2009 2010

358.03 603.97 689.33 651.79
359.50 603.09 683.62 659.21
364.90 605.17 684.05 661.28
380.59 624.34 682.00 662.43
393.92 630.33 679.21 666.36
458.74 648.81 672.61 665.76
547.58 657.64 668.91 668.56
627.24 681.32 664.57 665.84
626.79 691.89 664.13 665.56
618.73 698.32 654.63 663.84
611.51 695.93 641.48 663.22
604.20 702.28 640.88 663.84
5951.73 7843.09 8025.42 7957.69

Por observación decimos que la serie tiene 2

áfica de la serie Xt componentes, siendo éstas componente de
tendencia y aleatoriedad,por lo que se aplicará
los métodos del análisis exploratorio para
confirmar la existencia de la componente de
tendencia(T) .

3 7 43 4 9 55 61 6 7 7 3 79 85 9 1 97 10 3 10 9 1 1 5
 Suavización Exponencial

Por obs de la serie original, podemos identificar que su nivel es variable y su dispersión es casi constante
por lo que el modelo con el que se analizará la serie es xt = b 0 + b1i + b2i2 + A(t), donde T(t)=b0+b1+0.5b2
α= 0.97
t 0.15 St St (2) St (3) b0t b1t b2t
1 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79
2 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 0 0
3 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 0 0
4 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 0 0
5 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 0 0
6 309.05 309.1322 309.211934 309.289276 309.050074 -3.98311197 -2.578066
7 309.05 309.052466 309.05725 309.064211 309.049859 1.1239078727 2.34604006
8 299.12 299.417974 299.707152 299.987864 299.120329 -14.323240554 -9.12503262
9 310.8 310.458539 310.135998 309.831554 310.799178 21.05917507 19.5051921
10 310.34 310.343556 310.337329 310.322156 310.340836 -5.0537531787 -9.64235778
11 288.85 289.494807 290.120082 290.726145 288.850318 -31.503025081 -20.7078496
12 288.85 288.869344 288.906866 288.961445 288.848878 8.805407549 18.3827955
13 288.85 288.85058 288.852269 288.855544 288.850478 0.8774083958 1.71010245
14 290.07 290.033417 289.997983 289.96371 290.070013 1.8278439836 1.25161456
15 293.28 293.182603 293.087064 292.993363 293.279979 4.1686798569 1.98091537
16 296.43 296.332578 296.235213 296.137957 296.430053 3.2127285984 0.1184952
17 296.05 296.058477 296.063779 296.066005 296.050099 -1.978668025 -3.31602711
18 289.75 289.939254 290.12299 290.301281 289.750073 -9.1393054351 -5.86883689
19 289.1 289.125178 289.155112 289.189497 289.099694 1.6464030832 4.79684615
20 290.47 290.429655 290.391419 290.355361 290.47007 2.5160163381 2.34809048
21 288.07 288.14079 288.208309 288.27272 288.070163 -4.0083017541 -3.3489748
22 287.92 287.926624 287.935074 287.945204 287.919852 0.7128924759 1.80940694
23 287.92 287.920199 287.920645 287.921382 287.920043 0.156203295 0.31308725
24 287.92 287.920006 287.920025 287.920066 287.920008 0.0120252627 0.02320203
25 287.64 287.6484 287.656549 287.664454 287.640008 -0.4063535672 -0.2621603
26 286.27 286.311352 286.351708 286.39109 286.270023 -1.8766711568 -1.04922962
27 288.41 288.347041 288.287181 288.230298 288.409878 3.6842887202 3.20883679
28 291.49 291.395711 291.302455 291.210291 291.490058 3.6562313154 1.17606715
29 291.95 291.933371 291.914444 291.893319 291.950102 -0.6785737013 -2.36800414
30 287.67 287.797901 287.921397 288.040555 287.670066 -6.5415073719 -4.67607512
31 288.35 288.333437 288.321076 288.31266 288.349744 2.7172596437 4.2524426
32 284.13 284.256103 284.378052 284.496091 284.130243 -6.2402686936 -4.2151287
33 286.64 286.568483 286.50277 286.44257 286.639709 5.3627196008 5.94128757
34 286.34 286.346854 286.351532 286.354263 286.340231 -1.2944942195 -2.09771746
35 289.39 289.298706 289.21029 289.12461 289.389855 4.464908965 2.94706514
36 283.01 283.198661 283.37901 283.551378 283.010331 -10.51916703 -8.60162689
37 279.22 279.33936 279.460549 279.583274 279.219706 -3.0166105833 1.65477087
38 279.22 279.223581 279.23069 279.241267 279.21994 1.8074836761 3.73824434
39 279.22 279.220107 279.220425 279.22105 279.220098 0.1705343619 0.33174187
40 283.22 283.100003 282.983616 282.870739 283.219901 5.8251484382 3.78340819
41 281.16 281.2182 281.271163 281.31915 281.160262 -4.6348207113 -5.36214203
42 281.16 281.161746 281.165028 281.169652 281.159805 0.6816388896 1.44545497
43 283.04 282.983652 282.929094 282.87631 283.039987 2.806956935 1.91356288
44 279.04 279.15831 279.271433 279.379579 279.040209 -6.581214341 -5.36431885
45 281.04 280.983549 280.932186 280.885608 281.039698 4.4715813298 5.15748371
46 283.08 283.017106 282.954559 282.89249 283.080133 2.3037810063 0.51634486
47 291.15 290.906013 290.66747 290.43422 291.149851 10.822695963 5.70602799
48 293.23 293.16028 293.085496 293.005958 293.230311 -0.3743918243 -5.12370336
49 292.9 292.907808 292.913139 292.915924 292.899932 -1.6678886062 -2.74409464
50 294.06 294.025434 293.992065 293.959781 294.059888 1.7160098511 1.16896054
51 305.22 304.884163 304.5574 304.239472 305.21976 15.754539757 9.52147716
52 305.81 305.782225 305.74548 305.7003 305.810534 -3.7668475864 -9.09161034
53 308.81 308.719167 308.629956 308.542066 308.809698 3.6603639671 1.42364764
54 312.11 312.008275 311.906925 311.80598 312.110028 3.5141547681 0.43520272
55 320.41 320.157948 319.910418 319.667284 320.409876 10.586562642 4.73957892
56 325.12 324.971138 324.819317 324.664756 325.120221 3.2998382547 -2.95240551
57 326.07 326.037034 326.000503 325.96043 326.070025 -0.898689844 -3.81628561
58 332.75 332.548611 332.352168 332.160416 332.749745 9.1071801029 5.05599076
59 339.07 338.874358 338.678693 338.483144 339.070141 6.3954888275 0.12653942
60 341.89 341.799531 341.705906 341.609223 341.890098 1.2311569536 -3.29551567
61 345.64 345.524786 345.41022 345.29619 345.639889 4.0194522249 0.57823545
62 347.14 347.091544 347.041104 346.988756 347.140076 0.5103193796 -2.0560825
63 350.95 350.834246 350.720452 350.608501 350.949884 4.7621440194 1.98678136
64 352.51 352.459727 352.407549 352.353578 352.510112 0.6338041297 -1.93264764
65 356.76 356.630992 356.504289 356.379767 356.759877 5.3783956864 2.35166289
66 355.89 355.91223 355.929992 355.943485 355.890199 -3.0815621915 -4.60048655
67 354.64 354.678167 354.715722 354.752555 354.63989 -1.6382730529 -0.77798746
68 355.84 355.805145 355.772462 355.741865 355.839913 2.2817213348 2.24767094
69 357.15 357.109654 357.069539 357.029708 357.150056 1.4648086102 0.30776574
70 359.46 359.38949 359.319891 359.251186 359.459981 2.774920024 0.9625092
71 360.71 360.670385 360.62987 360.588509 360.710054 0.8132121254 -0.91149845
72 360.4 360.408112 360.414764 360.419977 360.400018 -1.0611795729 -1.55242933
73 358.03 358.101343 358.170746 358.238223 358.030015 -3.3751579714 -2.07548561
74 359.5 359.45804 359.419421 359.383986 359.499842 3.1182594341 3.43042924
75 364.9 364.736741 364.577222 364.421425 364.899983 7.3443605987 4.01203753
76 380.59 380.114402 379.648287 379.191481 380.589827 20.539391469 10.0336262
77 393.92 393.505832 393.090106 392.673147 393.920326 12.717929442 -1.32823752
78 458.74 456.782975 454.872189 453.006218 458.738576 88.105810526 48.3004172
79 547.58 544.856089 542.156572 539.482062 547.580613 101.97284877 26.9513127
80 627.24 624.768483 622.290125 619.805883 627.240955 76.677004615 -6.34229085
 81 626.79 626.729354 626.596178 626.392469 626.791999 -37.123632195 -76.0177696
82 618.73 618.969981 619.198767 619.414578 618.72822 -15.018689098 -13.9839964
83 611.51 611.733799 611.957748 612.181453 611.509606 -7.3844222927 -0.26312694
84 604.2 604.426014 604.651966 604.877851 604.199995 -7.3453810888 -0.07265811
85 603.97 603.98368 604.003729 604.029953 603.969807 2.9789372475 6.65536564
86 603.09 603.11681 603.143418 603.170014 603.090191 -0.8670761132 -0.01241302
87 605.17 605.108404 605.049455 604.993072 605.16992 3.413493334 2.76597538
88 624.34 623.763052 623.201644 622.655387 624.339611 27.051566422 16.329132
89 630.33 630.132992 629.925051 629.706961 630.330782 0.7617017549 -10.9389086
90 648.81 648.24969 647.699951 647.160161 648.809378 23.619111708 10.7233253
91 657.64 657.358291 657.06854 656.771289 657.64054 4.9624775663 -8.08460979
92 681.32 680.601149 679.89517 679.201454 681.319389 30.02907846 13.2155018
93 691.89 691.551334 691.20165 690.841644 691.890698 5.244070273 -11.1236859
94 698.32 698.11694 697.909481 697.697446 698.319822 4.0196967395 -4.93235787
95 695.93 695.995608 696.053024 696.102357 695.930108 -6.6046383181 -8.71225944
96 702.28 702.091468 701.910315 701.736076 702.279536 9.9188374601 7.45237968
97 689.33 689.712844 690.078768 690.428487 689.330715 -21.350116673 -17.4652659
98 683.62 683.802785 683.991065 684.184187 683.619349 -3.2428658169 5.21988541
99 684.05 684.042584 684.041038 684.045332 684.049969 3.48035204 6.29427312
100 682 682.061278 682.12067 682.17841 682.000232 -2.8912920819 -1.78151267
101 679.21 679.295538 679.380292 679.464236 679.209974 -3.2164114152 -0.87345574
102 672.61 672.810566 673.007658 673.201355 672.61008 -8.3664950442 -3.65845999
103 668.91 669.027017 669.146436 669.268084 668.909826 -2.5523176581 2.40165883
104 664.57 664.703711 664.836992 664.969925 664.57008 -4.5144579156 -0.37617245
105 664.13 664.147211 664.167905 664.191965 664.129885 1.3087562799 3.62907122
106 654.63 654.915516 655.193088 655.463054 654.630339 -13.442103861 -8.19685708
107 641.48 641.883065 642.282366 642.677787 641.479885 -15.189808705 -4.18181079
108 640.88 640.910092 640.95126 641.003056 640.879551 4.9114120583 11.4541615
109 651.79 651.463603 651.148232 650.843877 651.789988 16.667050487 11.8717031
110 659.21 658.977608 658.742727 658.505761 659.210405 6.3702461915 -2.24632686
111 661.28 661.210928 661.136882 661.057949 661.280087 -0.476756786 -5.26772875
112 662.43 662.393428 662.355731 662.316798 662.429887 0.492180085 -1.33333797
113 666.36 666.241003 666.124445 666.010215 666.35989 5.1365889876 2.5098638
114 665.76 665.77443 665.784931 665.791689 665.760188 -2.5374618248 -4.03293147
115 668.56 668.476433 668.395688 668.317568 668.559803 4.1527168344 2.82928353
116 665.84 665.919093 665.993391 666.063116 665.840223 -5.0881528102 -4.9281758
117 665.56 665.570773 665.583451 665.597841 665.559806 0.5953196602 1.84451222
118 663.84 663.891923 663.942669 663.992324 663.840087 -2.2814338546 -1.17550743
119 663.22 663.240158 663.261233 663.283166 663.21994 -0.1778118001 0.92408109
120 663.84 663.822005 663.805182 663.789521 663.839991 1.226891843 1.25310697
 Tt Xt(1) ep2 At 800

311.79 1 0 700
311.79 311.79 0 1 0
600
311.79 311.79 0 1 0
311.79 311.79 0 1 0 500
303.777929 311.79 7.5076 1.01735502 5.27207099
311.346787 303.777929 27.794732523 0.99262306 -2.2967866 400
280.234572 311.346787 149.49431058 1.0673915 18.8854277
341.61095 280.234572 934.24536982 0.9098069 -30.8109496 300
300.465904 341.61095 977.87228722 1.03286262 9.87409565
246.993368 300.465904 134.92923386 1.1694646 41.8566323 200
306.845684 246.993368 1751.9776712 0.94135266 -17.9956836
100
290.582938 306.845684 323.84462744 0.99403634 -1.73293806
292.523664 290.582938 0.2631054522 0.99161208 -2.45366442 0
298.439117 292.523664 0.5720435086 0.982713 -5.15911661 1 8 15 2 2 29 36 43 50 57 6 4 7 1 7 8 8 5 9 2 9 9 10 6
299.70203 298.439117 4.0365495669 0.98908239 -3.27202964
292.413417 299.70203 13.337320496 1.01243644 3.63658302
277.676349 292.413417 7.0937899918 1.04348102 12.0736506 100
293.14452 277.676349 130.49979363 0.98620298 -4.0445201
294.160132 293.14452 7.1530577527 0.98745536 -3.69013185
50
282.387374 294.160132 37.089705923 1.02012351 5.68262567
289.537448 282.387374 30.609946821 0.99441368 -1.61744792
288.23279 289.537448 2.6161377761 0.9989148 -0.31278986 0
287.943635 288.23279 0.097837497 0.99991792 -0.0236346 1 8 15 2 2 2 9 3 6 43 50 57 6 4 7 1 78 85 92 99 106 113
287.102574 287.943635 0.0921939686 1.00187189 0.53742553
-50
283.868737 287.102574 0.6931802517 1.00845906 2.40126338
293.698585 283.868737 20.623073092 0.98199315 -5.28858493
295.734323 293.698585 4.8778473835 0.98564819 -4.24432322 -100
290.087526 295.734323 14.321102265 1.00642039 1.86247407
278.790521 290.087526 5.8444316061 1.03185 8.8794787
293.193225 278.790521 91.383632969 0.98348112 -4.84322473 -150
275.78241 293.193225 82.142042577 1.03026875 8.34759006
294.973072 275.78241 117.88726187 0.97174972 -8.33307194
283.996878 294.973072 74.529931069 1.00825052 2.34312226
295.328297 283.996878 29.085767716 0.97989256 -5.93829677
268.190351 295.328297 151.74043537 1.05525795 14.8196491
277.030481 268.190351 121.65315866 1.00790353 2.18951947
282.896546 277.030481 4.7939954969 0.98700392 -3.67654606
279.556503 282.896546 13.516990928 0.9987963 -0.33650305
290.936753 279.556503 13.421209921 0.97347618 -7.71675348
273.844371 290.936753 95.584908666 1.02671455 7.31562929
282.564171 273.844371 53.51843188 0.99503061 -1.40417103
286.803725 282.564171 0.2264132132 0.986877 -3.76372494
269.776835 286.803725 60.275425001 1.0343364 9.26316492
288.090021 269.776835 126.85888399 0.97552841 -7.05002125
285.642087 288.090021 25.100312951 0.99103043 -2.56208662
304.825561 285.642087 30.337109816 0.95513644 -13.675561
290.294067 304.825561 134.45703578 1.01011365 2.93593273
289.859996 290.294067 6.7908854184 1.01048784 3.04000421
296.360378 289.859996 17.640035361 0.9922379 -2.30037783
325.735039 296.360378 78.492904913 0.93701925 -20.5150387
297.497881 325.735039 397.00716546 1.02794009 8.31211864
313.181886 297.497881 127.96402804 0.98604042 -4.37188604
315.841784 313.181886 1.1489396904 0.98818464 -3.73178449
333.366229 315.841784 20.868592943 0.96113515 -12.9562286
326.943856 333.366229 68.00028587 0.9944215 -1.82385623
323.263192 326.943856 0.7636247115 1.00868273 2.80680786
344.384921 323.263192 89.99952334 0.96621536 -11.6349209
345.5289 344.384921 28.248384004 0.98130721 -6.45889999
341.473497 345.5289 13.241593173 1.00121972 0.41650268
349.948459 341.473497 17.359744588 0.9876883 -4.30845879
346.622354 349.948459 7.8874407566 1.0014934 0.51764628
356.705419 346.622354 18.728522296 0.98386507 -5.75541869
352.177593 356.705419 17.601537949 1.00094386 0.33240722
363.314104 352.177593 20.998455929 0.98196023 -6.55410419
350.508394 363.314104 55.117322999 1.01535371 5.38160597
352.612624 350.508394 17.070167869 1.00574959 2.02737647
359.24547 352.612624 10.415958901 0.99052049 -3.40546998
358.768747 359.24547 4.3909944342 0.99548805 -1.61874715
362.716156 358.768747 0.4778305079 0.99102285 -3.25615584
361.067517 362.716156 4.0246612348 0.99900983 -0.35751668
358.562624 361.067517 0.4455785121 1.00512428 1.83737584
353.617114 358.562624 0.2836884918 1.01247928 4.41288576
364.333316 353.617114 34.608344921 0.98673381 -4.83331606
374.250363 364.333316 0.3211306891 0.97501576 -9.35036267
406.146032 374.250363 40.191001442 0.93707674 -25.5560318
405.974137 406.146032 149.4758527 0.97030812 -12.0541367
570.994595 405.974137 2784.2363278 0.80340515 -112.254595
663.029118 570.994595 548.24325732 0.82587625 -115.449118
700.746815 663.029118 1280.8609494 0.89510218 -73.5068146
551.659482 700.746815 5469.6104232 1.13619002 75.1305176
596.717533 551.659482 4498.4543307 1.03688926 22.0124674
603.993621 596.717533 218.81709213 1.01244447 7.5163795
596.818284 603.993621 0.0425924962 1.01236845 7.38171561
610.276427 596.818284 51.147036188 0.98966628 -6.306427
602.216909 610.276427 51.644733068 1.0014498 0.87309128
609.966401 602.216909 8.7207481371 0.99213661 -4.7964013
659.555743 609.966401 206.60033973 0.94660687 -35.2157432
625.62303 659.555743 854.14406627 1.00752365 4.70697006
677.790153 625.62303 537.63558047 0.95724318 -28.9801527
658.560712 677.790153 406.02865448 0.99860193 -0.92071238
717.956218 658.560712 517.98517281 0.94897151 -36.6362181
691.572926 717.956218 679.44772754 1.00045848 0.31707422
699.87334 691.572926 45.523010567 0.99778054 -1.55334014
684.96934 699.87334 15.54993146 1.01600168 10.9606596
715.924563 684.96934 299.65893472 0.98094134 -13.6445634
659.247965 715.924563 707.27080454 1.04563083 30.0820346
682.986426 659.247965 593.99607003 1.00092765 0.63357408
690.677458 682.986426 1.1311898279 0.99040441 -6.62745777
678.218183 690.677458 75.298273335 1.00557611 3.78181668
675.556835 678.218183 0.9837003183 1.00540764 3.65316534
662.414355 675.556835 8.6838344944 1.01539164 10.1956451
667.558338 662.414355 42.193405517 1.00202479 1.35166214
659.867536 667.558338 8.930163145 1.00712638 4.70246443
667.253177 659.867536 18.168602986 0.99531935 -3.12317696
637.089807 667.253177 159.34459649 1.02753174 17.540193
624.199171 637.089807 19.27379497 1.0276848 17.2808293
651.518044 624.199171 278.25006658 0.98367191 -10.6380441
674.39289 651.518044 0.0739599932 0.96648409 -22.6028901
664.457488 674.39289 230.52015061 0.9921026 -5.24748789
658.169466 664.457488 10.096429285 1.00472604 3.11053446
662.255398 658.169466 18.152153893 1.00026365 0.1746018
672.751411 662.255398 16.847755942 0.9904996 -6.3914106
661.20626 672.751411 48.879822221 1.00688702 4.55373981
674.127162 661.20626 54.077489198 0.99174167 -5.56716168
658.287982 674.127162 68.677048781 1.01147221 7.5520181
667.077381 658.287982 52.882247291 0.99772533 -1.51738142
660.970899 667.077381 10.480638479 1.00434074 2.86910091
663.504168 660.970899 5.0584549017 0.99957172 -0.28416849
665.693436 663.504168 0.1127828005 0.99721578 -1.85343589
27967.298439
 0.15
Tt

50 57 6 4 7 1 7 8 8 5 9 2 9 9 10 6 1 1 3 1 2 0

50 57 6 4 7 1 78 85 92 9 9 1 0 6 1 1 3 Column M
 t xt
1 311.79
2 311.79
3 311.79
4 311.79
5 311.79
6 309.05
7 309.05
8 299.12
9 310.8
10 310.34
11 288.85
12 288.85
13 288.85
14 290.07
15 293.28
16 296.43
17 296.05
18 289.75
19 289.1
20 290.47
21 288.07
22 287.92
23 287.92
24 287.92
25 287.64
26 286.27
27 288.41
28 291.49
29 291.95
30 287.67
31 288.35
32 284.13
33 286.64
34 286.34
35 289.39
36 283.01
37 279.22
38 279.22
39 279.22
40 283.22
41 281.16
42 281.16
43 283.04
44 279.04
45 281.04
46 283.08
47 291.15
48 293.23
49 292.9
50 294.06
51 305.22
52 305.81
53 308.81
54 312.11
55 320.41
56 325.12
57 326.07
58 332.75
59 339.07
60 341.89
61 345.64
62 347.14
63 350.95
64 352.51
65 356.76
66 355.89
67 354.64
68 355.84
69 357.15
70 359.46
71 360.71
72 360.4
73 358.03
74 359.5
75 364.9
76 380.59
77 393.92
78 458.74
79 547.58
80 627.24
81 626.79
82 618.73
83 611.51
84 604.2
85 603.97
86 603.09
87 605.17
 88 624.34
89 630.33
90 648.81
91 657.64
92 681.32
93 691.89
94 698.32
95 695.93
96 702.28
97 689.33
98 683.62
99 684.05
100 682
101 679.21
102 672.61
103 668.91
104 664.57
105 664.13
106 654.63
107 641.48
108 640.88
109 651.79
110 659.21
111 661.28
112 662.43
113 666.36
114 665.76
115 668.56
116 665.84
117 665.56
118 663.84
119 663.22
120 663.84

fase II obtencion de componentes

Por Funcion de Tiempo

Yt = b0 + b1t + b2t2 + b3t3 + b4t4

 t Yt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7
1 3675.01 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 3485.83 4 8 16 32 64 128
3 3451.29 9 27 81 243 729 2187
4 3393.78 16 64 256 1024 4096 16384
5 3804.22 25 125 625 3125 15625 78125
6 4257.09 36 216 1296 7776 46656 279936
7 5951.73 49 343 2401 16807 117649 823543
8 7843.09 64 512 4096 32768 262144 2097152
9 8025.42 81 729 6561 59049 531441 4782969
10 7957.69 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000
∑= 55 51845.15 385 3025 25333 220825 1978405 18080425
t Yt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7

b0 10 55 385 3025 25333 51845.15

b1 55 385 3025 25333 220825 335351.81
b2 = 385 3025 25333 220825 1978405 2590761.71
b3 3025 25333 220825 1978405 18080425 21602334
b4 25333 220825 1978405 18080425 167731333 187749718

b0 10.916667 -11.8055556 3.85416667 -0.48611111 0.02083333 51845.15

b1 -11.80556 13.8683307 -4.7275641 0.61224424 -0.0267094 335351.81
b2 = 3.8541667 -4.7275641 1.66352224 -0.22035256 0.00977321 2590761.71
b3 -0.486111 0.61224424 -0.22035256 0.02970409 -0.00133547 21602334
b4 0.0208333 -0.0267094 0.00977321 -0.00133547 6.07032E-05 187749718

b0 2507.0925
b1 1938.8278
b2 = -999.326
b3 177.31314
b4 -9.138003

Ecuacion de tendencia Anual

Yt = 2507.0925000864 + 1938.82781465165t + -999.326044575078t 2 +177.313138111261t3 + -9.13800262235418t4
Origen : 01 de Julio del 2000
Unidad de t: Año
Unidad de Yt: Numero de ladrillos

Cambio de Unidad de t de Año a mes

b0 2507.0925
b1 161.56898
b2 = -6.939764
b3 0.1026118
b4 -0.000441

Yt = 2507.0925000864 + 161.568984554304t + -6.93976419843804t 2 +0.102611769740313t3 +-0.0004406829968342

Origen : 01 de Julio del 2000
Unidad de t: mes
Unidad de Yt: Numero de ladrillos

Centrando la Ecuacion de Tendencia Mensual

Ymen 0.5 2586.1549

Ymen t = 2586.15485024248 + 161.568984554304t + -6.93976419843804t2 +0.102611769740313t3 +-0.000440682

Origen : 15 de Julio del 2000

Unidad de t: mes
Unidad de Yt: Numero de ladrillos

Por lo tanto
b0 2586.1549
b1 161.56898 6

b2 = -6.939764 5
b3 0.1026118
4
b4 -0.000441
3
t xt Tt Zt
2
6 311.79 3305.73833 0.09431781
7 311.79 3377.09038 0.09232504 1
8 311.79 3434.5629 0.09078011
9 311.79 3478.15589 0.08964233 0
1 8 15 2 2 2 9 36 43 5
10 311.79 3507.86936 0.08888301
-1
11 309.05 3523.70329 0.08770602
12 309.05 3525.6577 0.0876574 -2
13 299.12 3513.73258 0.08512885
14 310.8 3487.92793 0.08910735
15 310.34 3448.24375 0.08999944
16 288.85 3394.68005 0.08508902
17 288.85 3327.23681 0.08681378
18 288.85 3245.91405 0.0889888
19 290.07 3150.71176 0.09206491
20 293.28 3041.62994 0.09642199
21 296.43 2918.66859 0.10156343
22 296.05 2781.82772 0.10642284
23 289.75 2631.10731 0.11012474
24 289.1 2466.50738 0.11721027
25 290.47 2288.02792 0.12695212
26 288.07 2095.66893 0.13745969
27 287.92 1889.43041 0.15238455
28 287.92 1669.31237 0.1724782
29 287.92 1435.31479 0.20059711
30 287.64 1187.43769 0.24223587
31 286.27 925.681057 0.30925338
32 288.41 650.044897 0.44367705
33 291.49 360.529209 0.80850592
34 291.95 57.1339921 5.10991774
35 287.67 -260.140753 -1.10582443
36 288.35 -591.295027 -0.48765842
37 284.13 -936.328828 -0.30345109
38 286.64 -1295.24216 -0.22130225
39 286.34 -1668.03502 -0.17166306
40 289.39 -2054.7074 -0.14084244
41 283.01 -2455.25932 -0.11526685
42 279.22 -2869.69076 -0.09729968
43 279.22 -3298.00174 -0.08466339
44 279.22 -3740.19224 -0.07465392
45 283.22 -4196.26227 -0.0674934
46 281.16 -4666.21182 -0.06025444
47 281.16 -5150.04091 -0.05459374
48 283.04 -5647.74952 -0.05011554
49 279.04 -6159.33767 -0.04530357
50 281.04 -6684.80534 -0.04204161
51 283.08 -7224.15254 -0.03918522
52 291.15 -7777.37927 -0.03743549
53 293.23 -8344.48552 -0.03514057
54 292.9 -8925.47131 -0.03281619
55 294.06 -9520.33662 -0.03088756
56 305.22 -10129.0815 -0.03013304
57 305.81 -10751.7058 -0.02844293
58 308.81 -11388.2097 -0.02711664
59 312.11 -12038.5932 -0.02592579
60 320.41 -12702.8561 -0.02522346
61 325.12 -13380.9986 -0.02429714
62 326.07 -14073.0206 -0.02316987
63 332.75 -14778.9221 -0.02251517
 64 339.07 -15498.7032 -0.02187731
65 341.89 -16232.3638 -0.02106224
66 345.64 -16979.9039 -0.02035583
67 347.14 -17741.3236 -0.01956675
68 350.95 -18516.6228 -0.01895324
69 352.51 -19305.8015 -0.01825928
70 356.76 -20108.8597 -0.01774143
71 355.89 -20925.7975 -0.01700724
72 354.64 -21756.6148 -0.01630033
73 355.84 -22601.3116 -0.01574422
74 357.15 -23459.888 -0.01522386
75 359.46 -24332.3438 -0.01477293
76 360.71 -25218.6793 -0.01430329
77 360.4 -26118.8942 -0.01379844
78 358.03 -27032.9887 -0.01324419
79 359.5 -27960.9627 -0.01285721
80 364.9 -28902.8162 -0.01262507
81 380.59 -29858.5492 -0.01274643
82 393.92 -30828.1618 -0.01277793
83 458.74 -31811.6539 -0.0144205
84 547.58 -32809.0256 -0.01668992
85 627.24 -33820.2767 -0.01854627
86 626.79 -34845.4074 -0.01798774
87 618.73 -35884.4176 -0.0172423
88 611.51 -36937.3074 -0.01655535
89 604.2 -38004.0767 -0.01589829
90 603.97 -39084.7255 -0.01545284
91 603.09 -40179.2538 -0.01500999
92 605.17 -41287.6617 -0.01465741
93 624.34 -42409.9491 -0.01472155
94 630.33 -43546.116 -0.014475
95 648.81 -44696.1624 -0.01451601
96 657.64 -45860.0884 -0.01434014
97 681.32 -47037.8939 -0.01448449
98 691.89 -48229.5789 -0.01434576
99 698.32 -49435.1435 -0.01412598
100 695.93 -50654.5876 -0.01373874
101 702.28 -51887.9112 -0.01353456
102 689.33 -53135.1144 -0.01297315
103 683.62 -54396.197 -0.01256742
104 684.05 -55671.1592 -0.01228733
105 682 -56960.001 -0.01197331
106 679.21 -58262.7222 -0.01165771
107 672.61 -59579.323 -0.01128932
108 668.91 -60909.8033 -0.01098198
109 664.57 -62254.1632 -0.01067511
110 664.13 -63612.4026 -0.01044026
111 654.63 -64984.5215 -0.01007363
112 641.48 -66370.5199 -0.00966513
113 640.88 -67770.3979 -0.00945664
114 651.79 -69184.1554 -0.00942109
115 659.21 -70611.7924 -0.00933569
116 661.28 -72053.3089 -0.00917765
117 662.43 -73508.705 -0.00901159
118 666.36 -74977.9806 -0.00888741
119 665.76 -76461.1357 -0.00870717
120 668.56 -77958.1704 -0.00857588
121 665.84 -79469.0846 -0.0083786
122 665.56 -80993.8783 -0.00821741
123 663.84 -82532.5515 -0.00804337
124 663.22 -84085.1043 -0.00788749
125 663.84 -85651.5366 -0.00775047
 t8 tYt t2Yt t3Yt Tt t4Yt
1 3675.01 3675.01 3675.01 3675.01 3614.76941
256 6971.66 13943.32 27886.64 55773.28 3659.74101
6561 10353.87 31061.61 93184.83 279554.49 3376.91806
65536 13575.12 54300.48 217201.92 868807.68 3281.89921
390625 19021.1 95105.5 475527.5 2377637.5 3670.97108
1679616 25542.54 153255.24 919531.44 5517188.64 4621.10822
5764801 41662.11 291634.77 2041443.39 14290103.7 5989.97309
16777216 62744.72 501957.76 4015662.08 32125296.6 7415.91614
43046721 72228.78 650059.02 5850531.18 52654780.6 8317.9757
100000000 79576.9 795769 7957690 79576900 7895.87808
167731333 335351.81 2590761.71 21602334 187749718
t8 tYt t2Yt t3Yt t4Yt

Yt
9000
8000 f(x) = − 9.138003 x⁴ + 177.3131 x³ − 999.326 x² + 1938.828 x
7000 + 2507.092
6000 Yt
5000 Polynomial (Yt)
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1t3 + -9.13800262235418t4
13t3 +-0.00044068299683421t4

69740313t3 +-0.00044068299683421t4

2 Column E

0
1 8 15 2 2 2 9 36 43 50 57 64 7 1 7 8 85 9 2 9 9 0 6 1 3 2 0
-1 1 1 1

-2
FUNCION DE TIEMPO

t xt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12

1 311.79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 311.79 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096
3 311.79 9 27 81 243 729 2187 6561 19683 59049 2E+05 5E+05
4 311.79 16 64 256 1024 4096 16384 65536 3E+05 1E+06 4E+06 2E+07
5 311.79 25 125 625 3125 15625 78125 4E+05 2E+06 1E+07 5E+07 2E+08
6 309.05 36 216 1296 7776 46656 3E+05 2E+06 1E+07 6E+07 4E+08 2E+09
7 309.05 49 343 2401 16807 1E+05 8E+05 6E+06 4E+07 3E+08 2E+09 1E+10
8 299.12 64 512 4096 32768 3E+05 2E+06 2E+07 1E+08 1E+09 9E+09 7E+10
9 310.8 81 729 6561 59049 5E+05 5E+06 4E+07 4E+08 3E+09 3E+10 3E+11
10 310.34 100 1000 10000 1E+05 1E+06 1E+07 1E+08 1E+09 1E+10 1E+11 1E+12
11 288.85 121 1331 14641 2E+05 2E+06 2E+07 2E+08 2E+09 3E+10 3E+11 3E+12
12 288.85 144 1728 20736 2E+05 3E+06 4E+07 4E+08 5E+09 6E+10 7E+11 9E+12
13 288.85 169 2197 28561 4E+05 5E+06 6E+07 8E+08 1E+10 1E+11 2E+12 2E+13
14 290.07 196 2744 38416 5E+05 8E+06 1E+08 1E+09 2E+10 3E+11 4E+12 6E+13
15 293.28 225 3375 50625 8E+05 1E+07 2E+08 3E+09 4E+10 6E+11 9E+12 1E+14
16 296.43 256 4096 65536 1E+06 2E+07 3E+08 4E+09 7E+10 1E+12 2E+13 3E+14
17 296.05 289 4913 83521 1E+06 2E+07 4E+08 7E+09 1E+11 2E+12 3E+13 6E+14
18 289.75 324 5832 1E+05 2E+06 3E+07 6E+08 1E+10 2E+11 4E+12 6E+13 1E+15
19 289.1 361 6859 1E+05 2E+06 5E+07 9E+08 2E+10 3E+11 6E+12 1E+14 2E+15
20 290.47 400 8000 2E+05 3E+06 6E+07 1E+09 3E+10 5E+11 1E+13 2E+14 4E+15
21 288.07 441 9261 2E+05 4E+06 9E+07 2E+09 4E+10 8E+11 2E+13 4E+14 7E+15
22 287.92 484 10648 2E+05 5E+06 1E+08 2E+09 5E+10 1E+12 3E+13 6E+14 1E+16
23 287.92 529 12167 3E+05 6E+06 1E+08 3E+09 8E+10 2E+12 4E+13 1E+15 2E+16
24 287.92 576 13824 3E+05 8E+06 2E+08 5E+09 1E+11 3E+12 6E+13 2E+15 4E+16
25 287.64 625 15625 4E+05 1E+07 2E+08 6E+09 2E+11 4E+12 1E+14 2E+15 6E+16
26 286.27 676 17576 5E+05 1E+07 3E+08 8E+09 2E+11 5E+12 1E+14 4E+15 1E+17
27 288.41 729 19683 5E+05 1E+07 4E+08 1E+10 3E+11 8E+12 2E+14 6E+15 2E+17
28 291.49 784 21952 6E+05 2E+07 5E+08 1E+10 4E+11 1E+13 3E+14 8E+15 2E+17
29 291.95 841 24389 7E+05 2E+07 6E+08 2E+10 5E+11 1E+13 4E+14 1E+16 4E+17
30 287.67 900 27000 8E+05 2E+07 7E+08 2E+10 7E+11 2E+13 6E+14 2E+16 5E+17
31 288.35 961 29791 9E+05 3E+07 9E+08 3E+10 9E+11 3E+13 8E+14 3E+16 8E+17
32 284.13 1024 32768 1E+06 3E+07 1E+09 3E+10 1E+12 4E+13 1E+15 4E+16 1E+18
33 286.64 1089 35937 1E+06 4E+07 1E+09 4E+10 1E+12 5E+13 2E+15 5E+16 2E+18
34 286.34 1156 39304 1E+06 5E+07 2E+09 5E+10 2E+12 6E+13 2E+15 7E+16 2E+18
35 289.39 1225 42875 2E+06 5E+07 2E+09 6E+10 2E+12 8E+13 3E+15 1E+17 3E+18
36 283.01 1296 46656 2E+06 6E+07 2E+09 8E+10 3E+12 1E+14 4E+15 1E+17 5E+18
37 279.22 1369 50653 2E+06 7E+07 3E+09 9E+10 4E+12 1E+14 5E+15 2E+17 7E+18
38 279.22 1444 54872 2E+06 8E+07 3E+09 1E+11 4E+12 2E+14 6E+15 2E+17 9E+18
39 279.22 1521 59319 2E+06 9E+07 4E+09 1E+11 5E+12 2E+14 8E+15 3E+17 1E+19
40 283.22 1600 64000 3E+06 1E+08 4E+09 2E+11 7E+12 3E+14 1E+16 4E+17 2E+19
41 281.16 1681 68921 3E+06 1E+08 5E+09 2E+11 8E+12 3E+14 1E+16 6E+17 2E+19
42 281.16 1764 74088 3E+06 1E+08 5E+09 2E+11 1E+13 4E+14 2E+16 7E+17 3E+19
43 283.04 1849 79507 3E+06 1E+08 6E+09 3E+11 1E+13 5E+14 2E+16 9E+17 4E+19
44 279.04 1936 85184 4E+06 2E+08 7E+09 3E+11 1E+13 6E+14 3E+16 1E+18 5E+19
45 281.04 2025 91125 4E+06 2E+08 8E+09 4E+11 2E+13 8E+14 3E+16 2E+18 7E+19
46 283.08 2116 97336 4E+06 2E+08 9E+09 4E+11 2E+13 9E+14 4E+16 2E+18 9E+19
47 291.15 2209 1E+05 5E+06 2E+08 1E+10 5E+11 2E+13 1E+15 5E+16 2E+18 1E+20
48 293.23 2304 1E+05 5E+06 3E+08 1E+10 6E+11 3E+13 1E+15 6E+16 3E+18 1E+20
49 292.9 2401 1E+05 6E+06 3E+08 1E+10 7E+11 3E+13 2E+15 8E+16 4E+18 2E+20
50 294.06 2500 1E+05 6E+06 3E+08 2E+10 8E+11 4E+13 2E+15 1E+17 5E+18 2E+20
51 305.22 2601 1E+05 7E+06 3E+08 2E+10 9E+11 5E+13 2E+15 1E+17 6E+18 3E+20
52 305.81 2704 1E+05 7E+06 4E+08 2E+10 1E+12 5E+13 3E+15 1E+17 8E+18 4E+20
53 308.81 2809 1E+05 8E+06 4E+08 2E+10 1E+12 6E+13 3E+15 2E+17 9E+18 5E+20
54 312.11 2916 2E+05 9E+06 5E+08 2E+10 1E+12 7E+13 4E+15 2E+17 1E+19 6E+20
55 320.41 3025 2E+05 9E+06 5E+08 3E+10 2E+12 8E+13 5E+15 3E+17 1E+19 8E+20
56 325.12 3136 2E+05 1E+07 6E+08 3E+10 2E+12 1E+14 5E+15 3E+17 2E+19 1E+21
57 326.07 3249 2E+05 1E+07 6E+08 3E+10 2E+12 1E+14 6E+15 4E+17 2E+19 1E+21
58 332.75 3364 2E+05 1E+07 7E+08 4E+10 2E+12 1E+14 7E+15 4E+17 2E+19 1E+21
59 339.07 3481 2E+05 1E+07 7E+08 4E+10 2E+12 1E+14 9E+15 5E+17 3E+19 2E+21
60 341.89 3600 2E+05 1E+07 8E+08 5E+10 3E+12 2E+14 1E+16 6E+17 4E+19 2E+21
61 345.64 3721 2E+05 1E+07 8E+08 5E+10 3E+12 2E+14 1E+16 7E+17 4E+19 3E+21
62 347.14 3844 2E+05 1E+07 9E+08 6E+10 4E+12 2E+14 1E+16 8E+17 5E+19 3E+21
63 350.95 3969 3E+05 2E+07 1E+09 6E+10 4E+12 2E+14 2E+16 1E+18 6E+19 4E+21
64 352.51 4096 3E+05 2E+07 1E+09 7E+10 4E+12 3E+14 2E+16 1E+18 7E+19 5E+21
65 356.76 4225 3E+05 2E+07 1E+09 8E+10 5E+12 3E+14 2E+16 1E+18 9E+19 6E+21
66 355.89 4356 3E+05 2E+07 1E+09 8E+10 5E+12 4E+14 2E+16 2E+18 1E+20 7E+21
67 354.64 4489 3E+05 2E+07 1E+09 9E+10 6E+12 4E+14 3E+16 2E+18 1E+20 8E+21
68 355.84 4624 3E+05 2E+07 1E+09 1E+11 7E+12 5E+14 3E+16 2E+18 1E+20 1E+22
69 357.15 4761 3E+05 2E+07 2E+09 1E+11 7E+12 5E+14 4E+16 2E+18 2E+20 1E+22
70 359.46 4900 3E+05 2E+07 2E+09 1E+11 8E+12 6E+14 4E+16 3E+18 2E+20 1E+22
71 360.71 5041 4E+05 3E+07 2E+09 1E+11 9E+12 6E+14 5E+16 3E+18 2E+20 2E+22
72 360.4 5184 4E+05 3E+07 2E+09 1E+11 1E+13 7E+14 5E+16 4E+18 3E+20 2E+22
73 358.03 5329 4E+05 3E+07 2E+09 2E+11 1E+13 8E+14 6E+16 4E+18 3E+20 2E+22
74 359.5 5476 4E+05 3E+07 2E+09 2E+11 1E+13 9E+14 7E+16 5E+18 4E+20 3E+22
75 364.9 5625 4E+05 3E+07 2E+09 2E+11 1E+13 1E+15 8E+16 6E+18 4E+20 3E+22
76 380.59 5776 4E+05 3E+07 3E+09 2E+11 1E+13 1E+15 8E+16 6E+18 5E+20 4E+22
77 393.92 5929 5E+05 4E+07 3E+09 2E+11 2E+13 1E+15 1E+17 7E+18 6E+20 4E+22
78 458.74 6084 5E+05 4E+07 3E+09 2E+11 2E+13 1E+15 1E+17 8E+18 7E+20 5E+22
79 547.58 6241 5E+05 4E+07 3E+09 2E+11 2E+13 2E+15 1E+17 9E+18 7E+20 6E+22
80 627.24 6400 5E+05 4E+07 3E+09 3E+11 2E+13 2E+15 1E+17 1E+19 9E+20 7E+22
81 626.79 6561 5E+05 4E+07 3E+09 3E+11 2E+13 2E+15 2E+17 1E+19 1E+21 8E+22
82 618.73 6724 6E+05 5E+07 4E+09 3E+11 2E+13 2E+15 2E+17 1E+19 1E+21 9E+22
83 611.51 6889 6E+05 5E+07 4E+09 3E+11 3E+13 2E+15 2E+17 2E+19 1E+21 1E+23
84 604.2 7056 6E+05 5E+07 4E+09 4E+11 3E+13 2E+15 2E+17 2E+19 1E+21 1E+23
85 603.97 7225 6E+05 5E+07 4E+09 4E+11 3E+13 3E+15 2E+17 2E+19 2E+21 1E+23
 86 603.09 7396 6E+05 5E+07 5E+09 4E+11 3E+13 3E+15 3E+17 2E+19 2E+21 2E+23
87 605.17 7569 7E+05 6E+07 5E+09 4E+11 4E+13 3E+15 3E+17 2E+19 2E+21 2E+23
88 624.34 7744 7E+05 6E+07 5E+09 5E+11 4E+13 4E+15 3E+17 3E+19 2E+21 2E+23
89 630.33 7921 7E+05 6E+07 6E+09 5E+11 4E+13 4E+15 4E+17 3E+19 3E+21 2E+23
90 648.81 8100 7E+05 7E+07 6E+09 5E+11 5E+13 4E+15 4E+17 3E+19 3E+21 3E+23
91 657.64 8281 8E+05 7E+07 6E+09 6E+11 5E+13 5E+15 4E+17 4E+19 4E+21 3E+23
92 681.32 8464 8E+05 7E+07 7E+09 6E+11 6E+13 5E+15 5E+17 4E+19 4E+21 4E+23
93 691.89 8649 8E+05 7E+07 7E+09 6E+11 6E+13 6E+15 5E+17 5E+19 5E+21 4E+23
94 698.32 8836 8E+05 8E+07 7E+09 7E+11 6E+13 6E+15 6E+17 5E+19 5E+21 5E+23
95 695.93 9025 9E+05 8E+07 8E+09 7E+11 7E+13 7E+15 6E+17 6E+19 6E+21 5E+23
96 702.28 9216 9E+05 8E+07 8E+09 8E+11 8E+13 7E+15 7E+17 7E+19 6E+21 6E+23
97 689.33 9409 9E+05 9E+07 9E+09 8E+11 8E+13 8E+15 8E+17 7E+19 7E+21 7E+23
98 683.62 9604 9E+05 9E+07 9E+09 9E+11 9E+13 9E+15 8E+17 8E+19 8E+21 8E+23
99 684.05 9801 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 9E+11 9E+13 9E+15 9E+17 9E+19 9E+21 9E+23
100 682 10000 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+16 1E+18 1E+20 1E+22 1E+24
101 679.21 10201 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+16 1E+18 1E+20 1E+22 1E+24
102 672.61 10404 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+16 1E+18 1E+20 1E+22 1E+24
103 668.91 10609 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+16 1E+18 1E+20 1E+22 1E+24
104 664.57 10816 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+16 1E+18 1E+20 2E+22 2E+24
105 664.13 11025 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+16 2E+18 2E+20 2E+22 2E+24
106 654.63 11236 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 2E+14 2E+16 2E+18 2E+20 2E+22 2E+24
107 641.48 11449 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 2E+12 2E+14 2E+16 2E+18 2E+20 2E+22 2E+24
108 640.88 11664 1E+06 1E+08 1E+10 2E+12 2E+14 2E+16 2E+18 2E+20 2E+22 3E+24
109 651.79 11881 1E+06 1E+08 2E+10 2E+12 2E+14 2E+16 2E+18 2E+20 3E+22 3E+24
110 659.21 12100 1E+06 1E+08 2E+10 2E+12 2E+14 2E+16 2E+18 3E+20 3E+22 3E+24
111 661.28 12321 1E+06 2E+08 2E+10 2E+12 2E+14 2E+16 3E+18 3E+20 3E+22 3E+24
112 662.43 12544 1E+06 2E+08 2E+10 2E+12 2E+14 2E+16 3E+18 3E+20 3E+22 4E+24
113 666.36 12769 1E+06 2E+08 2E+10 2E+12 2E+14 3E+16 3E+18 3E+20 4E+22 4E+24
114 665.76 12996 1E+06 2E+08 2E+10 2E+12 3E+14 3E+16 3E+18 4E+20 4E+22 5E+24
115 668.56 13225 2E+06 2E+08 2E+10 2E+12 3E+14 3E+16 4E+18 4E+20 5E+22 5E+24
116 665.84 13456 2E+06 2E+08 2E+10 2E+12 3E+14 3E+16 4E+18 4E+20 5E+22 6E+24
117 665.56 13689 2E+06 2E+08 2E+10 3E+12 3E+14 4E+16 4E+18 5E+20 6E+22 7E+24
118 663.84 13924 2E+06 2E+08 2E+10 3E+12 3E+14 4E+16 4E+18 5E+20 6E+22 7E+24
119 663.22 14161 2E+06 2E+08 2E+10 3E+12 3E+14 4E+16 5E+18 6E+20 7E+22 8E+24
120 663.84 14400 2E+06 2E+08 2E+10 3E+12 4E+14 4E+16 5E+18 6E+20 7E+22 9E+24
7260 51845.15 6E+05 5E+07 5E+09 5E+11 5E+13 6E+15 6E+17 6E+19 7E+21 8E+23 9E+25
t xt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12

b0 120 7260 6E+05 5E+07 5E+09 5E+11 5E+13 51845

b1 7260 6E+05 5E+07 5E+09 5E+11 5E+13 6E+15 4E+06
b2 583220 5E+07 5E+09 5E+11 5E+13 6E+15 6E+17 3E+08 6.605
b3 = 52707600 5E+09 5E+11 5E+13 6E+15 6E+17 6E+19 3E+10
b4 5080895996 5E+11 5E+13 6E+15 6E+17 6E+19 7E+21 3E+12
b5 5.1019E+11 5E+13 6E+15 6E+17 6E+19 7E+21 8E+23 3E+14
b6 5.2694E+13 6E+15 6E+17 6E+19 7E+21 8E+23 9E+25 3E+16

b0 0.50210233 -0.1 0.006 0 2E-06 -2E-08 4E-11 51845

b1 -0.09980638 0.025 0 5E-05 -7E-07 5E-09 -1E-11 4E+06
b2 0.00620668 0 0 -4E-06 6E-08 -4E-10 1E-12 3E+08
b3 = -0.00017162 5E-05 -4E-06 1E-07 -2E-09 1E-11 -3E-14 3E+10
b4 2.34953E-06 -7E-07 6E-08 -2E-09 3E-11 -2E-13 5E-16 3E+12
b5 -1.5597E-08 5E-09 -4E-10 1E-11 -2E-13 1E-15 -4E-18 3E+14
b6 4.00644E-11 -1E-11 1E-12 -3E-14 5E-16 -4E-18 1E-20 3E+16

b0 366.560518
b1 -20.3880502
b2 1.73022834
b3 = -0.06201369
b4 0.00102996
b5 -7.7188E-06
b6 2.12612E-08
tXt t2Xt t3Xt t4Xt t5Xt t6Xt Tt et et2 At 800
312 312 312 312 312 312 347.841705 -36.0517049 1299.72543 0.896356 700
624 1247 2494 4989 9977 ### 332.225455 -20.4354553 417.607833 0.93848919
935 2806 8418 ### ### ### 319.375619 -7.58561938 57.5416213 0.9762486 600
1247 4989 ### ### ### ### 308.978947 2.81105326 7.90202045 1.00909788 500
1559 7795 ### ### ### ### 300.744199 11.0458014 122.009729 1.03672823
400
1854 ### ### ### ### ### 294.401275 14.648725 214.585143 1.04975768
2163 ### ### ### ### ### 289.700358 19.3496421 374.408651 1.06679192 300
2393 ### ### ### ### ### 286.411068 12.7089317 161.516945 1.04437305
200
2797 ### ### ### ### ### 284.32164 26.4783597 701.103531 1.09312819
3103 ### ### ### ### ### 283.238109 27.1018907 734.512479 1.09568589 100
3177 ### ### ### ### ### 282.983516 5.8664843 34.4156381 1.02073083
0
3466 ### ### ### ### ### 283.397124 5.45287563 29.7338527 1.01924111
1 8 15 22 29 3 6
3755 ### ### ### ### ### 284.333659 4.51634101 20.3973361 1.01588395
4061 ### ### ### ### ### 285.662552 4.40744815 19.4255992 1.01542886
4399 ### ### ### ### ### 287.267209 6.01279106 36.1536563 1.020931
4743 ### ### ### ### ### 289.04429 7.38570962 54.5487066 1.02555217 150
5033 ### ### ### ### ### 290.903006 5.14699391 26.4915463 1.01769316
5216 ### ### ### ### ### 292.764427 -3.01442686 9.08676928 0.98970358
100
5493 ### ### ### ### ### 294.560811 -5.46081062 29.8204526 0.98146118
5809 ### ### ### ### ### 296.234944 -5.76494412 33.2345807 0.98053928
50
6049 ### ### ### ### ### 297.7395 -9.66949985 93.4992274 0.96752362
6334 ### ### ### ### ### 299.036408 -11.1164083 123.574534 0.9628259
6622 ### ### ### ### ### 300.096246 -12.1762456 148.260956 0.95942553 0
1 8 1 5 22 29 3 6 43 50
6910 ### ### ### ### ### 300.897636 -12.9776361 168.419038 0.95687026
7191 ### ### ### ### ### 301.426671 -13.7866709 190.072295 0.95426194 -50
7443 ### ### ### ### ### 301.676341 -15.4063413 237.355352 0.94893089
7787 ### ### ### ### ### 301.645987 -13.2359872 175.191357 0.95612079 -100
8162 ### ### ### ### ### 301.340762 -9.85076165 97.0375052 0.96731023
8467 ### ### ### ### ### 300.77111 -8.8211101 77.8119833 0.97067168 -150
8630 ### ### ### ### ### 299.952265 -12.282265 150.854034 0.9590526
8939 ### ### ### ### ### 298.903756 -10.553756 111.381767 0.96469179
9092 ### ### ### ### ### 297.648935 -13.5189353 182.76161 0.95458094
9459 ### ### ### ### ### 296.214518 -9.57451785 91.671392 0.96767708
9736 ### ### ### ### ### 294.630138 -8.29013805 68.7263888 0.97186256
### ### ### ### ### ### 292.92792 -3.53792038 12.5168806 0.98792222
### ### ### ### ### ### 291.142066 -8.13206626 66.1305016 0.97206839
### ### ### ### ### ### 289.308456 -10.0884558 101.77694 0.96512907
### ### ### ### ### ### 287.464265 -8.24426507 67.9679066 0.97132073
### ### ### ### ### ### 285.647599 -6.42759854 41.314023 0.97749815
### ### ### ### ### ### 283.897137 -0.67713687 0.45851434 0.99761485
### ### ### ### ### ### 282.2518 -1.09180004 1.19202734 0.99613182
### ### ### ### ### ### 280.750426 0.40957424 0.16775106 1.00145886
### ### ### ### ### ### 279.431463 3.60853683 13.021538 1.01291385
### ### ### ### ### ### 278.332682 0.70731811 0.50029891 1.00254127
### ### ### ### ### ### 277.490896 3.54910365 12.5961367 1.01278998
### ### ### ### ### ### 276.941705 6.13829457 37.6786603 1.02216457
### ### ### ### ### ### 276.719247 14.4307526 208.24662 1.05214944
### ### ### ### ### ### 276.85597 16.3740297 268.108849 1.05914277
### ### ### ### ### ### 277.382417 15.5175828 240.795375 1.05594292
### ### ### ### ### ### 278.327028 15.7329724 247.526421 1.05652693
### ### ### ### ### ### 279.715953 25.504047 650.456416 1.09117838
### ### ### ### ### ### 281.572889 24.2371112 587.437561 1.08607757
### ### ### ### ### ### 283.918921 24.891079 619.565813 1.08766967
### ### ### ### ### ### 286.772388 25.3376116 641.99456 1.08835443
### ### ### ### ### ### 290.14876 30.2612401 915.742653 1.1042956
### ### ### ### ### ### 294.060527 31.0594729 964.690859 1.10562272
### ### ### ### ### ### 298.517113 27.5528875 759.161607 1.09229919
### ### ### ### ### ### 303.524793 29.2252069 854.112716 1.09628606
### ### ### ### ### ### 309.086639 29.9833614 899.001963 1.09700633
### ### ### ### ### ### 315.202465 26.6875347 712.224507 1.08466791
### ### ### ### ### ### 321.868806 23.771194 565.069662 1.07385367
### ### ### ### ### ### 329.078894 18.0611059 326.203548 1.05488382
### ### ### ### ### ### 336.822663 14.1273368 199.581644 1.04194295
### ### ### ### ### ### 345.086763 7.42323685 55.1044453 1.02151122
### ### ### ### ### ### 353.85459 2.90541028 8.44140891 1.00821075
### ### ### ### ### ### 363.106331 -7.21633084 52.0754308 0.98012612
### ### ### ### ### ### 372.819028 -18.1790276 330.477045 0.951239
### ### ### ### ### ### 382.966651 -27.1266507 735.85518 0.92916707
### ### ### ### ### ### 393.520192 -36.3701922 1322.79088 0.90757732
### ### ### ### ### ### 404.447772 -44.9877724 2023.89966 0.88876741
### ### ### ### ### ### 415.714762 -55.0047624 3025.52389 0.86768629
### ### ### ### ### ### 427.283922 -66.8839217 4473.45898 0.84346726
### ### ### ### ### ### 439.115551 -81.085551 6574.86658 0.81534348
### ### ### ### ### ### 451.167661 -91.6676607 8402.96002 0.7968213
### ### ### ### ### ### 463.396154 -98.4961545 9701.49244 0.78744719
### ### ### ### ### ### 475.755028 -95.1650278 9056.38252 0.79997053
### ### ### ### ### ### 488.196583 -94.2765827 8888.07404 0.80688807
### ### ### ### ### ### 500.671657 -41.9316567 1758.26383 0.91624919
### ### ### ### ### ### 513.129868 34.4501318 1186.81158 1.06713726
### ### ### ### ### ### 525.519876 101.720124 10346.9836 1.19356095
### ### ### ### ### ### 537.789655 89.0003448 7921.06138 1.16549285
### ### ### ### ### ### 549.886788 68.8432123 4739.38788 1.12519525
### ### ### ### ### ### 561.758768 49.7512316 2475.18504 1.08856334
### ### ### ### ### ### 573.353326 30.8466736 951.517272 1.05380046
### ### ### ### ### ### 584.618762 19.3512384 374.470426 1.03310061
 ### ### ### ### ### ### 595.504297 7.58570296 57.5428893 1.01273828
### ### ### ### ### ### 605.960446 -0.79044567 0.62480436 0.99869555
### ### ### ### ### ### 615.939393 8.40060666 70.5701923 1.01363869
### ### ### ### ### ### 625.395396 4.93460352 24.3503119 1.00789037
### ### ### ### ### ### 634.285195 14.5248046 210.969949 1.02289949
### ### ### ### ### ### 642.568443 15.0715573 227.151839 1.02345518
### ### ### ### ### ### 650.208147 31.1118528 967.947382 1.04784907
### ### ### ### ### ### 657.171133 34.7188669 1205.39972 1.05283079
### ### ### ### ### ### 663.428514 34.8914859 1217.41579 1.05259268
### ### ### ### ### ### 668.956183 26.9738165 727.586779 1.04032225
### ### ### ### ### ### 673.735319 28.5446809 814.79881 1.0423678
### ### ### ### ### ### 677.752904 11.5770964 134.029162 1.01708159
### ### ### ### ### ### 681.00226 2.61773984 6.85256188 1.00384395
### ### ### ### ### ### 683.483604 0.56639643 0.32080492 1.00082869
### ### ### ### ### ### 685.204606 -3.2046063 10.2695015 0.99532314
### ### ### ### ### ### 686.18098 -6.97098024 48.5945655 0.9898409
### ### ### ### ### ### 686.437074 -13.8270736 191.187963 0.97985675
### ### ### ### ### ### 686.006483 -17.0964829 292.289728 0.97507825
### ### ### ### ### ### 684.932681 -20.362681 414.638776 0.97027054
### ### ### ### ### ### 683.269659 -19.1396592 366.326553 0.97198813
### ### ### ### ### ### 681.082586 -26.4525859 699.739301 0.96116097
### ### ### ### ### ### 678.44848 -36.96848 1366.66852 0.94551026
### ### ### ### ### ### 675.456899 -34.5768995 1195.56198 0.94880961
### ### ### ### ### ### 672.210645 -20.4206454 417.002757 0.96962166
### ### ### ### ### ### 668.826481 -9.61648134 92.4767133 0.98562186
### ### ### ### ### ### 665.435868 -4.15586831 17.2712415 0.99375467
### ### ### ### ### ### 662.185714 0.24428562 0.05967546 1.00036891
### ### ### ### ### ### 659.23914 7.12085988 50.7066454 1.01080163
### ### ### ### ### ### 656.776259 8.98374083 80.7075993 1.01367854
### ### ### ### ### ### 654.994974 13.5650258 184.009926 1.02071012
### ### ### ### ### ### 654.111788 11.7282121 137.550958 1.01792998
### ### ### ### ### ### 654.36263 11.19737 125.381094 1.01711187
### ### ### ### ### ### 656.003699 7.83630149 61.4076211 1.01194551
### ### ### ### ### ### 659.312317 3.90768289 15.2699856 1.00592691
### ### ### ### ### ### 664.587808 -0.74780769 0.55921635 0.99887478
### ### ### ### ### ### 8224.44811 112154.406 6.30378468
tXt t2Xt t3Xt t4Xt t5Xt t6Xt #VALUE!
 800

700

600

500

400
xt
300 Tt

200

100

0
1 8 15 22 29 3 6 43 50 5 7 64 7 1 7 8 85 9 2 99 0 6 1 3 2 0
1 1 1

150

100

50

0 Column V
1 8 1 5 22 29 3 6 43 50 57 6 4 71 78 85 9 2 99 0 6 1 3 2 0
1 1 1
-50

-100

-150
FUNCION DE TIEMPO

2 3 4
t xt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12 t13 t14 t15 t16 tXt t Xt t Xt t Xt
1 311.79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 312 312 312 312
2 311.79 4 8 16 32 64################## 8192######### 624 ### ### ###
3 311.79 9 27 81######################## 2E+06######### 935 ### ### ###
4 311.79 16 64########################### 7E+07######### ### ### ### ###
5 311.79 25############################## 1E+09######### ### ### ### ###
6 309.05 36############################## 1E+10######### ### ### ### ###
7 309.05 49############################## 1E+11######### ### ### ### ###
8 299.12 64############################## 5E+11######### ### ### ### ###
9 310.8 81############################## 3E+12######### ### ### ### ###
10 310.34 ################################# 1E+13######### ### ### ### ###
11 288.85 ################################# 3E+13######### ### ### ### ###
12 288.85 ################################# 1E+14######### ### ### ### ###
13 288.85 ################################# 3E+14######### ### ### ### ###
14 290.07 ################################# 8E+14######### ### ### ### ###
15 293.28 ################################# 2E+15######### ### ### ### ###
16 296.43 ################################# 5E+15######### ### ### ### ###
17 296.05 ################################# 1E+16######### ### ### ### ###
18 289.75 ################################# 2E+16######### ### ### ### ###
19 289.1 ################################# 4E+16######### ### ### ### ###
20 290.47 ################################# 8E+16######### ### ### ### ###
21 288.07 ################################# 2E+17######### ### ### ### ###
22 287.92 ################################# 3E+17######### ### ### ### ###
23 287.92 ################################# 5E+17######### ### ### ### ###
24 287.92 ################################# 9E+17######### ### ### ### ###
25 287.64 ################################# 1E+18######### ### ### ### ###
26 286.27 ################################# 2E+18######### ### ### ### ###
27 288.41 ################################# 4E+18######### ### ### ### ###
28 291.49 ################################# 7E+18######### ### ### ### ###
29 291.95 ################################# 1E+19######### ### ### ### ###
30 287.67 ################################# 2E+19######### ### ### ### ###
31 288.35 ################################# 2E+19######### ### ### ### ###
32 284.13 ################################# 4E+19######### ### ### ### ###
33 286.64 ################################# 6E+19######### ### ### ### ###
34 286.34 ################################# 8E+19######### ### ### ### ###
35 289.39 ################################# 1E+20######### ### ### ### ###
36 283.01 ################################# 2E+20######### ### ### ### ###
37 279.22 ################################# 2E+20######### ### ### ### ###
38 279.22 ################################# 3E+20######### ### ### ### ###
39 279.22 ################################# 5E+20######### ### ### ### ###
40 283.22 ################################# 7E+20######### ### ### ### ###
41 281.16 ################################# 9E+20######### ### ### ### ###
42 281.16 ################################# 1E+21######### ### ### ### ###
43 283.04 ################################# 2E+21######### ### ### ### ###
44 279.04 ################################# 2E+21######### ### ### ### ###
45 281.04 ################################# 3E+21######### ### ### ### ###
46 283.08 ################################# 4E+21######### ### ### ### ###
47 291.15 ################################# 5E+21######### ### ### ### ###
48 293.23 ################################# 7E+21######### ### ### ### ###
49 292.9 ################################# 9E+21######### ### ### ### ###
50 294.06 ################################# 1E+22######### ### ### ### ###
51 305.22 ################################# 2E+22######### ### ### ### ###
52 305.81 ################################# 2E+22######### ### ### ### ###
53 308.81 ################################# 3E+22######### ### ### ### ###
54 312.11 ################################# 3E+22######### ### ### ### ###
55 320.41 ################################# 4E+22######### ### ### ### ###
56 325.12 ################################# 5E+22######### ### ### ### ###
57 326.07 ################################# 7E+22######### ### ### ### ###
58 332.75 ################################# 8E+22######### ### ### ### ###
59 339.07 ################################# 1E+23######### ### ### ### ###
60 341.89 ################################# 1E+23######### ### ### ### ###
61 345.64 ################################# 2E+23######### ### ### ### ###
62 347.14 ################################# 2E+23######### ### ### ### ###
63 350.95 ################################# 2E+23######### ### ### ### ###
64 352.51 ################################# 3E+23######### ### ### ### ###
65 356.76 ################################# 4E+23######### ### ### ### ###
66 355.89 ################################# 5E+23######### ### ### ### ###
67 354.64 ################################# 5E+23######### ### ### ### ###
68 355.84 ################################# 7E+23######### ### ### ### ###
69 357.15 ################################# 8E+23######### ### ### ### ###
70 359.46 ################################# 1E+24######### ### ### ### ###
71 360.71 ################################# 1E+24######### ### ### ### ###
72 360.4 ################################# 1E+24######### ### ### ### ###
73 358.03 ################################# 2E+24######### ### ### ### ###
74 359.5 ################################# 2E+24######### ### ### ### ###
75 364.9 ################################# 2E+24######### ### ### ### ###
76 380.59 ################################# 3E+24######### ### ### ### ###
77 393.92 ################################# 3E+24######### ### ### ### ###
78 458.74 ################################# 4E+24######### ### ### ### ###
79 547.58 ################################# 5E+24######### ### ### ### ###
80 627.24 ################################# 5E+24######### ### ### ### ###
81 626.79 ################################# 6E+24######### ### ### ### ###
82 618.73 ################################# 8E+24######### ### ### ### ###
83 611.51 ################################# 9E+24######### ### ### ### ###
84 604.2 ################################# 1E+25######### ### ### ### ###
85 603.97 ################################# 1E+25######### ### ### ### ###
 86 603.09 ################################# 1E+25######### ### ### ### ###
87 605.17 ################################# 2E+25######### ### ### ### ###
88 624.34 ################################# 2E+25######### ### ### ### ###
89 630.33 ################################# 2E+25######### ### ### ### ###
90 648.81 ################################# 3E+25######### ### ### ### ###
91 657.64 ################################# 3E+25######### ### ### ### ###
92 681.32 ################################# 3E+25######### ### ### ### ###
93 691.89 ################################# 4E+25######### ### ### ### ###
94 698.32 ################################# 4E+25######### ### ### ### ###
95 695.93 ################################# 5E+25######### ### ### ### ###
96 702.28 ################################# 6E+25######### ### ### ### ###
97 689.33 ################################# 7E+25######### ### ### ### ###
98 683.62 ################################# 8E+25######### ### ### ### ###
99 684.05 ################################# 9E+25######### ### ### ### ###
100 682 ################################# 1E+26######### ### ### ### ###
101 679.21 ################################# 1E+26######### ### ### ### ###
102 672.61 ################################# 1E+26######### ### ### ### ###
103 668.91 ################################# 1E+26######### ### ### ### ###
104 664.57 ################################# 2E+26######### ### ### ### ###
105 664.13 ################################# 2E+26######### ### ### ### ###
106 654.63 ################################# 2E+26######### ### ### ### ###
107 641.48 ################################# 2E+26######### ### ### ### ###
108 640.88 ################################# 3E+26######### ### ### ### ###
109 651.79 ################################# 3E+26######### ### ### ### ###
110 659.21 ################################# 3E+26######### ### ### ### ###
111 661.28 ################################# 4E+26######### ### ### ### ###
112 662.43 ################################# 4E+26######### ### ### ### ###
113 666.36 ################################# 5E+26######### ### ### ### ###
114 665.76 ################################# 5E+26######### ### ### ### ###
115 668.56 ################################# 6E+26######### ### ### ### ###
116 665.84 ################################# 7E+26######### ### ### ### ###
117 665.56 ################################# 8E+26######### ### ### ### ###
118 663.84 ################################# 9E+26######### ### ### ### ###
119 663.22 ################################# 1E+27######### ### ### ### ###
120 663.84 ################################# 1E+27######### ### ### ### ###
7260 51845.15 ################################# 1E+28######### ### ### ### ###
2 3 4
t xt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12 t13 t14 t15 t16 tXt t Xt t Xt t Xt

b0 120 ######################## ###

b1 7260 ######################## ###
b2 583220 ######################## ### 1.192
b3 = 52707600 ######################## ###
b4 5080895996 ######################## ###
b5 5.1019E+11 ######################## ###
b6 5.2694E+13 ######################## ###
b7 5.5557E+15 ######################## ###
b8 5.9505E+17 ######################## ###

b0 0.95975883 0 0 0############### ###

b1 -0.3167785 0.1 0 0############### ###
b2 0.03364807 0 0 0############### ###
b3 = -0.00167305 0 0################## ###
b4 4.50876E-05 ######################## ###
b5 -6.9814E-07 ######################## ###
b6 6.206E-09 ######################## ###
b7 -2.9427E-11 ######################## ###
b8 5.76598E-14 ######################## ###

b0 284.772661
b1 15.4096391
b2 -2.39814617
b3 = 0.14203501
b4 -0.00416505
b5 6.56265E-05
b6 -5.5611E-07
b7 2.3571E-09
b8 -3.8541E-12
t5Xt t6Xt t7Xt t8Xt Tt et et2 At 800
312 312 312 312 297.922089 13.8679114 192.318966 1.04654879 700
### ### ### ### 307.071058 4.71894188 22.2684125 1.01536759
### ### ### ### 312.931385 -1.14138515 1.30276005 0.9963526 600
### ### ### ### 316.129827 -4.33982685 18.8340971 0.98627201 500
### ### ### ### 317.214995 -5.42499482 29.4305688 0.98289805
400
### ### ### ### 316.663903 -7.61390289 57.9715172 0.97595589
### ### ### ### 314.888161 -5.83816076 34.084121 0.98145957 300
### ### ### ### 312.239825 -13.1198246 172.129798 0.95798158
200
### ### ### ### 309.016916 1.78308412 3.17938898 1.00577018
### ### ### ### 305.468619 4.8713813 23.7303558 1.01594724 100
### ### ### ### 301.800167 -12.9501672 167.706831 0.95709026
0
### ### ### ### 298.177433 -9.32743305 87.0010074 0.96871851
1 8 15 2 2 29 3 6 4 3 50 5 7 64 71 78
### ### ### ### 294.731223 -5.8812231 34.5887852 0.98004547
### ### ### ### 291.561299 -1.49129853 2.22397131 0.99488513
### ### ### ### 288.740124 4.53987556 20.6104701 1.01572305
### ### ### ### 286.316361 10.1136395 102.285704 1.0353233 150
### ### ### ### 284.318102 11.7318977 137.637425 1.04126328
### ### ### ### 282.755883 6.99411744 48.9176788 1.02473553
100
### ### ### ### 281.625443 7.47455705 55.8690031 1.02654077
### ### ### ### 280.910284 9.55971604 91.3881707 1.03403121
50
### ### ### ### 280.584004 7.48599632 56.0401409 1.02668005
### ### ### ### 280.612434 7.30756646 53.4005275 1.02604149
### ### ### ### 280.95558 6.9644198 48.5031432 1.02478833 0
1 8 1 5 22 29 36 43 50 5 7 6 4 71 78 85 9 2
### ### ### ### 281.569382 6.35061787 40.3303473 1.02255436
### ### ### ### 282.40729 5.23271037 27.3812578 1.01852895 -50
### ### ### ### 283.421676 2.84832359 8.11294728 1.01004977
### ### ### ### 284.565091 3.84490886 14.7833241 1.01351153 -100
### ### ### ### 285.791357 5.69864295 32.4745315 1.01993987
### ### ### ### 287.056527 4.89347268 23.9460748 1.01704707 -150
### ### ### ### 288.319704 -0.64970428 0.42211565 0.99774658
### ### ### ### 289.54373 -1.19372973 1.42499067 0.9958772
### ### ### ### 290.695754 -6.56575417 43.1091278 0.97741366
### ### ### ### 291.747692 -5.10769188 26.0885164 0.98249278
### ### ### ### 292.676569 -6.3365693 40.1521105 0.97834958
### ### ### ### 293.464773 -4.07477346 16.6037787 0.98611495
### ### ### ### 294.100207 -11.0902075 122.992702 0.96229106
### ### ### ### 294.57636 -15.3563596 235.81778 0.94786968
### ### ### ### 294.892293 -15.6722925 245.620754 0.94685418
### ### ### ### 295.052559 -15.8325593 250.669934 0.94633987
### ### ### ### 295.067052 -11.8470517 140.352633 0.95984963
### ### ### ### 294.950788 -13.7907876 190.185822 0.95324377
### ### ### ### 294.723643 -13.5636432 183.972416 0.95397844
### ### ### ### 294.410035 -11.3700353 129.277703 0.96138027
### ### ### ### 294.03856 -14.99856 224.956802 0.94899118
### ### ### ### 293.641592 -12.6015923 158.800129 0.95708512
### ### ### ### 293.254853 -10.1748532 103.527638 0.96530372
### ### ### ### 292.916948 -1.76694795 3.12210504 0.99396775
### ### ### ### 292.668881 0.56111865 0.31485414 1.00191725
### ### ### ### 292.553555 0.34644509 0.1200242 1.00118421
### ### ### ### 292.61525 1.4447501 2.08730284 1.00493737
### ### ### ### 292.899101 12.3208986 151.804541 1.04206533
### ### ### ### 293.450568 12.3594325 152.755571 1.0421176
### ### ### ### 294.314898 14.4951024 210.107995 1.04925032
### ### ### ### 295.536604 16.573396 274.677456 1.056079
### ### ### ### 297.158941 23.2510587 540.611729 1.07824452
### ### ### ### 299.223396 25.8966039 670.634094 1.08654605
### ### ### ### 301.769191 24.3008089 590.529312 1.0805278
### ### ### ### 304.832808 27.9171921 779.369612 1.09158198
### ### ### ### 308.44753 30.6224698 937.735656 1.09927935
### ### ### ### 312.643011 29.2469885 855.386338 1.09354755
### ### ### ### 317.44487 28.1951299 794.965348 1.08881898
### ### ### ### 322.874314 24.2656856 588.823499 1.07515521
### ### ### ### 328.9478 22.0022002 484.096814 1.0668866
### ### ### ### 335.676722 16.833278 283.359248 1.05014729
### ### ### ### 343.067147 13.6928531 187.494226 1.03991304
### ### ### ### 351.11958 4.77041968 22.756904 1.01358631
### ### ### ### 359.828779 -5.18877934 26.9234311 0.98557987
### ### ### ### 369.183607 -13.3436072 178.051854 0.96385645
### ### ### ### 379.166933 -22.0169333 484.745354 0.9419334
### ### ### ### 389.75558 -30.2955799 917.822159 0.92227031
### ### ### ### 400.920317 -40.2103166 1616.86956 0.89970497
### ### ### ### 412.625905 -52.2259053 2727.54518 0.87343038
### ### ### ### 424.831194 -66.8011939 4462.39951 0.84275827
### ### ### ### 437.489263 -77.9892629 6082.32513 0.82173445
### ### ### ### 450.547623 -85.6476231 7335.51534 0.80990329
### ### ### ### 463.948466 -83.3584664 6948.63392 0.82032818
### ### ### ### 477.62897 -83.7089701 7007.19167 0.82474059
### ### ### ### 491.521654 -32.7816539 1074.63683 0.93330578
### ### ### ### 505.554791 42.0252087 1766.11816 1.08312691
### ### ### ### 519.652875 107.587125 11574.9896 1.20703653
### ### ### ### 533.737132 93.052868 8658.83623 1.17434213
### ### ### ### 547.726101 71.0038993 5041.55371 1.12963395
### ### ### ### 561.536249 49.9737507 2497.37576 1.0889947
### ### ### ### 575.082655 29.1173452 847.819789 1.05063158
### ### ### ### 588.27973 15.6902703 246.184581 1.02667144
### ### ### ### 601.042 2.04800043 4.19430575 1.00340742
### ### ### ### 613.28493 -8.11492998 65.8520886 0.98676809
### ### ### ### 624.925801 -0.58580146 0.34316335 0.99906261
### ### ### ### 635.884631 -5.55463079 30.8539232 0.99126472
### ### ### ### 646.085137 2.72486251 7.42487572 1.0042175
### ### ### ### 655.455754 2.1842465 4.77093276 1.00333241
### ### ### ### 663.930674 17.3893257 302.388647 1.02619148
### ### ### ### 671.45095 20.4390504 417.754781 1.03044012
### ### ### ### 677.965611 20.3543894 414.301167 1.03002275
### ### ### ### 683.432833 12.4971668 156.179179 1.01828587
### ### ### ### 687.821132 14.4588677 209.058855 1.02102126
### ### ### ### 691.110587 -1.78058705 3.17049024 0.99742359
### ### ### ### 693.294092 -9.67409202 93.5880565 0.98604619
### ### ### ### 694.378633 -10.3286329 106.680659 0.98512536
### ### ### ### 694.386583 -12.386583 153.427439 0.98216183
### ### ### ### 693.357017 -14.1470168 200.138085 0.97959635
### ### ### ### 691.347039 -18.7370385 351.076614 0.97289778
### ### ### ### 688.43312 -19.5231204 381.152231 0.97164122
### ### ### ### 684.712448 -20.1424483 405.718223 0.97058262
### ### ### ### 680.30427 -16.1742701 261.607012 0.97622495
### ### ### ### 675.351243 -20.7212429 429.369905 0.96931783
### ### ### ### 670.020775 -28.540775 814.575836 0.95740315
### ### ### ### 664.506358 -23.6263582 558.204803 0.96444525
### ### ### ### 659.028886 -7.2388859 52.4014691 0.98901583
### ### ### ### 653.837952 5.37204796 28.8588993 1.00821618
### ### ### ### 649.213127 12.0668731 145.609427 1.01858692
### ### ### ### 645.465204 16.9647963 287.804313 1.02628305
### ### ### ### 642.937412 23.4225881 548.617634 1.03643059
### ### ### ### 642.006591 23.7534093 564.224454 1.0369987
### ### ### ### 643.084319 25.4756812 649.010332 1.03961484
### ### ### ### 646.617993 19.2220066 369.485536 1.02972699
### ### ### ### 653.091854 12.4681463 155.454673 1.01909095
### ### ### ### 663.027942 0.81205806 0.65943829 1.00122477
### ### ### ### 676.986998 -13.7669976 189.530223 0.97966431
### ### ### ### 695.569276 -31.7292765 1006.74699 0.95438373
### ### ### ### 90118.9527 #DIV/0!
t5Xt t6Xt t7Xt t8Xt #VALUE!
 xt
Tt

29 3 6 4 3 50 5 7 64 71 78 85 9 2 99 10 6 11 3 1 2 0

Column V
43 50 5 7 6 4 71 78 85 9 2 9 9 1 0 6 1 1 3 1 2 0
FUNCION DE TIEMPO

t xt t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8
1 311.79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 311.79 4 8 16 32 64 128 256
3 311.79 9 27 81 243 729 2187 6561
4 311.79 16 64 256 1024 4096 16384 65536
5 311.79 25 125 625 3125 15625 78125 390625
6 309.05 36 216 1296 7776 46656 279936 1679616
7 309.05 49 343 2401 16807 117649 823543 5764801
8 299.12 64 512 4096 32768 262144 2097152 16777216
9 310.8 81 729 6561 59049 531441 4782969 43046721
10 310.34 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 1E+07 1E+08
11 288.85 121 1331 14641 161051 1771561 19487171 2.14E+08
12 288.85 144 1728 20736 248832 2985984 35831808 4.3E+08
13 288.85 169 2197 28561 371293 4826809 62748517 8.16E+08
14 290.07 196 2744 38416 537824 7529536 1.05E+08 1.48E+09
15 293.28 225 3375 50625 759375 11390625 1.71E+08 2.56E+09
16 296.43 256 4096 65536 1048576 16777216 2.68E+08 4.29E+09
17 296.05 289 4913 83521 1419857 24137569 4.1E+08 7E+09
18 289.75 324 5832 104976 1889568 34012224 6.12E+08 1.1E+10
19 289.1 361 6859 130321 2476099 47045881 8.94E+08 1.7E+10
20 290.47 400 8000 160000 3200000 64000000 1.28E+09 2.56E+10
21 288.07 441 9261 194481 4084101 85766121 1.8E+09 3.78E+10
22 287.92 484 10648 234256 5153632 1.13E+08 2.49E+09 5.49E+10
23 287.92 529 12167 279841 6436343 1.48E+08 3.4E+09 7.83E+10
24 287.92 576 13824 331776 7962624 1.91E+08 4.59E+09 1.1E+11
25 287.64 625 15625 390625 9765625 2.44E+08 6.1E+09 1.53E+11
26 286.27 676 17576 456976 11881376 3.09E+08 8E+09 2.09E+11
27 288.41 729 19683 531441 14348907 3.87E+08 1E+10 2.82E+11
28 291.49 784 21952 614656 17210368 4.82E+08 1.35E+10 3.78E+11
29 291.95 841 24389 707281 20511149 5.95E+08 1.72E+10 5E+11
30 287.67 900 27000 810000 24300000 7.29E+08 2.19E+10 6.56E+11
31 288.35 961 29791 923521 28629151 8.88E+08 2.75E+10 8.53E+11
32 284.13 1024 32768 1048576 33554432 1.07E+09 3.44E+10 1.1E+12
33 286.64 1089 35937 1185921 39135393 1.29E+09 4.26E+10 1.41E+12
34 286.34 1156 39304 1336336 45435424 1.54E+09 5.25E+10 1.79E+12
35 289.39 1225 42875 1500625 52521875 1.84E+09 6.43E+10 2.25E+12
36 283.01 1296 46656 1679616 6E+07 2.18E+09 7.84E+10 2.82E+12
37 279.22 1369 50653 1874161 69343957 2.57E+09 9.49E+10 3.51E+12
38 279.22 1444 54872 2085136 79235168 3E+09 1.14E+11 4.35E+12
39 279.22 1521 59319 2313441 9E+07 3.52E+09 1.37E+11 5.35E+12
40 283.22 1600 64000 2560000 1E+08 4.1E+09 1.64E+11 6.55E+12
41 281.16 1681 68921 2825761 1.16E+08 4.75E+09 1.95E+11 8E+12
42 281.16 1764 74088 3111696 1.31E+08 5.49E+09 2.31E+11 9.68E+12
43 283.04 1849 79507 3418801 1.47E+08 6.32E+09 2.72E+11 1.17E+13
44 279.04 1936 85184 3748096 1.65E+08 7.26E+09 3.19E+11 1.4E+13
45 281.04 2025 91125 4100625 1.85E+08 8.3E+09 3.74E+11 1.68E+13
46 283.08 2116 97336 4477456 2.06E+08 9.47E+09 4.36E+11 2E+13
47 291.15 2209 103823 4879681 2.29E+08 1.08E+10 5.07E+11 2.38E+13
48 293.23 2304 110592 5308416 2.55E+08 1.22E+10 5.87E+11 2.82E+13
49 292.9 2401 117649 5764801 2.82E+08 1.38E+10 6.78E+11 3.32E+13
50 294.06 2500 125000 6250000 3.13E+08 1.56E+10 7.81E+11 3.91E+13
51 305.22 2601 132651 6765201 3.45E+08 1.76E+10 9E+11 4.58E+13
52 305.81 2704 140608 7311616 3.8E+08 2E+10 1E+12 5.35E+13
53 308.81 2809 148877 7890481 4.18E+08 2.22E+10 1.17E+12 6.23E+13
54 312.11 2916 157464 8503056 4.59E+08 2.48E+10 1.34E+12 7.23E+13
55 320.41 3025 166375 9150625 5E+08 2.77E+10 1.52E+12 8.37E+13
56 325.12 3136 175616 9834496 5.51E+08 3.08E+10 1.73E+12 9.67E+13
57 326.07 3249 185193 10556001 6E+08 3.43E+10 2E+12 1.11E+14
58 332.75 3364 195112 11316496 6.56E+08 3.81E+10 2.21E+12 1.28E+14
59 339.07 3481 205379 12117361 7.15E+08 4.22E+10 2.49E+12 1.47E+14
60 341.89 3600 216000 12960000 7.78E+08 4.67E+10 2.8E+12 1.68E+14
61 345.64 3721 226981 13845841 8.45E+08 5.15E+10 3.14E+12 1.92E+14
62 347.14 3844 238328 14776336 9.16E+08 5.68E+10 3.52E+12 2.18E+14
63 350.95 3969 250047 15752961 9.92E+08 6.25E+10 3.94E+12 2.48E+14
64 352.51 4096 262144 16777216 1.07E+09 6.87E+10 4.4E+12 2.81E+14
65 356.76 4225 274625 17850625 1.16E+09 7.54E+10 4.9E+12 3.19E+14
66 355.89 4356 287496 18974736 1.25E+09 8.27E+10 5.46E+12 3.6E+14
67 354.64 4489 300763 2E+07 1.35E+09 9E+10 6.06E+12 4.06E+14
68 355.84 4624 314432 21381376 1.45E+09 9.89E+10 6.72E+12 4.57E+14
69 357.15 4761 328509 22667121 1.56E+09 1.08E+11 7.45E+12 5.14E+14
70 359.46 4900 343000 24010000 1.68E+09 1.18E+11 8.24E+12 5.76E+14
71 360.71 5041 357911 25411681 1.8E+09 1.28E+11 9.1E+12 6.46E+14
72 360.4 5184 373248 26873856 1.93E+09 1.39E+11 1E+13 7.22E+14
73 358.03 5329 389017 28398241 2.07E+09 1.51E+11 1.1E+13 8.06E+14
74 359.5 5476 405224 3E+07 2.22E+09 1.64E+11 1.22E+13 9E+14
75 364.9 5625 421875 31640625 2.37E+09 1.78E+11 1.33E+13 1E+15
76 380.59 5776 438976 33362176 2.54E+09 1.93E+11 1.46E+13 1.11E+15
77 393.92 5929 456533 35153041 2.71E+09 2.08E+11 1.6E+13 1.24E+15
78 458.74 6084 474552 37015056 2.89E+09 2.25E+11 1.76E+13 1.37E+15
79 547.58 6241 493039 38950081 3.08E+09 2.43E+11 1.92E+13 1.52E+15
80 627.24 6400 512000 40960000 3.28E+09 2.62E+11 2.1E+13 1.68E+15
81 626.79 6561 531441 43046721 3.49E+09 2.82E+11 2.29E+13 1.85E+15
82 618.73 6724 551368 45212176 3.71E+09 3E+11 2.49E+13 2E+15
83 611.51 6889 571787 47458321 3.94E+09 3.27E+11 2.71E+13 2.25E+15
84 604.2 7056 592704 5E+07 4.18E+09 3.51E+11 3E+13 2.48E+15
85 603.97 7225 614125 52200625 4.44E+09 3.77E+11 3.21E+13 2.72E+15
 86 603.09 7396 636056 54700816 4.7E+09 4E+11 3.48E+13 3E+15
87 605.17 7569 658503 57289761 5E+09 4.34E+11 3.77E+13 3.28E+15
88 624.34 7744 681472 6E+07 5.28E+09 4.64E+11 4.09E+13 3.6E+15
89 630.33 7921 704969 62742241 5.58E+09 5E+11 4.42E+13 3.94E+15
90 648.81 8100 729000 65610000 5.9E+09 5.31E+11 4.78E+13 4.3E+15
91 657.64 8281 753571 68574961 6.24E+09 5.68E+11 5.17E+13 4.7E+15
92 681.32 8464 778688 71639296 6.59E+09 6.06E+11 5.58E+13 5.13E+15
93 691.89 8649 804357 74805201 7E+09 6.47E+11 6E+13 5.6E+15
94 698.32 8836 830584 78074896 7.34E+09 6.9E+11 6.48E+13 6.1E+15
95 695.93 9025 857375 81450625 7.74E+09 7.35E+11 7E+13 6.63E+15
96 702.28 9216 884736 84934656 8.15E+09 7.83E+11 7.51E+13 7.21E+15
97 689.33 9409 912673 88529281 8.59E+09 8.33E+11 8.08E+13 7.84E+15
98 683.62 9604 941192 92236816 9E+09 8.86E+11 8.68E+13 8.51E+15
99 684.05 9801 970299 96059601 9.51E+09 9.41E+11 9.32E+13 9.23E+15
100 682 10000 1000000 1E+08 1E+10 1E+12 1E+14 1E+016
101 679.21 10201 1030301 1E+08 1.05E+10 1.06E+12 1.07E+14 1.08E+16
102 672.61 10404 1061208 1.08E+08 1.1E+10 1.13E+12 1.15E+14 1.17E+16
103 668.91 10609 1092727 1.13E+08 1.16E+10 1.19E+12 1.23E+14 1.27E+16
104 664.57 10816 1124864 1.17E+08 1.22E+10 1.27E+12 1.32E+14 1.37E+16
105 664.13 11025 1157625 1.22E+08 1.28E+10 1.34E+12 1.41E+14 1.48E+16
106 654.63 11236 1191016 1.26E+08 1.34E+10 1.42E+12 1.5E+14 1.59E+16
107 641.48 11449 1225043 1.31E+08 1.4E+10 1.5E+12 1.61E+14 1.72E+16
108 640.88 11664 1259712 1.36E+08 1.47E+10 1.59E+12 1.71E+14 1.85E+16
109 651.79 11881 1295029 1.41E+08 1.54E+10 1.68E+12 1.83E+14 2E+16
110 659.21 12100 1331000 1.46E+08 1.61E+10 1.77E+12 1.95E+14 2.14E+16
111 661.28 12321 1367631 1.52E+08 1.69E+10 1.87E+12 2.08E+14 2.3E+16
112 662.43 12544 1404928 1.57E+08 1.76E+10 2E+12 2.21E+14 2.48E+16
113 666.36 12769 1442897 1.63E+08 1.84E+10 2.08E+12 2.35E+14 2.66E+16
114 665.76 12996 1481544 1.69E+08 1.93E+10 2.19E+12 2.5E+14 2.85E+16
115 668.56 13225 1520875 1.75E+08 2E+10 2.31E+12 2.66E+14 3.06E+16
116 665.84 13456 1560896 1.81E+08 2.1E+10 2.44E+12 2.83E+14 3.28E+16
117 665.56 13689 1601613 1.87E+08 2.19E+10 2.57E+12 3E+14 3.51E+16
118 663.84 13924 1643032 1.94E+08 2.29E+10 2.7E+12 3.19E+14 3.76E+16
119 663.22 14161 1685159 2E+08 2.39E+10 2.84E+12 3.38E+14 4E+16
120 663.84 14400 1728000 2.07E+08 2.49E+10 3E+12 3.58E+14 4.3E+16
7260 51845.15 583220 52707600 5.08E+09 5.1E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17
t xt t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
t7
t8

b0 120 7260 583220 52707600 5.08E+09 5.1E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15

b1 7260 583220 52707600 5.08E+09 5.1E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17
b2 583220 52707600 5.08E+09 5.1E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17 6.45E+19
b3 = 52707600 5.08E+09 5.1E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17 6.45E+19 7.07E+21
b4 5080895996 5.1E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17 6.45E+19 7.07E+21 7.81E+23
b5 5.1019E+11 5.27E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17 6.45E+19 7.07E+21 7.81E+23 8.68E+25
b6 5.2694E+13 5.56E+15 6E+17 6.45E+19 7.07E+21 7.81E+23 8.68E+25 9.72E+27
b7 5.5557E+15 6E+17 6.45E+19 7.07E+21 7.81E+23 8.68E+25 9.72E+27 1.09E+30

b0 0.70149636 -0.18274 0.015141 -0.00058 1.15E-05 -1.2E-07 6.84E-10 -1.5E-12

b1 -0.18274026 0.059715 -0.00545 0.000219 -4.5E-06 4.98E-08 -2.8E-10 6.32E-13
b2 0.01514129 -0.00545 0.000527 -2.2E-05 4.64E-07 -5.2E-09 2.99E-11 -6.8E-14
b3 = -0.00057545 0.000219 -2.2E-05 9.38E-07 -2E-08 2.31E-10 -1.3E-12 3.08E-15
b4 1.14562E-05 -4.5E-06 4.64E-07 -2E-08 4.43E-10 -5.1E-12 2.99E-14 -6.9E-17
b5 -1.2357E-07 4.98E-08 -5.2E-09 2.31E-10 -5.1E-12 5.98E-14 -3.5E-16 8.23E-19
b6 6.83576E-10 -2.8E-10 2.99E-11 -1.3E-12 2.99E-14 -3.5E-16 2.09E-18 -4.9E-21
b7 -1.5195E-12 6.32E-13 -6.8E-14 3.08E-15 -6.9E-17 8.23E-19 -4.9E-21 1.16E-23

b0 302.034033
b1 6.45041601
b2 -1.16112863
b3 = 0.06866941
b4 -0.00191708
b5 2.72216E-05
b6 -1.8699E-07
b7 4.91732E-10
t9 t10 t11 t12 t13 t14 tXt t2Xt t3Xt t4Xt t5Xt t6Xt
1 1 1 1 1 1 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79 311.79
512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 623.58 1247.16 2494.32 4988.64 9977.28 19954.6
19683 59049 177147 531441 1594323 4782969 935.37 2806.11 8418.33 25255 75765 227295
262144 1048576 4194304 16777216 67108864 2.68E+08 1247.16 4988.64 19954.6 79818.2 319273 1277092
1953125 9765625 48828125 2.44E+08 1.22E+09 6.1E+09 1558.95 7794.75 38973.8 194869 974344 4871719
1E+07 6E+07 3.63E+08 2.18E+09 1.31E+10 7.84E+10 1854.3 11125.8 66754.8 400529 2403173 1.4E+07
4E+07 2.82E+08 2E+09 1.38E+10 9.69E+10 6.78E+11 2163.35 15143.5 106004 742029 5194203 3.6E+07
1.34E+08 1.07E+09 8.59E+09 6.87E+10 5.5E+11 4.4E+12 2392.96 19143.7 153149 1225196 9801564 7.8E+07
3.87E+08 3.49E+09 3.14E+10 2.82E+11 2.54E+12 2.29E+13 2797.2 25174.8 226573 2039159 1.8E+07 1.7E+08
1E+09 1E+10 1E+11 1E+12 1E+13 1E+14 3103.4 31034 310340 3103400 3.1E+07 3.1E+08
2.36E+09 2.59E+10 2.85E+11 3.14E+12 3.45E+13 3.8E+14 3177.35 34950.9 384459 4229053 4.7E+07 5.1E+08
5.16E+09 6.19E+10 7.43E+11 8.92E+12 1.07E+14 1.28E+15 3466.2 41594.4 499133 5989594 7.2E+07 8.6E+08
1.06E+10 1.38E+11 1.79E+12 2.33E+13 3E+14 3.94E+15 3755.05 48815.7 634603 8249845 1.1E+08 1.4E+09
2.07E+10 2.89E+11 4E+12 5.67E+13 7.94E+14 1.11E+16 4060.98 56853.7 795952 1.1E+07 1.6E+08 2.2E+09
3.84E+10 5.77E+11 8.65E+12 1.3E+14 1.95E+15 2.92E+16 4399.2 65988 989820 1.5E+07 2.2E+08 3.3E+09
6.87E+10 1.1E+12 1.76E+13 2.81E+14 4.5E+15 7.21E+16 4742.88 75886.1 1214177 1.9E+07 3.1E+08 5E+09
1.19E+11 2E+12 3.43E+13 5.83E+14 9.9E+15 1.68E+17 5032.85 85558.5 1454494 2.5E+07 4.2E+08 7.1E+09
2E+11 3.57E+12 6.43E+13 1.16E+15 2.08E+16 3.75E+17 5215.5 93879 1689822 3E+07 5.5E+08 9.9E+09
3.23E+11 6.13E+12 1.16E+14 2.21E+15 4.21E+16 8E+17 5492.9 104365 1982937 3.8E+07 7.2E+08 1.4E+10
5.12E+11 1E+13 2E+14 4.1E+15 8.19E+16 1.64E+18 5809.4 116188 2323760 4.6E+07 9.3E+08 1.9E+10
7.94E+11 1.67E+13 3.5E+14 7.36E+15 1.54E+17 3.24E+18 6049.47 127039 2667816 5.6E+07 1.2E+09 2.5E+10
1.21E+12 2.66E+13 5.84E+14 1.29E+16 2.83E+17 6.22E+18 6334.24 139353 3065772 6.7E+07 1.5E+09 3.3E+10
1.8E+12 4.14E+13 9.53E+14 2.19E+16 5E+17 1.16E+19 6622.16 152310 3503123 8.1E+07 1.9E+09 4.3E+10
2.64E+12 6.34E+13 1.52E+15 3.65E+16 8.76E+17 2.1E+19 6910.08 165842 3980206 9.6E+07 2.3E+09 5.5E+10
3.81E+12 9.54E+13 2.38E+15 6E+16 1.49E+18 3.73E+19 7191 179775 4494375 1.1E+08 2.8E+09 7E+10
5.43E+12 1.41E+14 3.67E+15 9.54E+16 2.48E+18 6.45E+19 7443.02 193519 5031482 1.3E+08 3.4E+09 8.8E+10
7.63E+12 2.06E+14 5.56E+15 1.5E+17 4.05E+18 1.09E+20 7787.07 210251 5676774 1.5E+08 4.1E+09 1.1E+11
1.06E+13 3E+14 8.29E+15 2.32E+17 6.5E+18 1.82E+20 8161.72 228528 6398788 1.8E+08 5E+09 1.4E+11
1.45E+13 4.21E+14 1.22E+16 3.54E+17 1E+19 3E+20 8466.55 245530 7120369 2.1E+08 6E+09 1.7E+11
2E+13 5.9E+14 1.77E+16 5.31E+17 1.59E+19 4.78E+20 8630.1 258903 7767090 2.3E+08 7E+09 2.1E+11
2.64E+13 8.2E+14 2.54E+16 7.88E+17 2.44E+19 7.57E+20 8938.85 277104 8590235 2.7E+08 8.3E+09 2.6E+11
3.52E+13 1.13E+15 3.6E+16 1.15E+18 3.69E+19 1.18E+21 9092.16 290949 9310372 3E+08 9.5E+09 3.1E+11
4.64E+13 1.53E+15 5.05E+16 1.67E+18 5.5E+19 1.82E+21 9459.12 312151 1E+07 3.4E+08 1.1E+10 3.7E+11
6.07E+13 2.06E+15 7E+16 2.39E+18 8.11E+19 2.76E+21 9735.56 331009 1.1E+07 3.8E+08 1.3E+10 4.4E+11
7.88E+13 2.76E+15 9.65E+16 3.38E+18 1.18E+20 4.14E+21 10128.7 354503 1.2E+07 4.3E+08 1.5E+10 5.3E+11
1E+14 3.66E+15 1.32E+17 4.74E+18 1.71E+20 6.14E+21 10188.4 366781 1.3E+07 4.8E+08 1.7E+10 6.2E+11
1.3E+14 4.81E+15 1.78E+17 6.58E+18 2.44E+20 9E+21 10331.1 382252 1.4E+07 5.2E+08 1.9E+10 7.2E+11
1.65E+14 6.28E+15 2.39E+17 9.07E+18 3.44E+20 1.31E+22 10610.4 403194 1.5E+07 5.8E+08 2.2E+10 8.4E+11
2.09E+14 8.14E+15 3.17E+17 1.24E+19 4.83E+20 1.88E+22 10889.6 424694 1.7E+07 6.5E+08 2.5E+10 9.8E+11
2.62E+14 1E+16 4.19E+17 1.68E+19 6.71E+20 2.68E+22 11328.8 453152 1.8E+07 7.3E+08 2.9E+10 1.2E+12
3.27E+14 1.34E+16 5.5E+17 2.26E+19 9.25E+20 3.79E+22 11527.6 472630 1.9E+07 7.9E+08 3.3E+10 1.3E+12
4.07E+14 1.71E+16 7.17E+17 3E+19 1.27E+21 5.31E+22 11808.7 495966 2.1E+07 8.7E+08 3.7E+10 1.5E+12
5E+14 2.16E+16 9.29E+17 4E+19 1.72E+21 7.39E+22 12170.7 523341 2.3E+07 9.7E+08 4.2E+10 1.8E+12
6.18E+14 2.72E+16 1.2E+18 5.27E+19 2.32E+21 1E+23 12277.8 540221 2.4E+07 1E+09 4.6E+10 2E+12
7.57E+14 3.41E+16 1.53E+18 6.9E+19 3.1E+21 1.4E+23 12646.8 569106 2.6E+07 1.2E+09 5.2E+10 2.3E+12
9.22E+14 4.24E+16 2E+18 9E+19 4.13E+21 1.9E+23 13021.7 598997 2.8E+07 1.3E+09 5.8E+10 2.7E+12
1.12E+15 5.26E+16 2.47E+18 1.16E+20 5.46E+21 2.57E+23 13684.1 643150 3E+07 1.4E+09 6.7E+10 3.1E+12
1.35E+15 6.49E+16 3.12E+18 1.5E+20 7.18E+21 3.45E+23 14075 675602 3.2E+07 1.6E+09 7.5E+10 3.6E+12
1.63E+15 8E+16 3.91E+18 1.92E+20 9.39E+21 4.6E+23 14352.1 703253 3.4E+07 1.7E+09 8.3E+10 4.1E+12
2E+15 9.77E+16 4.88E+18 2.44E+20 1.22E+22 6.1E+23 14703 735150 3.7E+07 1.8E+09 9.2E+10 4.6E+12
2.33E+15 1.19E+17 6.07E+18 3.1E+20 1.58E+22 8.05E+23 15566.2 793877 4E+07 2.1E+09 1.1E+11 5.4E+12
2.78E+15 1.45E+17 7.52E+18 3.91E+20 2E+22 1.06E+24 15902.1 826910 4.3E+07 2.2E+09 1.2E+11 6E+12
3.3E+15 1.75E+17 9.27E+18 4.91E+20 2.6E+22 1.38E+24 16366.9 867447 4.6E+07 2.4E+09 1.3E+11 6.8E+12
3.9E+15 2.11E+17 1.14E+19 6.15E+20 3.32E+22 1.79E+24 16853.9 910113 4.9E+07 2.7E+09 1.4E+11 7.7E+12
4.61E+15 2.53E+17 1.39E+19 7.66E+20 4.21E+22 2.32E+24 17622.6 969240 5.3E+07 2.9E+09 1.6E+11 8.9E+12
5.42E+15 3E+17 1.7E+19 9.51E+20 5.33E+22 3E+24 18206.7 1019576 5.7E+07 3.2E+09 1.8E+11 1E+13
6.35E+15 3.62E+17 2.06E+19 1.18E+21 6.7E+22 3.82E+24 18586 1059401 6E+07 3.4E+09 2E+11 1.1E+13
7.43E+15 4.31E+17 2.5E+19 1.45E+21 8.41E+22 4.88E+24 19299.5 1119371 6.5E+07 3.8E+09 2.2E+11 1.3E+13
8.66E+15 5.11E+17 3E+19 1.78E+21 1E+23 6.19E+24 20005.1 1180303 7E+07 4.1E+09 2.4E+11 1.4E+13
1E+16 6E+17 3.63E+19 2.18E+21 1.31E+23 7.84E+24 20513.4 1230804 7.4E+07 4.4E+09 2.7E+11 1.6E+13
1.17E+16 7.13E+17 4.35E+19 2.65E+21 1.62E+23 9.88E+24 21084 1286126 7.8E+07 4.8E+09 2.9E+11 1.8E+13
1.35E+16 8.39E+17 5.2E+19 3.23E+21 2E+23 1.24E+25 21522.7 1334406 8.3E+07 5.1E+09 3.2E+11 2E+13
1.56E+16 9.85E+17 6.21E+19 3.91E+21 2.46E+23 1.55E+25 22109.9 1392921 8.8E+07 5.5E+09 3.5E+11 2.2E+13
1.8E+16 1.15E+18 7.38E+19 4.72E+21 3E+23 1.93E+25 22560.6 1443881 9.2E+07 5.9E+09 3.8E+11 2.4E+13
2.07E+16 1.35E+18 8.75E+19 5.69E+21 3.7E+23 2.4E+25 23189.4 1507311 9.8E+07 6.4E+09 4.1E+11 2.7E+13
2.38E+16 1.57E+18 1E+20 6.83E+21 4.51E+23 3E+25 23488.7 1550257 1E+08 6.8E+09 4.5E+11 2.9E+13
2.72E+16 1.82E+18 1.22E+20 8.18E+21 5.48E+23 3.67E+25 23760.9 1591979 1.1E+08 7.1E+09 4.8E+11 3.2E+13
3.11E+16 2.11E+18 1.44E+20 9.77E+21 6.65E+23 4.52E+25 24197.1 1645404 1.1E+08 7.6E+09 5.2E+11 3.5E+13
3.55E+16 2.45E+18 1.69E+20 1.16E+22 8E+23 5.54E+25 24643.4 1700391 1.2E+08 8.1E+09 5.6E+11 3.9E+13
4E+16 2.82E+18 2E+20 1.38E+22 9.69E+23 6.78E+25 25162.2 1761354 1.2E+08 8.6E+09 6E+11 4.2E+13
4.58E+16 3.26E+18 2.31E+20 1.64E+22 1.17E+24 8.27E+25 25610.4 1818339 1.3E+08 9.2E+09 6.5E+11 4.6E+13
5.2E+16 3.74E+18 2.7E+20 1.94E+22 1.4E+24 1E+26 25948.8 1868314 1.3E+08 9.7E+09 7E+11 5E+13
5.89E+16 4.3E+18 3.14E+20 2.29E+22 1.67E+24 1.22E+26 26136.2 1907942 1.4E+08 1E+10 7.4E+11 5.4E+13
6.65E+16 4.92E+18 3.64E+20 2.7E+22 2E+24 1.48E+26 26603 1968622 1.5E+08 1.1E+10 8E+11 5.9E+13
7.51E+16 5.63E+18 4.22E+20 3.17E+22 2.38E+24 1.78E+26 27367.5 2052563 1.5E+08 1.2E+10 8.7E+11 6.5E+13
8.46E+16 6.43E+18 4.89E+20 3.71E+22 2.82E+24 2.14E+26 28924.8 2198288 1.7E+08 1.3E+10 9.6E+11 7.3E+13
9.52E+16 7.33E+18 5.64E+20 4.34E+22 3.34E+24 2.58E+26 30331.8 2335552 1.8E+08 1.4E+10 1.1E+12 8.2E+13
1.07E+17 8.34E+18 6.5E+20 5.07E+22 4E+24 3.09E+26 35781.7 2790974 2.2E+08 1.7E+10 1.3E+12 1E+14
1.2E+17 9.47E+18 7.48E+20 5.91E+22 4.67E+24 3.69E+26 43258.8 3417447 2.7E+08 2.1E+10 1.7E+12 1.3E+14
1.34E+17 1.07E+19 8.59E+20 6.87E+22 5.5E+24 4.4E+26 50179.2 4014336 3.2E+08 2.6E+10 2.1E+12 1.6E+14
1.5E+17 1.22E+19 9.85E+20 8E+22 6.46E+24 5.23E+26 50770 4112369 3.3E+08 2.7E+10 2.2E+12 1.8E+14
1.68E+17 1.37E+19 1.13E+21 9.24E+22 7.58E+24 6.21E+26 50735.9 4160341 3.4E+08 2.8E+10 2.3E+12 1.9E+14
1.87E+17 1.55E+19 1.29E+21 1.07E+23 8.87E+24 7.36E+26 50755.3 4212692 3.5E+08 2.9E+10 2.4E+12 2E+14
2.08E+17 1.75E+19 1.47E+21 1.23E+23 1E+25 8.71E+26 50752.8 4263235 3.6E+08 3E+10 2.5E+12 2.1E+14
2.32E+17 2E+19 1.67E+21 1.42E+23 1.21E+25 1E+27 51337.5 4363683 3.7E+08 3.2E+10 2.7E+12 2.3E+14
2.57E+17 2.21E+19 1.9E+21 1.64E+23 1.41E+25 1.21E+27 51865.7 4460454 3.8E+08 3.3E+10 2.8E+12 2.4E+14
2.86E+17 2.48E+19 2.16E+21 1.88E+23 1.64E+25 1.42E+27 52649.8 4580532 4E+08 3.5E+10 3E+12 2.6E+14
3.16E+17 2.79E+19 2.45E+21 2.16E+23 1.9E+25 1.67E+27 54941.9 4834889 4.3E+08 3.7E+10 3.3E+12 2.9E+14
3.5E+17 3.12E+19 2.78E+21 2.47E+23 2.2E+25 2E+27 56099.4 4992844 4.4E+08 4E+10 3.5E+12 3.1E+14
3.87E+17 3.49E+19 3.14E+21 2.82E+23 2.54E+25 2.29E+27 58392.9 5255361 4.7E+08 4.3E+10 3.8E+12 3.4E+14
4.28E+17 3.89E+19 3.54E+21 3.22E+23 2.93E+25 2.67E+27 59845.2 5445917 5E+08 4.5E+10 4.1E+12 3.7E+14
4.72E+17 4.34E+19 4E+21 3.68E+23 3.38E+25 3.11E+27 62681.4 5766692 5.3E+08 4.9E+10 4.5E+12 4.1E+14
5.2E+17 4.84E+19 4.5E+21 4.19E+23 3.89E+25 3.62E+27 64345.8 5984157 5.6E+08 5.2E+10 4.8E+12 4.5E+14
5.73E+17 5.39E+19 5.06E+21 4.76E+23 4.47E+25 4.21E+27 65642.1 6170356 5.8E+08 5.5E+10 5.1E+12 4.8E+14
6.3E+17 6E+19 5.69E+21 5.4E+23 5.13E+25 4.88E+27 66113.4 6280768 6E+08 5.7E+10 5.4E+12 5.1E+14
6.93E+17 6.65E+19 6.38E+21 6.13E+23 5.88E+25 5.65E+27 67418.9 6472212 6.2E+08 6E+10 5.7E+12 5.5E+14
7.6E+17 7.37E+19 7.15E+21 6.94E+23 6.73E+25 6.53E+27 66865 6485906 6.3E+08 6.1E+10 5.9E+12 5.7E+14
8.34E+17 8.17E+19 8E+21 7.85E+23 7.69E+25 7.54E+27 66994.8 6565486 6.4E+08 6.3E+10 6.2E+12 6.1E+14
9.14E+17 9E+19 9E+21 8.86E+23 8.78E+25 8.69E+27 67721 6704374 6.6E+08 6.6E+10 6.5E+12 6.4E+14
1E+018 1E+020 1E+022 1E+024 1E+026 1E+028 68200 6820000 6.8E+08 6.8E+10 6.8E+12 6.8E+14
1.09E+18 1.1E+20 1.12E+22 1.13E+24 1.14E+26 1.15E+28 68600.2 6928621 7E+08 7.1E+10 7.1E+12 7.2E+14
1.2E+18 1.22E+20 1.24E+22 1.27E+24 1.29E+26 1.32E+28 68606.2 6997834 7.1E+08 7.3E+10 7.4E+12 7.6E+14
1.3E+18 1.34E+20 1.38E+22 1.43E+24 1.47E+26 1.51E+28 68897.7 7096466 7.3E+08 7.5E+10 7.8E+12 8E+14
1.42E+18 1.48E+20 1.54E+22 1.6E+24 1.67E+26 1.73E+28 69115.3 7187989 7.5E+08 7.8E+10 8.1E+12 8.4E+14
1.55E+18 1.63E+20 1.71E+22 1.8E+24 1.89E+26 2E+28 69733.7 7322033 7.7E+08 8.1E+10 8.5E+12 8.9E+14
1.69E+18 1.79E+20 1.9E+22 2E+24 2.13E+26 2.26E+28 69390.8 7355423 7.8E+08 8.3E+10 8.8E+12 9.3E+14
1.84E+18 2E+20 2.1E+22 2.25E+24 2.41E+26 2.58E+28 68638.4 7344305 7.9E+08 8.4E+10 9E+12 9.6E+14
2E+18 2.16E+20 2.33E+22 2.52E+24 2.72E+26 2.94E+28 69215 7475224 8.1E+08 8.7E+10 9.4E+12 1E+15
2.17E+18 2.37E+20 2.58E+22 2.81E+24 3.07E+26 3.34E+28 71045.1 7743917 8.4E+08 9.2E+10 1E+13 1.1E+15
2.36E+18 2.59E+20 2.85E+22 3.14E+24 3.45E+26 3.8E+28 72513.1 7976441 8.8E+08 9.7E+10 1.1E+13 1.2E+15
2.56E+18 2.84E+20 3.15E+22 3.5E+24 3.88E+26 4.31E+28 73402.1 8147631 9E+08 1E+11 1.1E+13 1.2E+15
2.77E+18 3.11E+20 3.48E+22 3.9E+24 4.36E+26 4.89E+28 74192.2 8309522 9.3E+08 1E+11 1.2E+13 1.3E+15
3E+18 3.39E+20 3.84E+22 4.33E+24 4.9E+26 5.53E+28 75298.7 8508751 9.6E+08 1.1E+11 1.2E+13 1.4E+15
3.25E+18 3.71E+20 4.23E+22 4.82E+24 5.49E+26 6.26E+28 75896.6 8652217 9.9E+08 1.1E+11 1.3E+13 1.5E+15
3.52E+18 4E+20 4.65E+22 5.35E+24 6.15E+26 7.08E+28 76884.4 8841706 1E+09 1.2E+11 1.3E+13 1.5E+15
3.8E+18 4.41E+20 5.12E+22 5.94E+24 6.89E+26 8E+28 77237.4 8959543 1E+09 1.2E+11 1.4E+13 1.6E+15
4.11E+18 4.81E+20 5.62E+22 6.58E+24 7.7E+26 9E+28 77870.5 9110851 1.1E+09 1.2E+11 1.5E+13 1.7E+15
4.44E+18 5.23E+20 6.18E+22 7.29E+24 8.6E+26 1E+29 78333.1 9243308 1.1E+09 1.3E+11 1.5E+13 1.8E+15
4.79E+18 5.69E+20 6.78E+22 8.06E+24 9.6E+26 1.14E+29 78923.2 9391858 1.1E+09 1.3E+11 1.6E+13 1.9E+15
5.16E+18 6.19E+20 7.43E+22 8.92E+24 1.07E+27 1.28E+29 79660.8 9559296 1.1E+09 1.4E+11 1.7E+13 2E+15
6.45E+19 7.07E+21 7.81E+23 8.68E+25 9.72E+27 1.09E+30 3745073 3.32E+08 3.18E+10 3.17E+12 3.26E+14 3.41E+16
t9 t10 t11 t12 t13 t14 tXt t2Xt t3Xt t4Xt t5Xt t6Xt

51845.15
3745073
3.32E+08 #REF!
3.18E+10
3.17E+12
3.26E+14
3.41E+16
3.63E+18

51845.15
3745073
3.32E+08
3.18E+10
3.17E+12
3.26E+14
3.41E+16
3.63E+18
t7Xt Tt et et2 At 800
311.79 307.3901 4.39990032 19.3591228 1.01431373 700
39909.1 310.809892 0.98010845 0.96061258 1.0031534
681885 312.640393 -0.85039315 0.72316852 0.99727996 600
5108367 313.188825 -1.39882472 1.95671061 0.99553361 500
2.4E+07 312.72558 -0.93558037 0.87531063 0.9970083
400
8.7E+07 311.487039 -2.43703918 5.93915997 0.99217611
2.5E+08 309.678252 -0.62825155 0.39470002 0.99797128 300
6.3E+08 307.475503 -8.35550334 69.8144361 0.97282547
200
1.5E+09 305.02876 5.7712398 33.3072088 1.01892031
3.1E+09 302.463995 7.87600535 62.0314602 1.02603948 100
5.6E+09 299.885398 -11.0353984 121.780017 0.96320128
0
1E+10 297.377482 -8.52748215 72.7179518 0.97132439
1 8 1 5 22 2 9 36 43 50 57 6 4 71 7 8 8 5 92
1.8E+10 295.007066 -6.15706591 37.9094607 0.97912909
3.1E+10 292.825162 -2.75516156 7.59091521 0.9905911
5E+10 290.868751 2.41124929 5.81412313 1.00828982
8E+10 289.16246 7.26753981 52.8171349 1.02513307 150
1.2E+11 287.720137 8.32986253 69.3866098 1.02895127
1.8E+11 286.546329 3.20367126 10.2635095 1.01118029
100
2.6E+11 285.637662 3.46233806 11.9877848 1.01212143
3.7E+11 284.984137 5.48586266 30.0946892 1.01924971
50
5.2E+11 284.570328 3.49967196 12.2477038 1.01229809
7.2E+11 284.376493 3.54350699 12.5564418 1.01246062
9.8E+11 284.379605 3.54039502 12.5343969 1.01244954 0
1 8 15 2 2 2 9 3 6 4 3 5 0 57 64 7 1 7 8 8 5 92 99 0 6 1 3
1.3E+12 284.554296 3.3657042 11.3279647 1.01182799 1 1
1.8E+12 284.873722 2.76627832 7.65229573 1.00971054 -50
2.3E+12 285.310351 0.95964922 0.92092662 1.00336353
3E+12 285.836676 2.57332432 6.62199804 1.00900278 -100
3.9E+12 286.425853 5.06414685 25.6455833 1.01768048
5E+12 287.052274 4.89772625 23.9877225 1.01706214 -150
6.3E+12 287.692064 -0.02206368 0.00048681 0.99992331
7.9E+12 288.323521 0.02647855 0.00070111 1.00009184
9.8E+12 288.927492 -4.79749173 23.0159269 0.98339552
1.2E+13 289.487679 -2.84767893 8.1092753 0.99016304
1.5E+13 289.990903 -3.65090303 13.329093 0.98741028
1.9E+13 290.4273 -1.03730002 1.07599133 0.99642837
2.2E+13 290.79047 -7.78046951 60.5357058 0.97324373
2.7E+13 291.077572 -11.857572 140.602014 0.95926319
3.2E+13 291.289378 -12.0693783 145.669893 0.95856568
3.8E+13 291.430273 -12.2102734 149.090776 0.95810225
4.6E+13 291.508217 -8.28821736 68.694547 0.97156781
5.5E+13 291.534666 -10.3746663 107.6337 0.96441361
6.5E+13 291.524454 -10.3644545 107.421917 0.96444739
7.7E+13 291.495642 -8.4556418 71.4978783 0.97099222
8.9E+13 291.469328 -12.4293276 154.488185 0.95735631
1.1E+14 291.469434 -10.4294344 108.773102 0.96421774
1.2E+14 291.522463 -8.44246308 71.2751828 0.97104009
1.5E+14 291.657223 -0.50722313 0.2572753 0.99826089
1.7E+14 291.904539 1.32546085 1.75684647 1.00454073
2E+14 292.296937 0.60306288 0.36368484 1.00206319
2.3E+14 292.868312 1.19168763 1.4201194 1.00406902
2.7E+14 293.653582 11.5664181 133.782027 1.03938797
3.1E+14 294.688324 11.1216764 123.691685 1.03774047
3.6E+14 296.008405 12.8015955 163.880846 1.04324741
4.2E+14 297.649601 14.4603988 209.103134 1.04858195
4.9E+14 299.647214 20.762786 431.093284 1.06929077
5.6E+14 302.035678 23.0843218 532.885912 1.07642912
6.4E+14 304.848175 21.2218253 450.365868 1.06961441
7.3E+14 308.116242 24.6337584 606.822053 1.07994956
8.4E+14 311.869391 27.2006095 739.873156 1.08721795
9.6E+14 316.13473 25.7552704 663.333954 1.08146929
1.1E+15 320.936595 24.7034048 610.258211 1.07697285
1.2E+15 326.296195 20.8438046 434.464188 1.06388001
1.4E+15 332.231268 18.7187319 350.390926 1.05634248
1.6E+15 338.755754 13.7542459 189.179279 1.04060225
1.7E+15 345.879492 10.8805084 118.385463 1.03145751
1.9E+15 353.60793 2.28207037 5.20784518 1.00645367
2.1E+15 361.941868 -7.3018675 53.317269 0.97982586
2.4E+15 370.87722 -15.0372196 226.117973 0.95945499
2.7E+15 380.404809 -23.2548094 540.786161 0.93886826
3E+15 390.510195 -31.0501952 964.11462 0.92048813
3.3E+15 401.173529 -40.463529 1637.29718 0.89913709
3.6E+15 412.369453 -51.9694527 2700.82402 0.87397356
4E+15 424.067033 -66.0370326 4360.88967 0.8442769
4.4E+15 436.229735 -76.729735 5887.45223 0.82410705
4.9E+15 448.815446 -83.9154462 7041.80211 0.81302906
5.6E+15 461.776539 -81.1865386 6591.25405 0.82418652
6.3E+15 475.059985 -81.1399851 6583.69718 0.82920055
8.1E+15 488.607526 -29.8675255 892.06908 0.93887215
1.1E+16 502.355886 45.2241139 2045.22048 1.09002405
1.3E+16 516.237056 111.002944 12321.6537 1.2150232
1.4E+16 530.17862 96.6113804 9333.75882 1.18222421
1.5E+16 544.104157 74.6258431 5569.01646 1.1371536
1.7E+16 557.933698 53.5763018 2870.42012 1.09602629
1.8E+16 571.584252 32.6157479 1063.78701 1.05706201
1.9E+16 584.970399 18.9996008 360.984832 1.03247959
2.1E+16 598.004957 5.08504302 25.8576625 1.00850335
2.3E+16 610.599719 -5.42971898 29.4818482 0.99110756
2.6E+16 622.666269 1.67373081 2.80137481 1.00268801
2.8E+16 634.116876 -3.78687552 14.3404262 0.99402811
3.1E+16 644.865464 3.94453601 15.5593643 1.00611684
3.4E+16 654.828676 2.81132352 7.90353994 1.00429322
3.8E+16 663.927014 17.3929856 302.515949 1.02619714
4.2E+16 672.086071 19.8039294 392.195618 1.02946636
4.5E+16 679.237853 19.0821472 364.128342 1.02809347
4.9E+16 685.322199 10.6078007 112.525436 1.01547856
5.3E+16 690.288292 11.9917083 143.801069 1.01737203
5.6E+16 694.096265 -4.76626512 22.7172832 0.99313314
5.9E+16 696.71892 -13.0989199 171.581702 0.98119913
6.4E+16 698.143536 -14.0935358 198.627751 0.97981284
6.8E+16 698.373793 -16.3737927 268.101088 0.9765544
7.3E+16 697.431799 -18.2217993 332.033968 0.973873
7.7E+16 695.360232 -22.750232 517.573057 0.96728281
8.2E+16 692.224588 -23.3145883 543.570027 0.96631933
8.7E+16 688.115554 -23.5455542 554.393123 0.96578256
9.3E+16 683.151491 -19.0214913 361.817131 0.97215626
9.8E+16 677.481043 -22.8510433 522.170182 0.96627058
1E+17 671.285867 -29.8058667 888.389692 0.95559885
1.1E+17 664.783486 -23.9034861 571.376648 0.9640432
1.2E+17 658.230278 -6.4402782 41.4771833 0.99021577
1.3E+17 651.924586 7.28541369 53.0772526 1.01117524
1.4E+17 646.209968 15.0700324 227.105876 1.02332064
1.5E+17 641.478576 20.9514239 438.962162 1.03266114
1.6E+17 638.174684 28.1853164 794.412059 1.04416552
1.7E+17 636.798341 28.961659 838.777694 1.04548011
1.8E+17 637.909182 30.6508176 939.472618 1.04804887
1.9E+17 642.130375 23.7096245 562.146295 1.03692338
2E+17 650.152718 15.4072817 237.384329 1.02369794
2.1E+17 662.738888 1.10111205 1.21244775 1.00166146
2.2E+17 680.727841 -17.5078411 306.524499 0.9742807
2.4E+17 705.03937 -41.1993702 1697.3881 0.94156444
3.63E+18 91272.815
t7Xt
 xt
Tt

2 9 36 43 50 57 6 4 71 7 8 8 5 92 9 9 1 0 6 1 1 3 12 0

Column V
4 3 5 0 57 64 7 1 7 8 8 5 92 99 10 6 11 3 12 0
 1 311.79
2 311.79
3 311.79
4 311.79
5 311.79
6 309.05
7 309.05
8 299.12
9 310.8
10 310.34
11 288.85
12 288.85
13 288.85
14 290.07
15 293.28
16 296.43
17 296.05
18 289.75
19 289.1
20 290.47
21 288.07
22 287.92
23 287.92
24 287.92
25 287.64
26 286.27
27 288.41
28 291.49
29 291.95
30 287.67
31 288.35
32 284.13
33 286.64
34 286.34
35 289.39
36 283.01
37 279.22
38 279.22
39 279.22
40 283.22
41 281.16
42 281.16
43 283.04
44 279.04
45 281.04
46 283.08
47 291.15
48 293.23
49 292.9
50 294.06
51 305.22
52 305.81
53 308.81
54 312.11
55 320.41
56 325.12
57 326.07
58 332.75
59 339.07
60 341.89
61 345.64
62 347.14
63 350.95
64 352.51
65 356.76
66 355.89
67 354.64
68 355.84
69 357.15
70 359.46
71 360.71
72 360.4
73 358.03
74 359.5
75 364.9
76 380.59
77 393.92
78 458.74
79 547.58
80 627.24
81 626.79
82 618.73
83 611.51
84 604.2
85 603.97
86 603.09
87 605.17
88 624.34
89 630.33
 90 648.81
91 657.64
92 681.32
93 691.89
94 698.32
95 695.93
96 702.28
97 689.33
98 683.62
99 684.05
100 682
101 679.21
102 672.61
103 668.91
104 664.57
105 664.13
106 654.63
107 641.48
108 640.88
109 651.79
110 659.21
111 661.28
112 662.43
113 666.36
114 665.76
115 668.56
116 665.84
117 665.56
118 663.84
119 663.22
120 663.84